faculty of economics and business finance | | Economics of Banking Welcome to the course! 1 1 faculty of economics and business finance | | 2 Economics of Banking Lectures: Daniel te Kaat (2,4,6), Kasper Roszbach (1,3,5,7) Tutorials: Fred Giesenow, Carolina Laureti, David Peng Administration: Ellie Jelsema 2 | PRACTICALITIES 3 | How to contact us › All relevant information is listed in the course manual on Brightspace. › For organizational and administrative matters, contact Ellie Jelsema at e.t.jelsema@rug.nl 4 | Classes, tutorials, Q&A, exam › 7 lectures of 2 hours Overview of core material (course manual on Brightspace) - Chapters in Mishkin’s book - A few articles - Online videos › 6 Tutorials Questions posted on Brightspace Prepare exercises in advance, tutorials to discuss & understand better › Assessment: Group assignment (20%): sign up by 20/4, hand in before 16/5 Exam (80%): some exercises to get a feel, in lectures › Questions Discussion board for general questions Lectures and tutorials 5 | How much time do you need? › Remember: 15 ECTS implies a 42h workweek This course is 5 ECTS, meaning a 14h workweek Minus contact hours, this leaves 10-11h for self-study to read, summarize, make exercises, prepare exam, etc. 6 | Exam › Training questions at end of lectures, discuss in “next” class › Open & multiple choice Q´s (numerical & essay) › Stands for 80% of final course grade › What can you do to be well-prepared? Attend the lectures Follow the reading schedule week-by-week Prepare the tutorials before you attend them Sign up for and make the group assignment Be active, ask questions, discuss with fellow students 7 | 8 What can you do to learn from the course? https://www.youtube.com/embed/k9X0ogs0Ihc? si=kWb7ekQbJiIi6ZEE | COURSE SETUP 9 | 10 Topics of lectures 1. Why do we have “banks”? 2. An overview of the financial system 3. Interest rates 4. What banks do, their structure 5. Regulation of banks 6. Monetary policy 7. Financial crises | 11 Week 1: Overview › Why do we have banks? Doug Diamond [Nobel symposium, 0:37-6:17] | 12 Week 2: Interest rates › Banks “live” off the yield curve Lend long Interest margin (return) Maturity mismatch (risk) Borrow short | 13 Week 2: Interest rates › Important to understand the yield curve Discuss theories, why it moves What does slope of YC tell about economic activity and risks for banks | 14 Week 3: Why do banks exist? › Risk-sharing, transaction costs, agency problems Adverse selection (screening) Moral hazard (monitoring) › Empirical evidence | 15 Week 4: What banks do › Delve into the balance sheet of banks How balance sheets work How to assess bank performance What risks banks run and how to manage this - Interest rate risk - Credit risk - Market risk - Etc. | 16 Week 5: Regulation and competition › What is the structure of the banking markets › The role of regulation? Basel framework › Important institutions | 17 Week 6: Monetary policy › Role of monetary policy Central banks (Un)conventional policies - Effect on yield curve Real effects | 18 Week 7: Financial crises › Causes of the 2008/9 financial crisis Low interest rates Securitization Interconnectedness › Policy responses › Economic fallout › SVB failure | 19 TODAY’S LECTURE AN OVERVIEW OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM | 20 Agenda › Introduction to the financial system and money › Discuss key institutions and concepts Banks, NBFI › Why are they important? | 21 Why is the financial system important? › Why do many people put their (liquid) savings in a bank? › Efficient allocation of resources across people & time › How do maturity/price of credit affect real econ. outcomes? › How do P2P lending, FinTech, BigTech affect credit market efficiency? › Why spend public resources on supervising fin institutions? | 22 Function of financial markets › Financial markets (FM): Channel “funds” (i.e., money) - from those with surpluses (savings) ... - to those with a current need (early consumption or investment) › Channeling funds can be done [graph] Directly - via markets, by means of more or less tradable securities Indirectly - via financial intermediaries (FI), e.g., banks etc - can be specialized, diversifying risk, exploit scale economies | 23 Efficiency and welfare improvement › How can financial system increase efficiency? Enable intertemporal substitution of consumption Exploit differences in productivity/productive opportunities Allow for risk-sharing › Whether it improves welfare will depend on market’s structure/features Information frictions Transaction costs Financial structure and financial development Market power Heterogeneous effects on households | 24 What is the current focus of banking research? › The role of heterogeneity in consumers/firms Differential effects of policy/regulation on households/firms How does capital mobility between countries affects e.g., effectiveness of regulation through bank behavior › Climate change How will variation in the exposure to climate change and transition risks affect banks, firms, households, nations? › Do new financial institutions raise efficiency or risk? Do FinTech firms create more information that improves credit allocation or do they fragment information access | 25 Question #1 Generally, many depositors (savers) like demandable deposits (that can be withdrawn at any time) while borrowers prefer longer term credit. What can banks do to mitigate the risk of short-term term funding? What can banks do to reduce the riskiness of long-terms loans? Discuss 2 minutes and summarize | 26 Direct vs indirect finance › Is funding allocated through markets or financial intermediaries › No sharp line E.g., VC funds can combine market funding with intermediary role Banks can be a market-maker (syndicates) Banks provide credit for equity purchases, against collateral pledge P2P platform can link lenders and borrowers but also grant credit itself | 27 There’s not “one” FM! Various markets meet different needs, and (agents) face different regulations (capital, liquidity, etc) › Debt vs equity markets Variation in risk: equity holder is residual claimant › Primary vs secondary markets Underwriters, syndicates, dealer/brokers Market liquidity important for proper valuation of assets [example of the 113 mn $ diner] and efficient markets › Exchanges/CCP’s, OTC markets Variation in counterparty: standardization, insurance, supervision › Money vs capital markets (duration) | 28 Short vs long lived assets › Money market instruments Treasury bills (T-bills) CD’s, CP, interbank deposits, repos › Capital market instruments Stocks, mortgages etc, corporate bonds, government bonds | 29 FM or FI, why and when? › If FM were complete and absent frictions, markets are efficient allocation mechanism › What breaks FM’s efficiency and creates a role for FI? Transaction costs - Information asymmetries - Time and money needed for/spent on a financial transaction Scope for economies of scale Adverse selection and moral hazard FI have scale advantage and develop monitoring and screening expertise Need for risk-sharing - Both savers and borrowers have specific preferences for a risk-return combination. FI can transform (increase or reduce) assets’ riskiness (risk concentration or diversification) | 30 When FM, when FI? › Some assets are characterized by higher transaction costs or information asymmetries; some savers/investors have greater need for risk sharing. This creates a scope for FI Mortgages: carry little aggregate risk, benefit from diversified portfolios Small business lending: small investors lack knowledge about single firms | 31 Question #2 How do these financial institutions increase efficiency? [transaction costs, opportunity for risk-sharing, asymmetric information] Index fund Loan syndicate Centralized counterparty Rating agency Commercial bank | 32 Why are FM and FI regulated? › Intermediaries differ by source/maturity of funding, level of insurance/risk, regulation › Retail savers\investors face similar frictions in relationship \w FI as \w FM, lack resources to monitor Creates potential role for the government, i.e., regulation › Purpose of regulation - and supervision Increase and improve information for retail investors/savers - Maintain a sound financial system - Disclosure requirements Entry requirements, standards, inspection Avoid panics, preserve trust in financial system - deposit insurance › Trade-off efficiency vs stability | 33 SPECIAL ROLE OF BANKS | 34 Why are banks special? › Create and provide liquidity for households and firms (dep/loans) [The Narrow Bank][Icesave] › Run the payment system [Fintech] › Can diversify risk and reduce costs for retail savers › Specialized in collecting information (screen, monitor) › Main tool for transmission of monetary policy | 35 EU bank-based, US market-based Source: BIS Quarterly Review, 2014 | 36 EU bank-based, but less so over time Source: Financial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area, ECB 2020 | 37 Debt securities play larger role in US Source: Financial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area, ECB 2020 | 38 Question #3 Bank vs market based What are reasons why small economies tend to be more bankbased than market-based? | 39 Fintechs & markets drivers of change Source: Financial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area, ECB 2020 | 40 Banks are adjusting to tech change Source: Financial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area, ECB 2020 | 41 MONEY: WHAT FUNCTIONS? | 42 Money has three main functions › Money = anything generally accepted in payment for goods, services, debts Changes over time as certain assets become easier to convert into currency or cheque account deposits Greatly reduced interest in steering or even monitoring M › Three functions Medium of exchange Store of value Unit of account | 43 Measures of money | 44 Question #4: › Which properties (medium of exchange, unit of account, store of value) do the following assets lack to be classified as money? Amazon cash Boxes of detergent during a hyperinflation Bitcoin Central bank digital currency (wallets capped at 500€) Banknotes in a country where shops only accept cards | 45 Upcoming › SIGN up for group › Next week The role of interest rates (lecture) Tutorial Training questions for week 3 1. Explain why regulators sometimes rescue non-banks despite them not having guaranteed deposits 2. Fintech lending platforms can lower transaction costs for small ”investors”. Explain how they potentially can increase information asymmetries and what consequences this may have. | 46 Thanks for your attention Enjoy the course! kasper.roszbach@norges-bank.no RETURN | 47 Flow of funds in the financial system Lending platforms Insurance companies, pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds (Commercial and investment) banks, venture capitalists Lending platforms Bonds Stocks Return | 48 Are deposits insured? Return | 49 Return | 50 Fintech conversion Return | 51 Finance and growth From Alex Popov, Evidence on finance and economic growth, ECB working paper (2017) Return | 52 Full reserve bank | 53 What do banks do? › Take deposits › Make loans Commercial banks › Insurance › Investment banking Raising debt and equity; M&A advice, etc Universal banks | 54 Balance sheet Assets Cash + liq. assets Securities (incl. govt) Interbank loans Liabilities Deposits (short/long term) Interbank deposits Bonds Loans (short/long term) Fixed assets Equity capital | 55 Income statement Interest income Interest expense - Retail + - Investment, private banking, fees Net interest income Non-interest income Non-interest expenses Provision for loan losses Income before taxes Taxes Net income - | 56 Aggregated balance sheet of Euro area banks (x1000 bn EUR, 2021-12-31) Assets Liabilities Loans to residents 13,5 Deposits by residents Securities issued by residents 7,0 Currency 1,5 Fixed assets 0,2 Other liabilities 11,4 Other assets 11,1 Equity 3,0 Total 31,8 Total 31,8 15,9