Thomas Allen
ECON 310
Are Quarterbacks Overvalued in 2QB Fantasy Football Leagues?
Introduction
Four weeks into a 10-team, 2QB fantasy football league season, a disagreement
arose over the value of quarterbacks relative to other skill positions. Strong beliefs about
quarterback scarcity often influence draft and trade decisions, and I initially shared these
beliefs. This paper evaluates whether such confidence is justified using thirteen weeks of
fantasy performance from the same season. Fantasy football drafts resemble prediction
markets, where managers bet on which players are expected to generate the most points
at each position. In 2QB leagues, quarterback scarcity often leads managers to select
them earlier than in standard leagues. This raises the question: are quarterbacks in 2QB
leagues overvalued in drafts due to positional scarcity?
Background
This analysis focuses on a fantasy football league in which each team starts two
quarterbacks, creating scarcity at the quarterback position. Twenty quarterbacks must be
started each week from a pool of 32 NFL teams, while positions such as wide receiver and
running back, despite having more starting spots per team, face a larger pool of available
players, reducing relative scarcity. The league uses a standard snake draft format, in which
draft position reflects manager expectations for player performance: earlier picks are
expected to score more points.
Data
Data for this analysis were collected from league results as well as a mock draft
compiled from several leading fantasy sports outlets. 377 players were included in the
sample size, encompassing nearly all draft picks and transactions. Players with minimal
point totals were excluded. The key variables used in the analysis included in Table 1 are:
Table 1. Key variables
Variable
Measures
Use
drafted_pick
Order drafted
Predictor
QB
1 = quarterback, 0 = other
Predictor & Interaction
points_per_week
Average points per week
Outcome
drafted_pick x QB
Interaction term
Checks if effect differs for QBs
As an example, a quarterback drafted 4th overall may not earn more points per
week than a running back drafted 11th, even though he was selected earlier because of
scarcity at the quarterback position.
Thomas Allen
ECON 310
Empirical Strategy
To study whether quarterbacks are overvalued in 2QB leagues, I use two models.
The first is a simple regression (OLS) that examines how draft position relates to points
per week and whether that relationship differs for quarterbacks:
𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠_𝑝𝑒𝑟_𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑖 = β0 + β1𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑑_𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑖 + β2𝑄𝐵𝑖 + β3(𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑑_𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑖 × 𝑄𝐵𝑖) + ε𝑖
This approach examines whether quarterbacks earn fewer points per week than similarly
drafted players at other positions. The second approach uses a regression discontinuity design
(RDD) to focus on the top-20 quarterback cutoff, comparing players drafted just inside versus
just outside this threshold to isolate the effect of scarcity at the margin.
Results
Table 2. OLS Results: Average Points per Week by Draft Position and Quarterback Status
Variable
Estimate
Standard Error
Significance
(Intercept)
13.51
0.73
***
drafted_pick
-0.049
0.007
***
QB
0.60
1.65
drafted_pick x QB
0.036
0.019
•
The OLS regression indicates that players drafted earlier earn more points per
week (drafted_pick = −0.049, p < 0.001). Once draft position is accounted for,
quarterbacks do not score significantly more points than other positions (QB = 0.60, p =
0.71). The interaction term provides weak evidence that points decline more slowly with
later draft positions for quarterbacks than for other positions (drafted_pick × QB = 0.036,
p = 0.056). For example, among players chosen later in the draft, quarterbacks tend to
score slightly more points per week than non-quarterbacks selected at similar draft
positions, though the difference is small. Overall, draft order strongly predicts
performance, while quarterback status offers no clear advantage.
​
While OLS captures the general relationship between draft position and weekly
points, it does not isolate the effect of QB scarcity at the margin. To address this, the
regression discontinuity design focuses on players drafted just inside versus just outside
the top-20 QB cutoff, and investigates whether or not those inside the cutoff perform
better than those drafted immediately after.
Table 3. Regression Discontinuity Results: Points per Week Around the Top-20 Quarterback Cutoff
RD Effect
Estimate
Robust z
P-value
95% CI
Points per week
4.717
0.329
0.742
[-22.174, 31.119]
Thomas Allen
ECON 310
The estimated effect is small and statistically insignificant (4.7 points per week, p
= 0.742), with a wide confidence interval reflecting high variability in quarterback
performance near the top-20 cutoff. While the interval technically extends to extremely
negative values, these scores are practically impossible in a single week. This uncertainty
indicates substantial variability in quarterback performance near the top-20 cutoff.
Limitations
As the sample consists of a single league and season, and the small number of
quarterbacks, particularly around the top 20 cutoff, limits statistical power, this makes the
RDD estimates imprecise and sensitive to noise in manager draft expectations. In
addition, unobserved factors such as player injuries, weekly matchups, weather conditions,
and random performance variation likely affect weekly scoring but are not captured in the
data. As a result, estimated effects are uncertain and confidence intervals are wide.
Conclusion
This analysis finds that quarterbacks in 2QB leagues are not inherently more productive
than similarly drafted running backs or wide receivers. Draft position strongly predicts weekly
points, but quarterback status adds no statistically significant advantage once draft order is
accounted for. In 2QB leagues, teams must start two quarterbacks each week, so selecting two
reliable quarterbacks early is often necessary to field a competitive lineup. This creates
mechanical scarcity: managers are required to draft quarterbacks, which raises their draft
position relative to other positions. However, this does not imply that quarterbacks score more
points than comparably drafted running backs or wide receivers, nor does early quarterback
selection provide a statistical guarantee of superior weekly output.
While early quarterback selection may be necessary in 2QB leagues for roster
construction reasons, it should not be interpreted as evidence that quarterbacks inherently
produce more points than other positions. Recognizing this distinction helps clarify the tradeoff
between positional necessity and point production when allocating draft capital.