1) Distinguish between headline and underlying inflation (2): - Both headline and underlying inflation look at an increase in the general price levels over a period. - Headline inflation rate includes volatile movement, is measured by the % change in CPI overtime. Whereas underlying inflation excludes volatile/ one-off price changes and is measured by trimmed mean and weighted median. Headline inflation refers to increase in general price levels, which may include volatile price movements. On the other hand, underlying inflation refers to the increase in general price levels that excludes or one-off price movements. Whilst headline inflation is calculated by percentage changes in the Consumer Price index (CPI), underlying inflation is calculated using trimmed mean and weighted median CPI method. 2) Outline the relationship between inflation and the exchange rate (2): - When AUD increases price of foreign G&S decreases imported inflation decrease cost push inflation - Increase in inflation worsens of international competitiveness decreased demand for export decrease demand for AUD depreciation A depreciation of the exchange rate will require more domestic currency to purchase the same amount of foreign currency, increasing the price of imports, leading to imported inflation. More expensive imports lead to upward pressure on the level of inflation. Alternatively, an appreciation of the exchange rate places downward pressure on important inflation, as consumers have a greater purchasing power and hence goods are less expensive (inverse relationship). 3) Analyse the relationship between inflation and unemployment (3): - Identify the relationship ST- inverse relationship between inflation and u/e- use Philip’s curve - ST- explain why if unemployment decreases the average level of national income increases consumer spending and investment increases Inc AUD inflation - LT however, in the LT the economy operates at the NAIRU, where there is no relationship butene inflation and unemployment as cyclical unemployment=0. In the short term, there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. As unemployment decreases, more individual has a greater disposable income. This leads to an increase in consumption, aggregate demand (AD=C+I+G+X-M) and hence increases the level of demand-pull inflation in the short term. However, as the economy tends towards the NAIRU in the long term, there is no relationship due to the level of cyclical unemployment being 0 (or the emergence of the wage-price spiral forces employees to cut employment due to increasing production costs). 4) Discuss the impacts of high inflation rates on the Australian economy (3) - Negative impact- High inflation decreases purchasing power of income increase cost of living decrease AG & growth/ worsens economic development/// worsens the distribution of wealth and income - Positive example in the short term encourages foreign investments as they suspect there will be higher return High inflation levels in Australia will decrease the purchasing power of consumers if nominal income levels are fixed. This means the real income of individuals in the economy will decline, and thus less G&S can be brought when the general price level rises. A benefit of high inflation is no deflation. Deflation- the decrease in the general price level, will discourage consumption as consumers continue to expect price decreases, lowering AD and economic growth. This was evident in the 2nd qtr of 2020, where the Aust eco experienced a period of -0.3% deflation alongside -6.2% of economic growth. However, during the periods of high inflation, consumer are incentivised to bring forward consumption, so AD instead increases. 5) Define ecologically sustainable development (1) - The government pursuit to meet the need of current generations and future generations. - Intergenerational equity Ecologically sustainable development refers to the govt’s objective to meet the needs of the present without compromising the long-term preservation of the environment and therefore the ahility of future generations to access these resources. 6) Outline two examples of a public good (2) - Public goods are non-rival and non-excludable - Give two examples National defence and national parks are public goods- this is because these goods are nonexcludable. People cannot be excluded from receiving defence or entering national park, since there is no price that has to be paid for either. In addition, these goods are non-rival, since one individual’s access to defence and street light ie. Through consumption, will not reduce the amount of available for consumption by others. 7) Explain tragedy of the commons with reference to Market Failure (3): - Explain tragedy of the commons often due to the lack of clearly defined property rights this often leads to exploitation of resources. - Explain market failure & link to TOC occurs when the price mechanism fails to consider negative externalities inefficient allocation of goods Since it doesn’t take into account the total prices & because of the lack of property rights allows depletion of resources to occur The tragedy of the commons occurs because some goods do not have well defined property rights. As a result, individuals continue to deplete resources without regard for intergenerational equity, leading to the overuse of resources. As a result, market quantity of this environmental good is too high, and the price is too low (due to an oversupply), creating a negative externality (depletion of environment). The creation of a negative externality leads to market failure, as the price mechanism fails to consider the unintended negative side effects and thus the market does not operate at its most socially optimum point. 8) Propose and justify a policy response to address market failure in relation to the environment. (4) - Outlining market failure - Proposing a policy- e.g. the carbon tax - Carbon tax internalises the externality increases production costs decreases quantity produced closer to socially optimal equilibrium Market failure occurs when the price mechanism fails to allocate resources most efficiently, thus creates unintended positive or negative effects on society. The carbon tax can be used as a policy response to address market failure caused by the negative externality of greenhouse gas pollution. For example, the Australia government implemented a $23 per tonne tax on CO2 emission in the 2011-12 budget. This policy would put a ‘price’ on the unintended negative side effects of fossil fuels used, to internalise this social cost into the private costs of firms., ‘internalising’ the externality. By internalising this cost, the free market will respond by reducing the quantity of goods supplied and increasing their price, as firms pass on the higher cost of production to consumers. This would result in lower carbon emissions, lowering greenhouse gas pollution and putting downward pressure on the enhanced greenhouse gas effects. This effectively removes the social costs created by greenhouse gas pollution, addressing market failure in relation to climate change of the environment. Evidently, during,2012-14, 20 tonnes of carbon emission was reduced it was eliminated due to being politically unpopular. 9) Describe two ways in which a government can finance a budget deficit, (2) - By borrowing from the private sector - Monetary financing A government can finance. A budget through monetary financing or through selling govt assets. Monetary financing results in the govt instructing the RBA to print money, where the govt sells commonwealth govt securities to the RBA in exchange. Alternatively, it can be achieved through selling assets, such as the govt’s commonwealth share of land, allows the govt to raise revenue to meet the Shortall in expenditure. 10) Explain two limitations of fiscal policy in achieving economic objectives (3): - Two limitations: o Implementation- Time lag, occurs once a year. o Political constraints- depends on support rate, parties need to agree by voting. - Explain limitations and linking to objectives time lag constrains Australia’s ability to achieve economic growth. A limitation of fiscal policy is the medium term implementation time lag. Since the budget is released once per year, events that occur throughout the year can only be addressed yearly in the budget and hence economic objective cannot be as frequently addressed as the short term monthly implementation of monetary policy. Additionally, political constraints mean that the government may prioritise certain objectives over others to satisfy the largest number of voters. These objectives may not align with the economic objectives that are most helpful in improving the strength of the nation’s economy, such as prioritising fiscal consolidation to reduce public debt when economic growth is very weak. 11) Evaluate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in achieving sustainable economic growth (4): - Explicit evaluation about effectiveness of policies: - Describing 2 macro policies- monetary and fiscal - Using relevant stats o COVID Monetary was ineffective since it was so low Fiscal was effective- govt budget was the main factor of Australia achieving a V-shaped recovery - Explain links Fiscal and monetary policy are macroeconomic policies, which attempts to achieve a sustainable growth rate of 3-4%. Fiscal policy was expansionary, with the 2020-21 budget calculating an underlying cash deficit of 7.8% of GDP, from a previous deficit of 4.3%. This was due to the introduction of large expenditure package, such as the $90bn JobKeeper wage subsidy. An expansionary stance generally led to an increase in the contribution of G to AD, which creates higher output and thus economic growth. The monetary policy stance in Australia was also expansionary, as the cash rate was lowered to an all-time low of 0.1%. Expansionary MP leads to a decrease in the cost of borrowing which encourages borrowing for C and I, leading to a rise in the level of aggregate demand. (AD=C+U+G+X-). When AD increases short-term economic growth is created. As higher expenditure leads to higher output. The cumulative effect of both expansionary macroeconomic policies moved growth in Australia moving to 1.8% in 1st qtr of 2021 from -0.3% in the previous year, Whilst GDP improved, since it did not move to its target, both macroeconomic policy in combination can be considered ineffective in achieving sustainable economic growth. 12) Outline the managed flexible peg system of exchange rate determination. (2) - Define it The RBA sets it daily by pegging it to a certain value at 9am, from which it will operate through the day. - Explain the extent/ role of the market forces and govt intervention int his exchange rate system This allows government intervention, while providing more flexibilities for the market. The managed flexible peg system involves the central bank pinning the currency to a certain value daily. The currency is allowed to drift away due to market forces within an upper and lower range set by the central bank. If the exchange rate moves outside this flexible range, the central bank is responsible for directly intervening in the forex market to bring the value back into the range. 13) Discuss the impacts of an appreciating exchange rate on the Australian economy. (3) - Positive effect higher purchasing power in the international market cheaper imports domestic consumers become more inclined to purchase domestically produced goods decreases employment as AD decreases - Negative effect decreases export’s international competitiveness higher unemployment/ worsening of the BoGS and CA and BoP - Explaining links well An appreciation of the exchange rate means that Australia is more easily able to repay its foreign debt, known as the valuation effect. This occurs because the same amount of AUD can buy more foreign currency, so servicing costs of debt will reduce. However, since 95% of Australia is denominated in AUD terms, the exchange rate is negligible and the valuation effect is minimal since more foreign currency is required to purchase the same amount of AUD, Australian G&S become more expensive. In the long term, this will lead to a decrease in the demand for Australia’s Xs, and thus a decline in international competitiveness which worsens the BoGS and Ca and thus external stability. 14) Analyse the relationship between the exchange rate and the current account (5) - Exchange rate CAo Valuation effect o J-Curve - CA Exchange rateo Poor CA impacts investors confidences, hence investment decreases demand for AUD decreases depreciation - Stats and examples: o The continuous depreciation of AUD over the last decades helped sustaining the international competitiveness of Australian’s commodity exports helped Aus to enter a CAS in June 2019 mainly due to the large surplus in BoGS of 77.4b. - Sophisticated analysis A depreciation in the AUD will lead to a decrease in the price of exports and an increase in cost of imports for the Australian economy. In the short term, where quantity is fixed, export revenue falls and import expenditure increases, worsening the BOGS and thus the CA- there is a short-term proportional relationship. In the long term, export demand will rise due to increased international competitiveness and import demand falls due to domestic consumer’s decreasing purchasing power in the international market, contributing to higher export revenue and lower import expenditure, improving BOGS and thus CA- there is a long term inverse relationship. A depreciation may increase the cost of servicing cost through the valuation effect, increasing debits on the NPY and thus worsening the CA. However, 95% of Australia debt is denominated in AUD terms so the valuation effect is minimal. This relationship was evident as the exchange rate depreciated from 0$.74 in 2016 to $0.69 in 2019, accompanied by an improvement in the BOGS from $2.2bn deficit to $7.4bn surplus in the same period. Subsequently, the CA reached a $5bn surplus in 2019. On the other hand, a deterioration in the CA is likely to result in a depreciation. When the CA worsens, foreign investors are reluctant to invest into Australia as the economy may not be able to repay all of its foreign debt, namely during a CAD. This results in decreased demand for the AUD and hence may cause a depreciation. Likewise, an improvement of the CA to a surplus suggests that Australia is able to pay back its foreign debt, resulting in increased demand for the AUD and, hence causing an appreciation. This is evident during 2021 where the CAS of $15.4bn encouraged investment inflows despite COVID-19 to appreciate the AUD from its 0.58USD/AD covid low to $0.69 USD/AUD currently. 15) How fiscal policy can be used to improve Australia’s external stability. (4) - Use a budget surplus to pay off existing net foreign debt dec in NFL/NFD improves external stability - Contractionary fiscal policy generate a surplus/ dec AD dec Y improves BoGS improve CAD external stability - E.g. Pre-Covid (not actually achieved), the govt was aiming for a 6 million surplus in 2019-10, this would be the first surplus since 2008 long term goal was to reduce public debt to 0% by 2030. Using contractionary fiscal policy by decreasing the amount government expenditure or increasing the level of taxation will overall decrease the level of AD (AD=C+I+G+X-M). A reduction in AD passes over to lower short term economic growth, and thus a reduction in the level of income in the Australian economy. As this occurs, the level of import expenditure will also decline, improving the BOGS, and subsequently the CA as a % of GDP. Also, fiscal consolidation is a process used by the government in fiscal policy by cutting down on govt expenditure or taxation to move the federal budget to a surplus. When a budget surplus occurs, the excess of funds can be used to pay back overseas public sector debt, which reduces NFD and NFL as a % of GDP, thus improving external stability. This was evident pre-COVID-19, when FP’s main objective was fiscal consolidation which ultimately projected a $6bn budget surplus in the 2019-20 budget, the first surplus since 2008. This contractionary stance allowed for a reduction in the growth of overseas public debt with a long-term goal reaching 0% by 2030. 16) With reference to the most recent budget, assess the effectiveness of fiscal policy in achieving 2 of Australia’s economic objectives. (4) - Extensive reference to recent budget o $7.8 bn tax cuts for low Y earners creases consumption, increases AD influences 10.2 million people -7% growth in June quarter of 2020 to 1.8% March quarter 2021. o $15.2 bn continuation of 10 year infrastructure plan (included projects such as development of ports, airports etc leads to at least 30,000 jobs created unemployment fallen from 7.4% in June 2020 to 4.9% in June 2021 In the 2021-22 budget, the govt announced an additional $7.8bn in tax cuts for low and middle-income tax earners in order to increase economic growth. This would allow for higher disposable income for up to 10.2 million individuals in these group, increasing consumption (i.e. higher MPC for lower Y earners) ad AD (AD=C+I+G+X-M). Higher expenditure in the economy will result in a higher level of output, thus effectively increasing economic growth from its COVID-19 trough of -0.7% to 3.3% in 2021. The govt also announced an extension to temporal loss carry-back and full expensing, which allows eligible business to carry-back tax losses as far back as 2018-19. More untaxed benefits, estimated $20.7bn in tax relief, allows firms to employ more individuals, reducing unemployment to 5.6% in 2021 from 7.5% in the June qtr of 2020, Thus FP has been effective at moving closer to its full employment goal of 4.5%. 17) Using a diagram, discuss the effects of a subsidy to domestic producers on the domestic economy. (4) A subsidy given to domestic firms will result in a decrease in production costs, passing over to a decline in prices as shown in the graph from P to P1. This will result in an increase in domestic supply to meet higher demand at a lower price at P1, shifting the supply curve to the right as shown from the graph. Thus, domestic producers are positively benefited by an increase in revenue and profits received. However, this subsidy can cause ‘rent-seeking behaviour’, where domestic producers become over-reliant on the govt assistance, and thus have no incentive to be productive. This can result in a decrease in efficiency of these firms, constraining AS and slowing long term economic growth. 18) Describe two non-tariff and non-subsidy methods of protection and explain their effects on the domestic economy. (3) - Demonstrate causality of 2 non-tariff and non-subsidy methods of protection on the domestic economy. Export incentives are economic instruments provided by the government that assist domestic producers in increasing their global market share (marketing advice). This encourages domestic firms to become more productive in order to increase their global consumer base, which increases export income and thus AD and short term economic growth. Quotas are protection policies that provide a quantitative restriction on the number of imports allowed into the domestic economy. This restriction allows for domestic producers to gain a higher domestic market share, thus increasing their revenue and profit. 19) Outline 1 bilateral trade agreement which Australia is currently party to. (2) - E.g. CHAFTA removes tariff on Australian agricultural and services, should have the complete removal of tariffs on wine, diary, beef, and wool by 2026// Increase in FDI from China of $252m to $1.1bn. Australia partakes in the Chinese-Australia Free Trade agreement (CHAFTA). CHAFTS involves the removal of tariffs on Australia’s agricultural and service sectors, namely with the complete removal of tariff on wine, dairy, beef and wool by 2026. CHAFTA also involves an increase in the allowance of FDI inflows from China in non-sensitive sectors from $252m to $1.1bn. However, current implementation of CHAFTA is postponed due to the rising trade tension between China and Australia, where China in 2021 announced a 200% tariff on Australia wine, which was claimed as an anti-dumping measure. 20) Describe the impact of one trend in global trade flows on a regional business cycle: - In 2020, consumer confidence decreased decrease in merchandise (tangible G&S) trade of 14.9% in end quarter of 2020 contraction in the Asia pacific regional business cycle. (2) During early 2002, COVID-19 caused a drop in consumer confidence and consumption namely with merchandise exports dropping by 14.9% in the 2nd quarter of 2020. This drop in global merchandise trade has contracted the Asia-Pacific regional business cycle. 21) Examine the impact of an increasingly synchronized international business cycle on the global economy. (3) - Greater trade integration competitiveness advantage and specialisation increases global allocative efficiencies increases GWP - Financial contagion COVID decreased growth in China by 6.8% in 2020 fall in GWP decreased to -3.6%. An increasingly synchronised international business cycle indicates stronger trade integration between individual economies of both intermediate and consumer goods, which leads to synchronised economies specialising in their comparative advantage. This will increase global allocative efficiency, which leads to stronger global world product (GWP) growth. However, as economies become more synchronised, they are more susceptible to financial contagion as evident in COVID-19, where market disturbances in China spread to other economies. The decrease in China’s economies growth by 6.8% in early 2020 passed over to a decline in global confidence evident with GWP growth at -3.6% in 2020. 22) Discuss the impacts of multilateral trade agreements on the global economy. (3) - One positive: Involvement of large number of economies increase in allocative efficiency trade creation increases GWP. - One negative: Negotiation is lengthy preference for bilateral, o For example- RCEP signed in November 2020, first meeting regarding formation was in 2013. Additionally, even after signing, it took 60 days before it came into effect. Multilateral trade agreements tend to be advantageous, since it implies the involvement of large number of economies all reducing barriers to the international movement of goods and services. When this occurs, economies are able to reallocate resources to efficient industries to export, and import other G&S, which increases global allocative efficiency through trade creation, increasing GWP. However, the process of negotiation tends to be long due to the need to benefit all countries involved, which instead encourages the formation of bilateral trade agreements. This was evident during the formation of RCEP (regional comprehensive economic partnership), which is signed in November 2020, disregard the first meeting in 2013. Additionally, even after signing, it took 60 days before it came into effect. 23) Outline two reasons for differences for economic development between nations. (2) - Internal: o cultural/ technology o Resource endowments o Institutional factors o Investment opportunities - External: o Global trade system o Global financial system A country with high level of natural resource endowment will be able to utilise more inputs to increase its level of economic growth. An increase in economic growth allows for an increase in per capita income levels, and thus higher material living standards and economic development. The global financial system favours the movement of financial flows to advanced economies where the risk of investment flows are lower compared to developing economies. The lack of investment into developing economies restricts the from being able to invest in infrastructure, which will improve living standards. 24) Outline the relationship between net foreign debt and the CAD. (2) - There is a proportional relationship between NFD and CAD. - NFD requires services repayments it is debited from the NPY NPY worsens and CAD worsens. An increase in the stock of net foreign debt means that Australia’s debt obligation has increased. In the future, these obligations are repaid via debt repayments of interest, recorded on the net primary income of the CA, increasing the overall size of the deficit. The relationship between NFD and the size of the CAD is thus proportional. 25) Assess the impacts of a sustained CAD on domestic economic performance. (3) - 1 neg Investor confidence - 1 pos Pitchford thesis A sustained CAD suggests that the economy has high long-term obligations to foreign economies, which reduces the confidence of potential investors in the domestic economy. This will result in a reduction in investment inflows (FDI and FPI), which can result in lower AD and thus economic growth. However, if a sustained CAD is a result of private sector borrowing and capital inflow, then such finance will be allocated to sectors that will increase output in the future, leading to higher productive capacity, AS and thus long term economic growth. Thus, in the LT, a sustained CAD may be beneficial for a domestic economy’s growth performance. 26) Explain the effects of the microeconomic reform in the 1980s on the size and composition of Australia’s CAD. (4) - Outline a feature of relevant MER financial reforms - Explaining effects of MER on size and composition of CAD the deregulation of the financial market increased access to international financial market allowed capital inflow increases NFD and servicing costs worsens CAD. - NPY became a predominant feature of the CAD (structural aspect) Deregulation of the financial sector in 1980s, namely the entry of 16 foreign banks led to an increase in access to foreign funds for Australians. Since Australia has a historically low level of domestic savings and thus a saving-investment gap. Firms and consumers were able to take advantage of greater access to overseas funds through international borrowing which led to an increase in stock of net foreign debt. In the future, repayments for this high-level debt were recorded as increased debits on the net primary account, creating a long term persistent NPY deficit averaging -3% of GDP for the account. This structural factor thus caused an increase in the importance of the NPY in the composition of the CA, and moved the CA to a persistent deficit during 1990s to 2019. 27) Distinguish between dynamic and allocative efficiency: - Dynamic efficiency is the ability to adapt to changes in the market such as consumer tastes and preferences - Allocative is the ability to allocate resources to achieve increase in productivity 28) Describe the feature of one microeconomic reform. (2) National Competition Policy (NCP) was introduced in 1995, along with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) responsible for its application and enforcement. NCP was aimed at fostering an environment of competitive neutrality where firms were put on an ‘equal footing’ with one another through removal of special advantage, in order to increase productivity and efficiency. 29) Outline two limitations of microeconomic policy in achieving its objective. (2) - Time lag between tis implementation and its effects (generally 10-20 years). - Causes structural unemployment - Political constraints Microeconomic reform has a long impact time lag, as it usually involves the reallocation of resources and structural change in order to increase AS and long-term economic growth. Microeconomic reform also has political constraints, since it will create short-term side effects such as structural unemployment. Thus government are politically limited to not pursue MER since these side effects tend to dissuade voters. 30) Discuss the impacts of microeconomy reform on inflation and employment within the economy - Pos inflation Shifts NAIRU, reduces inflation by increasing unemployment - Pos unemployment increase in AS improves growth, higher productive capacity allows higher employment rate - Neg unemployment MR increases ST structural unemployment - Link the removal of PMV subsidies Microeconomic reform results in structural change that allows for an increase in aggregate supply, and long-term non-inflationary economic growth. This increase in productive capacity through MER reduces cost-push inflationary pressure, and thus lowers long term inflation levels. However, this structural change typically involves a displacement of labour resources from inefficient sectors to efficient sectors, creating an increase in short term structural unemployment. This was evident with the establishment of free trade, via the removal of PMV subsidies by the Australian government which caused an expected 50,000 decrease in employment in 2015. In the long term, the increase in aggregate supply supported by structural change incentivises an increase in employment to meet the higher productive capacity of the inflation, increasing employment in the long term. 31) Explain why govt are the main providers of public goods: - Public goods tend to be beneficial, but are often underproduced as the public goods are nonrival and non-excludable private firms lacks the incentive to profit as they aims to maximise profit. - Link between public good and the lack of provision. Since public goods are non-excludable, i.e. Cannot be exclusively given to consumers by putting a price on them, private firms gain no private benefits (i.e. Revenue/profit) by producing them. This lack of provision of public goods creates market failure, since public goods are necessary for society due to the positive externalities created. Thus govt involve themselves as the main provider of these public goods due to the benefits for society. For example, 32) Why does the open market fails to consider positive externalities. (3) - Price mechanism - Goods are underproduced positive externalities are not experienced by - Sufficient reference to private and social benefits The open market only considers private costs and private benefits, positive externalities are those unintended positive side effects of production and/pr consumption of a G&S. Since the price mechanism fails to accurately price these benefits, there is lower demand for these goods than there should (e.g. individuals don’t understand the external benefits of education such as reduced crime), so the price mechanism only takes into account private benefits. Thus the market will eliminate positive externalities due to the additional price placed on goods if the social benefits was to be incorporated which would otherwise reduce profit motive. 33) For an economy other than Australia, discuss the impacts of globalisation on environmental sustainability. - Positive impact joined the Paris agreement- in the 15th 5 year plan, China announced a 50% carbon emission cut to be achieved by 2030 - Negative impact pollution increases air pollution 50x above the recommended level. in 2008, China had 11 of the 20th cities that’s most polluted. For the Chinese economy, globalisation allowed for an increase in specialisation in the economy’s comparative advantage- manufacturing, due to the increasing access to global market. As a result, there was an increase in output from the secondary sector, which required a high use of inputs, namely fossil fuel to meet global demand, leading to an increase in pollution. This worsened environmental sustainability was recorded with China having 11 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world in 2008. However, globalisation also created an incentive for the formation of international environmental agreements, such as the Paris Agreement. Given China’s poor environmental contribution, the international pressure from the Paris agreement encouraged China to undertake environmental policies in its 13th 5 year plan, with over $100bn allocated to creating the largest solar far in the world. Thus, more recently globalisation has encouraged China to improve its level of environmental sustainability. 34) Account for 1 recent trend in Australia’s inflation rate: - Deflation during June quarter 2020 at -0.3% due to decrease in consumption, evidently consumer confidence decreased from 113 to 73. Leading to decrease in AD and demand pull inflation, 35) Outline the relationship between inflation and distribution of income within the economy. (2) - Inflation increase = worsens distribution of income Lower income earners experience a greater decrease in purchasing power - Increase in inequality decreases inflation, as higher income earners have a higher MPS less spending and lowers demand pull inflation A higher inflation rate will worsen the distribution of income, as lower income earners are less likely to have their Y indexed to inflation, where higher income earners are more likely to have their Y indexed to productivity (which can typically rise faster for higher Y earners than inflation). Thus, when inflation increases, the real Y of lower Y earners will likely decrease where higher Y earners will likely increase, worsening the distribution of income. 36) Explain how monetary policy is used to manage inflation. (3) - MP is manipulation of CR by RBA to achieve 2-3% inflation in the median term. - MP is manipulated through domestic market operation, where commonwealth government securities are brought or sold. This will either decrease or increase the monetary supply in the market, which will increase or decrease the cash rate. - Higher cash rate would decrease inflation. As cost of borrowing increases, resulting in decreased consumption and investment Monetary policy involves the manipulation of the cash rate in order to influence market interest rates to reach 2-3% inflation in the medium term. The cash rate can be manipulated through domestic market operations, where second-hand commonwealth government securities (CGS) are sold or brought to decrease or increase money supply in order to increase or decrease the cash rate respectively. A higher cash rate will discourage borrowing for consumption, lowering expenditure, AD and demand-pull inflation, whilst a lower cash rate will increase demand-pull inflation to increase inflation to its target band. 37) Discuss the impacts of high rate of inflation on economic growth and unemployment. (4) - Benefits on growth and u/eo High inflation consumption being brought forward, leads to increase consumption, increase AD and increases ST growth. o Ue To meet increasing demand for G&S firms increase demand for labour, resulting in decreased cyclical unemployment - Costs on growth and u/eo High inflation suggests greater uncertainty deteriorates investor confidence lower investment lower AD/ lower growth. o To retain profit margin firms cut back on labour costs (~60% of total costs for firms in AUS is labour) decreases demand for labour increase u/e A high inflation rate will incentivise consumers to bring their consumption decisions due to rising prices. This will result in a higher level of expenditure, increasing AD and output, leading to short-term economic growth. Likewise, to meet higher output, firms will increase their derived demand for labour, reducing cyclical unemployment. However, a high inflation ate suggests an uncertain economic environment for potential investors, decreasing investment in the domestic economy. This will result in a reduction in domestic expenditure, AD and output, lowering the level of economic growth. To retain profit margins, firs will cut back on labour costs by reducing their demand, increasing cyclical unemployment. 38) Outline the term “net foreign liabilities” - Total Australia is liable for overseas – total amount of overseas is liable to Australia - NFL= NFD + NFE 39) Explain the impact of a sustained CAD on future rates of economic growth. (2) - Large CAD reduces investor confidence & potential downgrading of credit rating decreases FDI & FPI decreases I and decreases Eco growth. A sustained CAD suggests that the economy has a high level of foreign liabilities, reducing investor confidence. This will result in a reduction in FDI and FPI inflows, lowering AD and short-term economic growth. This reduction in investment also reduced the ability of firms to increase their productive capacity, lowering AS and long-term economic growth. 40) Evaluate the effectiveness of govt policies in maintaining external stability - Require a judgement. (5) - Eg. Fiscal consolidation (movement towards a budget surplus to pay off public debt) Aim of $6 bn in 2019.20 pay off public sector debt to 0% by 2030 (improves NFD as a % of GDP) Global influence (COVID-19) - Compulsory savings on income and the planned increase from 9.5% pre-July 2021 10% currently 12% by 2025 reduces the savings and investment gap decreases the need for international borrowing, which decrease NFL%GDP. - However, increase labour costs increases cost-push inflation decrease international competitiveness worsens external stability. - Overall, judgement- mixed effectiveness Before COVID-19, fiscal policy targeted improvement in external stability through a fiscal consolidation strategy. This involved cutting down on government expenditure or taxation to move the federal budget to a surplus. When a budget surplus occurs, the excess of funds can be used to pay back overseas public sector debt, which educes NFD and NFL as a % of GDP, thus improving external stability. This was evident pre-COVID-19, when FP projected a %6bn budget surplus in the 2019-20 budget, the first surplus since 2008. However, FP’s susceptibility to global influences, such as COVID-19 caused the budget to move to a cyclical deficit with a significant increase in unemployment benefits (GE) and a decrease in tax (T). Additionally, government policy has target increases in the compulsory superannuation rate from 9.5% in 2021 to 12% in 2025. Superannuation refers to compulsory savings on top of income for employees, which will increase the level of domestic savings in Australia and lower our savings-investment gap. This will reduce our need for international borrowing, lowering the stock of NFD and improving external stability. However, the increase in superannuation will increase labour costs, increase cost-push inflation and lower international competitiveness, worsening external stability. Overall, govt policies lack effectiveness in improving external stability with minimal changes to NFD sitting at 55-60% in the pat 5 years. 41) Outline two advantages of the flexible exchange rate system. (2) - Shock absorber decreased EG Currency appreciation LT increases international competitive of export increases eco growth - Better use of MP/ inflationary targeting by the RBA not pre-occupied with maintaining the currency A flexible exchange rate system is one that utilises the market forces of supply and demand and hence the price mechanism in the forex market to determine the value of the exchange rate. One advantage of the flexible exchange rate system is that it acts as a shock absorber/buffer in periods of volatile economic growth (as it moves to the new equilibrium position). For example, in a period of low growth, it would depreciate due to its low demand, which would then boost exports and growth. Another advantage is the fact that a flexible exchange rate system will provide a more realistic overview of the fundamentals of the economy (growth, inflation and u/e) as its price is determined by the demand for, and supply of the currency. 42) How have recent actions (2014- present) by the RBA affected the value of AUD. - Action/ intervention direct intervention decreases cash rate worsening of the IR differential- 2018, Aus dropped CR by 1.5% to 1.25%. while US was 2.5% - Effects on S/D of AUD decreases demand for AUD and increases supply of AUD (interest differential) - Effects on price- depreciation from June 2011 USD $1.10 to 2020-USD $0.7 The RBA has plaed an indirect role in affecting the value of the Australian Dollar through the changing of the cash rate through monetary policy, in reponse to sluggish ecnommic growth caused by unfavourable global conditions (trade war, contractionary fiscal policy etc), fro 2016-19 and most recently, COVID-19, the RBA conducted expansionary monetary policy throughout this period by decreasing the cash rate from 1.5% in 2015 to record 0.1% in November 2020. This corresponded with a depreciation of the AUD from approximately $0.8 USD in 2016 to a decade low of $0.59USD. This is due to the lower cash rate creating a negative interest rate differential compared to other economies, hence reducing capital inflows into Australia and reducing demand for the AUD. 43) Discuss the factors that influences the demand and supply of the AUD (5): - Demand is determined by people who wants to purchase AUS. o 1. Increased demand for Australian dollar increases demand for export appreciation US $1.10 peak in 2011 during mining boom o 2. Decreased demand for AUD decreases CR negative IR differential Lower FDI due to lower rate of return decreases demand depreciation depreciation from June 2011 USD $1.10 to 2020-USD $0.7 - Supply is made up by people who wants to sell the AUD o Decrease in CR AUs seeks greater return in foreign countries increases supply of AUD depreciation o Rise in overseas protection increase price of imports decrease import expenditure decrease supply in AUD in forex appreciation The value of the Australian dollar is determined by the interaction of the market forces of supply and demand of the AUD in the forex market. The supply of AUD is made up by Australian residents, and is influenced by firstly, the rate of domestic economic growth. As the Australian economy experiences growth, income levels will rise due to job creation and employment levels. This will encourage greater import spending, thereby increasing the supply of AUD in the forex market. Secondly, as the number of investment opportunities overseas increases, more domestic investors will seek to invest their capital in these foreign countries, hence increasing the supply of AUD in the forex market. The demand of AUD is made up by foreigners, and is influenced by international competitiveness of (or demand for) Australian exports. As Aus exports become more competitive, the demand for Aus exports and hence the AUD will increase. This occurred in 2020 as the demand for Australian iron ore and coal increased as a result of China’s infrastructure-led stimulus packages, causing an appreciation of the AUD from $0.59 in 2020 to $0.75 USD in July 2021. On the other hand, interest rate differentials can also influence the demand for AUD. As the cash rate of Australian increases (positive interest rate differential), foreign investors will seek to invest in Australia due to higher returns, increasing the supply of AUD in the forex market. 44) Describe two main groups affected by unemployment. (2) - Non-English speaking migrants language barriers decreases employability - Youth lack of skills and experience decreases demand for youth 45) Define deregulation Partial or complete removal of govt regulation restricting the operation of market forces, such as the removal of a price floor for spirits. 46) Describe two economic impacts of a high rate of unemployment. - Increases unemployment increases number of individuals requiring welfare payments increases govt exp reduce ability of govt to meet other economic objectives also increases tax burden on high income earners - Decreased eco growth decreases national income decreases consumption and AD. COVID stats- 7.4% u/e in 2020 -7% growth in June 2020. A high rate of unemployment will lead to increased tax burdens for taxpayers, as the government will need to finance its increased spending on transfer payments such as unemployment benefits, passing that burden to taxpayers. This was evident in the $89bn spent in JobKeeper in 2020. Another economic impact is a loss of human capital, as the economy is not operating at its most efficient and productive level, due to the presence of spare capacity, the economy will not be able to maximise level of AS and hence, long term economic growth. 47) Explain the relationship between AS and economic growth: - Increases AS LT growth - Increases productivity, international competitiveness increase productive capacity increases output increases real GDP Aggregate supply and economic growth have a directly proportional relationship, as an increase in AS will perpetuate long term economic growth. This is because increases in AS is a result of improvements in productivity, efficiency and competition, allowing the economy to operate at a higher capacity, and keep up with growing demand, thereby increasing output and hence, GDP and growth. 48) Account for the use of real GDP rather than nominal GDP when measuring changes in economic growth. (1) - Real GDP takes into account inflation, therefore be used to compare between countries and over time. Real GDP, as opposed to nominal GDP, accounts for the rate of inflation when calculating changes in economic growth. This allows the rate to be compared to different tie periods, or with different economies. 49) Discuss the policy mix used by the Aus govt to respond to a decrease economic growth (5) - Exp FP increase GE relative to previous year increases G increases AD o E.g $219 bn during COVID-19 in 2020-22 improved -7% growth in June 2020 to 3.5% sept 2020 o Limitation- increased GE worsening of budget outcome worsening external stability due to increased foreign borrowing (politically unpopular) - Exp MP decreased CR decreased S and increased C& I increased AD. Nov 2020- decreased CR to 0.1% from 0.25% o Limitation medium impact lag- 6-9 month Expansionary Monetary policy can be utilised by the RBA to address a decrease in economic growth, decreasing the cash rate, which impacts the economy through the channels of the transmission mechanism. This leads to a decrease in saving, whereas consumption and investment, both components of AD are increased, hence improving economic growth. This was evident through the reduction of the cash rate from 0.25% to 0.1% in November 2020, in response to the recession brought about by COVID-19. Similarly, expansionary fiscal policy can also be used to boost economic growth, which involves increasing levels of H from one year to the next. This injection into the economy, such as $500bn total injection in response to COVID bolstered AD through the multiplier effect, assisting Australia in rebounding from a -7% growth rate in June 2020 to 3.5% in the next quarter. Furthermore, microeconomic reform can be used to improve productivity, efficiency, and competition in the economy, thereby improving levels of AS and hence, perpetuating long term growth. Although limited by a 10–20-year impact lag, reforms such as the liberalisation of Australia’s trade have continued in assisting its growth by ensuring lower inflation due to greater competition, as well as improved allocative efficiency. 50) Outline the trend in income distribution for 2 groups in Australia. (2) - Recent migrants disparities in level of employment depending on language lack of transferable qualifications - Woman- whilst pay gap has narrowed from 18.5% in 2014 to 13.4% in 2020, on average- woman experience lower levels of Y in comparison to makes. Caused by historical discrimination, child rearing etc. Recent migrants have typically received lower levels of income in Australia, mainly as a result of disparities in level of employment. The unemployment rate for Australian citizens in Nov 2019 (pre pandemic) was recorded to be 4.7%, while this figure was 9.2% for recent migrants. This can be explained by a lack of transferable skills/ qualifications as well as discrimination. Furthermore, woman in the workforce have received lower levels of income compared to their male counterparts. While this has improved from 2014 to 2020, as the 18.5% pay-gap narrowed to 13.4%, woman still continue to experience lower levels of income due to fewer opportunities to acquire education, skills and qualifications as well as discrimination in the workforce. 51) Explain the impact of the labour market reforms in Australia on income distribution. (4) - PaTH creating apprenticeships and improving skill sets of youth improve DOI - Work Choices (2005) decentralisation of labour market and also removal of unfair dismissal laws decreased bargaining power for low Y earners worsen DOI - Fair Work Act 2009 strengthened safety net (Min wage, modern awards IONES improves DOI - Gini 2007-08 0.335 to 2011-12 0.320 Australian labour market reforms largely involve a transition from a centralised industrial relations system to a decentralised one, overall worsening the level of income distribution in Australia. This involved the establishment of the Workplace Relations in 1996, where collective agreements and individual agreements were introduced. Allowing employees to negotiate wage and working conditions between their employees individually, or as a group. This decentralisation process continued to Fair Work Australia (2009), which streamlined over 4300 awards to 133, as well as further encouraging enterprise bargaining in the workplace accompanied by the implementation of the Better Off Overall Test, which protected their working conditions/wages from being exploited by their employers. While it improved growth and unemployment levels, now that wages are tied to productivity rather than inflation, employees with low bargaining power, which were typically low-income earners will experience a deterioration of their real income. As they were not able to sustain income levels compared to rising inflation rates. Hence this worsened the distribution of income in Australia. 52) Outline the nature of one historical and one recent policy implemented by the Australian government to reduce protection barriers. (2) - 1988- industry statement acceleration of trade liberalisation- Tariff over 15% was decreased to 15%, excluding steel, PMV and TCF - Recent- CHAFTA 2015- 5% tariff on Chinese manufactured goods removed; 99% tariff free upon completion The 1988 industry statement involved the acceleration of trade liberalisation in Australia, as the government ensured all tariffs greater than 16% were lowered to 16%, targeting specifically the Textiles, Footware and Clothing industry. Similarly, the Australian government signed ChAFTA in 2015, as the 5% tariff on Chinese manufactured goods was abolished. as well as providing over 5000 working holiday visas to Chinese workers. 53) Describe the impact of global protectionist policies on Australian consumers and firms. (3) - Consumers Protectionist policies such as EUCAP subsidy of 20% of income decreases cost of production passed on as lower price for consumers in Australia higher purchasing power high standard if living. - Producers protection decreases the international competitiveness as Australia firms cannot compete with the lower price lower market share revenue Policies such as the EU Common Agricultural policy, which provides EU farmers with 20$ subsidy of their income, effectively reduces the international competitiveness of Australian agricultural exports, as Australian firms are unable to produce agricultural goods at such low costs, thereby reducing their market share, revenue and in turn, profitspotentially leading to closure. However, this may positively impact consumers as they are able to gain access to cheaper imports, improving their standard of living and hence, quality of life. 54) Discuss the impact of trade liberalisation in Australia on the quality of life for Australian residents. (3) - Reduction in trade barriers increase access to foreign goods and services at lower prices as they no longer face barriers. Designed to increase price of imports greater range of products - Trade liberalisation increases allocation of resources growth of efficient individual jobs creation in the LT - Can increase ST u/e (structural) as inefficient industries close- PMV: 50,000 jobs loss as the result of PMV closing down in 2015. - Degradation of the environment as foreign businesses enter domestic economy, they might exploit natural resources, especially in developing economies reduces quality of life. Trade liberalisation has brought multifaceted impacts on the quality of life for Australian residents. Firstly, the reduction/ removal of trade barriers by the Australian government has resulted in access to foreign imports at lower prices, as they no longer face barriers to trade such as tariffs that are designed to increase the price of these imports. Furthermore, they will also be able to benefit from a wider range of consumer choice as a greater variety of imports are able to enter the economy, thereby improving quality of life. However, trade liberalisation has also led to the closure of inefficient industries within Australia, namely the PMV industry in 2015 as over 50,000 experienced structural unemployment, as Australia could no longer compete with manufacturers in South East Asia. This negatively impacts the disposable income of residents, reducing their quality of life significantly. Liberalisation may lead to the exploitation of natural resources by foreign economies, leading to deterioration of the natural environment, bringing rise to environmental issues such as pollution and land degradation, severely impacting the quality of life in Australia. 55) Explain how changes in the cash rate impact general interest rates in the economy. (2) - DMO & transmission mechanism - An increases in the CR IR as banks aim to keep profit margin. Vice Versa A change in the cash rate impacts general interest rate and in turn, the economy through the transmission mechanism. An increase in the cash rate is passed onto consumer by banks as banks seek to maintain profit margins in the fact of higher borrowing costs. On the other hand, a decrease in the cash rate is passed onto consumers by banks as they seek to remain competitive, and to retain customers. 56) Explain how the RBA would respond to falling levels of aggregate demand in the economy. (3) - Expansionary MP- involves decreasing CR to stimulate AD. - Achieved through buying CGS in the overnight money market increases money supply downward pressure on CR lowers interest rate as banks moves to remain competitiveness. - Disincentivise saving, and encourages C+I, and increases AD (C+I+S+(X-M)). This is then furthered through the transmission mechanism, which includes: S-I; Cash flow; Asset price; exchange rate channel. The RBA will conduct expansionary MP in response to falling of AD in the economy. This would involve purchasing Commonwealth Government Securities from banks, thereby increasing the money supply and placing downward pressure on the cash rate. This would be passed onto consumers in the form of lower interest rates as banks wish to remain competitive, ultimately stimulating AD by encouraging borrowing for the purpose of consumption and investment, as well as discouraging savings due to lower returns. This will boost the level of AD in the economy as AD (eqn). 57) Describe the limitations of monetary policy in achieving Australia’s economic objectives. (5) - Liquidation trap: o As the CR reaches closer to 0 bound limit its effectiveness decreases, as consumers do not change spending/borrowing behaviour on such incremental changes. CR currently in 0.1%. - Time lag Impact VS implementation o There is a 6–18-month time lag from changes in CR to changes in AD. As consumers takes time to change behaviour o Necessitates pre-emptive MP that it will raise interest rates before inflation becomes a problem. The RBA monitors economic indicators each month to decide whether it needs to adjust interest rates - Blunt/ instrument o MP is a non-target policy, meaning it cannot target AD components Monetary policy faces an impact time lag of 6-19 months, meaning changes to the cash rate do not immediately impact the economy, as consumer sentiment takes time to change. This necessitates pre-emptive monetary policy, reducing the effectiveness of the RBA in achieving price stability (2-3%) and sustainable growth (3-4%). Furthermore, it is also limited by the liquidity trap- hence, as the cash rate approaches 0%, its effectiveness is diminishing, undermining its ability to stimulate the economy in times of recession, depicted by the inability to the current 0.1% cash rate in preventing a 07% decline in growth in 2020. Thirdly, MP is also considered to be a blunt instrument, being able to target specific component of aggregate demand as well as sectors of the economy that may potentially be hindering growth, or contributing to inflationary pressures. This is as different sectors of the economy have differing levels of interest rate sensitivity/ elasticity. Hence, a change in the cash rate will impact all components of aggregate demand, even if inflationary pressures are derived from one ponents, thereby limiting its ability to achieve its economic objectives. 58) Outline two arguments in favours of a more decentralised wage determination system. (2) - A decentralised system means wages becomes the outcome of productivity workforces is incentivised to increase productivity, output, skills and education through the phenomena of the incentive effect. - Flexibility of labour force during period of low growth, employers can negotiate lower wages instead of laying off. A more decentralised wage determination system incentivises the labour force to become highly skilled, more productive and mobile, as well as taking more risks through the incentive effect. This is because wages are now tied to productivity, rather than inflation. This will improve the AS of the economy, perpetuating long term economic growth. Furthermore, a more decentralised wage determination system will also lead to greater flexibility of the workforce, especially in periods of low growth, where employers can simply reduce working hours rather than dismissing workers, thereby supporting employment in the economy. 59) Account for the role of education, training and employment program in achieving Australia’s economic objectives. (4) - Ed, training, emp programs are implemented as part of FP, utilised to increase skills and improves human capital thereby achieving eco objectives of growth and unemployment. - PaTH (2016-17) $752m investment that combines subsidies and training requirement; this includes optional 4–12-week internship and a $1000 payment to employer for each intern, as well as $6500-$10,000 for hiring decreases u/e - 2019-20 $525m into ‘delivering skills for Today and Tomorrow’ package creates 80,000 apprenticeships, and the upskilling of the labour force, and promotes EG and employment (Can also improve DOI). Education, training and employment programs are implemented as part of fiscal policy, utilised by the govt to boost levels of skills and education levels in the economy, thereby achieving economic objectives such as full unemployment and an equitable distribution of income. The Prepare, Trial and Hire Program (PaTH) 2016-17 is a $752M training and employment program for youth, combining training obligations with incentives for employers. Under the policy, Jobseekers have the option to complete a 4–12-week internship placement, as well as an $1000 payment to employers for taking each intern. Employers are also provided with a wage subsidy of $6500-$10,000 for employing a participant of the program. Although the policy was designed to assist 120,000 youth, it assisted 60,000 in upskilling and finding employment, thereby contributing to the objective of full employment. Similarly, the 2019-20 $525M “delivering Skills for Today and Tomorrow” package involved the creation of over 80,000 apprenticeships to target skills shortages, providing unskilled workers with the training to secure a higher level of income, thereby supporting the movement towards a more equitable distribution of income. 60) Analyse the impact of Fair Work Australia in the distribution of income in Australia. (4) - 1- outline what FWA is/ element of FWA; 2- positive/ negative impact on distribution; 1- causality; - The Fair Work Australia (2009/10) is the current industrial relation system in Australia, and involves the establishment of the FWC etc. - It introduced minimum wage ($22.33) and National Employment Standard provides a minimum safety net for low-income earners, thus improving DOI o BOOT test protects low-income earners with low bargaining power, ensures they are not exploitered during negotiation. - However enterprise bargaining is supported by FWA, meaning higher income earners with a higher bargaining power experiences higher wage growth, in comparison to low income earners with low bargaining power. Fair Work Australia is the current industrial relations framework for the Australian labour market, based on a decentralised wage determination system, where wages are tied to productivity, rather than inflation. The Fair Work Act 2009 consists of 122 Modern awards, and encourages collective bargaining for enterprise agreements, where employees of a firm agree on wages and working conditions with their respective employer. The Fair Work Act provides a safety net for low-income earners that are not part of an award for a certain industry, consisting of the minimum wage of $20.33/hr- the highest in the world, as well as the National Employment Standard. Hence, the Fair Work Act marginally improves the distribution of income in Australia. However, as low-income earners tend to have low bargaining power, their ability to negotiate higher wages are undermined, whereas high income earners often have their incomes indexed to inflation, effectively maintaining their real incomes. Therefore, overall Fair Work can be seen to have a negative impact on the distribution of income. 61) What is the structure of Australia’s BoP? (2) - BoP is based on a double entry system of credit/debits. Consists of 2 major components- the CA and KAFA. Under a floating exchange rate. These two accounts equal to 0 - The current account records transactions involving trade of goods or services recorded by the BoGS, and income flows in NPY and NSY. While The KAFA records transactions involving financial flows, capital flows, investment, and forex etc. The balance of Payments of Australia is based on a double entry system of credits and debits, and consists of two major components- the CA and KAFA. The CA records transactions involving trade of G/S as well as earned and unearned income flows. However, the KAFA records transactions involving financial and capital flows. The CA and KAFA together, with the net error emissions, offset each other to equal 0. 62) Account for recent trends in the direction of Australia’s trade and financial flows. (4) - Trade: increased trade flow to China due to complementary nature. Shifted away from EU, Japan and USA. o Export to China have increased from 5.75% in 2000 to 39.1% in 2020CHAFTA - Financial Flow: financial flows from US, UK and Belgium (increased investment by 10% growth into AUs last 5 yrs) & increased investment from southeast Asia through AANZFTAs The direction of Australia’s trade has been highly concentrated towards China over the last 2 decades, mainly due to their complementary relationship, as China relies on Australia’s iron ore and coal exports for infrastructure projects, while Australia relies on their demand for export income. In fact, exports to China has increased from 5.74% of total exports in 20000 to 39.1% in 2019, through the signing of ChAFTA etc. On the other hand, Australia’s inward financial flows are mainly from the US, UK and Belgium respectively, with Belgium recording a 10% growth in its investment into Australia in the last 5 years. However, Australia has also experienced an increase inward FDI from South-East Asian economies in recent years due to their growing relations with Australia through trade agreements such as the AANFTA. 63) Analyse the impacts of changes in international borrowing and foreign investment on Australia’s BoP. (4) - 2- illustrating positive/ negative impacts of IB on BOP; 2- illustrating positive/ negative impacts of IB on BOP - Distinguish between IB and FI IB refers to foreign debt undertaken by an economy. Whereas foreign investment refers to foreign equity in Australia. - As Aus continues to increase international borrowing to finance govt deficit etc. KAFA inflows will increase. However, the NPY account of the BoP will experience greater debit as foreign debt has interest repayments. - A similar process occurs for foreign investments- increases KAFA, NPY debits in the form of profit/ dividend payment will increase CAD- worsening BoP (MIB). International borrowing refers to foreign debt undertaken by an economy, whereas foreign investment refers to foreign equity, or the foreign purchase of Australia’s assets. As Australia continues to undertake further international borrowing to finance government deficit etc, KAFA inflows will increase. However, in turn, the net primary income account of the CA will experience greater debits as foreign debt incurs interest repayments that must be paid. This will lead to a sustained NPY deficit and hence, a worsened CAD. The same applies for foreign investment in the form of equity/shares, which will also contribute to higher KAFA inflows through FDI and portfolio investment. This will also lead to greater NPY debits in the form of dividends/ profits, sustaining a greater NPY deficit and hence, CAP. 64) Outline the term award within the context of Australia’s industrial relations framework. (2) - A legally binding set of minimum conditions/ standards that all employees in a specific industry are entitled to. - In Australia, 10 NES and 10 industry specific standards. All under FWA framework. Awards within the context of Australia’s industrial relations framework refers to a legal set of minimum conditions/ standards and wages that employees in a specific industry are entitled to. However, if employees are not covered by an award, they are entitled to 10 National Employment Standards and the minimum wage, which acts as a safety net for these workers. 65) What is the purpose of the national employment standards. (3) - Define 10 minimum employment entitlements provided to all employees. - Explaining the purpose ensure a safety net for all individuals and maintains a reasonable standard for working conditions and quality of life. - E.g. minimum working hours of 38 hours and 4 weeks of paid annual leave. National employment standards refers to a set of 10 minimum employment entitlements that have to be provided to all employees in the Australian workforce. These include entitlements related to maximum weekly hours, parental, annual and long service leave etc. This, alongside the minimum wage under the Fair Work Act 2009 acts as the safety net for employees, enduring a reasonable standard of quality of life. 66) Account for recent trend in Australia’s balance of payments: - 44 years of CAD that moved into a surplus in 2019. This has come from a surge in LNG exports to China, improving the BoGS balance. As well as increase in national savings, where NPY deficit improved from -3% of GDP on average to -0.3%. 67) Evaluate the effectiveness of recent labour market policies in achieving their objectives. (5) Labour market policies in Australia are implemented through fiscal policy, and are often target to improve employment and the distribution of income in Australia. The 2019-20 $525M “Delivering Skills for Today and Tomorrow” package involved the creation of over 80,000 apprenticeships to target skill shortages, providing unskilled workers with the training to boost the level of employment in the economy. This policy has been relatively effective, with the unemployment averaging at 5.2% from 2019-20, despite slowing economic growth in the Australian economy. Furthermore, the $4bn JobMaker Hiring Credit in the 2020-21 budget has been implemented in response to soaring levels of unemployment during the COVID_19 pandemic. This involves a maximum 12-month payment of up to $200 a week to employers who hire those on JobSeeker or Youth Allowance aged 16-35. However, although estimated to assist over 450,000 young jobseekers over a 4 year period, the JobMaker credit has been ineffective with less than 1000 jobs been subsidised by March 2021. This was a result of a lack of eligibility, as a large proportion of the unemployed fall outside the 16-35 age bracket. Hence, this policy has been ineffective thus far in achieving greater employment levels in the economy. 68) Account for the recent trends in Australia’s balance of payments. (2) Australia’s current account, despite a 44-year trend of sustaining a deficit, has transitioned into a surplus as of the June qtr 2019. This was driven by a record BoGS surplus of $19.9bn, driven by China’s demand for Australia’s coal and iron has increased as a result of its construction-focused stimulus strategies. The CAS has been maintained. 69) Define deregulation Partial or complete removal of govt regulation restricting the operation of market forces, such as the removal of a price floor for spirits. 70) Assess the validity of the Pitchford thesis for Australia’s balance of payments. (3) - Pitchford thesis is based on the consulting adult’s theorem, which suggests that a sustained CAD is not detrimental to an economy but rather beneficial if driver by the private sector as individuals invest in areas to improve growth such that they generate profits. - Despite CAD, Australia sustained 29 years of consecutive growth, whilst a CAD may lead to a debt trap cycle, Australia has maintained a triple A credit rating, and thus the Pitchford thesis is valid with regard to the Australian economy. The Pitchford thesis, based on the Consenting Adults Theorem, suggests that a sustained CAD is not detrimental to the economy but rather, could be beneficial if it is the result of private sector borrowing. This is because the private sector is assumed to take calculated risks and is profit motivated, utilising foreign capital to benefit the aggregate supply and hence, long term economic growth of the economy. In the context of Australia’s balance of payments, the Pitchford thesis is seen to be mostly valid, as Australia has successfully achieved 28 years of economic growth, as well as trends of price stability and full employment despite sustaining a CAD of 3-6% of GDP for 44 years. However, one critique of this theory would be the onset of the GFC, where a crisis in private sector borrowing contributed to a global recession and in turn, a slowdown in Australia’s economy. 71) Discuss the effectiveness of recent fiscal policy in achieving external stability: - +ve: Fiscal consolidation movement towards a surplus to pay off debt, between 2015 to 2020, aim of decreasing net public foreign debt to 0% by 2030 improves external stability - -ve: adoption of high aggressive fiscal injections in response to COVID increases foreign borrowing, and budget deficit of $106bn increased NFD to 40% of GDP, and worsens GDP. - CAD estimated to be 2.25% of GDP in 2023/24. Fiscal policy has been relatively ineffective in achieving the external stability for Australia in recent years. In terms of reducing NFD as a % of GDP, the government has adopted the process of fiscal consolidation since 2011. This involves reducing levels of G and increasing T to reduce government debt, with the goal of achieving 0% net debt by 2030. Howeveer, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the government has invested over $250bn for economic stimulus, driving the budget outcome to a deficit of $213.7bn or 11% of GDP in 2020-21. This is estimated to increase net debt to 34.2% of GDP in 2022, which will worsen the NPY deficit and hence, negatively impact the current account as a % of GDP, worsening external stability in the long term. However, Fiscal policy has also positively impacted external stability through policies such as the Instant Asset Write-off Scheme, which allows 99% of businesses to claim deductions for the total cost of assets in 2020-21. This has positively impacted the level of investment in the economy, stimulating AD and AS and hence, improving international competitiveness of Australian businesses. Thereby supporting greater BoGS performances and hence, a sustained CAS- improving external stability. 72) Why is monetary policy the best suited macroeconomic policy to manage inflation? - Government doesn’t specifically target inflation, - Explain the mechanism of macroeconomic policy through cash rates. MP, which utilises the cash rate and market interest rates, is best suited to manage inflation due to the fact that these mechanisms can directly manipulate the availability of credits in the economy by altering borrower and lender behaviour, hence having a profound impact on the level of inflation in Australia. It is superior to Fiscal Policy as contractionary FP to control inflation will involve higher rates of taxes or reduced spending, which will contribute to worsened standard of living. 73) Explain the effectiveness of government policy is limited by global influences. (2) - As Australia is an open-economy/ highly integrated it is influenced by financial contagions. EG. During COVID, Australia experienced decrease in economic growth, resultantly, macroeconomic policy consequently seeks to improve growth (counter cyclical) this reduces the government’s ability to achieve other objectives. The effectiveness of government policy in particular, fiscal policy can be limited by global influences. This is because the global economy, through financial contagion can impact domestic economy in the form of lower economic growth and unemployment. As seen in the GFC or COVID-19. In response to these downturns, the government are often influenced to compromise the achievement of other objectives such as external stability. This was seen in 2020, where the govt used a total of $507bn stimulus, reaching a 40% debt as % of GDP, thereby contributing to worsened external stability as NPY debits in the form of interest will increase. 74) Explain how fiscal policy can achieve sustainable economic growth. (2) - Sustainable economic growth is growth rate of 3-4% in the medium to long term. - Expansionary FP to increase AD (multiplier effect); Infrastructure development plan Fiscal policy is a macroeconomic tool designed to influence levels of aggregate demand to achieve economic objectives such as sustainable economic growth of 3-4%. It can bolster growth by taking an expansionary stance, which involves increasing govt expenditure and reducing taxes to boost growth. On the other hand, it can also slow down excessive growth through a contractionary stance, reducing govt expenditure and increasing taxes. Its injections into the economy are amplified through the multiplier effect. 75) - Contractionary monetary policy decreases inflation, explain links; This will decrease growth and increase unemployment. To increase growth to 3-4%, expansionary fiscal policies should be implemented this increases growth and decrease unemployment Little targeting of distribution of income- eg. Microeconomic reforms (training programs) should be implemented to improve DOI increases growth in the LT; decreases cost-push inflation and unemployment. A suitable policy mix would involve implementing contractionary MP to reduce levels of inflation, which currently sits at 4.2, and hence outside the target range of 2-3%. This will be effective as the higher cash rate will discourage borrowing for the purpose of consumption or investment, thereby lowering inflation. However, despite contractionary MP, expansionary FP should be implemented to boost levels of economic growth which also sits outside the range of 3-4% at 2.4%. Through increased govt expenditure which will increase AD through the multiplier effect. This is because MP is deigned to solely target inflation, which FP faces the task of managing greater income stability. Furthermore, to target the high Gini Coefficient of 0.405, and the unemployment rate of 6.7%, the govt should implement microeconomic reforms such as training or education policies in order to up-skill workers and hence, boosting their employability and income, thereby addressing the unequal distribution of income in the economy. 76) Outline the term ‘The tragedy of the Commons’. (2) Refers to the situation where because some goods do not have clearly defined property rights, individuals act in their interests leading to exploitation and potentially depletion. This occurs due to market failure, ie. Price mechanism does not account for social costs. 77) Distinguish between public, private and merit goods. (2) Public goods refers to goods that produce positive externalities in the economy, and are often under-supplied in the economy. However, public goods are those that are non-excludable and non-rival in nature. Often provided by the government as a result. Private goods are those that have clearly defined property rights and are thereby excludable and rival in nature. 78) Explain why individual economies little economic incentives have to act independently to improve ecological sustainability. (4) - Difficult to change to sustainable methods, and the problem requires collective action. - A movement towards ecologically sustainable practices at the cost of economic gains, and may reduce international competitiveness. Govt policies such as the introduction of the ‘Fuel Quality Standards Act’ in 2000 has been effective in achieving ecologically sustainable development in Australia. The policy involved the ban on leaded petrol by 2002, leadig to a reduction in air lead levels by 50% in 2 years. Similarly, the Carbon tax in 2014 involved charging $23/tonnes on busiensses emitting over 250,000 tonnes of CO2 annually. This resulted in a reduction in emissions by 4% from 201214, and generated $6.6bn revenue for the government. However, these policies have often been limited by conflicts with other economic objectives such as growth, as well as political constraints, this was evident with the carbon tax, which was repealed in 2014 due to concerns related to inflation (electricity price increased by ~10%) and higher costs of production for major businesses. 79) What is the role of automatic stabilisers in the government’s policy mix. (2) - Discretionary component of fiscal policy, including transfer payments and the progressive taxation system. Used as a countercyclical tool to smooth out the fluctuations of the business cycle. Automatic stabilisers are a class of non-discretionary fiscal policy tools that respond directly to changes in the economy without govt intervention. Stabilisers such as welfare payments help to increase consumption during periods where unemployment is rising, thereby stabilising economic growth in the economy and acting in a countercyclical manner. 80) Analyse the impacts on the economy of a government financing a budget deficit through private sector borrowing. (3) - Sale CGS in domestic market decreases money supply, leading to the crowding out effect- where the increase in IR would decrease private investment and ultimately decreases AD. - On the other hand, the crowding in effect may occur, which is where government financing a deficit and subsequently stimulating growth through increase in investor confidence (people have a positive outlook) increases investment and AD. When the govt finances a budget deficit through the sale of govt bonds in the domestic market, the total monetary supply is reduced- decreasing access to capital and driving up prices in the form of interest rates. This crowding out effect may reduce access to debt as higher prices disincentive firms and consumers, leading to a reduction in borrowing and correlated investment or consumption. Such a fall in the components of AD will lower economic growth. However, investment in the domestic economy may also lead to the “crowding out effect” where govt spending incentivises private incensement in the areas of govt spending, thereby increasing AD and economic growth. 81) Account for recent (2014 onwards) trends in the Australian govt’s fiscal policy stance and explain its impact on Australia’s external stability. Between 2014 and beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the govt maintained a continuous program of fiscal consolidation and a generally contractionary fiscal stance. This was due to the liberal party’s understanding of the ‘debt and deficit’ crisis, where they aimed to reduce the amount of public debt. In terms of external stability, this reduced net foreign debt as a % of GDP as the rate of public debt per GDP stabilised at 23% between 2015 and 2019. However, due to the recent COVID-19 pandemic, public debt has ballooned from 24% of GDP to 32% between 2019-20. This increase in public debt will worsen NFD and will lead to greater servicing costs, creating outflows on our NPY and therefore a worsened CAD as a % of GDP. 82) Outline the long run impact of Australia’s trade liberalisation policies on household. (2) - Through trade and nationals specialising the volume and variety of G&S available increases, this ultimately increases the utility and living standards of the society. - Competition reallocates resources to more efficient industries, which in the long term increase demand for labour decreases unemployment. The removal of barriers to free trade or trade liberalisation will help to reduce the costs of imports, reducing imported inflation and therefore increasing the purchasing power of Australian households. Moreover, in the long tern the increasing prevalence of efficient industries will increase GDP, and as employment is a derived demand, households should see greater access to employment. 83) Describe the domestic economic impacts of one multilateral agreement that Australia is Party to. (3) - CP-TPP- signed in 2018, representing 22% of Australia’s total trade volume. Covered 98% of tariff reduction for Australia’s agriculture export, and Japan agreed to accept an additional 6000 tonnes of rice per year. - This would significantly increase the demand for Australian agriculture product as a decrease in tarif level increases its international competitiveness. Translating to an increase in demand for Australian export ultimately decrease the rate of unemployment as labour is a derived demand. - Eventually, CP-TPP is estimated to contribute to $15.4bn to the Australian economy by 2030, representing an potential increase in overall improvement in living standards. However, a reduction in tariff levels on foreign exports may also result in short term structural unemployment if Australia’s companies lacks competitiveness Australia’s membership of ANZ-ASEAN is an important Multilateral agreement that links Australia and New Zealand to the bulk of Southeast Asia. This benefits Australia in terms of commodities and services exports to economies reliant on iron ore and other raw materials. It further benefits Australia through lower import costs of manufacturer consumer goods in which these economies specialise, reducing imported inflation and benefiting households. - 84) Outline the rationale for trade liberalisation and discuss the impacts of a quota on certain imported goods on the domestic economy (5) - The rationale behind trade liberalisation follows Ricardo's theory of competitive advantage where individual economies specialise in the production of what they have the lowest opportunity cost in and trade with other nations in order to maximise allocative efficiency with the world's limited resources. - An import quota is a protectionist policy that limits the quantity of imports into the domestic market, the higher the quota, the more goods allowed in. A lower import quota will benefit the domestic economy as domestic suppliers are guaranteed some market share, thus protecting domestic employment. However import quotas can worsen the overall quality of life as consumers are forced to purchase more expensive goods and services as imports are blocked, thus negatively affecting the domestic economy. - Moreover, the decrease in competition arising from increased import quotas can also result in excess inflation which can distort economic decision making, a negative effect on the domestic economy. Trade liberalisation, or the removal of artificial barriers to free trade is based on the principle of comparative advantage, whereby certain economies may have a specific advantage or ability to produce a certain g/s in a more efficient manner. By removing trade barriers, economies are able to specialise in areas that they are most efficient, such as Australia’s specialisation in commodities due to the significant resource endowments. A quota, on the other hand, is a protectionist policy that creates a numerical limit on the importation of a certain g/s. this may benefits an economies infant industry by helping to reduce the market share of foreign competitors, thereby allowing new companies to compete and reach economies of scale. However, a quota also reduces the supply of certain imports in an economy, driving up the scarcity of these products and increasing price. Overall, this may lead to a rise in demand-pull inflation, reducing purchasing, 85) Describe the rationale for regulating industries. (2) - Avoid market failure/ reduce negative externalities - Maintain workplace standards economic, social, political rights. eg. Minimum wage. Regulating industries refers to the imposition of government controls on the free operation of the market mechanism. This is mostly done to avoid the negative externalities created by market failure where the market is unable to accurately account for the social costs of certain actions- thus creating unintended negative consequences for society. therefore the govt regulates the market to reduce these consequences, such a air and water pollution. 86) Outline the main changes that were made during the deregulation of Australia’s financial market in the 1980s. (3) - Floating of the AUD - Introduction of 16 foreign banks - Adoption of market-based interest rates - Increase prudential supervision Three main changes occurred during the deregulation of Australia’s financial market. Firstly, the government floated the Australian dollar, allowing the exchange rate to be determined by market forces. Secondly, the govt ended the monopoly of domestic banks by allowing 16 foreign banks to operate in the Australian economy. Finally, the govt increased prudential supervision through the creation of specific departments in charge or holding banks to guidelines around risk. 87) Explain the effects of microeconomic reforms on two macroeconomic indicators. (4) - 2- identifying the effect of TWO macro indicators (unemployment, inflation etc) - 2- explaining the effects The deregulation of Australia’s banking system involved the removal of a domestic monopoly on monetary supply through the issuance of licence to 16 foreign banks. This microeconomic reform greatly reduced the cost of capital and therefore acted as a large bolster to the Australian economy. Firstly, the decreased cost fo capital helped to increase rates of borrowing which drove an increase in consumption and investment increasing AD and therefore economic growth. Secondly, the decreased cost of capital reduced cost-push inflation as firms spent much less repaying servicing costs. This also helped to drive down total inflation in the economy. 88) Outline the purpose and characteristics of the HDI. (2) - HDI measures economic development, calculated between 0 (no development) and 1 (maximum development) - Characteristics: life expectancy at birth; GNI per capita; educational attainment (mean years of schooling); The HDI is a standardised indicator that acts as a global measure of standards of living and quality of life. The number, between 0 and 1, is based on three measures, GNI per capita, life expectancy at birth and mean years of schooling. 89) Distinguish between developing economies and emerging economies. (2) - Developing economies have low industrialisation, development, and low GDP, may feature political instability. E.g. Uganda. - Emerging economies have high GDP, increasing economic growth and improving level of development. E.g. China. A developing economy refers to an economy with low levels of industrialisation, limited economic infrastructure and generally low GDP per capita. While an emerging economy often refers to a nation with high level of GDP growth, high levels of industrialisation and rapidly improving economic infrastructure. Many times a developing economy will also have volatile economic growth and political instability, while an emerging economy will have high economic growth and relative political stability. 90) Analyse the strategies used by an economy OTHER than Australia to respond to changes in - - - the international business cycle (5) Growing adoption of David Ricado’s 1817 comparative advantage model led to a significant increase in economies adopting free trade policies, pursuing trade liberalisation, particularly throughout the 20th Century. China responded to the growing liberalisation of nations amidst the 1970s and 80s by enacting the Open Door Policy and establishing SEZs in coastal areas to expand export markets and improve trade with Hong Kong and Shanghai. The enablement of low-cost trade culminated in high demand for Chinese exports, contributing greatly to the 10%+ average real GDP growth on average during the 2000’s. In order to combat the rapid deceleration of global growth during the GFC, China implemented expansionary monetary policy, decreasing interest rates 5 times from September 2008, reducing the cost of borrowing, increasing consumption, and hence increasing aggregate demand (C+I+G+X-M) to stimulate economic activity. Additionally, China implemented expansionary discretionary fiscal policy, providing stimulus packages worth around US$600bn injected into the economy, effectively increasing consumption and aggregate demand, and restoring economic growth, evidenced as economic growth increased to 10.3% in 2010. As a result of a slowdown in global supply chains, and a severe downswing in the IBC from forced lockdowns surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic, China experienced a severe decline in economic growth of -6.8% in the first quarter of 2020. In response, the Chinese government implemented heavily expansionary fiscal policy, whereby an approximate total of USD $1.4 trillion would be injected into the economy on a digital infrastructure public spending program, as well as double down on its Made in China 2025 and China Standards 2035 initiatives. The injection into the economy boosts up the government expenditure component of aggregate demand, as well as allowing for increased employment opportunities, placing upwards pressure on consumption and investment. As such, the infrastructure stimulus packages have contributed to China’s bouncing back from the one negative quarter of growth and not experience a technical recession, seeing growth rapidly increase to 15.3% upon implementation. In recent years, the Chinese govt has implemented an increasingly aggressive stance in its response to the international business cycle. In the last 30 years the govt implemented microeconomic reform in the from of SEZ, which allowed for an attachment to the international business cycle through increased TNC investment. Furthermore, in recent years, the govt has adapted expansionary fiscal policy in order to respond to the downturns in economic growth and exports created by the GFC and most recently COVID-19. Finally, the govt has implemented the microeconomic one belt one road scheme in order to connect to the rest of the global economy- responding to the recent rise in protectionist policies and slowdown in the west. 91) Outline two structural causes of Australia’s current account deficit. (2) - S-I gap - Narrow export base Australia’s long tern CAD is in part the result of the savings and investment gap, where national savings are insufficient to meet domestic demand for capital. Leading to demand for foreign capital that is later repaid as an outflow on the NPY. Secondly, Australia lacks international competitiveness in producing manufactured goods (i.e. consumer goods). This results in large demand for foreign imports, thereby resulting in worsened BoGS and CA. 92) Describe the impact of a high CAD on a country’s credit rating, and hence its rate of economic growth. (3) - Impact of high CAD on credit rating- decrease the credit rating. - Impact of CAD/ decreased credit rating on growth representative of greater risk involved in investing/ lending money to a country decreases investors’ confidence decreases I, AD then eco growth A high CAD is often evidence of high amounts of debt and related outflows in a nation’s economic transactions. If a CAD gets too severe, international rating agencies may downgrade a nation’s credit rating, which acts as a measure of a country’s ability to repay debt. If a credit rating gets downgraded, international investors and banks may see investment or loans to the country as riskier, increasing interest rates to offset risk, and therefore increasing the price of capital. This would lower the desire to borrow funds, lowering consumption and investment and therefore lowering AD and economic growth. 93) Outline the structure of Australia’s balance of payments. (2) - Two main accounts CA & KAFA. CA=KAFA - Definition of each o CA is BOGS + NPY+ NSY non reversible transactions o KAFA is KA +FA, reversible transactions Australia’s BOP acts as a measure of the transactions into the out of an economy in two main accounts. Firstly, the CA is a measure of tangible, non-reversible transactions while the capital and financial account is a measure of intangible reversible transactions. For exampleinvestment into Australia. 94) Describe the role of the RBA in influencing external stability. (3) - Relevance/ Aim does not directly influence external stability have an indirect impact. - Positive price stability (low 2-3% inflation) promotes international competitiveness improved BoGS and CAD as a % of GDP. - Negative increase IR positive IR differential attracts FDI increases servicing costs, which worsens net foreign debt as a % of GDP. While the RBA doesn’t specifically focus on improving external stability, their important role in influencing inflation and unemployment can have corollary effects on external stability. Firstly, the RBA benefits external stability by keeping inflation low and stable between 2-3%, which keeps export prices from rising, maintaining international competitiveness and benefitting the BoGS, Alternatively, if the RBA increases interest rates they might increase foreign investment into Australia, thereby creating greater inflows on the KAFA, worsening NPY outflows and the CAD. 95) Explain 2 limitations of fiscal policy in achieving Australian govt economic objectives. (2) - Political constraints (carbon tax) - Time lag (medium implementation lag) slow to respond - Global influences (COVID-growth) Fiscal policy is generally limited by political constraints, whereby a government may be unable to implement effective fiscal policy that achieve objectives because they have alternative political objectives. Secondly, fiscal policy is limited by a 1year implementation time in between yearly budgets- which slows down immediate responses to economic scenarios. 96) Discuss two impacts of running a budget deficit in a closed economy. (4) Running a budget deficit, which refers to govt spending greater than taxation revenue in a closed economy without access to foreign markets and capital has a variety of impacts. Firstly, a budget deficit might accompany an increase in govt spending or consumption from lower tax rates thereby increasing AD and economic growth. These impacts are amplified by the lack of ability for funds to leave the economy through imports or other outflows (since its closed it doesn’t have access to the international market). Secondly, financing a budget deficit without access to foreign debt may lead to the crowding out effect where the govt reduces the domestic monetary supply, thereby increasing interest rates. In doing so the govt will reduce borrowing and related consumption, lower AD and economic growth. 97) Outline two policies from the recent budget, and assess their likely impact on Australia’s economic performance. (4) The most recent 2021/2022 budget has focused on increasing economic growth following the COVID-19 pandemic. Firstly, the govt has removed restrictions on superannuation, allowing all workers to be paid super. This will reduce the savings and investment gap thereby slowing reducing external stability pressure from increasing debits on the NPY component of CA, which allows higher level of investment- thus promoting aggregate supply and related economic growth. Secondly, the $15.2bn additional investment into 10 yr $110bn infrastructure scheme acts as a typical injection into AD where govt spending will shift AD to the right, increasing economic growth. Moreover, the supply improvements occurring due to infrastructure improvement will help AS and create long term economic growth. 98) Describe the main source of wealth in Australia. - Property holdings (houses and household contents) - Financial assets (shares, bank, deposits etc) - Superannuation 99) Explain why the distribution of wealth is more unequal than that of income. (2) Wealth, which refers to the monetary value of assets held at a point in time, is often more unequal than income since it is accumulated across a long period of time, and most often accumulated by those with a high income. This leads to those with higher incomes creating long term wealth as well as older citizens having more time to accumulate greater wealth. 1) Analyse the reasons why globalisation has resulted in increased inequality within countries, but has to some extent decreased inequality between countries. (5) Globalisation, which refers to the increased integration of economies and economic institutions has generally led to a decrease in global inequality. This has largely occurred as the result of developing and emerging economies specialising in certain industries such as manufacturing. In doing so they have used increase trade revenue from developed nations to increase national DGP and decrease global gaps. However, this improvement in national revenue has almost entirely occurred in areas with significant exposure to foreign economies such as those in coastal regions. For example, in China the eastern seaboard has become extremely wealthy due to large global connections and ports in places like Shenzhen while the rural interior of the nation has largely missed out, creating national inequality. 2) Explain two limitations of monetary policy in achieving the economic objectives. (2) - Medium impact lag- 6-18 month to influence economic activity - Blunt instrument can’t target specific components of AD - Has a 0 limit bound/ liquidity trap MP is generally limited as a blunt tool, whereby changes in the cash rate are unable to directly impact the economy as it relies on consumers and firms to take out increased debt and spend it in the economy to create change. Secondly, this particular issue also leads to an impact time lag where changes in the cash rate requires the transmission mechanism to be effective, creating a long term delay in MP ability to impact the economy at a point in term. 3) Explain, using a diagram, how the RBA manipulates the money supply to influence interest rates in the domestic economy. (4) Through the cash rate corridor, the RBA is able to set the cash rate target in between the rate at which they loan out and deposit funds. This takes effect in the domestic money market where the RBA sells or buys Commonwealth Government Securities, which changes the supply of cash in the economy. A greater supply of cash will lower the cash rate and hence interest rates of banks as they can lower their prices due to lower input costs, 4) Analyse the effects of falling interest rates on economic growth and the unemployment rate, assuming that the economy is operating at full employment. (4) A decrease in interest rates allows for an increase in borrowing from both firms and consumer as debt falls in price. Overall, this increases consumption and investment, driving an increase in AD thereby allowing for an increase in economic growth. However, falling interest rates also increase rates of import consumption, driving a decrease in net export and therefore a fall in AD. In terms of unemployment, increased AD tends to increase the derived demand for employment thereby decreasing the unemployment. But as the economy is operating at full employment (i.e. there is no cyclical unemployment), economic growth would only increase inflation without having any effect on decreasing unemployment as there is no excess capacity for the economy to operate (i.e. this relationship can be illustrated by the Philips curve). 5) Outline the impact of inflation on Australia’s trade and investment flows (2) - Increased domestic inflation decreases international competitiveness decreases exports and worsens the trade flows - High inflation (above 2-3%) increases uncertainty around prices decreases investor confidence and investment flows. Alternatively, if there is low and sustained inflation, then investor confidence increases Inflation refers to an increase in domestic prices, which increases the price of exports for foreigners. This reduces a nations’ international competitiveness, thereby decreasing trade outflows. While inflation tends to also increase investment inflows as foreign investors tries to take advantage of higher prices and greater returns. 6) Describe the impact of high inflation rates on the distribution of income and wealth within the economy. (2) High rates of inflation tend to worsen distribution of incomes as it worsens real income for those on fixed wages, which are disproportionately poorer compared to high income individuals who often have wages fixed to inflation. Moreover, inflation worsens the distribution of wealth as it drives up the price of assets which are almost entirely held by high income individual. 7) Analyse the impacts of a sustained period of low inflation on Australia’s economic performance. (3) - Removes volatility in prices- which may distort investor confidence and increases income (particularly for LT purposes of improving productive capacity) o //Or// increases international competitiveness of exports improves ext. stab - Low inflation bears no incentive to bring forward consumption people delay consumption decreases AD and short term economic growth worsens eco performance. A sustained period of low inflation may benefit the economy as it allows the govt to implement expansionary economic policy without fear of creating undue inflationary pressure. On the other hand, low inflation over a long period of time will likely to reduce consumption as people delay psending due to a lack of significant incentive to consume. 8) Distinguish between a ‘clean’ and ‘dirty’ float. (2) A clean float refers to when a central bank allows an exchange rate to be determined entirely by the forces of supply and demand. Alternatively, a dirty float differs where the central bank allows the exchange rate to be largely determined by supply and demand but occasionally intervenes in the market to change the exchange rate. 9) With example, explain two disadvantages of the floating exchange rate system. (3) A floating exchange rate can increase he volatility of a floating exchange rate as it can be based on foreigner’s perception of the domestic economy or attitude towards specific political events. Hence- leads to distorted economic decision-making people lack certainty in the price of future exchange rates. This can be evident in 2009-10, where the AUD lost 1/3 of its value due to the outbreak of GFC, then appreciating to USD$1.10 in 2011- reflecting the high level of volatility for international investors. Furthermore, the floating exchange rate can result in financial risks for investors, therefore firms allocate substantial resources to make predictions for exchange rate movements. This represents the opportunity costs of higher volume of investment and AD, leading to potentially lower economic growth. 10) Discuss the impact of as sustained depreciation in the Australian dollar on the balance of payments and economic growth in Australia. (5) A depreciation of the AUD has various effects on all areas of the BoP and is generally beneficial for economic growth. Firstly, in terms of CA a depreciation lowers the price of Australian exports, increasing its international competitiveness and export revenue- thus improving the BoGS. Secondly, due to the valuation effect, a depreciation might worsen the net primary income account as foreign debt becomes more expensive in the face of a weaker AUD. While however, this effect is minimal as 95% of Australia’s debt is denoted in AUD terms. in terms of KAFA, a depreciation makes it cheaper for foreigners to invest in Australia, thereby allowing for an increase in credits on the KAFA, while also increasing the financial obligations of Australia, hence worsening NPY component of CA. Finally, an improvement in both exports and investment helps to increase AD, thereby creating an improvement in economic growth which may be offset in the future by increasing servicing costs due to foreign investment. 11) Outline two of the national employment standards in the Australian labour market. (2) - Annual leave of 4 weeks for annual leave (FT); PT- on a pro rata basis The national employment standards acts as a baseline set of requirement for all employees has a variety of protection. One NES includes stipulating the maximum weekly working hours of 38. Another NES includes the right to annual leave. Full time and part time workers are entitled to 4 weeks of annual leave based on their ordinary hours of work. 12) Explain the impacts of a centralised wage determination system on the level of economic activity. (3) A centralised labour determination system refers to a market where the govt maintains a significant role in deciding wages and standards for employees across the economy. In the short term this improves the level of economic activity as it benefits the lower income earners (i.e. who has a higher MPC), and thus increases AD and economic growth. However. since wages were determination by the govt rather than productivity, the centralised labour system limited aggregate supply and therefore constrains long term economic growth. 13) Describe a situation in which Fair Work Australia will resolve an industrial dispute and evaluate the effectiveness of Fair Work Australia in resolving such disputes. (5) As part of the Fair Work act 2009, the government established the fair work tribunal in order to resolve industrial disputes and issues between employers and employees. One scenario in which this might occur is when an employer fails to fulfill the NES. Whereafter an employee might complain to the Fair Work tribunal to have a minimum wage paid or annual leave given through the process of negotiation; arbitration; mediation. Generally, the FWA is somewhat able to limit the power of employers effectively by giving employees an understandable and clear route to dispute contracts and other issues. Overall, this may act as an effective deterrent against employers breaking FWA standards. However, the fair work tribunal is often slow and inefficient leading to many individuals being out of work for long periods of time while they undergo disputes, which limits the desire for people to complain and therefore the effectiveness of the act as a whole. 14) Distinguish between a newly industrialised economy and a transition economy. (2) - A newly industries economy are experiencing high levels of growth as result of industrialisation, which has seen from a shift from agricultural towards manufacturing based production. - A transition economy is an economy shifting from a centrally planned to a market based system. A newly industrialised economy generally refers to an economy which has recently undergone a shift from agrarian and agricultural industries to manufacturing and urban production. Alternatively, a transition economy is one that’s in the process of moving from a centrally planned economy to a market or mixed market-based economy. This differs as often the economy is already heavily industrialised and just needs to reduce govt controls. 15) A US govt gives a subsidy to its farmers. Explain the likely impact of this policy of firms and households in Australia. (4) A subsidy refers to a payment offered by a govt to producers in order to offset the cost of production and lower the price of their goods. If implemented in the US agricultural market it may positively benefit households in Australia by lowering the cost of agricultural imports into Australia, increasing purchasing power and quality of life. however, as Australia is a direct competitor with the US in terms of agricultural goods, a subsidy will reduce the competitiveness of Australian goods both domestically and in the international market. This then reduces revenue for these firms and may lead to a reallocation of resources away from efficient production to other areas if the economy if they were unable to compete. Further, this may incentivise innovation in order to regain competitiveness, thereby increasing customer choice and living standards of households. 16) How could recent changes in global attitude towards free trade (including events within the last twelve month) affect the Australia economy. (4) Generally, the years following the GFC has seen the growth of extreme nationalist and protectionist policies that are likely to limit the extent of free trade growth. Most recently, changes such as BREXIT have reduced the strength of international institutions like the EU, leading to the reinstatement of protections and the slowdown of trade. Comparatively, recent trade tensions between the US and Chinese economy incited by former President Trump’s imposition of a 15% tariff on all aluminium M and 25% tariffs on steel M originating from Canada, the EU and China has limited free trade. This increase in protectionism encouraging retaliatory tariffs has resulted in the contagion effect on Australia due its trade relations to both economies. Consequently, an estimated $36 bn drop in GDP is expected to occur over the next 5 years, with approx 60,000 jobs lost, and a reduction in wages by 2.4%. As such, it is evident that a reduction in free trade is detrimental to the Australian economy. 17) Define the term “Gross World Product”. (1) - Total summation of the goods and services produced in the global economy over a period of time, converted to a common unit of measurement (e.g. USD) 18) Outline the factors affecting the supply of Australian Dollars. (2) - Based on those who sell AUD. o Aus purchase imports o Aus purchasing foreign assets - Look at factors that influence the outlined two. i.e. international competitiveness, investor confidence, interest rate differentials. 19) Explain why the elderly and the youth face barriers to employment that are not faced by middle-aged adult workers. (2) - Elderly: less likely to have up to date skills such as technology knowledge in comparison to middle aged workers. Additionally, they are nearing retirement. - Youth: lack of skills and experience due to decrease time in workforce 20) Account for recent trend in Australia’s unemployment rate. - u/e peaked at 7.4% in June 2020 due to COVID-19, decreased growth and decreased demand for g/s decreased derived demand for labour. - u/e has subsequently decreased (currently 4.6%- July 2021 figure) due to increased govt expenditure and wage subsidies etc. Note that this is pre latest lockdowns in VIC, NSW and ACT. So this number should increase again. 21) Outline three factors which impacts the balance of goods and services. (3) - Change in domestic growth - Improvement in ToT improves BoGS - Change in IBC increased growth increases demand for Australian exports 22) Outline one recent trend in inflation over the last few years. (1) - In June 2020- deflation to -0.3%. the CPI excluding volatile items fell from 2.1% in Jan 2020 to 0.4% in mid-late 2020. - COVID increased u/e, Y, C decreased AD and demand-pull inflation 23) Explain why the underlying inflation is the most accurate method of measuring inflation. (2) - 1- define underlying inflation refers to the rate of inflation that removes one-off price changes caused by volatile g/s, while headline does not remove volatile items - 1-Justify accuracy better reflection of market forces of supply and demand. 24) Distinguish between a ‘pegged’ and ‘managed flexible peg’ exchange rate system. (2) - 1- pegged currency is fixed against another currency (or asset), usually on a daily basis on the central bank, so there is no reliance on market forces. - 1- managed flexible peg central bank sets a target band (usually daily), however, the currency can fluctuate within the band based on market forces. 25) Outline two key elements of Australia’s policy of trade liberialisation since the 1980s. (2) - 1973- Whitlam govt cut tariffs across the board by 25$. - 1991 industry statement: tariffs between 5-15% cut to 5%. - Signing FTAs- Aus currently have 12 bilateral FTAs 26) distinguish between the cash rate and the general interest rate. (2) - CR- cost of borrowing and return on saving between RBA and banks in the STMM - IR- cost of borrowing and return on saving between banks of consumer sin the general economy. 27) Account for 1 recent trend in Australia’s economic growth rate. (2) - Identify a trend: -7% in June 2020 to 1.1% in June 2021 - Account/ explain: strong govt expenditure/ FP increased AD 28) Explain how changes in technology and efficiency impact economic growth. (2) - Impact on growth: increased technological change increases productivity and technical efficiency increase in economic growth. - Explanation/ causality: drives AS, which will increase output and growth/ 29) Describe the positive effects of economic growth. (3) - 2 effects: o Increased real income increases quality of life o Indicative of lower cyclical unemployment - Causal link- increases AD 30) Explain how economic policy may be used to respond to a period of negative economic growth. (3) - Expansionary MP decreased CR results in decreased IR decreases cost of borrowing- increases C&I, increases AD and economic growth. - Expansionary FP increased govt expenditure, increases AD. E.g. infrastructurealso jobs increases Y and C and AD. 31) Explain the concept of free riders - People that reap the benefits of public goods without having to pay, often lead to tragedy of the commons. - 1- how does it lead to market failure- distorts resource allocation 32) Explain the concept of negative externalities and relate it to the issue of climate change - 1-define negative externalities - Refer to private/ social costs- firms only consider private costs and do not account for social costs lead to dead weight lost, and products been over produced. Explanation to climate change- pollution and fossil fuels creates CO2 emission, which is a negative externality leads to the enhanced green house effects increased global warming. 33) Explain the relative costs and benefits of using market based mechanisms and regulating to achieve environmental sustainability - Market based: o Positive- manipulating S&D which leads to a more efficient allocation of resources o Negative- accounting for social costs can lead to increased cost of productionwhich is often passed on to consumers as increased inflation. E.g. carbon tax- electricity and increased almost 10% within 6 months - Regulations: o Positive- legally binding o Negative- may undermine the maximum potential output as some economic activities are abolished 34) Define ‘globalisation and outline one ‘driver’ of globalisation. (2) - Define- globalisation refers to increased integration between individual economies, to facilitate a global economy. - Driver- technology; trade liberalisation; TNCs; financial deregulation 35) Outline three reasons for difference between nations. (4) - Internal- resource endowments- institutional factors- bank security, corruption; cultural factors - External- nature of the global financial system/ global trade system 36) Analyse the impacts of globalisation on economic development in an economy other than Australia. (5) - Negatives: TNCs situated in SEZs in coastal and urban areas increased inequality between urban and rural areas - Negative: Increased production from globalisation and trade increased pollution worsened environmental sustainability decreases economic development. E.g. China had 11/20 most polluted cities in 2004. - Positive: increased globalisation and increase TNCs , trade etc increases output and income increases GNI per capita increases HDI over time. - Positive: integration increases corporation to better achieve ESD i.e. China signed the Paris agreement improves environmental sustainability and development. 37) Distinguish between income and wealth - Income is a flow concept, which mis measured over a period of time. This is the return on factors of production. E.g. labour that an individual receives. - Wealth is a stock concept, measured at a point in time. Looks at the value of asset ownership 38) Explain the economic benefits of income inequality - Incentive effect- encourages workers to increase productivity, skills, risk taking etc. improves income and increases AS and growth in LT. - Increased national savings due to high Y earners having a higher MPS decreases SI gap, improves external stability as it improves the current account. 39) Analyse two policies that can be used to improve the distribution of income in Australia. - Policy 1: increased tax free threshold allows low Y earners to retain a greater proportion of Y. E.g. 2012 increased from $6000 to $18200. - Labour retraining programs increased skills of unemployed, particularly low income earners, which decreases the disparity in income levels, hence improves the distribution of income. E.g. 2016/17- PaTH, which however, only 59% of apprenticeships was filled youth unemployment decreased but was still above average. - Minimum wage/ centralisation/ strengthen of safety net disproportionately helps low y earners relative to high y earners. However, this increases structural unemployment and can worsen DOI 40) Inflation rate is 20%; growth rate is 10% in yr 1 and 10.9% in yr 3; unemployment decreased from 89% to 3.5%; CAD is worsening from -4% GDP to -5.5% GDP . Suggest an appropriate monetary policy stance for this economy. (4) - Specifically reference stats given! - Contractionary (i.e. increasing the cash rate) - 1- Monetary policy acts countercyclically, and would be useful in slowing down the economy. - 1- currently 20% which is outside the target band of 2-3%. Inflation is the primary objective of MP, it acts as an anchor point to the establishment of MP. Increase CR will increase the cost of borrowing for the purpose of consumption, leading to decreased demand for G&S thereby lowering prices. - 1- Eco growth- increased from 10-10.9% (higher than the sustained rate of 3-4%)increases savings as eco growth increase, this increases leakages out of the economy and decreases econ growth. - u/e- 3.5% can be assumed that it is at or nearing full employment, and any further expansionary policies will only contribute to inflationary pressure. - CAD- Contractionary= increase C/R IR differentials attracts KAFA inflows = increase in NPY outflow worsens CAD 41) Cash rate 0.25%; growth rate 2/7%; inflation 0.2%; unemployment 5.5%. Evalute the likely effectiveness of MP in this economy at achieving the objectives of high growth, low unemployment and price stability. (5) - The stance is expansionary - Eco growth, u/e, would improve effective - Decreases inflation close to deflation- effective in improving it but not necessarily into the target band of 2-3%. - Mention limitation- Liquidity trap- when it approaches zero-bound limit it becomes less effective. Further, MP is more effective in contractionary stance than expansionary stance. 42) Explain the link between a CAD and a CAFA surplus under a floating exchange rate. (4) - 1- Define the relationship CA+KAFA= CAD offset by KAFA surplus - 2- Under a floating ER, S/D interact to determine the value of the Aus dollar (i.e. supply of AUD equals to the demand of AUD. & BOP= double entry system (every inflows matches a corresponding outflow) Supply of AUD= Made up of outflows; Demand for AUD= inflows. Supply= import, K+Y outflows; Demand= X,K+Y inflows By rearranging, (X-M)+(Y inflows- Y outflows)=K inflows- K outflows, thereby forming the structure of the BoP o Hence displaying the role of: BoGS+NPY+NSY=KAFA o CA=KAFA 43) Analyse the impact of changes in the value of the dollar on the components of the BoGS. (4) talk about both CA and KAFA - 2- Appreciation o lowers the international competitiveness of exports lowers X revenue, worsens BoGS and CAD. o Price of Aus assets becomes more expensive, and lowers KAFA inflwos - 2- depreciation o Over time- increases international competitiveness and increases X revenue, improves BoGS and CAD. o Increase price of foreign assets- decreases KAFA outflows 44) Explain how market failure causes the misallocation of scarce resources in Australia. (3) - Define market failure- situation where the price mechanism fails to take into account social costs and benefits of producing goods. - Demerit goods are under-priced (since social costs are not encountered), making them often overproduced. This distorts resources allocation. 45) Explain the positive and negative externalities that could arise if the govt built a new airport in the Sydney region. (4) - Job creation due to infrastructure - Increase econ activity due to increased tourism (Easier access) - Negative- noise and air pollution - Negative- land degredation 46) Outline one reasons that could explain inequality of income within a nation. (2) - Inequality of opportunity + periods of recession worsens DOI perpetuates inequality in DOW (as high income earners earn most benefits from purchasing assets. 47) Explain the way in which microeconomic reform can reduce income and wealth inequality. (4) - Define MER Long term policies that aims to resolve the underlying structural issues within the economy by improving the efficiency, productivity and competitiveness of industries. - 2- income policy Vet, PaTH, JobMaker increases skills of low-skilled workers increased opportunity for higher and stable income reduces inequality. - 2- wealth policy Superannuation currently 10%, expected to improve to 12%. This improves wealth inequality. 48) Explain the impact of microeconomic reform on the economic objective of full employment. (4) - Define MER - Policy 1 infrastructure - Policy 2 - Policy 3 (-ve) trade liberialisation job losses in inefficient industries, however in the LT increases employment 49) Analyse the effects of a 2.5% increase in the national minimum wage by the FWA on the labour market. Assume the minimum wage is above the equililbaium rate. (3) - 2.5% - Increases disposable income higher AD and economic growth - Increased cost push inflation as labour costs increases increases u/e as employers cut labour to reduce costs. 50) Identify and account for the trend in the tablec(1990-80% to 2005-20%) of changing percentage of Australia’s employees covered by award. (2) - Decentralisation employees are now engaging in more enterprise bargainng as they seek for higher wages.