Larry Williams Indicators
A) Larry Williams Set Up Tools................................................................................................. 3
Williams COT NetPositions OI ...................................................................................... 3
Williams COT Comm Index ........................................................................................... 5
Williams COT LrgSpec Index ........................................................................................ 6
Williams COT SmlSpec Index ....................................................................................... 7
Williams WILLCO ......................................................................................................... 8
Williams POIV ............................................................................................................... 9
Williams Insider Accumulation Index .......................................................................... 10
Williams Sentiment Index ............................................................................................ 11
B) Larry Williams Timing Tools .............................................................................................. 12
Williams Ultimate Oscillator ........................................................................................ 12
Williams VIX FIX ........................................................................................................ 13
Williams Volatility Trend Stop..................................................................................... 14
Williams True Seasonal Index ...................................................................................... 15
Setting Up Your Chart For Williams True Seasonal ............................................................ 15
Williams Cycle Forecast ............................................................................................... 20
Williams %R ................................................................................................................. 22
Williams Advance Decline Line ................................................................................... 23
C) Larry Williams Traders Tools.............................................................................................. 24
Williams Dollar Risk .................................................................................................... 24
Williams FND ............................................................................................................... 25
Williams Last Trading Day Radar Screen .................................................................... 26
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Special Instructional Videos ......................................................................................... 26
Contact Information ...................................................................................................... 27
Larry Williams Tools Packages & Systems ................................................................. 27
Disclaimer ..................................................................................................................... 27
© 2020 Copyright LNL Publishing, LLC
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A) Larry Williams Set Up Tools
These tools are the cornerstone of how I find what I call setup markets. I use these
indicators on stocks and commodities. All of these indicators were personally created by me.
These are the indicators my current Larry TV subscribers and of course students have seen me
use in “today’s” market situations. This package includes all of the following indicators.
NOTE: All COT Indicators require you use the continuous contracts. Use @ in front of your
futures symbol. There is no COT data for stocks. Depending on where you are in the world, you
may need to adjust your time zone from local to exchange (for example if you are in Japan or
Australia). This is done through the format symbol (TS 9.5) or customize symbol window (TS
10). Otherwise, the COT indicators may not appear on your chart.
Williams COT NetPositions OI
As I see it, this is the KEY set of data to predict when there will be large market moves. It all
begins with the weekly Commitment of Trader (COT) report data. I started following this report
in the very early 70’s. Very, very few have more experience with this data.
Each week I look at the total net positions of the Commercials, Large Traders, and Small
Speculators relative to total Combined Open Interest.
To display this relationship, add both my Williams COT NetPositions OI and Williams COT
Open Interest to your chart. Then select Open Interest by left clicking directly on the indicator
line, hold the left button down, drag and drop the open interest indicator onto the same pane as
the COT Net Positions OI.
Copper: Williams COT NetPositions OI with Williams Open Interest
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It is the relationship of the three parties to Open Interest that matters. We have also
scaled the Open Interest and Small Traders so visually you can see in a quick glance what
is taking place in the markets. For me, this is where setup market evaluation all begins.
Copper: Williams COT NetPositions OI
You can of course also just display each indicator in its own pane, i.e. the large spec net
positions, the small spec net positions, the commercial net positions, or open interest.
To get a thorough understanding of my COT tools and why they are so different from what you
find on the internet, you can refer to my book (Wiley, 2005) Trading with the Insiders, Secrets of
the COT Report. My online futures course takes a deeper dive into these tools than my book.
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Williams COT Comm Index
COT, again, is short for Commitments of Traders and Comm is short for Commercials. The COT
Comm Index is my proprietary index to determine when the Commercials (hedgers) are
significantly long or short a market based on the data released by the CFTC each week.
My students will immediately recognize this index. Do not confuse it with the general, run of the
mill COT indicators you see on the web; mine is different. I taught this index to my students
before Google existed.
I personally use this index every week and now so can you. Generally speaking when it is high
expect rallies; low expect declines.
Copper: Williams COT Commercial Index
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Williams COT LrgSpec Index
LrgSpec is short for Large Speculators. While most people focus only on the
Commercials, I have found it is very helpful to know what the Large Speculators are
doing in the marketplace.
These days, for the most part, the Large Speculators are commodity funds. I use this
indicator to see when they are heavily long or short using the government supplied COT
data.
It is hard to see the nuances of their action in the raw data so I have created this unique
proprietary index.
When it is high they are fully invested and declines are not far away; when low they are heavily
short, there is a rally coming.
Copper: Williams COT Large Speculator Index
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Williams COT SmlSpec Index
Hardly anyone pays attention to the Small Speculators. I do. SmlSpec is short for Small
Speculators... these are public traders who, as you have probably heard, lose about 90% of the
time.
This is a measure of public sentiment, as it represents small traders as defined by the
CFTC. I use this index to get a sense of what the public trader is doing, and look for times when
the CFTC report shows they have more longs than shorts (to set up shorts) or vice versa. These
guys are usually losers, so I want to do the opposite of what they do.
Wheat: Williams COT Small Speculator Index
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Williams WILLCO
This indicator shows the total Commercial Net Position as a percentage of Open
Interest. This helps you understand just how much of the Open Interest the Commercials have;
how intense their buying or selling has been.
It is fully explained in my book, Trade Stocks & Commodities with the Insiders, Secrets of the
COT Report. Published by Wiley in 2005, it was the first book ever devoted
to the COT Report.
Gold: Williams WILLCO
Crude Oil: Williams WILLCO
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Williams POIV
I fully explained this indicator in a Futures Magazine’s issue (link at end of section). I’ve always
liked the idea of On Balance Volume (popularized by my friend Joe Granville). This takes it to
another level; as we combine price, open interest and volume all into one measure of accumulation.
Natural Gas: Williams POIV
Read my detailed article on the Williams POIV published in Futures magazine:
http://www.ireallytrade.com/newsletters/POIV.pdf
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Williams Insider Accumulation Index
Commodity traders will use my POIV index to detect accumulation distribution in their markets.
Stock traders have a disadvantage. Since there is no Open Interest for stocks, they need a tool as
powerful as POIV.
To that end, I have created my Insider Accumulation Index. It works for stocks, as well as
commodities. However, it has been developed primarily for stocks. I have tested and traded it
on markets throughout the world.
What you will be looking for, as you can see from the following example, is divergence between
price action and the index.
Apple: Williams Insider Accumulation
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Williams Sentiment Index
I first featured my own advisory sentiment index in the 1999 book for Bloomberg entitled New
Thinking in Technical Analysis: Trading Models from the Masters.
After more than a decade of real time experience with that index, I developed a better formula
and index to measure this part of market sentiment. It is now my favorite tool to visually show
me advisors sentiment. Sells come when the index shows too much bullishness and buys when
low indicating no one is bullish. We provide this tool for Stocks and Commodities (Futures).
Microsoft: Williams Sentiment Index
S&P E-Minis: Williams Sentiment Index
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B) Larry Williams Timing Tools
Next are my favorite market timing tools. They have been used by traders throughout the world
(my books have been published in 10 languages). I have used many of these for over half of a
century; they are time tested!
Williams Ultimate Oscillator
This tool combines three time periods, which you can vary if you choose, into one index. Now you
can see the effect of short, intermediate and long-term influences in one oscillator.
IBM Williams Ultimate Oscillator
To get a full understanding of this tool, read my detailed article on the Williams Ultimate
Oscillator published in Stocks & Commodities Magazine:
http://www.ireallytrade.com/newsletters/ULTI.pdf
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Williams VIX FIX
The VIX Index has become a very popular trading vehicle as well as market indicator. My version of
it, fully explained in an Active Trader magazine article (see link at end of section), can be applied to
any market. Since the VIX Index only goes back a few years, my proxy version (VIX FIX) of this
index can be taken back to the beginning of trading for any stock, market average, or commodity.
This will help you understand the actual VIX relationships better.
S&P E-Minis: Williams VIX FIX
Gold: Williams VIX FIX
Read my detailed article on the Williams VIX FIX published in Active Trader magazine:
http://www.ireallytrade.com/newsletters/VIXFix.pdf
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Williams Volatility Trend Stop
Want to be in phase with the trend? This unique guide identifies trend changes for you. It
compares favorably with expensive trend systems and strategies.
Bonds Williams Volatility Stop
S&P E-Minis Williams Volatility Stop
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Williams True Seasonal Index
My True Seasonal Index gives you the true seasonal pattern for any market, be it a stock or
commodity. Most stocks and commodities do have seasonal influences. Traders should learn to
take advantage of these patterns.
This is one of the only accurate seasonal indexes available to traders. Why? Because all other
seasonal studies “run the numbers” then curve fit them to the past! The seasonal pattern they
show for 2010 includes data from 2011, 2012, 2013, etc... My “True Seasonal” uses only data
known up to the current time and then is pushed forward on charts for the next year.
This tool is not just restricted to weekly data. You can use this indicator on daily bars as well.
Setting Up Your Chart For Williams True Seasonal
To draw a seasonal into the future, TradeStation needs enough bar spacing on the right side of
the chart. If you add the indicator to a chart that has not been set up properly, the status is turned
off and you will get the error message below.
You will get an error if you do not have enough Spaces to the Right to draw the seasonal.
To get the space required, right click on your chart. Select “Format Window” (Customize
Window in TradeStation 10). Then change the Space to the Right to 253 bars for a daily chart
and 56 for a weekly chart.
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You also need to make sure you have enough data to draw a reliable seasonal. If you only have 4
years of data, the calculation for each point in time only has 4 data points. We like to use as
much data as possible (assuming the data is good – please see the note at the bottom of this
section). Use the continuous contract, such as @ES when drawing a seasonal on a futures
product. If you want to use a specific futures contract, use the @ symbol with your market
symbol so that it merges with the previous contracts, otherwise you won’t have enough data.
Right click on your chart and select “Format Symbol” (Customize Symbol in TradeStation 10).
In the settings tab, change the years back to a very high number so that TradeStation will give
you all the data it has for your market. Something high, like 20 years will work well or even 90
(TradeStation won’t give you 90 years, but you will get all that they have).
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If you add the indicator first and then make the adjustments, you will need to turn the status of
the indicator back on again or add the indicator to the chart again. That should be all you need to
get the seasonal drawn on your chart. Make sure you scroll back in time because when the
seasonal draws, your chart will be out one year into the future. This is a TradeStation limitation
and not something we can control. But, we are very happy they allow projections into the future.
Most software programs do not allow this.
NOTE: There are a couple markets where TradeStation data is back adjusted incorrectly. For
whatever reason, they are unwilling to correct their backadjusting calculation. Soybean Meal and
Soybeans prices go negative as we move back in time. Currently around November 2009 for
Soybean Meal and November 2006 for Soybeans, prices go below zero which of course never
happened and cannot happen. This impacts our True Seasonal. You will need to make sure the
data range does not go back before the time when prices go negative. Scroll back in time on your
chart to see where prices go below zero.
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Wheat Williams True Seasonal
Coffee Williams True Seasonal
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Williams Cycle Forecast
Williams Cycle Forecast takes the 3 most current dominant cycles and blends them into
one forecast. It shows when tops and bottoms
(reversals) should take place and what the
trend should be.
You are given a 3 month in advance projection
of what price should do.
Study the charts below to see the power of this
approach for yourself. The objective is to give
us a sense of the intermediate term moves.
I use this tool on daily charts.
Since this indicator projects into the future,
you need to follow the same steps as my
Williams True Seasonal (see above section
for the true seasonal).
TradeStation does not automatically adjust the
spaces to the right to accommodate a
projection. You have to format your window to
allow for more spaces to the right. For this
indicator you need at least 66 bar spaces to the right.
Bonds Williams Cycle Forecast
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Apple: Williams Cycle Forecast
Gold: Williams Cycle Forecast
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Williams %R
I developed this indicator in 1966 --- half a century ago --- this is my favorite short term and intraday indicator. Many people refer to my indicator as %R or % Range. My book "How I Made One
Million Dollars Last Year... Trading Commodities" (Windsor Books, 1967) fully explains Williams
%R. You can vary the length setting to trigger signals more or less frequently (longer bar setting like
14 will not trigger as often as a 4 Bar Percent R).
S&P E-Minis Williams %R
Gold Williams %R
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Williams Advance Decline Line
This is the cumulative line of advances minus declines on a daily or weekly basis. I’ve looked at this
every day since the mid 1960’s! I like this as a general measure of what is really happening in the
stock market. Use this on the E-minis or your favorite stocks.
S&P E-minis: Williams Advance Decline Line
Google: Williams Advance Decline Line
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C) Larry Williams Traders Tools
These tools will be helpful when managing your positions.
Williams Dollar Risk
These next two tools are Larry Trader’s Tools.
Is there anything more critical in trading than money management? In my opinion, no there is
not. That's why I feel that it is paramount that you can quickly and easily determine how much
money you may make or lose in a trade.
I have developed a tool that will let you see exactly how many dollars per contract you can profit
or lose. Use this for your money management and position sizing. Managing your risk is so
crucial for all traders. Let this tool do all the work for you.
Using the trendline drawing tool, draw a trendline on your chart from any two price points. In the
right panel, click on the "recalculate" button, and in a fraction of a second you'll have the dollar
difference between those two points.
Williams Dollar Risk - Sell Example
Williams Dollar Risk - Buy Example
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Williams FND
Do you know when First Notice Day is for your current trades? Has TradeStation ever kicked
you out of your contract on first notice day?
You really need to know when that is coming, so you can either exit as you choose or roll into
the next month correctly. I have a tool that will help you stay one step ahead.
The First Notice Date indicator shows the most active contract, and when its first notice date is.
This tool shows you when to roll your positions into the next contract (from the active one that's
shown in the text).
Refer to the next chart to see an example of this tool.
Williams FND - First Notice Day
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Williams Last Trading Day Radar Screen
We have also included a radar screen that will help you with the active contract and which
months the commodity trades. Just add this to any existing radar screen or create a new one.
We have included the radar screen below in the workspace that downloads when you launch
these indicators in the TradesStation platform.
Special Instructional Videos
We have posted special instructional videos on the following web page - please take a moment to
go there to learn more about this tools package.
http://www.ireallytrade.com/videos/williamstimingtools.html
http://www.ireallytrade.com/videos/williamssetuptools.html
http://www.ireallytrade.com/videos/williamstradertools.html
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Contact Information
Direct Line: 619-787-3674
Email: customerservice@ireallytrade.com
Website: www.ireallytrade.com
Larry Williams Tools Packages & Systems
You can view some of our other product offerings in TradeStation.
https://tradestation.tradingappstore.com/developers/LNLPublishing
Disclaimer
Our course(s), products, indicators, and services should be used as learning aids. If you decide to
invest or trade real money, all trading decisions are your own. The risk of loss in trading stocks,
futures, & commodities can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such
trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.
Hypothetical or actual performance results have limitations as the future is never like the past.
No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit. We do our
level best to teach you to trade but, as they say, results do vary.
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