FINANCIAL MARKET PRE-FINALS BOND MARKET CAPITAL MARKET- part of financial system which is concerned with raising capital funds by dealing in shares, bonds, and other long term investments. Purpose: Firms and individuals use the money markets primarily to warehouse funds for short periods of time until a more important need or a more productive use for the funds arises. Participants: 1. Federal Local Government Issues: long-term notes and bonds to fund the national debt Purpose: to finance capital projects, such as school and prison construction. Pros: free of default risk since the govnt can print money to pay off debt. 2. Corporation Issues: Bonds and Stocks Purpose: do not have sufficient capital to fund their investment opportunities Capital Market Trading: Primary Market: new issues of stocks and bonds are introduced Secondary Market: the sale of previously issued securities takes place Bonds - securities that represent a debt owed by the issuer to the investor. They are typically issued for a specific amount of money, usually at a given date, and generally with a particular interest rate. Coupon Rate - rate of interest that the issuer must pay, and this periodic interest payment is often called the coupon payment. This rate is usually fixed for the duration of the bond and does not fluctuate with market interest rates TYPES OF BONDS 1. Long Term Government Bonds - They are generally considered to be very safe investments, because the government is unlikely to default on its debt. 2. Municipal Bonds – often exempt from federal taxes, and may also be exempt from state and local taxes depending on the issuer. a. General Obligations Bonds - do not have specific assets pledged as security or a specific source of revenue allocated for their repayment. backed by the "full faith and credit" of the issuer b. Revenue Bonds - backed by the cash flow of a particular revenue-generating project. Revenue bonds tend to be issued more frequently than general obligation bonds Issuer: State & Local Govts 3. Corporate Bonds - generally considered to be riskier than government bonds, but they also offer the potential for higher returns. a. Secured Bonds - with collateral attached b. Unsecured Bonds – No specific collateral is pledged to repay the debt. In the event of default, the bondholders must go to court to seize assets. c. Junk Bonds - A bond with a rating of AAA has the highest grade possible. Treasury Securities 1. Treasury Bill - short-term investments with maturities less than one year. Sold at a discount rate to their face value. 2. Treasury Note - medium-term investments with maturities ranging from one to ten years. Treasury notes pay less interest than T-bonds since T-notes have shorter maturities. 3. Treasury Bonds - A long-term investments with maturities of 10 or 30 years. Offer the highest interest rate to compensate for the longer commitment Have no default risk and interest rate risk. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are a type of Treasury security issued by the U.S. government in 1997. TIPS are indexed to inflation to protect investors from a decline in the purchasing power of their money. TIPS have a fixed interest rate throughout the term of security. However, the principal amount used to compute the interest payment does change based on the consumer price index. It matures 5, 10, or 30 years. Treasury (Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal Securities) STRIPS Known as zero-coupon securities A STRIPS separates the periodic interest payments from the final principal repayment. The investor does not receive interest payments but is repaid the full-face value when the bonds mature. Sold at discount value. Treasury STRIPS are created when a bond' s coupons are separated from the bond. The bond, minus its coupons, is then sold to an investor at a discount price. The difference between that price and the bond' s face value at maturity is the investor ' s profit. Agency Bonds An agency bond is a bond that' s issued by or guaranteed by U.S. federal agencies or governmentsponsored enterprises (GSEs). These bonds are typically used to fund specific public purposes that are deemed to be in the national interest. Low risk Higher return Highly liquid Issuers of agency bonds include the Student Loan Marketing Association (Sallie Mae), the Farmers Home Administration, the Federal, Housing Administration, the Veterans Administrations, and the Federal Land Banks RISK OF MUNICIPAL BONDS 1. Municipal bonds are not default-free. 2. They are not backed by the federal government and can default from time-totime. 3. Many municipal bonds carry call provisions, allowing the issuer to redeem the bond prior to the maturity date CORPORATE BONDS Callable – the issuer may redeem the bonds prior to maturity after a specified date Bond Indenture - contract that states the lender’s rights and privileges and the borrower’s obligations. Any collateral offered as security to the bondholders is also described in the indenture Bearer Bonds - payments were made to whoever had physical possession of the bonds. Replaced by Registered bonds Characteristics: 1. Restrictive Covenants - they must impose rules and restrictions on managers designed to protect the bondholders’ interests. These are known as restrictive covenants. They usually limit the amount of dividends the firm can pay (to conserve cash for interest payments to bondholders) and the ability of the firm to issue additional debt. The interest rate is lower the more restrictions are placed on management through these covenants because the bonds will be considered safer by investors. 2. Call Provision- states the issuer (company) has the right to force the bondholder to sell the bond back. The price bondholders are paid for the bond is usually set at the bond’s par price or slightly higher a. Sinking Fund - requirement in the bond indenture that the firm pay off a portion of the bond issue each year b. Reasons: when rates fall they can reissue cheaper debt -Help manage sinking funds where company gradually buys back some bonds each year -Allows the company to retire bonds that can restrict their actions or adjust their debt levels as needs 3. Conversion- bonds can be converted into shares of common stock. Can be converted into a certain number of common shares at the discretion of the bondholder. Types of CORPORATE BONDS 1. Secured Bonds - with collateral attached. a. Mortgage bonds are used to finance a specific project. b. Equipment trust certificates are bonds secured by tangible non-real-estate property, such as heavy equipment and airplanes. c. Collateral Trust Bonds - backed by financial assets, such as stocks or bonds, which are pledged as collateral to secure the bonds. 2. Unsecured Bonds - without having any specific assets serve as collateral a. Debentures - long-term unsecured bonds that are backed only by the general creditworthiness b. Subordinated Debentures - they have a lower priority claim. holders are paid only after nonsubordinated bondholders have been paid in full. subordinated debenture holders are paid only after non Subordinated bondholders have been paid in full. As a result, subordinated debenture holders are at greater risk of loss. 3. Junk Bonds - issued by the government to raise loans or debts, risk of default and timely repayment is high in the case of junk bonds Junk bonds are also known as high-yield bonds because the interest payments are higher than for the average corporate bond Financial Guarantees for Bonds - ensures that the lender will be paid both the principal and the interest in the event the issuer defaults. Credit Default Swap by J.P Morgan (1995) - provides insurance against default in the principal and interest payments of a credit instrument. OVERSIGHT THE BOND MARKETS Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) 1. Rules that say which bond transactions must be publicly reported. 2. The establishment of a trading platform that makes transaction data readily available to the public. Under Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) Current Yield - an approximation of the yield to maturity on coupon bonds that is often reported because it is easily calculated; yearly coupon payment / price of the security MORTGAGE MARKET HISTORY OF MORTGAGE 1863 – National Banking Act of 1863 that restricts mortgage lending. 1880s-1890s - Selling bonds to raise the long-term funds they lent Agricultural recession resulted in many defaults. Post-World War I - National banks were authorized to make mortgage loans. Great Depression (1930s) - Led to foreclosures and caused property values to collapse MORTGAGE - It is long-term loan secured by real estate used to purchase or maintain a home, plot of land, or other types of real estate. Collateral - This lending institution will place a lien against the property, and this remain in effect until the loan is paid. A lien is a public record that attaches to the title of the property, advising that the property is security for a loan, and it gives the lender the right to sell the property if the underlying loan defaults. Down Payments - Are intended to make the borrower less likely to default on the loan. a borrower who does not make the borrower less likely to default on the loan PRIVATE MORTAGE INSURANCE - PMI is an insurance policy that guarantees to make up any discrepancy between the value of the property and the loan amount, should a default occur . BORROWER QUALIFICATIONS - Qualifying for a mortgage loan was different from qualifying for a bunk loan because most lender sold their mortgage loans to one a few federal agencies in the secodary mortgage market. Mortgage Interest Rates 1. Market rates. Long-term market rates are determined by the supply of and demand for long- term funds, which are in turn influenced by a number of global, national, and regional factors. 2. Term. Longer-term mortgages have higher interest rates than shorter-term mortgages. The usual mortgage lifetime is either 15 or 30 years. Lenders also offer 20-year loans, though they are not as popular. 3. Discount points. Discount points (or simply points) are interest payments made at the beginning of a loan. A loan with one discount point means that the borrower pays 1% of the loan amount at closing, the moment when the borrower signs the loan paper and receives the proceeds of the loan LOAN AMORTIZATION - Mortgage loan borrowers agree to pay a monthly amount of principal and interest that will fully amortize the loan by its maturity. “Fully amortize” means that the payments will pay off the outstanding indebtedness by the time the loan matures. TYPES OF MORTGAGE LOANS Insured Mortgages - are originated by banks or other mortgage lenders but are guaranteed by either the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) or the Veterans Administration (VA). Conventional Mortgages - are originated by the same sources as insured loans but are not guaranteed. Fixed-rate mortgages - the interest rate and the monthly payment do not vary over the life of the mortgage Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) - is tied to some market interest rate and therefore changes over time. OTHER TYPE OF MORTGAGES Graduated-Payment Mortgages (GPMs) Graduatedpayment mortgages are useful for home buyers who expect their incomes to rise. The GPM has lower payments in the first few years; then the payments rise. Early payments may not even be sufficient to cover the interest due, in which case the principal balance increases. Growing-Equity Mortgages (GEMs) - Lenders designed the growing-equity mortgage loan to help the borrower pay off the loan in a shorter period of time. With a GEM, the payments will initially be the same as on a conventional mortgage. Second Mortgages (Piggyback) – are loans that are secured by the same real estate that is used to secure the first mortgage. The second mortgage is junior to the original loan Reverse Annuity Mortgages (RAMs) - The reverse annuity mortgage is an innovative method for retired people to live on the equity they have in their homes. The contract for a RAM has the bank advancing funds on a monthly schedule. This increasing-balance loan is secured by the real estate. Mortgage-Lending Institutions Originally established with a mandate from Congress to provide mortgage loans to families. Thrift institutions attracted depositors by offering slightly higher interest rates on deposits. Played a crucial role in the early growth of the housing industry by raising short-term funds through deposits for long-term mortgage loans. Reserve accounts are established for most mortgage loans to permit the lender to make tax and insurance payments for the borrower. mortgages have unknown default risk. Investors in mortgages do not want to expend energy evaluating the credit of borrowers. These problems inspired the creation of the mortgage-backed security, also known as a securitized mortgage Mortgage Pool - large number of mortgages assembled into Securitization - A trustee, such as a bank or a government agency, holds the mortgage pool, which serves as collateral for the new security. mortgage pass-through, a security that has the borrower’s mortgage payments pass through the trustee before being disbursed to the investors in the mortgage pass-through. Prepayment Risk - The possibility that mortgages will prepay and force investors to seek alternative investments, usually with lower returns Types of Pass-Through Securities Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA) PassThroughs Ginnie Mae began guaranteeing pass-through securities in 1968 Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC) PassThroughs Freddie Mac was created to assist savings and loan associations, which are not eligible to originate Ginnie Mae–guaranteed loans Private Pass-Throughs (PIPs) In addition to the agency passthroughs, intermediaries in the private sector have offered privately issued pass-through securities. The first of these PIPs was offered by BankAmerica in 1977 Collateralized Mortgage Obligation (CMO). CMOs are securities classified by when prepayment is likely to occur. These differ from traditional mortgage-backed securities in that they are offered in different maturity groups. Jumbo Mortgages are often bundled into pools to back private pass-through. SUBPRIME LOANS - are those made to borrowers who do not qualify for loans at the going market rate of interest because of a poor credit rating or because the loan is larger than justified by their income. THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET Foreign Exchange Market - trade between countries involves the mutual exchange of different currencies (or, more usually, bank deposits denominated in different currencies) A. Spot Transactions - Involve the immediate (two day) exchange of bank deposits. B. Forward Transactions - involve the exchange of bank deposits at some specified future date Importance: They affect the relative price of domestic and foreign goods. The dollar price of French goods to an American is determined by interaction of two factors: The price of French goods in euros, and the euro-dollar exchange rate COUNTRY’S CURRENCY APPRECIATES Domestic goods – cheaper Foreign goods – expensive COUNTRY’S CURRENCY DEPPRECIATES Domestic goods – Expensive Foreign goods – Cheaper Law of One Price If two countries produce an identical good, and transportation costs and trade barriers are very low, the price of the good should be the same throughout the world no matter which country produces it Exchange rate is determined by the law of supply and demand THEORY OF PURCHASING POWER PARITY It is an economic theory that compares the purchasing power of various world currencies to one another. It states that exchange rates between any two currencies will adjust to reflect changes in the price levels of the two countries. The theory of PPP is simply an application of the law of one price to national price levels PPP is an important metric because it provides a way to compare levels of growth and standards of living in various nations, each of which has its own currency. it provides a framework for understanding the relative value of currencies and predicting exchange rate movements Real Exchange Rate - the rate at which domestic goods can be exchanged for foreign goods Why the Theory of Purchasing Power Parity Cannot Fully Explain Exchange Rates Assumption of Identical Goods- PPP assumes that all goods are identical between countries, meaning their prices should be equal when converted into a common currency. Non-Traded Goods and Services- PPP overlooks nontraded goods and services, such as housing, local amenities, and certain services, which can significantly impact a country's price level but aren't subject to international trade Transportation Costs and Trade Barriers- PPP assumes that transportation costs and trade barriers are very low or non existent Short-Term Fluctuations- While PPP holds true in the long run, it often fails to predict short-term exchange rate movements accurately. Short-term fluctuations can be influenced by various factors such as speculative trading, market sentiments, and unexpected economic events, which PPP doesn't account for comprehensively. Factors That Affect Exchange Rates in the Long Run - If a factor increases the demand for domestic goods relative to foreign goods, the domestic currency will appreciate; if a factor decreases the relative demand for domestic goods, the domestic currency will depreciate. 1. Relative Price Levels - comparison of the prices of goods and services between countries Appreciate – a fall in the country’s relative level Depreciates - a rise in the country’s relative level 2. Trade Barriers – government-imposed restrictions increasing trade barriers will causes a country’s currency to appreciate in the long run. 3. Productivity - crucial aspect as it can significantly influence a country’s economic growth and competitiveness. 4. Preferences for Domestic vs Foreign Goods Appreciate - Increased demand for a country’s exports Depreciate - increased demand for imports causes FACTORS THAT AFFECT EXCHANGE RATES IN THE SHORT RUN 1. Investor sentiment: feelings and attitudes of investors that impact buying and selling decisions in markets. 2. Geopolitical events: events involving nations and governments that influence global markets and economies, such as wars, trade disputes, and political tensions. 3. Economic data releases: reports providing information on economic performance, like unemployment rates, GDP growth, and inflation figures, which guide investment decisions. 4. Shifts in monetary policy: changes in central bank policies, such as interest rates and money supply, aimed at achieving economic goals like controlling inflation or stimulating growth ASSET MARKET APPROACH This approach is rooted in a theory called portfolio choice. THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM foreign exchange interventions - central banks regularly engage in international financial transactions. Conducted by monetary authorities to influence foreign exchange rates by buying and selling currency in foreign exchange markets. a. Unsterilized Intervention – a direct intervention in the foreign exchange market by the central bank which directly impact the economy. b. Sterilized Intervention – involve simultaneously buying and selling foreign currency and securities offset any impact to the money supply International reserves - holdings of assets denominated in foreign currency Balance of Payments - a bookkeeping system for recording all receipts and payments that have a direct bearing on the movement of funds between a nation (private sector and government) and foreign countries. Current account shows international transactions that involve current flows of funds into and out of a country. The difference between merchandise exports and imports, the net receipts from trade, is called the trade balance, but more accurately is referred to as the merchandise trade balance Exchange of Rate Regime A. Fixed exchange rate regime, the value of a currency is pegged relative to the value of another currency (called the anchor currency) so that the exchange rate is fixed in terms of the anchor currency B. Floating exchange rate regime, the value of a currency is allowed to fluctuate against all other currencies. managed float regime or dirty float - countries intervene in foreign exchange markets in an attempt to influence their exchange rates by buying and selling foreign assets International Monetary Fund (IMF) - During Fixes Exchange Regime - Bretton Woods Agreement task of promoting the growth of world trade by setting rules for the maintenance of fixed exchange rates and by making loans to countries that were experiencing balance-of-payments difficulties. FIXED EXCHNAGE RATE REGIME When the domestic currency is overvalued, the central bank must purchase domestic currency to keep the exchange rate fixed, but as a result it loses international reserves. KNOWN AS DEVALUATION When the domestic currency is undervalued, the central bank must sell domestic currency to keep the exchange rate fixed, but as a result, it gains international reserves. KNOWN AS REVALUATION Perfect Capital Mobility - if there are no barriers to domestic residents purchasing foreign assets or foreigners purchasing domestic assets Policy trilemma (impossible trinity) – It states that three objectives is not possible, therefore needed to choose 2 options only. a. Free movement of capital b. Independent (autonomous) monetary policy c. Fixed (managed) exchange rates Monetary Unions - A variant of a fixed exchange rate regime in which a group of countries decide to adopt a common currency, thereby fixing their exchange rates vis-à-vis each other Currency Boards and Dollarization Currency board - which the domestic currency is backed 100% by a foreign currency (say, dollars) and in which the note-issuing authority, whether the central bank or the government, establishes a fixed exchange rate to this foreign currency and stands ready to exchange domestic currency for the foreign currency at this rate whenever the public requests it Dollarization - which a country abandons its currency altogether and adopts that of another country. Speculative Attack – economic scenario where speculators aggressively trade a nation’s currency anticipating its depreciation in the near future. Managed Float (Dirty Float) – exchange rate regime in which the exchange rate is neither entirely float nor fixed. Capital Controls – measures that are taken by either the government or the central bank to regulate the outflow and inflow of the foreign capital in the country. a. Taxes b. Tariffs c. Volume restrictions d. Outright legislation Emerging market countries are countries that have recently opened up to flows of goods, services, and capital from the rest of the world. Controls on Capital Outflows Capital outflows can promote financial instability in emerging market countries because when domestic residents and foreigners pull their capital out of a country, the resulting capital outflow forces a country to devalue its currency Controls on Capital Inflows Controls on capital inflows receive more support. It can lead to lending boom and excessive risk taking on the part of the banks. They may block those funds from entering a country that would be used for productive investment opportunities