MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HCMC Independence – Liberty – Happines PTCT.QT.xx.03 BACHELOR PROGRAM (Higher education program) MAJOR: MINOR: SYLLABUS 1. Course name: Applied Statistics for Business and Economics 2. Course code: 3. Teaching Department: Statistics - Data Analysis Department 4. Level of competency: apply for students at the first academic year 5. Credits: 3 6. Time allocation: + Theories: 30 + Group works, practice, discussion: 15. + Self-study: 90 7. Prequisite courses: none 8. Course description: Applied Statistics for Economics and Business course provides in a systematic way statistical methods including gathering data on economic & business phenomena and processing collected data into useful information which can be used as facts for 1 making decisions for management of economy and society. These methods include: descriptive statistics, statistical inference, index- number, and forecasting. This course is also to introduce students to popular and easy-to-use packages as a tool to perform statistical techniques to save time and effort, to increase the level of accuracy of the results, and to help students familiar with output interpretation. 9. Course Learning Outcomes – CLOs: After completing the course, students will have better statistical thinking and quantitative analysis capability. In particular, students will be able to: 9.1 Knowledge: - CLO1.1: Present basic concepts in statistics. CLO1.2: Understand and give interpretation as well as examples for the applications of statistics in the fields of economics and business, especially in the fields studied. - CLO1.3: Know primary and secondary data sources. - CLO1.4: Distinguish descriptive statistics and statistical inference. - CLO1.5: Understand the concept of probability and its application in statistical inference. 9.2 Skills: - CLO2.1: Know how to get secondary data. CLO2.2: Know how to get primary data. CLO2.3: Summarize data in the form of graphs or numerical measures. CLO2.4: Implement statistical inference including statistical estimate and hypothesis testing. CLO2.5: Perform time series analysis and basic prediction. CLO2.6: Convey the significance of the statistical results for economic and business decision-making. 9.3 Autonomy and Responsibility: - CLO3.1: Work in groups to complete group tasks. CLO3.2: Proactively work to complete assignments on time. CLO3.3: Actively listen to lecturers’ feedback to implement adjustment. 2 Course learning outcomes matrix: Program Learning Outcomes (PLOs) Course Learning Outcomes (CLOs) PLO1.1 CLO1.1 Present basic concepts in statistics. P CLO1.2 Understand and give interpretation as well as examples for the applications of statistics in the fields of economics and business, especially in the fields studied. S PLO1.2 PLO1.3 PLO1.4 PLO1.5 PLO2.1 PLO2.2 P P P P P H P P S CLO1.3 Know primary and secondary data sources. P CLO1.4 Distinguish descriptive statistics and statistical inference. P CLO1.5 Understand the concept of probability and its application in statistical inference. P H H CLO2.1 Know how to get secondary data. P CLO2.2 Know how to get primary data. P 3 PLO2.3 PLO2.4 PLO2.5 PLO3.1 PLO3.2 PLO3.3 PLO3.4 CLO2.3 Summarize data in the form of graphs or numerical measures. P P H H P CLO2.4 Implement statistical inference including statistical estimate and hypothesis testing. P H P P P CLO2.5 Perform time series analysis and basic prediction. P P H P CLO2.6 Convey the significance of the statistical results for economic and business decisionmaking. CLO3.1: Work in groups to complete group tasks. P P P P H P H H P P H P H P H H H P H H H CLO3.2: Proactively work to complete assignments on time. CLO3.3: Actively listen to lecturers’ feedback to implement adjustment. P Note: P: Partial supported S: Supported H: Highly supported 4 P H H 10. Learning materials: 10.1 Text books: [1] Anderson, David R., Sweeney, Dennis J., Williams, Thomas A., Statistics for Business and Economics, 11th ed., South-Western CENGAGE LEARNING, 2011. Anderson, David R., Sweeney, Dennis J., Williams, Thomas A., Thống Kê trong Kinh Tế Và Kinh Doanh, UEH Publishing, 2020. [2] Slide in English and Vietnamese. 10.2 References: [1] Hoàng Trọng, Chu Nguyễn Mộng Ngọc, Phân tích dữ liệu nghiên cứu với SPSS, Hồng Đức Publishing, 2008 10.3 Others: Practice data set with text book 1 provided in the course on UEH LMS Results of the Vietnam Census 2019 [https://www.gso.gov.vn/du-lieu-va-so-lieuthong-ke/2019/12/ket-qua-tong-dieu-tra-dan-so-va-nha-o-thoi-diem-0-gio-ngay-01thang-4-nam-2019/] Results of the survey on Vietnam's living standards in 2018 [https://www.gso.gov.vn/du-lieu-va-so-lieu-thong-ke/2020/05/ket-qua-khao-sat-mucsong-dan-cu-viet-nam-nam-2018/] Explanation of terms, content and method of calculating some price index [https://www.gso.gov.vn/du-lieu-dac-ta/2019/03/giai-thich-thuat-ngu-noi-dung-vaphuong-phap-tinh-mot-so-chi-tieu-thong-ke-gia/] 5 11. Course teaching plan: Session (hour no.) Session 1 (5) Content (chapter, section) Chapter 1: Data and Statistics 1. Applications in business and economics 2. Data 3. Data sources 4. Descriptive statistics 5. Statistical inference 6. Computers and statistical analysis 7. Ethical guidelines for statistical practice Chapter 2: Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Presentations Teaching method Learning materials (chapter, section) Student works in detail Corresponding CLO General method: lecture [1] chapter 1, 2 combined with specific explanations and questions to help students identify the main points of the content through situations. Read materials in advance CLO1.1 Form groups of 3-5 students each CLO1.2 Website reference: CLO1.3 http://www.gso.gov.vn CLO1.4 Provide case study: we need statistical data to make a decision; why we need descriptive statistics; why we need statistical inference; using incomplete statistical information, distorting the facts. https://unstats.un.org/home/ CLO2.1 http://data.un.org/ CLO2.2 https://www.fitchsolutions.com/ CLO2.3 http://www.sbv.gov.vn https://www.euromonitor.com/ https://www.nielsen.com/vn/vi/ https://www.ibm.com/analytics/s pss-statistics-software Keyword for search: infographic. 1. Summarizing qualitative data 2. Summarizing quantitative data 3. Exploratory data analysis: the stemand-leaf display 4. Crosstabulations and scatter diagrams 5. Introduction of statistical packages Group work: discuss to identify a problem that requires statistical study and identify the data to be collected. Lecturer comments. Homework: do the exercises in chapters 1 and 2. 6 CLO3.1 Session 2 (5) Chapter 3: Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures 1. Measures of location 2. Measures of variability 3. Measures of distribution shape, relative location, and detecting outliers 4. Exploratory data analysis 5. Measures of association between two variables 6. The weighted mean and working with grouped data 7. Manual computer program Give situations so that students understand the meaning of measuring the location and variation for decision making. [1] chapter 3 Practice by doing a group work being a project to collect primary data and present the results of descriptive statistics. Read materials in advance CLO2.1 Group work: identify topic, define the research problem, state the research objective, and the variables needed for data collection. CLO2.2 Homework The groups present their research plans; the lecturers make comments and exchange opinions CLO2.3 CLO2.6 CLO3.1 CLO3.2 Cengage's Mindtap exercises chapters 1,2,3 (optional) CLO3.3 Read materials in advance CLO1.5 Troubleshooting questions about exercises Session 3 (5) Chapter 4: Introduction to Probability 1. Experiments, counting rules, and assigning probabilities 2. Events and their probabilities 3. Some basic relationships of probability 4. Conditional probability 5. Bayes’ theorem Chapter 5: Discrete Probability Distributions 1. Random variables 2. Discrete probability distributions Give situations when we make a decision and the results are uncertain, so the decision-maker needs to know the likelihood that it will happen to have the proper response. Give situation to explain why it is necessary to know the probability distribution of the random variable. The groups present questionnaires, lecturer gives comments and exchanges ideas. 7 [1] chapter 4, 5 Homework Group work: questionnaire and data collection plan. CLO3.1 CLO3.2 CLO3.3 3. 4. 5. 6. Session 4 (5) Expected value and variance Binomial probability distribution Poisson probability distribution Hypergeometric probability distribution (self study) Chapter 6: Continuous Probability Distributions 1. Uniform probability distribution 2. Normal probability distribution 3. Normal approximation of binomial probabilities 4. Exponential probability distribution (self study) Chapter 7: Sampling and Sampling Distributions 1. 2. 3. 4. Give situation to explain why it is necessary to know the probability distribution of the continuous random variable. [1] chapter 6, 7 Read materials in advance CLO1.5 Homework Group work: revise the questionnaire and start to collect data. Exercises on Mindtap Cengage chapters 4,5,6,7 (optional) Give an example of data standardization to get the standardized normal probability distribution, which makes it possible to calculate probabilities quickly by lookup tables and statistical functions. CLO3.1 CLO3.2 CLO3.3 Sampling Point estimation Give the situation why it Introduction to sampling distributions is necessary to know the Sampling distribution of sample mean sample probability distribution and the x application of the sample 5. Sampling distribution of sample distribution in interval proportion p estimation and hypothesis 6. Properties of point estimators testing. 7. Other sampling methods (self study) Session 5 (5) Chapter 8: Interval Estimation 1. Population mean 2. Determining the sample size Give decision-making situations that require information from interval estimation and hypothesis 8 [1] chapter 8, 9 Read materials in advance CLO1.5 Homework CLO2.4 Group work: continue to collect CLO2.6 3. Population proportion testing data. Cengage's Mindtap exercises chapters 8,9,10 (optional) Chapter 9: Hypothesis Tests 1. Developing null and alternative hypotheses 2. Type I and type II errors 3. Population mean 4. Population proportion 5. Hypothesis testing and decision making 6. Calculating the probability of type II errors (self study) 7. Determining the sample size for a hypothesis test about a population mean (self study) Session 6 (5) Chapter 10: Statistical Inference About Means and Proportions with Two Populations 1. Inferences about the difference between two population mean 2. Inferences about the difference between two population means: matched samples CLO3.1 CLO3.2 Give decision-making situations that require information from hypothesis testing with two populations [1] chapter 10 Read materials in advance CLO1.5 Homework CLO2.4 Group work: summarize and present data, perform statistical inference CLO2.6 CLO3.1 CLO3.2 CLO3.3 3. Inferences about the difference between two population proportions Troubleshooting questions about exercises Session 7 (5) Mid-term exam: chapters 4,5,6,7 (20%) CLO3.1 Group project submission (20%) CLO3.2 CLO3.3 9 Session 8 (5) Chapter 11: Index Numbers 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Give decision-making situations that require Price relatives information from price or Aggregate price indexes quantity changes over Computing an aggregate price index time. from price relatives Some important price indexes Deflating a series by price indexes Price indexes: other considerations Quantity indexes [1] chapter 17, 18 Read materials in advance CLO2.1 Homework CLO2.5 Cengage Mindtap Exercises (optional) CLO2.6 Chapter 12: Forecasting 1. Components of a time series 2. Smoothing methods 3. Trend projection 4. Trend and seasonal components 5. Regression analysis Give situations which need to forecast in economics and business 6. Qualitative approaches (self study) Session 9 (5) Review, questions and answers Homework Announce process score Total: 45 10 12. Student workload: Students must perform the following tasks: - Read the material in advance for the coresponding session and do all the activities detailed in Section 11; Students must actively give their opinions in situations given in lectures; Actively participate and contribute to group work. 13. Student assessment system: - Quiz: Mid-term exam: Final exam (project): 30% 20% 50% Scoring guide/Rubric Rubric 1. Group work assessment Weight (%) Excellent (100%) Good (75%) 20 Proactively and actively discuss with the lecturer and make fine adjustments Participate in discussion with the lecturer and make required adjustments 10 Very detailed and clear data collection plan 10 Collect data to meet the requirements of sample size and survey object Data summary and presentation 10 Summarizing and presenting data is very easy to understand, very easy to visualize Statistical Inference 10 Good statistical inference Component Identify research problems, research objectives, research content Data collection plan Data collection 11 Moderately detailed and clear data collection plan Data collection is moderately right on sample size and audience requirements Summarizing and presenting data is moderately easy to understand, moderately easy to visualize Moderately good statistical Average (50%) Poor (0%) Less participation in discussion and with the lecturer and less adjustment Less detailed and less clear data collection plan Data collection is less approriate with sample and audience size requirements No participation in discussion and with the lecturer and no adjustment Summarizing and presenting data is able to understand, able to visualize Summarizing and presenting data is difficult to understand, difficult to visualize Acceptable statistical Poor statistical inference Sketchy data collection plan Actively collect data that is not on demand on sample size and object Significance and application of the results of statistical analysis 20 Good interpretation of the significance of statistical results to decision making Presentation quality 20 Creatively, appropriate inference Moderately good interpretation of the significance of statistical results to decision making Appropriate inference Acceptable interpretation of the significance of statistical results to decision making Poor interpretation of the significance of statistical results to decision making Somewhat appropriate Inappropriate 14. Student support: Lecturers will answer questions from students on the online forum, and schedule at least one session each week to be present in the school office to meet directly with students to solve complicated problems directly. Student reception schedule and online faculty forum must notify students from the first session and announce on the course on the UEH LMS. HCMC, February 26, 2021 SCHOOL HEAD’S APPROVAL COMPOSER (signature and full name) (signature and full name) Hà Văn Sơn Hoàng Trọng – Trần Hà Quyên 12