Banting, K. G. (1997). The internationalization of the social contract. In T. J . Courchene, (Ed.), The nation state in a global/information era: Policy challenges (pp. 255–285). John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy, Queens University. The Internationalization of the Social Contract Keith G. Banting Introduction One of the central realities of the late twentieth century is the tension between the emerging international economic order and the social contract established 1 in Western nations earlier in the centwy. This tension has spawned critical questions for social policy advocates throughout the Western world. Is it possible to engage fully in the global economy, and still preserve distinctive national approaches to the social contract? Or are competitive economic pressures narrowing the degrees of freedom enjoyed by the nation state, and driving advanced democracies inexorably towards a harmonized model of social policy? The debate over these questions has been passionate. As always, however, reality is more complex than the polarities of political rhetoric. This paper argues that globalization and technological change have placed the postwar social contract under enormous strain, and that a new social contract is slowly emerging. The contours of this new social contract, however, are not those anticipated in more alarmist predictions. 'This paper builds on Banting (1995; Social 1996; and programs continue to 1997). 1 would like to thank Kate Brown and Shelley Pilon for excellent research assistance. 255 command a significant portion of the national resources of OECD nations, and there is little evidence that pressures for harmonization are pushing Western nations towards a standardized, transnational model. Governments cannot insulate their societies from international pressures, but global pressures do not dictate the ways in which governments respond. Differences in domestic politics, cultures and policy legacies shape the ways in which countries are ad­ justing to the global economy, and the burden of adjustment is being allocated in different ways around the globe. Politics within nation states continue to matter. Understanding the nature of the emerging social contract therefore requires greater nuance in analysis. More specifically, it requires closer atten­ tion to the changing balance among the basic goals of social policy, and to changes in the design of social programs. This paper pursues this strategy for the particular case of Canada. As in other OECD nations, social expenditures continue to represent a growing share of the nation's resources, and Canada continues to chart a distinctive course from that of the United States. Within these parameters, however, the balance among the goals that defined the postwar social contract- security, redistribution and social integration - ar e changing in powerful ways. The transition to a new social contract is incomplete, and many of our social programs reflect an uneasy compromise between old and new. But the outlines of the future can be discerned. At the heart of the transition is a changing definition of the concept of "security, and of the ways in which security can be enhanced in a world defined by pervasive change. In developing this interpretation, the paper proceeds through international and Canadian perspectives. The first section explores the international context and its implications for the development of social programs in OECD nations during both the postwar era and in the contemporary period. The second section then nuns to Canadian experience in more detail, examining the nature of the social contract established during the decades after the Second World War, and tracing the contours of the new social contract that is emerging in the context of a global economy. The final section summarizes the argument, and reflects on the major challenges that will define the Canadian social contract in the early years of the next century. 256 Keith G. Banting The International Order and the Social Contract Since the dawn of the state system in Europe in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, each state has existed at the intersection between the international order and its own domestic society. In the words of Theda Skocpol, the state "is fundamentally Janus-faced, with an intrinsically dual anchorage in domestic society and tlie international system" (1979, p. 32). Inevitably, the state must mediate and balance pressures emerging from these two domains. In part, each state seeks to protect domestic interests from external pressures, seeking to nudge as best it can the rules and practices governing the international system in directions congenial to the interests of its own society. But, in part, the state also conveys pressures emanating from the wider global context to domestic society, adapting public policy to international conditions that it cannot alter and helping domestic interests to adjust to the world beyond its borders. The evolution of the social contract has long been shaped by this Janus-faced character of the state, as a comparison of the postwar era and the contemporary period reveals. During the postwar period, the massive growth of international trade and the expansion of social programs were mutually reinforcing (Keohane, 1984; Ruggie, 1983). On the one hand, the GATT was critically important in under­ writing one of the most remarkable periods of economic growth in human history, which in tum swelled public coffers and helped to finance expensive new social commitments. On the other hand, the expansion of the social con­ tract helped open economic borders by reducing potential domestic opposition to trade agreements; in Ruggie's words, "governments asked their publics to embrace the change and dislocation that comes with liberalization in return for the promise of help in containing and socializing the adjustment costs" (Ruggie, 1994, pp. 4-5). This international impulse was reinforced by powerful domestic political constituencies dedicated to the expansion of social programs. Given this coincidence of international and domestic pressures, social spending rose rapidly throughout the OECD, from an average of 1 0 . 1 % of GDP in 1960 to 19.6% in 1980, as Table 1 indicates. The table also confirms that the expansion was broadly spread throughout OECD countries, producing considerable convergence in spending on social programs in this period; the coefficient of variation in social expenditures in OECD countries as a whole fell throughout this period, as did the ratio of the highest to the lowest expenditure levels. Clearly, convergence is not simply a recent phenomenon. The Internationalization of the Social Contract 257 Table 1 : Convergence in Social Expenditures among OECD Countries, 1960-1980 Public Expenditure on Social Programs as Percentage of GDP 1960 1964 1968 1972 1974 1980 Average 10.1 1 1. 9 13 . 1 15.1 18.6 19.6 Coefficient 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.34 0.31 0.30 4.47 3.51 3.70 3.76 3.28 2.75 of variation Ratio H/L Source: Calculated from data provided in OECD (1994b, Table la). In terms of social spending at least, the advanced industrial nations were more similar at the end of the period of rapid social policy expansion than at the beginning. Nevertheless, individual states clearly enjoyed considerable degrees of : freedom to design their social contracts in light of national cultures and idomestic political interests. This was especially the case in larger countries that did not depend heavily on international trade. Smaller countries with comparatively open economies were inevitably more sensitive to global pressures even then, and many of them adopted more expansive social programs in part as a means of cushioning workers and their economies more generally from economic shocks originating outside their borders (Cameron, 1978; Katzenstein, 1984; 1985). Overall, however, this period clearly gave national policymakers considerable scope to design their social programs. The result was a rich diversity in national approaches to the social needs of a modem society, and analysts seeking to understand the social contract of that era tended to focus exclusively on the domestic political coalitions that gave rise to more or less expansive systems of social policy (Esping-Andersen, 1990). The 1980s and 1990s have reminded us with a jolt of the dual anchorage of the social contract It is commonplace to observe that we are living through a period of dramatic international change. The globalization of markets for 258 Keith G. Banting goods, services and finance is shifting the nature of the international economy "from exchanges among a set of inter-linked national economies to exchanges within an integrated global economy" (Hart, 1996, p. 2). The sources of this transition have been well discussed elsewhere: the opening of economic borders by the GATT, the WTO and regional trading blocs; advances in communications and transportation that have reduced historic barriers of time and space; the emergence of Third World nations as highly competitive sources of sophisticated products; and the increasingly international produc­ tion strategies of multinational enterprises. The impact of globalization has been reinforced by wider technological innovations, which have triggered sweeping changes in the production and distribution of goods and services. The combined effect of globalization and technological innovation has been a painful restructuring of the economies of Western nations. Globalization and technological change have broken the comfortable symbiosis between the international economy and the welfare state that pre­ vailed during the postwar era. Governments in Western nations face powerful but contradictory pressures. On one side, they confront pressures for higher spending, much of which flows directly from economic restructuring. Higher unemployment, especially long-term unemployment, drives up the cost of unemployment and related benefits; and individual citizens, industries and regions seek new forms of protection from global competition or help in adapting to it. On the other side, globalization and technological change simultaneously weaken the capacity of policymakers to respond. Governments are under pressure to redesign social programs in ways that remove rigidities in the labour market, enhance flexibility in the domestic economy, and reduce the :fiscal burdens on the public treasury. In addition, many countries have felt a need to lower the tax and regulatory burden on production in order to remain competitive with other trading nations. Economic theory may suggest that flexibility in exchange rates can compensate for differentials in production costs, thereby preserving scope for distinctive national policy choices. But in the hard world of politics, domestic business interests complain bitterly if they believe their taxes and regulatory costs are higher than those of their inter­ national competitors. Considerable analytical effort has been devoted to distinguishing between the separate effects of trade liberalization on one hand and technological change on the other. However, for current purposes, they are seen as interwoven causes of economic restructuring. The Internationalization of the Social Contract 259 In principle, the tension between the international economy and the social contract inherited from the postwar generation might be eased in one of two ways. The first strategy is to alter the rules governing international trade to ensure that it operates on terms more compatible with the social aspirations of the postwar social contract. The second strategy is to adapt the postwar social contract to the dynamics of an integrated global economy. The problem confronting the first strategy is to find a means of reasserting democratic control over the market in a manner appropriate to a global economy (Hart, 1996, p. 6). Although there has been considerable debate over how this might be done, practical efforts have been relatively weak so far. Some international trading agreements have incorporated elements relevant to labour relations and environmental policy. In Europe, the Maastricht proposals for a single market prompted the adoption of a social charter, establishing standards for labour relations across the countries of the Community; and the debate over NAFTA in the United States led to side deals on labour standards and environmental regulation. In one sense, the NAFTA side deals in particular can be seen as placing developing nations on notice that in the future the price for more complete access to the markets of the first world will be protection for the social dimensions of state activity. This message was further underscored at the last moment of the Uruguay Round when the United States and France pushed for the addition of a "social dumping" clause to the GATT. However, the reality is that, so far, these elements of trade agreements have been relatively minor, and have not focused on social programs as such. As a result, the primary response of Western industrial nations has been to adapt the social contracts that they established in the postwar period to the pressures emanating from the global economy. Virtually every government has had to struggle with powerful pressures on social expenditures resulting from global economic restructuring, as well as aging populations, exploding health costs and growing public deficits. Virtually every government has made painful changes in its benefit and tax regimes. It is worth noting, however, that the historic upward trend in social spending continued into the 1990s. Average social expenditures as a proportion of GDP in OECD countries stabilized at about 20% in the mid-1980s, but had moved to 24.6% by 1993 (OECD, 1996a). Undoubtedly, the period of rapid growth in social expenditures is over; and even stable expenditures in the face of higher levels of unemploy­ ment in most countries and aging populations everywhere suggests an erosion of the generosity and strength of social protection systems. Moreover, a number of OECD countries have made more substantial reductions in social spending during the mid-1990s that are not yet captured by the comparative 260 Keith G. Banting data Nevertheless, the social contract still represents a substantial portion of the resources of Western nations. The broad pattern of convergence in the social expenditures of OECD nations established in the postwar era has also continued. As Table 2 indicates, the coefficient variation and the ratio of the highest to the lowest expenditure levels continued to fall over the decade. It is important, however, not to overestimate the pervasiveness of hannonization. Convergence in social expenditures is strongest within the European Community, where additional political factors are at work. The detennination to build an ever closer union generates imperatives that go beyond those implicit in the global economy alone. The advent of the single market in 1992 led not only to the social charter, but also to the adoption by member states of a resolution in favour of a voluntary strategy of convergence in social protection policies (Commission of the European Communities, 1992). More recently, the pressures have been reinforced by the fiscal criteria for member states wishing to join the economic and monetary union (EMU) in 1999. Given the political support for an ever Table 2: Convergence in Social Expenditures among OECD Countries, 1980-1993 Public Expenditure on Social Programs as Percentage of GDP 1980 1983' 1986' 1989' 1991 19933 Average 19.52 21.29 21.48 21.42 23.11 25.74 Coefficient 0.32 0.30 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.26 2.80 2.67 2.57 2.57 2.84 2.43 of variation Ratio H/L Notes: 1 2 Excludes Austria. 1980-1989 data for West Germany; 1991 and 1993 data for united Germany. 3 Excludes Australia, Belgium, Japan and New Zealand. AII data excludes Switzerland, Mexico and Turkey. Source: OECD (1996a). The Internationalization of the Social Contract 261 closer union in much of Europe, it is perhaps not surprising that convergence in social expenditures is strongest here. Even within the European Union, a closer look allays some fears about the withering effects of wider economic integration. First, the convergence of expenditures among the countries of the Union has been due more to the considerable increases in the spending of southern countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal than to a slowing of spending in northern Europe. As Tables 3A and 3B reveal, ihe pattern of convergence in expenditure levels slows considerably when the three southern countries are removed from the set. Second, underneath slow convergence in expenditure levels lies continuing diversity in the design of social programs, which is clearly rooted in the history and political cultures of the member states. From the outset the Commission accepted that "it would be unrealistic to think of blending them into a single Community system" (ibid., p. 7); and a subsequent study by the European Commission could find no consistent pattern of convergence implicit in the program adjustments of the 1980s. "There has certainly been convergence of the problems to be solved, ... [but] there is no clear evidence of convergence of social protection systems in the Community in the 1980's (Commission of the European Communities, 1994, p. 9). A wider perspective also suggests that different nations are adjusting to the global economy differently, and the costs of change have been allocated differently. The often noted contrast between Europe and the United States is striking. Much of Europe retains a strong social contract, built on widespread unionization, extensive regulation of labour markets, and generous social security. These systems have tended to protect people already in work, and polarization of earnings is much Jess marked in continental Europe. But these countries have also experienced slow rates of job creation and very high unemployment rates. Young people and other first-time job seekers are facing immense difficulty breaking into the Jabour market; and older, displaced workers find it very difficult to reenter employment. In the United States, however, lower levels of unionization, flexible labour markets and weak social protection have contributed to a different pattern of adjustment. Employment growth has been strong, including in the low-wage sector, and the unemploy­ ment rate is low by European standards. However, the U.S. pattern has been marked by a widening polarization of wages, with low-skilled workers On the contrast between the patterns of adjustment in Europe and the United States, see Commission of the European Communities (1993); OECD (1994a); and Blank (1994). 262 Keith G. Banting Table 3A: Convergence in Social Expenditures among European Union Countries, 1980-1993 Public Expenditure on Social Programs as Percentage of GDP 1980 1983 1986 1989 1991 199323 Average 21.06 23.20 22.95 22.49 23.67 24.88 Coefficient 0.29 0.26 0.22 0.22 0.20 0.22 2.64 2.62 2.24 2 .1 9 1.96 1.89 of variation Ratio H/L Notes: 1980-89 data for West Germany; 1991 and 1993 data for united Germany. Excludes Belgium. Source: OECD (1996a). Table 3B: Convergence in Social Expenditures among Selected European Union Countries, 1980-1993 Public Expenditure on Social Programs as Percentage of GDP 1980 1983 1986 1989 1991 19933 Average 23.74 25.90 25.26 24.50 25.70 27.20 Coefficient 0.17 0.15 0 .1 1 0.15 0. 1 3 0.15 1.57 1.50 1.35 1. 5 1 1.44 1.54 of variation Ratio H/L Notes: • Excludes Portugal, Spain and Greece. '1980-89 data for West Germany; 1991 and 1993 data for united Germany. 2 Excludes Belgium. Source: OECD (1996a). The Internationalization of the Social Contract 263 experiencing a significant fall in real wages during the 1980s and 1990s. This has fed into a wider pattern of growing income inequality, which is now more marked than in any other OECD nation. Neither of these pathways is without problems, and both generate strains on the fabric of society. From the per­ spective of a low-skilled worker, the choice between unemployment in Europe and poverty wages in the United States may not seem particularly appealing. Nevertheless, there are obviously different pathways in adjusting to the new economic order. Two conclusions stand out from this discussion. First, the experience within the European Union and the contrast between Europe and the United States stand as cautions against the assumption that economic integration necessitates policy harmonization. Each country must adjust to international pressures, but the global economy does not dictate the ways in which each country responds. Policy is also shaped by domestic politics, and different countries are responding to a changing world according to the rhythms of their domestic politics and cultures. The process is painful, and the quality of social protection established in the postwar period is declining. But the result is unlikely to be a harmonized international model of social policy. Second, the impact of globaliza 'on on the social contract and the allocation of the costs of change cannot be understood by focusing exclusively on aggregate patterns of social expenditures or the extent of convergence among industrial nations. To concentrate here alone is to miss most of the action. The full impact of globalization and technological change can only be understood by a closer analysis of substantive changes in social programs and the underlying objectives that breathe life into them. The following section therefore turns to more detailed examination of the evolution of the Canadian social contract. The Evolving Canadian Social Contract A full understanding of the implications of globalization and technological change for the Canadian social contract requires an initial examination of the objectives that underpinned the social programs established the postwar era, and an analysis of the ways in which they are evolving in the context of a global economy. 264 Keith G. Banting The Postwar Social Contract Canadian experience parallels the broad international trends reasonably closely. Social spending as a proportion of GDP rose from 9 . 1 % in 1960 to 15.0% in 1980 (OECD, 1994b). Although the Canadian orientation towards social policy was influenced by ideas and experience elsewhere, the country developed its own version of the welfare state, and certainly established a distinctive approach from that which prevailed south of the border. The nature of the Canadian social contract can be best understood by examining the balance among three distinct goals that underpinned the design of social programs throughout that period: security, redistribution and social integra­ tion. Security. The primary goal of the postwar social contract was security. Indeed, the development of the welfare state was fundamentally rooted in a quest for security in an insecure world. The touchstone for the builders of the postwar welfare state was their fonnative experience during the depression of the 1930s, with its mass dislocation and widespread economic and social insecurity for entire populations. The basic aim of the social contract was to develop a system that would provide protection against the risks inherent in modem life - unemployment, disability, illness and poverty in old age. This quest for greater security pervaded the Marsh Report, which laid the intellectual foundations for the postwar social agenda. Marsh summed up the case for the welfare state as follows: "The general sense of security which would result from such programs would provide a better life for the great mass of people and a potent antidote to the fears and worries and uncertainties of the times. The post-war world would not have to be anticipated with fear and trepidation" (Marsh, 1943, p. 17). The risks, it is important to note, were considered to confront virtually all Canadians, not just a specific group labelled the "poor", and the most basic purpose of the social contract was to enhance the security of the population as a whole. As a result, the concept of security came to be associated with the idea of universality. The need was for predictability and a right to protection, which were seen as inconsistent with the conditionality and discretionary judgements of the relief programs of the interwar period. Social insurance and demogrants quickly emerged as the primary mechanisms of social security. Social insurance was thought to convey a right to support, in light of the contributions paid by citizens; recipients did not have to feel guilty, and governments would feel politically constrained not to tamper with the benefits. Demogrants were also thought to imply a similar political guarantee, as they would be protected by the interests of middle-income voters as well as the The Internationalization of the Social Contract 265 poor. The actual choice between social insurance and demogrants generated great debate in the middle decades of this century, including on the political left, but both were seen as instruments of security in an uncertain world. Redistribution. In contrast, vertical redistribution through programs targeted specifically on the poor became a secondary goal of the postwar social contract. Much confusion surrounds this issue. In recent debates, there has been a widespread assumption that the primary role of the social programs established in the postwar period was to narrow the gap between rich and poor, and universal programs have often been criticized as inefficient instru­ ments for achieving that goal. In fact, the postwar social contract represented a shift away from vertical redistribution as the primary goal of social policy. Whatever else one might say about the social programs of the interwar period, such as Mothers' Allowances, the 1927 Old Age Pension Act and local relief, they were clearly redistributive. They provided means-tested benefits that were financed from general revenues. In contrast, the universal programs established in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s, shifted redistribution into a hori­ zontal direction: from the employed to the unemployed, from the healthy to the sick, from the non-aged to the aged, from the childless to families with children, and so on. As a secondary feature, universal programs financed through progressive taxes did have a mildly redistributive impact between rich and poor. However, that was not the primary aim. Admittedly, a minor theme in the postwar social agenda was the modernization of selectivity. The traditional forms of relief characteristic of the interwar period were slowly replaced by modem programs. The establish­ ment of the needs test and the professionalization of the administration of .social assistance, which followed the adoption of the Canada Assistance Plan in 1965, represented important advances. In a similar vein, the introduction of the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) for the elderly established the political legitimacy of a selective benefit that is income-tested but ignores assets, establishing a precedent that has become much more important in recent years. During the postwar period, however, such selective programs were seen as distinctly secondary instruments. When the GIS was introduced in 1965, it was presented as a temporary program that would fade away naturally as the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans matured. Similarly, social assistance was seen as playing a limited role. In the words of the March Report, social assistance "does not give security ... ; it might almost be said to sustain insecurity" (Marsh, 1943, p. 60). The entire point of universal social security programs was to protect as many Canadians as possible from having to turn to social assistance. Thus, the postwar social contract can be character­ ized as a flight from selectivity. 266 Keith G. Banting Social integration. Finally, the postwar social contract increasingly came to be seen as an important instrument of social integration. Ever since the introduction of social insurance by Bismarck in the late nineteenth century, the welfare state has been a means of mediating conflicts and preserving stability in divided societies. Bismarck's social programs were part of a larger strategy to incorporate the emerging working class more firmly into the existing social order. In the middle of the twentieth century, the British welfare state was advanced not simply in the name of social justice, but also in the name of "one nation'; universal social programs would erode the distinctions of class and status that otherwise pervaded British society, and entrench the sense of social cohesion that had emerged during the Second World War. Canadian experience reflects Canadian realities. Social programs have been seen, less as a means of moderating class divisions, and more as instru­ ments of linguistic and regional integration. The postwar builders of the welfare state may not have thought of their handiwork particularly in this light. However, as linguistic and regional tensions divided Canadians more deeply in the 1970s and 1980s, the structure of national social programs increasingly came to be seen as the embodiment of a pan-Canadianism that moderated the centrifugal forces straining the federation. The integrative role of the postwar social contract rested on three pillars. The first pillar consisted of federal programs that delivered benefits directly to citizens, such as Family Allowances, Unemployment Insurance, Old Age Security, the Guaranteed Income Supplement, and the Canada Pension Plan. The second pillar was composed of shared-cost programs, which provided federal grants secondary to provincial education and governments social assistance, to support health and care, which sustained post­ a pan­ Canadian approach through a number of conditions attached to the transfers. The third pillar was the system of equalization grants provided by the federal government to poor provinces to enable them to establish public services of average quality without having to resort to above average levels of taxation. In combination these pillars sustained a national social contract which created spheres of shared experience for Canadians, important elements of their lives that they held in common, irrespective of their language or region. Moreover, the explicit and implicit interregional transfers that underpinned this structure represented an affirmation that, among the diverse communities that define us, there is a pan-Canadian community, built on a common social citizenship and a set of rights and obligations that span the continent. Canada thus took advantage of the favourable conjuncture of international and domestic forces in the postwar years to develop its own social contract, which represented a distinctive blend of security, redistribution and social The Internationalization of the Social Contract 267 integration. The version that emerged undoubtedly owed much to the ideas that dominated international debates about social policy during those years. The Beveridge Report, for example, had a major impact on Canadian thinking and on the Marsh Report which followed. Nevertheless, Canada built a welfare state that was rooted fundamentally in Canadian society and its politics, and that differed in significant ways from the system that emerged to the south. The Internationalization of Canada's Social Contract As in other Western countries, the social contract in Canada has undergone a continuing series of adjustments in response to global economic pressures, as well as domestic social changes and the weakness of public revenues. As with OECD nations more generally, the essential changes do not reveal themselves in the broad parameters of the welfare state. Despite recurring benefit reductions, social expenditures continue to represent a major portion of GDP, as Figure I attests. The figure also suggests that, although there has been convergence between some specific Canadian and U.S. programs, in general Canada has generally managed fashion to its own social response to globalization. Within these broad parameters, however, the postwar social slowly being redefined. There has been no social contract, no equivalent of the vision of the ways contemporary era in such long series as Marsh Report economic should be reconciled. have been articulated, tions which the and Indeed, contract is blueprint of a new to provide an integrated social imperatives of the to the extent that such visions they have tended to come from international organiza­ the OECD rather of incremental critical goals of the comprehensive than national advisory changes are postwar social bodies. Nevertheless, a slowly altering the balance among the contract: security, redistribution and social integration. Security in a global economy. As of the postwar social in contract an uncertain world. These risks the welfare state was all Canadians. pressure in a global have seen, the fundamental purpose were seen accordingly seen This we was to provide security against the risks inherent conception economy. as an of the as facing virtually everyone, and integral component of the lives of social Admittedly, the contract is under enormous postwar approach has not For a detailed discussion the extent of convergence and divergence in the Canadian and U.S. welfare states, see Banting (1997). 268 Keith G. Banting Figure 1 : Public Expenditure on Social Programs in Canada and the United States: As a Proportion of GDP, 1960-1993 25 o.__ 1960 _ 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1993 Source: OECD (1996a). disappeared completely. Medicare remains the basic instrument of health care in Canada. The system is under intense fiscal strain, and private expenditures have risen somewhat as a proportion of total health spending; but Canadians clearly remain passionately attached to Medicare as a system of health care for the public as a whole. The postwar conception also remains important in the field of retirement income, although with greater qualifications. From the beginning, public pensions such as the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans were seen as providing a universal base of retirement income, on which middle- and upper-income Canadians could build with occupational pensions and private savings. Although the balance between public and private provision is shifting with the expansion of RRSPs and other retirement income vehicles, public pensions remain the primary source of retirement income for the great majority of Canadians. The current debate over the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans reveals the tenacity of these assumptions. Despite suggestions from the Reform Party and some private analysts that public contributory programs should be replaced by a universal system of RRSPs, the current round of The Internationalization of the Social Contract 269 negotiations among the federal and provincial governments has proceeded on the assumption that the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans will remain a basic retirement income vehicle for all Canadians (Federal, Provincial and Territorial Governments of Canada, 1996). Elsewhere, however, the conception of the social contract as a means of protecting Canadians from the insecurities inherent in the modem world has faded. This is particularly the case for labour market programs, such as unemployment insurance, social assistance, training, employment programs, and minimum wage policy. Economic restructuring and downsizing have increased Canadians' general sense of economic insecurity and anxiety about the future. Nevertheless, policy elites are increasingly convinced that the state can protect Canadians from the uncertainties of a changing economic order. The modem emphasis is on flexibility, adjustment, and what the OECD has described as an "active society", in which social policy does not attempt to shield people from economic disruptions in their lives. Increasingly, social policy is seen as an instrument of change, a hand-maiden of economic trans­ formation. This broad conception pervades contemporary planning documents that emerge from governments and advisory agencies. For example, the Green Paper that launched the federal social security review in 1994 explained the need for a new model for social security in the following terms: "The tumultuous social and economic changes of the past decade and a half have left us with a system that is out of date and in need of reform. The system is geared to help people where change was the exception, not the rule, so it does too little to help people adjust to change" (Canada. Human Resources Develop­ ment, 1994, p. 2 1 ) . Another way of expressing this point is that the conception of security is evolving. In policy circles, security no longer means protection from change. Such security as is available in the contemporary world comes from the capacity to adapt; hence the emphasis on human capital as the surest form of security in the modem world, and the centrality of debates over education and training. The transition at the heart of the internationalization of the social contract can thus be expressed as a transition between two conceptions of security: from security as protection from change, to security as the capacity to change. Although the emerging conception of security pervades policy documents, it is also politically contested. The philosophy of the active society profoundly challenges the conception of security embedded in the postwar social contract, and reform efforts spark pitched political battles. Many politicians remain sceptical of the effectiveness of training programs, and politicians from poorer regions of the country are particularly opposed. As a result, current programs 270 Keith G. Banting reflect an uneasy amalgam of two approaches. This ambivalence can be seen in overall expenditure trends, which are tracked in Table 4. Clearly, enthusiasm for active programs has been constrained by overall reductions in social spending and by the surge in unemployment in the early 1990s. Total labour market expenditures have fallen as a proportion of GDP since the mid1980s, and the role of passive income support expanded during the recession of the early 1990s. By the mid-1990s, however, an underlying trend towards active measures was asserting itself. Table 4: Expenditures on Active and Passive Labour Market Programs, Canada, 1985-86 to 1995-96 Year Proportion o f GDP Proportion o f Total Labour % Market Spending % Active Passive Measures Measures 2.50 25.2 74.8 1.86 2.48 25.0 75.0 0.5S 1.64 2.19 25.1 74.9 1988-89 0.50 1.57 2.08 24.0 75.5 1989-90 0.51 1.57 2.08 24.S 75.5 1990-91 0.53 1.91 2.45 21.6 78.0 1991-92 0.61 2.28 2.89 21.1 78.9 1992-93 0.64 2.24 2.88 22.2 77.8 1993-94 0.64 1.98 2.62 24.4 75.6 1994-95 0.60 1.54 2.14 28.0 72.0 1995-96 0.56 1.32 1.88 29.8 70.2 Active Passive Measures Measures 1985-86 0.63 1.87 1986-87 0.62 1987-88 Total Sources: Data for 1985-86 to 1989-90 from OECD (1991); data for 1990-91 from OECD (1994c); and data for 1991-92 to 1995-96 from OECD (1996b). The Internationalization of the Social Contract 271 The battles between advocates of different conceptions of security can be seen vividly in the case of unemployment insurance. The 1994 discussion paper on social security reform identified unemployment insurance as a classic case of passive income support that did too little to promote adjustment: "Today, almost 40 per cent of regular UI claimants have used the program at least three times in the last five years. Many are on a treadmill. They need help getting off' (Canada. Human Resources Development, government identified two options for refonn. 1994, p. 2 1 ) . The The first - and clearly preferred - option would distinguish between "occasional" claimants who would continue to receive existing benefits, and "frequent" claimants who would receive lower benefits and more active adjustment assistance to move them towards more stable employment. The second option would not distinguish between these two types of recipients, and would simply cut the program in traditional ways for everyone. The political reaction to the preferred option was intense, especially in Canada east of the Ottawa River. The proposal would have had a major impact on seasonal workers who draw on unemployment benefits virtually every year, and determined resistance came from the Atlantic and Quebec members of the Liberal caucus as well as all of the premiers from Atlantic Canada, including New Brunswick's Frank McKenna who is sometimes seen as a reformist on these issues. The result was a classic Canadian compromise. The legislation finally adopted placed active and passive support on the same symbolic basis, and a new "intensity rule" in the benefit provisions did distinguish between occasional and frequent claimants. However, the size of the penalty for repeat use was small and phased in over a long period of time; and the legislation did rely on yet another reduction in the maximum period of benefits for everyone. The tensions between different conceptions of security are now more deeply embedded in the law of the land. The Atlantic Groundfish Strategy (TAGS) reveals even stronger resist­ ance. The collapse of the groundfish stocks in Atlantic Canada was, in the words of an early task force, "a famine of biblical scale" which threatens not just thousands of workers but the very existence of whole communities (Canada. DepartmentofFisheries and Oceans, 1993, p. vii). From the time of the initial moratorium on the northern cod fishery in government has accepted an obligation to help the 1992, the federal workers and their communities. However, by the time of the announcement of the five-year TAGS program in 1994, there was general agreement that capacity in the Atlantic fishery should be reduced by 50%, leaving a smaller and more 272 Keith G. Banting professional fishery in place when the fish return. As a result, TAGS was to be an active adjustment program designed to move fully half of the workforce out of the industry. All clients would be engaged in career planning, employment counselling and training for at least 75% of their time; and a refusal to accept a reasonable offer to participate in active programming could lead to the loss of income support for 12 weeks. Lloyd Axworthy, then minister of human resources development, saw TAGS as a pilot project for a much wider reform of the social security system. The program was in trouble from the beginning. Part of the problem was financial, as far more people registered for the program than anticipated, generating an immediate budget squeeze. More telling, however, was the resistance to adjustment. Most of the workers supported by TAGS have low levels of education, see their future in the fishery, and wish to remain in their communities. Income-support provided by TAGS and other federal programs tends to be seen as compensation for federal mismanagement of the fishery itself, and training initiatives evoke considerable scepticism. In addition, fishery unions have tended to discourage training for careers outside the fishery, and have argued that budgetary problems should be managed by cutting the training rather than income support (Bailey, 1994). In the end, these views prevailed. Only a small percentage of clients have been engaged in adjustment programs; income support payments have been protected and adjustment initiatives have been cut; few workers are leaving the industry under TAGS; and federal planners assume that a significant number of workers will remain dependent on income support at the end of the program in 1999. In the words of one assessment, "TAGS has a commitment to facilitate the adjustment process, but as yet little adjustment has taken place" (May and Hollett, 1995, p. 87). Obviously, Canada lacks a social consensus on the meaning of security in a global era. Nevertheless, the direction of incremental change is clear. Despite political resistance, security as defined in the postwar social contract is fading as an objective in important elements of the emerging social contract. Redistribution in a global economy. If security is receding as a central goal of the social contract, vertical redistribution has become more prominent. The welfare state is less and less about protecting Canadians as a whole from the inevitable risks inherent in modem life. The operating assumption is increasingly that the primary purpose of social policy should be to target scarce resources on the poor. The logical extreme of this conception of social 'This section draws on Hallman (1996). The Internationalization of the Social Contract 273 policy would be a comprehensive Guaranteed Annual Income (GAI), first popularized by Milton Friedman in Capitalism and Freedom (1962). This approach would eliminate all other social programs, and redirect the resources into one income-tested benefit that is targeted on the poor and delivered through the tax system. In its most comprehensive versions, a GAi would not simply be a technical reordering of the instruments through which policy was pursued. Rather, the idea reflected a radically different conception of the purposes of social policy. Whereas the postwar social contract was about providing security for the population as a whole, the GAi proclaims that the state has no role in meeting the social needs of average citizens, and that the only legitimate goal of social policy is support to the poor. Canada has flirted with - but not fully embraced - this conception of the social contract. There has been a shift in the balance between universal and selective programs in the income security system in Canada. In part, this flows from program restructuring. Two universal programs, Old Age Security and Family Allowances have been transfonned into income-tested benefits that bear a strong family resemblance to the basic idea of a GAi. Given their political sensitivity, these changes were carried out in a long series of incre­ mental moves too tortuous to describe in detail (Battle and Torjman, 1993). Moreover, the process is still in evolution. For example, the full shift to the income-tested Seniors Benefit will not be completed until the year 2001. Although the lengthy transition from Family Allowances to the income-tested Child Benefit was completed in 1993, the 1997 federal budget enriched the program as part of a coordinated federal-provincial initiative designed to lift children from welfare. The shift towards selective programs has been reinforced by a growing reliance on social assistance to respond to a wider range of social needs. In part, the expansion of social assistance flows from reductions in social insurance programs, especially unemployment insurance. In addition, however, the expansion reflects changes in the wider society for which other programs are not well adapted or have not been developed. For example, caseloads have been increased by changes in family structures, including the growing number of single-parent families, and by the lack of comprehensive mechanisms to enforce child-support orders in most provinces. Similarly, public support for child care has tended to flow through social assistance vehicles. As we have seen, the primary purpose of the postwar social contract was to build universal programs that would ensure that Canadians did not have to turn to social assistance, the program of last resort. The willingness to build universal programs for new social needs has faded, however, and the last resort is increasingly the only resort for many Canadians. 274 Keith G. Banting A final sign of the primacy of vertical redistribution has been the extent to which income-testing has crept into unemployment insurance, which was traditionally based on social insurance principles. Admittedly, the most recent package of changes embodied in the new Employment Insurance legislation shifted the balance in several different directions at once. A reduction in the maximum insurable earnings did reduce cross-subsidization and tighten the relationship between contributions and benefits. However, this was offset by a strengthened Family Supplement for low-income beneficiaries with family responsibilities, and by a tougher clawback of benefits from upper-income recipients at the end of the year through the tax system. This complex package of political compromises was not based on any clear philosophy, and the program increasingly lacks conceptual clarity. The extent of the shift between universal and selective programs in the income-security sector is highlighted in Figure 2, which also contrasts the Canadian experience with that of the United States. Figure 2: The results here often Expenditures on Universal Income-Security as a Proportion of Total Income Security: Canada and the United States, 1960-1992 (in percent) 90 0 L 70 60 % e 1 C: 2 50 0 ,....__ 1960 _ 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1992 Source: Banting (1997, Table 7.4). The Internationalization of the Social Contract 275 come as a surprise to those used to thinking of Canada as being more dedicated to the universal approach. Canada and the United States started in almost identical positions in the early 1960s. Since then, the proportion of U.S. income-security dollars that have flowed through the universal compo­ nents of the Social Security system has remained relatively stable, with a slight increase in recent years as selective programs for the poor bore the heaviest cuts in that country. In contrast, a growing proportion of Canadian income­ security dollars have flowed through selective programs. Moreover, the figure probably understates the trend, since it treats unemployment benefits as a universal program, despite the extent of income-testing in the allocation of its benefits. Clearly, the two countries have been traveling different pathways for decades. This trend towards a more strongly redistributive welfare state has played an important role in an era of greater inequality in market incomes. As in many dimensions of our collective life, Canada is situated somewhere between the experience of Europe and the United States. On one hand, our unemployment rates are significantly above those of the United States, but below those of much of continental Europe. On the other hand, the polarization in earnings is somewhat less than in the United States, but greater than in Europe. There are other differences from the American experience, to be sure. In the United States, polarization in earnings has been associated with a growing gap between workers with a college education and those with only high school or less. This educational differential is, as yet, less discernible in Canada (Riddell, 1995). Here the burden of economic adjustment has fallen most heavily on young workers and new entrants to the labour market. In addition, the distribution of working time has been important, as firms increasingly prefer to have existing employees work longer rather than take on new employees (Morrisette, Myles and Picot, 1995). Nevertheless, when all the subtle differences in the experience of Canada and the United States are noted, the common reality has been one of growing inequality in the income that families and individuals derive from their involvement in the economy. The real difference between Canada and the United States is in the extent to which each sought to offset market pressures through political choice. In the United States, the redistributive impulse has waned in recent decades, and government taxes and transfers have not offset the growing inequality inherent in a global economy and economic restructuring. In Canada, the redistributive role of government, which has been reinforced by the direction of change in the design of social programs, has continued to stabilize the level of income inequality. Figure 3, which contrasts Canada and the United States, stands as a testament to the centrality of redistribution in the emerging social contract, 276 Keith G. Banting Figure 3: Changes in Income Inequality among Families, Canada and the United States, 1971-1995 A0 A0o .395 .390 .385 z .4 £ .380 .3s5 8 e .370 5 .365 .360 .3s5 .30 .345 .340 .335 .330 .325 .320 171 Note: 1975 19$79 1983 1987 1991 19$5 Data refer to total money income, including government transfer payments. Source: Statistics Canada (1997); Karoly (1993, figure 2.1), updated from data provided by United States. Bureau of the Census (1995). and to the scope for domestic political choice even in a global era. Moreover, Table 5, which captures the impact of taxes as well as transfers, shows even greater stability in the level of inequality in Canada. Social integration in a global economy. The globalization of economic activity and the increasing ease with which information, ideas and individuals move across international borders has posed particular challenges to countries such as Canada, in which regional tensions threaten the continued existence of a single political community. In this context, it is hardly surprising that Canadians increasingly look for elements that sustain pan-Canadian linkages and nurture a sense of common citizenship from coast to coast to coast. Unfortunately, the emerging social contract of the global era is less well designed to act as an instrument of social integration. The cumulative impact The Internationalization of the Social Contract 277 Table 5: Inequality in Family Income in Canada: Before and After Taxes and Transfers, 1980-1995 Income after Taxes Income before Taxes Year and Transfers and Transfers (gini) (gini) 1980 0.374 0.294 1982 0.393 0.296 1984 0.408 0.303 1986 0.403 0.300 1988 0.401 0.293 1990 0.404 0.292 1992 0.427 0.297 1994 0.425 0.293 1995 0.428 0.298 Source: Statistics Canada (1997, Table VI). of intensified regional and linguistic conflict, economic restructuring and fiscal weakness of the federal government has been the erosion of the capacity of national social programs to enhance a sense of pan-Canadianism. As we have seen, the integrative role of the postwar welfare state was built on three pillars: federal programs that provide direct benefits to Canadians; conditional federal transfers to provinces to support important social programs; and unconditional equalization grants to provinces. Several of these pillars, however, have been significantly weakened. Direct federal transfers to Canadians no longer have the same integrative capacity. The fundamental focus of the postwar social contract was on the provision of security through universal programs that treate all Canadians the same; the redistributive social contract, to which we are moving, treats Canadians differently, and by its very nature - is 278 less capable of sustaining a sense of common Keith G. Banting citizenship. In addition, the regionalization of some federal programs also undermines their integrative capacity. This is especially the case with un­ employment insurance, in which regional differentials in generosity have become pronounced. An unemployed worker is half as likely to be receiving benefit from his or her national government in Ontario as in Atlantic Canada (Sargent, 1995). It is hardly surprising, therefore, that the unemployment insurance program has become a source of conflict rather than cohesion in the federation. Federal grants to provincial governments in support of health care, post­ secondary education and social assistance also play a less integrative role. The shift to the block fund approach, the reduction in the total federal dollars flowing to provinces, and lingering discrimination in the allocation of funds among provinces have combined to weaken the capacity of the federal govern­ ment to insist on common approaches to critical social needs. In part, the erosion of federal presence is technical. There are, for example, fewer con­ ditions attached to the federal transfer associated with social assistance than in the past. However, the erosion is also political. Considerable damage to the political legitimacy of federal standards has already been done; provincial governments are increasingly willing to challenge federal conditions on the grounds that Ottawa's financial contribution has shrunk so much that the federal authorities no longer have a right to set program conditions. The only federal pillar of a pan-Canadian approach to social policy which has remained unscathed is the equalization program. In contrast to the deep cuts in other transfers to citizens and provinces, equalization grants to have­ not provinces continue to grow. Here is one more reminder if one was needed - that our federal institutions are more responsive to regional needs that broadly defined social needs. The issue, however, is the long-term political stability of this pattern. During the 1997 election campaign, the platform of the Refonn Party included a proposal to reduce the equalization program and to increase spending on health care. Will the willingness to support the equalization system remain strong in a Canada where other elements of a pan­ Canadian social policy fade? The weakening of the integrative potential of the social contract is high­ lighted by the contrast between the two referendums on Quebec secession. During the 1980 campaign, federal ministers charged into the province insisting that independence would threaten social programs Quebecers enjoyed as citizens of Canada; pensions, Monique Begin argued, would be especially vulnerable. During the 1995 campaign, the shoe was on the other foot. The Parti Quebecois warned that the federal government was abandoning its social commitments, and that only sovereignty could save the pensions and other The Internationalization of the Social Contract 279 social benefits of Quebecers. Obviously, the shift from a decisive federalist win in 1980 to a near loss in 1995 cannot be attributed solely or even primarily to the weakening of the federal role in social policy. At a minimum, however, the two battles highlighted the strategic importance of social policy in battles over the life and death of states. Concern about the integrative capacity of the social contract has triggered an anxious search for mechanisms other than federal legislation to sustain a pan-Canadian approach to social programs. During the Charlottetown round of constitutional negotiations, attention focused on the idea of a social charter, which would entrench a commitment to the existing framework of social programs in the constitution of the country. This idea disappeared with the ill­ fated Accord. More recently, attention has shifted to proposals fo federal­ provincial or purely interprovincial accords, sustained by intergovernmental bodies and monitoring systems (Ministerial Council, 1995; Biggs, 1996; Courchene, 1996; Institute of Intergovernmental Relations, 1997). Whether such proposals would be effective goes beyond the scope of this paper. How­ ever, the attention that they are receiving is a symptom of a deepening concern about the fading of a pan-Canadian social contract, and the implications for the wider integration of the Canadian political community. Conclusions As with the state itself, the social contract between governments and their publics has always had a dual anchorage in the international and domestic worlds. During the postwar era, international and domestic forces combined to sustain a powerful expansion of social programs throughout the OECD. In the contemporary global economy, this symbiosis between the international and the domestic has broken down, and the welfare state is under powerful pressure. However, the global economy does not dictate the ways in which governments respond, and different countries are responding in distinctive ways that reflect their domestic politics and cultures. Multiple pathways to adjustment are emerging, each with a distinctive allocation of the opportunities and burdens generated by change. Canadian experience parallels this wider pattern, and Canada continues to chart a different course from the United States. Within these parameters, however, the broad outlines of a new social contract are coming into focus. 280 Keith G. Banting The transition involves a shift in the balance of the three fundamental objectives that came to define the postwar social contract: security, redistribution and social integration. At the heart of the restructuring is a decline in the commitment to security as it was understood in the postwar years, and the emergence of a new understanding of the nature and sources of personal security in an insecure international economy. Security as protection from change is giving way to security as the ability to change. This transition remains politically contested, and our current program structure represents an uneasy amalgam of these distinctive views of the relationship between the individual and society in a global economy. Nevertheless, the direction of change is clear. With security as traditionally understood a fading objective of the new social contract, redistributive goals are becoming more prominent. The restructuring of established programs and the response to new social needs increasingly reflects the assumption that the primary purpose of social action should be support for the poor rather than the population as a whole. This transition has been important in a period when global economic restructuring and technological change are producing greater inequality in the marketplace. Unlike the U.S. pattern, the tax and transfer system in Canada has continued to stabilize the distribution and income and prevent the gap between rich and poor widening dramatically. Expressed in another way, Canada has exper­ ienced a greater shift in the distribution of security than in the distribution of income. Unfortunately, the emerging social contract is less well equipped to serve as an instrument of social integration. In contrast to the universal programs that characterized the postwar social contract, targeted social programs - b y their very nature treat Canadians differently, and are less well placed to build social cohesion. The ongoing decentralization of responsibility for central components of the welfare state accentuates this trend. A series of regional social contracts may well reflect local needs and aspirations more closely, but they cannot bridge the linguistic and territorial divisions that pull at the Canadian federation. Although the broad outlines of the emerging social contract are coming into focus, critical issues remain to be resolved. Three questions stand out. First, can we develop a wider social consensus on the meaning of security in a global economy? We have not yet come to grips with the full implications of the conception of security as the capacity to change. The postwar generation was committed to a universal conception of security as they understood it; their social contract sought to establish a right to protection from the risks of modern society. Will our generation develop a similarly universal commitment The Internationalization of the Social Contract 281 to security as we are coming to understand in our time? Will we establish a universal right to have access to the advanced education and training that are the well-springs of security in a global economy? At the moment, our policies concerning postsecondary education and training do not seem to be moving in that direction. Second, will Canadians sustain their commitment to redistribution? Recent decisions on social a sistance in some provinces raise important questions about the durability of the commitment to protect the poor. The central question before us is whether we can find a third option between the extremes presented by Europe and the United States. Is it possible to marry greater flexibility in labour markets with a redistributive ethos sufficiently strong to prevent the impoverishment and stark inequalities 6 processes of adjustment in the United States. associated with the This question is central to the ability of Canadians to chart a distinctive social policy course in a North American context, and the current direction of change in child benefits and other redistributive instruments will be signals of the path Canadians choose to tread. Finally, can Canadians find mechanisms to preserve a pan-Canadian dimension to their social contract? Considerable rhetoric has swirled around this issue, and proposals abound. But few concrete steps have been taken. The answer to this question will determine whether the social contract remains an instrument of wider social integration and social cohesion, or whether Canadians will have to look for other instruments to bind themselves together across the northern half of this vast continent. 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