BACKGROUND TO A WAR:
STALEMATE OR ENDGAME?
Christopher Ryan Maboloc, PhD
BACKGROUND

The core interests of the US – Europe, Northeast Asia and the
Persian Gulf (Mearsheimer)
- In 2008 Ukraine expresses intent to join the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization
- Pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanakovych is ousted;
- Russia annexes Crimea in 2014

Putin sends warning to NATO not to expand near its borders
- Russia attacks Ukraine in February 2022
- Existential threat to Russia
- Russia's Hegemonic and Superpower status
- Reclaim Russia's place as a dominant power
GREAT POWER POLITICS

John Mearsheimer's Thesis
- Offensive Realism
- Tragedy of Great Powers
- American exceptionalism
- Defending Ukrainian sovereignty
- Proxy war between NATO/US vs Russia

Cold War has not ended
- US and Europe impose financial sanctions against Russia and Putin's
oligarchs
- Russia imports from China using Ruble
- Russia cuts supply to Nord Stream 2
- China backs Russia financially
- Putin stops dissent within Russia
STALEMATE?

NATO’s Moral argument
- NATO is defending its allies, Article 5 An attack on one is an attack
against all.
- No direct intervention in Ukraine against Russia, but allowed use of US
F16s and Abrams tanks

Nuclear war?
- President Joe Biden allows use of US made long range Atacms missiles
- Putin threatens nuclear war after US Atacms missiles were used by Kyiv
against military targets inside Russia
ENDGAME

Endgame? President Donald Trump Part 2
- Russian perspective
- Ukraine gives up some of its territory to Russia
- Ukraine promises not to join NATO

Ukrainian vantage point
- Protect Ukrainian sovereignty at all costs
- Join NATO

President Trump's view
- He claims that he will put an end to this war in one day
- Wants NATO to partially pay for the military protection from the US