Case Studies
Kenya—a country with a high rate of natural population growth
Location
Kenya is located in East Africa, with coastline on the Indian Ocean.
Climate
Kenya’s temperatures are very high all year round due to its location close to the equator.
Population growth
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Between 1969 and 2009 the country’s population increased from 10.9 million to 38.6 million.
By 2016, Kenya’s population had reached 45.4 million.
Even though Kenya’s total fertility rate is falling, the population will still grow to 65.9 million
by 2030. This will be almost six times the population in 1969.
Other key factors
- A high number of births per woman: in 2016 the average in Kenya was 3.9 children per
woman, compared with the current global average of 2.5.
- Falling death rates, particularly in infant mortality: in 2016 it was estimated that infant
mortality in Kenya had fallen to 39/1000, compared with the average for Africa of 57/1000.
- A steady and significant increase in life expectancy: in 2016 life expectancy was over 62 years
in Kenya compared with 60 for Africa.
Causes
Human
- The poorest women have the highest unmet for family planning.
- Many adolescents have sex before age 15.
Impacts
Social
- Kenya has a very high youth dependency ratio: 42% of the population is under age 15.
- A lower amount of land per capita available to farmers and their children. 67% of farmers
thought that the size of their land holding was not sufficient for their children.
- Unpredictable weather patterns and the impact of HIV/AIDS have been a major contributor
to high poverty levels.
Economic
- Young people who cannot find work on the land often migrate to urban areas.
- Youth unemployment: the rate of population increase is greater than the rate of job creation.
- It is estimated that 50% of Kenya’s population will live in urban areas by 2033.
Political
- Rapid population increase puts heavy pressure on a country’s resources, particularly food,
water, housing, health and education.
Evaluation
- While clear progress has been made in health, education, infrastructure and other aspects of
society, a significant proportion of the population continue to live in fragile conditions with
sub-standard access to water, sanitation and energy.