Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Process Safety and Environmental Protection journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/psep A simplified statistic-based procedure for gas dispersion prediction of fixed offshore platform Jihao Shi a,b , Jingde Li b , Yuan Zhu a,∗ , Hong Hao b , Guoming Chen a , Bin Xie c a Center for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China b Centre for Infrastructural Monitoring and Protection, School of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, Curtin University, WA 6102, Australia c GexCon China, Shanghai 200135, China a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: In explosion risk analysis, Frozen Cloud Approach (FCA) and Dimensionless Response Sur- Received 20 February 2017 face Method (DRSM) are both commonly used to achieve a balance between simulation Received in revised form 20 October workloads and accurate results. However, the drawbacks of these two approaches are obvi- 2017 ous. FCA is not reliable for risk study of fuel-dominated regions. Whereas DRSM usually Accepted 1 December 2017 couples the dimensionless parameters and generates a large numbers of correlations to Available online 8 December 2017 predict the flammable cloud size, which brings a heavy computation burden for engineers. Therefore, this paper aims to propose a simplified procedure which can quickly and accu- Keywords: rately provide a large number of non-simulation data based on limited CFD simulation data. Automatically Selected Model Full Factorial Design of Experiment (FFDOE) based RSM is adopted. Codification is applied Technology to couple all the dimensional parameters into a single correlation. Automatically Selected Computation cost reduction Model Technology (ASMT) is used to easily determine the suitable structure of correlation. Explosion risk analysis Compared to the conventional procedures, the simplified procedure is proven to be more Frozen Cloud Approach robust. For subsequent Explosion risk analyses (ERAs) in the fuel-dominated regions, the Dimensionless respond surface simplified procedure becomes a superior alternative. © 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Institution of Chemical Engineers. method Fuel-dominated region 1. Introduction different leakage and wind conditions. The representative gas clouds are subsequently used in gas explosion simulations to obtain DALs. Due to the fact that performing a large number of dispersion simu- Explosion risk analyses (ERAs) are widely used to derive the dimensioning accidental loads (DALs) for design of offshore topside facilities. lations by using CFD tools to derive DALs is inefficient and expensive, ERAs can predict explosion loads in detail, including overpressures, differential pressure, and drag loads (FABIG, TN-08). Loads with return- Frozen Cloud Approach (FCA) and Dimensionless Response Surface Method (DRSM) have been proposed by others to increase the effi- ing frequencies of 1 × 10−04 per year are then adopted as DALs and are incorporated with standards and legislations such as NORSOK Z013 ciency of the risk analysis and to obtain acceptable results based on a limited number of CFD simulations. DNV initially proposed the (NORSOK, 2010) and ISO19901-3 (2015) in safety study. commonly-used Frozen Cloud Approach (FCA) (GexCon, 2015). In this In a standard ERA, Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulation approach, linear relations amongst gas concentration, leak rate and is usually employed. Gas dispersion simulation, which plays an important role in ERAs, is performed before gas explosion simulation. The the wind speed for each leak scenario are firstly assumed and the gas cloud sizes from the non-numerically-simulated scenarios are then obtained. However, the FCA can exclusively provides satisfactory pre- major aim of conducting gas dispersion simulation is to identify credible gas cloud sizes, gas concentrations and cloud locations under diction results for leakages in ventilation dominated regions while poor estimations are expected for leakages in fuel dominated regions (GexCon, 2015). ∗ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: shi jihao@163.com (J. Shi), jingde.li@curtin.edu.au (J. Li), zhy3323@163.com (Y. Zhu), Hong.Hao@curtin.edu.au (H. Hao), offshore@126.com (G. Chen), xie.bin@gexcon.com (B. Xie). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2017.12.002 0957-5820/© 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Institution of Chemical Engineers. 49 Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 Afterwards, Cleaver et al. (1999) developed a set of simple correlations to predict the flammable gas cloud size for different gas release scenarios. Based on these correlations, Huser and Kvernvold (2000) proposed the concept of DRSM. The DRSM calculates the flammable gas cloud size by using several response surfaces with a large number of simulations. Compared to other old approaches, the DRSM indeed improves the accuracy of gas cloud estimation. Nevertheless, the utilization of these equations incurs heavier computation requirements for engineers (Ferreira and Vianna, 2014). In order to decrease the number of those correlations, Qiao and Zhang (2010) adopted a very conservative way combining the DRSM with the FCA, which however leads to large safety redundancy and large cost of offshore platform construction. Later, Ferreira and Vianna developed the DRSM to couple the most relevant dimensionless parameters into a single mathemati- S is the energy term, xi is the coordinate in i-direction, ui is the velocity component in i-direction. The equation consists of four distinct terms and the first in the left represents transient term while the second takes into account the convection. The terms in the right represent diffusion term and the last is the source term. It is critical to model the Reynolds stress tensor as follows to describe the turbulence of dispersion process for the leakage gas. Reynolds stress tensor: −ui uj = ueff cal model, which though is exclusively suitable for early design phase (Ferreira and Vianna, 2014). Precisely, DRSM has a significant drawback even though it improves the accuracy of gas cloud estimation. As RSM is a collection of mathematical and statistical techniques for analyzing the relationship between different parameters and response (Bezerra et al., 2008), the derived correlations estimate data for the ERAs without providing the physical meaning of gas dispersion. The coupled dimensionless parameters by DRSM result in a variation of two coupled parameters at a fixed ratio which will not influence the final gas cloud size calculation. In other words, the gas cloud size will be significantly under/over predicted if the coupled parameters change simultaneously. Alternatively, if the variations of individual dimensionless parameters are all considered in a correlation, several correlations need to be regenerated, which may cause extra amount of calculation burden (Ferreira and Vianna, 2014). Therefore, this study aims to propose a simplified procedure to quickly generate thousands of non-simulation data with acceptable interval for further ERAs based on a limited number of simulations. Compared to conventional procedures, the new simplified proposed procedure is more robust and user-friendly. It can also reduce the computation cost. Moreover, for the fuel-dominated region of offshore platform, the simplified procedure becomes a better alternative than FCA. In combination with stochastic simulation technique (e.g. Monte Carlo simulation), the simplified procedure can be eventually used for further ERAs. 2. Numerical dispersion model In this study, FLACS (Flame Acceleration Simulator) is used to model gas dispersion. FLACS is a 3D CFD software validated over the last 40 years against numerous experiments for a extensive range of different dispersion scenarios (Middha et al., 2009, 2010; Hansen et al., 2010; Bleyer et al., 2012). The software has been widely used in the oil and gas industry to simulate gas dispersion and vapor cloud explosion in both offshore and onshore facilities (Vianna and Cant, 2012; Qiao and Zhang, 2010; Huser and Kvernvold, 2000; Patankar, 1980; Hansen et al., 2013). 2.1. FLACS solves the compressible RANs equations on a 3D Cartesian grid using a finite volume method. The conservation equations for mass, momentum, enthalpy, and mass fraction of species, closed by the ideal gas law, are included. The conservation equations can be represented in general as: ∂ ueff ∂ ∂(ui ) ∂( ) = ( )+S + ∂t ∂xi ∂xi ∂xi (1) In this equation, represents the dependent variable. ueff is the effective turbulence viscosity, is the gas mixture density, − 2kıij /3 (2) where xj is the coordinate in j-direction, uj is the velocity component in j-direction, k is turbulent kinetic energy, ıij is stress tensor. Following Boussinesq eddy viscosity assumption, the eddy viscosity models are used to model Reynolds stress tensor and solve k–ε model as follows: Turbulent kinetic energy and one for dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy: ∂ ∂(ˇi kui ) ∂(ˇv k) = + ∂t ∂xi ∂xi ∂(ˇv ε) ∂(ˇi εui ) ∂ + = ∂t ∂xi ∂xi ∂k eff ˇi ck ∂xi ∂ε eff ˇi cε ∂xi + ˇv Pk − ˇv ε + ˇv Pε − C2ε ˇv (3) ε2 k (4) where t is time, Pk is the production of turbulent kinetic energy, Pε is the production of dissipation, C2 is constant in FLACS and equal to 1.92, ˇi is area porosity in the i-direction, ˇv is volume porosity, ck and cε is Prandtl–Schmidt number. 2.2. Wind boundary model Monin–Obukhov length is adopted by FLACS to describe the properties of the atmospheric boundary layer close to Earth’s surface and explain the buoyancy effect on the atmospheric boundary layer. The characteristic length scale L is defined based on Pasquill classes as follows: L= 1 z0 log Ls zs (5) where z0 is an atmospheric roughness length, zs and Ls are 1.0 m and 0 m respectively under Pasquill class D. With the Pasquill class, the wind velocity profile can also be calculated as follows: u(z) = Turbulent model ∂uj ∂ui + ∂xj ∂xi ∗ a u(z) = 0 If ln (z − zd ) + z0 z0 − u (z) If z0 > 0 (6) (7) z0 < 0 where z is the height above the ground, and zd is the canopy height, a is Von Karman constant, typically equal to 0.41. u0 is average wind velocity, z0 is an atmospheric roughness length, * is the friction velocity, which is defined as follows for the neutral and non Pasquill class: ∗ = ln u0 a (zref −zd )+z0 z0 (8) − u (zref ) 50 Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 Fig. 1 – 3-Parameter-2-level FFDOE (three independent parameters A B C and two levels 1, 2 of each parameter result in 8 combinations) (Croarkin et al., 2002). where zref is the height relative to the ground where velocity equals the wind speed, u equals to 0 for Pasquill class D adopted in this study. 3. Response Surface Method based on full factorial Design of Experiment (FFDOE) Response Surface Method (RSM) is a collection of mathematical and statistical techniques for problem analysis and the relationship building between different parameters and response. By selecting reasonable Design of Experiment (DOE), performing accurate simulations and applying regression analysis, a model to describe the relationship may be obtained and its quantitative form can be represented as below (Box and Draper, 1987): y = f (X1 , X2 , X3 , ..., Xn ) ± ε (9) where y is the response, f is the response function, ε is the experimental error, and Xi (i = 1, 2. . . k) are independent parameters. One of the important steps is to choose the reasonable DOE to generate the RSM model to describe the complicated relationship between the flammable cloud volume and its affecting parameters. In statistics, FFDOE is an experiment whose design consists of two or more parameters, each with different possible levels, and whose experimental units take on all possible combinations of these levels across all such parameters (Box et al., 2005). Fig. 1 shows the 3-parameter-2-level factorial design. As can be seen, there are 3 parameters named A, B and C and each parameter has two levels (level 1 and level 2). Thus, there are 8 kinds of combinations considering all the parameters and levels. 4. Procedure of FFDOE-based RSM on dispersion simulation Fig. 2 presents the procedure of how to apply the FFDOE-based RSM on dispersion result prediction. The detailed procedure is described below. Step 1: Geometry modelling and ventilation simulation In this step, 3D geometry is imported into FLACS. The final as-built facility is represented by adding anticipated congestion. Anticipated Congestion Method (ACM) (Davis et al., Fig. 2 – Procedure of FFDOE-based RSM on dispersion simulation. 2011), which is a standard procedure for generating small geometrical details based on process information from detailed drawings, is used. After geometry modelling, ventilation simulations for 8 different wind directions using the most frequent wind speed will be performed according to standard procedures commonly used in practice as defined in GexCon (GexCon, 2015) and NORSOK (NORSOK, 2010). Step 2: Codification of the levels of the parameters based on FFDOE The following equation are applied to transform a real value (zi ) into a coded value (xi ) by: xi = z0 = zi − z0 zmax − zmin z max − zmin 2 (10) (11) where zmax is the real value in the upper limit and zmin is the lower limit level of a parameter, and z0 is the real value in the central point. It is noted that the leak direction is coded as matrix form in order to obtain the single correlation, which would be illustrated in Section 5.3. 51 Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 Table 1 – Configuration of FFDOE of 2 levels of leak rate, wind speed, wind direction and 3 levels of leak direction with codification method. Std Leak rate Wind speed Wind direction Leak direction Std Leak rate Wind speed Wind direction Leak direction 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 −1 1 −1 1 −1 1 −1 1 −1 1 −1 1 −1 −1 1 1 −1 −1 1 1 −1 −1 1 1 −1 −1 −1 −1 1 1 1 1 −1 −1 −1 −1 [1 0] [1 0] [1 0] [1 0] [1 0] [1 0] [1 0] [1 0] [0 1] [0 1] [0 1] [0 1] 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 −1 1 −1 1 −1 1 −1 1 −1 1 −1 1 −1 −1 1 1 −1 −1 1 1 −1 −1 1 1 1 1 1 1 −1 −1 −1 −1 1 1 1 1 [0 1] [0 1] [0 1] [0 1] [–1 –1] [–1 –1] [–1 –1] [–1 –1] [–1 –1] [–1 –1] [–1 –1] [–1 –1] After codification, configuration of FFDOE of different levels of varied affecting parameters can be conducted. Table 1 takes 2 levels of leak rate, wind speed, wind direction and 3 levels of leak direction as an example to illustrate the configuration of FFDOE based on codification method. As shown in Table 1, FFDOE is orthogonal so that each parameter can be evaluated independently of all the other parameters. Moreover, the interactive effect of varied parameters can be completely analyzed, which make the correlation derived more accurate and robust (Box et al., 2005). Step 3: Mathematical modeling of dispersion simulation results The most suitable and robust polynomial order is determined in this step. ASMT, namely F-test, coefficient of multiple determination R2 , Adjusted-R2 and Predicted-R2 is adapted to select the polynomial order. F-value, R2 , Adjusted-R2 and Predicted-R2 can be calculated as below: 2 m m − SSreg /(p − 1) ŷj − y = SS/ res (p − 1) j F value = / j yj − ŷj 2 The single and interactive effect of different parameters on dispersion results are then derived from ANOVA results. Step 4: Further diagnosis analysis of mathematical model Diagnosis analysis is conducted to further determine the most suitable transformation of correlation, e.g. Ln transformation, Exponent transformation etc. Internally studentized residuals and Box-Cox plot are used to diagnosis the outliers from varied transformation and to determine the correct power law transformation. Step 5: Dispersion results output: 2D contour plots, 3D surfaces and vapor cloud volume prediction After deriving the suitable correlation, 3D surfaces and 2-D predicted lines with 95% confident intervals and prediction intervals are obtained. Those surfaces can also be used for ERAs in combination with stochastic probability analysis. However, it should be noted that this procedure are useful for statistical estimation rather than deterministic estimation. In other words for further ERAs, not only the predicted results but also the interval’s upper and lower limits should be used together with stochastic probability method. (12) R2 = 1 − m m j j m − 2 ŷj − y / j yj − ŷi 2 5. − 2 ŷj − y Adjusted-R2 = 1 − (13) 1 − R2 ∗ (m − 1) / (m − p − 1) To demonstrate the simplified procedure, a case study of an offshore platform is performed in this paper. Accordingly, this case study is also used to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the procedure. (14) 5.1. 2 Predcited-R = 1 − m + j m 2 m / j yj − ŷj 2 − 2 ŷj − y j ˆ yj − yi,−i (15) where m is total number of simulation results in the design; p is number of parameter of model; yj is the simulation results for the level j; ŷj is estimated value by the model for the level − Case study of an offshore platform + j; y is the average value of m simulation results; SSreg is the sum of the square due to regression and SSres is the sum of the square due to residuals. It is worth noting that Predictedˆ ) R2 is calculated by systematically removing each output (yi,−i from the data set, which can be used to estimate the regression equation, and determine how well the model predicts the removed output. Numerical modeling The geometry of this case study is a typical fixed and naturally ventilated offshore platform. CAD models are imported to FLACS. A 3D view of the central part of the offshore platform is shown in Fig. 3. The overall length, width and height of the offshore platform are 25 m (X), 60 m (Y), 40 m (Z), respectively. The platform consists of process module and accommodation module. The process module (central part), which is the focus in this study, has three deck levels, i.e. the lower deck level, the middle deck level and the upper deck level. Most of the gas equipment locate on the lower and middle deck level. The lower deck level of the process module is occupied by accommodation modules on +Y side and the middle deck level is occupied by the steel plates and accommodation module on −X and +Y side, respectively. The length, width and height of the process module are 25 m, 24 m, and 10 m, respectively. 52 Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 Fig. 3 – Geometric model of a typical fixed and naturally ventilated offshore platform. 5.2. Ventilation simulations In order to generate a ventilation distribution map by means of rate, direction, and probability, ventilation simulations are performed in the beginning. Based on the ventilation information, wind conditions for FFDOE of the dispersion simulations are determined subsequently. According to NORSOK Z-013 standard (NORSOK, 2010), the wind speed of 5 m/s is used for 8 cases with different wind directions in all ventilation simulations. The simulation dimensions are 90 × 110 × 65 m3 in x, y and z directions. The core simulation region is 96 m–123 m in x direction, 88 m–122 m in y direction and 26 m–36 m in z direction. The grid size used in the ventilation simulation is 1 m at core domain and the stretching factor 1.2 is used from the core domain to simulation boundary. Boundary condition of WIND is used for all inflow and parallel boundaries and NOZZLE is used for the outflow and sea surface boundaries. Pasquill class D is used, the atmospheric roughness length z0 and the height relative to the ground zref are set as 0.0002 and 10 m, respectively. CFLC = 20 and CFLV = 2 are adopted. The Air Changes per Hour (ACH) is calculated by the volume flux per unit time entering the core region, which is divided by the total volume including blocked areas inside the core region. Fig. 4 presents the ventilation conditions in the whole module. It is shown that the ventilation conditions are generally good when wind speed is 5 m/s in this module. However, the ventilation rates are lower for wind coming from the North (0◦ ) as compared to other wind directions. The main reason is that the presence of accommodation module blocks wind in North. Fig. 5 shows the ventilation conditions in both deck levels when wind speed is 5 m/s and wind direction is 270◦ , respectively. The upper figure presents the steady wind vector in XY plane at Z = 29 m in the middle deck level of the module. It shows that the maximum wind speed in this deck level is about 4 m/s and distribution area of wind speed above 2 m/s is small. The lower figure shows the steady wind vector in XY plane at Z = 26.5 m in the lower deck level. As can be seen, the maximum wind speed approaches 6.8 m/s whose distribution area Fig. 4 – Air changes per hour with 5 m/s wind speed of the process module. is comparatively large and most of the part in this level is occupied by wind speeds above 2 m/s. Therefore, the results show that the ventilation condition in the middle deck level is worse than that in the lower deck level, which is attributed to the high confinement in the middle deck level, i.e. the middle deck level is enclosed by steel plate in −X direction and accommodation module in +Y direction. Whereas the lower deck level is only confined by accommodation module in +Y direction. 5.3. Dispersion simulations 5.3.1. Codification of parameters For dispersion simulations, 5 main parameters, namely, leak position, leak rate, leak direction, wind speed, and wind direction, are considered. To identify the leak information, the first step is to choose the representative segment of the module. Amongst all parameters, the ones have potential to lead to the worst-case consequences are taken into account to find the representative segment. According to the standard (NORSOK, Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 53 Fig. 5 – Ventilation conditions inside the facility with 5 m/s wind speed and wind direction is 270◦ . The upper figure shows the wind vector at XY plane at Z = 1.8 m (the middle deck level). The lower figure shows the wind vector at XZ plane at Z = 2.8 m (the lower deck level). The wind vectors are shown as m/s. a) The middle deck level. b) The lower deck level. 2010), the leak point (115,110,29.5) as an example, is set at the center of the middle deck level. A typical composition of natural gas is adopted for gas dispersion simulation. Table 2 shows the composition of natural gas. Table 3 shows the leak property of critical segment. Leak rates used in this study cover the range of all critical hole sizes. 4 levels of leak rates are considered. The leak rate can be calculated by (Spouge, 1999): Q0 = Cd Av P0 M RT0 −1 2 + 1 −1 P >P ( 2 ) a +1 0 +1 (16) 54 Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 5.3.2. Table 2 – Natural gas composition for FLACS analysis. Component Concentration (%) Carbon dioxide Methane Ethane Propane Butane Pentane Hexane Heptane n-Octane n-Nonane n-Decane 0.84 57.18 5.53 3.85 2.60 1.62 1.16 1.68 1.81 1.33 22.38 Table 3 – Leak property of critical segment. Item Leak medium Pressure (bar) Temperature (K) Molecular weight (kg/kmol) Ratio of specific heat Natural gas 20 300 16.04 1.328 Table 4 – Codification of leak rate, wind speed and wind direction. A:Leakrate (kg/s) B:Wind speed (m/s) C:Wind direction Coded value Real value Coded value Real value Coded value Real value −1 5 −1 1.5 −1 0 −0.6 20 −0.333 5 −0.333 90 0.467 60 0.048 7 0.333 180 1 80 1 12 1 270 where Q0 is mass leak rate, Cd is the coefficient, Av is the leakage area, P0 is the internal pressure, Pa is ambient pressure, M is the molecular weight, T0 is the initial temperature, ␥ is the ratio of specific heat. There are 6 leak directions same as the 6 axial directions. Wind conditions are selected based on the results of ventilation simulations. 4 levels of wind conditions are considered. All the coded levels of 3 parameters are summarized in Table 4. Table 5 shows the codes of different leak directions. The matrix is used to present 6 leak directions aligned along the 6 axial directions. It is noted that −Z direction is coded as (−1,−1,−1,−1,−1,−1) in the Table 5 in order to enable the FFDOE to meet the orthogonal characteristics. After coding of parameters, different dispersion simulation scenarios are defined. The domain of dispersion simulation boundary is as same as that of ventilation simulations. Grid size 1 m is used for core domain and a stretching parameter 1.2 is adopted to smooth the grid from core domain to boundaries. Grid sensitivity analysis is conducted. For different leak rates, grid refinements around the leak areas are performed to keep moderate calculation times while getting acceptable results based on the grid refinement guidance (GexCon, 2015). The boundary conditions used for dispersion simulations are as same as those in ventilation simulations. Dispersion simulation results analysis Based on the FFDOE, a total number of 384 dispersion simulations (4 leak rates × 4 wind speeds × 4 wind directions × 6 leak directions) are performed. Fig. 6 shows the 3D plot of flammable cloud distribution under varied leak directions, leak rate is 20 kg/s, wind speed is 5 m/s and wind direction is 270◦ . The refined grid size near the leakage area (0.005 m2 ) is 0.1 m. The flammable range of leakage natural gas is between the equivalence ratio of 0.015 and 0.1. Fig. 6a) and b) shows the results when leak direction is −X at 5 s and 38 s after leakage. It is seen in Fig. 6a) that the leakage natural gas firstly disperse along the leak direction (−X) while ventilation condition is not dominated. Afterwards, as the gas enters into the more confined process module on both −X and −Y side, the leakage natural gas accumulates until a portion of natural gas arrives beyond the upper limit of flammable range. Eventually, most of flammable gas dominate the module process. Fig. 6c) shows the flammable cloud distribution when leak direction is +X. As can be seen, the leakage natural gas directly disperses out the module, thereby resulting in a small flammable cloud. Fig. 7 shows the equivalent stoichiometric cloud volumes (Q9) history profiles of varied leak rates under different wind speeds when leak direction is −X and wind direction is 270◦ . Fig. 7a)–d) shows the results of varied leak rates under wind speed 1.5 m/s, 5 m/s, 7 m/s and 12 m/s, respectively. As can be seen, only one peak of Q9 occurs for leak rate 5 kg/s under varied wind speeds while at two obvious peaks are seen for larger leak rates, i.e. 10 kg/s–80 kg/s. It should be noted that wind dilution strongly affects the latter peaks. To be precise, the increasing wind speed after the steady states of the first peaks eventually induce the wind dilution that significantly increase the second peaks. All maximum peaks of Q9 are then summarized in e) Q9 versus different leak rates under different wind speed). Fig. 7e) also indicate the data of different leak rates under different wind speeds when leak direction is −X and wind direction is 270◦ . Generally, as seen in Fig. 7e), the maximum Q9 peaks initially increase and then decrease with the increase of wind speed for small leak rates, i.e. 5 kg/s and 10 kg/s. However, for the medium and large leak rates, i.e. 20 kg/s to 80 kg/s, continuous increases of these peaks along with the increase of wind speed are seen. 5.3.3. Dispersion mathematical modeling Based on the gas dispersion simulation results, ASMT is used to quickly determine the suitable polynomial order of the mathematical model. Two criteria are applied to determine the correlation order. The first criterion is the sensitivity of added terms on the accuracy of the correlation. Table 6 shows results of F-test, which can indicate the corresponding sensitivity on results. As can be seen, with more additional terms added into the correlation, F-value becomes smaller. The small F-value indicate that the added terms become less sensitive. As shown in Table 6 the F-value of 4.49 corresponding to the Cubic and Quartic orders, is small enough to become the order determination threshold. Table 5 – Codification of leak direction. D:leak direction Coded value Real value Coded value Real value {1,0,0,0,0,0} +X {0,0,0,1,0,0} −Y {0,1,0,0,0,0} −X {0,0,0,0,1,0} +Z {0,0,1,0,0,0} +Y {−1,−1,−1,−1,−1,−1} −Z 55 Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 Fig. 6 – 3D plot of flammable cloud distribution when leak rate is 20 kg/s, wind speed is 5 m/s and leak directions are −X & +X, wind direction is 270◦ . a) 3D plot of flammable cloud distribution when leak rate is 20 kg/s, wind speed is 5 m/s and leak direction is –X, wind direction is 270 at time 4 s after leakage. b) 3D plot of flammable cloud distribution when leak rate is 20 kg/s, wind speed is 5 m/s and leak direction is –X, wind direction is 270 at time about 70 s after. c) 3D plot of flammable cloud distribution when leak rate is 20 kg/s, wind speed is 5 m/s and leak direction is +X, wind direction is 270 at the time about 70 s after leakage. Table 6 – Results of F-test. Source SSres p MSres Mean vs total Linear vs mean 2FI vs linear Quadratic vs 2FI Cubic vs quadratic Quartic vs cubic Residual Total 17,895.15 403.13 29.04 10.20 16.07 9.96 17.70 18,381.25 1 8 18 3 40 62 247 379 17,895.15 50.39 1.61 3.40 0.40 0.16 0.072 48.50 The other criterion is combination results of R2 , Adjusted R2 and Predicted R2 . Fig. 8 shows the coefficients of determination results. As shown in Fig. 8, R2 , Adjusted R2 and continuously increase by increasing the polynomial order. However, at a certain point of Cubic order, the Predict R2 starts to decrease. It is seen that the Predict R2 at Quartic order is smaller than that at Cubic order, which means the Quartic correlation is not robust. Therefore, in combination with the criterion 1, the Cubic order is chosen for the mathematical model. F-value P-value prob > F Remark 224.74 10.53 27.14 4.49 2.24 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 Suggested Aliased Parametric sensitivity study on simulation results of Q9 is also conducted based on F-test. The smaller P-values indicate the higher significance of the corresponding parameter. As shown in Table 7, the terms of leak rate A, wind speed B, leak direction D, leak rate and wind speed AB, leak rate and leak direction AD, wind speed and leak direction BD play vital roles in affecting Q9 since the corresponding P-values are less than 0.05. Based on the results derived by ASMT, Cubic model is chosen and Ln is used to transform the response values of Q9. In 56 Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 Fig. 7 – Equivalent stoichiometric cloud volumes versus time of varied leak rates under different wind speeds when leak direction is −X and wind direction is 270◦ . a) Simulation results of varied leak rates under 1.5 wind speed. b) Simulation results of varied leak rates under 5 wind speed. c) Simulation results of varied leak rates under 7 wind speed. d) Simulation results of varied leak rates under 12 wind speed. e) Q9 versus different leak rates under different wind speed. Table 7 – Parametric sensitivity on simulation results (Q9). Fig. 8 – Results of coefficient of determination. Source SSres p MSres F-value P-value prob > F A B C D AB AC AD BC BD CD Residual Cor total 33.92 6.21 0.033 360.15 3.40 0.60 21.04 0.016 2.45 1.37 53.93 486.09 1 1 1 5 1 1 5 1 5 5 352 378 33.92 6.21 0.033 72.03 3.40 0.60 4.21 0.016 0.49 0.27 0.15 108.50 221.41 40.55 0.21 470.18 22.22 3.89 27.47 0.11 3.19 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.6437 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0494 <0.0001 0.7443 0.0078 Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 57 Fig. 9 – Comparison of internally studentized residuals between transformed correlation and original correlation. a) Normal plot of residuals from the original. b) Normal plot of residuals from the transformed. c) Residuals versus the experimental run order of the original. d) Residuals versus the experimental run order from the transformed. order to simplify the correlation, stepwise multiple regression method (Draper and Smith, 2014) is used to delete the terms that have less effect on the prediction ability. Final equation of actual factors in terms of leak direction −X is determined as below: Ln(Q9)=+7.52986+0.023671 × A − 0.063698 × B − 6.48637E − 003 × C+3.44187E − 003 × A × B+4.54538E − 005 × A × C − 4.21516E − 004 × B × C − 9.41053E − 004 × A −005 × C 2 − 3.34552E − 005 × A −007 × A × C −006 ∗ A 5.3.4. 2 × B − 1.38770E 2+1.96656E − 006 × B × C 3 − 1.28618E − 007 × C 2+5.75984E 2+7.94896E 3 (17) Diagnosis analysis on correlation transformation Diagnosis analysis is to check if the determined correlation satisfies the normal assumption initially made. However, the variances of the raw residuals at different input samples may differ, which leads to the raw residuals belong to different normal populations or normal distributions even if the variances of the errors are equal at these different samples. Therefore, internally studentized residuals should be used to map all the different normal distributions into a single standard normal distribution. As correlation transformation is conducted in above section, the part is to check the feasibility of transformed correlation. Meanwhile the transformed one (Ln(cubic)) is compared with the original one (cubic). Fig. 9 shows comparison results of diagnosis analysis of internally studentized residuals between original and transformed correlation. As can be seen, both the residuals from the transformed and original one fall on a straight line, which means both residuals are normally distributed. However, Ln(cubic) indicates better residuals normal distribution as less outliers occur compared with the cubic. Fig. 9c) and d) presents residuals versus the experimental run order from both correlations. The random pattern of residuals indicates the suitability of both correlations. As can be seen, Ln(cubic) is relatively more robust as less experimental points are above the 95% confident intervals. In order to effectively determine the correct power law transformation, i.e. b of Ln(cubic + b), Box-Cox plot for power transform is used. As can be seen in Fig. 10, pink color line indicates the upper (0.17) and the lower (0) limits of the 95% confident intervals for the Box-Cox lambda value, the blue (overlapping with the pink color line) and green lines represent the current (0) and the best (0.09) lambda values, respectively. The data in Fig. 10 indicates that b = 0 is suitable for the transformed correlation as green line locates between the upper and lower limits of 95% confident intervals. Fig. 11 shows comparison results between Ln(cubic) and (cubic) in terms of predicted results versus simulation results. As can be seen, the majority of predicted results by Ln(cubic) are within 50% intervals, which further verify the suitability of transformation compared with (cubic), as lots of predicted results by (cubic) locate beyond the acceptable range. The fitness and accuracy of the Ln-Cubic mathematical model are verified in the above diagnosis analysis. Therefore, 58 Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 5.4.2. Fig. 10 – Box-Cox plot for power transform. the mathematical model is used to predict dispersion results in next step. Extra simulations are also performed to verify the generalization of the procedure in Section 5.5. 5.4. Response surfaces supporting Q9 with acceptable interval for ERAs The visual 3D surfaces and 2D lines, which consists of different Q9s with acceptable interval, are generated in the simplified procedure. 5.4.1. Surface of leak rate and wind speed on Q9 3D surface of leak rate and wind speed data vs. Q9 is shown in Fig. 12. The leak direction is aligned to −X and wind direction is 0◦ (coming from the North). As can be seen, the flammable cloud volume Q9 firstly increase and then decrease with increasing leak rates under a specific wind speed. In addition, the Q9 decreases with increasing wind speeds when leak rate is 5 kg/s while Q9 increases when leak rate is 80 m/s. The above observations are corresponding to the simulation data shown in Fig. 7, where the wind direction is 270◦ . Fig. 13 shows 2D plot presenting the predicted lines with 95% confident intervals and 95% prediction intervals under varied leak rates and wind speeds. The leak direction is aligned to −X and wind direction is 270◦ . From Fig. 13, one can see most of simulation results locate between the upper limits and lower limits of 95% confident intervals and all the simulation results are within 95% prediction intervals. Surface of leak direction on Q9 In Table 7, the most different parameter (i.e. leak direction) has been determined by using the AVOVA. Therefore, the Least Significant Difference (LSD) Bars are further used to determine the specific leak direction which is significantly different from others under same condition. The width of the bars is determined by the sub-sample size and the confidence level (i.e. 95% in this case). If the LSD bars for two directions are not overlapping, then these two directions are significantly different. The single effect of leak direction on Q9 is demonstrated in Fig. 14. The leak rate is 80 kg/s, wind speed is 12 m/s and wind direction is from South to North (270◦ ). On one hand, the lower and upper values of LSD bar for direction +X are 74 and 213 as shown in Fig. 14, these values are significantly lower than other Q9 values. The LSD bar does not overlap with others, which means that factor of +X direction is significantly different from others. However, little attention should be paid for scenarios with +X leak direction, since the flammable clouds from this direction are much smaller (i.e. 100 m3 of Q9) than other clouds from other directions, as seen in Fig. 13. The small gas cloud size of 100 m3 would not lead to meaningful gas explosion in the end. On the other hand, it is worth noting that more attention should paid for −Z direction since the flammable cloud in −Z direction is considerably larger than these from other directions. The LSD bar does not overlap with that of +Z direction. Overall, after the ANOVA and LSD bar calculation, −Z is determined to be the most different factor. Therefore, for safety engineers, the most attention should be paid in −Z leak direction. 5.5. Comparison between FFDOE-based RSM and Frozen Cloud Approach (FCA) Overall, 864 simulation results are derived by using FLACS for varied leak rates, i.e. 5 kg/s, 10 kg/s, 20 kg/s, 40 kg/s, 60 kg/s, 80 kg/s, varied wind speed, i.e. 1.5 m/s, 3 m/s, 5 m/s, 6 m/s, 7 m/s, 12 m/s, 4 wind directions and 6 leak directions. Except for the results developing the RSM, the rest are used as a benchmark to compare both FFDOE-based RSM and FCA. FCA is proposed by DNV and it assumes that the fuel volume fraction is approximately proportional to the ratio (e.g. leak rate/ventilation rate) for given dispersion or ventilation scenarios. With this assumption, if a Q91 at leak rate A1 and ventilation rate C1 is estimated by using FLACS, to determine an unknown Q92 at a different leak rate A2 or ventilation rate Fig. 11 – Comparison between the transformed and original correlation in terms of predicted results versus simulation results. a) Is the original one (cubic). b) Is the transformed one Ln (cubic). Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 59 Fig. 12 – 3D results of predicted flammable cloud size of leak rate and wind speed when the leak direction is aligned to −X and wind direction is 270◦ (red dots present the simulation results, contour are curves of constant response drawn in the leak rate and wind speed plane keeping all other parameters fixed. Each contour corresponds to a particular value of Q9). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) Fig. 13 – Predicted lines with corresponding lines of 95% confident intervals and 95% predicted intervals under varied leak rates and wind speeds when the leak direction is aligned to −X and wind direction is 270◦ . a) 1.5 m/s wind speed. b) 5 m/s wind speed. c) 7 m/s wind speed. d) 12 m/s wind speed. 60 Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 Fig. 14 – Single effect of leak direction when leak rate is 80 kg/s, wind speed is 12 m/s and wind direction is from South to North (270◦ ). C2 , the Q92 is calculated by multiplying the Q91 by a factor of A2 C1 /A1 C2 (GexCon, 2015). Extra non-simulation dispersion results are predicted by both of the simplified procedure and FCA, where the gas dispersion conditions are the same. Fig. 15 shows the comparison results between the simulation results and predicted results from these two methods when wind speed is 3 m/s, wind direction is 270◦ and leak direction is −X. The results from RSM are predicted by using a single correlation. For cases with wind speed of 3 m/s and varied leak rates of 5 kg/s, 20 kg/s, 60 kg/s and 80 kg/s, the FCA results are predicted by using given dispersion scenarios’ data when wind speed is 1.5 m/s (multiplied by a factor of 0.5 as the ventilation rate is 0.013 s−1 ) and wind speed is 5 m/s (multiplied by a factor of 1.6 as the ventilation rate is 0.027 s−1 ). As can be seen Fig. 15a), there is a significant difference between the simulation results and that of FCA when wind speed is 1.5 m/s for small leak rate. Fig. 15b) also shows the comparison results under leak rates 20 kg/s and 60 kg/s when wind speed is 3 m/s, wind direction is 270◦ and leak direction is −X. For FCA, the result under leak rate 20 kg/s is predicted by using given scenario data when leak rate is 10 kg/s (a factor of 2 is used for the multiplication). While the result under leak rate 60 kg/s is calculated by multiplying given scenario (i.e. leak rate is 40 kg/s) data by a factor of 1.5. From it, one can see the results predicted by the single correlation are closer to the simulation results compared to those of FCA. Fig. 16 shows comparison results among the simplified procedure, FCA and CFD of 864 simulation scenarios. As can be seen in Fig. 16a), the results predicted by the simplified procedure agree well with those of CFD. The majority of these results are within +50% confident intervals. Whereas more results derived by FCA in Fig. 16b) are smaller than those estimated by using CFD. Fig. 16c) shows the exceedance frequency curves for all simulation results. CFD simulation data is used as a benchmark. The leak frequency used for those curves is calculated by using DNV LEAK software based on the HSE database. These databases provide leak frequency depending on the size or type of equipment and piping elements. The wind frequency is derived based on the statistics of wind conditions. Fig. 16c) indicates that the curve derived from FFDOE-based RSM is closer to the CFD curve than that of FCA. In other words, the simplified procedure is more reliable than FCA in ERA when wind condition is not dominant. 5.6. Comparison between FFDOE-based RSM and DRSM The disadvantages of conventional DRSM are shown in the comparison of the predicted results between FFDOE based RSM and conventional DRSM. Fig. 15 – Comparison results between FFDOE-based RSM, FCA and simulation results when wind speed is 3 m/s, wind direction is 270◦ and leak direction is −X. a) Results for varied leak rates. b) Results when leak rates are 20 kg/s and 60 kg/s. c) Simulation results of 3 m/s by CFD. d) Predicted simulation result of 3 m/s by FCA when wind speed is 1.5 m/s. Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 61 Fig. 16 – Comparison results between FFDOE-based RSM, FCA and CFD under 846 simulation scenarios. Horizontal axis shows all the CFD results. a) Predicted results by this procedure versus CFD results. b) Predicted results by FCA versus CFD results. c) Exceedance frequency curve versus equivalent stoichiometric cloud volume. Fig. 17 – Dimensionless data predicted by FFDOE-based RSM (the dots present the simulation dimensionless data, the lines present the dimensionless results generated by FFDOE-based RSM, Vf presents the maximum flammable cloud volume and V presents the volume of the process module, R is the ratio of the volume flow of flammable gas Qg and the volume of air Qa . a) Results of wind speed 1.5 m/s. b) Results of wind speed 5 m/s. c) Results of wind speed 3 m/s and this dimensional simulation results are shown in Fig. 15c). 62 Process Safety and Environmental Protection 1 1 4 ( 2 0 1 8 ) 48–63 Generally, conventional DRSM considers dimensionless parameters to generate several curves or surfaces. There are two traditional ways to predict gas cloud volume, namely, non-conservative DRSM and conservative DRSM (Huser and Kvernvold, 2000; Qiao and Zhang, 2010). For non-conservative DRSM, if dimensionless data when wind speeds are 1.5 m/s and 5 m/s are used, two correlations should be firstly developed. These two correlations then will be used to predict non-simulated data for varied leak rates under these two wind speeds. However, the gas cloud volume under wind speed of 3 m/s can not be predicted by using the two correlations derived above (i.e. when wind speeds are 1.5 m/s and 5 m/s). Alternatively, new simulations under wind speed of 3 m/s should be conducted to derive a new correlation accordingly, which may bring extra workload for engineers. In term of the conservative way, the correlations in the conventional RSM do not distinguish the differences between parameters if the ratio of R, which is equal to the volume flow of flammable gas Qg divided by the volume of air Qa , is constant in all different scenarios. Taking Fig. 17 as an example, for the same ratio of R = 0.2, the predicted results by this procedure are 0.34, 0.37, 0.40 with 95% confident intervals, respectively, while the conservative DRSM will only provide a same result as the ratio of R is constant. Furthermore, the curve of wind speed 3 m/s in Fig. 17 is composed of non-simulated data by using FFDOE-based RSM. It is seen that the curve with 95% confident intervals agrees well with simulated results at wind speed of 3 m/s. Whereas in order to derive a corresponding curve by DRSM, a large number of CFD simulations are required, thereby increasing the computation burden. 6. Discussion Although the advantages of the FFDOE-based RSM (i.e. the simplified procedure) have been discussed in the comparisons above, there are two concerns of this procedure. First of all, there are still a large number of simulations conducting in this study. 384 simulations are used to develop the correlation and 500 simulations are used for validation. It is true that 384 simulations bring lots of computation burden. However, only 16 simulations for each set of gas dispersion including different leak directions and wind directions, etc. are performed. In other words, the total number of simulation cases to develop a RSM correlation would significantly decrease if the number of interactive parameters (e.g. leak direction and wind direction, etc.) in one gas dispersion set decrease. Assuming that a combination of 3 interactive parameters are used for one gas dispersion simulation, the total simulation numbers are actually 48, which is on a moderate simulation amount level. Even though only 3 interactive parameters are considered, the FFDOE-based procedure can predict more accurate results than FCA. The second concern is about the decision of the ignition model for future ERAs after the gas dispersion risk analysis in study. So far, there are two widely-used ignition models, i.e. UKOOA and TDIIM models. Due to the fact that only peak values are used in this paper, UKOOA is more suitable and convenient for future gas explosion simulations. It is noted that the FFDOE-based procedure couples the time factor into the correlation to consider the transient variation of Q9, Q6 and FLAM, complicated correlation is not surprisingly seen. Future research work should be performed to build the transient relationship between the Q9, Q6 and FLAM. 7. Conclusion This paper proposes a simplified and more robust procedure to predict the flammable cloud size with acceptable intervals. Compared with two widely-used methods, namely DRSM and FCA, the proposed procedure has several advantages. Firstly, compared with DRSM, the procedure is computationally efficient as it uses dimensional parameters to derive the single correlation rather than dimensionless ones. Secondly, due to the fact that the ASMT (i.e. the combination of F-test and coefficient determination R2 calculation) is used to quickly determine the suitable polynomial order and structure, the procedure is more robust and user-friendly than DRSM. Thirdly, compared to the FCA, the simplified procedure can predict more accurate results for fuel-dominated region of offshore platform. Because the interactive effect of different parameters are taken into account by using the FFDOE. Finally yet importantly, the procedure can be used to generate visual 3D surfaces and 2D lines with 95% confident intervals. The 3D surfaces and 2D lines can be further used for ERAs with stochastic probability analysis, which can be provided as a safety design guidance along with parametric sensitivity analysis. However, it is noted that steady releasing leak rate is conservatively adopted in this study. Transient models such as leak rate, ESD and blow down system, are not considered in gas dispersion simulations. Acknowledgments This study was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for Innovation Program of Seventh-generation Ultra Deepwater Drilling Platform [grant numbers 2016[24]], the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [grant numbers 15CX05018A], and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [grant numbers 16CX06019A] and the Graduate Student Innovation Projects of China University of Petroleum [grant numbers YCXJ2016056]. The authors also greatly appreciate the guidance from Mr. Olav Roald Hansen at Lloyd’s Register Consulting and the technology support about dispersion simulation from Gexcon. References Bezerra, M.A., Santelli, R.E., Oliveira, E.P., Villar, L.S., Escaleira, L.A., 2008. Response surface methodology (RSM) as a tool for optimization in analytical chemistry. Talanta 76, 965–977. 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