(2) Trade under Increasing Cost 43 | P a g e 44 | P a g e 1- Trade under Increasing Cost Condition: (1) The production possibility curve with increasing opportunity Cost supply side. It is more realistic for a nation to face increasing cost rather than constant opportunity Cost. Increasing opportunity Cost mean that the nation must give up more and more of one commodity to get one more unit from another commodity. The PPC will be concave from the origin (rather than a straight line). U.S U.K C C 6 5 50 47 40 4 3 D C B A 30 5 6 7 8 U.S must give up more and more of (C) to get one more unit of (W) 45 | P a g e w 55 758590 U.K must give up more and more of (W) to get one more unit of (C) w The difference in the shape of PPC due to: (1) Difference in factor endowments. (2) Use different technology in production. (2) The community Demand side: indifference curves The tastes or preference are given by community (or social) indifference curves. A community indifference curves show the various combinations of two commodities that give the community or a nation the same level of satisfaction. C I I I C I I I W W This nation is more favor This nation is more favor for cloth for wheat The higher curves refer to greater satisfaction. 46 | P a g e (3) Equilibrium in isolation: Before trade We will now see how the interaction between the demand forces (indifference curves) and supply side (ppc) determines the equilibrium point. (Point of maximum social welfare in a nation). A nation is in equilibrium when it reaches the highest indifference curve possible given its ppc. This occurs when the ppc is tangent to the highest indifference curve. The common slop of the two curves at tangency point gives the internal equilibrium ( relative price ) in the nation and reflects the nations comparative advantage. U.S U.K C Internal A P A Internal rate rate P A A / W 47 | P a g e W Note: 1. The smaller the slope of the PA (the flatter the relative price line), the more the nation has a comparative advantage in the production of the commodity on horizontal axis (w) in U.S. 2. The higher the slope of the PA (steeper the relative price line) the more nation has a comparative advantage in the production of the commodity on the vertical axis (c) in U.K. PA < PA in Isolation U.S has s comparative advantage in wheat and will specialize in wheat. U.K has a comparative advantage in cloth and will specialize in cloth. 48 | P a g e After Trade Specialization is not complete (incomplete), because as each nation specializes in producing the commodity of its comparative advantage it incurs increasing costs. The difference in relative price (internal rate) between the 2 nations is reflection of their comparative adv and form the basis for beneficial trade. U.S specialize in W and moves from point (A) down to point (B). Therefore, there is incomplete specialization. 49 | P a g e U.K specialize in C and move from point A up to point (B). Therefore, there is incomplete specialization. In this case, the nation have the different factors endowments (different ppc) and have different tastes (different indifference curve(. So trade is possible The gains from trade: It is measured in terms of consumption Consumption after trade – Consumption before trade. U.S Gains in wheat OM - OL = LM Gains in cloth OP - ON = NP U.K Gains in wheat OM - OL = LM Gains in cloth OP ON = NP - Trade triangle: U.S ECB 50 | P a g e U.K E/C/B Ex: Draw identical ppc under constant opportunity Costs condition for two nations (N1, N2). Assume different community indifference curves for N1, N2 1. Indicate the equilibrium in isolation for N1, N2. 2. Do you think a mutually beneficial can take place between N1, N2 why or why not? C Equilibrium before trade N1 Equilibrium before trade N2 W (1) N1 : produce and consumes at point A before trade. N2: produce and consumes at point B before trade. (2) Mutually beneficial trade cannot take place between N1 and N2 under constant cost since the relative prices (opp. Cost) are the same for both nations. 51 | P a g e 2- Trade based on differences in tastes: With increasing costs, even if the two nations have identical ppc. There will still be a basis for mutually beneficial trade if tastes or demand preferences in the two nation are different. The nation with relatively smaller demand or preference for a commodity will have a lower relative price for that product and has comparative adv in that product. E Consumption PT after trade A in U.S U.S C Exports Exports P A Imports C C B = Production PT after trade B/ Imports A E Consumption PT after trade in U.K U.K P A 52 | P a g e W U.S Is less preference to wheat so, it has lower price for (w) and has comparative advantage in (w). However, it is more preference to cloth so, it has higher price for (C) and has comparative disadvantage in (c). U.K Is less preference to cloth so, it has lower price for (c) and has comparative advantage in (c). However, it is more preference to wheat so, it has higher price for (w) and has comparative disadvantage in (w). Before Trade U.S Produce and consume at point (A) (equilibrium point) U.K Produce and consume at point (A/) (equilibrium point) The internal exchange rate: Relative price of wheat In U.S: PA is flatter so, it has comparative advantage in (w) In U.K: PA is steeper so, it has comparative advantage in (c) 53 | P a g e After Trade U.S Specializes in wheat and produce at point B U.K Specializes in cloth and produce at point B/. Note: The production point is the same in both nation, because they have the same ppc. By exchanging (w) for (C) with each other: U.S End up consume at E more consumption of w and (c) gains higher indifference curve. U.K End up consume at E more consumption of w and (c) gains higher indifference curve. Trade Triangle: For U.S ECB for U.K E/ C/ B/ Exports of U.S (CB) = Imports of U.K (C/ E/) Imports of U.S (CE) = Exports of U.K (C/ B/) In this case, the two nations have the same factor endowment (identical PPC) but have different tastes (different indifference curve). So they have different relative prices and trade between them is possible. 54 | P a g e 3- Trade based on the difference in PPC: In the case of increasing opportunity Cost, even if the two nation have the same demand condition (have the same tastes or preference), trade can be beneficial if the supply side (ppc) is different in both nation. Cloth P* Exports U.K P/A B/ Import C s Imports E=E/ C II A PA I B Exports U.S Wheat When the two nations have the same demand condition, this means they have the same indifference curve. 55 | P a g e When the two nations have different supply condition, this means that they have different shape for PPC. Note: The difference in the shape of PPC may be due to: (1) The difference in the technology level. (2) The difference in factor endowment. (3) (1) and (2). Before Trade U.S Is more efficient in the production of wheat than U.K so, it has comparative advantage in wheat. U.K Is more efficient in the production of cloth than U.S so, it has comparative advantage in cloth. (1) The Equilibrium Point: U.S Produce and consume at point A. U.K Produce and consume at point A/. 56 | P a g e (2) The internal exchange rate: U.S PA is flatter. Therefore, it reflects a lower price for wheat. Therefore, U.S has comparative advantage in (W). U.K PA is steeper. Therefore, it reflects a higher price for wheat. Therefore, U.K has comparative advantage in (C). Therefore, the difference in supply conditions make the relative prices different in both nation. After Trade: [1] The international exchange rate must be between the two internal exchange rate (P*). It is steeper then PA and flatter than PA. [2] Production and Consumption points: U.S Will specialize incompletely in wheat production point = B, Consumption point = E U.K Will specialize incompletely in cloth production point = B/, Consumption point = E/ Note: The consumption point is the same because the two nation have the same tastes. 57 | P a g e [3] The gains from trade: For U.S It moves from point A Point E on the higher indifference curve. This means the higher satisfaction level (gains). For U.K It moves from point A point E/ on the higher indifference curve. This means the higher satisfaction level (gains). For U.K It moves from point A point E/ on the higher indifference curve. This means the higher satisfaction level. (gains). Trade Triangle: For U.S exports = CB , Imports = CE , Trade triangle CBE For U.K exports = C/B/, Imports = C/E/ , Trade triangle C/B/E/ In the case of two nations the: exports of U.S (CB) = imports of U.K (C/E/) imports of U.S (CE) = Exports of U.K (C/ B/) In this case, the 2 nation have different ppc, but have the same tastes (same I.C). so, the relative price is different and trade is possible. 58 | P a g e 4-The gains from substitution and the gains from specialization: The gains from trade = gains from substitution + gains from specialization. C P2 U.S International exchange rate P/2 Has comparative advantage in wheat B 70 F 60 50 C A E 70 90 110 180 A = Production and consumption before trade. E = Production after trade. B = Consumption after trade. 59 | P a g e W Until now our analysis was static, where we assume that production side will react immediately which is not true because production needs time to change. also we assume that consumption will increase after trade from A to B which is not true because such point are possible after long period of time. So, we will study the behavior of production and consumption through time. This called dynamic analysis. I- The gains from substitution: (1) In the case of free trade, the consumption will react faster than the production to change in prices. So, we assume in the short-run the change in welfare will due to the change in consumption and the gains in short-run come from the substitution effect. (2) To show the gains from substitution. We draw a parallel line P2 to P2 (international price) passing through point (A). This means that the production of wheat and cloth did not change and what changed only is relative price of w and c. 60 | P a g e (3) The new international price p2 means that the international price of wheat will be higher than the domestic price. So, the U.S consumers will decrease their consumption of wheat from A C (excess supply of w). And the international price of cloth will be lower than the domestic price. So, the consumers will increase their consumption of cloth from C F (excess demand for c). (4) They can export the excess supply of (w) and import the excess demand for (c). So, the trade triangle in the short – run is (ACF) exports = AC imports = CF (5) The gains from substitution is reflected by moving from point A point F. the nation moves from indifference curve to higher I.C. this means higher level of satisfaction (gains). So The trade is possible in short-run even if the production side is inaction 61 | P a g e Assignment (3) Study the following graph P* y P1 E A B = B/ C C E A P2 X (1) Determine the equilibrium point of consumption and production before trade in both nations. (2) Determine the production and consumption points in both nation after trade. (3) Determine exports and imports of N1. (4) Determine exports and imports of N2. (5) Do you agree that P reflects a higher price for X than the internal price in N1? (6) Do you agree that P reflects a lower price for y than the internal price of N2? And why? (7) Do you agree that CB equals CB and CE equals CE and why? (8) Determine the gains from trade for both nation. 62 | P a g e