MIDTERM EQUATIONS FINAL EQUATIONS Common stock portfolio: No promise you will get your money back. T-bill portfolio: Sure to get your money back from the government, the price of the t-bill portfolio is quite stable and predicable. Long-term bond portfolio: Most likely to get your money back at maturity. However, it will be uncertain, and not easily predicted. Which bonds have the most interest rate sensitivity/ Interest Perpetuity (growth, recent dividend): rake risk? The longer the time to maturity, the greater the interest rate risk. The lower the coupon rate, the greater the interest rate risk Dividend yield = dividend income / beginning price Capital gain yield = (ending price – beginning) / beginning price Annuity due = NPV Rule: PV (BENEFITS) – PV(COSTS) bgn Annuity = end NPV > 0, ACCEPT Calculator Setup For the Casio 9750Gii: First, make sure to check your default settings Enter the TVM module Press shift then setup For most problems, we want Payment = End Date mode = 365 Periods/yr = Annual Press EXIT when done with default settings How to solve cash flow problems with the calculator Zero coupon bond: 0 pmt Dollar return = dividend income +capital gain Percentage return = Dividend yield + capital yield STOCKS EQU. DEFINTIONS: P0 = current stock price P1 = stock price (right after paying dividend) rE = Equity cost of capital, total/required return 3. Set PMT = 0; P/Y =1; C/Y = 1 4. Enter the values of the three variables you know 5. Press the appropriate function key (F1, F2, F3, or F5) to solve for the variable you need to find Note that: - n = number of periods; use a very large number for perpetuities (e.g., 9999999999999) - PV = 0 unless you need to include the initial cost of the annuity - PMT = the amount of the equal cash flows - FV = 0 unless there is an extra payment at maturity (e.g., repayment of principal FACE VALUE; at PAR The timeline must be in 6-month periods. You need to compute If market interest rate < the coupon rate, bonds sell for the 6-month required return more than the face value; at a premium Preferred stock are stocks that takes priority over common stock in regards to dividends and in bankruptcy, often without voting rights. Stock generally does not have voting rights. Cumulative preferred stock: is all missed preferred dividends must be paid before any common dividends may be paid. Non-cumulative preferred stock: missed preferred dividends do not accumulate. Dividends payments are not considered a business expense, and therefore are not tax deductible. Efficient market hypothesis: Implies that securities will be fairly priced, based on their future cash flows, given all information that is available to inventors. Three forms of efficient market hypothesis: Weak form: past information already incorporated In stock price. Semi-strong form: all public information already incorporated. Strong form: all information already incorporated. NPV standard rule for accepting or rejecting investment will maximize shareholder value. NPV >0, ACCEPT Sensitivity analysis: Shows how the NPV varies as a single underlying assumption is changed/ Independent risk: Risks that bear no relation to each other How to solve compound interest question using the calculator If market interest rate > the coupon rate, bonds SELL for Real Bonds have Semi Annual coupons: It implies that the annual coupon payment is paid in two equal LESS than FACE VALUE; at a discount installments, every 6 months. If market interest rate = the coupon rate, bonds sell for Common stock: ownership shares in a publicly held corporation, without priority for dividends or in bankruptcy. Confers rights to any common dividends as well as rights to vote on election of directors, mergers, and other major events. Straight voting means voting for directors during which stakeholders must vote for each directory. Cumulative voting means each shareholders total vote allocation for all directors. Ticker symbol is a unique abbreviation assigned to a publicly traded company. Unit 1 hard: A firm earns $10 per share after tax and distributes 40% earnings. Corp tax is 25%, personal tax rate on dividend is 20%, and the personal tax rate on ordinary Dividend = 10 x 0.4 = $4.00 income is 30%. Dividend after taxes = How much net dividend income per share will 4 x (1.-0.2) each investor receive? = 3.20 This is for an investment of TVM problem that has only 1 input of investment instead of a steady flow of cash to continuously invest, and Note that: n is the number of periods (N in our formulas) withdraw (cash inflow or outflow). I% is the rate of return per period (r in our formulas) The procedure for solving these problems is For PV and FV, recall that a negative sign = cash 1. Enter the TVM module 2. Press F2 for the compound interest function outflow and a positive sign = cash inflow 1. Enter the TVM module 2. Press F3 for the cash flow function 3. If provided, enter the interest rate (ROI) under I% 4. Scroll down to Csh = List 1 and press F5 5. Enter the cash flow for each period, starting with today’s cash flow Enter 0 for periods with no cash flow Use a negative sign for cash outflows 6. Press the appropriate function key (F1, F2, or F4) to solve for the variable you need to find F1 = PV; F2 = ROI; F4 = F 4. Enter the values of the variables you know, pressing EXE after each one is entered 5. Press the appropriate function key (F1 to F5) to solve for the variable you are trying to calculate Question about semi-annual coupon: Divide APR by 2, Multiply n by 2m Find CPN using equation Correlation Coefficient: if p >0, positively correlated, move in the same direction. If negative, move in opposite. If 0, no relationship. TVM for Annuities 1. Press shift then setup to check your settings ⧫ Payment = End for an ordinary annuity; Payment = Bgn for an annuity due ⧫ Press EXIT when done with default settings 2. Enter the TVM module 3. Press F2 for the compound interest function ⧫ Check that P/Y = 1 and C/Y = 1 Question about annual coupon bond: PMT = annual coupon rate % x face value Bond is a security sold by governments and corporations to raise money today. The price of a bond decreases Bond indenture indicates the with increasing interest rate amounts and dates of all payments to be made. Maturity date is the date on which the loan will be paid off. Treasury bills are issued by national gov. Bondholders own the securities, have rights to the cashflows described and can trade these financial assets Relative valuation: Price -Earning ratio Trailing PE =(P0/EPS0) Forward PE =(P0/EPS1) Enterprise value multiples EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA M = number of compounding periods (c/y) F = number of payments periods each year (p/y) P/Y = MONTHLY PAYMENTS OF.. C/Y = COMPOUNDED… *if given months, do not multiply, only years Semi-monthly: yrs x 24 Semi-annually: yrs x 2 Annually: yrs x 1 Quarterly: yrs x 4 Monthly: yrs x 4 Weekly: yrs x 52 Bi-weekly: yrs x 26 Zero coupon bonds are known as pure discount bonds. YTM is the discount rate that sets PV of the promised bond payments equal to the current market price of a bond. Term is the remaining time until maturity date. As time passes, interest rate changes in the marketplace, but the coupon rate does not change Model Limitation: All three discounted cashflows are sensitive to the assumed long term growth rate and forecasted short-term growth rates. Total payout model: Accounts for share repurchases by the firm in addition to dividends paid out Discount rate = opportunity cost of capital Constant dividend (zero growth): firm will pay a constant dividend forever, like a preferred stock. Capital gain is the amount by selling price of an asset exceeds its initial purchase price. Capital gain rate is the percentage of the initial price of the asset Constant dividend growth is when the firm will increase dividend by a constant percent every period. Lecture 2: 1.If its growth by 10%, multiply everything by 1.10 2. ignore interest expense, short/long term debt 3. subtract cost of sales/expenses/depreciation by revenue to get EBIT 4. keep interest expense the same, then subtract EBIT by interest expense to get taxable income 5. multiply the tax percentage by taxable income to get taxes 6. subtract taxable income and taxes to get net income Supernormal growth is not consistent initially but settles down to constant growth eventually. Efficient markets imply that positive-NPV trading opportunities will be hard to come by, especially for most individual investors. Individual investors display many biases including overconfidence, disposition effect, limited attention Net new financing needed: 1. Additions to equity = net income x retention ratio (1-payout) 2. ending stockholder equity = beginning stockholder equity + addition to equity 3. ending total liabilities = beginning total liabilities + increase in non - debt liabilities 4. ending total liabiltiies and equity = ending total liab + ending stockholder equity 5. net new financing needed = ending asset – ending liab and equity Advantage of IRR Knowing a return is intuitively appealing. It is a simple way to communicate the value of a project to someone who doesn’t know. If the IRR is high enough, you may not need to estimate a required return Disadvantage of IRR May result in multiple answers or no answer with non-conventional cash flows. May lead to incorrect decisions in comparisons of mutually exclusive investment. Payback: The time it takes for the clash flows generated by the project to cover the initial investment in the project. Project payback > specific cut off, reject project. (3 yrs > 2 yrs). Advantages: easy to understand, adjusts for uncertainty of later cashflows, biased to liquidity. Disadvantages: ignores the time value of money, requires arbitrary cut-off, biased against long-term projects, such as research developments and new project. Volatility T-bill have the lowest average rate of return, and the lowest level of volatility. Stocks have the highest average rate of return, and the highest level of volatility Bonds are in the middle Net new financing needed: 1. Additions to equity = net income x retention ratio (1-payout) 2. ending stockholder equity = beginning stockholder equity + addition to equity 3. ending total liabilities = beginning total liabilities + increase in non - debt liabilities 4. ending total liabiltiies and equity = ending total liab + ending stockholder equity 5. net new financing needed = ending asset – ending liab and equity Capital budget: list of projects that a company plans to undertake the next period. Capital budgeting is the process of analyzing investment opportunities. Stand-alone principle allows us to analyze each project in isolation, by focusing on incremental FCF Capital cost allowance (CCA): A method used for tax purposes to allocate the original purchase cost of the asset. D X T Incremental earnings The amount by which a firm’s earnings are expected to change as a result of investment decision Market index Measure of the investment performance of the overall market. Unsystematic risk are fluctuations of a stock’s return that are due to company-or industry specific news (can be avoided by diversifying). Systematic risk are fluctuations of a stock’s return that are due to market-wide news representing common risk (cannot be eliminated). Arithmetic Average Return: The return earned in ana average year over year multiyear period. Geometric Average Return: is the average compound return earned per year over a multiyear period. Trade credit The difference between receivables and payables that is the net amount of a firm’s capital consumed as a result of those credit transactions Discounted payback: Accept only projects where the sum of the discounted cashflows within payback period are greater or equal to initial investment Beta is defined as the sensitivity of a stock’s return to the return of the market Volatility: The total risk, measured as standard deviation, of the logarithmic returns. Real Option: The right to make a particular business decision, such as capital investment. Option to delay commitment: The option to time a particular investment, which is almost always present. Abandonment Option: An option for an investor to cease (come to an end) making investments