Corporate finance 1 to 3: Overview Corporate finance 3 to 4: Interest Rate, Fin. Math, & Hurdle Rates The main goal in Finance Maximizing corporate value by making Investment Interest Rate Determined by Supply (Gov) and Demand (Transaction, Decision (Return > Hurdle), Financing Decision (minimize hurdle rate), and Precautionary, Speculative) of Money Capital Allocation (Dividend distribution if no investment opportunity with at o Nominal Risk-free Rate (Rf) = Real Risk-free Rate + Inflation Rate least Return = Hurdle rate) o Price of Corporate Bond = Rf + Credit Spread Book Value (BV) = Equity as reported in Balance Sheet o Price of Corporate Bond = Rf + Default Risk Premium + Liquidity Premium + Market Value of Equity = Market Capitalization = The price people willing to Maturity Premium pay for the equity of a company = Stock Price * #of share outstanding PV (Present Value), Future Value (FV), Annuity [Payment per period] (A), Discount Enterprise Value (EV) = Market Value of Debt + Market Value of Equity – Cash & Rate (r), Discount Factor (DF), n (number of years or period) Cash Equivalent o PV = FV * DF ; DF = 1 / (1+r)^n ; FV = PV * (1+r)^n EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) o FV = A * ((1+r)^n – 1) / r NOPAT(Net Operating Profit After Tax) = EBIT *(1 – Tax) Perpetuity of Annuity with or without growth (g) o PV = A1 / r ; PV = A1 / (r – g)……… [g < r] Balance Sheet: Annual Percentage Rate (APR) and Effective Annual Interest Rate (EAR) o Asset = Debt + Equity = Capital; o e.g., interest rate 12% monthly compounding o Debt exclude interest bearing liabilities o APR = periodic interest rate * frequency of compounding = 12%/12 * 12 = 12% o Borrow too much Sudden Death; Don’t Borrow Die Slowly o EAR = (1 + periodic interest rate)^n – 1 = (1 + 1%)^12 – 1 = 12.68% Income Statement : CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate geometric mean o Revenue; Gross Profit; EBITDA; EBIT (Operating Profit); EBT; Net Income o CAGR = (End / Start)^(1/n) – 1 Cashflow Statement: o Operating Cashflow; Investing Cashflow; Financing Cashflow Risk o Start-up: Large +ve Financing CF; Large -ve Investing CF o Mature: Large -ve Financing CF; Large +ve Operating CF Price Elasticity o Elastic: Volume Play, %Quantity increase > %Price Decrease o Non-Elastic: Margin Play, %Quantity increase < %Price Decrease Economies of Scope vs Economies of Scale o Economies of scope: focus on differentiation o Economies of scale: focus on spreading fixed cost to more unit of sales Contribution Margin stop operation or not? If +ve, continue operation. o Contribution margin = Unit Selling Price – Unit Variable Cost o BEP (Break Even Point) = Fixed Cost / Contribution Margin Leverage o DOL (Degree of Operating Leverage) = %Change EBIT / %Change Sales o DFL (Degree of Financial Leverage) = %Change Earning / %Change EBIT o DCL (Degree of Combined Leverage) = %Change Earning / %Change Sales Analysing Common Size Financial Statement Look for large changes Financial Ratio: Profitability o Gross Margin = Gross Profit / Sales o EBIT Margin = EBIT / Sales; EBITDA Margin = EBITDA / Sales o PreTax Margin = EBT / Sales; Net Margin = Net Income / Sales o Return on Asset (ROA) = Net Income / Asset o Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income / Equity o Return on Sales (ROS) = Net Income / Sales Financial Ratio: Liquidity o Current Ratio = Current Asset / Current Liabilities o Quick Ratio = (Current Asset – Inventories) / Current liabilities o Cash Ratio = (Cash + Marketable Investment) / Current Liabilities Financial Ratio: Asset Utilization o Asset Turnover = Sales / Asset; Fixed Asset Turnover = Sales / Fixed Asset o Inventories Turnover = COGS / Inventories; Inv. Days = 365 / Inv. Turnover o Receivable Turnover = Sales / Receivable; Rec. Days = 365 / Rec. Turnover o Payable Turnover = COGS / Payables; Pay. Days = 365 / Pay. Turnover o CCC = Inv. Days + Rec. Days – Pay. Days Financial Ratio: Solvency o Debt to Asset = Debt / Asset o Debt to Equity (Gearing Ratio) = Debt / Equity o Financial Leverage = Asset / Equity o Interest Coverage = EBIT / Interest Expense Financial Ratio: Valuation o Price to Earning (P/E Ratio) = Stock Price / Earning per Share (EPS); o Price to Book Value (P/BV Ratio) = Stock Price / Book Value per Share (BVPS); o Price to Sales (P/S Ratio); Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/S Ratio) o Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA Ratio) o In comparing companies, usually EBITDA is preferred over Earning because EBITDA is less noisy. EBITDA is a proxy variable of Cashflow. DuPont ROE Decomposition o ROE = (Net Margin) * (Asset Turnover) * (Financial Leverage) o ROE = (NI / Sales) * (Sales / Asset) * (Asset / Equity) = NI / Equity G*(Internal or Sustainable Growth Rate) o G*= ROE * Retention Ratio (RR) = ROE * (1 – Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR)) EVA (Economic Value Added) o Shareholder pov.: EVA = Equity * (ROE – Cost of Equity) o Firm pov.: EVA = Capital Employed * (ROC – WACC) Fair Value (FV) vs Market Value (MV) o FV > MV Undervalued Buy; FV < MV Overvalued Sell RISK VS RETURN o Risk Volatility / Variance / Std. Dev (total Risk = Systematic + Non Sys….) o Expected Return A / B / C (A / B / C); o probability of return 1,2,3 (prob1, prob2, prob3); o Weight of A / B / C in portfolio (Wa / Wb / Wc); o Standard Deviation A / B / C (StdA / StdB / StdC); o Correlation A and B (CorrelAB); o A = prob1 * A1 + probA2 * A2 + probA3 * A3 + …. o Coefficient of Variation A (CV A) = A / StdA the smaller, the better o Expected return portfolio (P)= Wa * A + Wb * B + Wc * C o Standard Deviation Portfolio (StdP) = SQRT (Wa2 StdA2 + Wb2 StdB2 + Wc2 StdC2 + 2 Wa Wb CorrelAB StdA StdB + 2 Wa Wc CorrelAC StdA StdC + 2 Wb Wc CorrelBC StdB StdC o Coefficient of Variation P (CV P) = P / StdP DIVERSIFICATION “don’t put eggs in one basket” o o Maximum Diversification Benefit: CorrelAB = -1 o Diversification Benefit: -1 < CorrelAB < 1 o No Diversification Benefit: CorrelAB = 1 HURDLE RATE = Risk-free Rate + Risk Premium o Firm pov. Hurdle Rate = WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) o Shareholder pov. Hurdle Rate = Cost of Equity HURDLE RATE: Cost of Debt o Cost of Debt = Rf + Credit Spread HURDLE RATE: Cost of Equity o Risk Premium (Rp) = Expected Market Return (Rm) – Risk-free Rate (Rf) o CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model): o Cost of Equity (ke)= Rf + β * Rp o DDM (Discounted Dividend Model): o ke = Dividend1 (D1) / FairValue (Po) + growth (g)…………g < ke BETA (β) o β is the relative volatility of a stock against a benchmark o β = 2 means when benchmark increase 1%, the stock increase 2% o Adjusted β = Raw β * 0.67 + 0.33 o Levered or Equity β = Unlevered or Asset β * (1 + (1 – taxRate)*Debt/Equity) o Levered β is the one you use in CAPM formula o Unlevered and Re-levered the β if there is a big change in capital structure over the past 5 years (since β is calculated using monthly data for 5 years) Value Destruction or Value Creation? o Accounting Return: considered value creation if ROE > Cost of Equity o Accounting Return: considered value creation if Project MIRR > WACC o TSR (Total Shareholder Return) o TSR = Capital Gain + Dividend o Considered value creation if TSR > Cost of Equity; TSR > Industry Index Return; TSR > General Index Corporate finance 4 to 6: Rational Investment Decision Making Return on Investment (ROI) use weighted average for multiple projects o ROI = Additional Profit / Additional Investment Basis for making investment decision o Accounting based ROC (Return on Capital); ROE (Return on Equity) o Cashflow based Payback; Discounted Payback o DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) NPV (Net Present Value); IRR (Internal Rate of Return); MIRR (Modified Internal Rate of Return); Profitability Index (PI) o Independent Projects: invest whenever NPV positive o Mutually Exclusive Project: Choose one or another, choose the one with higher positive NPV Accounting Based o After Tax ROC = EBIT * (1 – taxRate) / Average Book Value of Total investment o If ROC < WACC, then Reject o After tax ROE = Net Income / Average Book Value of Equity Investment o If ROE < Cost of Equity, then Reject Cashflow Based o Payback and Discounted Payback (r = 10%) Year 0 1 2 3 CF -100 10 60 80 Cumulative -100 -90 -30 50 DCF -100 9.1 49.6 60.1 CumulativeD -100 -90.0 -41.3 18.8 o Payback = 2 + 30 / 80 = 2.38 years o Discounted Payback = 2 + 41.3 / 60.1 = 2.69 years DCF Based o NPV = PV of Future Cashflow – Initial Cost…; +veNPV Accept; -veNPV Reject o IRR = Rate when the NPV equals to 0…; IRR>WACC Accept; IRR<WACC Reject o MIRR = (FV Inflows / PV Outflows)^(1/n) – 1…; MIRR>WACC Accept; MIRR<WACC Reject o PI = NPV / Initial Investment…; Choose the bigger one to invest in o Use IRR for early growing firm, Use NPV for mature firm o IRR Reinvestment Rate = IRR, Aggressive!!! o NPV Reinvestment Rate = Hurdle Rate, Conservative!!! Theories of Capital Structure: Static Trade-Off o Static Trade-Off focus on the balance of optimal capital structure, balancing the Benefit of Debt (Present Value of Tax Shield) and the Risk of Debt (Present Value of Financial Distress) o Optimal capital structure is when Maximum Market Value of the Firm achieved, or when WACC at the lowest o Debt Levels and methods to change it o Gearing Ratio = Debt to Equity Ratio…. too much debt or too little debt is not good o Method: Recapitalization (Fast), Divestitures (Fast), Off Balance Sheet (sale-and lease-back, less relevant due to change in accounting standard), Using mix of financing for new investment (Slow), Change dividend policy (Do not change dividend to pay back debt, Slow) o The higher the Debt Level, the higher the financial leverage, the higher the ROE. Remember DuPont ROE Decomposition. Calculating Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) o Cost of Equity (ke) use DDM or CAPM o Cost of Debt (kd) Calculate YTM (Yield to Maturity), Approach it like calculating IRR o WACC = (Equity / (Debt + Equity))*ke + (Debt / (Debt + Equity))*kd*(1-taxRate) o kd < WACC < ke o In WACC calculation, use Market Value of Equity instead of Book Value of Equity Valuation of the Firm with Discounted Cash Flow o Value of Firm = FCFyear1 / (Hurdle Rate – Growth) Initial Public Offering (IPO) o Value of Firm = FCFyear1 / (Hurdle Rate – Growth) o Assume 1 owner with 10 million shares (100%) => owner sells 5 million existing Corporate finance 6 to 7: Financing, Capital Structure, & Capital shares, Ownership by owner will be 50% (5 million shares) => Owner Raises Allocation/Dividend Decisions Money Financing Decisions o Who raise money in IPO? o Depend on life cycle. Early Start Up Need External Financing, o Assume 1 owner with 10 million shares (100%) => Company issues 10 million MatureCan use Internal Financing new shares, Ownership by owner will be 50% (10 million shares) => Company o Service Sector tend to have lower CCC than Manufacturing Sector Raises Money o Source of Financing: Shareholders, Public Lenders, Banks o Parties that are most concerned with IPO outcome: Vendors, Company, Investors, Underwriter Cashflow o Cost of IPO = Direct Cost + Indirect Cost o EBITDA = Earning Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Ammortization o Direct Cost: Fees for underwriters, lawyers, accountants, Roadshow, Printing, o Operating Cashflow = NOPAT + Deprecitation & Ammortization – Changes in Incidental Expenses (such as payment to receiving bank, listing fees, etc.) Working Capital o Indirect Cost: Under pricing of equity has negative o Free Cashflow = Operating Cashflow – Capital Expenditure o The larger the IPO, the better because you are spreading fixed cost to more o Working Capital = Current Asset (Inventory, AR, Cash) – Current Liabilities (AP, units of sales. Short-term Debt) o In IPO, you want to prioritize high quality investor such as: Institutional o Cash Conversion Cycle = Average Inventory Days + Average Receivable Investors, pension Fund, Asset Management Firm. You do not like retail Collection Days (DSO) - Average Payable Payment Days (DPO) investors because they make the stock price more volatile. o Alternative to IPO: RTO (Reverse Take Over) “Backdoor listing”, Direct Listing Funding Gap (Direct Public Offerings), SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company), Roll-up o Supplier payment term: 2/10, Net 30 [2% discount within 10 days, normal IPO price due in 30days] Gap 20 days o Bank is charging 12% per year < 1% for 20days gap Dividend Theories o In this case, Borrow bank and pay faster!!! o Dividend are irrelevant (Investors do not care); Dividend Preference (Investors prefer large payout); Dividend as signals (increase is +ve signal); Tax Effect External Financing – Debt & Equity Financing (Investors prefer low payout); Catering theory (clientele effect, stock price o Debt Financing Source: Bank, Corporate Bond Investors change due to policy changes in dividend, tax, and others) o Equity Financing Source: General Partners, Limited Partners, Public (IPO) Capital Allocation / Dividend Decisions Theories of Capital Structure: Pecking Order o Method: Cash or Stock Dividend, Share buyback, Capital reduction o Pecking Order: in order from most preferred to least preferred o PAY DIVDIDEND if there is no feasible investment (IRR < WACC, NPV -ve) o Retained Earnings (Internal Equity) o Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) = Dividend / Earnings o Debt o Dividend Yield = Dividend / Stock Price o Hybrid Security o Residual Dividend Model: [components are forecasted / expected] o External Equity o Dividends = Net Income – (Equity / Asset * CAPEX) o The difference between internal and external equity is about Floatation Cost o Stock price drop after dividend distribution which consist of Direct Cost (Out of pocket cost) and Indirect Cost (Cost of o Cum Date: The last day you can receive dividend; Ex Date: you can no longer Underpricing). Internal Equity does not have Floatation Cost at all. receive dividend; Record Date: List of names that have right to receive Dividend