The Paris Climate Accord Murray Lee Eiland Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol is linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which commits parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets. The Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities." The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 and entered into force in February 2005. Rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at Conference of the Parties (COP) 7 in Marrakesh in 2001, and are referred to as the "Marrakesh Accords." Its first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php Introduction The Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015. It entered into force (as the Paris Climate Accord) on 4 November 2016, thirty days after the date on which at least 55 Parties to the Convention accounting in total for at least an estimated 55% of the total global greenhouse gas emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession with the Depositary. 175 Parties have ratified of 197 Parties to the Convention. The primary objective of the agreement is to coordinate efforts of the members in tackling climate change. Science of Climate Change Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations: "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver.“ Since 1970, CO2 emissions have increased by about 90%, with emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contributing about 78% of the total greenhouse gas emissions increase from 1970 to 2011. Agriculture, deforestation, and other land-use changes have been the second-largest contributors. https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/ Highlights of the Paris Agreement The Accord aims in the short term to hold the global temperature at 2°C above industrial levels of carbon production. The long term aim is to limit warming to 1.5°C pre-industrial levels (Dimitrov, 2016). To achieve this goal, member countries are required to develop goals that ensure that warming is limited to 1.5°C. In 2014, the top CO2 emitters were China, the U.S., the EU, India, the Russian Federation, and Japan. Cont.. The second issue emphasized by the agreement is the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Global emissions need to peak as soon as possible (this will take longer for developing countries). Rapid reductions will take place thereafter, in accordance with the best available science. Member countries are expected to develop plans on how to mitigate climate change. These plans must be communicated to the Secretariat of the Convention. Cont.… The Paris Climate Accord focuses more on the processes of mitigating climate change rather than the defined goals (Du Pont et al., 2017). As compared to the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Climate Accord does not stipulate the greenhouse emissions recommended for each member country. The agreement focuses on the individual and collective strategies of mitigating climate change. According to the EU, developed countries intend to continue their existing collective goal to mobilize USD 100 billion per year by 2020 and extend this until 2025. A new and higher goal will be set for after this period. The agreement aims at achieving net-zero emissions at the second half of the century. Nationally Determined Contributions Member countries are required mitigate climate change based on nationally determined contributions (NDCs) (Rogelj et al., 2016). Following limited participation in the Kyoto Protocol and the lack of agreement in Copenhagen in 2009, the EU has been building a broad coalition of developed and developing countries in favor of the Paris Accord. The EU was the first major economy to submit its intended contribution to the new agreement in March 2015. It is already taking steps to implement its target to reduce emissions by at least 40% by 2030. In July 2017, France announced a five-year plan to ban all petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040. NDCs The Conference of the Parties (COP) also played a central role in the development of this agreement. The agreement accompanying the Paris Accord has various complementary functions. The first function is to provide a structured approach under which the Paris Climate Accord is adopted. The second function is the guidelines on the actions recommended to deal with climate change pre-2020. The third function is to regulate the actions that are recommended to address climate change before the Paris Agreement comes to full force. Finally, it entails the guidelines and suggestions of best strategies for developing the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). National Action Each member party of the Paris Agreement is required to prepare nationally determined contributions (NDCs). These NDCs must be communicated to the secretary of the convention and maintained. The agreement recommends that the NDCs should be communicated and reviewed at a minimum every five years (Hulme, 2016). The reviewed NDCs must indicate progress from the previously communicated NDCs. The Paris Climate Accord allows the member parties to collaborate in the development and assessment of the NDCs. Cont.. The parties are urged to use regional economic organizations (such as EU) to develop these NDCs. Two parties can also collaborate, but each party remains responsible for communicating the mitigation strategies to the secretary of the convention (Rogelj et al., 2017). Parties are also allowed to issue and transfer carbon units. The Accord allows public and private entities to support mitigation projects. In the process, tradable carbon units can be issued. One carbon credit is equal to one ton of carbon dioxide. Buying and Selling Carbon The Kyoto Protocol provides for three mechanisms that enable countries or operators in developed countries to acquire greenhouse gas reduction credits: Joint Implementation (JI): a developed country can set up a project in another developed country. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): a developed country can sponsor a greenhouse gas reduction project in a developing country. The developed country would be given credits for meeting its emission reduction targets, while the developing country would receive the capital investment and clean technology or beneficial change in land use. This system is open to abuse. Under International Emissions Trading (IET) countries can trade in the international carbon credit market. The EU might prohibit international trading after 2020. New Mechanism? The Paris Agreement is silent on markets, in that the term does not feature in the text (Kyoto did not include the term but allowed the practice). Paris considers markets broadly under Article 6, and notes “voluntary cooperation” between parties in achieving their NDCs. The future of the Kyoto carbon trading mechanisms is unclear, in particular whether the new mechanism will succeed the CDM and JI, or will sit alongside either of these. An EC report of 2016 suggests that buying and selling emissions credits for overseas projects should be limited to an approved list and only then as part of a “transition” to more effective policies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/ets/docs/clean_dev_mechanism_en.pdf Article 5: Save the Forests 1. Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases as referred to in Article 4, paragraph 1 (d), of the Convention, including forests. 2. Parties are encouraged to take action to implement and support, including through results-based payments, the existing framework as set out in related guidance and decisions already agreed under the Convention for: policy approaches and positive incentives for activities relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries; and alternative policy approaches, such as joint mitigation and adaptation approaches for the integral and sustainable management of forests, while reaffirming the importance of incentivizing, as appropriate, non-carbon benefits associated with such approaches. Article 5 The first paragraph of the article defines United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC’s) mandate in conserving and sustaining the environment (Schleussner et al., 2016). The second paragraph explores some of the previous decisions that have been made with the objective of addressing climate change. In this section, other strategies such as the role of “non-carbon benefits” (like forest conservation) are also recognized. The Accord endorses previous decisions by UNFCCC on REDD+. REDD+ stands for countries' efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and foster conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. The primary objective of this endorsement is to inspire the member countries to support REDD+. Assessment Process The Conference of the Parties (COP) and individual parties are mandated to check on the progress of the other parties and ensure that individual parties achieve the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) The COP will continuously assess the progress of the agreement to ensure that it is effective. The Paris Agreement has a “bottom up” structure in contrast to most international environmental law treaties which are “top down.” Climate goals are politically encouraged, rather than legally bound. cont.. The assessment (by the COP) is aimed at evaluating the accumulated progress in mitigating climate change (Schleussner et al., 2016). For instance, article 13 of the accord explores: “enhanced transparency framework for action and support.” This ensures that all member parties have the financial support required to achieve the goal of addressing climate change. The majority of the member parties supported the idea of an independent body evaluating the progress of each party in actions to mitigate climate change (Rajamani, 2016). On the other hand, developing countries were against this idea of using external bodies. Reactions Rhea Suh, the President of Natural Resources Defense Council, is one of the prominent personalities who reacted to the adoption of the Paris Climate Accord. In his words, Suh stated: “A great tide has turned. Finally, the world stands united against the central environmental challenge of our time, committed to cutting the carbon pollution that’s driving climate change. This agreement sets us on a course of verifiable gains we can build on over time” (Klein et al., 2017). This is a clear indication of great support of the agreement for its anticipated success in dealing with climate change and its implications. The strengths of the Paris Agreement One of the main strengths of the agreement is its diplomatic success. The Paris Climate Accord outlines a transparent and inclusive process of mitigating climate change. Formal and informal sessions are also supported. Large and small groups are involved in the achievement of the overall goal of addressing climate change (Peters et al., 2017). Secondly, the agreement acknowledges that international processes cannot deliver more. There is a special emphasis is on the individual party actions (Jayaraman & Kanitkar, 2016). Thirdly, the international community takes climate change seriously. Finally, the actions of the parties are reviewed every five years. Weaknesses The Accord has some weaknesses: It is unlikely to achieve the 2°C target. The second challenge is that there is minimal plan regarding how each party achieves the stated goals. The third weaknesses are that non-compliance is not sanctioned (Rajamani, 2016). Finally, there is no mention of the sources of greenhouse gases. There is also no consideration of structural, economic, social implications and causes of climate change. Loss & Damages: No Effective Mechanism At COP19 (November 2013) in Warsaw, Poland, the COP established the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts (Loss and Damage Mechanism), to address loss and damage associated with impacts of climate change, including extreme events and slow onset events. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable. The L&D Mechanism will: Enhance knowledge and understanding of comprehensive risk management. Strengthen dialogue, coordination, coherence and synergies. Enhance action & support, including finance, technology and capacity– building. http://unfccc.int/adaptation/workstreams/loss_and_damage/items/8132.php Conclusion The Paris Agreement has played a crucial role in tackling climate change. The focus is also on ensuring that global warming is maintained below 1.5°C. Its strengths include diplomatic success, mandatory transparency, and five year period consistent review. Challenges include unlikeliness of achieving 2°C target, minimal plans, and minimal explanation on non-compliance. In June 2017 President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw the U.S. from the agreement. Under the agreement, the earliest effective date of withdrawal is November 2020. According to the United Nations Environment Programme the emission cut targets in November 2016 will result in temperature rise by 3°C above preindustrial levels. Other scientific studies show that all major industrialized nations are failing to meet their Paris Accord goals. References Dimitrov, R. S. (2016). The Paris agreement on climate change: Behind closed doors. Global Environmental Politics, 16(3), 1-11. Du Pont, Y. R., Jeffery, M. L., Gütschow, J., Rogelj, J., Christoff, P., & Meinshausen, M. (2017). Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Nature Climate Change, 7(1), 38. Hulme, M. (2016). 1.5 C and climate research after the Paris Agreement. 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Ambition and differentiation in the 2015 Paris Agreement: Interpretative possibilities and underlying politics. International & Comparative Law Quarterly, 65(2), 493-514. Schleussner, C. F., Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Lissner, T., Licker, R., Fischer, E. M., & Hare, W. (2016). Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Nature Climate Change, 6(9), 827.
