US INDUSTRY (NAICS) REPORT 11199 Hay & Crop Farming in the US New harvest: Changing consumer preferences will likely drive demand for industry products Brenna Butler | August 2020 IBISWorld.com +1-800-330-3772 info@IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Contents About This Industry...........................................5 Competitive Landscape...................................26 Industry Definition..........................................................5 Market Share Concentration....................................... 26 Major Players................................................................. 5 Key Success Factors................................................... 26 Main Activities................................................................5 Cost Structure Benchmarks........................................ 27 Supply Chain...................................................................6 Basis of Competition................................................... 30 Similar Industries........................................................... 6 Barriers to Entry........................................................... 31 Related International Industries....................................6 Industry Globalization..................................................31 Industry at a Glance.......................................... 7 Major Companies............................................ 33 Executive Summary....................................................... 8 Major Players............................................................... 33 Other Players................................................................33 Industry Performance....................................... 9 Operating Conditions...................................... 34 Key External Drivers....................................................... 9 Current Performance................................................... 10 Capital Intensity........................................................... 34 Technology And Systems........................................... 35 Industry Outlook............................................. 14 Outlook......................................................................... 14 Performance Outlook Data......................................... 15 Revenue Volatility........................................................ 37 Regulation & Policy...................................................... 38 Industry Assistance..................................................... 40 Industry Life Cycle....................................................... 15 Key Statistics.................................................. 43 Products and Markets..................................... 18 Industry Data................................................................43 Supply Chain................................................................ 18 Products and Services.................................................18 Demand Determinants................................................ 19 Major Markets..............................................................20 Annual Change.............................................................43 Key Ratios.................................................................... 43 Industry Financial Ratios............................................. 44 Additional Resources...................................... 45 International Trade.......................................................22 Business Locations..................................................... 23 Additional Resources.................................................. 45 Industry Jargon............................................................ 45 Glossary Terms............................................................45 2 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 About IBISWorld IBISWorld specializes in industry research with coverage on thousands of global industries. 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We offer research on industries in the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, the UK, Ireland, China and Mexico, as well as industries that are truly global in nature. 3 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Covid-19 Coronavirus Impact Update IBISWorld's analysts constantly monitor the industry impacts of current events in real-time – here is an update of how this industry is likely to be impacted as a result of the global COVID-19 pandemic: • Revenue in the Hay and Crop Farming industry is forecast to decrease 11.1% in 2020 as a result of the greater economic slowdown and supply chain disruptions in downstream markets, ultimately weakening demand. For more detail, please see the Demand Determinants chapter. • Corn is a prominent substitute for industry products and easily switched out when prices rise. In 2020, the price of corn is expected to fall 10.5%, making industry products relatively more expensive and therefore weakening demand further. For more detail, please see the Current Performance chapter. • Significant programs and policies have been passed to directly aid industry operators through the economic uncertainty. For more detail, please see the Industry Assistance chapter. Note: The content in this report is currently being updated to reflect the trends outlined above. 4 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 About This Industry Industry Definition More than half the farms in this industry grow hay, while a small number grow sugar beets. A variety of other crops, such as hops and herbs, are included in the industry. Some operators also gather agave, spices, tea and maple sap. Major Players There are no major players in this industry Main Activities The primary activities of this industry: Hay, alfalfa and other farming Sugar beet farming Hop farming Aloe, mint and herb farming Tea and spice farming Maple tapping The major products and services in this industry: Hay Sugar beets Hops Mint Maple products Other crops 5 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Supply Chain SIMILAR INDUSTRIES Soybean Farming in the US Corn Farming in the US Cotton Farming in the US Sugarcane Harvesting in the US Wheat, Barley & Sorghum Farming in the US Tobacco Growing in the US RELATED INTERNATIONAL INDUSTRIES Hay and Other Crop Growing in Australia 6 Hay and Other Crop Growing in New Zealand IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Industry at a Glance Products & Services Segmentation 26.5% 4.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 66.4% Hay Sugar beets Hops Mint Maple products Other crops Hay & Crop Farming Source: IBISWorld Major Players % = share of industry revenue SWOT STRENGTHS Low Imports Low Customer Class Concentration WEAKNESSES Low & Steady Barriers to Entry High Competition Low Profit vs. Sector Average High Product/Service Concentration Low Revenue per Employee High Capital Requirements OPPORTUNITIES High Revenue Growth (2020-2025) Trade-weighted index THREATS Low Revenue Growth (2005-2020) Low Revenue Growth (2015-2020) Low Outlier Growth Low Performance Drivers Demand from beef cattle production 7 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 Executive Summary August 2020 The Hay and Crop Farming industry produces hay, sugar beets and other crops, including hops and herbs, agave, spices, tea and maple sap. The industry primarily provides products to cattle ranchers, food producers and wholesalers. Most industry operators are dedicated to growing hay, which producers either sell to cattle ranchers that use hay as feed or keep and use it for their own cattle. Industry revenue has decreased at an annualized rate of 2.4% to $27.5 billion over the five years to 2020, including a decrease of 11.1% in 2020 alone. The industry has experienced mild revenue declines over the past five years due to a steep decline in the price of corn and poor growing seasons in 2015 and 2016, where both total yield and prices received by farmers decreased consecutively. Demand from the Beef Cattle Production industry (IBISWorld report 11211), where hay is used as feedstock, is essential for hay producers. Prices of alternative livestock feeds, such as corn, have decreased over the five years to 2020. This has negatively affected industry revenue and profit as hay has become a more expensive cattle feed. Industry profit, measured as earnings before interest and taxes, is expected to account for 3.7% of revenue in 2020. This industry is also susceptible to significant volatility, as its performance is influenced by commodity prices. Furthermore, economic fallout and supply chain disruptions from COVID-19 (coronavirus) are expected to weaken demand from downstream markets, such as cattle ranchers, and lead to the decline in revenue for 2020. Over the five years to 2025, the industry is expected to achieve revenue growth as the economy recovers and commodity prices stabilize. The price of corn is projected to rise in the outlook period, benefitting industry operators as the demand for hay will likely increase. In addition to changing consumer preferences toward organic meats and dairy, which raises demand for high-value organic hay, China's booming dairy industry, which needs more alfalfa, offers an opportunity to industry farmers to export products. IBISWorld anticipates industry revenue to increase at an annualized rate of 1.5% to $29.6 billion over the five years to 2025. 8 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Industry Performance Key External Drivers Demand from beef cattle production Livestock farmers regularly purchase hay as feed for their herds. Demand for hay usually increases during adverse weather conditions when the area of natural pastures is lower. Demand from beef cattle production is expected to decrease in 2020. Additionally, the nature of demand with respect to consumer preferences and international trade poses a potential threat to the industry. Demand from food manufacturing Downstream food manufacturers purchase most of the products within this industry, including sugar beets, maple syrup, herbs and spices, for use in a range of food products. Higher demand from food manufacturers lead to increased sales for the industry. Demand from food manufacturing is expected to increase in 2020, representing a potential opportunity for the industry. Per capita sugar and sweetener consumption Consumer preferences have shifted away from high-fructose corn syrup to more natural sweeteners. This drives demand for industry products, such as sugar beets, maple syrup and mint, which are used as replacement sweeteners. Per capita sugar and sweetener consumption is expected to slightly decrease in 2020. 9 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Trade-weighted index Despite the perishable nature of certain industry crops, they can still be traded internationally. As a result, the industry is affected by changes in exchange rates. A rise in the trade-weighted index (TWI) makes industry products relatively more expensive, and thus, less attractive to international buyers, therefore increasing imports. The TWI is expected to increase in 2020. Threat of Natural Disaster Weather conditions play an important role in determining crop yields and production levels, given that favorable weather patterns boost crop yields. The opposite occurs when weather conditions are extreme, especially regarding droughts or floods. Conversely, adverse weather conditions reduce grazing pastures can lift demand for corn to be used as livestock feed. Since the occurrence of natural disasters and bad weather is highly unpredictable, the threat of natural disaster is expected to remain stable in 2020. Current Performance Revenue for the Hay and Crop Farming industry has decreased an annualized 2.4% to $27.5 billion over the five years to 2020, including a decline of 11.1% in 2020 alone. Most of the industry is dedicated to the growing of hay, which producers either sell to cattle ranchers that use hay as feed, or keep the hay and use it for their own 10 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 cattle. Other products, such as sugar beets, herbs and spices, are used to flavor food. Declining revenue has been attributed to weakening demand for hay from downstream livestock manufacturing markets. During the period, the price of corn, an alternative cattle feed, fell, which made hay a less attractive product. A doubledigit decline in 2020 is projected as a result of the economic fallout from COVID-19 (coronavirus) and the supply chain disruptions to downstream markets. However, natural spices and sweeteners have grown in popularity and demand from abroad has risen, offering new opportunities for the industry. Hay fluctuates Hay is used as a substitute feed when primary feeds, such as corn, become relatively more expensive. The price of corn dropped 9.9% in 2015 and continued declining to $3.40 per bushel in 2017, leading cattle ranchers to switch to a less expensive feed substitute. Preceding this decline in price, hay farmers historically benefited from increased demand for industry products from cattle ranchers, in turn driving revenue growth. Corn is a major input in the production of ethanol and other biofuels, which the US Environmental Protection Agency has increasingly required energy providers to use in their products. However, early during the current period, energy markets began to decline, which decreased demand for biofuel, and subsequently, corn. With corn becoming less expensive, livestock providers switched back to corn as their primary form of feed. Furthermore, in 2020 the price of corn is expected to fall 10.5%, weakening industry demand further. Slow industry revenue growth has caused unprofitable farmers to either exit the industry or switch their focus to different crops. The number of industry enterprises has increased marginally at an annualized rate less than 0.3% to 465,837 over the five years to 2020. Labor for the industry has grown in value due to the adoption of new technologies that require a knowledgeable and skilled workforce. As a result, wages have increased at an annualized rate of 0.4% to $3.0 billion over the five years to 2020. Adding value to products is limited in hay farming. Some farmers, however, are taking advantage of organic hay farming for use in organic meat and dairy production. Organic farming across all industries has experienced an increase in popularity as consumers become more health-conscious. Organic hay, as the first step in organic meat and dairy production, has experienced considerable growth. While organic hay farming represents less than 1.5% of total hay acreage, according to the US Department of Agriculture, the growth of this previously niche product segment indicates profitability. New flavors The industry is also composed of a variety of other crops, such as spices and sweeteners that are typically used in food preparation to add additional flavor. Natural spices and sweeteners have recently grown in popularity as consumer preferences have shifted away from artificial flavoring to natural alternatives. Recent health studies have proven that there are negative health consequences associated with the consumption of high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS), which is commonly found in soda, cereals and other types of processed food and drinks. In 11 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 place of HFCS, consumers have increasingly preferred natural sweeteners and flavoring in the foods. Industry products, such as sugar beets, mint and maple syrup, have subsequently benefited from this shift. Refined sugar is perceived to be a healthier sweetener than HFCS. As a result, soda and snack manufacturers have increasingly demanded refined sugar to flavor their products. Sugar beets, which account for a significant share of sugar produced in the United States, have experienced heightened demand as a result. Over the past five years, the price of sugar has been highly volatile, with high spikes and dramatic drops in prices. During these sugar price jumps, demand for sugar beets has increased since refined sugar manufacturers substitute sugar beets for sugarcane in refined sugar production. This has supported industry profit growth, measured as earnings before interest and taxes, to account for 3.7% of revenue in 2020. International demand rises Industry imports have declined in recent years due to several factors. In the hay product segment, downstream beef cattle farmers tend to use hay produced by neighboring farms or even their own farms, which has limited the need for additional imported hay. In the sugar beet profit segment, tariff-rate quotas keep the industry shielded from global sugar supplies and prices. Additionally, trade of sugar beets is largely limited due to its highly perishable nature. The value of industry imports has decreased at an annualized rate of 2.3% to $1.0 billion over the five years to 2020. Consequently, imports' share of domestic demand has remained steady at 4.0% of demand in 2020. Conversely, exports account for a growing share of revenue, with growth driven mainly by hay exports. However, such growth has been somewhat tempered by a strong US dollar over the past five years, which has made domestic crops less attractive on the international market. The strength of the US dollar relative to an international basket of currencies, measured by the trade-weighted index, has risen over the five years to 2020. As a result, the value of industry exports has fallen an annualized 1.2% to $2.4 billion during the same period. Additionally, exports are expected to account for 8.8% of revenue in 2020. Notably, Canada has increased its demand for industry products over the past five years. Historical Performance Data Revenue IVA Employment Exports Imports Wages ($m) ($m) (Units) (Units) (Units) ($m) ($m) 2011 32,493 6,562 2012 33,033 6,565 485,701 485,524 519,103 2,179 482,264 482,091 516,444 2,453 2013 33,156 2014 32,408 6,123 474,031 473,853 508,703 2,845 6,432 465,972 465,794 501,801 2,514 2015 31,109 5,589 458,136 457,953 494,541 2016 30,932 5,406 450,399 450,193 2017 30,162 5,823 442,935 2018 31,308 6,343 486,467 2019 30,983 5,913 480,919 Year 12 Estab. Enterprises ($m) Domestic Demand ($m) Price of corn ($ per bushel) 951 2,565 31,265 236 1,140 2,667 31,720 255 1,166 2,741 31,477 259 1,207 2,867 31,100 244 2,582 1,174 2,976 29,701 211 487,350 2,830 1,192 3,086 29,294 203 442,749 479,898 2,738 1,108 3,169 28,533 197 486,272 524,341 2,661 1,165 3,337 29,812 200 480,680 519,041 2,779 1,157 3,303 29,361 192 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 Year 2020 13 Revenue IVA ($m) ($m) (Units) 27,542 5,302 465,899 August 2020 Estab. Enterprises Employment Exports Imports Wages ($m) Domestic Demand ($m) Price of corn ($ per bushel) (Units) (Units) ($m) ($m) 465,837 480,306 2,436 1,044 3,033 26,151 188 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Industry Outlook Outlook Revenue for the Hay and Crop Farming industry is expected to grow in the outlook period, increasing an annualized 1.5% to $29.6 billion over the five years to 2025. Projected growth in demand for price-premium organic hay from the Beef Cattle Production industry (IBISWorld report 11211) is an opportunity for the industry, in addition to rising sugar prices. However, falling participation and employment pose a potential threat to the industry. Organic farming's heyday The industry's hay segment, which is primarily used to feed cattle raised for meat and dairy, is expected to grow slightly over the five years to 2025 as demand declines from the Beef Cattle Production industry continue to reverse. Per capita beef consumption, an indicator of demand for the Beef Cattle Production industry, and therefore, effecting the Hay and Crop Farming industry, is anticipated to decrease over the next five years. Consumers have become increasingly healthconscious in recent years, especially regarding the food they eat. Recent studies have revealed positive health consequences associated with eating organic products, and as a result, consumers have shifted toward purchasing this highquality meat. Therefore, the Beef Cattle Production industry has started producing organic meats and dairy to meet consumer preferences. This, in turn, has increased demand for high-value organic hay. Downstream farmers can only produce organic beef by feeding the cattle a diet of organic feeds. To meet changing consumer preferences for healthier foods, including organic beef, farmers will likely need to change their beef production methods to include purchasing organic hay. However, organic farming is expensive, but is expected to maintain industry profit. Profit, measured as earnings before interest and taxes, is expected to account for 3.8% of revenue in 2025. Hay farmers are also likely to benefit from vertical integration. Unlike sugar beet production, in which farmers have formed strong cooperatives that control most of sugar refineries in the United States, hay producers are limited in their integration. Hay farmers are likely to achieve greater financial success if they take on processing and distribution activities in addition to production. Vertical integration 14 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 typically minimizes dependency on intermediaries and wholesalers, which could bolster industry profit for operators. Sugar beets find the sweet spot Demand for sugar beets is expected to increase as the world price of sugar increases over the five years to 2025. Although refined sugar, which is created from sugar beets, is perceived as a healthier sweetener than high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS), when the price of sugar rises, soda and snack manufacturers are expected to opt to use less-expensive sweeteners as a product input. Meanwhile, imports are expected to pose a threat to this segment. Although tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) protect US sugar production, Mexico is free to import sugar without duties under current trade agreements. TRQs limit US consumers' access to most low-priced import alternatives, which will likely enable Mexican sugar imports to dictate the domestic price. Therefore, while the world price of sugar is expected to increase over the next five years, the price of sugar is expected to increase at a slower rate during the same period. However, as prices in the world market are still well below that of the domestic market, US operators are still expected to be susceptible to import penetration and limited export opportunities, further tempering segment growth for producers of sugar beets. The newly instated US-Mexico-Canada-Agreement (USMCA) will likely minimally influence trade in this industry further. Currently, the agreement opens limited access to Canadian sugar producers into the US market. The value of industry imports is expected to increase marginally at an annualized rate of 0.8% to $1.1 billion over the five years to 2025, and is not expected to drastically offset domestic production. Imports' share of domestic demand is expected to remain constant, satisfying 3.9% of demand in 2025. However, the value of exports is expected to continue to rise at an annualized rate of 2.0% to $2.7 billion over the five years to 2025 and will likely bolster the industry to offset the effect of unfavorable import trends on industry revenue. Over the five years to 2025, farmers will likely continue to diversify their crops to avoid potential losses incurred from any single crops. For this reason, the number of industry establishments is expected to decline at an annualized rate less than 0.1% to 465,119 locations over the five years to 2025, largely reflecting slow industry revenue growth. Additionally, advancements in technology will likely increase crop yields, which is output measured in tons produced per acre, and will likely enable smaller tracts of land to produce more hay and other industry crops. In the meantime, industry employment is expected to grow modestly at an annualized rate of 0.6% to 495,841 workers over the five years to 2025. Performance Outlook Data Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 15 Revenue IVA Estab. Enterprises ($m) ($m) (Units) 27,542 27,978 28,396 28,954 29,293 29,605 5,302 5,405 5,517 5,632 5,683 5,710 465,899 464,723 463,973 464,696 464,677 465,119 Employment Exports Imports Wages (Units) (Units) ($m) ($m) ($m) Domestic Demand ($m) 465,837 464,082 462,802 462,939 462,524 462,624 480,306 482,958 485,735 490,480 493,116 495,841 2,436 2,498 2,549 2,610 2,651 2,691 1,044 1,050 1,059 1,074 1,082 1,088 3,033 3,056 3,079 3,115 3,136 3,156 26,151 26,529 26,906 27,419 27,724 28,002 Price of corn ($ per bushel) 188 187 189 190 192 194 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 Industry Life Cycle The life cycle stage of this industry is August 2020 Mature LIFE CYCLE REASONS IVA is growing at a slower rate than US GDP Hay is well-established in the livestock feed market New product introduction is limited The Hay and Other Crop Farming industry is in a mature phase of its life cycle. This is illustrated by the market saturation and limited introduction of new products. Industry value added (IVA), which represents an industry's contribution to the overall economy, is expected to increase at an annualized rate of 0.2% over the 10 years to 2025. Meanwhile, US GDP is forecast to grow an annualized 1.9% during the same period. The divergence between these two growth rates demonstrates that the industry's contribution to the US economy is relatively shrinking. Common trends across all segments of the industry include the lack of new markets and the decrease in total acreage harvested for the industry's crops. Diverse, nonindustry-relevant crops are more profitable to farmers due to economies of scope and the ability to rotate crops seasonally. Meanwhile, the livestock feed market continues to be the primary source of demand for locally grown hay. Although organic farming has emerged as a new source of demand, the development of new uses has been very limited within the hay segment. Hay has the potential to be used in biofuel production, while some excess sugar beet products, such as pulp, are expected to be used as a feedstock for ethanol production. Furthermore, future industry growth will likely be constrained by 16 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 producers' limited ability to introduce new products into the marketplace. Product differentiation is largely restricted to improving quality. This requires producers to change the characteristics of crops through new, genetically modified seed strains. 17 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Products and Markets Supply Chain KEY BUYING INDUSTRIES KEY SELLING INDUSTRIES 1st Tier 1st Tier Beef Cattle Production in the US Water Supply & Irrigation Systems in the US Dairy Farms in the US Hog & Pig Farming in the US Sheep Farming in the US 2nd Tier Breweries in the US Horse & Other Equine Production in the US Farm Product Storage & Warehousing in the US Crop Services in the US Farm, Lawn & Garden Equipment Wholesaling in the US Farm Supplies Wholesaling in the US 2nd Tier Tractors & Agricultural Machinery Manufacturing in the US Coal & Natural Gas Power in the US Fertilizer Manufacturing in the US Products and Services Hay The single largest product category in the Hay and Crop Farming industry is hay, which accounts for an estimated 26.5% of revenue in 2020. Hays are typically classified as grass hays, legume hays, cereal grain hays, in addition to mixed hays. However, industry products are subdivided into alfalfa hay 18 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 and other hay, which includes popular North American variants, such as Timothy, Blue, Oat and Sudan hays. Alfalfa hay has a higher protein content than other hay and is typically harvested between May and October. Although protein content varies dependent on location, growing conditions and the genetic makeup of seeds, early cut alfalfa generally contains between 16.0% and 20.0% protein and late cut alfalfa is composed of 12.0% and 15.0% protein. Although it is the most popularly produced hay product, alfalfa hay requires more water and fertilizer to grow and is generally more susceptible to insect damage. The price for alfalfa hay is higher than the price for any other hay, making it a larger share of this segment's share of revenue. Sugar beets Sugar beets generate an estimated 4.4% of industry revenue in 2020. This industry segment has been subject to fluctuations, representing changes in production and prices as dictated by yields and world sugar prices. At the beginning of the five years to 2020, low levels of production in Brazil caused the price of sugar across the world to surge. This price volatility has trickled down to sugar beets as well, with prices normalizing following Brazil's return to nominal sugar output. As a result, this segment's share of revenue has increased over the past five years. Other crops Together, the various other crops produced by the industry comprise the remaining portion of industry revenue Included in this segment are other staples such as hops, representing 1.8% of industry revenue, and mint and maple products, which represent 0.5% and 0.4% of industry revenue, respectively, in 2020. Other crops in this segment include guar and a variety of herbs and spices. Revenue growth of these crops has remained in line with overall industry revenue growth, displaying increasing prices and production dependent on weather and yield. All other crops account for 66.4% of revenue in 2020. Demand Determinants Products included within the Hay and Crop Farming industry can be broadly segmented into animal feed and food products. The major factors determining demand include livestock production, price, food processors and exchange rates. Livestock production Demand for hay and other crops that are used as animal feed is directly derived from the amount of US livestock, such as cattle and hogs, which are the biggest consumers of hay. 19 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 An increase in intensive livestock production can translate into greater demand for hay to be used as animal feed. In 2020, due to COVID-19 (coronavirus), disruptions in the supply chain for livestock farmers, despite a heightened demand for products, led to a surplus of livestock and declining profit margins. This also made livestock farmers more price conscious and more likely to substitute to less expensive feeds. An increase in the price of hay may cause price sensitive animal feed processors to switch production to alternative grain feed sources, thus constraining demand. However, an increase of livestock producers reliant on organic feed, such as organic hays, limits the amount of substitute products, thus creating more inelastic demand resilient to price increases. Weather conditions can also play a critical role in demand for hay for livestock feed. Adverse weather conditions, such as droughts or floods, have strong effect on demand, as they reduce the quality and quantity of natural grass pastures and grain harvests. Price Demand is also influenced by price ratios between hay and alternative feeds. Changes in the price of feeds are a function of available stocks and harvest expectations. A relative rise in the price of hay stems demand and persuades farmers to switch to other feeds such as corn. At the same time, the increased use of corn and soybeans in biofuel production has increased their prices well above historical averages, leading livestock farmers to largely demand alternative feeds, such as hay and sugar beet pulp. Food processors In recent years, food consumption trends have shifted as consumers have increasingly demanded less high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) in their products compared with previous years due to the negative health ramifications associated with HFCS. This has led food processors to demand more organic spices and sweeteners, such as those produced by this industry. For example, sugar beets, which are used in refined sugar production, have experienced increased demand over the five years to 2020 since refined sugar is perceived to be slightly healthier than HFCS. Exchange rates The value of the US dollar dictates the price competitiveness of US crop products. Exports of US crops decrease when the US dollar depreciates, which subsequently drives up prices, leading overseas buyers to favor crops from competing nations. Alternatively, as the dollar appreciates, imports tend to become a more appealing option to domestic consumers of industry products. 20 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Major Markets Due to the diverse nature of crops produced by the Hay and Crop Farming industry, revenue is generated through various segments, such as exports, sales to livestock farmers and sales to manufacturing, wholesale and retail consumers. Exports In 2020, industry exports are expected to generate 8.8% of industry revenue. Due to their proximity to the United States, Canada and Mexico are popular destinations for US-grown hay and sugar beets. Both countries also benefit from trading terms under the newly instated United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Exports' share of revenue is largely driven by alfalfa exports to Japan. For more information, refer to the International Trade section of this report. Livestock farmers As the largest single product offered, hay is used primarily for livestock feed. When feed prices rise, especially the price of corn, livestock farmers seek alternative sources to provide their animals with the proper nutrients to assure their well-being. Over the five years to 2020, corn prices have decreased which has weakened demand for industry products since they are relatively more costly. Due to these factors, livestock farmers account for 25.0% of industry revenue in 2020. Other manufacturing, wholesale and retail consumers The remaining industry products are sold to various consumers across multiple industries for use in every kind of food process. Food manufacturers have recently come to demand industry products, accounting for 21.9% of revenue in 2020. Consumers' shift to demand more natural and organic options has driven food manufacturers to demand more industry products. For example, the shift away from high fructose corn syrup toward more natural sweeteners has benefited the industry as it has driven demand for sugar beets, an industry product. Additionally, the switch in consumer preference has caused wholesalers to scramble in search of the organic and natural products that their downstream markets are demanding, which has led such wholesalers to seek out industry products. Grocery wholesalers are estimated to account for 20.3% of revenue in 2020. Finally, retail consumers have begun to seek out crops sold by this industry to use in making their own foods 21 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 at home. Sales of this variety usually take place at farmers' markets or similar events. Direct to retail consumers are expected to comprise 20.9% of revenue in 2020. All other markets account for 3.1% of revenue in 2020. International Trade Exports in this industry are Medium and Steady Imports in this industry are Low and Decreasing Most products produced by the Hay and Crop Farming industry are sold domestically. Imports satisfy only a minor portion of domestic demand for both hay and sugar beets. The US market for hay is substantial, with livestock farmers accounting for the bulk of demand. Likewise, sugar beets are primarily sold locally because the product is perishable and requires fast processing before it spoils. Furthermore, imports are limited due to high import quotas. Imports The value of industry imports has declined at an annualized rate of 2.3% to $1.1 billion over the five years to 2020. Industry import levels fluctuate based on many factors including domestic feed prices, cattle inventory and weather conditions. After a fruitful crop yield prior to the period due, farmers suffered unfavorable growing conditions in 2015 and 2016. In 2017, variable weather led to challenging conditions for isolated regions, while others profited from above-average yields, according to The Farmer, an agricultural industry publication. Consequently, imports' share of domestic demand is expected to remain steady, satisfying 4.0% of demand in 2020. Due to its proximity to the United States, Canada is the largest provider of hay and other crops, accounting for 30.7% of imports in 2020. However, China has experienced a decline due to trade headwinds and targeted agricultural tariffs. Industry-relevant products imported from China are estimated to account for 7.3% of industry imports in 2020. Exports The value of industry exports has decreased at an annualized rate of 1.2% to $2.4 billion over the five years to 2020. In 2020, exports are anticipated to generate 8.8% of industry revenue. Japan accounts for the largest share of exports, accounting for 21.9% in 2020, with China accounting for 17.9% of exports and South Korea 22 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 accounting for 11.2% of exports. China's dairy industry has historically played a major role as an importer of industry products. However, in light of recent trade headwinds and agricultural focused tariffs, there has been uncertainty surrounding how much demand would stem from China. China's total imports of industry products have increased over the past five years, despite declining 15.4% between 2016 and 2017. China's large population and growth of its dairy herd, which has been historically reliant on US industry exports, previously served as a major export destination. Trade headwinds and uncertainty regarding future relations has, however, tempered the outlook for export growth. Despite frictions present in international trade, exports to other nations, such as Japan, Canada and South Korea, have increased over the past five years, and remain a bright spot for the industry. Demand from these nations is projected to offset any loss in export revenue from China. Additionally, the appreciation of the US dollar over the past five years has caused domestic goods to become relatively more expensive on the international marketplace, but this has not had a significant effect on industry exports. Most industry products are consumed domestically for immediate livestock feed or food processing. Sugar beets are especially difficult to transport because they must be processed quickly after picking to avoid spoilage. 23 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Business Locations Business Concentration in the United States WA MT ME ND OR VT MN ID WI SD NY WY MI NV PA IA NE IL UT CO KS CA NH MA CT RI NJ MD DC DE OH IN WV MO VA KY NC AZ TN OK NM SC AR MS GA AL LA TX FL AK HI Percentage of Harvested acres (%) 0 3 6 9 Hay & Crop Farming in the US Source: IBISWorld The geographic spread in the Hay and Crop Farming industry differs based on each crop. However, within each product segment, the geographic distribution is stable from year to year because farms require specific soil and weather conditions to grow the crops, and therefore, cannot easily relocate. Hay farming, for instance, is generally concentrated in areas that have plentiful supplies of sunshine and rain. Often, hay is grown in conjunction with corn, wheat and oats as part of a crop rotation system. Furthermore, farmers may grow hay in lieu of other crops when adverse weather patterns reduce the quality of grain crops. Other factors influencing geographic spread include proximity to irrigation water, soil nutrition and flat terrain. Plains According to the US Department of Agriculture, the Plains region accounts for the largest share of industry establishments, with 30.6% of harvested acreage and 23.2% of industry-relevant crop production volume in 2020. More specifically, the region is the top producer of alfalfa hay and sugar beets, both in terms of harvested acres and production volume. Sugar beet production is largely concentrated in the 24 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Red River Valley area of North Dakota, Nebraska and Minnesota. Together, these states account for more than half of US sugar beet production. Southeast and Southwest The Southeast region is the second-largest hub of industry establishments, accounting for 19.3% of harvested acreage and 11.1% of the total production in 2020. In fact, this region is the largest producer of other hay crops, producing onethird of the national output. The Southwest region follows closely behind with 16.3% of harvested acreage and 10.3% of total production in 2020. Other regions Hops farming mainly takes place in Washington (79.4% of total US hops production), with smaller-scale production also concentrated in Oregon (16.0%) and Idaho (7.0%). Production of hops requires specific conditions, including volcanic soil, moderate temperatures and abundant irrigation, which limit the geographic spread of their production. Maple syrup production mainly occurs in New England, primarily in Vermont (37.5% of production) and Maine (13.6%). Specific weather conditions, namely freezing nights and warm days, are needed to stimulate maple sap flows. 25 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Competitive Landscape Market Share Concentration Concentration in this industry is Low The Hay and Crop Farming industry is characterized by a low level of ownership concentration compared with other sectors of the US economy. The industry is dominated by small- and medium-sized farms, with average farm revenue accounting for less than 0.1% of industry sales. In many cases, farmers grow hay and other crops and enter and exit the industry in response to changing returns. These conditions have been responsible for the dispersed nature of hay production. In the long term, however, pressure to reduce costs and increase efficiency is slowly causing the industry to shift toward larger-scale centralized production. Conversely, in the sugar beet segment, a large share of output is sold through cooperatives, with almost half of all sugar beet farms belong to processing co-ops. In the Red River Valley region of North Dakota, Nebraska and Minnesota, more than 90.0% of farms are shareholders in the American Crystal Sugar Company (American Crystal), which is the largest US sugar beet producer. American Crystal operates sugar factories in Minnesota, North Dakota and Montana. In terms of employment distribution, the industry is characterized by many operators that employ small workforces. In 2020, each farm employs an estimated one worker, indicating that farming families only supplement their own labor with hired labor during busy periods. 26 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 Key Success Factors August 2020 IBISWorld identifies 250 Key Success Factors for a business. The most important for this industry are: Appropriate physical growing conditions: Crop farming requires fertile soils. The presence of fertile soils and other appropriate growing conditions plays a critical role in shaping the success of farms, since it influences harvest levels and crop quality. Economies of scale: Economies of scale in production generate cost savings for crop growers. Specifically, economies of scale result in lower per unit growing costs that ultimately result in higher net returns. Ability to take advantage of government subsidies and other grants: Farmers in the industry are eligible for support from the government that can form an important part of their income. The ability to access these payments has a substantial effect on profit. Production of premium goods/services: Farmers that produce premium quality crops can demand higher prices in the market place. Ability to alter goods and services produced in favor of market conditions: The ability to alter the balance between various crops in response to changes in market conditions is important for a farm's viability. Farmers need to be able to change their production mix to maximize farm returns. Establishment of export markets: The ability to secure overseas customers reduces a farmer's reliance on sales and conditions in the domestic market. Cost Structure Benchmarks 27 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Profit Profit for farmers in this industry is highly volatile and depend on many factors, including government subsidies and weather patterns. IBISWorld estimates that profit, measured as earnings before interest and taxes, accounts for 3.7% of revenue in 2020. Cattle farms seek out hay as a feed substitute when corn and soybean prices rise. The price of corn has decreased over the five years to 2020, weakening demand for hay and shrinking profits. Wages Wage costs are low for this industry, accounting for an estimated 11.0% of revenue in 2020. The overall low share of wages is due to the presence of an extremely large number of nonemployers and single-owner farms. Family members have the choice of working elsewhere, which a farmer may take advantage of by using family labor. Labor expenses fluctuate annually depending on the size of the harvest and seasonal conditions, which may hinder total crop yield, and thus, the need for excess labor. Purchases Purchases make up the largest expenditure for industry farmers in 2020, comprising an estimated 44.3% of revenue. This includes expenditures on fertilizer, seeds and chemicals. For hay farming, these costs are generally lower than for other segments because hay requires less pesticide spraying. Depreciation Depreciation costs account for 4.6% of revenue in 2020, reflecting the relatively high level of capital intensity within agriculture. All segments within this industry use advanced technology to improve yields. Maple tapping, for example, involves vacuum pumps, reverse osmosis and various types of evaporators to maximize extraction while ensuring that the trees continue to thrive. 28 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Marketing In 2020, marketing expenditures are expected to account for 0.4% of industry revenue. Marketing expenses are relatively low, as operators typically work directly with businesses and other farmers, so the need for marketing is limited. Rent Rent is a significant expenditure for hay and other crop farmers. Farmers can use their land for other crops that may be more profitable. As a result, IBISWorld accounts for this by incorporating this potential loss into rent costs. Additionally, some farmers rent some of the land that they farm rather than own it all outright. In 2020, rent costs account for an estimated 10.7% of revenue. Utilities Utility costs are relatively high in the industry. This is due to many of the crops sold by industry operators needing large amounts of water to grow properly. For example, the sugar beet requires that 40.0% of the crop is irrigated for proper growth. In the hay segment, only 15.0% of an area planted is irrigated. Utility costs also include fuels and oils used to operate the machinery used to gather industry crops. Utility expenditures account for 13.2% of revenue in 2020. Other Costs Other costs are expected to account for 12.1% of industry revenue in 2020. Other costs include administrative, distribution, legal and other miscellaneous expenses. 29 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 Basis of Competition Competition in this industry is August 2020 High and Steady Internal competition Within the Hay and Crop Farming industry, keeping production costs low is a key competitive factor among growers because the market sets prices. In addition, crops grown by farmers are largely homogenous, with little differentiation between outputs from different hay farms. Therefore, to achieve a competitive advantage, farmers must use the most efficient equipment and techniques that can help lower production costs and increase profit. Obtaining and maintaining supply contracts also helps farmers compete. Many of the products in this industry are used for livestock feed, snack food manufacturing or food wholesaling, which require supply contracts to secure future sales. To keep supply contracts and financial returns, it has become increasingly important for producers to have consistent crop returns. Crops can be differentiated by quality. For example, hay is assessed and graded based on its moisture content, protein levels and texture. Premium graded hay could demand a slightly higher price. However, quality is difficult to control, as it is largely determined by external factors, such as growing conditions. Increasingly, crop quality levels are determined by farmer-controlled factors, such as nutrition and supplement injections. External competition The sources of external competition differ across product segments. Hay farmers compete with other businesses operating in the livestock feed market. Notably, hay and hay mixtures experience heavy competition from coarse grains such as corn and barley. Competition from these other grain farmers is often a function of price levels. Import competition is still relatively limited, but may increase in the future. Sugar beet farmers experience competition from sugar cane growers. When the price of beets increases relative to sugar cane, producers may prefer to use the less 30 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 costly input, although the refining techniques required are different and may limit substitution. Another source of external competition is corn sweeteners, which can be used instead of sugar. Import competition is expected to increase in the downstream sugar industry. Maple syrup growers experience substantial import competition because they only supply 30.0% of the domestic market. Canada, the main supplier of imports, manufactures high-quality maple syrup, which also attracts higher prices. Barriers to Entry Barriers to entry in this industry are Overall, there are few barriers to entry into the Hay and Crop Farming industry. Generally, all inputs are readily available, and producers can typically shift between agricultural activities with ease, with farms often for sale. Nonetheless, two possible barriers include capital investment requirements and problems securing finance for such investment. Low and Steady Barriers to entry checklist Competition High Concentration Low Life Cycle Stage Mature Technology Change Medium Regulation & Policy Light Industry Assistance Medium The establishment of crop farming operations requires some investment. New participants need to purchase land, machinery, such as harvesters and tractors, and irrigation equipment for sugar beet crops. For existing field producers, establishment costs are significantly lower. Farmers can simply alter their product mix in response to changing market conditions. In most cases, existing farms already have the skilled labor, land, machinery, fencing and buildings necessary to begin operating in this industry. Similar to many agricultural industries, the profitability of crop farming is volatile. It depends on a range of exogenous factors that are beyond the control of farmers. These include supply and demand forces in downstream industries and weather conditions. Given this, traditional financing companies and banking institutions may be reluctant to approve loans for establishment costs. Industry Globalization 31 Globalization in this industry Medium and Steady The level of globalization within the Hay and Crop Farming industry is moderate. Although large-scale corporate farming has increased, most farms are still familyowned and operated, leaving little opportunity for foreign ownership. IBISWorld does not expect the level of globalization to change drastically over the five years to 2025. Globalization is most apparent in international trade, which has expanded over the five years to 2020, although it still plays a minor role in the industry overall. For further detail on imports and exports, refer to the International Trade section of this report. IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 32 August 2020 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Major Companies Major Players THERE ARE NO MAJOR PLAYERS IN THIS INDUSTRY Other Players Public information is limited regarding specific establishments that operate in the Hay and Crop Farming industry. In addition, the industry's diversity makes it difficult to identify common trends in farm structure. The US agricultural sector is generally characterized by the presence of many small- and medium-sized farms. In most instances, farms are managed and owned by families that have been operating in the industry for several generations. Few farms contribute more than 0.5% to industry revenue in 2020. Typical of most agricultural establishments, farms in the industry frequently diversify into cereal farming or livestock activities. Farms that produce wheat and soybeans also grow sugar beets. Hay farmers also raise livestock, such as cattle, sheep or hogs. Such diversification is one method farmers adopted to reduce the risks associated with volatile prices and changing weather patterns. AMERICAN CRYSTAL SUGAR COMPANY Headquartered in Moorhead, MN, American Crystal Sugar Company (American Crystal) is an agricultural cooperative corporation that is engaged in growing sugar beets. The company is owned by over 2,700 growers in the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota and is the largest sugar beet producer in the United States. American Crystal is a vertically integrated cooperative and operates its own sugar-refining factories in Minnesota, North Dakota and Montana under Sidney Sugars Incorporated, US Sugar Corporation, Midwest Agri-Commodities Company and ProGold LLC. The company also has invested in and built relationships with marketing entities, and has recently begun a program investing in technology aimed at protecting workers, increasing storage and productive capacity of its farms and refining facilities and expanding profit into the future. IBISWorld estimates that American Crystal will generate $509.3 million in industryrelevant revenue in 2020. Despite price volatility in 2015 and 2017, American Crystal experienced significant revenue growth in 2016. However, revenue growth is anticipated to slow in the latter half of the five years to 2020 and be further dragged down by the effects of COVID-19 (coronavirus) in 2020. 33 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Operating Conditions 34 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 Capital Intensity August 2020 The level of capital intensity is High Capital intensity is high within the Hay and Crop Farming industry due to the significant capital investment required to farm hay and other crops. Labor costs are relatively low within the industry due to many industry operations being entirely run by the farm owner's family. Also, most of the farming activities, such as plowing, sowing and harvesting, are now mechanized, enabling farmers to use less labor and increase crop quality. However, equipment, such as tractors and bales, is expensive, and technological advancements have increased the costs of these items. These factors create a highly capital-intensive industry. In 2020, industry operators are expected to spend $0.42 on capital investments for every $1.00 spent on labor. Technology And Systems Potential Disruptive Innovation: Factors Driving Threat of Change Level Factor High 35 Ease of Entry High Rate of Entry Low Rate of Innovation Disruption Description Likely A qualitative measure of barriers to entry. Fewer barriers to entry increases the likelihood that new entrants can disrupt incumbents by putting new technologies to use. Likely Annualized growth in the number of enterprises in the industry, ranked against all other industries. A greater intensity of companies entering an industry increases the pool of potential disruptors. Unlikely A ranked measure for the number of patents assigned to an industry. A faster rate of new patent additions to the industry increases the likelihood of a disruptive innovation occurring. Low Innovation Concentration Unlikely A measure for the mix of patent classes assigned to the industry. A greater concentration of patents in one area increases the likelihood of technological disruption of incumbent operators. Very Low Market Concentration Very Unlikely A ranked measure of the largest core market for the industry. Concentrated core markets present a low-end market or new IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 Level August 2020 Factor Disruption Description market entry point for disruptive technologies to capture market share. The industry is experiencing a low level of both the rate of new patents and the concentration of patents in the industry. This creates an environment where the threat of new technologies driving disruption is low. This technology trend is underscored by structural factors that support new entrants. An accommodative structure can create a situation where small entrants can focus on less profitable albeit innovative industry entry points. Or, large operators in other industries can leverage expertise in other areas to enter the industry from a new angle. Major market segments for industry operators are relatively diversified. The spread of market segments suggests that there are limited entry points other than those already served my incumbent operators. The Hay and Crop Farming industry does not experience a high degree of technological disruption. Overall, the industry is well established, and structurally, there is little to disrupt. This industry primarily produces and sells hay and other crops to businesses and to some extent, to households directly. Currently, industry products are a necessity, and there is not a significant portion of the population that is not being served by industry operators. Therefore, it is challenging to disrupt this industry since demand is captured and most technological innovations, such as genetically modified disease and weather resistant seeds, direct-to-consumer ordering and crop mapping technology can all be leveraged by industry operators as an operational efficiency. Overall, this industry exhibits a low susceptibility to technology disruption since products are a necessity and there is little to none underserved populations. The level of technology change is Medium The basic principles of the Hay and Crop Farming industry have not changed in centuries. Tilling, planting and harvesting remain the cornerstone activities of the industry. However, the introduction of new technology and improved plant knowledge has altered the way in which these activities are undertaken. Hay technologies In hay production, the introduction of mechanical harvesters in the first half of the 20th century signaled a major development. Innovations in the areas of irrigation, crop rotation and pesticides have also made important contributions to the industry's technology base. These developments 36 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 have dramatically reduced labor requirements in hay farming. In addition, the industry has developed a range of equipment and processes to assist in planting and harvesting decisions. For example, moisture testing has been an important development that has helped farmers better determine the ideal time to bale their hay. The adoption of tarp covers has also helped reduce the risk of weather damage to hay bales. Covers help farmers store bales outside for longer periods without spoilage. The introduction of hay conditioners has helped farmers increase hay crimping so that dry-down occurs at a faster rate. Furthermore, advances in hay baling machinery mean that hay bales can be packed tighter and heavier, making them easier to pack and store. With the growing use of genetically modified crops, a new strain of hay called HarvXtra alfalfa has been designed to withstand poor weather conditions and make farmer's cows more profitable by increasing the forage usage of the livestock. HarvXtra reduces the amount of lignin in the plant, which can limit the animal's ability to digest the hay. Sugar beet technologies The harvest of the sugar beet crop is almost entirely mechanized. A 2016 survey conducted by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) found that nearly 40.0% of growers use precision agriculture technologies. The most common technologies used are global positioning systems (GPS) and remote sensing, used to adjust fertilizer and irrigation levels to soil and landscape conditions. Red River Valley sugar beet farmers reported the highest use of precision technologies, while the Plains and Northwest regions had the lowest use rates. Furthermore, improvements in the processing techniques and advancements in sugar beet seed varieties have brought about an increase in the yield of beet sugar per ton of beets. More recently, scientists from the USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) have developed a method for creating biodegradable plastic from sugar beet pulp, which is the leftover product from sugar production. Specifically, ARS scientists combined sugar beet pulp with biodegradable polylactic acid, thus making a plastic that becomes soft when heated. This new type of plastic can be used in the manufacture of a variety of containers, creating a new source of demand for industry products. 37 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 Revenue Volatility The level of volatility is August 2020 Medium Note: Revenue growth and decline reflective of 5-year annualized trend. Y-axis is in logarithmic scale. Y-axis crosses at long-run GDP. X-axis crosses at high volatility threshold. Over the five years to 2020, the Hay and Crop Farming industry's revenue volatility has been moderate with specific crops out performing others. Industry volatility is a function of world prices, global demand, weather conditions, exchange rates and the level of profitability in alternative agriculture. However, the extent of influence by these factors varies across segments. For example, sugar beet producers are less affected by global supply and demand conditions for sugar due to government intervention in the domestic sugar market; refer to the Industry Assistance section for further detail. Exchange rates largely influence the price-competitiveness of US exports in the international market. However, since the industry is not heavily engaged in international trade, exchange rate fluctuations have a limited effect on revenue. Meanwhile, harvest volumes across all product segments are sensitive to seasonal weather conditions. For instance, yield per acre can be shaped by growing conditions. Yield has trended upward over time for most product segments as technological advances have tempered weather's effects on crops. Changes in demand for hay and other animal feed products result from livestock population growth, as well as global production levels of substitute feed crops. This was particularly volatile in 2020 as demand for beef grew but the supply chain was disrupted, leading to a surplus of cattle for livestock farmers. Demand for sugar beets and other food crops changes in response to price fluctuations and shifts in diets and consumer preferences. Furthermore, favorable conditions in other agricultural pursuits, such as wheat cropping, can encourage farmers to shift resources away from hay or sugar beet production. 38 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 Regulation & Policy The level of regulation is August 2020 Light and is Steady Generally, the Hay and Crop Farming industry is regulated at the county, state and federal levels. At the county level, farms must comply with zoning bylaws and use land that has been approved for field crops. Most states operate agricultural departments that act as regulatory agencies. These authorities monitor pollution levels associated with farming. At the national level, the two most influential regulatory agencies are the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The extent to which the industry is regulated can vary between geographic regions. EPA The industry uses farm chemicals, which has given rise to concerns about the environmental effects of crop growing. Industry growers are subject to conditions relating to the use of fertilizers and pesticides in production by the EPA. The EPA was given authority through the Food Quality Protection Act. The agency's responsibilities include ensuring that pesticide residues in food crops, such as sugar beets, stay within safety standards, and serving as a watchdog for pollution control and usage of natural resources. The effect of these regulations varies across the industry. For example, hay usually requires fewer chemicals than many other field crops, therefore, hay farmers are less affected by regulation compared with sugar beet growers. USDA The USDA controls the planting of genetically modified (GM) crops and requires all growers of GM crops to obtain a permit before planting. According the USDA, almost 95.0% of planted sugar beets are genetically modified, making government regulation that much more prominent. In addition, industry operators cannot publicly claim that they produce organic crops without approval from the USDA. To this end, producers must comply with standards established by the USDA. The USDA releases national standards for organic production and processing of agricultural crops and livestock. The uniform standards are designed to meet demands of local and international customers seeking assurance that crops have been organically grown. These standards include a demonstration by producers that they are protecting natural resources, conserving biodiversity, and using only approved crop, livestock and processing inputs. Furthermore, GM crops, ionizing radiation, sewage sludge and most artificial pesticides and fertilizers are prohibited from qualifying as organic production. The sugar beet segment of this industry is regulated at the processor level. However, these regulations affect sugar beet farmers. The aim of sugar regulation is to control oversupply, which would depress prices and result in poor returns to the producer. To control supply and maintain a high domestic price, the USDA 39 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 implements marketing allotments, which are allocated to individual states and producers based on historical production. Producers can only sell sugar to the market in accordance with their allotment; refer to the Industry Assistance section for more information. Industry Assistance The level of industry assistance is Medium and is Steady US Sugar Program Sugar beet growers can receive marketing assistance loans, which provide short-term liquidity and guarantee farmers a minimum revenue for production. However, most of the assistance to sugar beet farmers is administered indirectly, through payments to sugar processors as part of the US Sugar Program. This is because beets are perishable and must be processed into sugar before being traded or stored. Processors participating in the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) sugar loan program must agree to provide payments to beet farmers, and the USDA has the authority to establish minimum payment amounts. The 2008 Farm Bill made many changes to sugar policy, including an increase in the sugar loan rate, a move to a domestic sales allowance for domestic producers and the introduction of a limited sucrose ethanol program to support sugar producers with excess supply of imports. However, the bill expired in September 2012, threatening the Hay and Crop Farming industry. The government's tight budget made farmers' subsidies uncertain in the next five years. Nevertheless, after some consideration over how to move forward with the US Sugar Program, lawmakers eventually agreed to preserve sugar beet price guarantees. Under the 2014 Farm Bill sugar beet processors received a loan of 24.1 cents per pound for refined sugar in 2014. If the loan is not repaid, the USDA must accept the sugar pledged as collateral as payment of the loan at maturity. Forfeit is withheld from the market, supporting the price of sugar. The loan program was initially designed so that there is no cost to the government for running the program. To achieve this, the market price of sugar must exceed the loan rate so that there is no incentive for producers to forfeit the loan. To maintain a high enough market price, the USDA sets marketing allotments (rights to sell sugar) such that the total marketing allotment is equal to sugar demand less import obligations under the World Trade Organization. The allotment quantity may not be less than 85.0% of sugar deliveries for human consumption. Therefore, an increase in sugar imports is associated with the sugar policy being operated at a significant cost to the government. Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) In addition, farmers benefit from the TRQ system imposed on sugar beet imports. 40 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 By supporting the domestic sugar processing industries, quotas imposed on sugar imports ensure continuous demand for sugar beets. Presently, there is a TRQ on sugar (a two-stage tariff, where imports up to the quota level enter at a rate of 0.625 cents per pound and imports more than this quota enter at 15.36 cents per pound of raw sugar and 16.21 cents per pound of refined sugar). Furthermore, sugar beets are subject to the Sugar Re-Exports Programs, which include the Refined Sugar Re-Exports Program and the Sugar-Containing Products Re-Export Program. Under the former, US sugar refiners can import raw, worldpriced sugar but must export refined sugar for sale to licensed manufacturers. The latter program enables participants to import refined world-price sugar to use in products that will be exported. Together, these re-export programs are the chief source of US sugar exports. It is important to note that imports under this program are not subject to the TRQs described above. No tariffs are applicable to imports of hay into the United States, and there are limited specific assistance programs targeting hay farmers. However, the US government does offer a wide range of nontariff assistance to the farming community for which hay producers can apply. Most assistance falls under the Farm Act and include export promotion schemes, conservation programs and emergency relief. Most recently, the passage of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) poses minimal changes that directly effect this industry. However, the USMCA grants a limited amount of US sugar market access to Canada, making it more competitive for domestic industry operators. Indirect assistance Currently, farmers can access direct assistance through the federal government's Environmental Quality Incentives Program. Under the program, farmers can obtain access to funding, advice and education services for addressing resource issues. The program is designed to help farmers use their land in the most environmentally friendly and cost-effective manner. Additionally, in response to the economic fallout from COVID-19 (coronavirus) in 2020, the Farm Service Agency, Natural Resources Conservation Service, and Risk Management Agency have established flexibility policies to aid US farmers. These are additional measures to the greater CARES Act and the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program which was passed in April 2020 and provides $16.0 billion in financial support related to the pandemic. Crop insurance flexibilities, farm loan flexibilities and commodity loan flexibilities are expected to further aid farmers during the economic slowdown and uncertainty. The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is another assistance program relevant to the industry that passed in response to the pandemic and provides forgivable business loans. Industry associations Farmers have formed associations that lobby the government on their behalf within each of the industry's segments. 41 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 In the hay segment, membership organizations include bodies such as the Idaho Hay Association. The Red River Valley Sugar Beet Growers Association was formally incorporated in 1954 and represents nearly 2,500 sugar beet growers who are shareholder owners of the American Crystal Sugar Company, the largest beet sugar producer in the United States. These associations use funds raised from membership fees to represent the interests of growers, shippers and processors. 42 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Key Statistics Industry Data Year Revenue IVA ($m) ($m) (Units) 32,493 33,033 33,156 32,408 31,109 30,932 30,162 31,308 30,983 27,542 27,978 28,396 28,954 29,293 29,605 6,562 6,565 6,123 6,432 5,589 5,406 5,823 6,343 5,913 5,302 5,405 5,517 5,632 5,683 5,710 485,701 482,264 474,031 465,972 458,136 450,399 442,935 486,467 480,919 465,899 464,723 463,973 464,696 464,677 465,119 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Annual Change Year Revenue IVA 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (%) 6.45 1.66 0.37 -2.26 -4.01 -0.58 -2.49 3.79 -1.04 -11.1 1.58 1.49 1.96 1.17 1.06 (%) 14.7 0.05 -6.74 5.04 -13.1 -3.28 7.71 8.92 -6.78 -10.4 1.95 2.07 2.08 0.90 0.47 Key Ratios 43 Estab. Enterprises Employment Exports Imports Wages (Units) (Units) ($m) ($m) ($m) Domestic Demand ($m) 485,524 482,091 473,853 465,794 457,953 450,193 442,749 486,272 480,680 465,837 464,082 462,802 462,939 462,524 462,624 519,103 516,444 508,703 501,801 494,541 487,350 479,898 524,341 519,041 480,306 482,958 485,735 490,480 493,116 495,841 2,179 2,453 2,845 2,514 2,582 2,830 2,738 2,661 2,779 2,436 2,498 2,549 2,610 2,651 2,691 951 1,140 1,166 1,207 1,174 1,192 1,108 1,165 1,157 1,044 1,050 1,059 1,074 1,082 1,088 2,565 2,667 2,741 2,867 2,976 3,086 3,169 3,337 3,303 3,033 3,056 3,079 3,115 3,136 3,156 31,265 31,720 31,477 31,100 29,701 29,294 28,533 29,812 29,361 26,151 26,529 26,906 27,419 27,724 28,002 Price of corn ($ per bushel) 236 255 259 244 211 203 197 200 192 188 187 189 190 192 194 Estab. Enterprises Employment Exports Imports Wages (%) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 9 -1 -7 1 1 1 1 1 (%) 13.2 12.6 16.0 -11.6 2.70 9.58 -3.27 -2.80 4.42 -12.4 2.54 2.04 2.38 1.59 1.48 (%) 16.9 19.8 2.34 3.45 -2.72 1.56 -7.05 5.13 -0.75 -9.70 0.48 0.86 1.49 0.68 0.57 (%) 0.71 3.99 2.77 4.60 3.78 3.69 2.67 5.31 -1.02 -8.20 0.75 0.75 1.17 0.66 0.65 Domestic Demand (%) 6.31 1.45 -0.77 -1.20 -4.50 -1.37 -2.60 4.48 -1.51 -10.9 1.45 1.42 1.91 1.11 1.00 Price of corn (%) 15.4 8.26 1.37 -5.72 -13.4 -4.03 -3.01 1.62 -3.91 -1.93 -0.70 1.12 0.31 1.00 1.19 (%) -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 10 -1 -3 -0 -0 0 -0 0 (%) -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 10 -1 -3 -0 -0 0 -0 0 Year IVA/Revenue Imports/Demand Exports/Revenue 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (%) 20.2 19.9 18.5 19.8 18.0 17.5 19.3 20.3 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.4 19.3 (%) 3.04 3.59 3.71 3.88 3.95 4.07 3.88 3.91 3.94 3.99 3.96 3.93 3.92 3.90 3.89 (%) 6.71 7.43 8.58 7.76 8.30 9.15 9.08 8.50 8.97 8.84 8.93 8.98 9.01 9.05 9.09 Revenue per Employee ($'000) 62.6 64.0 65.2 64.6 62.9 63.5 62.8 59.7 59.7 57.3 57.9 58.5 59.0 59.4 59.7 Wages/Revenue (%) 7.89 8.08 8.27 8.85 9.57 9.98 10.5 10.7 10.7 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 Employees per estab. Average Wage 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 4,941 5,165 5,389 5,714 6,018 6,332 6,603 6,365 6,364 6,314 6,327 6,339 6,351 6,359 6,366 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Industry Financial Ratios April 2018 - March 2019 by company revenue Liquidity Ratios April 2015 March 2016 April 2016 March 2017 April 2017 March 2018 April 2018 March 2019 Current Ratio Quick Ratio Sales / Receivables (Trade Receivables Turnover) Days' Receivables Cost of Sales / Inventory (Inventory Turnover) Days' Inventory Cost of Sales / Payables (Payables Turnover) Days' Payables Sales / Working Capital 1.4 0.6 15.0 24.3 7.1 51.4 23.4 15.6 12.5 1.4 0.5 15.6 23.4 6.3 57.9 27.3 13.4 11.9 1.4 0.6 18.3 19.9 4.9 74.5 28.9 12.6 13.4 1.3 0.6 17.8 20.5 8.2 44.5 23.4 15.6 11.9 1.2 0.4 208.1 1.8 8.4 43.5 113.9 3.2 23.7 1.6 0.8 9.4 38.8 6.3 57.9 13.4 27.2 7.1 1.1 0.6 13.3 27.4 13.9 26.3 14.3 25.5 58.1 Coverage Ratios Earnings Before Interest & Taxes (EBIT) / Interest Net Profit + Dep., Depletion, Amort. / Current Maturities LT Debt 3.2 3.3 2.7 2.0 2.0 3.3 4.1 2.7 3.6 2.0 4.1 2.6 6.9 Leverage Ratios Fixed Assets / Net Worth Debt / Net Worth Tangible Net Worth 1.1 1.5 29.0 0.9 1.4 34.2 1.2 1.6 27.0 1.1 1.2 39.7 1.2 0.8 39.5 1.1 1.4 38.4 0.8 1.2 43.5 Operating Ratios Profit before Taxes / Net Worth, % Profit before Taxes / Total Assets, % Sales / Net Fixed Assets Sales / Total Assets (Asset Turnover) 10.6 3.8 3.0 1.1 7.8 2.7 3.3 1.2 6.2 2.1 2.6 1.0 8.4 4.1 2.4 1.0 8.3 4.6 1.4 0.7 7.6 3.3 3.5 1.0 13.2 4.0 3.8 1.2 Cash Flow & Debt Service Ratios (% of sales) Cash from Trading Cash after Operations Net Cash after Operations Cash after Debt Amortization Debt Service P&I Coverage Interest Coverage (Operating Cash) 29.2 9.3 9.5 2.5 2.4 6.0 30.7 7.3 7.6 0.3 1.4 5.5 32.7 4.8 5.7 -0.2 1.0 3.0 32.8 6.6 8.9 3.0 2.0 4.9 44.7 15.0 14.5 3.6 2.5 7.9 26.5 5.7 6.6 1.6 1.0 2.5 16.1 4.9 5.1 3.7 1.1 4.6 Assets, % Cash & Equivalents Trade Receivables (net) Inventory All Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets (net) Intangibles (net) All Other Non-Current Assets Total Assets Total Assets ($m) 6.2 14.6 19.1 3.8 43.7 45.9 4.1 6.3 100.0 2,450.1 6.5 12.3 19.6 4.5 42.9 40.3 4.5 12.4 100.0 3,377.0 7.0 10.7 17.7 5.8 41.2 45.2 4.5 9.1 100.0 2,704.6 7.4 11.3 14.4 4.4 37.5 48.4 5.7 8.4 100.0 2,626.8 7.3 9.2 12.0 1.9 30.4 58.6 3.9 7.2 100.0 276.4 6.7 14.8 17.4 7.4 46.3 37.3 6.8 9.5 100.0 1,408.3 9.8 9.8 14.8 5.9 40.3 39.8 10.2 9.6 100.0 942.2 Liabilities, % Notes Payable-Short Term Current Maturities L/T/D Trade Payables Income Taxes Payable All Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Deferred Taxes All Other Non-Current Liabilities Net Worth Total Liabilities & Net Worth ($m) 14.5 4.2 8.4 0.7 7.2 35.1 24.7 0.5 6.7 33.1 2,450.1 16.5 4.1 6.3 0.6 6.8 34.3 24.5 0.6 1.9 38.7 3,377.0 15.7 4.6 6.6 0.5 6.6 34.0 28.1 0.6 5.8 31.5 2,704.6 10.7 5.2 7.8 0.3 6.3 30.2 18.4 1.1 5.0 45.4 2,626.8 12.0 7.5 3.3 0.0 8.7 31.6 19.0 1.3 4.7 43.4 276.4 9.0 2.6 11.1 0.7 3.4 26.8 20.2 0.9 6.9 45.2 1,408.3 10.2 3.3 15.9 0.0 5.1 34.5 10.7 0.7 0.4 53.7 942.2 121.0 127.0 117.0 93.0 47.0 34.0 12.0 Maximum No. of Statements Used Small (< Medium $10m) ($10m-50m) Large (> $50m) Source: RMA Annual Statement Studies, rmahq.org. RMA data for all industries is derived directly from more than 260,000 statements of member financial institution's borrowers and prospects. 44 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 Additional Resources Additional Resources Hop Growers of America http://www.usahops.org US Department of Agriculture http://www.usda.gov US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov Hay and Forage Grower Magazine http://www.hayandforage.com Industry Jargon BIOFUEL A fuel consisting of or derived from dead biological material, usually plants. COOPERATIVE (CO-OP) A jointly owned, vertically integrated organization that produces and distributes goods for the benefit of the owners. GENETICALLY MODIFIED A technique where specific changes are introduced into a plant or animal's DNA by genetic engineering techniques. The most common modified foods include soybean, corn and canola. YIELD PER ACRE The volume of crops that can be produced for every acre. This can apply to harvested acreage or planted acreage. Glossary Terms BARRIERS TO ENTRY High barriers to entry mean that new companies struggle to enter an industry, while low barriers mean it is easy for new companies to enter an industry. CAPITAL INTENSITY Compares the amount of money spent on capital (plant, machinery and equipment) with that spent on labor. IBISWorld uses the ratio of depreciation to wages as a proxy for capital intensity. High capital intensity is more than $0.333 of capital to $1 of labor; medium is $0.125 to $0.333 of capital to $1 of labor; low is less than $0.125 of capital for every $1 of labor. 45 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 CONSTANT PRICES The dollar figures in the Key Statistics table, including forecasts, are adjusted for inflation using the current year (i.e. year published) as the base year. This removes the impact of changes in the purchasing power of the dollar, leaving only the "real" growth or decline in industry metrics. The inflation adjustments in IBISWorld’s reports are made using the US Bureau of Economic Analysis’ implicit GDP price deflator. DOMESTIC DEMAND Spending on industry goods and services within the United States, regardless of their country of origin. It is derived by adding imports to industry revenue, and then subtracting exports. EMPLOYMENT The number of permanent, part-time, temporary and seasonal employees, working proprietors, partners, managers and executives within the industry. ENTERPRISE A division that is separately managed and keeps management accounts. Each enterprise consists of one or more establishments that are under common ownership or control. ESTABLISHMENT The smallest type of accounting unit within an enterprise, an establishment is a single physical location where business is conducted or where services or industrial operations are performed. Multiple establishments under common control make up an enterprise. EXPORTS Total value of industry goods and services sold by US companies to customers abroad. IMPORTS Total value of industry goods and services brought in from foreign countries to be sold in the United States. INDUSTRY CONCENTRATION An indicator of the dominance of the top four players in an industry. Concentration is considered high if the top players account for more than 70% of industry revenue. Medium is 40% to 70% of industry revenue. Low is less than 40%. INDUSTRY REVENUE The total sales of industry goods and services (exclusive of excise and sales tax); subsidies on production; all other operating income from outside the firm (such as commission income, repair and service income, and rent, leasing and hiring income); and capital work done by rental or lease. Receipts from interest royalties, dividends and the sale of fixed tangible assets are excluded. 46 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 INDUSTRY VALUE ADDED (IVA) The market value of goods and services produced by the industry minus the cost of goods and services used in production. IVA is also described as the industry's contribution to GDP, or profit plus wages and depreciation. INTERNATIONAL TRADE The level of international trade is determined by ratios of exports to revenue and imports to domestic demand. For exports/revenue: low is less than 5%, medium is 5% to 20%, and high is more than 20%. Imports/domestic demand: low is less than 5%, medium is 5% to 35%, and high is more than 35%. LIFE CYCLE All industries go through periods of growth, maturity and decline. IBISWorld determines an industry's life cycle by considering its growth rate (measured by IVA) compared with GDP; the growth rate of the number of establishments; the amount of change the industry's products are undergoing; the rate of technological change; and the level of customer acceptance of industry products and services. NONEMPLOYING ESTABLISHMENT Businesses with no paid employment or payroll, also known as nonemployers. These are mostly set up by self-employed individuals. PROFIT IBISWorld uses earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) as an indicator of a company’s profitability. It is calculated as revenue minus expenses, excluding interest and tax. REGIONS West | CA, NV, OR, WA, HI, AK Great Lakes | OH, IN, IL, WI, MI Mid-Atlantic | NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD New England | ME, NH, VT, MA, CT, RI Plains | MN, IA, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND Rocky Mountains | CO, UT, WY, ID, MT Southeast | VA, WV, KY, TN, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC, NC Southwest | OK, TX, NM, AZ VOLATILITY The level of volatility is determined by averaging the absolute change in revenue in each of the past five years. Volatility levels: very high is more than ±20%; high volatility is ±10% to ±20%; moderate volatility is ±3% to ±10%; and low volatility is less than ±3%. 47 IBISWorld.com Hay & Crop Farming in the US 11199 August 2020 WAGES The gross total wages and salaries of all employees in the industry. 48 IBISWorld.com IBISWorld helps you find the industry information you need – fast With our trusted research covering thousands of global industries, you’ll get a quick and intelligent overview of any industry so you can get up to speed in minutes. 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