Steve Tomczik
NRE-5210
9/27/2024
Can most of the United States really be Net-Zero by 2050? We currently live in a world
where energy is a premium, coal and other fossil fuels are the “base-load.” Solar and Wind have
come a long way but are still unreliable as a sole source. What is the answer? Net-Zero carbon
emissions is currently the goal of twenty-four states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.
Net-zero is a term that refers to CO2 production from electricity generation being offset or
replaced by clean energy.
When fossil fuels are burned the CO2 produced is measured per KW produced. In order
to reach Net-Zero, CO2 KWs need to be replaced or matched. Most fossil fuel power plants
(FFP) have an energy output between 1000-3500 MW (1-4GW). The largest FFP in the United
States is the coal-fired Robert W Scherer Power Plant in Juliette, Georgia at a whopping 3720
MWe (3.72 GWe). The largest solar project is currently the Mammoth Solar Farm boasts a
1.3GWe maximum output, residing on 13,000 acres in Pulaski County, Indiana (Plant Scherer is
on 3200 acres). There just is not enough space for solar alone, I won’t bother with wind those
statistics are even more despairing. How do we make up the difference if we kiss coal and
natural gas goodbye? With the most densely energy-packed fuel on the planet… …nuclear. Just
a handful of nuclear fuel pellets can outperform a top of the line solar panel at 100% for more
than five years. Acreage, however, is still at a premium and nuclear power plants take forever to
build.
What if I told you though, that there was already permitted and licensed, open space for
at least 60GW of new clean nuclear energy? That’s right, we could relatively quickly and
cheaply, expand the country’s clean energy generation and possibly reach a net zero goal, by
installing new nuclear at existing sites. Most sites could accommodate one or more 1GW, lightwater reactors such as the new Vogtle 3 and 4 plants in Georgia. If given the opportunity to use
Steve Tomczik
NRE-5210
9/27/2024
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) that number could grow to almost 100 GW. SMRs are smaller
versions of current operating plants or in some cases entirely unique designs. Some SMRs have
the ability to burn spent nuclear fuel while others can produce hydrogen as a byproduct as well
as medical isotopes. Both conventional and SMR plants, have innovative designs that allow
construction of secondary heat exchangers which could provide a heat source to the community.
As technology advances and AI becomes more widely used, data centers are becoming
more frequent occurrences. Data centers consume an enormous amount of energy anywhere from
1-100MW depending on the size usually 5,000-100,000 sq ft. This type of energy consumption is
really limiting the progress of reaching Net Zero production. Recently, Bill Gates made a
statement about using nuclear to power data centers. Gates is joining forces with the DOE to
fund a new SMR in Kemmerer, Wyoming, with a one-billion dollar investment into the
TerraPower designed Natrium Kemmer-1 Reactor, a 345 MW sodium fast reactor. Natrium 1 is
being constructed on a new site near the decommissioning Pacificorp Naughton Power
(774.4MW) coal plant. This is a net loss of generation, however a net positive for CO2 emissions
and Wyoming does not even have a net goal. For those states that do, in order to reach any Net
Zero goal, they should plan to be Net-Positive for zero-emission energy production to meet any
sort of deadline.
So how are states supposed to meet these deadlines? They probably shouldn’t have set
hard deadlines to start with… but that’s neither here nor there. If hydro, solar, wind, waves, tides
and any of the other “renewable” designs are to make up the required offset from fossil fueled
generation, the whole country is going to have to embrace windmills in their back yards and
solar panels on their roofs. They also should invest in a massive backup battery in the basement
because as we all know the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doth set. Bottom line up front,
Steve Tomczik
NRE-5210
9/27/2024
the current twenty-four and any future states that have a Net Zero dead line need to see nuclear
as an option and the federal regulators need to aid them in the licensing and permitting processes.
There are more than 80 designs for SMRs currently in some sort of development around
the world. Designs ranging from 1000 watts to 1000+MW, if planned correctly and permitted
properly several SMRs could be placed at any number of sites to offset or replace fossil fuel
generators. Recently the DOE in conjunction with the Oakridge National Laboratory performed a
study to determine if there were any sites that could host additional reactors. Setting base criteria
at a minimum of 600 MWe and situated on a currently operating or retired coal power plant
(CPP) or current nuclear power plant (NPP) sites.
The study examined 541 CPP sites across the nation and determined that there is potential
for 128-178 GWe at 145 CPP sites in 36 states. This potential is based on site and generator size,
either large reactors (>1000 MW) or a combination of small (600 MW) reactors. This impacts
thirteen of the states with Net Zero deadlines.
On the nuclear side, the United States has 54 NPP sites currently operating 94 reactor
plants. The survey identified units that were initially planned and not initially built, 49 plants
(41GWe) at 13 NPP sites. Of those plants, 29 (19GWe) were later built and are currently
operational, the remaining 20 (22 GWe) were cancelled between 1971 and 1990 due to cost.
Assuming that conditions still exist to support construction, new units could be viable at these
sites.
Between 2007 and 2009 several utilities submitted for a combined, construction and
operating license (COL). Vogtle 3 and Vogtle 4 were completed via the COL process, in total 18
COL were prepared and filed, five of these were proposed at new sites and not included in the
study. The remaining 12 COL encompass 17 new reactors with a total of 23 GWe.
Steve Tomczik
NRE-5210
9/27/2024
Merging the canceled or unbuilt plant results with the COL proposal data yields a
combined 20 sites with a potential for 31 of the Vogtle design reactors and a combined capacity
of 37.9 GWe, based on the original plans by the utilities. In addition, 18 of these 20 sites create
the potential to site 72 reactors rated at 600 MWe each for a total of 43.2 GWe. The remaining
34 sites were evaluated, providing 17 sites suitable for additional large single- or dual-unit
reactor plants, similar to the Vogtle units for a total of 21.2 GWe.
North Carolina (2050) stands to benefit the most from the Coal to Nuclear (C2N)
replacement theory. The study presented ten sites for 600MWe, five sites for 1000MWe, and
four sites that could install the same Vogtle design 1117 MWe reactors. That’s a total of 15,456
MWe (15.5 GWe) available to replace a portion of the FFP MW. Generators in North Carolina
that are CO2 producing include coal, natural gas, and biomass/industrial waste, Coal burners in
North Carolina represent 10,388.5 MWe and natural gas plants total 11,361.7 MWe. With some
quick math, those 19 sites could replace almost three-quarters (71.1%) of the CO2 producing
generation, by the state’s 2050 Net Zero deadline.
Several states with deadlines, unfortunately come nowhere near the North Carolina
numbers. Many of the eastern seaboard states such as New Jersey and Delaware, have already
done away with most coal burners and rely heavily on natural gas. Seventy-one percent of New
Jersey residents rely on natural gas. Replacing or supplementing that much fossil fuel energy is
no small task. New Jersey is trying with solar and wind, with mixed results.
As of 2022, the state was one of the largest producers of solar energy in the nation,
thanks to innovative projects such as the Canoe Brook floating solar farm. An 8.9 MWe, 17 acre,
double-sided array that is floating on a drinking water pond in Short Hills, New Jersey. Canoe
Brook is a fine example of ingenuity, finding open space where there appears none, however it is
Steve Tomczik
NRE-5210
9/27/2024
not going to save New Jersey alone. The state has also ventured into the off-shore wind
generation business and planned to have 7,500 MWe of said generation by 2035 with hopes of
reaching a total of 11,000 MWe by 2040. Recent developments in construction and costs have all
but dashed those hopes, with the Dutch construction company, Ørsted, abandoning two off-shore
projects Ocean Wind 1 and 2, a total loss of 2,248 MW.
New Jersey currently has two sites, Hope Creek Generating Station and Salem Nuclear
Power Plant, with a total of three reactors. Hope Creek the only potential site with an extra
600MWe, the state’s goal of 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035 is in serious jeopardy.
There are seven states with Net Zero deadlines that did not appear on either the CPP or
NPP list, Delaware (2050), Hawaii (2045), Massachusetts (2050), Maine (2050), Nevada (2050),
Rhode Island (2033), and Vermont (2035). These states as well as Washington DC (2032) and
Puerto Rico (2050) have no viable path to add substantial nuclear generation by their Net Zero
deadline.
In summary, the C2N study and the New Nuclear Capacity study showed a potential for a
large amount of clean, renewable energy. However, for the majority of states with Net Zero
deadlines it provides little to help them reach that goal.
Steve Tomczik
NRE-5210
9/27/2024
Appendix 1
References and Sources
1. Office of Nuclear Energy – Newsroom (https://www.energy.gov/newsroom)
a. “Nuclear Sites”
b. “SMR Design”
c. “Small Modular Reactor”
2. Google Scholar
a. “Nuclear vs Solar”
b. “Nuclear vs Wind”
c. “net-neutral”
d. “net-zero”
e. “net-neutral states”
f. “net-zero states”
3. Ceil-et-Terre.net
a. Canoe Brook Solar
4. Ørsted - us.orsted.com/news-archive
a. Ocean Wind 1 and Ocean Wind 2
5. Naval Nuclear Power Training, Operation and Maintenance, 1998-2018, Tomczik,
Steven J.