Credits to Romeo, ICT and everything in between. Romeo: https://www.youtube.com/@Romeospeculat es ICT: https://www.youtube.com/@InnerCircleTrad er ICT Gems: https://www.youtube.com/@ictgems1102 ICT Time and Price Indicator (Free): https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/1 15495 TIME & TURTLE SOUP Divisions of Time: • OHLC / OLHC • IPDA Data Ranges • Time Cycles • Important Dates 2 Theories of Candle Division 3 parts 4 parts 2 Fixed Values 2 Moving Values OC HL There’s a: Fixed Opening Fixed Midpoint Fixed Closing Time Time Time You’re trading a Higher Timeframe Candle with this premise in mind Fixed Midpoint Time Because you “The HOD/LOD Why? until New York” might expect a trending candle in a ranging candle. You’re expecting Expansion but you got more Accumulation The markets spend 70% of the time Accumulating The goal is to participate in an Expansion of the HTF Once Monday’s Opening Price is in, 50% of the puzzle is solved. Try to predict the outcome of the Weekly Range. = OSOK IF Bearish: Enter above the Opening Price into the Previous High of the Previous Candle with a Higher Timeframe Key Level. “Price Levels are useless until TIME is considered and time is of no use unless PRICE is at a Key Level” If we’re Bullish and the Previous candle was engulfed by the next candle but it didn’t closed below it, it’s still a continuation. HTF FVGs are LTF Swing Highs/Lows with orderblocks HTF LTF A refusal to close below the Swing Low that broke a High. A refusal to close above the Swing High that broke a Low. Watch if it closed above/below or falsely closed above/below. It’s super important. How to Frame a Trade Idea 1. Draw on Liquidity 2. Potential Entry Points you see 3. Point in Price that’s highly unlikely to be reached before DOL (Invalidation) Divisions of a Candle For Daily, Weekly you For Monthly, you can can use 3 parts use 4 parts 3 Candle Formation You can choose 1 candle at a Key Level In a Bullish market, (clearly disrespecting Bearish PD Arrays) a Bearish candle is going to be engulfed by the next candle. In a Bearish market, a Bullish candle is anticipated to be engulfed by the next candle. Bullish Bearish Buy below Opening Sell above Opening Price into a Key Level Price into a Key Level Blend these on “How to Frame a Trade Idea” Bullish Bearish A range below the A range above the Opening Price Opening Price Wick Entry All OBs, BKRs, OTE, FVGs form below the OP when Bullish and above OP when Bearish. How can you make sure you’re really Buying at a Turtle Soup Low? 1. Wait for confirmation of a High being broken (Opening Price High, High that broke a Low) 2. Wait for the sections of the candle to play out Wait for Week 1 to accumulate, Week 2 to manipulate, in Week 3 you look for Buys. HTF – DOL LTF – Entry You can enter at 2 or 3 and ride it to the High of the candle that was Turtle Souped (1). When Bearish, above the Opening Price you’re expecting (of the candle you’re trying to trade) a range to form and then a change in the state of delivery (whether it’s breaking a Low, closing below an up-closed candle, etc.) Range above OP – CSD – Move Lover If Bullish, Range below OP – CSD – Rally Monthly Power of 3 We wait for the first Quarter which is why we skip Monday. Which is why we skip the first “half of the hour”. Which is why: -9:30 not 9:00 -The Judas comes at 2:00 not 00:00 -We wait for Week 2 -We use Week 3 as a continuation of the reversal that happened on Week 2 You can be done by Week 3. Look for a 3-candle formation to play. For Long Term Trading: Catch it from Week 2 or Week 3 and hold it for a Long-Term Swing High or Swing Low. Once we have manipulated, and we’re drawing towards a certain point, look for Buys until that point. Where? At Key Levels. (50%, OB, FVG, etc.) That only happens, after the Manipulation. During the Distribution. You can Buy at the manipulation phase. You’re trusting this Low formed during that certain time to hold. Whether it’s: Week 2 Tuesday London That’s why a good way to put your SL is at: Week 2 High/Low Tuesday High/Low London High/Low The concept of “The High of the candle until midpoint of the candle” “I’m going to catch the High till New York” “I’m going to catch the High of the Week till Thursday/Wednesday” “I’m going to catch the Low of the Day till 9:00” LOD/HOD until the 50% of the duration of the candle 3 Candle Formation -Take a Higher Timeframe candle -Look for a range to form at the Low of the candle that was taken out -Trade it up to the High of the candle 3 Candle Formation on LTF We’re below Opening Price. We never bottomed out till the manipulation phase which is Week 2. There’s always an Opening Range of a candle. Sometimes more depending on the Average Range of the candles. Or the amount of pips or points it’s going into a Judas. If you want to measure a Judas in a Thursday, you can reference it on the Judas that happened on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday. A Timed Range We’re looking for a Thick, High-volume Candle at the end of the range and in that range, you’re looking for a range to form on the Lower Timeframe. The range on the LTF, you’re blending it with the range on the HTF. Look for a Lower Timeframe range, not on the accumulation phase but on the manipulation phase, beneath a Higher Timeframe range using the LTF’s Risk for the HTF’s reward. Keep in mind Orderflow, Narrative, Context, Bias If a candle is a range, look at the Low of a Higher Timeframe candle (which is also a range) for a range to form at a Low of the HTF candle. Look for a range to form below the Low of the Previous HTF candle on the LTF. Look for a range to form above the High of the Previous HTF candle on the LTF. A good practice would be targeting the 50% of the candle and then the opposing Liquidity. “Specialists always have more value than General Practitioners” Model 1 Look for a LTF range above a HTF candle on a specific time (Week 2, Tuesday, London, etc.) Model 2 3 candle formation with a target of 50% and then the opposing Liquidity Every single Buy when you’re Bullish should be below the Opening Price of the candle you are trying to anticipate. All goes back to: OP – Range below OP – Back to OP – Flip of OP (BKR) – Rally Week 4 would likely be a chopfest. Stick to W1, W2, W3 unless we are expecting a HTF ranging candle. What happens when you have a ranging Monthly candle? For example: -We have a range on the 4H on Week 1 -Week 2 also ranging and hit Week 1’s High leaving REL ▪ Going above the OP ▪ Leaving Equal Lows in Week 1 ▪ Taking Week 1’s High during Week 2 (The time designated for manipulation) ▪ Distributing or in Week 3 -Week 3 we look for Sells to the Equal Lows Weekly Power of 3 When we close above or below a candle, it indicates a continuation (of the candle direction) When we wick but don’t close, it indicates a reaction either for a reversal or a retracement Candles are ranges: Broken Truly, Broken Falsely One of the Highest Probability models: Taking Old Liquidity to a Recent Liquidity We look for Buys until we hit the High of the candle that took Liquidity. Look for a range beneath a Low or above a High. Don’t force a range. A true range will present itself to you. Monday’s Range Model As soon as it broke a High, the bottom is In. We also didn’t break a Swing High up until this point. -Let Monday play out -Wait for confirmation at Tuesday (3:00 would be a better time to enter because the manipulation starts at 2:00. A Swing would form around 3:00. -2:50 to 3:10-) -Ride it until 50% of Monday’s Range or Monday’s Range High Same applies to Asian Range Every Buy is below the Week’s Opening Price Every Sell is above the Week’s Opening Price Blend it with Orderflow and Market Profile (Rejecting Highs, Breaking Lows; Rejecting Lows, Breaking Highs) What if Monday expands? You do nothing. What if it closes below the Low? Then it’s a real breakout. Candles are Ranges We are working inside this candle. That is the Bias. That is the DOL. A Purge on one side will lead us to the other side. If you reverse engineer your trades (especially your breakeven SLs) you’ll notice a lot of the mistakes come from not taking partials at 50% Don’t just work inside a random candle. It’s the candles that dig a Low or broke a High. (Monday’s, Week 1, Asian Range, etc.) Anatomy of the Daily Candle It’s divided into 2 ways: 00:00 12:00 06:00 18:00 4 6H candles 1 5 9 1 5 9 (13) (17) (21) 6 4H candles These frees you from the Killzone mentality. There’s a candle that opens at 1:00, 5:00, 9:00, 1:00, 5:00, 9:00. Why is 9:30 a Judas? Because 9:00 – 9:30 is Accumulation “If you look at the 4H candles and the 1H candles through a lens of PO3, then a whole new world opens to you.” -ICT MMXM Before taking out the original consolidation Low on the Sellside of the curve, there’s going to be a raid on an important High before collapsing. That can be a model by itself. 1:00am NYT 9:30am NYT Most rallies end in an engulfing candle in the direction of the rally. 1:00pm NYT The summary of this: -Open (Fixed Time) -Rally to Key Level -Decline to Opening Price A M D It’s not important to understand the pattern. It’s important to understand the logic of taking a High to the Low. -Breaking through “the candle” -Retesting “the candle” -Accelerating away from “the candle” Timing a range – Breaking into a Key Level – Decline Timing a range – Breaking into a Key Level – Rally One of the signs of a True Breakout: 1 – Sudden Move 2 – Fall Back In 3 – Acceleration What is a Rejection Block? -Orderblock with a Long Wick Some tools to call a Top/Low: -STDV -Fib Projection (1.618) -Closes vs Wicks -CSD at a certain Time The candle beside the Rejection Block is usually going to be taken. Not a healthy way to think. You might force it. How to predict that this will happen? SMT Why did it create Equal Lows? Because of SMT SMT = Rejection Block = Equal Lows Left How to trade a Rejection Block? -The same way you trade an SMT You wait for a change in the state of delivery which is a close above a Bearish candle on the LTF while violating a Bearish PD Array. -Close above a Bearish candle -Violating a Bearish PD Array (Swing High) Rejection Blocks on the HTF = Orderblocks on the LTF How do you trust a High/Low to hold? In a classic Sell candle, it’s a good idea that you put your stoploss on London Highs, Tuesday Highs, Week 2 Highs. Common Mistakes: ▪ Not backtesting enough ▪ Not forwardtesting enough ▪ Expecting a trending candle in a Ranging candle (take partials at important Highs/Lows and at 50%) and vice versa ▪ Shorting and Longing random Highs/Lows (Timed ranges, Asian range, Monday range, Week 1, etc.) ▪ Expecting a false breakout and getting surprised by a real breakout Checklist: ▪ HTF PD Array ▪ Open (Above it? Below it?) ▪ ADR ▪ STDV ▪ Premium/Discount ▪ High/Low ▪ Market Profile You can just take the: ▪ HTF PD Array ▪ Open ▪ Market Profile PRICE & TURTLE SOUP A Loss is an opportunity What are the Markets? Money Losing Machine 95% of traders Fail Journaling corrects mistakes and eliminates bad habits 1:21:50 Profile the Market Are we trending? Are we ranging? The chop is inside the Range Consolidation Expansion Consolidation Expansion 1:23:25 A chop on a Higher Timeframe is an Expansion on a Lower Timeframe. Chop – Range – Trend Size will tell you if it’s in a Consolidation or Expansion. (candle body) 1:28:30 Classic 3 trades per candle 1:32:45 If it fails at one timeframe, go to a Higher Timeframe 15M PDA failed > Go to 1H PDA 1:36:00 You can overspend your trades in an Expansion Leg. Review before the markets Focus during the markets Review after Review after a rest 1:47:00 Market Efficiency Paradigm Hedge Funds don’t know what they’re doing If you Buy above a High, it’s either going to retrace and continue or a complete reversal. 1:55:25 A real Market Structure Shift where they are no longer interested in the same direction and they’ve changed orderflow is where there’s a breakout. A real breakout will never give you an entry at a breakout position. 2:08:50 When you see EQL/EQH, the time you’ll expect a bottom or top to form at EQL/EQH is when there’s an SMT. Rule #1: Buy Low, Sell High Or Don’t Buy High, Don’t Sell Low 2:16:40 How to measure High & Low? 1. IPDA Data Ranges 2. Dealing Range 3. Current Expansion Leg Every single Price Leg starts with a Swing High/Swing Low. Dealing Range: Anchor it to the Swing that took Liquidity. 2:30:00 A LTF MSS is less relevant than a HTF PD Array Reaction of Price after hitting a HTF PD Array: 2:41:20 Healthily anticipate a 2nd touch of a Key Level. 2:59:00 It’s not always like this: A MSS is much more a psychological. process 1-Retail would think that the bottom is in (support) 2-Violent purging of Sellside Liquidity, retail would chase the move Lower 3-Takes out an Old Low then consolidates 4-Another stop run and then takes out the Swing High (2) that caused the purge Every single Price movement has a purpose and a Logic: Someone’s getting fucked over and someone’s fucking them over. 3:05:50 If a Daily Key Level Trust a Logic fails, move to the Weekly. and Narrative 3:12:50 The PD Array on the left side of the curve can be used as support on the right side. Breakers prevent Gaps from filling A HTF Gap will leave the LTF Gap unfilled Turtle Soup PREVENTS Gaps from filling 3:14:30 If you got a Turtle Soup and a shift on a LTF, you enter. -IPDA Data Ranges -Buy Low, Sell High -HTF FVG into a LTF Liquidity Pool 3:16:45 3:17:40 What happens when a Manipulation into a HTF PD Array, taking out 20,40,60 Discount Liquidity Pool plus OTE? Turtle Soup 3:19:00 -Seasonal Tendencies -Monthly Bias (IPDA Data Ranges) -Weekly Profile -Time of Day 3:21:00 Highest Probability Orderblock: -Takes Liquidity -FVG -Thick candle Expect where Monthly and or Weekly Bias is forming. 3:24:00 In a Bullish market, we buy below Opening Price and expect a rally especially when there’s a HTF PD Array. 3:31:25 You can use IPDA Data Ranges in the LTF (last 20,40,60 candles) 3:38:40 False bottoms and What time Highs false tops are filtered and Lows form? The out by a HTF PD Array. purging of Liquidity? 3:45:40 The best way to learn is by watching and predicting the candles print live. Noting their behavior at certain times of the day, day of week. Note how they react at certain Highs and Lows, at certain PD Arrays, at certain times. Turtle Soups will always dig into a HTF PD Array 3:57:20 50% of any Price Leg is a good place for Turtle Soup 50% of any Range, we expect a continuation Turtle Soup 4:05:20 If you can’t tell the HTF correctly, you have no business trading the LTF. Trending Bullish Bearish -while creating HH -while creating LL HL, it’s rejecting LH, it’s rejecting Lows and breaking Highs and breaking Highs. Lows. 4:09:00 Markets move in Expansions and Consolidations. Consolidation -Market Markers build interest to suck in participants. 4:11:45 A-M-D Breakouts are not like what turtle traders think. They appear in a specific Logic and pattern at a certain Key Level at a certain time. Accumulation is generating interest on both ends of a range. A clear defined range. This is where Turtle Soup is cooked. The purpose of a range is to accumulate and generate Liquidity on both ends of the market and trip one end of the range to the other. 4:19:00 A characteristic of a true breakout is an initial rejection followed by an expansion. FVGs on the HTF are Swing Highs/Lows with Liquidity above/below it on the LTF. 4:19:50 A rejection is the refusal to expand above a High or below a Low whether it’s an instant rejection or consolidation. 4:20:50 How to know if Smart Money is Net Long? They’re accumulating below Lows and throwing positions above Highs. Logic of an Uptrend: What does it mean if they didn’t stop above that High (X)? It means their positions are so large that they need to go to an even bigger Liquidity Pool, at a Higher High. 4:21:50 Uptrend = we Buy the dumps below Lows Downtrend = we Sell the pops above Highs 4:23:25 As soon as we got a first rejected High and it broke the first Swing Low (the Low that broke the High), it indicates that Smart Money is not interested in Longs anymore. Liquidity Pools that offer valid bounces for shortterm (Previous Candle’s High/Low): Previous Month’s High/Low Previous Week’s High/Low Previous Day’s High/Low 4:33:50 When there is a pop above a High and we’re Bearish, you validate it with a HTF PD Array and you find an entry on the LTF. 4:35:30 The MMXM is a Draw on Liquidity. It tells you what to do. Breaking the PDA’s on the left side of the curve and respecting PDA’s on the right side of the curve. 4:38:40 Basic Range Trading: When you have a range, it’s building Liquidity above and below. If you Purge one end, the logical target would be the other end and EQ. Target 1 -50% of the range Target 2 -Range High Target 3 -Swing High that caused the Purge Generating Liquidity - Range Low Purged - Buyside is still intact 4:40:00 When you see a Range Low Purged and the Range High has not been Purged, then you can reasonably anticipate the 50% of the Range and or the Range High to be taken out. Find a clear defined range. Once one end of the range gets purged then you enter. Blend it with HTF PD Array, Time, and Market Profiles. Consolidation – Turtle Soup – Expansion 4:47:25 Orderflow changes at certain point in time and at certain Liquidity Pools and at certain Standard Deviations. It flips from Bullish to Bearish and vice versa. It can only be Bullish until it’s not. Buy Range Low Sell Range High If not sure Never Buy Range High Never Sell Range Low 4:48:30 The only time you can be a breakout trader is when they create a PD Array at the Range High/Low. Never deal with Price at 50% of the Range: -can be used as Support or Resistance. Never Long after a false breakout range Never Short after a false breakout range -We have shifted. We are now trading from Bullish to Bearish. And vice versa. 4:50:50 We expect a Stop Run at the 50% of the Range. 4:52:50 The biggest challenge as a Turtle Soup Trader is differentiating between ranging markets and trending markets. The things that can help you with these are HTF PD Arrays and chart time with concepts. -Time -STDV -HTF PDA -Chart Time -Market Profiles A Purge on either side is going to take us on the other side 4:55:50 As a Turtle Soup Trader, we have 3 entries: 4:59:10 5:04:00 The Swing is The first breakout one of the earliest of a Range is almost indications that a always the false one. Top or Bottom is Blend it with Buy forming for a Low, Sell High. Blend specific reason. it with measurements on measuring High and Low. 5:04:50 After we check Rule #1, we then check for a MMXM: 5:10:10 A Low above a Key Level. Watch Core Content Month 12. 5:15:50 MSS is valid only if: -SMT at a Key Level -Key Level by itself 5:16:50 Real breakouts don’t really allow you to participate. 5:31:50 Stop Runs for continuation, they happen at the 50% of the range. 5:37:00 As soon as we start seeing Highs and Lows rejecting, we are ranging. If we see Highs and Lows get taken at the same time, we are ranging. Every 3-4 months there’s a Quarterly Shift. Its purpose is to provoke and evoke sentiment change. 5:47:00 Turtle Soup What they have in common is a HTF PD Array at a Key Level. 5:52:50 A range can be broken or Turtle Souped. When you reach the extremity of a range, then you can expect it to be falsely broken or truly broken. How to differentiate? -Chart Time A range doesn’t -HTF PD Array last forever, at some -Market Profiles -Reaction point it’s going to break. 5:55:10 ITH/ITL can be Turtle Souped but not get broken. 5:59:20 If a range has been broken but didn’t expand, what are they doing? They are accumulating. If they have accumulated down there, they would have been distributing it up already. 6:01:00 Turtle Soup Entry Techniques 1.HTF PDA with 2. ITL/ITH to HTF PDA SL the left for SL 3. LTF CSD Summary: -Rule #1 -Profile the Market -When in doubt, zoom out (HTF PD Array) -Identify the type of Turtle Soup TURTLE SOUP • O-H(ts)-L(ts)-C. • O-L(ts)-H(ts)-C. • A-M(ts)-D. • 9:30 Judas (ts). • SMR (ts) • Stoprun (ts) Higher-timeframe pd array = Lower-timeframe expansion 50% levels are magic. 50% of range. 50% of ob. 50% of fvg. 50% of expansion swing. 50% of brk. 50% of high-volume candles. Consolidation - Expansion (real breakout) Retracement - Expansion This sequence will clear things up for you; Regarding false and real breakouts. A high or low will go through one of two circumstances; 1- A false breakout: turtle soup. 2- A real breakout: expansion. Rejection blocks can be turtle souped, not just the wicks. Targets are mainly used as checkpoints; hence the partials. And potentially reversal points. - Jason bought bitcoin at the price of $10,000; and suffered a 50% loss from his purchase. - Romeo bought bitcoin at the price of $10,000; and doubled his money 4 times. Same price; Different Time. Here's a couple for New York: • 09:50 - 10:10 • 11:50 - 12:10 • 10:50 - 11:10 • 15:00 - 16:00 Bias: bullish. 1H fvg. SMT Nq. Entry 1: TSBM Entry 2: IOFED Entry 3: BRK 1 Entry 4: FAILED FVG Entry 5: BRK 1 Entry 6: BRK 1 Entry 7: BRK 2 Entry 8: BRK 2 Exit 1: Range high Exit 2: 4h candle high Duration: 50 minutes Risk: 20 points. Reward: 60 points. Remember those price legs where you were forcing shorts all the way up? Or vice versa? Reverse engineer them and see how clean those specific price legs were. The cleanest price delivery comes from trapped liquidity. Identify which episode of AMD we are currently in; the most common error is mistaking A for D. A “market structure shift” marks 1 of 2 things: 1- the beginning of distribution. 2- the end of manipulation. Key levels and time will filter out the noise Price will react from a key level in 3 manners: 1- V shaped reversal (instant reaction) 2- M shaped reversal (failure swings and turtle soup) 3- Multiple taps (least favorable) Many times, you’ll mark the correct level but enter from the first tap in an M shaped reaction for example; Anticipating which type of reaction shall manifest can be through backtesting and tape reading only. A few helpers: • V = OB • M = TSxM Bit of a stretch; but If this was a 5-minute chart I would expect something like this to happen. Close above 50% of OB = idea is invalidated. Both of them wicked past 50%, but none closed. It’s always in the closes. When you're trading the daily range, look at the last week’s ADR, look at the pd arrays within the ADR on the day, and tunnel vision that range within the specific times. Liquidity sweep > brk/ob> 50% > opposing liquidity. All within ADR. Unless there is an extremely volatile news driver, or another reason to suppose so; Don't worry about the price magically going up 30000 points in a 1-minute candle. It will usually remain within ADR. When price is in a clear defined range: Breakout traders are waiting for a break to the upside or downside. That is why the first breakout of a range is usually a false one to trap them. And we can reasonably expect two targets after a TSxM: 1- 50% of the range 2- range low Turtle Soup Model Look for it at; 1- London Open 2- London Killzone 9:30 ending (best time) 11:30 3- NY Open 4- London Close 5- End of 3pm Macro 10:30 05:50 Breakers prevent fvgs from getting filled in. When you're bullish and you see a breaker and an fvg below it, anticipate the fvg to be left open. If price goes to 50% of the breaker body, It is; 1- not as bullish as you think it is 2- you chose a wrong breaker and it rallies from another pd array (the fvg, the ob...etc) If the breaker doesn't give you an instant reaction, it’s not a breaker. A few red flags: 1- Consolidation right below the breaker body with an inside candle 2- Close above breaker body (biggest red flag) 3- Trading above the 50% of the breaker The warning signs of fake turtle soup (true breakouts): • Opposing liquidity taken. • Close through level with two candles. • Close through with 3 candles leaving fair value gap behind. • Acceleration away from level instantly from the fvg left behind. Consolidation - Expansion (real breakout) Retracement - Expansion (real breakout) Original consolidations of MMxM are real breakouts. (Cons - exp - retr - exp) A HTF pd array is more important than a lower timeframe "market structure shift". I don't even look at "markets structure shifts", just turtle soups, breakers, and Obs when the time is right. It’s always a better idea to enter a HTF idea, with a LTF entry and targets. Rather than enter a LTF trade idea, and then convince yourself to make it fit the higher timeframe narrative. The state of delivery is changing on the lower timeframe at a fast pace; but if you zoom out it is still in the same state. Recipe to cook a Low Resistance Liquidity Run (LRLR) = HTF PD Arrays • Monthly key levels will produce weekly expansions • Weekly key levels will produce daily expansions. • Daily key levels will produce 4hr expansions. • 4hr pd arrays will produce 15min expansions. It’s so repetitive that it gets boring. And then eventually you get suckered into forcing moves. That’s why you keep a set of rules: 1- Number of trades per week. 2- Number of % win/loss you stop at. 3- Journal of screenshots of winning trades; Time and Price. 4- HTF PDA Most money lost: - marrying bias - seeing what I think is happening; not what's actually happening. - overleveraging - not cutting losses early (at signs of weakness) Most money made: - being aligned with HTF pd arrays - trading when the time is right - turtle soups Most people are “scalping” because their HTF directional bias sucks, and they have the opportunity to make mistakes and impulsively gamble again without being forced to correct it. They are scalpers by force, not by choice. Don’t be “most people”. There is one magic box every 2-3 months. • Weekly key level = expansion on the daily chart. • Daily key level = expansion on the 4hr chart. • 4 Hour key level = expansion on the 1hr chart. And so on... When the stars align; and your plan is going well... you see the candle on the left appear as a reaction from a key level. You can have a reasonable anticipation of: 1- A classic sell candle (expansion) instantly. 2- A bit of consolidation; and then a classic sell candle. This is originally exclusive to breakers, but it can be used for any HTF pd array if the stars are aligned. It can come in the same exact shape but inverted as well, and the same sequence follows. How a "unicorn" should react: If the pd array doesn't give you an instant reaction; ditch it and wait for another one. Where most people fuck up = "wait" Allow your eyes the beauty of the entry, Burn the image of an optimal reaction of a pd array in your head. And if it’s not optimal, scratch it for another one. Take profits at: 1- A potential reversal point 2- A potential reaction point NOT based on your dollar P/L Note the "M" reaction at the key level. Turtle soup > failure swing inside of key level (M reaction). When price is consolidating, don't touch it. Mark the high of the consolidation range and low, and only CONSIDER touching it if it shows a favorable reaction at either end. Always note the reaction of a correctly chosen key level; and demand key levels to always behave similarly. Otherwise, you ditch them and wait for another one. Optimal Orderblock reaction: Optimal Smart Money Reversal reaction: • If the reaction is not instantaneous relative to the timeframe = no good • Consolidations inside of pd arrays (spending multiple candles inside a pd array) = no good • Violation of Mean Threshold and C.E = no good You want to skip the consolidations or enter at the end of them (turtle soup); to kick-start an expansion. I prefer obs to be created at a turtle soup top/bottom And I prefer them to be retraced to HARD And I prefer them to give me a reaction within 1-3 candles max And I prefer them to be big and beefy Do NOT engage with price: 1- After a classic sell candle (ExpansionConsolidation-Expansion) 2- In the middle of consolidating ranges (Only trade the extremities of a range) 3- Buying or Selling a breakout 4- "Unclear" conditions 5- After a major target has been met Turtle soup > Expansion > Protraction (fvg here to enter) > Expansion > Protraction (fvg here to enter) > Capitulation > Consolidation > Turtle soup > Expansion > And so on. You don't enter at Expansion; you wait (difficult part), and enter at protraction. ES was a good demonstration of the concept: Expansion> Consolidation> Expansion (next couple of weeks). Know when to stay out and keep expectations LoW. It’s not a pattern. It’s a sequence: 1- Consolidation. 2- Expansion (market structure shift/breakout). 3- Retracement (entry). 4- Expansion to target. Market Maker models are useless without a HTF pd array; They always start at one, (original consolidation) and they always finish at one. (Smart Money Reversal) After a major target is hit, we anticipate: 1- Consolidation to continue. 2- Consolidation to reverse. Expansion > Consolidation > Protraction (entry)> Expansion> Consolidation > Protraction (entry)> Expansion Don’t bet too large on low quality setups, and don’t bet too small on high quality setups. Engineering=Consolidation Consolidations reach a tipping point where there is a kiss of death, a purge. After the purge we see a MASSIVE expansion swing; a true Low resistance liquidity run; violent distribution. Any price movement before the purge is minuscule when compared. 25 days of consolidation undone in 4 days You want to enter not during the consolidation; you want to enter when the consolidation phase is coming to an end. You want to enter before the expansion. Expansion occurs during times of the day, days of the week, weeks of the month. "Macros" After a sharp price leg; anticipate consolidation. Trend following traders have been indoctrinated to "follow the trend"; they are the prey of consolidations after expansions. Consolidation > Expansions Expansions > Consolidations Consolidations = Money Losing Machine Consolidation > Expansion > Consolidation > Expansion > Consolidation > Expansion Consolidation = generating interest on both ends of range. Expansion = generating interest in the trending direction. It's how the markets work; on all time frames 1- Liquidity pools (PxHs and PxLs) 2- Time (OHLC, OLHC) Everything else comes second, and there is NO secret knowledge. You just have to be mentally disciplined enough to tie those two together consistently over a large enough sample size of trades with a good RR/% gainloss. Everyone is looking for the holy grail of BEING RIGHT all the time so they can max leverage to the moon. What happens if you get it wrong though...? RR and % are the holy grail nobody wants to talk about. Trading is a business, losing trades are the cost of doing business. If you have a 50% accuracy and 1:2 RR system; you shall be a successful businessman. For the perfectionists/psychopaths: When day trading; Always double check the hourly/4-hour candle profiles for confluence. That's how you catch 1-5 pip stop loss trades. Add to this: Weekly profile Htf pd arrays, Intermarket analysis, And some other tools; = you easily have 1:20RR - 1:50 RR trades at least once a week. And a huge headache all day long in exchange. Stoploss placement: 1- 25% of target (1:3/4 RR) 2- ITHs and lows 3- Above or below a pd array As a general rule; your stoploss is placed: 1- 25-30% of your take profit. 2- High of fvg candle high, low of fvg candle low. 3- Above ob, below ob. 4- Above breaker, below breaker. 5- Above Tuesday's high, below Tuesday's low. 6- Above London high, below London low. For late entries: 7- Above/Below the high/low that retraded to an orderblock (that's your new ceiling when bearish, and your new floor when bullish.) 8- Above the high and below the low that rebalanced a gap. 9- Above and below the Turtle soup high and low. Time and price are fractal: • Price = PD Arrays. • Time = OHLC and IPDA data ranges. It's that simple. You know what's the difficult part? Finding your model within the concepts. You don't need to know 10,000 kicks; you need to practice 1 kick 10,000 times History of the charts is a gold mine. And it repeats for those who have eyes to see. Mark out a 1 Day key level, and look at the patterns that form at these key levels and what time they are hit. Notice anything? Stop looking at price from the price axis, and look at it more from the time axis. Patterns repeat in both planes; you have been taught to only look at the candlesticks from the price axis (patterns, orderblocks, imbalances...etc). What about time? For swings: You have a HTF pd array; That's step one. What's the DOL from the pd array? What day of week did the pd array hit? What time of day did it hit? What week of month is it? What's the seasonal tendency? What's COT saying? What’s the Intermarket analysis? Where is invalidation? Market Maker Series 2021: ICT suggests to count how many candles a consolidation will last in the reaccumulations and redistributions of the market maker model. How many candles it will take = how much Time it will take. A LTF turtle soup is an orderblock entry on a HTF, and a breaker entry on an even HrTF. Time and Price are an endless blackhole of fractals within fractals: And they all work, And they all make sense. And they all repeat. Pick the model that you resonate with and make it yours. How to probe order flow: 1- Highs and Lows, which are being broken? Which are being rejected? 2- Are upclose candles providing resistance or downclose candles providing support? 3- Gaps, which are being respected? Bullish or Bearish? Don’t overthink it. Probe and follow orderflow until proven otherwise. With enough chart time and tape reading you’ll know what’s more likely to happen. “In the eyes of an amateur there are many possibilities; in the eyes of an expert there are few”. There are some other variations to the main four types, but those are exceptions. And exceptions do not disprove the rule. This one is an example of modification to the classic buy. Still is in line with the idea of the classic candle, which is "buy below opening price". • Entry 1: Turtle Soup • Entry 2: OB/FVG • Entry 3: Breaker/OTE How many 4-H expansion candles occur in a day? How many 1-H expansion candles occur in a day and what time? How many 1-D expansion candles occur a week? A month? Expansion is always a "distribution" phase. Expansion occurs after "boring candles". Expansion is the key. No reason to be bearish as long as that Weekly OB/FVG is beneath us as our spring. You know what this is? 1- Cons. - exp.- ret. exp. 2- TSxM 3- Swing Low/High 4- AMD 5- MMXM original consolidation 6- BKR 7- FVG 8- BKR + FVG 9- Orderblock 10- OTE 11- Classic buy/sell day 12- wave 1 - 2 - 3 ...etc. Whatever you saw it as first, you can’t unsee it. The highest probability false breakouts (Turtle Soup) occur at: 1- PWH, PDH. 2- Occur in a 3 drives formation. (Fake double top then 3rd drive) 3- Occur within a killzone. 4- Occur at a "distribution" phase of the AMD cycle. Turtle soup can be: 1- A range. 2- AMD. 3- A high/low test. Enhance your entry by: 1- Wait for an orderblock to form. 2- Enter from the breaker that souped the turtle. 3- Always have a HTF pd array anchored somewhere nearby. Finally: It may feel like you're buying/selling into an endless pit at the beginning.... thats why you have rules. 1- htf pd array. 2- clear defined range/high/low. 3- breaker formation. (Best) 4- stoploss 25% of the range if you enter without confirmation. 5- chart time. TIME: • The same way Tuesday and Wednesday are the highest probability days of the week, • The same way week 2 and 3 are the highest probability weeks of the month, • The same way the Killzones are the highest probability times of the day, Q2 and Q3 are upon us... Here's a few details on turtle soup trades: • Your stoploss is 25% of the range, if it hits it you're wrong. • Your target is the opposing end of the range (1:3 in the very least). • third tap+ is the highest probability. • when you're right; trade will be over very quick. Hierarchy of setups: 1- Turtle soup (highest probability) 2- Breakers 3- Orderblocks; with fvgs and clear displacement. 4- Rejection blocks The times of the open and close are fixed. It’s your job to go test the data and see what time, what circumstances, & which with patterns do the highs and lows form. Participate only in the highest probability candlesticks: Classic sell candles Classic buy candles The highest probability orderblock: 1- takes out liquidity (false breakout) 2- has a fair value gap 3- is created within a Killzone 4- is retraded to within a Killzone Gaps get filled more often than not, but when they do remain unfilled, why is it...? Gaps stay unfilled due to: 1- Breakers. 2- SMT fill. (one asset fills the other one doesn’t.) 3- BPRs. 4- Turtle soups. 5- The time is up. Example: Bitcoin > Ethereum For a bearish fvg: Low of the fvg is always a swing high, (liquidity pool) Middle of the fvg is a breaker, High of the fvg is an orderblock, And vice versa. It’s not just a magic "air bubble" That's why the C.E is important. Once price breaks through a breaker it's a true sign of weakness/strength. And that's why FVGS are included in the main mechanics of price: "Price moves only to do two things; Attack a high/low, or rebalance an imbalance. (Liquidity Pool)" Whenever you're bullish, always be aware of being caught with your pants down by an IOFED. IOFED low, after a breaker created, and the IOFED occurred below the breaker, the IOFED low is where I move my stop. And reasonably anticipate it to not be touched. IOFED is a key entry + breakers will leave gaps unfilled. Let's take a look at a live chart: First, observe the fvg build (looks like an empty piece of air) Next, we zoom into the red circle... This is the exact reason why FVGs are not just empty spaces of air. They are a bunch of PD Arrays stacked together to look a certain way. (The FVG). This is also why certain fvgs remain partially filled or totally unfilled (SMT = No stophunt, weakness of trend = No SH..etc) Entry1: tssm Entry2: tssm + something else Entry3: 5min fvg (continuation) Entry4: 1min fvg (continuation) Entry5: 1min orderblock (continuation) Time: last trading hour Duration: 18 5min candles. Quality: A+ Regarding weekly profiles: • When price is compressed throughout the week, you can expect Thursday and Friday to be expansion candles. • "Seek and Destroy bullish/bearish Friday = Friday is a classic sell day. Reference: Core Content Month 7, Episode 1,2 and 3. "Regarding the intermarket analysis; all the asset classes don't all have to be in sync at the same time, if you have a couple of them lined up together you have yourself a high probability intermarket analysis setup" - ICT, core content. Work on your model every day, to make it better. What is it? When does it occur? How does it occur? Where does it occur? I'm not saying don't trade any other model, but your model... the one that jumps out at you from the chart as soon as you look at it. That one. That's the one that needs to be sharpened every day, you have to know it inside out. You can have the ability to trade 10 other models and strategies... But that ONE model is yours. You built it. You know it like the back of your hand. What is THAT one model/strategy for you, which you feel like you know like the back of your hand? Why is the concept of "your model" important? There is way TOO MANY models/strategies to trade the financial markets. If you don't pick your THAT one model and perfect it; you will be lost. Two kinds of turtle soup trades: 1- A false breakout against the trend. 2- A breakdown with the trend Both are an opportunity, and both are identical; The only difference is the time they happen, and the amount of time you hold the trade for. Note the different characteristics of a real breakout vs a false breakout. • Real breakout: breaks low, leaves fvg behind (3 candles break through), instantly rejects and expands away. • False breakout: price refuses to close through the level. It’s always one of two: 1- Consolidation: Accumulation of orders on both ends > false breakout to upset + induce (1st breakout = fake), followed by a real breakout. (Expansion) 2- Expansion: Spiking interest and leading to another consolidation either to continue or reverse. • SMT • A little bit of history… The idea of divergence between assets was first introduced by Charles Dow (1800s). • We can use SMT for three main reasons: 1- Turtle soup. 2- Validating market structure shifts. 3- SMT FVG fills. 4- Leaving “equal lows”. (bonus) There are really only 4 daily templates. Only 4 ways the daily candle can print. 4 main ways; 6 different circumstances. There is literally no other way any candlestick can end up. It has to be one of these. Your job is to find out which. 1- classic buy 2- classic sell 3- seek and destroy neutral (closing price is same as opening price) 4- "seek and destroy" bullish/bearish (closing price is higher/lower than opening price) They come in certain sequences, and cannot come in other sequences. The above 6 pictures, are the same 4 states of the market as described in month 1. Expansion (1&2) Consolidation (3&4) Retracement (5&6) Reversal (5&6). Hierarchy of PD Arrays in One Setup 4H Rejection Block 1H Orderblock 15M Fair Value Gap 5M Breaker How to frame and trade a bias? Step1: find where the higher timeframe is likely going to draw to. Step 2: wait for turtle soup candidates to present themselves to you (Key highs and lows), all the way up to the HIGHER TIMEFRAME. Step 3: profit from the meat of the moves. Recipe for cooking a good soup: 1- A lower timeframe market structure shift is less important than a higher timeframe PD array. 2- Lower-timeframe breakers opposing to highertimeframe orderflow are good turtle soup candidates. 3- 2022 models without liquidity taken = fake. Discount bearish market structure shifts are likely to be fake. Premium bullish market structure shifts are likely to be fake. Close below = lower prices. Close above = higher prices. Wick below = bullish reversal. Wick above = bearish reversal. Wick Entry From Highs and lows, to highs and lows. From Wicks and bodies, to wicks and bodies. That’s all. Let’s dive a bit deeper into the execution... Understand the importance of time before price. Ask yourself the following: 1- When is it time to trend? 2- When is it time to counter trend? 3- When is it time to chop? As we all know, there are two types of turtle soup relative to the timeframe you’re analyzing: 1- Reversal. 2- Continuation. Main Components: -HTF DOL almost reached (clearly bullish/bearish OF) -LTF Liquidity Pool -Market and Candle Profile Secondary Components: -Accumulation – Manipulation (KoD) – Distribution -Premium / Discount -SMT (SMT = creation of equal Highs and Lows to be raided in the future) Common turtle soup mistake: mistaking the distribution for manipulation. Fix: make sure to identify the draw on liquidity properly through the higher timeframe. Steps to catching Mega Trades: -Seasonal Tendency -Intermarket Analysis -Market Profile -Lower Timeframe Confirmation Other tools: • COT • Open Interest If they close above the rejection block, they’re going to 50% of the wick. If they close above 50% of the wick, they’re going to the end of the wick. Stop taking trades when the candle is closing; wait for the next candle to open. An orderblock can be any up-close candle before the bearish impulse wave. Or it can be the thick up-close candle that dug into a previous high and we now closed below it with an fvg, now the algorithm will respect it as an entry level.
