Interest Rate & Currency Swaps Chapter Fourteen Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter Outline • • • • • • • • • Types of Swaps Size of the Swap Market The Swap Bank Swap Market Quotations Interest Rate Swaps Currency Swaps Variations of Basic Interest Rate and Currency Swaps Risks of Interest Rate and Currency Swaps Is the Swap Market Efficient? Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-2 Definitions • In a swap, two counterparties agree to a contractual arrangement wherein they will exchange cash flows at periodic intervals. • There are two types of interest rate swaps. – Single currency interest rate swap • “Plain vanilla” fixed-for-floating swaps are often just called interest rate swaps. – Cross-currency interest rate swap • This is often called a currency swap; fixed for fixed rate debt service in two (or more) currencies. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-3 Size of the Swap Market • In 2015 the notational principal of: – Interest rate swaps was $289 trillion USD. – Currency swaps was $22.7 trillion USD. • The four most common currencies used to denominate interest rate and currency swaps are the euro, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, and the British pound sterling, with the fifth most common currency being the Canadian dollar for interest rate swaps and the Swiss franc for currency swaps. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-4 EXHIBIT 14.1 Size of OTC Interest Rate and Currency Swap Markets: Total Notional Principal Outstanding Amounts in Billions of U.S.D. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-5 The Swap Bank • Swap bank is a generic term to describe a financial institution that facilitates swaps between counterparties. • The swap bank can serve as either a broker or a dealer. – As a broker, the swap bank matches counterparties but does not assume any of the risks of the swap. – As a dealer, the swap bank stands ready to accept either side of a currency swap and then later lay off the risk, or match it with a counterparty. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-6 Swap Market Quotations • Swap banks will tailor the terms of interest rate and currency swaps to customers’ needs. • They also make a market in “plain vanilla” swaps and provide quotes for these. Since the swap banks are dealers for these swaps, there is a bid-ask spread. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-7 EXHIBIT 14.2 Interest Rate Swap Quotations Euro-€ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 15 20 25 30 year year year year year year year year year year year year year year year Bid −0.16 −0.16 −0.14 −0.08 −0.01 0.09 0.2 0.32 0.43 0.53 0.7 0.88 1.04 1.06 1.08 Ask −0.13 −0.14 −0.10 −0.04 0.03 0.12 0.23 0.35 0.46 0.55 0.73 0.92 1.06 1.10 1.09 £ Sterling Swiss Franc USD JPY Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask 0.72 0.74 −0.73 −0.65 0.8 0.81 −0.08 −0.06 0.76 0.77 −0.73 −0.70 0.94 0.95 −0.14 −0.13 0.82 0.84 −0.72 −0.68 1.05 1.05 −0.16 −0.14 0.89 0.91 −0.67 −0.64 1.15 1.15 −0.14 −0.12 1.06–1.10 means the1.24 swap1.24 bank will−0.09 pay 0.97 0.99 −0.60 −0.57 −0.11 fixed-rate euro −0.49 payments 1.06 1.08 −0.52 1.33 at 1.331.06% −0.08 −0.04 1.16 1.17 −0.43 −0.40 1.41LIBOR 1.42 −0.04 0 against receiving USD or it will 1.24 1.26 −0.35 −0.31 1.49 1.49 0 0.04 receive fixed-rate euro payments at 1.32 1.34 −0.25 −0.23 1.56 1.56 0.04 0.08 1.10% against 1.39 1.4 −0.17 receiving −0.14 1.62 USD 1.62 LIBOR. 0.07 0.11 1.5 25 1.52 −0.07 −0.02 NA NA 0.15 0.17 For years. 1.61 1.63 0.06 0.11 1.87 1.87 0.28 0.31 1.67 1.68 0.18 0.23 2 2 0.42 0.45 1.66 1.67 NA NA 2.07 2.07 NA NA 1.65 1.66 0.29 0.34 2.1 2.11 0.48 0.5 Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-8 Swap Quotations: Bid-Ask Spread 1.06–1.10 means the swap bank will pay fixed-rate euro payments at 1.06% against receiving USD LIBOR or it will receive fixed-rate euro payments at 1.10% against paying dollar USD LIBOR. Firm B €1.10% USD LIBOR Swap Bank €1.06% USD LIBOR Firm A While most swaps are quoted against “flat” dollar LIBOR, “off-market” swaps are available where one party pays LIBOR plus or minus some number. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-9 Example of an Plain Vanilla Interest Rate Swap Fixed Floating A 5% LIBOR B 5.50% LIBOR + .20% • Consider Firms A and B; each firm wants to borrow $40 million for three years. – Firm A wants to finance an interest-rate-sensitive asset and therefore wants to borrow at a floating rate. A has good credit and can borrow at LIBOR. – Firm B wants to finance an interest-rate-insensitive asset and thus wants to borrow at a fixed rate. B has less-than-perfect credit and can borrow fixed at 5.5%. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-10 Example of an Interest Rate Swap: Firm A 5.0 % Firm 5.10% Swap A LIBOR Bank Bank X If Firm A borrows from their bank at 5.0% fixed and takes up the swap bank on their offer of 5.1—5.2, they can convert their fixed rate 5% debt into a floating rate debt at LIBOR – 0.10%. A’s all-in-cost = LIBOR – 0.10% = 5.0% + LIBOR – 5.10% Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-11 Example of an Interest Rate Swap: Firm B Swap Bank Firm B LIBOR 5.20% R BO LI .2% B’s all-in-cost = 5.40% = –LIBOR + LIBOR + 0.20% + 5.20% + If Firm B borrows floating from their bank at LIBOR + 0.20% and takes up the swap bank on their offer of 5.1—5.2, they can convert their floating rate debt into a fixed rate debt at 5.40%. Bank Y Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-12 Example of an Interest Rate Swap: Swap Bank Firm 5.10% Swap A LIBOR Bank Firm B LIBOR 5.20% The swap bank makes 10 basis points on the deal. The swap bank’s all-in-cost: –0.10% = –LIBOR + LIBOR – 5.20% + 5.10% Note that a negative cost means a profit. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-13 Example of an Interest Rate Swap: All Parties The notional size is $40 million. The tenor is for 3 years. + A earns $40,000 per year on the swap. .2% Bank X Firm B LIBOR 5.20% R BO LI 5.0 % Firm 5.10% Swap A LIBOR Bank B earns $40,000 per year on the swap. The swap bank earns $40,000 per year. Bank Y Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-14 Using a Swap to Transform a Liability • Firm A has transformed a fixed rate liability into a floater. – A is borrowing at LIBOR – .10% – A savings of 10 bp. Bank 5.0% Firm 5.10% Swap A LIBOR Bank X • Firm B has transformed a floating rate liability into a fixed rate liability. – B is borrowing at 5.40% – A savings of 10 bp. Swap Bank Firm LIBOR + .2% B LIBOR 5.20% Bank Y Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-15 What about the Principal? • In our “plain vanilla” interest-only interest rate swap, we did not mention swapping the Notational Principal. • It could be the case that Firm A exchanged principal with their lender, Bank X, and Firm B exchanged principal with their outside lender, Bank Y. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-16 Cash Flows of an Interest-Only Swap: T = 0 00 ,00 0 $4 0,0 00 ,00 Firm B 0,0 Bank X Swap Bank $4 0 Firm A Bank Y Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-17 Cash Flows of an Interest-Only Swap: T = 1 Assume LIBORT=0 = 3%. The swap bank earns $40,000 per year. Firm A saves $40,000 per year relative to borrowing at LIBOR = 3%. Firm B saves $40,000 per year relative to borrowing at 5.5%. Bank Y 00 $2 Firm B $1,200,000 $2,080,000 ,0 80 Bank X Swap Bank ,2 $1 ,00 0,0 00 Firm $2,040,000 A $1,200,000 Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-18 Cash Flows of an Interest-Only Swap: T = 2 Assume LIBORT=1 = 4%. $1,600,000 Swap Bank Firm B $1,600,000 $2,080,000 Firm B saves $40,000 per year relative to borrowing at 5.5%. $2 Bank X 00 Firm A saves $40,000 per year relative to borrowing at LIBOR = 4%. 0,0 ,00 The swap bank earns $40,000 per year. ,68 0,0 $2,040,000 $1 00 Firm A Bank Y Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-19 Cash Flows of an Interest-Only Swap: T = 3 Assume LIBORT=2 = 5%. $2,040,000 $2,000,000 Swap Bank Firm B $2,000,000 $2,080,000 ,00 00 Firm B saves $40,000 per year relative to borrowing at 5.5%. Bank Y 2,0 $4 Bank X 0 ,00 Firm A saves $40,000 per year relative to borrowing at LIBOR = 4%. 80 2,0 The swap bank earns $40,000 per year. $4 0 Firm A Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-20 Example of a Currency Swap • Consider Firms A and B: – Firm A is a U.S. MNC who wants to finance a euro denominated asset in Italy, and therefore wants to borrow €40 million for 3 years. A can borrow euros at 6%. – Firm B is a French MNC who wants to finance a dollar denominated asset, and therefore wants to borrow $60 million for 3 years. B can borrow dollars at 8%. $ € A $7% €6% B $8% €5% • The exchange rate at inception was $1.50 = €1.00. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-21 Example of a Currency Swap: Swap Quotes Suppose that the Swap Bank publishes these quotes. The convention is to quote against U.S. dollar LIBOR. Euro-€ Bid Ask 3 year 5.00 5.20 U.S. $ Bid Ask 7.00 7.20 Firm A wants to finance a euro-denominated asset in Italy and wants to borrow euros. It can borrow euros at 6% or it can borrow euros at A 5.2% by using a currency swap. $ € $7% €6% B $8% €5% Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-22 Example of a Currency Swap: Firm A Euro-€ U.S. $ $ € Bid Ask Bid Ask A $7% €6% 5.00 5.20 7.00 7.20 B $8% €5% LIBOR (The convention is to quote against U.S. dollar LIBOR.) $7.0% $60m $60m Suppose that Firm A borrows $60m locally at $7% and then trades $60m for €40m at spot. Firm A then enters into 2 fixed for floating swaps. Firm A €5.2% Swap Bank LIBOR €40m Bank X $7.0% FOREX Market Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-23 Example of a Currency Swap: Firm B Euro-€ U.S. $ $ € Bid Ask Bid Ask A $7% €6% 5.00 5.20 7.00 7.20 B $8% €5% (The convention is to quote against U.S. dollar LIBOR.) LIBOR $7.2% Firm B €40m LIBOR €40m €5% €5.0% $60m Swap Bank FOREX Market Bank Y Suppose that Firm B borrows €40m locally at €5%, then trades €40m for $60m. Firm B then enters into 2 fixed for floating swaps. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-24 Example of a Currency Swap: Swap Bank The swap bank earns 40bp per year (20bp in $ and 20bp in €). €5.2% Swap Bank Firm B €5.0% $7.2% The notional size is $60m. The tenor is for 3 years. Firm A earns 80bp per year on the swap and hedges exchange rate risk. Bank X Firm B earns 80bp per year on the swap and hedges exchange rate risk. .0% $7 $7.0% €5 .0% Firm A Bank Y Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-25 Cash Flows of the Swaps: T = 0 0 0,0 00 ,00 €4 0 0,0 00 ,00 0 ,00 $6 00 Foreign Exchange Spot Market 0,0 $6 0,0 00 ,00 Firm B €4 Bank X Swap Bank 0 ,00 00 0 0,0 ,00 €4 00 0,0 $6 0 Firm A Bank Y Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-26 Cash Flows of the Swaps: T = 1 LIBORT=0 = 3%. Firm A $1.8m $1.8m $4.2m $4.32m €2.08m Swap Bank $1.8m $1.8m Firm B’s all-in-cost = $4.32 or 7.2% of $60m m Firm A’s all-in-cost = €2.08m or 5.2% of €40m €2 m The swap bank earns €80,000 + $120,000 or .002×€40m + .002×$60m per year. .2 4 $ Bank X €2m Firm B Bank Y Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-27 Cash Flows of the Swaps: T = 2 LIBORT=1 = 4%. Firm A $2.4m $2.4m $4.2m $4.32m €2.08m Swap Bank $2.4m $2.4m Firm B’s all-in-cost = $4.32 or 7.2% of $60m m Firm A’s all-in-cost = €2.08m or 5.2% of €40m €2 m The swap bank earns €80,000 + $120,000 or .002×€40m + .002×$60m per year. .2 4 $ Bank X €2m Firm B Bank Y Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-28 Cash Flows of the Swaps: T = 3 $3m LIBORT=2 = 5%. $4.2m €2.08m $4.32m €2m Firm B $3m $3m 0m $6 0m 0m €4 $6 $6 0m 2m €4 2m . 4 Bank X Swap Bank €4 Firm A $3m Bank Y Foreign Exchange Forward Market Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-29 Equivalency of Currency Swap Debt Service Obligations • We can assume that IRP holds between the €5% euro rate and the $7% dollar rate. – This is reasonable since these rates are, respectively, the best rates available for each counterparty who is well known in its national market. – According to IRP: t (1 + i$) St($/€) = S0($/€) × (1 + i€)t $1.50×(1.07)1 $1.5286 S1($/€) = 1 = €1.00×(1.05) €1.00 $ € A $7% €6% B $8% €5% Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-30 IRR 0 1 2 3 7.00% –$60.00 $4.20 $4.20 $64.20 5.00% –€40.00 €2.75 €2.70 €40.44 The swap bank could borrow $60m at 7% and use a set of 3 forward contracts to redenominate the bond as a 5% euro bond. €1.00 €1.00×(1.05) –€40m = –$60m× €2.75m = $4.20m × $1.50 $1.50×(1.07) €1.00×(1.05)2 €2.70m = $4.20m × $1.50×(1.07)2 €1.00×(1.05)3 €40.44m = $64.20m × $1.50×(1.07)3 Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-31 IRR 0 1 2 3 7.00% –$60.00 $3.06 $3.12 $66.67 5.00% –€40.00 €2.00 €2.00 €42.00 The swap bank could borrow €40m at 5% and use a set of 3 forward contracts to redenominate the bond as a 7% dollar bond. $1.50 $1.50×(1.07) –$60m = –€40m× $3.06m = €2m × × €1.00 €1.00×(1.05) $1.50×(1.07)2 $3.12m = €2m ×× €1.00×(1.05)2 $1.50×(1.07)3 $66.67m = €42m× €1.00×(1.05)3 Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-32 The Quality Spread Differential • The Quality Spread Differential (QSD) represents the potential gains from a swap that can be shared between the counterparties and the swap bank. • There is no reason to presume that the gains will be shared equally. • The QSD is calculated as the difference between the differences. $ € A $7% €6% B $8% €5% QSD 1% – –1% = 2% Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-33 Variations of Basic Currency and Interest Rate Swaps • Currency swaps: – Fixed for fixed – Fixed for floating – Floating for floating – Amortizing • Interest rate swaps: – Zero-for floating – Floating for floating • For a swap to be possible, a QSD must exist. Beyond that, creativity is the only limit. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-34 Risks of Interest Rate and Currency Swaps • Interest rate risk – Interest rates might move against the swap bank after it has only gotten half of a swap on the books, or if it has an unhedged position. • Basis risk – Basis risk may occur if the floating rates of the two counterparties are not pegged to the same index. • Exchange rate risk – In the example of a currency swap given earlier, the swap bank would be worse off if the pound appreciated. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-35 Risks of Interest Rate and Currency Swaps (continued) • Credit risk – This is the major risk faced by a swap dealer, the risk that a counterparty will default on its end of the swap. • Mismatch risk – It’s hard to find a counterparty that wants to borrow the right amount of money for the right amount of time. • Sovereign risk – The risk that a country will impose exchange rate restrictions that will interfere with performance on the swap. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-36 Valuation of an Existing Swap • A swap is a derivative security, so valuation can be done with reference to the value of the underlying assets. • How to value a swap: – Any swap’s value is the difference in the present values of the payment streams that are incoming and outgoing. – Plain vanilla, fixed for floating swaps get valued just like a pair of bonds. – Currency swaps get valued just like two nests of currency forward contracts. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-37 Swap Valuation Example • A currency swap has a remaining life of 18 months. • It involves exchanging interest at 14% on £20 million for interest at 10% on $30 million once a year. • The term structure of interest rates is currently flat in both the U.S. and the U.K. If the swap were negotiated today, the interest rates exchanged would be $8% and £11%. All rates were quoted with annual compounding. • The current exchange rate is $1.65 = £1. • What is the value of the swap (in USD) to the party paying dollars? Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-38 Swap Valuation Example (continued) 18 6 £2.8m £2.8m –$3m –$3m Value of the swap to the party paying dollars: 0 £2.8m £2.8m $1.65 $8,335,659 = (1.11)½ + (1.11)3/2 × £1 –$5,559,669 = –$3m ½ + –$3m 3/2 (1.08) (1.08) $2,775,990 Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-39 Second Swap Valuation Example • Find the dollar value today to the party paying dollars of a 7-year old swap with 3 years remaining maturity. • The swap calls for exchanging interest only on €10m at 5% for $15m at 3%. – Semiannual payments, and the last payment was yesterday. – Today’s exchange rate is $1.30/€ and the AAA rate is 2% in the U.S. and 2.5% in the euro zone. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-40 Swap Valuation Example 2 (continued) CPT N 6 I/Y 2.5% PV -€1,436,502.48 Find the value of the swap as the net value of a portfolio of two bonds: 1. Long a euro-denominated bond and 2. Short a dollar-denominated bond PMT €250,000 = (€10m × .05) /2 (semi-annual pay bond) FV €0 (NOT €10m since this is an interest-only swap.) dollar value = €1,436,502.48 × $1.30/€1 = $1,867,453.22 CPT N 6 I/Y 2.0% PV -$1,303,982.21 PMT $225,000 = ($15m × .03) /2 (semi-annual pay bond) FV $0 (NOT $15m since this is an interest-only swap.) The value of this swap to the party paying dollars is $563,471.02 (= $1,867,453.22 – Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, $1,303,982.21). Inc. All rights reserved. 14-41 Swap Market Efficiency • Swaps offer market completeness, and that has accounted for their existence and growth. • Swaps assist in tailoring financing to the type desired by a particular borrower. Since not all types of debt instruments are available to all types of borrowers, both counterparties can benefit (as well as the swap dealer) through financing that is more suitable for their asset maturity structures. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-42 Summary • The basic interest rate swap is a fixed-for-floating rate swap in which one counterparty exchanges the interest payments of a fixed-rate debt obligation for the floating interest payments of the other counterparty. Both debt obligations are denominated in the same currency. • In a currency swap, one counterparty exchanges the debt service obligations of a bond denominated in one currency for the debt service obligations of the other counterparty, which are denominated in another currency. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-43 Summary (continued) • A swap bank is a generic term to describe a financial institution that facilitates the swap between counterparties. The swap bank serves as either a broker or a dealer. • An example of a basic interest rate swap was presented. It was noted that a necessary condition for a swap to be feasible was the existence of a quality spread differential between the default-risk premiums on the fixed-rate and floating-rate interest rates of the two counterparties. • Pricing an interest rate swap after inception was illustrated. It was shown that after inception, the value of an interest rate swap to a counterparty should be the difference in the present values of the payment streams the counterparty will receive and pay on the notional principal. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-44 Summary (concluded) • A detailed example of a basic currency swap was presented. It was shown that the debt service obligations of the counterparties in a currency swap are effectively equivalent to one another in cost. Nominal differences can be explained by the set of international parity relationships. • Pricing a currency swap after inception was illustrated. It was shown that after inception, the value of a currency swap to a counterparty should be the difference in the present values of the payment stream the counterparty will receive in one currency and pay in the other currency, converted to one or the other currency denomination. Copyright © 2018 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 14-45