FinTree JuiceNotes 2023 Quantitative Methods|Economics Chartered Financial Analyst - Level I https://www.fintreeindia.com/ © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. INDEX Quantitative Methods 1 The Time Value of Money 5 2 Organizing, Visualizing and Describing Data 8 3 Probability Concepts 16 4 Common Probability Distributions 21 5 Sampling and Estimation 27 6 Hypothesis Testing 31 7 Introduction to Linear Regression 36 e Economics Name of Reading Topics in Demand and Supply Analysis 9 The Firm and Market structures 45 10 Aggregate Output, Prices and Economic Growth 49 11 Understanding Business cycles 55 12 Monetary and Fiscal Policy 59 13 Introduction to Geopolitics 65 14 International Trade and Capital Flows 68 15 Currency Exchange rates 73 Fi nT re 8 42 Quantitative Methods Notice : Unless otherwise stated, copyright and all intellectual property rights in all the course material(s) provided, is the property of FinTree Education Private Limited. 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FinTree CommuterNotes TM A normal person spends about two-three hours travelling every day – going to work, walking down the street to buy stuff or just going for a walk. Wondering how to utilize this travel time? The geeks at FinTree have the perfect solution for you! FinTree's Commuter Notes! Helping you study when you can't! Commuter Notes are short audio clips that can be downloaded on any smart phone. These audios are an interaction between the faculty and 2-3 candidates discussing a topic and will help you learn subconsciously! © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. The Time Value of Money 5 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 6 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Forum Link Video Link 7 https://www.fintreeindia.com/ © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Organizing, Visualizing & Describing Data Identify and compare data types LOS a Types of data Categorical data Aka Qualitative data Numerical data Continuous data Discreet data Eg. Price returns of a stock Coupon rates in Bonds Classification of publicly listed stocks into 11 sectors Morningstar and Standard & Poor's star ratings for investment funds Time Series Data are a sequence of observations for a single observational unit of a specific variable collected over time and at discrete and typically equally spaced intervals of time. Data are a list of the observations of a specific variable from multiple observational units at a given point in time. Ordinal data ee Cross-Sectional Nominal data Fi nT r For example, January inflation rates for each country For example, the daily closing prices of a particular stock. Panel Data Panel data are a mix of time-series and cross-sectional data that are frequently used in financial analysis and modeling. Panel data consist of observations through time on one or more variables for multiple observational units Structured Data Unstructured Data Structured data are highly organized in a pre-defined manner, usually with repeating patterns. Unstructured data, in contrast, are data Eg. data issued by stock exchanges, such as intra-day Eg. Some common types of unstructured data are text—such as financial news, posts in social media etc that do not follow any conventionally organized forms 8 https://www.fintreeindia.com/ LOS b © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Describe how data are organized for quantitative analysis A one-dimensional array is the simplest format for representing a collection of data of the same data type, so it is suitable for representing a single variable. A two-dimensional rectangular array (also called a data table) is one of the most popular forms for organizing data for processing by computers or for presenting data visually for consumption by humans. LOS c Interpret frequency and related distributions LOS d Interpret a contingency table Portfolio Frequencies by Sector and Market Capitallization Market Capitalization Variable (3 Levels) Sector Variable (5 Labela) Small Mid Large Total Communication Services 55 35 20 110 Consumer Staples 50 30 30 110 Energy 175 95 20 290 Health care 275 105 55 435 Utilities 20 25 10 55 Total 575 290 135 1,000 9 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Relative Frequencies as Percentage of Total Market Capitalization Variable (3 Levels) Sector Variable (5 Labela) Small Mid Large Total Communication Services 5.5% 3.5% 2.0% 11.0% Consumer Staples 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 11.0% Energy 17.5% 9.5% 2.0% 29.0% Health care 27.5% 10.5% 5.5% 43.5% Utilities 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 5.5% Total 57.5% 29.0% 13.5% 100% LOS e Describe ways that data may be visualized and evaluate uses of specific visualizations 10 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS f Describe How to Select among Visualization Types ● Histogram Numerical Data Polygon ● Cumulative ● Scatter Plot Distribution (Two Variables) ● Scatter Plot Matrix Relationship (Multiple Variables) ● Heat Map What to explore or Present ? Chart Distribution ● (Multiple Variables) Categorical Data Comparison Among Categories ● Bar Chart ● Tree Map ● Heat Map LOS g ● Frequency ● Bar Chart ● Tree Map ● Heat Map Over time Unstructured Data ● World Cloud ● Line Chart (Two Variables) ● Bubble Line Chart (Two Variables) Calculate and interpret measures of central tendency 11 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS h Deciding which central tendency measure to use Collect Sample Include all values, including outllers? Yes Compounding ? Yes Extreme Outllers? Yes Arithmetic Mean Geometric Mean Harmonic Mean Trimmed Mean Winsorized Mean 12 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS i Calculate quantiles and interpret related visualizations LOS j Calculate and interpret measures of dispersion LOS k Calculate and interpret target downside deviation Starget = n For all X-i<B (Xi - B)2 n-1 Where B is the target and n is the total number of sample observations 13 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS l Interpret skewness LOS m Interpret kurtosis 14 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS n Interpret correlation between two variables All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Forum Link Video Link © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Probability Concepts 16 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 17 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 18 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 19 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Forum Link Video Link 20 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Common Probability Distribution 21 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 22 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 23 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 24 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 25 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Forum Link Video Link 26 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Sampling and Estimation 27 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 28 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 29 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Forum Link Video Link 30 Hypothesis Testing © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 31 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 32 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 33 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. k Eg. r=0.4 n=62 confidence level= 95% Step 1: Define hypothesis Step 2: Calculate test statistic Step 3: Calculate critical values Perform a test of significance H 0 : r = 0, H a : r ≠ 0 rx n-2 1-r 2 0.4 x 62 - 2 3.3806 1 - 0.4 2 t-distribution, DoF = 60 -2 +2 Since calculate test statistic lies outside the range, conclusion is ‘Reject the null hypothesis’ ‘r’ is statistically significant, which means that population ‘r’ would be different than zero Assumption of the test- The two populations (x and y) follow a normal distribution (normally called bivariate normal distribution) If this assumption is violated use spearman rank correlation coefficient l Non Paramatic test is used in the following situations ● Data used does NOT meet distribution requirements Example : We want to test a hypothesis with respect to mean but sample size is small and population is non - normal ( z or t-test won’t work!) ● Data is given in RANKS Example : Hypothesis test on ranks of fund manager ● Hypothesis is not with respect to parameter Example : Test whether a sample is random or not or whether a population follows a normal distribution or not 34 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Some important nonparametic tests Parametric Tests concerning a single mean t-test z-test Tests concerning differences between means t-test Approximate t-test Tests concerning mean difference (paired comparison tests) t-test Nonparametric Wilcoxon signed - ranked test Mann-Whitney U test Wilcoxon signed-ranked test All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Forum Link Video Link 35 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Introduction to Linear Regression Dependent variable Independent variable Aka response variable Aka the regressor Variable you are seeking to explain Variable you are using to explain changes in the dependent variable Also referred to as explained variable/endogenous variable/predicted variable Also referred to as explanatory variable/exogenous variable/predicting variable Rp = Dependent variable RFR + (Rm − RFR) Independent variable Intercept LOS b β y Dependent variable LOS a Slope Independent variable x Describe the least squares criterion, how it is used to estimate regression coefficients, and their interpretation Sum of squared errors (SSE): Regression line: Slope coefficient (beta): Sum of the squared vertical distances between the estimated and actual Y-values Line that minimizes the SSE Describes change in ‘y’ for one unit change in ‘x’ Cov (x,y) Variance (x) LOS c Assumptions underlying linear regression Œ Relationship between dependent and independent variable is linear Independent variable is uncorrelated with the error term Ž Expected value of the error term is zero Variance of the error term is constant (NOT ZERO). The economic relationship b/w variables is intact for the entire time period (eg. change in political regime) Error term is uncorrelated with other observations (eg. seasonality) ‘ Error term is normally distributed 36 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS d&e Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Y: Mean Yi: Actual value Sum of squared errors (SSE) Measures unexplained variation aka sum of squared residuals ^ Yi: Predicted value Regression sum of squares (RSS) Total sum of squares (SST) Measures explained variation Measures total variation ^ ∑ (Yi − Yi)2 ∑ (Yi − Yi)2 ^ ∑ (Yi − Yi)2 ª Higher the RSS, better the quality of regression ª R2 = RSS / SST ª R2 = Expained Variation / Total Variation ANOVA Table Source of variation DoF Sum of squares Mean sum of squares Regression (explained) k RSS MSR = RSS/k Error (unexplained) n−k−1 SSE MSE = SSE/n − k − 1 Total n−1 SST F-statistic = MSR/MSE with ‘k’ and ‘n − k − 1' DoF When to use F-test and t-test F-test Y = b 0 + b 1 x1 + b 2 x2 + ε t-test To test the engine of the car Use t-test t-test To test if the car is operating as a whole Use f-test To test individual tyres of the car Use t-test 37 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Standard error of estimate, coefficient of determination and confidence interval for regression coefficient Eg. ‘x’ 10 15 20 30 Actual ‘y’ 17 19 35 45 Predicted ‘y’ 15.81 23.36 30.91 46.01 Errors 1.19 −4.36 4.09 −1.01 Squared errors 1.416 19 16.73 1.02 Standard error of estimate (SEE) = Coefficient of determination (R2): √ SSE n−2 = Sum of squared errors (SSE) 38.166 √ 38.166 2 = 4.36 % variation of dependent variable explained by % variation of the independent variable For simple linear equation, R2 = r2 LOS f Eg. Formulate a null and an alternative hypothesis about a population value of a regression coefficient, and determine whether the null hypothesis is rejected at a given level of significance ^ b1 = 0.48 SE = 0.35 n = 42 Confidence interval = 90% ^ Step 1: Define hypothesis Step 2: Calculate test statistic Step 3: Calculate critical values Perform a test of significance ^ H0: b1 = 0, Ha: b1 ≠ 0 Sample stat. − HV 0.48 − 0 Std. error 0.35 1.371 t-distribution, DoF = 40 −1.684 1.684 Since calculated test statistic lies inside the range, conclusion is ‘Failed to reject the null hypothesis’ Slope is not significantly different from zero One Tailed Test Eg. ^ b1 = 0.48 SE = 0.35 n = 42 Step 1: Define hypothesis Step 2: Calculate test statistic Step 3: Calculate critical values Confidence interval = 90% ^ Perform a test of significance ^ H0: b1 < 0, Ha: b1 > 0 Sample stat. − HV 0.48 − 0 Std. error 0.35 1.371 t-distribution, DoF = 40 0 1.684 Since calculated test statistic lies inside the range, conclusion is ‘Failed to reject the null hypothesis’ Slope is not significantly different from zero 38 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS g Calculate and interpret the predicted value for the dependent variable, and a prediction interval for it Confidence interval for the predicted Predicted value of value of dependent variable dependent variable ^ Y ^ ^ Intercept Predicted value (y) Eg. ^ b0 + b1 × Xp = Y Forecasted value (x) Predicted value (y) Slope Forecasted return (x) = 12% Critical value (t-value) Intercept = −4% Slope = 0.75 Predicted value ^ = Standard error Standard error = 2.68 Calculate predicted value (y) and 95% confidence interval n = 32 Y ± (tc × SE) ^ Confidence interval ^ Y ^ b0 + b1 × Xp ± (tc × SE) 5 ± (2.042 × 2.68) Y = −4 + 0.75 × 12 = 5% −0.472 to 10.472 LOS h Describe different functional forms of simple linear regressions Log-lin Model Model Lin-Log Model Log-Log Model Dependent variable is logarithmic but the independent variable is linear Dependent variable is linear but the independent variable is logarithmic Similar to probit and logit but uses financial ratios as independent variables Selecting the Correct Functional Form The key to fitting the appropriate functional form of a simple linear regression is examining the goodness of fit measures: Ÿ The coefficient of determination (R2), Ÿ The F-statistic, Ÿ The standard error of the estimate (se) Ÿ As well as examining whether there are patterns in the residual All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Forum Link Video Link 39 Economics FinTree Placement Services Video Tutorials Mock Exams Monthly Tests Check out some Awesome Study Material of FinTree Juice Notes Commuter Notes Quizzes © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Topics in Demand And Supply Analysis 42 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 43 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Forum Link Video Link 44 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. The Firm And Market Structures 45 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 46 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 47 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Video Link Forum Link 48 https://www.fintreeindia.com/ LOS a © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Aggregate Output, Prices And Economic Growth GDP using expenditure and income approach ª Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total market value of final goods and services produced within a country during a certain time period ª It is most widely used measure of the size of a nation’s economy ª It includes only purchases of newly produced goods and services ª Sale or resale of goods produced in previous periods is excluded ª Goods and services provided by government are included in GDP (valued at cost) ª Value of owner-occupied housing is also included in GDP (value is estimated) Expenditure approach - Total amount spent on goods and services produced during the period Calculated as; Consumption (C) + Investment (I) + Government expenditure (G) + [Exports − Imports] (X − M) Income approach - Total income earned by households and companies during the period Calculated as; Consumption (C) + Savings (S) + Taxes (T) LOS b LOS c Expenditure approach Sum of value added Value of final output GDP is calculated by adding the value created at each stage of production GDP is calculated using only the final value of good and services Nominal GDP Real GDP Output - Current year Output - Current year Prices - Current year Prices - Base year GDP deflator - Nominal GDP × 100 Real GDP 49 https://www.fintreeindia.com/ LOS d © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. National income - Compensation to employees + Corporate and govt. profits before tax + Non corporate business income + Rent + Interest + (Indirect taxes − Subsidies) Personal income - National income + Transfer payments by govt. − Corporate and indirect taxes − Undistributed corporate profits Personal disposable income - Personal income − Personal taxes GDP under income approach can also be calculated as : National income + Capital consumption + allowance Depreciation of physical capital Statistical discrepancy Adjustment for difference between GDP under income and expenditure approach GNP = GDP + [Net income earned by domestic residents Business from overseas investments] - [Net income earned by foreign residents / businesses from domestic investments] GDP of a country = 1000 million Income earned by domestic residents = 80 million Income earned by Foreign residents = 60 million Therefore , GNP = 100 + 80 - 60 = 120 LOS e Fundamental relationship among C, S, T, I, G and (X − M) Total income must equal total expenditures GDP under income approach = GDP under expenditure approach C + S + T = C + I + G + (X − M) S = I + (G − T) + (X − M) Fiscal deficit Trade surplus (G − T) = (S − I) + (M − X) Fiscal deficit must be financed by some combination of trade deficit or excess of savings over investment 50 https://www.fintreeindia.com/ © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS f IS and LM curves IS - Investment and Savings LM - Liquidity and Money supply Real interest rate (r) Real interest rate (r) Real income Real income Œ +ve relation r and (S − I) Assumption Real money supply is constant −ve relation y and (S − I) Therefore, −ve relation b/w r and y Actual Income = Planned Expenditure Ÿy Ç = Precautionary & transaction demand Ç (S − I) = (G − T) + (X − M) y Ç Fiscal deficit & Trade surplus È = (S −I) È Real interest rate (r) IS ŸDemand for money Ç = Cost of money Ç Ÿr Ç = y Ç Aggregate demand curve Real money supply ‘Constant’ P Ç = MS/P È Price LM2 LM1 If MS/P È then, LM curve shifts to the left (increases real interest rate) Output (y) Output (y) IS curve - −ve relation (r & y) LM curve - +ve relation (r & y) Aggregate demand curve −ve relation (p & y) ª Marginal propensity to save (MPS) - Proportion of additional income that is saved ª Marginal propensity to consume (MPC) - Proportion of additional income spent on consumption ª MPS + MPC = 100% 51 https://www.fintreeindia.com/ © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS g Aggregate supply curve Price LRAS SRAS VSRAS Potential GDP è VSRAS - Firms adjust output without changing price. VSRAS curve is perfectly elastic è SRAS - When prices increase, input costs (such as wages) do not increase as they are fixed in the short run è LRAS - All input prices are variable in the long run. LRAS curve is perfectly inelastic and it shows the level of potential GDP è Price level has no long run effect on aggregate supply LOS h Causes of movements along and shifts in aggregate demand and supply curves Price Price P2 P1 Q2 Q1 Output Movement along the curve Reasons : Change in price (all other factors keeping constant) Aggregate demand curve ª Increase in consumers’ wealth ª Optimistic business expectations ª High future income expectation by consumer ª High capacity utilization ª Expansionary monetary policy ª Expansionary fiscal policy ª Home currency depreciation ª Global economic growth Output Shift in curve Shift in curve Reasons Aggregate supply curve ª Increase in productivity ª Increase in supply and quality of labor ª Increase in supply of natural resources ª Increase in the stock of physical capital ª Technology improvement ª Currency appreciation ª In the long-run the curve shifts because of ª changes in labor supply, supply of physical ª and human capital and productivity/ ª technology ª In the short-run the curve will shift because ª of changes in potential GDP, nominal wages, ª input prices, expectations about future ª prices, business taxes and subsidies, and ª exchange rate. 52 https://www.fintreeindia.com/ © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS i, j & k Short-run effects of changes in aggregate demand and supply Type of change Ç È Ç È Ç È Ç Aggregate supply Ç È È È Aggregate supply È Ç Ç Price Price Price P1 P0 P0 P0 P1 P1 Q0 Q1 Output Q1 Q0 Price P1 P0 Output Output Q1 Q0 Q1 Q0 Output Recessionary gap Potential GDP > Real GDP Inflationary gap Real GDP > Potential GDP Stagflation High inflation combined with slow economic growth and high level of unemployment LOS l Short-run effects of shifts in both aggregate demand and supply Aggregate supply Ç Ç Ç Ç Or È È È È Ç Or È Ç È Ç Or È Ç È Ç Ç Or È È 53 https://www.fintreeindia.com/ LOS m © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Sources of economic growth Sustainability of economic growth ª Labor supply ª Human capital ª Physical capital stock ª Technology ª Natural resources ª Rate of increase in the labor force ª Rate of increase in labor productivity Dutch Disease: Even if a country has Natural Resources Currency appreciates Which makes other industries uncompetitive Govt. focuses only on one sector Production function LOS n & o Describes relationship between output and labor, capital and total factor productivity Total factor productivity (TFP) - It is a multiplier that quantifies the amount of output growth that cannot be explained by the increases in labor and capital. Increase in total factor productivity can be attributed to advances in technology ∆Y = TFP + α × ∆K + (1 − α) × ∆L Residual income that explains the effect of technology Growth in GDP Growth of capital Share of growth explained by the capital Growth of labor Growth in potential GDP Growth in per capita potential GDP Growth in technology + WL (Growth in labor) + WC (Growth in capital) Growth in technology + WC (Growth in capital) Above model is a part neoclassical economics All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Forum Link Video Link 54 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Understanding Business Cycles 55 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 56 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Creates upward Bias ∑( ∑( ) ) ∑( ∑( ) ) Hedonic pricing - Adjusting price to reflect quantity 57 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. bove potential GDP All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Forum Link Video Link 58 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Monetary And Fiscal Policy 59 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 60 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 61 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Exchange rate targeting may result in volatily of money supply as domestic monetary policy will have to adapt to the necessity of maintaining stable exchange rate. Net effect of exchange rate targeting is that the targeting country will have the same inflation rate as the targeting currency. 62 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. p ● ● ● Balanced Budget Multiplier If a government increases G(government expenditure) by the same amount as it raises taxes, the aggregate output actually rises. A Balanced Budget lease to a rise in output, which in turn leads to further rise in output and income via the multiplier effect. The Balanced Budget Multiplier always take the value unity. Arguments about being concerned about size of fiscal deficit 63 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Forum Link Watch video with important testable concepts here Video Link 64 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Introduction to Geopolitics LOS a Describe geopolitics from a cooperation versus competition perspective. » Geopolitics refers to interactions among nations, including the actions of state actors (national governments) and non-state actors (corporations, nongovernment organizations, and individuals) » One way to examine geopolitics is through analysis of the extent to which individual countries cooperate with one another » In terms of economics, areas of cooperation include freedom of movement across borders for goods, services, and capital; agreements to harmonize tariffs; international standardization of rules; and transfers of information and technology. » While a country that engages with other countries on these matters may be considered cooperative and one that does not may be considered non-cooperative, the extent of cooperation actually varies along a spectrum » We can analyze a country's national interests as a hierarchy, with its top priorities being those that ensure its survival. A country's geophysical resource endowment may influence its priorities. For example, a country that has mineral resources but lacks arable land needs to trade minerals for food, and therefore has an interest in cooperating with other countries to keep international trade lanes open. » To facilitate the flow of resources, state and non-state actors may cooperate on standardization of regulations and processes. Example - IFRS » Cultural factors, such as historical emigration patterns or a shared language, can be another influence on a country's level of cooperation » Strong and stable institutions can make cooperation easier for state and non-state actors. » Cultural exchange is one means through which a country may exercise soft power, the ability to influence other countries without using or threatening force. 65 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS b Describe geopolitics and its relationship with globalization. » Globalization refers to the long-term trend toward worldwide integration of economic activity and cultures. » We may contrast globalization with nationalism, which in this content refers to a nation pursuing its own economic interests independently » We can think of countries' actions along a spectrum from globalization to nationalism Multilateralism (cooperation and globalization) refers to countries that engage extensively in Hegemony (non-cooperation and globalization) international trade and other forms of refers to countries that are open to globalization cooperation with many other countries. but have the size and scale to influence other Some countries may exhibit regionalism, countries without necessarily cooperating. cooperating multilaterally with nearby countries but less so with the world at large. Globalization Hegemony Multilateralism Non-Cooperation Cooperation Autarky Autarky (non-cooperation and nationalism) refers to a goal of national self-reliance, including producing most or all necessary goods and services domestically. Autarky is often associated with a statedominated society in general, with attributes such as government control of industry and media. Bilateralism Nationalism/ Anti-Globalization Bilateralism (cooperation and nationalism) refers to cooperation between two countries. A country that engages in bilateralism may have many such relationships with other countries while tending not to involve itself in multicountry arrangements. 66 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. LOS c Describe tools of geopolitics and their impact on regions and economies. We can consider tools of geopolitics, the means by which (primarily) state actors advance their interests in the world, as falling into three broad categories of national security, economic, and financial. National Security Tools Include armed conflict, espionage, or bilateral or multilateral agreements designed to reinforce or prevent armed conflict LOS d Economic Tools • Can be cooperative or non-cooperative. • Cooperative economic tools include free trade areas, common markets, and economic and monetary unions • Non cooperative economic tools include domestic content requirements, voluntary export restraints etc Financial Tools • Foreign investment and the exchange of currencies. • Sanctions, or restrictions on a specific geopolitical actor’s financial interest, are a financial tool that state actors may use alongside national security tools. Describe geopolitical risk and its impact on investments. Geopolitical risk is the possibility of events that interrupt peaceful international relations. We can classify geopolitical risk into three types: » Event risk refers to events about which we know the timing but not the outcome, such as national elections. » Exogenous risk refers to unanticipated events, such as outbreaks of war or rebellion. » Thematic risk refers to known factors that have effects over long periods, such as human migration patterns or cyber risks. 67 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. » To forecast the effect on investments of a geopolitical risk, we need to consider its probability (likelihood), the magnitude of its effects on investment outcomes (impact), and how quickly investment values would reflect these effects (velocity). » We can use our framework of cooperation and globalization to help estimate the likelihood of geopolitical risk. » Countries that are more cooperative and globalized tend to have less likelihood of some geopolitical risks, such as armed conflict, but may have greater likelihood of other risks, such as the supply chain disruptions that followed the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. » To analyse the velocity of geopolitical risk we can classify risks as high velocity (short term), medium velocity, or low velocity (long term). » Exogenous risks often have high-velocity effects on financial markets and investment values. » To facilitate the flow of resources, state and non-state actors may cooperate on standardization of regulations and processes. Example - IFRS » Black swan risk is a term for the risk of low likelihood exogenous events that have substantial short-term effects. » Investors with longer time horizons typically do not need to react to these kinds of events, but investors with shorter horizons might find it necessary to react. » Medium-velocity risks can potentially damage specific companies or industries by increasing their costs or disrupting their production processes, while low-velocity risks tend to affect them in the “environmental, social, and governance” realm. » Analysing these kinds of risk is important for investors with long time horizons. » Because analysing geopolitical risks requires effort, time, and resources, investors should consider whether the impact of geopolitical risk is likely to be high or low, and focus their analysis on risks that could have a high impact. » With regard to those risks, investors should determine whether they are likely to have discrete impacts on a company or industry, or broad impacts on a country, a region, or the world. » Business cycles can affect the impact of geopolitical risk, in that these risks may have greater impacts on investment values when an economy is in recession than they would have during an expansion. » Investors can use qualitative or quantitative scenario analysis to gauge the potential effects of geopolitical risks on their portfolios. 68 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. International Trade And Capital Flows 69 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Differences in technology is a major source of comparative advantage but other countries can close the technological gap or gain a technological advantage. This model assumes that technology in each industry is the same among countries, but it varies between industries. (abundant) 70 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 71 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Results of customs Union Trade Creation Trade Diversion Trade creation occurs when regional integration results in the replacement of higher - cost domestic production by lower cost imports from other members. Trade diversion occurs when lower - cost imports from nonmember countries are replaced with higher - cost imports from members. 72 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Watch video with important testable concepts here Forum Link Video Link 73 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Currency Exchange Rates 74 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 75 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 76 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. 77 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. All queries/doubts about this reading can be posted on FinTree Forum for the reading Forum Link Watch video with important testable concepts here Video Link 78 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Z- TABLE (COMPLEMENTARY CUMULATIVE) StandardNormal Distribution P (Z ::;; z) = N(z) for z ::;; 0 z 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0 0.5000 0.4960 0.4920 0.4880 0.4840 0.4801 0.4761 0.4721 0.4681 0.4641 -0.1 0.4602 0.4562 0.4522 0.4483 0.4443 0.4404 0.4364 0.4325 0.4286 0.4247 -0.2 0.4207 0.4168 0.4129 0.4090 0.4052 0.4013 0.3974 0.3936 0.3897 0.3859 -0.3 0.3821 0.3783 0.3745 0.3707 0.3669 0.3632 0.3594 0.3557 0.3520 0.3483 -0.4 0.3446 0.3409 0.3372 0.3336 0.3300 0.3264 0.3228 0.3192 0.3156 0.3121 -0.5 0.3085 0.3050 0.3015 0.2981 0.2946 0.2912 0.2877 0.2843 0.2810 0.2776 -0.6 0.2743 0.2709 0.2676 0.2643 0.2611 0.2578 0.2546 0.2514 0.2483 0.2451 -0.7 0.2420 0.2389 0.2358 0.2327 0.2296 0.2266 0.2236 0.2206 0.2177 0.2148 -0.8 0.2119 0.2090 0.2061 0.2033 0.2005 0.1977 0.1949 0.1922 0.1894 0.1867 -0.9 0.1841 0.1814 0.1788 0.1762 0.1736 0.1711 0.1685 0.1660 0.1635 0.1611 -1 0.1587 0.1562 0.1539 0.1515 0.1492 0.1469 0.1446 0.1423 0.1401 0.1379 -1.1 0.1357 0.1335 0.1314 0.1292 0.1271 0.1251 0.1230 0.1210 0.1190 0.1170 -1.2 0.1151 0.1131 0.1112 0.1093 0.1075 0.1056 0.1038 0.1020 0.1003 0.0985 -1.3 0.0968 0.095'1 0.0934 0.0918 0.0901 0.0885 0.0869 0.0853 0.0838 0.0823 -1.4 0.0808 0.0793 0.0778 0.0764 0.0749 0.0735 0.0721 0.0708 0.0694 0.0681 -1.5 0.0668 0.0655 0.0643 0.0630 0.0618 0.0606 0.0594 0.0582 0.0571 0.0559 -1.6 0.0548 0.0537 0.0526 0.0516 0.0505 0.0495 0.0485 0.0475 0.0465 0.0455 -1.7 0.0446 0.0436 0.0427 0.0418 0.0409 0.0401 0.0392 0.0384 0.0375 0.0367 -1.8 0.0359 0.0351 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.0301 0.0294 -1.9 0.0287 0.0281 0.0274 0.0268 0.0262 0.0256 0.0250 0.0244 0.0239 0.0233 -2 0.0228 0.0222 0.0217 0.0212 0.0207 0.0202 0.0197 0.0192 0.0188 0.0183 -2.1 0.0179 0.0174 0.0170 0.0166 0.0162 0.0158 0.0154 0.0150 0.0146 0.0143 0.0125 0.0122 0.0119 0.0116 0.0113 0.0110 -2.2 0.0139 0.0136 0.0132 0.0129 -2.3 0.0107 0.0104 0.0102 0.0099 0.0096 0.0094 0.0091 0.0089 0.0087 0.0084 -2.4 0.0082 0.0080 0.0078 0.0075 0.0073 0.0071 0.0069 0.0068 0.0066 0.0064 -2.5 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 0.0049 0.0048 -2.6 0.0047 0.0045 0.0044 0.0043 0.0041 0.0040 0.0039 0.0038 0.0037 0.0036 -2.7 0.0035 0.0034 0.0033 0.0032 0.0031 0.0030 0.0029 0.0028 0.0027 0.0026 -2.8 0.0026 0.0025 0.0024 0.0023 0.0023 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0020 0.0019 -2.9 0.0019 0.0018 0.0018 0.0017 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014 -3.0 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0012 0.0012 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 0.0010 79 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. Z-TABLE (CUMULA TIVE) StandardNormal Distribution P (Z :-s; z) = N(z) for z 2 0 z 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359 0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753 0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141 0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517 0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879 0.5 0.6 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549 0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852 0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133 0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389 1 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621 1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830 1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015 0.9162 0.9177 1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 1. 4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319 1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441 1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545 1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633 1. 8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706 1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767 2 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817 2. 1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857 2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890 2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936 2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 2.5 2.6 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964 2.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974 2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981 2.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986 3 0.9987 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990 0.9990 80 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. STUDENTS T-DISTRIBUTION Level of significance for One-Tailed Test df l 0.1 1 o.o5 1 o.o25 1 o.o1 1 o.oo5 1 o.ooo5 Level of significance for Two-Tailed Test df 0.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 0.1 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.001 3.0777 6.3138 12.7062 31.8205 63.6567 636.6192 1.8856 2.9200 4.3027 6.9646 9.9248 31.5991 1.6377 2.3534 3.1824 4.5407 5.8409 12.9240 1.5332 2.1318 2.7764 3.7469 4.6041 8.6103 1.4759 2.0150 2.5706 3.3649 4.0321 6.8688 1.4398 1.9432 2.4469 3.1427 3.7074 5.9588 1.4149 1.8946 2.3646 2.9980 3.4995 5.4079 1.3968 1.8595 2.3060 2.8965 3.3554 5.0413 1.3830 1.8331 2.2622 2.8214 3.2498 4.7809 1.3722 1.8125 2.2281 2.7638 3.1693 4.5869 1.3634 1.7959 2.2010 2.7181 3.1058 4.4370 1.3562 1.7823 2.1788 2.6810 3.0545 4.3178 1.3502 1.7709 2.1604 2.6503 3.0123 4.2208 1.3450 1.7613 2.1448 2.6245 2.9768 4.1405 1.3406 1.7531 2.1314 2.6025 2.9467 4.0728 1.3368 1.7459 2.1199 2.5835 2.9208 4.0150 1.3334 1.7396 2.1098 2.5669 2.8982 3.9651 1.3304 1.734 1 2.1009 2.5524 2.8784 3.9216 1.3277 1.7291 2.0930 2.5395 2.8609 3.8834 1.3253 1.7247 2.0860 2.5280 2.8453 3.8495 1.3232 1.7207 2.0796 2.5 176 2.8314 3.8193 1.3212 1.7171 2.0739 2.5083 2.8 188 3.7921 1.3195 1.7139 2.0687 2.4999 2.8073 3.7676 1.3178 1.7109 2.0639 2.4922 2.7969 3.7454 1.3163 1.7081 2.0595 2.4851 2.7874 3.7251 26 27 28 29 30 1.3150 1.7056 2.0555 2.4786 2.7787 3.7066 1.3137 40 60 120 200 00 1.7033 2.0518 2.4727 2.7707 3.6896 1.3125 1.7011 2.0484 2.4671 2.7633 3.6739 1.3114 1.6991 2.0452 2.4620 2.7564 3.6594 1.3104 1.6973 2.0423 2.4573 2.7500 3.6460 1.3031 1.6839 2.0211 2.4233 2.7045 3.5510 1.2958 1.6706 2.0003 2.3901 2.6603 3.4602 1.2886 1.6577 1.9799 2.3578 2.6174 3.3735 1.2858 1.6525 1.9719 2.345 1 2.6006 3.3398 1.2816 1.6449 1.9600 2.3264 2.5759 3.2906 81 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. F-TABLE AT 5 PERCENT (UPPER TAIL) Degrees of freedom of numerator along the top most row Degrees of freedom of denominator along the left most column df 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 15 20 24 30 40 1 161 199 216 225 230 234 237 239 241 242 244 246 248 249 250 251 2 18.5 19.0 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.5 3 10.1 9.55 9.28 9.12 9.01 8.94 8.89 8.85 8.81 8.79 8.74 8.70 8.66 8.64 8.62 8.59 4 7.71 6.94 6.59 6.39 6.26 6.16 6.09 6.04 6.00 5.96 5.91 5.86 5.80 5.77 5.75 5.72 5 6.61 5.79 5.41 5.19 5.05 4.95 4.88 4.82 4.77 4.74 4.68 4.62 4.56 4.53 4.50 4.46 6 5.99 5.14 4.76 4.53 4.39 4.28 4.21 4.15 4.10 4.06 4.00 3.94 3.87 3.84 3.81 3.77 7 8 5.59 4.74 4.35 4.12 3.97 3.87 3.79 3.73 3.68 3.64 3.57 3.51 3.44 3.41 3.38 3.34 5.32 4.46 4.07 3.84 3.69 3.58 3.50 3.44 3.39 3.35 3.28 3.22 3.15 3.12 3.08 3.04 9 5.12 4.26 3.86 3.63 3.48 3.37 3.29 3.23 3.18 3.14 3.07 3.01 2.94 2.90 2.86 2.83 10 4.96 4.10 3.71 3.48 3.33 3.22 3.14 3.07 3.02 2.98 2.91 2.85 2.77 2.74 2.70 2.66 11 12 4.84 3.98 3.59 3.36 3.20 3.09 3.01 2.95 2.90 2.85 2.79 2.72 2.65 2.61 2.57 2.53 4.75 3.89 3.49 3.26 3.11 3.00 2.91 2.85 2.80 2.75 2.69 2.62 2.54 2.51 2.47 2.43 13 4.67 3.81 3.41 3.18 3.03 2.92 2.83 2.77 2.71 2.67 2.60 2.53 2.46 2.42 2.38 2.34 14 4.60 3.74 3.34 3.11 2.96 2.85 2.76 2.70 2.65 2.60 2.53 2.46 2.39 2.35 2.31 2.27 15 4.54 3.68 3.29 3.06 2.90 2.79 2.71 2.64 2.59 2.54 2.48 2.40 2.33 2.29 2.25 2.20 16 4.49 3.63 3.24 3.01 2.85 2.74 2.66 2.59 2.54 2.49 2.42 2.35 2.28 2.24 2.19 2.15 17 4.45 3.59 3.20 2.96 2.81 2.70 2.61 2.55 2.49 2.45 2.38 2.31 2.23 2.19 2.15 2.10 18 4.41 3.55 3.16 2.93 2.77 2.66 2.58 2.51 2.46 2.41 2.34 2.27 2.19 2.15 2.11 2.06 19 4.38 3.52 3.13 2.90 2.74 2.63 2.54 2.48 2.42 2.38 2.31 2.23 2.16 2.11 2.07 2.03 20 4.35 3.49 3.10 2.87 2.71 2.60 2.51 2.45 2.39 2.35 2.28 2.20 2.12 2.08 2.04 1.99 21 4.32 3.47 3.07 2.84 2.68 2.57 2.49 2.42 2.37 2.32 2.25 2.18 2.10 2.05 2.01 1.96 22 4.30 3.44 3.05 2.82 2.66 2.55 2.46 2.40 2.34 2.30 2.23 2.15 2.07 2.03 1.98 1.94 23 4.28 3.42 3.03 2.80 2.64 2.53 2.44 2.37 2.32 2.27 2.20 2.13 2.05 2.01 1.96 1.91 24 4.26 3.40 3.01 2.78 2.62 2.51 2.42 2.36 2.30 2.25 2.18 2.11 2.03 1.98 1.94 1.89 25 4.24 3.39 2.99 2.76 2.60 2.49 2.40 2.34 2.28 2.24 2.16 2.09 2.01 1.96 1.92 1.87 26 4.23 3.37 2.98 2.74 2.59 2.47 2.39 2.32 2.27 2.22 2.15 2.07 1.99 1.95 1.90 1.85 27 4.21 3.35 2.96 2.73 2.57 2.46 2.37 2.31 2.25 2.20 2.13 2.06 1.97 1.93 1.88 1.84 28 29 4.20 3.34 2.95 2.71 2.56 2.45 2.36 2.29 2.24 2.19 2.12 2.04 1.96 1.91 1.87 1.82 4.18 3.33 2.93 2.70 2.55 2.43 2.35 2.28 2.22 2.18 2.10 2.03 1.94 1.90 1.85 1.81 30 4.17 3.32 2.92 2.69 2.53 2.42 2.33 2.27 2.21 2.16 2.09 2.01 1.93 1.89 1.84 1.79 40 4.08 3.23 2.84 2.61 2.45 2.34 2.25 2. 18 2.12 2.08 2.00 1.92 1.84 1.79 1.74 1.69 60 120 4.00 3.15 2.76 2.53 2.37 2.25 2.17 2.10 2.04 1.99 1.92 1.84 1.75 1.70 . 1.65 1.59 3.92 3.07 2.68 2.45 2.29 2.18 2.09 2.02 1.96 1.91 1.83 1.75 1.66 1.61 1.55 1.50 3.84 3.00 2.60 2.37 2.2 1 2.10 2.01 1.94 1.88 1.83 1.75 1.67 1.57 1.52 1.46 1.39 00 82 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. F-TABLE AT 2.5 PERCENT (UPPER TAIL) Degrees of freedom of numerator along the top most row Degrees of freedom of denominator along the left most column 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 15 20 24 30 40 1 648 799 864 900 922 937 948 957 963 969 977 985 993 997 1001 1006 2 38.51 39.00 39.17 39.25 39.30 39.33 39.36 39.37 39.39 39.40 39.41 39.43 39.45 39.46 39.46 39.47 3 17.44 16.04 15.44 15.10 14.88 14.73 14.62 14.54 14.47 14.42 14.34 14.25 14.17 14.12 14.08 14.04 df 4 12.22 10.65 9.98 9.60 9.36 9.20 9.07 8.98 8.90 8.84 8.75 8.66 8.56 8.51 8.46 8.41 5 10.01 8.43 7.76 7.39 7.15 6.98 6.85 6.76 6.68 6.62 6.52 6.43 6.33 6.28 6.23 6.18 6 8.81 7.26 6.60 6.23 5.99 5.82 5.70 5.60 5.52 5.46 5.37 5.27 5.17 5.12 5.07 5.01 7 8.07 6.54 5.89 5.52 5.29 5. 12 4.99 4.90 4.82 4.76 4.67 4.57 4.47 4.41 4.36 4.31 8 7.57 6.06 5.42 5.05 4.82 4.65 4.53 4.43 4.36 4.30 4.20 4.10 4.00 3.95 3.89 3.84 9 7.21 5.71 5.08 4.72 4.48 4.32 4.20 4. 10 4.03 3.96 3.87 3.77 3.67 3.61 3.56 3.51 10 6.94 5.46 4.83 4.47 4.24 4.07 3.95 3.85 3.78 3.72 3.62 3.52 3.42 3.37 3.31 3.26 11 6.72 5.26 4.63 4.28 4.04 3.88 3.76 3.66 3.59 3.53 3.43 3.33 3.23 3.17 3.12 3.06 12 6.55 5.10 4.47 4.12 3.89 3.73 3.61 3.51 3.44 3.37 3.28 3.18 3.07 3.02 2.96 2.91 13 6.41 4.97 4.35 4.00 3.77 3.60 3.48 3.39 3.31 3.25 3.15 3.05 2.95 2.89 2.84 2.78 14 6.30 4.86 4.24 3.89 3.66 3.50 3.38 3.29 3.21 3.15 3.05 2.95 2.84 2.79 2.73 2.67 15 6.20 4.77 4.15 3.80 3.58 3.41 3.29 3.20 3.12 3.06 2.96 2.86 2.76 2.70 2.64 2.59 16 6.12 4.69 4.08 3.73 3.50 3.34 3.22 3.12 3.05 2.99 2.89 2.79 2.68 2.63 2.57 2.51 17 6.04 4.62 4.01 3.66 3.44 3.28 3.16 3.06 2.98 2.92 2.82 2.72 2.62 2.56 2.50 2.44 18 5.98 4.56 3.95 3.6 1 3.38 3.22 3.10 3.01 2.93 2.87 2.77 2.67 2.56 2.50 2.44 2.38 19 5.92 4.51 3.90 3.56 3.33 3.17 3.05 2.96 2.88 2.82 2:72 2.62 2.51 2.45 2.39 2.33 20 5.87 4.46 3.86 3.51 3.29 3.13 3.01 2.91 2.84 2.77 2.68 2.57 2.46 2.41 2.35 2.29 21 5.83 4.42 3.82 3.48 3.25 3.09 2.97 2.87 2.80 2.73 2.64 2.53 2.42 2.37 2.31 2.2? 22 . 5.79 4.38 3.78 3.44 3.22 3.05 2.93 2.84 2.76 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.39 2.33 2.27 2.21 23 5.75 4.35 3.75 3.41 3.18 3.02 2.90 2.81 2.73 2.67 2.57 2.47 2.36 2.30 2.24 2.18 24 5.72 4.32 3.72 3.38 3.15 2.99 2.87 2.78 2.70 2.64 2.54 2.44 2.33 2.27 2.21 2.15 25 5.69 4.29 3.69 3.35 3.13 2.97 2.85 2.75 2.68 2.61 2.51 2.41 2.30 2.24 2.18 2.12 26 5.66 4.27 3.67 3.33 3.10 2.94 2.82 2.73 2.65 2.59 2.49 2.39 2.28 2.22 2.16 2.09 27 5.63 4.24 3.65 3.31 3.08 2.92 2.80 2.71 2.63 2.57 2.47 2.36 2.25 2.19 2.13 2.07 28 5.61 4.22 3.63 3.29 3.06 2.90 2.78 2.69 2.61 2.55 2.45 2.34 2.23 2.17 2. 11 2.05 29 5.59 4.20 3.6 1 ·3.27 3.04 2.88 2.76 2.67 2.59 2.53 2.43 2.32 2.21 2.15 2.09 2.03 30 5.57 4.18 3.59 3.25 3.03 2.87 2.75 2.65 2.57 2.51 2.41 2.31 2.20 2.14 2.07 2.01 40 5.42 4.05 3.46 3.13 2.90 2.74 2.62 2.53 2.45 2.39 2.29 2.18 2.07 2.01 1.94 1.88 60 120 5.29 3.93 3.34 3.01 2.79 2.63 2.51 2.41 2.33 2.27 2.17 2.06 1.94 1.88 1.82 1.74 5.15 3.80 3.23 2.89 2.67 2.52 2.39 2.30 2.22 2.16 2.05 1.94 1.82 1.76 1.69 1.61 00 5.02 3.69 3.12 2.79 2.57 2.41 2.29 2. 19 2.11 2.05 1.94 1.83 1.71 1.64 1.57 1.48 83 © 2023 FinTree Education Pvt. Ltd. CHI -SQUARED TABLE Values of X 2 (degrees of freedom , level of significance) probability in right tail. df 0.99 0.975 0.95 0.9 0.1 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 1 0.000157 0.000982 0.003932 0.015791 2.705544 3.841459 5.023886 6.634897 7.879439 2 0.020101 0.050636 0.102587 0.210721 4.60517 5.991465 7.377759 9.21034 10.59663 3 0.114832 0.215795 0.351846 0.584374 6.251388 7.814728 9.348404 11.34487 12.83816 4 0.297109 0.484419 0.710723 1.063623 7.77944 9.487729 11.14329 13.2767 14.86026 5 0.554298 0.831212 1.145476 1.610308 9.236357 11.0705 12.8325 15.08627 16.7496 6 0.87209 1.237344 1.635383 2.204131 10.64464 12.59159 14.44938 16.81189 18.54758 7 1.239042 1.689869 2.16735 2.833107 12.01704 14.06714 16.01276 18.47531 20.27774 8 1.646497 2.179731 2.732637 3.489539 13.36157 15.50731 17.53455 20.09024 21.95495 9 2.087901 2.70039 3.325113 4.168159 14.68366 16.91898 19.02277 21.66599 23.58935 10 2.558212 3.246973 3.940299 4.865182 15.98718 18.30704 20.48318 23.20925 25.18818 11 3.053484 3.815748 4.574813 5.577785 17.27501 19.67514 21.92005 24.72497 26.75685 12 3.570569 4.403789 5.226029 6.303796 18.54935 21.02607 23.33666 26.21697 28.29952 13 4.106915 5.008751 5.891864 7.041505 19.81193 22.36203 24.7356 27.68825 29.81947 14 4.660425 5.628726 6.570631 7.789534 21.06414 23.68479 26.11895 29.14124 31.31935 15 5.229349 6.262138 7.260944 8.546756 22.30713 24.99579 27.48839 30.57791 32.80132 16 5.812213 6.907664 7.961646 9.312236 23.54183 26.29623 28 .84535 31.99993 34.26719 17 6.40776 7.564186 8.67176 10.08519 24.76904 27.58711 30.19101 33.40866 35.71847 18 7.014911 8.230746 9.390455 10.86494 25.98942 28.8693 31.52638 34.80531 37.15645 19 7.63273 8.906517 10. 11701 11.65091 27.20357 30.14353 32.85233 36.19087 38.58226 20 8.260398 9.590778 10.85081 12.44261 28.41198 31.41043 34.16961 37.56623 39.99685 21 8.897198 10.2829 11.59131 13.2396 29.61509 32.67057 35.47888 38.93217 41.40106 22 9.542492 10.98232 12.33801 14.04149 30.81328 33.92444 36.78071 40.28936 42.79565 23 10.19572 11.68855 13.09051 14.84796 32.0069 35.17246 38.07563 41.6384 44.18128 24 10.85636 12.40115 13.84843 15.65868 33.19624 36.41503 39.36408 42.97982 45.55851 25 11.52398 13.11972 14.61141 16.47341 34.38159 37.65248 40.64647 44.3141 46.92789 26 12.19815 13.84391 15.37916 17.29189 35.56317 38.88514 41.92317 45.64168 48.28988 27 12.8785 14.57338 16.1514 18.1139 36.74122 40 .11327 43.19451 46.96294 49 .64492 28 13.56471 15.30786 16.92788 18.93924 37.91592 41.33714 44.46079 48.27824 50.99338 29 14.25645 16.04707 17.70837 19.76774 39.08747 42 .55697 45.72229 49.58788 52.33562 30 14.95346 16.79077 18.49266 20.59923 40 .25602 43.77297 46.97924 50.89218 53.67196 50 29.70668 32.35736 34.76425 37.68865 63.16712 67.50481 71.4202 76.15389 79.48998 60 37.48485 40.48175 43 .18796 46.45889 74.39701 79.08194 83.29768 88.37942 91.9517 80 53.54008 57.15317 60.39148 64.27785 96.5782 101.8795 106.6286 112.3288 116.3211 100 70.0649 74.22193 77.92947 82.35814 118.498 124.3421 129.5612 135.8067 140.1695 84 FinTree Placement Services Video Tutorials Mock Exams Monthly Tests Check out some Awesome Study Material of FinTree Juice Notes Commuter Notes Quizzes FinTree CFA® Level I JuiceNotes 2022 © 2022 FinTree Education Pvt. 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