Republic of the Philippines ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA POLYTECHNIC STATE UNIVERSITY R.T. Lim Boulevard, Baliwasan, Zamboanga City 1st SEMESTER AY 2022-2023 In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements in THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD (GE113) MODEL UN RESEARCH PAPER (RESOLUTION PAPER) North Korea Nuclear Weapons and Government Policies Prepared by: Leah Mae L. Ladion BSIT-CT IIB BRYAN LOUIE L. ARCIAGA (GE 113 INSTRUCTOR) COUNTRY PROFILE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA: FACTS Capital: Pyongyang Area: 120,540 sq km Population: 25.9 million Language: Korean Life expectancy: 68 years (men) 75 years (women) LEADER Supreme leader: Kim Jong-un Kim Jong-un is the third leader from the Kim dynasty, founded by his grandfather Kim il-Sung. Kim Jong-un took over from his father Kim Jong-il when the latter died of a heart attack in December 2011. Under Kim Jong-un, North Korea has continued its policy of promoting the military at home while sending mixed signals to the rest of the world about its nuclear programme. TIMELINE Some key dates in North Korea's history: 4th Century BC - Gojoseon (Old Joseon) kingdom in existence on the Korean Peninsula and Manchuria. 3rd Century BC - Jin state formed in southern Korea. 57BC-668AD - Goguryeo, Baekje, and Silla grow to control the peninsula and Manchuria as the Three Kingdoms of Korea. 668-935 - Korea is unified under the kingdom of Silla, before it breaks apart. 918-1392 - Korea is again unified, under Goryeo. The name "Korea" is derived from the name of Goryeo. 1231-1270 - Mongol invasions of Korea bring Goryeo under the influence of the Mongol Empire in Mongolia and the Yuan dynasty of China until the mid-14th Century. 1392-1897 - Joseon dynasty. Established by general Yi Seong-gye after a coup d'état overthrowing the Goryeo dynasty in 1388. 1418-1450 - Sejong the Great implements administrative, social, scientific and economic reforms and creates Hangul, the Korean alphabet. 1592-1598 - Japanese invasions of Korea: conflict ends with the withdrawal of Japanese forces after a military stalemate. 1876 - Japan-Korea Treaty of 1876; designed to force open Korea to Japanese trade. The treaty ends Korea's status as a protectorate of China. 1897-1910 - Korean Empire: proclaimed by King Gojong of the Joseon dynasty. He oversees a partial modernization and westernization of Korea's military, economy and education systems. 1905 - Korean Empire becomes a protectorate of Japan. 1910 - Japan annexes Korea, which becomes a Japanese colony. 1945 - After World War Two, Japanese occupation ends with Soviet troops occupying area north of the 38th parallel, and US troops in the south. 1950-1953 - Korean War: Following border clashes and rebellions in South Korea, North Korea invades South Korea. North Korea is supported by China and the USSR while South Korea is supported by the US and allied UN countries. North Korea forces initially drive South Korean and US troops back to a final stand on the Pusan Perimeter, around the port of Busan. US and UN forces launch a surprise landing at Inchon and drive North Korean troops all the way back close to the Yalu river border with China. Chinese forces then intervene and push the US and UN forces back. After a year of mobile warfare, the front stabilizes along the 38th parallel, close to where fighting had a started and the last two years see a war of attrition on both sides. The fighting ends with an armistice on 27 July 1953 and the creation of a demilitarized zone, separating the two Koreas. Up to three million people are killed in the war. 1950s-60s - Ideological shift in North Korea, as Kim Il Sung seeks to consolidate power. He is highly critical of the USSR's Nikita Khrushchev and his de-Stalinization policies, and echoes Chinese critiques of Khrushchev as "revisionist". 1960s-1991 - Until the 1960s, economic growth was higher than in South Korea but in the 1980s, the economy beings to stagnate and almost completely collapses after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, when all Soviet aid is halted. 1994 - Founding President Kim Il-sung dies, succeeded by his son Kim Jong-il. Mid-1990s - Flooding exacerbates North Korea's economic crisis, damaging crops and infrastructure and led to widespread famine. Between 240,000 and 420,000 people die. In 1996, the government accepts UN food aid 2011 - Kim Jong-il dies and is succeeded by his son, Kim Jong-un. 2017-18 - North Korea crisis: heightened tension between North Korea and US when North Korea conducts a series of missile and nuclear tests demonstrating its ability to launch ballistic missiles beyond its immediate region. 2018-19 - Korean peace process: Kim Jong-un becomes first North Korean leader to enter the South when he meets South Korean President Moon Jae-in for talks, and then US President Donald Trump. 2022 - North Korea conducts a successful ICBM test launch for the first time since the 2017 crisis. TOPIC BACKGROUND Both North Korea and South Korea are UN member states. United Nations Membership. There are 193 sovereign member states in the world that are part of the UN and possess equal representation in the General Assembly. One of those nations is North Korea after its admission into the body on September 17 1991. North Korea became a permanent member of the UN in 1991. The mission is represented by the permanent representative of North Korea to the United Nations. The current permanent representative is Kim Song. North Korea also has a mission to the UN in Paris and an Ambassador to the UN at the UN Office at Geneva (World Atlas). For decades North Korea has been one of the world's most secretive societies. It is one of the few countries still under nominally communist rule. North Korea's nuclear ambitions have exacerbated its rigidly maintained isolation from the rest of the world. The country emerged in 1948 from the chaos following the end of World War Two. Its history is dominated by its Great Leader, Kim Il-sung, who shaped political affairs for almost half a century. Decades of this rigid state-controlled system have led to stagnation and a leadership dependent on a cult of personality. The totalitarian state also stands accused of systematic human rights abuses BBC News, (2023). North Korea claimed that its nuclear weapons had a defensive, deterrent purpose, consistent with its claims that ROK and U.S. military trainings were “preparations for an 'invasion' of the North.” Its claims of such U.S. hostility have always been difficult to understand: The United States has diligently avoided any military attacks against North Korea, fearing that war with the North would offer almost no benefits and impose substantial financial and personnel costs. This has been true even in cases where such an attack would have been justified such as the North capturing the U.S.S. Pueblo in 1968, shooting down an EC-121 aircraft in 1969, committing axe murders to two U.S. military officers in 1976, and sinking the ROK warship Cheonan in 2010. Thus, the NIE extract dismisses the idea that North Korean nuclear weapons are “defensive.” North Korea now has a military doctrine allowing for offensive nuclear weapon use. But North Korea knows that the United States has promised that if the North employs its nuclear weapons, the regime will not survive . And regime survival is Kim Jong-un's number one objective. It is hard to imagine Kim taking this risk unless the regime is being threatened by internal rebellion B. Bennet, (2023). PAST INTERNATIONAL ACTION North Korean Nuclear Negotiations North Korea Joins Nonproliferation Regime December 1985 North Korea ratifies the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), a multilateral agreement whose dozens of signatories have committed to halting the spread of nuclear weapons and technology and promoting peaceful cooperation on nuclear energy. North Korea built its first nuclear facilities in the early 1980s. United States Removes Nukes from South Korea September 1991 The United States announces it will withdraw roughly one hundred nuclear weapons from South Korea as part of the original Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. The agreement between President George H.W. Bush and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, known as the START treaty, limits the deployment of offensive nuclear weapons abroad. Koreas Agree to Denuclearize Peninsula January 1992 The governments of North and South Korea agree to “not test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deploy, or use nuclear weapons,” as well as ban nuclear reprocessing and uranium enrichment facilities. The treaty also commits the two Koreas to use nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes. North Korea Threatens NPT Widrawal March 1993-June 1993 Pyongyang rejects inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and announces its intent to leave the NPT. However, the country suspends its withdrawal following talks with U.S. diplomats in New York. Pyongyang agrees to comply with IAEA safeguards, including inspections at seven declared nuclear sites. The first inspections take place in March 1994. Carter Visits North Korea June 1994 Amid escalating tensions on the peninsula, Jimmy Carter becomes the first former U.S. president to visit North Korea, where he meets with Kim Il-sung, the country’s founder. Carter’s trip paves the way for a bilateral deal between the United States and North Korea. Kim dies weeks later and is succeeded by his son, Kim Jong-il. Deal Freezes Pyongyang’s Nuclear Program October 21, 1994 The United States and North Korea sign the Agreed Framework, in which North Korea commits to freezing its illicit plutonium weapons program and halting construction on nuclear reactors, in Geneva. In exchange, the United States pledges to provide sanctions relief, aid, oil, and two light-water reactors for civilian use. Earlier in the year, the CIA assessed that North Korea had produced one or two nuclear weapons. Allies Found Kedo March 1995 The United States, Japan, and South Korea establish the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) to implement the 1994 Agreed Framework and oversee the financing and construction of the two light-water reactors. KEDO breaks ground in August 1997. North Korea Imposes Missile Moratorium September 13, 1999 North Korea agrees to suspend testing of long-range missiles following talks with the United States; in exchange, the United States eases economic sanctions for the first time since the beginning of the Korean War in 1950. First Inter-Korean Summit June 2000 South Korean President Kim Dae-jung meets with Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang for the first summit between Korean leaders since the peninsula’s division five decades prior. The rapprochement results in a number of joint commercial and cultural projects, including construction of an industrial complex and the reunification of families separated during the war. Following the summit, the United States eases sanctions further, allowing some trade and investment. Washington and Pyongyang Host Goodwill Trips October 2000 North Korean General Jo Myong-rok meets with U.S. President Bill Clinton in Washington, making Jo the highest-ranking North Korean official to visit the United States. A few weeks later, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright travels to North Korea to discuss the country’s ballistic missile program and missile technology exports. The diplomatic overtures lead to missile talks in November, but Clinton’s presidency ends without making additional nuclear or missile deals. Bush Challenges North’s Commitment to Deal January 2001-April 2002 President George W. Bush takes office in 2001 and pursues a harder line toward Pyongyang, characterizing North Korea, along with Iraq and Iran, as part of an “axis of evil” and imposing new sanctions. In April 2002, Bush states in a memorandum that the United States will not certify North Korea’s compliance with the 1994 Agreed Framework, due to a rocket test and missile-related transfers to Iran. Pyongyang Exits the NPT October 2002- January 2003 Pyongyang admits to running a secret uranium-enrichment program to power nuclear weapons, a violation of the Agreed Framework, the NPT, and agreements between North and South Korea. By December, the country says it will reactivate its nuclear plant in Yongbyon. The following month, North Korea withdraws from the NPT after disrupting IAEA monitoring equipment and expelling inspectors. Six Party Talks Open August 09, 2003 Amid an increasingly tense climate, South and North Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the United States launch a diplomatic initiative known as the Six Party Talks. There are no breakthroughs during the first round of talks, in Beijing, where North Korea denies having a uranium-enrichment program. US Freezes North Korean Funds September 12, 2005 The U.S. Treasury Department designates the Macau-based Banco Delta Asia a primary money laundering concern and freezes $25 million North Korea holds there. These funds will prove to be a sticking point in negotiations between the United States and North Korea. Disarmament Principles Emerge From Talks September 19, 2005 Despite stalemates at previous rounds of the Six Party Talks, its members agree to a joint declaration in which North Korea commits to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and to implement IAEA safeguards and the terms of the NPT. As part of the agreement, the United States asserts that it has no intention of attacking North Korea. North Korea Shocks with First Nuclear Test October 09, 2006 North Korea carries out an underground nuclear test with an explosion yield estimated around one to two kilotons. In July, North Korea tested seven short-, medium-, and long-range ballistic missiles. These tests prompt the UN Security Council to issue unanimous condemnations and trade sanctions. Six Party Members Agree to Action Plan February 13, 2007 North Korea commits to halting operations at its Yongbyon nuclear facilities in exchange for fifty thousand tons of oil. The deal is part of an action plan agreed to by the Six Party members to implement the September 2005 statement. Nuclear Diplomacy inches Forward October 2007 After the United States releases the $25 million in frozen North Korean funds in June, the Six Party Talks resume. Its participants issue a joint statement outlining the North’s commitment to declare all of its nuclear programs, disable its facilities, and stop the export of nuclear material and technology. In exchange, the North is to receive nine hundred thousand tons of oil and the United States pledges to remove the country from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. South Korea’s New Leader Takes Harder Line February 2008 Lee Myung-bak is elected president of South Korea. As the leader of a conservative government, Lee shifts from his predecessors’ push for reconciliation to exert more pressure on North Korea to denuclearize. He takes office a few months after the second inter-Korean summit, held between the North’s Kim Jong-il and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun. North Korea Declares Nuclear Sites June 2008 Pyongyang declares its fifteen nuclear sites to Beijing, the chair of the Six Party Talks, stating that it had thirty kilograms of plutonium and used two kilograms in its 2006 nuclear test. In turn, Bush rescinds some restrictions on trade with North Korea, announces plans to take the country off the list of state sponsors of terrorism, and waives some sanctions. In October, the U.S. State Department announces a preliminary agreement with North Korea on verifications. However, by December, discussions break down because of disagreements on verification procedures. Obama Attempts Diplomatic Restart January 2009-December 2009 President Barack Obama takes office signaling a willingness to revive the Six Party Talks, but these efforts are initially rebuffed by North Korea, which launches a rocket believed to be a modified version of its long-range ballistic missile. It also ejects international monitors from its nuclear facilities in April and the following month tests a second nuclear device, which carries a yield of two to eight kilotons. In December, Obama administration officials hold their first bilateral meetings with their North Korean counterparts. North Korea reveals Uranium Plant November 2010 Pyongyang reveals its new centrifuge for uranium enrichment, which was built secretively and swiftly, as well as a light-water reactor under construction, suggesting that despite sanctions, the regime is committed to advancing its weapons program. The news comes amid escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula after forty-six South Koreans were killed when a patrol ship, the Cheonan, was torpedoed and then sank in March. The South blames North Korea for the attack and cuts economic ties. The North denies its involvement and later fires artillery at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong. North Korea Heralds New Leader December 2011 Kim Jong-il dies after seventeen years in power and is succeeded by his son Kim Jong- un. The not-yet-thirty-year-old Kim is relatively unknown, and foreign observers anticipate a political struggle until he begins to assert power. Nuclear Operations Briefly Suspended February 29, 2012 Following a meeting between the United States and North Korea in Beijing, North Korea commits to suspend its uranium enrichment operations in Yongbyon, invite IAEA monitors, and carry out a moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear testing. In exchange, the United States is to provide tons of food aid. The deal falls apart after North Korea launches a rocket and displays road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles at a military parade. North’s Nuclear Program Advances Despite Isolation February 2013-December 2016 Diplomacy stalls for several years as the Obama administration opts for “strategic patience,” in which the United States and its partners ratchet up sanctions in hopes that the regime will return to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, North Korea carries out nuclear tests in February 2013 and again in January and September 2016. Its ballistic missile capabilities improve, with more tests of short-, medium-, and long-range missiles carried out under Kim Jong-un than under his father and grandfather combined. Trump Ratchets Up Rhetoric January 2017-November 2017 President Donald Trump is inaugurated in January 2017 and shifts course in U.S. policy toward North Korea. In September, Pyongyang conducts its sixth nuclear test, which it claims is a hydrogen bomb and raises international alarm due to the yield of its explosion. Trump predesignates North Korea a state sponsor of terrorism in November. U.S.-North Korean relations during Trump’s first year are volatile as Pyongyang boasts it can reach U.S. soil with nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles and the Trump administration threatens a military strike. North Korea Ends Negotiations with US October 06, 2019 During their first working-level talks since February, in Stockholm, Sweden, U.S. and North Korean officials fail to reach an agreement. A spokesperson for North Korea’s Foreign Ministry says Pyongyang will not resume negotiations until Washington takes a “substantial step” to end what it calls “hostile” policies such as strict sanctions and military exercises with South Korea. This marks the start of a period with nearly zero communication between U.S. and North Korean officials. Inter-Korean Dialogue Disrupted June 09, 2020 North Korean state media announces that the country will “shut down all contact” with South Korea after it called on Seoul to prevent activists from sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border. Days later, North Korea destroys a joint liaison office set up in 2018 to improve inter-Korean ties. North Korea briefly restores communication lines in August 2021 but shuts them down again after South Korea participates in military exercises with the United States. Communication lines are restored again that October. North Korea Ramps Up Missile Tests January 2022 North Korea conducts seven missile tests in January, more than in all of 2021. Washington urges the UN Security Council to impose more sanctions on Pyongyang, but Beijing and Moscow block the proposal. Kim suggests that North Korea could end its selfimposed moratorium on testing long-range ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, which was established in 2018, to counter the United States’ “hostile moves,” including the push for additional sanctions. At the end of the month, North Korea test-launches an intermediate-range ballistic missile. It is believed to be the country’s most powerful launch since late 2017, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says it is a violation of the moratorium. COUNTRY POLICY The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) remains one of the most repressive countries in the world. Ruled by the authoritarian leader Kim Jong Un, the government responded to international challenges and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021 with deepened isolation and repression, and maintained fearful obedience in the population through threats of execution, imprisonment, enforced disappearances, and forced hard labor in detention and prison camps. Freedom of Movement Moving from one province to another, or traveling abroad, without prior approval remains illegal in North Korea. The government continues to strictly enforce a ban on “illegal” travel to China. Border buffer zones set up in August 2020, which extend one to two kilometers from the northern border, operated continuously in 2021 with guards ordered to “unconditionally shoot” on sight anyone entering without permission. There were reports of border guards shooting dead North Koreans trying to cross the border. Freedom of Expression and Information The North Korean government does not respect the rights to freedom of thought, opinion, expression or information. All media is strictly controlled. Accessing phones, computers, televisions, radios or media content that are not sanctioned by the government is illegal, and considered “anti-socialist behavior” to be severely punished. The government regularly cracks down on unsanctioned media consumption. It also jams Chinese mobile phone services at the northern border, and arrests those communicating with people outside of the country, or connecting outsiders to people inside the country. Forced Labor The North Korean government routinely and systematically requires forced labor from much of its population to sustain its economy. The government’s forced labor demands target women and children through the Women’s Union or schools; workers at state-owned enterprises or deployed abroad; detainees in short-term hard labor detention centers (rodong dallyeondae); and prisoners at long-term ordinary prison camps (kyohwaso) and political prison camps (kwanliso). Marginalized Groups and Women and Girls North Korea uses songbun, a socio-political classification system that groups people into “loyal,” “wavering,” or “hostile” classes, and is used to justify politically determined discrimination in employment, residence, and schooling. Pervasive corruption allows some maneuvering around the strictures of the songbun system, with government officials accepting bribes to grant permissions, permit certain market activities, or avoid possible punishments. Key International Actors North Korea has ratified five core human rights treaties, but the government has made no apparent effort to implement these treaties or otherwise demonstrate respect for human right. A 2014 COI report found the government committed crimes against humanity, including extermination, murder, enslavement, torture, imprisonment, and rape, forced abortion, and other forms of sexual violence. It recommended the UN Security Council refer the situation to the International Criminal Court. The North Korean government has repeatedly denied the COI’s findings and refuses to cooperate with the Seoul-based Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights or the UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in North Korea. POSSIBLE SOLUTION Two Possible Solutions According to Experts Why we’ve fallen short and why that’s no longer an option By: Wendy Sherman And Evans Revere North Korea’s isolated dictators have long believed that nuclear weapons will ensure regime survival against U.S. military power, enabling it to unite the Korean Peninsula on its terms. Successive U.S. Administrations have tried various strategies to thwart the dangerous trajectory of the regime. Some have made progress, only to be set back by North Korean perfidy, by changes in policy direction and by cautious partners and allies in the region who wanted a different approach. We now know that for much of this time Pyongyang was working to preserve and even expand its nuclear program. North Korea has several nuclear weapons and is perfecting the missiles that are designed to deliver them. The North Korea challenge is, as President Obama reportedly told then President-elect Donald Trump, the most dangerous and difficult security challenge he will face. The U.S. has tried diplomatic inducements, including normalization of relations, security guarantees, economic and food aid and confidence-building steps. Nothing has produced lasting results. The U.S. and its partners pursued “freezes.” But North Korea agreed to several freezes of its nuclear-weapons program but still found ways to violate the deals, and when caught refused international monitoring and verification. U.S. Administrations have tried sanctions but have faced a China reluctant to enforce them and an inadequate international response. The regime clearly wants nuclear weapons more than any inducement. And it has not changed its behavior in the face of sanctions. But no U.S. Administration, working with regional leaders and the international community, has ever arrayed all its tools and advantages simultaneously and overwhelmingly to end North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program, forcing the regime to choose between nuclear weapons and regime survival. Compelling Pyongyang to make that stark choice offers the best way forward. A successful U.S. strategy will entail risk, but a growing North Korean nuclear threat and the possibility that miscalculation could lead to war means that we must do all that we can, and soon, to deal with the challenge of Pyongyang. Sherman was Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs from 2011 to 2015. Revere was CEO of the Korea Society from 2007 to 2010 Avoiding the temptation to do nothing BY CHRIS HILL There are, no doubt, problems and even crises in the world that go away on their own. The North Korean nuclear issue is not one of them. The growing number of tests in recent years, including two nuclear explosions in 2016 alone, suggests that North Korea has made development, deployment and the capability to deliver nuclear weapons a national aspiration. With its accelerating intercontinental ballistic missile program, it has made clear that it seeks a capacity to strike targets far from the Korean Peninsula, namely the continental U.S. Yet after decades of this, it is tempting just to do nothing. After all, Pakistan developed and tested nuclear weapons with little international reaction. So did India. And Israel. Why can’t North Korea do the same? The answer lies in the essence of the North Korean state. North Korea has little interest in being a member of the international community, in having allies or in collective security. Trade is dumbed down to a series of bargaining transactions, and sneers at international standards of behavior. Some argue that North Korea wants nuclear weapons for regime security, an analysis that would suggest that North Korea is simply warning predatory states to stay away or else. In fact, North Korea’s contempt for its neighbors suggests that it would hold them hostage with its nuclear weapons. North Korea famously threatened to reduce South Korea’s capital city to a “sea of fire.” Such a threat takes on new meaning when a country holds nuclear weapons. While South Korea and Japan are protected by their alliances with the U.S. and its nuclear umbrella, how long would that situation hold? If North Korea invaded South Korea (again), would the U.S. come to its defense if North Korea could threaten the U.S. with a nuclear strike? Would the South Korean people believe in a certain U.S. response? Would proliferation stop with South Korea and Japan? What about Taiwan? The Non-Proliferation Treaty would quickly be reduced to tatters, and so would the sense of security in the region. And if North Korea fields a deliverable nuclear weapon that could reach the U.S. in the next four years, would President Trump want to face the American people with the explanation that he weighed the options and decided that doing nothing was best? A career foreign-service officer, Hill was ambassador to South Korea from 2004 to 2005 and Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs from 2005 to 2009 REFERENCES BBC News (July 19, 2023), Re: North Korea Country Profile https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-15256929 Bruce W. Bennet (November 27, 2023), Deterrence of North Korean Limited Nuclear Attacks https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/11/deterrence-of-north-korean-limitednuclear-attacks.html Chris Hill, Avoiding the temptation to do nothing https://time.com/north-korea-opinion/ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023. North Korean Nuclear Negotiations 1985-2022 https://www.cfr.org/timeline/north-korean-nuclear-negotiations Wendy Shernan and Evan Revere, Why we’ve fallen short and why that’s no longer an option https://time.com/north-korea-opinion/