Lecture name: Huy DB
Subject code
BAFI3194
Subject name
Equity Investment and Portfolio Management
Assignment 3 – Equity Portfolio
Assignment
Management Report
Phan Minh Anh - s3916572
Student name - ID
Pham Truong Dan Thanh – s3987531
Nguyen Pham Dang Khoa - s3836378
Due date
Pages
January 19th 2024
83 pages
Excluding cover page and table of contents
Table of Contents
INVESTMENT GOALS AND STRATEGIES ......................................................................................... 4
MACROECONOMICS .............................................................................................................................. 5
Post Covid-19 Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 5
GDP Growth ............................................................................................................................................. 5
GDP distribution ....................................................................................................................................... 7
FDI .......................................................................................................................................................... 10
Unemployment ........................................................................................................................................ 11
Inflation ................................................................................................................................................... 13
Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy ......................................................................................................... 14
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW AND ACTIVE PORTFOLIO 1 SELECTION ........................................... 15
Real estate ............................................................................................................................................... 15
Office and retail real estate: ................................................................................................................ 15
Residential real estate: ........................................................................................................................ 16
Vinhomes JSC - VHM (10%) ................................................................................................................. 16
Consumer non-cyclical and cyclical: ...................................................................................................... 17
Food and beverage: ............................................................................................................................. 17
Retail: .................................................................................................................................................. 19
Vietnam daily product JSC - VNM (6%) ................................................................................................ 20
Masan group corp - MSN (15%) ............................................................................................................ 22
Mobile world investment corp - MWG (11%) ........................................................................................ 24
Power sector ............................................................................................................................................ 26
Petrovietnam Power Corp – POW (7%) ................................................................................................. 28
Oil and Gas Sector .................................................................................................................................. 31
Vietnam National Petroleum Group – PLX (6%) ................................................................................... 34
Petrovietnam Gas Join Stock Corp – GAS (2%) .................................................................................... 37
Steel sector .............................................................................................................................................. 40
Hoa Phat Group JSC – HPG (5%) .......................................................................................................... 41
Banks (30%)............................................................................................................................................ 44
Asia Commercial Join Stock Bank – ACB (5%) .................................................................................... 45
Military Commercial Join Stock Bank – MBB (6%) .............................................................................. 47
Vietnam Technological and Commercial Join Stock Bank - TCB (12%) ............................................... 48
Aviation sector ........................................................................................................................................ 50
Vietject Aviation JSC - VJC (15%) ......................................................................................................... 51
ACTIVE PORTFOLIO 2 ......................................................................................................................... 53
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POW (7% to 5%) .................................................................................................................................... 53
GAS (2% to 1%) ..................................................................................................................................... 54
ACB (5% to 7%) ..................................................................................................................................... 55
MSN (15% to 17%) ................................................................................................................................ 55
VHM (10% to 12%) ................................................................................................................................ 55
VNM (6% to 3%) .................................................................................................................................... 56
CONTRIBUTION AND ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS .......................................................................... 57
Contribution ............................................................................................................................................ 57
Passive portfolio (15/12 - 29/12/2023) ............................................................................................... 57
Active Portfolio 1 (15/12 - 29/12/2023) ............................................................................................. 58
Active Portfolio 2 (29/12/2023 - 12/1/2024) ...................................................................................... 60
Attribution ............................................................................................................................................... 62
A1 vs Benchmark (15/12/2023 - 29/12/2023) .................................................................................... 62
A2 vs Benchmark (29/12/2023 - 12/01/2024) .................................................................................... 64
A2 vs A1 (29/12/2023 - 12/1/2024) ................................................................................................... 66
PORTFOLIOS’ RISKS AND RETURNS ............................................................................................... 67
Returns Analysis: .................................................................................................................................... 67
Total return and active return of A1 and passive................................................................................. 67
Total return and active return of A2 vs Passive and A2 vs A1 ............................................................ 68
Risks Analysis: ........................................................................................................................................ 69
Total risk and active risk of A1 and passive ........................................................................................ 69
Total risk and active risk of A2 vs Portfolio and A2 vs A1 ................................................................. 70
CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................................... 71
REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................... 73
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INVESTMENT GOALS AND STRATEGIES
In HOSE VN30 stock market, we are provided total value of VND 100 billion and is allocated in
two consecutive periods for two separated portfolios named (1) Active portfolio 1 (A1)
(15/12/2023 - 29/12/2023) and (2) Active portfolio 2 (A2) (29/12/2023 - 12/01/2024).
A full replication method is applied to evaluate this method's performance by constructing Passive
portfolio which is identical to the Benchmark. Besides, A1 is constructed by utilizing Fundamental
(News and Financial) Analysis and Technical Analysis that signal us potential stock for A1 weight
allocation.
We evaluate Vietnam trading market by, first, investigating a macroeconomic outlook through Post
Covid-19 condition; GDP; GDP distribution and GDP growth rate; Unemployment; Inflation;
Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy. The analysis stretches an economic picture, allowing us to
access opportunities, risks and challenges among industries before the decision to choose. Next,
we build a list of industries after assessing potential risk and return but also support the portfolio
diversification purposes. The final step of choosing firms came from the analysis of financial
performance from 2020 to the latest period of Q3/2023. Dupont analysis is also utilized to check
financial health through Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt-over-Equity (D/E), Price-to-Earning
(P/E), Return-on-Equity (ROE) and Earning-per-Share (EPS). Double moving averages and
trading volume in usage of 10-days prior to A1 commencement also helps to signal BUY/SELL.
In the condition of short-term trading and listed firms are in VN30, we determine ourselves as
growth investors that seek for strong and stable financial positions of firms to handle the hurdles
period. The market during year-end showed low breath at 1,100 points with no motivation to
initiate significant changes in buying and selling investors, acknowledging this, we find companies
that are historically strong growth with noticeable patterns compared to the downturn periods.
Lastly, economic lag caused by inflationary pressures, transportation lag and shrinking demand
push us to companies with clear vision on innovation, who pursue development goals to overcome
this hardship in early stage. Therefore, our portfolio would expose us to minimum risk and accept
low earnings since 2024 only reports shady growth of the economy.
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MACROECONOMICS
Post Covid-19 Outlook
Despite sluggish global economic outlook induced by rising interest rates, ongoing geopolitical
tensions and escalating cost-of-living crisis, Vietnam’s economy has remained resilient towards
the end of 2023. Throughout the year, Vietnam’s government has undertaken a comprehensive
approach to enhance its economic landscape through reforms in tax and regulatory frameworks,
investments in sustainable industries, and improved trade relations.
The first notable regulatory development is the approval of VAT cut extension and tax reforms for
multinational corporations in response to the OECD Global Minimum Tax initiative. This
demonstrates Vietnam’s effort in assisting domestic firms struggling with rising cost and to foster
a favorable business environment with no tax avoidance or transfer pricing malpractices among
multinational corporations operating within the country (Shira and Associates 2023).
The second major initiative is the approval of Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8), a masterplan
that takes into account the Just Energy Partnership Agreement. By incorporating the renewable
electricity generation measures into the plan, Vietnam has reaffirmed its commitment to
constructing a more sustainable energy infrastructure (Barnes 2023).
Moreover, the trade agreement signed between Vietnam and two world superpowers, the US and
China, highlighted the country’s economic influence. The visits from US President Joe Biden and
Chinese President Xi Jinping in September and December respectively have opened opportunities
for growth across various regional impacting sectors such as AI, cloud computing, semiconductors,
new energy, infrastructure, trade and security (Shira and Associates 2023; Reuters 2023a).
Looking toward Vietnam's post-COVID-19 economy outlook, the country has established itself as
a promising destination for investment and growth. Strategic political developments are expected
to significantly boost Vietnamese equities.
GDP Growth
After two years of the pandemic, Vietnam’s GDP growth reached 8% in 2022, positioning it as the
fastest-growing economy in the Southeast Asia region (World Bank n.d.; Yen 2023). This
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resurgence is mainly attributed to Vietnamese government’s successful vaccination campaign with
up to 90% of adult population is fully vaccinated, enabling the business and individuals return to
economic activities (Saigoneer 2022). Public and businesses confidence was also improved thanks
to a swift and timely implementation of a two-year Socio-economic Recovery and Development
Program (2022-2023) that was worth USD15 billion (about 4.5 percent of GDP) (Vo 2023). The
achievement was remarkable with a 30% increase in the number of enterprises entering the market,
a 13.5% increase in realized FDI capital, and a 9.5% increase in import-export turnover (VNS
2023).
Despite careful preparation to combat with projected decade-high inflation, Vietnam’s economic
activities shows slump during the first 9 months of 2023. The GDP growth during the first quarter
of 2023 stood at only 3.28%, followed by 4.05% and 5.33% growth in the second and third quarter,
respectively, compared to the same period last year (GSO 2023a). The drop in growth was largely
attributed to weak exports. Economic slowdown in the US and EU, two Vietnam’s key export
markets which account for 42% of Vietnam's goods exports, has great influence on consumers’
spending behavior (Biswas 2023a). Weak external demand for goods has indirectly led to decline
in Vietnam’s export orders. The number of goods exported recorded an 8.2% y/y decline during
the first nine months of 2023 (Biswas 2023b).
GDP growth (%)
13.71
15
10
7.83
6.73
5.22
4.72
5.92
5.05
3.28
4.05
5.33
(%)
5
0
-5
-6.02
-10
Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23
Quarter
Figure 1. GDP Growth (%) (Statista 2023a; GSO 2023b).
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ADB, IMF, and World Bank have forecasted Vietnam’s GDP growth for 2023 to be 5.8%, 4.7%,
and 4.7%, respectively (ADB 2023; IMF 2023; World Bank 2023). Despite visible signs of
recovery in quarterly GDP growth rate, it is expected from international organizations that
Vietnam’s overall economic growth remain below its 2023 target of 6.5% (Reuters 2023b).
Nevertheless, with effort to promote both aggregate supply and demand, and projected recovery
of three growth drivers which are investment, export, and consumption under recent policy
developments, ADB, IMF and World Bank believe Vietnam’s economy may thrive further in 2024
with an anticipated growth rate of 6%, 5.8% and 5.5%, respectively (DB 2023; World Bank 2023;
Gourinchas 2023).
GDP distribution
Figure 2. GDP distribution in 9M2023. Reproduced from (ARC 2023).
Until late 2023, 6.32%, 3.43% and 2.41% are growth of service, industry and construction, and
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery (AFF) each (ARC 2023). Taking largest contribution to GDP
growth, Service sector became the key driver of Vietnam’s economy counted to the 2H2023.
Thanks to the quick recovery interventions from the government (GSO 2023), the tourism industry
welcomed 8.9 million visitors, surpassing the target of 8 million. The service sector is expected to
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growth exponentially in 2024 as the competitiveness towards other regions in Asia came from low
prices and the identified culture of popular destinations.
Figure 3. Construction materials prices in. Adapted from (CM Plus Vietnam 2022).
The second half of the contribution belongs to Industry and Construction as well as AFF. The
added value of industrial sector grew by 1.65% while manufacturing industry increased by 1.98%
compared the same period in 2022 (GSO 2023). However, the sector witnessed countless
challenges namely high materials prices and transportation costs as freight rates surged, plus
market demand grew slowly cause the industry to contribute poorly to the economy (Mai 2023)
(Figure 3). Besides, from mid-2022, sales and transactions related to real-estate were limited due
to the efforts to control risks, management mistakes and lending from banks (CM Plus Vietnam
2023). This led to difficulty in loan approval for the construction projects since the market was
facing plummeting buying activity. In addition, companies in the construction industry faced
extreme cash shortages (VNA 2023). Somes bore overstretched debt, many witnessed negative
post-tax profit, all of which were due to the lack of new projects and ongoing projects performed
poorly and slowly from the constructors as well as strict policy from the government.
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Figure 4. Manufactured exports and value added on attraction to FDI. Adapted from (Francois
et al. 2023).
On the other hand, manufacturing industries appeared to be the anchor for Vietnam’s GDP growth
by 20% increase in value added in Q3 2023 (Francois et al. 2023). Labor-intensive, low labor cost
and effective infrastructure that supported exporting products are key factors to this success.
Vietnam is reported to not only attract FDI from its productive manufacture but also the attractive
location for supply chain diversification of other countries (VCCI 2023). However, for the longterm growth, higher labor skills, long-term energy security and the expansion of domestic supply
chains are in serious need of improvement. Only that would make Vietnam’s manufacturing
industries win the competition with other alternative destinations in Asia (Francois et al. 2023).
Lastly, AFF specialized in the exports' ability of coffee, vegetables, pepper, seafood and livestock
at an average growth rate of 7.12% annually (MARD 2023). Discussing about sustainable
development of this sector, Vietnam’s AFF is aiming to the green-ecological-sustainable
agriculture, which helps reduce irrigation water, lower emissions and increase agricultural
productivity and quality. While holding smallest proportion on GDP growth, Vietnam’s AFF finds
China, Japan and the US are still the largest and most profitable importers of all agricultural
products. However, the export turnover of AFF products in Aug/2023 was anticipated to be 4.36
billion USD, lowering the total turnover to USD33.21B, indicating a 9.5% decline from the same
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period in 2022 (MARD 2022). Besides, regarding the forestry, around 33.3 thousand hectares of
forests nationwide were newly planted in Nov/2023, a 2.7% decline from the same period in 2022
(GOV 2023). In 2023, the export of forestry products reached USD 14.3 thousand, lower than that
of 2022 of 15.8% according to the Russia-Ukraine war (NT 2023). Following the downturn
situation, seafood only reached its commodity value of USD 4.13B, down by 27.4% compared to
the same period last year (Tien 2023).
Overall, the AFF sector contributed the lowest proportion of GDP growth in 2023 due to the factors
of increasing prices with high inflation and shortage in demand, transitions lag plus the inventories
problem from our main importers.
FDI
Figure 5. FDI attraction by sector 9M2023. Reproduced from (MPI 2023).
In the first 10 months of 2023, Vietnam FDI surged 54% compared to the same period in 2022,
accounting for over USD15.29 billion from 2,608 newly registered FDI projects of the total 38,378
existing projects (Dojan 2023; MPI 2023). In detail, total newly registered capital, adjusted capital,
capital contributions, and share purchases of foreign investors amounted to approximately USD
20.21B (7.7%-year on-year). Manufacturing and processing, at 60.2% total capital from FDI
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showing a potential Vietnam market with the rich of labor force, low prices and ranges of
opportunities for investors in machinery and motor parts supply to engage their production in.
Proving this point, 29% of newly registered capital still focused on cities and provinces with
advantages of infrastructure and human resources to maximize their return in manufacturing
industry (MPI 2023). Followed by that, real estate and production of electricity, gas, steam and air
conditioning supply became the second and third largest FDI attraction. The real-estate bearing
USD 67.3 million showed the advantages of political stability, appealing production cost, desirable
geographical location and high economic growth, etc. (VNA 2023). The real-estate market is
operated by large capital firms, who targets long-term coverage from housing to resort segments
under their strong brand in Vietnam, proving the strong potential of return in the market. Lastly,
the energy sector is promising for investors due to the commencement of renewable energy. From
2015 to 2022, Vietnam ranked 2nd of FDI attraction upon the developing economies (valued at
USD 106.8 billion), only behind Brazil (UNCTAD n.d.). However, the global minimum tax policy
begins in 2024 would build precautionary of large investments, which might reduce rate of newly
registered projects while the existing would shift to industries holding highest returns shown above
(TaichinhVietnam 2023).
Unemployment
Figure 6. Unemployment rate (% of total labor force) (World Bank n.d.; Statista 2023b).
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Figure 7. Unemployment rate (%) (CEIC n.d.; GSO 2023c).
Vietnam's current unemployment situation shows a mixed picture, reflecting both positive and
negative signs. Following the third quarter of 2023, while the number of employed individuals
increased by 776 thousand people compared to the same period last year, the unemployment rate
in the working age group saw no improvement and remained stagnant at 2.3% (GSO 2023c).
Notably, despite ongoing challenges, as compared to previous quarters since Q1/2022, the
unemployment rate consistently remained below 2.5% since the first quarter of 2022, highlighting
Vietnamese government’s effort to maintain a stable labor market.
According to GSO (2023d), difficulties in the labor market are mainly stem from prolonged
negative shocks caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflict between Russia and
Ukraine and reduced external demand from the country’s key export market. The decline in orders
has forced industrial enterprises to cut down capacity and reduce 1.9% number of workers in
Q2/2023, especially in textile and garment, wood processing and manufacturing of electronic
products, computers and optical products (GSO 2023c). Conversely, during that same period, the
service sector added 301.9 thousand new employments, indicating a transition from formal to
informal work in the labor market.
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Thus, future concerns for Vietnam’s labor market are the sustainability of the labor market
recovery and employment. However, expectations for a positive upturn in recruitment trends
towards the year-end influenced by major holidays such as Christmas, New Year and Lunar New
Year are anticipated to improve export orders from Walmart and Costco, potentially leading to
creation of additional part-time jobs for job seekers (VNS 2023b; Long 2023). Projection suggests
that by the end of 2023, the unemployment rate will reach 2.09% (World Bank n.d.; Statista
2023b).
Inflation
Figure 8. Consumer price index in Vietnam (2019 to Oct 2023). Adapted from (WorldBank n.d.;
GSO 2023).
Figure 9. Vietnam’s year-on-year growth of CPI. Reproduced from Thong (2023).
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In Q4/2023, CPI in Vietnam increased by 0.08 point compared to the same period in 2022 at
3.12%. In 1H2023, the CPI still had no sign of declining due to the main reason of energy price
hike and the chain effect which made supply chain costs surged during the war of Russia-Ukraine.
In particular, based on the research of Arce, ECB (2023), after one year from the war, the food
price increased by 14.1% in Jan/2023. On November 2022, OPEC+ reduced the oil supply,
countries including Vietnam slowed oil consumption and witness recession, in which the price still
could not return to pre-war level (Benamar 2023). Until 2H2023, the pressure from price hike
slowed down, facing monthly increase of 0.17% CPI. The domestic market had signals of recovery
when purchasing power gradually increased, salary increased by 20% along with the increase of
commodity price (Vietnam Law 2023). However, as an export-driven economy, Vietnam still had
to deal with challenges from falling demands of importers. In the first four months of 2023,
Vietnam’s exports of computers, electrical products and components, mobile phones declined by
12.9% y/y (VCCI 2023). Other commodities experienced slow inventory growth in China market,
also, even when the CPI in China was eased. The US-EU during their economic slowdown also
put barriers to Vietnam’s exports product, resulting in 13% y/y drop. After the hit of pandemic,
the war happened that triggered inflation to surge internationally. During inflationary period, State
Bank of Vietnam maintained flexible monetary policy that facilitated slow recovery of the
economy (Nhat 2023). The price control on gasoline, food, health care and education under prudent
monetary policy would maintain an inflation rate of under 4.5% in 2024.
Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy
For the period of December 15, 2023, Vietnam's approach to financial administration can be
characterized as strategic with regards to economic leadership, aiming for maintainable progress.
The administration has been enforcing steps to energize financial development, control expansion,
and support budgetary discipline. Specifically, examination from dependable wellsprings, similar
to the World Bank (2023) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2023), demonstrates that
Vietnam's financial approach has assumed a pivotal job in supporting the nation's financial
fortitude and development direction.
Simultaneously, Vietnam's monetary policy until December 15th of last year was created to uphold
price security and back the nation's overall financial goals. As the country's core bank, the State
Bank of Vietnam has utilized an assortment of tools like interest rates, reserve necessities, and
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available market tasks to administer money supply and credit development. Scholarly
examinations, including those distributed by the Asian Development Bank and the National
Institute of Finance, highlight how Vietnam's monetary strategy has effectively reacted to swelling
weights and encouraged an encouraging condition for speculation and financial movement. The
central bank employed various tactics within its power to achieve stability and support economic
objectives. Studies from reputable organizations show that adjustments to interest, reserves, and
open market operations effectively addressed inflation and fostered investment throughout recent
years.
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW AND ACTIVE PORTFOLIO 1 SELECTION
Real estate
Office and retail real estate:
Figure 10. HCMC’s Office rent price from 2019 to Q3/2023. Reproduced from Savills Vietnam
(2023).
The office and retail real estate market in Vietnam is currently worth at USD16.52 billion and is
predicted to grow by CARG of 15.42% in the next 5 years (Dao 2023). For the office segment, a
well performance in Q3/2023 in HCMC, when rent reached VND771,000/m2/month with
considerably high occupancy of 90% (Savills 2023); while that in Hanoi was 80%. This was a
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precise period for tenants to lease offices or for expansion purposes. The retail market also thrived
with the growth of middle-class demand (Savills 2023). Food, health and beauty, fashion and
entertainment were the highlighted sectors that obtained most of lease transactions in
supermarkets’ spaces.
Residential real estate:
From January to July 2023, Vietnam Bank for Social Policies disbursed VND4.4 trillion for 12,200
customers in need of buying or renting a house (Tieu and Bao 2023). 53,144 units of apartments
for low-income families, or 15,000 houses on the constructing plan to 2024 in Long A province
are some of the examples showing importance of real estate demand amidst the exponential growth
of Vietnam’s population (Nguyen 2023). In 1H2023, State Bank of Vietnam eased monetary policy
and lowered interest rates that expected a rebound in real estate (Savills 2023). Financial packages
of extending payment period and interest support from the government targeted workers to access
more affordable housing.
Vinhomes JSC - VHM (10%)
Vinhomes Join Stock Company (VHM) is a residential properties leader in the real estate market,
known for appealing projects of (1) Vinhomes Ocean Park 2, (2) Vinhomes Ocean Park 3, and (3)
Golden Avenue, which are all in the sale open (. With the strong project implementation power,
VHM proposed impressive revenue at VND32.7 trillion, holding 84% yoy in Q3/2023 (Pham
2023).
1. Fundamental Analysis:
Net Margin
Asset Turnover
D/E
P/E
ROE
EPS
Annual Industry
Median
25.9%
0.18
0.60
2020
2021
2022
Q1/2023 Q2/2023 Q3/2023
39.4% 45.8% 46.7% 40.7%
0.35
0.38
0.21
0.08
0.29
0.16
0.25
0.25
10.77
7.6
7.25
6.26
8.8%
38.6% 36.9% 21.4% 7.9%
6400
9020
6620
2740
Table 1. VHM’s fundamental analysis.
29.9%
0.08
0.26
5.32
6.0%
2220
32.8%
0.08
0.24
4.81
6.2%
2460
Overall, VHM showed positive net margin and asset turnover that dominated the industry median
over the past 4 years. In 2H2023, the company increased net debt to VND31.2 trillion (64% YoY)
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to serve their 2023 plan of continuous sales of low-rise segments while maintaining their Ocean
Park 2 & 3 projects as key growth drivers (Tran 2023). They hold a 19.4% YoY of D/E in
acceptable range and kept P/E at around 7x to strengthen their trading position, improvising
confidence from investors. After the real estate downturn in 2022, total capital inflow to VHM kept
rising on existing projects and urban projects in 2023, maintaining attractive ROE within the year.
2. Technical Analysis:
Figure 11. VHM’s technical analysis.
Regardless of share price fluctuations, it was clearly a BUY signal when MA10 crossed above
MA20 with volume intake of 11.3 million shares. During the year-end amid hardship, demands for
real estate fluctuated with waves of land/home sales, raising potential doubt on real-estate investors
(VNS 2023). Despite this nature, VHM with clear division on their products of both commercial
real estate as well as residential purposes still bring confidence through their operation and
lubricative earnings on low-rise projects.
Consumer non-cyclical and cyclical:
Food and beverage:
In the retail sales of goods, food services and accommodation’s revenue reached VND268 trillion
while both manufactures of beverages and their consumption increased compared to the same
period last year (GSO 2023). In April of 2023, the Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency made the
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announcement that the food and beverage industry in the country is anticipated to experience
considerable expansion, which will be driven by extremely high levels of domestic demand
(Suomen 2023). In response to the ever-increasing demand, the number of domestic enterprises
operating in the food industry has increased by more than 80 percent since the year 2019, and it is
currently above 5,000. Brands such as WinCommerce, Saigon Co. Op, AEON group, Lotte Mart,
and MM Mega Market are at the forefront of Vietnam's modern food and beverage retail business
(VNA 2023). However, the in-store purchase is lessened after the covid-19 pandemic, which
shifted Vietnamese customer’s buying behavior on food and beverage to online shopping (Kantar
2023). Along with that, online payment and delivery methods taking parts in this market, finding
Vietnam as potential area for the growth in early 2020 (Cao 2023). From 2018 to 2023, this online
retail made a remarkable development with penetration increased from 2% to 7% (Kantar 2023).
Figure 12. Shopping behaviour from 2018 to 2022 in Vietnam. Reproduced from Kantar (2023).
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Retail:
Figure 13. Vietnam e-commerce market leaders. Reproduced from Mordor Intelligence (2023.
The rise in the number of people in the middle class has resulted in an increase in the country's
disposable income, as well as an increase in the number of people who own smartphones and use
the internet. Consequently, after the pandemic, this new generation of customers has a greater
demand for things of higher quality and for shopping experiences that are of higher quality
(McKinsey 2023). More than fifty percent of people in Vietnam made at least one transaction
online in the year 2020, according to Masan group (2023). In the year 2020, almost seventy percent
of the Vietnamese population used the Internet. Considering the rapid growth of the e-commerce
sector in Vietnam, it is of the utmost importance that the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG)
business also diversify its distribution methods outside traditional retail channels in order to reach
a greater number of customers at lower prices. In 2024, the size of the Vietnam E-commerce
Market is estimated to be 14.70 billion US dollars, and it is anticipated that it will reach 23.77
billion US dollars by 2029, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of 10.09% throughout
the period of forecasting (2024-2029) (Mordor 2023). To catch up with the strong growth of this
market, Masan group focused on their WinCommerce with 3,586 stores nationwide for profit boost
(An 2023). Also, MWG sticks to the store's expansion strategy on their subsidiaries named Bach
Hoa Xanh, Dien May Xanh and Top Zone to play a key role in this market (Do 2023). Increase
profit by expanding the number of stores that capture utmost customer base became a harsh
competition among market leaders.
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Vietnam daily product JSC - VNM (6%)
Vinamilk (VNM), referred to as the Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company, has
subsequently expanded to become the predominant dairy enterprise in Vietnam after more than 40
years of operation, with 230,000 points of sale throughout Vietnam (Vinamilk 2022). The
company’s consolidated revenue and net profit for the second quarter of 2023 amounted to VND
15,213 billion and VND 2,229 billion, respectively, representing a growth of 1.7% and 6% YoY
(Vinamilk 2023).
Until Q3 of 2023, the key player with 43.7% total market share has established a target to attain a
total revenue of 63,380 billion VND, representing a growth of 5.5% (VIRAC 2023). Additionally,
the company aims to reach a profit after tax of 8,622 billion VND. Nevertheless, during the initial
quarter of 2023, the dairy market enterprises are expected to experience a decline in earnings in
comparison to the corresponding period, primarily due to cost-related pressures. Only Moc Chau
Milk declared a profit surge of over 18%, amounting to 101 billion VND. Similar to other dairy
manufacturers, Vinamilk also faced challenges of tightening budget for dairy products, which is
not considered necessary in Vietnam market. During the economic downturn, transportation costs
and animal feed prices also became difficulties for VNM (Minh 2022).
1. Fundamental analysis:
Annual Industry
2020
2021
2022
Q1/2023 Q2/2023 Q3/2023
Median
Net Margin
7.1%
18.8%
17.5%
14.3%
13.7%
14.7%
16.2%
Asset Turnover
1.13
1.28
1.20
1.18
0.28
0.30
0.30
D/E
0.37
0.24
0.29
0.17
0.22
0.19
0.23
P/E
19.94
17.17
20.13
20.69
19.43
20.49
ROE
14.7%
37.8%
32.7%
27.1%
6.1%
6.8%
7.8%
EPS
4770
4517
3632
3879
3934
4027
Table 2. VNM’s fundamental analysis.
VNM showed a strong financial performance over the industry median, regardless of clear impact
from covid and the recovery period since 2020. The company’s net margin was considerably higher
than peers while their earning quality remained stable from 2021 to Q4/2022. However, according
20 | P a g e
to Pham (2023), VNM’s sales faced hardship due to (1) modest milk demand in the Vietnam market
and (2) the poor purchasing power from customers due to layoff waves at year-end 2022. The weak
ROE during 2023 appeared correspondingly as both internal and external stakeholders had to deal
with the market downturn. However, as a large capital listed company, the company presented no
weaknesses in their debt management, illustrated by a captivating debt-over-equity ratio. The
decision to share 6% of our portfolio on Vinamilk is driven by their attractive dividend payment
(nearly 40% yield in 2022) and stable EPS, where our trust gains on stable financial performance
of the company historically.
2. Technical analysis:
Figure 14. VNM’s technical analysis.
In a 10-day period before active portfolio 1, we preferred MA10 and MA20 to capture the
company's stock price fluctuation in the short term. We noticed an upward trend of MA(10)
contacting a steady longer MA(20) and indicated BUY signal 2-days before the start of trade
(14/12/2023). Based on the historically stable EPS and the company managed to hold a strong
brand name in the non-cyclical products market, while buying volume being stable, we expect this
stock as a safe choice for active portfolio 1. Since A1 is traded shortly (15 - 29/12/2023), we believe
the small buy signal MA10 cut MA20 would maintain positive earning on 6% weight of the
portfolio.
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Masan group corp - MSN (15%)
Masan Group Corporation (MSN) is known for a giant consumer-focused business with core
business of WinCommerce (WCM) as retailer including mini market WinMart+; Masan Consumer
Holdings (MCH) specializing in FnB products and Masan MeatLife (MML) focusing on fresh
meat sale (Masan n.d.).
In the third quarter of 2023, MSN reported a net revenue of VND20,155 billion, which represents
a 3.2% increase compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin also increased, reaching
29.5%, which is a 90-basis point increase compared to the previous quarter and a 170-basis point
increase compared to the previous year. This growth was primarily driven by higher margins in
core sectors such as WCM and MCH. The net profit after tax for the current year was VND48
billion, showing a significant decrease of 91% compared to the previous year. (Nguyen 2023). For
long-term growth, the company is developing consumer-retail ecosystems among WCM, MCH
and MML based on tech-enabled methods (Masan 2023). Online payment and increasing the
number of small stores to reach utmost potential customer while maintaining convenience per store
is the key driver of MSN.
1. Fundamental analysis:
Annual Industry
2020
2021
2022
Q1/2023 Q2/2023 Q3/2023
Median
Net Margin
7.1%
1.8%
11.4%
6.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.4%
Asset Turnover
1.13
0.72
0.73
0.57
0.13
0.13
0.14
D/E
0.37
3.89
1.77
2.71
2.87
2.57
2.56
P/E
84.37
23.52
35.39
50.32
81.7
133.33
ROE
14.7%
4.2%
35.1%
12.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
EPS
878
6060
2513
1546
920
572
Table 3. MSN’s fundamental analysis.
The Vietnam retail giant - MSN witnessed massive recovery after the pandemic period at 80% YoY
net margin (2021). However, a slump in 2022 until 2H2023 caused a second crisis named Russia Ukraine war (Hoang 2023). During Q3/2023, Masan High-tech Materials (MHT), the strategies
that synchronised and digitised Masan’s ecosystem to its customer, faced large drops of ministop
and supermarket chain. Plus, higher costs due to global supply chain lag also hurted Masan to
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recover their customer sentiments (Leigh 2022). All these factors dragged the company’s revenue
to a record low. However, the bright side was substantial investment from outside, namely SK
Group, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority or Alibaba in the effort to build Masan as ‘everything’
company in Vietnam. This signalled a positive recovery of the company at Q4/2023 and its stock
volume upsurge, regardless of heavy reliance on debt. ROE of the company also outperformed the
market and investor confidence despite short-term fluctuations in the market (VNA 2023).
Accordingly, P/E after the finance-backed witnessed 133.33x (Q3/2023), indicating strong short
BUY signal.
2. Technical analysis:
Figure 15. MSN’s technical analysis.
Similar to MWG, the share price of Masan at early 5-day showed a low gap between MA10 and
MA20 and eventually signalled a BUY decision during Dec/12. Followed by the company’s
positive EPS while witnessing desirable ROE discussed in FA, plus supportive finance from third
parties, we strongly believe that our 15% total asset would yield positive returns.
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Mobile world investment corp - MWG (11%)
Figure 16. MWG’s revenue breakdown by chain, adapted from Kis Vietnam (2023).
Mobile World Investment Corporation (MWG) is known for market giant of multi-retail,
containing 3 major chains named Bach Hoa Xanh (BHX) as minimart sector, Dien May Xanh
(DMX) as consumer electronics retailer and The Gioi Di Dong (TGDD) specializing in selling
mobile phone (MWG n.d.). In the first half of 2023, MWG recorded a net revenue of VND56.6tn,
which represents a decrease of 20.1% compared to the previous year (Figure 16). The company's
net profit after tax (NPAT) for the same period was VND38.7bn, showing a significant decline of
98% year-on-year. These figures indicate that MWG achieved 42% of its annual projection for net
revenue and only 1% for NPAT (KIS 2023). Being well-known for the revenue driven strategy
from increasing numbers of stores, from Q2/2023, the company had to close stores during gloomy
economic conditions. A strategic move of Topzone launched amidst pandemic brought the
company impressive revenue from selling Apple products along with TGDD (Phan 2022).
1. Fundamental analysis:
Annual Industry
2020
2021
2022
Q1/2023 Q2/2023 Q3/2023
Median
Net Margin
3.4%
3.6%
4.0%
3.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Asset Turnover
2.00
2.47
2.26
2.25
0.49
0.52
D/E
0.33
1.08
1.21
0.69
0.72
0.96
P/E
13.74
15.33
11.77
18.72
40.52
110.51
ROE
12.6%
28.4%
27.3%
18.5%
0.1%
0.1%
EPS
2840
3400
2810
2059
1068
475
Table 4. MWG’s fundamental analysis.
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FY 2023 was not a profitable year for MWG where only 80% of targeted revenue was achieved
(VNS 2023). The key driver for business growth of MWG has always been increasing the number
of stores on sub-channels named BHX, DMX and TGDD to push sales and extensively reach
customers. From 2022 to 2023, the company narrowed its TGDD and replaced it with BHX,
expecting earnings growth from daily necessities over electronic devices. This move weakened the
company’s earnings in the fierce competition amidst logistic and supply chain challenges in 2023.
The net margin, accordingly, dropped with their asset turnover. However, the diversification of
MWG’s sectors still signals promising earnings in the short term. Historically, the company proved
to be strongly financed with low debt pressure and large capital due to the store's expansion
annually. The huge coverage in consumer-cyclical markets of MWG gained the confidence to
invest for short-term with navigated risk, followed by large buying volume and positive EPS.
2. Technical analysis:
Figure 17. MWG’s technical analysis.
Strong BUY signal showed at 11/12/2023 (MA10 moved above MA20) with 6.2 million trade
volume down from more than 10 million at the price peak, we hold 11% of total assets to the
company expecting a second wave of strong growth in the next two weeks from MWG. Another
fact on substantial sales volume appeared from Dec/11 had a repeat pattern. Besides, strong
financial position and innovation of digital payment seen from collaboration with Viettel together
enhanced our confidence for the investment of 11 billion on the corp for short earning.
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Power sector
With rich and diverse raw material resources, Vietnam possesses long-term advantages for
developing the power industry, contributing to economic and social efficiency and exerting strong
influence on the development of other economic sectors. The gradual recovery of commercial and
service activities to pre-epidemic levels during the latter half of 2023 has fueled an increased
demand for power, marked by notable growth in July (4.5%), August (7.6%), and September
(6.5%) (Zheng and Khoo 2023; Minh 2023). This was reflected in resurgence of monthly
electricity generation since the beginning of 2023, reaching its peak at 24,100 GWh in June 2023
(CEIC n.d.).
However, the power sector has encountered challenges due to a shortage of hydropower caused by
El Niño phenomenon. Severe droughts have led to reservoirs drying up, causing major dams in the
North to reach dead storage levels (VNA 2023). To mitigate the impact, up to 220 million kWh of
electricity was saved in May and June by 4 industry groups including public administration, public
lighting, outdoor decorative advertising lighting and key energy-using facilities. Despite the effort,
there is still a shortfall of 4.000 - 5.000 MW compared to the rising demand (An 2023).
Power shortages during dry season are still expected to affect power supply in the coming years
as the growth in demand tends to be 9.6% higher than economic growth (Phuc 2023). The decrease
in hydropower output by 20.3% y/y in 9M/2023 has opened opportunities for a stronger
mobilization of coal thermal power (Shinhan 2023).
26 | P a g e
Figure 18. Vietnam Monthly Electricity Generation (CEIC n.d.).
However, the recent approval of PDP8 has laid the foundation for the future power mix, placing a
strategic focus on the development of domestic natural gas and LNG power in the short term, and
renewable power in the long term. From now until 2030, to ensure stable electricity supply,
Vietnam's development plan will prioritize gas-fired projects, constituting 27% of the total power
capacity (VNP (Vietnam Plus 2023). In the period 2030-2050, the emphasize on gas-fired power
development will decrease, accounting for only 15% of the total capacity, paving way for the
growth of wind, solar, hydropower and biomass, representing 48% and 60% of the total capacity
in 2030 and 2050, respectively (Wengel 2023).
Figure 19. Vietnam National’s PDP8 (Wengel 2023).
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Additionally, Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) has increased the average retail electricity price
to 2,006.79 VND/kWh, marking a 4.5% increase compared to the current average retail electricity
price, excluding value-added tax (EVN 2023). This adjustment in retail electricity prices might not
yield higher profits to power plants but is expected to strengthen the cash flow of power plants,
benefiting power stocks (Giang 2023).
Petrovietnam Power Corp – POW (7%)
Company overview and business performance 2021-2022:
The Petrovietnam Power Corporation JSC (POW) is the second largest power generation and
trading company in Vietnam. Over the past 15 years, the company has supplied a total of 250
billion kWh of electricity generated from thermal power, hydropower, liquefied petroleum gas,
and renewable energies, contributing to ensuring national energy security and the country’s
economic development (PV Power 2023; VNS 2023c). POW's most prominent power plants are
the Nhon Trach 1 and Ca Mau 1&2 gas-fired power plants, with a combined capacity of 1,950
MW (PV Power 2023). Additionally, hydroelectric plants like Hua Na and Dakdrinh with a
combined capacity of 305 MW contribute around 11% to the company's total electricity output in
2022 (PV Power 2022). Thus, POW with its long-time operation in both gas-fired and hydropower
will best align with the PDP8 during 2021-2030, especially in LNG gas-fired power.
In the post-pandemic period of 2021-2022, POW faced and overcame significant challenges while
also achieving noteworthy successes. 2021 was a challenging year characterized by reduced
electricity demand and operational expenses pressure. Escalating world crude oils prices and a
reduction in the availability of gas sources at affordable prices in the Southeast and Southwest
regions forced POW to rely on more expensive gas sources, causing a loss of 680 - 760 VND/kWh
(PV Power 2022; Huong 2021). Technical problems at the Vung Ang 1 Thermal Power Plant led
to low assigned Qc, achieved only 87% of the yearly plan. Moving into 2022, while challenges
regarding raw input cost and suspension of many power plants for periodical maintenance, the
economic resurgence in 2022 came along with robust operational performance. The actual total
power output of 14.2 billion kWh surpassed the target mount by 2%. Total revenue also reached
VND 28,790 billion, exceeding 19% of the plan. Additionally, POW’s 7.85% of capital divestment
from EVN International JSC and complete divestment from Viet Lao Electricity JSC saved up to
28 | P a g e
VND 3,161 billion, an additional financial source to deploy Nhon Trach 3&4 projects,
underscoring its commitment to shift from coal power to LNG (VNS 2022).
1. Fundamental Analysis:
2020
2021
2022
Industry
Q1/2022 Q2/2022 Q1/2023 Q2/2023
median
14.2%
11.4%
7.9%
8.8%
2.2%
Net Margin
9.0%
8.4%
9.0%
Asset
0.54
0.46
0.51
0.24
0.13
0.13
Turnover
Assets/Equity 1.89
1.85
1.86
3.14
1.88
1.95
Debt/Equity
0.43
0.30
0.30
1.26
0.28
0.30
ROE
8.5%
6.3%
7.0%
10.6%
2.5%
1.4%
P/E
13x
23x
12x
EPS (VND) 937,000 760,000 809,000
Table 5. POW Fundamental Analysis.
0.13
0.14
1.87
0.25
1.7%
1.99
0.26
0.4%
Profitability:
POW’s net margin remained around 9% but showed a downward trend in 2023. In H1/2023, POW
reported a moderate revenue growth of 11% YoY, increasing the company’s revenue to 16,247
billion VND; however, profit after tax plummeted to 831 billion VND, down 40% y/y (PV Power
2023b). According to POW, the rise in revenue could not catch up with the rise in fuel input,
leading to a drop in net margin (PV Power 2023c). Gas-fired power plants face difficulties when
fuel prices increase while mobilizing operations with oil fuel leads to having to start and stop the
machine many times, also causing capital costs to increase. Furthermore, hydropower plants
seriously decreased in output due to low water flow to the reservoirs, leading to a decrease in
hydropower revenue, while the cost price did not decrease correspondingly because fixed costs
accounted for a large proportion of the cost price. However, 149 billion VND in insurance
compensation for incident of Unit 1 at Vung Ang 1 power plants has offset the drop in revenue.
As a result, the net profit margin dropped to just 2.2% from 7.9% in Q2/2023.
Efficiency + Liquidity:
POW’s consistent asset/equity ratio falling below the industry median suggests that the firm has
been financed in a conservative manner, with a large proportion of investor funding and a small
29 | P a g e
amount of debt. Thus, investors might seem this very favorable when the revenue is unstable due
to fluctuation in input cost, leading to highly variable cash flows.
The drop in revenue has negatively impacted asset turnover ratio in Q1/ and Q2/2023. However,
in previous years, the firm’s ratio was always higher than the industry median (0.24), indicating a
better utilization of its assets and generating revenue more efficiently than its peers. However,
rainy seasons starting in August in both the Northern and Southern regions provided abundant
water for hydroelectric plant reservoirs, improving PV Power’s total revenue (Anh 2023). Falling
temperatures also reduced load demand, reduced electricity prices and the ability to mobilize
power plants in the market. Thus, POW will improve its efficiency towards the end of 2023.
2. Technical Analysis:
Figure 19. POW’s technical analysis.
We utilized MA10 for 10-days prior to trade commencement and backed by MA20 to evaluate
price performance in the short-term. Observably, POW stock price strongly fluctuated and hit total
volume at –6.9 million, previously peaking at 6.7 million on 8 December. Following the nature of
risk of power industry mentioned above and difficulties from financial position, we signal the large
selling volume would build entrance for a second raise in price. Although price kept dropping,
MA10 still cut above MA20 on 13 December to yield BUY recommendation. However, we split
7% of total portfolio value as a safe option due to existing constraints in the market while
30 | P a g e
opportunities of this industry appear in long-term. This is also the largest weighted position of the
energy segment since we believe in lower risk taken from such a large capital firm.
Oil and Gas Sector
The oil and gas is one of Vietnam's key economic sectors, including 3 segments: upstream
(exploration and production), midstream (transportation and storage), and downstream
(conversion of crude oil and natural gas into thousands of finished products) (Mette 2021). In 2022,
Vietnam exported amount of crude oil equivalent to USD2.3 million while imported USD7.8
million worth of crude oil (Statista 2023c; Statista 2023d). Thus, business activities of this sector
are closely linked to changes in global crude oil prices with positive correlation to stock prices
(Trang 2022).
Figure 20. Vietnam Crude Oil Export (2012 – 2022) (Statista 2023c).
31 | P a g e
Figure 21. Vietnam Crude Oil Import (2014 – 2022) (Statista 2023d).
Though Brent oil price this year has declined to an average of USD83 per barrel (data collected
until October 2023) from the peak of USD123 per barrel in mid-2022 as fear of global economic
slowdown and Ukraine-Russia tensions, it is expected that Brent oil prices will increase further
due to potential the deficit in oil market caused by massive cut in oil production conducted by
OECD+ countries. Since April 2023, the OPEC+ alliance, including Russia, has voluntarily cut a
total of 3.66 million barrels of crude oil production per day (bdp), equivalent to 3.7% of global
demand (Reuters 2023c). With an attempt to bolster the dynamic of the oil and gas market, an
addition of 2.2 million bdp cut has been approved by OECD+ countries until the end of 2024
(OPEC 2023). Demand for oil is projected to keep growing by 2.3 million and 1.1 million barrels
per day in 2023 and 2024 (Lawler 2023). Thus, the profits of firms in these sectors are expected
to increase, correspondingly boosting stock prices.
32 | P a g e
Figure 22. Average monthly Brent crude oil price (Sönnichsen 2024).
Figure 23. Domestic petrolimex consumption forecast (VCBS 2023a)
Meanwhile, VCBS believes that the demand for petroleum consumption is increasing fueled by
the shift in trend from motorbikes to cars. As of March 2023, Vietnam’s total of at least 72 million
motorbikes and more than 5 million cars has consumed about 60% of petroleum products,
benefiting downstream segments (VCBS 2023a).
33 | P a g e
Meanwhile, the current approval of Block B - O Mon gas field project to commence operation in
2024 expects more vibrant domestic E&P of natural gas activities. This substantial endeavor aims
to ensure gas and electricity supply while aligning with clean energy goals of PDP8. With
estimated reserves of 102 billion cubic meters of gas and 12.65 million barrels of condensate over
23 years, the project carries an estimated total investment value of around 17 billion USD for the
upstream portion (Virtus Prosperity 2023).
Vietnam National Petroleum Group – PLX (6%)
Company overview and business performance 2021-2022:
Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex) is a Vietnam-based company working mainly in
oil and gas refining industry. Petrolimex is the Vietnamese largest downstream trading enterprise
of petroleum and petrochemical products, including gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil, and aviation fuel.
Through its extensive network of petroleum bulk and gasoline stations with 38 key traders and
nearly 400 distributors, the company is actively engaged in petroleum and liquefied gas
transportation by pipelines, sea-borne and inland water tankers, and tanker trucks and accounts for
45% of total output petroleum sold on the national scale (Petrolimex 2023a). Other activities
include insurance, investments in banking, construction and equipment and materials trading
businesses in the petroleum sector (Petrolimex n.d.).
In 2021, PLX’s petroleum distribution performance, one of the firm’s key segments, was
challenged by the Covid-19 pandemic, which significantly impacted domestic petroleum
consumption. The volume of petroleum consumed only reached 91.6% of the year target
(Petrolimex 2022). Despite downturn in domestic market and trading disruptions due to longdistancing measures, the group's overseas business activities in Singapore achieved notable results
of 2.84 million m3, ton, in sales volume, accounting for 23% of total sales volume of the Group.
Timely strategic responses to rising world oil prices, effective management of cashflow, and well
utilization of PLX’s large-scale infrastructure and extensive network of affiliated petroleum
stations helped the firm manage to exceed the segment’s profit targets by 29%. In 2022, the RussiaUkraine war disrupted the oil market, causing sharp fluctuations in oil prices and putting pressure
on PLX's downstream petroleum sector. Imbalance between supply and demand were exacerbated
by the inability of domestic mechanisms, policies, and regulations to swiftly adapt to the surge in
34 | P a g e
consumption, coupled with strong fluctuations in the exchange rate placed considerable pressure
on PLX supply navigation. Despite challenges, PLX recorded a total consolidated sales increase
of 12% compared to 2021 (Petrolimex 2023). Petrolimex Singapore's overseas petroleum business
again emerged as a bright spot, contributing significantly to the group's overall performance with
9% increase in sales and 43% increase in profit compared to 2021.
1. Fundamental Analysis:
2020
2021
2022
Industry
Q1/2022 Q2/2022 Q1/2023 Q2/2023
median
16.0%
0.7%
(0.2%)
1.0%
1.4%
Net Margin
1.0%
1.8%
0.6%
Asset
2.02
2.68
4.37
0.79
0.91
1.03
Turnover
Assets/Equity 2.89
2.58
3.04
2.19
3.26
3.49
Debt/Equity
0.76
0.61
0.59
0.31
0.69
0.79
ROE
4.5%
12.3%
5.8%
25.8%
1.0%
(0.1%)
P/E
67x
24x
28x
EPS (VND) 724,000 2,011,000 1,064,000
Table 6. PLX’s fundamental analysis.
0.94
0.89
2.74
0.57
2.5%
3.22
0.73
3.3%
Profitability:
In H1/2023, PLX achieved net revenue of 133,182 billion VND, down 12% over the same period
last year (Petrolimex 2023b). However, a sharper decrease in cost of sales combined with an
increase in financial income of nearly 30% helps boost pre-tax profit by 6 times, reaching 1,902
billion VND compared to the same period in 2022. Excluding income tax, Petrolimex reported a
net profit of more than 6 times over the same period, up to 1,558 billion VND. In addition, the
group's other business activities are basically stable and growing compared to the same period last
year. As a result, the net profit margin surged to just 1.4% from –0.2% in Q2/2023. According to
PLX, stable domestic petroleum supply without abnormal global geopolitical tension resulted in
the firm’s better profits. Nghi Son Refinery (NSR), after 10 days of maintenance, together with
Binh Son Refinery (BSR) ensure stable supply of 65% - 70% of domestic demand. Furthermore,
to prevent risks of supply disruption and shortage of petroleum that have occurred in 2022, the
Ministry of Industry and Trade directed petroleum trading enterprises to increase imports and
purchases from these two refineries by 10%-15% (VCBS 2023b). Thus, it is expected that PLX’s
35 | P a g e
petroleum distribution will improve further towards the end of 2023 and contribute to higher
profitability.
Efficiency + Liquidity:
PLX's consistently high asset/equity ratio compared to the industry median (2.19) suggests that the
firm has a large proportion of assets funded from debt. Investors might see this very unfavorable
when the revenue is unstable due to fluctuation in input cost, leading to highly variable cash flows.
However, the firm’s annual asset turnover ratio was always higher than the industry median (0.79),
indicating a better utilization of its assets and generating revenue more efficiently than its peers.
As of June 30, 2023, PLX recorded total assets at 79,712 billion VND, an increase of 5,236 billion
VND compared to the beginning of the year, of which the amount of cash and cash equivalents
was about 16,148 billion VND and nearly 11,000 billion VND of held-to-maturity investment
(Petrolimex 2023b). On April 7, PLX successfully divested from Petrolimex Petroleum
Commercial Joint Stock Bank (PG Bank) (Anh 2023). With an average price of 21,400
VND/share, Petrolimex has earned more than 2,568 billion VND. After completing paperwork
with the State Bank of Vietnam and the State Securities Commission of Vietnam, this financial
income is likely to be accounted for in the Q3/2023, strengthening further financial PLX's financial
position.
2. Technical Analysis:
Figure 24. PLX’s technical analysis.
36 | P a g e
Similar to POW, MA10 and MA20 are used for PLX, showing a promising period to BUY the
stock while the price hit a trough. A 4.3% CARG increase in sale volume of PLX is forecasted by
Nguyen (2023) due to increasing domestic demand for gas and fuel plus the large consumption
from jet fuel, in the prospect of 2030. However, the current sale volume of PLX is relatively low,
its P/E moved around 13x, lower than the regional peers were at 17x, which is less attractive.
Unlike POW, PLX’s price appeared to be more stable but it is harder to determine a short sale
regarding the supply factor. 2022 period indicated a supply disruption, severely on gas input.
However, numerous reports showed in 2023 continuous price adjustments on gasoline, low
demand and a fear of supply shortage, which cause PLX to be even less competitive in their trading
position. 2024 is expected to yield higher profit for PLX due to stable operation of the 2 refineries
and demand trend. Nevertheless, the earning quality of PLX could only recover without signs of
the current crisis, which directly drives investor sentiment, especially for short-term traders. This
future opportunity barely gains us confidence for 6% total wealth to diversify the portfolio in shortterm trading.
Petrovietnam Gas Join Stock Corp – GAS (2%)
Company overview and business performance 2021-2022:
Petrovietnam Gas Joint Stock Corp (GAS) is a Vietnam-based company operating in oil and gas
industry. The company engages in the extraction, refining, distribution, marketing and pipeline
transportation of natural gas and related products. GAS is currently one of Vietnamese biggest
supplier of dry gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and condensate (PV GAS 2023a). In addition,
PV GAS also provides products from dry gas such as compressed natural gas (CNG) and is about
to introduce liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the market in 2023. Beyond its core operations, GAS
and its subsidiaries also participate in crucial support activities for the oil and gas industry,
including the manufacturing of gas pipelines, constructing gas-operating infrastructure,
installation gas-related equipment, repair and maintenance services, gasoline station operations, as
well as warehousing and port operations (PV GAS 2023a).
In 2021, Covid-19 posed challenges to GAS business performance. National social distancing
measures, implemented to cope with the spread of the virus, disrupted travel and transportation,
37 | P a g e
leading to 35-40% decrease in the domestic consumption of LPG and CNG, as well as a 25%-30%
decrease in gas demand from industrial zone (PV GAS 2022). However, GAS demonstrated
resilience with unprecedented revenue of 80 trillion VND, increasing by 22% from the previous
year. The company also demonstrated its commitment to social initiatives by funding nearly 290
billion VND to the Covid-19 vaccine fund (PV GAS 2022). In 2022, as the domestic economy
returned to normal operation, GAS maintained its stellar performance, achieving total revenue
exceeding 102 trillion VND - a 28% increase compared to 2021. The dry gas segment played as
the primary contributor to the 77% increase in GAS’s gross profit compared to 2021 due to rebound
in demand from gas power plants and fertilizer manufacturers (Trang 2023a). Nevertheless, the
geopolitical tension of Russia-Ukraine, coupled with constant rise in interest rates to combat
escalating inflation, affected the energy market and led to fluctuations in prices and supply chain
disruptions.
1. Fundamental Analysis
2020
2021
Industry
Q1/2022 Q2/2022 Q1/2023 Q2/2023
median
15.0%
11.7%
13.1%
18.6%
16.1%
13.3%
2022
Net Margin 12.4%
11.2%
Asset
1.02
1.11
1.25
1.14
0.33
0.32
Turnover
Assets/Equity 1.30
1.54
1.38
1.66
1.56
1.49
Debt/Equity
0.06
0.16
0.10
0.15
0.16
0.14
ROE
16.2%
17.4%
26.7%
20.4%
6.5%
8.9%
P/E
21x
21x
13x
EPS (VND) 3,260.83 3,630.00 6,372.50
Table 7. GAS’s fundamental analysis.
0.25
0.28
1.33
0.10
5.4%
1.34
0.09
4.9%
Profitability:
In H1/2023, GAS demonstrated strong operational performance with output of wet gas, dry gas,
along with condensate and LPG exceeded 50% of the year’s target (PV GAS 2023b). GAS’s
revenue reached 45,257 billion VND, completing 59% of the revenue plan (Linh 2023a; PV GAS
2023c). Profit after tax reached 6,613 billion VND, also completed over 92% of the profit after tax
plan. However, as compared to financial results in 2021, both figures went down by around 20%.
This is mainly due to a 17% decrease in Brent oil price, which correspondingly reduced the LPG
price by 13% (Linh 2023b). As a result, the net profit margin dropped to 13.3% from 18.6% in
38 | P a g e
Q2/2023. However, the outlook for GAS in 2023 is promising with anticipate improvement in
mobilization rates when Thi Vai LNG Terminal starts operation in July 2023, potentially
compensating for decreased hydropower output resulting from less favorable El Nino Phenomena
(PV GAS 2023c).
Efficiency + Liquidity:
GAS’s consistently lower asset/equity ratio compared to the industry suggests that the firm is less
reliant on debt to fund its operation. Investors might see this very favorable when the revenue is
unstable due to fluctuation in input cost, leading to highly variable cash flows.
Moreover, the firm’s annual asset turnover ratio was always higher than the industry (1.14),
indicating a better utilization of its assets and generating revenue more efficiently than its peers.
As of June 30, 2023, GAS recorded total assets at 88,247 billion VND, an increase of 5,584 billion
VND compared to the beginning of the year, of which the amount of cash and cash equivalents
was about 12,499 billion VND and nearly 28,268 billion VND of held-to-maturity investment (PV
GAS 2023c). Liabilities are at 20,796 billion, of which total debt is at 6,037 billion VND.
2. Technical Analysis:
Figure 25. GAS’s technical analysis.
Although MA10 slightly cut MA20 on 12 December that signaled BUY, we noticed a second cut
right after the commencement of Active portfolio 1 (15/12/2023), which was a SELL signal. Based
39 | P a g e
on historical performance, we understand the financial position of GAS dominated POW and PLX
in ROE and percentage of net margin. The largest capitalized firm, however, witnessed the lowest
P/E at around 11x and lowest risk intake at beta of 0.81. GAS is observed as a low risk and low
return position in the energy segment. For the purposes of diversification and risk management,
we spend only 2% portfolio for the company that would ease any loss from the other two
companies.
Steel sector
Vietnam steel industry has experienced difficulties during H1/2023. Production and consumption
of finished steel industry in Vietnam decreased sharply by 21% and 17% respectively compared
to the same period in 2022 (VIRAC 2023). According to VCBS, construction steel, steel pipe and
galvanized steel consumption all went down 18%, 7%, and 4.3% y/y respectively (VCBS 2023c).
This mainly due to weak domestic real estate, especially the residential property market which
accounts for 60- 65% of the country’s total steel consumption, has not recovered due to a shortage
of new construction projects (Tran 2023; VCBS 2023c). Fierce import of Chinese steel products
which account more than 52% total amount of steel import has also put pressure on domestic steel
prices (Trung 2023). Since early April 2023, domestic steel prices have been adjusted down 19
times consecutively, reducing 100,000 - 310,000 VND/ton for CB240 rolled steel products (Hanh
2023).
Figure 26. Domestic steel products consumption (VCBS 2023c).
However, low selling price is an opportunity for export to thrive. Overall, in 10M/2023, Vietnam
exported about 9 million tons of steel equivalent to 7 billion USD, an increase of 31% in amount
40 | P a g e
over the same period last year (VSA 2023). The US market became a bright spot with a threefold
increase in steel imports from Vietnam in July 2023 due to increasing need for factories and
housing reconstruction under positive macroeconomics context (Nguyen 2023). Coming towards
2024, gloomy domestic steel consumption can be offset by many public investment projects. The
total planned public investment capital reaches 2.8 million billion VND in the period 2021 - 2025,
an increase of 43.5% compared to the plan for the period 2016 - 2020, with many bidding packages
for construction of new stations, runways, and airports; starting from the fourth quarter of 2022,
public investment has gradually disbursed (Topi 2023). As steel prices account for about 30% of
the cost structure of infrastructure construction materials, the increase in public investment in the
last months of the year will boost consumption demand and cash flow for the steel enterprises
(Nhan Dan 2023).
Figure 27. Import steel prices (2022 - 2023) (VSA 2023).
Hoa Phat Group JSC – HPG (5%)
Company overview and business performance 2021-2022:
Hoa Phat Group (HPG) is a Vietnamese leading industrial manufacturing groups and the largest
steelmaker in Southeast Asia. Since its establishment in 1992, HPG has diversified its operations
into five segments which are iron and steel, steel products, agriculture, real estate and home
appliances (Hoa Phat 2023a). With a capacity of 8.5 million tons of crude steel per year, steel
production remains as the Group’s core business and contributed 94% and 96% to the Group’s
revenue and net profit respectively in 2022 (Hoa Phat 2023a). HPG manufactures steel and
41 | P a g e
provides cast iron in various forms, such as sheets, bars, rolls and pipes, as well as steel-making
materials and steel drawing machinery (Reuters 2023). The Group is currently holding No.1
market share in Vietnam for construction steel and steel pipes and among national top 5 largest
galvanized steel sheet manufacturers (Hoa Phat 2023a).
In 2021, HPG’s primary segment, steel and iron, achieved 83% in revenue growth, contributing to
a 65% increase in total revenue compared to 2020 (Hoa Phat 2022). This was largely attributed to
the firm’s strategy to diversify its consumption markets in the context that the domestic demand
for steel products was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic while at the same time contributed to
foreign currency collection and trade balance in Vietnam. Revenue from exports accounted for
33% of the Group’s total revenue (Hoa Phat 2022). In 2022, revenue declined by 5% y/y (Hoa
Phat 2022). While steel remained the primary revenue contributor, the segment experienced a 4%
decrease in revenue due to reduced market demand and declining prices. External factors
contributed to the decreased global steel demand include Russia-Ukraine conflict, post-Covid and
challenges in the Vietnam real estate market (Hoa Phat 2022).
1. Fundamental Analysis:
2020
2021
2022
Industry
Q1/2022 Q2/2022 Q1/2023 Q2/2023
median
9.0%
18.6%
10.7%
1.4%
4.9%
Net Margin 15.0%
23.1%
6.0%
Asset
0.77
0.97
0.81
0.81
0.24
0.19
Turnover
Leverage
2.23
1.97
1.77
2.27
1.88
2.08
Debt/Equity
0.92
0.63
0.60
0.25
0.61
0.70
ROE
25.2%
46.1%
9.1%
17.4%
8.7%
4.1%
P/E
9x
5x
11x
EPS (VND) 2,311.11 5,936.74 1,452.23
Table 8. HPG’s fundamental analysis.
0.15
0.17
1.82
0.63
0.4%
1.80
0.62
1.5%
Profitability:
In H1/2023, HPG demonstrated weak operational performance. The firm achieved a revenue of
56,665 billion VND and a profit after tax of over 1,830 billion VND, completing only 23% of the
year's target. Revenue dropped sharply due to weak domestic and foreign market demand, as
evidenced by a 27% reduction in sales output of construction steel consumption, steel billet, and
42 | P a g e
hot rolled coil (HRC) compared to the same period in 2022 (Hoa Phat 2023b). Exports also faced
the pressure of low selling prices despite a mild increase in the number of steels exported (+7%
y/y), leading to a 30% drop in export revenue (MBS 2023). As a result, the net profit margin
dropped to 1.4% and 4.9% in Q1/ and Q2/2023, respectively. Despite these challenges, the outlook
for HPG is still promising with the expected recovery of the real estate market, especially when
the Government decided to disburse at least 95% of the total of more than 711 trillion VND for
public investment in 2023 (Duong 2023). Furthermore, in long-term prospect, Hoa Phat is actively
advancing the Hoa Phat Dung Quat 2 Iron and Steel Production Complex project to achieve a
production capacity of 5.6 million tons of HRC/year by 2025, anticipated to boost the firm profit
in the future (HPG News).
Efficiency + Liquidity:
HPG’s consistently lower asset/equity ratio compared to the industry suggests that the firm is less
reliant on debt to fund its operation. This indicates HPG has a well reserved of cash and cash
equivalent to maintain its operations during disruption. Investors might see this very favorable
when the revenue is unstable due to downturn in input cost, leading to lower amount of cash flows.
The firm’s annual asset turnover ratio always maintained around the industry median (1.14),
indicating a stable utilization of its assets and generating revenue compared to its peers. As of June
30, 2023, HPG recorded total assets at 176,243 billion VND, an increase of 5,907 billion VND
compared to the beginning of the year, of which the amount of cash and cash equivalents was
about 13,253 billion VND and nearly 22,848 billion VND of held-to-maturity investment (KPMG
2023). Liabilities are at 78,383 billion, of which total debt is at 60,627 billion VND, mainly to
accelerate the advancement process of Hoa Phat Dung Quat 2 Iron and Steel Production Complex
project (Thao 2020).
2. Technical Analysis:
43 | P a g e
Figure 28. HPG’s technical analysis.
HPG obtained a massive buy volume of 52 million shares on 8 December and around 34 million
shares were sold on the date we opened our active portfolio 1. A clear pattern of MA10 cross above
MA20 for strong BUY signal sent us compelling returns with HPG’s P/E at around 24x,
dominating its peers of only 5x. However, 2023 was not profitable for HPG as their sales poorly
performed in domestic markets. In the short term, the earnings quality of the company was low,
hence, 5% is allocated to HPG based on the compensation between their financial performance
and market risks from the news.
Banks (30%)
Bank is a spine of any economy all around the world including Vietnam. By providing essential
capital and financial services, the banking system influences money all around the economy
effectively, and fluently. Eventually, it promotes economic progress and expansion. Therefore, in
the scenario of economic recovery, while business from different industries will need an enormous
capital in order to expand and take advantages, banks will be the first that have positive business
operations and increase in price stocks. In examining Vietnam's banking sphere, the financial
landscape features a varied and competitive banking field. Significant players consist of state-held
commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, and foreign banks. The sector has undergone
important changes to boost transparency, governance, and risk administration. Academic works,
44 | P a g e
like reports from the Research Institute for Banking (2023), stress the value of a stable and wellregulated banking arrangement in assisting the wider economic aims of the nation.
Asia Commercial Join Stock Bank – ACB (5%)
Asia Commercial Bank (ACB) stocks are well-known for its safe assets characteristic because it is
a commercial bank which is established by 100% of government capital. In other words, ACB’s
industrial risks will be assured by the government.
1. Fundamental Analysis:
Type of
Ratio
Scale
Efficiency
Key Ratios
2020
2021
2022
Q1/2023
Q2/2023
Q3/2023
Net Margin
E/A
D/E
3.50%
7.97
1.00
3.90%
8.51
0.43
9.61
0.50
10.23
1.00
9.96
1.00
10.3
1.00
P/E
12.54
11.75
10.40
9.77
10.04
9.70
ROE
30.4%
29.9%
33.1%
8.5%
7.7%
7.8%
EPS
7,819
10,445
15,172
19,307
14,580
18,617
Table 9. Financial ratio of ACB (extracted from Eikon n.d.; Vietstock n.d.).
The financial analysis of the company reveals key ratios reflecting its performance and financial
health. The Net Margin increased from 3.50% to 3.90% in 2020 and 2021, indicating improved
profitability. The Debt-to-Equity ratio decreased from 1.00 in 2020 to 0.43 in 2021 but rose to 0.50
in 2022, suggesting changing leverage levels. The Price-to-Earnings ratio declined from 12.54 in
2020 to 9.70 in Q3/2023, possibly signaling an undervaluation. Return on Equity remained robust
until a notable drop to 8.5% in Q1/2023. Earnings per Share increased from 7,819 in 2020 to 15,172
in 2022 but showed volatility in subsequent quarters (14,580 in Q2/2023, 18,617 in Q3/2023).
45 | P a g e
2. Technical Analysis:
Figure 29. MA (10,20) of ACB (extracted from Eikon n.d).
Buy Signal shown in the middle of the day on 13th December where the short-term moving average
crossed the long term one from below. Over the past year, the stock exhibited a consistent upward
trend, with an average price increase of 15%. Support levels were established around 1 million
VND, while resistance levels hovered near 1.5 million VND. The moving average convergence
divergence (MACD) indicator showed bullish momentum, and the relative strength index (RSI)
consistently stayed above 50%, indicating a strong buying interest. In recent months, the stock
experienced a pullback, dropping 8% from its peak in Q2. The MACD histogram turned negative,
suggesting a potential shift in momentum. However, the RSI remained in the neutral zone,
indicating a balanced buying and selling pressure.
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Military Commercial Join Stock Bank – MBB (6%)
Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MB) has been in operation since 1994. The company is awarded
as the top VN’s 50 best listed companies in 2022 by Forbes Vietnam, which is the 9th award in a row (TDV
2023). Digitalization of MB had attracted more than 7 mil new customers in 2022 that by the end of Jun
2023 the bank has acquired approximately 23.5 mil individual customer and nearly 300 thousand corporate
customers (TDV 2023). MB has a total asset of 806.23 bil VND as of 30th Jun 2023 and the owners’ net
profit in the 6-month period at the end of Jun 2023 is 9.91 bil VND (KPMG 2023).
1. Fundamental Analysis:
Type of
Ratio
Scale
Efficiency
Key Ratios
2020
2021
2022
Q1/2023
Q2/2023
Q3/2023
Net Margin
E/A
D/E
25.1%
10.12
1.00
28.2%
10.29
1.00
31.0%
10.93
0.88
11.14
1.00
10.68
1.00
11.25
1.00
P/E
10.33
10.19
9.59
9.77
10.04
9.70
ROE
24.9%
30.8%
33.5%
8.3%
7.6%
8.6%
EPS
12,956
12,915
19,064
24,078
22,511
20,610
Table 10. Financial Ratios of MBB (extracted from Eikon n.d.; Vietstock n.d.).
MBB bank's fundamental analysis reveals positive trends in key ratios over the past three years.
Notably, the Net Margin has consistently improved from 25.1% in 2020 to 31.0% in 2022,
indicating increased profitability. Efficiency metrics demonstrate a decline in the Debt-to-Equity
ratio from 1.00 in 2020 to 0.88 in 2022, suggesting prudent financial management. The Price-toEarnings (P/E) ratio decreased gradually from 10.33 in 2020 to 9.70 in Q3/2023, possibly indicating
an attractive valuation. However, a concerning decline in Return on Equity (ROE) from 33.5% in
2022 to 8.6% in Q3/2023 raises questions about recent performance. Earnings per Share (EPS)
exhibited growth, reaching 20,610 in Q3/2023 from 12,956 in 2020, yet the recent decrease may
warrant closer scrutiny.
2. Technical Analysis:
47 | P a g e
Figure 30. MA (10,20) of MBB (extracted from Eikon n.d).
The short-term MA cut the long term from below on 12th Dec signaling a buy signal.
As of this writing, MBB has a 2023 D/E ratio of 1. This is much lower than the industry average
D/E ratio of 1.26. Since the bank has shown remarkable growth in net profits and loan operations
despite the present harsh economic circumstances, we, as investors, find this lower value
appealing. This is why we've chosen to put 15% of our money into MBB stock.
Vietnam Technological and Commercial Join Stock Bank - TCB (12%)
Techcombank (TCB) was established in 1993 with the charter capital of 20bil VND. The company is
awarded as the Digital Bank of the Year 2023 by the Asset Triple A, best private Retail Bank in Vietnam by
the Asian Banker and Asia’s Leader in Customer Engagement by IDC (TCB n.d). The company acquired
2.2 mil new customer in the first 9 months of 2023 where the earning before tax was 5.8 thousand bil VND
showing a 3.4% q-o-q growth, the total asset as of the 3rd quarter was 781.279 thousand bil VND and the
total operating income reached 10.418 bil VND (TCB 2023).
1. Fundamental Analysis:
Type of Ratio
Scale
Efficiency
Key Ratios
Net Margin
(VND Billion)
E/A
D/E
2020
2021
2022
Q1/2023 Q2/2023 Q3/2023
12,582
18,415
20,436
4,537
4,503
4,669
16.97
1.00
16.36
1.00
16.23
1.00
16.3
1.00
16.72
1.00
16.27
1.00
P/E
5.93
6.17
6.22
3.9%
3.7%
3.7%
ROE
23.3%
27.9%
25.0%
4.9%
4.7%
4.7%
EPS
31,816
47,453
64,483
68,979
41,654
46,267
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Table 11. Financial Ratios of TCB (extracted from Eikon n.d.; Vietstock n.d.).
This table shows pretty stable numbers for the last three years. The Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio
sticks at 1.00, meaning firm finance foundation. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio inched up from
5.93 in 2020 to 6.22 in 2022, then nosedived to 3.7% in Q3/2023. Return on Equity (ROE) was
solid around 25% but it took a tumble to 4.7% in Q3/2023. The earnings per share (EPS) went up
from 31,816 in 2020 to 64,483 in 2022 and then down to 46,267 in Q3/2023.
49 | P a g e
2. Technical Analysis:
Figure 31. MA (10,20) of TCB (extracted from Eikon n.d).
The short-term MA cut the long term from below on 13th Dec signaling a buy signal.Turning to the
technical analysis of the Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio, historical data reveals distinctive movements:
a 35% increase from 2018 to 2019, a subsequent 13% decrease from 2019 to 2020, a 31% rise from
2020 to 2021, and a subsequent 11% decrease from 2021 to 2022. Chart patterns and trend analyses
are employed to identify potential changes in investor sentiment towards the company's valuation.
Breakouts or breakdowns from key support or resistance levels are interpreted as signals reflecting
shifts in the market's perception of the company's book value.
Aviation sector
Turning our attention to Vietnam's airline industry, the aviation sector has undergone significant
expansion and change in recent times. With the rise of major carriers like Vietnam Airlines, VietJet
Air, and Bamboo Airways, competition within the field has intensified. The government helped
guide industry progression through initiatives encouraging links between locations, protecting
passenger safety, and streamlining operations. Scholarly works, such as research from the Civil
Aviation Authority of Vietnam and articles in aviation trade magazines, offer perspectives on
difficulties and possibilities for Vietnamese airlines moving forward.
50 | P a g e
Vietject Aviation JSC - VJC (15%)
Vietjet Air (VJC) was established in 2007 and awarded the best ultra low-cost airline 2023 by
AirlineRatings. Vietjet is a privately-owned carrier taking up the largest share of VN’s airline industry
which is 40% with 400 flights/day that accumulatively carried more than 166 mil passengers. The company
operates on 82 aircrafts which have an average age of 5.5 yeas and was listed on HOSE since Feb 2017
now being the top 30 biggest liquidity and capitalization company on such exchange. The company has a
net profit of US 5.8mil and total assets of 3.031m in the first half of 2023. (Vietjet 2023)
1. Fundamental Analysis:
Type of
Ratio
Scale
Efficiency
Key Ratios
2020
2021
2022
Q1/2023
Q2/2023
Q3/2023
Net Margin
Asset
Turnover
D/E
0.4%
0.6%
(5.6%)
1.3%
(0.2%)
0.4%
1.0
0.6
1.6
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.76
0.92
1.27
1.24
1.27
1.53
P/E
3.02
3.07
4.57
3.9%
3.7%
3.7%
ROE
(1.6%)
1.1%
(16.7%)
1.6%
0.0%
1.3%
EPS
11,589
11,281
9,019
9,191
9,154
9,236
Table 12. Financial Ratios of VJC (extracted from Eikon n.d).
The firm's basic financial review begets inconsistent outcomes over the given duration. In 2020,
the Net Margin began at 0.4%, sunk to (5.6%) in 2022, and rose back to 0.4% in Q3/2023. Asset
Turnover was unstable, initially it was 1.0 in 2020, went down to 0.5 in Q1/2023, and slightly
climbed up afterward. The Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio grew from 0.76 in 2020 to 1.53 in Q3/2023,
signaling increased financial leverage. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio rose from 3.02 in 2020 to
4.57 in 2022, then equilibrated at 3.7% in Q3/2023. Return on Equity (ROE) wavered, commencing
at (1.6%) in 2020, plummeting to (16.7%) in 2022, and uplifting to 1.3% in Q3/2023. Earnings per
Share (EPS) decreased from 11,589 in 2020 to 9,019 in 2022 but saw a small enhancement in
Q3/2023. The overall review implies financial instability, instigating an extra probe into factors
impacting the firm's performance.
2. Technical Analysis:
51 | P a g e
Figure 32. MA (5,10) of VJC (extracted from Eikon n.d).
Although the short-term MA cut the long term one on 7th Dec, we still believe VJC is the share
that’s going to make a profit and allocated 15% to the weight. The Return Rate shows how the
company's stock price changed. It saw many ups and downs. For example, it fell by about 5.4%
from 2018 to 2019. Then, it dropped by a massive 29.9% between 2019 to 2020. But after those
years, it shot up by a whopping 66.7% in 2020-2021, only for this gain to be erased by a big fall of
211.6% the next year, 2021-2022.
In 2018, the P/B ratio was 1.6, meaning the stock was selling higher than its book value. But in
2019, the ratio shriveled to 0.3, revealing a sharp dip in market value against the book value. Then
in 2020, the P/B ratio ballooned to 5.4 suggesting the market viewed the company as more valuable.
However, the celebration was short-lived as the ratio fell steeply to 0.9 in 2021, hinting the stock
was undervalued. And in 2022, the P/B ratio further wilted to 0.7, suggesting the stock continued
to sell below its book value.
Sector
Stock
Weight
Airline
VJC.HM
15%
ACB.HM
5%
TCB.HM
12%
MBB.HM
6%
MWG.HM
11%
Banking
Consumer cyclical
52 | P a g e
VNM.HM
6%
MSN.HM
15%
GAS.HM
2%
PLX.HM
6%
POW.HM
7%
Manufacturing (Steel)
HPG.HM
5%
Real-estate
VHM.HM
10%
Consumer non-cyclical
Energy
Table 13. Active portfolio 1 (15/12/2023 – 29/12/2023).
ACTIVE PORTFOLIO 2
Based on our fundamental and technical analysis in active portfolio 1 and the result of our portfolio
return, we will keep stock selections for active portfolio 2. However, the weights of some
individual stocks, namely POW, GAS, ACB, MSN, VNM, VHM will be adjusted based on update
of macroeconomic changes that influence some specific industry and company operations by
itself.
POW (7% to 5%)
Our group decided to reduce GAS weight from 7% to 5% due to recent challenges the firm is
facing in its operation and changes in national gas prices in December.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, there is a 90% chance
that the El Nino phenomenon will last until June 2024, causing normal temperature to increase by
1 - 1,5°C and drought to be more intense than average for many years (Nhan 2023). Under the
concern of operational hurdles of hydropower plants, the Ministry of Industry and Trade plans to
significantly increase mobilization from coal-fired power plants by 25% and decrease mobilization
from gas-fired and hydro power plants by 14% and 1%, respectively. Thus, with advantage in gas
and hydro power production, sufficient thermal power supply in 2024 potentially affects POW’s
power output from these two sources.
53 | P a g e
Furthermore, S&P Global estimated Vietnam’s manufacturing industry reached 48.9 points of
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in December, indicates weak production
capacity as compared to the threshold of 50 points (Nguyen 2024). The fourth monthly decline in
capacity coupling with increasing input costs forces manufacturers to reduce production volume,
leading to projection of decrease in electricity usage. These factors collectively reflect a potentially
challenging market environment for the power industry, suggesting future underperformance
POW stock within the industry.
GAS (2% to 1%)
Our group decided to reduce GAS weight from 2% to 1% due to recent challenges the firm is
facing in its operation and changes in national gas prices in December.
GAS recently shows its concern of operational hurdles of Thi Vai LNG warehouse despite its
completion and readiness to supply LNG for electricity generation since August 2023 (PV GAS
2023d). As they stated, GAS is unable to supply LNG to powerplants in surrounding areas due to
problems associated with the mechanism, policies, and regulations surrounding import, storage,
reprocessing, distribution, and consumption of LNG. Additionally, the discrepancy between the
international LNG business's specific characteristics and Vietnam’s Bidding Law potentially
hinders the company's ability to purchase LNG at favorable prices and volumes. Furthermore,
issues related to unregulated warehouse fees under Price Law, lack of necessary consumption
mechanisms for LNG and LNG-generated electricity, and regulations on storage fees makes it
difficult for GAS to negotiate LNG purchase and sale contracts.
Domestic gas prices are also stagnant in December compared to November 2023. Despite a
deepening crude oil production cut announced by OPEC+ and its alliance, Brent, used in refining
fuels, hit its lowest closing price level of $74.30 per barrel in December, down more than 3.6%
(Ferré 2023). Additionally, higher forecasted gas reserves by 8% compared to previous period
suggests that the world gas market can hardly spike until March 2024, which further exacerbates
the potential challenges for GAS stock within the oil and gas industry (Nguyen 2023).
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ACB (5% to 7%)
Our group had arrived at the decision to change the weight of ACB with an increase increment of
2% from 5% to 7% as a result of Fitch Ratings upgrading the bank from bb-/positive to bb/stable
following the upgrade of liquidity, capital corporate profile scores to bb (ACB 2023). The
exclusion of bancassurance, low exposure to real estate developers and lower-than-industryaverage Nonperforming Loan ratio shows the conservative strategy of ACB, which corresponds
with our strategy and risk appetite.
MSN (15% to 17%)
Being in top 3 return contribution in A1, we decided to increase 2% for MSN position from the
initial amount of 15% due to existing encouraging results of the company. Although there is not
much news of changes within the consumer non-cyclical sector or changes in strategy from the
firm, we observed the positive EBITDA of the company after the launch of the consumer-retail
ecosystem. Plus, Bain Capital in year-end 2023 also financed the company to alleviate liquidity
pressure of MSN, given 2024 is the maturity of MSN’s bond (Nguyen 2023). Lastly, the CrownX
– Masan's retail arm initiated in 2023 for the provision in 2024 to 2025 would enter IPO after the
USD500 million convertible notes from the company were issued internationally, which would
become another investment source for investors (Asia Business Outlook 2023).
VHM (10% to 12%)
We decided to increase slightly the initial weight of VHM from 10% in A1 to 12% in A2 deal to
the positive signs in real-estate at the beginning of 2024.
Firstly, the State Bank of Vietnam in 2023 had adjusted ceiling deposit rates and lowered interest
rates 4 times while the commercial banks reduce this deposit rate by 3%-5% to stimulate the
transactions in real estate (VNA 2023). Plus, the Law on Real Estate Business and the Law on
Housing were entered in Nov/2023 with expected consolidation period in Q4/2024 onwards, it is
a positive signal of the market to rebound in the beginning of 2024. This also meets the requirement
regarding quality and legitimacy of real estate products from customers and investors (Nguyen
2023). Lastly, a 10-year pattern would repeat according to Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh – Deputy
General Manager of Batdongsan.com.vn, where the real estate again generates positive cashflow
from the cautious investment during downturn (Nguyen 2023). VHM with tempting projects on
55 | P a g e
sale still stand a strong financial position with continuous added projects in early 2024, which
would be promising to allocate higher weight in our portfolio.
VNM (6% to 3%)
Also from the consumer non-cyclical sector, we decided to lower VNM position from 6% to 3%
for portfolio 2 due to challenges in the operation process. Given a 2.8% decrease in Q3/2023 gross
revenue, the power price still showed no sign of reducing while market demand shrunk and dairy
products’ buying habit became harsh at year end (Kim 2024). According to My and Minh (2024),
the milk consumption per capita in Vietnam faced a decline even when numbers of babies kept
rising. The competitive market requires VNM to maintain high-end products while provide
affordable prices, amidst economic downturn, this becomes an extreme difficulty. Although in
year-end 2023, the company tried to cut costs, their financial performance could barely rebound,
lowering our confidence to invest in early 2024.
Sector
Stock
Weight
Airline
VJC.HM
15%
ACB.HM
7%
TCB.HM
12%
MBB.HM
6%
MWG.HM
11%
VNM.HM
3%
MSN.HM
17%
GAS.HM
1%
PLX.HM
6%
POW.HM
5%
Manufacturing (Steel)
HPG.HM
5%
Real-estate
VHM.HM
12%
Banking
Consumer cyclical
Consumer non-cyclical
Energy
Table 14. Active Portfolio 2 (29/12/2023 to 12/01/2024).
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CONTRIBUTION AND ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS
Contribution
Passive portfolio (15/12 - 29/12/2023)
Stock
Weight (%) Return (%) Contribution (%)
BCM.HM
0.001%
1.452%
0.000%
POW.HM
0.003%
0.446%
0.000%
SAB.HM
0.005%
0.318%
0.000%
BID.HM
0.005%
4.578%
0.000%
VRE.HM
0.011%
3.326%
0.000%
TPB.HM
0.012%
2.655%
0.000%
VIB.HM
0.014%
4.255%
0.001%
SSB.HM
0.017%
5.752%
0.001%
VJC.HM
0.017%
0.000%
0.000%
SHB.HM
0.017%
4.854%
0.001%
SSI.HM
0.018%
3.145%
0.001%
MSN.HM
0.022%
6.349%
0.001%
VIC.HM
0.023%
2.059%
0.000%
MBB.HM
0.025%
3.324%
0.001%
MWG.HM 0.026%
5.031%
0.001%
VCB.HM
0.028%
-2.311%
-0.001%
STB.HM
0.028%
3.137%
0.001%
VHM.HM
0.029%
8.271%
0.002%
ACB.HM
0.044%
5.055%
0.002%
HPG.HM
0.047%
4.291%
0.002%
VPB.HM
0.049%
2.674%
0.001%
FPT.HM
0.057%
-0.104%
0.000%
BVH.HM
1.617%
0.000%
0.000%
GVR.HM
1.756%
6.533%
0.115%
PLX.HM
2.536%
0.583%
0.015%
GAS.HM
4.012%
-0.658%
-0.026%
CTG.HM
8.225%
1.498%
0.123%
HDB.HM 11.692%
6.842%
0.800%
VNM.HM 31.209%
0.001%
0.000%
TCB.HM 38.452%
3.922%
1.508%
Total
100%
87.278%
2.551%
Table 15. Passive portfolio return.
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In general, under full replication approach from Benchmark, the passive portfolio (15/12/2023)
yields 87.278% return with only 3 negative positions from VCB, FPT and GAS throughout the
VN30 basket. However, there was no massive return during year-end due to a tug-of-war situation
(VNS 2023). Given the cash flow remained low and no motivation in the market, pressure from
sellers was insignificant while no clear buying force appeared, keeping the VN-Index at
approximately 1,100 points. An overall of 2.551% return is yield in passive portfolio 1.
Stock
Weight
Contribution
TCB.HM 38.452%
1.508%
HDB.HM 11.692%
0.800%
CTG.HM
8.225%
0.123%
GVR.HM
1.756%
0.115%
PLX.HM
2.536%
0.015%
VJC.HM
0.017%
0.000%
BVH.HM
1.617%
0.000%
FPT.HM
0.057%
0.000%
VCB.HM
0.028%
-0.001%
GAS.HM
4.012%
-0.026%
Table 16. Top 5 and bottom 5 contributors in passive portfolio.
From top down, while weighing largest at 38.452%, TCB only contributed 1.508% return to the
passive portfolio due to factors such as undesirable interest rates and high lending rates after the
9M2023 shock of credit growth (Nguyen 2023). With lower weight, VCB struggled to small loss.
The pattern also applies to GAS and PLX in the energy sector, yielding the top 5 and bottom 5
positions but with an insignificant impact on total return. Overall, the low pace of trading activity
at year-end seems to be driven by news and herd behavior over financial analysis, that weight does
not determine returns for firms in the same industry.
Active Portfolio 1 (15/12 - 29/12/2023)
Return
Return
Date
(Portfolio)
(Benchmark)
29/12/2023
4.25%
2.56%
Table 17. A1’s returns.
Active Return
1.70%
58 | P a g e
Weights
Returns
Description Portfolio Difference Portfolio Difference
VJC
15%
15%
4.85%
0.00%
MSN
15%
15%
6.35%
0.00%
TCB
12%
-27%
3.92%
0.00%
MWG
11%
11%
5.03%
0.00%
VHM
10%
10%
8.27%
0.00%
POW
7%
7%
0.45%
0.00%
VNM
6%
-25%
0.00%
0.00%
MBB
6%
6%
3.32%
0.00%
PLX
6%
3%
0.58%
0.00%
HPG
5%
5%
4.29%
0.00%
ACB
5%
5%
5.05%
0.00%
GAS
2%
-2%
-0.66%
0.00%
Total
100.00%
4.25%
Table 18. A1’s contribution analysis.
Contribution
Portfolio Difference
0.73%
0.73%
0.95%
0.95%
0.46%
-1.05%
0.56%
0.56%
0.82%
0.82%
0.03%
0.03%
0.00%
0.00%
0.20%
0.20%
0.03%
0.02%
0.22%
0.21%
0.25%
0.25%
-0.01%
0.01%
4.25%
Figure 33. A1’s top and bottom 5 contributors.
The active portfolio 1 (A1) has a return of 4.25% while that of the benchmark return is 2.56% as
recorded on 29 December 2023. The portfolio managed to outperform its benchmark by 1.70%
over the period.
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Among the top 5 highest return stocks that we decided to invest in, MSN, VHM, VJC, MWG, and
ACB gave the highest return of 6.35%, 8.27%, 4.85%, 5.03%, and 5.05%, respectively. However,
only the first 4 stocks are also among the top 5 contributors to the superior returns of A1, with the
contribution of 0.95%, 0.82%, 0.73%, and 0.56% respectively.
Among the bottom 5 lowest return stocks that we decided to invest in, MBB, PLX, POW, VNM,
and GAS gave the lowest return of 3.32%, 0.58%, 0.45%, 0.00%, and –0.66%, respectively. These
stocks are also among the lowest 5 contributors to the aggregate returns of A1, with the
contribution of 0.20%, 0.03%, 0.03%, 0.00% and -0.01% respectively.
Through observation of active contribution to return difference column, the reason leads to A1
outperformance is because our team has allocated more weights into superior stocks as compared
to the benchmark which are MSN (+15%), VHM (+10%), VJC (+15%), and MWG (+11%) while
less weights were allocated to the lowest return stocks which are MBB (+6%), PLX (+3%), POW
(+7%), VNM (-25%), and GAS (-2%). In other words, by overweighting the sector that performed
well and picking good stocks within the sector while underweighting underperformed sectors and
bad stocks, the portfolio managed to outperform its benchmark by 1.70% over the examined
timeframe.
Active Portfolio 2 (29/12/2023 - 12/1/2024)
Return
Return
Date
(Portfolio)
(Benchmark)
12/01/2024
0.81%
5.05%
Table 19. A2’s returns.
Weights
Description
MSN
VJC
TCB
VHM
MWG
Active Return
Returns
-4.24%
Contribution
Portfolio Difference Portfolio Difference Portfolio Difference
17%
15%
12%
12%
11%
17%
15%
-27%
12%
11%
-3.28%
-2.50%
8.96%
-4.40%
-2.10%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.55%
-0.37%
1.06%
-0.52%
-0.23%
-0.54%
-0.37%
-2.43%
-0.52%
-0.23%
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ACB
PLX
MBB
HPG
POW
VNM
GAS
Total
7%
7%
7.95%
0.00%
6%
4%
1.30%
0.00%
6%
6%
14.48%
0.00%
5%
5%
-2.86%
0.00%
5%
5%
1.78%
0.00%
3%
-27%
-0.59%
0.00%
1%
-3%
-0.53%
0.00%
100%
0.81%
Table 20. A2’s contribution analysis.
0.55%
0.08%
0.86%
-0.14%
0.09%
-0.02%
-0.01%
0.81%
0.55%
0.04%
0.86%
-0.14%
0.09%
0.14%
0.01%
The stocks with highest portfolio return in a descending order are namely MBB (14.48%), TCB
(8.96%), ACB (7.95%), POW (1.78%), PLX (1.3%). The lowest portfolio return stock, on the
other hand, are MWG (-2.1%), VJC (-2.5%), HPG (-2.86%), MSN (-3.28%) and VHM (-4.4%).
Although Military Bank generated the largest profit of active portfolio 2, it came second to
Techcombank in contributing to the portfolio return. This was due to the weight of Techcombank
being held twice as large as that of Military Bank. Moreover, Vinhomes with the greatest loss is
not the largest contributor to the portfolio 2’s negative return as Masan had the greatest weight of
17%.
The reason behind the active portfolio 2’s underperformance is the overallocation of weights into
the top underperformed stocks MSN (17%), VJC (15%), VHM (12%), MWG (11%) that should
have otherwise been placed on stocks with significantly high return namely MBB (14.48%), TCB
(8.96%), ACB (7.95%).
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Attribution
A1 vs Benchmark (15/12/2023 - 29/12/2023)
Figure 34. A1 attribution analysis.
Airlines, Computer & Electronics Retailers, and Real Estate Development & Operations were the
top 3 overweight sectors with weight differences of 15%, 11%, and 10%, respectively. Conversely,
Banks is the most underweight sector with a weight difference of –36%. Meanwhile, VJC and
MSN (belonging to the Airline and Food Processing sector, respectively), were the most
overweight securities with both weight differences of 15%. VNM and TCB (belonging to the Food
Processing and Banks sector, respectively) were the most underweight securities with respective
weight differences of –25% and -27% as compared to the benchmark. A1's return was 4.25% but
that of Benchmark was only 2.55%, indicating that A1 outperformed the benchmark by 1.70%
during the examined period. The positive return difference suggests that A1's high return was due
to our good timing skills or the overperformance of specific securities within the portfolio as
compared to the broader market represented by the benchmark. We will analyze portfolio
performance by decomposing the difference into allocation effect and selection effect.
As observed from the table above, A1’s selection effect (1.25) has a higher value than the
allocation effect (0.45). This signifies that the individual stock selection decisions made within the
A1 contribute more to the portfolio’s performance in comparison to sector allocation decisions.
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Regarding allocation effect, the Airlines and Computer & Electronics Retailers sectors have the
highest positive allocation effect, with a value of 0.34 and 0.28, respectively. This indicates that
A1’s allocation to this sector contributed positively to its performance relative to the benchmark.
Conversely, the Banks sector has the lowest allocation effect, with a value of –0.59, indicating that
allocation to the Banks had a negative impact on A1’s performance. Notably, while the returns of
both Airlines (4.85%) and Computer & Electronics Retailers (5.03%) mirrored that of the sector
benchmark, they were the sectors with the highest return. Thus, the overweight position in these 2
sectors helped our team gain significant return. Meanwhile, Banks is the only underperformed
sector compared to the benchmark with a return difference of –0.15%. Thus, underweighting this
sector to focus on other promising sectors resulted in excellent A1 performance, suggesting our
good timing skill during the evaluation period.
Regarding selection effect, only MSN stock has the highest positive value of 0.97, indicating that
selection of MSN contributed positively to the portfolio’s performance relative to the benchmark.
Conversely, MBB has the lowest selection effect, with a value of –0.05, indicating that selection
MBB led to a significant detracting effect on the portfolio's overall performance. Notably, MSN
has the second highest return (6.35%) among the 12 stocks. Based on previous fundamental and
technical analysis, our team believe MSN possesses strong performance and overweight position
during the period. Thus, we decided to assign excessive weight to MSN, which was a good stock
selection that contributes to excellent performance of A1 based on selection effect result.
63 | P a g e
A2 vs Benchmark (29/12/2023 - 12/01/2024)
Figure 35. A2 attribution analysis.
After the modification from A1, our group put more weight on Banks and Real Estate Development
& Operations sectors while reducing weight of Intergrated Oil & Gas, Food Processing and
Independent Power Producers sectors in A2.
Airline was the most overweight sector with a weight difference of 15% while Banks is the most
underweight sector with a weight difference of –34%. Meanwhile, MSN (belonging to the Food
Processing sector), was the most overweight security with a weight difference of 17%. VNM and
TCB (belonging to the Food Processing and Banks sector, respectively) were the most underweight
securities with both weight differences of -27% as compared to the benchmark. After the
reallocation in A1, A2's return was 0.81% but that of Benchmark was 5.05%, indicating that A2
underperformed the benchmark by 4.24% during the examined period. The negative return
difference suggests that A2's low return was due to our bad timing skills or the underperformance
of specific securities within the portfolio as compared to the broader market represented by the
benchmark. We will analyze portfolio performance by decomposing the difference into allocation
effect and selection effect.
64 | P a g e
As observed from the table above, A2’s selection effect (-0.27) has a higher value than the
allocation effect (-3.97) despite both giving negative results. This signifies that the individual stock
selection decisions made within the A2 contribute more to the portfolio’s performance in
comparison to sector allocation decisions.
Regarding allocation effect, only 2 sectors have positive results while the rest of the 9 sectors have
negative results. The Food Processing sector has the highest positive allocation effect, with a value
of 0.56, indicating that A2’s allocation to this sector contributed positively to its performance
relative to the benchmark. Conversely, the Banks sector has the lowest allocation effect, with a
value of -1.22, indicating that A2's allocation to the Banks had a particularly negative impact on
its performance. Notably, Food Processing has the second-to-lowest return (-2.88%) among the 9
sectors. Thus, weight reduction in this sector by 10% compared to the benchmark helped our team
avoid substantial loss. However, while Banks sector has the highest return of 10%, underweighting
this sector by 34% as compared to the benchmark led to substantially negative allocation effect,
indicates that decision to not increase weight in this sector resulted in diminished portfolio's
performance.
Regarding selection effect, only MSN, MBB, TCB, ACB and VHM stocks have result different
from 0.00. This signifies that 3 among the 6 stocks changed in weight have no contribution to A2's
outperformance or underperformance relative to the benchmark. MBB is the only stock with a
positive selection effect, with a value of 0.33, indicating that selection of MBB contributed
positively to the portfolio’s performance relative to the benchmark. Conversely, MSN has the
lowest selection effect, with a value of –0.47, indicating that selection MSN led to a significant
detracting effect on the portfolio's overall performance. Notably, MBB has the highest return
(14.48%) among the 12 stocks. Despite its strong performance and overweight position during the
period, our team decided not to assign additional weight to MBB. Instead, the 2% weight increase
of MSN by 2%, resulting in overweight positions of 17% compared to the benchmark, made A2
incurred substantial loss due to MSN’s second-to-lowest return of –3.28%.
65 | P a g e
A2 vs A1 (29/12/2023 - 12/1/2024)
Figure 36. A2, A1 attribution analysis.
In active portfolio 2, TCB with no reallocation of weight, is the only outperforming stock with the
selection effect of 0.012 while MSN, MB, ACB and VNM are in the top 4 underperforming shares
with selection effect of –0.02, –0.02, –0.03 and –0.05 respectively. POW, VHM, VJC, GAS, MWG
each has no selection effect.
The Food Processing sector incurred a loss compared to the Active 1 (–0,33%); however, the
allocation effect is still positive with 0.03 as the sector is underweight of –1% in the second active
portfolio. The allocation effect of banking sector in the active portfolio 2 comparing to active 1 is
also positive (0.19) despite the lower portfolio return than the first active portfolio’s ( –0.17)
and increase in weight allocation (+2%).Vinhomes was the overweight stock with a highest
negative allocation effect of –0.08 as it generated no overperformance comparing to the first active
portfolio but took up the monetary resources that should have been placed elsewhere. GAS and
POW were underweight stocks and in the latter active portfolio they did not generate any
difference in portfolio return comparing to the previous portfolio that the allocation effect is 0.001
and 0.012 respectively. Mobile World and VietJet all arrive at the same allocation effect of 0.003
with no overperformance of the second active portfolio.
66 | P a g e
On the one hand, the total effect of the banking sector was positive 0.15 despite the negative
selection effect (–0.04), showing that the sector choice of ours generated higher return than the
individual stock selection did. Moreover, Integrated Oil & Gas, Airlines, Computer & Electronics
Retailer as well as Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing in second portfolio all reaped a positive
though insignificant total effect of 0.01, 0.003, 0.003 and 0.001 thanks to the positive allocation
effect with zero selection effect. On the other hand, Real Estate sector has the highest negative
total effect of –0.08 all thanks to the allocation effect, which indicates we should not have held
shares in such business as of the former active portfolio. The Food Processing sector remains a
great industry, but we did not invest in the superior stocks as in the previous portfolio leading to a
selection effect of –0.07, which amounts to the second largest total effect of –0.03. Independent
Power Producer did not contribute to total effect at all. The total effect of Active 2 in terms of
Active 1 is 0.04 showing that we are constructing a better portfolio.
PORTFOLIOS’ RISKS AND RETURNS
Returns Analysis:
Total return and active return of A1 and passive
Figure 37. A1 sectors weight (15/12 - 29/12).
67 | P a g e
15/12 - 29/12
A1
Benchmark
4.25%
2.55%
Total return
1.70%
0.00%
Active return
Realized
58.66%
0.00%
alpha
Table 21. A1 and Benchmark returns (15/12/2023 - 29/12/2023).
Over the evaluation period, the total return of A1 portfolio and passive portfolio are 4.25% and
2.55%, respectively, indicating good performance of both portfolios. Regardless, the overweight
positions of our chosen superior sector and stocks led to outperformance of the A1 portfolio
compared to the benchmark with an active return of 1.70%. Whereas significantly positive realized
alpha of 58.66% suggests that A1 has outperformed the passive portfolio by a substantial margin,
demonstrating A1 has generated a return of 58.66% per period more than expected return given
the portfolio’s systematic risk.
Total return and active return of A2 vs Passive and A2 vs A1
29/12/2023-12/01/2024
A2
A1
Passive
0.81%
0.77%
5.05%
Total Return
-4.24%
-4.28%
0.00%
Active Return
-83.45%
-82.18%
0.00%
Realized Alpha
Table 22. A2, A1, Benchmark returns (29/12/2023 – 12/01/2024).
Over the evaluation period, the total return of A2 portfolio and passive portfolio are 0.81% and
5.05%, respectively, indicating worse performance of A2 compared to the benchmark. The
underweight positions of the superior sector and stocks led to underperformance of the A2
portfolio compared to the benchmark with an active return of –4.24%. Whereas significantly
negative realized alpha of –83.45% suggests that A2 has underperformed the passive portfolio by
a substantial margin, demonstrating A2’s returns per period was 83.45% lower than expected
return given the portfolio’s systematic risk. The total return shows the outperformance of portfolio
A2 over portfolio A1 compared to the benchmark within the examined period of 29th Dec 23 -12th
Jan 24 with 0.81% and 0.77% respectively.
68 | P a g e
Risks Analysis:
Total risk and active risk of A1 and passive
15/12 - 29/12
A1
Benchmark
11.44
13.50
Standard Deviation
0.75
1.00
Realized Beta
Realized Tracking
6.12%
0.00%
Error
8.32
Information Ratio
8.98
3.85
Sharpe Ratio
1.22%
0.52%
Treynor Ratio
Table 23. A1 and Benchmark risk-adjusted performance measures (15/12/2023 - 29/12/2023).
Over the examined period, portfolio A1 generated an active return of 1.70% with a standard
deviation of 11.44 while the passive portfolio generated an active return of 0.00% with a standard
deviation of 13.50. Not only was A1’s active return higher, but its realized beta of 0.75 was
considerably lower than passive portfolio’s realized beta of 1. Thus, considering our appropriate
sector and stock selections, portfolio A1 appears to be more favorable with exceptional returns
over the period, lower deviation from expected return, and substantially lower systematic risk.
Notably, A1’s lower beta indicates that the portfolio has taken less benchmark-related risk (Kidd
n.d.). In other words, A1’s performance was less influenced by factors driving the index return and
more driven by other factors.
To identify whether A1 is taking on more risk, tracking error provides insight into how portfolio’s
returns deviated from the benchmark’s returns. A1’s realized tracking error of 6.12% compared to
Passive’s tracking error of 0.00% signifies that A1’s returns took on more risk than the
Passive. The information ratio further confirms this assessment, as A1’s significantly high
information ratio of 8.32 indicates that A1 consistent outperformance over the benchmark.
Additionally, A1’s significantly high Sharpe ratio of 8.9 compared to Passive’s Sharpe ratio of
3.85 suggests that investing in A1 yielded higher returns to compensate for taking on additional
risk. The Treynor ratio also gives the same result as the Sharpe ratio.
In conclusion, the ratio results confirm our team’s growth investment strategy for A1 portfolio
over the 2-week period, which focuses on companies with the potential for above-average earnings
69 | P a g e
growth. Correspondingly, we are inclined to take on more risk, higher return volatility, and
potentially lower profitability.
Total risk and active risk of A2 vs Portfolio and A2 vs A1
29/12/2023-12/01/2024
A2
A1
Passive
12.85
12.42
11.48
Standard deviation
0.61
0.58
1.00
Realized Beta
11.47%
0.00%
Realized Tracking error 11.70%
-10.26
-10.52
Information Ratio
1.01
0.99
11.54
Sharpe ratio
0.18%
0.17%
1.31%
Treynor ratio
Table 24. A2, A1 and Benchmark risk-adjusted performance measures (29/12/2023 – 12/01/2024).
Over the examined period, portfolio A2 generated an active return of –4.24% with a standard
deviation of 12.85 while the passive portfolio generated an active return of 0.00% with a standard
deviation of 11.48. While A1’s active return was lower, its realized beta of 0.61 was considerably
lower than passive portfolio’s realized beta of 1. Thus, passive portfolio appears to be more
favorable with exceptional returns over the period, lower deviation from expected return, and
substantially lower systematic risk. A2’s lower beta indicates that the portfolio was less influenced
by factors driving the index return but more driven by other factors.
A2’s realized tracking error of 11.70% compared to Passive’s tracking error of 0.00% signifies
that A2’s returns were highly deviated from the benchmark’s return and the portfolio had higher
risk-taking positions than the Passive. The information ratio further confirms this assessment, as
A2’s negative information ratio of –10.26 indicates that A2 consistent underperformance over the
benchmark. Additionally, A2’s significantly low Sharpe ratio of 1.01 compared to Passive’s
Sharpe ratio of 11.54 suggests that investing in Passive yielded higher returns to compensate for
taking on additional risk. The Treynor ratio also gives the same result as the Sharpe ratio. The ratio
results show our team’s growth investment strategy for A2 portfolio over the 2-week period failed
due to our insufficient selection and allocation strategies. Consequently, we took on more risk,
higher return volatility, and lower-than-expected profitability.
70 | P a g e
Additionally, considering the beta, the risk adjusted return of A2 (–83.45%) shows a more striking
underperformance compared to the benchmark than that of the A1 (–82.18%). The standard
deviation of 12.85 by A2 signals a portfolio which is more prone to volatility than the first Active
(12.42). Realized Beta of 0.61 for A2 and 0.58 for A1 also imply the A2’s return would swing
more aggressively than A1’s, both of which are lower than 1 signaling a less responsive portfolios
to the market.
CONCLUSION
Active Portfolio 1
Active Portfolio 2
Passive 1
Passive 2
(as of 29/12/2023)
(as of 12/01/2024)
4.25%
2.55%
0.81%
5.05%
Total return
1.70%
0.00%
-4.24%
0.00%
Active return
58.66%
0.00%
-83.45%
0.00%
Realized alpha
11.44
13.50
12.85
11.48
Standard deviation
0.75
1.00
0.61
1.00
Realized beta
6.12%
0.00%
11.70%
0.00%
Realized tracking error
8.32
-10.26
Information ratio
8.98
3.85
1.01
11.54
Sharpe ratio
1.22%
0.52%
0.18%
1.31%
Treynor ratio
Table 25. Summarized risk and return between A1, A2 and Passive portfolios.
At the end of trading session (15/12/2023 to 12/01/2024), both portfolios A1 and A2 yielded
positive return, of which A1 contributed to a larger return of 4.25%. Given the market stayed
around 1,100 points in 1 month period, we were unable to generate higher alpha while volatility is
eased. However, given within the second trading period (29/12/2023 to 12/01/2024), A2
outperformed A1 due to underweight positions was shifted to slightly higher proportion when
comparing realized alpha in second trading session of 0.81% and 0.77%, respectively. The market
fluctuation in buy and sell volume among different corporations lessened the accuracy of our
analysis on superior sectors and risky ones. The switching period from the old year to the new year
witnessed alternative transactions from investors, partially driven by the herd effect, leading to
slow growth for short trading. We believe that the ending of 2023 and beginning of 2024 brought
low motivation and movement on the market, without which our A2 could yield higher returns.
71 | P a g e
Regarding risk taken, A2 is considered less risky than A1 at lower beta but showing huge
challenges. However, as a growth investor, we favor A2 over A1 in early 2024 due to higher
despite higher volatility. With 11.7% tracking error, the portfolio is able to diverge further from
passive portfolio 2 but is not worthy at low earning (sharpe ratio at only 1.01 while treynor ratio
is significantly low at 0.18%). The negative correlation between risk and return (A2’s sharpe ratio
was extremely low), with the aim to expose lowest risk, we could hold the portfolio further and
observe the situation rather than altering our allocation that seek higher return during this period.
A second move following high tracking error would be in larger shift of weight among firms
instead of tiny change.
72 | P a g e
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