C3 BUSINESS AND CORPORATE FINANCE
BUSINESS
AND CORPORATE
FINANCE
STUDY TEXT
C3
Final Level
THE NATIONAL BOARD OF
ACCOUNTANTS AND AUDITORS
TANZANIA (NBAA)
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : i
C3
C3
STUDY TEXT
STUDY TEXT
BUSINESS AND CORPORATE
BUSINESS AND CORPORATE
FINANCE
FINANCE
NBAA
NBAA
ii
Global Business Environment
Edition 1, Version 1
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© National Board of Accountants and Auditors (NBAA)
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : iii
FOREWORD.
FOREWORD.
The National Board of Accountants and Auditors is a professional body in Tanzania, established under the
Auditors and Accountancy Registration Act No 33 of 1972 (CAP 286 R.E.2002). The Board has been charged
The National
Boardthings,
of Accountants
and Auditors
is a professional
in Tanzania,
established
under the
with
among other
the responsibility
to promote,
develop andbody
regulate
the accountancy
profession
in
Auditors
and
Accountancy
Registration
Act
No
33
of
1972
(CAP
286
R.E.2002).
The
Board
has
been
charged
the country.
with among other things, the responsibility to promote, develop and regulate the accountancy profession in
the
country. its statutory obligations, NBAA prepares National Accountancy Examination Scheme for
In fulfilling
students aspiring to sit for Accounting Technician and Professional Examinations. F u r t h e r , f or effective
In fulfilling its of
statutory
obligations,
NBAA and
prepares
Accountancy
Examination
Scheme
for
implementation
improveNational
examination
results, the
Board provides
Study
the examination
scheme
aspiring
to
sit
for
Accounting
Technician
and
Professional
Examinations.
F
u
r
t
h
e
r
,
f
or
effective
students
Guides for all subjects to assist both examination candidates and trainers in the course of learning and
implementation
of the examination scheme and improve examination results, the Board provides Study
teaching.
Guides for all subjects to assist both examination candidates and trainers in the course of learning and
teaching.
The Study Guides have been prepared in the form of text books with examples and questions to enable the
user to have comprehensive understanding of the topics. The Study Guides cover a wide range of topics in the
The Study
Guides
been prepared
form comprehensive
of text books with
andknowledge
questions base
to enable
NBAA
syllabi
andhave
adequately
cover in
thethemost
andexamples
complete
that the
is
to
have
comprehensive
understanding
of
the
topics.
The
Study
Guides
cover
a
wide
range
of
topics
in the
user
required by a leaner to pass the respective examination levels.
NBAA syllabi and adequately cover the most comprehensive and complete knowledge base that is
required by a leaner to pass the respective examination levels.
Furthermore, the Study Guides have been prepared to match with the Competency Based Syllabi to enable the
learners to be exposed to practical understanding of issues rather than memorisation of concepts. In this case,
Furthermore,
the Study
Guides haveby
been
match with the Competency Based Syllabi to enable the
the Study Guides
are characterized
the prepared
following to
features:learners to be exposed to practical understanding of issues rather than memorisation of concepts. In this case,
the Study
are characterized
by theshown
following
features:1.
FocusGuides
on outcomes
– The outcomes
in every
topic provides clear understanding on what to be
1.
2.
2.
3.
learnt.
Focus on outcomes – The outcomes shown in every topic provides clear understanding on what to be
learnt.
Greater workplace relevance – the guides emphasize on the importance of applying knowledge and skills
necessary for effectively performance in a work place. This is different from the traditional training where
workplace
relevance
– the in
guides
emphasize
on the importance of applying knowledge and skills
Greater
much
concern
has been
expressed
theoretical
perspectives.
necessary for effectively performance in a work place. This is different from the traditional training where
much concern as
hasjudgments
been expressed
in theoretical
perspectives.
Assessments
of competence
– The
assessment questions embedded in the Study Guides
are adequate measures of understanding of the subject matter.
Assessments as judgments of competence – The assessment questions embedded in the Study Guides
are
adequate
of understanding
the subjectthose
matter.who are teaching in the review classes
Study Guides
aremeasures
also useful
to trainers of
specifically
3.
preparing learners to sit for the professional examinations. They will make use of these Study Guides together
Study
Guides
are also
useful materials
to trainers
specifically
those in
who
are teaching
the review
with their
additional
learning
from
other sources
ensuring
that thein learners
are classes
getting
preparing
learners
to
sit
for
the
professional
examinations.
They
will
make
use
of
these
Study
Guides
together
sufficient knowledge and skills not only to enable them pass examinations but also make them competent
with their
additional
learningin materials
from other
sources in ensuring that the learners are getting
enough
to perform
effectively
their respectively
workplace.
sufficient knowledge and skills not only to enable them pass examinations but also make them competent
enough
to perform
respectively
in their
workplace.
NBAA believes
thateffectively
these standard
Study
Guides are
about assisting candidates to acquire necessary skills and
knowledge that will enable them to perform as professionals. The outcomes to be achieved are clearly stated so
NBAA
believes
that
these
standard
Studyand
Guides
are about
candidates
to acquire
necessarytopic.
skills and
that
learners
may
know
exactly
the skills
knowledge
theyassisting
are supposed
to acquire
in a particular
knowledge that will enable them to perform as professionals. The outcomes to be achieved are clearly stated so
that learners
exactly
the skills
and knowledge
they are
supposed
to acquire
a particular
topic.in the
NBAA
wishesmay
all know
the best
to NBAA
Examination
candidates,
trainers
in their
review inclasses,
lecturers
higher learning institutions and all other beneficiaries of these learning materials in making good use of the
NBAA
wishes towards
all the best
to NBAA
Examination profession
candidates,intrainers
in their review classes, lecturers in the
Study Guides
promoting
the accountancy
Tanzania.
higher learning institutions and all other beneficiaries of these learning materials in making good use of the
Study Guides towards promoting the accountancy profession in Tanzania.
CPA. Pius A. Maneno
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
CPA.
A. Maneno
JUNE,Pius
2019
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
JUNE, 2019
iv
Global Business Environment
C3Corporate
– Business
and Corporate Finance
C3 – Business and
Finance
viii
i
-
i About
the paper
About
the paper
Global Business Environment
Section A
1. International
Environment
and
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Section
A Business
Global
Business
Environment
2. Mergers and Acquisition
1.
2.
3.
4.
3. Foreign Exchange Market
Business
Environment
and Foreign
Direct Investment
4.International
International Parity
Relationship
and Exchange
Rate Forecasting
Mergers and Acquisition
Foreign Exchange Market
International Parity Relationship
andInvestment
ExchangeAnalysis
Rate Forecasting
International
Section B
(FDI)
1. International Investment Appraisal
2. International Portfolio Theory and the International Capital Asset Pricing Model
Section B International Investment Analysis
C
Business
Valuation Concepts and Applications
1. Section
International Investment
Appraisal
2.
1.International
Business Valuation
Portfolio
2. Bond Analysis
Theory and the International
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Section D Financial Engineering and Planning
Section
1. Futures, C
optionsBusiness
and swaps Valuation Concepts and Applications
1.
2.
2. Foreign exchange planning
Business Valuation
3. Option values
Bond Analysis
vi
...
...
...
1...
21
43
63
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....
....
....
....
...
...
-
....
....
85
-
...
...
-
20
42
62
84
96
97
-
-
....
....
...
...
111
...
161
-
....
-- ....
-
-
....
160
182
183
...
211
...
245
271
-- ....
-- ....
-
210
244
270
286
-
312
110
4. lockchain technology
Section D Financial Engineering and Planning
Managing risk
Section
E
1. Futures, options and swaps
1. Managing risk
2. Foreign exchange planning
3. Option values
Index
4. Blockchain technology
Section E
Total Page Count: ...
Managing risk
1. Managing risk
287
Total Page Count: 318
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : v
Features of the book
‘The book covers the entire syllabus split into various chapters (referred to as Study Guides in the book). Each
chapter discusses the various Learning Outcomes as mentioned in the syllabus.
Contents of each Study Guide
‘Get Through Intro’: explains why the particular Study Guide is important through real life examples.
‘Learning Outcomes’: on completion of a Study Guide, students will be able to understand all the learning
outcomes which are listed under this icon in the Study Guide.
The Learning Outcomes include:
‘Definition’: explains the meaning of important terminologies discussed in the learning Outcome.
‘Example’: makes easy complex concepts.
‘Tip’: helps to understand how to deal with complicated portions.
‘Important’: highlights important concepts, formats, Acts, sections, standards, etc.
‘Summary’: highlights the key points of the Learning Outcomes.
‘Diagram’: facilitates memory retention.
‘Test Yourself’: contains questions on the Learning Outcome. It enables students to check whether they
have assimilated a particular Learning Outcome.
Self-Examination Questions’: exam standard questions relating to the learning outcomes given at the end
of each Study Guide.
EXAMINATION STRUCTURE
The syllabus is assessed by a three-hour paper-based examination.
The examination will consist of two sections.
Section A
Section B
One compulsory question (covering a range of syllabus content)
Three questions out of Five
40 marks
60 marks
vi
Global Business Environment
SECTION A
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : 1
GLOBAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
A1
STUDY GUIDE A1: INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT AND FOREIGN DIRECT
INVESTMENT (FDI)
The modern economy is globally connected and growing more so every day. Smaller, and even the large selfcontained economies are significantly affected by the global economy. Virtually all sectors are being
internationalised with the motives of global concentration, global synergies, and other strategic global motivations.
An individual or a firm in one country can invest into business interests located in another country. The
understanding of issues concerning evaluation, implementation and implications of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
in a current globalised economy are therefore important to this end.
Regardless of business domain, a private firm, government owned or an NGO could operate a cross border
business with a variety of objectives. Various fast food chains like KFC, McDonald’s and several manufacturers like
Toyota, i-phone and designers such as Gucci, operates within number of countries including Tanzania. Some
Tanzanian firms such as METL are also crossing the borders in terms of their operations. Despite the observed
internationalisation and modernisation, each country or region has its own unique operating environment and own
rules on import and export making investment and financing operations differ across countries. This chapter
therefore introduces the regulations, theories and practices governing global direct investments and possible
reactions from host countries. Highlighted below are the learning outcomes for this indicative topic.
a) Evaluate based on a given scenario the impact of external factors and financial market issues upon
business and financial strategy.
b) Evaluate global business environment and financial management decisions related to multinational
companies by analysing;
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
Shareholders and Corporate wealth maximisation concepts for Multinational firms.
Factors for the growth of global business and multinational Corporations;
Risks and Opportunities associated with global business.
Factors for consideration before going global.
c) Evaluate the determinants, usefulness, implications and host country’s restrictions on Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) by assessing:
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
Assessing foreign direct investments modes of involvement
Analysing reasons, strategic and economic motives behind FDI
Alternative global business entry strategies (methods).
Legal and Institutional framework governing Foreign Direct Investment with specific emphasis to
Tanzania.
Advantages and drawbacks of FDI to host country
The role of Foreign Direct Investment in abusive transfer pricing.
Theories governing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).
2
Global Business Environment
1. Identify and evaluate based on a given scenario the impact of external factors and financial market
issues upon business and financial strategy.
[Learning Outcome, a]
Business and Corporate as an area of finance is concerned with actions taken by managers to increase value of
the firm by acquiring an appropriate amount and mix of funds procured at competitive prices and then allocating
these funds in various assets which basing on sound analysis, are expected to generate returns greater than the
cost of acquired funds. With an international aspect, cross border financing and or investment decisions can be
made, and this necessitates a broader understanding of investment and financing activities. It is therefore important
to understand the impact of external factors and financial market issues upon business and financial strategy. Let
us start by examining the external factors which leads to opportunities and threats/challenges to the firm.
External factors
Business firms within an economy do not exist in a vacuum. Their operations, decisions and actions take place in a
dynamic and often turbulent environment, within which many different external factors impact upon their
performance. The global economic environment provides both opportunities and threats to an organisation. This
pervasive growth in foreign market interpenetration makes it increasingly difficult for any country business
organisation to avoid substantial external impacts on various aspects. External factors likely to impact operations of
the business can easily be identified using PEST model.
1. Political- A country’s political system and government policy affects the economic, social and political
environment e.g. the government’s economic policies, such as fiscal policies and monetary policies, have an
impact on the market conditions, the funding environment etc. which, in turn, have a bearing on the organisation.
One should consider these factors while assessing the performance of an organisation. Remember these factors:
stability of the government, political formation of the government, involvement of the government in trade
agreements such as EU, EAC etc., attitude of the government towards globalisation, privatisation etc.
2. Economic- Economic factors refer to the macroeconomic factors that will shape the broader economic
environment within which the firm operates. They represent the financial condition of the external environment
within which the organisation must operate. These factors include GDP, taxes, exchange rates, unemployment,
trade factors and tariffs as well as Monopolistic practices
3. Social- Social factors refer to factors such as changing demographic patterns, changing consumer tastes and
preferences and overall societal trends. They represent the tastes and demands of the external environment
within which the organisation must operate. Population growth, Population profile and education levels, Age and
health of the population, Disposable income levels and Social trends
4. Technological- Technological factors take into account the effect that technology has on the way an
organisation makes and delivers its goods and services. In addition to looking at present technology, organisations
also need to look at upcoming technology and how it will affect the current way of business. Technical factors
affecting an organization include Rate of change and new developments in technology, Patents granted and
Diffusion of technology
With internationalization of companies, various opportunities and threats are brought by above factors leading to
different financial and business strategies by the firm.
Relevant financial market issues impacting business and financial strategy.
i. Deregulation of financial markets- reduction or elimination of strict rules prior raising funds in the capital
market has simplified possibilities of raising funds from different economies. It has vastly increased the ability of
the financial markets to allocate international capital efficiently. Having many rules and regulations reduces
investment opportunity and eventually a slow economic growth. Deregulation has increased growth in financial
transactions and resulted in a restructured, more competitive, and less costly financial services industry.
ii.
iii.
Cross listing- This refers to the process of listing of a company's common shares on a different exchange
market than its primary and original stock exchange market. With numerous times zones and multiple
currencies, cross listing results to increased liquidity, access to more investors and it enhances corporate
governance practices. Cross listed companies are will abide by the corporate governance rules adopted by the
well-developed stock market.
Access to capital refers to the need that small businesses have for loans or investment money, so they can
grow. With internationalization, it is now easy for companies to access capital from different parties of the
world. Not only in form of debt, but also in form of equity as explained under cross listing in ii above.
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : 3
iv.
Minimization of transaction cost- Access to information- with the growth in technology, investors can easily
know what is happening in other economies and make timely decisions
v.
Economic integration- when countries located in a particular geographic area agree to reduce and or remove
trade barriers, there will be a free flow of goods or services and factors of production among each other. This
will stimulate financial market as well as economic growth among member countries.
Major effects in developing countries that have resulted from the globalization of financial markets

Increased competition

Expansion of product base

Expansion of customer base

Increase of market efficiency

Increased usage of IT

Increased unemployment

Increased employment capital mobility.
Generally, the emergence of corporate entities in the world economy is based on contemporary technological
development, which has led to globalization of production. international production has resulted to the following:



co-operation among global productive units
the large-scale capital exports,
the export of production that is production abroad has come into prominence as against commodity export
All in all, global corporations consider the whole of the world their production place, as well as their market and
move factors of production to wherever they can optimally be combined.
In deciding whether to invest abroad, Management must first determine whether the firm has sustainable
competitive advantage that enables it to compete effectively.
Required:
Discuss financial market issues relevant to multinational companies willing to invest in less developed countries.
2. Evaluate global business environment and financial management decisions related to multinational
companies by analysing;
i. Shareholders and Corporate wealth maximisation concepts for Multinational firms.
[Learning Outcome b.i]
Multinational corporations (MNCs) are defined as business entities that engage in some form of international
business. Their managers conduct international financial management, which involves international investing and
international financing decisions that are intended to maximize the value of the MNC.
Central goal of MNCs
Successful financial decision making in a globalised business environment requires an understanding of the goal(s)
of the firm. A firm can have one or more goals such as achieving a target market Share, keeping employee
turnover at minimum, survival, maximization of profit, creating an over expanding empire etc. Despite all these
goals, there is a need for a single financial objective as it leads to clear decisions and harmonizes several roles to
unified objective.
The most widely accepted financial objective of the firm whether operating in local or foreign environment is to
maximize the value of the firm for its owners, that is, to maximize shareholder wealth. Shareholders are the
owners of a corporation, and they purchase stocks because they are looking for a financial return whether firms’
operations are global or local.
Wealth maximization is taken as a central financial goal of the firm in finance for the following reasons:
4
Global Business Environment
i.
ii.
iii.
Wealth maximization is based on cash flows and not profits. In contrast to profits, cash flows are exact and
explicit and therefore avoid any ambiguity associated with accounting profits which is subjected to
judgment and estimates
Wealth maximization presents a longer-term view relative to other goals such as profit. Accounting profit
tends to be shorter oriented and can be achieved by the managers at the cost of long-term sustainability of
the business.
Risk- variability of returns is not displayed in profit figures but wealth maximization considers the element of
risk. Wealth-maximization principle considers the risk and uncertainty factor while considering the
discounting rate. The discounting reflects both time and risk. The higher the uncertainty, the higher the
discounting rate and vice-versa. Two firms with identical profits may be exposed to different risk scenarios
and hence different value before the eyes of shareholders.
Consider two firms, firm A and firm B. If both firm A and firm B have accounting profit as a percentage of
sales of 18%, with this information, an investor will be indifferent on whether to invest in A or B. If additional
information that communicates their level of risk is provided; say, firm A is in transportation industry
managing a fleet of motorcycles, commonly known as boda-bodas while firm B is a mutual trust fund that is
professionally managed and invests in a well-diversified portfolio. In this regard, an investor is likely to
invest in firm B since it has low risk as compared to firm A although both firms have identical profits.
iv.
v.
Wealth maximization considers future prospects. Profit is a historical figure and although recent profit
figures may be used to project future growth, they fail to display the growth potential. Two firms with
identical profits may be valued differently by shareholders due to their growth potential. With wealth
maximization, expected future cash flows are discounted to obtain their present value, a basis that is use to
value the company.
Wealth maximization considers the time value of money. It is important as we all know that a shilling today
worth more than a shilling in future. In wealth maximization, the future cash flows are discounted at an
appropriate discount rate to represent their present value.
MNCs and agency problem
As it is the case with domestic corporations, agency problem for MNCs is also caused by separation of ownership
and control. Managers of MNCs may make decisions that are contrary to the maximization of long-term
shareholders wealth which is the central goal of the firm. With MNCs, managers are having more room to pursue
their own interests rather than interests of the shareholders
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An MNC’s manager may decide to establish a subsidiary in a location based on the location’s appeal to a
particular manager rather than on its potential benefits to its shareholders.
A decision to expand a subsidiary may be motivated by a manager’s desire to receive more compensation
rather than to enhance the value of the MNC.
These situations result to conflict of interests between managers of MNCs and the central goal of MNCs and hence
amounting to agency problem
Agency costs for an MNC are usually larger than agency costs for a purely domestic corporation. It should be
remembered that agency cost is the costs suffered by owners (shareholders or principals) in ensuring that
managers (agents) maximize shareholder wealth. Below are the reasons as to why agent costs for MNCs with
subsidiaries scattered around the world is likely to be larger than agency costs for a purely domestic corporation.
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Monitoring managers of distant subsidiaries in foreign countries is more difficult.
Foreign subsidiary managers raised in different cultures may not follow uniform goal.
The sheer size of the larger MNCs can also create large agency problems.
Managers of MNCs located abroad tend to downplay the short-term effects of decisions, which may result in
decisions for foreign subsidiaries to be inconsistent with maximizing shareholder wealth.
Going concern assurance provided by operations in other countries may induce some managers to pursue own
interests rather than maximizing shareholders wealth.
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : 5
It is claimed that agency costs for an MNC are larger than agency costs for a purely domestic firm. Justify this claim
by explaining possible agency costs which may be incurred by MNCs.
2. Evaluate global business environment and financial management decisions related to multinational
companies by analysing;
ii. Factors for the growth of global business and multinational Corporations.
[Learning Outcome b.ii]
The growth of any business is the function of various factors which can be generalised into suitable strategies and
conducive global business environment. Below are the factors for the growth of global business and multinational
Corporations;
(a) Comparative advantage
The increase in multinational business can generally be linked to the classical theory of comperative advantage.
This theory argues that countries should specialise in producing products which results to comperative advantage.
When a country specializes in the production of some products, it will not produce other products, making trade
between countries is unavoidable. Comparative advantages allow firms to penetrate foreign markets.
According to Porter, a nation attains a competitive advantage only when its firms are competitive. He further
believes that firms become competitive through innovation. Innovation means modernisation and it includes
technical improvements to the product or to the production process. In his Diamond model, Potters puts forward
four factors explaining why a country is likely to have comperative advantage over the other in the production of a
particular product. These four factors are memorized as Peter, First Do Reading Fast.
i.
Firm strategy, structure and rivalry (i.e. conditions for organisations and the nature of domestic rivalry) The
first factor refers to the local competitive structure for a country’s industries. Companies that can operate
and survive in a highly competitive local environment can be prepared to compete in the global environment.
These companies are forced to become, efficient and innovative in order to succeed in a global environment.
This factor refers to how the firms manage to cope with the competition.
ii.
Demand conditions (i.e. sophisticated customers in home market) Demand conditions refer to the
sophistication of local consumers. The more demanding and discerning a country’s customers, the more
demanding they will be on suppliers of their local goods and services.
iii.
Related and supporting industries- the term “related and supporting industries” refers to the existence
of organisations that serve similar industries and can collaborate. This usually means they are part of the
industry supply chain. This increases the possibility of an ongoing exchange of ideas. If there is success in
one industry, it is advantageous for the success of the other industry. In the case of related industries, an
organisation would prefer home suppliers rather than foreign suppliers because home suppliers can provide
co-operation and timely availability of resources
iv.
Factor conditions (i.e. the nation's position in factors of production, such as skilled labour and infrastructure)
Factor conditions are production for inputs such as:
 human resources such as skilled labour
 money market (Bond market, repo market) / capital market (debt market, equity market)
 physical resources such as availability of good quality raw materials
 intellectual resources such as computer
 infrastructural resources such as transport system
(b) Market Imperfections Theory
Market imperfection brings about immobility of factors of production such as labour, rationalizes international trade
and investment. MNCs often capitalize on a foreign country’s resources. Imperfect markets provide an incentive for
firms to seek out foreign opportunities. Had markets been perfect, factors of production would flow to any economy
wherever they are demanded. The unrestricted mobility would have made international trade irrelevant since each
country would have incurred the same cost and returns in producing a product.
(c) Product cycle Theory
At the heart of product cycle theory, is the argument that as a firm matures, it may recognize additional
opportunities outside its home country. According to this theory, corporations become established in the domestic
market because of some perceived advantage over existing competitors. As competitors become informed at
home, a firm is likely to establish itself first in its home country. At this stage, firms foreign demand will be
accommodated through exportation. With time, foreign competitors will be informed, and foreign competition will
increase. The firm may feel the only way to retain its advantage over competition in foreign countries is to produce
6
Global Business Environment
the product in foreign markets. This is done to reduce transportation and other operational costs. As foreign
competition increases, the firm will become more established by differentiating its product.
(d) Deregulations:
Strict regulations within an economy makes it difficult for growth of global business and MNCs. Relaxations of
these regulations attracts foreign investors. As discussed in the preceding section, the central financial objective of
a corporation is to maximise wealth and therefore, corporations are likely to go global if they will find a jurisdiction
whose regulations will cause the to maximise their wealth.
METL Group, Tanzanian home-grown company with a presence in eleven countries in Africa appoints highly
qualified and technically trained managers. The group decided to expand its operation after realizing that
Tanzanian market has matured. It is group’s policy to invest in its people and infrastructure. It also takes advantage
of availability of cheap raw materials and other factors of production.
Although there is a strong domestic competition from other giants such as Azam group, MELT has focused on
producing the products which it can do better than its rivals. The market segment chosen by MELT does not
necessitate sophistication of products given the nature of customers it serves.
Required:
Using MELT as a case study discuss factors for the growth of global business and multinational Corporations
2. Evaluate global business environment and financial management decisions related to multinational
companies by analysing;
iii. Risks and Opportunities associated with global business
[Learning Outcome b.iii]
Opportunities associated with global business
Global companies have some significant advantages over local businesses. Below are opportunities associated
with global business:
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Opportunities for market growth- going international results to a widened customer base. This results to
growth of business due to increased sales which eventually results to maximisation of long-term shareholders
wealth.
Opportunity for risk minimisation through diversification. A multinational corporation can offset a negative
growth in one country by a success in the other country.
Access to new talent – international labour can offer a company unique advantages in terms of increased
productivity, advanced language skills as well as diverse educational backgrounds
Enhanced competitive advantages- Companies which starts operating i other countries attain a first move
advantage and hence in a position to build brand awareness before competitors.
Widened access to human resources- Talented human workforce results to unique advantages in terms of
increased productivity, advanced language skills as well as diverse educational backgrounds
More attractive investment opportunities- companies with multinational operations have an additional
investment opportunity offered by foreign market. External partnership drives innovation.
Quickening diffusion of technology. If say a Tanzanian company starts operations in China, it is likely that the
company will advance its operations in terms of technology due to experiences obtained from both countries.
Reducing production and redistribution costs – allocating factory closer to the market and sources of inputs
results to a reduced operational cost. This makes a company gaining more competitive advantage relative to
its competitors.
Despite all these opportunities, global business is exposed to several risks. Ideally, value of a corporation depends
on its expected future cash flows. Uncertainties surrounding MNC’s future cash flows amounts to risks facing
multinational companies. These risks can be categorized into three groups as discussed below:
1. Foreign exchange risks
If the foreign currencies to be received by an MNC suddenly weaken against the its operating currency, the MNC
will receive a lower amount of cash flows than was expected. This may reduce the value of the MNC. To protect its
self against this risk, a MNCs may adopt different techniques which include internal hedging techniques and
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : 7
external hedging techniques. Internal hedging techniques include measures such as invoicing in hard currency,
exposure netting as well as leading and lagging payments. External hedging techniques include measures such as
money market hedge, forward contract, future contracts, options as well as swaps. These techniques will be
covered in detail in the later chapters.
2. Political Risks
These include the risk of interference (law, restrictions on convertibility of currently of currencies etc.) and
sometimes complete confiscation of company’s assets. Several measure can be employed by a multinational
organization to avoid political risks.
Measures before locating Production facilities overseas
 Assess the political environment of the host government
 Enter into binding agreements with the host government
Measures after locating production facilities overseas
 Invite influential Political leaders to form part of the Board of Directors of a Multinational firm
 Provide employment to indigenous people
 Support infrastructure activities
 Buy raw materials from local suppliers
 Support social activities e.g. sponsoring sport clubs
 Own communication facilities
 Borrow from local sources to finance your firms’ operations.
3. Economic Risks
If economic conditions weaken, the income of consumers becomes relatively low, consumer purchases of products
decline, and an MNC’s sales in that country. This is because the amount of consumption in any country is
influenced by the income earned by consumers in that country. All in all, economic risk involves changes in
expected future cash flows, and hence economic value, caused by a change in exchange rate. Economic exposure
can be separated into two components: transaction exposure and operating exposure. Operating exposure arises
because currency fluctuations can alter a company’s future revenues and costs, i.e. its operating cash flows.
Possible restrictions on Foreign Direct Investment by the host country
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Local contents requirements (LCRs): MNCs are required to use a certain amount of local inputs in
production. This is done with a view to promote development of local ancillary industries (TV, automobiles
etc).
Domestic Sales requirements: MNCs are required to sell a certain proportion of their production in the
domestic markets (i.e. exports are restricted).
Remittance restrictions: restrict the right of a foreign investor to repatriate from an investment (several
countries in Africa impose these restrictions owing to balance of payments problems).
Local employment restrictions: specify that a certain percentage of the TNS’s employment be reserved for
host countries nationals and
Product Mandating: Places obligations on a TNC to supply certain markets with a designated product or
product manufactured form a specific facility or operation.
3. Evaluate the determinants, usefulness and implications of host country’s restrictions on Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) by
i. Assessing foreign direct investments modes of involvement
[Learning Outcome b.i]
Corporations are increasingly attracted to do business beyond their domestic markets. The main reason for this is
said to be the growth of the international trade and the increase of the word economic independence. As such,
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has become important source of private capital for developing countries. FDI leads
to private international capital flows; and therefore, important because it represents additional investment and
provides employment. This is good from the host government point of view.
The International Monetary Fund defines foreign direct investment as “an investment that is made to acquire a
lasting interest in an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor, the investor’s purpose
being to have an effective voice in the management of an enterprise”. The term FDI is used to denote the
8
Global Business Environment
acquisition abroad of physical assets, such as plant and equipment, with operational control ultimately residing with
the parent company in the home country.
FDI may take number of different forms including
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Establishment of new enterprises in foreign country (either as a branch or a subsidiary)
Expansion of overseas branch or subsidiary,
Acquisition of an overseas business enterprise or its assets.
Stages for FDI (Modes of Involvement)
There are various ways/methods on how the company can go global, but all in all safety of the capital to be
involved should be a priority.
1. Exportation
This involves selling good and/or services abroad.
Advantages
 less risk and less cost method
 political risks are minimal
 agency cost is avoided such monitoring and evaluation costs
Disadvantages
 Host country’s citizens denied employment chances
 Inputs not obtained from host country
 Host country not participating in the entire value chain activities
2. Management contracts
This is a contract that involves provision of management services to a foreign firm. It is an agreement by which
company will provide its organizational and management expertise in the form of services to a foreign company.
Advantages
 Minimum investments
 Minimum political risk (no nationalization)
 Host country’s company may become more innovative and productive
Disadvantages
 Involves payment of high cost to foreign experts
 May result to significant outflow of funds from host country
3. Licensing a foreign firm
This involves granting rights and provision of technology to a foreign entity to produce particular product(s) in
exchange for fees or some other benefits. It obligates a firm to provide its technology (copyrights, patents,
trademarks) or trade names in exchange of fees/ some specified benefit. The right is always granted for a specified
period.
Advantages
 Requirement of minimum capital investment
 Faster way of foreign market entry
 Fewer risks especially political risks
 Helps to escape high tariffs and act as ban of importation to host country
 Gives a room for the host country to participate in value chain activities
 Employment to citizens of host country
Disadvantages
 Cannot be applied for some goods or services
 Cash flow is relatively low- license fee is likely to be lower than FDI profits
 Possible loss of quality control- (Product quality standards may compromised/affected).
 Competition from the licensee after the expiry the contracted period
 Difficult to control the transfer of technology to competitors (risk that the technology will be stolen).
 High agency costs
4. Joint venture/strategic alliance with local partner
Joint Venture is defined as shared ownership in a foreign business. A foreign business unit that is owned partially
by the parent company is termed a foreign affiliate i.e. sharing ownership and risk with a local partner. Joint venture
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : 9
is a venture that is owned and operated by two or more firms. Many firms enter foreign markets by engaging in a
joint venture that resides in those markets. A foreign unit that is 50% or more owned and therefore controlled by the
parent is typically designated a foreign subsidiary. A Joint Venture is therefore a foreign affiliate but no a
subsidiary.
Advantages
 The local partner understands the customs moves of the local environment
 The local partner can provide competent management, not only top but at the middle as well
 Local partner`s contacts and reputation enhance access to the host country`s capital
 The public image of a firm that is partially local owned may improve its sales
 Shared risks and shared profit
Disadvantages
 Political risk is increased rather than reduced if the wrong partner is chosen,
 Local and foreign partner may have divergent views about the cash dividends or about desirability of growth
financed by retained earnings
5. Acquisition of Existing business
Firms frequently acquire other firms in foreign countries as means of penetrating foreign market.
Advantages
 Allow firms to have full control over their business
 Enables the firm quickly to obtain large portion of foreign market share
Disadvantages
 Expose the company at risk,
 It requires a substantial capital for investment, a
 High agency costs and,
 If it is performing poorly it may be difficult to sell operation at reasonable price.
6. Establish a wholly-owned locally incorporated branch
To produce and sell their products, this method requires high investment, and it takes long for the company to get
reward.
Note: At times, a company may use combination of various methods.
3. Evaluate the determinants, usefulness and implications of host country’s restrictions on Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) by
ii. Analysing reasons, strategic and economic motives behind FDI
[Learning Outcome b.iii]
Reasons for foreign direct investment
Some of the key factors that are important in firm’s decision to invest overseas include:
i. Overcoming trade Barriers
Governments may impose tariffs, quotas, and other restrictions on exports and imports of goods and services,
hindering the free flow of these products and services across national boundaries. Facing barriers to exporting its
products to foreign markets, a firm may decide to move production to foreign countries as a means of
circumventing the trade barriers. Trade barriers can also arise naturally from transportation costs. Such products as
minerals ore or cement that are bulky relative to their economic values may not be suitable for exporting because
high transportation costs will substantially reduce profit margins. In these cases, FDI can be made in the foreign
markets to reduce transportation costs.
ii. Imperfect Labor Markets
Labor services in a country can be severely underpriced relative to its productivity because workers are not allowed
to move freely across national boundaries to seek higher wages. Among all factor markets, the labor market is the
most imperfect. Severe imperfections in the labor market lead to persistent wage differentials among countries.
When workers are not mobile because of immigration barriers, firms themselves should move to the workers to
benefit from the underpriced labor services. This is one of the main reasons MNCs are making FDIs in less
developed countries, where labor services are underpriced relative to their productivity.
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Global Business Environment
iii. Comparative advantages
MNCs often enjoy comparative advantages due to special intangible assets they possess. Examples include
technological, managerial and marketing knowhow, superior R & D capabilities, and brand names. These intangible
assets are often not hard to package and sell to foreigners. In addition, the property rights in intangible assets are
difficult to establish and protect, especially in foreign countries where legal recourse may not be readily available.
As a result, firms may find it more profitable to establish foreign subsidiaries and capture returns directly by
internalizing transactions in these assets.
iv. Vertical Integration
MNCs may undertake FDI in countries where inputs are available to secure supply of inputs at a stable price.
Furthermore, if MNCs have monopolistic/oligopolistic control over the input market, this can serve as a barrier to
entry to the industry. Many MNCs involved in extractive/natural resources industries tend to directly own oil fields,
mine deposits, and forests for these reasons. Although the majority of vertical FDI are backward in that FDI
involves an industry abroad that produces inputs for the MNCs, foreign investments can take the form of forward
vertical FDI when they involve an industry abroad that sells MNC’s output.
v. Product Life Cycle
Firms undertake FDI at a particular stage in the life cycle of the products that they initially introduced. When firms
first introduce new products, they choose to keep production facilities at home, close to customers. In the early
stage of the product life cycle, the demand for the new product is relatively insensitive to the price and thus the
pioneering firm can charge a relatively high price. As the product becomes standardized and mature, it becomes
important to cut the cost of production to stay competitive. In this case the firm may be induced to start production
in foreign countries. Thus, FDI takes place when the product reaches maturity and the cost becomes an important
consideration. FDI can thus be interpreted as a defensive move to maintain the firm’s competitive position against
its domestic and foreign rivals.
vi. Shareholder Diversification Services
If investors cannot effectively diversify their portfolio holdings internationally because of barriers to cross-border
capital flows, firms may be able to provide their shareholders with indirect diversification services by making direct
investments in foreign countries. When a firm holds assets in many countries, the firm’s cash flows are
internationally diversified. Thus, shareholders of the firm can indirectly benefit from international diversification even
if they are not directly holding foreign shares.
Foreign Direct Investment Motives
Motives for FDI can be categorized into two groups, strategic Motives and economic Motives.
Strategic Motives behind FDI
a)
Market Seekers - Imperfections and barriers to entry exist in many foreign countries, which may mean that
companies have to locate their production facilities abroad to access new markets. The market motive is often
defensive, as are other strategic motives, with companies concentrating on overall survival rather profitability.
Market seekers produce in foreign markets either to satisfy local demand or to export to markets other than
their own home market.
b) Raw Material Seekers - Raw material seekers extract raw materials whenever they can be found, either for
export of for further processing and sale in the host country. Firms in the oil, mining, plantation, and forest
industries fall into this category. By having direct control over raw materials, a more certain supply at an
acceptable cost can be maintained
c) Production Efficiency Seekers- Because of imperfections in the international factor market, especially labor,
companies often locate their production facilities abroad in regions of cheap labour to cut production costs,
thereby increase competitiveness. Thus, production efficiency seekers produce in countries where one or
more of the factors of production are underpriced relative to their productivity.
d) Knowledge Seekers- Knowledge seekers operate in foreign countries to gain access to technology or
managerial expertise.
e) Political Safety Seekers- To avoid interference from governments, companies often locate their production
facilities in regions free from government influence. Political safety seekers acquire or establish new
operations in countries that are considered unlikely to expropriate or with private enterprises. Two corporate
policies result from this motive:
 Safe Plant: Safe plants involves locating production facilities in politically stable countries to secure supply
in case of government intervention in alternative source countries.
 Multiple Sourcing: This occurs when companies locate their production facilities in several locations and
produce similar products in each.
Economic Motives behind FDI
Economic motives relate primarily to the competitive advantages of the multinational over companies located in
foreign markets. The competitive advantages must be firm specific, transferable, and powerful enough to
compensate the firm for the potential advantages of operating abroad. Based on observations of firms that have
successfully invested abroad, some of the competitive advantages enjoyed by multinational firms are:
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : 11
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
Economies of Scale and Scope - Economies of scale can arise in production, marketing, R&D, transport,
finance and purchasing. Production economies can come from the use of large-scale automated plant and
equipment or from an ability to rationalize production through worldwide specialization. Marketing economies
occur when firms are large enough to use the most efficient media to create worldwide brand identification, as
well as to establish worldwide distribution, warehousing and servicing systems. Financial economies derive
from access to the full range of financial instruments and sources of funds. In-house research and
development programs are typically restricted to large firms. Transportation economies accrue to firms that
can ship in carload or shipload lots. Purchasing economies come from quantity discounts and market power.
Managerial and Marketing Expertise- Managerial expertise includes skills in managing large industrial
organizations from both a human and technical viewpoint. It also encompasses knowledge of modern
analytical techniques and their application in functional areas of business. Managerial expertise can be
developed through prior experience in foreign markets.
Superior Technology- Technology includes both scientific and engineering skills. It is not limited to
multinational, but firms in the most industrialized countries have had advantage in terms of access to
continuing new technology spin-offs from the military and space programs.
Financial Strength - Financial strength includes not only economies of scale but also the ability to reduce risk
through diversification of operations and borrowing sources. Typically, multinationals have had both lower cost
and better availability of capital than foreign and domestic competitors.
Differentiated Products - Differentiated products originate from research-based innovations or heavy
marketing expenditures to gain brand identification. It is difficult and costly for competitors to copy such
products, and they always face a time lag if they try. Having developed differentiated products for the
domestic market, the firm may decide to market them worldwide, a decision consistent with the desire to
maximize return on heavy research and marketing expenditures.
Competitiveness of the Home Market- A strongly competitive home market can sharpen a firm’s competitive
advantage relative to firms located in less competitive home markets. Firms facing sophisticated and
demanding customers in the home market can hone their marketing, production and quality control skills. A
competitive home market obliges firms to fine-tune their operational and control strategies. They are forced to
customize these strategies for their specific industry and country environment.
Various researches on “Investment in Tanzania” have indicated that tax holidays and exemptions offered by the
government of Tanzania to attract foreign direct investment are not the only reason behind many investors’
decision to come and invest in Tanzania.
Required:
Using examples, discuss any four (4) other determinants that you think may be an attraction to foreign investments
to a country like Tanzania
3. Evaluate the determinants, usefulness and implications of host country’s restrictions on Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) by assessing:
iii. Alternative global business entry strategies (methods).
[Learning Outcome c. iii]
A company can go global through various ways as discussed below:
i.
A Joint Venture
This is a legal entity formed between two or more parties to undertake an economic activity together. The JV
parties agree to create, for a finite time, a new entity and new assets by contributing equity. They then share
in the revenues, expenses and assets and "control" of the enterprise. A MNC may create joint venture with the
local company as an entry strategy to global market.
Advantages of Joint Venture
 The local coy have full knowledge of market environment which would take a substantial period for the
foreign company to acquire
 The local coy will provide competent managers especially for the middle level.
 In some countries 100% of ownership is not possible thus joint venture is the only alternative
Disadvantages of Joint Venture
 Financing decision could be monopolized by the local company
 Political risk will increase if wrong partner is chosen
 Disclosure requirements may be interfered by host country
12
Global Business Environment
ii.
Mergers and Acquisition
Although they are often uttered in the same breath and used as though they were synonymous, the terms
merger and acquisition mean slightly different things. When one company takes over another and clearly
established itself as the new owner, the purchase is called an acquisition. From a legal point of view, the
target company ceases to exist, the buyer "swallows" the business and the buyer's stock continues to be
traded. In the pure sense of the term, a merger happens when two firms, often of about the same size, agree
to go forward as a single new company rather than remain separately owned and operated. This kind of action
is more precisely referred to as a "merger of equals." Both companies' stocks are surrendered, and new
company stock is issued in its place.
Advantages
 It is cost effective way to capture advance technology rather than developing it internally
 It is an easy and quicker way to establish an operating presence in the host country
 Economies of scale can be achieved in a merger or acquisition
 Foreign exchange exposure is reduced
Disadvantages
 Cultural differences may prevent the joining of the two companies with different customer values and
nationality
 The price paid by the foreign coy to acquire the local company may be too higher
iii.
Licensing
This is the method by which the foreign company grants license to the local company to manufacture the
company’s product in return of royalties.
Advantages
 Transportation costs are avoided because exporting is not required
 Direct foreign investment is not required as the locally company handle Production
Disadvantages
 License fees are generally low.
 It is difficult to control quality of the product.
 The possibility of technology secrecy provided to the local company to leak out to the competitive firms of
the host countries.
iv.
Franchising
Franchising is the practice of using another firm's successful business model. In this case multinational
company allow an individual to sell its product in specific country and the company receives fees plus a
periodical royalties and return. Good examples of companies which use the franchising strategy are
McDonald’s Corporation and Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) American fast food chains.
Advantages
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Independence of small start-up business supported by big business network.
Training provided by the franchisor compensates for the need of experience.
Already established reputation and image.
Easiness of securing finance due to brand awareness.
Disadvantages
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Binding agreement.
Little room for creativity.
Failure of one franchise may cost other franchises.
Sharing profit with the franchisor.
3. Evaluate the determinants, usefulness and implications of host country’s restrictions on Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) by assessing:
iv. Legal and Institutional framework governing Foreign Direct Investment in Tanzania.
[Learning Outcome c. iv]
The trend of FDI inflow in Tanzania has tremendously increased in the past decade. In the 1990s, Tanzania’s FDI
was negligible but it grew tremendously in the past decade. This can be attributed to the increasing awareness of
investors about the attractiveness of Tanzania as investment destination including Tanzania’s; high growth
potential, strategic location, peace and political stability, attractive investment regimes and incentives, abundance
of natural resources, membership of bilateral trade agreement and warm and hospitable social attitude towards
investors. Some of the leading countries investing in Tanzania includes; South Africa, United Kingdom, Kenya,
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : 13
Canada, and China. Prioritized sectors of investment include; agriculture and livestock development, natural
resources, tourism, manufacturing, petroleum and mining, real estate, transportation services, ICT, financial
institutions, telecommunications, energy, human resources, and broadcasting.
Quality institution contributes to economic growth by harnessing the enforcement of contracts and protection of
property which create an enabling environment for people and businesses to grow. FDI has proven useful in the
past to advance economic development and foster structural change in emerging economies for which Tanzania is
not an exception. In particular, FDI plays important role in emerging economies development efforts by;
supplementing domestic savings, generating employment, integrating local businesses into the global economy,
transfer of modern technologies, increasing productivity and raising skills of local manpower. Despite the FDI
growth, the country faces the following institutional challenges of which if addressed will attract more growth are:
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Inadequate power supply,
Less improved infrastructure
lack of designated land for investment projects
Laws governing FDI in Tanzania
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Tanzania Investment Act, 1997
Zanzibar Investment Promotion Act, 1986
Private Partnership Act, 2010
The Land Act, 1999
The Tourist Industry Licensing Act, 1969
The Value Added Tax Act, 1997 (Amended in 2014)
Capital markets and Securities Act, 1994
Banking and Financial Institution Act, 1991
Export Processing Zones Act, 2002
Special Economic Zones Act, 2002
The Hotels Act, 1963
Foreign exchange Act, 1992
Immigration Act 1995
Various organisations and actors facilitate FDI in Tanzania by adhering to their sartorial regulations as well as other
relevant principal acts identified above. These organizations and their influence have been discussed below:
i.
Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) Created by Tanzanian Investment Act of 1997 as “the primary agency of
the government to coordinate, encourage, promote, and facilitate investment in Tanzania”. The agency helps
investors to obtain permit, licenses, visas, and land and play the role of guide to the applicable acts and
regulations that an investor may need to understand.
ii.
Business Registration and Licensing Agency (BRELA) gives license to investors wishing to operate their
businesses in Tanzania. It is under the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The agency has the mandate to
register certain kinds of businesses. But in Zanzibar, FDI registration is handled directly by Zanzibar
Investment Promotion Agency and may liaise with relevant ministries if necessary. These agencies have
made licensing procedure and documentation requirements fairly straightforward t overly onerous as
previous.
iii.
National Investment Steering Committee (NISC) is a committee set up to ensure coordination and
consistency among the different government ministries, sectors, agencies and their respective institutions
with respect to investment including FDI. A committee was a recommendation from United Nations Industrial
Development and Organisations’ (UNIDO) on investment regulations for the development of Tanzania
institutions influencing investment and trade.
iv.
Tanzanian National Business Council (TNBC) is a committee established under Presidential order and
chaired by the President. Its aim is to provide the private sector, including foreign investors, the access to the
President in order to discuss barriers to efficient business operations.
v.
Commercial Court: The High Court of Tanzania oversees all commercial cases. There are three specialized
divisions Commercial, Labour, and Land. The Labour and Land divisions have exclusive jurisdiction over
their respective matters, while the Commercial division is without exclusive jurisdiction. Subject to financial
limitations, the District and Resident Magistrate Courts also have original jurisdiction in certain commercial
cases. The Tax Appeal Act and the Fair Competition Act, 2003 of Tanzania established the Tax Revenue
Tribunal and the Fair Competition Act as other quasi-judicial bodies for related commercial cases.
vi.
Ministries:
 Ministry of Land, the Land Act and the Village Land Act 1999 empowers the Land Ministry to make land
available to private sector investors on a leasehold basis.
14
Global Business Environment
 The Ministry of Mining and Energy have the sole responsibility of granting mineral rights to investors.
 Ministry of Energy and Minerals - According to the Mining Act 1998 and the Petroleum Act 1980 of
Tanzania, all firms investing in the mining or petroleum sectors are required to obtain registration and
approval administered by this ministry. The ministry asses and issue certificate separately from the once
issued by BRELA under the Ministry of Trade and Industry.
 Ministry of Tourism and Natural Recourses and TIC gives licences to investors in tourism business.
 The Ministry of Labour and Employment manages and administers expatriate employment and basic
legislation covering immigration to Tanzania purposely for investment.
 Ministry of Industry and Trade have wide- It harnesses foreign investment by providing and enforcing;
intellectual property rights, sectoral developments and competition policies and general regulation on
external trade.
Various laws governing FDI in Tanzania have been for enacted. These laws include but not limited to Tanzania
Investment Act, 1997; Zanzibar Investment Promotion Act, 1986; Private Partnership Act, 2010 and The Land Act,
1999. The formulation of such laws gave mandate and existence of various organisations and actors to support
FDI.
Required:
Discuss the actors and their respective roles
3. Evaluate the determinants, usefulness and implications of host country’s restrictions on Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) by assessing:
v. Advantages and drawbacks of FDI to host country
[Learning Outcome c. iv]
Advantages of FDI for the Overseas Country
1. In the short-run FDI may lead to improvement in the balance of payments.
2. FDI may bring about of new technology, particularly for LDCs.
3. FDI may assist in the development of the skills of the indigenous work force.
4. FDI may assist in the creation of additional employment.
5. Introduction of new management practices.
Disadvantages of FDI for Overseas Country
1. In the long term there will be negative impact on the balance of payments as the multinational company seeks
to remit funds earned out of the country.
2. In the long term, the economy may be more unstable, since in times of economic pressure it is the operations
that are furthest from the head office that tend to be closed first.
3. Loss of control over key resources may occur if a multinational company comes to own strategic resources in
the country, such as mineral deposits.
4. Introduction of different value systems and lifestyles that undermine the traditional culture.
3. Evaluate the determinants, usefulness and implications of host country’s restrictions on Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) by assessing:
vi. The role of Foreign Direct Investment in abusive transfer pricing.
[Learning Outcome c.vi]
A transfer price is the compensation paid for intra-group services to related units of MNCs. It is the price at which
goods or services are transferred from one process or department to another or from one member of the group to
another. For the case of MNCs, transfer pricing entails a price a price at which goods and services are transferred
from one operation to another operation within the same country or across the borders. MNCs adjusting their arm’s
length prices to obscure the extent of their transfer price manipulations.
International transfer pricing is regarded as an important mechanism for multinational corporations (MNCs) to
manoeuvre funds internationally and to choose the countries in which they wish profits to be reported. In pursuing
global profit maximisation by employing transfer pricing mechanisms, an MNC is constrained by counter-measures
introduced by governments.
Transfer pricing techniques used under FDI Arrangements
FDI through MNCs use four transfer pricing techniques namely Market-based transfer pricing, Cost-based transfer
pricing, negotiated transfer prices and central management-based transfer prices
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : 15




The market-based transfer price is a price that a selling division can get for its product in the external market
or the price at which the buying division can get the product in the market place. The use of market-based
transfer prices allows each division to be evaluated on a stand-alone basis
The cost-based transfer pricing includes the full cost method, the full cost-plus method and the marginal cost
transfer price. Under the full cost method, the full cost including fixed overheads absorbed that have been
incurred by the supplying division in making the intermediate product is charged to the receiving division. The
full cost-plus method on the other hand ensures that the supplying divisions do not make any profits on the
products or services transferred a mark-up is added to enable the supplying division to earn a profit on
interdivisional transfers. The marginal cost transfer price method on the other hand involves charging the
variable cost that has been incurred by the supplying division to the receiving division.
The negotiated transfer pricing method involves negotiations between two managers of the selling and
receiving departments/divisions. The selling manager quotes the price and delivery conditions which may or
may not be accepted by the receiving manager based on alternative sources (Hirshleifer, 2006).
The central management-based transfer pricing, the central management may determine the transfer price
and communicate this to the divisional managers. In most cases the basis of this is to promote goal
congruency and to allow for a standard performance evaluation criteria.
Likely abusive transfer price practice in FDI arrangement
When related companies transact with each other, their commercial and financial relations may not be directly
affected by external market forces in the same way. As a result, the prices charged for intra firm transfers of goods,
for instance, between a foreign subsidiary of a multinational and its parent, may differ from those charged to
independent companies for the transfer of comparable goods.
Transfer price is not a bad practice. What makes it bad is the motive behind instituting it. If applied internally for
motives such as allocating resources optimally, measuring performance or enhancing divisional autonomy, then it
is not an abusive practice. The main abusive issue by MNC is adjusting the price of cross-border transactions
to reduce taxable profits. This is done intentionally by shifting profit to tax haven countries to minimize taxable
profit. This practice leaves the host country operations with inadequate taxable profit.
Due to inadequacies institutional infrastructure and weak legal structure, MNCs are likely to maneuver some
transactions to suit tax minimization objective. MNC may therefore charge a price less than or higher that arm’s
length price for transactions for their own motive. Typical international transactions that are usually subject to
transfer pricing rules include:
 Purchase of raw-material
 Sale of finished goods
 Software development services
 IT enabled services
 Support services
 Technical service fees
 Royalty fee
 Management fees
 Corporate guarantee fees
 Loan received or paid
 Purchase of fixed assets
 Reimbursement of expenses paid/received
 Sale or purchase of machinery
Counter measures introduced by governments to overcome abusive TP





Enactment of laws which require that transfer prices for imports and exports of goods and services be set equal
to arm’s length prices. Tax regulations of home and host countries needs to capture this notion in their
regulations.
Enforcement of transfer pricing regulations to protect revenue for the growth of the host country. This will help
protecting revenue share of the host country.
Transfer pricing audit by taxation authority- used to check the abuse of transfer pricing by MNCs industries and
detect whether price or profit has been understated.
Pressure from lobbyists on scrutinisation of MNCs suspected of profit shifting and transfer mispricing.
Aligning and rationalizing business supply chains, tax, and legal operating models to deliver sustainable
financial benefits as well as defining sustainable transfer pricing strategies is a key towards overcoming
abusive TP practices.
16
Global Business Environment
Answers to Test Yourself Questions
Answer to TY 1
i.
Deregulation of financial markets- reduction or elimination of strict rules prior raising funds in the capital
market has simplified possibilities of raising funds from different economies. It has vastly increased the ability of
the financial markets to allocate international capital efficiently. Having many rules and regulations reduces
investment opportunity and eventually a slow economic growth. Deregulation has increased growth in financial
transactions and resulted in a restructured, more competitive, and less costly financial services industry.
ii.
Cross listing- This refers to the process of listing of a company's common shares on a different exchange
market than its primary and original stock exchange market. With numerous times zones and multiple
currencies, cross listing results to increased liquidity, access to more investors and it enhances corporate
governance practices. Cross listed companies are will abide by the corporate governance rules adopted by the
well-developed stock market.
iii.
Access to capital refers to the need that small businesses have for loans or investment money, so they can
grow. With internationalization, it is now easy for companies to access capital from different parties of the
world. Not only in form of debt, but also in form of equity as explained under cross listing in ii above.
iv.
Minimization of transaction cost- Access to information- with the growth in technology, investors can easily
know what is happening in other economies and make timely decisions
v.
Economic integration- when countries located in a particular geographic area agree to reduce and or remove
trade barriers, there will be a free flow of goods or services and factors of production among each other. This
will stimulate financial market as well as economic growth among member countries.
vi.
Financial Strength
Firms demonstrate financial strength by achieving and maintaining global cost and availability of capital. This is
a crucial competitive cost variable that enables them to fund FDI and other foreign activities. Multinationals that
are resident in liquid and unsegmented capital markets are normally blessed with this attribute.
Answer to TY 2





Monitoring managers of distant subsidiaries in foreign countries is more difficult.
Foreign subsidiary managers raised in different cultures may not follow uniform goal.
The sheer size of the larger MNCs can also create large agency problems.
Managers of MNCs located abroad tend to downplay the short-term effects of decisions, which may result in
decisions for foreign subsidiaries to be inconsistent with maximizing shareholder wealth.
Going concern assurance provided by operations in other countries may induce some managers to pursue own
interests rather than maximizing shareholders wealth.
Answer to TY 3
1.
In terms of Comparative advantage, MELT has specialised in producing products which results to
comperative advantage.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
Firm strategy, structure and rivalry. MELT is facing domestic competitions from other companies
such as Azam group of companies
Demand conditions-market segment chosen by MELT does not necessitate sophistication of products
given the nature of customers it serves.
Related and supporting industries- various domestic suppliers sell their inputs to MELT Co.
Factor conditions – recruiting highly trained managers
2.
In terms of Market Imperfections Theory- immobility of factors of production such as labour, rationalizes
international trade and investment.
3.
Regarding Product cycle Theory since MELT operations matured in Tanzania, it recognized opportunities
outside its home country.
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : 17
Answer to TY 4
(a)
determinants of foreign direct investments:
 Motive of MNC Vs Economic Determinant: which include the Raw material availability and cost,
Productivity and availability of skilled and unskilled labour infrastructure (roads, ports, power, telecom
etc).
 Efficiency-seeking which is based on labour productivity; Availability of scientifically trained manpower;
Transport costs (from host country to export destinations) and membership of the host country in
regional trading agreement with a view to the possibility of tie-ups with other corporate in the region.
 Policy Framework- Several dimensions of the policy environment could be important such as economic
and political stability, rules regarding entry and exist and privatization policy.7
 Business Facilitation - This essentially refers to the ease with which business can be conducted in the
host country. The most important of these business practices include corruption and administrative
efficiency, investment incentives for special sectors and areas and development of financial
institutions, especially banks and the capital market.
 Monetary and financial system – stability of forex, convertibility of TSHS, Possibility of financing the
investments internally and
 Political risk: Civil unrests, democratic change and its impact on investments and other policies.
Answer to TY 5
FDI Actors and their respective roles in Tanzania
i.
Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) Created by Tanzanian Investment Act of 1997 as “the primary agency
of the government to coordinate, encourage, promote, and facilitate investment in Tanzania”. The agency
helps investors to obtain permit, licenses, visas, and land and play the role of guide to the applicable acts
and regulations that an investor may need to understand.
ii.
Business Registration and Licensing Agency (BRELA) BRELLA gives license to investors wishing to
operate their businesses in Tanzania. It is under the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The agency has the
mandate to register certain kinds of businesses. But in Zanzibar, FDI registration is handled directly by
Zanzibar Investment Promotion Agency and may liaise with relevant ministries if necessary. These
agencies have made licensing procedure and documentation requirements fairly straightforward t overly
onerous as previous.
iii.
National Investment Steering Committee (NISC) Is a committee set up to ensure coordination and
consistency among the different government ministries, sectors, agencies and their respective institutions
with respect to investment including FDI. A committee was a recommendation from United Nations
Industrial Development and Organisations’ (UNIDO) on investment regulations for the development of
Tanzania institutions influencing investment and trade.
iv.
Tanzanian National Business Council (TNBC) is a committee established under Presidential order and
chaired by the President. Its aim is to provide the private sector, including foreign investors, the access to
the President to discuss barriers to efficient business operations.
v.
Commercial Court: The High Court of Tanzania is in charge of all commercial cases. There are three
specialized divisions Commercial, Labour, and Land. The Labour and Land divisions have exclusive
jurisdiction over their respective matters, while the Commercial division is without exclusive jurisdiction.
Subject to financial limitations, the District and Resident Magistrate Courts also have original jurisdiction in
certain commercial cases. The Tax Appeal Act and the Fair Competition Act, 2003 of Tanzania
established the Tax Revenue Tribunal and the Fair Competition Act as other quasi-judicial bodies for
related commercial cases.
vi.
Ministries:
 Ministry of Land, the Land Act and the Village Land Act 1999 empowers the Land Ministry to make land
available to private sector investors on a leasehold basis.
 The Ministry of Mining and Energy have the sole responsibility of granting mineral rights to investors.
 Ministry of Energy and Minerals - According to the Mining Act 1998 and the Petroleum Act 1980 of
Tanzania, all firms investing in the mining or petroleum sectors are required to obtain registration and
approval administered by this ministry. The ministry asses and issue certificate separately from the once
issued by BRELA under the Ministry of Trade and Industry.
 Ministry of Tourism and Natural Recourses and TIC gives licences to investors in tourism business.
 The Ministry of Labour and Employment manages and administers expatriate employment and basic
legislation covering immigration to Tanzania purposely for investment.
18
Global Business Environment
 Ministry of Industry and Trade have wide- It harnesses foreign investment by providing and enforcing;
intellectual property rights, sectoral developments and competition policies and general regulation on
external trade.
Indicative Examination Questions (IEQs)
IEQ 1
(a)
Discuss any two conditions that a company needs to fulfil before embarking on foreign direct investment.
(b)
Discuss any two reasons behind the growth of foreign direct investments in Africa.
(c)
Mbonden City Plc is a manufacturer company of multimedia computer system based in Dar es Salaam.
In the multinational sense, companies try to create, transfer and preserve their competitive advantages
abroad. Mbonden’s customers are all Tanzanian firms and majority of them purchase highly customized
computer systems. Mbonden City Plc is considering whether to switch from domestic production to offshore
production, possibly in Kenya.
Mr. Jaman Nyoni, the Chairman of Mbonden City’s board of directors believes that since the company has
sound engineering and marketing capacity, shifting to offshore manufacturing will enable it to increase
production as well as take full advantage of low-wage labour, cheaper materials, tax concessions, low
interest on loans and government subsidies. The Chief Finance Officer has prepared a conversional
discounted cash-flow statement, which indicated that switching to offshore production would give a positive
Net Present Value (NPV) investment.
The board of directors has established that the Kenyan Government is willing to provide a loan of Kshs900
million at 9 percent fixed interest to Mbonden to allow it to build a factory there. The loan would be repaid in
six annual-equal instalments. The projected annual income before tax from the proposed Kenya Plant is
Kshs.9,000,000, beginning at the end of the first year. Kenya’s corporate tax (CT) rate is 25 percent and
there is a 20 percent dividend withholding tax. However, Kenya will exempt the plant’s income from CT (but
not the withholding tax) for the first six years. Mbonden plans to remit all income as dividends back to
Tanzania where Tanzania Corporate Tax is 35 percent.
Another option being considered by Mbonden City Plc is to shut down all domestic production and arrange a
manufacturing contract with a firm operating in Japan. However, the board of directors of Mbonden City Plc is
concerned that the change from domestic to foreign operations could entail a loss of some intangible
strategic benefits associated with domestic production.
Required:
Assume you work for FDI Consulting firm and you have been asked to advise the board of directors of
Mbonden City Plc on their foreign investment strategy:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
Calculate the value of tax exemptions, which the Kenyan Government is willing to allow on the basis
that Mbonden City Plc’s wish to remit all income as dividend back to Tanzania.
Calculate the before tax value of the interest subsidy, based on the information above, if the market
interest rate for such an investment is 20 percent.
Comment on what you consider to be the key advantages and disadvantages for Mbonden City Plc if it
were to shut down all domestic production and arrange a subcontract with a Japan based company, to
manufacture all its production.
Answer to IEQ 1
(a)
Conditions to be fulfilled before a company decide to undergo an FDI:
(i)
The expectation that the net benefits of FDI will be greater than that for either licensing or exporting.
FDI will be preferred to export or licensing where:
 International diversification of product lines by FDI reduce risk.
 Benefits exist from interrelationships in the production of several parts of the multinational’s
product range.
 The reputation or brand name of the company is considered as important by consumers, and
 An after-sales service is very important. In this case multinational firm will be unwilling to entrust
after-sales service to a third party through licensing or other agreement.
(ii)
The multinational’s foreign activities must be competitive when compared with local companies in the
foreign country.
(iii) The optimal location for FDI can be identified via the analysis of the costs of materials, labour,
transportation etc.
(iv) The optimal timing of FDI can be established.
International Business Envierment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : 19
(b)
(c)
Reasons for the recent growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing markets:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
To enjoy tax incentives and other incentives.
To take advantages of tariff exemptions.
Remittance guarantees.
Privatization.
Positive attitude towards foreign investment.
Relaxation of the state controls.
(i)
The value of tax exemptions
The Tax exemption calculation if Mbonden City Plc remits all income as dividend to Tanzania.
Profit Before tax
Corporate Tax (@ 25%)
Profit after tax (dividend)
Withholding Tax (20%)
Net Company Dividend
Tanzania tax owed (35%)
Less: Indirect FCT
Direct FCT
Net Tanzania Tax Owed
The value of net dividend
IN KENYA
Without Tax Holiday With Tax Holiday
Kshs.
Kshs.
9,000,000
9,000,000
2,250,000
-----------6,750,000
9,000,000
1,350,000
1,800,000
5,400,000
7,200,000
IN TANZANIA
3,150,000
3,150,000
1,350,000
1,800,000
2,250,000
---------(450,000)
1,350,000
5,400,000
5,850,000
Net benefit = 5,850,000 – 5,400,000 = Kshs. 450,000
Assuming Mbonden City Plc has no use for the Kshs. 450,000 excess foreign tax credits; the
calculations indicate that the value of the tax holiday to it is about Kshs. 450,000 annually.
20
Global Business Environment
SECTION A
Mergers and Acquisitions : 21
GLOBAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
A2
STUDY GUIDE A2: MERGERS AND
ACQUISITIONS
As we have studied in earlier stage, the central goal of the firm in finance is to maximise shareholders wealth. To
achieve this goal, companies cannot do without growth. Mergers and acquisitions have constantly been a common
external growth strategy. Moreover, it adds to the various ways through which a firm can go multinational through
branches, subsidiaries, joint ventures, franchise or turn key projects. Mergers and acquisition have been mentioned
as a quickest way of entering a new market and overcoming competition. When two companies to form a new
company, or one purchase the other, it becomes easy to obtain the earlier mentioned advantages.
Business combination, acquisition and formation of synergies have for long been considered amongst efficient
ways for quick growth and expansion to foreign markets by companies around the globe. However, a successful
merger and acquisition strategy requires critical analysis, realistic valuation and application of appropriate
principles to that end. Nonetheless, this can only be possible when business firms have practitioners with right
understanding and skills on this issue. It is therefore imperative for professional accountant to be enlightened on
theories, principles and practices on mergers and acquisition.
In this Study Guide, we will introduce the concept mergers and acquisitions, assess alternative valuation
techniques for mergers and acquisitions as well as assessing alternative financing techniques for mergers and
acquisitions.
a) Assess and plan mergers and acquisitions as an alternative growth strategy by analysing:
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Alternative types of mergers and acquisitions.
Alternative mergers and growth strategies available to a firm.
Merits and demerits of mergers and acquisitions as expansion strategy.
Qualities of an appropriate acquisition strategy.
Factors that determine the success of a merger or acquisition.
b) Assess alternative valuation techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
Corporate and Competitive nature of an acquisition proposal.
Existence of synergies through mergers.
The problem of overvaluation of the target firm.
The impact of acquisition or mergers upon the risk profile of the acquirer.
Growth levels of the target firm’s earnings.
Valuation of Type I, II, and III acquisitions.
Valuation of Intangible Assets.
c) Assess alternative financing techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
i.
ii.
iii.
Alternative approaches to financing mergers and acquisitions.
An offer for Acquisition.
Effect of an offer on financial position and performance.
22
Global Business Environment
1. Assess and plan mergers and acquisitions as an alternative growth strategy by analysing:
i. Alternative types of mergers and acquisitions
[Learning outcomes a. i]
Mergers ad acquisitions (M&A) refer to the combination of business firms. Although every merger has its own
unique reasons, the underlying principle behind mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is the creation of additional value
which we called "synergy" that takes three forms including revenue, expenses and cost of capital. On the revenue
side, merging companies is likely to result to higher revenue than it was realized before. On the side of expenses,
business combinations usually result to cost saving due to economies of scale and economies of scope. It is
cheaper for the combined business to raise capital than when these businesses raise capital alone.
On the other hand, M&As are also driven by strategic reasons such as positioning that is taking an advantage of
future opportunities created by the combined company, filling strategic gaps which are essential for long term
survival, enhancing organizational competencies as well as widening market access. M&A are at times driven by
the wish to acquire assets at the price less than market value. For instance, an oil extraction company may need to
develop oil refining equipment while on the other hand, there is a company that has excess capacity in terms of
refining oil. These companies might combine the efforts for the success of one new company. The need to diversify
and smooth income is another reason for diversification. Given the significance of mergers and acquisitions, such
transactions must be approved by those charged with governance of the firm as well as shareholders.
In summary, the drivers for mergers and acquisitions are:













Market share
Economies of scale
Government policy
Deregulation
Economies of scope
Imitation
Buying out competitors
Potential business synergies e.g. expanding product lines
Having a succession pool
Acquiring specific competence
Globalisation/market access
Access to closed markets
Access to distribution channels
Why is it likely that a M&A will result to lower cost of capital to the company?
Forms of Mergers and Acquisitions
For whatever a reason, M&As may take various forms including mergers, acquisitions, consolidations, purchase of
assets, tender offers as well as management acquisitions.





Merger: refers to the combination of two existing firms into one new firm. With mergers, companies which
combines are usually of comparable size to create a new firm that will theoretically be equally owned by
both partners
Acquisition: under this arrangement, one firm retains its legal structure and obtains the majority
ownership in the acquired firm, which does not change its name or legal structure. One firm therefore
dissolves after being acquired by the other. It is simply a purchase of a small firm by a large one and the
small firm ceases to exist, and its assets becomes part of a larger firm
Consolidation: the unification of two or more corporations by dissolution of existing ones and creation of a
single new corporation.
Tender Offer: under this arrangement, one firm offers to buy the outstanding shares of the other firm at a
specific price. The firm that wants to purchase the other firm communicates the offer directly to the
shareholders bypassing management of the firm that is to be purchased.
Acquisition of Assets: This normally occurs during bankruptcy proceedings where other firms bid to
purchase the assets of the firm being liquidated. The firm whose assets are being purchased must get
approval of its owners. Therefore, acquisition of assets occurs when one firm purchase assets of the other.
Mergers and Acquisitions : 23

Management buyout (MBO) or management acquisitions. Here, the management of the company
purchases enough shares that makes them controllers of the company and makes the firm a private one. It
has an impact of unifying ownership and control, an act that minimizes agency costs.
All in all, the terms merger and acquisition are too broad to refer to mergers and acquisitions only. The real
difference between these transactions lies on how the purchase is communicated to and received by the target
company's board of directors, employees and shareholders.
1. Assess and plan mergers and acquisitions as an alternative growth strategy by analysing:
ii. Alternative mergers and growth strategies available to a firm.
[Learning outcomes a. ii]
a) Horizontal: Two firms are merged across similar products or services. this is integration in complementary
activities in a value system. It results in the production of substitute products. Horizontal integration is
useful in the following ways

economies of scope

reduction in competition

fulfilment of customer expectations

availability of substitutes

economies of scale
Horizontal mergers are often used as a way for a company to increase its market share by merging with a
competing company. For example, the merger between oil and gas companies operating in upstream will
allow both companies a larger share of the oil and gas market.
b) Vertical: Occurs when two firms with adjacent activities in a value system combines. For example, when a
manufacturer is merging with a supplier. Vertical mergers are often used to gain a competitive advantage
within the marketplace. If Jaydee Pharmaceuticals, a large manufacturer of pharmaceuticals, merged with, a
large distributor of pharmaceuticals, to gain an advantage in distributing its products.
Shell is a worldwide group of oil, gas and petrochemical companies. The company's main business is the
exploration for and the production and trading in a range of energy resources. The company has extensive
vertical integration. It conducts exploration, production, transportation, refining, retail distribution and sale of
fuel. The vertically integrated business model gave significant economies of scale to Shell and provided it
with the opportunity to establish barriers to entry both geographically and on a more global scale.
Vertical integration may be of two types:
i.
ii.
Forward integration- is expansion into activities which are related with the organisation’s outputs.
This type of integration extends control over downstream distribution operations; those areas of the
value system which are closer to end users.
Backward integration- is expansion into activities related with the inputs into the organisation’s
existing business. This type of integration involves extending control over upstream operations;
those areas of the value system which are further from the end user.
Example Hi Tech Ltd is a computer manufacturer in the UK. It decided to acquire Superb Ltd, a spare
parts manufacturer. This is backward integration because Hi Tech is producing outputs and it intends
to acquire a business which is its raw material manufacturer i.e. which produces inputs.
c) Conglomerate-. It involves merging with a firm that offers products or services beyond the current
capabilities or value. Firms which have united are in entirely different fields
Virgin is one of the world's most recognised and respected brands. Conceived in 1970 by Sir Richard
Branson, the Virgin Group has gone on to grow very successful businesses in sectors ranging from mobile
telephony, to transportation, travel, financial services, leisure, music, holidays, publishing and retailing. The
businesses owned by Virgin are as follows:
24
Global Business Environment





Virgin Travel (& Virgin Holidays)
Virgin Retail (Music & Entertainment)
Virgin Investments (computer products, promotional blimps, property development)
Virgin Hotels Group (clubs & hotels in UK, Spain & Virgin Islands)
Virgin Communications (Virgin Interactive Entertainment, Publishing, Radio, TV)
Advantages of unrelated diversification



The financial resources of the organisation can fully be utilised in the industry where higher profits can
be earned.
There is the opportunity to maximise the utilisation of underutilised resources or competencies.
The risk involved in business is spread over different industries.
Related business combination is argued to be superior to unrelated diversification because it usually creates
economies of scope. However, there are some problems associated with related diversification such as:



It is time-consuming.
It is expensive.
Difficulties may arise in sharing resources.
3. Assess and plan mergers and acquisitions as an alternative growth strategy by analysing:
iii. Merits and demerits of mergers and acquisitions as expansion strategy.
[Learning outcomes a. iii]
Merits of mergers and acquisitions






Firms enter into merger and acquisition to increase their market share. The combination of firms into one will
not only bring the existing customers together, but also likely to attract other customers
The benefits of synergy refer to the benefits arising out of working together of two or more parts. The
benefits. arise because the result is greater than the sum of their individual effects or capabilities. synergy
brings about returns enrichment and cost savings.
Economies of scope in contrast to economies of scale. An organisation may achieve economies of
scope by increasing its number of SBUs so that its total costs are spread over a greater number of business
units. The cost per business unit therefore falls. In this manner, diversification takes place
Realization of economies of scale. Uniting companies makes it possible to operate in large scale resulting to
quantity discount and other cost savings.
Ability to raise capital at cheaper cost
Acquisition by another firm is one way that shareholders can remove managers with whom they are
unhappy.
Demerits of mergers and acquisitions







It is hard to estimate synergies using discounted cashflow techniques
Synergies projected for M & A's are not achieved in most cases.
A small percentage of all M & A's will earn their predetermined cost of capital.
In the first six months of a merger, productivity may fall by as much as 50%.
The average financial performance of a newly merged company is graded as C - by the respective
Managers.
In acquired companies, there is likely to be a high chance of employees’ turnover for the first years of
operations.
There are complex accounting, tax, and legal effects when one firm is acquired by another.
1. Assess and plan mergers and acquisitions as an alternative growth strategy by analysing:
iv. Qualities of an appropriate acquisition strategy
[Learning outcomes a. iv]
The acquisition of one firm by another is, of course, an investment made under un- certainty.
A clear M&A strategy- A structured approach to M&As is key to its success, both the predator and the target
should have a structured strategy to go about uniting. All too often strategies are incomplete, focusing on the
requirements of the purchaser, without integrating the different market demands on the acquisition Incomplete
strategies.
Mergers and Acquisitions : 25
Decision on type and level of integration- There should be a perfect match between the level of integration
required for the specific purpose of a merger or acquisition.
Managing cultural and system integration- An integration strategy has as its goal to create synergies or to
establish a third company and managing. Integration of organisational cultures and systems is therefore seen as
critical.
Conflict resolution and team building should have high priority.
Focusing on key priorities
Carrying out a proper due diligence- Due diligence should be carried out to validate the value of the deal, to
identify potential risks and opportunities. both parties identify any legal risks associated with the mergerby carrying
legal due diligence.
Regulators considerations-There are several regulatory considerations when performing M&A. In some cases,
there is a need to obtain specific approvals from an M&A transaction from government regulatory bodies, especially
when the company is part of core economic activities of the country like banking, insurance, electricity or water
supply. government agencies exist that ensure industries stay competitive. M&A transactions usually present a
possibility of collusion between firms, to raise price and create a monopoly situation. Some countries have stringent
labour laws, which need to be taken into account before M&A transaction take place.
1. Assess and plan mergers and acquisitions as an alternative growth strategy by analysing:
v. Factors that determine the success of a merger or acquisition
[Learning outcomes a. v]
For M&A strategy to be successful it has to results to merits of M&A such a as to increase market share, ensure
synergies etc as discussed in learning outcomes a. iii. The following factors determines the success of Mergers
and acquisitions












Industry relatedness. One of the aims of the M&A is to minimise competition and to increase market share.
To easily achieve this, M&A deal has between companies operating in the same industry. This will make the
new company to have an extensive previous experience in M&As in the same industry.
Common marketing strategy- Merging companies is one factor but creating a common marketing strategy
among the merged companies is very important to ensure strategic adjustment and brand name recognition
on the market. This will make it easy for the newly developed products to penetrate the market.
Corporate culture convergence. the difficulties, the costs and the risks associated with the cross-cultural
contact should be managed and harmonised to bring about success of M&A. The cultures of the merging
companies should be compatible to be successfully integrated.
Managed employees’ resistance and
Integrated technological processes. Compatibility of IT system determines success of M&A strategy. A
well-integrated IT system will result to goal harmonisation and eventually goal congruence for the newly
formed company.
Efficiency in managing synergy. Related to the strategic adjustment, synergy takes place when two separate
entities can be managed more efficiently together than separately.
Portfolio diversification. of the key goal of M&A is to minimise risk in order create competitive advantage.
When properly diversified, M&A strategy is likely to result to this goal.
Strategic similarities
Retaining key executives post M&A stage. Executive departures post-M&A stage has a negative impact
on the performance of acquired firms.
Timing of M&A- Early positioning, that is companies that react earlier in the M&A wave have an advantage
to their competitors because they can benefit from information asymmetry
Mode of financing – Financing M&A from cheaper sources is likely to make it a success than using
expensive sources. On the other hand, using external sources such as raising new equity may have a
signalling impact on how management perceive position of the company.
Governmental participation. According to the economic theory, the transfer of capital on the market and the
market competition should improve the financial performance if environmental conditions rather than
ownership affect more the performance. When a government participates in M&A through say privatization, it
brings about the transfer of capital on the market and hence a success of M&A
2. Assess alternative valuation techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
i. Corporate and Competitive nature of an acquisition proposal.
[Learning outcomes b. i]
26
Global Business Environment
Usually, when an acquisition proposal is tabled, different regulations on takeovers will become active within a
corporation. These regulations vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, but their main aim is to secure the interests of
shareholders through controlling the directors. Such regulations may include:






All shareholders to be equally treated
Shareholders must be given an access to relevant information so that they can make informed decisions
Any action taken by the board must be approved by shareholders
Directors should act to the best interests of the shareholders and ignore thei personal interest once to the
company is put under takeover bid
An independent valuer should support valuation of assets
The assumptions on which prospective financial information has been prepared should be verified by
accountants
Generally, a company could either adopt shareholder or stakeholder models of regulations during M&A. A
shareholder model is mainly focusing at protecting the rights of shareholders. A stakeholder model considers the
interests of all stakeholders including employees, government, community suppliers, customers etc.
The issue of which model is better than the other is still debatable. While shareholders model appears to be more
economically efficient, stakeholder’s model appears to be more successful in dealing with agency problem and
managerial abuse of power.
2. Assess alternative valuation techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
ii. Existence of synergies through mergers.
[Learning outcomes b. ii]
Consider two firms which are about to merge, firm A and firm B in order to form a combined firm, firm AB. In this
scenario, synergy will be the excess of value of combined firm (value of firm AB) over the sum of value of individual
firms (value of firm A + Value of firm B). A well strategized M&A is likely to result to synergies in many ways. It is
important to understand these synergies in order to be able to determine the NPV of an acquisition candidate
(target). It should be noted that one approach of finding the NPV of an acquisition candidate is the difference
between the synergy from the merger and the premium to be paid. The following types of synergies are normally
considered.
Discounted cash flow model is used to value synergies from acquisition whereby the value of synergy is
determined as the present value of future cash flows expected from synergy. The future CF expected form synergy
is found by taking the difference between CFs of the combined firms and the sum of CFs of two separate firms.
These cash flows should be discounted by the required rate of return on the equity of the target.
i.
Revenue enhancement
Merging companies is sought to enhance revenue through market power, market gains and strategic gains.
Enhancement of revenue through market power can be realised in the following ways
 Monopolistic power that eliminates competition
 Innovation
 Quick access to new market
 Acquisition of valuable, rare and scarce resource.
Market gains can be realized through
 Activating previously ineffective media programming and advertising efforts
 Strengthening channel of distribution
 Balancing the product mix
Strategic gains refer to the potentiality of taking advantage of the competitive environment if certain
situations materialize.
ii.
Cost reduction
This can be attained through
 Economies of scale – ability to lower production cost due producing in large volume.
 Economies of scope - ability to lower cost due to complementary resources
iii.
Lower taxes,
Some acquisitions are aimed at lowering taxes though the following ways
 Net operating loss from say a target can offset net operating income of say a predator resulting to low
taxable income for the combined.
 The use of unused debt capacity- it should be noted that interest on debt is a tax allowable expense.
This is to say, it reduces taxable income for a particular firm.
Mergers and Acquisitions : 27
Tax advantages on capital gain as opposed to dividend. The use of surplus funds to acquire shares
of another firm is likely to lower taxability because in many jurisdictions, capital gain is taxed at lower
rate relative to dividends
Lower cost of capital- This is because issuing cost of securities becomes smaller as many securities are
issued due to economies of scale. It is relatively cheaper to issue many shares than issuing few shares.

iv.
2. Assess alternative valuation techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
iii. The problem of overvaluation of the target firm.
[Learning outcomes b. iii]
Over valuation problem
This situation occurs when the computed value of a target or any other firm higher than the real value of the firm.
The said problem is normally influenced by market inefficiency. Despite the fact that capital markets are generally
considered to be semi strongly efficient, i.e. prices reflect all publicly available information, yet the market does not
fully understand the information available and hence a tendency of overestimating potential returns and overpricing
equity. A Target firms are often overvalued because of:



Over optimism with regard to economies of scale
Anticipation of gains due synergies
The target share price may involve open auction and highest bidder being the purchaser
It is expected that the price of overvalued firm will eventually be corrected by the market however such corrections
may not happen if:


There is a collusion between company managers, commercial banks, auditors and law firms
Managers provide data that deliberately misleading
When managers are reluctant to correct an overvaluation problem, the situation may force them to
 Use aggressive accounting practices so as to produce desired results
 Making poor business decisions so as to portray success
 Use equity that is unrealistically overvalued to finance repurchase and hence poor acquisition decisions
Since there are chances that financial information provided by managers might be deliberately misstated in order to
give a desired impression, there is a need to analyze and adjust such information appropriately before relying on
them.
2. Assess alternative valuation techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
iv. The impact of acquisition or mergers upon the risk profile of the acquirer.
[Learning outcomes b. iv]
These impacts could be positive or negative
Positive impacts of acquisitions


The company’s overall cost of capital may decrease as a result of improvement of credit rating after M & A
Bankruptcy risk may decrease as well. When companies get combined, the expected synergies and a match
between their assets may enhance its value and hence a decrease in the possibilities of bankruptcy
Negative impacts upon risk profile of the acquirer


Over optimistic assessment of economies of scale causes synergetic gains to be lower than expected.
Acquiring company usually pays a premium over the market value of the company being acquired
Reasons for the failure of combinations






Over optimistic assessment of economies of scale
In ability to implement amalgamation efficiency
In adequate preliminary investigation
Focusing at next target soon after combination instead of focusing at realising expected synergies
Challenges in valuation
Winners curse- when there is competition between two acquires, the winner has to pay extra price (premium)
in order to secure the deal.
28
Global Business Environment
2. Assess alternative valuation techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
v. Growth levels of the target firm’s earnings
[Learning outcomes b. v]
Estimating growth levels of target firm’s earnings:
Prior valuing a target for an acquisition, it is important hen valuing a company, it important to determine growth
rate. Various approaches can be used to estimate the growth rate of a target firm. These approaches include


1.
estimation of growth rate through extrapolation of past values,
Using earnings retention model to estimate growth rate
Growth rate through extrapolation of past values
This involves the computation of compounded annualized growth rate in company's revenues, earnings, and
dividends. Previous trend is analyzed and used to extrapolate future growth. It assumes that the past patterns of
growth in dividend is likely to continue in the future.
1/n
–1
Note: n stands for number of growths and not years
Given below is the trend of CRDB’s Bank plc for the past 6 years. You are required to extrapolate growth rate in
earnings.
Year
20X7
EPS in TSHS
530
20X6
430
20X5
370
20X4
260
20X3
250
20X2
180
Solution
1/5
1/n
–1
1/n
–1
–1
This approach is however challenged on the following grounds


2.
With historical estimates, there is a need to decide on how far can someone go back to trace earnings of
the earliest period? The more someone goes back, the higher the possibilities of including conditions which
are no longer relevant for the future.
If growth in earnings is volatile, it becomes challenging to predict long term growth rate even if the past
conditions will prevail in the future.
Estimation of growth rate using retention model
Long-term growth rate
Mergers and Acquisitions : 29
This approach uses earnings retention model together with cost of equity (Ke). Ke derived using CAPM is regarded
to be a fair estimation of long-term growth. Using this approach, growth will be determined as follows
g=bxr
Where,



g = growth rate
b = retention rate, i.e. (1 – dividend pay-out rate)
r = rate of returns, in this case Ke
Short term growth rate
Short term growth can also be estimated using earnings retention model together with accounting rate of return
(ARR). ARR is regarded to be a fair estimation of returns in the short run. Using this approach, growth will be
determined as follows
g=bxr
Where,



g = growth rate
b = retention rate, i.e. (1 – dividend pay-out rate)
r = rate of returns, in this case AR
1. Post tax rate of return is 10% and capital invested is Tshs 100m.
Growth = Capital invested x Post tax rate of return
= Tshs 100 million x 10%
= Tshs s10 million
2. Rate of return is 10% and capital invested in Tshs 200 million.
Growth = Tshs 200 million x 10%
=Tshs 20 million
3. Rate of return is 15% and capital invested is Tshs 200 million.
Growth = Tshs 200 million x 15%
= Tshs 30 million
From the above example we can conclude that the net earnings of a company depend upon the capital invested
and the post-tax rate of return obtained by the company. Any increase in either of the capital invested or post tax
rate of return will increase the earnings of the company. Dividend is paid out of net earnings of the company.
Hence, we can assume that the dividend growth depends upon the post-tax return on equity and the proportion of
profits reinvested i.e. retained earnings in the company.
Tip
Higher the retention ratio, higher will be the growth rate.
3. Assess alternative valuation techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
vi. Valuation of Type I, II, and III acquisitions.
[Learning outcomes b. vi]
Valuation techniques are important part of M&A since they have to do with shareholders wealth maximisation. To
maximise shareholders wealth, acquisition price should not be more than value of the target. Once a takeover is
initiated, a valuation of target firm will be the next move in order to know offering price.
If target is a listed company, the acquirer will bid, and takeover will be successful if the bid is accepted by target’s
shareholders. However, if target is not a listed company, the acquirer will bid and for takeover price to be
successful, it must be negotiated with the existing shareholders. Target’s valuation therefore becomes a critical part
of M&A process since it has an implication on the price to be paid by acquirer and in case this price is higher than
benefits of a target firm, then the wealth of acquiring firm’s shareholders will not be maximised.
30
Global Business Environment
For the purpose of target’s valuation, there are three types of acquisitions and each has its own implication on
value of the target. These classifications depend on the effect that M&A transaction has on business and financial
risk.



Type I valuation- with this type of valuation, target firm’s exposure to both business and financial risk is not
affected.
Type II valuation- with this type of valuation, target firm’s exposure to business risk is not affected but
financial risk exposure is affected.
Type III valuation- with this type of valuation, target firm’s exposure to both business and financial risk is
affected.
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tĂLJƐŽĨǀĂůƵŝŶŐ
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ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ
dLJƉĞ///ǀĂůƵĂƚŝŽŶ
1.
Type I valuation
There are several techniques to value business and having a single value in near to impossible. His is because
each valuation model is based on different assumptions and inputs. As a result, value of a firm is usually given as a
range of values as opposed to one single value. The following models can be applied to value a type I firm





Book value or Net Asset Approach
Market relative models (P/E Ratio model,
Dividend Valuation Models and Free cash flow models
Economic value added (EVA)
Market value added approach (MVA)
Net asset approach- (Type I valuation)
i.
With this approach, value of the firm is obtained as the excess of company’s assets over liabilities
VF = Total Assets – Total Liabilities
Assets values can be



Book values, usually for monetary assets
Replacement cost, usually for non-monetary assets and/or
Net realisable value for non-monetary assets as well.
NAV model works well where



Firm being valued is small
Most of its assets are tangible
Goodwill is not significant
Mergers and Acquisitions : 31



Discounted cash flows are difficult to be applied
Resource based companies
Investment companies
Challenges with net asset valuation model are



it does not consider the true value of intangibles
Replacement cost cannot be easily found in practice
The firm is more than sum of its constituent parts. To take care of this, the acquirer and the target will agree on
the multiplier which will be multiplied with annual profit or turnover and added to the value of assets.
ii.
Market relative models
a.
Price earnings ratio method
With P/E ratio method, target firm’s value is determined by multiplying company’s most recent earnings by
industry’s average price earnings ratio.
b.
Market to book ratio /Tobin’s Q ratio
This method involves computation of target company’s book value and then multiplying such a book value to
market to book ratio of the industry’s average or market to book ratio of any chosen benchmark.
Value of the company = target company’s book value X market to book ratio of the benchmark
iii.
Dividend Valuation Models and Cash flow models
a. Dividend Valuation model DVM
The DVM are based on the premise that the market value of ordinary shares represents the sum of the expected
future dividend flows, to infinity, discounted to present value. The only cash flows that investors ever receive from a
company are dividends and capital gains.
 If a shareholder intends to hold a share for one year. A single dividend will be paid at the end of the holding
period, d1. To Derive the value of a share at time 0 to this investor (P 0), the future cash flows, d1 and P1,
have to be discounted at a rate which includes an allowance for the risk class of the share, k e. then
P0 = [d1/ (1 + ke)] + [P1/(1 + ke)]
 If the shareholder intends to hold the share to infinity and the firm is assumed to pay dividend to infinity,
then

If dividends are expected to grow at the constant rate, then P0 = [d1/ (ke – g)]
In any other situation, just observe cash flow characteristics and find the PV in order to get value of the share and
eventually value of the firm after multiplying with number of shares.
b. Free cash flow approach
Free CFs involves working backwards from earnings before interest and tax. A negative free CF is not bad
because it could be an indicator that the company is investing more in capital expenditure and therefore an
indication of future growth. There are two ways of valuing a target firm using free CF approach


Approach 1: Discounting free CFs before interest using WACC to obtain NPV and then subtracting value of
the debt to obtain value of target firm.
Approach 2: Discounting free CFs after interest using cost of equity (ke) to obtain value of target firm.
There is no need of subtracting the value of debt under approach 2 since FCF excludes interest on debt
32
Global Business Environment
Dodo co. Ltd is a firm whose CFs after tax but before interest are specified below
Year
20X6
After tax (before interest CFs)
TSHS million
530
20X7
620
20X8 onwards
710
Dodo co. has received a bid to be acquired by Sarwart Co at TSHS 2800 million. Both companies have a gearing
level of 20%. Currently, Dodo co has 8% irredeemable bond of TSHS 410 million trading at per i.e. TSHS 100 per
bond. Tax rate is at 30%
Dodo company’s risk premium is 7% and the company’s equity beta is 2.0 while risk free rate is standing at 5%.
Required:
a. Find value of Dodo co basing on free CFs before interest
b. Find value of Dodo basing on free CFs after interest
c. What is the significance of values computed above given the bid received from Sarwart?
Solution
a. Approach 1: Discounting free CFs before interest using WACC to obtain NPV and then subtracting value of
the debt to obtain value of target firm.
Ke (using CAPM) = 5% + 2 × (7%) = 19%
Kd =
i  (1  T ) 8%  (1  0.3)

 5.6 %
P0
100
WACC = 19% × 0.80 + 5.6% × 0.20 = 16.32%
After tax (before interest CFs)
Year
20X6
TSHS million
530
20X7
620
20X8 onwards
710
PV as at Y3 20X8
3674.948
DF at 19.32%
PVs
0.8381
444.2
0.7024
435.5
0.5887
Value of the firm before debt
2,163.3
3,042.9
Less: debt value
Value of the firm
410.0
2,632.9
b. Approach 2: Discounting free CFs after interest using cost of equity (ke) to obtain value of target firm. There
is no need of subtracting the value of debt under approach 2 since FCF excludes interest on debt
After tax (before interest CFs)
Year
20X6
TSHS million
530
20X7
620
20X8 onwards
710
PV as at Y3 20X8
3736.842
Value of the firm before debt
c. As it has been noted from a and b above,
DF at 19%
PVs
0.8403
445.4
0.7062
437.8
0.5934
2,217.5
3,100.7
Mergers and Acquisitions : 33


If Dodo will be valued basing on approach one i.e Discounting free CFs before interest using WACC to
obtain NPV and then subtracting value of the debt to obtain value of target firm, then the company’s value
will be 2,632.9 million which is lower than the asking price of TSHS 2800 million. The target will therefore
be said to be overvalued
On the other hand, using approach 2, the target company is undervalued by 300.7 million (i.e. TSHS
3,100.7million vs. TSHS 2,800 million)
iv. Economic value added (EVA)
This is an estimate of economic profit that is derived by taking net operating income less cost of capital employed
EVA = Net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) – (WACC × book value of capital employed)
Various adjustments may be made on NOPAT such as



Adding the value of intangibles
Adding back goodwill written off and accounting depreciation but instead deducting economic
depreciation. Economic depreciation is a measure of the actual decline in the market value of the assets.
Net interest on debt capital – debt is included in capital employed and the cost of debt is included in the
WACC.
v. Market value added approach (MVA)
MVA is the excess of market value of debt and equity over book value of Debt and equity
MVA = Market value of debt + Market value of equity – Book value of equity – Book value of debt
MVA shows how much management of the company has added to the value initially provided by capital holders.
MVA of the company is also related to EVA such that the present value of company’s EVA. If the market and book
value of debt is the same, then MVA measures the difference between market value of a common stock and the
equity capital of the firm.
2. Type II Valuation
Recall: Type II acquisitions affects only the financial risk, but business risk remains unaltered. When the level of
gearing changes, levered beta changes resulting to a change in ke basing on CAPM model.
Therefore, adjusted present value model is used to compute value of target firm under type II approach. The target
firm’s value is obtained by discounting its free cash flows by unlevered cost of equity and then adding the present
value of the tax shield.
3. Valuation of type III acquisitions
Recall: Type II acquisitions affects both financial risk and business risk






2.
Step 1: Calculate the asset beta of both companies.
Step 2: Calculate the average asset beta for the new combined company after the acquisition.
Step 3: Repeat this beta to reflect the post-acquisition gearing of the new combined company.
Step 4: Calculate the combined company’s WACC.
Step 5: Discount the post-acquisition free cash flows using the WACC.
Step 6: Calculate the NPV and discount the value of debt to give the combined company’s value of equity
Assess alternative valuation techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
vii. Valuation of Intangible Assets.
[Learning outcomes b. vii]
The valuation of intangible assets and intellectual capital is one of the trickiest parts. This is because it is difficult to
clearly establish net gains brought by the intangibles to the firm. Valuation of intangibles can be looked at from two
perspectives. Valuation of all Intangible assets of an entity or valuation of individual intangible assets.
34
Global Business Environment
Market to book values model
ůůŝŶƚĂŶŐŝďůĞƐ
Calculated intangible values (CIV)
Lev’s knowledge earnings method
sĂůƵĂƚŝŽŶŽĨ
ŝŶƚĂŶŐŝďůĞƐ
Relief from royalty method
Premium profits method
/ŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂů
ŝŶƚĂŶŐŝďůĞ
Capitalization
method
of
earnings
Comparison
with
transaction method
market
A.
Valuation of all Intangible assets of an entity
Three common models can be used to value all intangible assets of an entity:



1.
Market to book values model
Calculated intangible values (CIV)
Lev’s knowledge earnings method
Market to book values model
Here, the difference between the book value of tangible assets and the market value of the firm is regarded as
value of intangibles.
If Tangwing plc has a market value of TSHS 12,000 million and its book value is TSHS 9,000 million, then the value
of intangibles in this case will be TSHS 3,000 million
2.
Calculated intangible values (CIV)
CIV model is based on the argument that the extra profit generated by a company with intangibles is due to the
existence of those intangibles. Therefore, there is a need to identify a benchmark. In practice, identification of a
benchmark is difficult. Again, for the method to result to a more precise value, a competitor/ benchmark should
have no intangibles but in practice it is impossible to find such a competitor.
Applying this model involves several steps:






Identify a suitable competitor/industry average for benchmarking the rate of return on assets (ROA)
Find competitors or industry’s average rate of return
Compute company’s value of spread. Obtained as a difference between company’s operating profit and the
value obtained by taking company’s assets base multiplied by competitors ROA
Find the predicted post tax value of spread at T 1
Find CIV by calculating the PV of all spreads expected to infinity, assuming that the company will operate to
infinity, otherwise as specified in the scenario.
Firms value will then be asset base plus CIV
Leteraha co Ltd is a company specialised in information research and development for on line marketing. The
company is rich in intangible assets and the owners are keen to establish the value of such intangibles using CIV
method.
Leteraha’s income statement for the previous year shows an operating profit of TSHS 687Million and the
company’s statement of financial position showed an asset base of TSHS 1,560 Million. Short-term growth in
earnings is expected to be at the rate of 4% and the firm’s weighted average cost of capital is 7%.
Mergers and Acquisitions : 35
Sweetners co Ltd has been identified as an appropriate competitor for Leteraha Co Ltd. Sweetners had a profit of
TSHS 1,250million for the past year and an asset base of TSHS 7,800million. Corporate tax is at 30%.
Find,
a. Value of intangible assets
b. Total value of assets
Solution
a)
Applying the steps identified earlier on

Sweeteners’ co Ltd is a suitable competitor

Competitor’s average rate of return
= 16%

Compute company’s value of spread.
= operating profit – (company’s assets base X competitors ROA)
= TSHS 687Million- (1,560 Million X 16%)
= TSHS 109.92 million

Find the predicted post tax value of spread at T 1
= TSHS 109.92 X (1-0.3) X (1 + 0.04)
= TSHS 80.02 million

Find CIV by calculating the PV of all spreads expected to infinity, assuming that the company will operate
to infinity, otherwise as specified in the scenario.
= TSHS 1,143.2 million
Therefore, basing on the calculated intangible value (CIV) model, the value of intangible assets is estimated to be
TSHS 1,143.2 million
b)
Total value of assets
= TSHS 1,560 Million + TSHS 1,143.2 million
= TSHS 2703.2 Million
Problems with the CIV approach


2.
It uses average industry ROA as a basis for computing excess returns, which may be distorted by extreme
values.
The choice of discount rate to apply to the excess returns to value the intangible asset needs to be made
with care. To ensure comparability between companies and industries, some sort of average cost of capital
should perhaps be applied. This again has the potential problems of distortion.
Lev’s knowledge earnings method
An alternative method of valuing intangible assets involves isolating the earnings deemed to be related to
intangible assets and capitalizing them. However, it is more complex than the CIV model in how it determines
the return to intangibles and the future growth assumptions made.
In practice, this model does produce results that are close to the actual traded share price, suggesting that is a
good valuation technique.
However, it is often criticized as over complex given that valuations are in the end dependent on negotiation
between the parties. To apply this model, steps below are adopted
36
Global Business Environment

Step 1: Computation of normalised earnings

Step 2: Separate earnings driven by other assets so as to remain with earnings driven by the intangibles

Step 3: Capitalise the value of intangible earnings
Hope plc is an exploration company based in Mtwara region. Currently the company incurs heavy spending in
exploring oil and gas reserve in the region. The company has normalised earnings of TSHS 700 million.
Hope plc’s monetary assets value has been established as TSHS 50 million while the firm’s tangible assets
amounts to TSHS 1850 million. The company’s cost of capital and growth rate is currently standing at 12% and
10% respectively. The growth rate is expected to fall to 5% from year six onwards. The current risk-free rate is 4%
and the industry’s average returns for the firms trading on the basis of their intangible assets are currently at 7%.
Calculate the value of Hope plc’s intangible assets using Lev’s knowledge earning method.
Solution:

Step 1: Computation of normalised earnings
Given in the question as TSHS 700 million

Step 2: Separate earnings driven by other assets so as to remain with earnings driven by the intangibles
TSHS million
Normalised earnings
Less: Return on financial/monetary assets (50 x 4%)
Returns on tangible assets
(1,850m x 7%)
Earnings driven by intangible assets

700
(2)
(129.5)
568.5
Step 3: Capitalise the value of intangible earnings
In order to capitalise the earnings o TSHS 568.5, there is a need to establish growth for each year
g (Y1 to Y5)
= 10%
g (Y1 to infinity) = 5%
CF, g=10% Y1-Y5 and 5% Y6 onwards
568.5
Year1
625.4
0.8929
558.35
Year2
687.9
0.7972
548.38
Year3
756.7
0.7118
538.59
Year4
832.3
0.6355
528.97
Year5
915.6
0.5674
519.52
0.5066
4,916.90
7,610.70
970.51
Y6 to infinity* PV = CF/r
9,705.09
Capitalised value of intangible earnings
Valuation of individual intangible assets
Here, the following methods can be applied




Relief from royalty method
Premium profits method
Capitalization of earnings method
Comparison with market transaction method
1.
Relief from royalty’s method
With this method, value of the intangible asset will simply be given as

PVs
Now
Year6 onwards*
B.
Discount factor at 10%
Value obtainable from licensing out the right to intangible asset to the third party
Mergers and Acquisitions : 37

Royalties that the owner of intangible asset is relieved from paying just by being the owner rather than the
licensee

A notional royalty rate is estimated as a percentage of revenue expected to be generated by the intangible
asset. The estimated royalty stream can then be capitalized, for example by discounting at a risk-free
market rate, to find an estimated market value.

This relatively simple valuation method is easiest to apply if the intangible asset is already subject to
licensing agreements. If they are not, the valuer might reach an appropriate figure from other
comparable licensing arrangement.
2.
Premium profits method

The premium profits method is often used for brands. It bases the valuation on capitalization of the extra
profits generated by the brand or other intangible asset in excess of profits made by businesses lacking the
intangible asset or brand.
The premium profits specifically attributable to the brand or other intangible asset may be estimated (for
example) by comparing the price of branded products and unbranded products. The estimated
premium profits can then be capitalised by discounting at a risk-adjusted market rate.

3.
Capitalization of earnings method
With the capitalised earnings method, the maintainable earnings accruing to the intangible asset are
estimated. An earnings multiple is then applied to the earnings, taking account of expected risks and
rewards, including the prospects for future earnings growth and the risks involved. This method of valuation is
often used to value publishing titles.
4.
Comparison with market transaction method

This method looks at actual market transactions in similar intangible assets. A multiple of revenue or
earnings from the intangible asset might then be derived from a similar market transaction.

A problem with this method is that many intangible assets are unique, and it may therefore be difficult to
identify 'similar' market transactions, although this might be done by examining acquisitions and disposals of
businesses that include similar intangible assets.
3. Assess alternative financing techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
i. Alternative approaches to financing mergers and acquisitions.
[Learning outcomes c. i]
An acquirer may finance an acquisition through the following ways.
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




Financing through Exchanging Stocks: In case a company wants to acquire another, it is to be assumed the
firm has abundant stock and a statement of financial position. This is to say, the acquiring firm exchanges its
stock for shares of the target firm. This financing option is relatively safe as the parties share risks equally. This
financing method works to acquirer’s advantage in case a target is undervalued, and it works to the target’s
advantage in case the target is overpriced.
Financing through debt Acquisition: In some circumstances, the target company may be struggling to meet
its outstanding debt commitments. This situation may be the driving force behind a sale because and the
seller’s priority in this case is to reduce the risk of additional losses by entering into a merger or acquisition with
a company that can pay the debt. From the acquirer’s point of view, sale value is reduced or eliminated, and it
becomes an incentive to bargain a lower sales value.
Paying in Cash: While cash may be perceived to be the most convenient and instantaneous financing
approach, the price of a target may be very significant making it difficult to raise the required cash amount. This
option requires an acquirer to maintain sufficient liquidity in order to finance the acquisition.
Initial Public Offerings: Prospects from M&A might bring about investor’s excitement on an initial public
offering, making IPO an excellent way for a company to raise funds at that time. The prospects may result to an
increase in share price and therefore possibilities of raising more funds. However, this method Is riskier in the
sense that market volatility may cause the price to drop.
Issuance of Bonds: An acquirer may issue time-definite bonds with a predetermined interest rate or any other
bond that seems convenient at the time of acquisition. In this regard, the acquirer may issue Redeemable,
Irredeemable or convertible bond. This option becomes suitable to the acquirer if the market does not want
high interest and is willing to buy bonds at premium.
Loans: Due to high expectations, borrowing money during M&A may be costly. An acquirer normally seeks the
cheapest loan option to supplement the need for funds.
38
Global Business Environment
3. Assess alternative financing techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
ii. An offer for acquisitions.
[Learning outcomes c. ii]
Attractiveness of an acquisition offer depends on potentials of future growth. An acquirer prefers companies with
growth potential after a merger. An acquirer will see the possibilities of merging with low end performers or highend performers rather than average performing companies. Below are determinants of attractiveness of an
acquisition offer.
Growth: Companies with much higher or much lower growth than the average are the most likely to become
acquisition targets. Companies growing at a rate that is on average similar to industry growth are less likely to be a
target of an acquisition.
Profitability: Private companies with much higher or much lower profitability than the average are the most likely to
become acquisition targets. Public companies with much lower profitability than the average are most likely to
become targets.
Leverage: Private companies with much higher leverage than the average are the most likely to become
acquisition targets. Public companies with much lower leverage than the average are the most likely to become
acquisition targets.
Size: Private companies that are much larger or smaller than the average are the most likely to become acquisition
targets. Public companies that are much smaller than the average are more likely to become acquisition targets.
Liquidity: Lower levels of liquidity indicates difficulties in running a company. Target companies have lower levels
of liquidity than non-target companies.
Valuation: Public companies with lower valuation multiples than the average are the most likely to become
acquisition targets.
3. Assess alternative financing techniques for mergers and acquisitions by analysing:
iii. Effect of an offer on financial position and performance.
[Learning outcomes c. i]
An acquisition offer, and the process tend to affect both financial position and performance of both acquirer and the
target in different ways as discussed below. In M&A transactions, financial position of the acquirer tends to have
long-term effects as compared to the target’s effects.
Financial position effect to the acquiring company
For the acquirer, the impact of an M&A transaction depends on the deal size relative to the company’s size. The
larger the potential target, the bigger the risk to the acquirer. A company may be able to withstand the failure of a
small-sized acquisition, but the failure of a huge purchase may severely jeopardize its long-term success. The
acquirer’s capital structure will change, depending on how the M&A deal was financed. If entirely financed by debt,
then percentage of debt to equity will increase. If financed by cash, then company’s cash position will be affected.
Financial position effect to the acquiring company
M&A transaction gives target company’s shareholders an opportunity to cash out at a significant premium,
especially if the transaction is an all-cash deal. If the acquirer pays partly in cash and partly in its own stock, the
target company’s shareholders get a stake in the acquirer, and thus have a vested interest in its long-term success.
In most cases, depending on market reaction, the target company’s shares will rise to a level close to that of the
acquirer’s offer.
Performance effect on the acquirer
Ideally, an acquirer’s future growth prospects and profitability should ideally be enhanced by the acquisitions it
makes. Empirical evidence suggests that experience and frequency of acquisitions by acquirer is relevant in
determining performance of the acquirer. Post‐acquisition financial performance of an acquirer is said to improve
significantly for organizations that had previous acquisition experience, acquired a higher percentage of a
target, or were older. Post‐acquisition performance decreased significantly for acquiring firms when target firms
contested an acquisition.
Mergers and Acquisitions : 39
Performance effect on the target
In cases where the acquirer has made a hostile bid for a target company, target’s management may recommend
that its shareholders reject the deal. One of the most common reasons cited for such rejection is that the target’s
management believes the acquirer’s offer substantially undervalues it. But such rejection of an unsolicited offer can
sometimes backfire, as it was the case for Yahoo who rejected Microsoft offer of $31 per share in 2008 but due to
credit crisis Yahoo shares were trading below $10 and it took almost 6 years for the company to beat Microsoft’s
offer.
Indicative Examination Questions
IEQ 1
TWIGA International, a company quoted on the Dar es Salaam stock exchange, has decided to diversify into a new
sector in order to reduce its risk. However, the company has not decided whether to diversify through acquisition of
an existing business in the new sector or to establish a new company (organic growth). TWIGA International has
cash balances of K240 million which are currently invested in short-term money market deposits.
The company has identified a possible acquisition target, SERENGETI Ltd, a smaller quoted company in the new
sector. Even though SERENGETI Ltd is quoted, approximately 60% of its shares are still owned by four directors.
These directors have stated that they might be prepared to recommend the sale of SERENGETI Ltd, but they
consider the total value of its shares to be worth K235 million. As a Finance Manager of TWIGA International, you
have been asked to establish if the value given by the directors is reasonable. The following financial information
has been provided:
Summarised financial data: Figures in TSHS million
Details
TWIGA
SERENGETI
Turnover
530
88
Pre-tax operating cash flow
101
55
Taxation (30%)
30.3
16.5
Post- tax operating cash flow
70.7
38.5
12
10.03
58.7
28.47
Non-current assets (net)
218
58
Current assets
185
54
Current liabilities
149
51
60
4.5
139
52.1
12% Debentures 20X7
40
0
10% Bank term loan
15
0
0
4.4
TSHS
885
TSHS 460
8% p.a.
10% p.a.
0.85
1.01
Average P/E ratio
9
Average P/E of companies recently taken over, based upon the offer
price
10
The risk-free rate of return is 7% per annum and the market return 15% per annum.
7
Dividend
Retained earnings
Statement of financial position
Liabilities and owners’ equity
Ordinary shares (TSHS 50 par for Twiga) and TSHS15 par for target
Reserves
Recent 11% bank loan
Current share price
Average dividend growth during the last five years
Equity beta
Industry data:
Other information:
5
40
Global Business Environment
1. After the acquisition some land and buildings of SERENGETI would be sold for K8 million (after tax).
2. Following the acquisition, it’s expected that 145 employees of SERENGETI would immediately be made
redundant at an after-tax cost of K10 million. Pre-tax annual wage savings are expected to be K1 million. Pretax advertising and distribution savings are expected to be K750, 000 per year.
3. The four existing directors of SERENGETI would each be paid an after-tax consultancy fee of
4. K500,000 per year for four years for consultancy services if the acquisition succeeds. This amount would not
increase with inflation.
Ignore inflation
Required:
a. Estimate the value of SERENGETI Ltd using the following valuation methods:
(i)
The comparative P/E
(ii)
The dividend valuation model
(iii)
The present value of relevant operating cash flows over a fifteen (15) year period.
b. Advise whether, TWIGA International should proceed with the acquisition of SERENGETI Ltd shares.
c. Explain whether diversification through mergers and acquisitions is an effective means of reducing risk and
securing future growth for TWIGA International.
Answer to IEQ 1
a. (i) P/E ratios
Since SERENGETI Ltd operates in a different sector, the comparative P/E ratio valuation must be based
upon the average P/E ratios in that sector. The P/E ratio of 5 will therefore be used.
Value of SERENGETI Ltd is K192.5 million (5 x 38.5m)
ii) Dividend valuation model
ke
Ke
Po
= Rf + β(E(Rm) – Rf)
= 7% + 1.01 (15% - 7%)
= 15.08%
= 10.03 (1.10)/0.1508 – 0.10
= TSHS 219.19 million
iii) Cash flow valuation method
TSHS million
Current pre-tax operating cash flow
Post -acquisition adjustments:
Annual wage savings
Advertising/distribution savings
55
Taxation (30%)
Annual post tax cash flow
1
0.75
56.75
17.02
39.73
The other post tax cash flows to be taken into account are:
1. Redundancy costs
2. Sale of land and buildings
3. Consultancy service (0.5m x 4)
Cost of capital
Market value (30 x 4.6)
Market value of debt
Total
Cost of debt
WACC
TSHS million
10
8
2
=TSHS 138.0
=TSHS 4.4
TSHS 142.4
= 11% x (1-0.3) = 7.7%
= 15.08% x 138/142.4 + 7.7% x 4.4/142.4
= 14.61 + 0.24
=14.85% Say 15%
Mergers and Acquisitions : 41
Discounted cash flows using 15% as discount rate:
Annual post tax cash flow (39.73 x 5.847)
Redundancy costs (10 x 1.000)
Sale of land & buildings (8 x 1.000)
Consultancy services (2 x 2.855)
Present value of cash flows
TSHS million
= 232.3
= (10)
=8
= (5.71)
= 224.59
Value of the company TSHS 224.59 million
b. Advice:
The three valuation methods have produced the price range of TSHS184.51million to TSHS197.44 million which is
below the proposed offer price of TSHS 235million. This may indicate that the company is over- priced by the
directors. The present value of the operating cash flows (which is possibly the best of the three approaches) gives
the lowest valuation of TSHS 184.51million suggesting further that SERENGETI Ltd could be overpriced.
TWIGA international can make a counter offer at this price and if the acquisition of SERENGETI Ltd would be in
line with TWIGA's long-term strategic objectives, then it is recommended that the acquisition should proceed.
However, it’s worth to note that the valuations methods used have limitations. For example, the present value
method has ignored any likely changes in the pattern of the cash flows following the acquisition as well as any
strategic plans that the company may have for such a long-time frame.
c. Explanation
A strategy of diversification does not always provide a sound rationale for merger or an acquisition. One problem is
that the synergies identified are often more difficult to achieve when two businesses, which are quite different in
nature are combined. Such differences may, for example, prevent TWIGA from benefiting from economies of scale
or the use of complementary resources. Similarly, although the management team of TWIGA may be highly
efficient and highly motivated, it may not have the necessary skills to replace the management team of the
Acquired business.
There may also be problems in trying to integrate the operations of two different kinds of business because of
differences in market need, business culture and so on. TWIGA has always been in the manufacturing industry and
the management team may therefore have a number of challenges adapting to the management of a company in a
completely new sector.
Diversification is a useful way of dealing with risk and it is therefore intuitively appealing to see mergers and
takeovers as a useful means to achieve this end. The question that must be asked however is whether the
directors of the company should diversify, or the shareholders should diversify individually. It is usually easier and
cheaper for the shareholders to diversify, by acquiring a diversified portfolio of shares than for the directors to
diversify. When the directors of a company diversify, by taking over another company, a significant premium is
often paid to the shareholders of the target company. This evidence by what the Directors of SERENGETI Ltd are
offering compared to the estimated value.
42
Global Business Environment
A3
SECTION A
Foreign Exchange Market : 43
GLOBAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
STUDY GUIDE A3: FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKET
Foreign exchange market brings key players of international business and global investments together, by
facilitating the transfer of capital and purchasing power globally. Foreign exchange market supports imports and
exports, foreign investment and facilitates allocation of scarce recourses worldwide. The market provides a forum
where multinational firms, international companies, commercial banks, traders and the public can convert their
domestic currencies to currencies of their demand and beyond that they can possibly transact assorted currencies
for profit. The globally operating companies can use the market for the purpose of hedging risks affecting their
foreign currency denominated transactions and balances. Further arbitrageurs, speculators and other business
men can actively engage in foreign currency transactions and record some financial benefits. Therefore, it would
not be treated a crime to contend that without the ability to trade in different currencies, companies’ prospects will
be limited and global economic growth will suffer.
Foreign exchange market is the largest, highly liquid and efficient market but without physical geographical
location. The market operates all over the world and conducts business round the clock due to timing differences
of major regions of the world. It operates electronically, and it is regarded as the most efficient market because the
prices reflect all information available to participants. In this course the traders cannot make supernormal profit in
the long run because the prices adjustment takes place instantly. The market is critically needed for international
trade and investments. It enables movement of major currencies of the world globally. Through this market prices
of different currencies can be determined and transfer of purchasing power between countries simplified. The
prices of different currencies can be determined through a number of systems, technically referred as to the
exchange rate regimes. Consequent to that the exchange rate can freely be determined by market forces or rigidly
fixed by country’s central bank. Some countries or blocks such as European Union (EU) have adopted single
currency system where the euro is used by member states. This is also the future for East Africa Community
(EAC). However, in practice the dirt float system is widely applicable where the exchange rate is established by
market forces of demand and supply, with untimely central bank intervention especially where excessive volatility
of domestic currency is experienced.
In this chapter of the study guide learners will gain an in-depth understanding of the nature, mode of operation,
functions and participants of the market and the roles played by each of the participants. The mechanics of
exchange rate quotations, how to determine and exploit the misalignments in the exchange rates to benefit from
arbitration transactions, theory and practices of exchange rate systems is of paramount importance and will be
explored, discussed and its application demonstrated.
a) Assess the nature, system of operation, characteristics and functions of foreign exchange market.
b) Evaluate roles and activities of different players in a foreign exchange market and apply relevant information to
determine different exchange rate quotations.
c) Apply relevant data and information to determine opportunities for bilateral and triangular arbitrage profit in the
foreign exchange transactions.
d) Evaluate exchange Rate Regimes and analyse Tanzanian Exchange rate policy and practices.
44
Global Business Environment
1. Assess the nature, system of operation, characteristics and functions of the foreign
exchange market
[Learning outcome a]
The foreign exchange market (Forex) is a global over the counter or online network market where traders buy and
sell currencies of different countries. In this market participants such as central banks, commercial banks, hedge
funds, brokers and traders, multinational corporations and international firms can ably buy, sell, speculate and
hedge on different currencies. The trading of currencies takes place without necessarily visiting physical
geographical located market. This implies that the foreign exchange transactions are mainly executed
electronically. The market operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week. It sets the exchange rates for currencies
with floating rates. It is considered the largest and most liquid market in the world. In the words of Francisco Javier
Fernández (2018):
“Foreign exchange market is a “decentralized worldwide market in which currencies are traded. It was
created in order to facilitate the flow of money derived from international trade. Today, it is the world’s
largest financial market, with an average daily volume of about $5 trillion, and is undergoing an
important and growing “electronification.”
Like any other commodities, currencies traded in a foreign exchange market have a price. The price at which
currencies are exchanged for other currencies is called exchange rate. Exchange rate or currency rate is the
central concept in the foreign exchange market and is defined as the price of one country’s currency
expressed in terms of another country’s currency. The exchange rate is crucially important for the operation
of the foreign exchange market. It plays an important role in international trade because it facilitates the
transfer of purchasing power necessary to purchase goods and services across countries.
Nature and operations of foreign exchange market
The foreign exchange market is not located in one place rather it is the framework of individuals, firms, banks and
brokers who buy and sell foreign currencies through electronic communication systems around the world. This
market has been growing at a rapid pace, reflecting a general growth in the volume of the cross-border trade and
investment. Foreign exchange markets tend to be located in nationals’ financial and business centres near the
local financial markets. The most important foreign exchange markets are found in London, New York, Tokyo,
Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris, Zurich, Toronto, Brussels, Milan, Singapore and Hong Kong. The aforementioned
financial market centres are termed as deep market given the huge volume of foreign exchange transaction done
per day while foreign exchange markets in most of the developing country including Tanzania are termed as
shallow market due to lower volume of foreign exchange transaction done over a given period of time.
There are four main foreign exchange operations undertaken in the foreign exchange markets: spot transaction,
forward deals, future transactions and currency options. In the spot market currencies are bought and sold for
immediate delivery. In the forward market, currencies are bought and sold at prices agreed now but for future
delivery at an agreed date. Not only delivery is made on the future date but also payment made at the agreed
future date. A detailed discussion on each of these operations is later provided in this study guide chapter.
Functions and characteristics of foreign exchange market
Foreign exchange market is the world's largest financial market which provides a number of benefits and
advantages to various participants. The benefits of foreign exchange market include liquidity and leverage
compared to stocks and futures markets. The foreign exchange market is arguably the best financial investment in
the currency market. It performs the following functions and offers several benefits as follows (i) facilitates
payments for goods and services internationally (ii) facilitates lending and borrowing across countries (iii) Provides
hedging facilitate for multinational firms and international traders (iv) facilitate reduction in transaction costs in the
process of exchange of goods and services among countries (v) facilitate efficient allocation of physical and
financial resources worldwide, and (vi) facilitate transformation of the risks of international assets and investments
abroad.
In order to perform these functions, the foreign exchange markets possess the following featured characteristics:
(i) Lower trading costs - investors dealing in stocks usually spend large amount of money before finally holding
an investment in a given company. This is not the case with the foreign exchange market whereby with just a few
amounts of currency (say Euro 250 or less); one can open a mini foreign exchange account and start trading. The
lower trading costs in the foreign market have made it possible for even small, individual investors to make decent
Foreign Exchange Market : 45
profits from foreign exchange trading. With lower costs, the possible losses are also much lower. Foreign
exchange trading usually has no commission fees unlike in other investments. The costs of foreign exchange
trading are limited to the spread or the difference between the selling and buying prices for a particular currency
pair.]
(ii) Excellent transparency - transparency means the free access to trading information. Foreign exchange
trading is a transparent process because the trader has full access to market data and information that are
necessary to perform successful transactions. The excellent transparency of the foreign exchange market means
that foreign exchange traders have more control over their investments and can decide what to do base on the
information available.
(iii) Superior liquidity - in a foreign exchange market, traders are free to buy and sell currencies of their own
choice. The superior liquidity of the foreign exchange market enables traders to easily exchange currencies
without affecting the prices of the currencies being traded. So whether you trade a few thousand dollars or several
million, you can be assured of the same currency prices during the time an order was placed and then executed.
The foreign exchange market's superior liquidity allows you to get the profits you expect at the time you made the
trade.
(iv) Strong market trends - foreign exchange traders make money by getting accurate market data and then
analysing the direction the market takes. The foreign exchange traders do this by relying heavily on trends and
trending in an attempt to predict the direction of the foreign exchange market. Most traders use technical analysis
to analyze past and present foreign exchange market data and then search for trends. Other financial markets use
trends and trending, but this characteristic is much stronger in the foreign exchange market. Due to strong
trending, foreign exchange markets are much easier to analyze and identify possible entry and exit positions
during trading.
Explain the meaning of foreign exchange market and discuss its main functions.
The operation of foreign exchange market in Tanzania
The officially regulated foreign exchange market in Tanzania is the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM).
The exchange rate between the Tanzania shilling and any of the foreign currencies are determined by the market
forces in the IFEM and the Bank of Tanzania (BOT) participates in the market primarily to meet its monetary policy
objectives. The Bank of Tanzania in its pursuit of monetary policy objectives structures its sales of foreign
exchange to smoothen transitory fluctuations in the exchange rate while continuing to meet government external
obligations as well as maintaining an adequate level of gross official reserves. In Tanzania, the recognized dealing
time in the IFEM runs from 9:00 hours to 15:00 hours from Monday to Friday except for Public Holidays or unless
otherwise communicated by the Bank.
Quotation of prices






Prices quoted by a dealer in the IFEM are deemed as firm unless they are expressed to be indicative prior to
quoting.
All members are obliged to present a binding two-way quote during trading hours while maintaining a
maximum spread of TSHS. 10.00 all the time. i.e., providing both bid and ask rates through Reuters.
The quoted price is good for amount of USD 250,000 (U.S Dollars two hundred fifty thousand). For amounts
above USD 250,000 the price maker can qualify the amount.
All members are obliged to regularly update their indicative two-way quote on Reuters’s screen during trading
hours and the Bank may intervene at those prices for an amount of up to USD 250,000.
Concluding a deal
When a dealer calls another dealer by displaying quotes price (bid/ask) without specifying the amount, the
USD 250,000 rule for a given quote price applies. Where a dealer calls for a firm quote, he/she will be required
to specify the amount but need not state whether the intention is to buy or sell.
In the IFEM, a transaction should be deemed concluded when one shows a firm price and the other deals at
that price.
2. Evaluate roles and activities of different players in a foreign exchange market and apply
relevant information to determine different exchange rate quotations
[Learning outcome b]
The main participants in a foreign exchange market can be categorised into four levels. The first-level are the
customers who includes tourists, importers, investors, individuals and so on. These are the immediate users and
suppliers of foreign currencies. The second-level are the commercial banks, which act as clearing houses between
users and earners of foreign currencies. The third-level are foreign exchange brokers through whom the nation’s
commercial banks even out their foreign exchange inflows and outflows among themselves. Finally, at
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the fourth and the highest level is the nation’s central bank, which acts as the lender or buyer of last resort when
the nation’s total foreign exchange earnings and expenditure are unequal. The central bank then either draws
down its foreign reserves or adds to them.
Roles and activities of different players in the foreign exchange market
(a) Customers - the individuals and international firms engaging in foreign trade participate in foreign exchange
markets through availability of the services of banks. Exporters require converting the foreign currencies into
Tanzania shillings and importers require converting Tanzania shillings into the foreign currencies denominating the
receipts and payments for their exports and imports respectively. Similar types of services may be required for
settling any international obligation i.e., payment of technical know-how fees or repayment of foreign debt, etc. The
customers can even need foreign currencies for overseas family trips and vacations.
(b) Commercial banks – These are the most active players and the market makers. Commercial banks engage
in the market for trading purposes and in facilitating international transactions and dealings, of different customers
especially those involved in international trade. Literally commercial banks have wide network of branches and act
as intermediary between exporter and importer situated in different countries. The banks buy foreign currencies
from exporters and sells foreign exchange to the importers of the goods and services and the general public
engage in international transactions not on the account of trade. The foreign exchange bought may not necessarily
be equal to the amount sold by banks at every point in time. In this case the banks are left with the overbought or
oversold position. If a bank buys more foreign exchange than what it sells, it is said to be in ‘overbought/plus/long
position’. In case bank sells more foreign exchange than what it buys, it is said to be in ‘oversold/minus/short
position’. If the bank is having oversold position it will buy from the market and if it has overbought position it will
sell in the market. In general terms commercial banks have following objectives for their active involvement in the
foreign exchange market:




They render better service by offering competitive rates to their customers engaged in international trade.
They are in a better position to manage risks arising out of exchange rate fluctuations.
Foreign exchange business is a profitable activity and thus such banks are in a position to generate more
profits for themselves.
They can manage their integrated treasury in a more efficient manner.
(c) Central banks – The country’s central bank is charged with the responsibility of maintaining the external value
of the domestic currency. The central banks participate in the foreign exchange to ensure stability of economic
policies and therefore that domestic currency’s value. The level and timing for engagement depends on the
exchange rate regime in use. If the country follows a fixed exchange rate system, the central bank has to take
necessary steps to maintain the parity. Even under floating exchange rate system, the central bank has to ensure
orderliness in the movement of exchange rates. Generally, this is achieved by the intervention of the bank.
Sometimes this becomes a concerted effort of central banks of more than one country.
In specific terms the central banks participate in the foreign exchange market for two main purposes:


Exchange rate management – in this case the central bank intervenes in the market in order to maintain the
external rate of domestic currency at a particular level or in a band so fixed. If a country, as a matter of policy,
follows fixed exchange rate system, the central bank is required to maintain exchange rate generally within a
well-defined narrow band. Whenever the value of the domestic currency approaches upper or lower limit of
such a band, the central bank intervenes to counteract the forces of demand and supply through intervention.
For floating exchange rate system, the intervention necessarily happens when there is excessive devaluation
of domestic currency. This why it argued that there is no a purely flexible exchange rate system because the
central banks sometimes will need to influence the supply of the foreign currencies to regulates her country’s
currency value.
Reserve management in this regard the central bank is concerned with the investment of the country’s foreign
exchange reserve in stable proportions in a range of currencies and in a range of assets in each currency. The
central banks do this to ensure the nation has a right proportion of foreign currencies for exportation and for
meeting other foreign transactions.
(d) Exchange brokers - Foreign exchange brokers play a very important role in the foreign exchange markets.
However, the extent to which services of foreign exchange brokers are utilized depends on the tradition and
practice prevailing at a particular foreign exchange market centre. Brokers works as follows in the foreign
exchange market: Banks seeking to trade display their bid and offer rates on their respective pages of Reuters
screen, but these prices are indicative only. On inquiry from brokers they quote firm prices on telephone. In this
way, the brokers can locate the most competitive buying and selling prices, and these prices are immediately
broadcast to a large number of banks by means of hotlines/loudspeakers in the banks dealing room/contacts many
dealing banks through calling assistants employed by the broking firm. If any bank wants to respond to these
prices thus made available, the counter party bank does this by clinching the deal. Brokers do not disclose counter
party bank’s name until the buying and selling banks have concluded the deal. Once the deal is struck the broker
Foreign Exchange Market : 47
exchange the names of the bank who has bought and who has sold. The brokers charge commission for the
services rendered.
(e) Speculators, Arbitrageurs and Hedgers - These are major participants in the foreign exchange but with
different motives. Arbitrageurs, traders and hedgers seek to reduce (or eliminate, if possible) the exchange risks by
“locking in” the exchange rate on future trade or financial operations.
Speculators participate in the market with a view of making profit on account of favourable movement in exchange
rate, take position i.e., if they feel the rate of particular currency is likely to go up in short term. They buy that
currency and sell it as soon as they are able to make a quick profit. The speculators will only benefit if their
expectations meets reality. If the expected rate is different from the actual rate, the speculators suffer loss.
Similarly, Companies mainly Multinational Corporations have trading activities beyond their national borders in
relation to their cash flows exposure. Given the large nature of these companies and being involved in multicurrencies dealing, they get into foreign exchange exposures. With a view to take advantage of foreign rate
movement in their favour they either delay covering exposures or does not cover until cash flow materialize.
Sometimes they take position so as to take advantage of the exchange rate movement in their favour and for
undertaking this activity, they have state of the art dealing rooms.
Hedgers on the other hand engage in the foreign exchange for hedging purposes. The multinational corporations
and international firms have their transactions denominated in different currencies of the world, and therefore are
exposed to currency risks. They then participate in the foreign exchange market in order to take a hedging
position. For example, the multinational firms, engage in forward contracts to protect the home currency value of
various foreign currencies dominated assets and liabilities.
Arbitrageurs seek to earn risk free profits by taking advantages of differences in exchange rate between one
location and another. The arbitrageurs will pursue a particular action if they notice inconsistency of exchange rate
between places. Contrary to speculators, arbitrageurs make a risk-free profit because they only take a particular
action when it is profitable to do so.
Exchange rate quotations
Exchange rate represents a price of one currency expressed in terms of another currency. It therefore provides
amount of one currency required to purchase a unit of another currency. Exchanged rate can further be defined as
the amount of one currency that can be exchanged per unit of another currency. The quotation TSHS 2350/US$
represents number of Tanzanian Shillings (TSHS 2350) need to exchange for one United States dollar (US$1).
The exchange rate could be quoted as to represent the amount of domestic currency needed or required to
acquire a unit of a foreign currency or the amount of the foreign currency required for a unit of a local (domestic)
currency. This is defined as direct and indirect exchange rate quotation in that order. So therefore, the direct
quotation dictates the amount of local or domestic currency required for a unit of foreign currency. On the other
hand, if the quotation offers units of foreign country required for purchasing a unit of domestic currency, it is
referred as indirect quote. Most countries around the world use direct quotation when quoting the spot price of
foreign currency.
In Dar es Salaam US dollar is quoted at TSHS.2250/1$. This is a direct quotation of US dollar against the TSHS
because it shows amount of local currency (TSHS) required for a unit of a foreign currency (US$). Now, if this
quote in Dar es Salaam is quoted at $0.00045/1TSHS, this is an indirect quotation of TSHS against the US dollar.
The bid - ask spread
Exchange rates are usually quoted in pairs, bid rate and ask rate. A bid is the rate at which a dealer is willing to
buy another currency. Therefore, it is the dealers’ buying rate. Ask rate is the price at which the dealer is willing to
sell a quoted currency. In this regard the quoted exchange rates consider the point of view of dealers (banks) and
customers are presumably price takers, except in cases of agreed rates. The difference between the ask rate and
bid price represent dealers’ transactions costs and profit, technically referred the bid-ask spread. The bid-ask
spread is defined as the difference between the two exchange rates (bid and ask rates) for a currency and is
regarded as the potential sources of profit for dealers (commercial banks) and brokers.
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The spread represents the difference between a bank/dealer`s buying (bid) and selling (offer or ask) rates in an
exchange quotation. The spread is used to cover the market markers’ costs and provide for their profits and
therefore its size will reflect the degree of risk associated with holding the currency in question. The level of the
spread is influenced or determined by the level of stability in the market; the Volume of business and degree of
volatility in exchange rate. Whether using the direct or indirect quote the smaller rate is the bid and the higher rate
is the offer. This spread is usually stated as a percentage cost of transacting in the foreign exchange market,
which is completed as follows:
Percent spread/ Transaction cost = (Ask price – Bid price)/Ask price x 100%
Pound sterling quoted at $1.6050 to $1.6060, and then the percentage spread will be:
Percent spread = (1.6060 – 1.6050)/1.6060 x 100% = 0.06%
The foreign exchange transactions
The foreign exchange dealers do not ŽŶůLJ ĞŶŐĂŐĞ ŝŶ ƐƉŽƚ ĐƵƌƌĞŶĐLJ ƚƌĂŶƐĂĐƚŝŽŶƐ͕ ƚŚĞLJ ĂůƐŽ ĞŶŐĂŐĞ ŝŶ ĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ
ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶ ĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞ ƚƌĂŶƐĂĐƚŝŽŶƐ͘ In addition to offering customers the services necessary for immediate delivery
transactions the spot market, banks in the foreign exchange market quote for and handles deals where currency is
to be delivered at a specified future date. I.e. the foreign exchange transactions could be for immediate delivery or
for future delivery of stated amount of a particular currency. It follows that we can have a spot transaction and
hence spot market and forward transactions hence forward market. In the spot market one buys a spot contact for
the exchange of one currency for another for immediate delivery. It is the market where exchange rate
transaction’s settlement is designed to be within two business days (excluding public holidays in the countries of
both currencies). The date of the actual payment of funds is called the value date. The exchange rate used for the
spot transaction is spot exchange rate as opposed to forward rate which is agreed on the date of contract but will
be used in the future specified period.
A forward exchange transaction involves agreement of the amount to be delivered and the rate to be used in a
specified future rate, agreed today. In the outright forward contract, an agreement is made at time zero (t=0) for
sale or buy of a currency at an agreed price for delivery to be made in the future (t=t 1). The exchange rate
applicable in forward transaction is called forward rate, which is agreed today for the exchange of stated amount of
a particular currency in a future period. Forward rate is fixed in the forward contract which is a binding contract
between a customer and a dealer for the purchase or sale of a specific quantity of stated foreign currency, at a rate
of exchange fixed at the time of making the contract, which could be for a month, two months, three month or 12
months to suit the needs of the parties to that contract. It follows that the forward transactions can be either for
speculative purposes or for hedging reasons. The multinational corporations and other business men often insure
their future payable or receivables denominated in foreign currencies by buying or selling the currencies of
payables and receivables forward, in that order. The main purpose of the forward market is to enable importers or
exporters to fix, at the time of a contract, a price for the purchase or sale of a fixed amount of foreign currency for
delivery and payment at a specified future time. This eliminates foreign exchange risk due to future exchange rate
fluctuations – the precise home currency amount to be paid or received is fixed.
If you have a payable denominated in Botswana Pula (BWP) 5,000 due in three months, you can enter into a
three-month forward contract, which is a forward transaction. The forward contract allows traders (parties) to agree
(fix) the rate that will be used to buy the foreign currency in question at maturity. This rate is referred as to forward
rate, which is the price you agree to pay in three months when the BWP 5,000 is supposedly delivered. The
forward contract therefore locks in the amount payable in domestic currency irrespective of changes in exchange
rate. If you agree a forward rate of TSHS 227.35/BWP to buy the BWP 5,000in three month, the amount payable in
domestic currency (TSHS) shall be TSHS 1,136,750 (i.e. TSHS 227.35/BWP* BWP 5,000), regardless of the
existing spot rate at that date.
In a typical forward transaction, for example a US company buys textiles from England with payment of t1 million
due in 90 days. The importer thus is short pounds that is, it owes pounds for future delivery. Suppose the pound is
$1.71 over the next 90 days, however pound might rise against the dollar, raising the dollar cost of the textiles. The
importer can guard against this exchange risk by immediately negotiating a 90 day forward contract with bank at a
Foreign Exchange Market : 49
price of say £ = $1.72. According to the forward contract, in 90 days the bank will give the importer t1 million
(which it will use to pay for its textiles order) and the importer will give the bank $1.72 million which is the dollar
equivalent to £1 million at the forward rate of $1.72/£.In technical terms, the importer is offsetting a short position in
pounds by going long in the forward market that is buying pounds future delivery.
The forward rate premium or discount [%]
It is defined elsewhere in this study guide that the rate quoted today for the settlement at some future date. It
denotes the rate of exchange at which a stated amount of a contracted currency (foreign or domestic currency) will
be exchangeable at a specific future date. Forward exchange rates are in most cases quoted as a two way price in
“forward swap points”. These points are the adjustments to be made to the spot price to achieve the applicable
forward exchange rate. These prices differentials are termed and could be either premium (pm) or discount (disc).
This helps to identifying whether the quoted currency s more expensive (at premium) or cheaper (at a discount) to
purchase on the forward date than on the spot value.
A foreign currency is said to be trading at a forward discount if the forward rate expressed in domestic currency
terms is less that the spot rate, whereas forward premium exists if the forward rate is above the spot rate. It follows
that the forward premium or discount is simply the amount by which the forward rate differs from the spot rate and
the size of the premium or discount depends on the differences in interest rates between the two currencies. In
simplistic terms, when a currency is more expensive in the forward market than it is now in the spot market in
terms of the base currency, the quoted currency is said to stand at a premium in the forward market relative to the
base currency. Conversely, the base currency is said to stand at a discount relative to the quoted currency.
If the spot exchange rate between South African Rand (ZAR) and Tanzanian Shillings (TSHS) is TSHS
177.81/ZAR, and the 1 month and 2months forward rates are TSHS 175/ZAR and TSHS 180.67/ZAR respectively;
it implies that the ZAR is trading at one-month discount because it is less expensive in the forward market that it is,
in the spot market. Accordingly, the ZAR is trading at 2 months forward premium because the spot rate is less than
the 2months forward rate.
The forward premium or discount can as well be expressed percentage wise. The % per annum cost of forward
cover is the annualised forward premium, which can be expressed as an annualised % deviation from the spot
rate.
The annualised forward premium (prem.) or discount (disc) is the percentage difference between the spot and
forward exchange rate, stated in annual percentage terms as.
FR  SR 360

 100
SR
n
Where: n is the maturity day in months
FR is the forward rate
SR is the spot rate.
If the resulting percentage value is positive it means the traded currency is at forward premium and the negative
value implies the traded currency is at forward discount.
The following information is given by Mapesatele a dealer in foreign currencies who operates from the Tanzanian
main business city, Dar es Salaam. The spot rate of exchange between Burundi Franc (BIF) is given at TSHS
1.75/BIF. The 90-day forward rate is given at TSHS 1.35/BIF. Required: determine whether the Burundi Franc is
trading at premium or discount and calculate the annualised premium/discount.
Solution
The given spot rate (TSHS 1.75/BIF) is greater than the 90-day forward rate (TSHS 1.69.BIF). The implication is
that the Burundi Franc (BIF) is less expensive in the forward market than it is the spot market. It is therefore
trading at a forward discount.
The annualised forward discount in percentage will be calculated as follows:
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Global Business Environment
TZS 1.69 / BIF  TZS 1.75 / BIF 360

*100
TZS 1.75
90
= - 13.71%
The annualised value is -13.71%. The negative sign means that the Burundi Franc (BIF) is selling at forward
discount which means that it takes 13.71% fewer Tanzanian shillings (TSHS) to get a Burundi Franc (BIF) at the
90 –day forward contract rate.
(a) Explain the concept of “points” and how it is used in quoting forward exchange rates.
(b) The following exchange rates were observed in Dar es Salaam on 30th October 2010.
TSHS/US$
TSHS/£
Spot
1450 – 1510
2550 – 2670
1 Year Forward
1550 - 1570
2675 - 2700
Further, it is assumed that cross rate quotations for US$ and £ are available.
Required:
(i) With supporting computations, indicate whether the £ is trading at a forward discount or premium relative to
the US$. Use mid-prices to determine the one year forward premium or discount on the £ relative to the US$.
(ii) Suppose you have to purchase US$10,000 one year forward. What will be the cost of this transaction in £?.
(iii) Compute the percentage bid-ask spread on the spot £.
The cross exchange rates
In certain circumstances currencies related to particular transactions may not have been quoted in either of the
currency that is the exchange rate between targeted currencies may be missing. This requires the use of the
relationship of exchange rate of the currencies for which the exchange rates are given to obtain the missing
required exchange rate. The exchange rate calculated from two (or more) other exchange rates is called the cross
rate. The exchange rate is therefore defined as the rate implied and calculated from two or more exchange rates. It
is the exchange rate implied by two or more other exchange rates. The cross rate can be useful for two purposes
(i) to determine the exchange rates between currencies; when that currency is not given and (ii) to check if the
opportunities for inter market arbitrage exist.
The cross rates can be used to detect existence of opportunities for inter market arbitrage. Exchange traders are
continually altered to the possibility of taking advantage, through currency arbitrage transactions of exchange
inconsistencies in different money centres. These transactions involve buying a currency in one market and selling
it in another. Such activities tend to keep exchange rates uniform in the various markets.
Given the spot exchange rate between Ugandan Shillings (UGX) and Tanzanian Shilling (TSHS) is TSHS
0.585/UGX, and the exchange rate between Tanzanian Shillings (TSHS) and Kenyan Shillings (KES) is TSHS
20.76/KES.
Required:
Calculate the spot cross rate between Ugandan Shillings (UGX) and Kenyan Shillings (KES), UGX/KES.
Solution
The spot cross rate can be calculated by considering the relationships of the given spot exchange rates, i.e.
TSHS/UGX and TSHS/KES. It follows that the spot rate between UGX and KES,
is given by the
Foreign Exchange Market : 51
=
=
.
The calculated cross rate is expected to be the same as the actual exchange rate of the currencies in
consideration. If there is inconsistency between the calculated cross rate and the actual cross rate, then
opportunities for arbitrage profit exist. The triangular arbitrage opportunity exists when the computed cross rate is
inconsistent with the market cross rate. The determination of triangular arbitrage opportunity and computation of
arbitrage profit is covered in subsequent sections of this study guide chapter.
Forward cross rate
The forward cross rate represents the rate implied between two or more given forward exchange rates. The
forward cross rates are determined in the same as the spot cross rates.
Consider the following spot and three - month forward quotations for a U.S Dollar ($),
Spot
Required:
€ /$ 0.81070 – 0.81103
¥ /$ 107.490 – 107.541
3-month-forward
0.81170 – 0.81243
107.347 – 107.442
Based on these rates, calculate the 3 month-forward cross-rate for yen in terms of Euros.
Solution
Like spot cross rate, the forward cross exchange rate for€ €/¥ can be calculated based on the relationship of given
3months forward exchange rates of € /$ and ¥ /$. From these two given 3months forward exchange rates the € /¥
shall be equal to € /$ divided by ¥ /$. Such that the buying rate € /¥ is found as The Buying cross rate will be given
as € /¥ = €/$ 0.81170 /107.442 $/¥ =0.00755, whereas the selling forward cross rate will be calculated as € /¥ = €/$
0.81243/107.347 $/¥= 0.00757. The 3 months cross forward rate for Yen (¥) in terms of Euros is € 0.00755 0.00757. The following are exchange rates observed in the local foreign currency market.
TSHS/Euro (€) Spot
1,890.00 – 1,892.00
TSHS/Euro (€) One month forward
1,894.025 – 1,897.05
Canadian Dollar/Euro
Spot
3.4582 – 3.4600
Canadian Dollar/Euro
One month forward
3.4530 – 3.4553
Required:
i.
Compute the one month forward cross rate for buying and selling the Tanzanian shillings (TSHS) against
the Canadian dollar.
ŝŝ͘
Determine whether the forward selling of TSHS against the Canadian dollar is a premium or discount and
by how much.
3. Apply relevant data and information to determine opportunities for bilateral and triangular
arbitrage profit
[Learning outcome c]
It has been considered and discussed in section two of this chapter that amongst main participants who play an
active role in the foreign exchange market are arbitrageurs. The arbitrageurs are the group of participants who
exploit inconsistencies in exchange rates of different currencies to determine opportunities to make risk free
arbitrage profit. The inconsistencies in exchange rate occur when the foreign exchange arbitrage efficiency does
not exist. The efficient foreign market is experienced when where existing foreign exchange market rates are fully
reflective of information available to market participants such that they cannot make abnormal profits. This implies
that any information available to a particular participant will immediately be available to other participants and be
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reflected in the market rates. While it is true that it may be difficult for arbitrageurs to consistently make abnormal
profit from foreign arbitrage transaction. It is possible to make arbitrage profit from currency arbitrage transaction at
least in the short term.
Foreign exchange arbitrage Transactions
Currency arbitrage transaction involves the purchasing of a stated amount of a selected currency in one place and
re-selling the same in another location, in order to take advantage of exchange rate differences between two
distinct markets. This is possible where market participants observe inconsistencies between the buying rate and
selling rate of a particular currency at the same time. In this case traders can buy certain amount of a currency
exhibiting low price in price in one market and resell where same currency can be sold at higher prices. This could
be the inconsistent bid-ask exchange rates between different locations. The arbitrage transaction normally involves
simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset (currency) in order to profit from a difference in the price (exchange
rate). If inconsistencies exist between exchange rates exhibited in different locations or places, the arbitrageurs
can exploit the exchange rate differentials to make a risk less profit. This will continue until the market is fully
informed of the price differences and the equilibrium restored. There are two types of arbitrage transactions
possible in foreign exchange market. The bilateral arbitrage and triangular arbitrage. These are discussed below.
Bilateral arbitrage transaction
This also referred as geographical arbitrage. The bilateral arbitrage exists due to miss-alignment or lack of
alignment between the bid rate and ask rate displayed by two distinct foreign exchange markets. The bilateral
arbitrage exists when the dealers buying rate in one location is observed to be higher than another dealers’ selling
price for the same currency at the same time. In this situation a trader can take this opportunity by buying the
currency where the ask rate displayed is low and resell the same where the dealers buying rate is displayed high.
This can be made possible by taking long and short position in foreign exchange market simultaneously. It is worth
noting that, foreign exchange market operates electronically and therefore simultaneous buy and sell transaction is
possible.
The exchange rate between the Tanzanian Shilling (TSHS) and Malawian Kwacha (MKW) at Mlimani City is
displayed as: TSHS/MKW 2.90-3.20. At the same time the exchange rate of Malawian Kwacha (MKW) at Uhuru
Street City Centre is observed to stand at TSHS/MKW 2.60 – 2.85. There is a misalignment of the bid rate and
selling rate displayed by the dealers in these two places. The Mlimani City’s dealer selling prices (TSHS
2.85/MKW) is observed to be low compared to Uhuru Street’s dealer buying rate (TSHS 2.90/MKW). Because of
inconsistency between MKW buying and selling rate in these two locations, the bilateral arbitrage opportunity
exists. The trader can exploit the opportunity by buying the Malawian Kwacha (MKW) from Mlimani City at TSHS
2.85 and concurrently sell the same to a dealer at Uhuru Street at TSHS 2.90. The trader can thereby make a risk
less arbitrage profit of TSHS 0.4 per unit of Malawian Kwacha (MKW). Therefore, with the ability to transact a large
amount of Malawian Kwacha (MKW), a trader can make huge sums of arbitrage profit.
Razaq observed the following exchange information regarding the SINGAPORE DOLLAR (SGD) and Tanzania
Shillings (TSHS) in 2018. The exchange information was displayed by two different banks at around 13.00 hrs in
the afternoon in Tanzanian touristic city of Arusha.
Waqwetu Bank Limited: Spot rate
TSHS/SGD 1750 - 1780
Wakuhenga Bank Plc. Limited
TSHS/SGD 1850 - 1905
Required:
;ĂͿ Define geographical arbitrage
;ďͿ Determine the opportunity for bilateral profit.
;ĐͿ If your answer in (b) above is affirmative and given that Razaq can transact up to SGD 2,000,000; illustrate
how Razaq the arbitrageur can benefit from the above information.
Triangular arbitrage transaction
The triangular arbitrage opportunity exists when there is misalignment between the exchange rate of two or more
currencies and the exchange rate implied between them, i.e. cross exchange rate. Similar to other kinds of
arbitrage it occurs when the foreign exchange market is less efficiency and lasts for every short period. The traders
exploit the triangular arbitrage through a triangle shaped steps, whereby one currency is converted to another
currency and that currency converted into third currency, and finally converting the third currency back to the
Foreign Exchange Market : 53
original currency within a short period. The original cost is then compared with the last proceeds and the difference
is the profit.
The triangular arbitrage process involves the trader (1) acquiring, the common currency (2) exchanging the
common currency for the overvalued currency (3) Sell the overvalued currency into the second currency
(undervalued currency), and (4) finally convert the units of the second currency (undervalued) into the domestic
currency (original currency). The difference between the amount in (1) and the proceeds in (4) is the triangular
arbitrage profit.
Mr. Kibolu, a Tanzanian trader has observed the following exchange rates: the US dollar is bid at Tanzanian
Shillings TSHS 2190/US$ in Dar es Salaam; and the Kenyan Shillings (KES) is bid at TSHS 20.50/KES. At the
same time the Commercial banks at Nairobi are selling US dollar spot at KES 121/US$.
Required:
(a) Is there any opportunity for triangular arbitration?
(b) How can Mr. Kibolu a Tanzanian trader with TSHS 100, 000,000 use that amount to benefit from the inter
market arbitration? Show all the procedures and compute arbitrage profit (if any).
Solution:
a) The existence of arbitrage opportunity can be done by finding a cross rate of Kenyan Shilling (KES) against
US Dollar (US$) and compare it with the actual (given) cross quotation. If the calculated cross exchange rate is
not the same as actual quotation, then the arbitrage opportunity exists: If the cross rate <actual quotation =
opportunity for profit.
The starting point is to calculate the cross rate between KES and US$, which can be obtained by considering
the relationship between the two other exchange rates, i.e. TSHS 2190/US$ and TSHS 20.50/KES. This is
given by
= KES 106.83/US$
The calculated cross rate (KES 106.83/$) is inconsistent with the actual (market) cross rate (KES 121/$).
Therefore, the opportunity for triangular arbitrage opportunity exists. The comparison further show that the US
dollar is overvalued by the market relative to KES, since more units of KES are needed to acquire a unit of
dollar (KES 121) as compared with KES 106.82 implied exchange rate.
b) Mr. Kibolu, a Tanzanian trader can exploit the triangular arbitrage opportunity by taking the following steps:
–
–
–
Sell the common currency TSHS 100,000,000 and buy the overvalued currency, i.e. US $, at spot market
at TSHS 2190/US$, (i.e. TSHS 100,000,000/TSHS 2190/TSHS), you obtain US $ 45,662.10.
Simultaneously sell the proceeds of US $ 45,662.10 to acquire the undervalued currency at spot KES
121/$ (i.e. KES 121/$ * $ 45,662.10) and get KES 5,525,114.16.
Resell the KES 5,525,114.16 at spot TSHS 20.50 /KES , hence obtain TSHS 113,264,840.18
The arbitrage profit will be TSHS 13,264,840.18 (i.e. TSHS 113,264,840.18- 100,000,000).
Assume you are a trader with Deutsche Bank. From the quote screen on your computer terminal, you notice that
Dresdner Bank is quoting £1.0242/$1.00 and Credit Sisses is offering SF I.5030/$1.00. You learn that UBS Bank is
making a direct market between the Swiss franc and the Euro, with a current £/SF quote of 0.6750.
Required:
(i)
(ii)
Does triangular arbitrage opportunity exist given the above information? Give reason for your answer .
Show how you can make a triangular arbitrage profit by trading at these prices (ignore bid-ask spreads for this
problem). Assume you have $5,000,000 with which to conduct the arbitrage.
(iii) What £/SF spot price will eliminate triangular arbitrage?
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Global Business Environment
4. Evaluate exchange rate regimes and analyse Tanzanian exchange rate policy and practices
[Learning outcome d]
The exchange rate can be determined in assorted ways referred as exchange rate regimes. The exchange rate
regime represents the system or methods through which the exchange rates are determined or established around
countries of the world. Exchange rate has been defined elsewhere in this section as amount of one currency
required for the acquisition of a unit of another currency. Different countries of the world apply and implement
different approaches in determining the value (price) of their currency relative foreign currencies. The countries are
supposedly required to decide on the suitable exchange rate system. This is because the exchange rate system
can substantially influence international trade volume, flow of foreign investment and capital. In prior periods the
exchange rate was being determined or fixed according to agreed units of gold or any other valuable items or
another currency. There are several approaches, but flexible exchange rate system is common and simplistic
since the market determines the exchange rate. The description of these regimes is provided below:
Free floating rate regime
The flexible exchange regime allows the exchange rate to be determined by market forces of demand and supply
of currencies, such that the increased demand for a particular currency, other things remaining constant, will lead
to its appreciation and increase in its price relative to other currencies. Under this system the government
intervention is avoided, and therefore exchange rates freely fluctuates in response to changes in macro-economic
variables such inflation rate, interest rate, economic policies and prices of goods and services of other countries
which are influential on the demand of a country’s currency. Under this system any misalignments in the balance
of payments are automatically corrected. However, the purely floating exchange rate raises possibilities for
currency risks and can therefore discourage international trade due increased costs of hedging.
If the prices of goods and services increases in Tanzania relative to prices of goods and services in Uganda, this
will lead to increased importation from Uganda by Tanzanian firms which will consequently increase the demand
for Ugandan Shillings (UGS) to cater for payment of increased imports. The increased demand for Ugandan
Shillings will lead to its appreciation and the amount of TSHS need per unit of UGS will increase. The opposite
process will lead to appreciation of TSHS and decreasing amount of TSHS required for acquisition of a Ugandan
Shillings.
Managed floating regime
This is also referred as dirty float or hybrid exchange rate system. Under this system the exchange rate is allowed
to fluctuate according to market forces but with irregular and untimely interventions by countries’ authorities. The
whole process involves the central bank involvement to stabilise the exchange rate especially where excessive
fluctuation of domestic currency’s value is observed. Depending on the objective, the central bank can intervene in
the market indirectly by instructing commercial banks to increase or decrease statutory reserves of their foreign
currencies. In this case the commercial banks will be forced to either sell or buy the foreign currencies from the
market and therefore affect the market supply of foreign currencies. This can also be through adjusting the interest
rate of the country. Occasionally, the monetary authorities directly influence the demand and supply by selling
(injecting) the foreign currency (increased supply) and or buying the foreign currencies from the market (decreased
supply) and accordingly influence the exchange rate. The system requires the central banks to keep sufficient
reserve of foreign currencies to be used when the market becomes excessively volatile and makes the value of
domestic currency undesirable.
If Tanzania practices managed exchange rate system, this would mean the central bank will set the range of
exchange rate within which the exchange rate should flow. Any excessive volatility beyond that level will
encourage the government interference. Such situation can be were desirable exchange rate is TSHS/US$ 17801950. This implies that any change to say TSHS/$ 1951 would compel the action of the central bank to regulate it
within acceptable ranges.
Fixed exchange rate system
It is possible for the government to maintain fixed exchange rate at which it desires its currency to be exchanged
against foreign currencies. Under this approach the central bank of the country sets a fixed value at which its
domestic currency will be traded against the rest of the currencies. In this case foreign exchange market forces of
demand and supply are supposedly determinants of exchanges rate had the system been freely floating are
Foreign Exchange Market : 55
defeated. Under this system the exchange rate is dictated by the central banks of the country. The central bank
maintains and fixes the exchange at a particular point for at which the domestic currency shall be traded and/ or
allows fluctuation of such fixed rate within desired levels. Because the exchange rate is fixed or allowed to move
within desirable boundaries, the currency risk is therefore reduced, and it may encourage international trade and
reduce costs of hedging foreign currency denominated transactions. The operation of this system requires
government authority’s intervention from time to time to in order to correct imbalances in the balance of payments
and monetary policies because no automatic adjustments are possible.
Pegged currency
In some cases where a particular country has regular transactions denominated in particular foreign currency (ies),
that country may decide to peg or fix the value of its currency against the selected foreign currencies. This is called
the pegged exchange rate arrangement where the value of the country is attached or fixed to another foreign
currency or to a basket of foreign currencies. Most countries peg their currencies with major currencies such as US
dollar which a highly traded currency in order to maintain the moderate stability of domestic currency with that
currency. This is often referred as to the dollarization where the country pegs the value of its currency to dollar.
Parallel exchange rates
Some countries set different exchange rates for different types of transactions e.g. trade and tourism. Official
exchange rate may be set without regard to market forces and this will lead to individual setting up non-official
markets. This may be tolerated by the government or legal penalties may be imposed on so-called black-market
operations.
The Exchange rate system applicable in Tanzania
As most of developing countries in the world, Tanzania operates under the freely floating exchange system which
was adopted around 1990’s. The exchange rate between Tanzanian Shillings (TSHS) and foreign currencies is
therefore determined by the domestic inter-bank currency transactions, that is demand for and supply of the TSHS
in the foreign exchange market. It was discussed before that it is almost impossible to operate under a purely
freely floating exchange rate system and therefore most of countries use hybrid system. For that reason, although
Tanzania follows the flexible exchange rate system where exchange rate is determined by forces of demand and
supply of domestic currency, the central bank do sometimes interfere the market to bring about stability especially
where there is excessive depreciation of domestic currency (TSHS). Therefore, the exchange rate is market
determined but with irregular foreign exchange intervention aiming at moderating the rate of volatility and undue
fluctuations in domestic currency’s value.
The depreciation of the value of Tanzanian shillings (TSHS) against major currencies of the world such as US
dollar ($), Euro (€), Sterling pound (₤), have continuously witnessed over the recent past. This depreciation could
substantially be associated (i) high reliance on imports and low volumes of exports (balance of payments deficit)
(ii) decreasing level of exports of agricultural products such as sisal, cotton, cashew nuts, and the fall in world
prices of agricultural commodities. For example, the weight average exchange rate between Tanzanian Shillings
and US dollar have changed from TSHS 1280.30 (January, 2009) to TSHS 2241.66 (January, 2018).
(a)
(b)
(c)
Discuss the cases for and against a country using fixed exchange rate system.
Why might a government wish to see a depreciation in the exchange rate of its currency?
Discuss any two ways in which a country can achieve a depreciation of its currency.
Answers to Test Yourself Questions (TYQ)
Answer to TY 1
Foreign Exchange market is the market where one country`s currency can be exchanged for another country`s; it
is not a physical place; rather it is electronically linked network of banks, foreign exchange dealers and brokers
whose function is to bring together buyers and sellers of foreign exchange. The main participants are large
commercial banks, commercial customers, foreign exchange brokers, primary Multinational corporations, hedgers,
speculators and arbitrageurs and central banks.
The main functions of the market are:
–
–
Money transfer i.e. transferring the purchasing power from one country to another through foreign bills or
remittance made through telegraphic transfers
Credit function i.e. providing credit for international trade, foreign investments and financing MNCs.
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–
–
Global Business Environment
Provision of hedging facilities such as forward contracts, future contracts and options
Price discovery (information0 i.e. the determination of values of different currencies.
Answer to TY 2
(a) A point is the smallest unit of “price” change quoted given a conventional number of digits in which a quotation
is stated. In the international financial markets, exchange rates for major currencies are quoted to four decimal
places. A fifty-point change will mean 0.0050 change in exchange rate. In Tanzania exchange rates quoted by the
central bank are in two decimal places meaning a point is equivalent to a cent of shilling. “Points” quotation in
forward rates is when a forward quotation is expressed only as a number of decimal points it differs from the spot
quotation. The difference is stated as a premium or a discount.
(b)
(i)
The Forward premium or discount on £
Given:
Spot Mid-Rates:
TSHS1480/US$
TSHS2610/£
=
=
US$0.00067/TSHS
£0.00038/TSHS
Forward Mid-Rates:
TSHS1560/US$
TSHS2687.5/£
=
=
US$0.00064/TSHS
£0.00037/TSHS
The mid-exchange rates US/£ will therefore be:
Spot: [US$0.00067/TSHS]/[£0.00038/TSHS] = US$1.7632/£
Forward: US$0.00064/TSHS]/[ = £0.00037/TSHS] = US$1.7297/£
Therefore the £ is trading at a forward discount relative to the US$.
One Year Forward discount on £ =
US $1.7297  US $1.7632 12
x x100%  1.9%
US $1.7632
12
(ii) The cost of US$10,000
The forward rate US$/£ is:
Bid Rate = [US$0.00063/TSHS]/£0.000374/TSHS]
= US$1.6845/£
Ask Rate = [US$0.00064/TSHS]/£0.00037/TSHS]
= US$1.7297/£
The cost of US$10,000 will therefore be US$10,000/US$1.6845/£ = £5936.48
(iii) The Percentage Bid-Ask Spread
= [Ask-Bid]/Ask x 100%
= [US$1.8649 – US$1.6923]/US$1.8649 X 100%
= 9.25%
ANSWER TY 3
(i) Cross-rate for selling Euro against Canadian $ is found as follows:
Forward Euro are sold for US $: US $ are bought at the Euro forward selling price of € 1,897.05 = US$ 1 and are
simultaneously sold for one – month forward Canadian $ at a rate of Canadian $ 3.4530. Thus, €1,897.05 =
Canadian $ 3.4530.
Therefore, Forward selling price for Euro VS Canadian $ = 1,897.05/3.4530
= 549.39
Similarly, the forward buying rate
= 1,894.025/3.4553
= 548.15
Foreign Exchange Market : 57
(ii) Determine whether the forward selling of Euro against Canadian $ is in premium or discount and show of how
much.
It is at discount
The spot selling rate of Euro against Canadian $
= 1,892.00/3.4582
=
€ 547.11
Forward discount
= [(549.39 – 547.11)/547.11] x 12/1
= 0.0500
= 5%
Answer to TY3
(a) Geographical/ Bilateral arbitrage it is the process involving purchase of underlying currency in the market
where is cheap and selling it where is expensive. It becomes viable due to lack of alignment between bid-ask
spread in two different market places.
(b) It is observed that the bid price for Singapore Dollar (SGD) at Wakuhenga Bank Plc. Limited is observably
higher (TSHS 1850) than the ask rate displayed by Waqwetu Bank Limited (TSHS 1780). There is a
misalignment of the bid rate and selling rate displayed by the two banks, and therefore opportunity for
geographical arbitrage profit do exist.
(c) To benefit from the possible geographical arbitrage the arbitrage should take the following steps:
– Purchase SGD 2,000,000 from Waqwetu Bank Limited at TSHS 1780 per Singapore dollar. This
transaction will cost Razaq a total of TSHS 3,560,000,000 [i.e. SGD 2000, 000*TSHS/SGD1780].
– Sell the SGD 2,000,000 spot in Wakuhenga Bank Plc. Limited at the rate of TSHS 1850/SGD. This
transaction will yield TSHS 3,700,000,000 [i.e. SGD 2,000,000*TSHS 1850/SGD].
– The bilateral arbitrage profit will be = TSHS 140,000,000 [TSHS 3,700,000,000-TSHS 3,560,000,000]
Answer TY4
(b)
i.
Market Cross rate is given as € 0.6750
SF
The calculation cross will be obtained by taking
ii.
(ii)
€1.0242 divided by SF 1.5030
$1.00
$1.00
This result to £/SF 0.6814 since dollar cancels out; the calculated cross therefore will be £/SF 0.6814 which
is inconsistent with market cross rate of (£/SF 0.6750). Triangular arbitrage opportunity does exist due
lack of alignment between the market and implied across rate.
To make a triangular arbitrage profit the Deutsche Bank trader would sell $5,000,000 to Dresdner Deutsche
Bank trader would then sell the Euros for Swiss francs to Union Bank of Switzerland at a price of
£1.0242/$1.00. This trade would yield £5,121,000= $ 5,000,000 x 1.0242. The Deutsche Bank trade
would then sell the Euros for Swiss francs to Union Bank of Switzerland at a price of £0.6750/SF1.00,
yielding SF7,586,667 = £5,121,000/6750. The Deutsche Bank trader would then sell the Euros for Swiss
France to Union Bank of Switzerland at a price of €0.6750/SF1.00, yielding SF 7, 586,667 =
£5,121,000/6750. The Deutsche Bank trader will resell the Swiss francs to Credit Suisse for $5,047,683 =
SF7, 586,667/1.5030, yielding a triangular arbitrage profit of $47,683.
The s(£/SF) cross exchange rate should be £/SF0.6814. This is an equilibrium rate at which a triangular
arbitrage profit will not exist.
Answer to TY 5
The Case for and against fixed system of exchange rate
(a)

The Case for Fixed System of Exchange Rate
The great advantage of fixed rates is stability. Firms which engaged in international trade know within certain
narrow limits how much they will be paying for their imports and receiving for their exports, and they are thus able
to operate with much more certainty and to plan their budgets accordingly, without running the risk of losing if the
exchange rate goes against them.
Secondly, fixed exchange rates impose discipline on governments to take action when their currencies are
consistently too high or too low; that is, a currency with a low exchange rate probably reflects an unfavorable
position on the country’s balance of payments, which may in turn be caused by high inflation. The need to keep the
currency’s valued from falling further will oblige the government not only to support the currency in the short run,
but also to take more radical action to solve the underlying problem.
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Global Business Environment
Thirdly under fixed exchange rate system there is little room for speculation, which is an advantage as this only,
distorts currency values without representing trade in real goods and services.

The Case against (Disadvantages) of Fixed System of Exchange Rate
Firstly, that they can lead to currencies being kept unrealistically high or low before a revaluation or devaluation
occurs.
Secondly, they presuppose that central banks have enough foreign currency reserves to support their own
currencies in the short run.
Thirdly, they take away from governments independence of economic policy-making and the same time require
them to give priority to balance of payment problems over domestic problems; i.e. the central bank may be force
into raising interest rates to support its currency when the government may want to decrease them to combat
unemployment.
Government and rise in exchange rate for its currency
(b)
If exchange rate of a country’s currency rises it has the joint effect of making imports cheaper in terms of home
currency and exports more expensive to foreign buyers. The essence this will have a deflationary effect on the
home economy which might be welcomed for the following reasons:


(c)
If aggregate demand in the economy is too high relative to supply this will lead inflationary pressure. The
firming of the exchange rate will lower the demand for domestically produced exports and increase the
demand for imported substitutes for home produced and consumed goods, both of which should lead to a
reduction in aggregate demand and hence reduce the inflationary pressure.
A further reason for a government to desire a currency appreciation is if the country is running a balance of
payments surplus. In such circumstances it may wish to export capital and the firmer exchange rate should
encourage this.
For government to achieve a rise in the exchange rate of its currency it must enter the foreign
exchange market. Such intervention can take several forms. Either it can enter the market directly by using its
gold and currency reserves to buy its own currency, thus driving up the price of the currency by increasing
demand. Alternatively, the government can raise domestic interest rates encouraging capital flows into the
country thereby rising demand for the domestic currency on the foreign exchange market, thus raining its
price.
Indicative Examination Questions (IEQs)
IEQ 1
(a)
Explain the meaning of the term “arbitrage” in the finance context and its application in the foreign currency
markets.
(b)
You are provided with the following spot exchange rates as they appear today in the foreign currency market
desks of three local banks in Arusha:
Kisongo Commercial Bank
Є 0.7650 – 0.7745/US$
Moshono Savings Bank
TSHS.1,395 – 1,420/US$
Sanawari Wakulima Bank
TSHS.1,860 – 1,905/ Є
Required:
;ŝͿ
;ŝŝͿ
With supporting computations, show whether there exists arbitrage opportunity.
If there exist arbitrage opportunity, and assuming that you have TSHS.10 million to invest,
show how you can exploit the opportunity and the amount of profit (in TSHS) that you will make.
IEQ 2
(a)
Explain main types of foreign exchange rate systems and discuss how such systems might affect the
ability of Financial Managers to forecast exchange rates.
(b)
The following are exchange rates observed in the local foreign currency market.
Foreign Exchange Market : 59
TSHS/Euro (€) Spot
1,890.00 – 1,892.00
TSHS/Euro (€) One month forward
1,894.025 – 1,897.05
Canadian Dollar/Euro
Spot
3.4582 – 3.4600
Canadian Dollar/Euro
One month forward
3.4530 – 3.4553
Required:
(i)
Compute the one month forward cross rate for buying and selling the Tanzanian shillings (TSHS)
against the Canadian dollar.
Determine whether the forward selling of TSHS against the Canadian dollar is a premium or
discount and by how much.
(ii)
IEQ 3
(a)
A number of economic blocks in Africa, including the East African Community, are now considering having a
single currency in the future.
Required:
(b)
(i)
Using examples, briefly discuss the importance of a “single currency” for African economies.
(ii)
Highlight key factors that must be considered before embarking on a single currency.
The international monetary system refers primarily to the set of policies, institution, practices, regulations
and mechanisms that determine the rate at which one currency is exchanged for another.
Required:
Briefly explain the different types of exchange rate regimes including variations of flexible exchange rate
setting mechanisms.
Answer to IEQs
IEQ 1
(a)
Arbitrage is the act of simultaneously buying and selling the same or equivalent assets or commodities for
the purpose of making certain, guaranteed (risk less) profits.
(b)
(i)
Cross-rates:
1,420
 TZS .1,856.21/ €
0.7650 €
1,395 TZS.
 TZS .1,801.16 / €
0.7745 €
By comparison:
Cross-rate
TSHS.1, 801.16 – 1,856.21/€ with
Sanawari Wakulima Bank
TSHS.1, 850 – 1,905/€.
Cross rate differs from actual market rate. Arbitrage opportunities exist.
(ii)
Arbitrage approach:
(a)
(b)
(c)
Buy US$ in Moshono Savings Bank
Sell the US$ in Kisongo Commercial Bank to buy €
Sell the € in Sanawari to buy back TSHS.
TZS .10.000,000
 US $7,042.25
TZS .1,420 / US $
US$ 7,042.25 *
€0.7650
 €5,387.32
US$
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Global Business Environment
€5,387.32 *
TZS .1,860
 TZS .10,020,415.20
€
Less:
TSHS.10, 000,000.00
Arbitrage profit
20,415.20
Alternative Solution:
(a)
Arbitrage:
Arbitrage is the act of simultaneously buying and selling the same or equivalent assets or commodities for the
purpose of making certain (guaranteed) riskless profits. In relation to the foreign exchange market, we may
distinguish between:
(i)
Triangular (or inter-market arbitrage)
(ii)
Commodity arbitrage
(iii)
Interest arbitrage
The principal objective of any arbitrage process is to benefit from possible market imperfections, (i.e. get arbitrage
profit). The gain is risk free.
(b)
(i)
Checking on opportunities for profit.
The mid-cross rate between the TSHS and € is:
TZS 1,408/US$
= TSHS 1829 / €.
€ 0.7698/US$
The actual mid-rate is TSHS 1883 / €. As the two rates differ, opportunities for profits from triangular arbitrage
exist.
(ii)
The arbitrage process: Illustration.

Exchange the TSHS 10m spot for US$ at TSHS 1,408 / US$ to have US$ 7,102.

Convert the US$ 7,102 into € spot at € 0.7650 / US$ to obtain € 5461.

Exchange the € 5461 for TSHS spot at TSHS 1883 / € to obtain TSHS 10,283,063.
Thus, the arbitrage profit will be: TSHS 10,283,063 – TSHS 10,000,000 = TSHS 20,415.20
IEQ 2
(a)
(i)

(ii)
Free Floating Exchange Rate
Value of the currency is determined solely by market demand foe and supply of the currency in the foreign
exchange market
 Trade and capital flows are the main factors affecting the exchange rate
 In the long run, it is the macro economic performance of the economy (including trends in
competitiveness) that drives the value of the currency)
 No pre-determined official target for the exchange rate is set by the government. The government
and/or monetary authorities can set interest rates for domestic economic purposes rather than to
achieve a given exchange rate target
 It is rare for pure free-floating exchange rates to exists – most governments at one time or another
seek to “manage” the value of their currency through changes in interest rates and other controls
Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate




Exchange rate is given a specific target
Currency can move between permitted bands of fluctuation
Exchange rate is dominant target of economic policy-making (interest rates are set to meet the
target)
Central Bank may have to intervene to maintain the value of the currency within the targets
Foreign Exchange Market : 61

(iii)
Re-valuations are possible but seen as a last resort
Fully-Fixed Exchange Rate





Commitment to a single fixed exchange rate
No permitted fluctuations from the central rate
Achieves exchange rate stability put perhaps at the expense of domestic economic stability
Bretton-woods system when currencies were tied to the US Dollar
Gold standard in the inter-war year – currencies linked with gold
The fixed exchange rates systems are easy to forecast since they remain generally unchanged. The freely floating
exchange rate system is however, complicated in forecasting which may require statistical techniques to be used.
(b)
(i)
Cross-rate for selling Euro against Canadian $ is found as follows:
Forward Euro are sold for US $: US $ are bought at the Euro forward selling price of € 1,897.05 = US$
1 and are simultaneously sold for one – month forward Canadian $ at a rate of Canadian $ 3.4530.
Thus, €1,897.05 = Canadian $ 3.4530.
Therefore, Forward selling price for Euro VS Canadian $
= 1,897.05/3.4530
= 549.39
Similarly, the forward buying rate
(ii)
=
1,894.025/3.4553
=
548.15
Determine whether the forward selling of Euro against Canadian $ is in premium or discount and
show of how much.
It is at discount
The spot selling rate of Euro against Canadian $
Forward discount
=
1,892.00/3.4582
=
€ 547.11
=
[(549.39 – 547.11)/547.11] x 12/1
=
0.0500
=
5%
IEQ 3
(a)
(i)
Advantages (importance of single currency):
 Minimization of foreign exchange risk within the region
 Reduction of uncertainties between investors
 Currency becomes stronger
 Movement of goods and services is facilitated
 Transaction costs minimizations
 Single interest rates
 Developing of financial markets
 Price parity across the region.
(ii)
Critical issues to be considered (Any of the following):






(b)
State of economies of east Africa should be at par
Political stability in all countries involved
Regulatory Body to regulate the system and provide the forum discussion
Inflation control
Integrated capital market
Harmonization of monetary policies
Market mechanisms for establishing exchange rates are:
(i)
Free float (Freely fluctuating exchange rate)
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Global Business Environment
Under purely freely fluctuating exchange regime currencies are allowed to float (i.e. move upward and
downward) freely without government interaction in the market or restrictions on who may change
money. The exchange rates are determined by the interaction currency supply and demand. The
supply-and-demand schedules, in turn are influenced by prices level changes, interest differentiations,
and economic growth. Generally, the exchange rate will fluctuate randomly as market participants
assess and react to new information, much as security and commodity prices in other financial
markets responds to news. This will actually shift the supply-and-demand schedules which in turn will
lead to new equilibrium positions.
(ii)
Managed float
In this case the exchange rates are allowed to float in response to demand and supply forces but not
as frees and complete as it would be under pure freely fluctuating rate regime. The government
(through central bank) intervenes actively in the foreign exchange market in order to reduce the
economic uncertainty associated with a clean float. The government interaction is due to the fact that
there is a fear that too abrupt in a change in the value of a nation’s currency could imperil its export
industries (if the currency appreciates) or lead to a higher rate of inflation (if the currency depreciates).
The practical experience with floating rates has not been encouraging since instead of reducing
economic volatility, as they were supposed to do, floating exchange rates appear have increased it.
Managed floats fall into three distinct categories of central bank interventions; these are: Smoothing
out daily fluctuations; Leaving against the wind and unofficial pegging.
(iii)
Target-zone Arrangement (or Pegged currency)
Under the target-zone arrangement, the currency is linked to a major trading currency or a basket of
currencies (currency blocs) and keeps that relationship fixed. Under this system, countries adjust their
national economic policies to maintain their exchange rates within a specific margin around agreedupon fixed central exchange rates.
Many economists and policy makers have argued that the industrialized countries could minimize
exchange rate volatility and enhance economic stability if the United States, German, and Japan
linked their currencies in a target-zone system.
(iv)
Fixed rate system
Under fixed rate system, governments are committed to maintain target exchange rates through its
central banks or treasury agencies. Each central bank actively buys or sells its currency in the foreign
market whenever its exchange rate threatens to deviate from its stated par value by more than an
agreed-on percentage. The resulting coordination of monetary policy ensures that all members’
nations have the same inflation rate. In this case, each member must accept the group’s joint inflation
rate as its own.
(v)
Controlled rate Regime (or the current hybrid system)
In such a regime, national governments directly affect exchange rates by imposing and enforcing legal
controls on private dealings in FOREX. The national government uses their sovereign power to control
the overall demand for, and/or supply of FOREX. Some forms in which governments may exercise
their powers include:
NA

Licensing requirement where residents have to apply to the exchange control authorities for
licensing to import goods and to acquire the exchange needed for those goods.

Residents may be required to obtain FOREX from specified sources only that have been
designed to operate as part of the exchange control mechanism.

Similarly, residents are required by the law to sell all the FOREX to these official agencies.
A4
2
SECTION A
International Parity Relationship and Exchange Rate Forecasting : 63
GLOBAL BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT
STUDY GUIDE A4: INTERNATIONAL PARITY
RELATIONSHIP AND EXCHANGE RATE
FORECASTING
The exchange rate and exchange rate forecasting are at the heart of multinational financial management. The
multinational corporations, international firms, commercial banks, international business community and general
public continuously apply exchange rate for personal and business purposes. The listed participants require
exchange rate forecasting for different reasons. The motives for forecasting exchange rate could be – to appraise
and evaluation of international projects, formulating international financial policies, speculating and arbitraging in
foreign exchange market, hedging and mitigating currency risks, and for trading purposes. The concept of
exchange rate has been discussed in A2: Foreign Exchange Market of this study guide. Subsequent to that, it is
important to understand the reasons, determinants for exchange rate fluctuations, evaluate different techniques
that can be used in exchange rate forecasting and to assess the impact of balance of payment in domestic
currency’s value relative to the currencies of the rest of the world.
The fluctuation of exchange rate is associated with a number of other economic factors. The relationship and the
link between these economic factors and exchange rate are explained by international parity or equilibrium
theories. The theories, for example explains how exchange rate can be influenced by inflation rate, interest rate,
changes in economic growth, change in international trade volumes and balance of payments. The parity
theories are further important tools for exchange rate forecasting. It has been suggested that these are
equilibrium theories such that if they are holding there is no possibilities for arbitrage opportunities. In other words
any disparities in these theories suggest possibility of arbitrage opportunities. Accordingly, the understanding of
the concepts and practices behind exchange rate forecasting and mechanics of international parity theories is
critical
In this study guide chapter, the concept and practices of parity theories and its role in exchange rate forecasting
is introduced, Determinants of exchange rate explored and evaluated and opportunities for commodity and
interest rate arbitrage profit exploited and determined. The influence of the balance of payment on domestic
currency’s value when compared with other foreign currencies is also discussed and examined.
a) Examine International Parity Relationship by analysing the relationship of exchange rate and other
economic variables through;
i.
Supply and Demand theory, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Fisher Effect (FE), International
Fisher Effect (IFE), Interest Rate Parity (IRP) and Forward Rate as Unbiased predictor of Future
Spot Rate.
b) Apply PPP and IRP to determine commodity and interest rate arbitrage opportunities.
c) Evaluate the need for exchange rate forecasting and Apply different techniques to forecast exchange
rates.
d) Evaluate the implication of balance of payments on exchange rate determination.
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Global Business Environment
1. Examine International Parity Relationship by analysing the relationship of exchange rate and other
economic variables through;
Supply and Demand theory, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Fisher Effect (FE), International Fisher Effect (IFE),
Interest Rate Parity (IRP) and Forward Rate as Unbiased predictor of Future Spot Rate.
[Learning outcome, a]
Exchange rate has been defined elsewhere in this book as “a price of one currency expressed in terms of
another currency”. Like prices of other commodities exchange rate is not self-standing. It is at the possible
influence of other factors. These factors explain fluctuation or volatility of exchange rate. The main economic
variables which influence the exchange rate are inflation (price levels in different countries), interest rate
(opportunity cost of money across countries), relative changes in economic growth and development, changes in
international trade volumes and movements of balance of payments. The description of relationship between
exchange rate and most of the determinants of exchange rate is provided by the international parity relationship,
which are equilibrium conditions of exchange rate.
(1)
Supply and Demand Theory
According to this theory, the exchange rate is determined by the forces of demand and supply. Therefore, the
point of intersection of the two curves will be the equilibrium rate. If, for any reason, the demand for a
foreign currency increases, then the price will rise further, assuming the supply remains the same. On the
contrary, if the supply is increased by a shift of the supply curve downwards, the price will decline from, provided
the demand remains the same. Any excess demand, below the equilibrium point or excess supply, above the
equilibrium point decreases or increases the foreign currency reserves of a country temporarily. This
disequilibrium condition is rectified by market forces over time.
(2)
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
Purchasing power parity (PPP) is an equilibrium theory which provides that exchange rates between currencies
are in equilibrium when their purchasing power is the same in each of the two countries. This means that the
exchange rate between two countries should equal the ratio of the two countries' price level of a fixed basket of
goods and services. When a country's domestic price level is increasing (i.e. country experiences inflation), that
country's exchange rate depreciates in order to return to PPP. The process of equilibrium continues until prices
of goods of two countries reach the same level. There are two forms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), the
absolute and relative version.
(i) The Absolute Version of PPP Theory
The absolute version of PPP theory is based on the law of one price. The theory states that in a freemarket
identical commodities will be priced similarly across borders, such that if the price in Tanzanian shillings of a
product is multiplied by the exchange rate, say, the US Dollar, it will yield the price of the same product in US
dollars. If we assume that the exchange rate between the TSHS and US $ is 1600: 1, then a product that costs
$1 in the United States should cost TSHS 1600 in Tanzania. Otherwise, arbitrage profits will occur. Ultimately,
however, the market, through the forces of demand and supply, will bring about equilibrium between the
Tanzanian shillings and US dollar prices. Thus, the law of one price will be reinstated and as a result, the
purchase power parity between the TSHS and the US $. The differences in the rates of inflation between the
countries will also be nullified because the PPP adjusts to equal the ratio of their price levels. The implication of
the theory is that the exchange will be determined in some way by the relationship between prices of similar
product in two countries.
Absolute version of PPP theory is based on following assumptions



The law of one price assumes that there are no transportation costs and no differential taxes applied
between the two markets.
There must be competitive markets for the goods and services in both countries.
The law of one price only applies to tradable goods; immobile goods such as houses, and many services that
are local, are of course not traded between countries.
International Parity Relationship and Exchange Rate Forecasting : 65
Let PXTZ be the price of commodity X in Tanzania, and P XKE = the price of similar commodity in Kenya. The
expected exchange rate of Tanzanian Shillings (TSHS) against Kenyan Shillings (KES) is then expressed as
.
The law of one price is given as:
PTSHS
…………………………………………. (1)
Rearrange as
…………………………………. (2)
That is the ratio of relative inflation rates. If inflation falls in Kenya the right-hand side of equation (2) above will
become smaller, thus the exchange rate of Kenya shillings against Tanzania shillings will fall by a proportional
amount (lower inflation increases value of the KES in terms of the exchange rate).
Suppose a kilo of salt is sold for Tanzanian Shillings (TSHS) 2,000 in Pwani, Tanzania while the same kilo of salt
is sold for Kenyan Shillings (KES) 120 in Nakuru, Kenya.
Required:
Calculate the exchange rate between the TSHS and KES implied by Law of one price.
Solution
Let the price of a kilo of salt in Tanzania be denoted as, P sTZ= TSHS 2,000, Price of kilo of salt in Kenya
PsKE
KES 120.
It follows that, the exchange rate implied by Law of One Price (LOP) will be determined as follows
, Therefore,
16.67
The exchange rate implied by the Law of One Price is the equilibrium exchange rate and that any deviation of
market (actual) exchange rate from the rate implied in the law of one price, suggests the existence of commodity
arbitrage opportunity.
In practice it would take a long time to reach price equilibrium according to PPP. In the short run, exchange rates
are news driven i.e. announcements about interest rate changes, changes in perception of the growth prospects
of economies and the like are all factors that drive exchange rates in the short run. The Purchasing Power Parity
further suggests that the purchasing power of a consumer will be similar when purchasing goods in a foreign
country or in the home country. If inflation in the foreign country differs from inflation in the home country, the
exchange rate will adjust itself to maintain equal purchasing power.
The Purchasing Power Parity model (absolute version) has shown some weaknesses and could be a poor
predictor of short-term changes in exchange rates because:




It ignores the effects of capital movement on the exchange rate-trade and therefore exchange rates will only
reflect the prices of goods which enter into international trade and not the general price level since this
include non-tradable goods.
It ignores the fact that government may manage exchange rates, e.g. through interest rate policy such that
the assumption of free market defeated.
The transaction cost of trading the commodities such as shipping, insurance, storage cost do exit.
It assumes that identical commodities in the two countries (homogeneous) and that there is no product
differentiation which is unrealistic.
(ii) The relative form of purchasing power parity (PPP)
This version of PPP state that the exchange rate between the domestic currency and any foreign currency will
always adjust to reflect change in inflation/price level in the two countries. The relative form of PPP is an
alternative version that accounts for the possibility of market imperfections such as transportation costs, tariffs
and quotas. This version acknowledges that, because of these market imperfections, prices of similar products of
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Global Business Environment
different countries will not necessary be the same when measured in a common currency. Under this version of
PPP ‘the exchange rate between the domestic currency and any foreign currency will adjust to reflect changes in
prices levels of the two countries. Subsequent to that, the currency of the country experiencing a higher rate of
inflation will depreciate against the other currency by approximately the inflation differential. The higher the rate
of inflation in one county relative to another will signify that the purchasing power of that country’s currency is
weak and accordingly its value depreciates compared to the other country’s currency.
Given, the inflation levels for two countries, and the spot rate, the expected exchange rate can be determined as
follows using the purchasing power parity model:
Single period version (t = 1)
, This can be rewritten as
, whereas
is exchange rate differential, and
is inflation rate differentials.
This is to say, generally that the PPP theory states that the exchange rate differentials should be equal to the
inflation rate differentials in the short run.
Multi period version (t>1)
, this can be rearranged as
Where
The domestic currency value of the foreign currency at time t
The domestic currency value of the foreign currency at time O
The periodic domestic inflation rate
The periodic foreign inflation rate
Therefore, according to Purchasing power parity, the exchange rate change during a given period should be
equal to the inflation rate differential in that same time period. According to PPP a currency with high rate of
inflation should devalue relative to the currency of the country with low rates of inflation. The theory is however,
likely to be more useful for predicting long run changes in exchange rates since these are more likely to be
determined by the underlying competitiveness of economies as measured by the model. The clear prediction of
the purchasing power parity model of exchange rate determination is that, if a country experiences a faster rate
of inflation than its trading partners, it will experience depreciation.
It is given that the current or spot exchange rate between Tanzania and Kenya is TSHS 20/KES and respective
annual rates of inflation are 15% and 10%.
Required:
Assuming that purchasing power, parity theory holds, calculate the rate of foreign exchange expected in 12
months’ time.
Solution
According
to
purchasing
differentials
power
parity
the
exchange
rate
differentials
. Accordingly, the expected spot rate would be determined as
,
equals
the
inflation
,
rate
International Parity Relationship and Exchange Rate Forecasting : 67
The exchange rate in 12 months (one year) will be TSHS/KES 20.91. When the calculated exchange rate is
compared with spot rate of TSHS/KES 20 which was prevailing 12 months ago, it can be noted that the
Tanzanian Shillings has depreciated against Kenyan Shillings during the period of one year. This is because
more TSHS (20.91) are needed to purchase 1 Kenya shilling compared to only TSHS (20) required before. The
Kenyan shillings have therefore appreciated. This is in line with the purchasing power parity which state that the
country with relative higher rate of inflation, in this case Tanzania (15%) will experience depreciation or fall in
value of its currency relative to a country experiencing lower rate of inflation, in this case Kenya (10%).
(3)
The Fisher effect [FE] theory
The Fisher Effect (FE) theory was initially developed by the US economist Irving Fisher. The theory describes the
relationship that exists between inflation rate and interest rate. It states that investors all over the world expect
the same real rate of return on their investments after the effects of inflation are eliminated. Therefore, while
nominal interest rates may differ between countries this is only because of different inflation expectations. The FE
holds that, in equilibrium, an increase (decrease) in the expected rate of inflation in a country will cause a
proportionate increase (decrease) in the interest rate in that country. That is nominal interest rate in each country
are equal to the required real rate of return plus compensation for expected inflation.
The theory states that the nominal interest rate (r) is made up of two components: A real required rate of return
“a” and inflation premium equal to the expected amount of inflation “i”. Hence, FE is given 1+ Nominal interest
rate = (1+real required rate of return) (1+expcted inflation rate).
Where, r = nominal rate; a= real rate; i = inflation rate
The expected inflation rate is the expected rate of inflation over the period of time for which funds are to be lent.
; Where
and
are nominal home and foreign currency interest rates, and
and
are
home and foreign country inflation rates respectively. The exact form is:
Where,
Interest rate in home country
Interest rate in foreign country
Inflation rate in foreign country
Inflation rate in foreign country
The Fisher effect helps to explain the difference in the interest rates in two countries. This difference can be
correlated with the difference in the inflation rates in those countries. Accordingly, the generalized version of
Fisher theory insists that currencies with high rates of inflation should bear higher interest rates than currencies
with lower rates of inflation.
If the required real return is 3% and expected inflation is 10%, then the nominal interest rate will be about 13%
(13.3% to be exact). The logic behind this result is that $1 next year will have the purchasing power of $0.9 in
terms of today’s dollar. Thus, the borrower must pay the lender $ 0.103 to compensate for the erosion in the
purchasing power of the $ 1.03 in principal and interest payments, in addition to the $ 0.03 necessary to provide
a 3 real return.
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Global Business Environment
Assume that the nominal interest rate in Germany is 5%, the rate of inflation is 3% and the expected rate of
inflation in the US is 4%. In this case, the nominal interest rate in the US can be calculated using the Fisher
theory as follows:
,
Therefore,
Therefore, the nominal rate of interest in the US is 0.06 or 6%.
It can be observed that the real rate of return after eliminating the rate of inflation is the same in both Germany
and the US, i.e. 2% (5% - 3%) in Germany and (6% - 4%) in the US.
It is worth to note that, if the capital markets are highly integrated the real interest rate differentials around the
world will not be much. This is because under capital market integration the real interest rates are determined by
the global supply and demand for funds and investments, unlike where capital market are segmented in which
real interest rates are determined by local credit condition. However, total elimination of real interest differentials
is impossible due to currency exposure and existence of different political risks levels in different countries.
(4)
The International Fisher effect [IFE]
This theory describes the precise relationship between the relative nominal interest rates of two countries and
exchange rates. It suggests that an investor who periodically invests in foreign interest-bearing securities will on
average achieve a return similar to what is possible domestically. The key point of understanding the impact of
relative changes in nominal interest rates among countries on the foreign exchange value of a nation’s currency
is to recall the implication of PPP and the generalized Fisher Effect. PPP implies that exchange rates will move to
offset changes in inflation rate differential. Thus, a rise in the Tanzania inflation rate relative to those of other
countries will be associated with a fall in the Tanzanian Shillings (TSHS)’s value. It will also be associated with a
rise in the Tanzanian interest rate relative to foreign interest rates. This implies that the exchange rate of the
country with higher interest rates will depreciate to offset the interest rate advantage achieved by foreign
investments.
In specific terms, the IFE suggests that currencies with low interest rates are expected to appreciate relative to
currencies with high interest rates. Essentially what the international fisher effect says is that arbitrage between
financial markets in the form of international capital flows should ensure that the interest differential between any
two countries is an Unbiased Predictor of the future change in the spot rate of exchange. This condition does not
mean, however, that the interest differential is an especially accurate predictor; it just means that prediction
errors tend to cancel out over time.
Give the interest rates of two countries and spot rate of one country IFE can be applied to determine the
expected (future) exchange rate as follows.
, this can be rearranged as
Where ēt is the expected exchange rate in period t.
(5)
The interest rate parity [IRP] theory
Interest rates can be used as a tool for demand management in monetary policy therefore interest rates in
different countries will vary depending on the economic condition of the economy. Another factor influencing
exchange rates is the interest rates. If interest rates are high in one country compared to another, this will have
the effect of attracting capital inflows as investors try to take advantage of the higher rate of interest.
Consequently, the demand for domestic currency increases, pushing up its price. The ultimate effect is a
depreciation of the domestic country’s currency as it becomes more expensive.
The Interest Rate Parity (IRP) theorem examines the impact of nominal interest rate differentials between two
countries on the future/forward rate of the foreign currency. This theory states that premium or discount of one
currency against another should reflect the interest rate differential between the two currencies. The theory
specifically, offers that in a perfect market situation and where there are no restrictions on the flow of money one
should be able to gain the same real value on one monetary asset irrespective of country where they are held.
The theory states that: The difference in the national interest rates for securities of similar risk and maturity
International Parity Relationship and Exchange Rate Forecasting : 69
should be equal to, but opposite sign to the forward rate discount or premium for the foreign currency, except for
transaction costs. IRP is an equilibrium condition – a ‘parity relationship’ and holds that exchange rates are
determined by interest rate differentials. It states that the premium or discount of one currency in relation to the
other should reflect the interest rate differentials between the two currencies. Thus, interest rates play an
important role in determining exchange rates.
The IRP equation is
Where,
p
Home Interest Rate
Foreign Interest Rate
p = Forward Premium or discount of the foreign currency.
IRP is often approximated as
,
Alternatively,
such that
Where, F and S0 are Forward and Spot rates respectively, and
and
are domestic country and foreign
interest rates respectively.
The IRP holds where forward premium or discount (the difference between the spot and forward rates) equals
interest rate differential between the two countries. It follows that, the IRP is an equilibrium condition that should
hold in the absence of barriers to international capital flows i.e. it assumes that money is internationally mobile. If
IRP do not hold then it would be possible for arbitrageurs to make unlimited amounts of money exploiting the
arbitrage opportunity. Since we do not typically observe persistent arbitrage conditions, we can safely assume
that IRP holds on the whole. But in some cases the inconsistency or disparity in the interest rate theory can be
observed which suggest the existence of interest arbitrage opportunity.
In case of disparity in the IRP the investor may take advantages for the interest rates differences by doing the
following (i) Say choose to invest at foreign currency money market instrument of identical risk and maturity for
the same period. (ii) This would require that the investor exchange the home currency for foreign currency at the
spot rate of exchange, (iii) invests foreign currency in a money market instrument, (iv) Sell the foreign currency
forward (in order to avoid any risk that the exchange rate would change), and (v) at the end of the period convert
the resulting proceeds back to home currency. The different between the amount invested in chosen currency
and the final proceeds will be the investor’s interest arbitrage profit.
Assume we have £1m to invest and S$1.6800/£ and F360$1.6066/£; Also UK fixed interest rate is 13.00%pa
while US fixed interest rate is 8.0625%pa. We could invest £1m in UK at 13.00% for 12 months. OR we could
convert £1m to $ at $1.68/£, invest $ at 8.0625% for 12 months and sell the pre-calculated proceeds forward 12
months at $1.6066/£; both investments would yield the same amount £1.13m then Equilibrium holds.
Zen Pharma Inc. exports a special pharmaceutical product, Zenfar, from its headquarters in Atlanta, USA to a
major Tanzanian importer. The current exchange rate is $1= TSHS 1,600. Exports to Tanzania are currently
200,000 units of Zenfar at $50 each. Direct costs are $30 per unit. There is an expectation that the Tanzanian
currency will be devalued by 15 percent by the Tanzanian government. Zen is now faced with a pricing decision
problem that must be decided before the anticipated any actual devaluation takes place. Zen is considering two
options before it.
Option 1
Maintain the same Tanzanian price as prevailing today (i.e. sell for a lower dollar price such that the cost to the
importer in Tanzanian shillings is the same as at present). In such a case, the sales volume to Tanzania will not
be affected, or,
Option 2
70
Global Business Environment
Maintain the same dollar price, and therefore the Tanzanian shilling price is increased to compensate for the
devaluation. This will result in a 10 percent decrease in volume.
Required:
(a) What is the short-run implication of pricing strategy under Option 1
(b) What is the short-run implication of pricing strategy under Option 2
(c) Which strategy do you recommend?
6. The rational expectations theory
According to this theory forward rate is regarded as unbiased predictor of the future spot rate. It suggests that,
when the current level of risk is ignored, the equilibrium is achieved when the forward differential equals the
expected changes in the exchange rate. Some forecasters believe that foreign exchange markets for the major
floating currencies are efficient and forward exchange rates are unbiased predictors of future spot exchange
rates, such that the forward rate agreed today for future use will be approximately equal the spot rate at that date.
A formal statement of the unbiased forward rate (UFR) condition is that the forward rate should reflect the
expected future spot rate on the date of settlement of the forward contract such that incentives to buy or sell the
currency forward.
f t  et , Where ē is the expected future exchange rate at time t (unit of home currency per unit of foreign
t
currency) and ft is the forward rate for settlement at time t.
Unbiased predictor simply means that the forward rate will, on average, overestimate and underestimate the
actual future spot rate in equal frequency and degree. It therefore “misses the mark” in a regular and orderly
manner and sum of the errors equals to zero. The fact that it is unbiased predictor, however, does not mean that
the future spot rate will actually be equal to what the forward rate predicts.
Forward rate speculations
Speculation is the process of seeking to profit from anticipated exchange rate fluctuations. Forward speculation
on the other hand is the process which involves purchasing the underlying currency expected to appreciate
forward and selling it on the date of settlement of the forward contract.
Given the followings information
Spot rate:
1 Month Forward rate
1 Month Forecast rate
The amount for trading is given to be
Required: Illustrate how the speculator
in £.
£: TSHS 2350- 2500
£: TSHS 2400- 2550
£: TSHS 2600-2700
£1,000,000
can benefit from forward speculation and determine the amount of profit
Solution
The speculation profit can be obtained by taking the following steps:
–
–
–
–
The Speculator can buy the pounds 1,000,000 I month forward at TSHS/£ 2550 (Fix the price to buy the
pounds in 1-month period). Total cost payable in 1-month TSHS 2,550,000,000.
On the settlement date of the forward contract deliver TSHS 2,550,000,000 to the counterparty (bank) and
obtain 1,000,000 pounds.
Then sell the 1,000,000 pounds spot at the forecast rate of TSHS 2600.
The speculator obtains TSHS 2,600,000,000. The Expected profit shall be: TSHS (2,600,000,000 –
2,550,000,000) TSHS 50,000,000.
The current spot exchange rate is TSHS 189.58/ZAR and the three-month forward rate is TSHS 175.50/ZAR.
Based on the financial expert analysis of the exchange rate, you are pretty confident that the spot exchange rate
will be TSHS 186.58/ZAR in three months. Assume that you would like to buy or sell South African Rand (ZAR)
International Parity Relationship and Exchange Rate Forecasting : 71
1,000,000.
Required:
(i)
What actions does the speculator need to take to speculate in the forward market? What is the expected
Tanzanian Shillings (TSHS) profit from speculation?
(ii) What would be your speculative profit in dollar terms if the spot exchange rate actually turns out to be TSHS
167.46/ZAR.
2. Apply Purchasing Power Parity and Interest Rate Parity to determine opportunity for commodity and
interest arbitrage profit respectively
[Learning outcome b].
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Interest Rate Parity (IRP) like the rest of the theories are equilibrium
conditions. It follows that when these theories hold (i.e. they are operating at equilibrium) there is no opportunity
for arbitrage profit. Contrary, any disequilibrium (disparities) would entail that the opportunity for arbitrage profit
exist and one can benefit from such exchange rate disparity. While, disequilibrium in interest rate parity theory
amounts to interest rate arbitrage, similar condition under purchasing power parity leads to commodity arbitrage
opportunity under law of one price.
4.2.1 Purchasing power parity disequilibrium and commodity arbitrage opportunity
The PPP absolute version the LOP is formally represented by the equation: Et= pd (t)/pf (t), it provides that the
exchange rate between two countries is simply the ratio of prices of a particular product in the countries.
Commodity arbitrage exists if the Law of Price does not hold. It occurs when the exchange rate implied by
Purchasing Power Parity is different from the actual/ given exchange rate. It involves the purchase of a particular
product/ commodity in the country where it is cheaper (undervalued currency) and sell in the country where it is
expensive and make arbitrage profit.
A kilo of salt is sold for TSHS 2,000 in Tanzania while the same kilo of salt is sold for KZS 125 in Kenya. Assume
the actual exchange rate (Market rate) is provided to be TSZ 17/KZS and that no transportation costs. Required:
Is commodity arbitrage possible given the above information? Calculate the arbitrage profit if a trader can
purchase up to 100,000 kilograms of salt from either country.
The commodity arbitrage exists if the actual/provided exchange rate differs/is inconsistent with exchange rate
implied by the law of one price of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The Implied exchange rate between
TSHS/KZS is given by a ratio between PsTZ (Price of Kilo of salt in Tanzania) and PsKES (Price of kilo of salt in
Kenya). Thus Et (TSHS/KZS) = PsTZ/PsKES. Therefore: Et (TSHS/KES) = TSHS 2,000/KES 125 = TSHS/KZS
16, which differ with Actual rate of TSHS/KZS 17. Hence the commodity arbitrage exists.
Solution
Computation of commodity arbitrage profit:
From the above result it is observed that the Tanzanian shillings is undervalued by the market/ actual rate hence,
the procedures/steps to realize the commodity arbitrage profit would be as follows:
(i) Purchase 100,000kgs of salt from Tanzania; total cost would be TSHS 200,000,000 [100,000Kgs * TSHS
2000.]
(ii) Ship/transport the 100,000kgs of salt to Kenya to be sold at KZS 125 each kilo. Total revenue amounts to
KZS 12,500,000.
(iii) The KZS 12,500,000 Will then is converted into TSHS at the actual rate of TSHS/KZS 17.
You obtain TSHS 212,500,000 i.e [TSHS 17/KZS *KZS 12,500,000]
The arbitrage profit is therefore TSHS 12,500,000. [i.e. TSHS 212,500,000-200,000,000]
Arbitrage profit per kilo would be TSHS 12,500,000/Kgs 100,000, Profit per kilo = TSHS 125.
It should be noted that the direction of commodity movements and benefit from commodity arbitrage will depend
on the currency which is undervalued in relation to another. The rule is the trader should always purchase the
commodity from the country whose currency is undervalued (cheap) and sell it in the country whose currency is
overvalued (expensive).
It should be noted that the direction of commodity movements and benefit from commodity arbitrage will depend
on the currency which is undervalued in relation to another. The rule is the trader should always purchase the
commodity from the country whose currency is undervalued (cheap) and sell it in the country whose currency is
overvalued (expensive).
72
Global Business Environment
Kisukuru Int. Company limited an international firm based in Tanzania has recently observed that a product
called magadi is also obtained in Kenya. A ton of magadi is sold for TSHS 2,000,000 in Meru Tanzania while the
same ton is sold for KZS 125,000 in Nakuru Kenya.
Given that the current average market rate between TSHS/KZS is 17 and that transportation costs between Meru
and Nakuru is TSHS 500,000 or (KZS 55,000) per trip; and that the exchange rates are expected to be stable for
the foreseeable future.
Required:
a.
b.
Is commodity arbitrage viable given the above information? Why? (Support your answer with necessary
computations).
Calculate total arbitrage profit and profit per tonne (if any) that Kisukuru Int. Company can make, if it can
purchase 100,000 tons of magadi at any given period from either country.
4.2.2 Interest rate parity disequilibrium and interest arbitrage opportunity
Interest rate arbitrage exists if the IRP is not holding, that is the interest rate differentials are inconsistent with the
forward premium or discount at a given period of time. The process will involve borrowing and lending currencies.
The arbitrageur will borrow from the country whose currency is undervalued and invest in the country whose
currency is overvalued and convert the investment proceeds into the first currency borrowered and repay the
loan, the difference is arbitrage profit.
(a)
Covered interest arbitrage (CIA)
The spot and forward exchange markets are not, however constantly in the state of equilibrium described by
interest rate parity. When the market is not in equilibrium, the potential for “riskless” arbitrage profit exists. The
arbitrager who recognizes such an imbalance will move to take advantage of the disequilibrium by investing in
whichever currency offers the higher return on a covered basis. The process whereby an investor earns a riskfree profit by (1) borrowing funds in one currency, (2) exchanging those funds in the spot market for a foreign
currency, (3) investing the foreign currency at interest rates in a foreign country, (4) selling forward, at the time of
original investment, the investment proceeds to be received at maturity, (5) using the proceeds of the forward
sale to repay the original loan, and (6) having a remaining profit balance.
(b) Uncovered interest arbitrage
Investors borrow in countries and currencies exhibiting relatively low interest rates and convert the proceeds into
currencies that offer much higher interest rates. The transaction is “uncovered” because the investor does not
sell the higher yielding currency proceeds forward.
You are given the following information:
Exchange rates:
Spot rate
TSHS 2500/£
1 year forward rate
= TSHS 2700/£
Interest rates:
Tanzania 20% per annum
United Kingdom 4% per annum.
The amounts available for borrowing is 1,000,000, from either country.
Required:
(a) Does the IRP Hold? Justify your answer.
(b) If arbitrage opportunities exist determine the covered interest arbitrage profit.
Solution to example
(a)
Test whether the arbitrage holds. It holds if the interest rate differentials equals from forward premium or
discount.
Forward differentials:
,
International Parity Relationship and Exchange Rate Forecasting : 73
1 year Forward premium or discount on £
1 year Forward premium or discount on £
7%
7%
The interest rate differentials 16% is inconsistent with the forward premium on £ 7%. Therefore, arbitrage
opportunity
The interestdoes
rateexist.
differentials 16% is inconsistent with the forward premium on £ 7%. Therefore, arbitrage
opportunity does exist.
(b) Calculation of interest rate arbitrage profit
(b) Calculation of interest rate arbitrage profit
In order to determine the direction of the fund, i.e. where one should borrow and invest in order to realise
arbitrage
profit
identifiedthe
in (a)
above of
compute
the i.e.
covered
Yield.
is achieved
by adding
to
In order to
determine
direction
the fund,
where
one This
should
borrow and
invest forward
in orderpremium
to realise
nominal
interest
rate
for
the
currency
trading
at
forward
premium
and
deducting
forward
discount
to
nominal
arbitrage profit identified in (a) above compute the covered Yield. This is achieved by adding forward premium to
interest
for the
currency
at trading
forward at
discount
that if and
one deducting
currency isforward
trading discount
at forward
nominal rate
interest
rate
for the trading
currency
forward[note
premium
topremium
nominal
the
other
one
must
trading
on
forward
discount.
Since
pound
is
trading
at
a
premium
of
7%
the
Covered
yield on
interest rate for the currency trading at forward discount [note that if one currency is trading at forward premium
the
other(£)
one
must trading
on forward
Sinceand
pound
trading yield
at a premium
of 7%– the
Covered yield
Pounds
– United
Kingdom
4% discount.
7%
11%,
the is
Covered
on the TSHS
Tanzania
20% on
Pounds
(£) – United Kingdom
7% 13%.
4%
7%
11%, and the Covered yield on the TSHS – Tanzania
20%
7% 13%.
The rule: Borrow from the country with low covered yield and invest in a currency with high covered interest yield.
Hence
theBorrow
interestfrom
arbitrage
is in favour
of Tanzania.
Borrow
invest inwith
TSHS.
The rule:
the country
with low
covered yield
and pounds
invest inand
a currency
high covered interest yield.
Hence the interest arbitrage is in favour of Tanzania. Borrow pounds and invest in TSHS.
Covered Interest Arbitrage computation
Covered Interest Arbitrage computation
(i) Borrow £ 1000,000 at 4%, after a year you repay 1,000,000* 1.04= £1,040,000
(ii)
borrowed
1,000,000
into
Tanzanians
shilling
at spot rate of TSHS 2,500/£. You
(i) Covert
Borrow the
£ 1000,000
at amount
4%, afterofa £year
you repay
1,000,000*
1.04=
£1,040,000
obtain
TSHS
2,500,000,000.
(ii) Covert the borrowed amount of £ 1,000,000 into Tanzanians shilling at spot rate of TSHS 2,500/£. You
(iii) Invest
TSHS
2,500,000,000 at 20% for a year, investment proceeds will be TSHS 2,500,000,000 × 1.2=
obtain the
TSHS
2,500,000,000.
TSHS
3,000,000,000.
(iii) Invest the TSHS 2,500,000,000 at 20% for a year, investment proceeds will be TSHS 2,500,000,000 × 1.2=
(iv) Sell
the3,000,000,000.
investments proceeds of TSHS 3,000,000,000 one year forward at TSHS 2700/£; you obtain [TSHS
TSHS
3,000,000,000/
TSHSproceeds
2700/£] =of£1,111,111.1
(iv) Sell the investments
TSHS 3,000,000,000 one year forward at TSHS 2700/£; you obtain [TSHS
The
covered
interest
arbitrage
= £ 71,111 [i.e. £1,111,111.1- £1,040,000].
3,000,000,000/ TSHS 2700/£] =profit
£1,111,111.1
The covered interest arbitrage profit = £ 71,111 [i.e. £1,111,111.1- £1,040,000].
The following exchange rate and interest rate quotes for the UK pound and the euro are available:
The following exchange rate and interest rate quotes for the UK pound and the euro are available:
Currency
Spot rate
3month- forward rate
3 month -Interest rate
(annualized)
Currency
Spot rate
3month- forward rate
3 month -Interest rate
UK pound
€1.5523-35/£
€1.5288-337/£
8.00%
(annualized)
UK
pound
Euro
€1.5523-35/£
€1.5288-337/£
Euro
8.00%
3.96%
3.96%
Required:
Required:
(a) Demonstrate the validity of the Interest Rate Parity condition and discuss your result..
(b)
how to the
realize
a profitable
opportunity
via covered
interest
rate arbitrage
and calculate the profit per
(a) Show
Demonstrate
validity
of the Interest
Rate Parity
condition
and discuss
your result..
£1,000,000
arbitraged.
(b) Show how to realize a profitable opportunity via covered interest rate arbitrage and calculate the profit per
(c) Discuss
the arbitraged.
implications of Interest Rate Parity for the determination of exchange rates.
£1,000,000
(c) Discuss the implications of Interest Rate Parity for the determination of exchange rates.
Currently, the spot exchange rate is TSHS 1500/$ and the three-month forward exchange
The
three-month
rate rate
is 8.0%
per annum
thethe
Tanzania
and 5.8%
per exchange
annum in
Currently,
the spotinterest
exchange
is TSHS
1500/$inand
three-month
forward
you
can
borrow
as
much
as
TSHS
3,000,000
or
$
2,000,000
[
NBAA,
MAY
2012]
The three-month interest rate is 8.0% per annum in the Tanzania and 5.8% per annum in
you can borrow as much as TSHS 3,000,000 or $ 2,000,000 [ NBAA, MAY 2012]
Required:
Required:
(i) Determine whether the interest rate parity is currently holding
(i) Determine whether the interest rate parity is currently holding
rate is TSHS 1520/$.
the US.
Assume
that
rate
is TSHS
1520/$.
the US. Assume that
74
Global Business Environment
(ii) If the IRP is not holding, how would you carry out covered interest arbitrage? Show all the steps and
determine the arbitrage profit.
(iii) Explain how the IRP will be restored as a result of covered arbitrage activities.
Kwelea-Kwelea Co is a Tanzanian- based company which has the following expected transactions. Two months
expected receipt of $3,400,000 and expected payment of $2,400,000 due in two months’ time. The company is
also due to receive $3,000,000 in three months’ time. The finance manager has collected the following
information:
Spot rate [TSHS/$]:
Two months forward rate [TSHS / $]:
Three months forward rate ($ per £):
1620 ± 20
1629 ± 30
1646 ± 40
Money market rates for Kwelea-Kwelea Co:
Borrowing
Deposit
One-year Tanzania interest rate:
15%
One-year dollar interest rate:
5.5%
10%
5%
Required:
(a) Calculate the expected TSHS receipts/payments in two months by Kwelea-Kwelea co Ltd using forward
market hedge.
(b) Calculate the expected TSHS receipts in two months using a money-market hedge and recommend whether
a forward market hedge or a money market hedge should be used.
(c) Comment on the parity implication on your results in (a) and (b) above.
3. Evaluate the Need for Exchange Rate Forecasting and Apply Different Techniques to Forecast
Exchange Rates
Learning outcome c]
Decisions regarding international business transactions and activities require consideration of multiple currencies
and the impact of changes of their values on such activities, business events and transactions. In order to be able
to make precise decision on whether and when to mitigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on their
undertakings, the multinational corporations, international firms and business men operating in a global context
are inevitably in need for exchange rate forecasting. This becomes even more critical under the floating exchange
rate regime where exchange rate is dependent on market forces. It follows that the global firms, traders,
arbitrageurs, speculators and public in general need to proactively forecast state of exchange rate and
incorporate the output of such forecasting in their decision-making equations. These decisions could be as
informal as travelling overseas to as formal as capital budgeting, global financing, and speculation decisions by
business firms and traders. Exchange rate forecasting is thus critical as it enables managers to avoid making
currency risk unconscious decisions. Although forecasting could not be taken as accurate as to the level of
eliminating the currency risk, it can play a great deal in minimizing that risk.
3.1 The need for exchange rate forecasting
It is stated earlier in this study guide chapter that the exchange rates a significant part of long-term decisions
likely to be interrupted by change in value of currencies denominating transactions and activities of such
decisions. The exchange rate forecasting is therefore a pre-requisite in implementing different decisions
especially, those which involve the use of multiple currencies. Exchange rate forecasting can be described as a
formal and a proactive process of generating expectations about value of domestic currency relative to other
currencies. The exchange forecasting is needed for various reasons. The reasons and motives for exchange rate
forecasting are as discussed in this section.
(i)
Speculating purposes
Speculation involves making decisions to buy, sell or hold a certain amount of a currency/derivative instrument in
anticipation of making profit out of exchange rate fluctuations. Speculators therefore buy currency or derivatives
today if it is expected that the currency/derivative will appreciate in value so that to sell it in future and vice versa. The speculators make decisions regarding their activities in spot market, forward market, option and
futures markets with the help of exchange rate forecasting.
(ii)
Hedging purposes
Speculation involves making decisions to buy, sell or hold a certain amount of a currency/derivative instrument in
anticipation of making profit out of exchange rate fluctuations. Speculators therefore buy currency or derivatives
today if it is expected that the currency/derivative will appreciate in value so that to sell it in future and vice versa. The speculators make decisions regarding their activities in spot market, forward market, option and
International Parity Relationship and Exchange Rate Forecasting : 75
futures markets with the help of exchange rate forecasting.
(ii)
Hedging purposes
The global firms or individuals engage in hedging activities in order to minimise or eliminate altogether the risk
arising from exchange rate volatility. Since hedging is not by itself a cost free activity, the firm or individual will
only hedge when necessary and when the benefits of hedging exceed involved costs. The decision whether to
hedge a transaction (payable or receivable) involving foreign currency but due in future date or otherwise will
depend on whether the spot rate prevailing at the date of settlement is favorable or not. To know the expected
spot rate at the date of settlement require forecasting. Hedging decision is therefore influenced by the results from
exchange rate forecasting.
(iii) Pricing decisions
The forecasting of exchange rate is important for international business firms and multinational corporations in
setting prices of products that are necessarily produced in one country, from imported raw material, and
consequently sold in difference foreign countries. Pricing decision for a product requires the understanding of
whether the currency denominating its sale or purchase of raw materials is strong or weak relative to the domestic
currency. We need the forecasting of exchange rate to achieve that.
(iv) Financing decisions
In addition to information regarding interest rates business firms will prefer its debts (financing source) to be
denominated in a currency expected to depreciate over the loan period. This will make the company use fewer
domestic currencies in the repayment of principal and interest amount (cheaper). This calls for exchange rate
forecasting.
(v)
Investment and capital budgeting decisions
More importantly the exchange rate forecasting is required in making long-term foreign investment decisions. The
international business firms will need to invest in a currency expected to appreciate over the investment period
such that the fewer foreign currencies will yield substantial amount in domestic currency. In addition to that the
international capital budgeting process requires estimation of cash flows expressed in a currency of investment.
This equally calls for the forecasting of the expected spot exchange rates through which the estimated foreign
cash flows will be converted into domestic currency. The equilibrium theories such as the International Fisher
Effect (IFE) and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) are commonly used for this purpose.
(vi) Strategic planning
The multinational firms require exchange rate forecasting for strategic planning such as the choice of the
production location, foreign markets and source of materials. These multinational firms will normally need to incur
costs in countries where currencies are expected to depreciate and earn revenue in countries where currencies
are expected to appreciate. The exchange rate forecasting is therefore crucial to facilitate the strategic decision
making process by global firms and international business enterprises.
(vii) Arbitrage decisions
Amongst the participants in the foreign exchange market is arbitrageurs. The arbitrageurs engage in arbitrage
activities by buying currencies from where they are considered cheaper and resell them where they are
expensive. The arbitrage opportunities could be exploited where two markets are involved, literary called bilateral
arbitrage, or triangular arbitrage in which the prices of three currencies are involved, referred as triangular
arbitrage. The types of arbitrage opportunities, how to check for the same and calculation of risk free arbitrage
profit have been adequately covered in this study guide under A2: Foreign Exchange Market. It follows that in
determining opportunities for arbitrage profit the traders requires forecasting of exchange rate otherwise they will
not be able to make a guaranteed arbitrage profit.
(viii) Central bank intervention
The Central Bank of any country plays an important role in exchange control and in ensuring the stability of her
country’s currency. Under the floating exchange system particularly central banks infrequently interferes foreign
exchange markets in order to regulate exchange rates especially where excessive unfavorable volatility of
domestic currency is anticipated. In order to know whether and when to intervene the central banks require
exchange rate forecasting. This is why there is no a purely flexible exchange rate system but rather the dirty float
system where market forces are allowed to determine the exchange with regular interferences in the foreign
exchange markets.
3.2 Different techniques (approaches) for forecasting exchange rates
exchange rate forecasting. This is why there is no a purely flexible exchange rate system but rather the dirty float
system where market forces are allowed to determine the exchange with regular interferences in the foreign
exchange markets.
76
Global Business Environment
TheDifferent
importance
of exchange
rate forecasting
in a global exchange
business environment
has well been articulated in the
3.2
techniques
(approaches)
for forecasting
rates
The importance
exchange
rateitforecasting
in a globaltobusiness
environment
has
well been
articulated which
in the
previous
section.ofFrom
that point
becomes necessary
understanding
the main
methods
or techniques
The importance
exchange
rateitforecasting
in aforecasters
globaltobusiness
has
well
been
articulated
in the
previous
section.ofFrom
that purpose.
point
becomes
necessary
understanding
main
methods
or techniques
which
can
be available
for
this
While the
use aenvironment
wide the
variety
of
forecasting
techniques
or
previous
section.
From
thatbe
point
it becomes
necessary
to understanding
main
methods
techniques
which
can be available
for can
this
purpose.
While
the
forecasters
use approaches
a wide the
variety
of
forecasting
techniques
or
approaches,
the most
classified
into three.
The distinctive
popularly
beingorused
for exchange
can
be available
for
this be
purpose.
While
the
forecasters
use approaches
a wide
variety
of
forecasting
or
approaches,
theare
most
can
classified
into three.
The distinctive
popularly
being usedtechniques
for exchange
rate forecasting
efficient
market
approach,
fundamental
approach
and technical
approach.
approaches,
theare
most
can bemarket
classified
into three.
The distinctive
approaches
popularly
being used for exchange
rate
forecasting
efficient
approach,
fundamental
approach
and technical
approach.
rate
aremarket
efficientapproach
market approach, fundamental approach and technical approach.
(i) forecasting
The efficient
(i) The efficient market approach
(i) The efficient market approach
The market is said to be efficient if the prices of the commodities (currencies) in the market reflects all available
The
market such
is saidthat
to be
efficient
if the prices
of the
commodities
in the
market
reflects all
available
information
it is
not possible
to make
abnormal
profit.(currencies)
The efficient
market
hypothesis
has
strong
The
market
is
said
to
be
efficient
if
the
prices
of
the
commodities
(currencies)
in
the
market
reflects
all
available
information
such
that
it
is
not
possible
to
make
abnormal
profit.
The
efficient
market
hypothesis
has
strong
implications for forecasting if the foreign exchange market is efficient. It suggests that the current exchange
rate
information
that all
it isrelevant
to available
make abnormal
The
efficient
has strong
implications
for
forecasting
ifnot
thepossible
foreign
exchange
market
is profit.
efficient.
Itassuggests
that
thehypothesis
current
exchange
rate
has
already such
reflected
publicly
information
such
money market
supplies,
inflation
rates,
trade
implications
for
forecasting
if the The
foreign
exchange
market
is efficient.
that
the market
current
exchange
rate
has alreadyand
reflected
relevant
publicly
available
information
such Itassuggests
money
supplies,
inflation
rates, trade
balances,
output allgrowth.
exchange
rate
will then
change
only
when
the
receives
new
has
already
reflected
all
relevant
publicly
available
information
such
as
money
supplies,
inflation
rates,
trade
balances, and
output
The exchange
rate will
change
the change
market randomly
receives over
new
information.
Since
newsgrowth.
by definition
is unpredictable
thethen
exchange
rateonly
will when
therefore
balances,
output
growth.
The exchange
rate will
thefollow
market
receives
new
information.
Since
news
bythe
definition
ismarket
unpredictable
thethen
rateonly
will
therefore
change
time. In thisand
regard,
under
efficient
approach,
ifexchange
the change
exchange
ratewhen
indeed,
therandomly
random over
walk
information.
Since
news
bythe
definition
ismarket
unpredictable
rate will
therefore
change
randomly
time.
In the
this future
regard,
under
efficient
ifexchange
the
rate
indeed, rate.
follow
random
walk
pattern,
exchange
rate
is expected
toapproach,
be the the
same
as exchange
the current
exchange
Tothe
be
precise, over
in a
time.
Inthat
thisrandom
regard,
under
the
efficient
if the
exchange
rate
follow
walk
pattern,
the
future
exchange
rate
is it
expected
toapproach,
be that
the same
asexchange
the current
exchange
rate.
Tothe
be random
precise,
in a
sense
walk
hypothesis
is market
suggested
today’s
rate
isindeed,
the best
predictor
of tomorrow
pattern,
the
future exchange
rate is it
expected
to be that
the same
the current
exchange
rate.
To be precise,
in a
sense that
random
walk hypothesis
is suggested
today’sasexchange
rate
is the best
predictor
of tomorrow
exchange
rate.
sense thatrate.
random walk hypothesis it is suggested that today’s exchange rate is the best predictor of tomorrow
exchange
exchange rate.
(ii) The fundamental approach
(ii) The fundamental approach
(ii) The fundamental approach
This is a frequently used approach to forecasting future exchange rates and applies the fundamental relationships
This is a frequently
used approach
to forecasting
exchange
rates and applies
the fundamental
relationships
between
economic variables
and exchange
rates.future
It examines
macroeconomic
variables
such as inflation,
interest
This
a frequently
used
approach
to forecasting
future
exchange
rates
applies
the fundamental
relationships
between
economic
variables
and
rates.
It examines
macroeconomic
variables
such
as inflation,
interest
rates,isnational
income
growth
andexchange
changes
in monetary
policies
that
areand
likely
to
influence
currency’s
projections.
between
economic
variables
It examines
macroeconomic
variables
such
as inflation,
interest
rates,
national
income
growthand
andexchange
changes
ininvolves
monetary
thatconditions
are likely to
influence
currency’s
projections.
The
simplest
form
of fundamental
analysisrates.
thepolicies
of parity
such
as Purchasing
Power
Parity
rates,simplest
national
income
growth
changes
monetary
policies
thatconditions
are likelythat
to
influence
currency’s
projections.
The
form
of fundamental
analysis
involves
of
parity
such
Power
Parity
(PPP)
and International
Fisherand
Effect
(IFE).inThe
PPP the
for
example
indicates
in as
the Purchasing
long
run exchange
rates
The
simplest
form purchasing
of fundamental
analysis
involves
of
parity
conditions
such
Purchasing
Powercan
Parity
(PPP)
and
International
Fisher power
Effect
(IFE).
PPP the
for In
example
indicates
in as
the
long run exchange
rates
reflect
the relative
of the The
currencies.
this
approach
a that
multiple
regression
models
be
(PPP)
and
International
Fisher
Effect
(IFE).
PPP for In
indicates
that
ininthe
long
run exchange
rates
reflect
the to
relative
purchasing
power
of the The
currencies.
thisequation.
approach
a such
multiple
regression
models
can
be
developed
incorporate
selected
fundamental
variables
inexample
the
As
this
approach
the exchange
reflect
the to
relative
power
of
the currencies.
thisequation.
approach
a such
multiple
regression
models
can be
developed
incorporate
selected
fundamental
variables
in(dependent
the
As
in this
approach
the exchange
rate
is expressed
aspurchasing
a function
of
other
economic
variablesIn
variable).
developed
to incorporate
selected
fundamental
variables
the equation.
As such in this approach the exchange
rate
is expressed
as a function
of other
economic
variablesin(dependent
variable).
rate
expressed
as a function of other economic variables (dependent variable).
(iii) is
Technical
approach
(iii) Technical approach
(iii) Technical approach
Technical analysis focuses exclusively on past prices and volume patterns and movements while totally ignoring
Technical analysis
focuses
on past
prices and
volume
patterns and
while
totally the
ignoring
fundamental
economic
and exclusively
political factors
to forecast
currency
prospects.
The movements
approach first
analyses
past
Technical analysis
focuses
past
prices
and
volume
patterns
while
totally
ignoring
fundamental
and exclusively
political
to forecast
currency
prospects.
The
approach
first
analyses
the
past
behaviour
of economic
the exchange
rates
for factors
theonpurpose
of identifying
patterns
andand
thenmovements
projects them
into
the future
to
fundamental
and rates
political
to forecast
prospects.
The
first repeats
analyses
the past
behaviour forecast.
of economic
the exchange
for factors
the purpose
of identifying
thenapproach
projects
them
into theitself,
future
to
generate
Clearly,
the technical
approach
iscurrency
based patterns
on
the and
premise
that
history
the
behaviour
of the exchange
rates
forfundamental
the purpose
of identifying
patterns
thenthe
projects
themrepeats
into
theitself,
future
to
generate
forecast.
Clearly,
thethe
technical
approach
is based
on
the and
premise
that
the
technical approach
differs
from
approach
in that
it does
not
use
keyhistory
economic
variables
such
generate
forecast.
Clearly,
thethe
technical
based
the not
premise
that
repeats
the
technical
fundamental
approach
in thaton
it does
usetwo
the
keyhistory
economic
variables
such
as
moneyapproach
supply ordiffers
tradefrom
balance
for the approach
purpose
ofisforecasting.
There
are
primary
methods
of itself,
technical
technical
approach
from
the fundamental
approach
in that
it does
notare
use
thesophisticated
key economic
variables
such
as
money
supply and
ordiffers
trade
balance
forChartists
the purpose
of forecasting.
There
two
primary
methods
of technical
analyst:
charting
trend
analysis.
examine
bar
charts
or use
more
computer-based
as
money
supply
or trade
forChartists
the
purpose
of forecasting.
are
twoseek
primary
methods
oftrends
technical
analyst:
charting
and
trend
analysis.
examine
bar chartsThere
or use
more
sophisticated
computer-based
extrapolation
techniques
to balance
find
recurring
price
patterns.
Trend-following
systems
to identify
price
via
analyst:
charting
and computations.
trend
analysis.
Chartists
examineTrend-following
bar charts or use
more seek
sophisticated
extrapolation
techniques
to find
recurring
price patterns.
systems
to identifycomputer-based
price trends via
various mathematical
extrapolation
techniques
to find recurring price patterns. Trend-following systems seek to identify price trends via
various
mathematical
computations.
various mathematical computations.
A large number of forecasting methods are now available ranging from the most naïve method, using the most
A
large observation
number of forecasting
methods
ranging
the most
naïve method,
most
recent
as the forecast
for are
the now
nextavailable
period, to
highlyfrom
complex
approaches,
such using
as thetheuse
of
A large observation
number
of forecasting
methods
now
available
ranging
from
the
most
naïve of
method,
most
recent
as models
the forecast
for are
thethe
next
period,
to
highly
complex
approaches,
such using
as thetheuse
of
structural
econometric
and
state-of
– art
time series
methods
or combination
methods.
recent observation
as models
the forecast
for thethenext
to highly
complex
approaches,
such as the use of
structural
econometric
and state-of
– artperiod,
time series
methods
or combination
of methods.
structural econometric models and state-of the – art time series methods or combination of methods.
Discuss any four reasons as to why Multinational Corporation may need exchange rate forecasting.
Discuss any four reasons as to why Multinational Corporation may need exchange rate forecasting.
Discuss any four reasons as to why Multinational Corporation may need exchange rate forecasting.
4.4 Evaluate the implication of balance of payments on exchange rate determination
4.4 Evaluate the implication of balance of payments on exchange rate determination
[Learning outcome d]
4.4 Evaluate the implication of balance of payments on exchange rate determination
[Learning outcome d]
[Learning outcome d]
The country’s balance of payments is commonly defined as the record of transactions of its import and export
The country’s
balance
commonlyrecords
definedofasallthe
record transactions
of transactions
of its import
andand
export
over
a specified
period.ofIt payments
representsisaccounting
monetary
between
a country
the
The
balance
ofIt payments
isaccounting
commonly
definedexports
record
of transactions
ofservices,
its import
andfinancial
export
over country’s
a specified
period.
represents
records
ofasallthe
monetary
transactions
between
a country
and
the
rest
of
the world
including
payments
for
the country's
and
imports
of goods,
and
over
a specified
period.
It represents
records
of allexceeds
monetary
between
a country
and
rest
of
the
world
including
payments
country's
exports
and imports
services,
capital,
as well
as
financial
transfers.accounting
Ifforthethe
level
of imports
thetransactions
levelofofgoods,
exports,
there
is and
saidfinancial
to bethe
a
rest ofon
the
world
payments
the
country's
and
goods,
services,
capital,
asthe
well
asincluding
financial
transfers.
Ifforthe
level
of
imports
exceeds
the
levelofof
exports,
there
is and
saidfinancial
to be a
deficit
balance
of payments
which
equates
to a
netexports
payment
in imports
a
foreign
currency.
For
simplicity,
assume
capital,
as
well
as
financial
Ifdeficit
the
level
of
imports
exceeds
the
level
of
exports,
there
is said
to befor
a
deficit
the
balance
of payments
which
equates
tomust
a
netbe
payment
in
a
foreign
currency.
For
simplicity,
assume
that
theon
UK
has
a balance
oftransfers.
payments
which
funded
through
US$;
in
such a
case
the
demand
deficit
onUK
thehas
balance
of payments
which
equates
tomust
a netbe
payment
in
aare
foreign
currency.
For
simplicity,
assume
that the
aand
balance
of payments
deficit
which
through
US$;
in such
a
case
the demand
for
US$
would
rise
the
supply
of sterling
would
increase
asfunded
attempts
made
to
acquire
US
currency.
Basic
that
UK has
aand
balance
ofdictate
payments
which
must be
through
US$; to
in such
a case
the demand
for
US$
would
riseand
the supply
of sterling
would
asfunded
attempts
are made
acquire
USincreases
currency.
lawsthe
of
supply
demand
that deficit
when
the increase
demand
for
a
commodity
increases,
its price
asBasic
well
US$when
would
rise
anddemand
the
supply
sterling
would
as a
attempts
are made
to acquire
USincreases
currency.
laws
of
supply
and
thatgoes
when
the increase
demand
for
commodity
increases,
itsrelative
price
asBasic
well
and
the
supply
goes
updictate
theofprice
down.
As a result,
sterling
would
depreciate
to
the US$.
lawswhen
of supply
and demand
thatgoes
whendown.
the demand
for asterling
commodity
increases,
itsrelative
price increases
as well
and
the supply
goes updictate
the price
As a result,
would
depreciate
to the US$.
and when the supply goes up the price goes down. As a result, sterling would depreciate relative to the US$.
To be specific, on the question of the implications of balance of payment on domestic currency value, the
To be specific,
on the question
the implications
of balance
of paymentvariables.
on domestic
value,
discussion
is interesting
and veryofmuch
linked with other
macro-economic
It is currency
clearly put
that the
To
be specific,
on the question
the implications
of balance
of paymentvariables.
on domestic
value,
discussion
is interesting
and veryofmuch
linked with other
macro-economic
It is currency
clearly put
that the
discussion is interesting and very much linked with other macro-economic variables. It is clearly put that the
International Parity Relationship and Exchange Rate Forecasting : 77
balance of payments comprises of payments for imported goods and services and receipts from the exportation
of goods and services to the rest of the world. The more we import the more we as a country pay and the less we
receive from the rest of the world. This amounts to deficit balance of payments. The need to import more creates
demand for foreign currencies by an importing country and could as a result lead to fall in value of the domestic
currency. Low productivity locally, makes the general price level (inflation) for local goods and services high
relative to those of foreign countries. This encourages importation and discourages exportation. Consequent to
that demand for foreign currencies to pay for imported goods and services increases, while that of domestic
currency diminishes. As a result the amount of domestic currency required to acquire a unit of foreign currency in
question increases. This implies a depreciation of domestic currency value. It follows that, an increased export,
raises the demand for local currency by the rest of the world and boosts its value relative to other currencies, and
vice-versa.
Exchange rate at time 1: TSHS 2,000 = USD 1;
Exchange rate at time 2: TSHS 2,500 = USD 1.
The implication of the exchange rates above is that the TSHS has depreciated in relation to the USD. The USD
has appreciated in relation to the TSHS. Under exchange rate 1, one USD would have cost TSHS 2,000.
However, under exchange rate 2, USD 1 now costs TSHS 2,500. This may have been due to a deficit in the
balance of payments for the country that uses TSHS. The demand for USD would have increased causing its
price to inflate.
In the context of a country like Tanzania a fall in Tanzanian Shillings is continually experienced against major
currencies. Specifically, the value of TSHS against US dollar, Sterling Pound and Euro is noted to be unstable
year after year. This can indeed be associated with payment for massive importation to cater for deficit supply of
various goods and services in the country. This creates a deficit in the balance of payment which is equal to the
net payment in the stated foreign currencies, hence depreciation of TSHS against those currencies. The focus
and move towards industrial economy could partly address this issue in future. As such deliberate efforts need to
be exerted to promote local production. This could be possible for the Government creating enabling environment
such as infrastructure, predictable power supply, and improved quality of locally made products, stable and
predictable policies and a changed mindset of the population regarding international trade.
The following is an example show how depreciation of depreciation Tanzania shilling against the EUR (or
appreciation of EUR against the TSHS) will occur due to changes in balance of payments:
If there is excess supply of goods and service in Europe, the prices for such products will tend to decrease. The
decrease in the prices of European products will lead to an increased demand for goods, services and
investment for let say in Tanzania. The increased demand for European products in Tanzania will increase
demand for EUR (increase supply of TSHS), as a result the price of EUR rises (TSHS falls):
– The Tanzania begins to import more goods from the Europe (i.e. services, gifts, investments etc. Demand for
EUR increases (supply of TSHS increases.).
– Effect – TSHS price of the Euro rises (Euro price of the TSHS falls.) and the TSHS depreciates.
Alternatively, a surplus balance of payments would lead to an appreciation of a TSHS relative to EUR.
Answers to Test Yourself Questions
Answer to TY 1
(1a) Maintain the same Tanzanian shilling price:
The new exchange rate, post devaluation will be
TSHS 1,600 x 1.15
The current price in TSHS
= TSHS 1,840
= $50 x TSHS 1,600
= TSHS 80,000.
Sales revenues at the post devaluation rate
(TSHS 80,000 x 200,000)/ (TSHS 1,840)
= $8,695,652.
Direct cost = ($30 x 200,000)
= $6,000,000.
Contribution margin = $8,695,652 - $6,000,000 = $2,695,652
(1b) Maintain the same dollar price:
= TSHS 80,000.
Sales revenues at the post devaluation rate
(TSHS 80,000 x 200,000)/ (TSHS 1,840)
= $8,695,652.
Direct cost = ($30 x 200,000)
= $6,000,000.
Contribution margin = $8,695,652 - $6,000,000 = $2,695,652
78
Global Business Environment
(1b) Maintain the same dollar price:
The new sales volume will be 200,000 unitsx0.9
= 180,000 units.
The new price
TSHSwill
=$50
the realunitsx0.9
price = $200* R$4.00/$ = R$
800 units.
sales in
volume
be x200,000
180,000
Sales
revenues
180,000
x $50
The new
price in=TSHS
=$50
x the real price = $200* R$4.00/$ = $9,000,000
R$ 800
Direct
cost = ($30
x 189,000)
= $5,400,000
Sales revenues
= 180,000
x $50
$9,000,000
Contribution
= $9,000,000 - $5,400,000
= $3,600,000.
Direct cost = margin
($30 x 189,000)
$5,400,000
Contribution margin = $9,000,000 - $5,400,000
= $3,600,000.
In the short run, choose alternative b, as the contribution by maintaining the USD price is higher by $904,348 than
if
to be reduced.
Inthe
theprice
shortwere
run, choose
alternative b, as the contribution by maintaining the USD price is higher by $904,348 than
if the price were to be reduced.
Answer to TY 2
Answer to TY 2
2(a): If you believe the spot exchange rate will be TSHS 186.58/ZAR in three months. The speculator should buy
ZAR
three
forward for
thus theinspeculator
locksThe
in the
amount should
payable
in
2(a): 1,000,000
If you believe
themonths
spot exchange
rateTSHS
will be175.50/ZAR,
TSHS 186.58/ZAR
three months.
speculator
buy
three
months ofthree
TSHS
175,500,000
175.50* ZAR
1,000,000)
in forward
At maturity,
ZAR 1,000,000
months
forward (TSHS/ZAR
for TSHS 175.50/ZAR,
thus
the speculator
locks contract.
in the amount
payablei.e.
in
after
months
the speculator
will(TSHS/ZAR
receive ZAR
1000,000
sell thosein rands,
i.e.contract.
ZAR 1,000,000
spoti.e.
at
three three
months
of TSHS
175,500,000
175.50*
ZARand
1,000,000)
forward
At maturity,
TSHS
186.58.
He/ obtains
TSHS 186,580,000
186.58 *ZAR
after three
months
the speculator
will receive (TSHS
ZAR 1000,000
and 1,000,000).
sell those rands, i.e. ZAR 1,000,000 spot at
TSHS 186.58. He/ obtains TSHS 186,580,000 (TSHS 186.58 *ZAR 1,000,000).
The expected speculative profit will be: TSHS 11,080,000 = ZAR 1,000,000 x (TSHS/ZAR 186.58 –175.50). This
will
be materialized
the expert
on expected
spot1,000,000
rate turnsxto
be true after
three–175.50).
months, This
and
The only
expected
speculativeifprofit
will be:analysis
TSHS 11,080,000
= ZAR
(TSHS/ZAR
186.58
when
thebe
speculator
locks
the expert
amountanalysis
payableoninexpected
Tanzanian
Shillings
(TSHS)
South
Rand (ZAR)
will only
materialized
if the
spot
rate turns
to befortrue
afterAfrican
three months,
and
1,000,000
in forward contract.
when the speculator
locks the amount payable in Tanzanian Shillings (TSHS) for South African Rand (ZAR)
1,000,000 in forward contract.
2 (b): If the spot exchange rate actually turns out to be TSHS 167.46/ZAR in three months. The speculator will
record
lossspot
fromexchange
the long position
of TSHS
ZAR 1,000,000
x (TSHS/ZAR
167.46
-175.50).
Thiswill
is
2 (b): Ifa the
rate actually
turns8,040,000
out to be =TSHS
167.46/ZAR
in three months.
The
speculator
because
the speculator
willposition
be required
to paying
the amount
promised xin(TSHS/ZAR
the forward 167.46
contract
and otherwise
record a loss
from the long
of TSHS
8,040,000
= ZAR 1,000,000
-175.50).
This is
compelled
to sell
the ZARwill
1.000,000
at spot
rate (TSHS
167.46/ZAR)
whichinisthe
unfavourable.
because the
speculator
be required
to paying
the amount
promised
forward contract and otherwise
compelled to sell the ZAR 1.000,000 at spot rate (TSHS 167.46/ZAR) which is unfavourable.
Answer to TY 3
Answer to TY 3
(3a): The commodity arbitrage exists if the actual/provided exchange rate differs/is inconsistent with exchange
rate
by the lawarbitrage
of one price
The Implied exchange
rate
between
TSHS/KZS
is given
by a ratio
(3a):implied
The commodity
existsofifPPP.
the actual/provided
exchange
rate
differs/is
inconsistent
with exchange
between
PmTZ
(Price
ton of
magadi
in Tanzania)
and exchange
PmKE (Price
a ton of TSHS/KZS
magadi in Kenya).
rate implied
by the
lawofofa one
price
of PPP.
The Implied
rateofbetween
is given by a ratio
between PmTZ (Price of a ton of magadi in Tanzania) and PmKE (Price of a ton of magadi in Kenya).
Therefore
Therefore
The exchange rate implied by law of price under PPP differs with Actual (market) rate of TSHS/KZS 17. Hence
the
arbitrage
exists.
Thecommodity
exchange rate
implied
by law of price under PPP differs with Actual (market) rate of TSHS/KZS 17. Hence
the commodity arbitrage exists.
(3b) Commodity arbitrage profit: From the above result it is observed that the Tanzanian shillings is
undervalued
by thearbitrage
market/ actual
hence,
procedures/steps
to realizethat
the the
commodity
arbitrage
profit
(3b) Commodity
profit:rate
From
the the
above
result it is observed
Tanzanian
shillings
is
would
be as follows:
undervalued
by the market/ actual rate hence, the procedures/steps to realize the commodity arbitrage profit
would be as follows:
(i) Purchase 100,000tons of salt from Tanzania; Total cost would be TSHS 200,000,000 [100,000tons * TSHS
(i) 2000.]
Purchase 100,000tons of salt from Tanzania; Total cost would be TSHS 200,000,000 [100,000tons * TSHS
(ii) Ship/transport
the 100,000kgs of salt to Kenya to be sold at KZS 125 each kilo. Total revenue amounts to
2000.]
12,500,000.
(ii) KZS
Ship/transport
the 100,000kgs of salt to Kenya to be sold at KZS 125 each kilo. Total revenue amounts to
(iii) The
12,500,000 Will then is converted into TSHS at the actual rate of TSHS/KZS 17.
KZS KZS
12,500,000.
obtain
TSHS 212,500,000
i.e.
[TSHS 17/KZS
*KZS
(iii) You
The KZS
12,500,000
Will then is
converted
into TSHS
at12,500,000]
the actual rate of TSHS/KZS 17.
The
profit212,500,000
is therefore i.e.
=TSHS
12,000,000
[i.e. TSHS
[212,500,000 - (200,000,000+500,000)]
You arbitrage
obtain TSHS
[TSHS
17/KZS *KZS
12,500,000]
The arbitrage profit is therefore =TSHS 12,000,000 [i.e. TSHS [212,500,000 - (200,000,000+500,000)]
The arbitrage profit per kilo would be TSHS 12,000,000/Tons 100,000. Profit per ton of Magadi shall be TSHS
120.
The arbitrage profit per kilo would be TSHS 12,000,000/Tons 100,000. Profit per ton of Magadi shall be TSHS
120.
Answer TY 4
Answer TY 4
(4a) Demonstration of the validity of the interest rate parity condition
(4a) Demonstration of the validity of the interest rate parity condition
The validity of interest rate parity is observed when and if the interest rate differentials equals from forward
premium
or discount.
In this
validity
interest
parity
using
the given information.
The validity
of interest
rate case,
paritywe
is determine
observed the
when
and of
if the
interest
rate
differentials
equals from forward
premium or discount. In this case, we determine the validity of interest parity using the given information.
The 90-day forward discount is: (1.5288-1.5523)/1.5523=- 0.015
The effective
90-daydiscount
interest rate
differential is:
90-day forward
is: (1.5288-1.5523)/1.5523=0.015
The effective 90-day interest rate differential is:
International Parity Relationship and Exchange Rate Forecasting : 79
[(3.96% x (90/360) - 8% x (90/360)]/(1+8% x (90/360)) =-0.029
Interest Rate Parity does not hold, as the forward discount does not equal the interest rate differential. The
results show the existence of the covered interest rate arbitrage opportunity.
(4b) The calculation covered interest arbitrage profit implied in (a) above will be as follows;
—
—
—
—
Borrow £1,000,000
Repayments will be £1,020,000.
Buy the €1,552,350 spot using £1,000,000 and invest €1,552,350 at the euro interest rate of 0.92%.
At maturity value will be €1,566,632. The €1,566,632 forward for £1,024,746.
Arbitrage profit per £1,000,000 will be £4,746.
(4c) Discussion of the implications of interest rate parity for the determination of exchange rates
Assuming that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate, IRP can be written as:
St= [(1+i$)/ (1+i£)] E(St+1).
The exchange rate is thus determined by the relative interest rates and the expected future spot rate. Since
expectations are continuously revised as news hit the market, the exchange rate will exhibit highly dynamic,
random behaviour.
Answer to TY 5
Data and information given:
5 (i): Determining whether the interest rate parity holds:
Spot Rate = TSHS 1500/$; FR 3months
3 months interest rate: rTSHS = 2.0%; r$
Credit
(1+r TSHS)
= TSHS 152O/$;
= 1.45%
= TSHS 3,000,000 or $ 2,000
= 1.02
The forward rate implied by the interest parity theory is determined as
F = 1,500 (1.02/1.045)
F = TSHS/$ 1464.12.
The actual forward rate (TSHS 1500/$) differs with the forward rate implied by the Interest Rate Parity (TSHS
1464.12). Thus, IRP is not holding exactly and accordingly, covered interest arbitrage exists.
5 (ii): Arbitrage profit will be:
—
—
Borrow TSHS 3,000,000; repayment will be TSHS 3,060,000.
Convert the TSHS 3,000,000 at spot TSHS 1500/$ [Buy $ 2,000 spot using TSHS 3,000,000], you obtain $
2,000.
— Invest $ 2,000 at the pound interest rate of 1.45%; Maturity value will be $ 2029
— Sell $ 2029 forward for TSHS 1520/$ = TSHS 3,084,080
Arbitrage profit will be TSHS 24,080 [i.e. TSHS 3,084,080-3,060,000].
5 (iii): Following the arbitrage transactions described above: The Tanzanian interest rate will rise; The US
interest rate will fall; the spot exchange rate will rise; the forward exchange rate will fall. These adjustments will
continue until IRP holds.
Answer to TY 6
The relevant information and data given for Kwelea-Kwelea Co Ltd
Two Months Expected Receipts $3,400,000
Two months Expected payment ($2,400,000)
Net Exposed Amount
$1,000,000
Therefore, the exposed amount is receivable which is to be hedged against currency risk.
Expected Receipts in the 2 months: Net Amount Receipts US$ 1,000,000
80
Global Business Environment
2 months forward Rate: Bid (1629 – 30) =
Ask (1629 + 30)
=
Two months forward Rate
=
(6a): The forward market hedge on the net receipts of US$ 1,000,000 in TSHS shall be:
Sell the US$ 1,000,000 forward at
Receipts in TSHS
=
= US$ 1,000,000 x
= TSHS 1,599,000,000.
(6b): The money market hedge on US$ 1,000,000.
Net Receipts Exposed amount US$1,000,000. In order to hedge in the money market follows the Kwelea- kwelea
shall follow the following steps;
Borrow the amount in dollars at the r$ borrowing rate for 2 months [5.5% x 2/12] = 0.92%)
Amount to be borrowed:
Borrow X (1 + 0.92%) = $1,000,000
X
=
X
= US$ 990,884.
Convert the US$ 990,884 at spot bid (1620 – 20)
=
You obtain: $ 990,884 x
= TSHS 1,585,414,400
Invest the TSHS 1,585,414,400 at Tanzania Lending rate for 2 months (10% x ϮͬϭϮ ) = 1.67%,
Investment Proceeds: after 2 months:
= TSHS 1,585,414,400 (1 + 1.67%)
= TSHS 1,585,414,400 x 1.0167
= TSHS1,611,890,820.
Comparison and advice
Forward market Hedge (Receipts in TSHS)
= TSHS 1,599,000,000
Money Market Hedge (Receipts in TSHS)
= TSHS 1,611,890,820
The Company should use the money market hedge strategy as it maximizes receipt in TSHS as compared to
Forward market hedge.
(6c): The money market hedge receipts in Tanzanian Shillings (TSHS) do not equal to the forward market hedge
receipt in Tanzanian Shillings (TSHS). So therefore, the implication of the results is that the interest rate party
does not hold. It should be recalled that the IRP holds if forward rate differentials [forward market] equals to
interest rate differentials (money market).
Answer TY 7
A Multinational Corporation is a company engaged in producing and selling goods or services in more than one
country. It ordinarily consists of a parent company located in the home country and at least five or six foreign
subsidiaries, typically with a high degree of strategic interaction among the units.
Reasons for multinational corporations need for exchange rate forecasting- discussion on any four (4) of
the of the following reasons.






Hedging decision.
Short-term financing decision.
Short-term investment decision.
Capital budgeting decision.
Long-term financing decision.
Earnings assessment.
Indicative Examination Questions (IEQs)
IEQ 1
One year ago, the exchange rate between the Bongoland’s shilling (BS) and the Northland dollar (N$) was BS
1900/N$. Since then the shilling has fallen 8 percent against the dollar. Price levels in Northland have gone up
marginally by one percent while in Bongoland prices have increased by 8 percent.
Required:
Indicative Examination Questions (IEQs)
IEQ 1
One year ago, the exchange rate between the Bongoland’s shilling (BS) and the Northland dollar (N$) was BS
International Parity Relationship and Exchange Rate Forecasting : 81
1900/N$. Since then the shilling has fallen 8 percent against the dollar. Price levels in Northland have gone up
marginally by one percent while in Bongoland prices have increased by 8 percent.
Required:
(a) Determine the current nominal exchange rate between the two currencies.
(b) Determine what should be the current nominal exchange rate based on the purchasing power parity and
assuming last year was “normal”.
(c) Compute and explain the percentage real term depreciation or appreciation of the Bongoland shilling relative
to the Northland dollar and explain any two possible causes.
IEQ 2
Currently, the spot exchange rate is TSHS.1500/$ and the three-month forward exchange rate is TSHS.1520/$.
The three-month interest rate is 8.0% per annum in Tanzania and 5.8% per annum in the USA. Assume that you
can borrow as much as TSHS.3,000,000 or $ 2,000.
Required:
(i) Determine whether the Interest Rate Parity (IRP) is currently holding.
(ii) Show how would you carry out covered interest arbitrage if the IRP is not holding. (Show all the steps and
determine the arbitrage profit).
(iii) Explain how the IRP will be restored as a result of covered arbitrage activities.
IEQ 3
(a) “Parity theories link exchange rate and other economic variables. Indeed, these variables influence the value
of the currency in question”.
Required:
Discuss four factors that cause nation’s currency to appreciate or depreciate.
(b) Kasri Ltd, a Tanzanian import-export firm, learned that a particular type of rice grown in Tanzania, commonly
known as “Super Rice” is also grown in Songaland. A ton of super rice is sold for Songaland Wan 50,000
while the same ton of rice is sold for TSHS 1,200,000 in Tanzania. Shipping costs (Dar es Salaam to
Songaland and vice versa) amount to US$ 90 per ton. Current exchange rates (mid-rates) among the three
currencies are as follows:
TSHS/US$
TSHS 1560/US$
TSHS/Wan
TSHS 52/Wan
Wan/US$
Wan 45/US$
The exchange rates are expected to be stable for the foreseeable future and the firm can import or export
100 tons of super rice at any given time.
Required:
(i) With supporting computations, show if the given information presents Kasri Ltd with arbitrage
opportunity.
(ii) If there is a commodity arbitrage opportunity, show how Kasri Ltd can exploit it and the profit that it will
make.
IEQ 4
(a)
Latang’amwaki is a well-known and successful currency speculator who relies on forecasting exchange
rates. Latang’amwaki has just seen the current spot exchange rate is TSHS.1550/$ and the six-month
forward rate is TSHS.1500/$. Based on his analysis and forecast of the exchange rate, he is pretty
confident that the spot exchange rate will be TSHS.1520/$ in six-months. Assume that he would like to
buy or sell $10,000,000.
Required:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
What actions should Latang’amwaki take to speculate in the forward market?
What is the expected TSHS profit from speculation if his forecast turns out to be accurate?
What would be his speculative profit in dollar terms if the spot exchange rate actually turns out to
be TSHS.1460/$.
(b) Briefly explain the main activities involved in fundamental forecasting of exchange rates.
(c) What are the major limitations of fundamental forecasting?
82
Global Business Environment
Answers to IEQs
Answers
IEQs
Answer totoIEQ
1
(a)
If thetoBS
has
Answer
IEQ
1 fallen by 8% then its value is now 92% of its value one year ago. This gives nominal exchange
rate of BS2065.22/N$ (i.e. 1900/0.92).
(a) If the BS has fallen by 8% then its value is now 92% of its value one year ago. This gives nominal exchange
rate of
BS2065.22/N$
1900/0.92).
(b) The
purchasing
power(i.e.
parity
effect posits that exchange rate move to equalize prices when there is inflation
1 
11 

f
d
(b) The
purchasing
parity effect
ratemove
to equalize prices when there is inflation
 exchange
1  e where
in the
respectivepower
economies.
Thusposits that
d and  f are domestic and foreign
 1  e where
in
therespectively.
respective economies.
areget
domestic
and foreign
inflation
d and  f we
rates
Substituting Thus
the above information
into theexpression
the expected
depreciation
to
1


f
be 6.93 percent and nominal rate as BS 2041.47/$.
rates respectively. Substituting the above information into the expression we get the expected depreciation to
bethe
6.93
percentrate
andhad
nominal
rate from
as BS1900
2041.47/$.
(c) If
nominal
changed
to 2031.68 there would not have been any real depreciation as
the purchasing power of the BS would have been maintained. However, since the nominal rate is BS 2065,
(c) 22/N$
If the nominal
rate
changed
from 1900
to 2031.68
there
would not have been any real depreciation as
then there
is had
a real
depreciation
of about
1.62% (i.e.
[2031.68/2065.22]-1).
the purchasing power of the BS would have been maintained. However, since the nominal rate is BS 2065,
22/N$ then
therereason
is a real
of about
1.62%
(i.e. [2031.68/2065.22]-1).
In general,
the main
fordepreciation
this depreciation
is that
exchange
rate is determined by other factors than relative
d
inflation rate. The other factors include:
In general, the main reason for this depreciation is that exchange rate is determined by other factors than relative
inflation rate.
other factors
 The
Decrease
in the include:
supply of the foreign currency (including due to low exports, etc).

Increase in demand for the foreign currency.

Decrease in the supply of the foreign currency (including due to low exports, etc).
in demand for the foreign currency.
Answer to IEQIncrease
2
Answer
to IEQ 2
Data given:
Spot Rate = TSHS 1500/$; FR 3months = TSHS 1520/$; 3 months interest rate;
Data given:
rTSHS = 2.0%; r$ = 1.45%
Spot Rate
= TSHS
1500/$; FR 3months
= TSHS 1520/$; 3 months interest rate;
Credit
= TSHS3,000,000
or $2,000
rTSHS
= 2.0%; r$ = 1.45%
(i)
(1
+ rTSHS)
= 1.02
Credit
= TSHS3,000,000
or $2,000(1520/1500)
(1
+ r$)(F/S)
= (1.0145)
(i)
(1 + rTSHS)
1.02
= 1.0280;
(1
+ r$)(F/S)
(1.0145)
(1520/1500)
Thus,
IRP is not holding =
exactly.
Hence
covered interest arbitrage exists.
= 1.0280;
Thus, IRPprofit
is notwill
holding
(ii)
Arbitrage
be: exactly. Hence covered interest arbitrage exists.
(ii)
ArbitrageBorrow
profit will
be:
(1)
TSHS3,000,000at
8% for 3 months repayment will be TSHS3,060,000.
(2)
Convert the TSHS3,000,000 at spot TSHS1500/$ [Buy $2,000 spot using TSHS3,000,000], you
(1)
Borrow$2,000.
TSHS3,000,000at 8% for 3 months repayment will be TSHS3,060,000.
obtain
(2)
Convert
the TSHS3,000,000
at spotrate
TSHS1500/$
spot
using value
TSHS3,000,000],
(3)
Invest $2,000
at the pound interest
of 5.8% p.a.[Buy
for 3$2,000
months
maturity
will be $2029.you
obtain
$2,000.
(4)
Sell
$2029
forward for TSHS1520/$ = TSHS3,084,080.
(3)
Invest $2,000
thebe
pound
interest rate
of 5.8% p.a. for
3 months maturity value will be $2029.
Arbitrage
profitatwill
TSHS24,080
[TSHS3,084,080
– 3,060,000]
(4)
Sell $2029
forward for TSHS1520/$ = TSHS3,084,080.
Arbitrage profit will be TSHS24,080 [TSHS3,084,080 – 3,060,000]
the arbitrage
Following
transactions
described above: The Tanzanian interest rate will rise; The US interest rate
will fall; the spot exchange rate will rise; the forward exchange rate will fall. These adjustments will continue until
Following
IRP
holds.the arbitrage transactions described above: The Tanzanian interest rate will rise; The US interest rate
will fall; the spot exchange rate will rise; the forward exchange rate will fall. These adjustments will continue until
IRP
holds.
Answer
to IEQ 3
;ĂͿAny
factors
AnswerFour
to IEQ
3 cause nation’s currency to appreciate or depreciate  Four
Difference
national
inflation
rates to
– appreciate
A Country’sorimport
and export
depend on the relative prices of
;ĂͿAny
factorsincause
nation’s
currency
depreciate









foreign produced and domestically produced goods. A rise in prices of domestically produced goods
Difference
in national
ratesabroad
– A Country’s
import and export
depend
on the relative prices of
(goods inflation)
that is inflation
not matched
leads to depreciation
of domestic
currency.
foreign
produced
and
domestically
produced
goods.
A
rise
in
prices
of
domestically
produced
goods
Changes in real interest rates – the real interest rate is the difference between the interest
rate
and
(goods inflation)
thatIf isa not
matched
abroad
leads
to depreciation
of domestic
currency.
expected
inflation.
country’s
real
interest
increases,
it will lead
to appreciation
of its currency. If it
Changes initreal
interest
– the real
rate is the difference between the interest rate and
decreases,
will lead
to a rates
depreciation
of itsinterest
currency.
expected inflation.
If a country’s
real interest
increases,
willattracted
lead to appreciation
of its currency.
it
Difference
in economic
performance
– Financial
flows itare
by higher expected
return. If
For
decreases,
it will search
lead to for
a depreciation
of its currency.
equity,
investors
high performance
of individual firms and of the economy as a whole. So good
Difference
economic
– Financial
attracted
by higher
return.
For
news
on theinprospect
forperformance
growth of a nation
shouldflows
attractare
more
international
equityexpected
capital, the
nation’s
equity,
investors
search for high performance of individual firms and of the economy as a whole. So good
currency
should appreciate.
news
on in
the
prospect forclimate
growth– of
a nation
should attract
more
international
equity
nation’s
Change
investments
such
as a political
system,
a rigorous
but fair
legalcapital,
system,the
protecting
currency
appreciate.A tax system that is fair to foreign investors, free movements of capital and
the
rightsshould
of all investors,
Change inauthorities
investments
suchstability.
as a political system, a rigorous but fair legal system, protecting
monetary
thatclimate
favour –price
the rights of policies,
all investors,
tax system
that
is fair
to foreign
free movements
of capitalof and
Government
that isA monetary
and
fiscal
policy
will alsoinvestors,
cause depreciation
or appreciation
the
monetarycurrency.
authorities that favour price stability.
nation’s
Government policies, that is monetary and fiscal policy will also cause depreciation or appreciation of the
nation’s currency.
International Parity Relationship and Exchange Rate Forecasting : 83
;ďͿ
<ĂƐƌŝ>ƚĚ
;ŝͿ Exchange rate implied by the LOP can be used to check on opportunities for commodity arbitrage. The
exchange rate implied by the LOP is: TSHS 1,200,000/Yuan50,000 = TSHS24/Yuan. This rate differs from
the actual rate of TSHS52/Yuan. Thus, opportunities for commodity arbitrage exist. ;ŝŝͿ The Yuan is overvalued. The product is therefore expensive in China and cheaper in Tanzania. To benefit
from the possible commodity arbitrage Kasri Ltd. Should take the following steps: Purchase 100 tons of super rice in Tanzania at TSHS1,200,000 per ton. Total purchase cost will be
TSHS1,200,000 x 100 = TSHS120M. Ship the 100 tons to Beijing at US$90 per ton costing in total
US$9,000. At TSHS1,560/US$ the shipping costs will amount to TSHS14,040,000. The 100 tons can be sold
for Yuan50,000 per ton realizing Yuan5,000,000. The Yuan5,000,000 will then be converted into TSHS at
TSHS52/Yuan to give TSHS260M. Thus, we have:
Sales Revenue………………………………………………………………. TSHS 260,000,000
Less: Purchase Cost……………………………………………………….(TSHS120,000,000)
Shipping Costs………………………………………………………(TSHS 14, 040,000)
Net Profit…………………………….........…………………….……TSHS 125,960,000
Answer to IEQ 4
(a) Actions expected profit by the speculator
(i)
Action: If Latang’amaki believe the sport exchange rate will be TSHS 1520$ in six months,
he should buy $ 10, 000,000 forward for ZS 1500$.
(ii) The expected profit will be TSHS 200,000,000/=. That is $ 10,000,000 x (TSHS1520– TSHS 1500).
(iii) If the spot exchange rate turns out to be TSHS 1460/$ in three months, Latang’amwaki will
get a loss amounting to TSHS 400,000,000/= that is $ 10,000,000 x (TSHS 1460 – TSHS
1500).
(b) Activities involved in Fundamental forecasting of exchange rates
Fundamental forecasting is based on fundamental relationship between economic variables and
exchange rates. Given current values of these variables along with their historical impact on a currency’s
value, dealers or other participants in FOREX markets can develop exchange rate projections using
some models. The main activities are:




To select Exchange Rate Forecasting Model
To identify the fundamental factors that determine exchange rates;
To predict the future values of these factors to be used in forecasting the exchanges rates.
To forecast exchange rate using the selected model.
(c) Limitations of fundamental forecasting are as follows:




Forecasts needed for factors with instantaneous impact might be difficult to obtain;
Uncertain timing of impact of these factors on future exchange rates;
Omission of other relevant factors from model used in forecasting.
Change in sensitivity of currency movements to each factor overtime.
84
Global Business Environment
SECTION B
178 : Business Strategy
B1
International Investment Appraisal
© GTG : 85
INTERNATIONAL
INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
ASSIGNMENTS
STUDY GUIDE B1: INTERNATIONAL
INVESTMENT APPRAISAL
Investment decision is one of the key decisions in financial management. Funds acquired from financing decisions
should be allocated in assets which generate returns greater than the cost of acquired funds. As introduced in the
earlier course, Investment appraisal entails techniques used to select investment projects which attain the central
objective of the firm in finance i.e. maximization of long-term shareholders wealth. The earlier discussion was
however focused on domestic perspective.
With the growing rate of globalization and internationalization of markets, both investors and financial advisors
need to be in a position of evaluating projects located in different countries. On the other hand, foreign investment
appraisal involves complexities such as forecasting future exchange rates, double taxation, intercompany flows as
well as remittance restrictions. The understanding of international investment appraisal at this end is of great
importance as it will enable professionals to be in the position of making informed foreign investment decisions.
This guide aims at exposing a student on evaluating potential international investment decisions and assessing
their financial and strategic consequences as well as adjusting present values.
a) Evaluate potential international investment decisions and assessing their financial and strategic
consequences internationally by analysing alternative international investment appraisal techniques.
b) Evaluate impact of financing on international investment decisions and adjusted present values by
analysing:
i.
The impact of alternative project financing sources on international project economic viability.
ii.
The impact of political and foreign exchange risk on international investment decisions
1.
Evaluate potential international investment decisions and assessing their financial and strategic
consequences internationally by analysing alternative international investment appraisal
techniques.
[Learning outcome 1]
Investment appraisal is a process of identifying, analysing and selecting investment projects whose returns (cash
flow) are expected to lengthen further than one year. Foreign investment appraisal is also called capital budgeting.
Objectives of capital budgeting are to determine whether a proposed capital investment will be a profitable one
over the specified time period and to select between investment alternatives.
Investment appraisal for international firm’s uses the same framework as the domestic capital budgeting.
Examples of a foreign investment decision range from purchase of new equipment to replace existing equipment,
to an investment in an entirely new business venture in a country where, typically, manufacturing or assembly has
not previously been done. The activities involved in international capital budgeting is similar to those in domestic
capital budgeting except the fact that foreign investment appraisal involves the following complexities.


Foreign Exchange Risks - cash flow from a foreign project are in foreign currency and therefore subject to
exchange risk from the parent’s point of view.
Foreign exchange risk is that the currency will depreciate or appreciate over the period of time
Investment appraisal for international firm’s uses the same framework as the domestic capital budgeting.
Examples of a foreign investment decision range from purchase of new equipment to replace existing equipment,
to an investment in an entirely new business venture in a country where, typically, manufacturing or assembly has
86
International
not previously
beenInvestment
done. TheAnalysis
activities involved in international capital budgeting is similar to those in domestic
capital budgeting except the fact that foreign investment appraisal involves the following complexities.
Foreign Exchange Risks - cash flow from a foreign project are in foreign currency and therefore subject to
exchange risk from the parent’s point of view.
179 Foreign
: Businessexchange
Strategy risk is that the currency will depreciate or appreciate over the period of time
© GTG
 International financing arrangement of capital and related to cost of capital,
 Remittance restrictions- where there are restrictions on the repatriation of income, substantial differences
exist between projects cash flow and cash flows received by the parent firm. Only cash flows that are
remittable to the parent company are relevant from the firm’s perspective
 International Taxation -both in domestic and international capital budgeting, only after-tax cash flows are
relevant for project evaluation. However, in international capital budgeting tax issue is complicated by
existence of two taxing jurisdictions plus a number of other factors including form of remittance to the parent
firm, tax withholding provision in the host country
 Political or Country Risk - assets located abroad are subject to the risk of appropriation or nationalization by
the host government, also there are may be changes in applicable withholding taxes, restrictions on
remittances by the subsidiary to the parent

Due to these complexities, some difficulties in international capital budgeting arises. These difficulties include:
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii.
ix.
x.
Parent cash flows are different form project cash flows.
All cash flows from the foreign projects must be converted into the currency of the parent firm.
Profits remitted to the parent are subject to two taxing jurisdictions i.e. the parent country and the host
country.
Anticipate the differences in the rate of national inflation as they can result in changes in competitive
position and thus in cash flows over a period of time
The possibility of foreign exchange risk and its effect on the parent’s cash flow.
If the host country provides some concessionary financing arrangements and/or other benefits, the
profitability of the foreign project may go up.
Initial investment in the host country may benefit from a partial or total release of blocked funds.
The host country may impose restrictions on the distribution of cash flows generated form the foreign
projects.
Political risk must be evaluated thoroughly as changes in political events can drastically reduce the
availability of cash flows.
It is more difficult to estimate the terminal value in the multinational capital budgeting because potential
buyers in the host or parent company may have widely different views on the value to them of acquiring
the project.
Lake Manyara Ltd is a Company based in Tanzania and having its offices in Arusha. The firm is thinking of
establishing a branch in South Africa or Mbeya. The CEO of Lake Manyara company is well informed about
difficulties when appraising domestic projects but he is unsure of difficulties involved in international capital
budgeting. In this light, you are required to explain the complexities to the CEO.
Alternative international investment appraisal techniques
In international capital budgeting two approaches are commonly applied:
1. Discounted cash flow analysis (DCF)
2. The adjusted present value approach
Approach 1: The Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
DCF technique involves the use of the time value of money principle to project evaluation. The two most widely
used criteria of the DCF technique are the
 The net present value (NPV)
 The internal rate of return (IRR)
International Investment Appraisal
© GTG : 87
180 : Business Strategy
ĞŶƚƌĂůŝnjĞĚ
ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ
EĞƚƉƌĞƐĞŶƚ
ǀĂůƵĞ;EWsͿ
ŝƐĐŽƵŶƚĞĚĐĂƐŚ
ĨůŽǁĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ
/ŶƚĞƌŶĂƚŝŽŶĂů
ŝŶǀĞƐƚŵĞŶƚĂƉƉƌĂŝƐĂů
ƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƐ
ĞĐĞŶƚƌĂůŝƐĞ
ĚĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ
/ŶƚĞƌŶĂůƌĂƚĞ
ŽĨƌĞƚƵƌŶ
;/ZZͿ
ĚũƵƐƚĞĚWƌĞƐĞŶƚ
sĂůƵĞƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ
The net present value (NPV)
In domestic capital budgeting there is no need of converting currencies since the project is within the home
country, but for international capital budgeting there is need of converting currencies from foreign to home
currency especially during repatriation of the profits at the end of the project.
The evaluation of the international capital budgeting projects should take this issue into consideration; two
techniques have been designed on how and when the currency should be converted. These techniques are:


Centralized capital budgeting technique
Decentralized capital budgeting technique
A.
Centralized international capital budgeting technique
Under a centralized international capital budgeting, a project is evaluated from the domestic country point of view.
Domestic country in this context means the home country in which head office operates and centralization takes
place in that office. With a centralized approach, cash flows to be discounted should be denominated in domestic
currency i.e. there is a need to convert the currency prior discounting them. A simple way is that the cash flow
should follow the currency of the cost of capital. With centralized capital budgeting technique, forecast the cash
flows in foreign currency first, then convert these cash flows into domestic currency using the relevant forward
exchange rates and finally discount the cash flows in domestic currency and the discount rate appropriate for
domestic projects.
A strong theoretical argument exists in favour of analysing any foreign project from the view point of the parent.
Cash flows to the parent are ultimately the basis for dividends to stakeholders, reinvestment elsewhere in the
world, repayment of corporate-wide debt, and other purposes that affect the firm’s many interest groups.
If Exim bank has its head office in South Africa and all operations takes place in South Africa, South Africa will
then be a domestic country for capital budgeting purposes.
The technique involves the following steps
1. Estimate the relevant cash flow of the project in local currency(foreign currency) terms
2. Forecast the exchange rate over the project life, parity relationship are used, specifically International Fisher
Effect.
88
International Investment Analysis
181 : Business Strategy
© GTG
In this case home and foreign country will be determined by forecaster’s point of view, or in other words use
exchange rate quotation.
3. Convert the local currency denominated cash flow into domestic currency values using the forecast exchange
rate (relevant forward rates)
4. Decide on appropriate discount rate or required rate of return between domestic cost of capital and domestic
cost of the project, both calculated from the domestic country point of view.
The domestic cost of project can be calculated by using CAPM or any other relevant technique covered under
cost of capital especially when the project is perpetual.
5. Discount the cash flows to the present values using the selected discount rate
6. Calculate the NPV in domestic currency terms , then make decision if NPV is greater or equal to zero accept
the project otherwise reject
Note: Centralized means domestic appraisal so in discounting cash flows the domestic cost of capital or
domestic cost of project should be used. When both are given in the question the domestic cost of project should
be preferred
The Management of I Kid`s International Co., Tanzania based firm is reviewing the Company’s capital investment
options for the coming year and is considering investing in Malawi. The investment would involve a current outlay
of MKW 8,800,000,000 on capital equipment and MKW 2,000,000,000 on working capital. The corporate tax rate
in Tanzania is 30% and that of Malawi is 40%, no withholding tax for amount repatriated from Malawi to Tanzania.
The project is expected to last for three years 20X6- 20X8; and all in investments including the working capital
requirements will be incurred and paid for in December, 20X5. The revenues and cost for the projects are as
provided in the table below [Figures in “000” Malawi kwacha].
Year
2013
2014
2015
Revenue
47,500,000
49,000,000
34,200,000
Variable Costs
15,000,000
16,000,000
12,800,000
Fixed Costs
11,000,000
11,000,000
11,000,000
Fixed costs include an annual charge of MKW 6,000,000,000 for depreciation. At the end of the year 3 the working
capital investment would be recovered and the net realizable value of the equipment MKW 9,000,000,000. Annual
inflation rate in Tanzania is 6% while in the Malawi inflation is running at 7%. The current spot rate is
MKW20/TSHS. The company requires a 10% return on any foreign investment. Required: Appraise and comment
on the viability of the project using the NPV method.
Suggested Solution:
Given:
Initial costs:
Capital equipment MKW 8,800,000,000
Working capital requirement MKW 2,000,000,000
Spot rate: MKW 20/TSHS
TSHS Inflation rate = 6% = 0.06; MKW inflation rate= 7% = 0.07
Recall: The Purchasing Power Party (PPP)
= MKW/TSHS 20.20
International Investment Appraisal : 89
182 : Business Strategy
© GTG
 1.07 


ℓ20X7 = 20.20  1.06 
1
= MKW/TSHS 20.40
 1.07 


ℓ20X8 = 20.40  1.06 
1
= MKW/TSHS 20.40
IKid`s international Company
Malawi Project Appraisal
Net Present Value methods (MKW 000,000)
Initial Costs
20X5
20X6
20X7
20X8
Capital equipment
(8,800)
-
-
-
Working capital
(2,000)
-
-
-
Revenue
-
47,500
49,000
34,200
Variable costs
-
(15,000)
(16,000)
(12,800)
Contribution margin
-
32,500
33,000
21,400
Fixed costs
-
(11,000)
(11,000)
Profit before tax
-
21,500
22,000
Tax (40%)
Profit after tax
Add back: Dep.
Net cash flows in WKW
(11,000)
10,400
-
(8,600)
(8,800)
(10,800)
12,900
13,200
6,240
(4,160)
-
6,000
6,000
6,000
12,240
(10,800)
18,900
19,200
Salvage value
-
-
-
9000
Recovery of Working capital
-
-
-
2000
(10,800)
Cash for remittance
Exchange rate
Remittance in TSHS
Tax (30%)
18,900
19,200
20
20
20
23,240
(540)
936
941
1,128
20.6
-
(281)
(282)
(338)
Net remittance in TSHS
(540)
655
659
790
Discount rate (10%) DF
PV
1
(540)
1
595
1
544
0.7513
593
 PVs of EFCs  Io.
NPV
=
NPV
= TSHS (595 + 544 + 593.) - 540
= TSHS 1733 – 540
= TSHS 1,193 x 1,000,000
= TSHS. 1,193,000,000
Comment: Since the project has positive NPV the project is financially valuable and should be established.
B. Decentralized international capital budgeting technique
Project is evaluated from the host country’s point of view and NPV initially is calculated in the currency of the host
country. Evaluation of a project from the local viewpoint serves some useful purposes, but it should be
subordinated to evaluation from parent’s viewpoint. Almost any project should at least be able to earn a cash
return equal to the yield available on the host government bond with similar maturity to the project, if a free market
exists for that bond. With decentralized capital budgeting technique, a project analyst should forecast the cash
flows in foreign (local) currency, discount these cash flows at the discount rate appropriate for the foreign market to
get an NPV in terms of foreign currency and convert the NPV in foreign currency into domestic values at the spot
exchange rate.
Decentralized international capital budgeting technique involves the following steps:
1.
Estimate the relevant cash flows in local currency (foreign currency) terms
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2.
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Decide on appropriate discount rate or required rate of return between foreign cost of capital and foreign cost
of projects both calculated from the foreign point of view
The foreign cost of capital can be deduced from the domestic cost of capital as follows:
Where:
rf
rh
is the nominal interest rate (risk free rate) of the foreign country
is the nominal interest rate (risk free rate) of the domestic country
In this case home and foreign country/currency will be determined by the investors point of view, this means
that the investor’s home will be home currency and the where he/she invest will be foreign country
3.
4.
5.
6.
Discount the cash flow using the selected discount rate
Calculate NPV in local currency terms
Convert the NPV to domestic currency value using the current spot exchange rate
Make decision if NPV is greater than zero or zero accept the project otherwise reject
Note:



Decentralized means foreign appraisal so in discounting cash flows the foreign cost of capital or
foreign cost of project should be used
When both are given in the question the foreign cost of project should be preferred
Decentralized means, before discounting cash flow they should be in foreign currency, simple way is
that the cash flow should follow the currency of the cost of capital, since the cash flows are already in
foreign currency thus there is no need to convert cash flow
Recall: Nominal cash flows should be discounted by using nominal discount rate and real cash flows should be
discounted by real discount rate most MNCs tend to evaluate projects from both the parent and project view point.
The parent’s viewpoint gives results closer to the traditional meaning of net present value in capital budgeting.
Project valuation provides a closer approximation of the effect on consolidated earnings per share, which is a
major concern to practicing managers. However, the truth is the CFS from the two perspectives may differ because
the \net after tax cash flows to the subsidiary may differ substantially with that to the parent.
A US firm is considering an investment in Tanzania, which will cost Tshs 200million and is expected to produce an
income of Tshs 30million in real terms in each of the next seven year. The firm estimate that the appropriate cost
of capital or the project in the US is 8%. Nominal interest rates are 9% in Tanzania and 7% in the US, the spot
exchange rate is Tshs 1354.50 per USD. At the end of the seventh year the US Firm expects to sell the Tanzanian
investment to a local firm for Tshs 50million.
Required
Evaluate and comment on the economic viability of the proposed project. Use Decentralized capital budgeting.
Solution
Computation of foreign (TZ) CoC:
The foreign cost of capital can be deduced from the domestic cost of capital as follows:
= 10.01%
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Details
Y0
Initial cost
Y1
Discount factors at 10.01%
Present value
NPV
Y6
Y7
-200
Intermediate CFs
Disposal of investment/
Terminal CFs
Cashflows
Y2
All figures in TSHS “000,000”
Y3
Y4
Y5
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
50
-200
1
-200
-28.35
30
0.9090
27.270
30
0.8263
24.789
30
0.7511
22.533
30
0.6828
30
0.6206
20.483
18.619
30
0.5642
16.925
80
0.5128
41.026
Basing on monetary grounds alone, the project is not feasible because NPV is negative.
Multidrop Inc. is a Kenyan based company. The company is contemplating a foreign direct investment in Arusha,
Tanzania. The investment is estimated to cost a total of KES 400,000,000; Divided as for non-current assets KES
350,000,000 and working capital requirements of KES 50,000,000.
The project is expected to last for four years, and all initial investment costs will be incurred and paid for, in the
year 2013. The investment is expected to produce the following after tax cash flows in real terms:
YEAR
2014
2015
2016
2017
Net Cash inflows in Real terms
TSHS
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
11,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
The firm estimates that the appropriate (nominal) cost of capital for the project is 8%. Annual interest rates are 9%
in Tanzania, 7% in Kenya. The spot exchange rate is TSHS.18.50/KES. And inflation in Tanzania is expected to
average 10% per year for the next four years.
At the end of the fourth year, the Multidrop Inc. expects to sell the Tanzanian investments to local firm for
TSHS.10,000,000,000. The corporate tax rate in Tanzania is 30% and 35% in Kenya. However, the Kenyan
government does not charge tax on the remittance from Tanzania, nor does Tanzania charge repatriation tax for
transfers to Kenya.
Required:
Evaluate and comment on the economic viability of the proposed project.
The internal rate of return (IRR)
Principle of IRR remains the same in international capital budgeting only that care should be taken in computing
NPV as explained in the preceding section. Recall that IRR is the rate that equates NPV to zero. This study guide
has therefore focused more on NPV.
Approach two: adjusted present value method (APV)
The APV format allows different components of the project’s cash flow to be discounted separately. This allows the
required flexibility, to be accommodated in the analysis of the foreign project. The method uses different discount
rates for different segments of the total cash flow depending upon the degree of certainty attached with each cash
flow. In addition, the APV format helps the analyst to test the basic viability of the foreign project before accounting
for all the complexities. The APV framework is a useful technique because international projects frequently have
cash flows not encountered in domestic projects, the APV technique easily allows the analyst to add terms to the
model that represent the special cash flows.
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The APV model is a value additive approach to capital budgeting. The cash flows are logically discounted at
different rates, a function of their different risk. Operating cash flows are viewed as being more risky. They are
therefore discounted at the cost of equity. The adjusted present value of a project is given by:
APV = ∑OCFt/(1+k*)t + ∑kdDTc/(1+kd)t - Initial Cash Investment
Where:
OCFt = The after-tax operating cash flows in period t
k*= The required rate of return in the absence of leverage (all equity financing)
D = Value of debt financing sustainable by the project
kd = Cost of Debt Financing
2. Evaluate impact of financing on international investment decisions and adjusted present values by
analysing:
i.
The impact of alternative project financing sources on international project economic viability.
[Learning outcome b.i]
In multinational investment projects, the type of financing package is often critical in making otherwise unattractive
projects attractive to the parent company. Thus, cash may flow back to the parent because the project is structured
to generate such flows via royalties, licensing fees, dividends, and so on. Unlike in domestic capital budgeting,
operating cash flows cannot be kept separate from financing decisions.
Implications of source of financing on foreign investment appraisal




If an MNC is financed from expensive sources, then a number of attractive investment decreases as it
becomes difficult to find an investment that brings returns greater than the cost of acquired funds.
If a project has been financed through loan from domestic country, a lender (foreign country or country of
investment) should ideally be paid solely or almost exclusively out of the money generated from foreign
project. This brings about the issues of transfer price, income repatriation
On the other hand, financing a foreign project though a foreign loan may bring about simplicity in repayment of
interests and administering the loan
An MNC has an advantage of raising funds from both domestic and foreign capital markets.
Be it that funds are sourced domestically of from foreign sources, shareholders wealth has to be maximised.
Managers should therefore adopt the most convenient and cheaper option of raising funds. Raising funds from
expensive sources will cause WACC to increase and hence a decrease in the value of the firm.
3. Evaluate impact of financing on international investment decisions and adjusted present values by
analysing:
ii. The impact of political and foreign exchange risk on international investment decisions
[Learning outcome b.i]
Political Risk Must Be Considered. The host government may change its attitude towards foreign influence or
control over some segments of the local economy. This may be through sudden revolution, or it may result from a
gradual evolution in the political objectives of the host government. Political risk is also important in determining
the terminal value, because politics may impose a specific ending date which negates use of an infinite horizon for
valuation purposes. If a specific ending date is mandated, the value received on that date may be extremely
difficult to anticipate. In the context of premiums for political risk, diversification among countries may create a
portfolio effect such that no single country need bear the higher return that would otherwise be imposed if that
country were the only location of a foreign investment.
Political risk: This is another factor that can significantly impact the viability and profitability of foreign projects.
Whether it be through democratic elections or as a result of sudden developments such as revolutions or military
coups, changes in a country's government can affect the attitude in that country towards foreign investors and
investments. This can affect the future cash flows of a project in that country in a variety of ways. Political
developments may also affect the life and the terminal value of foreign investments.
Political risks should be incorporated into foreign investment analysis by adjusting the expected cash flows of a
project, rather than its required rate of return. Establishing certainty equivalents of the expected cash flows of that
particular project can do this.
An important thing to notice is that there is an important source of risk (exchange rate risk) that isn’t incorporated
firm’s local cost of capital.
International Investment Appraisal : 93
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Answers to test yourself
Answer to TY 1










Parent cash flows are different form project cash flows.
All cash flows from the foreign projects must be converted into the currency of the parent firm.
Profits remitted to the parent are subject to two taxing jurisdictions i.e. the parent country and the host country.
Anticipate the differences in the rate of national inflation as they can result in changes in competitive position
and thus in cash flows over a period of time.
The possibility of foreign exchange risk and its effect on the parent’s cash flow.
If the host country provides some concessionary financing arrangements and/or other benefits, the profitability
of the foreign project may go up.
Initial investment in the host country may benefit from a partial or total release of blocked funds.
The host country may impose restrictions on the distribution of cash flows generated form the foreign projects.
Political risk must be evaluated thoroughly as changes in political events can drastically reduce the availability
of cash flows.
It is more difficult to estimate the terminal value in the multinational capital budgeting because potential buyers
in the host or parent company may have widely different views on the value to them of acquiring the project.
Answer to TY 2
Given data:




Discount rate = 8% = 0.08
Annual inflation rate 10% per annum
Interest rate in Tanzania (Rtz) = 9% = 0.09
Interest rate in Kenya (Rke) = 7% = 0.07
Working 1: Nominal cash flows in TSHS:

Normal cash flows = Real cash flows * (1+ inflation) t
Year
Real cash flows
Inflation factors [10%]
Nominal cash flows
2014
2015
2016
2017
6,000,000,000.00
8,000,000,000.00
11,000,000,000.00
10,000,000,000.00
1.1
1.21
1.331
1.4641
6,600,000,000.00
9,080,000,000.00
14,641,000,000.00
14,641,000,000.00
Working 2: Exchange rate forecasting:
 Spot rate TSHS/KES 18.5
 Recall the International Fisher Effect
 Et=E0(1+Rtz/1+rKE)t
 E. rate year 2014
= TSHS 18.5(1.09/07)
= TSHS/KES 18.85
 E. rate year 2015
= TSHS 18.85(1.09/1.07)
= TSHS/KES 19.20
 E. rate year 2016
= TSHS 19.20(1.09/1.07)
= TSHS/KES 19.56
 E rate year 2017
= TSHS 19.56(1.09/1.07)
= TSHS/KES 19.92
Multidrop Inc. company
Tanzania project appraisal, NPV method
YEAR
2,013
2,014
2,015
2,016
2,017
6,600,000,000
9,680,000,000
14,641,000,000
14,641,000,000
Initial costs:
Non- current assets
Working capital
Net cash flows in TSHS
Liquidation value
(6,475,000,000)
(925,000,000)
10,000,000,000
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Networking capital
NET CASH FLOW in
TSHS
Exchange rate
925,000,000
(7,400,000,000)
19
6,600,000,000
19
9,680,000,000
19
14,641,000,000
20
25,566,000,000
20
Net cash flows
remittance in KES
Discount Factors (8%)
(400,000,000)
350,132,626
504,166,667
748,517,382
1,283,433,735
1.000
0.926
0.857
0.794
0.735
PRESENT VALUES IN
KES
(400,000,000)
324,222,812
432,070,833
594,322,802
943,523,795
NPV (KES) = ∑ Present values – Initial Costs
NPV(KES) = [2,293,940,242.00 +432,070,833+594,322,802+942,850,477]-KES400,000,000
NPV= KES [1,893,940,842.00-400,000,000]
NPV=KES 1,893,466,923.31
Comment: Since the NPV is positive, then Tanzania project is economically viable, Multidrop should establish the
project.
Indicative Examination Questions (IEQs)
IEQ 1
Excurb Co. is a Japanese based manufacturer of TV sets. The firm is reviewing the Company’s capital investment
options for the coming year and is considering investing in Tanzania. The company wishes to set up a
manufacturing subsidiary in Tanzania. The Tanzanian subsidiary would undertake the construction of a new
factory in Arusha. The initial project cash investment is estimated at Japanese Yen 100,000,000. Of the total
amount, Yen 50,000,000 will be used to finance the acquisition of fixed assets and the remaining amount will be
used to meet working capital needs.
The project duration is four years. The expected net operating income and depreciation expense over the four-year
period is as given below:
End of Year
Net operating income (TSHS million)
Depreciation expense
1
300
50
2
500
50
3
200
50
4
300
50
Depreciation is a tax allowable expense. The sport exchange rate is TSHS10/¥ and an annual appreciation of 5%
of the Japanese Yen against the TSHS is predicted over the next four years. Corporate tax rates are 40% and
50% in Tanzania and Japan respectively. Tanzania imposes a withholding tax of 10% on earnings remitted by
subsidiaries of foreign companies. The after-tax realizable value of the investment in four years’ time is expected
to be approximately TSHS 200 million.
Required:
Evaluate whether Excurb Co. should establish the Tanzanian Subsidiary if the company requires a 14% return on
any foreign investment.
Answer to IEQ 1
Excurb Co. Tanzania Investment Appraisal
Details
Initial cash investment (TSHS m)
Fixed assets
Working capital requirement
Net operating Income
Taxes (at 40%)
Net Income
Add back: depreciation
After tax net operating cash flows
0
1
2
3
4
(500)
(500)
-
300
200
180
50
230
500
(120)
300
50
350
200
(80)
120
50
170
300
(120)
180
50
230
International Investment Appraisal : 95
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Withholding Tax (10%)
Remittances
Recovery of NWC
After tax realizable value
After tax net cash flows
Expected future spot rate [TSHS/¥]
After tax net cash flows (¥m)
Discounting factor (at 14%)
Present value (¥m)
© GTG
(1000)
10
(23)
207
207
10.50
(35)
315
315
11.02
(17)
153
153
11.60
(23)
207
500
200
907
12.15
(100)
1
(100)
19.7
0.88
17.3
28.6
0.77
22.0
13.2
0.67
8.8
74.65
0.59
44.0
NPV = ¥m [17.3 + 22.0 +8.8 + 44.0] - ¥ 100m = ¥ - 7.9m
Comment: the project has a negative NPV. It is therefore not economically viable. It should be rejected. Excurb Co.
should not establish the Tanzania subsidiary.
Workings: Forecasting exchange rates
Exchange Rate Year t = current Sport Rate (1.05)
Year 1: TSHS 10 (1.05) = TSHS 10.50
Year 2: TSHS 10 (1.05)2 = TSHS 11.02
Year 3: TSHS 10 (1.05)3 = TSHS 11.60
Year 4: TSHS 10 (1.05)4 = TSHS 12.15
t
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B2
InInternational Portfolio Theory and the International Capital Asset Pricing©Model:
GTG 97
INTERNATIONAL
INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
ASSIGNMENTS
STUDY GUIDE B2: THE INTERNATIONAL
PORTFOLIO THEORY AND THE CAPITAL ASSET
PRICING MODEL
It is understood from an old adage that it is not sensible to put all eggs in the same basket. Similarly, the
multinational firms should advisedly allocate and invest the financial resources at their disposal in different
countries to minimise not only country specific risk but also particular country’s market risk, which remains undiversifiable with domestic diversification. This is viably possible because the macro- economic factors do not
generally move in the same direction at the same time in all countries. Holding investments in various countries
would then be beneficial such that bad news from one country could be compensated with good news from the
other. Additionally, the international investment offers a much broader range of opportunities than domestic
investment alone. It is worth noting; however, that the international diversification of projects and investments is
being made possible by globalisation, shrinkage of economic space and sophistication of capital markets. The
international stock and bond diversification can therefore provide substantially higher returns with less risk than
investment in a global market.
International diversification is not cost or risk free. As such the investments of assets in different countries and
holding of such investments in different foreign currencies render the Multinational Corporations (MNCs) and other
firms operating internationally with peculiar risks such as different levels of inflation ( arising from different price
levels across countries), currency risks (due to changes in exchange rates) and political risks (changes in legal,
institutional and political conditions) which can to a great extent affect the prices and returns of international
diversified assets. It follows that, in order for these companies to benefit from such global investment they should
continually monitor them and apply appropriate techniques to minimize the effects of exchange rate volatility,
political risks and increased agency costs. It is through robust risk management systems that the multinational
corporations can maximize returns from internationally diversified investments at a given level of risks, which is the
objective of any corporate house.
In this study guide chapter learners will appreciate the rationale for international diversification and the role of
market segmentation and market integration in the realisation of benefits associated with international
diversifications. The chapter further, intends to acquaint the learners with skills on how to measure the returns and
risks of internationally diversified assets, and how to design efficient combination of international assets. The
assessment and the determination of returns of foreign securities, bonds and shares will also be discussed,
explored and evaluated. More importantly, the International Assets Pricing Model (ICAPM) will be assessed in light
of the standard Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) and the factors which make international investments or
investments in foreign countries unique unveiled.
(a) Assess and measure risk and return associated with international portfolio investments.
(b) Assess and measure returns associated with investing in securities issued in different markets and
denominated in various currencies.
(c) Evaluate the International Capital Assets Pricing Model (ICAPM) and its application in evaluating
internationally allocated investments.
(d) Discuss capital market integration and segmentation and evaluate barriers to international diversification.
98190 :International
Investment Analysis
Business Strategy
© GTG
1. Assess and measure risks and returns associated with internationally diversified portfolio
[Learning outcome a]
International diversification is referred as to holding investments of securities or assets in more than one country
with a view of minimising risks for targeted return level or maximising return for a given level of risk. This is an
attempt to reduce risk by investing assets – locating projects in various nations of the world and especially those
whose economic cycles are not perfectly correlated. The international diversification can be considered a viable
strategy for risk reduction because correlation coefficients across markets (countries) are reasonably low. As such
it naturally accepted that the economic, political, institutional and even psychological factors affecting securities’
(assets’) returns tend to vary a great deal across countries which in turn results in relatively low correlations among
international assets. More importantly the broader the diversification the more stable the returns and the more
diffuse the risks are expected to be.
The efficiency and effectiveness of international diversification as risk reduction strategy is influenced and depends
on the three main factors. These factors are (i) intercountry correlations – whereby a reasonably low correlation
across markets is expected to be better off in realising benefits of international diversification (ii) The variance
(risk) of returns for each country’s assets (securities), and (iii) The expected return in each individual country.
Highly asynchronous countries could contribute to low international correlations and hence benefits of international
diversification. It follows that, closely related countries in terms of economic, legal and political settings cannot
bring about benefits from assets diversified in those countries. This is because the factors would influence the
returns of such assets in the similar way – due to positive relationships coefficients.
In general, the international correlation structure strongly suggests that international diversification can sharply
reduce risk (Solnik, 1974). While a fully diversified domestic portfolio is as risky as a typical individual stock, a fully
diversified international portfolio is relatively less risky than typical individual stock. This implies that when fully
diversified an international portfolio can be less than half as risky as a purely domestic portfolio. This is however,
dependent on the correlation coefficients of returns of assets allocated in different countries. The low correlations
would suggest ability of the international portfolio to reduce risks.
Discuss the determinants of effectiveness and efficiency of international diversification as a risk reduction strategy.
Expected return and risk of internationally diversified portfolio
International portfolio is comprised of assets allocated in different countries. The returns and risks from
internationally diversified assets are generally measured in similar manner as those of domestic portfolio except
that the consideration is on the securities invested in different nations. To arrive at an expected return of
international portfolio one should consider the risks and returns in each market and the weights of investment in
each of those markets. In a simplified manner, consider a world portfolio consisting two assets a fraction of which W d is invested in domestic country’s stocks and the remaining fraction - W f) invested in foreign stocks. Further, E
(Rd) and E (Rf) is defined as returns on the domestic country and foreign country’s stock respectively. The
expected return of international portfolio E (RP) can be calculated as:
E (RP) = W dE (Rd) + W fE (Rf)
Similarly, the standard deviation of international portfolio (σp), can be derived from the general formula for the
standard deviation of a two-asset portfolio with weights w1 and w2 (w1 + w2 = 1). This is given as portfolio standard
deviation (σp) = [w12Ó12 + w22Ó22 + 2w1w2r12Ó1Ó2]1/2.
Where; Ó12 and Ó22 are the respective variances of the two assets, Ó 1 and Ó2 are their standard deviations and r12
is their correlation.
To measure the risk of internationally diversified portfolio, the same formula can be applied by treating the
domestic and foreign portfolio as separate assets. This yields an international portfolio standard deviation Óp
equal to:
σp
=
[wd2Ódf + wf2Ó22 + 2wdwfrdfÓdÓf]1/2
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Where, Ód and Óf are variance for domestic and foreign assets respectively; r df is their correlation; and W d and wf is
weights of the investment in domestic and foreign country respectively.
Kilimanjaro Inc. Limited is a multinational company that has investments in five different developing countries. One
of the objectives of the Company is to reduce risk through international diversifications. The Company however
believes that the return on any investment from investment in five countries is not correlated with the return on any
other investment. The details of investment such as the estimated risk and return and the value in of each of the
five investments are shown below.
Country
Rwanda (Rw)
Namibia (Nam)
Kenya ( Ke)
Tanzania(Tz)
Lesotho ( Les)
Value of investments
25%
20%
20%
25%
10%
Standard Deviation (% )
8
10
7
4
16
Return (%)
14
16
12
9
22
Required: estimate the risk and return of the portfolio of the five investments, and briefly explain the
significance of your results.
Solution


The Portfolio return – can be determined as the weighted average returns from the five investments.
It is given that:
Return from Rwanda (RRw) = 14%;
Return from Namibia (RNam) = 16%;
Return from Kenyan (RKe) = 12%;
Return from Tanzania (RTz) = 9%, and
Return from Lesotho (RLes) = 22%
The expected return of the international portfolio will be given as (Ṝp) =
= [(0.25 *14%) + (0.20*16%) + (0.20* 12% + (0.25* 9%) + (0.10* 22%)]
= 13.55%.
Estimation of the portfolio risk (σp)
Given the weights of investment in each of the five countries, and the fact that the correlation coefficient of the
portfolio equals to 0 (The returns from the five countries is not correlated). The risk of international portfolio can be
estimated as follows:
= √[0.25² σ²rw + 0.2²σ²nam + 0.2²σ²ke + 0.25²σ²Tz +0.1²σ²les]
= √ [0.25²8² + 0.2²10² + 0.2²7² + 0.25²4² +0.1²16²]
= 3.7%
Significance of the results: With a portfolio of only five investments the benefit or diversification have reduced
portfolio risk, measured by the standard deviation of expected returns, to approximately that of the lowest risk
individual investment. This portfolio risk reduction is quite large because of the lack of correlation between the
investments. The further away the correlation coefficient is from +1, the greater the risk reduction through
diversification.
(a)
(b)
Briefly discuss the factors that determine the riskiness of an international portfolio of assets.
You are a financial consultant working with a Tanzanian based multinational firm. The firm’s Managing
Director has approached you to assist in an urgent investment decision. The firm is planning to invest in the
UK, Kenya and the USA. It has currently no business in these countries. The firm considers establishing an
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equally invested two-investment portfolio comprising investments in any two of the three countries. A
preliminary appraisal of investment in each country was carried out, the results of which are detailed in the
table below.
Expected Return
Standard Deviation
UK Kenya
20% 10%
8%
6%
USA
30%
15%
The coefficients of correlation between investments are estimated to be:
UK - Kenya
UK – USA
USA - Kenya
-0.4
-0.7
0.9
Required:
(i)
Compute the risk and return of the alternative investment portfolios.
(ii)
Advise the firm on the appropriate investment portfolio based on portfolio relative risk.
2. Assess and measure return associated with investing in securities issued in different markets and
denominated in various
[Learning outcome b]
The foreign investment is affected by the return on asset within its own market and the changes in exchange rate
between the currency of the asset (security) and that of the buyer. So therefore, the return from foreign investment
will be comprised of return from the security’s home market and return (gain) from the changes in exchange rate.
For simplicity purposes, in measuring the return associated with investing in securities issued in different markets
and denominated in a variety of currencies we assume that the US $ is our domestic currency (any currency could,
of course serve the purpose). It follows that the total dollar returns on an investment can be decomposed into three
elements; Dividend/Interest Income; Capital Gains (Losses) and Currency Gains (Losses).
(i)
Measuring total returns from foreign bond investment
The return on investment in foreign corporate bonds is made up of the interest income (coupon income), capital
gain or loss and gain or loss of the currency denominating the bond. The domestic (home) currency return on
foreign bonds investment can be determined by the following formula.
Domestic currency return = foreign currency return x Currency gain or loss on a foreign bond.
This also can be presented as follow:
Where:
Rd = Domestic currency return on a foreign bond
B1 = Foreign currency bond price at time t
B0 = Foreign currency bond price at time
C = Coupon income = coupon rate x nominal value of bond
g = Percentage change in domestic currency value of the foreign currency.
B1 – B0 = Capital gain if BI > B0 or Capital loss if B1 < B0
B1 – B0 + C = Foreign currency return in monetary terms (positive or negative)
с Total foreign currency return
Therefore Rd = [1 + total foreign currency return} (1 + g) – 1.
Suppose you are given the following data regarding one - period foreign bond investment. The initial bond price of
the bond is 95, and the coupon income is 8. It is also certain that the end- of period bond price will be 97, and the
foreign currency appreciates by 3% against the dollar during the period.
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Required:
Calculate the one- period dollar return of the foreign bond investment.
Solution
The domestic currency ($) return = foreign currency return x currency gain or loss on a foreign bond.
Given from the question
B0 = 95; B1 =97; C (Coupon Income) = 8; g= 0.03 (appreciation of a currency denominating the bond investment)
̈́ ൌ ͳ൅
ͻ͹Ǧͻͷ൅ͺ
ͻͷ
ͳ൅ͲǤͲ͵ Ǧͳ
(ii) Measuring total returns from foreign stock investment
The domestic currency return on investment on foreign corporate securities is made up of dividend income, capital
gain or loss and currency gain or loss. This is given by the following formula
𝑅𝑅𝑑𝑑 ൌ ͳ ൅
Where:
𝑃𝑃ͳ − 𝑃𝑃Ͳ ൅ 𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖𝑣𝑣
𝑃𝑃Ͳ
ͳ ൅ 𝑔𝑔 − ͳ
Rd
= Domestic currency return on a foreign stock investment
P1
= Foreign currency stock price at time t
P0
= Foreign currency stock price at time 0
Div
= Dividend Income
g
=Percentage change in domestic currency value of the foreign currency
P1 – P0 = Capital gain if PI> P0 or Capital loss if P1< P0
P1 – P0 + Div = foreign currency return on the stock invest in monetary terms (positive or negative)
с Total foreign currency return
Therefore, dollar return (Rd ) = (1 + total foreign currency return) (1 + g) – 1.
Given the initial price of foreign currency stock X is $50, the dividend income is 1, the end of period stock price is
$48, and the foreign currency depreciates by 5% against the dollar during the period.
Required:
Calculate the total dollar return for stock X.
Solution:
𝑅𝑅𝑑𝑑 ൌ ͳ ൅
𝑃𝑃ͳ − 𝑃𝑃Ͳ ൅ 𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖𝑣𝑣
𝑃𝑃Ͳ
ͳ ൅ 𝑔𝑔 − ͳ
Given from the question: P0 = 50; P1 = 48; Div. = 1; and g= - 0.05 (5%)
𝑅𝑅̈́ ൌ ͳ ൅
Ͷͺ − ͷͲ ൅ ͳ
ͷͲ
ͳ − ͲǤͲͷ − ͳ
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̈́ ൌ ͲǤͻͺ ͲǤͻͷ − ͳ ൌ −ͲǤ͸ͻΨ
The total domestic currency (dollar) return is -6.9%. This implies that the investor suffered both a capital loss on
the foreign currency principal and a currency loss on the investment’s dollar value.
A Tanzanian based investor, Mr. Samba has just sold his shares held in Tausi Incorporation Limited - a Kenyan
based company that he had purchased six months ago. The investor (Samba) had invested TSHS 10,000,000 to
buy the Tausi shares for Kenyan Shillings (KES) 120 per share. The exchange rate six months ago, at the date of
transaction was KES 0.056/TSHS. Samba sold the share for stock for KES 135 per share and converted the
Kenyan Shillings proceeds into Tanzanian shilling at KES 0.05 per TSHS.
Required:
(a) Compute the domestic currency (TSHS) total percentage rate of return on Mr. Samba’s investment in Tausi
shares.
(b) Show the total profit and clearly state the implication of exchange rate changes on the Samba’ share’s return.
3.
Evaluate the application of the international capital assets pricing Model (ICAPM) in evaluating
internationally allocated investments
[Learning outcome c]
international capital pricing model (ICAPM) is an extension and is built on traditional and standard capital assets
pricing model (CAPM) developed by Sharpe (1978). The CAPM model was regarded an important tool for
evaluating domestic efficient portfolio management only. Consequent to globalisation, shrinkage of economic and
investment spaces, improved communication and transportation, the expansion of investment activities
internationally, and holding of assets (securities and shares) in different markets and denominated in different
currencies became possible. Through international diversification the multinational firms and companies could hold
assets in different jurisdictions and in assorted currencies. This called for development of the International Capita
Assets Pricing Model (ICAPM). This model is used for evaluating the performance of various elements of
investment portfolio denominated in different currencies across selected countries of the world. The ICAPM is as a
result applied to measure returns and risks of the internationally diversified assets and based on different
currencies. The model is relevant and applied in evaluating the performance of international stocks and shares,
which could not be possible under the standard CAPM.
The two models share two main assumptions. The shared assumptions include but not limited to (i) investors have
homogeneous preference, and (ii) They have access to similar assets and opportunities. In addition to assuming
that the investors have similar preference and opportunities, the ICAPM contrary to the standard CAPM assume
that the investors will not have similar expectations because they would pay different prices around the world
depending on the country where the investment is located. This is because the ICAPM considers state of economy
where the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory does not hold, such that the prices of assets will be different
across the nations. It should be recalled that the purchasing power parity works on assumption that the prices of
goods and services are similar across the world under law of one price.
It shown elsewhere in this section that International Capital Assets Pricing Model (ICAPM) is applicable and
suitable in assessing, evaluating the returns and risks of internationally allocated investment portfolios and which
are denominated in different currencies. The model considers unique factors and characteristics which are
presumably influential on investments and returns of globally allocated assets and denominated in different
currencies as well. This is because the extension and expansion of investment to foreign markets exposes
multinational Corporations (MNCs) and international firms to risks peculiar to global business environment. These
risks are inflation rate differentials between countries, exchange rate risk due to multiplicity use of foreign
currencies, and political risks. Both of the risks could affect the price of international assets and its forward
premium. The ICAPM considers these risks when determining the cost of capital in international context.
The main difference between the standard CAPM and ICAPM lies on these variables which are unique for
investments allocated in foreign markets.
Comparison between ICAPM and domestic CAPM
ICAPM
Risks and returns are influenced by different currencies
Investors have homogenous expectations to returns
and risks.
Domestic CAPM
Risks and returns are influenced by the country’s
currency
Investors have different expectations to returns and
risks.
InInternational Portfolio Theory and the International Capital Asset Pricing Model: 103
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Efficiency of portfolios is influenced by different
currencies ratio
It is used for market that is considered as a whole and
has merged with other countries.
Efficiency of portfolios is influenced by single currency
ratio
It is used for market that has segments within a country.
© GTG
4. Discuss market integration and segmentation concepts and evaluate barriers to international
diversification
[Learning outcome d]
Multinational corporations do not operate in a free business world. Investments across countries are subject to
various restrictions and impediments which could be legal, policy or social. These barriers and restrictions can
substantially influence the international diversification decisions and negatively affect the benefits of international
portfolio. The barriers could be in terms of legal, informational and economic restrictions; specific taxes
regulations, exchange control and lack of liquidity.
4.1 Barriers to international diversifications
The benefits of international diversification are considered to be real especially where capital markets are
segmented. It follows that the investment of assets and securities across countries will enable investor to reduce
risks with a given level of return. However, the benefits of international diversification are not automatic and free.
The benefits are normally affected (reduced) by the extent by which the host countries around the world will
impose restrictions. This is because investing in foreign countries will always encounter some barriers. The
barriers which reduce the benefits of global portfolios are as follows: Legal, economic and policy restrictions to
investing overseas, lack of liquidity, currency controls and remittance restrictions, specific tax regulations, political
and exchange risk, lack of adequate and readily accessible and comparable information on potential foreign
security acquisitions. The barriers perceivably increase riskiness of assets allocated in foreign markets and give
the investors justifications for investing their money locally (domestic market).
4.2 Capital market segmentation and integration and benefits of international diversifications
It is generally accepted that the ability of investors’ risk reduction through international diversification is partly a
function of the degree of the independence of a country’s capital market from the rest of the world. This is because
the objective of risk reduction through global diversification can reasonably be achieved if the returns and risks in
different countries do no move together, that is, they should move in opposite direction. This is only possible when
each country’s capital market is independent from each other, in terms of national economic and monetary policies
which influence nations’ macro-economic conditions, such as interest rates, inflation rates, and currency control
decisions. This condition depends on whether the global market is integrated, market integration or the market is
segmented, market segmentation.
Capital market integration
This concept denotes homogeneity of capital market around the world. It implies that the capital markets around
the world are interrelated and dependent to each other such that the factors influencing the returns and risks of
assets are similar. The capital market integration has negative effect on ability of risk reduction through
international diversification. It follows that with highly integrated capital market globally, the risk reduction benefit of
internationally diversified assets is minimised. The assets invested in an integrated financial market have identical
risks and similar expected returns and risk is reduction is less achieved. The correlation coefficients of returns and
risks in this kind of market is high and therefore (defeats) negatively affects the possibility of risk reduction through
global portfolio. The integrated global capital markets imply that respective county’s market share similar
characteristics and therefore locating assets in these different countries do not represent significant potential for
reduction of risk. An integrated market would only offer the opportunity to reduce unsystematic risk
Capital market segmentation
This is in contrast to capital market integration. If capital markets are segmented it implies that the consumption
and investment opportunity sets in domestic country differ from that of foreign countries. In a segmented capital
market, the conditions and factors that influence returns and risks of assets and securities differ across countries
because financial markets do not share similar characteristics. The returns and variation of returns for assets
allocated in different countries are therefore different and do conform to each other. The returns for an investment
in each specific capital market is determined and influenced by that country’s specific conditions. The capital
market segmentation is therefore associated with high potential for risk reduction through international
diversification because the correlation coefficients for internationally diversified assets are low. If markets are
segmented, international diversification may offer the opportunity to reduce both systematic and unsystematic risk.
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Shalom Inc. is a Tanzanian based company which intends to expand its operations trough international
diversifications in order to reduce both systematic and unsystematic risk.
Required:
Discuss the validity to investors of Shalom Inc’s objective for risk reduction through international diversification.
Solution
In theory a well-diversified investor will not place any extra value on companies that diversify. This is because an
investor can diversify himself, by investing in shares and in securities of different companies operating across
countries. If the diversification is international, the benefits will depend on whether the countries where the
investments take place are part of any integrated market or are largely segmented by government restrictions
taxes and exchange controls. If markets are segmented, international diversification may offer the opportunity to
reduce both systematic and unsystematic risk. An integrated market would only offer the opportunity to reduce
unsystematic risk. However, most markets are neither fully integrated nor segmented, meaning that international
diversification will lead to some reduction in systematic risk, which would be valued by investors. It is to be hoped
that risk reduction is not the only objective of Shalom Inc. Limited - returns and shareholder utility are important.
Mr. Nyensanza is the Managing Director of Mfanyakweli Plc, a company listed on the local stock exchange. The
company has excess funds amounting to Tshs.35 billion which the Managing Director is pondering investing
between Ugandan and Malawian portfolios. The Managing Director has called a meeting to table the matter to the
members for further discussion. During the discussion one of the members questioned the reliability and
practicability of international diversification which revealed that most of the participants were aware of its benefits
only but not its barriers which in turn might be a limiting factor.
Required:
As a portfolio manager, elaborate to the members the barriers to international diversification.
Answers to Test Yourself Questions (TYQ)
Answer to TY 1
These factors are
i. intercountry correlations – whereby a reasonably low correlation across markets is expected to be better off in
realising benefits of international diversification
ii. The variance (risk) of returns for each country’s assets (securities), and
iii. The expected return in each individual country. Highly asynchronous countries could contribute to low
international correlations and hence benefits of international diversification.
Answer to TY 2
i.
Candidates are expected to point out the weight of each asset, the riskiness of each as well as the correlation
across the assets and discuss how each influences portfolio riskiness.
There are three possible alternative investment portfolios namely: UK and Kenya (ii) UK and USA (iii) Kenya
and USA.
ii.
(iv)
Risk and return of the alternative investment portfolios
UK and Kenya
Given
Expected Returns:
Standard Deviation
Correlation Coefficient
UK
Kenya
UK
Kenya
20%
10%
8%
6%
-0.4
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Equally Invested Portfolio
Expected Portfolio Return = (0.5)(20%) + (0.5)(10%) = 15%
Portfolio Risk
= [(0.5)2(8) 2 + (0.5) 2 (6) 2 + 2(0.5)(0.5)(-0.4(8)(6)]1/2= [16 + 9 – 9.6] 1/2
= 15.41/2
= 3.92%
UK and USA
Given:
Expected Returns:
Standard Deviation
Correlation Coefficient
UK
USA
UK
USA
20%
30%
8%
15%
-0.7
Equally Invested Portfolio
Expected Portfolio Return = (0.5)(20%) + (0.5)(30%) = 25%
Portfolio Risk
= [(0.5)2(8) 2 + (0.5) 2 (15) 2 + 2(0.5)(0.5)(-0.7)(8)(15)]1/2
= [16 + 56.25 + 42] 1/2
= 30.251/2
= 5.5%
Kenya and USA
Given:
Expected Returns: KENYA
10%
USA
30%
Standard Deviation KENYA
6%
USA
15%
Correlation Coefficient
0.9
Equally Invested Portfolio
Expected Portfolio Return = (0.5)(10%) + (0.5)(30%) = 20%
Portfolio Risk
= [(0.5)2(6) 2 + (0.5) 2 (15) 2 + (0.5)(0.5)(0.9)(6)(15)]1/2
= [9 + 56.25 + 40] 1/2
= 105.751/2
= 10.3%
(v) Appropriate investment portfolio based on portfolio relative risk
Coefficient of variation can be used to select the appropriate investment portfolio based on portfolio relative risk.
UK and Kenya: Coefficient of Variation = 3.92/15 = 0.26
UK and USA:
Coefficient of Variation = 5.5/25 = 0.22
Kenya and USA: Coefficient of Variation = 10.3/20 = 0.51
The equally invested portfolio in UK and USA has the least Coefficient of Variation. It has therefore the least
relative risk. The firm may well be advised to select this portfolio.
Answer to TY 3
(2a). The domestic (TSHS) currency return on a foreign stock investment is given by the following formula
The domestic currency return of the shares (TSHS)
Where:
Rd
P1
= Domestic currency return on a foreign stock investment
= Foreign currency stock price at time t
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P0
Div.
g
= Foreign currency stock price at time 0
= Dividend Income.
= Percentage change in domestic currency value of the foreign currency.
© GTG
Therefore, Total RTSHS = [1 + Total foreign currency return} (1 + g) – 1
Given
Rd(TSHS)
P1
P0
Div.
=?
= KES 135
= KES 120
=0
сϬ͘ϮϰϵϵсϮϱй
(2b). The total return in domestic currency (TSHS) is 25%, which amounts to a total profit of TSHS 2,500,000 (25%
* TSHS 10,000,000) on Tausi shares by Mr Samba. The implication of this is that the Tanzanian based investor,
Mr Samba benefited from the appreciation of Kenya shilling (KES) against Tanzanian Shillings ( TSHS) , from
TSHS 18/KES ( KES 0.056/TSHS) to TSHS 20/KES (KES 0.05/TSHS) which is the currency denominating the
investment. The total profit in Tanzanian terms is TSHS 2,500,000 of which 11.11% is consequent to exchange
rate movement and specifically, the appreciation of KES (investment currency) against the TSHS (the Investee’
domestic currency).
Answer to TY 4
Despite the member’s awareness of benefits of international diversification, these benefits will be limited because
of the barriers to invest abroad. The barriers which reduce the benefits of global portfolios are as follows: Legal,
economic and policy restrictions to investing overseas, lack of liquidity, currency controls and remittance
restrictions, specific tax regulations, political and exchange risk, lack of adequate and readily accessible and
comparable information on potential foreign security acquisitions. The barriers perceivably increase riskiness of
assets allocated in foreign markets and give the investors justifications for investing their money locally (domestic
market).
Indicative Examination Questions (IEQs)
IEQ 1
Nshomire Plc currently operates only in Tanzania but is considering diversifying its activities internationally into
either Uganda or Kenya. Estimates have been obtained of the likely risk and return of investments in these
countries which are expected to vary during different economic states of Tanzania. After either diversification, an
approximately 30% of the market value of the company would be represented by overseas investments.
Tanzania
Economic
State
Low growth
Average growth
Rapid growth
Probability
0.3
0.5
0.2
Uganda
7
12
21
Expected IRR % for investing in
Kenya
Tanzanian
2
6
30
13
15
17
The standard deviations of expected returns of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania are 4.86, 12.26 and 4.03
respectively. Also, the covariance of expected returns of Tanzania/Uganda and Tanzania/Kenya are 17.89 and
31.98 respectively.
Members of Nshomire’s board of directors have different views about such diversification. Director A believes that
the company should focus exclusively upon the Tanzania market as it always has, because overseas investments
are too risky. Director B believes that overseas diversification will offer the company the opportunity to achieve a
much better combination of risk and return than purely domestic investments and will open up new opportunities.
Director C considers overseas investments expensive and argues that overseas diversification will not be valued
by shareholders who could easily achieve such diversification themselves. Director D is also in favour of Kenya but
suggests that a much higher proportion of the company’s activities should be located there, possibly between 50%
and 70%.
Required:
(a)
(i) Discuss the views of each of the four directors. Include in your discussion, relevant calculations regarding
portfolio risks and returns.
InInternational Portfolio Theory and the International Capital Asset Pricing Model: 107
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(ii)
(b)
© GTG
Estimate and explain the implications of the correlation coefficients between Tanzania and Uganda
and between Tanzania and Kenya
Nshomire Plc has also purchased CAPM-based risk and return estimates from an investment bank.
Relevant market return
(%)
13
18
Uganda
Kenya
Relevant risk free
(%)
5
8
Relevant investment
(%)
0.85
1.32
Required:
Assuming this information is accurate, show how it might be used to assist the diversification decision.
IEQ 2
A Tanzanian portfolio manager is contemplating to build up an international portfolio which is 60% invested in the Dar
es Salaam stock exchange (DSE) and 40% invested in either of two foreign markets: Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE)
and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The manager has gathered the following information on three different stock
exchanges.
Expected Return
10%
15%
20%
DSE
NSE
NYSE
Standard Deviation
9%
8%
10%
Correlation with DSE
1.0
0.7
0.0
Required:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
Determine the risks of the above mentioned internationally diversified portfolios and calculate the beta of
each of the two foreign markets relative to the DSE.
Which of the foreign market is as risky as the DSE?
Which of the two portfolios is likely to be chosen by the manager? Why?
Answer to IEQs
Answer to IEQ 1
(a)
(i)
It is useful to estimate the return and risk of the two diversification alternatives before examining in
detail the views of the directors. The portfolio return is simply the weighted average of the expected
returns of two elements of the portfolio. The portfolio risk may be estimated using the two-asset
portfolio theory equation, based upon the expected risk and return of each alternative.
Expected Returns of Individual projects
R   0.3 * 7  0.5 * 12  0.2 * 21  12.3%
Kenya R   0.3 * 2  0.5 * 30  0.2 * 15  18.6%
Uganda
UG
KY
Tanzania
R 
TZ
 0.3 * 6  0.5 * 13  0.2 * 17  11.7% .
Portfolio Returns
Expected Return Tanzania/Uganda
Expected Return Tanzania/Kenya
R
TZ EU
R
TZ EA
  0.7 * 11.7  0.3 * 12.3  11.88%
  0.7 * 11.7  0.3 * 18.6  13.77%
Portfolio Risks
The two-asset portfolio equation measures the total risk of the portfolio. This will include some specific or
unsystematic risk:
Portfolio risk Tanzania/Uganda
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 TZ
UG
© GTG

2
2
2
2
4.03 * 0.7  4.86 * 0.3  2 * 0.7 * 0.3 * 17.89  4.20
Portfolio risk Tanzania/Kenya
 TZ
KY

4.032 * 0.7 2  12.262 * 0.3 2  2 * 0.7 * 0.3 * 31.98  5.91
Summary: Portfolio expected returns and risk
Tanzania/Alone
Tanzania/Uganda
Tanzania/Kenya
Portfolio return
11.70
11.88
13.77
Portfolio risk
4.03
4.20
5.91
Coefficient of variation
0.344
0.354
0.429
The coefficient of variation is the ratio of the portfolio risk to the portfolio expected return. It shows the amount of
risk per the expected return, which would suggest that continuing only in the Tanzania, is the best course of action.
However, the risk/return preferences of Mchiziwanyoka Plc would need to be considered before a decision was
made, as would strategic and other issues discuss below:
Director A
Director A’s view has a merit in that the company would be sticking to its core market and core competence.
However, overseas investments are not always too risk is considered then the international diversification can
produce risk/return combinations that are not available from investing only in Tanzania. The benefits of
international portfolio diversification might reduce the overall risk below that available in the Tanzania, and provide
better combination of risk and return for Nshomire Plc. This is the view of Director B who correctly states that
international diversification will open up new opportunities.
Director C
Director C produce no evidence that overseas investments are more expensive that Tanzania investment. In May
multinational companies, lower labour and materials costs have been key/core motives for overseas investments.
Such investments have therefore been cheaper than the similar in Tanzania – based investments.
International diversification might also result in less variability of cash flows for Nshomire, as the markets are not
perfectly corrected. This reduction in risk, if recognized by providers of finance, might result in lower financing
costs, and a lower cost of capital.
Director D
Director D suggests a much higher proportion of investment in Kenya. If 50% - 70% was invested in Kenya, and
assuming market values reflected these proportions:
Expected portfolio returns
50% Kenya – Expected return
Tanzania/Kenya (RTZ/KY) = 0.5 * 11.7 + 0.5 * 18.6 = 15.15%.
70% Kenya – Expected return
Tanzania/Kenya (RTZ/KY) = 0.3 * 11.7 + 0.7 * 18.6 = 16.53%.
Portfolio Risk Tanzania/Kenya
If 50% of portfolio invested in Kenya
TZ / KY 
4.032 * 0.5 2  12.262 * 0.5 2  2 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 31.98
TS / KY  7.59
If 70% of portfolio invested in Kenya
InInternational Portfolio Theory and the International Capital Asset Pricing Model: 109
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TZ / KY 
© GTG
2
2
2
2
4.03 * 0.3  12.26 * 0.7  2 * 0.7 * 0.3 * 31.98
TS / KY  9.41
The potential returns increase significantly, but so too does risk. Unless Nshomire is seeking very high returns
and is prepared to take the extra risk, there is no evidence to support the view that a higher proportion should be
invested in Kenya. Such a move would probably mean closing some Tanzania operations with the resultant
problems of redundancy and would be a major strategic change from the company’s current position.
The risk and return evidence should only be the decision process. The data itself is likely to be subjective and
incurrence. It is impossible to know with any degree of accuracy what future returns will be, and the assignment of
probabilities to different economic states is at speculative.
(ii)
The correlation coefficient
CORTZ
UG

CORTZ
KY

COVTZ EU
 TZ *  UG

17.89
 0.91
4.03 * 4.86
COVTZ / KY
31.98

 0.65
 TZ *  KY 4.03 * 12.26
Although the returns between the Tanzania and Uganda and Kenya are both positively correlated, the degree of
correlation is much higher for the Tanzania and Uganda at 0.91. This means that relatively little risk reduction will
take place because of the strong positive relationship between the Tanzania and Uganda. This is evidenced by the
portfolio standard deviation of 4.20 is a little different from the individual standard deviations.
The lower correlation coefficient of 0.65 between Tanzania and Kenya allows much more risk reduction from
international diversification, with the standard deviation of Kenya alone (12.26) reducing to a much safer 5.91 as
part of portfolio with the Tanzania.
(b)
Using CAMP
Required Return is =
R f  Rm  R f S i
Uganda
Required Return is
R f  Rm  R f Bi  5%  13%  5%*0.85  11.8%
The expected return is 12.3%
The Ugandan investment is expected to provide an abnormally good return for its systematic risk, and on that
basis would be recommended.
Kenya
Required Return is
R f  Rm  R f B j  8%  18%  8%*1.32  21.2%
The expected return is 18.6%
The investment is not providing sufficient return for its systematic risk and would not be recommended. However,
strategic and non-financial factors should also play a major role in the decision process.
Answer to IEQ 2
(b)
Tanzania Portfolio Manager
Let:
DSE = Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange
NSE= Nairobi Stock Exchange
NYSE = New York Stock Exchange
(i) DSE – NSE Portfolio
110
International Investment Analysis
202 : Business
StrategyPortfolio Risk
σρ =√
© GTG
a 2 2 DSE  b 2 r 2 NSE  2ab.rDSE , NSE DSE NSE
σρ= √ (0.6)2 (9)2 + (0.4)2 (8)2 + 2(0.6)(0.4)(0.7)(9)(8)
σρ= √63.592 = 7.97%
DSE- NYSE Portfolio
Portfolio Risk
σρ = √ a
2
 DSE 2  b 2 2 NYSE  2ab.rDSE , NYSE DSE  NYSE
σρ= √(0.6)2 (9)2 + (0.4)2 (10)2 + 2(0.6)(0.4)(0)(9)(10)
σρ=√45.16 = 6.72%
(ii) Foreign Market Beta
NSE Beta
β NSE =  NYSE rDSE , NYSE = [8 x 0.7]/9=0.62
 DSE
Thus, neither market is as risky as the DSE.
(iii)
Comparing the two portfolios (use coefficient of variation: CV)
CV= Portfolio standard deviation/ expenditure return on the portfolio
DSE – NSE Portfolio
DSE  NYSE
CV  6.72  0.48
14
The CV of the DSE-NYSE Portfolio is less than of DSE-NSE Portfolio. Thus, the DSE-NYSE Portfolio is likely to be
chosen by the manager.
SECTION C
C1
BusinessAnalysis:
Valuation:
Business
203111
© GTG
BUSINESS VALUATION
CONCEPTS AND
APPLICATIONS
STUDY GUIDE C1: BUSINESS
VALUATION
A company may seek a valuation of its business or some part of it for a variety of reasons. It may be planning
a major acquisition or considering a merger, It may need an objective analysis and valuation, to determine
the right price to pay or accept for the business, a valuation of unlisted companies, businesses,
shareholdings, goodwill, know-how, brands and other intangible assets.
An analysis of the business is also carried out when it needs advice on resolving a shareholder or joint
venture dispute, or when seeking to reduce the gap between intrinsic and market value. Corporate
governance, regulatory reasons, or management review for critical input for decision making process also
demand a proper analysis and valuation of the business.
Business analysis is not a simple exercise of numbers. The business analyst has to spend time to
understand the business dynamics and its key value drivers. This Study Guide discusses the various aspects
of business analysis which will be very useful in your career.
a) Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based on
business scenarios using:
i.
Dividend yield-based valuation techniques
ii.
Price earnings ratio-based valuation techniques
iii.
Discounted cash flow-based valuation techniques
iv.
Asset based and net asset-based measures of value
v.
Options based techniques
vi.
Value based management
vii.
Shareholder value analysis
viii.
Short- and long-term growth rates and terminal values
ix.
Economic profit methods
x.
Cash flow return on investment
xi.
Total shareholder return
xii.
Market value added
Mr Omar Missanga had set up a business 30 years ago for the manufacture and export of semi-precious
jewellery. The business, Gemqual Exports, had built a reputation among its customers for the high quality and
unique designs of its products. As Mr Missanga was getting on in years, he decided to sell his business. He
realised that he first had to know what his business was worth today.
He, therefore, approached a well-known firm in Dar es Salaam, which specialises in business valuations. The
valuation expert asked Mr Missanga to describe his business and its strengths and weaknesses. He also asked
for the financial statements for the past five years.
Gemqual’s profile
Gemqual, in general, had a history of earning profits most years. Last year, the income was Tshs 800 million
before taxes. Mr Missanga earned an annual salary of Tshs 300million. Gemqual sourced its semiprecious gems and other material within Tanzania from key reputed suppliers and this provided it with a
significant competitive advantage over its rivals. He had also developed a good relationship with his customers
over a number of years and they were happy to deal with him regularly.
112
204 :Business
BusinessValuation Concepts and Applications
Analysis
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Valuation Approaches
The valuation expert considered all the inputs from Mr Missanga and decided to approach the valuation
question from three perspectives.
The income approach
The income approach or the discounted cash flow method capitalises or discounts the firm’s expected income
stream. The DCF method is discounted cash flow analysis estimates the present value of the future stream of
net cash flows generated by the business. The net cash flows are forecast for an appropriate period and then
discounted to present value using a discount rate that reflects the current interest rate and the risks of the
business.
The market approach
This approach uses valuation multiples from the stock prices of comparable publicly traded companies or from
acquisition deals of similar businesses. Adjustments are made to the financial data to account for the differences
between the firms, as well as for factors such as the value of controlling the company.
The cost approach
This method considers the replacement cost of the firm’s assets as an indication of what an investor might like
to pay.
Using the Approaches
The valuer decided to use the discounted cash flow approach to provide a realistic assessment of the business's
value. The market approach served primarily as a check or control on the value he calculated by the income
approach. He decided that the cost approach was not suitable in this situation because Gemqual is a going
concern, having a high "goodwill" value, such as brand equity, established customer relationships and a reliable
supplier base. These factors are difficult to value under this method.
To arrive at a value for Gemqual, the valuer first prepared cash flow forecasts for the next ten years. Cash flow
forecasts require estimating the revenues and costs considering several factors which might affect the sales and
costs. A trend analysis of the past 5 years financials provided a reliable basis for such estimates as the
business had a good record of profitability. He then derived the present value of future free cash flows using the
present market interest rate, adjusting it for the industry risk factors.
He then compared the value derived from this forecast with that derived from the market approach. He found
that the market approach valued the business 10% higher. He finalised his report and discussed this with Mr
Missanga. He clarified that such business valuations provide an indicator of what the business could be worth.
He advised Mr Missanga that while negotiating, he could begin with a price based on the market approach and
finally settle at the DCF value.
1. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based on
business scenarios using:
i. Dividend yield based valuation techniques
[Learning Outcome a]
Dividend yield based valuation techniques
The important feature of the dividend valuation model is the recognition of the fact that shares are in themselves
perpetuities (expected to be in existence for indefinite period). Individual investors may buy or sell them, but
only very exceptionally are they actually redeemed.
1. Dividend discount model (DDM)
The dividend discount model can be a worthwhile tool for equity valuation. Financial theory states that the value
of stock is the value of all the future cash flows expected to be generated by the firm discounted by an
appropriate risk-adjusted rate. We can use dividends as a measure of the cash flows returned to the
shareholders.
The dividend discount model assumes that any share is ultimately worth no more than what it will provide
investors in current and future dividends.
BusinessAnalysis:
Valuation:
113
Business
205
© GTG
Price of share at time zero
A company pays a Tshs1,000 annual dividend. If we assume that the company will pay that dividend indefinitely,
then how much is an investor willing to pay for this company? Assume that the expected return or, more
appropriately, the 'required rate of return' is 5%.
Then, according to the dividend discount model, the company should be worth Tshs 20,000 (Tshs1,000/0.05).
2. Dividend growth model
Under the dividend discount model, two basic factors are considered: expected dividends and expected return
(i.e. cost on equity). It assumes a constant dividend, however, in practice, the expected dividends may increase.
The dividend growth model takes into account growth rates in earnings and pay-out ratios when pricing shares.
The required rate of return on stock is determined by the degree of risk. Myron Gordon created a constant
dividend growth model which assumes that, if a company issues a dividend with a current value of D, this value
will grow at a constant rate g. The Gordon growth model is a variant of the discounted dividend model.
Price of share at time zero
Alternatively
Where,
D0 = the current year’s dividend
re = the expected rate of return
g = the expected growth rate for dividends
114
Business Valuation Concepts and Applications
206 : Business
Analysis
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A company is expected to pay Tshs1,000 as annual dividend. If we assume that the company's dividend will
increase by 3% annually, then how much is an investor willing to pay for a share in this company? Assume that
the 'required rate of return' is 5%.
Then, according to the Gordon Growth Model, the company will be worth Tshs 50,000 (Tshs1,000/ (0.05 0.03)).
Theoretically, the Gordon growth model is the best method of stock valuation. However, if a firm is not paying
dividends, or has an erratic growth rate, the approach will not work.
Tanzan Infrastructure Ltd is a large firm engaged in constructing roads and bridges across Tanzania. The
shareholders are the government, a large private group and the public. The company is listed in the Dar es
Salaam stock exchange. The firm has a stable growth and as it is partly government owned, the profitability is
regulated, although still quite attractive.
The dividend paid in the previous year, 20X2 was Tshs220. The cost of equity = 9%.
The company foresees a good future, considering the large infrastructural development efforts being made by
the government. It expects to grow at 3.5% for a long time.
Required:
What would the price of the equity share of the firm be according to the Gordon growth model? The company’s
shares are currently trading at Tshs4200. Would you be willing to invest in this firm?
2. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based
on business scenarios using:
ii. Price earnings ratio-based valuation techniques
[Learning Outcome a]
2.1 Price earnings ratio-based valuation techniques
Firms are most commonly valued through their earnings. Many stock market investors consider the Price
Earnings Ratio or P/E as the most important and reliable indicator of the value of a company. It is often
described as the king of ratios. The P/E indicates what the market is willing to pay for the company’s earnings.
P/E is calculated by dividing the price per share by the earnings per share (EPS).
P
P/E = 0 , where EPS =
EPS
earnings after tax
number of equity-shares outstanding
In a case where a firm has preference shares, the dividend payable on them is deducted before arriving at the
profits pertaining to the equity shareholder.
Therefore, P0 = P/E x EPS
Firms with good growth potential have a higher P/E because investors are willing to pay a premium for future
profits. Firms listed on a stock exchange generally have a higher P/E ratio. A P/E ratio for a large, growing
quoted company with good prospects might be as high as 20.Their shares are much easier to buy and sell. This
makes them more attractive to investors than shares in comparable unquoted business.
© GTG
Business Valuation: 115
Business Analysis: 207
You are considering buying 100 shares in Special Foods Ltd. You are provided with some financial data of the
company.
The share is currently selling at Tshs2500 per share and has not changed much over the last one year. Last
year, Special Foods had earnings of Tshs170 per share. Analysts estimate the company will earn Tshs200 per
share this year. Do you think you should buy this share?
P/E based on last year’s earnings =2500/170 = 14.7
P/E based on current expected earnings =2500/200 = 12.5.
As the price of the share has not changed much, the P/E ratio based on the current year’s expected earnings is
12.5 as against last year’s P/E of 14.7. As the P/E is lower at present, it appears very attractive for purchase.
Although the P/E is usually based on the past earnings, it is not merely a measure of a firm’s past performance.
Stock prices reflect the expectations of the investors about the firm’s value and therefore, future growth is
already factored into the price. Hence, we can interpret the P/E ratio as an indicator of the market's optimism
about a company's future growth.
If a company has a P/E higher than the market or industry average, this means that the market expects very
high earnings over the next few months or years. Ultimately, a firm with a high P/E ratio has to substantially
increase its earnings, or the stock price will drop drastically.
The P/E ratio is a better indicator of the value of a firm’s share than the market price alone as it is a relative
measure rather than an absolute figure. A Tshs1700 share with a P/E of 30 is more expensive than a
Tshs15000 share with a P/E of 16.
2.2 Major factors affecting P/E
The major factors that influence the P/E of a firm have to be considered before we can determine whether a
share is priced too high or low.
(a) Growth rates: An investor has to look at the rate of growth of the company in the past and whether the
growth is likely to increase or decrease in the future. If the forecast growth rates do not support the P/E,
then the share may be overvalued.
(b) Industry: Comparison of the P/E across industries may not prove useful. It has to be done for firms within
the same industry. Technology companies, for instance have a high P/E whereas utility firms may have very
low but very stable growth rates.
(c) Brand: The name of a product or company has value. Established brands such Coca Cola are worth
billions.
(d) Human Capital: A firm’s employees and their skills/expertise add significant value to the firm.
(e) Expectations: Past performance may have an impact on the P/E, but more importantly, the market lays
more stress on the future prospects.
Valuation of a company using the PE ratio:
Value of company = Total earnings x P/E ratio
A company earned Tshs100m last year, with one million shares outstanding, and had earnings per share of
Tshs100(Tshs 100m/1m). The current market price is quoted at Tshs1,000. Therefore, the company’s P/E
multiple will be 10 (Tshs1,000/Tshs100). The company's earnings this year rose to Tshs120m and, accordingly,
EPS rose to Tshs120. Assuming the same P/E multiple, i.e. investors are willing to pay Tshs10 for every Tshs1
of last year's earnings, the company’s valuation using the P/E ratio method will be Tshs1200m (Tshs120 x 10).
116
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184 : Business Analysis
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By relating price and earnings per share for a company, one can analyse the market valuation of a
company's shares relative to the wealth the company is actually creating.
This method has two drawbacks:
1. It is based on earnings and accounting profits, which are not good indicators of actual value creation for
shareholders.
2. Selection of the multiplier is not consistent i.e. the company can choose whether to use the industry average
or the adjusted industry average based on the company's expected growth, the rate of return on new capital
and the costs of capital.
2.3 Price earnings to growth (PEG) ratio
We mentioned the factors that affect the firm’s earnings growth earlier. As the P/E ratio most commonly uses
past earnings, it gives a less accurate reflection of the growth prospects. The relationship between the P/E ratio
and earnings growth provides us with a more comprehensive measure. This is called the PEG ratio.
PEG Ratio =
P/E ratio
Annual EPS growth
It is calculated as a share’s P/E ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings for a particular time period. The
PEG ratio provides a better analysis since it takes into account the firm’s earnings growth.
Sometimes decisions on the purchase or sale of a share based on the P/E may not be correct. A high P/E ratio
may make a share look attractive, but, when the PEG ratio is considered, it may lead to a different decision. The
lower the PEG ratio, the more the share may be undervalued given its earnings performance. A guideline used
in a PEG ratio is that a ratio below one is preferable.
Also, the accuracy of the PEG ratio depends on the inputs used. Using historical growth rates, for example, may
provide an inaccurate PEG ratio if future growth rates are expected to deviate from historical growth rates. To
distinguish between calculation methods using future growth and historical growth, the terms "forward PEG" and
"trailing PEG" are sometimes used.
You have come into some money left by your grandfather. You are considering investing this amount in shares
of one of the two companies that you have been studying. Abacus Technologies is in the IT business. It has
been experiencing an annual growth of 18% in its profits. Its P/E ratio is 40. The second company, Frying Moe’s
is in the fast food business. It has lower earnings growth at 13% and its P/E ratio is also relatively low at 12.
A large number of investors support the high valuations of companies like Abacus arguing that these companies
have enormous growth potential. However, when compared to the rate of growth of their profits, they may be
overvalued.
On first glance, it appears that Abacus Technologies is a better buy as it has a P/E of 40, compared to Frying
Moe’s 12.
Abacus Technologies’ PEG =
Frying Moe’s PEG =
12
13
40
18
= 2.22
= 0.92
The PEG ratio shows us that, when compared to Frying Moe’s, Abacus does not have the growth rate to justify
its higher P/E, and its share price appears overvalued.
Business Valuation: 117
© GTG
Business Analysis: 185
1. Evaluation of PEG
The PEG ratio provides more information about a share’s valuation. It is forward-looking and is a valuable tool
for investors trying to evaluate a company’s prospects. However, as with any other ratio, this too has its benefits
and drawbacks.
(a) Advantages
(i) Some shares with a high PE ratio may be worth investing in because their potential growth in not factored
into the price. The PE ratio may consider these as high priced, whereas they may be attractively priced.
(ii) Most valuation ratios do not emphasise the growth rate in earnings or cash flow, whereas this is basically
the focus of the PEG ratio. Since most investors desire to invest in equities to take advantage of the growth
in income, this ratio is a better tool than many others which focus on current earnings or sales or book
value.
(b) Disadvantages
(i) It depends heavily on the future earnings estimates and long-term earnings growth. Therefore, it is not very
precise.
(ii) Firms in distress may show high PEG ratios. Therefore, a low PEG could be an indicator of imminent
bankruptcy.
An analyst is of the opinion that he prefers to use P/E multiples, rather than DCF valuation, to value shares,
because he does not trust many assumptions about fundamentals such as growth, risk, and payout ratios. Do
you agree with him?
You are estimating the P/E multiple to use to value Apricot Corporation, by looking at the average price/earnings
multiple of comparable firms. The following are the P/E ratios of firms in the IT business in Tanzania.
Firm
Macrohard Tech
NexGen
Tanz Infotech
ABT
Infomatics
Eldee Soft
Omega Solutions
PanAfrica Systems
Simba Eyetee
P/E Ratio
22.09
36.00
14.10
26.70
19.12
23.33
22.91
97.60
26.00
Required:
(a) Calculate the average industry P/E ratio.
(b) Would you use all the comparable firms in calculating the average? Provide reasons.
(c) What are the assumptions made when the industry-average P/E ratio is used to value Apricot?
118 Business Valuation Concepts and Applications
186 : Business Analysis
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3. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based
on business scenarios using:
iii. Discounted cash flow-based valuation techniques
[Learning Outcome a]
Introduction
You are already familiar with the time value of money and have used the DCF techniques to evaluate a project.
Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is a method of valuing the intrinsic value of a firm or asset. DCF analysis
states that a company is worth all of the cash that it could make available to investors in the future. It is
described as "discounted" cash flow because cash in the future is worth less than in hand cash today.
This is a straightforward model in which the future free cash flows of a business are discounted at a rate that
reflects the risk inherent in the business, to calculate the value of that business. This model is based on the
idea that the discounted value of all anticipated future free cash flows generated by the company represents the
market value of a company. To derive the equity value (i.e. the value per ordinary share) the value of debt is
simply subtracted from the total market value.
The steps involved in using this valuation technique are:
Step 1: Determine the time horizon for the cash flows on which the valuation will be based
Step 2: Calculate the free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) for each year, with the FCFF in the last year being an
estimate of the “terminal value”
Step 3: Determine the company’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
Step 4: Discount the FCFF each year by the WACC to discover the NPV of the FCFF
Step 5: Calculate the value of the equity by subtracting the value of the debt from the NPV calculated in step 4
Step 6: Divide the value of equity by the number of ordinary shares in issue to get the value per share
The following relates to MICA Ltd:
Equity
Debt
Tshs 500m
Tshs 750m
After year 5, free cash flows are expected to grow at a rate of 2% per annum
Corporate tax rate
Expected return on equity
Interest on debt
35%
12%
10%
No. of equity shares in issue are 100m
Therefore,
Business Valuation: 119
Business Analysis: 187
© GTG
Projected free cash flows
Year
Cash inflow
(Tshs’ million)
1
2
3
4
5
6 (W1)
85
98
117
134
146
2,222.69
PV factor @
8.70%
PV Cash flow
(Tshs’ million)
0.920
0.846
0.779
0.716
0.659
0.606
Total
78.20
82.91
91.14
95.94
96.21
1,346.95
1,791.35
Workings
W1 terminal value = (146 x 1.02) / (0.087-0.02) = 2,222.69
The value per share under the DCF method will be:
=
PV of cash flows - Value o debt
Number of outstanding shares
=
1,791.35 - 750
100
= Tshs 10.41 per share
Segoma Industries Ltd manufactures and markets critical machine parts for several industries in East Africa.
Key financial information of the company for the 20X2 and 20X3 are given below:
Revenues
Less: Operating Expenses
Less: Depreciation
EBIT
Less: Interest Expenses
Less: Taxes Net
Income Working
Capital
Tshs billion
20X2
540.0
(450.1)
(12.5)
77.4
0.0
(23.2)
54.2
175.0
Tshs billion
20X3
630.0
(532.5)
(14.0)
83.5
0.0
(24.5
59.0
240.0
The firm had capital expenditures of Tshs15 billion in 20X2 and Tshs18 billion in 20X3. The working capital in
20X1 was Tshs180billion.
Required:
(a) Estimate the cash flows to equity in 20X2 and 20X3.
(b) What would the cash flows to equity in 20X3 have been if working capital had remained at the same %age
of revenue it was in 20X2?
120
188 :Business
Business Valuation
Analysis Concepts and Applications
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4. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based
on business scenarios using:
iv. Asset based and net asset-based measures of value
[Learning Outcome a]
Asset based and net asset-based measures of value
The asset-b ased approach is useful when it is applied to tangible assets and to firms in which tangible
assets are predominant. The value determined under the asset-based approach tends is more reliable and is
generally greater for tangible assets recently purchased in arms-length transactions. Asset based approaches
are also appropriate in the case of a firm which has financially not been performing well.
1. Valuation of tangible assets
Assets can be valued at their book value, market value, and replacement value.
Net assets = Total assets - Total external liabilities
Net assets per share = Net assets/Number of equity shares issued and outstanding.
There are three common ways of valuing a firm’s assets: book values, net realisable values and replacement
values.
(a) The book value of assets is easily obtained from the financial statements. However, it is unlikely that book
values, which are based on historical cost principles, will be a reliable indicator of current market values.
The value of non-current assets considers the historical (sunk) costs and arbitrary depreciation. These
amounts are not relevant either to the purchaser or the seller. Moreover, the book values of net current
assets except cash often need adjustment, e.g. receivables may include amounts pending for long and
unlikely to be realised. Some inventories may be slow moving or obsolete.
(b) Net realisable values: This amount represents the amount available for shareholders if the assets were
sold off and the liabilities settled. In case the business being sold is a profitable one, then the shareholders
may receive more than the net realisable value of the net assets because intangible assets such as
goodwill, brands and customer are unlikely to be valued and reflected in the financial statements.
(c) Replacement value represents the alternative cost of setting up a similar business from scratch The value
of a successful business using replacement values is likely to be lower than its true value unless an
estimate is made for the value intangible assets. Obtaining the replacement cost of a variety of assets of
varying ages is difficult. The net realisable value is more useful because it establishes to floor level below
which the seller should not accept.
A firm has planned to sell its business. One of the approaches it is considering for valuation is the net realisable
approach. The latest statement of financial position of the firm as at March 3, 20X3 is given below
(Amounts in Tshs’ million)
Assets
Noncurrent assets
Inventory
Receivables
Cash
Current assets
Total assets
Liabilities
Share capital
Reserves
Net worth
Long term debts
Current liabilities
Total liabilities
Book value
2000
800
650
500
1950
3950
850
1300
2150
850
950
3950
Continued on the next page
Business Analysis:
Valuation:
121
Business
189
© GTG
Non-current assets contain land and buildings that are valued Tshs800 million higher than the book value,
whereas plant and equipment will be sold for Tshs150 million lower than their book value. A prospective
customer is willing to buy the entire inventory for Tshs 650 million. It is expected that the firm can collect only
Tshs550 million out of receivables. Estimated expenses for valuation and transfer of the business amounting to
Tshs150 million have to be provided. The changes to the original figures according to the valuer are entered in
the “adjustments” column against their respective heads. A new SOFP, based on the net realisable value is
derived. This shows that the shareholders will receive Tshs 2400 million as against Tshs 2150 million reported in
its last financial statements.
(Amounts in Tshs’ million)
Assets
Non-current assets
Book value
Adjustments
Net realisable
value
2000
800
(150)
2650
Inventory
Receivables
Cash
Current assets
Total assets
800
650
500
1950
3950
(150)
(100)
(250)
400
650
550
500
1700
4350
Liabilities
Share capital
Reserves
Net worth
850
1300
2150
250*
250
850
1550*
2400
Long term debts
850
Current liabilities
Total liabilities
950
3950
*balancing figure
850
150
400
1100
4350
2. Valuing intangibles
Intangible assets usually have the effect of increasing the price a buyer is prepared to pay for an acquisition.
Brands, customer relationships, patents and exclusive supply agreements are some forms of intangible assets
that give the buyer comfort and confidence over the future earnings of acquired businesses. They are key value
drivers in a business. International financial reporting standards (IFRS) recognise this issue and require all
assets and liabilities, tangible and intangible, acquired as part of a business combination to be valued to arrive
at the residual amount to be attributed to goodwill. When intangibles are recognised, it has an impact on the
financial statements, in particular on earnings and the ROI. This is important for companies where an acquisition
can have a significant impact on earnings due to a large portion of the purchase price being allocated to
goodwill and intangible assets.
Intangible asset valuations can be carried out in a number of ways. Generally, there are three main
approaches:
(a) Income valuation: Future earnings that are attributable to the brand or other intangible asset are forecast
over its useful life and discounted to its net present value. In order to carry out this exercise, data regarding
market trends, the nature and type of competition, the nature of the intangible assets and their relationship
with the consumer and so on is necessary.
(b) Market valuation: In the market approach methodology, intangible assets are valued by utilising actual
transaction values derived from the sale, license or transfer of similar assets in similar markets. This
approach is best if an active market exists that can provide examples of recent arm’s length transactions
and additional information on their terms and conditions. Transactions are analysed for comparability.
Royalty and licensing arrangements can be used to benchmark an appropriate royalty rate.
(c) Cost valuation: The cost approach is based on the principle of substitution. The assumption made is that
potential buyers will not pay anything more for an asset than it would cost them to develop or obtain that
same asset or an asset with similar utility. The value of intangible assets is determined by adding together
all the costs involved in their development. There are two cost approach methods: reproduction cost and
replacement cost.
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Reproduction cost considers the amounts of expenditure necessary to reproduce the same asset with the same
features and attributes. It is used in relation to litigation involving patents or when return on investment needs to
be measured. The “replacement cost” method, on the other hand, measures the expenditures necessary to
develop an asset with similar utility and is appropriate in situations such as determining a target price prior to
negotiations or calculating a basis for suitable royalty rates or transfer pricing.
Generally, the income valuation approach is used. This is because it is more realistic and assists in
benchmarking fairly reliably, resulting in a valuation which is objective. The resulting values can be used for
several purposes, including: compliance with financial reporting standards such as IFRS, IAS and US GAAP,
inter-company reporting, tax planning, ROI analysis, licensing arrangements, M and A, brand transactions,
dispute resolution and investor relations. Of the three approaches to valuation, the asset-based approach is
generally considered to be the weakest from a conceptual standpoint. Another simple method which is used is
the multiplier. The additional value generated by the intangible assets over and above the value of the firm's
tangible assets is attempted to be estimated.
The formula is:
Firm value = (book or replacement cost of the real assets) + (multiplier X annual profit or turnover]
The multiplier is negotiated between the parties to compensate for the intangible assets including goodwill.
3. Benefits of valuing intangible assets
Owning and using intangible assets can increase the value of the business by offering several benefits:
(a) Cost advantage: Intangible assets can create a cost advantage, e.g. a new technology developed in house
that enables the firm to manufacture a product in less time or cost than a competitor would, creates a cost
savings for the firm.
(b) Premium pricing: Intangible assets allow the business to command higher prices, which in turn increase
profits. e.g. Ariel can command a higher price for its detergent powder than a generic brand.
(c) Exclusive rights: Intangible assets can provide your business with exclusive rights, e.g. a patent held by
the firm for a product or technology prevents competitors from making the same product or using the same
technology.
Public health experts in Europe estimate that pharmaceutical companies earned huge amounts of profit over the
last decade by aggressively promoting “evergreen” medications to Swiss consumers. “Ever greening” is the
term used when a patented drug formula is slightly modified in order to extend the patent period. This cost the
healthcare system in Geneva an extra €30m between 2000 and 2008. Drug patents last for 20 years, but much
of this time is spent in expensive research and development.
On an average, it takes around 12 years from the time it is developed in the laboratory and $350 million to bring
the product to the market. In order to extend the benefits accruing from the patent, pharmaceutical companies
use tactics such as ''ever greening'', or ''life cycle management''.
(d) Barriers to entry: Intangible assets can either create or barriers to entry. A superior product can overcome
the competition or create strong barriers to entry for potential competitors.
(e) Market share: Market share can be increased by leveraging the value of the brand and launching new
products under the same brand. The customer recognition of a strong brand can facilitate the introduction of
new products and product lines.
Brand extensions have driven a major part of the growth in sales of top brands in the UK, with newly introduced
products contributing to nearly two thirds of the sales increase of around £100 million. The growth in the Jack
Daniel’s brand by 10.4% was almost entirely contributed by the launch of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey.
Explain the difference, if any, between discounted cash flow and asset based valuation.
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5. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based
on business scenarios using:
v. Options based techniques
[Learning Outcome a]
Options based techniques
An option refers to a derivative financial instrument that represents a contract between two parties (the writer of
the option and the holder of the option) for a future transaction on an underlying asset at a pre-determined strike
price. An option gives its holder the right to buy (call option) or sell (put option) a quantity of a security or any
other financial asset in exchange for another, on or before a specified date, at a fixed rate of exchange (the
strike rate for the option).
Share options hold a vital position in today’s financial market. This is due to the fact that share options are listed
in stock exchanges as investment vehicles and companies use these options for business purpose like
employee remuneration and hedging of currency.
Types of option used in valuation are as follows:
1. The Black, Scholes, Merton (“BSM”) model
The BSM model is a valuation model that uses an equation to arrive at an estimated fair value of the price of the
stock. The BSM valuation model includes inputs for the share price of a traded stock, the exercise price, the
volatility of the stock and the risk-free interest rate.
The model assumes that the option is exercised at the end of an option’s contract period. It also assumes that
the expected volatility, expected dividends, and risk-free interest rates remain constant over the option’s term.
The BSM model was developed to value options traded in an active market and hence, it may not be suitable to
value non-trading instruments in an illiquid market.
2. The Binomial option pricing or lattice model
Unlike the Black-Scholes-Merton which is a closed-form model, the binomial option pricing model is a lattice,
and provides an estimated fair value based on several successive period’s expected changes in the prices of a
financial instrument.(A lattice is a structure made from wood or metal pieces arranged in a criss-cross or
diamond pattern with spaces in between).
The lattice model uses a binomial tree to construct different paths that the company's share can take. The
model splits time into discrete points and calculates the expected price based on the different pathways along
the binomial tree.
For example, the lattice model can split up time into monthly, quarterly, or annul segments. As the price can
move either up or down, a probability is assigned to each of them on the path. Like the BSM model, the lattice
model also considers volatility, time to maturity, risk free rate, strike price, share price, and dividends. Valuation
experts believe that the binomial tree model provides a more accurate estimate of a share option’s fair value
3. The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) model
Monte Carlo simulations are based on an algorithm that generates random numbers that are used to compute a
formula that does not have a closed form. A trial and error method is used in picking up random numbers/events
and an assessment is made of the results. This results in a value that approximates the solution.
Drawing random numbers over a large number of times (a few hundred to a few million depending on the
problem at stake) provides a fair indication of what the result of the formula would be. This model is extremely
complex and expensive to use. As the MCS model is not limited by the number of assumptions which can be
built into it, it is viewed as an appropriate model to use for options with multiple varying assumptions.
Explain in brief the Black, Scholes, Merton model.
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6. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based
on business scenarios using:
vi. Value based management
[Learning Outcome a]
Value based management (VBM)
1. Introduction
VBM is a term used to describe an integrated framework of measurement and management tools. It supports
the delivery of high-performance results and further develops the strengths of financial measures, such as
Economic Value. It does so by considering the perspectives of several stakeholders (customers in particular)
who determine the success of the firm. The approach ensures that firms are driven by the objective of creating
‘value’.
Value-based management can be defined as an integrated management control system that measures,
encourages and supports the creation of net worth.
2. Features of VBM
Value-based management includes the following elements:
(a) value creation, that is, methods which would result in increasing future value
(b) value management which is concerned with organisational culture, governance, leadership, change
management, etc
(c) value measurement.
VBM aims to provide consistency in an organisation’s mission, strategic plans, governance modes, culture,
communication systems, processes of decision making and performance management, etc.
‘The McKinsey Quarterly’ journal published in 1994 an article on value-based management which is an excerpt
from the book ‘Valuation: Measuring and managing the value of companies’, second edition. The article
explained the concept of value-based management in detail.
Management accounting has undergone extensive change over the last few decades and several new
management approaches for improving organisational performance have emerged such as total quality
management, value engineering, empowerment, continuous improvement, reengineering,
Kaizen and team building. Some of these management approaches failed to significantly improve performance.
Failure in most of the instances was attributable to the fact that performance targets were not consistent with the
ultimate value objective (e.g. increasing shareholder value) or they were not clearly stated. Value-based
management (VBM) tackles this problem directly. It has coined a new and explicit performance metric: value.
The concept of value-based management (VBM) is very simple. The value of an organisation is determined by
the present value of its future cash flows. Value is created only when the return on investment surpasses the
cost of capital for an investment. VBM extends these fundamental concepts by focusing on how organisations
use them to make both major strategic and everyday operating decisions.
Properly executed, it is an approach to management that aligns a company’s overall aspirations, analytical
techniques and management processes to focus managerial decision-making on the key drivers of value.
Value-based management (VBM) focuses on the management of the organisation holistically. It emphasises the
creation of value as defined by the organisation’s stakeholders and the priorities set out by management. It
functions by implementing strategies and creating value through managing processes, activities, jobs,
employees and organisation structure.
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It uses analytical methods, financial and non-financial performance measures, computing / communication
technology in an integrated framework. A value creation mindset is the essence of value-based management.
It uses analytical methods, financial and non-financial performance measures, computing / communication
VBM uses management processes and systems to transform this mindset into action.
technology in an integrated framework. A value creation mindset is the essence of value-based management.
VBM uses management processes and systems to transform this mindset into action.
The presence of a value creation mindset is indicated by the fact that top management considers value
maximisation to be their ultimate financial objective and has clear decision criteria to identify when other
The presence of a value creation mindset is indicated by the fact that top management considers value
objectives (such as environmental goals and employment) should be given priority over the value-based
maximisation to be their ultimate financial objective and has clear decision criteria to identify when other
objective. Moreover, top management should have a clear, analytical understanding of which performance
objectives (such as environmental goals and employment) should be given priority over the value-based
variables drive the value of the company.
objective. Moreover, top management should have a clear, analytical understanding of which performance
variables drive the value of the company.
Management should have a clear understanding of whether focusing on revenue growth or cost reduction will
create maximum value and accordingly it should ensure that its strategy identifies the right option and focuses
Management should have a clear understanding of whether focusing on revenue growth or cost reduction will
resources in this area. Management processes and systems encourage all levels of managers to behave in a
create maximum value and accordingly it should ensure that its strategy identifies the right option and focuses
way that maximises the value of the organisation. VBM ensures that planning, target setting, performance
resources in this area. Management processes and systems encourage all levels of managers to behave in a
measurement and incentive systems are functioning effectively by closely linking the communication in these
way that maximises the value of the organisation. VBM ensures that planning, target setting, performance
areas with value creation.
measurement and incentive systems are functioning effectively by closely linking the communication in these
areas with value creation.
VBM methodology ensures that management clearly understands the performance variables (termed ‘key value
drivers’) that will actually create the value of the business. Such an understanding is essential because an
VBM methodology ensures that management clearly understands the performance variables (termed ‘key value
organisation cannot act directly on value. Instead, the organisation must act on those factors which it can
drivers’) that will actually create the value of the business. Such an understanding is essential because an
influence i.e. customer satisfaction, cost, and capital expenditures and so on. Moreover, it is through these
organisation cannot act directly on value. Instead, the organisation must act on those factors which it can
value drivers that top management is able to understand the rest of the organisation and to establish a dialogue
influence i.e. customer satisfaction, cost, and capital expenditures and so on. Moreover, it is through these
about what it expects to be accomplished.
value drivers that top management is able to understand the rest of the organisation and to establish a dialogue
about what it expects to be accomplished.
A value driver may be any variable that affects the value of the company. In order to be useful, however, value
drivers need to be organised so that managers can identify which have the greatest impact on value and assign
A value driver may be any variable that affects the value of the company. In order to be useful, however, value
responsibility for managing these variables to individuals who can help the organisation meet its targets.
drivers need to be organised so that managers can identify which have the greatest impact on value and assign
responsibility for managing these variables to individuals who can help the organisation meet its targets.
Value drivers must be defined elaborately to be consistent with the decision variables that are directly under the
control
of line must
management.
Generic
value to
drivers
such as sales
growth,
operating
margins
anddirectly
capital under
turnovers
Value drivers
be defined
elaborately
be consistent
with the
decision
variables
that are
the
might apply to most business units, but they are not specific and cannot be used effectively at the grass roots
control of line management. Generic value drivers such as sales growth, operating margins and capital turnovers
level.
might apply to most business units, but they are not specific and cannot be used effectively at the grass roots
level.
3. Pitfalls
3. Pitfalls
Value-based management is not without pitfalls. It can become an isolated exercise
operating managers at the front line or on the decisions that they make. Accordingly,
Value-based management is not without pitfalls. It can become an isolated exercise
creation may be defeated.
operating managers at the front line or on the decisions that they make. Accordingly,
creation may be defeated.
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
Discuss, in brief, the concept of value-based management (VBM).
Discuss, in brief, the concept of value-based management (VBM).
that has no effect on
the objective of value
that has no effect on
the objective of value
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7. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based
on business scenarios using:
vii. Shareholder value analysis
[Learning Outcome a]
Shareholder value analysis (SVA)
7.1 Introduction
The shareholder value analysis (SVA) approach was developed by Alfred Rappaport in the 1980s. It is used to
estimate the value of the shareholders’ interest or stake in a firm. It can also be used as the starting point for
formulating and evaluating strategic decisions. The value of the operations of a business is based on the
concept of free cash flows and is determined by discounting expected future operating free cash flows at the
cost of capital.
To determine shareholder value, the short-term securities and investments must be added to the business
valuation, and the debt amounts must be deducted from the business valuation.
7.2 Determining the free cash flow
Free cash flow reflects the cash flow from the operations of a business for a period. It is a measure of how much
cash a business generates after accounting for capital expenditures but before considering financing related
cash flows such as share issues, borrowings and payment of interest and dividends.
Deriving the free cash flow
Sales
Less: operating costs
Operating profits
Add: depreciation
Less: cash paid as tax on profits
Operating profits after tax
Less: investment in fixed capital
Less: investment in working capital
Free cash flow from operations
X
(X)
X
X
(X)
X
(X)
(X)
X
7.1 Determining the shareholder value
The value of a business can be determined by estimating the free cash flow for all future years.
The future cash flows are divided into two time periods:
1. cash flows from the specific planned period and
2. cash flows pertaining to the period beyond the planned period.
Thus,
Shareholder value = Business value less debt (at market value)
Business value = PV of free cash flows during planning horizon + PV of free cash flows after planning
horizon (“continuing value” or “terminal value”). The discount rate is the firm’s weighted average cost of capital
(WACC).
7.2 Increasing shareholder value
From the equation given in 7.1, it is clear that the shareholder value can increase either by increasing business
value or by reducing debt. Rappaport provides seven value drivers that affect shareholder value.
1. Sales growth rate: An increase in the annual growth rate in sales revenues during the planning period will
improve value as it increases free cash flow.
2. Operating profit margin: An improvement in the operating margin turns into profits.
3. Cash income tax rate: Any reduction in the tax rate improves shareholder value because a greater amount
of cash is conserved within the firm.
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4. Incremental fixed capital investment rate: If the business needs heavy investments in new capital assets
to grow, this will reduce the free cash flows and hence shareholder value. However, it also has the potential
to improve future performance and thus free cash flows.
5. Investment in working capital rate: Similarly, an increase in investments in inventories and receivables to
support growth will result in lower free cash flows. At the same time such increases to support growth can
improve cash flows in the future.
6. Planning period: If the firm can increase its competitive advantage period or the growth over a longer
period, it will have more number of years of free cash flows and hence result in a higher business value.
7. Cost of capital: This is the rate used to discount future free cash flows. The lower the cost of capital, the
higher is the present value of the cash flows and consequently higher is the business value.
In its mission to provide the maximum shareholder value, it becomes imperative for the firm to set these seven
drivers as objectives of managerial control mechanisms.
Karatasi Industries is a medium sized firm manufacturing various hand-made paper products. It expects a small
level of growth for four years into the future and does not foresee any significant improvement in its operating
profit margin. The company has the forecast value drivers as shown in the table given below.
These value drivers are used to forecast future cash flows expected by the company during the planning
horizon, which corresponds to its competitive advantage period, as shown in the table. Karatasi has a WACC of
10% and debt with a market value of Tshs850 million. Its sales were Tshs3300 million in 20X3. Determine the
shareholder value.
Forecast value drivers
(Amounts in Tshs’ million)
Actual
20X3
Sales growth%
Operating margin%
Sales/net book value of NCA
Working capital investment/sales
Cash tax rate%
Depreciation to net book value of NCA%
Planning horizon period
20X4 20X5 20X6 20X7
Future
20X8 onwards
9
9
7
5
3
0
13
13
13
13
13
13
3
3
3
3
3
3
15
15
15
15
15
15
35
35
35
35
35
35
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.3 Advantages of shareholder value analysis
1. It provides a long-term financial view, based on which strategic decisions can be made. A comparison can
be made on the expected value post strategy implementation with the value before implementation
2. The results are not skewed by the accounting policies adopted by the firm. It, therefore, has a wider
applicability across sectors and across national borders.
3. With the help of the seven key value drivers a sensitivity analysis can be made to fine tune the most
appropriate strategy. It helps in identifying the critical variables that affect shareholder value.
4. The organisation is forced to focus on the future, its customers and in particular, the value of future cash
flows.
7.4 Disadvantages of shareholder value analysis
1. Predicting the variables required in the analysis and estimating the future cash flows are difficult. This can
lead to incorrect or misleading assumptions being made in strategic decisions.
2. Development and implementation of the system can be long and complex.
3. Managing shareholder value depends on detailed information as compared to traditional measures.
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8. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based
on business scenarios using:
viii. Short- and long-term growth rates and terminal values
[Learning Outcome a]
Short- and long-term growth rates and terminal values
We have studied that the value of a firm is the present value of expected future cash flows generated by the
firm. Growth is a critical component of value in all valuations and therefore, this factor is taken into consideration
when an investment decision is made by investors.
There are three basic ways of estimating growth for any firm.
Historical growth rate or the growth in a firm’s past earnings. Usually, this is a convenient tool for
estimating growth for stable firms. However, there are severe drawbacks in using this growth rate for high
growth firms such as technology firms. In case of negative growth in a year, the historical growth rate cannot
be estimated accurately. Moreover, it may not be a reliable estimate, especially if the rate of growth cannot
be relied on as an estimate of expected future
Equity research analysts usually make a good estimate of growth for a firm and this can be made use of in
valuation. But in some sectors, such as technology, the growth estimates, especially over longer periods, are
not very reliable. Placing sole reliance on these growth estimates for a valuation can lead to incorrect and
inconsistent estimates.
A firm’s fundamentals: A firm’s growth is essentially determined by the quantum and quality of
reinvestments into new assets. An estimation of these factors helps in estimating a firm’s fundamental
growth rate. In addition, there are elements that are subjective, going into estimating growth such as the
quality of management and changes in the external environment.
We shall now discuss the various facets of the historical growth and terminal values, in detail:
1. Historical growth
There are a number of ways to estimate historical growth. The simplest are the
(a) Arithmetic mean and
(b) Geometric mean
Arithmetic mean is an average of the growth rates of the past, whereas the geometric mean refers to the
compounding that occurs from period to period.
The following are the EBIT figures of a firm for the last 6 years.
(Amounts in Tshs’ million)
Year
EBIT
Change%
20X1
250
20X2
273
9.20
20X3
295
8.06
20X4
303
2.71
20X5
318
4.95
327
2.83
20X6
1766.0
27.80
The average growth rate in EBIT for the firm, using arithmetic mean
=
27.80
5
= 5.6%
When the geometric mean is used, we get a growth rate of:
= 5 (9.20x8.06x2.71x4.95x2.83) = 4.8%
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A word of caution is needed here. When the value in the first period is negative, the growth rate cannot be
estimated. To overcome this issue, we can
Use the next period’s value as the denominator
Ignore the negative sign and use the absolute value
Make use of a linear regression model and divide the coefficient by the average earnings
2. The utility of historical growth
As we estimate growth in terms of a percentage the size of the firm gains importance. It is easier for a smaller
firm to show high growth in sales and earnings than for a larger, stable one.. Past growth rates may not be
good predictor for firms which are rapidly growing, as in such cases, firms may not register high growths.
In spite of this drawback, we can still incorporate information from historical growth into estimates of future
growth, by following a few guidelines.
(a) Consider revenue growth, rather than earnings growth to obtain a clue whether the growth rate can be
sustained in the future. Revenue growth is more stable than earnings growth and is much less likely to be
affected by accounting adjustments.
(b) Instead of considering the average growth over the last several years, look at the growth each year. This is
more relevant in order to know the changes in the growth pattern as the firm becomes bigger. This helps
when making projections for the future. It is prudent to use historical growth rates for projections only in the
next couple of years, since technology is changing rapidly and may affect future estimates.
(c) Look at the historical growth in the industry and that of some peers. This information is useful when
predicting the growth rates of the firm.
3. Analysts’ growth estimates
Several investors and others rely heavily on the analysts’ forecast or expected growth in the EPS over the next
five years. However, the analysis and information used in the estimate is very limited and the forecast accuracy
is quite low.
Research shows that analysts’ long run (i.e. the third year onwards) earnings growth forecasts are less accurate
than the forecasts of a naive “Random Walk” model. “Naive model” forecasts contain a lot of incremental
information about future earnings as compared to the analysts’ long-term forecasts in explaining future actual
earnings. The analysts’ long run earnings growth forecasts also vary substantially. Therefore, the analysts' longterm earnings forecasts should be used with caution.
Note: a “naive” forecasting model is a time series forecasting model that mostly focuses on the value of the
variable in the latest period to forecast a value for the variable in the next period in a time series.
4. The basic determinants of growth
Under the historical and analyst estimates, growth is an exogenous (independent) variable that affects value but
is not linked to the operating details of the firm. To make it more practical and useful is to make it endogenous
(dependent) variable. In other words, we should make growth a function of the quantum and the quality of the
reinvestments that a firm makes. We can estimate the growth of a firm under three situations.
A stable high return on capital that will continue for some time
An increasing positive return on capital over a period of time
A change in the margins of operating income over a period of time
Each of the above points is discussed in turn below:
(a) A stable high return on capital
A firm experiencing a stable return on capital can expect growth in operating income to come from the
reinvestment rate, i.e., the proportion of the after-tax operating income that is invested in net capital expenditure
and non-cash working capital, and the quality of these reinvestments, measured as the return on the capital
invested.
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Expected Growth in EBIT = Reinvestment Rate x Return on Capital
where,
Reinvestment Rate =
Return on Capital =
(Capital Expenditure - Depreciation + change in Non - cash WC)
EBIT(1- tax rate)
EBIT (1- tax rate)
capital invested
Reinvestment includes amounts incurred on acquisitions, R&D, new systems and initiatives and working capital.
The reinvestment rate measures the quantum of the investments made from the firm’s earnings to generate
future growth. The reinvestment rate is often calculated using the latest cash flow statement.
Although this is a sound method, it may not be useful where the quantum of reinvestments tends to vary
significantly year on year. In such cases an average of the reinvestments of the last three years or so is more
appropriate. For firms that have expanded significantly over the last few years, the historical reinvestment rate
may be higher than the expected future reinvestment rate. In this situation an industry average may appear to
be a better estimate.
The return on capital is usually calculated on the firm's return on capital on investments already made. The
book value of investments is considered to be the capital invested in these investments. The value considered
from the books of account may not reflect the actual value because:
(i) It reflects the historical cost of these assets and accounting decisions on depreciation. If the book value of
the capital invested is understated, the return on capital increases and when overstated, it reduces. This
problem is compounded if the value of R&D efforts and operating leases are ignored.
(ii) The operating income, like the book value of capital, is an accounting measure of the earnings made by a
firm during a period. The results are affected by accounting treatments to some items such as promotional
efforts on new products. These are treated as an item of expense in the books of account, whereas the
benefits may extend to the subsequent years also.
(iii) The return on capital on existing investments may not be the same as the incremental return on capital that
the firm may expect on new investments.
The reinvestment rate calculation for two firms is given below:
(Amounts in Tshs’ million)
Alpha
3700
(700)
3000
Gamma
1500
(800)
700
Adjusted EBIT
Tax rate 30%
EBIT after tax (B)
4700
1410
3290
4200
1260
2940
Reinvestment rate% (A/B)
91.2
23.8
Net capital expenditure
Change in working capital, except cash
Reinvestment (A)
Alpha reinvested a substantial amount of 91% of its after-tax operating income while Gamma reinvested about
24% of its after-tax operating income. These figures change significantly from year to year.
(b) Increasing positive return on capital
If the return on capital changes over time, an increase in return on capital will increase the expected growth rate
of the firm and vice versa.
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A firm currently has a rate of return on capital (ROC) of 13%. The previous year it was 10%. Its reinvestment
rate remains the same at 55%. Its expected growth rate will now be
= 0.13 x 0.55 +
(0.13 - 0.10)
0.10
= 7.15% +30% =37.15%
In effect, the improvement in the return on capital translates into an additional growth of 30% for the firm.
Firms that are likely to see their return on capital change over time include firms with record of poor returns on
capital. When they improve their operating efficiency and margins, their return on capital improves significantly.
In these firms, the expected growth rate will be much higher. Since the return on capital on these firms is low
before the changes, even a small increase in the ROC results in a sharp increase in the growth rate.
What types of firms are likely to see their return on capital change over time? One category would include firms
with poor returns on capital that improve their operating efficiency and margins, and consequently their return on
capital. In these firms, the expected growth rate will be much higher than the product of the reinvestment rate
and the return on capital. In fact, since the return on capital on these firms is usually low before the turn-around,
small changes in the return on capital translate into big changes in the growth rate. Thus, an increase in the
return on capital on existing assets of 1% to 2% doubles the earnings (resulting in a growth rate of 100%).
The other category would include firms that have very high returns on capital on their existing investments but
are likely to see these returns slip as competition enters the business, not only on new investments but also on
existing investments.
As new competitors enter an industry, the existing firms that have very high ROC may experience a drop in the
returns. This drop will be experienced both in new and existing investments.
(c) Change in operating margins over a period of time
For firms that have been incurring losses, the reinvestment rate may also be negative. To estimate the growth
rates in such firms seeking a turnaround, initially the revenue growth has to be estimated. A forecast is then
made of the operating margins for the future. In case the expected margins in future years are positive, the
operating income will also turn positive, facilitating the use of traditional valuation approaches in valuing these
firms. The reinvestment rate should be estimated to know the quantum of reinvestment needed to generate
revenue growth.
The rate of growth in revenues will decrease over a period of time. A firm with a turnover of Tshs200 million can
easily grow to Tshs2000 million. But for a large firm having a turnover of Tshs100 billion, a tenfold growth will be
difficult
5. Sales growth forecasts
The effect of compounded growth rates in revenues over time can be huge, even though the annual rate of
growth appears to be low. While projecting growth rates, the growth in market shares must also be kept in mind.
If the projected growth leads to a very high market share, say 80%, there must be a rethink on the numbers.
There must be an alignment between revenue growth and operating margins. A firm trying to grow aggressively
and achieve high market shares cannot expect to be successful by simultaneously projecting high margins.
A comprehensive set of assumptions is needed regarding the nature of competition, capacity constraints,
resource constraints and so on.
6. Operating margin forecasts
For firms to generate value, the higher revenues have to result in positive earnings. For this to be happen,
positive operating margins must be achieved in the future. Although for a start-up firm, the operating margins
may be initially negative, it cannot continue in that mode for long. The operating margin must become positive
as it matures. One way of estimating the margin is to consider the industry margin as a starting point. The firm
has to make plans to improve the margins from the current to the one desired level.
Usually, improvements in margins are higher in the initial years and then decline as the firm reaches a stable
(maturity) stage.
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7. Sales to capital ratio
A one- time investment in the business is not adequate for a firm to achieve continuous growth. Firms have to
invest to generate both revenue growth and positive operating margins in future years. The investment can be in
tangible assets such as plant and equipment, acquisitions of other businesses, research and development and
investments in logistics, marketing and additional working capital.
The sales-to-capital ratio provide a simple way to assess the incremental investment needs to achieve the
projected revenue growth. The reinvestment needs in any year is estimated by dividing the projected revenue
growth (in value) by the sales to capital ratio.
To estimate the sales to capital ratio historically, the change in revenue each year is divided by the reinvestment
made that year. Another way is to consider the industry average ratio of sales to book capital invested.
Metro Projects Ltd expects its revenues to grow by Tshs 20 billion. It has a sales-to-capital ratio of
3.5.
Therefore, the firm would need to reinvest 20/3.5 = Tshs 5.71 billion if it wants to achieve the targeted sales
increase.
One way of knowing whether the sales to investment ratio is either under or overestimated the corresponding
return on capital for the year can be observed. If this is consistent or increasing, the investments are adequate.
8. The terminal value
We have already discussed the concept of terminal value earlier. We know that a firm potentially has infinite life.
However, we cannot make a forecast for such long periods. Iif we do not consider the results of the long term
operations, it would imply that the firm discontinued operating at the end of the projection period. As it is not
practical to estimate cash flows forever, the usual practice is to estimate cash flows for a “growth period” until it
reaches the stable stage and then add an estimated terminal value that captures the value at the end of the
period
The terminal value can be identified in two ways:
(a) Liquidation value: it is very useful when assets are discrete and marketable.
(b) Multiple approach: It is easy to use. However, this makes it a relative valuation. Multiplier of some income
or cash flow measure, such as net income, net operating profit, EBITDA, operating cash flow or free cash
flow can be used. The choice of the multiple depends upon how comparable firms are valued by the market.
Multipliers based on a recent sale or acquisition of a comparable business can prove useful.
Seko Tech was set up a few years ago. Its business is likely to stabilise five years from now. In year 5 it has
projected a free cash flow of Tshs 32.500 billion and a price to free cash flow per share of 16.
The terminal value of the firm at the end of year 5 is Tshs 32,500billion X 16 = Tshs 487.500
billion
9.
Stable growth model: This is the best approach and technically, the soundest. However, several
assumptions such as when the firm reaches a stable state, the excess returns that it may earn during the
period rate and that it can sustain such growth forever have to be made.
When a firm’s cash flows grow at a constant rate perpetually, the present value of those cash flows is:
Value =
where,
expected cash flow next period
(r - g)
r = discount rate (cost of equity or cost of capital)
g = expected growth rate
Business Analysis:
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This constant growth rate is the stable growth rate). This rate cannot be higher than the rate of growth of the
economy in which the firm operates. In case the stable growth rate is negative, the terminal value will be lower,
and the firm will cease to operate over time.
In case a firm reaches the stable growth stage, the formula to estimate the terminal value of the cash flows
beyond that point is used.
The following information about Nero Ltd is available:
Normalised EBIT is Tshs 600 million; the tax rate is 35%. The long-term growth rate projected for the company
is 3% and the WACC is 13%. The expected return on new investments is 16%.
Required:
Calculate the terminal value.
9. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based
on business scenarios using:
ix. Economic profit methods
[Learning Outcome, a]
Economic profit methods
An economic profit method is more popularly known as the “economic value added” (EVA). EVA is trade
marked by Stern Stewart, a consulting firm in the U.S. and is a tool to measure the financial performance of an
TM
organisation. As it is trademarked, the generic term “economic profit” method is used instead. EVA is one of
the most popular measures that have been developed which align the interests of equity shareholders with
organisational performance.
Economic profit is calculated by deducting a capital charge from the adjusted operating income. The basic
premise of economic profit is that, only when the profits exceed the cost of capital , the managers’ actions add
economic value.
TM
The concept of EVA is quite similar to the concept of residual income (RI) used in traditional accounting
TM
system. Like the RI, the EVA is an excellent indicator of performance.
The primary goal of an organisation is to maximise shareholder value. The economic profit or EVA
managerial tool used for measuring the “value added” to the shareholders’ worth by the business.
TM
EVA
TM
is a
= Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) - cK
where:
NOPAT = Operating Profit – Taxes
c = weighted average cost of capital
K = capital employed
Since the economic profit is a measure of surplus value created on an investment, another way to present the
value-added equation is:
(return on capital - cost of capital) (capital invested in the project/firm)
Where:
the return on capital (ROC) is the “true” cash flow return on capital earned on an investment the cost of
capital is the weighted average of the costs of the different financing instruments used to finance the investment
(WACC)
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TM
9.1 The basic premise of EVA
Businesses are expected to create value for their investors. Investors expect a minimum level of profitability,
called the capital charge. Capital charge refers to the average of the equity returns on equity markets. With
diversified, long-term equity market investment, investors can easily earn this return.
Earning lower returns (in the long run) than the capital charge is economically not acceptable (especially from a
shareholders’ perspective). Investors can also take their money away from the firm since they have other
investment alternatives.
TM
Adjustments required for calculating EVA
NOPAT is arrived at after making certain adjustments to the accounting profit. Also, certain changes are
required to calculate the correct WACC.
The most common adjustments made to accounting profit and capital employed for calculating EVA
Particulars
Non-cash expenses
charged to SOCI
Accounting profit
Add back
Capital employed
No effect
Intangibles such as
advertising, research
and development
Add back
Add
Depreciation /
Amortisation /
Goodwill
Add back.
Accounting
depreciation must
be added back
and economic
depreciation must
be deducted.
Add back
Add the cumulative
amount of
depreciation /
amortisation /
goodwill charged on
the assets in use.
Add
Add debt and leases
to net assets
Provisions such as
for bad and doubtful
debts, deferred tax.
Interest
Add
TM
are:
Reason
NOPAT is the earnings that a
company can distribute among
providers of funds.
Funds spent on intangibles can be
considered discretionary spending
by management. These funds could
have been used to pay dividends or
to reduce the amount of debt in the
firm’s SOFP.
Management, instead of acquiring
assets, could have repaid the funds
to the shareholders.
Economic depreciation must be
deducted because it represents the
funds actually consumed by the
business.
They are charged to the net profit
due to the conventional accounting
practices.
Provisions undermine the reported
net profit and reduce the amount of
capital employed.
Non-addition of debt will affect the
managers’ decision on the capital
structure of the firm. The managers
will substitute equity capital with
TM
debt capital to increase the EVA .
From the following information on Select Ltd, calculate the NOPAT as adjusted for EVA.
Sales revenue
Less: Operating costs
Less: Interest costs
Earnings before tax
Less: Tax @35%
Earnings after tax
Tshs’ million
80.0
(48.0)
(2.0)
30.0
(10.5)
19.5
Continued on the next page
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Answer
NOPAT as adjusted for EVA
Sales revenue
Less: Operating costs
Earnings before interest and tax
Less: Tax @35%
Operating profit after tax (as adjusted)
Tshs’ million
80.0
(48.0)
32.0
(11.2)
20.8
(i.e. NOPAT for the EVA calculation)
TM
Calculation of EVA
Eagle Telecommunication System (ETS) is a manufacturer of well-known branded mobile phones, L75 and L89.
ETS is considering evaluation of the management’s performance. The following information has been extracted
from the records maintained by ETS.
Statement of profit or loss (income statement) for the year ended 31 December 20X8
Sales revenue
Less:
Cost of sales
Administration expenses
Selling and distribution expenses
Goodwill written off R & D
expenditure Advertisement
expenditure Interest
payable
Profit before tax
Income Tax (30%)
Profit after tax
L75
Tshs’ million
675
L89
Tshs’ million
825
219
20
27
53
81
88
11
176
(53)
123
268
25
33
65
100
18
316
(95)
221
Statement of financial position (Balance Sheet) as at 31 December 20X8
Non-current assets
Current assets:
Receivables
Inventory
Less: Current liabilities
Payables
Net current assets
Long term loan
Net assets
Shareholders' funds
Share capital (Tshs1500 per share)
Reserves
L75
Tshs’ million
L75
Tshs’ million
445
200
300
500
(225)
L89
Tshs’ million
L89
Tshs’ million
625
280
420
700
275
(127)
593
440
153
593
(316)
384
(175)
834
550
284
834
Continued on the next page
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Other information is provided as below:
1. Rate of corporation tax is 30%.
2. Rate of interest on long term loans (before tax) is 12% and cost of equity is 18% in 20X8. Capital structure
is 60% equity and 40% debt.
3. Economic value of research and development expenditure for L75 is Tshs 155 million. The advertisement
expenditure for L75 and L89 is Tshs million105 and Tshs million250 respectively.
4. 100% of goodwill written is off against reserves on an acquisition made by the company in 20X8.
5. Current market value per equity share is Tshs 3000.
Required:
Calculate the Economic value added (EVA) of ETS for 20X8 stating your assumptions clearly.
Adjusted statement of profit or loss (income statement) for the year ended 31 December 20X8
Profit before tax
Add back:
Goodwill written off
R & D expenditure
Advertisement expenditure
Interest payable
Less: Taxation
Adjusted profit
L75
Tshs’ million
176.00
L89
Tshs’ million
316.00
53.00
81.00
88.00
11.00
409.00
56.30
352.70
65.00
100.00
18.00
499.00
100.40
398.60
Note:
Model L75
Tax on interest payment Tshs million3.3 (Tshs million11 x 30% = Tshs million3.3) is deducted from the profit
before tax. Therefore, the total tax paid is Tshs 5 6 . 3 million (Tshs 53million + Tshs 3 . 3 million) deducted
from profit before tax.
Model L89
Tax on interest payment Tshs 5.4million (Tshs 18million x 30% = Tshs 5.4million) is deducted from the profit
before tax. Therefore, the total tax paid is Tshs 100.4million (Tshs 95million + Tshs 5.4million) deducted from
profit before tax.
Adjusted capital employed for the year ended 31 December 20X8
Shareholders' funds
Share capital
Reserves
Add:
Long term loan
Goodwill
R & D expenditure
Advertisement expenditure
Adjusted capital employed
L75
Tshs’ million
L75
Tshs’ million
L89
Tshs’ million
440
153
593
127
53
155
105
440
1,033
L89
Tshs’ million
550
284
834
175
65
250
490
1,324
Continued on the next page
Business Analysis:
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Weighted average cost of capital is calculated as follows:
Weighted average cost of capital
Market value of equity (note)
Market value of debt
L75
Tshs’ million
880
127
L89
Tshs’ million
1,100
175
Share capital (Tshs1500 per share), given in question = Tshs 440 million
Number of shares = Tshs million 440/1500 = 293,333 shares
Current market price per share = Tshs3000
dŚĞƌĞĨŽƌĞ͕ƚŚĞƚŽƚĂůŵĂƌŬĞƚǀĂůƵĞŽĨĞƋƵŝƚLJсϮϵϯ͕ϯϯϯƐŚĂƌĞƐdždƐŚƐϯϬϬϬсdƐŚƐϴϴϬŵŝůůŝŽŶ
LJĂƉƉůLJŝŶŐ the same method, you can calculate the market value of equity for L89 which is Tshs million1,100
t
Where Ke = Cost of equity
<ĚсŽƐƚŽĨĚĞďƚ
sĞсDĂƌŬĞƚǀĂůƵĞŽĨĞƋƵŝƚLJ
sĚсDĂƌŬĞƚǀĂůƵĞŽĨĚĞďƚ
dсŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞƚĂdžĂƚŝŽŶ
For model L75
t
WACC = (0.8739 x 0.18) + (0.1261 x 0.084)
= 16.79%
For model L89
t
WACC = (0.8627 x 0.18) + (0.1373 x 0.084)
= 16.68%
Alternatively, one can calculate WACC using the 60:40 capital structures as given. It will be accepted. The
observations may change due to this.
Economic value added:
Model L75
EVA = Adjusted profit - (Adjusted capital employed x WACC)
= Tshs 352.70million – (Tshs million1,033 x 16.79%)
= Tshs 179.26million
Model L89
EVA = Adjusted profit - (Adjusted capital employed x WACC)
= Tshs 398.60million – (Tshs million1,324 x 16.68%)
= Tshs 177.76million
Continued on the next page
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Note: the following adjustments are made while calculating adjusted profit and capital employed:
The goodwill of Tshs 53million and Tshs 65million is an investment in the future and adds value to the
company, therefore it is added back to the profit before tax and added in the capital employed.
Since research and development expenditure of Tshs 81million is a capital expenditure, it is added back to
the profit.
Advertisement expenses of Tshs 88million and Tshs 100million are added back to the profit because these
are investment expenses and related to the acquisition of assets.
R & D expenditure and advertisement expenses are of a capital nature and these are incurred for future
benefits. Therefore, the economic value of this expenditure is added in the capital employed.
Interest payable is considered in calculation of notional interest charge. If it is deducted from the profit
available for the shareholder as an expense, double effect will be given. Therefore, it is added back to the
profit.
TM
9.2 Assessing corporate performance using EVA
TM
Although usually used to measure corporate performance from the viewpoint of shareholders, the EVA can
also be used as a yardstick to measure the performance of individual managers / departments on frequent
TM
basis. EVA allows the lenders of funds to determine how efficiently the managers are using the funds
TM
provided by them. The higher the EVA during any period, the better the job managers are doing in using the
capital to create additional value.
TM
It can be said that a manager / division / company failing to generate EVA (i.e. when the NOPAT is less than
the cost of capital employed) has failed to create any value for its shareholders.
Radiant Inc has two divisions, division S and division M, which are managed by two different managers. The
following information is related to their performance for the year ending on 31/12/20X0.
Total operating assets (as on 31/12/20X0)
Revenue
Expenses
Division S
Tshs’000
100,000
107,000
87,000
Division M
Tshs’000
80,000
90,000
70,000
The minimum rate of return on investments for Radiant Inc is 12.5%.
The applicable corporate taxation rate is 35%.
Expenses include interest payable on 10% debentures worth Tshs50,million in division S and interest payable
on an 11% loan worth Tshs10 million in division M.
EVA
TM
can be used to measure the performance of the managers.
TM
NOPAT and adjusted capital employed are required to calculate EVA .
Details
Revenue
Less: Operating expenses
Earnings before tax (EBT)
Less: Taxation @ 35%
NOPAT
Division S
Tshs’000
107,000
82,000
25,000
8,750
16,250
Division M
Tshs’000
90,000
68,900
21,100
7,385
13,715
Continued on the next page
Business Analysis:
Valuation:
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TM
EVA
For division S
EVA = NOPAT – cost of capital
= Tshs’ million16.250 (100.000 x 12.5%)
= Tshs’ million16.250 – Tshs’ million12.500
= Tshs’ million 3.750
For division M
EVA = NOPAT – cost of capital
= Tshs’ million13.715 - (80.000 x 12.5%)
= Tshs’ million13.715 – Tshs’ million10.000
= Tshs’ million3.715
Conclusion
TM
According to EVA , division S is performing better than division M.
TM
9.3 Advantages and disadvantages of EVA
TM
1. Advantages of EVA
TM
(a) EVA is a true indicator of the actual wealth created for the shareholders by the company. This is because
this method calculates the value of an organisation after considering a charge for the use of capital made by
that organisation. Therefore, it is a better measure of divisional performance.
(b) Since it does not take figures directly from the accounting information but instead makes certain adjustments
to the calculation to make it more justifiable, it is a good measure for performance evaluation.
(c) The decision taken is based on the cash flows and therefore there is a lower possibility of the decision being
affected by the accounting policies.
(d) It is simple to understand and therefore widely used.
(e) It is widely used to evaluate the performance of managers and divisions.
2. Disadvantages of EVA
(a) It is complex to calculate. This is because it does not take the figures of profit and cost of capital directly
from the accounting information, but instead makes certain adjustments to these figures.
(b) Since the decision taken is based on historical information, it does not consider the future flow.
TM
(c) EVA uses CAPM to estimate the weighted average cost of capital, which itself is based upon various
assumptions which may not hold true in reality.
TM
(d) EVA
TM
is not good for comparison since it does not consider the size of the organisation / division.
(e) EVA is a calculation of historic value addition and does not take into consideration the future flows and
TM
other estimates. Therefore EVA cannot be used to make decisions about the future.
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SUMMARY
The following are the details from the income statements (SOCI) of division Select and division Choice for the
year ending March 20X7.
Sales
Sales revenue
revenue
Operating
Operating cost
cost
Interest
Interest cost
cost
Capital
Capital invested
invested
(including debt)
WACC
corporate tax
10%
40%
Tshs’000
100,000
100,000
64,000
64,000
6,000
6,000
122,000
122,000
Tshs’000
120,000
120,000
75,000
75,000
10,000
10,000
150,000
150,000
12.5% Rate of
44%
(Assume that the economic and accounting depreciation are the same.)
Required:
Calculate NOPAT as adjusted for EVA and EVA for both the divisions.
10. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based
on business scenarios using:
x. Cash flow return on investment
[Learning Outcome a]
Cash flow return on investment
The long-term value, or intrinsic value, of an equity stock is primarily determined by a firm’s ability to generate
growing cash flow on a sustained basis. The key to investment success is to have a sound, disciplined means of
analysing and monitoring cash flow growth. The cash flow return on investment (CFROI) has become a popular
value-based management technique.
One of the reasons for its popularity is the fact that all the information needed to calculate CFROI is available
publicly in the published financial reports. The fact that it is adjusted for inflation allows for a more realistic
comparison over time.
Unlike the traditional methods of valuing a firm based on corporate performance and earnings, the CFROI uses
the cash flows of the firm to value it. This rate of return measure compares the cash generated by a firm and the
cash invested in it. It is the internal rate of return the firm earns on its existing investments, based on real cash
flows. This is compared to the cost of capital to determine whether the firm is adding value.
BusinessAnalysis:
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We calculate the CFROI for a firm using four inputs.
1. The gross investment (GI) the firm has in its existing assets. This is arrived at by adding back accumulated
depreciation, operating leased assets and similar off SOFP assets, and net deferred tax assets to the book
value of the assets. It is also adjusted for inflation.
2. The gross cash flow (GCF) earned in the current year on that asset. This is the sum of the after-tax
operating income of a firm and adjustments for the rentals on operating leases and rent expenses.
3. The expected life of the assets (n) in place at the time of the original investment, which reflects the
earning life of the investments in question.
4. The expected salvage value (SV) of the assets at the end of this life (including land, buildings etc),
calculated at current values.
A firm had Tshs100 billion worth of assets. If it consistently generated Tshs10 billion in cash flow annually, its
CFROI would be 10%. If the asset was 10 years old and had been depreciated on the firm’s SOFP (balance
sheet) to a Tshs50 billion value, the return would double to 20% (10billion/50billion). This would not be a true
reflection of the return that would be generated if the asset had been added at today’s cost
10.1 Calculating the CFROI
The steps to be followed in determining the CFROI of a firm are:
1. Determine the average life of the asset remaining. Then convert the accounting profit to real operating cash
flow for the period (actual / forecasts) by adjusting for non-cash and non-operating items.
2. Adjust the SOFP (balance sheet) values of assets to their full historical by adding back the accumulated
depreciation. This figure is the historical cost. The assets at historical cost are multiplied by an appropriate
inflation factor to arrive at the current cost of the assets. Any off-balance sheet assets, such as operating
lease assets are added to give “gross assets at current cost”.
3. Determine the rate of return (IRR) at which the present value of the projected real operating cash flows,
plus the terminal value of non-depreciating assets (land and working capital), would equal the gross asset
value calculated in step two.
The CFROI in excess of a firm’s cost of capital indicates that the firm has created shareholder value. Usually the
CFROI is calculated each year and the trends are analysed over a medium-term period.
Information extracted from the forecasts of Agin Industries for the next year, 20X4 are:
Net Income
Depreciation
Interest Expense
Rental Expense
Tshs’ billion
110
30
10
5
The net income in the subsequent four years is expected to be 140,180, 155 and 125 (all in Tshs billion)
respectively. The other adjustments will remain unchanged over the years. Other data related to the assets are
also given below. The column “adjusted for inflation” provides the current values of the respective assets.
Monetary current assets
Inventories
Land
Gross plant assets
Leased property
Non capitalised assets (current)
Tshs’ billion
Adjusted for
Historical
inflation
175
175
98
75
50
85
348
170
80
80
210
Required:
Calculate the CFROI. If the firm’s cost of capital is10%, is the firm creating value for its shareholders? The
expected salvage value of land and other assets at the end of year 5 is Tshs210 billion
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10.2 CFROI and valuation
Apart from being a measure of performance, CFROI can also be used to determine the value of a firm. It is
based on the model developed by Modigliani and Miller. The value of a firm comprises the sum of:
1. The present value of cash flows from existing assets
Investments already made in the firm for assets have a finite life. The cash flows from the use of these assets
will “wind down” over the productive life of the assets. If the firm wants to survive, it has to reinvest in newer
assets to continue growth.
2. The present value of cash flows from future investments
The value of future investments is dependent on the rate of return on incremental investments and the rate of
growth in assets. Incremental assets which generate cash flow returns greater than the cost of capital create
value for the firm and generate a positive value of future investments. Existing assets of a firm have a finite life.
The cash flows from these assets reduce over the life of the depreciating assets CFROI determines the
contribution to value made by existing assets by breaking down the asset base into several discrete projects
and calculating the respective cash flows of each project. Therefore, the present value of existing assets is a
function of the CFROI, the invested capital base, the historic growth in the asset base, the balance asset life,
the proportion of non-depreciating assets and the cost of capital.
The same principle is followed in the valuation of future investments. The cash flows depend on the incremental
cash flow returns generated by an increase in the asset base. The rates of return and growth depend on the
competitive lifecycle and mean reversion. A firm whose CFROI is higher than average, will gradually fade
toward the market norm because of competitive pressures. The rate of fade is determined partly by the volatility
of the company's historic CFROI levels. Firms earning below the average will be forced to fade back up to the
average because investors will not support firms with below average returns. In the absence of the muchneeded capital, these firms will either have to restructure and grow or go out of business.
These principles enable the firm to forecast returns and growth. The discounting rate applied to find the present
value of future investments depends upon the incremental returns, the growth in the asset base, the fade rate
and the fade period of returns and growth.
The CFROI approach to forecasting returns and growth enables the firm to surmount the drawbacks of most
DCF models where the assumptions on the terminal value changes the valuation significantly.
10.3 Advantages of CFROI
1. CFROI compares the cash flows after adjusting for inflation with the inflation-adjusted gross cash investment.
It is neither distorted by the effect of inflation nor by depreciation.
2. Unlike most measures, it takes into account the economic life of the firm’s depreciable assets and a residual
value of all other assets.
3. CFROI and ROI are expressed in percentages. However, unlike ROI, CFROI overcomes the distortions
created by the accounting treatment as it is based on cash flows. Moreover, CFROI takes considers the
present value of money, inflation adjustments, and depreciation charges, whereas ROI does not.
4. Both EVA and CFROI motivate management to create value by earning returns on invested capital that are
greater than the cost of capital.
5. Comparisons of firms with varying asset structure, including international companies are possible. As it is
adjusted for inflation, comparisons over time are also possible.
6. It can be used to value private firms and strategic business units.
10.4 The drawbacks of CFROI
1. CFROI is very complex to calculate.
2. As it uses the IRR, the arguments against IRR also apply here.
3. Determining the appropriate inflation adjustment to apply to assets necessitates an estimation to be made of
the average age of assets and an inflation factor.
4. The time period to determine the life of assets over which CFROI is calculated, is subjective
© GTG
Business Analysis: 211
Business Valuation: 143
11. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based
on business scenarios using:
xi. Total shareholder return
[Learning Outcome a]
Total shareholder return (TSR)
Total shareholder return or “holding period return” (HPR) as it is sometimes called, is the return a shareholder
earns over a specified period of time. Board members, the managers, analysts and investors regularly look
at total returns to shareholders as an important metric of value creation. Many investors consider only the stock
price movements without taking into account the value of dividends which have been paid.
Total shareholder return (TSR) over a period is defined as the net stock price change plus the dividends paid
during that period. Even though it may be possible for a stock to show a reduction in the market price over a
period, say a year, it could still show a positive total shareholder return in case the dividend paid exceeds the
decline in the share price. At times, however, many companies do not pay high dividends and the yields are low.
In such cases, it is the share price which drives the TSR.
TSR over a period
TSR is therefore, the annualised return to shareholders, including all stock price changes and reinvestment of
dividends. It includes the effect of bonus issues and splits. This figure is calculated pre-tax
The returns are calculated without reference to the sales or profits of the firm. TSR is a result of capital gains on
shares and dividends.
An investor bought 100 shares of Rubicon Metals @ Tshs1560 per share on April 1 20X3. During the year, he
received a dividend of Tshs135 per share. On March 31, 20X4, the price of Rubicon on the Dar es Salaam stock
exchange was Tshs1775. Calculate the TSR for the year.
TSR =
(1775 - 1560) + 135
1560
= 22.44%
The TSR can be broken into its two components, the capital gain and the dividend yield.
Capital gain =
(1775 - 1560)
Dividend yield =
1560
=
215
1560
= 13.78%
135
= 8.65%
1560
11.1 Treatment of dividends
The manner of treating dividends in the calculation of TSR is an important issue. As soon as the ex-dividend
period begins, the share price drops to adjust for the dividend. As the next dividend date comes nearer, the
share price may gradually rise in anticipation of the dividend.
The four dates one has to remember in relation to dividends are:
1. Declaration date
The date on which a dividend payment is announced by a firm is known as the declaration date. The declaration
is usually done via a press release, a few weeks before the actual payment of the dividend.
144
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Business Valuation
Analysis Concepts and Applications
© GTG
2. Ex-dividend date
After the record date (explained below) has been determined, then the ex-dividend date is determined, which is
a couple of working days before the record date.. In case an investor purchases share prior to the ex-dividend
date, he is eligible to receive the dividend payment. However, if he buys the shares on or after the ex-dividend
date, then he cannot expect to receive the dividend just announced.
3. Record or closure date
The record date is the date on which the company freezes the transfer of shares in order to finalise the list of
investors who appear as shareholders in the company’s books. Investors appearing in the members’ register
will be entitled to receive the dividend.
4. Payment date
This is the date on which the company pays dividend to the shareholders listed in the members’ register on the
closure date. It is necessary to ensure that the ex-dividend date is considered for calculation of the TSR and
assume that dividends are re-invested on the ex-dividend date, as it is the date that a dividend is crystallised.
The term, “dividend” is used to refer to not only regular dividend payments but also special payments. Examples
of such payments include buyback of shares and any cash payments to shareholders.
11.2 Managing high TSR
We know that the main objective of an enterprise is to maximise the enterprise wealth and as a consequence,
shareholder wealth. It is not the maximisation of profits that is important. It is easy to understand that when a
firm follows a strategy that results in a high TSR growth over a period, it is in fact maximising shareholder
wealth. The firm constantly is on the lookout for strategies, plans, ideas and opportunities that will help increase
the company’s warranted value per share.
Attempts to maximise earning per share (EPS) either in the short or the long term is not a wise path to follow.
However, when a firm tries to manage a high TSR performance, it automatically ends up in a high EPS growth
for the firm. This is made possible because a lot of management time and resources are invested in valuecreating efforts. This results in greater competitive and financial strength and ensures that the firm’s future is
secure.
11.3 TSR and executive compensation
As TSR is an important metric for investors to rate an organisation’s performance, it is not surprising that it has
become a fundamental metric for a “pay for performance” executive compensation system in several
organisations. Pay and performance are aligned when total compensation is both, comparable to competitors
and sensitive to performance. Paying high compensation to managers paid does not necessarily mean they are
overpaid. Many a time, it is not the level of pay that is a problem but its lack of alignment with performance. The
yardstick to measure performance is a sustained TSR.
After the long period of global economic crisis, shareholders are keen that organisations have a closer link
between executive pay and performance compared to what is provided by traditional stock options or timevested restricted stock. However, an equity vehicle becoming very popular in many countries and especially the
US is the Relative Total Shareholder Return (R-TSR). These plans are performance-based equity awards that
link pay-out to the company’s share price return vis-à-vis a set of comparable companies.
A good Relative TSR plan:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Does not emphasise much on the immediate increase in the share price as compared to the traditional
stock options. It lays more emphasis on a sustained performance over a period of time (e.g., 30-90 day
average stock price)
Does not affect the executive adversely unlike the traditional stock options. It is not dependent on the price
of the firm’s share alone but is related to the performance of peer firms. The pay-out may be reduced not
by the reduction in the firm’s share price but only if the rate of the share price decline is greater than the
comparable firms in a falling market.
Supports a high pay-for-performance by aligning it to a KPI, which is to be equal to or be higher than the
comparable firm’s share returns
Is very transparent as it makes use of publicly available daily share price closing data. There is no
subjectivity involved
Is very easy to account for.
Business Analysis:
Valuation:213
145
Business
© GTG
11.4 The advantages and drawbacks of TSR
1. Advantages
(a) TSR is an easily understood figure of the overall financial benefits generated for shareholders.
(b) The figure can be interpreted as a measure of how the market evaluates the overall performance of a
company over a specified period.
(c) As it is a relative measure, expressed as a percentage, the figures are readily comparable between firms
operating in the same industry.
(d) A relative TSR can be integrated into the executive performance and compensation plan. This acts as a
great motivator for the managers to achieve a sustained growth over the years.
2. Disadvantages
1.
TSR ignores the risk associated with the growth and investment, e.g. a company might decide to take very
high risks in order to achieve a high return. Another firm, however, might pursue a path of not taking many
risks and earn a lower return. Comparisons in such cases are difficult. The evaluation depends upon the
risk attitudes of the shareholders.
2. TSR calculations are possible only at the company level, but not for measuring the divisional performance.
3.
The calculation does not take into account the future performance and is not “forward looking”. It only
reflects the past overall return to shareholders.
4.
TSR is externally focused as it only considers the market’s perception of performance; it is therefore,
subject to adverse impacts if the share price of a fundamentally strong company falls sharply in the short
term.
5.
The results depend very much upon the base year (for the opening share price) being considered. A low
opening share price skews the performance significantly. Even a moderate improvement in the share price,
appears to be a very high level of performance in percentage terms.
The current market price of an equity share of Matunda Industries is Tshs1267. A year ago the price was
Tshs 1010. There were no dividends paid during the year.
In this case the TSR is
1,267
1,010
= 25.4%.
The share price of another company in the same industry is Tshs 5074. A year ago, it quoted at 4375.
Ignore dividends.
5,074
The TSR in this case is
= 15.98%, although the share price has increased by Tshs 699 as compared to
4,375
Tshs 257 of Matunda.
Andrew Chiligati is an avid investor. He has been following his investment in 100 shares of NYPar, a German
firm which went public in March of 20X1. When he purchased his 100 shares, at a price of €20.00 per share, the
euro was trading at Tshs 1949/€. Currently the share is trading at €28.00 per share, and the Tanzanian currency
has fallen to Tshs2152 /€. As the company is focused on growth, it has preferred to plough back its profits and
has therefore, not paid any dividends.
Required:
(a) If Andrew sold his shares today, what is the change (in percentage) in the share price he would receive? (b)
Calculate the percentage change in the value of euro versus the Tanzanian shillings over the same period. (c)
What is the total return that Andrew earns on his shares if he sold them at these rates?
146
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Business Valuation
Analysis Concepts and Applications
© GTG
12. Evaluate and assess the value of businesses and shareholder value giving advice based
on business scenarios using:
xii. Market value added
[Learning Outcome a]
Market value added
A company’s total market value is the sum of the market values of the company’s equity and debt. Market value
added (MVA) is the difference between the total market value of the company and the capital used by the
company. The capital refers to the funds used by the company for its operations i.e. the working capital and
non-current assets of the company. MVA is used to measure how much wealth a company has added or
subtracted during a particular period.
12.1 Assessing performance using market value added
An external measure of an organisation’s performance, MVA represents the stock market’s assessment of the
net present value (NPV) of all the past and projected capital investments of an organisation, from a particular
point of time. An organisation’s performance can be assessed by measuring the changes in its MVA from
one date to another.
A company creates value when the MVA is positive i.e. when the company’s market value exceeds the capital
invested in it.
A negative MVA is a sign that management is unable to efficiently manage the capital available with it.
The following formula is used to calculate MVA:
MVA = MV– K
Where,
MVA is market value added.
MV is the market value of the firm, including the value of the firm's equity and debt.
K is the capital invested in the firm.
1. Affable Ltd and Affliction Ltd are two companies solely financed by equity capital with market capitalisation
of Tshs 200 billion each on 1/01/20X0. During the year:
2. Affable Ltd raised Tshs10 billion through a right issue and invested the new funds in a project that is
expected to add Tshs 35 billion to the present value of its future earnings.
3. Affliction Ltd raised Tshs 75 billion through a rights issue and invested the new funds in a project that is
expected to add Tshs 55 billion to the present value of its future earnings.
Calculation of the market value added (MVA) by both the companies
Particulars
Market capitalisation at the beginning of the year
Addition to present value of earnings stream
Total market capitalisation at the end of the year
Increase in shareholder wealth
New funds obtained to increase shareholder wealth
Market value added
Affable Ltd.
200
35
235
Tshs billion
Affliction Ltd.
200
55
255
35
(10)
25
55
(75)
(20)
Although Affliction Ltd.’s market capitalisation has increased more than that of Affable Ltd it has failed to create
any wealth for its shareholders. This is because the present value of the new project’s future income is less than
the funds invested in it.
Business Analysis:
Valuation:215
147
Business
© GTG
The following information is available of two companies for the last year
Tshs’ billion
Biopharm
TranInfra
Market capitalisation of equity
610
520
100
150
Market value of debt
80
500
Investor's capital
Book value of Debt
100
180
Calculate the MVA and comment on the performance of both the companies.
TM
12.2 Relationship between EVA
and MVA
Net present value measures the effect of a new project on the shareholders’ wealth. The market value added
model measures the amount of wealth the various projects undertaken by the company have generated for it.
Over a long term, MVA is the difference between the funds invested in a company and the current market
TM
capitalisation of the company. EVA is the difference between the cost of funds invested and NOPAT (earnings
of a business).
MVA is equivalent to the present value of future expected EVAs.
This relationship can be expressed as:
Net present value of a project = Market value added of the project = Present value of the expected future EVA
TM
EVA
TM
is an internal measure of performance whereas MVA is an external measure of performance.
Continuing the example of Affable Ltd and Affliction Ltd
The following are the details of the projects undertaken by the two companies.
Particulars
Initial investment (year 0)
Cash inflow per year (year 1 to year 4)
Cost of capital
Affable Inc
Tshs’ billion
(10)
15.76
15%
Affliction Ltd.
Tshs’ billion
(75)
19.31
20%
Net present value of the project accepted by Affable Inc = (Cash inflow per year from the project x Annuity factor
for four years at 15%) – Initial investment
= (Tshs15.76billion x 2.855) – Tshs10 billion
= Tshs 44.99 billion – Tshs 10 billion
= Tshs 35 billion (approx.)
Net present value of the project accepted by Affliction Inc = (Cash inflow per year from the project x Annuity
factor for four years at 20%) – Initial investment
= (Tshs 21.24 billion x 2.589) – Tshs 75 billion
= Tshs 55billion – Tshs 75billion
= Tshs (20) billion
Continued on the next page
148
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Business Valuation
Analysis Concepts and Applications
© GTG
Calculation of MVA
MVA of the project accepted by Affable Ltd (assuming the economic depreciation is Tshs 2.5billion per year).
Particulars
Capital employed at the beginning of the year
Net of tax operating cash flow
Less: Economic depreciation
Cost of capital @ 15%
Economic value-added Present
value factor @ 15%
Prevent value of economic value added
Total NPV (MVA)
Year 1
10.00
15.76
(2.50)
(1.50)
11.76
0.87
10.23
35.01
Year 2
7.50
15.76
(2.50)
(1.13)
12.14
0.76
9.17
Year 3
5.00
15.76
(2.50)
(0.75)
12.51
0.66
8.23
Year 4
2.50
15.76
(2.50)
(0.38)
12.89
0.57
7.37
The total value added, i.e. the present value added by the project, is equivalent to the market value added by it.
MVA of the project accepted by Affliction Inc (assuming the economic depreciation is Tshs18.75billion per year)
Particulars
Capital employed at the beginning of the year
Net of tax operating cash flow
Less: Economic depreciation
Cost of capital @ 20%
Economic value-added
Present value factor @ 20%
Prevent value of of economic value added
Total NPV (MVA)
Year 1
75.00
21.24
(18.75)
(15.00)
(12.51)
0.83
(10.42)
(20.01)
Year 2
56.25
21.24
(18.75)
(11.25)
(8.76)
0.69
(6.08)
Year 3
37.50
21.24
(18.75)
(7.50)
(5.01)
0.58
(2.90)
Year 4
18.75
21.24
(18.75)
(3.75)
(1.26)
0.48
(0.61)
The total value added, i.e. the present value added by the project, is equivalent to the market value added by it.
Answers to Test Yourself
Answer to TY 1
We use the Gordon growth model to value the equity share of Tanzan Infrastructure
(220) (1.035)
Po =
0.09 - 0.035
=
227.70 = Tshs. 4140
0.055
According to the Gordon model, the price of the share should be Tshs 4140. However, the price it is currently
trading appears to be on the higher side. We would, therefore, not recommend buying this share.
Answer to TY 2
1. Whenever a multiple is used, it is implied that assumptions about growth, risk and pay-out have already been
made and factored in. There is no need to make additional assumptions. In fact, any multiple is an explicit
function of these variables.
Total of P/E for all firms,287.85 divided by the number of firms,9
2.
(a) The average industry P/E ratio = 31.98
(b) No, all firms need not be included. We will have to exclude those firms that show either too high or too low a
ratio as these tend to distort the average. Therefore, if we exclude TanzInfotech and PanAfrica Systems, a
more realistic P/E ratio of 25.16 is obtained.
(c) When the industry average is used, it is implied that Apricot is similar to the average firm in terms of
profitability, growth and risk.
Business Analysis:
Valuation:217
149
Business
© GTG
Answer to TY 3
(a) Free cash flow to equity
Net Income
Add: Depreciation
Less: capital expenditure
Less: Change in working capital
Free cash flow to equity ( FCFE)
Tshs’ billion
20X2
20X3
54.2
59.0
12.5
14.0
15.0
18.0
(175-180)
(240-175)
56.7
-10.0
(b) Working capital as proportion of revenues: 20X2 = 175/540 = 32.41%
Change in revenues in 20X3 = 630 - 540 = 90
FCFE in 20X3 = 59 + 14 - 18 - (32.41% x 90)
= Tshs 25.83billion
Answer to TY 4
In the discounted cash flows approach, the expected cash flows on the assets of the firm are estimated. By
using a discount rate, these cash flows are brought to their present value. However, in an asset- based
valuation, all the assets owned by the business are listed, the estimated market value for each of them is
obtained and these market values are added together. Although the asset-based valuation appears to be simple
and very different from the discount cash flow approach, in order to obtain the market value, the assets’ cash
generating capacity have to be considered and then discounted.
Answer to TY 5
The Black, Scholes, Merton option pricing model is used widely by option traders to value options. It is based on
the concept of a riskless hedge. A trader or an investor can buy shares of a company and simultaneously sell
the call options on that share to create a risk-free investment position. This riskless return must equal the riskfree rate or an arbitrage opportunity would exist. People would take advantage of this opportunity until the
equilibrium level estimated by the BSM model is reached
The BSM model uses an equation to arrive at an estimated fair value of the price of the stock. The valuation
model includes inputs for the share price of a traded stock, the exercise price, the volatility of the stock and the
risk-free interest rate. The model assumes that the option is exercised at the end of an option’s contract period.
It also assumes that the expected volatility, expected dividends, and risk-free interest rates remain constant
over the option’s term. The BSM model was developed to value options traded in an active market and hence, it
may not be suitable to value non-trading instruments in an illiquid market.
Answer to TY 6
The concept of VBM is that the value of a company is determined by its present value of future cash flows.
Value is created only when the return on investment surpasses the cost of capital for an investment. VBM
extends these fundamental concepts by focusing on how organisations use them to make both major strategic
and everyday operating decisions. Properly executed, it is an approach to management that aligns a company’s
overall aspirations, analytical techniques and management processes to focus managerial decision-making on
the key drivers of value.
Answer to TY 7
Calculation of free cash flows
Sales
Operating profit
Depreciation
EBITDA
Tax (Operating profit x 35%)
Expenditure on non-current assets (W1)
Increase in working capital
Free cash flow
Actual
20X3
3300.0
Planning horizon period
20X4
20X5
20X6
20X7
3597.0 3848.8 4041.2 4162.5
467.6
500.3
525.4
541.1
89.9
96.2
101.0
104.1
557.5
596.5
626.4
645.2
163.7
175.1
183.9
189.4
(188.9) (180.1) (165.1) (144.5)
44.6
37.9
28.9
18.2
160.3
203.4
248.5
293.1
Tshs’ million
Future
20X8 onwards
4162.5
541.1
104.1
645.2
189.4
(104.1)
0.0
351.7
150 ©Business
Valuation Concepts and Applications
GTG
Business Analysis: 219
Answer to TY 9
Calculation of terminal value at end of planning horizon
Tshs’ million
Actual
20X3
Free cash flow
Discount factor, 10%
PV
Total - PV of planning horizon period
Planning horizon period
20X4
20X5
20X6
20X7
160.3
203.4
248.5
293.1
0.90909 0.82645 0.75131 0.68301
145.7
168.1
186.7
200.2
700.7
Future
20X8 onwards
351.7
7.94124
2792.9
Calculation of shareholder value
Competitive advantage period value
Terminal value
Firm value
Market value of debt
Shareholder value
Tshs million
700.7
2792.9
3493.6
850.0
2643.6
W1 Determining gross non-current assets (NCA)
Actual
20X3
1100.00
NCA (net). (Note1)
Growth in NCA (net)
Add: Depreciation (Note 2)
Growth in Gross NCA
Planning horizon period
20X4
20X5
20X6
20X7
1199.00 1282.93 1347.08 1387.49
99.0
83.9
64.1
40.4
89.9
96.2
101.0
104.1
188.9
180.1
165.1
144.5
Tshs’ million
Future
20X8 onwards
1387.49
0.0
104.1
104.1
Note 1: Sales/ Net book assets = 3 hence, net book assets = Sales/3
Note 2: Depreciation = 7.5% of net book assets
W2 Determining working capital
Working Capital (Note 1)
Increase in Working Capital
Actual
20X3
495.0
Planning horizon period
20X4
20X5
20X6
539.6
577.3
606.2
44.6
37.9
28.9
20X7
624.4
18.2
Tshs’ million
Future
20X8 onwards
624.4
0.0
Note 1:.@ 15% of sales
Answer to TY 8
As the EBIT is Tshs 600 million, factoring the growth rate gives an EBIT of 600 (1+ 3%) = Tshs618 million. The TV
is therefore:
(Amounts in million)
Business Valuation:
© GTG 151
220 : Business Analysis
NOPAT as adjusted EVA (ignoring interest)
Sales revenue
Less: Operating expenses
Less: Interest
Earnings before tax
Less: Tax
Net profit
Tshs
100.00
(64.00)
(6.00)
Tshs
120.00
(75.00)
(10.00)
Tshs
220.00
(139.00)
(16.00)
30.00
(12.00)
18.00
35.00
(15.40)
19.60
65.00
(27.40)
37.60
Calculation of NOPAT
Particulars
Earning before tax
Add: Interest
Less: Tax (W1 and W2)
NOPAT
Select
Tshs
Choice
Tshs
30
35
6
10
(14.40)
(19.80)
21.6
25.2
Total
Tshs
65
16
(34.20)
46.8
Workings
W1 Tax calculation for division Select
Tax charge
= Tax on accounting profit + 40% of interest charged
= Tshs12.0 + (Tshs6.0 x 40%)
= Tshs12.0 + Tshs2.4
= Tshs14.4
W2 Tax calculation for division Choice
Tax charge
= Tax on accounting profit + 44% of interest charged
= Tshs15.4 + (Tshs10.0 x 44%)
= Tshs15.4 + Tshs4.40
= Tshs19.8
EVA calculations
EVA = NOPAT – cK
Select division
EVA
EVA
= Tshs21.6 - (0.10 x Tshs122.0)
= Tshs9.4
Choice division
EVA
= NOPAT – (0.125 x Tshs150.0)
= Tshs25.2 – Tshs18.75
= Tshs6.45
152 ©Business
Valuation Concepts and Applications
GTG
Business Analysis: 221
Answer
to TY
10 9
Answer
to TY
The cash flows after adjustments for the years 1 to 5 is:
Tshs billion
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Net Income
110
140
180
155
125
Depreciation
30
30
30
30
30
Interest Expense
10
10
10
10
10
Rental Expense
5
5
5
5
5
155
185
225
200
170
Gross cash flow
After adjusting for inflation is Tshs795 billion.
Adjusted
for inflation
Tshs’ billion
Monetary Current Assets
175
Inventories
75
Land
85
Gross Plant assets
170
Leased property
80
Non capitalised assets (current)
Total current value of gross
investment ( adjusted for inflation)
210
795
The cash flow for the period Y0 to Y5 and the resultant IRR is:
Year
0
Gross investment
1
2
3
Tshs’ billion
4
5
(795)
Gross cash flows
155
185
225
200
Salvage value
170
210
(795)
IRR
155
185
225
200
380
11.72%
The CFROI of the firm is 11.72%. As the CFROI is higher than the cost of capital of the firm (10%), we can
conclude that the firm is creating value for the shareholders.
Answer to TY 11
Information available
Price (€)
(Tshs / €)
Prices prevailing when Andrew purchased NYP shares
20.00
1949
Prices prevailing in the market today
28.00
2152
(a) Andrew return
=
=
Current price − Purchase price
Purchase price
28 − 20
20
= 40%
Business Analysis:
Valuation:
153
Business
221
© GTG
(b) Percentage change (Tshs/€)
Current exchange rate-exchange rate at the time of purchase
exchange rate at the time of purchase
=
=
2152 - 1949
1949
=
203
= 10.41%
1949
(c) Andrew’s total return if he were to sell the shares:
=
((28)(2152) - (20.00)(1949))/((20.00)(1949)) x 100
(20.00)(1949)
=
(60,256) - (38,980) x 100
(38,980)
=
21,276
38,980
x 100 = 54.58%
Answer to TY 12
Biopharm
Tshs’ billion
TranInfra
Market capitalisation of equity
610
520
Market value of debt
100
150
Total market value
710
670
80
500
Book value of Debt
100
180
Book value of firm
180
680
MVA
530
(10)
Investor's capital
Comments: Biopharma has performed spectacularly well by adding Tshs530 billion to the value of the firm. This
is reflected by the very high increase in its share prices, whereas TransInfra has performed very poorly. In fact, it
has destroyed the value of the firm by Tshs10 billion. This is confirmed by the share price which has only
marginally increased.
Quick Quiz
1. A company has earned a profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of Tshs100 million. The number of
ordinary shares of Tshs1000 outstanding is 300000. The market value of the company’s shares at the yearend was Tshs6500. The price/earnings ratio for this company is:
A
B
C
D
19.5
333.33
6.5
33.33
2. When calculating the costs of the individual components of a capital structure, the corporate tax rate is
relevant to which of the following component cost formulas?
A
B
C
D
Preference shares
Debt
Equity
None of the above
3. Valuing tangible assets is simpler than valuing intangible assets. State whether this statement is true or
false.
4. The lattice-based option pricing model can be used for valuing the cost of employee stock options.
True/False
154
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5. A firm can be profitable and yet have a return on capital which is less than the WACC. State whether this
statement is true or false.
6. Shareholder value = Business value less
A
B
C
D
_.
Preferred stock
Debt
Corporate tax
Market value of equity
7. To estimate the future growth rate one of the tools used is the
A
B
C
D
Monte Carlo simulation
Historic rate
EVA
MVA
8. The objective of Value based management is to increase the
A
B
C
D
.
.
MVA
Growth rate of the firm
Dividend payout
Cost of capital
9. The accounting profit is the main component in calculating the cash flow return on investment (CFROI).
State whether this statement is true or false
10. The relationship between MVA and economic profit can be expressed as:
TM
Market value added of a project = Present value of the expected future Economic profit (EVA )
State whether this statement is true or false.
Answers to Quick Quiz
1. The correct option is A.
PE ratio = Current share price/EPS
= 6,500/333.33
= 19.5
where,
EPS
= Tshs100 million/300,000 shares
= 333.33 per share
2. The correct option is B.
3. False
4. True
5. True
6. The correct option is B.
7. The correct option is B.
8. The correct option is A.
9. False
10. True
© GTG
Business Analysis:
Valuation:
155
Business
223
Self-Examination Questions
Question 1
Techzent reported a net income of Tshs770 million in 20X3, after interest expenses of Tshs320 million. The
effective tax rate was 36%. It had provided depreciation of Tshs960 million. Capital expenditure incurred during
the year amounted to Tshs1.2 billion. The amount of debt outstanding was Tshs4 billion at 8%.
The beta of the stock is 1.05. The shares outstanding were 2 million, trading at Tshs6000 per share, with a book
value of Tshs5 billion. Techzent paid 40% of its earnings as dividends. The working capital requirements are
negligible. The treasury bond rate is 7% and the risk premium for this industry is 5.5%.
Required:
(a) Estimate the free cash flow to the firm in 20X3. (b)
Estimate the value of the firm at the end of 20X3.
(c) What is the value of equity and the value per share at the end of 20X3? Use the FCFF approach.
Question 2
The current market price of an equity share of Obed Medicals Ltd is Tshs8000. The market expects that the
company will declare a dividend of Tshs400 for the forthcoming year end. The expected market price then
would be Tshs8800.
Required:
(a) What is the return to the investor, if he were to purchase this share?
(b) If the capitalisation rate is 16%, should he buy it?
Question 3
Software industry shares currently yield an expected rate of return of 16.5%. Geeksoft, a medium sized IT firm
is expected to pay a year-end dividend of Tshs220 per share.
Required:
(a) If the stock is selling at Tshs4400 per share at present, what is the market’s expectation of the growth rate
of Geeksoft’s dividends?
(b) If dividend growth forecasts for Geeksoft’s are revised downward to 8% per year, what will happen to the
price of its shares? What is likely to happen to the PE ratio?
Question 4
Diamond Star Ltd is investing heavily into growth over the last four years. It has been showing profits each year.
However, there is a section of shareholders which is critical of the way the company has been performing. They
argue that the company has been losing value over the five years. Do you agree with their views?
Question 5
A wholly equity financed company whose current sales are Tshs100billion is estimated to have the following
value drivers:
Sales growth rate = 14% p.a.
Operating profit margin = 7% sales
Tax rate = 35% of operating profit
Incremental fixed capital investment = 13% of the change in sales
Incremental working capital investment = 11% of the change in sales
Planning horizon = 5 years
The required rate of return = 15% p.a.
Required:
Calculate the shareholders’ value added.
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Question 6
Tshs’ million
31, 20X3
SOCI of Zenia Ltd for the year ending December
CostSales
of Goods Sold
Net
3,900
2,100
SG&A Expenses
600
Depreciation
225
Other Operating Expenses
Operating income
150
825
Interest Expenses
Income Before Tax
300
525
Income Tax @40%
Net Profit After Taxes
210
315
SOFP of Zenia Ltd as at December 31, 20X3
Liabilities
Tshs’ million
Assets
Tshs’ million
Accounts payable
150
Cash
Accrued expenses
short term debt
375
Accounts receivable
555
75
450
Inventories
350
Total Current Liabilities
975
Other current assets
220
Long term debt
1140
Total Current assets
Long term Liabilities
1140
Property , land
975
1200
Share capital
450
Equipment
615
Retained earnings
645
Other Long-term assets
735
Profit for the year
315
Total non-current assets
2325
Total assets
3525
Total equity capital
1410
Total liabilities
3525
The expected market rate of return on equity = 13% and on debt = 10%
Calculate the EVA of the firm.
Question 7
Mbeya Ceramics, as part of its growth strategy to increase its value, is considering acquiring a privately held
company. The CEO has appointed you as the company’s advisor. The CEO would like you to explain how to
value this company which does not pay any dividends. The acquisition target is a privately held company in the
same industry. The company currently has a free cash flow of Tshs million 2000 million.
Its WACC is 10% and it is expected to grow at a constant rate of 5%. The company has marketable securities
of Tshs1000 million. It is financed with Tshs2000 million of debt, Tshs million 500 million of preferred stock, and
Tshs million 2100 million of book equity.
Required:
Specifically, the CEO has advised you to provide him answers to the following questions.
(a) What is its total corporate value? What is its value of equity?
(b) What is its value of operations?
(c) What is its MVA?
Business Analysis:
Valuation:
157
Business
225
© GTG
Answers to Self-Examination Questions
Answer to SEQ 1
(a) FCFF in 20X3
Tshs’ million
20X3
Net Income
770.0
Add: Depreciation
960.0
Add Interest (after tax)
204.8
Less: capital expenditure
1200.0
Less: Change in working capital
0
Free cash flow to equity ( FCFF)
734.8
Interest expense = 320 x (1- 0.36) = Tshs 204.8 million
(b) To calculate EBIT, we first find out the EBT and then add the interest cost.
EBT =
Net income
770
=
= 1203.125.
(1- tax rate)
0.63
Hence, EBIT = 1203.125 + 320 = Tshs1523.125 million
Expected growth rate in FCFF (‘g’) = Retention Ratio x ROA = 0.6 * 10.83% = 6.50%
Cost of equity = 7% + 1.05 x 5.5% = 12.775%
Note: We use CAPM.
The market value of equity = Tshs 6,000 x 2million shares = Tshs12,000 million
WACC =
0.08 (1- 0.36) 4000 (0.12775)12000
+
= 10.86%
4,000 +12,000
4,000 +12,000
Value of the firm =
734.8
= Tshs16,853 million
0.1086 - 0.65
Note: We use the Gordon growth model. We use the value of g calculated g earlier.
(c) Value of equity = value of firm - market value of debt
= Tshs16,853 - Tshs4,000 = Tshs12,853 million
Value per share =
12,853
= Tshs6,427
2 million shares
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Answer to SEQ 2
(a) The expected return from the share
The current price of share is given by the following formula:
Where, P0 = Tshs8,000, P1 = Tshs8,800, D1 = Tshs400
i.e. 8000 =
400 + 8,800
or 8,000 + 8,000 = 9,200.
1+k e
(b) The investor can expect a return of 15% on the share. He should however not buy the share, as the
minimum return, he expects is 16%.
Answer to SEQ 3
(a) P0 =
D1
k−g
Hence 4400 =
220
0.165 − g
or g = 11.5%
(b) If the growth forecast, falls to 8%, the price will fall to:
P0 =
220
= Tshs2,588
0.165 − 0.08
The price will fall as a result of the firm’s lower forecast of dividend growth. However, as the current year’s
2,588
= 11.76.
forecast is unchanged, the PE ratio will go down to
220
Answer to SEQ 4
A company can be profitable and yet have a return on capital employed that is less than the WACC. This is
especially true of firms that have large capital requirements. If ROCE is less than the WACC, then the company
is not earning enough on its capital to satisfy its investors. Growth compounds this problem as it adds even
more capital. If the return does not cover the WACC, growth decreases value.
Answer to SEQ 5
Tshs’ billion
Value drivers
Sales 14% growth
Operating profit, 7% of
sales
Tax rate, 35% of operating
profit
Incr. fixed cap investment=
13% of change in sales
Incr. working cap
investment= 11% of change
in sales
Operating free cash flow
20X2
Actuals
100.000
Present value @ 15%
Total PV = Tshs36.844 billion
The SVA of the firm is Tshs36.844 billion
20X3
20X4
20X5
20X6
20X7
114.000
129.960
148.154
168.896
192.541
20X8
onwards
192.541
7.98
9.0972
10.3708
11.8227
13.4779
13.4779
2.793
3.184
3.630
4.138
4.717
4.717
1.820
2.075
2.365
2.696
3.074
0.000
1.540
1.756
2.001
2.282
2.601
0.000
1.827
2.083
2.374
2.707
3.086
8.761
1.589
1.575
1.561
1.548
1.534
29.037
Business Analysis:
Valuation:
159
Business
227
© GTG
Answer to SEQ 6
NOPAT = PAT + Interest = 315 +300 = 615
The capital invested = Total liabilities – (accounts payable + accrued expenses) = 3525 - (150 + 375) = 3000
WACC =
1,410
3,000
x 13% +
1,590
3,000
x 10% (1-40%) = 9.29%
EVA =615 – (3000 X 9.29%) = 615 – 278.7 = Tshs336.3 million
Answer to SEQ 7
(b) Value of operations =
=
200 (1 + 0.05)
0.10 - 0.05
FCF1
, where FCF1 = FCF0 X (1 + g)
WACC − g
= Tshs4200 million
(a) Total corporate value or total value of the firm = value of operations + marketable securities
=4200 +1000 = Tshs5200 million
The firm’s value of equity = 5200 – 2000 – 500 =Tshs2700 million
(c) The firm’s MVA = Total corporate value – total book value
= 5200 – (2000 + 500 + 2100) = Tshs600 million
160
Business Valuation Concepts and Applications
C2
SECTION C
Bond Analysis: 161
BUSINESS VALUATION
CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS
STUDY GUIDE C2: BOND ANALYSIS
Bonds constitute the most important part of the world’s debt-capital markets. Bond prices depend on the interest
rates offered by the issuer and are also affected by economic and political events. The yields on certain
government bonds are fundamental economic indicators e.g. the yield on the US Treasury long term bond, is an
indicator of the market’s view on US interest rates, inflation, public-sector debt, and economic growth.
The bond yield level, along with the equity market is important to the country’s economy. It is an indicator of the
health and direction of the economy. Because of the size and crucial nature of the debt markets, a large number
of market participants, ranging from bond-issuers to bond investors and associated intermediaries are interested
in analysing them.
This Study Guide provides you with an understanding of how a bond is valued and how bond yield may be
analysed.
a) Evaluate prices of bonds using net present values.
b) Develop an understanding of yields, yields to maturity, duration and price volatility, term interest rates,
corporate borrowing and default risk.
c) Perform bond refund analysis.
162
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1. Evaluate prices of bonds using net present values.
[Learning Outcome a]
1.1 Bonds as debt instruments
Bonds are debt capital market instruments issued by a borrower, who has to repay to the lender / investor the
amount borrowed along with interest, over a predetermined period of time. Bonds are debt instruments with
term to maturity of over one year. The most popular bond is the conventional or plain vanilla (also called the
bullet bond). This bond pays a regular pre-determined fixed interest rate, either annually or semi-annually over a
fixed period to maturity or redemption. At maturity the principal is repaid to the bond holder either at par or with
a premium.
Bonds involve cash flows payable over a specified period of time. The cash flows they represent are the
periodic interest payments on the loan and the principal amount payable on redemption of the loan.
The principles followed in pricing a bond in the bond market are similar to the ones in other financial markets.
The price of a bond is equal to the sum of the present values of all the future cash flows from the instrument.
The rate of interest or the discount rate used to arrive at the present values of the cash flows is important as it is
a reflection of how its return is perceived by the market.
The bond pricing is a reflexion of the yield that may be received. The pricing of bonds can be either at a
premium, or at par or at a discount. If the interest rate on the bond is greater than the current market interest
rates, the bond will sell at a premium i.e. higher than the par value. On the other hand, if the bond interest rate
is lower than the existing market interest rates, the bond will sell at a value lower than its par value i.e. at a
discount.
By comparing the bond yield against the current market rates, an investor can calculate the maximum price that
he can pay for the bond. The bond yield should be attractive as compared to current market interest rates.
1.2 Pricing of bonds using net present values
The calculation of bond prices using net present values is elaborated below:
1. Valuing a straight bond (Vanilla)
The price of a bond is essentially the sum of the present values of all expected coupon payments plus the
present value of the par value at maturity. Calculating bond price involves discounting the future cash flows. The
discount rate (or the interest rate) used for the calculation is the “expected” or “required” yield.
Bond price =
C
+
(1+ i)1
C
C
C
M
+
+…
+
2
3
(1+ i)
(1+ i)
(1 + i)n
(1+ i)1
Where,
C = coupon payment (or interest amount)
n = number of payments
i = interest rate, or required yield
M = value at maturity
Calculating the PVs for several periods can be tedious. But, as the coupon payments are receivable in specific
time intervals for a certain period, this can be considered as a case of an ordinary annuity. An ordinary annuity
is a series of fixed payments at set intervals over a fixed period of time. The first payment of an ordinary annuity
takes place is one interval (often six months) from the time at which the bond was acquired. We can therefore,
use the simpler ordinary annuity formula in place of the one shown above.
Using the ordinary annuity formula,
Bond
Analysis:
163
Bond
Analysis:
301
© GTG
A 10% Tshs1.0 billion bond dated January 1, 20X3 pays interest semi-annually on June 30 and December 31 of
each year. It has a maturity of 5 years and the market interest rate is 12 percent. What is the price you will pay
for this bond?
Interest per annum @ 10% on the value of the bond = 1.0 billion x 10% = Tsh0.10 billion. This amount is
payable in two half yearly instalments of Tshs0.05 billion each. Thus, in all, 10 interest instalments will be
payable over the maturity of the bond. In addition, a lump sum payment of the principal of Tshs1.0 billion will be
th
made at the end of the 5 year.
The present value of the bond depends upon the market interest rate. The market rate is used to discount the
interest and the principal payments to the present value. As interest is payable semi-annually, the interest rate
should also be brought to a comparable semi-annual basis by dividing the market rate by 2. Thus the market
12%
= 6% (In case the interest is payable quarterly, the rate will be divided by four and so
rate for six months
2
on).
The formula will therefore, shown as:
The PV of the bond = the PV of the interest payment + the PV of the amount payable at maturity.
Now, take a look at the PV of an ordinary annuity (PVOA) table. Locate the cell with n=10 (number of periods of
interest payment) and r = 6%.
The factor is 7.360.
The factor in the PVOA Table is the present value of a series or stream of Tsh1 amounts occurring at the end of
every period for “n” periods discounted by the market interest rate “i” per period. What this factor indicates is
that the PV of the cumulative amount of interest of Tshs1 @6% for each al year, receivable for 10 six monthly
periods is Tshs7.360
As the periodic payment of interest amount is Tshs0.05 billion, the PV of the sum of all such amounts
received in 10 periods is 0.05 x 7.360 = Tshs0.368 billion.
We now calculate the PV of the maturity value of the bond. Unlike the interest payments, this is only a one-time
payment and not an annuity.
We use the PV table in the same manner we did for the PVOA table. The factor is 0.558.
The factor in the PV Table is the present value of a single payment of Tsh1 occurring at the end of the period
“n” discounted by the market interest rate per period “i”.
The PV of the maturity amount of the bond is thus, Tshs1.0 billion x 0.558 = Tshs0.558 billion.
The sum of the PVs of the interest and the principal = 0.368 + 0.558 = Tsh0.926 billion.
The market price of a Tshs1.0 billion bond today @ 12% per annum interest, payable semi-annually for 5 years
is Tshs0.926 billion. The reason why the price is below par value is that the coupon rate @ 10% per annum is
lower than the market rate of 12%. The market therefore, discounts the price of the bond in such a manner that
the yield reflects 12%.
164
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African Paints Ltd is selling a new issue of bonds to raise money for its expansion project. The bonds will pay a
coupon rate of 10% and will mature in 6 years. The face value of the bonds is Tshs100,000 and interest is paid
half-yearly.
The market rate of interest is currently 8% for similar risk bonds.
What is the price an investor would pay for these bonds?
2. Valuing zero coupon bonds
A zero-coupon bond is one which offers the entire payment at maturity. In other words, there are no periodic
interest payments. Usually, the bonds are issued at a discount to the face value and at maturity; the face value
is paid in the absence of which an investor would have no incentive to invest in these bonds. Zero coupon
bonds are also called deep discount bonds. The market price of these bonds tends to fluctuate more than
coupon bonds.
Since there is only one payment made at the time of maturity, the PV formula is used to price the bond i.e.
M
(1 + i)n
It is a normal practice for bonds to pay interest semi-annually. Unless otherwise given in the exams, this
practice should be followed for your bond calculations.
Let us calculate the price of a zero-coupon bond that is maturing in five years, having a par value of Tshs200
million and a required yield of 10%.
Although no interest is paid each period, for purposes of comparison with other bonds, we consider the semiannual interest and adjust the period accordingly. We therefore consider the equivalent rate and period as was
done in the earlier example. Therefore, “i”= 5% or 0.05 and “n”=10.
PV of the bond =
200
(1 + 0.05)10
From the PV table, we obtain the factor = 0.614
Therefore, the current market price of the Tshs200 million bond should be Tshs200 million x 0.614 = Tshs122.8
million.
3. Valuing bonds between interest payment periods
As bonds are traded, the sale and purchase take place at various points of time whereas the interest is only
payable at fixed intervals of time. Bond prices are generally quoted on a “clean basis” i.e. they do not include
the accrued interest from the last interest payment date. The seller must be compensated for the interest
accrued the date of sale. However, when the price quoted includes the interest accrued, it is called a “dirty”
price.
To calculate the accrued interest, we must first determine the number of days for which the bond was held since
the last interest payment. There are two “day count conventions”. Municipal and corporate bonds usually follow
a 360 day count convention, whereas treasury securities use the 365 day (or 366 days in a leap year)
convention.
Accrued interest = days between the sale (settlement and the last coupon payment) x coupon
number of days in the period
Bond
Analysis:
165
Bond
Analysis:
303
© GTG
st
On 1 January 20X3, a treasury bond of face value Tshs1000 is quoting at 12% annual interest. The interest is
st
th
paid on 31 March and 30 September. Let’s determine the accrued interest for this bond.
The annual interest is @12%, therefore semi-annually at rate of 6% would be paid.
Interest on this bond has accrued from 1st October to 1st January 20X3
October
31 days
November
30 days
December
31 days
Total
92 days
The accrued interest = Tshs1000 x
100
6
x
92
182
= Tshs30.33.
2. Develop an understanding of yields, yields to maturity, duration and price volatility, term
interest rates, corporate borrowing and default risk.
[Learning Outcomes b]
2.1 Yields
Yield is an important concept in bond investing, as we use it as a tool to measure the return of one bond as
compared to another. It enables the investor to make informed decisions about which bond to buy. Yield is the
rate of return on the bond investment. However, even though the coupon rate is fixed, the yield is subject to
fluctuation depending upon the market rates of interest. Yield is the return an investor receives by holding a
bond to maturity. However, it is commonly used to indicate the rate of interest expected to be received from the
bond.
coupon amount
.
Yield =
price
Yield =
coupon amount
price
When a bond is purchased at par, yield is equal to the interest rate. However when the bond price changes, the
yield also changes in an inverse proportion. The higher the price, lower is the yield and vice versa.
Ms. Diana Degera bought 100 bonds with a face value of Tshs10,000 and a coupon rate of 10% a year ago at
par. She now needs the money to tide over some unforeseen events. The market rate has now gone up to 12%.
Will she receive the same amount she paid for the bonds?
The answer is, “no”. She has to sell the bonds at a price lower than what she paid for them a year ago as no
one would otherwise accept the bond which gives a return lower than the market rate.
Although the buyer will receive the same amount of interest and will have the same amount of principal returned
at maturity, the buyer’s yield, or rate of return, will have to match the market rate. This can happen only if the
buyer pays a price lower than the price paid by Ms Degera. In fact, the fair price of the bond will now be
10,000
0.12
= Tshs8,333.33
The coupon for the bond @10% is Tshs1000.
At a price of Tshs8,333.33 the yield for the buyer will be
1,000
8333.33
= 12 %, which matches the market rate.
166 ©Business
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GTG
Bond Analysis: 305
2.2 Yield to maturity (YTM)
The current yield helps in calculating the return the annual coupon payment gives the investor. It does not,
however, consider the present value of the interest (coupon payments) the investor is expected to receive in the
future. Therefore, most analysts use the term “yield” to mean the yield to maturity (YTM). It is the return that an
investor gains by receiving the present values of the coupon payments, the par value and capital gains in
relation to the price that is paid. YTM is that interest (discount) rate at which the present values of all the future
cash flows equal the bond's price. (The concept is identical to the IRR).
Yield to maturity is a more meaningful yield calculation that shows the total return an investor receives if he
holds the bond to maturity. It equals all the interest payments he will receive and any gain or loss. YTM is more
accurate and enables a comparison of bonds with different maturities and coupons.
The yield to maturity, like the IRR, is an interest rate that must be calculated through trial and error. So, analysts
and investors generally use a financial calculator or program that is quickly able to provide the results.
Diagram 1: Relationship between bond price and yield
Bond price
Yield
The graph shows that as the price of the bond increases, the yield decreases, or as the market interest
increases, the bond price decreases.
The bond price =
cash flow 1
cash flow n
cash flow 2
+ .......... +
+
2
1
(1 + yield)n
(1 + yield)
(1 + yield)
Alternatively, as the cash flows represent an ordinary annuity, we can use the annuity formula
n
Bond price = Annual interest X PVIFAkd + M X (PVIF
n)
kd
k
d=
required return on the bond
n = period of the bond
The yield to maturity is then calculated using trial and error method or interpolation.
Mr. Scot has purchased bonds of MQD Ltd from the open market at Tshs 1280 per bond. The par value of the
bond is Tshs1200 @12% interest payable annually. The years to maturity is 10 years.
Let’s compute the YTM (yield to maturity).
Annual interest = Tshs1200 X12/100 = Tshs144
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n
Bond price = Annual interest X PVIFAkd + M X (PVIF
n)
kd
At 12% yield the value of the bond is Tshs 1200, therefore for a value of Tshs1280 the yield must be less than
10%.
At 9% discount rate
Tshs144 X PVIFA11,10 + M X (PVIF 11,10)
Tshs 144 X 5.889 + Tshs1200 X 0.352
848 + 422 = Tshs1270.
Since with 11% discount rate the value of the bond is lower than Tshs1280 we compute with a lower rate @10%
Tshs144 X PVIFA10,10 + M X (PVIF 10,10)
Tshs 144 X 6.145 + Tshs1200 X 0.386
884.88 + 463.2 = Tshs1348
Since value of bond at 10% discount rate is higher than Tshs1280, the YTM lies between 10% and 11%. We
find the exact value through interpolation
Difference between value of bond @ 10% and 11%= Tshs1348 – Tshs1270 = Tshs78 --- 1
Difference between the value of bond at lower kd and market value = Tshs 1348 – Tshs1280 = Tshs68 ---2
Divide 2 / 1 we get 68/78 = 0.87
Multiplying the above by the gap between the 2 kd = 1% (11%-10%) = 0.87 X 1% = 0.87%
Adding 0.87% to 10% we get = 10.87%
YTM 10.87%
The relationship between bond price and yield to maturity is given below:
If yield to maturity is equal to the coupon rate the bond is trading at par.
If the yield to maturity is lower than the coupon rate the bond is trading above par (or trading at premium).
If the yield to maturity is higher than the coupon rate the bond is trading below par (or trading at a discount)
2.3 Duration of bonds and price volatility
A majority of investors consider that investing in fixed income securities, such as bond and corporate
debentures, is safe since they can expect to receive coupon payments at regular intervals. But, fixed income
investments have several risks, which may result in a loss to investors if the securities default.
There are three major types of risk on a bond.
Market risk: Adverse changes caused by the fluctuation in the economy and volatility in the financial
markets, such as interest rates, yield curve, and inflation rate can cause a potential loss in the portfolio
value.
Credit risk: This is a risk due to changes of the perceived ability of counter-parties to meet their contractual
obligations e.g. credit ratings may be down- graded or that the issuer would default.
Liquidity risk: This risk relates to the difficulty to sell the securities in the market at the time the investors
need cash. The prices may have to be reduced in order to attract buyers for these securities.
The price of a bond is inversely related to the required yield for the bond. Analysts try to quantify this
relationship in order to predict the change in the price of a bond. This has been explained earlier through
diagram 1.
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1. Bond value and time
The price of the bond changes during its life time such that at maturity it is equal to the par value (assuming
there is no risk of default). If the bond is trading at a premium to its par value, this premium will decline with the
passage of time, assuming the required yield does not change from today up to maturity date. Conversely in
case the bond is trading at a discount, the discount will fade away over a period of time assuming no change in
required rate of interest.
Assume a bond with rate of interest of 12% at par value Tshs1000 (10 years).
Let us consider the following situations:
Required rate of 14% and bond is trading at a discount
Required rate of 10% and bond is trading at a premium.
The following diagram illustrates how the price changes over a period of time.
Diagram 2: Price changes over a period of time
2. Duration
Duration is a measure of the time that the bond will take to repay its cost of purchase.
It is an important measure for management of bonds and other fixed income securities. The duration of a bond
is effected by
Coupon rate: In case the coupon rate of a bond is higher than another bond of identical credit quality, the
higher rate bond will repay faster and therefore have a higher duration.
Period to maturity: The greater the time to maturity the higher is the duration.
Bonds of Tejo Ltd are currently trading at Tshs1200. The yield is 10%. In case this bond has two years to
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maturity the duration would be lower than if its maturity is seven years. This is because it is then subject to lower
price risk.
Types of duration
(a) Macaulay Duration
It was developed by Frederic Macaulay in 1938. This form of duration measures the number of years required to
recover the true cost of a bond, considering the present value of all coupon and principal payments received in
the future. Thus, it is the only type of duration in years. Interest rates are assumed to be continuously
compounded
The formula for Macaulay duration is as follows:
where,
n= the number of cash flows,
t= time to maturity
C= cash flow
i = interest yield
M= maturity (par) value
P=bond price
John has bought 10 five-year bond with a par value of Tshs10,000 and coupon rate of 10%. Assume that the
coupon is paid annually, and that market is also 10%. What is the Macaulay duration of the bond?
The interest received (cash flow) @ 10% on Tshs 10,000 = Tshs 1,000. We use the PV tables for each term
individually.
Time Cash Flow Interest Factor Present Value
(t)
(10%)
(1/(1+i)t
C*1/(1+i)t
1
2
3
4
5
5
1,000.00
1,000.00
1,000.00
1,000.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
0.9091
0.8264
0.7513
0.6830
0.6209
0.6209
Weighted PV
t*C*1/(1+i)t
909.09
826.45
751.31
683.01
620.92
6,209.21
10,000.00
909.09
1,652.89
2,253.94
2,732.05
3,104.61
31,046.07
41,698.65 *Note: since the coupon rate and the market rate is the same @ 10 %, the market price is also Tshs10,000. The
small difference of Tshs0.10 arises because of rounding off.
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A simpler way of calculating the Macaulay duration is given in the example below:
Diamond Ltd has issued an 8% coupon rate bond with a face value of Tshs1000, and redeemable after four
years. Considering the market interest rate at 10%, the duration of the bond will be:
Coupon on the bond = 8% of Tshs1000 = Tshs80
Year Return Discount factor at
1
80
2
80
3
80
4 1080
10% Present value of return Weight Present value of return x Weight
0.909
72.72
1
72.72
0.826
66.08
2
132.16
0.751
60.08
3
180.24
0.683
737.64
4
2950.56
936.52
3335.68
Duration of the bond = 333.568/93.652 = 3.56 years
As for a zero- c o u p o n bond, the Macaulay’s duration is equal to the bond's maturity, so no calculation
is necessary.
Benefits of duration
Duration is used by investors to respond to changes in the market interest rates through the following ways:
(i) To speculate on change in the interest rates: bearish investors (i.e. those expecting a rise in the market
interest rates) increase the duration of their debt portfolios to maximise their gains whereas bullish investors
(i.e. investors expecting a fall in the market interest rates) decrease the average duration of their debt
portfolio.
(ii) To invest according to the risk appetite: duration allows the investors to determine the sensitivity of a
debt instrument to the market interest rate. This allows the investors to create a portfolio consisting of debt
instruments of different maturities and yields that match with the respective investor’s risk appetite.
Limitations to duration
(i) It is only an approximation of the price sensitivity of a debt instrument and is only accurate as a measure of
risk for relatively small changes around the current market price or yield. The problem can be solved with
the help of convexity (discussed later in this Learning Outcome).
(ii) It does not consider changes in the price of the debt instrument due to a change in the credit rating or
default by the company.
(iii) It does not consider the fact that callable bonds / debentures can be redeemed before their maturity by the
issuer of the bond / debentures.
(b) Modified duration
The modified duration is an extension of the Macaulay duration which helps to measure price volatility. It takes
into account the interest rate movements. It demonstrates the change in duration for each percentage change in
yield. There is an inverse relationship between yield and modified duration.
=
Macaulay duration
YTM
(1+
)
n
Where,
YTM – yield to maturity
n – number of coupons paid in a year
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Let us continue with the previous example of John. We know that the bond sells at par and the yield to maturity
is 10%. The Macaulay’s duration has been calculated at 4.17 years. The coupon payment is once a year.
The modified duration =
4.17
1+
= 3.79 years.
0.10
1
The calculation given in the example indicates that if the bond's yield changes from 10% to 11%, the duration of
the bond will decline to 3.79 years. As this equation calculates how duration will change when interest increases
by 100 basis points (1 percent), the modified duration will always be lower than the Macaulay duration.
(c) Duration Gap
Duration Gap is the difference between the sensitivity of interest-yielding assets and the sensitivity of liabilities
to a change in market interest rates. Duration gap measures how well matched the timings of cash inflows from
assets are against the cash outflows a company has to make for its liabilities. Duration gap allows a company to
quantify the level of interest rate risk faced by it.
(i) Positive duration gap
If the duration of assets of an organisation is more than the duration of its liabilities then the organisation has a
positive duration gap. A positive duration indicates that in case of a rise in the market interest rates, the value of
assets will fall more sharply than its liabilities, which will reduce the value of the organisation’s equity. If interest
rates fall, assets will gain more than liabilities and the value of the organisation’s equity will increase.
(ii) Negative duration gap
Duration gap is negative when the duration of the liabilities of an organisation is more than the duration of its
assets. If market interest rates rise, then liabilities lose more value than assets thereby increasing the value
of the organisation’s equity. However, if interest rates fall, the rise in the value of liabilities will be more than the
value of assets which will decrease the organisation’s equity.
By matching the duration of its assets and liabilities i.e. by eliminating the duration gap, a company can
immunise itself against interest rate risk.
3. Convexity
Duration assumes price sensitivity to market interest rates of a debt instrument in a linear measure i.e. a straight
line. According to duration, for a certain percentage change in market interest rates, an equal percentage
change in the market price of the debt instrument will occur. However, the prices of debt instruments do not
change linearly, but in a curved or convex manner.
Diagram 3: Relationship between convexity and duration
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The diagram shows that the relationship between the market price of a debt instrument and market interest
rates is not linear (a straight line), but convex. The more convex the relationship is, the more inaccurate the
duration will be as a measure of market interest rate sensitivity of the debt instrument.
(a) Meaning of convexity
Convexity is the measure of the curvature of a debt instrument’s price to market interest rate relationship.
Convexity used along with duration gives investors a more accurate approximation of the percentage change in
the price due to a change in the market interest rates.
Debt securities with fixed coupon usually have positive convexity.
Debt securities with high positive convexity have a higher increase in prices as interest rates fall than those with
low or negative convexity. Furthermore, the prices of debt securities with high positive convexity fall more slowly
when the interest rates are rising. Hence, measuring the convexity of a debt security tells the investor the
degree to which a debt security’s prices are sensitive to changes in the market interest rates.
For investors with large debt portfolios, e.g. pension funds, a small change in price can amount to significant
differences in the value of their holding. For such investors the convexity of a bond / debenture is of high
importance.
(b) Impact of convexity on duration
An investor can use duration to protect his portfolio. The investor must adjust its portfolio in such a way that the
duration of the portfolio is equal to the investor’s investment time horizon e.g. the investor must create a
portfolio that will return Tshs1,000,000 in five years’ time regardless of interest rate changes.
Convexity can also be used to compare debt instruments with same duration with different convexity. The price
change in value of debt instruments due to change in market interest rate will be different because of convexity.
4. Price volatility properties of option-free bonds
(a) For very small changes in the required yield, the percentage price change for a given bond is approximately
the same, whether the required yield increases or decreases.
(b) For large changes in the required yield, the percentage price change is different for an increase in the
required yield than for a decrease.
(c) For a large change in basis points, the percentage price increase is greater than the percentage price
decrease.
2.4 Term interest rates
We have understood that a bond is an interest-only debt. This means that the borrower pays the interest every
period and the principal is normally repaid at the end of the loan.
The term structure of interest rates is also known as the yield curve. It is a popular method of bond valuation.
1. The yield curve
The yield curve is a measure of the market's expectations of future interest rates given the current market
conditions.
Thus "term structure" of interest rates refers to the relationship between bonds of different terms / tenure.
When interest rates of bonds are plotted against their terms, it is known as "yield curve". Economists and
investors believe that the shape of the yield curve reflects the market's future expectation for interest rates and
the conditions for monetary policy.
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The main patterns created by the term structure of interest rates are shown below:
(a) Normal Yield Curve
As its name indicates, this is the yield curve shape that forms during normal market conditions, wherein
investors generally believe that there will be no significant changes in the economy, and that the economy will
continue to grow at a normal rate. Thus in normal market conditions, to invest in an instrument for a longer
period of time, an investor needs to be compensated for undertaking the additional risk. Yield on long term debt
will therefore be higher than on short term debt.
Diagram 4: Normal Yield Curve
Yield
Borrowing years
(b) Flat yield curve
There may be a situation in which there are some signals that short-term interest rates will raise and other
signals that long-term interest rates will fall. This condition will create a curve that is flatter than its normal
positive slope. During such an environment, it is difficult for the market to determine whether interest rates will
move significantly in either direction. A flat yield curve usually occurs when the market is making a transition that
emits different but simultaneous indications of what interest rates will do.
Diagram 5: Flat yield curve
Yield
Borrowing years
(c) Inverted yield curve
In a situation where investors think that in the long-term interest rates will fall, in such abnormal market
environment, bonds with longer maturity dates are expected to offer lower yields than bonds with shorter
maturities. These yield curves are rare, and they form during extraordinary market conditions wherein the
expectations of investors are completely the inverse of those demonstrated by the normal yield curve. The
inverted yield curve indicates that the market currently expects interest rates to decline as time moves into the
future, which in turn means the market expects yields of long-term bonds to decline.
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Diagram 6: Inverted yield curve
Yield
Borrowing years
(d) Steep yield curve
A steep curve can occur when the small percentage gap between the shortest maturity bonds (i.e. three-month
T-bills) and the longest maturity bonds (i.e. 30-year Treasury bonds) widens because some economic force
causes the short-term rates to drop more than long-term ones.
When the gap gets wider and the slope of the yield curve increases sharply — long-term bond holders are
sending a message that they think the economy will improve quickly in the future.
This type of curve can be seen at the beginning of an economic expansion (or after the end of a recession).
Diagram 7: Steep yield curve
Yield
Borrowing years
2. Theories of interest rate structure
There are three main theories that describe the future yield curve:
(a) Pure Expectation Theory
Academic economists have debated the forces that determine the shape of the yield curve for several years.
This theory states that longer-term rates are determined by investor expectations of short-term rates in the
future. An upward-sloping yield curve is explained as an indication that the market expects rising short-term
rates in the future. Since rising rates normally occur during economic expansions, an upward-sloping yield
curve is a sign that the market expects continued expansion in the level of economic activity.
In mathematical terms, the theory suggests that:
(1 + R2)2 = (1 + R1) x (1 + E(R1))
Where,
R2 = the rate on two-year securities
R1 = the rate on one-year securities
E (R1) = the rate expected on one-year securities one year from now
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(b) Liquidity Preference Theory
Proponents of this theory believe that, according to the term structure of interest rates, investors are risk-averse
and will demand a premium for securities with longer maturities. A premium is offered by way of greater forward
rates in order to attract investors to longer term securities. The premium received normally increases at a
decreasing rate due to downward pressure from the decreasing volatility of interest rates as the term to maturity
increases.
(c) Market Segmentation Theory
It assumes that bonds of different maturities are not substitutes of each other. It implies that markets are
completely segmented and the interest rate at each maturity is determined separately. The theory can explain
every type of yield curve an investor comes across in the market. The theory can also explain that if an investor
wants to go out of from one segment, he will want to be compensated for taking on the additional risk. This is
also known as the “Preferred habitat theory”.
2.5 Corporate borrowing and default risk
Corporate borrowings can be in the form of numerous short term, medium term and long term debt instruments.
They can take the form of bank credit lines, bonds, commercial paper etc. The rate at which a corporate
borrows depends on numerous factors relating to its background, financial strength, future growth potential,
collaterals etc. The higher the risk of default / non-payment of dues which the lender perceives the higher will be
the expectation on yield required.
1. Cost of borrowing and default risk
As discussed earlier, there is an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates. As rates increase,
the price of bonds comes down.
st
On 1 January 20X3, the price of risk-free bonds with one-year maturity was 10%. PZB Ltd issued instruments
with par value of Tshs1000 with one-year maturity. Let’s analyse the price at which they bonds would quote.
In case of risk free bonds the present value is calculated as
Interest @10% Tshs100 and principal Tshs1000
PV =
Tshs1000 + Tshs100
= Tshs1000
1.10
Let’s assume that PZB Ltd is facing a financial crunch and there is a 25% probability that it will default. In this
case the payoffs to the bond holders is calculated as
Full payment
Default
Pay off
Tshs1100
0
Probability
0.75
0.25
The payment expected = Tshs1100 (0.75) + 0 (0.25)
= Tshs825
The bonds would quote at Tshs825 / 1.1 = Tshs750
Therefore, in this case the required return on the bond is
Tshs1100
Tshs750
− 1 = 46.67%
In the above calculations we assume that the risk of default is wholly diversifiable and so there is no market risk.
However, defaults normally occur during economic downturns and let’s assume a market risk premium of 2%
and expected return as 11%. Therefore, the bond would quote at Tshs825/1.12 = 736.61
Yield = (1100/737) -1 = 49.25%
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st
Ruex Ltd issued bonds with maturity of 5 years @12% coupon payable semi-annually on 1 January 20X3. The
bonds with par value of Tshs1000 are currently trading at Tshs920. Interest is paid through direct credit to
st
th
investor account on 31 March and 30 September.
Required:
Calculate the YTM of the bond.
2. Credit rating
An investment in a company’s equity or debt is accompanied by a risk. Credit risk is the risk that a borrower will
not repay the loan and default on the borrowing. A company desiring to issue bonds will need a credit rating
Many credit rating agencies such as Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, perform financial research and
analysis on commercial and government entities. They research the financial health of issuers of bonds and
assign ratings to the bonds being offered. A bond's rating helps a lender to assess that bond's credit quality
compared to other bonds. These agencies rank the creditworthiness of borrowers using a standardised ratings
scale. These agencies address the possibility that a financial obligation will not be honoured as promised. Such
ratings reflect both the likelihood of default and the probability of a financial loss suffered in the event of default.
Standard & Poor uses the Monte Carlo method to model the asset value correlation. Standard & Poor uses
a plus or minus indicator. For example, A+ is better than A, and A is better than A-.
Moody's Investor Services uses a numerical indicator for bond ratings. For example, A1 is better than Baa1(but not better than Aa).
Diagram 8: Bond ratings
(a) Credit ratings and bond yield
Credit ratings affect a bond's yield and the return that investors expect on the bond.
A highly rated bond usually has a lower yield. This is because the bond issuer does not have to offer a high
coupon rate in order to attract investors.
A lower rated bond usually has a higher yield. This is because the investors require an incentive to
compensate for the higher risk associated with the bond.
Diagram 9: Effects of credit rating on bond yield
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(b) Credit spread over risk-free
A credit spread represents the difference in yield between different debt instruments due to different credit
quality. It reflects the additional net yield a lender can earn from a debt with higher credit risk relative to one with
lower credit risk. The credit spread of a particular loan is often quoted in relation to the yield on a credit risk-free
benchmark security or reference rate.
Credit spread = Yield on corporate debt + Risk-free rate
(c) Cost of debt capital
The cost of debt capital of a company is calculated using the following formula:
Cost of debt capital = (Credit spread + Risk-free rate) (1 – Tax rate)
A corporate bond has a maturity of 5 years and is taxable at 20%. Assuming the five-year risk-free rate to be
10% and the credit spread to be 200 basis points (i.e. 2%), calculate the cost of debt capital.
Answer
Cost of debt capital = (2% + 10%) (1 – 0.20) = 9.6%
3. Perform bond refund analysis.
[Learning Outcomes c]
3.1 Bond refund
In certain situations, a corporate may want to refund / redeem the bond prior to the maturity date. This would be
undertaken with the idea of replacing the same with a debt carrying lower interest rate.
st
Zimco Ltd has issued 12% bonds on 1 March 20Y9 with maturity of 10 years. During review of debt undertaken
st
on 1 September 20X3, the one of the directors proposes redemption of the bonds and replacing the same with
bank loan @ 10%. This is because of the revised interest rate scenario with rates having declined over the past
8 quarters.
The finance manager is of the view that bond refund and debt replacement are not simple. Numerous factors
need to be considered before performing the same.
3.2 Bond refund parameters
The following parameters influence the bond refund analysis
1. The interest rate scenario – whether rates are expected to fall further or even out. Further decisions on
switching from fixed rate loans to floating rate loans or vice versa is also critical.
2. The estimated savings in interest outflow from replacement of debt (post tax)
3. Flotation costs that would be incurred on new issue
4. Tax saving impacts on interest outflow, floatation costs etc.
5. Period between incurring new debt and replacement of old debt
3.3 The refunding analysis
We can understand a refund analysis by working out an example given below.
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Existing debt (bond details)
Par value
12%
original maturity
remaining maturity
6,000
Call premium
35%
New bond issue
Coupon rate
maturity
6,000
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Tshs million
80,000 coupon rate
30
25 original flotation costs
12% Tax rate
10%
25 flotation costs
Period during which both bonds would exist (months)
Treasury rate (annual)
7%
1
In order to perform a bond refund analysis we need to:
Analyse the impact each of the above parameters on the company cash flow
Calculate
the additional costs that need to be incurred for the bond refund and replacement
NPV of the saving in interest outflow over the period of new debt
Compute the result and arrive at decision whether the bond refund is feasible depending on whether the
NPV is positive or negative.
(Amounts in Tshs million)
Initial investment outlay to refund old bonds
Call premium on old bonds
After-tax call premium
New flotation cost
9,600
6,240
6,000
Old flotation costs already expensed
1,000
Remaining flotation costs to expense
Tax savings from old flotation costs
5,000
1,750
Additional interest on old bonds (post tax)
520
Interest earned on investment in T-bonds
after tax
303
Total investment
10,707
Annual flotation cost, tax effects:
Annual tax savings on new flotation
84.00
Tax savings lost on old flotation
70.00
Total tax effects
Interest savings on refund
Interest on old bond (post tax)
Interest on new bond (post tax)
Net after tax interest savings
Annual cash flows
14.00
6,240
5,200
1,040
1,054.00
NPV of refunding decision
1,576.21
80,000 X12%
9000X ( 1- 0.35)
given
(6000/30) x (original maturity - remaining maturity )
original flotation cost -old flotation cost expensed
Remaining flotation costs to expense/ tax rate
Par value x coupon rate x time gap between issues
(1-Tax rate)
Par value x Treasury rate x( time gap between
issues/12) x(1-Tax rate)
After tax call premium + New flotation cost +
addition interest on old issue (after tax)- ( tax
saving from old flotation costs +interest earned on
treasury bond, after tax)
flotation cost X tax rate/ maturity period
original flotation cost X tax rate/ original maturity
period
84-70
Par value X old coupon rate x( 1- tax rate)
Par value X new issue coupon rate x( 1- tax rate)
6240-5200
14 + 1040
PV@7% discount rate, for 25 years onTshs1054
m) Minus Total investment, Tshs10707m
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Identify the variables that need to be considered before a decision to refund is taken.
Answers to Test Yourself
Answer to TY 1
Market price of the bond:
Interest is payable semi-annually:
1. Number of periods: The bonds have a 6-year maturity. Therefore, there are 12 interest payments instalments.
2. Interest payments: The bonds will pay interest of Tshs10,000 per year (i.e.10% x Tshs100,000) per annum,
which is Tshs5,000 semi-annually.
3. Required rate: The required rate of return is 8%. Therefore, the required rate is 4% semi-annually.
Using 4% as the discount rate and 12 periods, we find out the PV factor of the interest from the PVOA table and
the PV factor of the principal from the PV table.
Period
Interest
Principal
Cash flow
PV factor
PV (Tshs)
(1-12)
5,000
9.385
46,925
12
1,00,000
0.625
62,500
Market price
1,09,425
Answer to TY 2
Lets compute the YTM (yield to maturity).
Annual interest = Tshs1000 X12/100 = Tshs120
n
Bond price = Annual interest X PVIFAkd + M X (PVIF
n)
kd
At 12% yield the value of the bond is Tshs 1000, therefore for a value of Tshs920 the yield must be greater
than 12%.
At 13% discount rate
Tshs120 X PVIFA13,5 + M X (PVIF 13,5)
Tshs 120 X 3.517 + Tshs1000 X 0.543
422 + 543 = Tshs965.
Since with 13% discount rate the value of the bond is greater than Tshs920 we compute with a higher rate
@15%
Tshs120 X PVIFA15,5 + M X (PVIF 15,5)
Tshs 120 X 3.352 + Tshs1000 X 0.497
402 + 497 = Tshs 899
Since value of bond at 15% discount rate is less than Tshs920, the YTM lies between 13% and 15%. We find
the exact value through interpolation
13% +
965 - 920
965 − 899
X 2% = 14.36%
180
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Answer to TY 3
Variables that need consideration for a decision to refund.
1. Cost savings by issuing new bonds
2. The costs of new issue .i.e. floatation costs
3. The macroeconomic environment that would influence the interest rate scenario – whether rates are
expected to fall further or even out. Further decisions on switching from fixed rate loans to floating rate loans
or vice versa is also critical.
4. Tax saving impacts on interest outflow, floatation costs etc.
5. Period between incurring new debt and replacement of old debt
Quick Quiz
1. State True or False
(a) There is a direct relationship between interest rate and price of the bond.
(b) The bond would trade at a discount when the required rate of return is less than the coupon rate.
(c) Credit rating is used to evaluate the credit risk of a corporate borrower.
2. Fill in the blanks:
(a) In case of
yield curve, the long-term rates are lower than the short term rates. (b) A
highly rated bond has a
yield.
(c) Modified duration is used to measure
.
(d) Yield to maturity considers the
of money.
Answers to Quick Quiz
1.
3.
(a) False
(b) False
(c) True
(a) Inverted
(b) Lower
(c) Price volatility
(d) Time value
Self Examination Questions
Question 1
A bond has the following characteristics:
Nominal value = Tshs10,000,
Yield to maturity of 9% (with annual compounding frequency),
11% coupon rate and
Annual coupon frequency
Bond period is 5 years
Required:
Calculate the price of the 5-year bond.
Question 2
Samuel has purchased a three-year bond with a par value of Tshs100,000 and coupon rate of 11%. The
coupon is paid semi-annually, and the market is rate10%.
Required:
(a) Determine the Macaulay duration of the bond.
(b) Determine the modified duration.
Bond
Analysis:
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Bond
Analysis:
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Question 3
TWP Plc is a company listed on the Dar-es-Salaam stock exchange. The company proposes to substitute its
existing bonds through issue of new bonds. Following are the details of the bond:
Particulars
Amount
Coupon
Tenure (yrs.)
Balance term (yrs.)
Call premium
Issue cost
Tax rate
T-bill rate
Present bond
Tshs 2000 m
14.50%
25
20
4%
30%
8%
Proposed bond
Tshs 2000 m
12%
25
Tshs 60m
Tshs 90 million is the unamortised cost of issue of earlier bonds which would be written off once the bonds
are called.
Required:
As the finance manager of the firm you are expected to perform bond refund analysis.
Answers to Self-Examination
Answer to SEQ 1
The coupon for Tshs10,000 @ 11% = Tshs 1,100
= Tshs 4278.62 + Tshs 6499.30 = Tshs 10,777.92
Answer to SEQ 2
(a) The interest received (cash flow) @ 11% on Tshs100,000 = Tshs 11,000 per annum. Therefore, semi-annual
coupon is Tshs 5500. We use the PV tables for each term individually.
Time Cash Flow Interest Factor Present Value
(t)
(10%)
(1/(1+i)t
C*1/(1+i)t
1
2
3
4
5
6
6
5,500.00
5,500.00
5,500.00
5,500.00
5,500.00
5,500.00
100,000.00
0.9524
0.9070
0.8638
0.8227
0.7835
0.7462
0.7462
5,238.10
4,988.66
4,751.11
4,524.86
4,309.39
4,104.18
74,621.54
102,537.85
Weighted PV
t*C*1/(1+i)t
5,238.10
9,977.32
14,253.32
18,099.45
21,546.97
24,625.11
447,729.24
541,469.51 182
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Answer to SEQ 3
Particulars
Amount
Coupon
Tenure (yrs.)
Balance term (yrs.)
Call premium
Issue cost
Tax rate
Calculation of investment
Par value
Add call premium
Total
Cost of new bonds
Par value
Issue costs
Net
Tax savings on call premium paid and unamortised cost
0.3 X(80+90)
Total investment outlay
Calculation of bond refund NPV
Interest savings @(2000 X (14.5-12))
Post Tax @70% of above
Less Tax saving on amortisation
[0.3 (90-60)/5]
Cash savings
PVIFA (8%, 25 years)
less investment
NPV
Present bond
Tshs2000m
14.50%
10
5
4%
30%
Proposed bond
Tshs2000m
12%
10
Tshs60m
Tshs million
2000
80
2080
A
2000
60
1940
B
51
C
89
A-B-C
Tshs million
50.0
35.0
1.8
33.2
132.6
89
43.6
D1
SECTION D
Futures, options and swaps: 183
FINANCIAL ENGINEERING
AND PLANNING
STUDY GUIDE D1: FUTURES, OPTIONS AND
SWAPS
Interest rates have an important bearing on the financial planning of any organisation. Interest rate movements
impact the cost of debt. They act as a guide to shareholders as to what they should expect as a fair return.
Interest rates therefore also impact share prices.
The rate of interest is a function of numerous factors. It is influenced by the amount of loan, time period, risk
measured in terms of the credit quality of the borrower, interest ratio scenario in the economy etc. Furthermore,
the interest rates are subject to fluctuations affecting the cash outflow of the firm. The increase in interest
outflow beyond a certain point results in high gearing and can jeopardise the financial position of the firm.
Managing interest rate risk is a critical part of financial engineering and planning.
In this study guide we shall discuss the various tools available to the finance manager in terms of interest rate
futures, forwards, options and swaps. The hedging strategies using each of these helps in managing interest
rate risk.
a) Identify the various features of interest rate futures, interest rate options, interest rate forward contracts
and interest rate swaps.
b) Determine the prices of interest rate futures, interest rate options, interest rate forward contracts and
interest rate swaps.
c) Advise on hedging strategies using interest rate futures, interest rate options, interest rate forward
contracts and interest rate swaps.
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1. Identify the various features of interest rate futures, interest rate options, interest rate
forward contracts and interest rate swaps.
Determine the prices of interest rate futures, interest rate options, interest rate forward
contracts and interest rate swaps.
[Learning Outcomes a and b]
Interest rate risk is the risk that changes in market interest rates might adversely affect a company’s financial
condition. The immediate impact of a change in interest rates is on a company’s earnings. The change in the
interest rates also impacts a bank’s financial condition by affecting its net interest income.
A company can obtain debt at a fixed rate or a floating rate of interest. The uncertainty in interest rates exposes
a borrowing company to the following types of risk:
Fixed interest rates prove to be favourable when interest rates are rising. However, in a falling interest rate
scenario, companies that have fixed interest debt will pay higher interest, thereby reducing the profitability of
their operations.
Floating interest rates prove to be favourable when interest rates are falling. However, in a rising interest
rate scenario, companies that have floating interest rate debt will pay higher interest, thereby reducing the
profitability of their operations.
Similarly, for a depositing company, a rise in interest rates will be favourable to a company with floating interest
rate exposure and a fall in interest rates will be favourable to a company with fixed interest rate exposure.
Diagram 1: Interest rates risk
A company takes out a loan at a rate of interest equal to LIBOR (London Inter Bank Offer Rate) plus 0.1%.
LIBOR is 5% at the start of the loan. The rate is to be reset each quarter with reference to the current threemonth LIBOR. If commercial interest rates rise, the company runs the risk of increased interest payments.
Hence the company tries to ensure that its funding costs do not rise above a certain level via hedging its
exposure, or it may even consider paying a fixed rate of interest.
Suppose, on the other hand, the company borrows at a fixed rate of 5.3% for two years. If LIBOR rises to 5.3%
or above, the company will be better off than if it had taken out a floating rate loan. However, if interest rates
remain unchanged or even fall, the company faces the risk of being locked into borrowing at above market
rates. Therefore, the company may want to hedge this risk by entering into a derivative contract that will pay out
if interest rates fall.
It should be noted that risk management essentially involves judgement and that no hedging strategy can
completely eliminate the interest rate risk. Instead, it could minimise the risk and/or transform the risk from one
type into another. Therefore, there is no absolute certainty that a chosen hedging strategy would necessarily
improve the earnings in the short run.
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1.1 Interest rate futures (IRF)
An interest rate futures contact is a futures contract with an interest-bearing instrument as its underlying asset.
The underlying asset could be Treasury bills and notes, certificates of deposit (CD), commercial paper (CP), etc.
Buying a futures contract means committing to buy the underlying asset on some future date at a price agreed
today. Selling a futures contract commits you to selling the underlying asset. In the case of interest rate futures,
the commodity is a government loan stock (a treasury bill).
It is important to understand the relationship between market interest rates and Treasury bill prices.
A rise in the market interest rates leads to a decline in Treasury bill prices. If you are a borrower, you are afraid
that:
Interest rates will rise.
Treasury bill prices will fall.
Conversely, when market interest rates fall, Treasury bill prices rise. If you are a lender you are afraid that:
Interest rates will fall.
Treasury bill prices will rise.
1. The features of interest rate futures (IRF) are discussed below.
(a) IRF are exchanged traded derivatives i.e. they can be traded only on organised exchanges.
(b) Standardised features:
(i) Size of the contract: for a particular exchange all future contracts have a standard size. In case of the
London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE) the standard lot size is £500,000. Thus, in order
to hedge an exposure of £4 million, eight contracts would be necessary, each of which would be of
£500,000.
(ii) Margin requirement: the traders are required to keep a margin with the exchange as a safety deposit. The
gains / losses for each trading day are adjusted against the margin. Although all futures transactions have a
buyer and a seller, because the exchange is regulating the trade, the obligation of each trader in IRF is
towards the exchange and not towards the counter party.
(iii) Delivery dates: these derivative contracts have pre-determined delivery dates when the contract matures.
Most futures contracts are usually not delivered, but are cancelled by taking an equal and opposite position.
The mark to market (gains and losses) mentioned above are calculated every day as the difference
between the futures settlement price of that day and of the preceding day. The positions can also be rolled
over although the costs would need to be incurred.
(c) Tick values: to capture even the smallest movement in future prices, tick value is expressed in terms of
basis points – one basis point being 0.01% of the amount of the underlying asset. In the case of futures
contracts, the price movement is expressed in terms of ticks. It is the minimum gain or loss which may be
recorded on a contract. This value varies from contract to contract, depending on the standard size of the
contracts traded.
(d) Transparency: since trades happen through the exchange, all the parties are provided with complete
information. This ensures transparency in dealings and promotes efficiency.
2. Determining futures price
(a) Treasury bill futures
This is based on the 90-day US Treasury bill. The price of the T-bill is the face value minus the interest which
has lapsed. Let assume a 180-day T-bill is trading at a discount of 3%. The price per $1 = 1-0.03 (180/360)
=$0.985. If the investor holds it till maturity he would receive $1. While trading, the price is given as 100 minus
the rate quoted as a percentage, priced into the contract by the futures.
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(b) In the case of Eurodollar Futures, the benchmark rate is the LIBOR (London interbank offer rate). If the rate
of a contract is 6% in the futures market for a 90-day paper, the quoted price is 100-6 =94. If each IRF
contract has a notional principal of £500,000 then the actual futures price is: £500,000 (1-0.06 (90/360)) =
£492,500
The prices vary on a daily basis and are adjusted against the margin accounts.
A three-month Tshs IRF is quoted on a recognised investment exchange. Its delivery date is 21 March 20X7.
The value of the IRF reflects the market’s view of what the future short-term interest rates will be on 21 March.
The quoted price of the futures contract indicates the implied forward rate. If the futures contract is trading at
95.60 on a particular day (say 1 March 20X7), this implies that the market believes the three-month LIBOR will
be 4.40% (100 – 95.60) on 21 March.
Suppose the market expects interest rates to fall. On 3 March, the IRF is quoted at 95.65. In other words, the
market expects that the three-month LIBOR on 21 March will be 4.35% (100 – 95.65).
This means that someone anticipating a fall in interest rates might buy the IRF on 1 March at 95.60 and sell on
3 March at 95.65, making a profit.
Assuming that the underlying asset for the IRF is a notional three-month deposit of Tshs500million, then for
every 0.01% change in interest rates, the interest earned on such a deposit would change by:
Tshs500million x 0.01% x 3/12 = Tshs12,500
Each IRF contract is based on a notional Tshs500 million deposit which is also called the unit of trading.
Tshs12,500 is called the tick value which is the standard minimum price movement on the particular contract
concerned. Here the price of the future alters by 0.05 (95.65 – 95.60), or 5 ticks. So the profit on each contract
would be equal to the tick value x ticks per contract = Tshs12,500 x 5 ticks = Tshs62,500.
SUMMARY
1.2 Interest rate options
Interest rate options are used by investors, borrowers and traders to manage interest rate risk exposures. This
product is available on payment of an upfront fee, called the premium.
An interest rate option is an option on a notional borrowing or a deposit which guarantees a minimum or a
maximum rate of interest for the option holder (called strike price). The option is cash settled.
An interest rate call option guarantees the borrower a maximum rate of interest whereas an interest rate put
option guarantees the depositor a minimum rate of interest.
1. Features of options
(a) Interest rate options could be over-the-counter or exchange-traded options. An OTC interest rate call option
is similar to an option to buy a Forward Rate Agreement and is used by borrowing companies. However, in
the case of FRA, there is an obligation to make and receive payment at a future date. In interest rate
options, there is a right to make one interest payment and receive another.
(b) Interest rate options have an exercise price or strike price for the underlying rate.
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(c) An interest rate call option is an option where the holder has a right to receive a make a known interest
payment and receive an unknown interest payment. The reverse is true for an interest rate put option. A
borrower requires a combination of call options to hedge his interest rate risk. A lender requires a
combination of put options.
(d) The options are settled on expiry in cash.
2. Option payoffs
(a) OTC interest rate options
(i) If at the expiry of the option, the underlying rate at expiry is above the agreed strike price, the company
should exercise the call option. If it does so, the company would receive cash from the seller of the call
option.
(ii) If the underlying rate at expiry is equal to or lower than the agreed strike price, then the option contract
could be allowed to lapse.
(b) Exchange-traded interest rate options
Exchange-traded options are usually American style options and could be exercised at any time.
(i) The buyer of an exchange traded call option has the right (but not the obligation) to buy an interest rate
futures contract. Therefore, a depositor concerned with a fall in interest rates should buy IRF contracts or
buy interest rate call options.
(ii) The buyer of an exchange-traded put option has the right (but not the obligation) to sell an interest rate
futures contract. Therefore, a borrower concerned about a rise in interest rates should sell interest rate
futures or buy interest rate put options.
Mr. X is an option buyer of a LIBOR for a 90-day period. The notional principal is Tshs8,000 million and he
chooses an exercise rate of 5%. If the 180-day LIBOR quotes at 5.5%, he will exercise the option, the call is in
the money. The payment to Mr. X will be
Tshs8000 m X (0.055-0.05) X (180/360) =Tshs20m
For an interest rate call the payoff on expiration is:
Days in underlying rate
(Notional principal) Max (0, rate on underlying instrument on expiry – exercise rate) x
360
The days in the underlying rate are the specific days to maturity of instrument e.g. 90 day or 360 days.
For an interest rate put, the payoff on expiration is:
(Notional principal) Max(0, exercise rate – rate on underlying instrument on expiry) x
Days in underlying rate
360
If the underlying rate is greater than the exercise rate, the put option expires out-of-the-money. The hedging
techniques with interest rate put / call options referred to as cap, floor and collar are discussed in the subsequent
sections.
Brand Ltd wants to borrow Tshs20 million in three months’ time. The three-month LIBOR is currently quoting at
5%. The company is concerned about a rise in the interest rates and it does not want to pay more than 5% for
its loan. Assume it is now 1 December.
The company can buy four April LIBOR Sterling put option contracts of Tshs5million each with a strike price of
95. For this, the company has been quoted a price of 0.15 per contract. This translates into a cost of 15 ticks per
option contract. The cost of each tick is Tshs125.0 (Tshs5 m X 0.001 X3/12). Therefore, the cost of four option
contracts will be equal to 15 x 4 x Tshs125 = Tshs7500.
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If LIBOR rises to 6% on the date of exercise, the company will exercise its option and sell the future contracts at
95. Assuming no basis risk, the futures price would have dropped to 94 (100 – 6). Therefore, the company
makes a 1% gain by buying futures at 94 and selling them at 95. This translates into a gain of 100 ticks at
Tshs125 each per contract. This results in a total profit of 100 x Tshs125.0 x 4 = Tshs50,000 on the option. This
amount is equal to the cost of borrowing which is Tshs20million x 1% x 3/12 = Tshs50,000.
Therefore, by incurring a premium cost of Tshs7500, Brand Ltd has guaranteed a maximum borrowing rate of
5%
However, if LIBOR falls below the strike price of the option, the company could simply allow the option to lapse,
thereby losing just the premium. If, for example LIBOR is 4.5% on the date of exercise, Brand Ltd can take
advantage of the fall in interest rates by borrowing at 4.5%, allowing the option to lapse losing the premium of
Tshs7500.
The option pricing models have been discussed in detail in Study Guide E3 of this study text.
SUMMARY
Brick and Burn Ltd has an upcoming project for which it would require finance to the tune of Tshs25 million. This
project is estimated to commence in three months from date. The three-month LIBOR is currently quoting at 5%.
The company is concerned about a rise in the interest rates and proposes to use interest rate options to hedge
the interest rate risk.
The company can buy four 3-month LIBOR Sterling put option contracts of Tshs5million each with a strike price
of 95. For this, the company has been quoted a price of 0.20 per contract.
Required:
Calculate the option pay off if LIBOR rises to 5.5%
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1.3 Forward rate agreements (FRAs)
A forward rate agreement (FRA) is an agreement between two parties to fix the interest rate in advance on a
notional amount for a specified period which would commence at some agreed future date.
An FRA enables a company to protect itself against interest risk by fixing the effective rate of interest before the
intended borrowing or deposit date. The parties to the contract agree to pay / receive the difference between the
market rate of interest on the effective date and the rate according to the contract.
The bank and the customer enter into an FRA to fix a future rate of interest to cover a specified amount of
money to be lent or borrowed for a specified period of time in the future. The FRA relates only to the
predetermined rate of interest on a sum of money and not to the actual sum of money borrowed or lent. The
borrowing / lending is the base transaction which happens at the prevailing rate of interest.
1. Features of the FRA
(a) A forward rate contract is not an exchange traded contract. It is an over-the-counter (OTC) contract which
can be made to suit the needs of the parties.
(b) Usually, the assumption underlying the contract is that borrowing or lending is benchmarked against the
LIBOR or the specific country’s inter-bank rate.
(c) On maturity of the contract, the profit / loss is settled in cash. In the case of an FRA between the bank and a
party, if at the time of maturity the LIBOR is above the agreed forward rate, the party pays the difference to
the bank.
(d) FRA is an off-balance sheet item.
(e) There are no transaction costs
(f) Unlike the IFR, there are no initial or variation margins and it does not involve a central clearing facility. It is
entered into by the bank and a customer.
(g) The transaction can be closed at any stage by entering into a new and opposing FRA at a new price or
settling the contract before expiry.
(h) The contract can be tailor made to meet specific customer requirements
2. Advantages of an FRA
(a) No fee or premium is required at the time of entering an FRA.
(b) One can reverse the position of an FRA by taking an equal and opposite position, called offsetting. The FRA
could be settled by either receiving cash or paying cash.
(c) An FRA is not a replacement for borrowings or investments i.e. it is off balance sheet (SOFP).
(d) The terms of an FRA are highly flexible since the notional amount; currency and the contract period can be
negotiated between the parties.
(e) FRAs provide protection against an adverse movement of interest rates.
(f) It helps in planning the cash flow as the interest rate is known.
3. Limitations of an FRA
(a) FRA only protect from adverse movements. The party does not benefit from favourable movements.
(b) FRAs are bilateral agreements that can be closed only by negotiation between the two parties. This makes
them illiquid and non-tradable.
(c) FRAs are subject to counterparty risk since if one party wishes to reverse the contract; it is forced to go to
the same counterparty.
4. Pricing and settlement of FRA
Under FRA the underlying instrument is the interest payment in a particular currency.
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Let’s consider an FRA for a 180-day LIBOR where the bank quotes a rate of 6%. Let’s assume the party
believes that rates would increase while the bank believes that rates would decline. In this case, the Bank would
short the rate and benefit if the rate declines. The contract is for a notional principal of Tshs1000 million. The
rate on which the contract is based is the 180- day LIBOR. The FRA expires in 90 days.
The 180-day LIBOR rate is 6.5%, 90 days hence. The present value of the principal at that time would be
Tshs1000 m
180
1+ 0.065
360
The party would receive the following payment from the Bank
180
(0.065 − 0.06)
360
Tshs1000 m
= Tshs 2,421,310
180
1 + 0.065
360
In the above case, if the underlying rate is less than 6%, the difference would be paid by the party to the bank.
From the above it is clear that the difference between the actual rate on expiry of the contract and the agreed
rate is settled. However, it has to be adjusted for the period of the instrument, 180 days in the above case.
Furthermore, the pay-out has to be adjusted for the fact that the payment occurs 180 days later. We therefore
need to discount the pay-out at the current LIBOR. Therefore, the price for the party expecting the rate
to increase i.e. going long is
Actual rate - FRA rate
Days in underlying rate
Notional principal
1 + underlying rate on expiry (
360
days in underlying rate
360
Where the actual rate is the rate on the underlying instrument on expiry of the FRA.
1.4 Interest rate swaps
An interest rate swap is an agreement whereby two counterparties agree to exchange a stream of interest
payments based on a notional amount of principal with each other over an agreed period of time.
In the case of interest rate swaps there is an exchange of the interest streams. The principal is not included.
The interest rate swap is entered into to hedge against interest rate fluctuations or to obtain an advantage in
terms of a lower effective rate of interest after the swap.
Company A has a debt of Tshs100 million on which a floating interest of LIBOR plus a credit spread of 0.5% is
payable and Company B has a borrowing of Tshs100 million on which a fixed interest rate of 9% is payable. A
and B enter into an interest rate swap transaction under which Company A agrees to pay Company B, a fixed
interest rate of 9% and Company B agrees to pay Company A, a floating interest rate swap of LIBOR plus 0.5%.
This transaction can be diagrammatically represented as follows:
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1. Features of interest rate swaps
(a) Both the parties would benefit from the swap arrangement only if there is a quality spread differential.
Bell Ltd and Organe Ltd are two companies which have borrowed on floating rate and fixed rate basis
respectively. They propose to enter into an interest rate swap arrangement. The rates quoted by each party for
the present and proposed arrangement are
Company
Bell Ltd
Organe Ltd
Fixed rate
13%
13.5%
Floating rate
TIBOR + 1%
TIBOR + 2%
Bell Ltd has an advantage in terms of both fixed and floating rate loans. The differential spread is calculated as:
(i) Fixed rate 13.5% - 13% = 0.5%
(ii) Floating rate (TIBOR + 2%) - (TIBOR + 1%) = 1%
Combined differential = 1% - 0.5% = 0.5%
The swap is possible only because this combined differential exists.
(b) Interest rate swaps exchanges a floating rate borrowing with a fixed rate borrowing and vice versa.
(c) Although it is based on a ‘notional’ underlying sum of money, it is concerned only with the interest flows,
there is no exchange of principal repayment obligations.
(d) Each party’s primary obligation under the loan agreement continues. The lender needs to be paid under the
terms of the original contract.
(e) Swaps are flexible as regards duration and amount.
(f) The swap contract is separate from the underlying loan agreement.
(g) It is an off-balance sheet transaction.
3. Types of swaps
There are three types of interest rate swaps:
(a) Floating to fixed interest rate swap
Floating to fixed interest rate swaps are used by companies to fix the interest obligation on their floating rate
borrowings. Under these swaps, companies make fixed rate payments and receive floating rate payments that
can be used to offset the floating interest obligations on a corresponding principal amount of these borrowings.
Assume that a company has a four-year bank loan on which it needs to pay interest at the rate of one month
LIBOR plus a credit spread and is therefore exposed to increases in LIBOR over the life of the facility.
To avoid the interest rate risk associated with changes in LIBOR, the company enters into a floating to fixed
interest rate swap with the bank. In this contract, the bank agrees to make payments to the company based on
LIBOR.
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In return for receiving LIBOR payments under the swap, the company pays a fixed rate to the bank. Since the
LIBOR rate paid to the company matches the floating rate index on the bank loan, the company's net interest
expense is the fixed interest rate plus the credit spread.
Benefits
Flexible risk management: companies can enter into a swap at any time, for any term and on any portion
of their variable rate debt.
Independent hedge: borrowers can allocate the benefits of any of their swaps to any of their borrowings
since swaps and loans are distinct facilities. In addition, when swaps are executed against a floating index
such as LIBOR, the borrowers benefit whenever credit spreads on their underlying LIBOR-based debt
facilities are reduced during the term of their swaps.
(b) Fixed to floating interest rate swap
Just as a floating to fixed interest rate swap eliminates a company's risk to floating rates, a fixed to floating
interest rate swap allows companies to undertake a floating rate exposure. A company with fixed rate debt may
require an exposure to floating rates in order to achieve immediate interest savings or a better asset-liability
match.
Assume a company borrows Tshs500 million for four years and is paying a fixed interest rate. The company
wishes to convert its fixed rate interest expense to a floating rate basis for the next four years so as to realise
immediate interest savings.
The company is obligated to pay a fixed rate on this debt for four years.
The bank will pay the company a swap fixed rate equal to the fixed rate on its debt for the life of the four-year
swap contract.
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In return for receiving fixed rate payments under the swap, the company will make payments based on floating
rate to the bank based on a floating rate (for example LIBOR + 1.00%) for the four-year term of the swap
contract.
Benefits
Immediate cost savings: if the long-term rates are higher than the short-term rates, the fixed to floating
interest rate swap results in immediate interest savings since a company can convert its interest expense
from a long-term fixed rate basis to a cheaper short-term floating rate basis.
No refinancing requirements: companies can use fixed to floating interest rate swaps to structure their
fixed versus floating interest expense profile without having to refinance their existing debt.
(c) Basis or money market interest rate swap
In the case of basis swaps, the two series of cash flows to be exchanged are based on floating interest rates but
each series is calculated using a different basis (e.g. one series may be calculated using LIBOR and the other
series might be calculated using the rate on commercial paper).
(d) Cross-currency swap
A cross-currency swap is an interest rate swap in which both series of interest payments are made in two
different currencies. It involves the exchange of the principals at the beginning and re-exchange at maturity.
It should be noted that a cross-currency swap is different from a FOREX swap.
Advantages of interest rate swaps
The company can reduce its cost of borrowing in a convenient manner without having to refinance the
existing debt from another lender.
Interest rate swaps can be tapped by borrowers who have a relatively low credit standing and do not have
ready access to finance.
Interest rate swaps help to restructure the debt profile without actually redeeming and refinancing the loans.
These can be arranged for longer time frames to hedge against interest rate fluctuations.
(e) Determining prices of interest rate swaps
In the case of an interest rate swap, there are two parts. The fixed interest part and the floating interest part. In
the case of the first part the cash flows can be easily determined based on the agreed coupon rate. However for
the floating rate part the cash flows are not static. They would vary with movements in interest rates.
Fixed interest part of the swap
Where,
Pfi = present value of cash flows for the fixed interest rate part,
N = notional principal amount,
R = fixed coupon rate,
n = number of coupons payable between value date and maturity date,
i- 1,i = accrual factor between dates i - 1 and i based on the specified accrual method, and
Di = discount factor on cash flow date i.
Floating rate part of the swap
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Pfl = present values of cash flows for floating interest part,
N = notional principal amount,
Fi-1, i = (implied) forward rate from date i - 1 to date i,
i- 1,i = accrual factor from date i - 1 to date i based on the specified accrual method, and
n = number of cash flows from settlement date to the maturity date, and
Di = discount factor on cash flow date i.
The difference between the values of the above two cash flows is the present value of the swap.
In case the party pays floating and receives fixed, the swap value is expressed as
Pswap = Pfixed - Pfloating
In case the party pays fixed and receives floating, the swap value is expressed as
Pswap = Pfloating - Pfixed
Orbit Ltd. and Comet Ltd. have borrowed a mortgage loans from a bank for a period of 5 year and 7 years
respectively. They have borrowed on floating rate and fixed rate basis respectively. They propose to enter into
an interest rate swap arrangement. The rates quoted by each party for the present and proposed arrangement
are:
Company
Bell Ltd.
Organe Ltd.
Floating rate
TIBOR * + 1.25%
TIBOR* + 2%
Fixed rate
14%
14.25%
* benchmark rate (Tanzania interbank rate)
Determine whether an Interest rate swap is feasible.
2. Advise on hedging strategies using interest rate futures, interest rate options, interest rate
forward contracts and interest rate swaps.
2.1 Hedging Strategies using interest rate futures
[Learning Outcome c]
A futures contract primarily involves fixing the price today of the interest rate contract to be sold or purchased at
a future date. A position should be taken in the futures market such that if you are apprehensive of a particular
outcome (given your underlying trading position) and that outcome were to happen, you make a profit on the
futures deal.
The profit made by entering into the futures transaction offsets the loss on the underlying trading position,
thereby minimising/eliminating the risk. The hedging strategy using interest rate futures involves analysing the
gain / loss from the futures contract together with the change in the interest outflow on the company’s liability on
account of interest rate movements.
Rule of thumb
If a borrowing company expects a fall in interest rates it must buy IRF contracts.
If a borrowing company expects a rise in interest rates it must sell IRF contracts to guard against loss from
interest rate fluctuation.
Similarly, if a depositing company expects a fall in interest rates, it should buy IRF contracts and if it expects a
rise in interest rates, then it should sell IRF contracts.
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Diagram 2: Hedging interest rate risk using IRF
The value of an IRF is directly related to interest rates. For example, if interest rates decrease, the price of the
contract increases. Every one basis point change in the interest rates causes a price change that results in
gains for the buyer and losses for the seller of the IRF. The traders in interest rate futures do not usually take
delivery of the financial instrument. The IRF is used either to hedge or to speculate on future interest rates and
security prices. For example, a pension fund manager might use interest rate futures to hedge the pension
fund’s bond portfolio position. Speculators find financial futures attractive because of their potentially large
return on a small investment due to the low deposit requirement.
Usually, an exchange-traded interest rate futures contract has a notional deposit as the underlying asset. As
interest rates rise, the value of the notional deposit falls. Therefore, an IRF is quoted at a price which is equal to
100 minus the interest rate. The value of the contract rises and falls inversely to changes in interest rates. IRF
contracts usually run in three-month cycles. If a company intends to hedge its interest rate risk for a different
period, the number of futures contracts used to hedge should be adjusted by the following factor.
Interest period to be hedged
3 months
Number of Contracts =
Amount to be hedged Number of contract periods per year
x
Contract Amount
Number of exposure periods per year
The most important IRFs are London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE) three-month Sterling
time deposits, US Treasury bonds and three-month Eurodollar contracts.
A company is planning to borrow Tshs60 billion in one month’s time for a period of three months. It fears that
the future interest rate will rise from its current level of 6% and so decides to use interest rate futures to hedge
the position. The minimum contract size is Tshs5billion and the current price is 95. In one month’s time, the
interest rates have risen to 8% and the futures price is 93. The cash flow that results from the profit or loss on
the futures and the net interest cost to the company can be calculated as follows:
Number of contracts
60 billion 3
x = 12 contracts
5 billion 3
Number of tick movement per contract = (95 – 93) x 100 = 200
Value of one tick = Tshs5billion x 3/12 x 0.0001 = Tshs125,000
for everyone basis point
movement – 0.01%
Profit on futures = Ticks per contract x Tick value x Number of contracts = 200 x 125000 x 12 = Tshs300million
Net interest cost to the company for the three-month period is calculated as follows:
(Tshs60billion x 0.08 x 3/12) – Profit on futures
= Tshs1200 million – Tshs300million = Tshs900million.
This is an effective rate of interest on the borrowing of (Tshs900 million/Tshs60 billion) x 12/3 = 6%.
The company has “lost” 2% in the actual rate of interest rise from 6% to 8% and “gained” 2% from selling the
future at 95, buying it at 93.
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Hitec Electronics Ltd has planned to borrow Tshs100million for 3 months beginning next month (in early July
20X6) and expects to pay interest at LIBOR plus 0.6%. The company has had discussions with a bank to use 3month futures to hedge its exposure to increasing interest rates.
Hitec sells July 3 month futures at a price of 96.28. Hitec subsequently closes the position in early July 20X6 at
a price of 95.57. At the same time the company borrows Tshs100million at 5.03%, which is the current LIBOR
rate of 4.43 plus 0.6%.
Assume the unit of trading is Tshs5million, the tick size is 0.01% and the value of 1tick is Tshs125
Required:
What is the net interest amount payable by Hitec? Prove by calculations that the net amount payable on the
loan is the same as the amount locked through selling the futures.
2.2 Hedging interest rate risk using FRAs
Buying an FRA
If a company is worried about a rise in interest rate it should buy an FRA from the bank. This is the notional loan
at a fixed contracted rate where the bank (seller of FRA) agrees to compensate the buyer for any increase
above the fixed FRA rate.
Selling an FRA
If a company is worried about a fall in interest rates, it should sell an FRA to the bank. This is equivalent to a
notional deposit of the contracted amount where the seller will be reimbursed if the interest rate falls below the
contracted deposit rate.
A borrower with a fixed interest rate exposure should sell an FRA and a borrower with a floating interest rate
exposure should buy an FRA.
A depositor with a fixed interest rate exposure should buy an FRA and a depositor with a floating rate
exposure should sell an FRA.
Diagram 3: Hedging interest rate risk using FRAs
SUMMARY
Forward rate agreement (FRA)
to guarantee future borrowing
costs
buy FRA
to guarantee rate of return on
future deposit
sell FRA
Triya Ltd requires a Tshs20billion loan starting 3 months from today and repayable three months after that date
at a floating interest rate. The current floating interest rate is 9%. The company is unable to predict the
movement of interest rates in the coming three months. The board of directors of Beck Ltd believes that interest
rates may go up. To protect itself from an increase in interest costs, Beck Ltd decides to hedge its interest rate
risk by purchasing a “3-6 FRA” today.
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The bank is ready to guarantee a rate of 9.5% for the next three months. Therefore, by entering into a forward
interest rate agreement at 9.5%, Beck Ltd has limited its interest cost to Tshs475m for the future three-month
period, calculated as (Tshs20billion x 9.5% p.a.) x 3/12
If interest rates go up to, say, 10%, Beck Ltd has saved interest of Tshs25m (Tshs500million - Tshs475million)
by entering into an FRA.
However, if, after three months, interest rates fall to 8.5%, the interest cost would be Tshs425million
((Tshs20billion x 8.5% p.a.) x 3/12). In this case, Beck Ltd will have to pay Tshs50million (Tshs475 - Tshs425)
to the bank. Irrespective of what happens to interest rates in the three-month period, Beck will pay interest at
9.5% to the bank.
Although calculations have been shown on the basis of the number of months, an alternative way is to take the
exact number of days in the contract period. The denominator is either 360 or 365 days. The British Bankers’
Association recommends this method of calculation.
A company with a Tshs10 billion floating rate exposure with rollovers to be fixed by reference to the 6-month
LIBOR rate expects the short-term interest rates to increase. The next rollover date is due in 2 months. The
company seeks a quote from its banker for a 2-8 USD FRA quote (or a 6 month LIBOR 2 months hence). The
bank quotes a rate 6.68 and 6.71). The customer locks the offered rate 6.71.
Required:
Calculate the amount that the company gains or losses if the interest rate increases/decreases by 100 basis
points.
ABC Ltd proposes to take a 3-month loan of Tshs800 million in the next three month period at a rate linked to
LIBOR. To protect against an increase in interest rates in the interim, the company enters into an FRA, the
interest rate for which is set at 9.5% pa. The LIBOR falls to 6% pa.
In this case, the interest rates have decreased; ABC Ltd will have to pay the bank the interest rate differential,
calculated as
Tshs800 m X (9.5-6) X 90/360 = Tshs7 m
FRA in this case has not benefitted ABC Ltd.
2.3 Hedging interest rate risk using Interest rate swaps
Alfa Ltd and Beta Ltd are presently borrowing at the following interest rates:
Alfa Ltd
Beta Ltd
Canadian$ (fixed interest rate)
5.00%
7.00%
US $ (Floating rate)
LIBOR + 1.0%
LIBOR + 1.50%
Alfa Ltd intends to borrow US$ at a floating rate of interest and Beta Ltd wants to borrow Canadian$ at a fixed
rate of interest. A bank is planning to arrange a swap and wishes to keep a spread of 50 basis points. The rates
Alfa Ltd and Beta Ltd will end up paying if the swap is to be made equally attractive to both parties are
calculated as follows:
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Present interest rates (a)
Alpha borrows at fixed rate and Beta borrows at floating rate and
swaps its loan (b)
Gain / (loss) (a – b)
Transfer of loss from Alfa Ltd to Beta Ltd
Initial gain
Less: Payable to bank
Net gain
Transfer of gain
Final rate payable
© GTG
Alpha
LIBOR + 1.0%
Beta
7%
LIBOR + 1.50%
5%
(0.5%)
0.5%
0.50%
LIBOR + 0.50%
2%
(0.5%)
1.50%
(0.5%)
1.0%
(0.50%)
6.50%
In practice, swaps are arranged through banks, which charge an arrangement fee for providing their services.
Usually the arrangement fee is divided equally between parties of the swap agreement. Furthermore, companies
will not exchange the interest payments but only the difference between the interest at fixed and floating rates
paid or received.
Tan and Zan Companies can borrow for a five-year term at the following rates:
Tan
Zan
Credit rating
AA
BB
Fixed-rate borrowing cost
11.5%
13.0%
Floating-rate borrowing cost
LIBOR
LIBOR + 1%
Assume the swap bank is quoting five -year interest rate swaps at 11.7.7% - 11.8% against LIBOR flat.
Required:
(a) Calculate the quality spread differential (QSD).
(b) Assume Tan desires floating-rate debt and Zan desires fixed-rate debt. Develop an interest rate swap in
which both Tan and Zan have cost savings in their borrowing costs.
2.4 Hedging using interest rate options
1. Caps, floors and collars
Borrower’s and depositor’s interest rate options, discussed above, relate to a single interest period only.
However, the borrowing companies might require hedging their floating rate interest rate exposures for several
interest periods. Interest rate caps, floors and collars are OTC interest rate options that enable a company to
hold options for a series of consecutive interest periods. They can be structured using market-based interest
rate call options and put options. They could be used to hedge current or expected interest receipts or
payments.
(a) Interest rate cap
An interest rate cap is a contract that enables companies with floating rate debt to limit or "cap" their exposure
to rising interest rates.
A cap could be compared to a series of call options on FRAs. It is similar to a series of European interest rate
call options, each with a different strike price and covering a different interest period. It protects the holder
against rising market interest rates in return for payment of a premium upfront. The cap premium is the total of
the premiums of the individual interest rate options that make the structure of the cap.
These individual interest rate options which make the structure of the cap are also called ‘caplets’. Borrowers
are assured that the lenders cannot increase their borrowing rate above the level of the cap. OTC caps are
available for periods of up to 10 years and can therefore protect against long-term interest rate movements. If
the interest rates move in a favourable direction, the buyer of the cap can let the option lapse and take
advantage of the more favourable rates in the spot market. In general, the longer the term of the cap and the
more the protection offered by the cap, the more expensive the cap will be.
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The cap buyer is reimbursed for the amount by which the floating rate index exceeds a certain threshold rate
fixed by the company. For example, an interest rate cap can be structured to protect companies from a rise in
floating rate indices such as LIBOR or US Treasury rates.
Assume a company is planning to borrow Tshs10 million for four years at a floating rate of one-month Tanzanian
benchmark rate plus the company's credit spread. The company wishes to cap the Tanzanian benchmark rate
component of its interest expense at 12% over the four-year life of the loan. In return for a payment of
Tshs200,000 upfront, the company purchases a four-year 12% one-month Tanzanian benchmark rate cap on a
Tshs10 million notional amount.
Required:
Calculate the interest rate for the company, assuming Tanzanian benchmark rate at the date of reset is (i) 6.5%
or (ii) 7.5%.
Answer
Scenario 1: Tanzanian benchmark rate at the reset date is 11.5%.
If Tanzanian benchmark rate moves to 11.5%, the company is guaranteed that the Tanzanian benchmark rate
component of its corresponding interest expense will never exceed 12% (all things being equal, including
Tanzanian benchmark rate resets). Since 11.5% is less than the cap level of 12.00%, the company receives no
payment from the cap and simply pays the floating rate of 11.5% Tanzanian benchmark rate plus the credit
spread on the loan.
Scenario 2: Tanzanian benchmark rate at the reset date is 12.5%
When Tanzanian benchmark rate is greater than 12.00% on a periodic reset date, the company will receive a
payment for the amount by which the Tanzanian benchmark rate exceeds the 12.00% cap level. For example,
when Tanzanian benchmark rate is 12.5% on such a date, the company receives 0.5% (12.5% - 12.00%).
Therefore, the company's net interest expense on the corresponding debt for that period is limited to 12.00%
plus the credit spread.
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Benefits of a cap
Low cost protection: the buyer of the cap receives interest rate protection for a minimal cost upfront.
Flexibility: while offering protection, caps allow the buyer to continue to benefit from declining floating rates
on its underlying debt.
Facilitates cash flow planning: the company can plan its cash flows, since it knows in advance the
maximum interest commitment over the period of the cap.
Plots Ltd has arranged a Tshs100 million five-year loan from its bank in order to expand its business. The
interest terms are six-month LIBOR plus 1%. The interest at present is 6.5%. LIBOR is reset every 6 months
and payable in arrears. The company does not want to pay more than 7.0%. However, it anticipates that interest
rates will fall in the medium term and does not want to be locked into a 7% rate.
The company buys an interest rate cap from a bank, fixing the maximum borrowing rate at 7.0%.
Required:
Calculate the net pay-off if:
(a) at the end of six months, LIBOR is 6.5%
(b) at the end of 12 months, LIBOR is 5.8%
(b) Interest rate floor
An interest rate floor is a contract in which the buyer purchases a series of put options or floorlets and receives
money if the reference rate is lower than the agreed strike price of the floor.
A floor could be compared to a series of put options on FRAs. It is similar to an option, which allows a company
to hedge a deposit by being guaranteed a minimum rate of interest. In return for a premium, the option holder
has the right, but not the obligation, to fix the interest rate on a notional deposit. The option is exercisable at
agreed intervals, and is cash settled in the same way as an interest rate cap.
(c) Interest rate collar
The problem with interest rate caps is that, as with any option, the holder must pay a premium upfront. The
premium amount may be substantial particularly if, as in the above example on caps, the company wants to
hedge an interest rate exposure extending over a number of years.
In the case of a collar, the premium that the company would pay on the cap element is netted off against the
premium it would receive on the floor element, so that in effect, the company will pay a much lower premium for
an interest rate collar than it would for a cap.
An interest rate collar is a combination of a cap and a floor transacted simultaneously. The buyer of an interest
rate cap purchases an interest rate cap while selling a floor indexed to the same interest rate, for the same
amount and covering the same period.
At each fixing date, if the interest rate is above the cap, the bank will reimburse the company. However, at the
same time, the company sells the bank an interest rate floor. Therefore, if at a particular reset date, the relevant
interest rate is below the floor, the company reimburses the bank.
In the case of a borrowing collar, a company buys a put option and sells a call option.
In the case of a lending collar, a company buys a call option and sells a put option.
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An interest rate collar limits a floating interest rate to a pre-determined range.
Diagram 4: Interest rate risk using collar
A company has a four-year Tshs100 million bank loan bearing interest at a rate based on one month LIBOR
plus credit spread. The company would like to limit its exposure to any increase in LIBOR above 7.00% and
therefore purchases a four-year 7.00% cap on LIBOR from the bank. However, to avoid paying fees upfront, the
company sells the bank a 5.80% floor. The collar is structured as follows:
If LIBOR is greater than 7.00% on the LIBOR reset date, the bank will pay the company the difference
between LIBOR and 7.00%; and
If the LIBOR is less than 5.80% on the LIBOR reset date, the company will pay the bank the difference
between 5.80% and LIBOR.
Required:
Find the net gain or loss using the collar if the LIBOR at the reset date is:
(a) 6.50%
(b) 7.50%
(c) 5.50%
Answer
Scenario (a): LIBOR = 6.50% Cap = 7.00% Floor = 5.80%
If the one-month LIBOR is 6.5% (i.e. below the cap level and above the floor level), the company simply pays
the floating rate required on its loan (in this case 6.50% plus its credit spread). No payments are made or
received on the collar.
Scenario (b): LIBOR = 7.50% Cap = 7.00% Floor = 5.80%
If the one-month LIBOR is reset above the cap rate, the company continues to pay the floating rate on its loan
(in this case 7.5% plus its credit spread). However, since the company purchased a 7.00% cap, the bank will
make a payment to the company equal to 0.50% on a Tshs100 million notional amount, reducing the company's
net interest expense on its Tshs100 million loan to 7.00% plus its credit spread.
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Scenario (c): LIBOR = 5.50% Cap = 7.00% Floor = 5.80%
If the one-month LIBOR is reset below the floor rate, the company again pays the floating rate on its loan; in this
case 5.50% plus its credit spread. However, because the company sold a 5.80% floor, it would also make a
payment of 0.30% to the bank, giving the company an effective borrowing rate of 5.80% plus its credit spread
for the relevant interest period.
The diagram illustrates how this works if, for example, the cap is set at 7% and the floor at 5.8%:
Benefits of a collar
Cost reduction: a collar can be structured with no upfront payment while providing the same protection
against rising interest rates as an interest rate cap. The premium paid for the purchase of the options would
be partly or wholly offset by the premium received from the sale of options. A complete offsetting of
premiums results in a zero collar and effectively a fixed rate loan or deposit is created dependent on
whether the company is borrowing or depositing.
Flexibility: subject to approval, companies can enter into an interest rate collar at any time, for any term, on
any portion of their variable rate debt.
Certainty: Interest rate options provides certainty to floating rate loans as to what interest streams the
parties will pay or get.
Current futures prices suggest that interest rates are expected to fall over the next few months. Crawler Ltd
expects to have Tshs400 million available for short-term investment for a period of 5 months commencing late
October. The company wishes to protect this short-term investment from a fall in interest rates, but is concerned
about the premium levels of interest rate options. It would also like to benefit if interest rates were to increase
rather than fall. The company’s advisers have suggested the use of an interest rate collar.
Options (Tshs500,000), points of 100%
Strike price
95.25
95.50
95.75
Calls
Sept
0.04
0
0
Dec
0.445
0.280
0.165
Puts
Sept
0.04
0.25
0.50
Dec
0.085
0.170
0.305
LIBOR is currently 5% and the company can invest short-term at LIBOR minus 25 basis points.
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Required:
(a) Assume that it is now early September. The company wishes to receive more than Tshs6,750,000 in
interest from its five-month investment after paying any option premium. Illustrate how a collar hedge may
be used to achieve this.
(Note: it is not necessary to estimate the number of contracts for this illustration).
(b) Estimate the maximum interest that could be received with your selected hedge.
Answers to Test Yourself
Answer to TY 1
The company will purchase 5 contracts of Tshs5 million each. The quoted price is 0.20 per contract. i.e. 20 ticks
per option contract. The cost of each tick is Tshs125.0 (Tshs5 m X 0.001 X3/12). Therefore, the cost of four
option contracts will be equal to 20 x 5 x Tshs125 = Tshs12500.
If LIBOR rises to 5.5% on the date of exercise, the company will exercise its option and sell the future contracts
at 95. Assuming no basis risk, the futures price would have dropped to 94.5 (100 – 5.5). Therefore, the
company makes a 0.5% gain by buying futures at 94.5 and selling them at 95. This translates into a gain of 50
ticks at Tshs125 each per contract. This results in a total profit of 50 x Tshs125.0 x 5 = Tshs31,250 on the
option. This amount is equal to the cost of borrowing which is Tshs25million x 0.5% x 3/12 = Tshs31,250.
Payoff = Tshs31,250 – Tshs12,500 = Tshs18,750
Answer to TY 2
Orbit Ltd. in terms of both fixed and floating rate loans has an advantage over Comet Ltd. The differential
spread is calculated as
Fixed rate 14.5% - 14.25% = 0.25%
Floating rate (TIBOR + 1.25%) - (TIBOR + 2%) = 0.75%
Combined differential = 0.75% - 0.25% = 0.5%, therefore swap is feasible
Answer to TY 3
The value of the loan = Tshs100million
Each unit of trading = Tshs5million
Thus the total number of contracts will be = Tshs100million/Tshs5million = 20
Hitec has locked an interest rate of 3.72% (100-96.28) for LIBOR by selling July 3month futures at a price of
96.28.
The total interest rate of LIBOR plus 0.6% is therefore, 4.32% (3.72% + 0.6%)
The interest cost for a 3-month loan of Tshs100 million @ 4.32% would beTshs100million x 4.32% x 3/12
= Tshs1.08million.
In early July, Hitec borrows Tshs100million @ 5.03% for 3 months.
The interest payable on the loan is Tshs100million x 5.03% x 3/12 =Tshs1.2575million.
At the same time, Hitec closes its position in July 20X6 at a price of 95.57.
It gains due to a decrease in price (96.28 -95.57) i.e. 0.71 = 71 ticks
Value of 1 tick Tshs125
Value of 71 ticks = 71 x Tshs125 =Tshs8875
Thus, as Hitec is a seller of 20 contracts, it would gain 20 x Tshs8875= Tshs0.1775million
The net cost of borrowing is, therefore:
Interest payable
= Tshs1.2575 million
Less: Profit on futures = Tshs0.1775 million
Tshs1.08 million
This is equal to borrowing Tshs100million for 3 months @ 4.32%, which is the rate locked by the futures
transaction.
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Answer to TY 4
The company has locked a rate of 6.71% for the next six months (8-2).
Its interest cost on the transaction of Tshs10billion for 6 months = Tshs10billion x 6.71% x 6/12 =
Tshs335.5million
If interest rates go up or down by 100 bps (or 1%),
The difference in the interest amount = Tshs10billion x 1% x 6/12 =Tshs50million
By entering into an FRA, the company would save Tshs50million if the interest rate increases to 7.71%. The
bank would have to reimburse the company Tshs50million. However, if, after six months, interest rates fall to
5.71%, the company would have to pay this difference of Tshs50million to the bank.
Answer to TY 5
S&P credit rating
Fixed-rate borrowing cost
Floating-rate borrowing cost
Tan
AA
11.5%
LIBOR
Zan
BB
13.0%
LIBOR + 1%
Assume the swap bank is quoting five -year Tshs interest rate swaps at 11.7.7% - 11.8% against LIBOR flat
The bank’s quote should be understood as 11.7% for buying and 11.8% for selling.
The QSD = (13.0% - 11.5%) minus (LIBOR + 1% - LIBOR) =0.5%.
The swap transaction will be:
Tan will issue a fixed-rate debt at 11.5%. Zan will issue a floating rate-debt at LIBOR + 1%.
Tan will receive 11.7% from the swap bank and pay it LIBOR. Zan will pay 11.8% to the swap bank and
receive from it LIBOR.
Thus, Tan’s total floating-rate cost will be: 11.5% + LIBOR - 11.7% = LIBOR - 0.20%, which is a 0.20% savings
over issuing the floating-rate debt on its own (at LIBOR).
Zan’s total fixed rate cost will be: LIBOR+ 1% + 11.8% - LIBOR = 12.8%, which is a 0.20% savings over issuing
fixed-rate debt @ 13%
Answer to TY 6
At the start of the loan, six-month LIBOR is 5.5%, so the company is paying 6.5%.
If at the end of 6 months, LIBOR moves to 6.5%, so Plots Ltd would pay 7.5% for its loan. It exercises its option,
and the bank pays (7.5% – 7.0%) x Tshs100million x 6/12 = Tshs250,000.
This, in effect, ensures that company is effectively paying interest at 7%.
If, at the end of 12 months, LIBOR falls to 5.8%, the company would be required to pay interest at 6.8%. The
company would therefore not exercise its option and continue to borrow at 6.8% until the end of the 5 years.
Answer to TY 7
(a) If the company intends to earn interest ofTshs6,750,000 it would need to earn an annualised interest rate,
Tshs 6,750,00
12
after premium costs of
x
= 4.05%
Tshs 400,000,000 5
Therefore, the collar should be structured in such a manner that it should provide a minimum return of more
than 4.05% including premium costs.
In this case, since Crawler Ltd is investing, a lending collar would be more suitable to the company. A lending
collar involves the simultaneous buying of a floor and selling a cap. The floor can be set by buying a call option
that will increase in value if interest rates were to fall. The cap can be set by selling put options, will set the
maximum interest. With this, the company could forego any higher interest rate than the put option exercise
price, but paying a lower overall premium.
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The overall cost of the collar will be the call option premium paid less the put option premium received. In order
to earn an interest rate of higher than 4.05% (Tshs6,750,000) a collar should be arranged with the call strike
price higher than the put strike price (in order to set the maximum interest that can be received).
Alternatives are:
Calls
Sept
0.04
0
0
Strike price
95.25
95.50
95.75
Call strike
price
95.75
95.75
95.50
Interest
rate
4.25%
4.25%
4.50%
Dec
0.445
0.280
0.165
Puts
Sept
0.04
0.25
0.50
Less call
option cost
0.165%
0.165%
0.280%
Dec
0.085
0.170
0.305
Less
0·25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
Plus put
option receipt
0.170% (95.50)
0.085% (95.25)
0.085% (95.25)
Total
4.005%
3.92%0
4.055%
The minimum interest ofTshs6,750,000 could be earned by purchasing a call at 95.50 and selling a put at 95.25.
The actual minimum return (ignoring any time value of money) will be equal to:
Tshs400,000,000 x
5
x 4.055% = Tshs6,758,333
12
Note: If a collar is set with the same put and call price the interest rate earned will be:
Strike price
Interest rate
95.25
95.50
95.75
4.75%
4.50%
4.25%
Less call
cost
0.445%
0.280%
0.165%
Plus put
receipt
0.085%
0.170%
0.305%
Less 0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
Total
4.14%
4.14%
4.14%
This collar structure would enable the company to earn the required interest rate of 4.05%, but would not allow
Crawler to take advantage of any favourable movement in interest rates.
(b) The maximum benefit of favourable interest rates would occur if market interest rates were at least 4.75%
and the call option were allowed to lapse. The put option would be exercised by its buyer and the maximum
overall return would be:
Strike price
95.50
Interest rate
(allowing call
option to lapse)
4.75%
Less call
cost
Plus put
receipt
Less
0.25%
Total
0.280%
0.085%
0.25%
4.305%
This would yield an interest amount equal to:
Tshs400,000,000 x
5
12
x 4.305% = Tshs7,175,000
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Quick Quiz
1. In the case of rising interest rates, companies with floating interest rate debt will pay:
A Higher interest
B Lower interest
C No interest
D None of the above
2. In which circumstances should a company
buy an FRA
sell an FRA
3. An interest rate future is used to hedge against interest rate risk. True or false?
4. What is the value of an interest rate swap to counterparty?
5. An interest rate collar is a combination of:
A
B
C
D
Forward rate agreement and interest rate futures contract
Interest rate futures contract and interest rate swap
Interest rate swap and interest rate cap
Interest rate cap and interest rate floor
Answers to Quick Quiz
1. The correct option is A .
2. If a company wishes to guarantee its future borrowing costs: it should buy an FRA.
If a company wishes to guarantee a rate of return on future deposits: it should sell an FRA.
3. True. An interest rate futures contract is a futures contract with an interest-bearing instrument as its
underlying asset.
4. An interest rate swap is the net difference between the present value of the expected receipts and the
present value of the payments that the company expects to make.
5. The correct option is D.
An interest rate collar is a combination of an interest rate cap and an interest rate floor.
Self-Examination Questions
Question 1
A firm is planning to borrow short term funds for an amount of £10 million for a period of five months
commencing 1 May 20X7. It is now the last day of 20X6. The company can currently borrow at LlBOR + 1.5%.
Short-term interest rates are believed to be more likely to increase than to decrease, although, if there is a fall in
the retail price index during the next few months, interest rates could decrease. The company’s advisers believe
that Labour could increase by up to 1% or decrease by up to 0.75% during the next four months. LlBOR is
currently 7%.
LIFFE three-month Sterling futures, £500,000 contract size, £12.50 tick size.
March - 92.75
June - 92.50
LIFFE option price on three-month Sterling futures, £500,000 contract size, and £12.50 tick size.
Exercise price
92.00
93.00
94.00
Premium (%)
Calls
March
June
0.94
1.20
0.28
0.36
0.10
0.19
Puts
March
June
0.22
0.37
0.44
0.59
1.30
1.45
© GTG
Futures, options and swaps:
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Required:
Suggest a hedging strategy using interest rate options to manage short-term interest rate risk. Calculate the
likely impact of the suggested strategy if interest rates were to move to each of the extremes suggested by the
advisers.
Note:
Assume that contracts mature at the month end.
Basis risk and margin requirements may be ignored.
State clearly any assumptions that you make.
Question 2
th
PQN Ltd expects to receive Tshs18500 million from the sale of particular non-core business vertical by 5 June
20X3. This is proposed to be invested in commercial paper of high credit rating for a period of four months, post
which the company proposes to start a new factory. In doing so the company wants to guard against adverse
interest rate movements by using futures or forward rate agreements (FRAs).
The current yield on high quality commercial paper is LIBOR + 7%.
LIFFE £500,000 three-month Sterling futures, £12.50 tick size.
September 96.25
December 96.60
Futures contracts mature at the month end. LIBOR is currently 4%.
FRA prices (%)
4 v 5 3.85 – 3.80
4 v 9 3.58 – 3.53
5 v 9 3.50 – 3.45
Required:
(a) Suggest an interest rate future contract as a hedge for the proposed investment and estimate the expected
lock-in interest rate as a result of the hedge.
(b) Determine whether futures or forward rate agreement would hedge in a more efficient manner.
(c) What would be the impact on expected result under each hedge in the cash market, FRA and futures
market, if LIBOR fell by 0.5% during the next five months?
Answers to Self Examination Questions
Answer to SEQ 1
The company intends to hedge any unfavourable future interest rate movement using options. This will protect
the company against interest rate increases whilst providing the opportunity to benefit from falls in interest rates.
The company should purchase put options since it intends to protect against interest rate increases. Therefore,
the June options would be the most suitable for the period at risk. It is assumed that the company intends to pay
less than the existing interest rates, with LlBOR at 7%. The options hedge could be structured using the 93.00
exercise price, which corresponds to the current short-term interest rate (futures price is 100 - interest rate or
100 - 7 = 93.00)
Number of contracts required will be:
£10,000,00 5
5
as the period at risk is five months
x = 33.33 or 33 contracts
£500,000 3
3
If interest rates increase by 1%:
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Cash market
£10 million x 1% x
5
12
= £41,666.7
Options market
The company should buy 7 June put option contracts at 0.59
Premium cost is 33 x 59 x £12.50 = £24,337.5
If interest rates rise by 1%, the June futures price is expected to fall by 1% to 91.50 (ignoring any change in
basis risk). However, in practice, changes in basis would occur which would have a major impact on the options
hedge. The company will exercise the option to sell futures at 93.00 and will earn a profit of 150 basis points
would be made. (It would have to buy June futures on LlFFE at 91.50 in order to close the hedge position)
Profit from exercising the option: 150 x 33 x £12.50
Less: Premium cost
£
61,875.00
24,337.50
37,537.50
Overall loss in relation to the current interest rates is £41,666.67-£37,537.50 = £4129.17
If the interest rate falls by 0.75%:
Cash market
£10,000,00 0 x 0.75% x
5
12
= £31,250
Options market
The option would be allowed to lapse resulting in a premium cost of £24,337.50
The net gain relative to the current interest rate will be £31,250- £24,337.50 =£6912.50
This strategy provides the company with an expected maximum 'loss' of £4129.17 and a possible gain of up to
£6912.50
Answer to SEQ 2
(a) The company will need a long futures hedge since it is concerned about a fall in interest rates during the
next five months.
It should buy December futures at 96.60. If interest rates fall, the futures price will rise and the futures contracts
could be closed out at a higher price to partially offset the rise in interest rates. In order to hedge the amount of
Tshs18,500 million for a four-month period the company will be required to buy:
1000 Tshs = 0.38 £
Tshs18500 m = £7.03m
£7,030,000 4
x = 18.75, or 19 contracts
£500,000 3
Basis is equal to futures price rate minus the spot price.
Therefore, basis will be equal to 96.60 – 96.00 = 0.60%.
(The current LIBOR rate of 4% is equivalent to a futures price of 96.00).
The time to expiry of the December futures contract is seven months. The remaining time at the close out date
(five months’ time) is two months.
The expected basis for two months will be equal to:
0.60% x
2
7
= 0.171%
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The expected LIBOR lock-in rate is equal to 96.60 – 0.171 = 96.429 or 3.571%.
The company could invest in commercial paper at LIBOR + 7%.
Therefore, the overall expected lock-in rate will be 3.571% + 7% = 10.571%.
(b) The relevant FRA rate is 5 v 9. The company would sell the FRA to a bank to fix the interest rate at 3.45%.
This is a lower rate than the expected futures LIBOR lock-in rate of 3.571%.
(c) Cash market
Expected receipts from the investment on 1 November are:
£7.1m x 10.5.% x
4
12
= £248,500
(10.5% is rate calculated by addition of 3.5.% + 7%)
Futures market
The company buy 19 December contracts at 96.60 on June 1.
The company should sell 19 December contracts at 96.671 on November1 (spot of 96.50 plus expected
remaining basis of 0.171).
The company would make a profit from futures at 7.1 basis points x £12.50 x 19 = £1,686.
Therefore, the overall receipts will be £248500 + £1,686 = £250186.
(N.B.
£250186
12
x
= 10.571%, the expected lock - in rate)
£7,100,000 4
FRA
The FRA fixed rate is 3.45%. Actual LIBOR is 3.5%. The company will therefore have to pay an amount equal to
£7.1m (3.50% - 3.45%) x
4
1
x
12 1+ (3.5% x 4/12)
or £1,169.65
This will be deducted from the actual receipts of £248,500 (estimated above) to give a net £247,330, a return of
10.45%.
(N.B. this is the FRA rate of 3.45 plus the 7% over LIBOR from the commercial paper).
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FINANCIAL ENGINEERING
AND PLANNING
STUDY GUIDE D2: FOREIGN EXCHANGE
PLANNING
In this era of globalisation, it is increasingly likely that companies will trade abroad. This opens them to all sorts
of risk, including exchange rate risk. The larger the company, the more likely they are to try to hedge against
any uncertainty as it can have a profound impact on profits. The US Dollar has lately been appreciating against
most currencies. For Japanese / Tanzanian / Brazilian companies importing products or services from US
companies, the appreciation is eroding their margins.
What can companies do to minimise the impact of the appreciating dollar? How can forward contracts, swaps
etc. be used to hedge against foreign exchange? This Study Guide will give you some of the answers, to enable
you to understand the tools available to manage foreign exchange.
a) Evaluate and assess financial and planning options for a business giving advice based on business
scenarios using exchange rate determinants and risks.
b) Evaluate and assess financial and planning options for a business giving advice based on business
scenarios using forward contracts.
c) Evaluate and assess financial and planning options for a business giving advice based on business
scenarios using money market cover.
d) Evaluate and assess financial and planning options for a business giving advice based on business
scenarios using currency options.
e) Evaluate and assess financial and planning options for a business giving advice based on business
scenarios using currency swaps.
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1. Evaluate and assess financial and planning options for a business giving advice based on
business scenarios using exchange rate determinants and risks.
[Learning Outcomes a]
Assets and liabilities in foreign currencies are translated into sterling at the rates of exchange ruling at the end
of the reporting period. Transactions in foreign currencies are translated into sterling at the rate ruling on the
date of the transaction.
Exchange differences are taken to the Income statement. Trading results of the overseas subsidiaries are
translated into sterling at the average rate for the year. Translation differences arising on the consolidation of
these companies are dealt with as adjustments to reserves.
Exchange rate risk
A significant percentage of the Group’s purchases and sales are denominated in US$ rather than sterling which
is its functional currency. Except for certain borrowings held in US$ during the year which partially mitigate
against US$ operating gains and losses, the Group has not hedged these transactions. The Group, therefore, is
exposed to a degree of risk in respect of changes in the Sterling/Dollar exchange rate.
Maturity Profile of Group Financial Liabilities
2006
Within one year or less or on demand
The Group had committed un-drawn borrowing facilities at 30 June
2005
£ ‘000
£ ‘000
–
25,903
32,000
6,990
(Source: Extract from Annual Report 2006 of Aero Inventory Plc)
The factors that cause international currency to move include market fundamentals and market expectations.
The determinants of exchange rate fluctuations vary in the long run, medium run, and short run. Significant
exchange rate fluctuations may continue for some time, but, the currency is brought back to its long-run
equilibrium by the fundamental forces.
Exchange rates are prices that are determined by the economic theory of supply and demand. There is no
single theory of exchange rate determination that takes into account all factors that have an impact on it but five
areas are generally accepted as affecting the exchange rates:
parity conditions, where the exchange rate is so adjusted between countries that a basket of goods and
services, command equivalent prices
infrastructure development, such as roads, power, communication etc increase competition and lower the
prices of goods. This leads to a decline in the exchange rate
currency speculationcan be the reason behind currencies of various countries getting devalued to levels not
justified by economic fundamentals
cross-border foreign direct investment and portfolio investment, increase the supply of the foreign currency
and consequently bring down the exchange rate; and
political risks may increase the demand for currency as investors may try to pull out their investments from
the country, while at the same time inflows of foreign currency may reduce. This causes the local currency
to weaken significantly.
Governments have been concerned with the exchange rate of a country’s currency and have adopted several
means to achieve a stable exchange rate.
Exchange rate systems can be floating or fixed.
Under a floating exchange rate, the value of a country’s currency is determined by market forces of supply and
demand. The central bank of the country does not intervene and lets the market forces determine the rate,
unless there are very strong reasons to step in and control the rate e.g. rampant speculation.
Clean float refers to a system wherein, exchange rates are determined by supply and demand.
Dirty float refers to a system wherein governments, in order to decrease the volatility in the markets, intervene
through central banks to buy and sell currencies.
© GTG
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A fixed rate of exchange “pegs” (matches), the value of the currency to another country’s currency or to several
currency denominations or even to commodities like gold. Prior to 1971, the currencies of most currencies were
fixed. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods Agreement, under which countries had agreed to peg the value of
their currencies to gold and the US dollar, in that year, the fixed exchange regime was abandoned by most
countries and the floating or flexible exchange rate regime was adopted. However, even now there are several
countries which have pegged their exchange rate, either to the US dollar or the Euro. Fourteen countries in
Africa have pegged their currency to the Euro and three to the South African Rand (ZAR).
1.1 Exchange rate volatility and risk
Major movements in the value of currencies take place where the forces of supply and demand freely determine
the price. As a result, the exchange rate risk associated with international transactions increase.
A Tanzanian company invests its surplus funds amounting to Tshs100million in South African government
bonds with a coupon rate of 8%. At the time of the purchase, the exchange rate was 1 ZAR = Tshs160. Its
investments therefore, amounted to ZAR625,000. The South African Government pays interest of ZAR50,000
on the bonds each year. The investing company would have received an equivalent amount of Tshs8million as
interest, if the exchange rate had remained the same.
However, a year later, the exchange rate is 1 ZAR = Tshs150. Although, the company will receive ZAR 50,000,
when converted into Tanzanian currency, it will receive only Tshs7.5million, a reduction (loss) of Tshs500,000.
Cross-border financial transactions are very much different from the domestic activity as regards the risk due
the existence of the following factors:
different tax regimes prevailing in each country
political risk arising from the philosophies of governments like, democratic, communist, autocratic. amount
and extent of government intervention in foreign trade
business risk arising from unexpected changes in the general economic environment.
Volatility in the exchange rate has the potential to impact the volume of sales, costs, profits and the ROI of firms
engaged in international business and consequently expose them to the following risks:
1. Transaction exposure / risk arises when a firm has cash flows that are fixed in a foreign currency.
Transaction risk is the risk that occurs in transactions where foreign currency is involved, for example exports /
imports. Companies engaged in foreign currency transactions are exposed to this kind of risk. Transaction risk
refers to adverse changes in the exchange rate before the transaction is finally settled.
This risk arises from the fact that the exchange rate on the date of transaction could be different from the rate of
exchange on the date of settlement of the transaction.
A UK company sells goods of €1,000 to a customer based in Germany and gives 2 months’ credit. At the
current spot rate of 1 = €1.456, the company expects to receive 1000/1.456 = £687. The German company
takes 2 months’ credit, and, by the end of the 2 months, the rate has changed to 1 = €1.486. The UK company
will now receive only £673 (1,000/1.486).
Transmedical International imports specialty pharmaceutical products into Tanzania from GlaxoSmithKline, UK
on 45 days credit. The products are invoiced in GBP. The current exchange rate is Tshs2580 for 1 GBP.
The firm has received a consignment worth £100,000 payable 45 days hence. At today’s exchange rate, the firm
would have to pay £100,000 x Tshs2580 = Tshs258million. If the GBP appreciates against the Tanzanian
currency to a value of Tshs2600, when the payment falls due, the firm has to pay
£100,000 x Tshs2600 = Tshs260million.
Transmedical thus has a transaction exposure to GBP, and its loss could be worth Tshs2million.
The transaction exposure can be eliminated using hedging instruments, such as forward rate contracts.
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2. Operating exposure / risk
This is also known as economic exposure / risk. It denotes the extent to which the value of the firm changes
when the exchange rate changes (the present value of expected future cash flows).
Economic risk is general in nature. It may affect a company’s performance even if the company does not have
any foreign currency transactions. It may affect a company’s performance even if the company has foreign
currency transactions and the exchange rate remains unchanged.
A firm may not be exposed to transaction or translation risk, yet it may be affected by economic risk. Translation
risk and transaction risk can be reduced or eliminated by avoiding foreign currency transactions and overseas
operation; economic risk cannot be avoided.
Operating exposure is also affected by the extent of competition and the location of major competitors.
Although a firm may not have an international business, it may still be affected by the consequences of
operating exposure and be subject exchange rate risk.
A Tanzanian manufacturer of chemical products will have a competitive advantage compared to a South African
manufacturer of similar products if the Tanzanian shilling depreciates against the South African Rand, ZAR. The
price of a chemical product T1 manufactured by the firm, if converted into ZAR will fall and will attract importers
in South Africa to import it as it may be cheaper than the domestic prices.
3. Translation exposure
This also called an accounting exposure refers to the possibility of accounting loss that could occur, as a
result of the conversion of the value of assets and liabilities which are denominated in foreign currency, due to
movements in exchange rate. Entities which deal with foreign countries are subject to this risk.
Translation means conversion of foreign currency assets or liabilities into the domestic reporting currency”.
Transactions are recorded at the spot exchange rates when they occur, but at the SOFP date if the settlement is
pending (i.e. it may represent either asset or a liability); the foreign currency amounts are converted using the
exchange rate that is valid at the closing date. This may result in two different values, one on the date of the
transaction and the other on the closing date.
This risk is also known as ‘accounting risk’. Translation risk is a function of the accounting treatment of foreign
assets and liabilities at the year end and does not result in any cash gain or loss for the company. The following
example shows the impact of translation differences.
The SOFP of a wholly owned subsidiary in a foreign country as at December 30, 20X5 in foreign currency, FC
is:
FC
Noncurrent assets
Equity
Noncurrent liabilities
90
60
Current assets
Current liabilities
80
Other assets
Liabilities +equity
230
Assets
100
50
80
230
Current exchange rate
1 unit of foreign currency (FC) = 0.5 unit of parent currency (PC)
Historic exchange rate
1 unit of foreign currency (FC) = 0.75 unit of parent currency (PC)
Continued on the next page
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On the reporting date this SOFP will appear in the consolidated financial statements of the parent company as
follows:
FC
Equity
Add: Translation adjustment
(balancing amount)
Total Equity
Noncurrent liabilities
Current liabilities
Liabilities +Equity
90
60
80
230
PC
x 0.75
67.5
x0.50
x0.50
FC
Non-current assets
PC
100
x0.75
75
2.5
70
Current assets
50
x0.50
25
30
40
140
Other assets
80
x0.50
40
Assets
230
140
SUMMARY
1.2 Determinants of exchange rate
Some of the main theories related to determining exchange rates are:
1. Supply and demand
According to this theory, the exchange rate is determined by the forces of demand and supply. Therefore, the
point of intersection of the two curves will be the equilibrium rate. If, for any reason, the demand for a
foreign currency increases, then the price will rise further, assuming the supply remains the same. On the
contrary, if the supply is increased by a shift of the supply curve downwards, the price will decline from, provided
the demand remains the same.
Any or Any excess demand, below the equilibrium point or excess supply, above the equilibrium point decreases
or increases the foreign currency reserves of a country temporarily. This disequilibrium condition is rectified by
market forces over time.
2. Purchasing power parity (PPP)
Purchasing power parity (PPP) is a theory which states that exchange rates between currencies are in
equilibrium when their purchasing power is the same in each of the two countries. This means that the
exchange rate between two countries should equal the ratio of the two countries' price level of a fixed basket of
goods and services. When a country's domestic price level is increasing (i.e. a country experiences inflation),
that country's exchange rate depreciates in order to return to PPP.
The process of equilibrium continues until prices of goods of two countries reach the same level. Thus PPP
theory is based on law of one price. Competitive markets will equalise the price of an identical good in two
countries when the prices are expressed in the same currency.
PPP theory is based on following assumptions
The law of one price assumes that there are no transportation costs and no differential taxes applied
between the two markets.
There must be competitive markets for the goods and services in both countries.
The law of one price only applies to tradable goods; immobile goods such as houses, and many services
that are local, are of course not traded between countries.
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In practice it would take a long time to reach price equilibrium according to PPP. In the short run, exchange
rates are news driven i.e. announcements about interest rate changes, changes in perception of the growth
prospects of economies and the like are all factors that drive exchange rates in the short run.
PPP suggests that the purchasing power of a consumer will be similar when purchasing goods in a foreign
country or in the home country. If inflation in the foreign country differs from inflation in the home country, the
exchange rate will adjust itself to maintain equal purchasing power.
The theory is based on the ‘law of one price’, which states that if the price in Tanzanian shillings of a product is
multiplied by the exchange rate, say, the US Dollar, it will yield the price of the same product in US dollars i.e. if
we assume that the exchange rate between the Tshs and US $ is 1600: 1, then a product that costs $1 in the
United States should cost Tshs1600 in Tanzania. Otherwise, arbitrage profits will occur.
Ultimately, however, the market, through the forces of demand and supply, will bring about equilibrium between
the Tanzanian shillings and US dollar prices. Thus, the law of one price will be reinstated and as a result, the
purchase power parity between the Tshs and the US $. The differences in the rates of inflation between the
countries will also be nullified because the PPP adjusts to equal the ratio of their price levels. The currency of
the country experiencing a higher rate of inflation will depreciate against the other currency by approximately the
inflation differential.
3. The balance of payments (BOP) approach
A country’s balance of payments is commonly defined as the record of transactions of its import and export over
a specified period. If the level of imports exceeds the level of exports, there is said to be a deficit on the balance
of payments. This equates to a net payment in a foreign currency.
For simplicity, assume that the UK has a balance of payments deficit which must be funded through US$. In
such a case, the demand for US$ would rise, and the supply of sterling would increase, as attempts are made to
acquire US currency. Basic laws of supply and demand dictate that when the demand for a commodity
increases, its price increases as well and when the supply goes up the price goes down. As a result sterling
would depreciate relative to the US$.
Exchange rate 1: Tshs 2,000 = USD 1
Exchange rate 2: Tshs 2,500 = USD 1
The Tshs has depreciated in relation to the USD. The USD has appreciated in relation to the Tshs.
Under exchange rate 1, one USD would have cost Tshs 2,000. However, under exchange rate 2, USD 1 now
costs Tshs 2,500.
This may have been due to a deficit in the balance of payments for the country that uses Tshs. The demand for
USD would have increased causing its price to inflate.
The following is an example of dollar depreciation against the EUR (or appreciation of EUR against the dollar):
(a) Supply of EUR is constant (demand for US$ is constant).
(b) The price of EUR rises (US$ falls) due to an increase in factors that affect the demand for EUR (supply of
US$):
Spain begins to import more goods from the US (i.e. services, gifts, investments etc.)
Demand for EUR increases (supply of $ increases.)
Effect - $ price of the Euro rises (Euro price of the $ falls.)
The US$ depreciates.
Alternatively, a surplus balance of payments would lead to an appreciation of a country’s currency relative to
another.
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4. International Fisher effect
This theory states that investors all over the world expect the same real rate of return on their investments after
the effects of inflation are eliminated. The theory states that the nominal rate of return is equal to the real rate of
return plus the effect of inflation.
The Fisher effect can be put in a formula as follows:
(1 + i) = (1 + r) (1 + h)
Where,
i = Nominal rate of return
r = Real rate of return
h = Rate of inflation
The Fisher effect helps to explain the difference in the interest rates in two countries. This difference can be
correlated with the difference in the inflation rates in those countries.
Assume that the Fisher equation in the UK is expressed as: (1 + i£) = (1 + r£) (1 + h£)
and that in the US it is expressed as: (1 + i$) = (1 + r$) (1 + h$)
It means that the nominal rate in the UK depends on the changes in the real rate and rate of inflation in the UK,
while the nominal rate in the US depends on the changes in the real rate and rate of inflation in the US.
We arrive at:
(1+ i£ )
(1 + i$ )
=
(1+ r £ )(1+ h£ )
(1+r $) (1 + h$ )
In perfectly competitive markets, the real returns in both countries will be the same.
We therefore have:
(1+ i£ )
(1 + i$ )
=
(1+ h£ )
(1 + h$ )
It is evident from the above equation that the changes in the interest rate coincide with the changes in the rate
of inflation.
Assume that the nominal interest rate in Germany is 5%, the rate of inflation is 3% and the expected rate of
inflation in the US is 4%. In this case, the nominal interest rate in the US can be calculated using the Fisher
theory as follows:
Using the Fisher theory, we have
(1+ h$ )
(1 + i$ ) = (1 + i €
)×
(1 + h € )
= (1 + 0.05) ×
(1+ 0.04)
(1 + 0.03)
= 1.06
Therefore, the nominal rate of interest in the US is 0.06 or 6%.
It can be observed that the real rate of return after eliminating the rate of inflation is the same in both Germany
and the US, i.e. 2% (5% - 3%) in Germany and (6% - 4%) in the US.
5. Interest Rate Parity (IRP) theory
Interest rates can be used as a tool for demand management in monetary policy therefore interest rates in
different countries will vary depending on the economic condition of the economy. Another factor influencing
exchange rates is the interest rates.
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If interest rates are high in one country compared to another, this will have the effect of attracting capital inflows
as investors try to take advantage of the higher rate of interest. As a result, the demand for domestic currency
increases, pushing up its price. The ultimate effect is a depreciation of the domestic country’s currency as it
becomes more expensive.
The Interest Rate Parity (IRP) theorem examines the impact of nominal interest rate differentials between two
countries on the future/forward rate of the foreign currency. IRP theory states that the premium or discount of
one currency in relation to the other should reflect the interest rate differentials between the two currencies.
Thus, interest rates play an important role in determining exchange rates.
IRP equation is
ih - if = p
Where,
ih = Home Interest Rate
if = Foreign Interest Rate
p = Forward Premium or discount of the foreign currency
Zen Pharma Inc. exports a special pharmaceutical product, Zenfar, from its headquarters in Atlanta, USA to a
major Tanzanian importer. The current exchange rate is $1= Tshs1,600. Exports to Tanzania are currently
200,000 units of Zenfar at $50 each. Direct costs are $30 per unit. There is an expectation that the Tanzanian
currency will be devalued by 15 percent by the Tanzanian government.
Zen is now faced with a pricing decision problem that must be decided before the anticipated any actual
devaluation takes place. Zen is considering two options before it.
Option 1
Maintain the same Tanzanian price as prevailing today (i.e. sell for a lower dollar price such that the cost to the
importer in Tanzanian shillings is the same as at present). In such a case, the sales volume to Tanzania will not
be affected, or,
Option 2
Maintain the same dollar price, and therefore the Tanzanian shilling price is increased to compensate for the
devaluation. This will result in a 10 percent decrease in volume.
Required:
(a) What is the short-run implication of pricing strategy under Option 1?
(b) What is the short-run implication of pricing strategy under Option 2?
(c) Which strategy do you recommend?
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2. Evaluate and assess financial and planning options for a business giving advice based on
business scenarios using forward contracts.
[Learning Outcomes b]
2.1 Forward contract
A forward contract is a customised agreement between two parties (a buyer and a seller) to buy / sell an asset
at a future date at a price decided upon today.
The specified instrument could be a commodity, currency or other underlying asset. The price agreed is called
the ‘forward rate’. The forward rate is determined at the time of entering into the contract but the settlement of
the contract happens at a future date mentioned in the contract.
The following are the key features of a forward contract:
It is a bilateral contract and hence exposed to counter party risk.
Aston enters into a forward contract under which he agrees to buy from Ben 1000 bales of cotton at a price of
Tshs500,000 per bale one month from now. Aston faces the risk that at the end of the month, Ben may fail to
deliver the cotton as contracted. Ben faces the risk that Aston may not be able to pay for the goods.
The contracts are not traded and hence the contract price is generally not available in the public domain.
Each contract is custom-designed and hence is unique in terms of contract size, time to expiry and
underlying asset.
On the date of expiry, the contract has to be settled by delivery of the underlying asset.
It can hedge the risks relating to currency exposure risk (forward contracts on Euro or dollar) or commodity
prices (forward contracts on crude oil, rubber, coffee etc.)
Forward contracts are often used to hedge adverse movements in currencies, commodity or a financial
instrument, irrespective of whether the price increases or decreases. For example, if a party expects an
appreciation in the currency rate in which he is required to pay in future, he can enter into a forward contract to
protect him from loss on account of foreign exchange fluctuation. Foreign currency forward contracts are used
as a foreign currency hedge when an investor has an obligation to either make or receive a foreign currency
payment at a future date. In a forward contract, no part of the contract is standardised and the two parties meet
and agree every detail of the contract before signing it.
In the case of a gold bullion forward contract, the parties would negotiate the following features of the contract:
(a) the weight of the gold bullion to be delivered
(b) the quality of the metal to be delivered
(c) the place at which the delivery is to be made
(d) the period after which the delivery is to be made
(e) the price which the buyer would pay
2.2 Types of forward contract
Two broad types of forward contract are discussed here.
Range forwards
Participating forward contract.
The main features of these contracts are that they provide full protection against any unfavourable currency
fluctuation, while they allow either a limited (range forwards) or unlimited participation (participating forwards) in
the case of favourable currency rate market movement.
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1. Range forwards
A range forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell a currency on a specified future date at an exchange
rate that lies within an agreed range of values.
These two values are agreed by the parties at the time of structuring the range forward contract. If the spot rate
of the currency moves above the agreed upper limit, the currency will be traded (bought or sold) at the agreed
upper value. If the spot rate of the currency moves below the agreed lower limit, the currency will be traded
(bought or sold) at the agreed lower value.
A company that wishes to hedge its currency exposures can specify the higher or lower currency value to the
bank, which will sell the option to the company.
Range forward contracts are used for hedging currency exposures if a company expects large, adverse
exchange rate movements in future. A range forward could be compared to a portfolio of options that combines
two options. It involves buying a put option and selling a call option without incurring any premium cost. It could
be used by a company for hedging both its payables and receivables.
An exporter (with receivables) would buy a put option and sell a call option and an importer (with payables)
would prefer to buy a call option and sell a put option.
A company is planning to invest $1,500,000 in Eurobonds for a period of three months. The company wishes to
hedge its exposure using a range forward currency contract in case the dollar strengthens against the Euro. The
spot rate is €1.5/ $1. The company wishes to keep the upper exchange rate at € 1.6/$ 1 and the lower rate at €
1.4/$1.
Calculate the losses or gains if the spot rate at the end of three months increases by 10% or decreases by 10%.
Will the hedging through the range forward contract benefit the company?
Answer
The principal amount of the range forward contract is €2,250,000 (1,500,000 x 1.5).
If the expected spot rate in 3 months is above 1.6, the value of the investment in dollars will be:
=
€2,250,000
1.6
= $1,406,250
If the expected spot rate in 3 months is below 1.4, the value of the investment in dollars will be:
=
€2,250,000
1.4
= $1,607,143
If the expected spot rate at the end of three months increases by 10% ( 1.5 x 1.10) = 1.65, the value of the
investment in dollars will be
=
€2,250,000
1.65
= $1,363,636
Although the new value ought to have been $1,363,636, by entering into the range forward contract, the value of
investment will not fall below $1,406,250 as calculated above.
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If the expected spot rate at the end of three months decreases by 10% (1.5 x 0.9), the value of the investment in
dollars will be:
=
€2,250,000
1.35
= $1,666,667
However, by entering into the range forward contract, the value of investment will be restricted to $1,607,143 as
calculated above.
Therefore, by using a range forward, the company minimises its losses (as well as its gains) due to volatile
currency fluctuations.
The investor has the opportunity to take advantage of the favourable price movement towards the upper limit of
the contract range, At the same time he is protected against unfavourable movements below the lower limit of
the contract range. Within the range, the contract is settled at the spot rate at maturity.
2. Participating forward contracts
A participating forward contract is an agreement that allows a company to cap its downside currency risk
through a worst case exchange rate.
It however allows the company to participate in any favourable movements in the exchange rates. The
participation in the profits due to exchange rate fluctuations is based on a percentage of the difference between
the future spot rate and the worst case exchange rate.
Continuing the above example
Assuming that the bank allows the company to participate in up to 40% of the profits, then the company will
have the downside risk capped at $1,363,636 but the profit will be limited to:
€=
2,250,000
=
$1,480,263
1.6 − 0.4(1.6 − 1.4 )
2.3 Execution of forward contracts
Usually, in a forward contract, the date, amount and the currency to be delivered are predetermined and the
client is bound by the forward agreement. Theoretically speaking, the details of the contract are not expected to
vary and on the due date of the forward contract, the client will either deliver (or take delivery) of the agreed
currency.
However, in practice, the delivery under a forward contract could take place either before or after the due date
due to a change in circumstances. The bank could agree to these variations, provided the client agrees to bear
any loss. During the settlement of the forward contract, three possibilities could emerge:
1. The foreign exchange could be delivered on the due date, before the due date or after the due date.
2. The client could request for cancellation of the forward contract on the due date, before the due date or after
the due date.
3. The client could request for an extension of the forward contract on the due date, before the due date or
after the due date.
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1. Execution Mechanism
When the bank enters into a forward purchase contract with a customer, it would have covered its position by
entering into a forward sale contract with the inter-bank market for the same amount and for a matching period.
Executing forward contract by delivering foreign currency on due date
This is normally the basic intention of the parties to the forward contract. When the foreign currency is delivered
on the due date of the forward contract, the rate applied will be the originally agreed rate, irrespective of the
prevailing spot rate
st
st
Suppose a bank has agreed on 1 April to sell USD 10,000 to the customer delivery on 1 June at the rate of
st
Tshs 1600 per USD. Theoretically, on the same day, that is, on 1 April, a forward purchase would be made by
the bank with the market for USD 10,000 due June.
The idea is that during June when the contract matures, the bank can realise the purchase contract and sell it to
st
the customers. On 1 June the bank will deliver the $ 10,000 to the customer at Tshs1600 per USD even if the
spot on that day is Tshs1650.
Cancellation of forward contract on due date
When a forward purchase contract is cancelled on the due date, it is treated as if the bank purchases the foreign
currency at the rate originally agreed forward rate and sells the currency back to the customer at the bank’s
selling rate as applicable on the due date. The difference between the originally agreed forward rate and the
bank’s selling rate on the due date is either paid to / recovered from the exporter.
If the originally agreed forward rate is higher than the bank’s selling rate, the difference is payable to the
customer. Conversely, if the forward rate is lower, the difference is recoverable from the customer.
When a forward sale contract is cancelled on the due date, it is treated as if the bank sells the foreign currency
at the originally agreed forward rate and purchases the currency back at the bank’s buying rate. The difference
between these rates is either paid to/recovered from the customer.
A customer with whom the Bank had entered into 3 months forward purchase contract for Brazilian BRLs
10,000 at the rate of Tshs710 comes to the bank after 2 months and requests cancellation of the contract. On
this date, the rates, prevailing, are:
Spot
1 BRL = Tshs 712/13
One month forward
1 BRL = Tshs714/15
What is the loss/gain to the customer on cancellation?
Answer
When the bank enters into a forward purchase contract with a customer, it would have covered its position by
entering into a forward sale contract with the market for the same amount and for a matching period.
With customer
With Inter-bank market
Original contract
(A) Purchase 10,000 BRL @ 710 due
after 3 months
(C) Sell forward due after 3 months
After 2 months
(B) Cancel the original contract
(D) Purchase forward due after 1 month
@ 715
(E) execute (D)
After 3 months
(F) execute (C)
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Gain or Loss to customer:
Purchase of forward contract at
Original contract with customer at
Loss/BRL
Therefore, Loss for 10,000 BRL
Tshs/BRL
715
(710)
5
Tshs50,000
2.4 Forward market hedge
Forward market hedge: a company enters into a binding contract with a bank to buy or sell a certain quantity
of foreign exchange at a predetermined exchange rate at an agreed future date.
Using forward currency rates, a company can sell the expected net inflow of foreign currency and buy the
expected net outflow of foreign currency. A forward market hedge could be covered or uncovered. The forward
hedge is a covered hedge when the funds for the forward contract are in hand or are expected to be
received in the near future. The hedge is an uncovered hedge if the funds needed for the forward exchange
contract are not currently available. These funds need to be purchased on the spot market at some future date.
Forward market hedges suffer from certain limitations. Forward markets do not exist in many countries,
especially smaller developing countries, and even if a forward market does exist it may be restricted in size by
the local government trying to preserve foreign currency reserves. Moreover, in certain countries, foreign
currency hedging is illegal. Even where forward markets exist, hedges are rarely available for periods of more
than one year.
A Tanzanian company has purchased goods from a US company, the payment being due in US$ within three
months of the invoice date. The invoice amount is $10,000 and the current spot rate is US$1/Tshs1600. It is
anticipated that the exchange rate will decline by 10% over the three-month period and, in order to protect
against any rise in the US$ against the Tshs, the Tanzanian importer proposes to take appropriate action
through the foreign exchange market. The three-month forward exchange rate is quoted as US$1/Tshs1650.
Calculate the expected loss and show to what extent it can be hedged by the forward contract.
Answer
Calculation of expected loss and saving due to hedging
No hedging
Tshs16million(10,000x1600)
(Tshs17.6million(10,000x1760)
(Tshs1.6million)
Hedging
Tshs16million (10,000x1600)
(Tshs16.5million)(10,000x1650)
(Tshs0.5million)
Therefore, without hedging, the loss would have been Tshs1.6million but this is reduced to just Tshs0.5million
by hedging.
A US businessman enters into an agreement to purchase a large house in England for a sum of £1000,000. The
full amount has to be in three months. He has adequate funds in his bank account in New York, which fetches
him an 0.33% interest per month, compounded monthly, to pay for the property. At present, the spot exchange
rate is $1.46/£ and the three-month forward exchange rate is $1.41/£. In London, the money market interest rate
is 2.2% for a three-month investment. His investment adviser informs him he can decide on two alternative ways
of paying for the property.
1. Continue to maintain the funds in his New York bank account and buy £1.0 million forward.
2. Purchase pounds at spot today and invest the amount in a London bank for three months so that at the end
of three months the maturity value equals to £1.0million.
Required:
Evaluate both the payment methods and explain which method you would recommend.
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3. Evaluate and assess financial and planning options for a business giving advice based on
business scenarios using money market cover.
[Learning Outcomes c]
3.1 Money market cover
Instead of hedging a currency exposure with a forward contract, a firm can make use of the money markets to
lend or borrow and achieve a similar result. The purpose of using a money market cover or hedge is to avoid
future exchange rate uncertainty by making the exchange at the spot rate instead. This is achieved by either
depositing or borrowing the foreign currency until the actual transaction cash flows take place.
Money market cover: the process of borrowing in the money market of a country, converting the funds
borrowed at the spot rate of the currency of the country in which payment is due, and investing in a second
country.
The total receipts (principal plus interest) after liquidating the foreign currency investment are then used to make
business payments.
A Tanzanian company which expects to pay in Sterling in six months’ time could protect against the risk of the
Sterling appreciating in value by converting Tanzanian shillings into Sterling now at the spot rate, investing the
Sterling acquired for six months, and at the end of the six-month period, using the invested Sterling plus interest
to make the payment due, in Sterling. Since Tanzanian shillings have been converted into Sterling, any possible
future foreign exchange risk can be avoided. The cost effectiveness of the money market hedge and the forward
market hedge will depend upon the levels of interest rates in Tanzania and the UK. Usually, a forward market
hedge is cheaper than a money market hedge.
The difference between a money market hedge and a forward hedge is that in a money market hedge, the
currency is required immediately, whereas in a forward market hedge, the currency is required at the end of
the contract period.
A company may have foreign exchange receivable or foreign exchange payable claims. In other words, a
company may have:
1. an expected inflow of foreign currency
2. an expected outflow of foreign currency
3.2 Steps in money market hedging
From the view point of ->
1. Find out whether there is
Forex liability or asset
2. Create a hedging position
3. Borrow amount required to
create hedging position
Borrower / importer
Will have a foreign currency (FC)
Liability
Create FC Asset
Borrow domestic currency for an
amount equal to the Present
Value (PV) of FC liability
(PV to be calculated with discount
rate i.e. deposit rate in foreign
country)
Investor / exporter
Will have a foreign currency (FC)
Asset
Create FC Liability
Borrow foreign currency loan
abroad for amount equal to PV of
Forex asset
(PV to be calculated with discount
rate i.e. borrowing rate)
4. Convert borrowed money
into required currency
5. Invest the amount converted
Domestic currency into FC using
spot rate
Invest the FC abroad carrying
interest at FC deposit rate
Foreign currency into domestic
currency at spot rate
Invest domestic currency carrying
interest at domestic deposit rate
6. Settle the position on due
date
Get maturity proceeds with
interest on FC deposit and settle
FC liability with those proceeds.
Receive FC from customer and
use it to settle the FC borrowing.
Get back the domestic fixed
deposit with interest.
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Rufiji Trades has a foreign supplier and must pay $350,000 to the supplier in six months' time. The concern of
the financial manager is that the cost of the supplies may rise in terms of Tanzanian shilling . He has decided to
hedge the currency risk of this account payable.
The following information has been provided by the banker of Rufiji Trades:
Spot rate Tshs per $):
1600 ± 5
Six months forward rate (Tshs per $ ): 1650 ± 7
Money market rates available to Rufiji Trades:
One-year Tshs interest rates:
One-year dollar interest rates:
Borrowing
8%
4·0%
Deposit
7%
3·5%
Assume that it is now 1 December and that Rufiji Trades has no surplus cash at the present time.
In this situation, money market hedge can be used to hedge the foreign account payable in the following
manner:
Step1
Rufiji being an importer, needs to create a FC asset.
Thus, it needs to borrow domestic currency for an amount equal to the Present Value (PV) of FC liability.
For calculating PV of $ liability, we will use $ deposit rate as discount rate
PV of $ 350000 for 6 months @ 3.5% pa = 3,50,000 / (1+0.035/2) = 3,50,000 / 1.0175 = $343,980
Step 2
Convert $ 343,9800 into Tshs using spot rate. As the exchange rates given are for Rufiji, the premium must be
added to get selling rate.
Hence the spot selling rate = 1600 +5 = 1605
Hence the amount to be borrowed (in Tshs) will be $343,980 x1605 = Tshs552,087,900
This will be borrowed for 6 months carrying interest at 4%.
0.08 / 2 = 0.045
Step 3
Convert the domestic currency borrowed into foreign currency using spot rate. Hence the amount in $ will be
Tshs552,087,900/1605 = $343,980.
Invest the FC abroad carrying interest at FC deposit rate.
Invest $343,980 abroad at 3.5%. This amount will grow to $350,000 after 6 months.
Step 4
On the due date, receive the maturity proceeds with interest on $ deposit and settle $ liability, with those
proceeds. At the end of six months the value of Tshs borrowing (along with interest) will be = Tshs552,087,900
x 1.04 = Tshs574,171,416. This will be paid off to the bank.
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On January 1, 20X7, Beck Ltd bought electronic equipment from a foreign firm that will require the payment of
local currency LC 900,000 on March 31, 20X7.
The spot rate on January 1, 20X7 is LC 10 per dollar; the expected future spot rate is LC 8 per dollar; and the
ninety-day forward rate is LC 9 per dollar. The US interest rate is 12% and the foreign interest rate is 8%.
Beck Ltd is considering three alternatives to deal with the risk of exchange rate fluctuations:
(a) To enter the forward market to buy LC 900,000 at the ninety-day forward rate in effect on March 31, 20X7. (b)
To borrow an amount in dollars to buy the LC at the current spot rate. This money along with the interest
income is to be invested in government securities of the foreign country. The resultant amount should equal
LC 900,000 on March 31, 20X7.
(c) To wait until March 31, 20X7, and buy LC at whatever spot rate prevails at that time.
Required:
Identify and explain the alternative that Beck Ltd should follow in order to minimise its cost of meeting the future
payment in LCs?
Advantages and disadvantages
Although not as popular as forward exchange contract, money market cover is also used for hedging currency
transaction exposures.
The advantages are:
Money market cover or money market hedge eliminates downside risk exposure by crystallising the future
rate
It provides flexibility with regard to the amount to be covered
Where forward contracts are not available, money market cover may be available as a means of hedging
currencies.
The disadvantages are:
Money market cover or money hedge is complicated to organise than a forward contract
It offers no opportunity to take advantage of favourable movements in exchange rates as it fixes the future
rate.
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4. Evaluate and assess financial and planning options for a business giving advice based on
business scenarios using currency options.
[Learning Outcomes d]
4.1Currency options
Currency options give the buyer the right but not the obligation to buy or sell a specific amount of foreign
currency at a specific exchange rate (the strike price) on or before a predetermined future date. For this
protection, the buyer has to pay a premium.
A currency option may be either a call option or a put option. A put option gives the right to sell a foreign
currency whereas a call option gives the right to buy a foreign currency. The use of a call option or put option
depends upon the requirement of a company in a specific situation.
1. Hedging using currency options
(a) One can make a profit when prices rise:
(i) Buys a call option and
(ii) Writes (sells) a put option.
Before the price rises
(b) One can make a profit when prices rise if one:
(i) Buys a put option and
(ii) Writes (sells) a call option.
Before the price falls
2. The steps for hedging using currency options are as follows:
(a) Identification of the underlying transaction that the company intends to hedge.
(b) Identification of the currency risk in the underlying transaction.
(c) Construction of a put / call position that results in a profit if a loss occurs on the underlying transaction.
(d) Identification of the contract that should be used for hedging.
(e) Calculate the number of contracts to create the hedge.
Assuming Sterling as the home currency, currency options can be used as follows
Importers buy £ put options or sell £ call options.
Exporters buy £ call options or sell £ put options.
While calculating the number of contracts, the following two considerations need to be made:
Expiry date: choose the first contract to expire after the date of the transaction i.e. the day on which the
cash changes hands.
Exercise price: here you can arbitrarily select an exercise price to do an illustrative calculation. Then at the
end of the calculation, you should state that in practice, the company would consider a range of exercise
prices and a range of future spot rates to decide which option provides the best cover.
The number of contracts can now be calculated by dividing the foreign currency exposure by the options
exercise price that is selected above. This gives the required home currency exposure. Divide this by the
contract size to ascertain the number of contracts.
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It is now September 20. Prime plc is purchasing a machine from the US for $310,000 and the amount is to be
paid in 3 months’ time.
Current spot rate is $/£: 1.5900 – 1.5950
New York Stock Exchange £/$ Options (prices are cents per £)
Foreign Currency Option Prices
Contract size £62,500
Exercise
price
1.5
Sept
8.35
Dec
12.3
1.6
5.6
8.45
2.2
5.62
1.7
4.5
3.9
3.67
8.73
Sept
-
Dec
-
Assuming that options contracts mature at the end of the relevant month, Prime can hedge the exchange rate
risk using currency options contract as follows:
What is the exercise price? You can choose an
1. Buy £ put options
exercise price to make an illustrative calculation
2. Maturity: December $1.60
since there will not be enough time in the
3. Number of contracts: ($310,000/$1.60)/£62,500 examination to consider all the exercise prices. It
could be mentioned at the end of the calculation
= 3.1 or 3 contracts
that, in practice, you would consider a range of
4. Premium cost = 5.62 cents X (3 X 62,500) /15,900
exercise prices and a range of future spot rates to
see which option gives the best cover.
= $10,537.50 / $ 1.5900 = £6,627
Therefore, Prime Plc should buy 3 December put options contract, assumed exercise price of $1.60/£ with
premium of £6,627.
Assuming that the spot rate in three months is either
$1.5500 – 1.5610 OR
$1.7025 – 1.7100
The hedge can be evaluated as follows
(i) Exchange rate moves to $1.5500 - $1.5610:
Exercise the put option.
1. Sell £: 3 X 62,500 = £187,500
Buy $: $1.60 X 187,500
= $ 300,000
(£187,500)
2. Shortfall: $310,000 - $300,000 = $10,000/$1.5500
(£ 6,452)
3. Premium cost: ignoring time value of money
Net payment
(£ 6,627)
(£200,579)
(ii) Exchange rate moves to $1.7025, it is now cheaper to use the spot rate instead of options
Do not exercise the options
1. Payment in spot market: $310,000/$1.7025 (£182,085)
2. Premium cost: ignore time value of money (£6,627)
Net payment
(£188,712)
Currency option contracts limit the maximum loss to the premium paid up-front and provide the buyer with the
opportunity to take advantage of favourable exchange rate movements.
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3. Factors determining the currency option premium:
difference between the strike price and the spot rate of the currency options
time to maturity
volatility in the exchange rates
interest rates
4. Features of currency options
The main features of currency options are:
(a) A currency option gives its holder the right to buy (call option) or sell (put option) a quantity of one currency
in exchange for another, on or before a specified date, at a fixed rate of exchange (the strike rate for the
option).
(b) Currency options can be purchased over-the-counter or on an exchange.
(c) Traded currency options are for a standard quantity of one currency in exchange for another currency, and
strike prices are quoted as exchange rates. The premiums are normally quoted as an amount in one
currency per unit of the other currency.
(d) A currency option could be American or European. An American currency option is one that can be
exercised on any business day up to and including the expiry date. A European currency option can be
exercised only on the expiry date of the option.
KTP, a UK based multinational, is planning to purchase machinery from US costing $110,000 in 3 months time.
It is now 31 December. The following details are given:
Foreign exchange rates
$/£
Spot
1.7982 – 1.8010
3-month forward
1.7835 – 1.7861
Currency options: £62,500 contract size. Premium is in cents per £.
Calls
February
2.91
1.96
Strike price
1.78
1.80
May
3.84
3.00
February
2.12
3.17
Puts
May
4.20
5.34
Calculate the expected outcome, if the company decides to hedge its dollar exposure using currency options.
Answer
Currency options
Since, it is 31 December now and the time of the transactions is 31 March, the May options should be used.
This is because, the February options would already have expired. KTP will be required to purchase put options
since pounds need to be sold to purchase dollars. The dollar payment is $110,000, which is equivalent to
approximately one £62,500 option contract ($110,000/£1.7982).
Option hedge
Strike
price
$ if exercised
Premium ($)
Premium £
Overhedge ($)
(at spot
1.7982)
1.78
111,250(£62,500x$1.78)
1.80
112,500(£62,500x$1.80)
2,625(£62,500
x$0.0420)
3,338(£62,500
x$0.0534)
1,460($2625/
1.7982)
1,856($3338/
1.7982)
1,250($111250110,000)
2,500($112,500$110,000)
Overhedge
(£)
(at forward
1.7861)
700($1,250/1.
7861)
1,400($2,500/
1.7861)
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Worst case outcomes using currency options can be calculated as:
1·78:62,500 + 1,460 – 700 = £63,,260
1·80:62,500 + 1,856 – 1,400 = £62,956
If the dollar weakens more than the relevant strike price, the option could be lapsed, and the necessary
$110,000 purchased in the spot market at a more favourable exchange rate
Advantages
There are several advantages of currency options:
(a) They protect a company against adverse currency fluctuations and enable it to take advantage of favourable
foreign exchange rate movements.
(b) They enable a company to hedge against foreign exchange risk if it is uncertain in what direction future
exchange rates might move.
(c) They provide an effective currency hedge, especially when foreign exchange markets are volatile.
Disadvantages
(a) The option premium is payable regardless of whether or not the option is exercised.
(b) Exchange-traded currency options are available only in a limited number of currencies with specific expiration
dates. OTC currency options offer better flexibility.
4.2 Currency straddle and strangles
1. Straddle
A straddle is a derivative position, which involves the simultaneous purchase (or sale) of a call option and a put
option at the same strike price and time to expiry.
Maxphone Ltd. is about to publish its quarterly financial results in a week’s time. A trader is convinced that the
the results of Maxphone will cause a large movement in the price of its stock but does not know whether the
price will go up or down (depending upon whether the company does well or performs badly).
He can enter into a long straddle, where he earns a profit irrespective of the way the price of Maxphone’s stock
moves. If the price goes up enough, he uses the call option and does not exercise the put option. If the price
goes down, he uses the put option and ignores the call option. If the price does not change enough, he will lose
the amount paid for the purchase of the two options.
Straddles are undertaken if the buyer of the straddle expects the currency prices to be volatile but is not sure if
the currency will appreciate or depreciate. Straddles are suitable to traders (speculators) who try to make profits
from volatile currency movements but do not have a future commitment in any currency. Straddles may be long
or short.
(a) Long straddle
A long straddle involves buying both a call option and a put option at the same strike price and time to expiry.
The owner of a long straddle makes a profit if the exchange rate moves widely (i.e. more than the sum of the
premiums of the put and call) from the strike price, either above or below.
Therefore, an investor can invest in a long straddle position if he expects the market to be highly volatile, but
does not know in which direction it is going to move.
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Diagram 1: Long straddle
A long straddle strategy results in maximum profits if the market price of the underlying asset at the expiry date
moves widely either upwards or downwards. The maximum loss occurs when the price of the underlying at
expiration is equal to the strike price.
A trader believes that the dollar will move widely against the Sterling but does not know whether the price will go
up or down. He can enter into a long straddle, where he gets a profit no matter which way the dollar moves, if
the price moves widely either way.
If the price moves to a level higher than the sum of the premiums of the call option and put option, he exercises
the call option and ignores the put option. If the price falls, he exercises the put option and ignores the call
option. If the price does not change sufficiently, he incurs a loss.
Suppose gold is trading at $1,300 per 10gms in the spot market as on 30 April. Bob enters a long straddle by
buying a May 1,350 gold put option for $ 80 and a May 1,350 call option for $100. The net debit taken to enter
the trade is $180, which is also his maximum possible loss.
Strategy: Buy Put + Buy Call
Gold
Call and Put
Bob pays
Current Value
Strike Price ($.)
Total Premium
(Call + Put) ($.)
1,300
1,350
180
Upper Break Even Point($)
Lower Break Even Point($)
1,530(U)
1,170(L)
Breakeven:
Upper Breakeven Point = Strike price of long call + Net Premium Paid
Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of long put – Net Premium Paid
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Payoff schedule
On expiry, Gold
closes at
1350
Net Payoff from Put
purchased ($)
270
(1,350 - 1,000 - 80)
220
(1,350 - 1,050 - 80)
170
(1,350 - 1,100 - 80)
100
(1,350 - 1,170 - 80)
20
(1,350 - 1,250 - 80)
(80)
1400
(80)
1450
(80)
1530
(80)
1600
(80)
1650
(80)
1000
1050
1100
1170
1250
Net Payoff from Call
purchased ($)
Net Payoff ($)
(100)
170
(270 - 100)
(100)
120
(100)
70
(100)
0
(100)
(80)
(100)
(50)
(1,400 - 1,350 – 100)
0
(1,450 - 1,350 - 100)
80
(1,530 - 1,350 - 100)
150
(1,600 - 1,350 - 100)
200
(1.650 - 1,350 - 100)
(180)
(130)
(80)
0
70
120
(b) Short straddle
A short straddle involves selling both a call option and a put option at the same strike price and time to expiry.
The owner of a short straddle makes a profit if the exchange rate moves narrowly from the strike price, either
above or below. The profit is limited to the extent of the premiums of the put and call options, but it is risky if the
exchange rate fluctuates widely. The strategy breaks even if the intrinsic value of the put or the call equals the
sum of the premiums of the put and call. Therefore an investor may take a short straddle position if he expects
the currency market to be less volatile, but does not know in which direction it is going to move. A short straddle
position is highly risky, because the profitability is limited to the premium whereas the potential loss is unlimited.
Diagram 2: Short straddle
A short straddle strategy results in maximum profits if the market price of the underlying asset at expiration is
equal to the strike price. The maximum loss occurs if the market price of the underlying asset at expiration
moves widely either upwards or downwards.
2. Strangle
A strangle is a derivative position which involves the simultaneous purchase (or sale) of a call option and a put
option with the same time to expiry but with different strike prices. A strangle has a lower risk than a straddle.
Although the seller gives up a substantial amount of potential profit by selling a strangle rather than a straddle,
he also incurs less risk. It should, however, be noted that a strangle requires strong price movements in either
direction before it begins to lose money. Strangles may be long or short.
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(a) Long strangle
A long strangle involves buying a currency call option and a put option with the same time to expiry but with
different strike prices. This strategy is adopted when the currency options trader thinks that the currency will
experience high volatility in the short term. It has a limited loss and an unlimited profit potential.
Diagram 3: Long strangle
A long strangle strategy results in maximum profits if the market price of the underlying asset at expiration
moves widely either upwards or downwards. The maximum, but limited loss occurs when the price of the
underlying at expiration is trading between the strike prices of the options bought.
(b) Short strangle
A short strangle involves selling a call option and a put option with the same time to expiry but with different
strike prices. This strategy is adopted when the currency options trader thinks that the currency will experience
less volatility in the short term. It has a limited profit and an unlimited loss potential.
Diagram 4: Short strangle
A short strangle strategy results in maximum, but limited profits if the market price of the underlying asset at
expiration is trading between the strike prices of the options sold. The maximum loss occurs if the market price
of the underlying asset at expiration moves widely either upwards or downwards.
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An investor bought three June call options with a 90 strike price at a price of 2.5 (¢/€).
Required:
(a) What would be the total dollar cost for these calls, ignoring broker fees? Assume each call option is
€62,500.
(b) After holding these calls for 60 days, he sold them for 3.9 (¢/€). Calculate his net profit on the contracts.
Assume that brokerage fees on both entry and exit were $5 per contract and opportunity cost was 10% per
annum on the money tied up in the premium.
5
Evaluate and assess financial and planning options for a business giving advice based on
business scenarios using currency swaps.
[Learning Outcomes e]
Concept of Swaps
A swap can be defined as a bilateral over the counter (OTC) derivative contract in which two parties exchange
one stream of future cash flows for another stream of cash flows over a period of time.
One of these parties is usually a bank or a financial institution. These streams are called the legs of the swap.
The cash flows are calculated over a notional principal amount. Swaps are often used to hedge certain risks, for
instance foreign currency rate risk. Swaps are mainly classified as currency swaps and interest rate swaps.
A swap, in itself, is neither a borrowing nor a lending. The size of the swap is referred to as the notional amount
and is the basis for calculation.
1. Currency swaps
A currency swap is a contract in which two counterparties exchange a specific amount of two different
currencies, exchange interest payments in the two currencies over the term of swap and re-exchange the
principal at maturity.
In a currency swap, the transactions between the two parties are in different currencies. Since different
currencies are involved, the notional principal is also exchanged. The two currency swaps can be combined to
produce a plain interest rate swap.
Steps involved in currency swap
Step 1: Exchange of principal currency amounts.
Step 2: Interest payments exchanged periodically throughout the life of the swap.
Step 3: Principal amounts re-exchanged at the end of the swap.
Types of currency swaps
Fixed to fixed currency swap: involves exchanging fixed interest obligations on a loan in one currency for
fixed interest obligations on an equivalent loan in another currency.
Fixed to floating currency swap: in this method, fixed rate obligations in one currency are swapped for
floating rate obligations in another currency. It is also known as a cross-currency interest rate swap or a
currency coupon swap. For example, US dollars at fixed rates can be swapped against Sterling with LIBOR
+ floating rate.
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If X raises Euros by issuing 10% Euro bonds and Y raises dollars by issuing 12% dollar bonds in the US market,
a currency swap between them may be represented diagrammatically as follows:
Mickey Ltd wishes to lend US$600,000 to its Japanese subsidiary. At the same time, Hibakki Heavy Industries
is interested in making a medium-term loan of approximately the same amount to its US subsidiary. The two
parties are brought together by an investment bank for the purpose of making parallel loans. Mickey will lend
$600,000 to the US subsidiary of Hibakki for 4 years at 15%.
The principal and interest amounts are payable only at the end of the fourth year along with interest
compounding annually. Hibakki will lend the equivalent in Yen at the current exchange rate to the Japanese
subsidiary of Mickey (i.e. ¥60 million for 4 years at 12%). Again the principal and interest (annual compounding)
are payable at the end of the fourth year, assuming a fixed exchange rate equal to the current rate. The current
exchange rate is ¥100 to the dollar.
(a) If these expectations prove to be correct, what will the dollar equivalent of principal and interest payments to
Hibakki, at the end of the 4 years?
(b) Compute the total amount in dollars that Mickey will receive at the end of the 4 years, from the payment of
principal and interest on its loan by the US subsidiary of Hibakki?
(c) Which party will gain the most from the parallel loan agreement?
Answer
4
(a) Amount payable by Mickey to Hibakki after 4 years 60(1 + 0.12) = ¥94.41million
In dollars =
94,410,000
100
= $944,100
4
(b) Amount payable by Hibakki to Mickey after 4 years = 600,000(1 + 0.15) = $1,049,404
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(c) Therefore, Mickey will gain the most from the parallel loan agreement because the amount received is more
than the amount payable.
If the exchange rate had not been fixed at ¥100 for the four years, given the differential interest rates, the US$
would probably have depreciated against the ¥. If the exchange rate was ¥90 or less to the dollar, Hibakki
would have gained the most from the parallel loan agreement.
Benefits of currency swaps
Enable a company to obtain funds at a cheaper rate than borrowing in the domestic market, thereby
resulting in cost reduction.
Enable a company to hedge its currency exposure for longer time periods than is possible with forward
contracts.
Enable a company to restructure its debt profile without physical redemption or issue of new debt.
Enable access to international capital market by avoiding exchange control restrictions.
Usually cheaper than forwards.
Disadvantages of currency swaps
In the case of adverse movements in exchange rates, the swap may not achieve its purpose of cost
reduction.
There is the possibility that the counterparty may default giving rise to a credit risk. Swaps arranged with a
bank as the counterparty usually tend to be less risky.
If the government imposes exchange control restrictions, the swap could turn out to be risky.
2. FOREX swaps
A FOREX swap is similar to a currency swap with the only difference being that, in an FOREX swap, there is no
exchange of interest payments.
However, the principal is exchanged at the start of the swap and re-exchanged at the end of the swap. FOREX
swaps are useful for companies:
which face difficulties in raising funds in certain currencies
for hedging currency risks for a longer time period than is possible through forward contracts
Advance Electronics ( AE), a US based company would like to borrow pounds, and Royal Foods (RF), which is
a UK company desires to borrow dollars. AE can borrow in dollars at 7 percent and pounds at 9 percent,
whereas RF can on its own borrow dollars at 8 percent and pounds at 8.5% AE wants to borrow £10 million for
two years and RF wants to borrow $16 million for two years, and the current ($/£) exchange rate is $1.60.
Required:
(a) What is the swap transaction the two companies can enter into to achieve their plans?
Note: You may assume the counterparties would exchange principal and interest payments without any rate
adjustments.
(b) Calculate the savings that AE and RF can achieve.
(c) Suppose AE can borrow dollars at 7 percent and pounds at 9 percent, whereas RF can borrow dollars at
8.75 percent and pounds at 9.5 percent. What range of interest rates would make this swap attractive to
both parties?
(d) Based on the scenario in part (c), suppose AE borrows dollars at 7 percent and RF borrows pounds at 9.5
percent. If the parties swap their current proceeds, with AE paying 8.75 percent to RF for pounds and RF
paying 7.75 percent to AE for dollars, what are the cost savings to each party?
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Answers to Test Yourself
Answer to TY 1
(a) Maintain the same Tanzanian shilling price:
The new exchange rate, post devaluation will be Tshs1,600 x 1.15 = Tshs1,840
The current price in Tshs= $50 x Tshs1,600 = Tshs80,000
Sales revenues at the post devaluation rate
(Tshs80,000 x 200,000)/(Tshs1,840) = $8,695,652
Direct cost = ($30 x 200,000) = $6,000,000
Contribution margin = $8,695,652 - $6,000,000 = $2,695,652
(b) Maintain the same dollar price:
The new sales volume will be 200,000 unitsx0.9 = 180,000 units
The new price in Tshs =$50 x The real price = $200* R$4.00/$ = R$800
Sales revenues = 180,000 x $50 = $9,000,000
Direct cost = ($30 x 189,000) = $5,400,000
Contribution margin = $9,000,000 - $5,400,000 = $3,600,000
(c) In the short run, choose alternative b, as the contribution by maintaining the USD price is higher by
$904,348 than if the price were to be reduced.
Answer to TY 2
(a) To settle the forward contract amounting to £1.0million in 3 months’ time, the amount of dollars required
= £1.0million x $ 1.41= $1.41million
As the funds are required 3 months hence, and his investment in the bank earns 0.35% compounded monthly,
the present value of the investment in dollars
3
=$1.41million/(1.0033) = $1,396,007.
Thus, the present value of the property is $1,396,007.
(b) Purchase pounds at spot today and invest in a London bank.
We first determine the amount in pounds needed today that will equal to £1.0million in three months time.
As the interest rate in London is 2.2% for 3 months,
The present value of £1.0million = £1.0million/1.022 = £978,474.
The businessman has to buy £978,474 today at today’s spot of $1.46/£.
= £978,474x1.46 = $1,428,575
Under this alternative, the cost of the property is $1,428,575.
On a comparison of the two alternatives, it is clear that buying pounds 3 months forward is cheaper than
investing in the money market in London . By doing this , the business pays $ 32,568 (2.3%) less for the
property.
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Answer to TY 3
Option I
Forward market hedge
Amount payable after 3 month
900,000
= $100,000
9
Option II Money market hedge
Let the amount borrowed be x
Therefore,
10x + 10x × 0.08x
90
= 900,000
365
x = 88,261
Therefore, amount to be borrowed in $
Add: Interest paid = 88,947 x 0.12 x 90 / 365
Therefore, net cost
$
88,261
2,612
90,873
Option III Keep the exposure open i.e. no hedge
Amount payable after 90 days (900,000/8) = $112,500
Therefore, Beck Ltd should opt for the money market hedge since it results in a cost of $90,873, which is the
lowest amongst the three options.
Answer to TY 4
(a) With each call option being for €62,500, the three contracts combined are for €187,500. At a price of 2.5¢/€,
the total cost is therefore 187,500 x $0.025 = $4687.50
(b) The net profit would be 1.4¢/€ (3.9 - 2.5) for a total profit before expenses of $2625 (0.014 x 187,500).
Brokerage fees (exit and entry of $ 5 each) are $10 per contract or $30 for 3 contracts.
The opportunity cost would be $4,687.50 x 0.10 x 60/365 = $77.04.
After deducting the expenses of $30 + $77.04= $107.04, the net profit is $2517.96
Answer to TY 5
(a) AE would pay 8.5% on the £10 million it borrows from RF as that is the cost RF would have to pay ton its
Sterling borrowings. Similarly, RF would pay 7% on its $16 million it borrows from AE.
(b) The alternative for AE was to borrow GBP at 9%. Thus, AE can save 0.5% for an annual savings of
£50,000. Similarly, RF only pays an interest rate of 7% instead of 8% on its dollar borrowings, saving 1% or
$160,000 annually.
(c) RF would have to offer AE a GBP rate of less than 9%. Since RF has to borrow GBP at 9.5%, it would have
to save at least 0.5% on its dollar borrowing from AE to compensate for the interest rate differential and
make the swap worthwhile.
If RF lends pounds to AE at 9%-x%
Its cost of borrowing pounds from its bank is 9.5%. Therefore it would lose (9% -x%) - 9.5%, i.e. (0.5%+x%)
when it lends pounds to AE. Therefore, in order to compensate for this loss, the maximum rate of interest that
RF can afford to pay on its dollar borrowings from AE will have to be8.75% - (0.5% + x%).
(d) Under this situation, AE saves 0.25% on its pound borrowings and earns 0.75% on the dollars it swaps with
RF for a total benefit of 1% annually. RF loses 0.75% on the pounds it swaps with AE and saves 1% on the
dollars it receives from RF, for a net savings of 0.25% annually.
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Quick Quiz
1. Transaction exposure arises when a firm faces contractual cash flows that are fixed in a foreign currency.
True/False.
2. The BOP equation states that current account + capital account + official reserve account = 1. True/False
3. In a forward market hedge, a firm enters into a binding contract with a bank to buy or sell a certain quantity
of foreign exchange at a predetermined
at an agreed future date. (Fill in the blanks)
A exchange rate
B interest rate
C swap rate
4. A disadvantage of a money market cover is that it crystallises the future rate and thus eliminates downside
risk exposure. (True/False)
5. A foreign currency
option gives the holder the right to
a foreign currency, whereas a foreign
currency
option gives the holder the right to
an option.(Fill in the blanks with the appropriate
terms-call, sell, put, buy )
6. A currency swap is
. (Complete the sentence)
Answers to Quick Quiz
1. True
2. False. The BOP equation should be zero.
3. exchange rate
4. False. It is fact an advantage.
5. call, buy, put, sell
6. A currency swap is a contract in which two counterparties exchange a specific amount of two different
currencies, exchange interest payments in the two currencies over the term of swap and re-exchange the
principal at maturity.
Self Examination Questions
Question 1
The inflation rate in the US and India is expected to be 2 per cent and 4.5 per cent annually. The current spot
rate of US $ in India is Rs 48.4050/US$.
Find the expected rate of US$ in India after one year from now using the purchasing power theory of exchange
rate.
Question 2
Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of forward contracts and currency futures for hedging against foreign
exchange risk.
Question 3
The CEO of Autocrat Plc is reviewing the company's interest rate and currency risk strategies for the next few
months. There has recently been considerable political instability with some countries showing signs of moving
towards economic recession whilst others are still showing steady growth. Both interest rates and currency rates
could become more volatile for many major trading countries.
Autocrat is expected to borrow £6.5 million for a period of six months commencing in six months’ time. The
company also needs to make a US$ payment of $4·3 million in 3 months’ time.
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Assume that it is now 1 December. Futures and options contracts may be assumed to expire at the end of the
relevant month, and the company may be assumed to be able to borrow at the 3 month LIBOR rate.
LIFFE futures prices (£500,000 contract size)
March
June
95·56
95·29
LIFFE options on futures prices, £500,000 contract size. Premiums are annual %
CALLS
March
PUTS
June
March
June
95250
0.445
0.545
0.085
0.185
95500
0.280
0.390
0.170
0.280
95750
0.165
0.265
0.305
0.405
Foreign exchange rates
Spot
3 month forward
$1.4692 - 1.4735/£
$1.4632 - 1.4668/£
Currency option prices
Philadelphia Stock Exchange $/£ options, contract size £31,250, premiums are cents per £
1.450
1.460
1.470
CALLS
PUTS
March
April
March
3.12
1.56
2.55
2.95
1.99
2.14
2.51
April
2.51
-
Three-month LIBOR is currently4·5%
Required:
(a) If the interest rates increase by 0.75% in six months’ time, illustrate the possible results of
(i) futures hedge; and
(ii) options hedge
Recommend which hedge should be selected and explain why there might be uncertainty as to the results of the
hedges.
(b) Illustrate and discuss the possible outcomes of forward market and currency options hedges if possible
currency rates in three months' time are either:
(i) $1.4350 -$1.4386/£ or
(ii) $1.4780 -$1.4820/£.
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Answers to Self Examination Questions
Answer to SEQ 1
According to purchasing power parity
S1 = S 0 ×
(1+ h c )
(1+ hb )
Where,
S0 = current spot rate
hc = inflation rate in country c (India)
hb = inflation rate in country b (USA)
Forward rate after one year = 48.4050 × (1 + 0.045)
(1+ 0.02)
Spot rate after one year = Rs 49.5914 per US$
Answer to SEQ 2
1. Currency forward contracts
Advantages
(i) Currency forward contracts are tailored to the needs of the parties concerned, and offer flexibility in terms of
the size and maturity of contracts.
(ii) Contracts are available in a very wide range of currencies.
(iii) No margin payments are required until the contracts are settled.
Disadvantages
(i) Forward contracts usually involve a bid and an offer price, which means that a company bears the cost of
the bid offer spread which is the dealer / bank’s margin.
(ii) Long-term maturity contracts are rare, and some currencies do not have a forward market.
(iii) Prices could differ according to the size of the deal and the customer.
2. Currency futures
Advantages
(i) Default risk is minimal as the futures contracts are marked-to-market daily by the clearing house, with the
protection of the margin payment.
(ii) Currency futures involve a single specified price, which is transparent.
Disadvantages
(i) An initial margin is usually required, and a further variation margin could be necessary.
(ii) Futures contracts are not very flexible. They are of a specified size and maturity, and are only available for a
very limited number of currencies.
Answer to SEQ 3
(a) Futures hedge
Autocrat plc needs to borrow in six months’ time, and wishes to protect against an increase in interest rates
during the next six months. To do this it will sell June futures contracts.
£6,500,000 6
×
£500,000 3
= 26 contracts at 95.29
(As the period at risk is six months, the number of contracts is doubled, i.e.6/3)
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Basis is 95·29 – 95·50 = (0·21%) (futures price – cash price (100 – 4.5))
At the end of June when the contracts mature, basis will be 0. There are seven months until the maturity date. In
six months’ time when Autocrat needs to borrow the expected basis is:
0.21% x
= 0·03%
1
7
This assumes a linear decline in the basis.
If the interest rate increases by 0.75%, LIBOR will move to 5·25% and the expected futures price is 94·75 – 0·03
=94·72
(100 – LIBOR) – 0.03).
Cash market: The extra cost of a 0·75% increase in interest is: £6,500,000 x 0·75% x 0·5 (six months) =
£24,375
(the tick value is £500,000
Futures market: Sell 26 June contracts at 95.29
x ·01% x 3/12 = £12·50)
Futures market: Buy 26 June contracts at 94.72
Futures market: Gain is 57 ticks (basis points) x £12.50 x 26 contracts = £18,525
The effective overall cost is:
Cash market borrow £6,500,000 at 5.25% for six months = £170,625
(Less) futures gain of £18,525 = £152,100. This is an annual interest rate of 4.68%.
The futures contract effectively locks into the futures rate (4·71%), less the expected basis of 0·03%, or overall
interest rate of 4·68%, not the current cash market rate (4·5%). However, the 4·68% rate is not certain as the
futures price in six months’ time might not be 94·72 because there might not be a linear decline in basis, i.e.
basis risk might exist.
(If the company wished to protect against changes in the current cash market rate it would need to sell more
contracts in order to generate a high enough expected profit).
Options hedge
Autocrat plc would need to buy June put options on futures.
Strike price
(£6,500,000 x 0.185% x 6/12)
95250
95500
95750
Premium cost
£6,012.50
(£6,500,000 x 0.280% x 6/12)
(£6,500,000 x 0.405% x 6/12)
£9,100.50
£13,162.50
(alternatively, the premium may be estimated using basis points multiplied by the tick value for the contract and
number of contracts, e.g. 18·5 x £12.50 x 26 = £6,012.5)
If interest rates increase by 0.75% the options will be exercised (or sold if there is any time value left) and the
futures contracts closed out to make a profit.
This expected profit would be the exercise price at which futures could be sold, less the expected futures price
in six months, multiplied by 100%, the tick value and the number of contracts
Exercise price
Profit
95250
(95·25 – 94·72) x 100 x 26 x £12·5
£17,225
95500
(95·50 – 94·72) x 100 x 26 x £12·5
£25,350
95750
(95·75 – 94·72) x 100 x 26 x £12·5
£33,475
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Exercise price
Overall cost
95250
£170,625 – £17,225 + £6,012·5
£159,412.50
95500
£170,625 – £25,350 + £9,100
£154,375.00
95750
£170,625 – £33,475 + £13,162·5
£150,312.50
The 95750 exercise price has the lowest overall cost, with a worst case effective interest rate of 4·625%, which
is better than the futures rate. It is therefore the recommended hedge. However, the spot futures price at the
time when the option would be exercised / sold is not certain.
If interest rates were to fall rather than increase the option could be allowed to lapse (or sold for time value if
any) and advantage taken of the lower cash market borrowing rates.
(b) Outcome of using a forward market:
Since, a payment of $4.3 million dollars is due, using forward market hedge:
Autocrat plc can buy dollars three months forward. Therefore, the pounds required to buy dollars will be equal to
Buy $ three months forward
$4,300,000
1.4632
= £2,938,764
Outcome of using options hedge:
For purchasing dollars, March put options on pounds should be bought. This is because, the contracts are
Sterling options, March put option contracts should be used, as they are the closest maturity date after the date
of the transaction which is 1 March.
Number of contracts:
$4,300,000/1.45 £2,965,517/31,250 94.90 or 95 contracts
Contract Value
(£2,968,750)
$4,300,000/1.46 £2,945,205/31,250 94.25 or 94 contracts
(£2,937,500)
$4,300,000/1.47 £2,925,170/31,250 93.61 or 94 contracts
(£2,937,500)
Option premiums
Premium
1.45
1.56 cents x £2,968,750 = $46,312/1.4692
£31,522
1.46
1.99 cents x £2,937,500 = $58,456/1.4692
£39,788
1.47
2.51 cents x £2,937,500 = $73,731/1.4692
£50,185
Spot Rate
The Sterling cost is estimated using the spot rate since the option premium is payable upfront.
The possible three-month spot rates for the purchase of dollars are:
(i) $1.4350/£
(ii) $1.4780/£
If the spot rate moves to $1.4350/£ all of the options would be exercised.
1.45 £2,968,750 x 1.45 = $4,304,687
The excess $4,687 could be sold forward at 1.4668/£.
1.46 £2,937,500 x 1.46 = $4,288,750
$11,250 could be bought forward at $1.4632/£.
1.47 £2,937,500 x 1.47 = $4,318,125
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The excess of $18,125 could be sold forward at $1.4668/£.
Total costs
1·45
£2,968,750 – £3,195 + £31,522
£2,997,077
1·46
£2,937,500 + £7,689 + £39,788
£2,984,977
1·47
£2,937,500 – £12,357 + £50,185
£2,975,328
All of the above mentioned are dearer than the forward market.
In case the spot rate moves to $1.4780, then none of the options would be exercised. The expected surplus or
shortfall in dollars, resulting from the amount at risk not being equal to an exact number of currency option
contracts, would still have been sold / bought using forward contracts. The resulting surplus dollars would be
required to be sold, or shortfall in dollars would be required to be purchased to fulfil the forward contracts.
$4,300,000 at spot of $1.4780/£ = £2,909,337
1·45
1·46
£2,909,337 + £31,522 + £3,171 ($4,687 bought at spot of 1.4780)
£2,909,337 + £39,788 – £7,591 ($11,250 surplus at spot of 1.4820)
£2,944,030
£2,941,534
1·47
£2,909,337 + £50,185 + £12,263 ($18,125 bought at 1.4780)
£2,971,785
The above mentioned are still dearer than the forward contract. The spot price of the dollar in three months' time
would have to weaken further in order for the options to be the cheaper hedge.
D3
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STUDY GUIDE D3: OPTION VALUES
Options are considered to be the most attractive among the various derivative contracts. This is because they
are very flexible by nature. While they provide an investor with an opportunity to earn a profit, the downside is
limited and pre-determined.
Options form an important part of financial engineering whether in the field of investments, managing interest
rate risk or foreign exchange risk. It is a tool to effective portfolio management.
In this study guide we shall discuss features of an option contract and option pricing models. Based on these,
several hedging strategies can be adopted using option contracts.
a) Define time and intrinsic value of an option contract.
b) Identify the boundary conditions of options and explain their implications for the determination of option
values.
c) Apply the Black-Scholes option pricing, Binomial option pricing and real option models to determine the
value of an option contract.
d) Discuss the factor that influences the price / value of option contracts.
e) Describe the relationship between call and put prices (call-put parity) and its implications.
f) Develop hedging strategies based on options.
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1. Define time and intrinsic value of an option contract.
© GTG
[Learning Outcome a]
1.1 Option contracts
An option contract provides the buyer of an option with a right to buy or to sell the underlying instrument or asset
at a pre-determined price. This price is called the exercise price or the strike price.
There are two types of options:
1. Call option: the option to buy the asset
2. Put option: the option to sell the asset
The buyer of the option has to pay a price to the seller of the contract under the terms of the contract. This is
called the option premium. It is non-refundable. Under the terms of the option contract, in case of a call option
the seller of the option has to deliver the underlying security to an option buyer if the call is exercised or, in the
case of a put option, buy the underlying security if the put is exercised. The seller of an option receives the
option premium irrespective of whether the option is exercised or allowed to expire.
1.2 In the Money (ITM), Out of the Money (OTM) and at the Money (ATM)
1. In the Money (ITM)
A buyer of a call option will exercise the option only if the market price is greater than the strike price. The option
is said to be ‘In-the-Money’ in this case. This is because the buyer of the option gains by the exercise of the
option. Conversely, the buyer of a put option will make money through the option only if the market price is
lower than the exercise price.
2. Out of the Money (OTM)
Options will be exercised only when they are In the Money (ITM). Options which have no value are called ‘outof-money’ (OTM). In case of call option, when the market price is lower than the strike price the option is OTM.
A put option would be OTM when the market price is greater than the strike price.
3. At the Money (ATM)
When the strike price and market price are equal the option contract is said to be At the Money (ATM). In such a
case there is no specific advantage of exercising the option. There is also no necessity to scrap the option since
it is not OTM.
1.3 Intrinsic value of an option contract
The option price comprises two price components, the intrinsic value and the time value.
Option price = intrinsic value + time value
The intrinsic value of an option is that part of the option premium which comprises of the difference between
the market price of the underlying asset and the exercise price
In other words, intrinsic value is that part of the option premium which represents the extent to which it is in-themoney (ITM). Intrinsic value for a contract which is out-of-money or at-the-money is zero. However intrinsic
value cannot be negative.
Call options: Intrinsic value = market price of underlying asset - call exercise price
Put options: Intrinsic value = put exercise price – market price of underlying asset
© GTG
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If an equity share is trading at Tshs600, and a Tshs540 call option with 30 days left on it was selling for Tshs80,
that option would have:
Tshs600 – Tshs540 call option = Tshs60 of intrinsic value
The intrinsic value is Tshs60 out of the option premium worth Tshs80.
The intrinsic value of an option is not dependent on the time left until expiration. It is simply an option's minimum
value and it reveals the minimum amount an option is worth.
1.4 Time value of an option contract
Time value of an option is the measure of probability of change in the price of the underlying asset to become
in the money during the period up to expiry.
Time value is the balance of option premium over and above the intrinsic value of the option. An option's time
value is dependent upon the length of time remaining to exercise the option, the moneyness of the option, and
the volatility of the underlying security's market price.
(Moneyness describes the relationship between the strike price of an option and the current trading price of
its underlying security, such as in-the-money, out-of-the-money and at-the-money).
The time value of an option decreases as its expiration date approaches and its value is zero after that date.
Therefore, options can be termed as wasting assets.
Higher the volatility, higher is the time value. In general, time value increases as the uncertainty of the option's
value at expiry increases.
Diagram 1: Time value of an option contract
The above diagram show how the time value of the option decreases (decays). The decay is slow until the last
few days to the expiration date, post which the decay increases resulting in quick erosion of value. This is
critical to decide whether to buy or sell the option, to know the time value of the option. The out-of-the money
options decay at a faster rate near expiry since there is only a remote possibility of their going in-the-money.
Call options: Time value = call premium - intrinsic value
Put options: Time value = put premium - intrinsic value
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We continue the same example given for the intrinsic value calculation. If the option premium is worth Tshs80, it
means that the balance of Tshs20 is due to the time value.
Time value = option premiumTshs80 – intrinsic value Tshs60 = Tshs20
Complete the table given below:
Intrinsic Value and Time Value (Call options for the Tshs1000 stock)
Premium (option price)
Tshs900
Tshs170
Tshs1000
Tshs100
Tshs1100
Tshs60
Category *
Intrinsic value
Time Value
* Identify whether At-the-money; In-the-money; or Out-of-the-money
2. Identify the boundary conditions of options and explain their implications for the
determination of option values.
[Learning Outcome b]
2.1 Styles of options
There are two styles of exercising options:
1. American style option in which the option can be exercised anytime between the date of purchase and
date of expiry
2. European style option in which the option can be exercised only on the date of expiry
The expiry date is the date up to which the option can be traded. The options are always traded for a specified
number of units of the underlying. In case of on OTC option, the parties negotiate all the terms. In case of
standardised exchange options, the exchange lays down the terms except the price. The option price is
negotiated by the parties.
2.2 The lower boundary condition
An important step in option pricing is to understand the boundary conditions that make the option premium to be
within a particular range, called the lower and upper boundary.
The minimum value of an option is zero .i.e. an option cannot sell at less than zero. Therefore minimum value is
denoted as:
C 0
P 0
The lower boundary condition essentially states that the value of an option can never be less than its intrinsic
value. For a call option, intrinsic value is the greater of the excess of the asset price over the strike price and
zero. For a put option, it is the greater of the excess of the strike price over the asset price and zero.
In other words, the maximum value of an option lies between zero and the intrinsic value i.e.
difference between the underlying market price and strike price in case of a call option
difference between the strike price and the underlying market price in case of a put option.
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In terms of formula:
C = Max (0, S-X)
Where,
C is the call option premium,
S is the market price
X is the strike price
P = Max (0, X-S)
Where,
P is the put option premium
S is the market price
X is the strike price
This floor or lower bound is determined by arbitrage restrictions.
Assume that the premium on a British pound call option is $.01, while the spot rate of the pound is $1.65 and
the exercise price is $1.63. The spread or intrinsic value, (S - X) exceeds the call premium by $0.02, which
would allow for arbitrage.
An investor can purchase the call option for $.01 per unit, exercise the option immediately at $1.63 per pound,
and then sell the pounds in the spot market for $1.65 per unit. This would produce an immediate net profit of
$.01 per unit (the difference of $0.02 – the premium of $0.01). The arbitrage process would continue until the
market forces reduce the spread (S - X) to be less than or equal to the call premium.
American options formulae:
C A ≥ Max 0,S 0 −
X
(1+ r ) t
Where,
CA = current call value,
S0 = market price of underlying asset,
X = exercise price,
r = risk-free rate of interest
t = time to expiration (no. of days/365)
For the American put option, the lower bounds are:
PA ≥ Max[0, X − S 0 ]
P
Where: A = current put value
European options formulae:
In case of European style options, the options cannot be exercised earlier than the expiration date. Therefore, in
this case the lower boundary is either the greater of zero or the underlying market price minus the present value
of the exercise price.
CE ≥ Max 0,SE −
X
(1+ r ) t
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Where,
CE = Value of European call option,
SE = market price of underlying asset,
X = market price,
r = risk-free rate of interest,
t = time to expiration (no. of days/365)
The European put option formula, however is different and is given as:
Where,
EE = value of European put option
SE = market price of underlying asset,
X = exercise price,
r = risk-free rate of interest,
t = time to expiration (no. of days/365)
2.3 The upper boundary condition
The upper bound for a call option premium is equal to the spot exchange rate (S): C= S
If, the call option premium exceeds the spot exchange rate, an investor could arbitrage by selling call options for
a higher price per unit than the cost of purchasing the underlying currency. The arbitrage profit is the difference
between the amount received when selling the premium and the cost of purchasing the currency in the spot
market. Arbitrage would occur until the call option’s premium was less than or equal to the spot rate.
The upper bound for a put option is equal to the option’s exercise price (X): P = X
If the put option premium exceeds the exercise price, the investor could engage in arbitrage by selling put
options. Even if the put options are exercised, the proceeds received from selling the put options exceed the
price paid (which is the exercise price) at the time of exercise. Due to the arbitrage possibilities, option
premiums lie within these boundaries.
In spite of the fact that boundary conditions can be used to determine the range for a currency option’s
premium, they cannot exactly define the appropriate premium for the option. However, there are pricing models
which have been developed to price currency options. Based on information about an option (such as the
exercise price and time to maturity) and about the currency (such as its spot rate, standard deviation, and
interest rate), pricing models can derive the premium on a currency option.
A European call option with an exercise price of 30 has an expiry of 90 days. The underlying shares are quoting
at 35. The risk-free rate is 5%. We determine the lower boundary for the European call option as follows:
Where,
CE = Value of European call option,
SE = market price of underlying asset,
X = market price,
r = risk-free rate of interest,
t = time to expiration (no. of days/365)
CE ≥ Max(0,5.36)
= 5.36
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An option has a strike price of 90 and is currently trading at 96. Assume a risk-free rate of 6%.
Required:
(a) Calculate the minimum and maximum price of 6-month American and European calls.
(b) What would it be if it has a strike price of 95 and currently trading at 90?
3. Apply the Black-Scholes option pricing, Binomial option pricing and real option models to
determine the value of an option contract.
[Learning Outcome c]
3.1 The Black-Scholes option pricing model
The Black-Scholes model can be used to arrive at the fair value of a call option when the share price at the end
of the expiry period can assume continuous values.
Black and Scholes developed an equation which demonstrates the manner in which share prices vary, called
the Geometric Brownian Motion. This equation conveys that share returns will have a lognormal distribution. .i.e.
the logarithm of the share’s return will follow the normal (bell-shaped) distribution.
Black and Scholes proposed that an option’s price is determined by only two variables that are allowed to
change:
time to expiration date; and
the underlying share price.
The other factors such as risk-free rate, exercise price and volatility are assumed to remain constant. By forming
a portfolio consisting of a long position in underlying asset and a short position in calls, the risk of the asset price
fluctuation is eliminated. This hedged portfolio is obtained by setting the number of shares equal to the
approximate change in the call price for a change in the share price. However, this mix of shares and calls is
subject to continuous revision. This process is called delta hedging.
The fair value of the option is a function of five variables:
market price of the asset
exercise price
time to expiry
volatility of price of underlying asset
interest rate
In this model, all the variables except (4) are contained in the contract between option buyer and option seller.
The model is based on the following assumptions:
The rate of return on a share is log normally distributed. (the logarithm of the share’s return will follow the
normal distribution).
The risk-free rate is constant during the life of the option and is known.
The market is efficient and there are no transaction costs and taxes.
The option is a European option.
There are no restrictions or penalties for short selling.
The share price is continuous and random.
There is no dividend to be paid on the share during the life of the option.
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Formula
The Black-Scholes option pricing model
-rt
c = PaN(d1) – PeN(d2)e
Where,
c = Value of a call option
Pa = Current price / spot price of the underlying asset
Pe = Exercise price / strike price of the underlying asset
N(d) = Value of cumulative normal probability density function
e = Exponential constant (base of natural logarithm). The value is 2.7183.
r = continuously compounded risk-free rate of interest
t = Time to expiry (in years)
In = Natural logarithm
s = Standard deviation of the continuously compounded annual returns on the underlying
The starting point for solving a problem relating to the Black and Scholes model is to calculate the value of
d 1.
This involves calculating the natural logarithm of the base to the constant ‘e’. For this purpose, students
must use a calculator which has a natural logarithm function.
The standard deviation measures the volatility in the prices of the underlying. If the underlying asset is a
share, the standard deviation measures the volatility of the annual returns from the share.
The next step is to calculate the value of d2.
After the values of d1 and d2 have been calculated, the values for N(d1) and N(d2) should be determined.
These values can be obtained from the normal distribution tables.
The option price can be calculated by substituting the values of N(d1) and N(d2) in the formula.
Robert is interested in writing a six-month call option on Portizo Company’s share. Portizo’s share is currently
selling for Tshs2000. The strike price of the share is Tshs2000.The volatility (standard deviation) of the share
returns is estimated as 70%. Angelina would like the strike price to be Tshs2000. The risk-free rate is assumed
to be 9%. How much premium should Angelina charge for writing the call option?
We assume that the share is not a dividend-paying share. Let us first calculate d1 and d2 as follows:
Step 1: Calculate the values of d1 and d2.
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d2 can also be calculated as follows:
d2 =
2000
In
+ 0.09 − (0.70 )2 (0.5 )0.5
2000
0.70 0.5
d2= -0.15
Step 2: Calculate the values of N(d1) and N(d2) from the normal distribution table.
From the normal distribution table, we can obtain the values of N(d1) and N(d2) as follows:
When Z=0.34, probability=0.1331
Hence N (d1) =0.5+0.1331=0.6331
When Z=-0.15, probability=0.0596
Hence N (d2) =0.5-0.0596=0.4404
Step 3: Substitute the values of N(d1) and N(d2) in the option pricing formula.
Substituting the values of N(d1) and N(d2), we can obtain:
C = 2000 (0.6331) – 2000(0.4404)e
= 1266.2 – 841.96
= 424.24
-0.09(0.5)
= 1266.2 – 2000(0.4404) (0.9559)
Advantages
The primary advantages of the Black-Scholes model are its speed and accuracy. It enables a large number of
option prices to be calculated in a very short time.
Limitations
The Black-Scholes model suffers from the following limitations:
1. It cannot be used to accurately price American options as it only calculates the option price at one point in
time (i.e. at expiration). It does not consider the possibility of the early exercise of an American option. As all
exchange traded equity options have American-style exercise (i.e. they can be exercised at any time as
opposed to European options which can only be exercised at expiration) this is a significant limitation.
2. The model assumes that the returns on the underlying asset follow a log normal distribution. However, the
actual distribution of returns on assets (particularly returns on shares) may be skewed.
3. The model assumes that the volatility of the underlying asset is known and remains constant throughout the
life of the option. However, in the case of a share market crash, volatility tends to rise sharply.
3.2 Binomial option pricing model
The binomial model of option pricing theory is based on the premise that only two prices of an option will
emerge at the expiry of the option. It describes the process of price movements where the asset value, in any
time period, can move to one of two possible prices with associated probabilities. The model is based on a
replicating portfolio that combines risk-free borrowing with the underlying asset to create the same cash flows as
the option.
The model is based on the following assumptions:
A portfolio of options and the underlying asset is set.
Arbitrage is not possible.
There are no uncertainties in the outcome of the above portfolio.
Option delta / Hedge ratio: the binomial model involves creation of a portfolio of a certain number of shares
and an option by buying (delta) shares and selling a call option. The delta is also known as the hedge ratio.
The hedge ratio ensures a hedged portfolio for an investor who holds certain number of shares and sells a
number of call options. A hedged portfolio is one where the gains and losses cancel out each other.
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A delta of 0.5 means that for every call option we sell, we have to buy 0.5 shares to minimise the exposure to
the movements in share prices.
The formula for determining the can be written as follows:
Option delta ( ) =
Difference in option values
Difference in share prices
The model calculates the price of the option in four steps:
Create a portfolio consisting of a share and an option.
Find the value of the portfolio on the expiry date.
Find the present value of the portfolio.
The price of the option is equal to the present value of the share minus the present value of the portfolio.
A share is currently selling for Tshs1200. There are two possible prices of the share after one year: Tshs1320 or
Tshs1050. Assume that the risk-free rate of return is 9% per annum. What is the value of a one-year call option
(European) with a strike price of Tshs1250?
Answer
Step 1: Calculation of option delta
Share price at expiration
Value of call option (Max S – X)
=
=
=
Tshs
1320
70
Tshs
1050
0
Difference in option values
Difference in share prices
70 - 0
1320 - 1050
70
270
= 0.26
Step 2: Calculation of expected value of portfolio at the expiry date
Value of the portfolio at the end of first year:
= Value of share – Value of call option
= Tshs1320 (0.26) – Tshs70
= Tshs273.2
Step 3: Calculation of present value of portfolio
-0.09 x 1
PV (Portfolio) = 273.2 x e
= Tshs249.7
Step 4: PV (Portfolio) = PV (share) – PV (call option)
249.7 = 1200 x 0.26 – c
c = 62.3
© GTG
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Advantage: The binomial model has an advantage over the Black-Scholes model in that it can be used to price
American options.
Limitation: The primary limitation of the binomial model is its relatively slow speed. It cannot be used for
calculating several options at one time.
3.3 Real option model
Options are more popularly associated with financial derivative instruments; however they can also be used to
evaluate capital investment decisions. These options are called real options.
A project embeds real options when managers have the opportunity but not the obligation to change the future
direction of the project in response to external or internal events:
changing the scale of the project
implementing it in incremental stages
abandoning the project
using the project as a platform for future growth opportunities.
A real option gives the management, the right, but not the obligation, to delay, expand, withdraw or redeploy
the resources within an investment project.
1. Features of real options
(a) These options are related to investment projects, joint ventures and licences and not to financial instruments.
(b) They are long-term in nature in the sense that they could extend for many years rather than months.
(c) Real options have a greater likelihood of being exercised compared to options on financial instruments
(d) Real options can be exercised by installing machinery, building a factory, expanding a plant, etc.
2. Types of options in investment analysis
The options are broadly divided into four categories:
(a) Option to delay a project
A firm may have exclusive rights to invest in a project for a defined period of time. During this period, the
present value of the cash inflows may change due to changes in either the cash flows or the discount rate. In
such cases, the NPV might also change. Therefore, an investment project may currently have a negative NPV,
but may still turn out to be a good investment if the firm waits for longer.
The right to invest in the project at a future date would effectively be a call option that may be worth paying for.
Metro Ltd is planning to invest in the expansion of its existing production facilities. The company has estimated
Tshs20,000 million as the initial investment for the expansion. The expansion is expected to generate Tshs5000
million after-tax cash inflows each year for the next five years. Assuming a discount rate of 10%, calculate the
NPV of the project. Also calculate the value of the option to delay the project assuming the risk-free rate is 7%
and the standard deviation of the project cash flows is 30%.
Answer
(i) NPV of the new project = (20,000) + 5,000 x 3.79
= (20,000) + 18,950
= Tshs38,950 million
(ii) Evaluation of option to delay
Value of underlying asset (Pa) = 18,950
= Tshs20,000
Strike price (Pe)
Time to expiry (t)
= 5 years
Standard deviation (s)
= 30%
Risk-free rate
= 7%
Continued on the next page
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Step 1: Calculate the values of d1 and d2.
In
d1 =
18950
20000
+ 0.07 + 0.5(0.3 )2 x 5
0.30 5
In (0.9475 ) + (0.07 + 0.045 ) x 5
0.67
d1 = 0.779
d1 =
d2 = 0.779 – 0.67
d2 = 0.109
Step 2: Calculate the values of N(d1) and N(d2) from the normal distribution table.
From the normal distribution table, we can obtain the values of N(d1) and N(d2) as follows:
N (d1) = 0.2794 + 0.5 = 0.7794
N (d2) = 0.0438 + 0.5 = 0.5438
Step 3: Substitute the values of N(d1) and N(d2) in the option pricing formula.
-0.07x5
Value of the call option = 18,950 x 0.7794 – 20,000 (0.5438)e
= 14,770 – 7,660
= Tshs7,110 million
Therefore, the value of the option to delay is Tshs7,110 million.
Since the value of option is positive, the project should be delayed
(b) Option to expand a project
The option to expand, means undertaking investments in projects today in order to accept projects or enter new
markets in the future. A project with a negative NPV may be accepted, because of the possibility of high positive
net present values on future projects.
The option to expand is more suitable for businesses which can achieve a higher rate of return on projects (e.g.
software companies) than for business with a more stable rate of return on projects (e.g. engineering
companies). Such an option can be valued as a call option since it would be worth money to the company.
TBK Ltd is planning to acquire a new plant. The plant would cost the company Tshs100billion. The NPV of the
project is negative. However, the management of the company feels that by carrying out the expansion, TBK
would acquire the option to expand its volumes at any time over the next three years. The cost of expansion
would be Tshs130billion. The present value of the cash flow after the expansion is expected to be
Tshs170billion.
Assuming the standard deviation of cash flows to be 40% and the three year risk-free rate to be 7%, calculate
the value of the option to expand.
Answer
Value of underlying asset = Tshs170b
Strike price
= Tshs130b
Standard deviation
= 40%
Time to expiry
= 3 years
Risk-free rate
= 7%
Continued on the next page
OptionValues:
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© GTG
Step 1: Calculate the value of d1 and d2.
d1 =
In (1.3076 ) + (0.45 )
0.6928
d1 = 1.03
d2 = 1.03 – 0.6928
d2 = 0.3372
Step 2: Calculate the values of N(d1) and N(d2) from the normal distribution table.
N (d1) = 0.3485 + 0.5 = 0.8485
N (d2) = 0.1293 + 0.5 = 0.6293
Step 3: Substitute the values of N(d1) and N(d2) in the option pricing formula.
c = 170 (0.8485) – 130 (0.6293) (2.7183)
-0.07
x3
1
c = 144.25 – 81.81 x
2.7183 0.21
c = 144.25 – 66.31
c = Tshs77.94 million
(c) Option to withdraw a project
Major capital investment decisions involve huge capital commitments and cannot be withdrawn immediately,
once the management has started executing the project. This is because the costs associated with the
withdrawal of a project are usually very steep.
In such cases, the option to withdraw the project without incurring large costs assumes significant importance.
Whereas traditional capital budgeting analysis assumes that a project will operate in each year of its lifetime, the
firm may have the option to stop a project during its lifetime. This option is known as the option to withdraw.
Withdrawal options, which are the right to sell the cash flows over the remainder of the project's life for some
salvage value, are like American put options.
When the present value of the remaining cash flows falls below the value of the remaining project, the asset
may be sold. These options are particularly important for large, capital intensive projects such as nuclear plants,
airlines and railways. They are also important for projects involving new products where their acceptance in the
market is uncertain. The option to withdraw would effectively be a put option.
Let us assume that the remaining value of a project until the end of its life is R and the cost associated with
withdrawal of the project is W.
Decision criteria:
If R > W Continue with the project
If R < W Withdraw / abandon the project
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The value of a put option can be ascertained using the following formula:
-rt
p = PeN(-d2)e
- PaN(-d1)
Where,
p = Value of a put option
Pa = Present value of expected free cash flows
Pe = Present value of cash outflows / fixed costs
N (d) = Value of cumulative normal probability density function
e = Exponential constant (base of natural logarithm). The value is 2.7183
r = Yield of a risk-free security
t = Duration for which the project is valid (in years)
In = Natural logarithm
s = Uncertainty of the expected cash flows
Note: the difference between the Black-Scholes formula used for valuing call option and put option is that in
case of call option, the present value of the strike price is deducted from the present value of the spot price
whereas reverse is the case while valuing put options.
Milestone Ltd is considering opening a specialist clinic which requires an initial investment of Tshs1000m. The
present value of cash flows from the project is expected to be Tshs4200m. The company has the option to
withdraw the project at any time during the next five years. If the company withdraws the project, it could realise
Tshs2000m. Assuming the standard deviation of the cash flows as 30% and the risk-free rate as 9%, value the
option to withdraw the project within five years.
Answer
Value of underlying asset = Tshs4200m
Strike price
= Tshs2000m
(Realisable value)
Standard deviation
= 30% Time to
expiry
= 5 years Risk-free rate
= 9%
The option to withdraw is similar to a put option
Step 1: Calculate the values of d1 and d2.
d1 =
0.74 + 0.675
0.6708
d1 = 2.11
d2 = 2.11 – 0.6708 d2 = 1.44
Continued on the next page
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© GTG
Step 2: Calculate the values of N(d1) and N(d2) from the normal distribution table.
N (-d1) = 0.4826 + 0.5 = 0.9826
N (-d2) = 0.4251 + 0.5 = 0.9251
Step 3: Substitute the values of N(d1) and N(d2) in the option pricing formula.
-0.09 x 5
p = 2,000 x 0.9251 x 2.7183
– 4,200 x 0.9826
p = 2,000 x 0.9251 x 0.6376 – 4,126.9
p = 1,179.68 – 4,126.9
p = -Tshs2,947.21 m
NPV without withdrawal option (Tshs4,200 m – Tshs1,000 m) = Tshs3,200 m
Value of withdrawal option
= (Tshs2,947.21) m NPV to withdraw
= Tshs252.79 m
(d) Option to redeploy a project
An option to redeploy a project exists when the managers can redeploy the assets being used in a project to
alternative projects. This gives them the opportunity to continue with the project on a profitable basis rather than
withdraw the project, and is particularly useful if withdrawing the project would yield negative cash flows.
For the purposes of calculating the redeployment option, the NPV of the alternative use needs to be ascertained.
In the case of multiple alternatives, the incremental NPV of the next best alternative should be considered.
The option to redeploy is similar to a call option on the cash flows that would be generated through the
alternative us of assets.
A company may choose to build a plant whose physical life exceeds its expected duration of use thereby
providing the firm with the option of producing more by extending the life of the project.
Meaning of real option
3. Limitations in use of options for project appraisal
While it is quite clear that the option to delay is embedded in many projects, there are several problems
associated with the use of option pricing models to value options.
(a) The underlying asset in a real option is a project that is not traded on any exchange, making it difficult to
estimate its value and volatility. The value can be estimated from the expected cash flows and the discount
rate for the project, albeit with error. The volatility is more difficult to estimate since it is to be measured over
a period of time.
(b) There may be no specific period for which the firm has rights to the project. Often the firm’s rights may be
less clearly defined, both in terms of exclusivity and time. For instance, a firm may have significant
advantages over its competitors, which may, in turn, provide it with the virtually exclusive rights to a project
for a period of time.
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The rights are not legal restrictions however and could erode faster than expected. In such cases, the expected
life of the project itself is only an estimate and therefore uncertain.
Global works Ltd is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the manufacture of antibiotics. The company is
considering a ten-year patent to manufacture a drug called Cra which would be used for cardiac treatment. The
product is technically viable but highly expensive to manufacture, and its immediate potential market will be
relatively small.
A cash flow analysis of the project suggested that the present value of the cash inflows from the project, if
adopted now, would be Tshs300 billion, while the cost of the project would be Tshs400 billion. The technology is
evolving rapidly, and a simulation of alternative scenarios yields a wide range of present values, with an
annualised standard deviation of 40%. The ten-year yield on government securities is 8%.
Required:
Estimate the value of the option to invest in the project.
4. Discuss the factor that influences the price / value of option contracts.
[Learning Outcome d]
There are numerous factors that influence the value of an option contract. The buyer and seller of an option
decide the option price which is influenced by the following factors:
1. Value of the underlying: the value of a call option increases with an increase in the actual price of the
underlying assets. This is because the option buyer can purchase the underlying assets from the option
seller at the strike price and sell them immediately at a higher price. With a put option, the case is exactly
the opposite, as the value of a put option increases with a reduction in the actual price of the underlying
assets since the put option buyer can sell the underlying assets to the put option seller at the strike price
and buy the underlying assets at the actual price.
2. Strike price: the value of a call option decreases as the strike price increases since as the strike price
increases, the probability of a call option being exercised decreases. The value of a put option increases as
the strike price increases as the probability of the put option being exercised increases.
3. Time to expiration: The chances of a fluctuation in the price of the underlying, is greater when there is a
longer time to expiry. This may give rise to an advantage to one of the parties to the contract. The longer the
time to expiry, the higher the possibility of the option being “in the-money”. This is because the option has
more time to move to an “in-the-money” position.
4. Volatility: volatility is the tendency of the underlying security’s market price to fluctuate either upwards or
downwards. It reflects the magnitude of the change of price. It does not imply a bias toward price movement
in one direction or the other. The higher the volatility of the underlying asset, the higher the premium
because there is a greater possibility that the option will move to an “in-the-money” position. Generally, as
the volatility of an underlying asset increases, the premiums of both call and put options on that asset
increase, and vice versa.
5. Risk-free rate: an increase in the risk free rate will increase the value of a call option because the money
saved by purchasing the call option rather than the underlying security is increased. The opposite is true for
the value of a put option (i.e. an increase in the risk free rate will decrease the value of a put option).
6. Dividend expectations: the prices of options are impacted if there are dividend declared on the underlying
stock or if there are dividend expectations. This is because the underlying price would change after payment
of dividend. However the call option is not eligible for dividend and this would be reflected in the price of the
call option.
How does the time to expiry affect the price of an option?
Option
values:
261
Option
Values:
549
© GTG
5. Describe the relationship between call and put prices (call-put parity) and its implications.
[Learning Outcome e]
5.1 The put-call parity
The put-call parity is an important principle in options pricing. This was first presented by Hans Stoll in 1969. It
explains the relationship that exists between the prices of European put and call options where both have the
same underlying asset, exercise price and expiry date. It does not apply to American options because they can
be exercised at any time.
Let’s consider:
Portfolio 1: call option and risk-free bonds with face value of X (cash equivalent of present value of strike
price) requiring investment of C + PV(X)
Portfolio 2: consisting of underlying asset and a European Put option with same exercise price, requiring
an investment of S + P.
If S is greater than X, the call is in the money and the put is worthless. On the other hand, is S is less than X or
equal to X, the put is in the money while the call expires worthless. Both the above portfolios have the same
expiration value. Therefore, since the expiration value is the same the present value of both is also the same.
This is called put-call parity.
The put call parity equation parity equation is
C + PV(X) = S + P
PV(X) =
C+
X
(1+ r ) t
X
= S+P ,
(1+ r) t
Where,
C = market value of the call
P= market value of the put
S = market value of underlying asset
X = Strike price
r = annual interest rate
t = time in years
This is based on principle of arbitrage. Certain options combinations would create opportunities for arbitrageurs
to earn profits. This would continue until the put-call parity is reached. Therefore, put call parity shows the
relationship between put and call premium, market price of underlying security, exercise price, risk free rate and
time to expiration.
Suppose that the stock price is Tshs500, the strike price is Tshs600 and the risk-free interest rate equals 5%
per annum. The 6-month European put option price is Tshs8. What is the 6-month European call option price?
S0= Tshs500, K = Tshs600, r= 5%, t= 6months ( 0.5 years), e= 2.71828, P= Tshs8
Kƌ
The price of the 6-month European call option is Tshs77.19. This price is dependent on the price of the
European put option, which is Tshs8
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5.2 Implications of the call-put parity
1. A call provides a geared position identical to investing in the stock. When one invests in a stock directly, the
gain from ownership equals Tshs1for every increase of Tshs1 in the stock price. This is the same as
purchasing a call when the stock price goes beyond the exercise price.
As the call price forms only a small part of the stock price, the percentage gain with the call investment will
be higher than the percentage return from the stock investment. If the stock price reduces, the investment
can lead to huge losses. However, a call option also provides a put option on the stock, because of which,
the loss is minimised to the amount of the call price paid.
2. If the interest rate is zero, the call-put parity is P= C- (St - Sx). Therefore, for a call option that is in-themoney, the call will always have a price higher than that of a put. This will also be true for positive interest
rates.
3. A call option will be bought when the stock price is expected to increase. If the market expects the price of a
stock to increase, there will be a higher demand for buying a call option (and also a low demand for a put
option), causing the price of the call option to increase and the put option to decrease. However, a put-call
parity is not dependent on market expectations. Market expectations cause a change in the price of the
underlying stock on the basis of which, the call and put prices will be determined.
4. A violation of put-call parity will lead to an arbitrage opportunity.
The European call option on a foreign currency asset, X that expires in one year has strike price 32 and an
option price 4. The forward price of the asset X in one year is 36. The annual continuously compounded interest
rate is 0.08.
Required:
Determine the price of the put option on the asset with a strike price of 32.
6. Develop hedging strategies based on options.
[Learning Outcome f]
We have covered the features of the options and studied the pricing models. Now let us discuss various
hedging strategies that can be applied with options. These hedging strategies can be applied to shares trading,
managing currency risk and interest rate risk. The aim of taking option positions is to hedge against variations in
the price of the asset rather than actually buy or sell the asset as also to profit from the position.
The following are the different types of hedging strategies based on options:
1. Combination of an option and holding the underlying security
(a) Covered call: Under this hedging strategy, a portfolio of a long security and a short call .i.e. selling a call
option) is built. In this case, if the price of the security falls, the loss on the asset would be set off by the
funds received from the option premium. This might not be a complete set off, however can be reduced to a
major extent.
Mr. Robin purchased shares of company X Ltd at Tshs1000. He also strikes a short call on the same with a
premium of Tshs100 and an exercise price of Tshs1000.
If the share price rises, the option will be exercised and the profit will be the option premium. If the share price
falls, the option not being exercised, the investor will utilize the option premium to offset the loss on the share
price decline.
© GTG
OptionValues:
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(b) Covered put: Under this strategy, a portfolio of a long security and a long put .i.e. purchasing a put option is
built. In case the share price declines the investor can exercise the option and sell the shares at the
exercise price. Therefore a floor is set for the loss; also profit from rising share price is possible.
Continuing the above example, if Mr. Robin along with the purchase of shares, strikes a long put, the effect
would be
(i) If the share price declines, he can exercise the option and sell the shares, the loss would be only the option
premium.
(ii) If the share price increases, the option would not be exercised, he would gain by the rise in the share price
net of the option premium.
2. Positions in the options of the same type (spread)
(a) Bull call spread: buying a call option on an asset with a certain strike price and selling a call option with
higher strike price, having same expiration date. This position is taken when the market is around the lower
exercise price. If the price falls below the lower exercise price neither options would be exercised. If the
price lies between the higher strike price and the lower strike price the long call would be exercised, the
asset acquired and profit derived (net of option premium)
(b) Bear call spread: this strategy is adopted when investors expect a fall in the market prices. Under this
strategy a put option is purchased at a certain strike price and a sale of put option at lower strike price. In
case the market price is lower than the upper strike price, profit is earned as the difference between the
strike prices net of option premium. The maximum loss is the net premium paid.
(c) Box spreads: combination of bull call spread, and bear put spread with the same strike prices the total profit
is the difference between the strike prices.
3. Combination of options
(a) Straddle: Under long straddle strategy a position of both long call and long put option is built, both of which
with the same exercise price and the same date of expiry. In case of straddle, the trader option purchaser
would benefit if the price moves in either direction and would incur a loss from the combination if the market
price moves close to the exercise price. This strategy is suitable in case of volatile markets where a sharp
increase or decrease in the asset price is expected, however not aware of the direction of the swing.
Ms. Benedicta purchased shares of XYZ Ltd for Tshs1500 at the DSE. The markets are expected to be volatile
for the next 3 months. Therefore, Benedicta creates a straddle by buying a put option and call options with strike
price of Tshs1500 with expiration date in 3 months.
If the share price goes up or down she would profit from the straddle. The cost would be the premium on the two
options. The payoff would be nil if the stock price is Tshs1500.
The reverse is true in case of short straddle. This is adopted when market is flat and no major price movement
is expected. In case the investor would sell a call option and a put option for the same strike price and expiration
date.
(b) Strangle: A long strangle strategy involves buying a call option with a higher exercise price and
simultaneously buying a put option with a lower strike price. This strategy is suitable when major swings are
expected in the share price. A big move in the price is required to make it profitable. The strangle creator
benefits when the price moves above the call option strike price or below the put option strike price. The
gain is unlimited while the loss is limited to the premium paid.
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In the above example, if Benedicta wants to gain from the price swing but is not willing to purchase the
expensive straddle, she can buy a strangle .i.e. buy a two-month 1550 call for Tshs25 and a 2 month 1450 put
for Tshs23.
In case if the share price moves to:
Tshs1600 – payoff = (Tshs1600-Tshs1550) –(25+23) = 50-48 = Tshs2
Tshs1390 – payoff = (Tshs1450-Tshs1390) –(25+23) = 60-48 = Tshs12
A short strangle offers higher protection than a short straddle although profit potential is lower in the case of the
former.
(c) Stripes and Straps: A strip is a strategy using a long call option and two put options at the same strike
price with the same expiration date. This strategy is adopted when a major movement in underlying price is
expected and probability of decrease is higher. A strap on the other hand is a strategy with two long calls
and one put call at a same strike price and expiration date. This strategy is adopted when the probability of
decrease is higher.
Differentiate between short straddle and short strangle as hedging strategies.
Answers to Test Yourself
Answer to TY 1
Intrinsic Value and Time Value (Call options for the Tshs1000 stock)
Premium (option price)
Category
Tshs900
Tshs170
In the money
Intrinsic value
Tshs100
(Tshs1000 - Tshs900)
Tshs1000
Tshs100
At the money
0
Tshs1100
Tshs60
Out of the
money
0
Answer to TY 2
(a) American Call
Ac 0 ≥ Max 0,S 0 −
X
(1 + r ) t
Minimum: Max (0,96-90/(1.06)^0.5) = 8.58
Maximum: Ct<=St = 96
European Call
Ec 0 ≥ Max 0, S 0 −
X
(1 + r ) t
Minimum = Max (0,96-90/(1.06)^0.5) = 8.58
Maximum: Ct<=St = 96
(b) American Put
Minimum: Max (0,X-S) = Max (0,95-90) = 5
Maximum: X = 95
Time Value
Tshs70
(Tshs170-Tshs100)
Tshs100
(Tshs100-Tshs0)
Tshs60
(Tshs60-Tshs0)
OptionValues:
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European Put
Minimum=Max (0,95/(1.06)^0.5 – 90) = 2.27
Maximum: = 95/(1.06)^0.5 = 92.27
Answer to TY 3
Pa = PV of cash inflow on project = Tshs300billion
Pe = Cost of investing in the project = Tshs400 billion
t = 10 years
r = 8%
s = 0.4
d1 =
In (0.75 ) + 1.6
1.264
d1 = 1.04
d2 = 1.04 – 1.26
d2 = (0.22)
N(d1) = 0.3508 + 0.5 = 0.8508
N(d2) = 0.5-0.0871 = 0.4129
-0.08 x 10
c = 300 x 0.8508 + 400 (0.4129) 2.7183
c = 255.24 + 74.21
c = 329.45
Value of call (Product patent) = Tshs329.45billion
Answer to TY 4
Time to expiry
Greater the time to expiry, greater is the uncertainty and therefore greater are the chances of a fluctuation in the
price of the underlying to the advantage of one of the parties to the contract. Hence greater the time, higher
would be the time value of the premium. The option’s price is directly related to the time remaining till the
expiration of the option contract. The buyer of an option stands to gain if the option contract finishes in-themoney and the probability is greater if there is more time to expiry. As the time to expiration of the option
decreases, the value of the option would also reduce till it becomes zero at the expiration of the option.
As all options exhibit time decay and are wasting assets, as time passes, option contracts lose value. If the
investor buys an option that is three months away from expiration and holds it until there are only few days until
expiration, there will be a significant premium loss due to time depreciation assuming the price of the underlying
is more or less constant.
Answer to TY 5
-rT
C(K, t) - P(K, t) = e (S0,t - K)
We have C(32, 1) = 4, S0,t = 36 and K = 32.
-0.08
Thus, 4 - P(K, t) = e (36 - 32)
-0.08
4 - e (4) = P(K, t) = 0.3075
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Planning
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Answer to TY 6
Particulars
Strategy
Suitable when
Profit potential
Protection
Breakeven point
Short straddle
Short call and short put option with the same
strike price
Markets are stagnant with no major asset
movements expected
Higher than short strangle
Lower than short strangle
Strike price + premium received
Strike price – premium received
Short strangle
Short call with higher strike price and
short put option with lower strike price
When shares are expected to be with a
price range and option premiums are
high
Lower than short straddle
Higher than short straddle
Higher strike price + premium received
Lower strike price - premium received
Quick Quiz
1. Option price = intrinsic value +
(Fill in the blanks)
2. The lower boundary conditions for both the American and European call options are identical. ( True/False)
3. How does the rate of interest affect the price of an option?
4. For a call option that is in-the-money, the call will always have a price lower than that of a put (True/False)
5. Bear call strategy involves purchasing a
. (Fill in the blanks)
option at a certain strike price and sale of put option at
Answers to Quick Quiz
1. time value
2. True
3. The cost of carry would depend upon the risk-free rate of interest in the market. The higher the interest rate,
the higher the call option price and lower the put option price. The lower the interest rate, the lower the call
option price and higher the put option price.
4. False. For a call option that is in-the-money, the call will always have a price higher than that of a put
5. Put , lower strike price
Self Examination Questions
Question 1
Bebeto has bought a three-month call option on Prospect Ltd’s share with a strike price of Tshs5000 at a
premium of Tsh300. He has also bought a put option on the same share with a strike price of Tshs4000 at a
premium of Tshs150. Prospect’s shares are currently selling for Tshs4500 per share.
Required:
Calculate the net pay-off.
Question 2
While reviewing the investment portfolio of New Horizon Ltd, the senior financial advisor has observed that
about 20% of the portfolio is represented by a holding of 5,550,000 ordinary shares of Have More Ltd. He has
expressed his concern about the effect on the portfolio value if the price of Have More Ltd’s shares falls. Hence
he has advised the senior management to reduce their holding of the shares.
Their investment bank has suggested that the risk of Have More’s shares falling by more than 5% from their
current value could be protected against by buying an over-the-counter option. The investment bank has offered
to sell an appropriate six-month put option to New Horizon Ltd for Tshs250 million.
OptionValues:
values:555
267
Option
© GTG
Other information is as follows:
The spot price of Have More’s share is Tshs3600.
The annual variance of in the previous year was 169%.
The interest rate on government bonds is 4% per annum.
No dividend is expected to be paid by Have More over the next 6 months.
Required:
Assess whether or not the price at which the investment bank is willing to sell the option is a fair price.
Question 3
A portfolio manager proposes to write certain OTC call and put options. What are the parameters on which he
should deliberate before fixing the option price?
Question 4
Describe and illustrate any three hedging strategies that a stock trader can adopt in a bullish to slightly bullish
market.
Answers to Self Examination Questions
Answer to SEQ 1
Table of net pay-offs:
Share price at expiration
(i) Value of call option
Max (S – X), 0
(ii) Value of put option
Max (X – S), 0
Less: Premium paid (300 + 150)
Net pay-off gain (loss)
Tshs
3000
Tshs
5000
Tshs
5500
-
-
500
1000
-
-
(450)
550
(450)
(450)
(450)
50
Answer to SEQ 2
The investment bank is offering to sell a put option on Have More’s shares at a price of Tshs3420 (3600 – (5% x
3600)).
We can assess whether or not the option price is a fair price by using the Black-Scholes model.
Spot price (Pa) = Tshs3600
Strike price (Pe) = Tshs3420
Risk-free rate (r) = 0.04
Standard deviation (s) = √169 = 13%
Time to expiry (t) = 0.5 years
Using the Black-Scholes model, the value of a call option can be estimated as follows:
Step 1: Calculate the values of d1 and d2.
d1 =
3600
In
+ 0.04 + (0.13 )2 (0.5 )
3420
0.13 0.5
0.5
=0.8218
d2 = 0.8218 – 0.0919 = 0.7299
Step 2: Calculate the values of N(d1) and N(d2) from the normal distribution table.
N (d1) = 0.5 + 0.2944 = 0.7944
N (d2) = 0.5 + 0.2673 = 0.7673
268
556 :Financial
FinancialEngineering
Engineeringand
AndPlanning
Planning
© GTG
Step 3: Substitute the values of N(d1) and N(d2) in the option pricing formula.
Call price = 3600 (0.7944) - 3420 (0.7673) x 2.7183
-(0.04)(0.5)
= 2859.84– 2570 = 289.64 cents
The value of a put option on a share may be estimated using the put call parity theorem,
p = c - Pa + Pe e -rt
The option strike price is 3420, and the call option price has been estimated to be 289.64 cents.
–(0.04) (0.5)
Therefore p = 290 – 3600 + 3420e
Therefore p = 40
New Horizon’s holding of 5,550,000 shares multiplied by the put option price gives a fair option price according
to the Black-Scholes model of Tshs222 million.
Therefore, it can be inferred that the investment bank is charging Tshs28 m more than the theoretical fair value
of the put option (Tshs250 m – Tshs222 m).
Answer to SEQ 3
There are numerous parameters that influence the price of the option
(a) Value of the underlying: This has an important bearing on the price of the option. With an increase in the
actual price of the underlying assets, the value of a call option increases. With a put option, the case is
exactly the opposite, as the value of a put option increases with a reduction in the actual price of the
underlying assets since the put option buyer can sell the underlying assets to the put option seller at the
strike price and buy the underlying assets at the actual price.
(b) Strike price: the value of a call option decreases as the strike price increases since as the strike price
increases, the probability of a call option being exercised decreases. The value of a put option increases as
the strike price increases as the probability of the put option being exercised increases.
(c) Time to expiration: The longer the time to expiry, the higher the possibility of the option being “in themoney”. This is because the option has more time to move to an “in-the-money” position.
(d) Volatility: The higher the volatility of the underlying asset, the higher the premium because there is a
greater possibility that the option will move to an “in-the-money” position. Generally, as the volatility of an
underlying asset increases, the premiums of both call and put options on that asset increase, and vice
versa.
(e) Risk-free rate: an increase in the risk-free rate will increase the value of a call option because the money
saved by purchasing the call option rather than the underlying security is increased. The opposite is true for
the value of a put option (i.e. an increase in the risk-free rate will decrease the value of a put option).
(f) Dividend expectations :
The underlying price would change after payment of dividend. However, the call option is not eligible for
dividend and this would be reflected in the price of the call option.
Answer to SEQ 4
In a bull market the price of the underlying security is expected to rise. Therefore, a trader can adopt the
following strategies to earn a profit while protecting the downside risk
(a) Long call: by buying a call option the trader can crystallise the cost of the stock during the period of the
option. If the share price rises as expected by the trader, he can book profits and close the call option.
Alternatively, if he expects the increase to continue, he can maintain the long position. However, if the share
price does not increase, he should close out his position.
(b) Short put: this strategy can be adopted in case where the share price is expected to increase. The trader
can sell a put option at the current market price and earn through the price differential and premium.
(c) Bull call spread: buying a call option on an asset with a certain strike price and selling a call option with
higher strike price, having same expiration date. This position is taken when the market is around the lower
exercise price. If the price falls below the lower exercise price neither options would be exercised. If the
price lies between the higher strike price and the lower strike price the long call would be exercised, the
asset acquired and profit derived (net of option premium).
© GTG
OptionValues:
values:557
269
Option
The above three strategies are illustrated below:
Consider an investor Mr. Glen who holds shares of Golden Match Ltd listed on the DSE with share price of
Tshs2000. He expects the share price to rise over the next three months. He can adopt one of the following
strategies depending on his risk appetite, time horizon and market view.
(a) Write a three-month call option at Tshs2000. If the share price rises to Tshs2300 his profit would be the
Tshs300 (Tshs2300 – Tshs2000) minus call premium. He may decide to stay long if he expects the price to
rise further.
(b) Sell a put option at-the-money. If the premium on the put option is Tshs25. If the stock price is above
Tshs2000, the option will not be exercised, and he will earn the option premium. Alternatively, if the price is
below Tshs2000, the option will be exercised. His purchase cost will be Tshs1975 (Tshs2000 – Tshs25).
(c) .Buy a call option at Tshs2000 and sell a call option at say Tshs2300. If stock price is between Tshs2000
and Tshs2300, the payoff is the market price minus Tshs2000. The net premium paid is the cost of the
strategy. If the share price is above Tshs2300 the profit is Tshs300 minus net premium paid.
270 Financial Engineering and Planning
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SECTION D
Blockchain technology: 271
FINANCIAL ENGINEERING AND
PLANNING
STUDY GUIDE D4: Blockchain
FINANCIAL ENGINEERING AND PLANNING D4
technology
STUDY GUIDE D4: BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY
558 : Financial Engineering And Planning
© GTG
……Get Through intro…
In Luca Pacioli’s ‘The Collected Knowledge of Arithmetic, Geometry, Proportion and Proportionality’, published in
1494, he outlined the basics of accounting - the double entry accounting system, debits and credits, and the trial
balance. Since Pachouli, little has changed. Technology has evolved from paper to digital ledgers and automation
has advanced, enabling accountants to get the job done faster, reduce the margin of error, and find and correct
mistakes more easily, but otherwise it is fundamentally the same.
Now, however, we have blockchain, a technology with the potential to revolutionize accounting. As buzzwords go,
it’s up there with the most hyped, and although it has been touted as the next big thing in a wide range of
industries, few have any real idea of exactly what it is.
Organizations and governments worldwide are now exploring how blockchain can provide an alternative to their
current operational infrastructures for TRUST.
………….Learning Outcomes….
• Define Blockchain.
• Define Cryptocurrency.
• Differentiate Blockchain, Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency.
1. Define Blockchain
Before defining Blockchain let us first remind ourselves about a ledger.
(Learning Outcome a)
Wikipedia defines a ledger is the principal book or computer file for recording and totaling economic transactions
measured in terms of a monetary unit of account by account type, with debits and credits in separate columns and
a beginning monetary balance and ending monetary balance for each account.
A ledger is a record of ownership and value of a transaction. It keeps track of transfers too.
Assets recorded in a ledger can be tangible i.e. motor vehicles, houses or Intangible i.e. money, stock certificates.
1.1 Centralized ledger
A centralized ledger is the traditional Ledger where we have a trusted central record keeper. It is the foundation of
our accounting system which has been present since ages. It used various medium like, wooden tally sticks,
papyrus & paper, clay which were present much before this computer revolution became a mainstream. Once
computers became normalized in the 1980s and ’90s, paper records were computerized, often by manual data
entry.
Today Progress in technology of connected computers and cryptography, has given rise to block chain
phenomenon which is re-defining the whole record keeping mechanism for the better. Blockchain is changing the
way transactions ownership and value are recorded and shared by a community.
Every system that you use is centralized
 Google.
 Yahoo.
 Your bank account transactions.
 Asset registration in an organization.
 The General Ledger underlying your company’s financial statements.
 Title deeds records at the Ministry of land.
 The guest reservations at a hotel.
 Citizenship records at NIDA.
 Academic Certificates.
 Medical records etc.
We trust the central record-keepers. However, they represent a Single Point of Failure such as:
computers became normalized in the 1980s and ’90s, paper records were computerized, often by manual data
entry.
Today Progress in technology of connected computers and cryptography, has given rise to block chain
which is re-defining
the whole record keeping mechanism for the better. Blockchain is changing the
272phenomenon
Financial Engineering
and Planning
way transactions ownership and value are recorded and shared by a community.
Every system that you use is centralized
 Google.
 Yahoo.
 Your bank account transactions.
 Asset registration in an organization.
 The General Ledger underlying your company’s financial statements.
 Title deeds records at the Ministry of land.
 The guest reservations at a hotel.
 Citizenship records at NIDA.
 Academic Certificates.
 Medical records etc.
We trust the central record-keepers. However, they represent a Single Point of Failure such as:

Disaster.

Duplicate entries.

Errors and omission.
Option Values: 559
© GTG Manipulation.
© GTG Hacking.
Lack of transparency
Option Values: 559

Data
corruption
Hacking.

Shut
etc.
Data down
corruption

Shut down etc.
…………………………………….. Example……………………………………………………………..
An
accountant may decide not to record
assets acquired during the year in the asset register as a result we have
……………………………………..
Example……………………………………………………………..
undervalued
assets
the statement
of financial
the end
the accounting
An accountant
may in
decide
not to record
assets position
acquiredatduring
theofyear
in the assetperiod.
register as a result we have
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
undervalued assets in the statement of financial position at the end of the accounting period.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………….. Example……………………………………………………………..
Writing
off trade receivables fraudulently
from the books of accounts after a promise of being paid a certain
……………………………………..
Example……………………………………………………………..
amount
of
money
by
the
debtor.
Writing off trade receivables fraudulently from the books of accounts after a promise of being paid a certain
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
amount of money by the debtor.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Causes of discrepancies.
Causes of discrepancies.
1. Lack of transparency.
2. Manual controls, processes and systems.
1. Lack of transparency.
3. Lack of consensus.
2. Manual controls, processes and systems.
4. Corruption and Fraud.
3. Lack of consensus.
5. Lack of knowledge.
4. Corruption and Fraud.
6. Weakness in security.
5. Lack of knowledge.
6. Weakness in security.
N: B we trust System administrators however they can change anything, any time without our knowledge.
N: B we trust
System
Case
studyadministrators however they can change anything, any time without our knowledge.
In 2015, Yahoo experienced one of the biggest hacks of all time. A group of hackers were able to gain access to
Case
study
their centralized
servers,
allowing them to view private emails within millions of accounts.
In
2015,
Yahoo
experienced
the biggest
hacks
of all time. A
group
of hackers
to gain servers.
access to
The reason they were able toone
gainofaccess
to all of
this information
was
because
Yahoowere
usesable
centralized
If
their
centralized
servers,
allowing
them
to
view
private
emails
within
millions
of
accounts.
this central point of failure is hacked, then the entire network is at risk.
The
reason they were able to gain access to all of this information was because Yahoo uses centralized servers. If
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
this
central
point
of failure
hacked, thensystem.
the entire network is at risk.
Three
main
issues
with is
a centralized
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Three main issues with a centralized system.
1. You have to trust that the centralized organizations are going to keep your data safe.
2.
havetofull
control
the systemorganizations
and your data.
1. They
You have
trust
that over
the centralized
are going to keep your data safe.
3.
the have
main full
record
keeper
compromised,
at risk.
2. If
They
control
overisthe
system and data
your is
data.
Tip 3. If the main record keeper is compromised, data is at risk.
To what extent do you trust your systems?
Tip are the benefits of increased trust? to customers? to shareholders? , to stake holders?
What
To what extent do you trust your systems?
What
are the benefitsledger
of increased trust? to customers? to shareholders? , to stake holders?
1.2
Decentralized
1.2 Decentralized
Decentralized
ledgerledger
is the solution which overcome transaction discrepancies, keeps it absolutely secure to a
greater extent. It’s Consensus based transaction mechanism ensures that the shared ledgers are exact copies,
Decentralized
the solution
which overcome
transaction
keeps
absolutely
secure
to at
a
and
lowers theledger
risk ofis fraudulent
transactions,
because
tamperingdiscrepancies,
would have to
occurit across
many
places
exactly
same
greater the
extent.
It’stime.
Consensus based transaction mechanism ensures that the shared ledgers are exact copies,
and lowers the risk of fraudulent transactions, because tampering would have to occur across many places at
A
successful
Decentralized
ledger that allowed parties that did not know or trust each other to transact together
exactly
the same
time.
would have a wide range of advantages.
A successful Decentralized ledger that allowed parties that did not know or trust each other to transact together
Blockchain
a decentralized
would have Technology
a wide rangeis of
advantages. ledger.
1.2 Decentralized ledger
Decentralized ledger is the solution which overcome transaction discrepancies, keeps it absolutely secure to a
greater extent. It’s Consensus based transaction mechanism ensures that the shared ledgers are exact copies,
and lowers the risk of fraudulent transactions, because tampering would have to occur
across many
places273
at
Blockchain
technology:
exactly the same time.
560 : Financial Engineering And Planning
© GTG
A successful Decentralized ledger that allowed parties that did not know or trust each other to transact together
would have a wide range of advantages.
Blockchain Technology is a decentralized ledger.
560 : Financial Engineering And Planning
© GTG
Tip
Tip
Will
ledger
eliminate/reduce
of centralized
resulting
WillDecentralized
Decentralized ledger
eliminate/reduce
causes causes
of centralized
discrepancy discrepancy
resulting into more
trust? into more trust?
Blockchain Technology
Blockchain
Technology
Thefirst
first work
secured
chain of chain
blocks of
wasblocks
described
1991 by Stuart
Haber by
andStuart
W. Scott
The
workonona cryptographically
a cryptographically
secured
wasin described
in 1991
Haber and W. Scott
Stornetta. They wanted to implement a system where document timestamps could not be tampered with. In 1992,
Stornetta.
They
wanted
to
implement
a
system
where
document
timestamps
could
not
be
tampered
with. In 1992,
Bayer, Haber and Stornetta incorporated Merkle trees to the design, which improved its efficiency by allowing
Bayer,
andtoStornetta
severalHaber
transactions
be collectedincorporated
into one block. Merkle trees to the design, which improved its efficiency by allowing
several
to conceptualized
be collected by
intoa one
block.
The firsttransactions
blockchain was
person
(or group of people) known as Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008
Justfirst
after blockchain
the Global Financial
Crisis . Nakamoto
the design
in an important
wayknown
using a as
Hashcash-like
The
was conceptualized
byimproved
a person
(or group
of people)
Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008
method
to
add
blocks
to
the
chain
without
requiring
them
to
be
signed
by
a
trusted
party.
The
Just after the Global Financial Crisis . Nakamoto improved the design in an importantdesign
way was
using a Hashcash-like
implemented the following year by Nakamoto as a core component of the cryptocurrency bitcoin, where it serves
method
to
add
blocks
to
the
chain
without
requiring
them
to
be
signed
by
a
trusted
party. The design was
as the public ledger for all transactions on the network. The bitcoin design has inspired other applications.
implemented the following year by Nakamoto as a core component of the cryptocurrency bitcoin, where it serves
Generals’
(BGP)
asByzantine
the public
ledger Problem
for all transactions
on the network. The bitcoin design has inspired other applications.
This is the problem of communication in decentralized system which was an issue in the history of computer
science.
Byzantine
Generals’ Problem (BGP)
This
is
the
problem
communication
in by
decentralized
which and
wasLeslie
an issue
history of computer
The Byzantine
Generals’ofProblem,
first proposed
Marshall Pease,system
Robert Shostak
Lamportininthe
1982,
science.
provides a stylized description of this problem.
Satoshi
Nakamota
solved theProblem,
Byzantine Generals’
Problemby
(BGP)
however,
The
Byzantine
Generals’
first proposed
Marshall
Pease, Robert Shostak and Leslie Lamport in 1982,
Past attempts at solving the currency side of the problem include the following research: Chaum, D., 1984. Blind
provides
a
stylized
description
of
this
problem.
Signature System, in: Chaum, D. (Ed.), Advances in Cryptology. Springer US, pp. 153–153. Chaum, D., Fiat, A.,
Naor, M., 1990. Untraceable Electronic Cash, in: Proceedings of the 8th Annual International Cryptology
Conference
on Advances
in Cryptology,
CRYPTO
’88. Springer-Verlag,
London,
UK, UK, pp. 319–327. Okamoto,
Satoshi
Nakamota
solved
the Byzantine
Generals’
Problem (BGP)
however,
T., Ohta,
K., 1992.
Universal
Proceedings
the 11ththe
Annual
International
Cryptology
Past
attempts
at solving
theElectronic
currencyCash,
side in:
of the
problemofinclude
following
research:
Chaum, D., 1984. Blind
Conference on Advances in Cryptology, CRYPTO ’91. Springer-Verlag, London, UK, UK, pp. 324–337. Wei Dai’s
Signature
System, in: Chaum, D. (Ed.), Advances in Cryptology. Springer US, pp. 153–153. Chaum, D., Fiat, A.,
B-Money - Wei Dai, 1998, http://www.weidai.com/bmoney.txt
Naor, M., 1990. Untraceable Electronic Cash, in: Proceedings of the 8th Annual International Cryptology
Conference
on Advances in Cryptology, CRYPTO ’88. Springer-Verlag, London, UK, UK, pp. 319–327. Okamoto,
Tip
What
will happen
if the system
is at defect
as we don’t
have in:
a system
administrator?
T.,
Ohta,
K., 1992.
Universal
Electronic
Cash,
Proceedings
of the 11th Annual International Cryptology
Conference on Advances in Cryptology, CRYPTO ’91. Springer-Verlag, London, UK, UK, pp. 324–337. Wei Dai’s
……………………………………………………. Definition……………………………………………
B-Money
- Wei Dai, 1998, http://www.weidai.com/bmoney.txt
Wikipedia defines Blockchain as a growing list of records, called blocks, which are linked using cryptography. Each
block contains a cryptographic hash of the previous block, a timestamp, and transaction data (generally
Tip
represented as a Merkle tree root hash).
What
will happen if the system is at defect as we don’t have a system administrator?
Example
List of medical records in the blockchain
……………………………………………………. Definition……………………………………………
………………….case
study ……………………………………………
Wikipedia
defines Blockchain
as a growing list of records, called blocks, which are linked using cryptography. Each
block
contains
a cryptographic
of the
previous
block,
timestamp,
and to
transaction
data (generally
Diagram
below illustrates
a list of Bitcoinhash
transactions
in hash
form in the
blocksawhich
are again linked
form a
represented
as a Merkle tree root hash).
chain of blocks.
Example
List of medical records in the blockchain
………………….case study ……………………………………………
Diagram below illustrates a list of Bitcoin transactions in hash form in the blocks which are again linked to form a
chain of blocks.
274 Financial Engineering and Planning
© GTG
Option Values: 561
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
What makes it different from the previous methods of record keeping (Centralized) is the way these records are
being recorded and stored. Anybody can add information to the block but before it is permanently recorded it has
to be approved mathematically by the majority in the network (51% for the case of bitcoins).
The whole Blockchain is also available to all nodes of the Blockchain community.
Case study
Bitcoin trading volume in local bitcoin electronic wallet in different countries at the day this data was extracted.
Bitcoin Blockchain has nodes worldwide.
1.3 Types of blockchain
Currently, there are at least three types of blockchain networks.
 Public blockchains
 Private blockchains.
 Consortium blockchains.
Public blockchains
Users can participate in this type of blockchain without any restrictions.
Users are able to download the source code and run a node on their personal devices.
Users can view transaction history while still remaining anonymous, due to transparency.
Some of the largest, most known public blockchains are the bitcoin blockchain and the Ethereum
blockchain.
Example




You can sign up and transact any time without invitation to Bitcoin Blockchain wallet.
………..…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Private blockchains

A private blockchain is permissioned
Blockchain technology: 275
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

© GTG
These types of blockchains can be considered a middle-ground for companies that are interested in the
blockchain technology in general but are not comfortable with a level of control offered by public networks.
MONAX and Multichain serve as examples of private blockchain technology.
Consortium blockchains
A consortium blockchain is often said to be a combination of a private and public blockchains.
Instead of a single organization controlling it, a number of companies might each operate a node on such
a network.
 The administrators restrict users' reading rights as they see fit and only allows a limited set of trusted
nodes to execute a consensus protocol.
1.4 Blockchain enhancing the qualitative Characteristics of Accounting Information.


The demand for accounting information by investors, lenders, creditors, etc., creates fundamental qualitative
characteristics that are desirable in accounting information.
There are six qualitative characteristics of accounting information. Two of the six qualitative characteristics are
fundamental (must have), while the remaining four qualitative characteristics are enhancing (nice to have).
Fundamental (Primary) Qualitative Characteristics
Qualitative characteristics of accounting information that must be present for information to be useful in making
decisions:
1. Relevance
2. Reliability
Enhancing (Secondary) Qualitative Characteristics
Qualitative characteristics of accounting information that impact how useful the information is:
1. Verifiability
2. Timeliness
3. Understandability
4. Comparability
Relevance- Refers to how helpful the information is for financial decision-making processes. Accounting
information is relevant if it can provide helpful information about past events and help in predicting future events or
in taking action to deal with possible future events. The Immutability nature of the blockchain makes it possible for
accountants to have permanent accounting information about past events which will help in predicting future
events.
Example
With Blockchain it is possible to track the original owner of anything which was recorded on it regardless of the
period of time passed and the number of ownership transfers.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Reliability- For accounting information to be reliable, it must be complete, neutral and free from errors. The
immutable nature of blockchain makes it extremely difficult to perpetrate and manipulate records. In order to
modify a record, the same change would have to be made on all copies of the distributed ledger at the same time,
which is highly infeasible. Use of smart contracts will make many accounting functions automatic hence reducing
human error, making it complete and neutral. Other blockchain characteristics contributing to reliability are
transparency, consensus mechanism etc.
Verifiability-Blockchain makes verification easier due to transparency, immutability and approval mechanism
(majority consensus).
Timeliness- is how quickly information is available to users of accounting information. Blockchain is real time
processing making it fast and powerful. Using block chain, getting data into and out of the system can be done
more efficiently than the case now.
Example
The current systems are semi-automated and they don’t communicate with much
human things are done with emotions.
of human interaction. With
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……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..Comp
arability- is the degree to which accounting standards and policies are consistently applied from one period to
another. Blockchain will result into automation of processes and system which will lead to enhanced consistence of
application of the standards and policies throughout each accounting period thus enabling users to draw more
insightful conclusions about the trends and performance of the company over time.
The qualitative characteristics of accounting information are important because they make it easier for both
company management and investors to utilize a company’s financial statements and make well-informed
decisions.
NB
Just because something is called a Blockchain doesn’t mean that it is secure and has sufficient controls and
processes to be acceptable for business transactions. Companies proposing to join or use Blockchains should
ensure that they are designed and configured appropriately and processes are supported by their own internal
controls.
Example
Majority Consensus agreement is automated which will remove individual managers from approving fraudulent
transactions either knowingly or unknowingly
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
1.5 Advantages of blockchain







Increased efficiency.
Cost reduction.
Ease of verification.
Improved security.
Transparency.
Reduced fraud and corruption.
Reduced risks.
Case study.
Food and beverage giant PepsiCo has conducted a blockchain trial that brought a 28 percent boost in supply chain
efficiency.
Dubbed “Project Proton,” the trial set out to examine if blockchain could address “industry challenges”
in programmatic advertising.
PepsiCo’s project partner and media agency Mindshare announced the news 6 th May 2019, saying that it
assisted in the trial, which carried out a programmatic end-to-end supply chain reconciliation using Zilliqa’s
blockchain platform. The effort compared a control budget with one for the test to gauge the effectiveness of the
technology.
……………………………………………
1.6 Challenges
Lack of Regulations.
Lack of Knowledge.
Lack of experts
Initial Cost of adoption.
Lack of awareness by the responsible people.
Tip
Lack of Regulations.
Lack of Knowledge.
Lack of experts
Initial Cost of adoption.
Lack of awareness by the responsible people.
Blockchain technology: 277
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564 : Financial Engineering And Planning
Will board members of organisations agree or disagree to use blockchain technology in the near future?
Tip And Planning
564 : Financial Engineering
© GTG
………………………………….Example
…………………………………………………………….
Will board members of organisations agree
or disagree to use blockchain technology in the near future?
Now that we have seen the centralized and decentralized ledgers, let’s have an example demonstrating both
cases.
………………………………….Example …………………………………………………………….
Now that we have seen the centralized and decentralized ledgers, let’s have an example demonstrating both
The
simple diagrams below illustrate a centralized and decentralized accounting systems. Within a centralized
cases.
system, there are many documents that are exchanged for each transaction between companies. These
documents
Contracts,
purchase
invoices,
and payment accounting
receipts. If an
electronic
funds
transfer is
The simple include
diagrams
below illustrate
a orders,
centralized
and decentralized
systems.
Within
a centralized
initiated,
initiator’s
bank documents
will send thethat
funds
the recipient’s
recipient will
then confirm
the payment
system, the
there
are many
areto exchanged
forbank.
eachThe
transaction
between
companies.
These
with
the initiator.
The
decentralized
system
allows
the transaction
to take
place Ifonanthe
blockchain
network,
and
documents
include
Contracts,
purchase
orders,
invoices,
and payment
receipts.
electronic
funds
transfer
is
Consensus
mechanism
(e.g.
miners)
will
verify
and
process
the
transaction
if
all
conditions
are
satisfactorily
met.
initiated, the initiator’s bank will send the funds to the recipient’s bank. The recipient will then confirm the payment
with the initiator. The decentralized system allows the transaction to take place on the blockchain network, and
Consensus mechanism (e.g. miners) will verify and process the transaction if all conditions are satisfactorily met.
Centralized System
Centralized
System
Company
A’s
Payment
ĂŶŬ
Company A’s
Payment
ĂŶŬ
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Decentralized System
Company B’s
ĂŶŬ
Company B’s
ĂŶŬ
Decentralized System
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ůŽĐŬĐŚĂŝŶdƌĂŶƐĂĐƚŝŽŶ;ůĞĐƚƌŽŶŝĐ
ĂŐƌĞĞŵĞŶƚƐĂŶĚƉĂLJŵĞŶƚĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞͿ
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ŽŵƉĂŶLJ
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Figure 1
Figure 1
………………….Test Yourself 1………………………………………….
How is a blockchain ledger different from the traditional one?
………………….Test Yourself 1………………………………………….
How is a blockchain ledger different from the traditional one?
3. Define Cryptocurrency
3.
Define Cryptocurrency
2.1……………….Definition………………………………………………
Figure 2
Figure 2
(Learning Outcomes b)
(Learning Outcomes b)
Wikipedia
defines a cryptocurrency (or crypto currency)as a digital asset designed to work as a medium of
2.1……………….Definition………………………………………………
exchange that uses strong cryptography to secure financial transactions, control the creation of additional units,
and
verify defines
the transfer
of assets. Cryptocurrencies
use decentralized
as opposed
to centralized
digital
Wikipedia
a cryptocurrency
(or crypto currency)as
a digital control
asset designed
to work
as a medium
of
currency
bankingcryptography
systems.
exchangeand
thatcentral
uses strong
to secure financial transactions, control the creation of additional units,
and verify the transfer of assets. Cryptocurrencies use decentralized control as opposed to centralized digital
The
decentralized
each cryptocurrency works through distributed ledger technology, typically a
currency
and centralcontrol
bankingofsystems.
blockchain that serves as a public financial transaction ledger.
The decentralized control of each cryptocurrency works through distributed ledger technology, typically a
Bitcoin,
first
open-source
2009, is generally considered the first decentralized
blockchain
thatreleased
serves asas
a public
financial software
transactioninledger.
cryptocurrency. Since the release of bitcoin, over 2,000 altcoins (alternative variants of bitcoin or other
cryptocurrencies)
have been
created and that
numberincontinues
to grow.
Bitcoin, first released
as open-source
software
2009, is
generally considered the first decentralized
cryptocurrency. Since the release of bitcoin, over 2,000 altcoins (alternative variants of bitcoin or other
Being
a new assethave
classbeen
cryptocurrency
legal definition.
cryptocurrencies)
created andhas
thatno
number
continuesDifferent
to grow.countries define it differently. Some see is
as an asset, property, security, currency or commodity etc. In general, cryptocurrencies as medium of exchange
differ
other
currencies
in that they has
onlyno
exist
in definition.
virtual form.
Similarcountries
to fiat currency,
a cryptocurrency
is not
Being from
a new
asset
class cryptocurrency
legal
Different
define it differently.
Some see
is
backed
by
any
physical
commodity.
However,
unlike
fiat
currency,
it
is
not
backed
by
a
central
bank,
government
as an asset, property, security, currency or commodity etc. In general, cryptocurrencies as medium of exchange
or
other
entity,
is it considered
legal
tender
As to
such,
digital currency
transactions
differ
from
othernor
currencies
in that they
only
exist in
in many
virtual countries.
form. Similar
fiat currency,
a cryptocurrency
is are
not
undertaken
on a
decentralized,
peer-to-peer
The
peers init this
network
peoplebank,
that government
take part in
backed by any
physical
commodity.
However,network.
unlike fiat
currency,
is not
backedare
by the
a central
or other entity, nor is it considered legal tender in many countries. As such, digital currency transactions are
undertaken on a decentralized, peer-to-peer network. The peers in this network are the people that take part in
278 Financial Engineering and Planning
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Option Values: 565
digital currency transactions, and their computers make up the network. There is no middle party facilitating these
transactions
Today cryptocurrencies are in the same stage as the internet first was, and there may be little use for
cryptocurrencies until the financial world grabs a hold of it.
……………………………………..Example …………………………………………………..
To illustrate the idea behind blockchain’s transaction cycle, below is a comparison of the current exchange of
funds between two companies and the exchange of funds between two companies on a blockchain network.
A: Current Payment Cycle
ŽŵƉĂŶLJŝƐƐƵĞƐĂ
ŽŶƚƌĂĐƚƚŽŽŵƉĂŶLJ
ŽŵƉĂŶLJ
ĂĐĐĞƉƚƐƚŚĞ
ĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚĨƌŽŵ
ŽŵƉĂŶLJ͘
ŽŵƉĂŶLJĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞƐƚŚĞ
ǁŽƌŬĂƐŽƵƚůŝŶĞĚŝŶƚŚĞ
ĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚĂŶĚŝƐƐƵĞƐĂŶ
ŝŶǀŽŝĐĞƚŽĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ
ŽŵƉĂŶLJƌĞĐĞŝǀĞƐƚŚĞ
ŝŶǀŽŝĐĞĂŶĚƚŚĞŝŶǀŽŝĐĞŝƐ
ƌĞǀŝĞǁĞĚĂŶĚĞŶƚĞƌĞĚ
ŝŶƚŽƚŚĞŝƌZWƐLJƐƚĞŵĨŽƌ
ĂƉƉƌŽǀĂůĂŶĚƉĂLJŽƵƚ͘
ŽŵƉĂŶLJƐĞŶĚƐ
ĨƵŶĚƐƚŽ
ŽŵƉĂŶLJĂŶĚ
ĞŶƚĞƌƐƉĂLJŵĞŶƚ
ŝŶZWƐLJƐƚĞŵ͘
ŽŵƉĂŶLJƌĞĐĞŝǀĞƐĨƵŶĚƐ
ĂŶĚĞŶƚĞƌƐƉĂLJŵĞŶƚƌĞĐĞŝƉƚ
ŝŶZWƐLJƐƚĞŵ͘
B: Payment Cycle on Blockchain Network Using a Smart Contract
ŽŶƚƌĂĐƚŝŶŝƚŝĂƚŝŽŶĂŶĚĐĐĞƉƚĂŶĐĞ
ŽŵƉĂŶLJƐĞŶĚƐƐŵĂƌƚĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚĚĞƚĂŝůƐǀŝĂ
ůŽĐŬĐŚĂŝŶ͘
ŽŵƉĂŶLJƌĞǀŝĞǁƐĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚĚĞƚĂŝůƐĂŶĚĂĐĐĞƉƚƐ͘
^ĞƌǀŝĐĞƐŽŵƉůĞƚĞ
ŽŵƉĂŶLJŶŽƚŝĨŝĞƐŽŵƉĂŶLJǁŚĞŶƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ
ĂƌĞĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞ͘
ŽŵƉĂŶLJǀĞƌŝĨŝĞƐƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐĂƌĞĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞ͘
dŚŝƌĚƉĂƌƚLJǀĞƌŝĨŝĐĂƚŝŽŶ
ĂƚĂŵŝŶĞƌƐǀĞƌŝĨLJĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚŚĂƐďĞĞŶĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚĂŶĚĂůůŽǁƐĨŽƌƉĂLJŵĞŶƚƚŽďĞŝŶŝƚŝĂƚĞĚĨƌŽŵ
ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ͘
WĂLJŵĞŶƚŝŶŝƚŝĂƚŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĐĐĞƉƚĂŶĐĞ
ŽŵƉĂŶLJĂƵƚŽŵĂƚŝĐĂůůLJŝŶŝƚŝĂƚĞƐƉĂLJŵĞŶƚ
2.2 Evolution of money
ŽŵƉĂŶLJǀĞƌŝĨLJĂŶĚĂĐĐĞƉƚƐƉĂLJŵĞŶƚ
ŽŵƉĂŶLJĂƵƚŽŵĂƚŝĐĂůůLJŝŶŝƚŝĂƚĞƐƉĂLJŵĞŶƚ
ŽŵƉĂŶLJǀĞƌŝĨLJĂŶĚĂĐĐĞƉƚƐƉĂLJŵĞŶƚ
Blockchain technology: 279
2.2 Evolution of money
566 : Financial Engineering And Planning
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Tip
Starting with Barter trade What problems resulted into the next evolution?
Case study
The cost of sending money through banks and money transfer operators is high in Africa at an astronomical rate.
On average, sending an equivalent of $200 costs 9.3 percent of the value transferred. This is the highest
remittance rates anywhere in the world according to the world bank’s 2019 report. In contrast, the use of
cryptocurrency based financial technology (fintech) firms such as Bitpesa cuts the cost by 90 percent.
The amount sent to Africa by Africans abroad is estimated to be about $46 million to support families in their
countries. Most of the money sent is used to cater for education, food, clothes among others. Meanwhile, a lump
sum of more than $4.7 million is being taken by the financial institutions as transfer fees.
The world bank notes that the bank is the most expensive agent for sending money back to Africa at 10.2 percent,
followed by most transfer operators at 7.7 percent and post office at 5.5 percent. This is very much costly in
comparison to the sustainable Development Goals target of cutting financial transfer costs to within 3% of total
transaction value by 2030.
While the financial institutions have been charging Africans exorbitant price for Remittance, crypto-based
remittance has become a solace for Africans, because of its low fees, efficiency and speed. One of crypto-based
Remittance platforms offering solace to Africans is Bitpesa.
Bitpesa now has operations in eight African countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Kenya,
Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda.
Tip
Which method of remittance would you prefer? Why?
Who forced you to use mobile money transfer (Mpesa)?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2.3 Properties of Cryptocurrencies.
1. Irreversible – Once you have sent the Crypto and it is confirmed, the transaction is 100% irreversible.
2. High Volatility-The price of a cryptocurrency is determined by demand and supply. Given that the supply is
fixed, changes in demand causes changes in price.
……………..Example……………………………….
Price volatility for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) cryptocurrencies.
280 Financial Engineering and Planning
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Option Values: 567
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
3. Highly Secure – Cryptocurrencies are governed by a security system known as cryptography.
4. Instantaneous – Another highly valuable property of the modern cryptocurrency is that transfers happen
immediately.
5. Anonymity – Bitcoin owners are not identifiable (KYC not done), but all transactions are publicly available in the
blockchain. Still, cryptocurrency exchanges are often required by law to collect the personal information of their
users.
6. Inbuilt monetary policy- The other neat monetary property of cryptocurrencies is that they have a very
specifically controlled supply, issue rate, approvals etc. which is preprogrammed.
Tip
Why do we have inflation?
Case study
As the situation in Venezuela intensifies, a local bitcoin user details how he and his family use the cryptocurrency
to survive the country’s ongoing crisis. Keeping all of his money in bitcoin, he only exchanges small amounts into
the hyperinflating bolivar when necessary.
In order to buy everyday necessities such as milk, Hernández explained that cryptocurrencies must be converted
into bolivars. He uses Local bitcoins to find buyers who use the same bank he does so “the wire transfer can go
through immediately,” he said, elaborating.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
7. Mining- is the process of creating Cryptocurrencies and validation of transactions before they are recorded on
the blockchain.
8. Financial Inclusion-Cryptocurrency increase financial Inclusion (just like mpesa). According to the Universal
Financial Access 2020 Initiative 73% of all financially excluded people are from developing countries. Clearly,
increased GDP correlates with increased financial inclusion.
Tip
What are the barriers to financial inclusion in Tanzania?
What are the benefits of financial Inclusion?
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
9. Cryptocurrency storage- cryptocurrency are stored in electronic wallets for use and exchanged in
cryptocurrency exchanges. A cryptocurrency wallet stores the public and private "keys" or "addresses" which can
be used to receive or spend the cryptocurrency.
10. Private money-Just like mpesa as it is not issued by the central bank or any government.
2.4 Types of Cryptocurrencies.
It is important to note that there are more than 2000 different types of cryptocurrencies in the market visit
www.coinmarketcap.com. The description of each can be seen in their respective white papers. Below is an
extract of the coinmarketcap.com.
Blockchain technology: 281
568 : Financial Engineering And Planning
…………………………..Example………………………….
© GTG
2.5 Challenges in Cryptocurrencies
1. The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) has not yet issued a standard or clear guidance for
accounting of cryptocurrencies.
2. Lack of Regulations.
3. Scams and Pyramid Schemes.
4. Lack of Knowledge.
5. Lack of experts.
Tip
Cryptocurrencies are borderless how do we regulate them?
Which institution should regulate block chain in Tanzania?
…
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
……………..Test Yourself 2………………………………………….
How could cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin in specific, be helpful for the developing part of the world?
3. Differentiating Blockchain , Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency (Learning Outcomes c)
3.1 Differences
Block chain, Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are closely linked, yet very different.
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To clear the confusion between these words think about the internet. You have the internet and the applications.
The internet is a platform that enables lots of applications like Facebook, WhatsApp etc. to operate. Some apps
extend further with i would say sub apps. Example Email extends further to yahoo, Hotmail, gmail etc.
Now let’s think of Blockchain as the internet. In other words, blockchain is a new type of platform that enables
people and companies to build applications for a diverse range of needs.
The first application to the Blockchain is Bitcoin. Bitcoin as defined earlier is a medium of exchange disrupting the
finance and banking industry. Altcoins are other alternatives to the Bitcoin like Ethereum, Ripple.
Cryptocurrency means Bitcoins and Altcoins.
TIP
Bitcoin is the first application to the Blockchain, it is also the first Cryptocurrency worldwide.
………………………………………………………………………
To drill down the intuition, products and services built using the blockchain technology don’t necessarily include the
feature ‘cryptocurrency’. But all products with the feature ‘cryptocurrency’ today are necessarily built using
blockchain technology.
So, our newly formed intuition allows us to confidently say that Blockchain, Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies aren’t the
same.
In general cryptocurrency is simply a digital, paperless currency. So, one of the main purposes is to allow
payments to be made between individuals, between individuals and organisations etc. The main difference with fiat
currencies like Tzs ,US$, Euro, is that the fiat are created by countries and issued by their respective central
banks, cryptocurrencies are created and issued by people and companies.
USE CASE
The blockchain is not just limited to the financial system; instead, it is a great solution for almost any platform or
product that requires trust, - from a simple keyless automobile entry authentication to tamperproof electronic voting
machines and several others. In short, the idea behind Blockchain is to be able to establish and verify trust without
the need of a centralized system. Blockchain technology offers a lot of potentially disruptive power, and companies
are already in the race for different product offerings. As the industry continues to evolve, blockchain stands out as
the best investment for future returns.
Blockchain technology: 283
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Test Yourself 3………………………………………….
Differentiate between Blockchain, Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency.
Conclusion
Use of a blockchain does not change the outcome of the transaction, it simply changes the transaction process
and the way that information is regarded as trusted.
Answers to self-test
1. Self-test 1
How is a blockchain ledger different from an ordinary one?
The first and in fact the prime difference is, Blockchain is a digital ledger that can be decentralized very easily. The
chances of error in this approach are far less than that in an ordinary ledger. An ordinary ledger is what that is
prepared by hands or by human efforts while the Blockchain performs all its tasks automatically. You just need to
configure it in a proper manner and by following all the guidelines. Blockchain ledger is decentralized while
ordinary ledger is always centralized.
2. Self-Test 2
How could cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin in specific, be helpful for the developing part of the world?
Money transfer can be widely supported with Bitcoin; this option is associated with leapfrogging not only traditional
financial services, but eventually services over mobile, like M-PESA, as well.
It can enable populations that have no access to financial services, transact and transfer money with ease. It can
provide with a way to leapfrog traditional services, moving straight to wireless and digital.
3. Self-test 3
Differentiate between Blockchain, Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency.
Blockchain is the technology on which Bitcoin is built on. Bitcoin or cryptocurrency is just one application of
Blockchain Technology.
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Option Values: 571
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, mother of all altcoins. And blockchain is a digital ledger that provides a secure way of
making and recording transactions.
Besides, several other applications are using Blockchain as their base. For example, there are Social Media
platforms based on Blockchain, Identity Management applications and KYC applications based on Blockchain and
more.
Quick Quiz
1.Block chain is the same as bitcoin.
o True
o False
2. Block chain is also known as a distributed ledger?
o True
o False
3. When a record is on a blockchain, who can access it?
a. Multiple people simultaneously.
b. One person at a time.
c. Only the people involved in the transaction.
4. Once records are submitted on a blockchain, can they be altered?
a. Yes – the parties can go back in and alter them at any time.
b. Yes – but only within a certain time frame.
c. No – they cannot be altered.
5. Are blockchains fully public?
a. Yes
b. No
c. It depends
Answers to Quick Quiz
Ans 1 “False”: Bitcoin is a digital currency, while block chain is a digital global ledger on which transactions are
recorded chronologically and viewable to all who have access. Block chain can record cryptocurrency transactions
and provide a home for documents such as property deeds, birth records, and smart contracts. Think of blockchain
as the rails that bitcoin and another cryptocurrencies ride on.
Ans 2 “True”: Another name for blockchain is distributed or decentralized ledger. Accountants record transactions
in a ledger and soon transactions will be recorded in the blockchain.
Ans 3” A” Block chain is a decentralized, transparent public ledger where individuals can share information
without having to trust a third party to verify the information. Multiple people can access copies of the ledger
simultaneously, allowing transactions such as contracts to be recorded and verified without a principal authority.
Ans 4.”C”. Once records are submitted on a blockchain, they are almost impossible to alter, even by the records’
owner, providing transactions a high level of security.
Ans 5.C.Blockchains can be public, private or combined.
Public blockchains allow anyone to read and send transactions. On public blockchains, user identities are
anonymous. Well-known examples of public blockchains include digital currencies bitcoin and Ethereum.
Private blockchains are centralized under a single organization.
Self-examination Questions
Question 1
Review of Board of directors’ minutes of XYZ Company ltd noted that during the year under review debtors
amounting to TZS 300 were written off. Further review of the financial statements noted that the Revenue
Accountant recognized debtors amounting to TZS 1000 during the year under review and TZS 1500 in the
previous year.
Audit review by GTM auditors noted receivables amounting to TZS 200 were missing from the books of accounts
without any explanation.
Required:
amounting to TZS 300 were written off. Further review of the financial statements noted that the Revenue
Accountant recognized debtors amounting to TZS 1000 during the year under review and TZS 1500 in the
previous year.
Audit review by GTM auditors noted receivables amounting to TZS 200 were missing from
the books
of accounts
Blockchain
technology:
285
without
any
explanation.
572 : Financial Engineering And Planning
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1. What are the causes of misstatement of financial statements that can be prevented by distributed ledger?
Required:
572
: Financial Engineering And Planning
© GTG
1.
What
are
the
causes
of
misstatement
of
financial
statements
that
can
be
prevented
by
distributed
ledger?
Question 2
Question
Mlimani ltd2is a multinational company which manufactures high quality Television sets. Godwin John is the Chief
executive officer of Mlimani ltd. Godin has been visited by a blockchain expert who is trying to convince him to shift
Mlimani ltd is a multinational company which manufactures high quality Television sets. Godwin John is the Chief
to the technology.
executive officer of Mlimani ltd. Godin has been visited by a blockchain expert who is trying to convince him to shift
to
the technology.
Required:
Required:
1. What is the difference between transactions recorded in a centralized ledger and a decentralized ledger
(Blockchain)?
1. What is the difference between transactions recorded in a centralized ledger and a decentralized ledger
(Blockchain)?
Question 3
Question
What
type 3of records can be kept in a Blockchain? Is there any restriction on same?
What type of records can be kept in a Blockchain? Is there any restriction on same?
Question 4
Question 4
Why we can't reverse the transaction?
Why we can't reverse the transaction?
Question 5
Question 5
Economically, money has evolved over thousands of years from trading shells, rectangular plastic, fiat currency
and now Cryptocurrency, each to suit the needs of its time and population.
Economically, money has evolved over thousands of years from trading shells, rectangular plastic, fiat currency
and
now Cryptocurrency, each to suit the needs of its time and population.
Required:
Required:
1. What is the Differences between fiat currency and cryptocurrencies
1.
What istothe
Differences between
fiat currency and cryptocurrencies
Answers
Self-examination
Questions
Answers
Self-examination
Questions
Answer totoSEQ
1
Answer
SEQ
1
What aretothe
causes
of misstatement of financial statements that can be prevented by distributed ledger?
What
are entries
the causes of misstatement of financial statements that can be prevented by distributed ledger?
Duplicate
Errors and omission
Duplicate entries
Manipulation
Errors and omission
Lack of transparency
Manipulation
Hacking
Lack of transparency
Data corruption
Hacking
Data corruption
Answer to SEQ 2
Answer
SEQ
2
What is to
the
difference
between transactions recorded in a centralized ledger and a decentralized ledger
(Blockchain)?
What is the difference between transactions recorded in a centralized ledger and a decentralized ledger
(Blockchain)?
Transactions recorded in a distributed ledger have more than these characteristics which are not found in a
centralized ledger.
Transactions recorded in a distributed ledger have more than these characteristics which are not found in a
centralized
1. Hashed.ledger.
1.
2. Hashed.
Immutable.
2.Distributed.
Immutable.
3.
3.
4 Distributed.
Transparent.
4
5.Transparent.
Consensus agreement
5. Consensus agreement
Answer to SEQ 3
Answer
to of
SEQ
3
What type
records
can be kept in a Blockchain? Is there any restriction on same?
What
records on
can
be keptrecords
in a Blockchain?
Is the
there
any restriction
on same?
There type
is noof
restriction
keeping
of any type in
Blockchain
approach.
Industries are using Blockchain
for securing all types of records.
There is no restriction on keeping records of any type in the Blockchain approach. Industries are using Blockchain
for
typesofofrecords
records.
Thesecuring
commonalltypes
(to name a few) that can be kept on the Blockchains are:
The common types of records (to name a few) that can be kept on the Blockchains are:
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•
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Records of medical transactions
Identity management
Transaction processing
Business transactions,
Management activities
Documentation
Option Values: 573
Answer to SEQ 4
Why we can't reverse the transaction?
When your transaction is posted, it will be in the pool and there is no reversal. This is because the blockchain
network are designed to be irreversible and there is no control over this issue. It is designed to not do so and
likewise for the Bitcoin network.
If you failed to double-check your transaction and had sent an incorrect amount or to the wrong recipient, there is
no reversal for it. Hence, it is extremely important to make sure that the transaction details are correct before you
click send. Rather, you have to initiate the correction transactions, and this will be a new block to the blockchain of
the distributed ledger.
Answer to SEQ 5
What is the Differences between fiat currency and cryptocurrencies?
While both fiat money and cryptocurrencies can be used as a means of payment, there are some differences.
Legality
Governments issue fiat currencies, which are in return regulated by the central bank. Fiat money is deemed legal
tender in that it is often the official means of finalizing transactions. Governments control fiat money supply and
issue policies from time to time that affects their value.
Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, are merely digital assets that act as a medium of exchange that governments
have no control over. The decentralization aspect means no central body can control or influence their value.
Tangibility
It is not possible to have a physical feel of cryptocurrencies as they operate online as virtual coins. Fiat currencies,
on the other hand, have a physical aspect as they can exist as coins and notes thus possible to have a physical
feel.
Supply
A major difference between fiat money and cryptocurrency has to do with supply. Fiat money has an unlimited
supply which means central authorities have no cap to the extent in which they can produce money.
Most cryptocurrencies have a cap when it comes to supply, which means there is a set amount of coins that will
ever be in supply. For example, the total number of Bitcoin coins that will ever be in supply is capped at 21 million.
Storage
Cryptocurrencies virtual aspect means they can only exist online thereby stored in digital wallets commonly
referred to as cryptocurrency wallets.
The versatility of fiat money, on the other hand, means it can be stored in various forms. For instance, there are
payment providers such as PayPal that allow people to store fiat money in digital form. Banks also do act as
custodian of hard currencies.
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SECTION
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MANAGING RISK
E1
STUDY GUIDE E1: MANAGING RISK
You have already studied what risk is. Risk management consists of understanding and managing the risks that
an organisation is exposed to while it pursues its business objectives. Although there are several categories of
risk, in this Study Guide we look at the financial risks that an organisation is exposed to and the tools it can use
to manage them. If not managed well, the consequences to the firm can be disastrous.
a) Identify and explain the financial risks of a business based on a given scenario, data and information.
b) Explain how financial instruments such as hedging and derivative products may be used to manage
risks and the nature of such products.
c) Identify and explain the alternative approaches to managing interest rate exposure based on a given
scenario, data and information evaluating the costs of basic hedging arrangements.
d) Identify and explain the alternative approaches to managing currency rate exposure based on a given
scenario, data and information evaluating the costs of basic hedging arrangements.
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1. Identify and explain the financial risks of a business based on a given scenario, data and
information.
[Learning Outcome a]
Rhythms Ltd is a manufacturer and exporter of a range of traditional African and modern musical instruments. It
caters to clients in over ten countries all over the world. To finance its operations, it has borrowed both from
local markets and overseas markets (at flexible interest rates based on LIBOR). It also imports components
from Japan and the US for use in some of its products.
A look at the firm’s business profile suggests that the firm is exposed to several financial risks. It is exposed to
currency risks, as it imports and exports on a large scale. It has foreign currency and flexible interest rate
borrowings, which indicates that the firm is exposed to currency as well as interest rate fluctuations.
It is therefore crucial for Rhythms to manage its financial risks very closely.
1.1 Financial risks
The exposure of an organisation to financial risks will depend on the nature of its business and capital gearing.
An analysis of the expected cash flows that shows the debt repayments due, compared to the cash inflows from
its business revenues, will indicate the timing and amount of mismatch in cash flows. This will help detect any
potential liquidity and interest rate risks. If the firm has foreign currency exposures, foreign exchange risk will be
an additional potential risk.
The financial risks that an organisation is normally exposed to include:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
liquidity risk
funding risk
interest rate risk
foreign exchange risk
commodity price risk
credit risk
operating risk
1. Liquidity risk
Liquidity risk is the risk that the firm will not have sufficient resources available to pay off suppliers and other
debts. There could also be the risk that the loans the firm requires to manage its operations may not be
available at the time they are required or at an acceptable cost. In case the firm defaults on the loans or
breaches any of the debt covenants, there is the risk of the loan being recalled or the credit facilities being
withdrawn.
The organisation has to plan its operations and cash flows in such a manner that it has liquid resources
available for outlays such as future debt repayments, capital expenditure, seasonal fluctuations, acquisitions
and contingencies. The firm has to plan well in advance to source funds from equity issues, debt and supplier
finance.
There are three types of liquidity risks:
(a) Mismatch or structural liquidity risk
The liquidity risk in a firm’s current statement of financial position (SOFP) structure occurs due to varying
maturity periods of the current assets and current liabilities, i.e. a mismatch between liquid liabilities and liquid
assets
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The accounts payable of Richmond plc is an average of 30 days. The credit offered to the customers is 60 days.
The firm does not have large cash balances or an overdraft limit. In such a case the firm will face liquidity
problems as the maturity period of accounts payable is less than that of accounts receivables. On an average,
the suppliers have to be paid within 30 days, whereas the cash inflow from customers will be received on an
average within 60 days. Therefore, there is a gap or mismatch in the maturities of the current liabilities as
against the current assets.
The firm is bound to face liquidity issues, especially because it does not have adequate cash balances or
overdraft limits available. The firm cannot sustain this situation for long, as sooner or later the suppliers will
withdraw their credit facilities and demand cash.
(b) Contingency liquidity risk
It signifies a risk that in the future, the firm may require a significantly large amount of cash than its cash flow
projection allows. This situation can arise due to unusual or unexpected variations in the timing of cash flows
(term liquidity risk). For example, an unexpected demand for funds, due to heavy unplanned cash purchases to
take advantage of better prices or due to a major breakdown of the plant requiring a significant outflow of cash
for repairs.
(c) Market liquidity risk
The risk that the firm (typically a bank or financial institution) is unable to sell its securities and / or assets at or
near fair value due to market disruption or due to loss of the firm’s reputation. Although the asset has a value,
there may not be any buyers at that moment. Therefore, the asset may have to be sold at a substantial discount
if the seller needs cash urgently. Firms can do a simple “liquidity gap” analysis to measure the liquidity risk.
Liquidity gap is the net value of a firm’s liquid asset. It is measured as the excess of the value of a firm's liquid
assets over the value of its volatile liabilities. A firm with a negative liquidity gap must concentrate on its cash
balance and possible unexpected changes in its values.
However, as it is a static measure of liquidity risk, it cannot provide any indication of how the gap would change
with time or with an increase in the firm's marginal funding cost.
2. Funding risk
Large borrowers usually face funding risk. The risk is that the investors may come to the conclusion that the
securities issued by the firm are not attractive. Consequently, the prices may fall and access to the market may
become difficult. The risk faced by smaller firms depends upon the extent to which they rely on the support of
their banks and shareholders, as they may not find it financially feasible to issue debt securities in the market
When interest rates rise, the value of the bonds fall as the yield goes down. The firm will find it difficult to raise
additional funds from the debt market unless the interest rates are raised. The cost of funds consequently
increases.
When access to funds are denied or become difficult to obtain, the risks of the business increase. The firm
cannot grow in spite of available opportunities. Such firms may have to resort to equity funding. However, the
firm cannot increase equity funding beyond a limit as the cost of equity is very high and the growth in earnings
per share (EPS) may not be able to match market expectations.
AB Ltd is a medium sized firm, in operation over the last eight years. The profitability has been very moderate.
The firm has been funded so far by the promoters through equity infusions. The firm has been pursuing growth
opportunities and has identified a large project, which can improve its profitability. The firm’s management
believes that being a medium sized company and based on past financials, it would neither be possible nor
economical for the firm to raise the required funds through a bond issue.
The management has therefore decided to approach a bank with its business plan to seek funding. The bank is
not very keen on financing the full amount sought by the firm as the financial performance of the firm has not
been very encouraging. The bank has agreed to finance 60% of the project investment of Tshs1000billion at an
interest rate of 13%. The current market rate is 11%.The balance has to be brought in through equity funding.
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3. Interest rate risk
Interest rate risk is the risk of an increase in the interest expense of the firm due to changes in interest rates.
Changes in market rates of interest may also affect fixed-rate securities as the yields my fall, leading to a
decline in the prices. The firm has to analyse the impact of such changes on its income statement.
Causes of interest rate fluctuation
Interest rates reflect the cost of borrowing or the price of money and are influenced by the following factors:
Demand and Supply: interest rates will increase with an increase in the demand for credit and vice versa.
Inflation: the higher the rate of inflation, the more interest rates are likely to rise. This occurs as a result of
lenders demanding greater interest rates as compensation for the likely reduction in the purchasing power
of the money they will be receiving in the future.
Government policy: long term interest rates are influenced by monetary policy declared and reviewed by
the government.
One principle of bonds is that market rates of interest and the bond prices move in opposite directions. If the
market rates rise, the bond price falls due to the operation of the interest rate risk.
If two bonds with the same characteristics of maturity, and credit rating offer different coupon rates, the bond
with a lower coupon rate will have a higher interest rate risk than the bond offering a higher rate.
Safe Bank Ltd has the following market asset-liability structure
Assets
Liabilities
Equity
Tshs2000 billion
Tshs1600 billion
Tshs400 billion
asset modified duration = 6.0
liability modified duration = 1.7
If all the interest rates increase by 1.5%, what will be the impact on the bank’s equity market value?
Assets: Tshs2000 billion x 6 x1.5% = Tshs180billion reduction in market value
Liabilities: Tshs1600 x 1.7 x 1.5% =Tshs40.8billion decrease in market value.
Therefore, net reduction in equity =
Loss in asset value Tshs180 billion – gain arising from reduction in liabilities Tshs40.8billion= Tshs139.8billion
Therefore, balance market value of equity = Tshs400billion-Tshs139.8billion =Tshs260.2billion
In an economic environment where interest rates are rising, a company which has floating rate debt will be
required to pay higher interest costs and this will adversely affect their financial position. They lose their
competitive advantage compared to those who have fixed rate debt as higher interest eats away more of their
profits.
Companies which have fixed rate debt will suffer in a situation where interest rates are falling. In this situation,
companies who have floating interest rate debt will be in an advantageous position.
Entities, which have invested their surplus funds in debt instruments, are also exposed to interest rate risk. If
surplus funds are invested in floating rate instruments and if interest rates are falling, they will lose interest
income. In the case of investment funds, this could adversely affect the performance of their funds.
(a) Basis Risk
A benchmark interest rate is linked to the interest rate that is charged on a loan. The benchmark interest rate
acts as a reference rate and the premium / discount on the benchmark rate is adjusted to obtain the interest rate
charged on a loan.
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Mark Plc has obtained a floating rate loan at LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) + 0.5%. The loan is
renewed after every three months. The current LIBOR is 3%. Hence, the interest rate charged on the loan is
3.5% (3% + 0.5%). The LIBOR after three months is 2.75%. Hence, the interest rate on the loan will be revised
to 3.25% (2.75% + 0.5%).
The rate of interest may be linked to different benchmarks e.g. LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate), rates
prescribed by the central bank, treasury bills etc. If companies have assets and liabilities of similar value with
floating interest rate, variations in the interest rates do not make any difference to the company as the effect of
an increase or decrease in the floating interest rate will ultimately not affect the company’s cost. Increase /
decrease in interest cost on the assets will be offset by decrease / increase in interest cost on the liabilities.
However, if the floating interest rate of the assets is based on LIBOR and the floating rate of the liability is based
on a EURIBOR this will give rise to basis risk. The two different benchmark bases used for interest rate may
move in different directions at the same time or at different times.
Rocktrack Ltd has obtained a floating loan of £300,000 for one year at EURIBOR + 1%. The interest is revised
after every three months. The current EURIBOR rate is 2.5%. Hence, the interest charged on the loan is 3.5%.
Rocktrack Ltd has given a long term floating rate loan to one of its subsidiaries. The amount of loan is £300,000
and the interest charged is LIBOR + 1%. The interest rate is revised after every three months. The current
LIBOR is 2.5%. Hence, the interest charged on the loan is 3.5% (2.5% + 1%). After three months, the EURIBOR
increases to 2.75% and the LIBOR decreases to 2.25%. Now, the loan obtained by Rocktrack Ltd has an
interest rate of 3.75% but the loan given by Rocktrack Ltd to its subsidiary has an interest rate of 3.25%.
(b) Gap Exposure
A situation may arise where assets and liabilities are of the same value with the same floating interest rate
benchmark used for both assets and liabilities (e.g. LIBOR). However, it may be possible that interest rates for
assets are revised on a three-monthly basis and rates for liabilities are revised on a six-monthly basis. In this
situation, due to the gap between the interest rate revision timings, gap exposure risk may arise.
Continuing the example of Rocktrack Ltd
Lets us assume that the interest rate on the loan given by Rocktrack Ltd is revised after every six months on the
loan based on LIBOR and after every three months on the loan based on EURIBOR rise by 0.5% each.
This means that after three months the loan obtained by Rocktrack Ltd will has an interest rate of 4%.
However, the loan given by Rocktrack Ltd to its subsidiary will still carry the interest rate of is 3.5%.
Hedges available to manage interest rate risks are:
Forward rate contracts (FRA): Under this agreement, one party pays a fixed interest rate and receives a
floating interest rate based on a reference rate such as LIBOR. The actual payments are calculated based
on a notional principal amount and paid at intervals determined by the parties
Futures: A futures contract is similar to a forward, but it has a lower risk than a forward contract as the risk
of default is reduced as there is an intermediary e.g. a bank, involved.
Swaps: An interest rate swap involves an agreement between counterparties to exchange sets of future
cash flows. One party receives a floating rate and pays a fixed interest rate, and the other party receives a
fixed rate and pays a floating rate.
Options: options are contracts for which the underlying security is a debt obligation. Options help in
protecting parties who are involved in floating-rate loans.
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4. Foreign exchange risk
Changes in the rate of exchange used will affect foreign currency revenues and expenses and assets or
liabilities when converted to the home currency. We have already studied that foreign exchange exposures are
of three types: transaction exposures, translation exposures and economic exposures.
5. Commodity price risk
Commodity price risk is the risk that a change in the price of key inputs or the finished product of the firm will
adversely affect financial performance. Often, there is an element of foreign exchange risk also involved if the
inputs/outputs are imported / exported. The price volatility in almost all commodities has been extremely high in
recent times and the risk of exposure to such risks has become even greater than the foreign exchange
exposure.
A commodity price risk emerges when a firm purchases or sells significant quantities of raw materials. With a
commodity hedge, the firm usually knows the price of the major raw material purchases much before its
purchase and so can plan the prices of its goods or services well in time. The sellers and buyers of commodities
are exposed to fluctuations in global market prices.
A price hedge that is separate from purchases and sales offers companies effective risk management regardless
of time and place.
The hedging methods available to mitigate commodity price risk are:
(a) Forward Contracts
A forward contract is an agreement between two parties such as a cotton farmer or trader and a textile mill, in
which the seller (the farmer/cotton trader) agrees to deliver to the buyer (textile mill) a specified quantity and
quality of cotton at a specified future date at a pre-determined price. The contract is mutually negotiated and
usually there is no specific market or exchange at which this process can be conducted.
Both parties to the forward contract are expected to make or receive delivery of the commodity on the due date
of the contract. It is normally difficult to opt out a forward contract unless the other party agrees.
(b) Futures Contracts
Futures contracts, are similar to forward contracts, but contain some features that are more advantageous for
risk management. The contract obligations can be extinguished by “offsetting”, rather than actual delivery of the
commodity. Typically futures contracts are extinguished by offsetting than by actual delivery.
Futures contracts are traded in organised exchanges for a large number of commodities such as cotton, grains,
crude oil, metals and also bonds and currencies. They are traded by open outcry where traders and brokers
shout bids and offers from a trading pit at designated times and places. Futures prices are forecasts that change
for several reasons, such as crop or weather reports.
(c) Options
Commodity options are of two types, put and call. The put option sets a minimum price for the contracted
amount of the commodity. This gives the buyer the right but not the obligation to take a short position in the
underlying at a specific price within a specified time period.
When a farmer/trader buys a put option, for a premium, he has the option to sell or go short on a specific
futures market contract if the price of that contract falls below the strike price.
The call option sets the maximum price for the contract amount of the commodity. This gives the buyer the right
but not the obligation to take a long position in the underlying futures at the strike price within a specified time
period.
The option-holder (buyer) has three alternatives:
the option can be allowed to expire
the option can be sold to another person
the option can be exercised with the seller having to sell the underlying futures
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The economy of many developing countries depends largely on the production and export of raw material
commodities, such as crude oil, copper and agricultural commodities, such as tobacco and cocoa. Owing to
such a heavy reliance on commodities the economies of these countries are exposed to price volatility of the
commodities. Such price changes cause large fluctuations in revenue collections. It also causes difficulties in
the debt management.
Price volatility affects the fiscal balances of economies as their revenues are largely dependent on commodityrelated taxes, royalties, and dividend income from their state-owned trading businesses. When the commodity
prices fall, the revenues also immediately fall, forcing these economies to resort to debt to meet their
expenditure. Managing debt then becomes problematic as the debts have to be serviced and repayments made.
6. Credit risk
The risk that the other party involved in a transaction will not be able to meet its financial obligations is called the
credit risk. It is called “default risk”. It may include:
counterparty risk, which is the risk that the other party to a transaction will not meet its obligations as to
timing or amount of settlement
Country / political / sovereign risk relates to government actions that may adversely affect the performance
of the contract by one of the parties. They are generally beyond the direct control of the counterparty.
Estimating credit losses:
The common terms used in estimating credit losses are:
(a) Probability of default (PD): this refers to the possibility that the borrower or the customer will not make entire
and on time repayment of their financial obligations.
(b) Exposure at default (EAD): this refers to the expected value of the outstanding loan amount at the time of
default
(c) Loss given default (LGD): this refers to the amount of the loss, expressed as a percentage of the EAD, if
there is a default.
(d) Recovery rate (RR): this refers to the proportion of the outstanding loan (EAD) that the lender or seller is
able to recover.
In the event of a default, the loss is computed by the formula – LGD x EAD X PD
Advance Electronics has invoiced a customer for Tshs48 million. The credit period is 30 days. As the customer
is new, the firms CFO wants to know the possible loss in case of a default by the customer.
The firm has made a credit assessment of the customer and feels that the probability that the customer will pay
is 80%.
In case the customer defaults, the company estimates it can recover 40% of the outstanding amount.
The expected loss on default, given that:
PD = 1-0.8 = 0.2, EAD = Tshs48 million, LGD = 1.0-0.4 = 0.6 = 0.2 x Tshs48million x 0.6 = Tshs5.76million.
7. Business or operating risk
Although business risk is generally treated as a separate category of risk, it has a potential to impact the
financial performance of the firm.
The Basel Committee defines operational risk as the "risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal
processes, people and systems or from external events".
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Operational risk is the risk of financial loss resulting from an event which disrupts the normal business
processes.
There are different types of business risk. Risks can classify as internal and external to the business. They can
also directly or indirectly affect the business's ability to operate. Risks can also be viewed as hazard-based (e.g.
loss on account of a fire where hazardous chemicals are stored), uncertainty-based (e.g. floods, tsunami, bush
fires) or related to opportunities (e.g. taking them up or ignoring them).
The business process analysis begins with the identification of the different products and services, then the
people within the organisation and the tasks involved in providing these products. The process of monitoring
operational risk begins with the establishment of a risk map. This map is based on an analysis of business
processes wherein the risk impact and probability is analysed and placed in the appropriate box. The higher the
probability and impact, the greater is the focus on taking steps to mitigate the risk.
Diagram1: Risk map
Some common risk categories are:
(a) natural disasters, such as floods, storms, bushfires and drought
(b) legal, such as insurance issues, non-compliance with regulations
(c) global events, such as terror attacks
(d) technology, such as network failures and problems related to obsolete equipment
(e) regulatory and government policy changes, carbon emission restrictions, tax etc
(f) environmental, such as climate change, and pollution
(g) workplace health and safety, such as accidents caused by materials, equipment,
(h) property and equipment, such as damage from natural disasters, and vandalism
(i) security, such as theft, fraud, loss of intellectual property, terrorism,
(j) economic and financial, such as global economic meltdown, interest rate increases, cash flow issues,
customers default, rapid growth and rising costs
(k) staffing, such as human resources issues, lack of training, human error, conflict management and difficulty
filling vacancies
(l) suppliers, such as interruptions to the supply chain of materials
(m) market, such as changes in consumer preference and increased competition
2. Explain how financial instruments such as hedging and derivative products may be used to
manage risks and the nature of such products.
[Learning Outcome b]
Once the potential risks associated with a business (as discussed in Learning Outcome 1) have been identified,
the organisation needs to respond to the risks by effectively managing it.
An effective risk management should achieve three things:
increase the probability of business success
reduce the probability of business failure
reduce uncertainty as regards the achievement of overall objectives
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If a business faces a financial risk then the risk management model should:
increase the availability of finance for the business in the form of loans, credit facilities or capital in the form
of debentures or equity.
reduce the risk of unavailability of working capital that may lead to stoppage of day-to-day business
activities.
reduce the risk of failure of objectives due to lack of finance.
Risk management model
A risk management model can assist in understanding how effective risk processes can be designed,
implemented and embedded into the organisation and its business processes.
Risk management models should always be tested thoroughly using scenario analysis for extreme conditions
as a result of which the most optimistic, most likely and least likely events and outcomes can be established and
that the consequences of even remote possibilities can be known.
A key function of the finance manager is to manage the financial risks the firm is exposed to.
A risk management plan usually consists of four possible strategies the firm may adopt to manage risk:
Avoid, by modifying the action plan or abandoning it altogether so that the risk is avoided.
Control or mitigate by planning in advance the actions to be taken reduce the impact or the likelihood of
the event happening.
Accept, by assuming the risk, where unavoidable and creating a budget for the eventuality.
Transfer, to a third party that has the capability of managing the outcomes. Usually taking the cover through
an insurance policy and hedging transactions are frequently used by firms.
Financial instruments like hedging and derivative products can be used to manage financial risks.
2.1 Hedging
Hedging refers to the construction of an investment position (through financial instruments) aimed at offsetting /
reducing the risk from adverse movements in the price of an asset.
In hedging, derivative products (explained later) like swaps, futures, options, etc. are purchased with an objective
to minimise exposure to an unwanted business risk, while still allowing the business to profit from an investment
activity.
Nature of hedging
The following further explains the nature of hedging:
(a) Hedging is a long term proposition since the hedge funds are not liquid in nature as these funds are locked
for a period of two or more years.
(b) Hedging involves the use of varied financial instruments aimed at reducing risk and enhancing returns.
Short selling, derivative products like options and futures, equities, bonds, currencies, etc. can be used for
hedging, thus, making the technique of hedging diverse and flexible in nature.
(c) Many hedging instruments are aimed at providing consistent returns and preservation of capital rather than
providing huge quantum of returns.
(d) Certain hedged funds provide returns which do not bear any correlation with the actual market scenario.
Thus, it is important for the hedging individual / organisation to understand the strategy behind the hedging.
(e) Hedging is considered to be a skilled based strategy as the success of hedging lies in the manager’s ability
to execute the chosen strategy.
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2.2 Derivative products
Derivatives are financial instruments whose value is derived from the value of one or more basic variables
called the underlying.
Derivatives are external hedging tools that provide a mechanism for hedging against the exchange rate and
interest rate risks by pricing them in advance and protecting against future negative occurrences. Examples of
currency derivatives are currency futures, currency options, currency swaps, forwards etc. Examples of interest
rate derivatives are Forward Rate Agreements (FRAs), interest rate swaps, interest rate, etc.
1. Nature of derivative products
The most important function of derivative products is risk management. Financial derivatives are useful tools to
limit risk. The effective use of derivatives, by reducing risks, can reduce costs and it can increase returns for the
organisation
Another important application of derivatives, in relation to risk is the price discovery. This means that the
derivatives market reveals information about future cash market prices through the futures market. Prices of
financial instruments generally tend to move in the directions of the market expectations.
Derivatives markets also help to maintain a stabilising influence on spot prices by reducing the short-term
fluctuations i.e. derivatives try to balance out the highs and lows and bring about stability in prices in the cash
market for the underlying asset.
2. Players in derivative markets
There are various individuals and groups who have an interest in derivatives markets. The main participants are
parties who wish to hedge (i.e. the hedger), those who wish to speculate, and arbitrageurs.
(a) A hedger enters the market to reduce risk. Hedging usually involves taking a position in a derivative
financial instrument, which has the opposite return characteristics of the item being hedged, to offset losses
or gains.
(b) A speculator enters the derivatives market in search of profits, and is willing to accept risk. A speculator
takes an open position in a derivative product (i.e. there is no offsetting cash flow exposure to offset losses
on the position taken in the derivative product).
(c) An arbitrageur is a speculator who is interested in short-term gains and attempts to profit from price
differences by simultaneously entering into the purchase and sale of substantially identical financial
instruments.
Other players in derivates markets include banks, financial institutions clearing corporations, brokers, commodity
futures trading commission, commodity pool operators, commodity trading advisors, futures exchange, and
futures commission merchants.
3. Types of derivative contracts
(a) Exchange-traded derivative contracts
An exchange-traded derivative contract is a standardised contract with a standard underlying instrument,
quantity and timing of settlement. It can be bought or sold directly on a regulated exchange such as LIFFE (the
London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange) or CBOT (the Chicago Board of Trade).
An exchange-traded product has a standard contract specification, which sets out:
the quantity of the underlying asset
the date, month and place of delivery (if it is deliverable)
the obligation of each party to the contract
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Interest rate, futures, currency futures, options and Brent Crude oil futures.
(b) OTC derivative contracts
An over-the-counter (OTC) derivative is a privately negotiated derivative contract in which two parties agree to
settle a financial trade or agreement at a future date. OTC derivative contracts are bilateral derivative contracts
as they involve two parties. Each OTC contract is custom-designed and hence is unique in terms of contract
size, expiry date, asset type and quality. The OTC market could be compared to a real estate market in which
two consenting adults can enter into contracts with each other. Hence they can design the terms of the contract
tailored for their needs in that specific situation. However, this makes the contract non-tradable.
A company exposed to movements of the US dollar against Sterling might hedge its exchange risk by using
traded currency futures or options. A company whose exposure is some less traded currency, such as the
Polish Zloty or the Thai Baht, would probably use an OTC contract to hedge.
OTC contracts are useful for hedging foreign currency exposures.
An exporter from India who expects to receive payment in US dollars is exposed to the risk of exchange rate
fluctuations. To reduce the uncertainty associated with the future exchange rates, the exporter can use the
currency forward market to sell US dollars forward and lock in to a rate today. Similarly, an importer who
expects to make a payment in US dollars 3 months’ hence can reduce the exposure to exchange rate
fluctuations by buying these dollars forward.
(c) Distinction between exchange-traded derivatives and OTC derivatives
OTC derivatives
OTC derivatives are tailored to meet the needs of
the parties concerned.
Exchange-traded derivatives
These contracts are highly standardised both in size and
in terms of their delivery mechanism.
Access to individuals and small companies is
limited.
Can be used by banks, companies, financial institutions
and individuals.
OTC contracts are usually made with the intention
of delivery of the underlying asset.
Physical delivery is very rare. Contracts are usually
settled prior to the settlement date.
Margin requirements do not exist.
An initial margin is required, a further mark-to-market
margin may be necessary.
Trading takes place mainly through telephone /
telex / touch-screen trading, often via banks.
Trading takes place on an organised exchange.
Price can vary according to size of deal and
customer.
Settlement of the OTC derivative contract happens
at the end of the maturity period by delivery of the
underlying asset.
Less liquid in nature (e.g. forward contracts).
Single specified price published by the clearing house.
Exchange traded derivatives are settled daily by settling
the difference in the contracted price and the traded price
in cash. This is called the mark-to-market mechanism.
More liquid in nature (e.g. futures contracts).
The derivatives and hedging tools (of both currency and interest rates) have been explained in detail in
Study Guides E1, E2 and E3.
What is the basic principle of hedging?
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3. Identify and explain the alternative approaches to managing interest rate exposure based
on a given scenario, data and information evaluating the costs of basic hedging
arrangements.
[Learning Outcome c]
Star Ltd requires a Tshs1000m loan at a floating interest rate payable in the next three months. The current
floating interest rate is at 8 per cent and the company would not be in a position to predict the movement of
interest rates in the coming three months.
The bank is ready to guarantee a rate of 8.5 per cent for the next three months. Therefore, Star Ltd has limited
its interest cost to Tshs21.2 m i.e. ((Tshs1000m x 8.5% p.a.) /12) x 3.
However, the finance manager of Star Ltd thinks that the interest rates may go up. To protect itself from an
increase in interest costs, Star Ltd decides to hedge using forward interest rate agreement.
If interest rates go up to 9%, by entering into a forward interest rate agreement, Star Ltd has saved interest of
Tshs1.3 million (Tshs22.5 million – Tshs21.2 million - $0.212).
However, if, after three months, interest rates fall to 7.5 per cent, the interest cost would be Tshs18.75 million {(
Tshs1000 million x 7.5% p.a.) / 12 x 3} Star Ltd will be liable to pay the difference of Tshs2.45 million (Tshs21.2
million - Tshs18.75 million) to the bank.
3.1 Techniques of managing interest rate risk
All applications of interest rate contracts should balance the entity’s primary objectives of:
reducing cost of capital
minimising interest rate volatility
gaining efficiency in restructuring debt as and when needed
Interest rate risk (IRR) can be explained as the impact on an institution’s financial condition if it is exposed to
negative movements in interest rates. This risk can either be translated as an increase of interest payments that
it has to make against borrowed funds or a reduction in income that it receives from invested funds.
A rise in market interest rates may adversely affect a company’s financial position. The immediate impact of a
change in interest rates is on a company’s earnings and cash flows. The change in the interest rates also
impacts a bank’s financial condition, by affecting its net interest income.
A company can obtain debt at a fixed or a floating rate of interest. The uncertainty in interest rates exposes a
borrowing company to the following types of risk:
1. Fixed interest rates prove to be favourable when interest rates are rising. However, in a falling interest rate
scenario, companies that have fixed interest debt will pay higher interest, thereby reducing the profitability of
their operations.
2. Floating interest rates prove to be favourable when interest rates are falling. However, in a rising interest
rate scenario, companies that have floating interest rate debt will pay higher interest, thereby reducing the
profitability of their operations.
Similarly, for a depositing company, a rise in interest rates will be favourable to a company with floating interest
rate exposure and a fall in interest rates will be favourable to a company with fixed interest rate exposure.
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Diagram 2: Interest rates risk
Diagram 2: Interest rates risk
A company takes out a loan at a rate of interest equal to LIBOR (London Inter Bank Offer Rate) plus 0.1%.
A company takes out a loan at a rate of interest equal to LIBOR (London Inter Bank Offer Rate) plus 0.1%.
LIBOR is 5% at the start of the loan. The rate is to be reset each quarter with reference to the current threeLIBOR is 5% at the start of the loan. The rate is to be reset each quarter with reference to the current threemonth LIBOR. If commercial interest rates rise, the company runs the risk of increased interest payments.
month LIBOR. If commercial interest rates rise, the company runs the risk of increased interest payments.
Hence the company tries to ensure that its funding costs do not rise above a certain level via hedging its
Hence the company tries to ensure that its funding costs do not rise above a certain level via hedging its
exposure, or it may even consider paying a fixed rate of interest.
exposure, or it may even consider paying a fixed rate of interest.
Suppose, on the other hand, the company borrows at a fixed rate of 5.3% for two years. If LIBOR rises to 5.3%
Suppose, on the other hand, the company borrows at a fixed rate of 5.3% for two years. If LIBOR rises to 5.3%
or above, the company will be better off than if it had taken out a floating rate loan. However, if interest rates
or above, the company will be better off than if it had taken out a floating rate loan. However, if interest rates
remain unchanged or even fall, the company faces the risk of being locked into borrowing at above market
remain unchanged or even fall, the company faces the risk of being locked into borrowing at above market
rates. Therefore, the company may want to hedge this risk by entering into a derivative contract that will pay out
rates. Therefore, the company may want to hedge this risk by entering into a derivative contract that will pay out
if interest rates fall.
if interest rates fall.
It should be noted that risk management essentially involves judgement. A hedging strategy cannot completely
It should be noted that risk management essentially involves judgement. A hedging strategy cannot completely
eliminate the interest rate risk. Instead, it could minimise the risk and/or transform the risk from one type into
eliminate the interest rate risk. Instead, it could minimise the risk and/or transform the risk from one type into
another. Therefore, there is no absolute certainty that a chosen hedging strategy would necessarily improve the
another. Therefore, there is no absolute certainty that a chosen hedging strategy would necessarily improve the
earnings in the short run. The primary source of interest rate risk is the difference in the timing of assets and
earnings in the short run. The primary source of interest rate risk is the difference in the timing of assets and
liabilities, which indicates mismatches of attracted and borrowed invested funds in the timing of repayment
liabilities, which indicates mismatches of attracted and borrowed invested funds in the timing of repayment
and/or interest rate changes.
and/or interest rate changes.
Risk limits control situations, which may arise if the reality appears to be different from projections. Methods of
Risk limits control situations, which may arise if the reality appears to be different from projections. Methods of
setting limits for the organisation level of interest rate risk should be defined in the organisation’s policies e.g. if
setting limits for the organisation level of interest rate risk should be defined in the organisation’s policies e.g. if
market interest rate increases beyond certain levels, then the credit period allowed to customers would be
market interest rate increases beyond certain levels, then the credit period allowed to customers would be
reviewed or adjusted accordingly.
reviewed or adjusted accordingly.
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
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3.2 Today, a variety of hedging tools can be used to reduce, eliminate, or offset interest rate exposure.
1. Matching and smoothing
(a) Smoothing
By maintaining a balance between fixed interest rates and floating interest rates on borrowing, a company can
offset losses due to the increase in floating interest rates by fixed interest rates or vice versa. Therefore, if
interest rates rise, the disadvantage of a relatively expensive floating rate loan will be cancelled out by the less
expensive fixed rate loan. If interest rates fall, the disadvantage of the relatively expensive fixed rate loan will be
cancelled out by the less expensive floating rate loan.
Hence it is necessary to maintain a proper mix of fixed and floating interest rate loan. This will sometimes cause
a loss of competitive edge for the company in particular environments.
(b) Matching
In this method, a company tries to match the liabilities and assets which both have a common interest rate.
A decentralised group has two subsidiaries. One subsidiary invests in the money market at a floating interest
rate, whilst the other subsidiary borrows, through the same money market, at a floating interest rate. If interest
rates rise, one subsidiary’s borrowing cost increases while the other subsidiary’s return increases. Hence, there
is no increase in the interest costs for the group as a whole as they off-set each other.
The problem with this method is that practically, it may be difficult for companies to match the magnitude and
characteristics of their assets and liabilities.
Banks and financial institutions extensively use matching techniques to minimise their interest payments.
Costs associated: To derive benefit from smoothing techniques, the company has to maintain two lots of
transactions and incur arrangement costs.
2. Asset and liability management
Asset Liability Management (ALM) is a risk-management principle that is often applied in private financial
institutions. ALM states that, as far as possible, the entire SOFP, i.e. both assets and liabilities, should be
included in the risk analysis, in order to compile the overall exposure. This makes it possible to limit the risk by
matching the financial characteristics of respective assets and liabilities, so that one side of the SOFP hedges
the other side.
Other interest hedging tools and their associated costs have been discussed in LOs (a), (b) and (c) of Study
Guide E1.
Why do banks in particular use the Asset Liability management technique? Explain by citing an example.
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4. Identify and explain the alternative approaches to managing currency rate exposure based
on a given scenario, data and information evaluating the costs of basic hedging
arrangements.
[Learning Outcome d]
Brilliant Ltd is a Kenya based company and pays interest and principal on a KES10,000 bond with a 10%
coupon in Kenyan shillings. The exchange rate at the time of purchase is KES1:20 Tshs.
The 10% coupon payment is equal to KES1,000 and in equivalent Tanzanian shillings = Tshs20,000. If one
year later, the exchange rate is 1:25, the bond's 10% coupon payment, which would be KES1,000, it will be
worth Tshs25,000. The gain is solely related to the change in exchange rates between the Kenyan and
Tanzanian shilling. As the Kenyan shilling has appreciated against the Tanzanian shilling, the Tanzanian holder
of a Kenyan asset gains.
4.1 Methods of foreign currency risk management
Foreign exchange risk affects the profits as well as the cash flows of the companies dealing in more than one
currency. A favourable currency movement can have a positive impact whereas an unfavourable currency
movement can have an adverse effect.
There are various methods to hedge currency risk, which can be broadly categorised as internal
techniques and external techniques. External techniques include the use of forwards, futures, financial swaps
and options and other derivatives. All of them serve the same purpose i.e. hedging. However, the effectiveness
of each of them depends on the certainty with which one is able to forecast the currency rates for the relevant
period.
The internal techniques that help in managing the currency risk include netting, currency of invoice, leading and
lagging. Out of the above-mentioned tools, the selection of the currency in which to invoice the exports and
imports can be difficult. The exporter or the importer can gain depending on the currency of the invoice.
Diagram 3: Techniques of foreign currency management
4.2 Internal techniques
1. Currency of invoice
Theoretically, a firm chooses an invoice currency based on which currency maximises the expected profits in
the presence of uncertainty. Due to uncertainty regarding the variation in the home-currency, the exporting firm
sets the price prior to knowing the exchange rate for that period. Additionally, the firm has two choices:
setting the export price at the foreign-currency equivalent of their domestic sales price, or
setting the export price in local currency terms.
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If possible, the firm can choose a third country’s currency for invoicing, if uncertainty / volatility is lower in the
third country’s currency as compared to the home currency or the foreign currency. To put it differently, if the
exchange rate volatility between the trading partner’s currency and the home currency is higher, the home firm
will price its exports in the third country’s currency rather than in the home currency.
Miller Plc, a US-based exporter of white goods, can invoice for a transaction of US$1,000,000 in either US$ or
EUR. At the date of this invoice, US$/EUR is 1.0065. So, Miller Plc could either invoice EUR 993,542 or
US$1,000,000.
After 3 months, when the invoice is paid, Miller Plc will always receive US$1,000,000, whether the rate has
changed or not, if the invoice was in US$. However, if Miller Plc had invoiced in EUR, then the amount of dollars
they would ultimately receive after three months is dependent on the change in the EUR rate against the US$.
So, if the US$/EUR rate is 1.0025, then Miller Plc would only receive US$991,064 once converted from EUR.
So Miller Plc would actually receive US$8,936 less by invoicing in EUR.
Costs associated
In case the currency of invoice is not chosen properly, an exporting firm may stand to lose an amount equal to
the depreciation in the currency chosen, In the example of Miller Plc, the firm would receive $8,936 less by
invoicing in EUR, thereby representing the cost of incorrect choice of the currency invoice.
2. Netting and matching
In international cash management, both netting and matching help to reduce currency flows, the risks of
exposure to exchange rate movements and the costs of international financial transactions. Netting permits
existing risk exposure positions to be adjusted by taking on offsetting contracts with the same counterparty.
Netting involves two companies in the same group netting off the currency amounts that they owe to each other.
The net amount of the debt between the companies needs to be paid through an intra company netting
arrangement only. In fact, it may happen that no cash changes hands and the transactions are simply treated as
bookkeeping entries. Matching can be used to minimise foreign currency transactions and risk exposures
between member companies in a group and also with third parties.
Netting is a process where debit balances are netted off against credit balances, so that only the net amounts
remain to be paid in actual currency flows.
This implies that instead of having a two-way flow of money - for receiving and paying - only the net amount is
paid. The objective of netting is to offset the expected loss in one currency exposure by the likely gain in
another. This is a technique used to hedge FOREX exposures. In order for netting to be conducted effectively, it
is important that the settlement dates of the contracts match each other and the foreign currency involved is the
same for the receipts and the payments that are due.
Types of netting
(a) Bilateral netting
This netting is between two parties wherein the lower balances are netted off against the higher balances, and
the remainder is paid or received. Bilateral netting involves two companies within a group of companies. It is
easy to operate and does not require the intervention of a central treasury function.
Consider a UK company with a US subsidiary. The UK company expects to pay $2m to a supplier in one
month’s time, whereas the US subsidiary expects to receive $5m in one month’s time as payment for goods
supplied. In this case, the net exposure of $3m to be received in one month’s time ($5m - $2m) can be identified
and hedged externally. This will be cheaper than the UK company and its US subsidiary hedging their respective
currency exposures of $2m and $5m independently.
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Diagram 4: Bilateral netting
The above diagram indicates that the parent company M can make payments to and receive payments from
each of the three subsidiaries, N, P and O. However, the subsidiaries cannot make payments to or receive
payments from each other. This process is bilateral netting since it involves a two-way flow of funds.
(b) Multilateral netting
Multilateral netting involves netting among more than two parties; using a clearing-house or central exchange
(usually some form of centralised treasury function). Multilateral netting is practised among multinational
corporations that have many subsidiaries in the same group. The arrangement is generally coordinated by the
group’s treasury operations department, at its group headquarters. Multilateral netting has an advantage over
bilateral netting in that it reduces a higher credit exposure than bilateral netting.
Diagram 5: Multilateral netting
In the above diagram, the subsidiaries can make payments to and receive payments from each other as well as
to / from the parent company thereby resulting in multilateral netting.
Advantages of netting
Netting is advantageous for companies that carry out a large volume of transactions within the group since it
results in the reduction of a large number of individual positions or obligations to a smaller number of positions
or obligations, by settling the inter-company debt for the net amount owed.
The benefits offered by netting are:
Netting reduces the banking transaction costs by saving the buy / sell spreads in the spot and forward
markets (i.e. it avoids unnecessary hedging costs).
It reduces the credit risk and the liquidity risk.
With the use of Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) in the netting process, a company could settle its intragroup transactions in minutes thereby saving considerable time.
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Disadvantages of netting
Although netting is effective in reducing credit risk and liquidity risk, it has a legal risk. This is because the
netting agreement may not be legally enforceable in all the countries. Each type of netting has different
degrees of enforceability in the event of default.
Certain countries may put exchange control restrictions on netting which need to be carefully considered by
the companies before framing their netting policy.
The dates of settlement of the contracts and the foreign currency involved may not match. In such cases
netting may not work.
Costs associated with netting
The following are the costs associated with an arrangement of netting:
The accounting and other administrative departments of the companies/subsidiaries participating in the
process of netting need to have proper systems in place which would decide the basis of settling various
transactions (for example, a system embedded into the accounting systems of the concerned companies
which would split a cluster of netted transactions into individual payments and receipts).
Setting up such systems would involve significant capital outlays. The amount of capital allotted for such
systems should be justified and in line with the long term goal of the participating organisation.
Apart from setting up systems which would efficiently calculate individual receipts and payment amounts,
the netted exposures of the participating companies need to be continuously monitored and controlled.
Setting up and maintaining monitoring systems would also require capital outlay.
In addition to the above, firms also need to consider the fees charged by commercial netting services.
Explain the various netting techniques used by firms to manage risk.
Matching
An organisation can either reduce or eliminate its foreign exchange risk by matching its receipts in foreign
currency with its payments in the same foreign currency. Under the matching concept we try to match the
currency of the assets with the currency of the liabilities which fund them – therefore a US dollar asset is
typically funded in US dollars, a Euro liability is offset by an asset in Euros. This avoids profits and losses arising
from retranslation at the prevailing exchange rates.
3. Leading and lagging
This technique uses the adjustment at the time of payments that are made in foreign currencies. Leading is the
payment of an obligation before the due date while lagging is delaying the payment of an obligation past the due
date. The purpose of these techniques is to enable the company to take advantage of expected devaluation or
revaluation of the appropriate currencies. Lead and lag payments are particularly useful when forward contracts
are not possible.
Therefore leading and lagging are methods which try to equate foreign exchange assets and liabilities by
speeding up or slowing down receivables or payables. An advantage of these techniques is that they avoid
unnecessary hedging costs. A limitation of these techniques is that appropriate matches may not be available.
In the case of the lagging technique, if not approved by a third party, it may bring down the credit rating of the
entity. Leading and lagging can be intra-company (within the same company) and inter-company (involving
independent firms).
Cost consideration: Leading and lagging is wholly based on the future exchange rate expectations, and if the
expectations are not met, the technique may add to costs, rather than reducing them.
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4. Asset and liability management
Under this approach, a firm should deploy procedures to manage asset and liabilities in such a way that it will
minimise foreign currency risk. It may use a combination of the above-mentioned techniques to achieve this
objective. If an entity has a receivable in one foreign currency and also has payables in the same foreign
currency, it should try to arrange the entire settlement in such a way that the loss on account of exchange
fluctuation will be minimised or eliminated, for instance using netting or leading and lagging techniques or any
other method.
External techniques: The external techniques and their related costs have been discussed in Study Guide E2
of this Study Text.
Answers to Test Yourself
Answer to TY 1
The net interest income is interest income minus interest expense.
Interest received £200 x 8%
Interest paid £ 150 x6%
Net interest income
=
=
=
£16 million
£9 million
£7 million
Measurement in Tshs before devaluation
Interest received £16million x Tshs2,600
Interest paid £9million x Tshs2,600
Net interest income
=
=
=
Tshs41,600million
Tshs23,400million
Tshs18,200million
=
=
=
Tshs40,000million
Tshs22,500million
Tshs17,500million
Measurement in Tshs after devaluation
Interest received £16million x Tshs2,500
Interest paid £9million x Tshs2,500
Net interest income
The assets were worth Tshs520 billion (£200m/Tshs2,600) before depreciation, but after devaluation they are
worth only Tshs500billion (£200m /Tshs2700). The liabilities were worth Tshs390 billion prior to depreciation,
but they are worth only Tshs375billion after devaluation. Since assets declined by Tshs20billion and liabilities by
Tshs15billion, the net worth declined by Tshs5billion using the end of the year spot rates.
Answer to TY 2
When a firm buys a financial asset, it is taking a “long position”. This exposes the firm to risk if the returns
from the asset are uncertain. On the other hand, if the firm has sold an asset, it is taking a “short position”,
and this too exposes the firm to a risk. The principle underlying hedging is to hedge a risk by offsetting a
long position by a corresponding short position or offsetting a short position by a corresponding long
position.
Answer to TY 3
Asset Liability Management (ALM) is a risk-management principle that is often applied in private financial
institutions. ALM states that, as far as possible, the entire SOFP, i.e. both assets and liabilities, should be
included in the risk analysis, in order to compile the overall exposure. This makes it possible to limit the risk by
matching the financial characteristics of respective assets and liabilities, so that one side of the SOFP hedges
the other side. Banks accept deposits on which they have to pay interest (liabilities/ expense) and give loans on
which they receive interest (assets/income). Banks need to manage the interest rate risk, which can lead to a
mismatch of assets and liabilities. Volatile interest rates compound the problem of the banks.
The bank’s net interest margin i.e. the difference between the rate that it pays on deposits and the rate that it
receives on its loans and securities, is a function of interest rate sensitivity and the volume and mix of its assets
and liabilities. Generally, banks borrow short term and lend long term, which leads to a mismatch that it needs to
address through restructuring of assets and liabilities or using derivatives such as swaps, options and futures to
match the imbalance and reduce the risk.
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Answer to TY 4
Bilateral netting: this netting is between two parties wherein the lower balances are netted off against the
higher balances, and the remainder is paid or received.
Bilateral netting involves two companies within a group of companies. It is easy to operate and does not require
the intervention of a central treasury function.
Multilateral netting: Multilateral netting involves netting among more than two parties; using a clearing-house
or central exchange (usually some form of centralised treasury function). Multilateral netting is practised among
multinational corporations that have many subsidiaries in the same group. The arrangement is generally
coordinated by the group’s treasury operations department, at its group headquarters.
Multilateral netting has an advantage over bilateral netting in that it reduces a higher credit exposure than
bilateral netting.
Quick Quiz
1. The
A
B
C
D
model is used for pricing futures contracts.
Black and Scholes
Cost of carry
Miller
Time value
2. Two persons agree to exchange 100 grams of gold three months later at $400 per gram. This is an example
of a:
A
B
C
D
Forward contract
Futures contract
Spot contract
None of the above
3. On 15 January, Jack Ltd bought a Eurodollar futures contract (expiring on 25 January), which cost €28,730.
The initial margin was €2,000. Each Eurodollar futures contract is for delivery of €20,000. On 25 January,
the exchange rate closed at $1.5780 per €. How much profit or loss did he make?
A
B
C
D
+ €2,834
– €2,500
– €2,834
+ €2,500
4. An OTC derivative product is a standardised product. True/ False
Answers to Quick Quiz
1. The correct option is B.
2. The correct option is A.
3. Jack bought one futures contract costing €28,730 at a market lot of 20,000. This means €1.4363 was paid
per Eurodollar future. On the futures expiration date, the futures price converges to the spot price. If the
exchange rate closed at $1.5780 per €, this must be the futures close price as well. Hence Jack will have
made profit of (1.5780 – 1.4363) x 20,000. Therefore, the correct answer is A.
4. False.OTC derivative contracts are bilateral derivative contracts as they involve two parties. Each OTC
contract is custom-designed and hence is unique in terms of contract size, expiry date, asset type and
quality.
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Self Examination Questions
Question 1
Included in the debtors of ARG Co is an expected receipt of $500,000 payable in three months’ time. The
following exchange rates are available:
$/£
Spot
1.7642–1.7962
Three months forward 1.7855–1.8174
Explain why ARG Co might wish to hedge its expected three-month dollar receipt using the forward market and
calculate the sterling value arising from a forward market hedge.
Question 2
IBC Corp is required to make a payment of $300,000 in six months’ time. On 1 January the company is
considering the various choices it has to hedge its transaction exposure. The finance manager has collected the
following information:
Exchange rates
$ spot rate per £ 1.5617-1.5773
6 month $ forward rate 1.5455-1.5609
Money market rates
US$
Sterling
Borrow
%
6
7
Deposit
%
4.5
5.5
By making appropriate calculations, decide which of the following hedges is most attractive to IBC Corp:
(a) Forward market
(b) Money market
Question 3
The CEO of Autocrat Plc is reviewing the company's interest rate and currency risk strategies for the next few
months. There has recently been considerable political instability with some countries showing signs of moving
towards economic recession whilst others are still showing steady growth. Both interest rates and currency rates
could become more volatile for many major trading countries.
Autocrat is expected to borrow £6.5 million for a period of six months commencing in six months’ time. The
company also needs to make a US$ payment of $4·3 million in 3 months’ time.
Assume that it is now 1 December. Futures and options contracts may be assumed to expire at the end of the
relevant month, and the company may be assumed to be able to borrow at the 3 month LIBOR rate.
LIFFE futures prices (£500,000 contract size)
March
June
95·56
95·29
LIFFE options on futures prices, £500,000 contract size. Premiums are annual %
95250
95500
95750
CALLS
PUTS
March
June
March
0.445
0.545
0.085
0.280
0.390
0.170
0.165
0.265
0.305
June
0.185
0.280
0.405
308 ©Managing
Risk
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Managing Risk: 581
Foreign exchange rates
Spot
$1.4692 - 1.4735/£
3 month forward
$1.4632 - 1.4668/£
Currency option prices
Philadelphia Stock Exchange $/£ options, contract size £31,250, premiums are cents per £.
1.450
1.460
1.470
CALLS
PUTS
March
April
March
3.12
1.56
2.55
2.95
1.99
2.14
2.51
April
2.51
-
Three month LIBOR is currently4·5%
Required:
(a) If the interest rates increase by 0.75% in six months’ time, illustrate the possible results of:
(i) futures hedge; and
(ii) options hedge
Recommend which hedge should be selected and explain why there might be uncertainty as to the results of the
hedges.
(b) Illustrate and discuss the possible outcomes of forward market and currency options hedges if possible
currency rates in three months' time are either:
(i) $1.4350 -$1.4386/£ or
(ii) $1.4780 -$1.4820/£.
Answers to Self Examination Questions
Answer to SEQ 1
ARG Co intends to protect the sterling value of its expected dollar receipt. It is clear from the quoted forward
rates mentioned in the question that the dollar is expected to weaken against the Sterling. This means that the
sterling value of $500,000 dollars could decline in three months. ARG Co can enter into a forward exchange
contract with its bank to exchange its expected dollar receipt in three months time at the current forward rate.
This would protect the company against any further deterioration in the sterling-dollar exchange rate. The
sterling value arising from the contract will be $500,000/1.8174 = £275,118.
Answer to SEQ 2
(a) If forward contract cover is taken, the cost is $300,000/1.5455 = £194,112
(b) Creating a money market hedge:
Step 1
Determine the amount in $ that needs to be borrowed now that will yield enough interest over the next 6 months
to pay off the foreign debt.
The rate of interest on US deposits is 4.5%
For a 6 month period this equates to 4.5/2 = 2.25%
The amount of $ needed = $300,000/1.0225 = $293,399
Managing
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Answer to SEQ 3
(a) Futures hedge
Autocrat plc needs to borrow in six months’ time, and wishes to protect against an increase in interest rates
during the next six months. To do this it will sell June futures contracts.
£6,500,000 6
x = 26 contracts at 95.29
£500,000 3
(As the period at risk is six months, the number of contracts is doubled, i.e.6/3)
Basis is 95·29 – 95·50 = (0·21%) (futures price – cash price (100 – 4.5))
At the end of June when the contracts mature, basis will be 0. There are seven months until the maturity date. In
six months’ time when Autocrat needs to borrow the expected basis is:
1
0.21% x = 0.03%
7
This assumes a linear decline in the basis.
If the interest rate increases by 0.75%, LIBOR will move to 5·25% and the expected futures price is 94·75 – 0·03
=94·72
(100 – LIBOR) – 0.03).
Cash market: The extra cost of a 0·75% increase in interest is: £6,500,000 x 0·75% x 0·5 (six months) =
£24,375
(the tick value is £500,000
Futures market: Sell 26 June contracts at 95.29
x ·01% x 3/12 = £12·50)
Futures market: Buy 26 June contracts at 94.72
Futures market: Gain is 57 ticks (basis points) x £12.50 x 26 contracts = £18,525
The effective overall cost is:
Cash market borrow £6,500,000 at 5.25% for six months = £170,625
(Less) futures gain of £18,525 = £152,100. This is an annual interest rate of 4.68%.
The futures contract effectively locks into the futures rate (4·71%), less the expected basis of 0·03%, or overall
interest rate of 4·68%, not the current cash market rate (4·5%). However, the 4·68% rate is not certain as the
futures price in six months’ time might not be 94·72 because there might not be a linear decline in basis, i.e.
basis risk might exist.
(If the company wished to protect against changes in the current cash market rate it would need to sell more
contracts in order to generate a high enough expected profit).
Options hedge
Autocrat plc would need to buy June put options on futures.
95250
95500
95750
Strike price
(£6,500,000 x 0.185% x 6/12)
Premium cost
(£6,500,000 x 0.280% x 6/12)
£9,100.50
(£6,500,000 x 0.405% x 6/12)
£6,012.50
£13,162.50
(alternatively the premium may be estimated using basis points multiplied by the tick value for the contract and
number of contracts, e.g. 18·5 x £12.50 x 26 = £6,012.5)
If interest rates increase by 0.75% the options will be exercised (or sold if there is any time value left) and the
futures contracts closed out to make a profit.
310 ©Managing
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This expected profit would be the exercise price at which futures could be sold, less the expected futures price
in six months, multiplied by 100%, the tick value and the number of contracts
Exercise price
(95·25 – 94·72) x 100 x 26 x £12·5
(95·50 – 94·72) x 100 x 26 x £12·5
(95·75 – 94·72) x 100 x 26 x £12·5
95250
95500
95750
95250
95500
95750
Profit
£17,225
£25,350
£33,475
Exercise price
£170,625 – £17,225 + £6,012·5
£170,625 – £25,350 + £9,100
£170,625 – £33,475 + £13,162·5
Overall cost
£159,412.50
£154,375.00
£150,312.50
The 95750 exercise price has the lowest overall cost, with a worst case effective interest rate of 4·625%, which
is better than the futures rate. It is therefore the recommended hedge. However, the spot futures price at the
time when the option would be exercised / sold is not certain. If interest rates were to fall rather than increase
the option could be allowed to lapse (or sold for time value if any) and advantage taken of the lower cash market
borrowing rates.
(b) Outcome of using a forward market:
Since, a payment of $4.3 million dollars is due, using forward market hedge:
Autocrat plc can buy dollars three months forward. Therefore, the pounds required to buy dollars will be equal to
Buy $ three months forward
$4,300,000
= £2,938,764
1.4632
Outcome of using options hedge: For purchasing dollars, March put options on pounds should be bought.
This is because, the contracts are Sterling options, March put option contracts should be used, as they are the
closest maturity date after the date of the transaction which is 1 March.
Number of contracts:
$4,300,000/1.45 £2,965,517/31,250 94.90 or 95 contracts
Contract Value
(£2,968,750)
$4,300,000/1.46 £2,945,205/31,250 94.25 or 94 contracts
(£2,937,500)
$4,300,000/1.47 £2,925,170/31,250 93.61 or 94 contracts
(£2,937,500)
Option premiums
Premium
1.45
1.56 cents x £2,968,750 = $46,312/1.4692
£31,522
1.46
1.99 cents x £2,937,500 = $58,456/1.4692
£39,788
1.47
2.51 cents x £2,937,500 = $73,731/1.4692
£50,185
Spot Rate
The Sterling cost is estimated using the spot rate since the option premium is payable upfront.
The possible three-month spot rates for the purchase of dollars are:
(i) $1.4350/£
(ii) $1.4780/£
If the spot rate moves to $1.4350/£ all of the options would be exercised.
1.45 £2,968,750 x 1.45 = $4,304,687
The excess $4,687 could be sold forward at 1.4668/£.
1.46 £2,937,500 x 1.46 = $4,288,750
$11,250 could be bought forward at $1.4632/£.
1.47 £2,937,500 x 1.47 = $4,318,125
Managing
Risk: 311
© GTG
584 : Managing Risk
The excess of $18,125 could be sold forward at $1.4668/£.
Total costs
1·45
£2,968,750 – £3,195 + £31,522
£2,997,077
1·46
£2,937,500 + £7,689 + £39,788
£2,984,977
1·47
£2,937,500 – £12,357 + £50,185
£2,975,328
All of the above mentioned are dearer than the forward market.
In case the spot rate moves to $1.4780, then none of the options would be exercised. The expected surplus or
shortfall in dollars, resulting from the amount at risk not being equal to an exact number of currency option
contracts, would still have been sold / bought using forward contracts.
The resulting surplus dollars would be required to be sold, or shortfall in dollars would be required to be
purchased to fulfil the forward contracts.
$4,300,000 at spot of $1.4780/£ = £2,909,337
1·45
1·46
£2,909,337 + £31,522 + £3,171 ($4,687 bought at spot of 1.4780)
£2,909,337 + £39,788 – £7,591 ($11,250 surplus at spot of 1.4820)
£2,944,030
£2,941,534
1·47
£2,909,337 + £50,185 + £12,263 ($18,125 bought at 1.4780)
£2,971,785
The above mentioned are still dearer than the forward contract. The spot price of the dollar in three months' time
would have to weaken further in order for the options to be the cheaper hedge.
Step 2
Borrow the equivalent amount in sterling, convert to dollars and place on US deposit.
Sterling requirement (at spot) = $293,399/1.5617 = £187,871
Convert to dollars and place on US deposit.
Step 3
Repay sterling loan plus interest
6 month rate on sterling borrowing = 7%/2 = 3.5%
Total sterling repayment (and cost of hedging strategy) = £187,871 x 1.035 = £194,446
In this case, the forward contract is marginally cheaper at £194,112 compared to the money market hedge of
£194,446.
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Managing Risk