EC2137 : Derivatives Dr. Gaurav Mehta Lecture 1 DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 1 Module Outline &Contacts Module leader: Dr Gaurav Mehta • Office: Brookfield, 2.06. • Office Hours: Tuesday, 1:30pm-3:30pm (Appointment) • Email: gm360@leicester.ac.uk Lectures: In total 10 two-hour lectures. Seminars: Weekly from a week after next week. In total 5 seminars*. •In seminar groups you will discuss and solve problem sets. Mid Term Test (MCQs): 20% and Final Examination (On Campus): 80% DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 2 Module Contents Lecture 1, Week 26 What is a futures/forward contract? What are the mechanics of futures markets? Lecture 2, Week 27 Types of traders Hedging strategies using futures and forwards Lecture 3, Week 28 Derivation of the optimal hedge ratio Lecture 4, Week 29 Stock Index futures Lecture 5, Week 30 How do we price futures and forward contracts? Lecture 6, Week 32 Pricing of futures on stock indexes. Forwards and futures on currencies. Futures prices and expected future spot prices. Lecture 7, Week 33 Interest rate futures Lecture 8, Week 34 Introduction to Swaps Lecture 9, Week 35 Introduction to Options Lecture 10, Week 36 Revision of module material and going through the Mock exam DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 3 Textbook John C. Hull (2017) Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 9th edition. (other editions are also fine). The book and the table of contents can be accessed via reading lists for EC2137. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 4 This lecture: Introduction to derivatives. Futures markets and futures exchanges. Mechanics of the futures markets. Characteristics of futures and forwards contracts. Reading: Hull, CH1 (pages 1-10) and CH2. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 5 1. The Nature of Derivatives Derivatives play a key role in transferring risks in the economy. A derivative is an instrument, whose value depends on the values of other more basic underlying assets (e.g., a stock, index, commodity, interest bearing assets, etc.). DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 6 Examples of Derivatives o Futures Contract o Forward Contract o Swaps o Options We will focus in this module on Futures and Forward contracts, as well as become familiar with Swaps and Options. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 7 Examples of Derivatives Futures Contract: an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a certain time in the future for a certain price. Forward Contract: like a futures contract but traded in the Over the Counter markets (OTC).* Swap: an agreement between two parties to exchange cash flows at some time points in the future. Swaps are also OTC traded. Options: gives the holder the right to buy/ sell an asset at a certain price by a certain date. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 8 2. Futures Contracts • A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a certain time in the future for a certain price. By contrast in a spot contract there is an agreement to buy or sell the asset immediately (or within a very short period). • The futures prices for a particular contract is the price at which you agree to buy or sell at a future time. •It is determined by the supply and demand in the same way as a spot price. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 9 Futures: some examples One can trade futures contracts on most types of assets from: • commodities (sugar, grains, orange juice, oil, etc.) to • financial instruments, such as equities, bonds and indexes. • Some new types of futures contracts are constantly introduced by the exchanges. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 10 Convergence of Futures to Spot (Figure 2.1, page 28, Hull) • As the delivery period for a futures contract is approaching, the futures price converges to the spot price of the underlying asset. Futures Price Spot Price • Time When the delivery period is reached, the futures price is equal to (or is very close to) the spot price DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 11 Terminology The party that has agreed to buy has a long position The party that has agreed to sell has a short position DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 12 Examples of Futures Contracts Agreement to: ◦buy 100 oz. of gold @ US$2750/oz. in February ◦sell £62,500 @ 1.2500 US$/£ in March ◦sell 1,000 bbl. of oil @ US$85/bbl. in April DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 13 Example of entering into a futures contract It is June and you want to buy 5000 bushels of corn for September delivery. -> You contact your broker and he/she places a bid to the CME group*. Another trader makes an offer to sell 5000 bushels of corn for September delivery. The bid and the offer are matched by your brokers and a price is determined via laws of supply and demand. Suppose you make a bid to buy at 600 cents per bushel and the other trader offers to sell 625 cents per bushel. If the demand is less than the total offers for sale. Then the trade may be executed close to 600 cents per bushel. You hold a long position in the futures contract. The other trader (the seller of the corn) holds a short position in the futures contract. Note: Futures contract is a binding contract for both parties. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 14 Another Example January: an investor enters a long futures contract to buy 100 oz of gold @ $2,750 per oz in April April: the price of gold is $2,825 per oz What is the investor’s profit or loss here in April? DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 15 DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 16 Answer The profit is: (2,825- 2,750) * 100 = $ 7,500 [this is for 1 futures contract] since the long futures contract secured you a cheaper gold price than the actual spot price in that month. Note: we make here a simplifying assumption that gold would have been delivered to the long position holder in April (this is usually not the case in futures contracts, as we will discuss later). DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 17 3. Exchanges Trading Futures CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME); New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX); Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Intercontinental Exchange: - NYSE Euronext - in UK: London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE) and many more (see list at end of the Hull book on p.581). DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 18 Electronic Trading o Traditionally futures contracts have been traded using the open outcry system, where traders physically meet on the floor of the exchange. oThis has now been largely replaced by electronic trading and high frequency algorithmic trading is becoming an increasingly important part of the market See e.g.: Financial Times (2016) ‘CME calls time on New York open outcry options floor’ https://www.ft.com/content/33141038-01b9-11e6-99cb83242733f755 DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 19 Some emerging futures contracts – some FT news DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 20 Main characteristics of futures contracts 1. exchange traded (traded on official exchanges) 2. standardized (delivery, contract size, price, type of asset strictly specified). 3. settled daily (‘marking to market’) This to reflect the gains/losses as the futures prices change on daily basis. 4. delivery often does NOT take place* Futures contracts are usually “closed out” before maturity, i.e., the physical delivery of the asset does not take place. 5. Counterparty risk is almost non-existent (due to point 3). This is the risk of the short or long position holder not being able to fulfil his obligation and cover possible losses in the futures contract. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 21 4. Mechanics of futures markets: margins and daily settlement. We mentioned that futures contracts are Exchange traded An important aspect is that futures contracts are settled daily To reduce the risk of counterparty walking away (credit risk) the so-called margins are introduced. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 22 Margin A margin is cash or marketable securities deposited by an investor with his or her broker. The balance in the margin account is adjusted to reflect daily settlement. Margin minimizes the possibility of a loss through a default on a contract. We will do an example to define some different types of margins: - Initial margin. - Maintenance margin. - Variation margin and `Margin Call’ DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 23 Example of daily settlement and types of margins 1) On June the 5th you contact your broker to go long on 2 (two) December gold futures on NYMEX. This is the price 2) Price of futures, when you enter the contract is: $ 400/oz of December futures. 3) We assume the size of each contract: 100 oz 4) When entering the contract you place funds (initial margin) into your margin account. 5) Initial margin = $ 2000/contract. Hence, in total: $ 4000 to be deposited. 6) Each trading day the margin account is adjusted to reflect the gains/ losses of each party in respect to the daily settlement price (so called ‘marking to market’). DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 24 Marking to market is taking place at the end of each trading day. Cont. 7) Suppose by the end of June 5 the futures price drops to $ 397/oz. 8) As a holder of the long position you make a loss in respect to original price: -3(100*2)= -$600. 9) The balance on your margin account is reduced from: $ 4000-> $3400. The reduction goes via the exchange to the account of the short position holder. 10) Now, suppose that by the end of June 5th and the futures price instead raises to $ 403/oz. 11) There is a gain: 3(200)= $600 12) The balance on the margin account is augmented from $ 4000-> $4600. This money comes from the margin account of the trader with a short position. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 25 Cont. Final points: 13) Any balance over and above the initial margin can be withdrawn. 14) To avoid the balance in the margin account from becoming negative, a so called maintenance margin is introduced (which is lower than the initial margin). 15) If the amount in the margin account falls below the maintenance margin, then you receive a so called ‘margin call. 16) This means that you are asked by the broker to top up until you reach the initial margin latest by next day. 17) These extra deposited funds are known as the variation margin. 18) If these funds are not provided, the broker closes the position immediately. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 26 Margin Cash Flows When Futures Price Decreases Benefits the short position holder, as the long position holder paid a higher price when entering the contract. Is making losses DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 27 Margin Cash Flows When Futures Price Increases Benefits the long position holder, as the short position holder secured a too cheap selling price when entering the contract. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 28 Another example of a futures trade (for your own consideration) (page 29-30 in Hull) An investor takes a long position on 2 December gold futures contracts on June 5 ◦ contract size is 100 oz. ◦ futures price is US$1650/ oz. ◦ initial margin requirement is US$6,000/contract (US$12,000 in total) ◦ maintenance margin is US$4,500/contract (US$ 9,000 in total) Lower than initial margin DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 29 A Possible Outcome (Table 2.1, page 30) Day Trade Price ($) 1 1,650.00 Settle Price ($) Daily Gain ($) Cumul. Gain ($) Margin Balance ($) 12,000 1 1,641.00 −1,800 − 1,800 10,200 2 1,638.30 −540 −2,340 9,660 ….. ….. ….. …… 6 1,636.20 −780 −2,760 9,240 7 1,629.90 −1,260 −4,020 7,980 8 1,630.80 180 −3,840 12,180 ….. ….. ….. …… 780 −4,620 15,180 ….. ….. 16 1,626.90 Margin Call ($) DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 4,020 30 5. Forward Contracts • Forward contracts are similar to futures, except that they trade in the over-the-counter markets (OTC). • Forward contracts are popular on currencies (to hedge currency risk) , interest rates and fixed income securities. There is no daily settlement, but counterparty might require collateral DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 31 Over-the Counter Markets (OTC) •The over-the counter market is an important alternative to exchanges •Trades are usually between financial institutions, corporate treasurers, and fund managers •Transactions are much larger than in the exchange-traded market DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 32 Size of OTC and Exchange-Traded Markets (Figure 1.2, Page 6) Source: Bank for International Settlements. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 33 Bilateral Clearing vs. Central Clearing House Individual traders Bilateral clearing (OTC markets) Central clearing (Exchange trading) DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 34 Example Forward contract: Foreign Exchange Quotes for USD/GBP exchange rate on June 22, 2012 (See Table 1.1, page 7) Spot Bid (buy £) 1.5585 Offer (sell £) 1.5589 1-month forward 1.5582 1.5587 3-month forward 1.5579 1.5585 6-month forward 1.5573 1.5580 DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 35 Simple example of currency forward You are a treasurer of a US company and you have to pay 1M pounds in 6 months. How can you hedge against the currency fluctuations? (we use a forward with exchange rate of 1.5 USD/GBP in this example). DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 36 Simple example of currency forward 1) You are a treasurer of a US company and you have to pay 1M pounds in 6 months. How can you hedge against the currency fluctuations? 2) You enter a long forward (i.e., to buy pounds) for delivery in 6 months. 3) The bank is willing to sell (offer rate) 1.5 USD/GBP. The bank has a short forward position. 4) In 6 months you pay the $ 1.5 M and the bank ‘delivers’ the £ 1M. 5) If e.g., the actual spot rate in 6 months rises to 1.7 USD/GBP you make a profit (200 000 USD) 6) If the actual spot rate in 6 months drops to 1.3 USD/GBP you make a loss to the corporation (- 200 000 USD). DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 37 Characteristics of the Forward Contracts 1. Private contracts with parties (not exchange traded) 2. Non standardized (tailor-made agreement between two parties like a corporation and a bank) 3. Settled at the end of Contract 4. Delivery often takes place (as in previous example the bank actually ‘delivers’ the pounds) Counterparty risk is existent (due to points 1-3). This means that the counterparty might not fulfil the obligations at maturity of the contract. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 38 Futures vs. Forwards: summary of differences The key difference: Forward contracts are customised agreements between 2 parties and so traded over-the-counter (OTC). Future contracts are standardised contracts traded on an exchange. Since forwards contracts are determined by the parties involved, the parties may agree: – A contract on any underlying asset – Any date for the transaction – Any quantity they desire – Special provisions DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 39 Key differences (cont.) In contrast, to allow futures contracts to be traded on an exchange they must be standardised. o Only pre-specified delivery dates o Only certain assets o Specified terms of delivery A consequence of futures being exchange traded and the central clearing procedure: o Futures are much more liquid. o Since the future contract is bought/sold from the exchange it may be “closed” at any time a trader wants. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 40 Final Points About Futures •They are settled daily (‘marking to market’). •Closing out a futures position involves entering an offsetting trade (i.e., if you hold a long position, you short the same number of contracts for the same delivery date). •Most contracts are closed out before maturity. •If a futures contract is not closed out before maturity, it is usually settled by delivering the assets underlying the contract. DR GAURAV MEHTA , EC2137, SEMESTER 2 41