LLB Economics - Elective Santosh Nair | Mmathapelo De Jenga September : 30, 2024 October : 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 - 2024 REGENESYS’ INTEGRATED LEADERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT MODEL 2 D E V E L O P I N G R E G E N E S YS G R A D U A T E A T T R I B U T E S Getting a qualification is not enough, on its own, to prepare you to traverse the rapidly changing world of work, where industry 4.0 and 5.0 are rendering many professions obsolete. We will work with you throughout your studies to help you develop these critical attributes to navigate the new world order, along with the skills and knowledge you need to excel in any environment: 3 THE QUINTUPLE BOTTOM LINE While Regenesys’ Integrated Leadership and Management Model demonstrates the interconnected- ness of the individual with organisational layers and the broader environment, the quintuple bottom line draws attention to the interrelationships between the actualisation of organisational purpose, and people, planet, and prosperity, given the organisation’s ability to pivot 4 Fac ilit at io n E xpec t at io ns v Be open-minded v Please raise the hand when you have to speak v Listen carefully v One conversation at a time v Respect the opinions of others / if you disagree, do so politely v Give constructive feedback v Build on the ideas of others rather than destroying them vTake some risks and share new ideas vHave fun and enjoy the experience! 5 Key A r eas Cover ed in This Cou r se COURSE OUTLINE & SESSION PLAN Introduction to Economics, Economic Systems and Modelling PPF, Demand, Supply, Equilibrium and Elasticity Production and Costs Week – 1 30 Sept – 3 Oct. Market Structures and Competition Macroeconomic Indicators: GDP, Inflation, Fiscal & Monetary Policy Week – 2 5 – 7 Oct International Trade 6 L ear ning O u t c o mes v Understand the task of economics and distinctions between microeconomics and macroeconomics v Analyse the relationships between demand, supply and market equilibrium v Show the relationships between production and cost v Describe perfect and imperfect competition in the economic environment. v Distinguish between fiscal, monetary and trade policy 7 TAK E N OTE O F TH E S E S Y MBO L S … ! v Slides with this mark not part of this course v Slides with this mark for knowledge; Content NOT included in EXAMS…! v SG # 1 – This means: Study Guide & Page Number; You can locate content in this page! SG# 7 8 Caution | Versigtigheid | Uqaphele vPlease: v DO NOT read Study Guide NOW! v LISTEN – Allow Your EARS To Do Their JOB! v Take Notes – It will help you to focus 9 I nt r o du c t io n Activity – 10 Minutes Aim: Acquaintance Break-time is Democratized Depends upon Attendees Time: Keep it short Task: Please introduce yourself: v Name v Professional background (if willing to share) v Keen area of interest in Economics 10 Yo u r Take. . ? P lease… v Why do you … want to study Economics? v Why should you – a law-student know Economics? v What is the big – deal? 11 I nt r o du c t io n t o E c o no mic s – Soc ial Sc ienc e “Social science … studies choices that individuals, businesses, governments and entire societies make while coping with scarcity and incentives that influence and reconcile those choices.” (Parkin, 2019:Pp 38) Oikonomia: Greek term for Household management v Reference text: Regenesys Study Guide v Key textbook: Parkin, M. 2019, Economics, Global Edition, 13th ed., Harlow, United Kingdom: Pearson Education 12 D ef init ion of E c onomic s v Microeconomics - study of choices that individuals and businesses make, way these choices interact in markets, and influence governments. v Macroeconomics - study of performance of national economy and global economy. Macroeconomics deals with Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply; This stream was founded in the aftermath of the Great Depression of 1930s by Lord John Maynard Keynes 13 E c onomic P r oblems SG# 6 Scarcity Choices disincentives Incentives – rewards / penalties determines our choices Traffic violation – penalty; Bravery awards – saving lives Limited by income, price, and time 14 Common E c onomic Ter ms SG# 6 Economic Terms Meaning / Explanation Capital Goods Goods not consumed but used in production of other goods Examples: machinery, plant and equipment used in manufacturing and construction, of buildings, residences, roads, dams etc.; Capital goods do not yield direct consumer satisfaction, but permit more production and satisfaction in future (Adapted from Mohr, 2015, p.7 Consumer Goods Goods used or consumed by individuals or households (i.e., consumers) to satisfy wants Examples: food, wine, clothing, shoes, furniture, household appliances etc.; (Adapted from Mohr, 2015, p.7 Demand Demand differs from wants, desires or needs; demand for good or service only if one has financial ability to purchase; Demand should have purchasing power; (Adapted from Mohr, 2015, p.4 15 Common E c onomic Ter ms SG# 6 Economic Terms Meaning / Explanation Firms A firm is an economic unit that employs factors of production and organises them to produce and sell goods and services. (Adapted from Parkin, Powell, Matthews, 2017, p.44) Households People living under one roof considered households; do fundamental things vital to an economy such as – Demand goods and services from product markets Market Markets: arrangement for buyers and sellers to access information and conduct business Individuals and firms, pursuing self-interest, profited market-making – by buying or selling items which they specialise; markets work only when property rights exist; (Adapted from Parkin, Powell, Matthews, 2017, p.44) Money Any commodity or token generally accepted as means of payment; trade in markets can exchange any item for any other item. Imagine complexity in barter; ‘invention’ of money makes exchange much more efficient. (Adapted from Parkin, Powell, Matthews, 2017, p.44) 16 Common E c onomic Ter ms SG# 7 Economic Terms Meaning / Explanation Needs Needs are necessities, things essential for survival, food, water, shelter and clothing. Needs, unlike wants, not unlimited; it is possible to calculate basic needs for a person / household to survive. (Adapted from Mohr, 2015, p.4) Services Services: intangible things; medical, legal, financial services and services provided by public servants. (Adapted from Mohr, 2015, p.7) Wants Wants human desires for goods and services; wants are unlimited – we all want everything. As individuals or for society, always want or desire more or better goods and services. For individuals, biological, spiritual, material, social wants; a group have collective wants, law and order, justice and social security. (Adapted from Mohr, 2015, p.4) 17 Fac t o r s o f P r o du c t io n SG# 9 The Key 4 Ingredients in Economics of Production and Services v Land – geographical area; can be bought or rented v Labour – people who work in factories; only be rented v Capital – physical, machinery, equipment; bought / rented v Entrepreneurship: organisation of work under one common goal; holding various parts together & make them work in unison 18 E ver yone Mu s t Make Choic es Choices & Constraints v Households – limited by income v Businesses – profit seeking (mix of goods/services) v Governments – must choose how to spend taxes 19 RECALL …! The 4 Factors of Production? 20 D is t ingu ish Be t ween Mic r o and Mac r o Microeconomics v Deals with choices, individuals and businesses make; v Interaction of choices in markets; influence governments policies; v Focus - single economic variable: demand, supply, price, consumer; v Include factors of production (labour, land, capital, entrepreneurship), from a single owner to single user of these resources; v Example: a business studying supply and demand for a specific product, production capacity, and effects of regulation by government on this product. 21 D is t ingu ish Be t ween Mic r o and Mac r o Macroeconomics q Study of performance of national, regional, and global economies and policy tools used; q Influences performance (e.g. taxation, public expenditure, subsidies, interest rate changes, etc) q Focus - entire economy (e.g. aggregate factors), aggregate output, savings unemployment rate etc.; q Include aggregate flows of income and expenditure between different economic sectors. q Example: effect of changes in interest rate or minimum wage levels on the larger economy 22 E c onomis t s – Mic r o and Mac r o L evel Common Economic Denominator – Interest Rate A microeconomist will study, for example, the effects of low interest rates on individual borrowers A macroeconomist will study the effects of low interests rates on national housing market or on unemployment rate 23 E c onomic P r oblems v SG# 6 We are faced daily with finite resources and choices (decisions) on how to make best use of them. v Knowledge and skills required for economic analysis and decision-making are fundamental prerequisites for individuals, teams, organizations, institutions, societies, and governments. 24 What H ow and f or Whom? SG# 9 Economics of Choice and The Three Key Questions Positive Normative v Economics create theories to answer question: “What is?” and “What ought to be?” v Consider: every day, billions of people make economic choices that result in what, how, and for whom goods and services are produced v Choices people make are in interest of self and society v Trade-offs – when one item is given away for another’s possession v Opportunity costs – choosing an alternative by sacrificing a benefit 25 What H ow and f or Whom? SG# 9 The Three Key Questions in Economics Economics attempts to answer: • What is? (Positive, realistic) higher wages higher GDP; empirically tested • What ought to be? (Normative, idealistic) higher wages good for labor; opinions / subjective values matters Choices based on: • What? to produce (goods and services; Consumption – utility maximized) • How? to produce (factors of Production; – cost minimized) • For Whom? to produce (Distribution of income among factors of production and income distribution among different individuals – Purchasing power) 26 Ot her Gu ide t o Choic es ? SG# 10 Interests: Self Vs. Society? Interest of self: buy a car/home for self; take care of family; Interest of society: building roads, electricity networks, potable water connections, encouraging trade – public goods 27 Tr ade- of f s ? Scarcity & Choices q Scarcity and choices create trade-offs q A trade-off is an exchange – giving up one thing to get something else q Concept of trade-off is central to all economics q Trade-offs consider self and social interest decisions (“big tradeoff”) 28 Oppo r t u nit y Cos t s Benefits Sacrificed ? An opportunity cost: benefit, profit, or value of something (e.g. time) that must be given-up to acquire or achieve something else. Factors of production (land, labour, capital, entrepreneurship) can be put to alternative uses; Every action, choice, or decision has an associated opportunity cost 29 RECALL …! The 3 KEY Questions in Economics Scarcity & Trade-off Opportunity Cost and an Example 30 E c onomic Sys t ems SG# 10 - 11 Traditional system: Societies built on traditional beliefs, structure & customs; Engage in agriculture based living and trading; Limited inclination to progress or development; Inuit; tribes of Amazon; Command system (socialist or communist system): System that runs on central planning, production and distribution; No private ownership; Prone to inefficiencies; govt. centricity Former USSR, North Korea etc.; 31 E c onomic Sys t ems SG# 10 - 11 Market system: Designed around free-market concept; Limited regulation; Technologically advanced; Social and other customs no hinderance to economic development; and liberal US, Canada, UK; (US Post, National Railroad Passenger Corp. Amtrak is owned by Federal Govt.; Canada Post; Great British Railways) Mixed system: Economic system with a balance between free-market; Govt. intervention in limited manner and technologically progressive; Social customs no hindrance to development; liberal; Denmark, Finland, India, South Africa etc; 32 E c onomic Modelling and Theor ies SG# 19 Primer on Economic Models Provide logical, abstract template to help organise analyst’s thoughts about complex human behaviour (or interaction); In ways that sheds some insight into a particular aspect of that behaviour (or interaction) Graphs, diagrams, or words (equations) represent model 33 E c onomic Modelling Three Key Steps v Observation and measurement v Model building v Testing of model and development of theory Typical economic model would appear like this !"#$%&'() = *( + ,- . /012() + ,3 . !"4$%() + ,5 . 6784() + ,9 . %/6() + :() 34 D evelopment of E c onomic Theor y SG# 21 Three Key Steps – Explained (in Text) 35 Obs t ac les t o E c o nom ic Models SG# 22 Cause and effect and Ceteris paribus • There are factor variables to consider – other things being equal Fallacy of Composition • Invalid conclusion of generalizing results Post hoc Fallacy • A false cause–and-effect relationship Economic experiments not easy to carry out; Economic behaviour have simultaneous causes; Can’t be certain of cause-and-effect relationships Technically: Partial equilibrium (Pareto) 36 Task o f an E c o no m is t Three Key Task v Devising methods and procedures for obtaining data v Understanding and interpreting data v Advising stakeholders on suitability of alternative courses of action and allocation of scarce resources 37 RECALL …! v 4 Economic Systems v Economic Model v Fallacy of Composition v Post-hoc Fallacy 38 Gr aphs in E c o no m ic s SG# 23-24 Y - axis Axes: Y coordinate (dependent) X and Y coordinates X coordinate (independent) X - axis Variables (Qty, Price etc.) Scatter diagram Correlation and causation Patterns to look for: Direction of Variables Positive-same; Negative is opposite; unrelated vars.; linear is straight-line; Slope of a relationship: influence of one over another; Delta △. Slope is: △y/△x 39 P r o du c t io n Po ssibilit y F r o nt ier ( P P F ) SG# 24 - 26 • The Production Possibilities Frontier is a boundary between those combinations of goods and services that can be produced and those that cannot be; • Shows limits to production of goods; • Illustrates scarcity and alternating between choices; • Involves opportunity cost to choices – makes curve bend 40 P P F f o r P izzas and Co o ldr ink s Key Parts of PPF: Dilemma of Two – what combo? Efficient Frontier – only on the blue-line SG# 24 - 26 Constant Opportunity Cost implies that resources can be substituted for alternative purposes without any added cost. That makes the opportunity cost = 1 and constant; if the opportunity cost was not constant then in increasing one product by a factor of 1 comes at the expense of decreasing another by more than 1 factor or vice versa Beyond Realm – Unattainable or area beyond the blue-line; Within Control – Attainable or area in the shade; Presence of Opportunity Cost – Reason for the bend in the PPF – curvature Constant opportunity cost makes PPF straight line 41 P P F – Point s t o Remember SG# 24 - 26 Production efficiency achieved when goods and services produced at lowest possible cost – outcome occurs at all points on PPF; Points inside PPF, production is inefficient (resources are either unused or misallocated or both). Every choice on PPF involves trade-off (choices must be made). Allocative efficiency is when goods/servicers produced at lowest possible cost in quantities providing greatest possible benefit Point out few critical aspects of PPF 42 Task 4 You – Next Session Assume your brother’s company produces pizzas and cool drinks. Use graph to determine: v Draw a PPF Curve / Graph to explain: v If it makes 3-million pizzas how many cool-drinks can it make? v At14-million cool drinks how many pizzas can it make? v What is the problem if company produces 2-million pizzas and 10-million cool drinks? 43 P P F – Real- t ime A pplic at ion Textbook Ch-2 # 72 44 PPF – Real-time Application Textbook Ch-2 # 82 45 Market Structure and Competition 46 A nal ysis o f Mar ke t S t r u c t u r e & Co m pe t it io n Continuum of Market Structure Monopoly / Monopsony Duopoly Oligopoly Monopolistic Competition Perfect Competition SG# 27 - 30 Perfect competition: (Ideal Condition) Monopoly (imperfect competition) Oligopoly (imperfect competition) Monopolistic Competition • Many sellers and many buyers; • Identical goods / services • No restrictions on entry into or exit from market • Established firms have no advantage over new ones • Sellers and buyers are prices takers 47 Mo no po l y SG# 27 Greek Words Meaning “One” v Only one seller of a particular good; no competition; opportunity for exploitation obvious. v Monopolies exist for various reasons: v Barriers to entry: entry might require large investment; (energy and transport sectors;) v State intervention; (Eskom and Transnet in South Africa;) v State award patent rights to certain companies (particular drug produced by pharmaceutical company); and v Control of certain key resource in certain niche market (exclusive ownership of raw materials) SARB has a monopoly to print South African Rand De Beers in Central Selling Organization (CSO) South African Breweries (SAB) with very few small brewers 48 Oligopol y SG# 28 Cartelization of Market Oligopoly is indication of imperfect competition – a few players control market. South African cellular phone industry originally consisted of Vodacom and MTN. Today, other competitors include Cell C and Telkom. In oligopoly market-entry difficult; high costs and significant barriers to entry; Organisations in oligopoly have substantial pricing power and possible evidence of collusion. Cartels (collusion) usually prohibited by antitrust laws (in SA prohibited by Competition Commission SA) Banking: First Bank, Standard Bank, Nedbank, ABSA Retail: Pick n Pay and Shoprite (Duopoly) Energy: ESKOM and SASOL 49 Mo no po lis t ic Co m pe t it io n SG# 28 Common in Market Place v Here firms have many competitors; each firm sell a slightly different product; v Many small businesses are of this kind; v Common example, restaurant trade (excluding chain restaurants): v Each restaurant is uniqueness; but all are competing for essentially same customers (Economics online, 2015). v Monopolistic competition is most common market structure you will encounter Product / service Differentiator is the key to Monopolistic Competition 50 Per f ec t Co m pe t it io n SG# 29 v Many firms sell identical products (or services) to many buyers; v There are no restrictions on entry into or exit from market; v Established firms have no advantage over new ones; and v Sellers and buyers are well informed about prices. v Farming, grocery retailing, plumbing, dry cleaning, etc., reflect conditions for perfect competition; Perfect competitive market structures exist with difficulty in real world. v Organisations in perfect competition are price takers. v Firm cannot influence market price because its production insignificant part of total market; v Closest to perfect competition in the Foreign Exchange Market in the world 51 F r ee Mar ke t E c onomy – Per f ec t Co m pe t it io n SG# 29 All decisions are driven by pursuit of a single objective: increasing shareholder value through maximisation of economic profit. Economic profit is equal to total revenue minus total cost, with total cost measured as opportunity cost of production. 52 F ir ms E nt r y and E xit SG# 12 New firms enter a market in which existing firms are making an economic profit As new firms enter a market, the market price falls and the economic profit of each firm decreases Firms exit a market in which they are incurring an economic loss As firms leave a market the market price rises and the economic loss incurred by the remaining firms decreases Entry and exit stop when firms make zero economic profit Market structure determines fluidity in market - fluidity with which firms may enter / exit; More FLEXIBLE its structure more dynamic the industry; (monopolistic) More RIGID its structure less dynamic the industry (oligopoly, duopoly, monopoly) 53 RECALL …! Perfect Competition Oligopoly Monopoly Monopolistic Competition… 54 E c onomic sys t em SG# 10 - 11 Examining Advantage and Disadvantage v System of production, distribution and consumption of goods and services of an economy. v Principles and techniques to solve economic problems of scarcity through allocation of limited productive resources; v Market economy v Command economy v Mixed economy à Comment on Open and Closed economy v Traditional economic system 55 F r ee Mar ke t ec onomy SG# 12 Freedom for Market v Firms and households act in self-interest; determine how resources get allocated, what goods get produced and who buys the goods; v No government intervention in pure market economy (“laissezfaire”) v No truly free market economy exists in world; v Separation of government and market; v Prevents government from becoming too powerful, keep their interests aligned with markets; 56 Advantages & Disadvantages of Free Market Economy SG# 13 v Advantage – Free Market Economy v Efficiency in use of Factors of Production v Entrepreneurship encouraged v More R&D, innovation and v Only profitable goods/services; v Healthy competition to produce better products; v Acceleration of technical knowledge and processes; v More engaged society investments; 57 Advantages & Disadvantages of Free Market Economy v Disadvantages – Free Market Economy v Firms do whatever is necessary to make profit v Distorted investment priorities inequality SG# 13 v Greater social divide between rich and poor v Disproportionate political influence v Increase in corruption v Increased exploitation of workers / v Environmental degradation consumers v “Self-first” and “anything for money” v Increased social and economic 58 Command E c onomy – Commu nis t Cou nt r ies v Government is central feature of economy; often involved in everything from planning to redistributing resources; modelled on central planning v Core of communist philosophy; v Stable supply of resources; prices, full employment hallmark feature; v Government owns key industries like utilities, aviation, and railroad; v Erstwhile USSR, North Korea best examples; v No private ownership of factors of production; 59 Command ec onomy Advantages v If executed correctly, government can mobilize resources on a massive scale; Mobility can provide jobs for almost all of the citizens; v Government can focus on good of society rather an individual; focus could lead to more efficient use of resource 60 Command ec onomy Disadvantages q Hard for central planners to provide for everyone’s needs; q Consumption rationed by Govt., cannot calculate demand; only sets prices; q A lack of innovation since there is no need to take any risk; q Workers are also forced to pursue jobs in government; 61 Mixed E c o no my SG# 14 Concept of mixed economy, is easily relatable to real world; Demonstrates characteristics of both capitalism and socialism; Allows level of private economic freedom in use of capital, but allows governments interference in economic activities (legislate) to achieve specific social aims; Here in this economic system is efficiency efficiency > socialism; < capitalism but 62 Mixed E c o no my SG# 14 Three Key Points: Most economies have twin-economic systems – both private & public work along; Govt. use of resources; control private sector with taxes (promote social objectives); Mixed economic systems: Private sector make profits; but ensures public good; Companies nationalised if conduct is inappropriate; Mixed economy: a blend of both Capitalism and Socialism; most cases market price freedom exists; Sensitive sectors – prices managed; Most countries are mixed economic system; example, India, S. Africa, France etc., are mixed economies 63 Mixed ec o no my SG# 14 Advantages v Less government intervention than command economy. v Private businesses run efficiently, than government entity; v Govt. use taxes to redistribute income, reduce inequality; run safety-net: healthcare or social security v Govt. corrects market failures; break-up large monopolies v Tax harmful products – cigarettes reduce negative externality of consumption; 64 Mixed ec o no my SG# 14 Disadvantages v Criticisms from both sides arguing sometimes too much government intervention; sometimes there isn’t enough; v Common problem is state run industries often subsidized by government and run into large debts, they are uncompetitive; 65 Tr adit ional ec onomy v Most traditional, ancient types of economies in world; v These areas tend to be rural, second or third-world; v Closely tied to the land, through farming; v In this economic system, a surplus rare phenomenon; v Vast portions of world still function under traditional economic system; v Each member has specific and pronounced role – division of labour v Societies close-knit, socially satisfied, but lack access to technology and advanced medicine; 66 RECALL …! MIXED Economy COMMAND Economy CAPITALIST Economy TRADITIONAL Economy 67 End of First Unit 68 Demand, Supply, Equilibrium And Elasticities 69 D ef ining Mar ke t • Market - an arrangement, enables buyers and sellers to get information and do business with each other; • Free market economies - work on assumption that market forces, such as demand and supply, are best determinants of a society’s or nation’s well-being and means to meet needs; 70 U nder s t anding Movement in Mar ke t Demand: societies looking for solutions; Supply: source of solutions to societal problems Market Equilibrium: point of agreement between demand and supply on engagement and returns; Elasticity: responsiveness of demand/supply to signals 71 D emand Meaning & Law of Demand • Demand occurs when consumers want a product (or service), can afford it, and plan to buy it. • Law of demand states that (if all other factors remain equal) the higher the price of a good, the less people will demand that good. Likewise, the lower the price of a good, the greater will be the quantity demanded. 72 D emand Relat ionship Change in Quantify Demanded P1 (highest price) = Q1 (lowest demand) P3 (lowest price) = Q3 (highest demand) 73 D emand Relat ionship Change in Demand – Six Main Factors v Price of related goods (substitutes and complements) v Expected future prices v Income levels v Expected future income and credit v Population v Preferences 74 The D emand E q u at io n The law of demand states that a decrease in price of a good or service results in an increased demand of that good or service. The demand equation is: !" = $ − &' Where: Or ' = $ − &!" Negative sign is due to inverse relation between quantity demanded and price ($)*$&+, What it means ' Price $ and & Positive Constants !" Quantity Demanded 75 The D emand E q u at io n The demand equation (Parkin, 2019:116) denotes three things: 1. The price at which no one is willing to buy the good (where ! is zero). 2. As the price falls, the quantity demanded increases. 3. The constant (") tells us how fast the maximum price that someone is willing to pay for good falls as quantity increases. 76 The D emand E q u at io n Demand Equation Denotes Three Things: ' = $ − &!" !" = $ − &' 77 D emand f or E ner g y Bar s Real-time Example – Demand Curve 78 Su ppl y • Organizations supply goods (or services) if they have resources and technology to produce them, can profit from producing them, and plan to produce and sell them; • The law of supply states that (ceteris paribus) higher the price of a good, the greater quantity supplied, and lower the price of good, the smaller quantity supplied; 79 Su ppl y Cu r ve Supply Relationship P1 (lowest price) = Q1 (lowest supply) P3 (highest price) = Q3 (highest supply) 80 Su ppl y Relat ionship Six Main Factors of Change in Supply q The prices of factors of production q The prices of related goods and services produced q Expected future prices q The number of suppliers in the market q Technological advances q The state of nature Supply of Energy Bars – Please refer study guide Check supply schedule & graph Note what causes supply curve to increase or decrease 81 N o t ic e The concepts of demand and supply are fundamental to your understanding of economics. Please ensure you complete the recommended reading (Chapters 3 to 6 in Parkin, M. 2019, Economics, Global Edition, 13th ed., Harlow, United Kingdom: Pearson Education). Failure to complete the recommended reading will compromise the successful completion of your module. 82 E q u ilibr iu m – Mar ke t E q u ilibr iu m Market Equilibrium – When Demand Equals Supply Equilibrium price is achieved when quantity demanded equals quantity supplied and; Likewise equilibrium quantity is the quantity bought and sold at the equilibrium price A market should move toward its equilibrium because: • Price normalises buying and selling plans • Price corrects when plans do not match 83 E q u ilibr iu m in Mar ke t A Case of Energy Bars At a price of R1.00 a bar, 15 million bars a week are demanded and 6 million are supplied, there is a shortage of 9 million bars a week and the price rises; If the price is R2.00 a bar, 7 million bars a week are demanded and 13 million are supplied, there is a surplus of 6 million bars a week and the price fall; If the price is R1.50 a bar, 10 million bars a week are demanded, and 10 million bars are supplied. There is neither a shortage nor a surplus and the price does not change (equilibrium); Price (Rand per bar) Qty Demand 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 22 15 10 7 5 Qty Supply (million bars per week) (million bars per week) 0 6 10 13 15 Shortage (-) or Surplus (+) (Million) -22 -9 0 +6 +10 84 E q u ilibr iu m – I n E ner g y Bar s Mar ke t 85 E q u ilibr iu m – I n E ner g y Bar s Mar ke t Follow example in your study guide Discuss on Consumer Surplus & Producer Surplus v Schedule v Graph S Consumer Surplus P1 Producer Surplus D 86 Task 4 Yo u Activity for Home Study Go to P.114 in Parkin, M. 2019, Economics: Global and Southern African Perspectives, 13th Ed, Pearson Education UK; Demand and Supply | Economics in News: The Market for Orange Juice has Virtually Disappeared. Read the article on Pg.#114 and, Examine its Economic Analysis on Pg.#115 87 E las t ic it y – Conc ep t In economics, elasticity is the degree to which consumers (or producers) change their demand (or change supply) in response to price changes. Measure of elasticity varies depends on type of product (or service). Relatively elastic (responsive) Relatively inelastic (non-responsive) 88 P r ic e E las t ic it y Note, to calculate price elasticity of demand, we express change in price as a percentage of average price and change in quantity demanded as a percentage of average quantity 89 P r ic e E las t ic it y o f D emand To calculate price elasticity of a good you need to know quantity demanded of good at two different prices (when all other influences on buying plans remain same). ED = {(Q2 – Q1)/[(Q2 + Q1)/2]}/{(P2 - P1)/[(P2 + P1)]/2} 90 P r ic e E las t ic it y o f D emand To calculate price elasticity of a good you need to know quantity demanded of good at two different prices (when all other influences on buying plans remain the same). Price of a sandwich changes from $5 to $10 Quantity changes from 30 to 20 What is price elasticity of demand? !" #$" !"%$" ! Elasticity of demand = &" #' &"%' ! = # &" !' ' ).' = ! + ' ! $ +, / +0 = . = = −0.6 , 12 91 E las t ic it y of D emand Here range of elasticity of demand is listed – these are various degrees of elasticity – strength of response – based on the trigger: price; Degrees are: Ed >1 | Ed <1 | Ed = 1 Value Descriptive terms Ed = 0 Perfectly inelastic demand 0 < Ed < 1 Inelastic or relatively inelastic demand Ed = 1 Unitary elasticity, or unitarily elastic demand 1 < Ed < ∞ Elastic or relatively elastic demand Ed = ∞ Perfectly elastic demand 92 I nc o me & Cr o ss E las t ic it y o f D emand Income elasticity of demand Measures demand-response for a good when income changes of people, ceteris paribus. Ratio of percentage change in demand to percentage change in income; The cross-price elasticity of demand Measures demand-response for one good to change in price of another good. Percentage change in demand for A good in response to percentage change in price of B good. Public Transport Example Refer to your Study Guide and complete the task questions that follow 93 E las t ic it y of D emand Factors Influencing Elasticity of Demand v Substitutes v Closer the substitutes for a good or service, more elastic is the demand for it. v Income spent of a product v Greater the proportion of income spent on a good, more elastic (or less inelastic) is the demand for it. v The time elapsed since the price change v Longer the time elapse since price change, more elastic is demand 94 E las t ic it y of Su ppl y Degrees of Supply Elasticity 95 E las t ic it y of Su ppl y Factors Affecting Price Elasticity of Supply v Time Factor: v Short Period – relatively less elastic (adjustments costly) v Long Period – more elastic (blessed with time) v Nature of Commodity: v Perishable Goods – relatively less elastic (empty inventory quickly) v Durable Goods – more elastic (inventory lasts longer) v Production Technique: v Complex Production Technique – supply remains inelastic (expensive to change) v Simple Production Technique – supply is elastic (ease of change) 96 E las t ic it y of Su ppl y – Fac t o r s I m pac t Apply These Factors to Specific Industry v Spare Production Capacity: If plenty spare capacity business can increase output without increasing cost, supply remain elastic in response to change in demand v Stocks of Finished Products & Components: If stocks of finished and inventory at high level firm capable to respond to change in demand; supply remain elastic; perishable commodities harder/expensive to store v Ease of Factor Substitution / Mobility: If capital / labour are mobile, elasticity of supply high; resources can be shifted to meet excess demand – relocating labour to different tasks; v Time Period and Production Speed: Supply is price elasticity if firm is allowed longer time to adjust its production levels; 97 Production & Cost 98 Relat ionship Be t ween P r odu c t ion & Cos t Three Important Concepts q Short and Long Run (Periods of time) q Short-run: period of less than 1 year; q Long-run: period greater than 1 year; q Increasing and diminishing marginal returns q Economies and diseconomies of scale 99 Shor t A nd L ong Ru n Profiting in Long-run v Organisations make decisions with objective of achieving maximum shareholder value; v Employees of the firm are agents who are accountable to their shareholders; v Decisions relating to maximum attainable profit become critical; v Particularly those that affect the long-run prospects of the firm. 100 Shor t Ru n Time Frame q Time frame where quantity of at least one factor of production is fixed; qFor most firms, capital, land, and entrepreneurship are fixed; qLabour is variable factor of production; q We call fixed factors of production “firm’s factory.” q A restaurant might employ additional cooks due to seasonal demand (short-run); but endure cost of Factors of Production that can’t be changed; 101 L o ng Ru n Time Frame v A time frame in which quantities of all factors of production can be varied. v Long run is a period in which firm can change its factory; v In long run restaurant might open second and third outlets; all factors of production vary; v There are minimal fixed costs and profit can be maximised 102 Beha vior of Cos t s TABLE: PRODUCTION SCHEDULE Total Fixed Costs Total Variable Costs Total Cost Labour (workers per day) Output (sweaters per day) A 0 0 25 0 25 B 1 4 25 25 50 C 2 10 25 50 75 D 3 13 25 75 100 E 4 15 25 100 125 F 5 16 25 125 150 Dollars per day 103 Sc hedu le of Aver ag e Cos t and Mar ginal Cos t Labour (workers per day) Output (sweaters per day) Total Fixed Costs Total Variable Costs Total Cost Marginal Cost (Calculated as the 8.33 in example earlier) Dollars per day Average Fixed Cost Average Variable Cost Average Total Cost Dollars per sweater A 0 0 25 0 25 0 - - - B 1 4 25 25 50 6.25 6.25 6.25 12.50 C 2 10 25 50 75 4.17 2.50 5.00 7.50 D 3 13 25 75 100 8.33 1.92 5.77 7.69 E 4 15 25 100 125 12.5 1.67 6.67 8.33 F 5 16 25 125 150 25 1.56 7.81 9.38 Change of Quantity Change of Cost Marginal Cost 0 to 4 = Change - 4 Cost Added 25 25 / 4 = 6.25 4 to 10 Change - 6 Cost added 25 25/ / 6 = 4.17 10 to 13 Change -3 Cost added 25 25 / 3 = 8.33 13 to 15 Change -2 Cost added 25 25 / 2 = 12.5 15 to 16 Change - 1 Cost added 25 25 / 1 = 25 MR 104 Re t u r ns t o Sc ale C onc ep t Laws of returns to scale a set of three interrelated laws: v Law of increasing returns to scale – output increases by more than proportional change in inputs; v Law of constant returns to scale – output increases by same proportional change as all inputs change; and v Law of diminishing returns to scale – output increases by less than proportional change in inputs. 105 I nc r easing and D iminishing Mar ginal Re t u r ns Two Key Relationship Exist Between Production & Cost • Increasing and, • Diminishing marginal returns. Marginal product of labour is increase in total product that results from one-unit increase in quantity of labour employed, with all other inputs remaining same. A case of increasing, constant & diminishing returns to scale 106 Re t u r ns t o Sc ale: Res t au r ant Case Restaurant employs one cook; kitchen has capacity for two cooks; restaurant decides to add takeaway service to its offerings. Takeaway orders increase; additional cooks added to complement. With two cooks, marginal product rises; on employing third, fourth, and fifth cooks total product increases, but marginal output declines (e.g. cooks are getting in each other’s way; insufficient equipment; increasing waiting time, etc). Cooks Total product Marginal Product 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 20 50 (20 + 30) 75 (50 + 25) 95 (75 + 20) 110 (95 + 15) 20 30 25 20 15 107 E xam ple – Res t au r ant – Task 4 Yo u Follow example of a restaurant given in your Study Guide: Cooks Total product Marginal product As you saw with restaurant example, most production processes experience increasing marginal returns initially, but “all production processes eventually reach a point of diminishing marginal returns” 108 L a w o f D iminishing Mar ginal Re t u r ns v When marginal product of an additional worker is less than marginal product of previous worker. v Diminishing marginal returns: more workers using same capital; working in same space. v More workers added, very less for additional workers to do productive job. v Law of diminishing returns: applies only in short run; long run, firms increase size, relocate to bigger premises, employ more capital/equipment 109 E c onomies and D isec onomies of Sc ale Scale Economies Economies of scale (or economies of large scale) are: q Efficiencies achieved through size of production (e.g. costs are reduced over large production volumes) q Example – automobile, ICT and peripherals etc.; Major reasons for presence of economies of scale include: q Division of tasks (increased specialisation per unit) q Skilled and experienced employees per unit (learning curve) q Reduction in waste 110 E c onomies and D isec onomies of Sc ale Diseconomies of Scale Exist Through q Difficulties in control and supervision (monitoring productivity and quality of output across thousands of employees imperfect and expensive) q Slow decision making due to excessive size of administration q Low employee motivation (e.g. just a number; sense of alienation); 111 Sc hools of E c onomic Thou ght SG# 18 Selection of well-known economic thoughts categorised for reference; An explanation of each of these is beyond the scope of this course Modern Schools of Thought (18th Century) Economic System Classical Adam Smith, Ricardo, Malthus Capitalism and State Capitalism Marxism (Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels) Communism Neoclassical (William Jevons, Carl Menger and Leon Walras); preceded by classical thought Socialism Keynesian (John Maynard Keynes) Shock Therapy (group of economic policies to liberalize economy) New Classical (Lucas Robert, Milton Friedman) 112 Sc hools of E c onomic Thou ght SG# 18 Economic Cycles Growth Keynesian Neoclassical Growth (Labor Capital & Tech led Monetarism New Growth Theory (Economic growth results in The Phillips Curve Creative Destruction (Schumpeter) Permanent Income Hypothesis (Consumption spending) Human Capital (incentive in seeking HC) Rational Expectation (Decisions taken based on best available info) Rule of Law (functions based on rules) Time Consistency (Incentive to make and keep commitments is same) Limits of Growth (economic growth limited by economic growth) unlimited human wants & desires) nature set limits; derived on scarcity of resources) Financial Accelerator (Financial market and economic conditions form a loop of reinforcement producing boom & bust periods) Financial Instability Hypothesis (Prolonged prosperity in capitalist economy mover from stable finance structure (hedge fund) to instable structure driven by (Ponzi-finance) speculative tendencies Lender of Last Resort (Central banks of a country step in to support banks and financial institutions facing liquidity crises; coined by Sir Walter Bagehot) 113 Sc hools of E c onomic Thou ght Choice Global Trade • Comparative advantage • Heckscher-Ohlin trade model • Optimal Currency Area • The Impossible Trinity • New Trade theory (focus on (Trilemma) is independent monetary policy; fixed exchange rate and free capital flows (export product easy to produce) economies of scale) and (network effects: more users more the value from using the product; MS Office, Mobile Apps;) • Purchasing power parity Tax and Spend Policies •Tax incidence (division of tax between buyer & seller) •Excess burden (cost of tax exceeds tax raised) •Supply-side economics (supply induced economic growth; Arthur Laffer) •Crowding out (excess govt borrowing can drive private enterprise out of capital market driving up interest rate) SG# 19 •Rational choice theory (human beings are rational decision makers) •Game theory (optimal decision-making of independent and competing actors in a strategic setting based on individual pay-offs) •Public choice (Govt. decisions in public interest but benefits politicians too) •Expected utility theory (attain utility under any circumstances) •Prospect theory (loss aversion; investors weights more on perceived gains than losses) Markets • Invisible Hand • Marginalism • Tragedy of commons (over consumption of resources of society by a few individuals) • Property rights • Polluter Pays Principle • Adverse Selection (seller knows more; Lemon market) • Moral hazard (risky behaviour based on guaranteed rescue) • Efficient Market Hypothesis • Rent seeking 114 SEMESTER TEST – 1 Theme 3.3 Learning outcomes v Understand the task of economics and distinctions between micro and macroeconomics v Analyze relationships between demand, supply and market equilibrium v Show relationships between production and cost 115 End of Unit Microeconomics 116 Macroeconomics 117 Cir c u lar F low of I nc ome & E xpendit u r e Scenario in an Economy SG# 55 v Households that make consumption expenditures (C) v Firms that make investments (I) v Governments (G) buy Goods & Services, Taxes, Assistance v The rest of the world that buys net exports (X – M) v Firms that pay incomes to households (Y) 118 Cir c u lar F low of I nc ome & E xpendit u r e SG#15 Economic Entities: Households Income Expenses Firms/Businesses Govt. Rest of World (Foreign Sector) 119 Cir c u lar F low of I nc ome & E xpendit u r e SG#15 Economic Entities: Households Firms/Businesses Govt. Rest of World (Foreign Sector) Centre: Financial Sector 120 Mac r o ec o no m ic S c ho o ls o f Tho u ght Developments in Macroeconomics SG# 47 v Classical: Hold prices, wages, and rates flexible; markets always clear all goods and services available for sale “invisible hand”; a metaphor for unseen forces moving free market economy; individual self-interest and freedom of production as well as consumption, best interest of society, as a whole, are fulfilled. v Keynesian: largely founded on basis of works of John Maynard Keynes; focus on aggregate demand as principal factor in unemployment and business cycle. termed “laissez-faire” no government intervention in economy; makes a case for greater levels of government intervention only in recession; government spending to offset fall in private investment. v Monetarists: The Monetarist school is largely credited to the works of Milton Friedman. Monetarist economists believe that the role of government is to control inflation by controlling the money supply. 121 Mac r o ec o no m ic S c ho o ls o f Tho u ght Developments in Macroeconomics SG# 47-48 v New Keynesian: attempts to add micro foundations to traditional Keynesian economic theories. accept households firms operate on rational expectations; maintains variety of market failures, including “sticky” prices and wages that is resists change; prices seldom change despite changes in input cost or demand patterns; on wages, workers tend to respond slowly to changes in performance of company or economy. v Neo-Classical: assumes people have rational expectations, strive maximise utility; people act independently basis of all information they can attain. 122 Mac r o ec o no m ic S c ho o ls o f Tho u ght Developments in Macroeconomics SG# 48 v New Classical: built on neoclassical school give importance to micro; models that behaviour; assume agents maximise their utility have rational expectations; macro strives to provide neoclassical micro foundations for its analysis; rivals new Keynesian school, uses price stickiness and imperfect competition to generate macro models like Keynesian; believe market clears at all times; v Austrian: Older school, believes human behaviour is too idiosyncratic to model with math; minimal government intervention best; contradicts Keynesian economics; has useful theories on business cycle, implications of capital intensity, importance of time, opportunity costs in determining consumption and value; 123 Agg r eg at e I nc o me = Agg r eg at e E xpendit u r e SG# 49 The Economic Identity ! = #$ ! = % + ' + ( + (* − ,) Economic Identities The Meaning ! Income / Gross Domestic Product / Gross National Income #$ Aggregate Expenditure % Consumption – Private and Public ' Investments – Private and Public ( Govt. Expenditure (Revenue expense, transfer of benefits) (* − ,) Net Exports – Exports – Imports (Current Account Deficit) 124 Agg r eg at e I nc o me = Agg r eg at e E xpendit u r e SG# 51 The Economic Identity – Two Factor Economy – Firms & Households Firms rent Factors of Production Two Factor Economy Model Factor Market Household Firms Firms Receives Sales Income Households Receive Rent Goods Market Households Pay for Goods (Services) ! = #$ ! = % + ' + ( + (* − ,) We will expand this 125 Agg r eg at e I nc o me = Agg r eg at e E xpendit u r e SG# 52 - 53 The Economic Identity – Two Factor Economy – Firms & Households ! = #$ This means income = expenditure ! = % + ' + ( + (* − ,) This is a full GDP Identity ! = % + ' + ( + (* − ,) This is GDP Identity for 2 Factor Economy ! = (% + ') + ( + (* − ,) . + /' %=% Consumption = Autonomous consumption (subsistence) + Induced consumption based on Income (travel, car, house, luxury purchases); Therefore, it is MPC a factor of say, 0.5 or 0.3 etc; 0 = '1 Investment = Autonomous Investment (automatic) # = % + ' Expenditure = Consumption & Investment . + '1) 23 (% + ') ! = # = (% Equilibrium Condition is met with Income is Equal to Expenditure ∴!= %+' . + 65 + '1 5=% . + '1 ∴ 5−65= % This is Keynesian Marginal Propensity to Consume . + 65) = MPC (% . + '1 ∴ (1−6)5= % ∴ 50 = 7 78/ . + '1) (% 126 Agg r eg at e I nc o me = Agg r eg at e E xpendit u r e The Economic Identity – Three Factor Economy – Firms, Households & Govt. Factor Market Firms rent Factors of Production Three Factor Economy Model Household Govt. Assistance Assistance Firms Receives Sales Income Households Receive Rent Tax Tax Firms SG# 53 Goods Market Households Pay for Goods (Services) ! = #$ ! = % + ' + ( + (* − ,) We will expand this 127 Agg r eg at e I nc o me = Agg r eg at e E xpendit u r e SG# 54 The Economic Identity – Three Factor Economy – Firms, Households & Govt. ! = #$ This means income = expenditure ! = % + ' + ( + (* − ,) This is a full GDP Identity ! = % + ' + ( + (* − ,) This is GDP Identity for 3 Factor Economy ! = (% + ' + () . + /' %=% Consumption = Autonomous consumption (subsistence) + Induced consumption based on Income (travel, car, house, luxury purchases); Therefore, it is MPC a factor of say, 0.5 or 0.3 etc. + Govt. Exp. 0 = '1 Investment = Autonomous Investment (automatic) Expenditure = Consumption # = % + ' + ( & Investment + Govt. Exp. .) ! = (% + '1 + ( Equilibrium Condition is met with Income is Equal to Expenditure . + 32)+ '1 + ( .) ∴ ! = (% . + 32 + '. + ( . 2=% . + '1 + +( . ∴ 2−32= % . + '. + +( . ∴ (1−3)2= % ∴ 20 = 5 56/ This is Keynesian Marginal Propensity to Consume . + 32) = MPC (% . + '1) + +( . (% 128 E c onomic Indic at or s Analysis of Economic Performance & Predictions of Future Performance of Economies v Unemployment rate, inflation rate, GDP, forex, etc. v Characteristics: v Pro-cyclic Indicators: Move in same direction of economy; GDP, Exports etc. v Counter-cyclic Indicators: Move in opposite direction of economy; unemployment v Leading Indicators: Change before economy changes: manufacturing, consumer confidence v Lagging Indicators: Do not change direction for a few months: consumer price inflation and unemployment trends; v Coincident Indicators: Move at the same pace/time as economy – GDP 129 Cir c u lar F low of I nc o me & E xpendit u r e SG#15 Household Firms Income Expenses Government Foreign Sector 130 Gr o ss D o m es t ic P r o du c t Key Economic Indicator SG# 55 v GDP - primary indicator of health of country’s economy (due to decreasing unemployment and increasing wages) v Expenditure approach [C + I + G + (X – M)] v Income approach (summing incomes firms pay households for services of factors of production rented; e.g. wages for labour, interest for capital, rent for land, and profit for entrepreneurship). The modern-day GDP formula was systematically produced by Simon Kuznets in his report to US Congress with the help of US Dept. of Commerce, in 1934 131 Cir c u lar F low of I nc o me & E xpendit u r e Expenditure Method Expenditure Method SG#15 Items Symbol USD (2016) Percentage Personal Consumption Exp. C 12,758 68.7 Gross Private Dom. Investment I 3,036 16.3 Govt Expenditure G 3,277 17.7 Net Exports (Export Import) X–M -502 -2.7 GDP Exp. Method Y 18,569 100 of GDP 132 Cir c u lar F low of I nc o me & E x pendit u r e USD (2016) Percentage of GDP Employee Compensation 10,085 54.3 Net Interest 676 3.6 Rental Income 705 3.8 Corporate Profits 1,676 9.0 Proprietor’s Income 1418 7.7 Net Domestic Income at Factor Cost 14,560 78.4 Indirect Taxes Less Subsidies 1,336 7.2 Net Domestic Income at Market Place 15,896 85.6 Depreciation 2,910 15.7 GDP Income Approach 18,806 101.3 Statistical Errors -237 -1.3 GDP Expenditure Method 18,569 100 Items Income Method Income Method SG#15 133 GD P o f S o u t h A f r ic a – 2010 - 2020 SG# 56 Trading Economics 2020 Population of South Africa – 59.4 Mn. 134 GD P o f U nit ed K ing do m – 2010 - 2020 Trading Economics 2020 Population of United Kingdom – 67.3 Mn. 135 GD P o f I ndia – 2010 - 2020 SG# 57 Trading Economics 2020 Population of India – 1.38 Bn. 136 Measu r es o f GD P Inflation Matters SG# 57 v Nominal GDP - measure of total quantity of goods & services economy produces affected by changes in prices of those goods and services; uses current market price to estimate GDP; v Real GDP - measure of total quantity of goods & services economy produces not affected by price changes of those goods and services. v Economists use it to make real (actual) comparisons of the nation’s change in outputs / GDP (also known as constant-price GDP and inflation-corrected GDP) 137 GD P B ase Year - 2018 - Task 4 Yo u Year Price of a Lollipop Quantity of Lollipops Price of a Pie Quantity of Pies 2018 R4 10 R5 15 2019 R5 15 R6 10 2020 R6 20 R7 50 Year Price * Quantity Total Price * Quantity Total Price * Quantity Total SG# 58 Nominal GDP for year 2018 2019 2020 Year Price * Quantity Total Real GDP for year 2018 2019 2020 138 GD P – Gr o ss D o m es t ic P r o du c t SG# 58 Key Economic Indicator – Nominal and Real Year Price of a hot dog Quantity of hot dogs Price of a burger Quantity of burgers 2016 R1 100 R2 50 2017 R2 150 R3 100 2018 R3 200 R4 150 Price Quantity Nominal GDP for year Year Price Quantity 2016 (R1 x 100) = R100 (R2 x 50) = R100 R 200 2017 (R2 x 150) = R300 (R3 x 100) = R300 R 600 2018 (R3 x 200) = R600 (R4 x 150) = R600 R1 200 Nominal GDP considers current prices – price prevalent in the year 139 GD P – Gr o ss D o m es t ic P r o du c t SG# 58 Key Economic Indicator – Nominal and Real Year Price of a hot dog Quantity of hot dogs Price of a burger Quantity of burgers 2016 R1 100 R2 50 2017 R2 150 R3 100 2018 R3 200 R4 150 Price Quantity Nominal GDP for year Year Price Quantity 2016 (R1 x 100) = R100 (R2 x 50) = R100 R 200 2017 (R1 x 150) = R150 (R2 x 100) = R200 R 350 2018 (R1 x 200) = R200 (R2 x 150) = R300 R 500 Real GDP considers constant prices – price prevalent in the “base” year – here it is 2016 140 Gr o ss D o m es t ic P r o du c t SG# 59 Estimation of GDP Deflator !"#$%&' ()* v GDP Deflator = - .// +,&' (*) Year Calculation GDP Deflator 2013 (R200 / R200) x 100 (R600 / R350) x 100 (R1200 / R500) x 100 100 (always 100) 2014 2015 171 240 141 Gr o ss D o m es t ic P r o du c t SG# 59 Estimation of GDP Growth -.(&#/ 0 − -.(&#/ 2 !"#$#%&" '(#)*+ = 3 244 -.(&#/ 2 Economic Growth: 5 2060 7$ 8 5 209: 7$ 5 209: 7$ 3 244 9; 3 244 209: 0.03079 3 244 Real Economic Growth: 3.079 % Real GDP (approx. 3.1%) 142 Gr o ss D o m es t ic P r o du c t Some Uses and Limitations SG# 59 - 60 v Uses for GDP v Standard of living over time v Business cycles v Limitations of Real GDP v Different currencies v Purchasing power parity 143 L imit at io ns o f Real GD P Some Uses and Limitations SG# 61 v Firstly, real GDP of one country must be converted into same currency units as real GDP of other country (typically, USD is used) v Secondly, goods and services in both countries must be valued at same prices, e.g. using purchasing power parity (PPP). For PPP Refer: Economists Big Mac Index: realistic FX Rates Big Mac in SA: R.33.50; in India: 245; in PPP terms INR/R = 7.31 Market FX Rate: INR / Rand = 5.25 (median) 144 Agg r eg at e D emand AD shows quantities of Real GDP buyers collectively buys at different price levels Is downward sloping but not for same reason as micro-demand curve A downward sloping aggregate demand curve means when price level drops, quantity of output demanded increases; national income increases; SG# 61 Aggregate Demand shifts Determinants of Aggregate Demand v Consumer wealth v Household indebtedness v Taxes v Consumer expectations v Real interest rates v Real interest rate & Expectations of Returns Effect of Net Exports on Aggregate Demand v Foreign incomes and Exchange rate (depreciation) 145 Agg r eg at e Su ppl y In long run economy uses all factors of production efficiently, SG# 62- 63 ∴ Long run AS is a vertical line at potential GDP. Potential output – highest level of Real GDP sustainable over long term. Determinants of Aggregate Supply Factors other than price level shifts supply curve v Prices of factors of production: v Technology: v Exchange rate: v Business taxes can Price of labour, capital, land changes AS Curve shifts left Value of the Rand decreases, this increases the cost of importing foreign factors of production; Increase in technology shifts AS curve shift right; Affect output decisions of firms curve shift AS 146 Shor t - r u n E q u ilibr iu m Short run-in macroeconomic analysis, market economic condition changes, prices (& wages) fail to adjust quickly to maintain equilibrium; SG# 62- 63 Failure of equilibrium cause long periods of shortage / surplus; economy fails to achieve natural employment and potential output. Occurs when Real GDP demand is equal to GDP supply. SRAS Price level SRAD Short-run Equilibrium Output 147 L o ng- r u n E q u ilibr iu m Long-run (LR) macroeconomic equilibrium when Actual GDP = Potential GDP SG# 64 When Real GDP > Potential GDP, is inflationary gap; Real GDP < Potential GDP is recessionary gap Real GDP determined when LR AD Curve intersect LR AS Curve. Point of LR macroeconomic equilibrium where economy achieve full potential output LRAS Price level LRAD Short-run Equilibrium Output 148 E c onomic Cyc les – E xpand & Cont r ac t Economic fluctuation: Btw periods of expansion (growth) & contraction (recession) SG# 65 Economic indicators: GDP, Interest rates, Employment, Consumer spending Four stages of economic cycle: Expansion, economy growth rapid, interest rates low, production increases, inflation builds-up. Peak is when growth is Max; imbalances in economy needs corrected; Correction occurs with contraction: growth slows, employment falls, prices stagnate; Trough is reached when economy hits lowest point and growth recovers Peak Peak Expansion Expansion Expansion Contraction Trough Contraction Trough 149 Consu mer P r ic e I ndex and I nf lat ion SG# 65 v The CPI is measure of average price level of consumer goods and services purchased by households. v Used as key indicator of price changes: v In economy v In standard of living (tells about value of money in wallet) v South Africa – CPI basket: check www.statssa.gov.za (latest) !"$0 "1 !), 23$4'0 30 !%(('#0 )(*+'$ !"#$%&'( )(*+' ,#-'. = . 566 !"$0 "1 !), 23$4'0 30 23$' )'(*"- )(*+'$ 150 Biases in Consu mer P r ic e I nf lat ion How Bias Impact Estimation of CPI q New Goods: Ignores new goods introduced in market; q Unmeasured Quality Changes: Does not account for quality and value addition; q Substitution bias: Preference over cheaper alternatives unaccounted; q Outlet substitution bias: Use of Discount and Convenience Store unaccounted; 151 CP I and I nf lat ion & Cau ses SG# 62 ,-! &.'/ 0*%1 − ,-! $%/& 0*%1 !"#$%&'(" )%&* = 3 455 ,-! $%/& 0*%1 v Demand-pull Inflation Aggregate Demand > Productive Capacity in economy; Central bank increases money supply through lower reserves (monetary policy); v Cost-push Inflation When cost of factors of production increases; Wage increases (under union pressure); Supply shocks or constraints (Ukraine- Russian conflict; China’s Covid restrictions) v Monetarist Approach Sustained high economic growth causes inflation; view of quantify theory of money – speed of money 152 I nf lat io n – T ypes Two Forms of Inflation – PPI and CPI SG# 66 - 67 v PPI: Producer Price Index – this is price of factors of production at factory gate; v Useful for computation of cost of intermediate goods; feeding into CPI; (called wholesale price index (WPI) in some countries) v CPI: Consumer Price Index: prices consumers pays at retain stores; 153 I nf lat io n – P ic t o r ial P r esent at io n Food inflation 154 E f f ec t s of Inf lat ion v Distribution Effects – Benefits borrowers; costs lenders; real-value SG# 67 - 68 of money is reduced; v Economic Effects – decreased economic growth, higher unemployment; productive investment replaced by speculative practices for maintenance of real value of their wealth v Social & Political Effects – Cause different groups to blame each other; deteriorating standards of living cause political unrest 155 D ef lat ion & Cau ses SG# 67 - 68 General decline in prices for goods and services; money supply and credit in economy contracts; & a concern for economists Causes purchasing power to rise over time nominal costs of capital, labour, goods, and services to fall; benefits consumers with more purchasing power with same nominal income Opposite of inflation and is negative; harms borrowers, pay-off debts worth more than they borrowed 156 Mo ney S u ppl y Vital Three Functions v Medium of exchange: vCurrency - physical notes and coins in different currencies; (USD, ZAR) vDemand Deposits - money used to make / receive payments; v Unit of account: vMeasure for stating price of goods and services; vPrice of a kilogram of fillet steak R105 at one supermarket and R85 at another; v Store of value: vCan be held and exchanged for goods and services at later date; vTo use it as a store of value low inflation rate needed; (held as savings) 157 L iq u idit y and Mo ne t ar y Agg r eg at es Degrees of Liquidity High M0 & M1: (highest liquidity): notes & coins in circulation & demand Liquidity deposits (cheque & transmission, demand deposits); M2: M1 + Short-term time deposits + money market accounts of 24 hour withdraw limit; (less liquid than M1) M3: M2 + Long-term time deposits + money market accounts longer than 24 hour limit; (less liquid than M2) M4: (lowest liquidity) M3 + other financial assets Least Liquidity 158 E c onomic Sec t or s South African Economy – Political Structure v Republic of South Africa has a constitution; her supreme law; v Constitution of Republic of South Africa, 1996 defines SG# 70 composition of government and its operations v Extent and composition of government expenditure are directly or indirectly outlined in Constitution. 159 E c onomic Sec t or s Constitutional Framework v Constitutional right to tax, levies; funds for constitutional duties v Sec. 75 allow money bills process (bills confer right to tax) v Parliament’s money bill makes tax, levies fair; v Tax payroll and workforce; v Tax on property; v Domestic tax on goods and services; v Tax on international trade transaction; and v Stamp duties and fees. v Central govt tax categories: v Tax income and profits (corporate); 160 E c onomic Sec t or s Public Economics v SG# 71 Public economics focuses on decisions around expenditure, taxation, financing, and regulation; v Public sector has regulation element implemented through law enactment and declaratory orders that result in different allocation of resources; v Views on role of government in an economy include q Individualistic or mechanistic view – models free-market economy; q Public interest, or collectivist or organic view – collectivism paramount q Most countries follow a combination of two views 161 E c onomic Sec t or s Composition of Public Sector SG# 72 - 73 v Central government (e.g. government departments), v General government (e.g. Provincial and Local governments) v Public sector, include public enterprises and corporations like Eskom, South African Airways; 162 E c onomic Sec t or s – SA– P u blic S ec t o r SG# 73 Central Govt. receive funds from budgets, levies, other non-tax income; Local & Provincial Govt. focus on service delivery; Politics influence expenses; financed from tax and charges on electricity and water. Entities borrow funds and repay from taxes. Public enterprises: Eskom, Transnet, SABC and SAA; Govt major, shareholder 163 E c onomic Sec t or s Resource: Allocation Distribution and Stabilization SG# 73 - 74 Allocative Role: Govt determine allocation of resources like: roads, education, healthcare etc.; Distributive Role: Free market results in unequal income distribution; Govt. intervention to correct this anomaly; benefits like state housing, public schools to bridge gap; Stabilization Role: market stabilization paramount; Govt. intervention to correct any market manipulation or market disorders; instruments: fiscal policy by govt.; monetary policy by central bank 164 E c onomic Sec t or s Two Other Sectors – Foreign and Monetary Sectors SG# 74 Foreign Sector: Consists imports and exports (trade), foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investments; transactions with external economies; affects domestic economy; if imports high, affects exchange rate: demand increase for foreign currency, rand depreciates; price of petrol and diesel increases, drives inflation above target; key to track developments in foreign sector 165 E c onomic Sec t or s Two Other Sectors – Foreign and Monetary Sectors SG# 74 Monetary Sector: Domain of central bank of any country; main instrument monetary policy and exchange control regulations; Objective is stability of prices & country’s currency; involves management of financial markets; 166 E c onomic Sec t or s Productivity Relationship Among Entities SG# 74 Productivity relationship among public, private, foreign, and financial sectors; v Public sector: goods and services such as roads, hospitals, schools, etc.; make laws to influence trade; v Private Sector: - involve trade (import and export) and financing activities; v Globalisation & Integration: goods, services & financial markets make relationships among public, private, foreign, and financial sectors inevitable; Cross-border investors look for economies which are less risky, well functioning well regulated; also look for policy stability and certainty. 167 F isc al Polic y & Mone t ar y Polic y Details Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy Principles Price Stability; Economic Growth; Full employment; Reduction of Inequality Price stability (stable inflation), stable interest rate regime; stable financial sector and foreign exchange rate; Definitions Deals with government revenue collection and expenditure to manage domestic economic affairs; Exercising monetary controls to ensure price stability, interest rate and FX rates in domestic economy Policy Tools National budget to manage financial affairs of national, provincial and local govt.; using tax rates or govt. expenditure policy including subsidies for economic management; Cash reserve ratio management of monetary aggregates; Repo-rate for interest rate management; apart from banking regulations Policy Maker Ministry of Finance / Govt. of South Africa and its Parliament South Africa Reserve Bank 168 F isc al Polic y Tax Revenue – Source of Govt. Funds SG# 75 v Taxes on income and profits (largest source of revenue for government; include taxes paid by individuals & businesses on their incomes – direct) v Domestic taxes on domestic goods and services (VAT, airport tax indirect) v Taxes on international trade and transaction (customs duties) v Taxes on payroll and workforce (skills development levy) v Taxes on property (transfer duties and estate duty) 169 F isc al Polic y – Gover nm ent B u dg e t Revenue balanced against govt. expenditure (budget) as: v SG# 76 Economic classification, type of expenditure incurred say, (payments such as government salaries, transfers and subsidies, and payments for capital assets) v Functional classification, categorize expense according to purpose or social objectives say, (education, defence, housing, etc. support reduction of income inequality) 170 P u blic N at io nal D ebt Public Finance v What a government borrows to make sure it can finance all its planned expenditure, i.e. make up its budget deficit. v A budget surplus, a government would not in principle need to increase its debt. v When debt is used to fund economic expansion, current and future generations stand to reap rewards. v Debt used to fuel consumption only presents advantages to the current generation. 171 SA Govt . B u dg e t Valu e In ZAR Million Source: Trading Economics, 2019 (Quarterly Data) 172 Mo ne t ar y Po lic y Mandate of Reserve Bank / Central Bank SG# 77 q Most important responsibility, influence over amount of money in circulation; q Aim is to create price stability q Price stability: situation whereby prices of goods and services offered in marketplace either change very slowly or do not change at all – factors affecting this include employment and inflation; 173 Mo ne t ar y Po lic y I ns t r u ment s Mandate of Reserve Bank / Central Bank SG# 78 v Accommodation policy: composed of changes in repo rate; other conditions like regulation of quantity of money through variations in cost of credit’ v Open Market policy: involves sale / purchase of domestic financial assets National T-bills / Govt. bonds) by SARB to influence interest rates and quantity of money; v Other Instruments: nonmarket measures – credit ceilings, deposit rate control, changes in hire purchase agreements; SARB intervenes in forex markets and public debt management; and moral suasion 174 Sou t h A f r ic a Reser ve Bank Policy Tools of SARB SG# 79 v Inflation Targeting: SA uses flexible inflation-targeting framework in 2000 (a 3% to 6% band) v Required Reserve Ratios: Banks required to maintain cash balance with S.A. Reserve bank as a 2.5% of few categorized deposits; v Repo Rate: Rate SA Reserve Bank charges banks for borrowing – measure to infuse liquidity (7.25%; revised in Jan’2023 by 25 bps) v Open-Market Operations: measure instituted to either remove excess liquidity or infuse liquidity in banking system 175 Sou t h A f r ic a Mone t ar y S t at s Key Stats – South Africa Reserve Bank •Reserve Requirement Ratio: Total Liabilities: South Africa, set as 2.5 % in Feb 2023 •South Africa Reserve Requirement Ratio data updated monthly, available Feb 1994 to Feb 2023 •The data is reported by CEIC Data # •In the latest reports, South Africa Money Supply M2 increased to 225.9 USD Bn. YoY in Jan 2023 •Foreign Exchange Reserves in South Africa was measured at 47.3 USD Bn. in Jan 2023. •The Foreign Exchange Reserves equalled 5.0 Months of Import in Jan 2023 •South Africa Domestic Credit reached 287.6 USD Bn. in Jan 2023, representing an increase of 10.3 % YoY •The country's Non Performing Loans Ratio stood at 4.7 % in Dec 2022, compared with the ratio of 4.6 % in the previous month •Household Debt of South Africa reached 40.7 % in Sep 2022, accounting for 40.7 % of the country's Nominal GDP Source # https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/south-africa/reserve-requirement-ratio https://www.bis.org/mc/currency_areas/za.htm (additional information BIS, Data) 176 Change in Repo Rate Open Market Operations Banks Stock Market Savings & Credit Services S.A. R. B. Financial Services Nonbanks Monetary Transmission of Interest Rates Ripple Effects of Insurance Cos 177 E xpansionar y & Cont r ac t ionar y Examining Fed Funds Rate - USA General logic behind why Fed changes target range of FFR: if banks pay a higher rate on money borrowed overnight from other banks, they’ll charge a higher interest rate on loans to their customers. When banks charge their customers higher rates, consumers and producers borrow less money, leads to less economic activity. This is contractionary monetary policy If Fed lowers target range of FFR, and banks now pay a lower rate on interbank loans, they’ll also lower interest rates they charge customers on loans. When banks charge their customers lower rates, producers and consumers borrow more money, which generates more economic activity. This is expansionary monetary policy Source: https://basu.substack.com/p/a-very-basic-primer-on-interest-rates#:~:text=The%20IORB%20rate%20is%20the,less%20than%20the%20IORB%20rate. 178 I nt er nat io nal Tr ade International Trade and Trade Theories SG# 80 - 81 v Absolute Advantage: Countries focus on products they can produce more efficiently and economically than other trading partners v Comparative Advantage: Based on opportunity cost (Mohr and Fourie, 2020). Theory suggests each country will tend to specialise in and export those goods in which it has low opportunity cost of production v New Trade Theory (Krugman in Pettinger, 2013): suggests a critical factor in determining international patterns of trade are substantial economies of scale and network effects that occur in key industries 179 I nt er nat io nal Tr ade International Trade Policy SG# 81 - 82 Trade Policy (Nations): Outlines protection measures to protect country’s domestic firms from foreign competition. Market size strongly influence foreign and domestic investment; changes in technology, liberalisation policies towards trade and investment; growing global supply chains by multinational enterprises (MNEs) make trade policies at home and host countries crucial in encouraging foreign and domestic investment Maximise contribution of investment to national development; national trade policy is complex process; requires decisions involving various levels of govt., companies, business associations, consumer organisations, trade unions, and civil society. 180 The South African Economy 181 Sou t h A f r ic an E c onomy The Context q Prudent fiscal monetary policies helped SA to weather global shocks (2008) q Abundant natural resources q Well-developed regulatory system q Established manufacturing base q World-class legal framework governing commerce, labour, and maritime issues q Laws on competition, copyright, patents, and banking regulation, to name a few, all conform to international norms and standards 182 Sou t h A f r ic an E c onomy The Context q Contains marked duality; with sophisticated financial and industrial economy, growing alongside an underdeveloped informal economy q “Second economy” presents both development opportunities and challenges q National Treasury point outs, “development not just about pursuit of growth, also about creating a more equitable future” 183 E f f ec t of SA F isc al Polic y v World Bank (2014) reported South Africa has lifted “3.6 million people out of poverty; cut extreme poverty by half, its use of fiscal policy;” v Achieved mainly through cash transfers such as child support, disability grants, and old age pensions; v South Africa’s National Development Plan sets ambitious targets of eliminating poverty and cutting Gini coefficient to 0.6 by 2030; {Gini Coefficient (2020) is 63 (ranges from 0 – 1)} 184 Sou t h A f r ic a – The Challeng es v To continue boosting economic growth, SA need to address infrastructure constraints (e.g. energy), broaden structural reforms if it is to succeed in further reducing high levels of unemployment and inequality; v Many new social policy proposals (e.g. National Health Insurance Scheme); v Possibility of a fiscal cliff (unable to sustain current or expanded spending levels on health, education, and welfare); 185 Task Q u es t io n / Ac t i vit y – Task 4 Yo u Refer to your study guide (Article) Why we need a new economic model 186 Task Q u es t io n / Ac t i vit y – Task 4 Yo u Sustainable Development What solution to future sustainability development can your propose for South Africa? 187 SA Mone t ar y Polic y – A n I ssu e The Debate Continues v Adopted flexible inflation targeting framework 14 years ago (3% to 6%) and success of this continues to be debated; v Flexible inflation targeting approach helped South African Reserve Bank respond to global turbulence and periods of slow growth at home; v However, not been easy – inflation not always been within target range (i.e. significant exchange rate changes and volatile oil prices have challenged framework); 188 SA Mone t ar y Polic y – A n I ssu e v Resistance to inflation-targeting framework from; example, labour movements (significant wage increases have inflationary effect on economy) v Monetary Policy Committee and intensive stakeholder consultations; v Following 25-basis point increase in repo rate in July 2014, Cosatu’s response was one of “bitter disappointment”, laying blame for low growth at door of conservative monetary and fiscal policies; 189 Sou t h A f r ic an E c onomy – Task 4 Yo u Key Facts – Explore and Populate The Fields (Use IMF or CIA Factbook) Region and population Size Growth Infrastructure Resources Global economic strategy Ease of doing business Sovereign ranking https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/south-africa/#economy 190 Practice Question Series 191 P Q # 1 | Fac t or s of P r odu c t ion & Inc ome q 4 Factors of Production & Income v LAND v Rental Income v LABOUR v Wage Income v CAPITAL v Interest Income v ENTREPRENEURSHIP v Profit Income 192 P Q # 2 | Cat egor ize GD P of Cou nt r y X Particulars Amount in Rand Serame bought a car from a savings costing: R250 Nicolette took her children for a movie show Bulelwa took her kids out for magic show and lunch Thembisile bought a new office to run her law firm R40 R35 R100 Mackinzie Investments gave financial assistance to Eskom R700 Kalipa Auto exported trucks to South Africa R200 Cosmo Mines & Metals, UK imported some Platinum from South Africa R120 Categorize these into GDP Identities 193 P Q # 3 | D emand- Su ppl y Sc hedu le & Gr aph Demand-Supply Schedule Price Quantity-D Quantity-S 10 500 100 15 400 200 20 300 300 25 200 400 30 100 500 Draw a graph from this demand – supply schedule Make a demand – supply schedule and explain Demand – Supply Graph 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1 2 Price 3 Quantity-D 4 5 Quantity-S Please note: You need NOT draw diagrams in QP 194 P Q # 4 | Cat egor ize GD P of Cou nt r y Z Particulars Amount in Rand T bought a study table 250 N went out for lunch S gifted a toy to child M started a new business 50 35 300 P invested in debenture issue by an airline 300 CAL exported t-shirts to South Africa 200 XRP imported gas from South Africa 135 Categorize these into GDP Identities 195 P Q # 5 | Fou r Sec t or s of an E c onomy Sectors Activities Households Lends factors of production; buys goods and services from goods market Firms Rents factors of production; pays income to factor owners Govt. Charges taxes and offers subsidies and assistance Rest of World Engages in exports and imports 196 P Q # 6 | T wo- sec t o r E c o no my Sectors Activities Households Lends factors of production; buys goods and services from goods market Firms Rents factors of production; pays income to factor owners 197 THANK YOU! gn i s o t r e R em em b ce n a d n e t t the a a te u l a v e d an register ss! a l c r u o y orm f n o i t a u The eval course is on the er d n u e g pa ASS. CL R U O Y E RAT 198 LLB Economics Question & Answer 199 T H A N K YO U 200