Chapter 10 Bond Prices and Yield Bodie, Kane, and Marcus Essentials of Investments 12th Edition © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 10.1 Bond Characteristics 1 Bond. • Security that obligates issuer to make payments to holder over time. Face Value ≡ Par Value. • Payment to bondholder at maturity of bond. Coupon Rate. • Bond’s annual interest payment per dollar of par value. Zero-Coupon Bond. • Pays no coupons, sells at discount, pays par value at maturity. © McGraw Hill 2 Figure 10.1 Prices/Yields of U.S. Treasury Bonds Maturity Coupon Bid Ask Change Asked Yield 30-Jun-21 1.125 99.054 99.060 −0.008 1.714 15-Nov-22 1.625 100.004 100.010 −0.028 1.622 15-Nov-25 2.250 103.000 103.040 −0.042 1.715 15-Nov-27 2.250 103.162 103.172 −0.044 1.822 15-Nov-27 6.125 132.144 132.154 −0.076 1.793 15-Feb-31 5.375 135.176 135.196 −0.080 1.888 15-Nov-40 4.250 134.032 134.052 −0.100 2.214 15-Nov-49 2.375 101.096 101.116 −0.088 2.323 Source: Wall Street Journal Online, November 15, 2019 © McGraw Hill 3 10.1 Bond Characteristics 2 Treasury Bonds and Notes: • Accrued interest and quoted bond prices. • Quoted prices do not include interest accruing between payment dates. Accrued Interest (A.I.) = Annual coupon payment Days since last coupon payment 2 Days separating coupon payments Example: A bond (par value = $1,000) makes semi-annual payments with a coupon rate of 6%. If 45 days have passed since the last coupon payment, what is the accrued interest? A.I . © McGraw Hill 45 $30 $7.42 182 4 Figure 10.2 Listing of Corporate Bonds Most Active Investment Grade Bonds Symbol Coupon Maturity Moody’s®/ S$P CVS HEALTH CORP CVS4607885 5.050% 03/25/2048 Baa2/BBB 114.865 113.151 113.784 −1.2350 4.206514 BOEING CO BA4866208 3.250% 02/01/2035 /A 104.678 103.634 104.242 −1.0690 2.899978 KEURIG DR PEPPER INC KDP4843943 3.551% 05/25/2021 /BBB 102.343 102.224 102.309 −0.0400 2.085152 BOEING CO BA4866206 2.700% 02/01/2027 /A 102.812 101.717 101.842 −0.7960 2.417044 GROUP INC MTU4657147 3.761% 07/26/2023 A1/ 105.817 105.243 105.243 −0.3170 2.304181 ALTRIA GROUP INC MO4403915 3.875% 09/16/2046 A3/BBB 91.051 89.224 90.692 0.021933 4.472984 HCA INC HCA4843309 5.250% 06/15/2049 Baa3/BBB– 109.588 108.408 108.408 −1.6770 4.716027 Issuer Name High Low Last Change Yield% MITSUBISHI UFJ FINL © McGraw Hill 5 10.1 Bond Characteristics 3 Corporate Bonds: • Callable bonds. • Call provisions on corporate bonds: May be repurchased by issuer at specified call price during call period. • Convertible bonds. • Allow bondholder to exchange bond for specified number of common stock shares. © McGraw Hill 6 10.1 Bond Characteristics 4 Corporate Bonds: • Puttable bonds. • Holder may choose to exchange for par value or to extend for given number of years. • Floating-rate bonds. • Coupon rates periodically reset according to specified market date. © McGraw Hill 7 10.1 Bond Characteristics 5 Preferred Stock: • Commonly pays fixed dividend. • Floating-rate preferred stock becoming more popular. • Dividends not normally tax-deductible. • Corporations that purchase other corporations’ preferred stock are taxed on only 30% of dividends received. © McGraw Hill 8 10.1 Bond Characteristics 6 Other Domestic Issuers: • State, local governments (municipal bonds). • Federal Home Loan Bank Board. • Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae). • Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae). • Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) . • Farm Credit agencies. © McGraw Hill 9 10.1 Bond Characteristics 7 International Bonds: • Foreign bonds. • Issued by borrower in different country than where bond sold. • Denominated in currency of market country. • Eurobonds. • Denominated in currency (usually that of issuing country) different than that of market. © McGraw Hill 10 10.1 Bond Characteristics 8 Innovation in the Bond Market: • Maturity. • Bonds conventionally issued with maturities up to 30 years. • Recently some countries issued bonds 50 to 100 years. • Inverse floaters. • Coupon rate falls when interest rates rise. • Asset-backed bonds. • Income from specified assets used to service debt. © McGraw Hill 11 10.1 Bond Characteristics 9 Innovation in the Bond Market: • Pay-in-kind bonds. • Issuers can pay interest in cash or additional bonds. • Catastrophe bonds. • Higher coupon rates to investors for taking on risk. © McGraw Hill 12 10.1 Bond Characteristics 10 Innovation in the Bond Market: • Indexed bonds. • Payments tied to general price index or price of a particular commodity. • Treasury Inflation Protected Securities IPS): Par value of bond increases with consumer price index. (T Nominal Return = Real Return = © McGraw Hill Interest Price Appreciation Initial Price 1 Nominal Return 1 1 Inflation 13 Table 10.1 TIPS, Principal and Interest Payments Time Inflation in Year Just Ended 0 Par Value Coupon Payment + Principal Repayment = Total Payment $1,000.00 1 2% 1,020.00 $40.80 0 $ 40.80 2 3 1,050.60 42.02 0 42.02 3 1 1,061.11 42.44 $1,061.11 1,103.55 © McGraw Hill 14 10.2 Bond Pricing 1 Bond value = Present value of coupons + Present par value. T Coupon Par Value t T (1 r ) (1 r ) t 1 Bond Value = • T = Maturity date. • r = discount rate. Bond Price = Coupon × Annuity Factor (r, t) + Par Value × PV Factor (r, T) 1 (1 r ) T 1 Coupon Par Value r (1 r )T © McGraw Hill 15 10.2 Bond Pricing 2 • Prices fall as market interest rate rises. • Interest rate fluctuations are primary source of bond market risk. • Bonds with longer maturities more sensitive to fluctuations in interest rate. © McGraw Hill 16 Figure 10.3 Inverse Relationship between Bond Prices and Yields Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 17 Table 10.2 Bond Prices at Different Interest Rates Bond Price at Given Market Interest Rate Time to Maturity 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1 year $1,059.11 $1,038.83 $1,019.1 3 $1,000.00 $981.41 10 years 1,541.37 1,327.03 1,148.77 1,000.00 875.38 20 years 1,985.04 1,547.11 1,231.15 1,000.00 828.41 30 years 2,348.65 1,695.22 1,276.76 1,000.00 810.71 © McGraw Hill 18 10.2 Bond Pricing 3 Bond Pricing between Coupon Dates. • Invoice price = Flat price + Accrued interest. Bond Pricing in Excel. • =PRICE (settlement date, maturity date, annual coupon rate, yield to maturity, redemption value as percent of par value, number of coupon payments per year). © McGraw Hill 19 Spreadsheet 10.1 Valuing Bonds Note: Spreadsheets available in Connect Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 20 10.3 Bond Yields 1 Yield to Maturity. • Discount rate that makes present value of bond’s payments equal to price. Current Yield. • Annual coupon divided by bond price. Premium Bonds. • Bonds selling above par value. Discount Bonds. • Bonds selling below par value. © McGraw Hill 21 Spreadsheet 10.2 Finding Yield to Maturity Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 22 10.3 Bond Yields 2 Yield to Call: • Calculated like yield to maturity. • Time until call replaces time until maturity; call price replaces par value. • Premium bonds more likely to be called than discount bonds. © McGraw Hill 23 Figure 10.4 Bond Prices: Callable and Straight Debt Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 24 10.3 Bond Yields 3 Realized compound return. • Compound rate of return on bond with all coupons reinvested until maturity. Horizon analysis. • Analysis of bond returns over multiyear horizon. • Based on forecasts of bond’s YTM and investment options. Reinvestment rate risk. • Uncertainty surrounding cumulative future value of reinvested coupon payments. © McGraw Hill 25 Figure 10.5 Growth of Invested Funds Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 26 10.4 Bond Prices Over Time 1 Yield to Maturity versus Holding Period Return. • Yield to maturity (YTM) measures average rate of return (RoR) if the bond is held to maturity. © McGraw Hill • Holding Period Return (HPR) is the rate over particular investment period. • HPR depends on market price at the end of the period. 27 Figure 10.6 Price Paths of Coupon Bonds in Case of Constant Market Interest Rates Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 28 10.4 Bond Prices Over Time 2 Zero-Coupon Bonds and Treasury STRIPS. • Zero-coupon bond. • Carries no coupons. • Provides all return in form of price appreciation. • Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities (STRIPS). • Oversees creation of zero-coupon bonds from coupon-bearing notes and bonds. © McGraw Hill 29 10.4 Bond Prices Over Time 3 After-Tax Returns: • Built-in price appreciation on original-issue discount bonds constitutes implicit interest payment to holder. • IRS calculates price appreciation schedule to determine taxable interest income for built-in appreciation. © McGraw Hill 30 Figure 10.7 Price of 30-Year Zero-Coupon Bond over Time at Yield to Maturity of 10% Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 31 10.5 Default Risk and Bond Pricing 1 Investment grade bond: • Rated BBB and above by S&P or Baa and above by Moody’s. Speculative grade or junk bond. • Rated BB or lower by S&P, Ba or lower by Moody’s, or unrated. © McGraw Hill 32 Figure 10.8 Bond Rating Classes Bond Ratings Very High Quality Hight Quality Speculative Very Poor Standard & Poor’s AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D Moody’s Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa C At times both Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s use adjustments to these ratings. S&P uses plus and minus signs: A+ is the strongest A rating and A− the weakest. Moody’s uses a 1, 2, or 3 designation, with 1 indicating the strongest. © McGraw Hill 33 10.5 Default Risk and Bond Pricing 2 Determinants of Bond Safety: • Coverage ratios. • Company earnings to fixed costs. • Leverage ratios. • Debt to equity. • Liquidity ratios. • Current: Current assets to current liabilities. • Quick: Assets excluding inventories to liabilities. © McGraw Hill 34 10.5 Default Risk and Bond Pricing 3 Determinants of Bond Safety: • Profitability ratios. • Measures of RoR on assets or equity. • Cash flow-to-debt ratio. • Total cash flow to outstanding debt. © McGraw Hill 35 Table 10.3 Financial Ratios and Default Risk Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B C EBITA/Assets (%) 12.3% 10.2% 10.8% 8.7% 8.5% 6.7% 4.1% Operating profit margin (%) 25.4% 17.4% 14.9% 12.0% 11.5% 9.0% 4.6% EBITA to interest coverage (multiple) 11.5 13.9 10.7 6.3 3.7 1.9 0.7 Debt/EBITDA (multiple) 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.9 3.7 5.2 8.1 Debt/(Debt + Equity) (%) 35.1% 31.0% 40.7% 46.4% 55.7% 65.8% 89.3% Funds from operations/Total debt (%) 41.5% 43.4% 34.1% 27.1% 19.9% 11.7% 4.6% Retained cash flow/net Debt (%) 31.4% 30.1% 27.3% 25.3% 19.7% 11.5% 5.1% Note: EBITA is earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization. Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics, Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations, December 2013. © McGraw Hill 36 10.5 Default Risk and Bond Pricing 4 Bond Indentures: • Indenture. • Defines contract between issuer and holder. • Sinking fund. • Indenture calling for issuer to periodically repurchase some proportion of outstanding bonds before maturity. © McGraw Hill 37 10.5 Default Risk and Bond Pricing 5 Bond Indentures: • Subordination clause. • Restrictions on additional borrowing stipulating senior bondholders paid first in event of bankruptcy. • Collateral. • Specific asset pledged against possible default. • Debenture. • Bond not backed by specific collateral. © McGraw Hill 38 10.5 Default Risk and Bond Pricing 6 Yield to Maturity and Default Risk. • Stated yield is maximum possible yield to maturity of bond. • Default premium. • Increment to promised yield that compensates investor for default risk. © McGraw Hill 39 Figure 10.9 Callable Bond: Apple Comment Description of Bond 1. Interest of 3.45% will be payable on February 9 and August 9 of each year. Thus, every 6 months each note will pay interest of (.0345/2) × $1,000 = $17.25. ISSUE: Apple Inc. 3.45% Notes 2. Investors will be repaid the $1,000 face value in 2045. DUE: February 9, 2045 3. Moody’s bond rating is Aa, the second-highest-quality rating. RATING: Aa 4. A trustee is appointed to look after investors’ interest. TRUSTEE: Issued under an indenture between Apple and The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company 5. The bonds are registered. The registrar keeps a record of who owns the bonds. REGISTERED: Issued in registered, book - entry form 6. The company is not obliged to repay any of the bonds on a regular basis before maturity. SINKING FUND: None 7. The company has the option to buy back the notes. The redemption price is the greater of $1,000 or a price that is determined by the value of an equivalent Treasury bond. CALLABLE: In whole or in part at any time 8. The notes are senior debt, ranking equally with all Apple’s other unsecured senior debt. SENIORITY 9. The notes are not secured; that is, no assets have been set aside to protect the noteholders in the event of default. However, if Apple sets aside assets to protect any other bondholders, the notes will also be secured by these assets. This is termed a negative pledge clause. SECURITY: The notes are unsecured. However, “if Apple shall incur, assume or guarantee any Debt, … it will secure … the debt securities then outstanding equally and ratably with … such Debt.” 10. The principal amount of the issue was $2 billion. The notes were sold at 99.11% of their principal value. OFFERED: $2,000,000,000 at 99.11% 11. The book runners are the managing underwriters to the issue and maintain the book of securities sold. JOINT BOOK - RUNNING MANAGERS: Goldman, Sachs; Deutsche Bank Securities © McGraw Hill 40 Figure 10.10 Yield Spreads among Corporate Bonds Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 41 10.5 Default Risk and Bond Pricing Credit Default Swaps (CDS). • Insurance policy on default risk of corporate bond or loan. • Designed to allow lenders to buy protection against losses on large loans. • Later used to speculate on financial health of companies. © McGraw Hill 42 Figure 10.11 Prices of CDS, Greece Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 43 10.6 The Yield Curve 1 Yield Curve. • Graph of yield to maturity as function of term to maturity. Term Structure of Interest Rates. • Relationship between yields to maturity and terms to maturity across bonds. Expectations Hypothesis. • Yields to maturity determined solely by expectations of future short-term interest rates. © McGraw Hill 44 Figure 10.12 Treasury Yield Curve Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 45 Figure 10.13 Returns to Two 2-Year Investment Strategies Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 46 10.6 The Yield Curve 2 Forward Rate. • Inferred short-term ROI for future period, makes expected total return of long-term bond equal to that of rolling over short-term bonds. (1 yn ) n (1 yn 1 ) n 1 (1 f n ) © McGraw Hill 47 10.6 The Yield Curve 3 Liquidity Preference Theory: • Investors demand risk premium on long-term bonds. • Liquidity premium. • Extra expected return demanded by investors as compensation for greater risk of long-term bonds. • Spread between forward ROI and expected short sale. f n E ( rn ) Liquidity Premium © McGraw Hill 48 Figure 10.14 Illustrative Yield Curves Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 49 Figure 10.15 Term Spread: Yields on 10-Year versus 90day Treasuries Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 50 End of Main Content © 2022 McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill. 51