The Battle between Airbus and Boeing At the commercial aircraft industry, there are three main segments: - large commercial airplanes (LCA); - regional jets; - Private jets. At this moment only Boeing and Airbus belong to segment of large commercial airplanes (LCA), with firms such as Embraer of Brazil and Bombardier of Canada taking up positions within the segment of regional jets in North America, firms such as Gulfstream and LearJet round out the market of private jets (Heppenheimer 2001:135). The Boeing and Airbus are only two firms that share almost 100% of the market of LCA. While there are still older planes produced by defunct Soviet firms as well as some European manufactures such as British Aerospace or France’s Aerospatiale that remain in limited commercial service, it is safe to say that nearly all LCA were produced by either Boeing or Airbus. Therefore the market is highly concentrated and qualifies as a classic duopoly. Firms Structure Boeing. The Boeing Company is a publicly‐traded firm registered with Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States and listed on the New York Stock Exchange (ticker symbol BA). In the Boeing Annual Report (2006) says that the firm is owned by shareholders via 1,012,261,159 outstanding shares of Boeing Stock (2006 Boeing 10‐K), making it a publicly owned firm managed by a board of directors on the shareholders’ behalf. Boeing regularly publishes its financial information in both its SEC filings and distributes an annual report to its shareholders. If You will see any annual report of the Boeing, for example Boeing Annual Report (2007), You will see that these filings and reports contain extensive detailed information on Boeing’s commercial airplanes division, the entity responsible for the design, testing, and manufacture of all Boeing commercial jetliners. Airbus. The current structure of the firm now known as Airbus S.A.S. is extraordinarily complex and difficult to fully discern. Airbus S.A.S. was formed after the merger of DaimlerChrysler Aerospace AG (DASA) of Germany, Aerospatiale‐ Matra of France, and Aeronauticas SA (CASA) of Spain to form European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company or EADS. As a result of the merger, EADS now holds 80% of the shares of Airbus S.A.S. The remaining 20% is owned by a British firm – BAE Systems. All four firms, DASA, Aerospatiale, CASA, and BAE, were the original founding firms of the Airbus Consortium. EADS is a simplified joint‐stock company that has major shareholders such as SOGEADE a French state-owned holding company, SEPI a Spanish state‐owned holding company, and Daimler AG, with the French government directly owning a portion of the publicly traded shares (Newhouse 2007). Daimler is partially owned by the German government, and BAE Systems is partially owned by the British crown. In addition, EADS is traded on six public stock exchanges in Europe. Though the connection is not direct, Airbus S.A.S. continues to be partially owned and controlled by the governments of four European countries. EADS and BAE Systems each publish annual financial reports. However, Airbus S.A.S does not publicly distribute its financials. The Airbus financial information is not directly contained in either the EADS or BAE reports – it is therefore very difficult to determine Airbus’s financial status. Figure 1. The Airbus’s firm structure EADS 80% Ownership DASA DaimlerChrysler AeroSpace AG German Government AerospatialeMatra SOGEADE a French State Holding Company CASA Aeronaucticas SA SEPI a Spanish State Holding Company Private Shareholders Airbus S.A.S. BAE Systems 20% Ownership Six Public Stock Exchanges French Government British Crown (Minority Stake) Private Shareholders (Majority Stake) Orders and deliveries The number of orders and deliveries for Boeing and Airbus companies from year 1993 till 2013: Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Orders Deliveries Airbus Boeing Airbus Boeing 38 236 138 409 125 125 123 312 106 441 123 256 326 708 124 271 460 543 126 375 556 606 182 563 476 355 294 620 520 588 311 491 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 375 300 284 370 1055 790 1341 777 271 574 1419 833 902 314 251 239 272 1002 1044 1413 662 142 530 805 1203 830 325 303 305 320 378 434 453 483 498 510 534 588 626 527 381 281 285 290 398 441 375 481 462 477 601 648 According to the data table we have next graph of yearly deliveries and orders for Boeing and Airbus: a) Yearly total orders (Airbus vs. Boeing): Number of orders Yearly Total Orders (Airbus vs. Boeing) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Airbus Boeing Figure 2. Yearly Total Orders b) Yearly total deliveries (Airbus vs. Boeing): Number of deliveries Yearly Total Deliveries (Airbus vs. Boeing) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Airbus Boeing Figure 3. Yearly Total Deliveries As we can see from the pictures above, the Boeing was the leader of the LCA for more than 10 years until 2003. It was happened because in early 2000s Airbus has taken some important decisions that affect the company's financial position at the moment. The strategy includes next two points: 1. First, it was made the risky decision to initiate the development and production of A380. Even after four years from the start of the production of A380 it has not come to a profitable level. 2. The second important factor was the decision to sell the aircraft at a loss or with minimal profit in order to increase market share. And this strategy was right! For example, as we see from the chart Airbus delivered 311 aircraft to customers, Boeing – 491 in 2000. In year 2003, the ratio changed in favor of Airbus (at first time!) - 305 against Boeing - 281. Airbus’ orders grew up from 132 billion euros in 2000 to 541 billion euros in 2011 (from 124 to 700 billion dollars). For comparison, the volume of Boeing’s orders has grown up from 153 to 355 billion dollars. But Boeing has been more profitable. In year 2011, its EBIT margin in commercial airplanes was 9.7% vs. 1.7% at Airbus. This dichotomy between one party's push for market share gains and the other's focus on profitable orders has defined the relationship between the two competitors for over a decade. In a decade of astounding revenue and order growth, Airbus has not improved its profitability. In fact, its operating income (EBIT) was negative in three of the last six years (2006-2011) despite healthy revenues and deliveries. Boeing has remained profitable but its commercial airplane sales and operating income have been rangebound for a decade. From 2000 to 2011, Boeing sales grew at a small 1.4% annualized rate and EBIT at only 2.3%. At Airbus, sales have grown at a 7.6% annual rate (11% in dollar terms) but EBIT has nosedived into the red for the past six years. Boeing's commercial plane division accounted for 66% of its group sales in 1999 and now accounts for 52%. Airbus sales have remained consistently above 60% of EADS group sales and reached a new high of 67% in year 2011. Airbus's drive for market share at the expense of profits has had a very measurable impact: its revenues are up, its profits are down, and Boeing's airplane sales and earnings have flat lined. Airbus is trying to improve its poor profitability. Airbus management is targeting an EBIT margin of 10% for 2015, a level last reached in year 2005. The margin is expected to start expanding in 2012 as A380 losses subside and low-margin orders from the early 2000s are finally phased out. Long-term expectations remain high and both manufacturers are likely to add more capacity in coming years. Because these expectations are predicated on continued growth in emerging markets, a cyclical downturn in these markets will depress utilization rates and put pressure on pricing at the same time that new competitors enter the lower end of the market. On the other hand, continued expansion of emerging market airlines and operational improvements at Airbus could result in better pricing power unless COMAC manages to gain significant market share. Exchange Rates Effect An exchange rate between currencies is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another. It is also regarded as the value of one country’s currency in terms of another currency. To begin with it needs to say that U.S. dollar is the de facto currency of the global aerospace industry (Wall Street Journal 2009:B3). In the same time the cost of producing aircraft to Boeing and Airbus are calculated in dollars and euros, respectively. While the euro was cheaper dollar, Airbus had the advantage of a cheap currency. However, with the growth rate of the euro against the dollar this advantage was transferred to Boeing. Exchange rates: - U.S. dollar / Euro Figure 4. Exchange rate U.S. dollar per Euro Exchange Rate - U.S. dollar per Euro 1,4 1,38 1,36 1,34 1,32 1,3 1,28 8.4.13 9.4.13 10.4.13 11.4.13 12.4.13 1.4.14 2.4.14 3.4.14 4.4.14 5.4.14 6.4.14 7.4.14 - U.S. dollar / Japanese Yen Figure 5. Exchange Rate Japanese Yen per U.S. dollar Exchange Rate - Japanese Yen per U.S. dollar 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 8.4.13 - 9.4.13 10.4.13 11.4.13 12.4.13 Euro / Japanese Yen 1.4.14 2.4.14 3.4.14 4.4.14 5.4.14 6.4.14 7.4.14 Exchange Rate - Japanese Yen per Euro 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 8.4.13 9.4.13 10.4.13 11.4.13 12.4.13 1.4.14 2.4.14 3.4.14 4.4.14 5.4.14 6.4.14 7.4.14 Figure 6. Exchange Rate Japanese Yen per Euro In addition, the exchange rate plays a role in the sale of aircraft. Boeing usually sells its cars in dollars, while Airbus, indicating in most cases the prices in dollars, in certain transactions, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, more flexibility and exposes the prices in other currencies. Depending on fluctuations in the interval between order and delivery airliner this may lead to additional revenue and additional losses for the producer (Wall Street Journal 2009:B3). What we have in the situation when we want to buy an airplane? The price for the airplane from Boeing is in U.S. dollars. Let take that the price is 260 million of dollar. And the price for the airplane from Airbus is 389.9 million of dollar (or nearly 290 million of euro). If we will calculate the price of the airplane of the Boeing: 1) The price of the airplane is 260 million of dollar. The exchange rate U.S. dollar / Japanese Yen is 104.86 yen per dollar (on January, 8, 2014). 2) The price of the airplane in Japanese Yen in this case will be: 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝐽𝑃𝑌 = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑈𝑆𝐷 ∙ 𝑟𝑈𝑆𝐷𝐽𝑃𝑌 = 260 million of dollar ∙ 104.86 = 27263.6 million of dollar. 3) The exchange rate U.S. dollar / Euro is 1.3576 dollar per 1 euro (on January, 8, 2014). The exchange rate Euro / Japanese Yen is 142.35 yen per euro (on January, 8, 2014). If we will take the same price and convert it into euro and then we will calculate the price in Japanese Yen, we will have: 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝐽𝑃𝑌 = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑈𝑆𝐷 260 million of dollar ∙ 𝑟𝑈𝑆𝐷𝐽𝑃𝑌 = ∙ 142.35 = 𝑟𝐸𝑈𝑅𝑈𝑆𝐷 1.3576 = 27262.08 million of dollar. We have lower price. But why? If we will count exchange rate U.S. dollar / Euro using two exchange rates U.S. dollar / Japanese Yen and Euro / Japanese Yen, we will have: 𝑟𝐸𝑈𝑅𝑈𝑆𝐷 = 𝑟𝑈𝑆𝐷𝐽𝑃𝑌 142.35 = ≈ 1.3575 < 𝑟𝐸𝑈𝑅𝑈𝑆𝐷 = 1.3576. 𝑟𝐸𝑈𝑅𝐽𝑃𝑌 104.86 We know that it is important for customer and producer how stable is the currency. The graph below show the change in exchange rates (weekly) during one year. Figure 7. Changes in Exchange Rates Changes in Exchange Rates (USD/JPY and EUR/JPY) 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 -0,5 -1 -1,5 -2 -2,5 -3 Japanese Yen per dollar change Japanese Yen per Euro change According to this graph we can say that U.S. dollar has smaller change, while Euro has higher changes in exchange rate. Date (weekly) USD per Euro Yen per dollar Yen per Euro 7/27/14 1.348 101.55 136.89 7/20/14 1.3563 101.47 137.62 7/13/14 1.3607 101.64 138.3 7/6/14 1.3642 101.73 138.77 6/29/14 1.3616 101.79 138.58 6/22/14 1.3574 102.01 138.47 6/15/14 1.3572 102.21 138.72 6/8/14 1.3625 102.33 139.43 6/1/14 1.3626 101.83 138.75 5/25/14 1.3676 101.56 138.9 5/18/14 1.3724 101.84 139.76 5/11/14 1.3864 101.87 141.23 5/4/14 1.3852 102.33 141.75 4/27/14 1.3819 102.41 141.52 4/20/14 1.3831 102.04 141.13 4/13/14 1.3805 102.27 141.18 4/6/14 1.3751 103.42 142.21 3/30/14 1.3783 102.35 141.07 3/23/14 1.3862 101.88 141.22 3/16/14 1.3887 102.56 142.41 3/9/14 1.3795 102.34 141.18 3/2/14 1.374 102.22 140.45 2/23/14 1.3723 102.17 140.22 2/16/14 1.3652 102.2 139.52 2/9/14 1.3542 101.81 137.88 2/2/14 1.3616 102.49 139.55 1/26/14 1.3594 103.81 141.11 1/19/14 1.3625 104.12 141.86 1/12/14 1.3615 104.62 142.44 1/5/14 1.3719 105.03 144.09 12/29/13 1.3702 104.48 143.16 12/22/13 1.3718 103.52 142.01 12/15/13 1.3744 103.03 141.6 12/8/13 1.3614 102.52 139.57 12/1/13 1.3571 101.87 138.24 11/24/13 1.3505 100.48 135.7 11/17/13 1.3431 99.62 133.81 11/10/13 1.346 98.64 132.78 11/3/13 1.3688 98.06 134.22 10/27/13 1.3749 97.66 134.27 10/20/13 1.359 98.25 133.53 10/13/13 1.355 97.64 132.31 10/6/13 1.3554 97.72 132.45 9/29/13 1.3509 98.77 133.43 9/22/13 1.3423 99.14 133.06 9/15/13 1.3258 99.62 132.07 9/8/13 1.3182 99.26 130.84 9/1/13 1.3318 98.14 130.7 8/25/13 1.3361 98.01 130.95 8/18/13 1.3307 97.36 129.56 8/11/13 1.3315 97.4 129.68 8/4/13 1.3265 98.47 130.6 Variance: - Japanese Yen per U.S. dollar: 𝑣𝑈𝑆𝐷𝐽𝑃𝑌 = 4.4359. - Japanese Yen per Euro: 𝑣𝐸𝑈𝑅𝐽𝑃𝑌 = 17.1697. We see that it is better and less risky to use dollar prices (if we are in Japan). Exchange Hedging Forward Contracts. Forward Contract (FC) is a customized contract between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a specified price on a future date. A forward contract can be used for hedging or speculation, although its non-standardized nature makes it particularly apt for hedging. Unlike standard futures contracts, a forward contract can be customized to any commodity, amount and delivery date. A forward contract settlement can occur on a cash or delivery basis. Forward contracts do not trade on a centralized exchange and are therefore regarded as over-thecounter (OTC) instruments. While their OTC nature makes it easier to customize terms, the lack of a centralized clearinghouse also gives rise to a higher degree of default risk. As a result, forward contracts are not as easily available to the retail investor as futures contracts. How JAL could hedge its foreign exchange exposure by utilizing forward contracts? We know that it needs time to build an airplane and during this time the exchange rates Japanese Yen per U.S. dollar (or Japanese Yen per Euro) can change significantly. These changes can be positive for us, when the price will be lower than order price. But they also can be negative, when the price will be higher than order price. And this difference between exchange rate change and price change can be significant. If the price is $100 per item of something than it is not important when price changed by $0.01, but when we want to buy a plane even this change is quite significant. Let see an example with Boeing-747. The price of this plane is nearly 260 million of dollar. We made an order on the July, 1, 2013, when the exchange rate for U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen was 99.14 JPY per 1 USD. And we should buy this plane in one year (make a payment), when the exchange rate for U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen was 101.35 JPY per 1 USD. It is easy to see that we will lose a lot of money. 1) The price of the plane on July, 1, 2013: 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒2013 = $260,000,000 ∙ 99.14 = 25,776,400,000 (𝐽𝑃𝑌). 2) The price of the plane on July, 1, 2014: 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒2014 = $260,000,000 ∙ 101.35 = 26,351,000,000 (𝐽𝑃𝑌). 3) The difference in prices: ∆= 26,351,000,000 − 25,776,400,000 = 574,600,000 (𝐽𝑃𝑌). The difference in prices is more than 570 million of Japanese Yen. But we could use forward contract for this purchase. In this case we fix or exchange rate at the level of 99,14 JPY per USD and even after a year, when the exchange rate will change we will pay “old” price or $260,000,000 by 99.14 Japanese Yen per U.S. dollar or only. In this case we will save more than 570 million of Japanese Yen (according to our example). The opposite side of the forward contract in this case: if we made an order at the same date (July, 1, 2013) when the exchange rate was 99.14 Japanese Yen per U.S. dollar. And we made the forward contract with Boeing with the date of payment of October, 1, 2013 when the exchange rate was 97.93 Japanese Yen per U.S. dollar (the exchange rate decreased). In this case we will have: 1) The price of the plane on July, 1, 2013: 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝐽𝑢𝑙𝑦 = $260,000,000 ∙ 99.14 = 25,776,400,000 (𝐽𝑃𝑌). 2) The price of the plane on October, 1, 2013: 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑂𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑒𝑟 = $260,000,000 ∙ 97.93 = 25,461,800,000 (𝐽𝑃𝑌). 3) The difference in prices: ∆= 25,776,400,000 − 25,461,800,000 = 314,600,000 (𝐽𝑃𝑌). The difference in prices is more than 310 million of Japanese Yen. But in this situation the exchange rate change was positive for us (we could save more than 310 million of Japanese Yen). But in this case we also should pay “old” price according to the forward contract. Thus, the forward contract could have both positive and negative effects on the contract price. Money Market Hedges. A money market hedge is a technique for hedging foreign exchange risk using the money market, the financial market in which highly liquid and short-term instruments like Treasury bills, bankers’ acceptances and commercial paper are traded. Foreign exchange risk can arise either due to transaction exposure (due to receivables expected or payments due in foreign currency) or because assets or liabilities are denominated in a foreign currency. Translation exposure is a much bigger issue for large corporations than it is for small business and retail investors. The money market hedge is not the optimal way to hedge translation exposure - since it is more complicated to set up than using an outright forward or option - but it can be effectively used for hedging transaction exposure. If a foreign currency payment has to be made after a defined period of time (as we have in our case), the following steps have to be taken to hedge currency risk via the money market: 1) Borrow the domestic currency in an amount equivalent to the present value of the payment. 2) Convert the domestic currency into the foreign currency at the spot 3) Place this foreign currency amount on deposit. 4) When the foreign currency deposit matures, make the payment. rate. For example. We made an order for Boeing-747 on July, 1, 2013. We will need to pay $260,000,000 on July, 1, 2014. At this moment the exchange spot rate for U.S. dollar is 99.17 Japanese Yen per dollar. In this case we will need: 1) The price of the plane on July, 1, 2013: 𝑃𝑉 = $260,000,000 ≈ $257,425,743. (1 + 0.01) 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝐽𝑢𝑙𝑦 ≈ $257,425,743 ∙ 99.17 = 25,528,910,891.09 (𝐽𝑃𝑌). According to the strategy of the Money Market Hedges we need to borrow 25,528,910,933.31 in some Japanese bank. Let take that the interest rate will be 1.75%. Then we need to convert these money into the foreign currency (U.S. dollar) at the spot rate (99.17 JPY per USD): 25,528,910,891.09 2) 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑈𝑆𝐷 = 3) Then we place this amount in U.S. dollar on deposit. Let take that 99.17 = $257,425,743. deposit rate is 1%. It will give us exactly the same amount that we need, or $260,000,000. 4) And we need to pay an interest: 𝐼 = 25,528,910,891.09 ∙ (1 + 0.0175) = 25,975,666,831.68317. We have a “fixed rate” of: 𝑟= 25,975,666,831.68317 = 99.906. 260,000,000 On the July, 1, 2014 the exchange rate was at least 101.35 Japanese Yen per U.S. dollar. Thus, our “fixed rate” saved our money. We will save: ∆= 260,000,000 ∙ (101.35 − 99.906) = 375,440,000 (𝐽𝑃𝑌). We will save more than 375 million of Japanese Yen by using the money market hedges. Over the counter foreign currency option. Over the counter options are written by financial institutions. These OTC options are more liquid than forward contracts. At any moment, the holder can sell them back to the original writer, who quotes tow-say prices. The main advantage of OTC options is that they are tailored to the specific needs of the firm: Financial institutions are willing to write or buy options that vary by contract size, maturity, and strike price. As a consequence, the bid-ask spread in the OTC market is higher than in the traded-options market. Firms buying and selling currency options as part of their risk management program do so primarily in the OTC market. In OTC market, most of the options are written at a strike price equal to the spot price of that moment (at-the-money options). A firm wishing to purchase an option in the OTC market normally places a call to the currency option desk of a major money center bank, specifies the currencies, maturity, strike price(s), and asks for an indication (a bid-ask quote). The bank normally takes a few minutes to a few hours to price the option and return the call. How JAL could hedge itself with the help of OTC foreign currency option? It could ask some firm to sell currency option for the U.S. dollar for $260,000,000 at the spot rate (date: July, 1, 2013). The spot rate of U.S. dollar was 99.17 Japanese Yen per U.S. dollar on July, 1, 2013. It will mean that we will fix our exchange rate on this value. We will save: 𝑆 = $260,000,000 ∙ (101.35 − 99.17) = 566,800,000 (𝐽𝑃𝑌). We will save more than 560 million of Japanese Yen by using over the counter foreign currency option. Exchange traded futures contracts. Exchange traded futures contract is a variety of derivative products based on exchange-traded funds. ETF futures are contracts that represent an agreement to buy (or sell) the underlying ETF shares at an agreed-upon price on or before a specified date in the future. ETF options, on the other hand, are contracts that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (or sell) the underlying ETF shares at an agreed-upon price on or before a specified date in the future. These products are typically used when you adopt a bullish or bearish outlook on the economy or an industry as a whole, over individual stocks. We will save some money by using this option in the case in proposed exchange rate will be less than 101.35 Japanese Yen per U.S. dollar. Conclusion As we understand during working on this task there is a high risk to have heavy losses because of exchange rate fluctuations. It is especially important when we have pay large amount of money in some time period. Any company who work on foreign markets (buy or sell) should remember about this and try to minimize their risk to have some losses. How they can do this? With the help of such economic tools like: - Forward Contracts; - Money Market hedges; - Over the Counter foreign currency options; - Exchange traded futures contracts. But at the same time we should always trace financial and many other changes in the world which can influence on the money market to find the best time for purchase and best option for this. Bibliography Boeing Company. Form 10‐K. Chicago, IL: Boeing Company, 2006. Boeing Company. Annual Report. Chicago, IL: Boeing Company, 2007. Boeing: Investor Relations – Archived Quarterly Earnings Releases and Financial Reports. - www.boeing.com/companyoffices/financial/quarterly.htm. EADS Global Website – Strategy. – www.airbusgroup.com/int/en.html. Heppenheimer, T. A., 2001. A Brief History of Flight. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Historical Exchange Rates – www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates. Newhouse, John, 2007. Boeing versus Airbus. New York: Alfred A Knopf. Official Airbus Website. – www.airbus.com. Official Boeing Website. – www.boeing.com/boeing. Strong Euro Weighs on Airbus, Suppliers, Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2009, p. B3.