FNCE101 - Finance Class Group: G8 Financial Analysis on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Academic Year 2021/22 Semester 2 Group Members Matriculation No. Sean Shum Yong Wei 01356384 Amelia Quek Jing Ying 01417934 Charlene Teo Xuan Ling 01410245 Chen Wei Li 01409443 Denise Wong Mei Yan 01396352 Wong Jian Han Javier 01372834 Ngo Shaun Meng Reuel 01358643 1. Company Background 2 2. Industry Background 3 3. Financial Ratios Analysis 3-4 4. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Analysis 4-5 5. Valuation Analysis 5 6. Conclusion 5 Appendix 6-18 1 1. Company Background Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), is a Taiwanese multinational semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company. It is the largest pure play contract chipmaker serving customers across industries such as computer, communications, consumer and industrial. TSMC has some 460 customers worldwide, including the likes of Apple, AMD, Qualcomm and Nvidia. These customers value TSMC’s services as it helps aggregate demand, R&D, supply chain and operations, allowing TSMC to reap the economies of scale and pass on savings to customers. 2. Industry Background Semiconductor manufacturing is inherently capital-intensive; every successive node requires exponentially more R&D and capital expenditures. Due to technical hurdles, node advancement is becoming more costly, prompting small players to give up in the race of catchup with industry leaders. In 2015, there were six companies with cutting-edge nodes when the industry introduced 16/14nm fab. Currently, only Samsung Electronics and TSMC sell 5nm chips. Fin field-effect transistor (FinFET), is used from 16/14nm onwards, and is expected to be employed on TSMC’s 2nm and Samsung’s 3nm processes. Studying the market share of semiconductor companies from 2019 to 2021 and backed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) (Appendix 1), it is clear that the industry has a few large firms with a couple of smaller firms, falling in the range of a highly concentrated industry. This phenomenon might be attributable to the high barriers of entry, where large capital and highly skilled human capital is necessary to build and maintain the foundries. Hence, new firms are unable to penetrate the market without large investments (Hayes, 2021). Macro Trends Shortage of Semiconductor Chips There is currently a semiconductor chip shortage from the sudden rise in demand of semiconductors during the pandemic. Demand for semiconductors is expected to keep increasing due to emerging technologies such as 5G, AI and Internet of Things, especially in the high performance computing (HPC) sector. Changing Competitive Landscape Many technology companies (Apple, Tesla, Google and Amazon) are developing their own application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) chips to cater to their specific products. While these may pose a threat to pure-play foundries, TSMC’s semiconductor capabilities remain at the forefront of the industry. Geopolitical Impacts Governments worldwide are increasingly engaging in industrial policy to encourage semiconductor investments and strengthen their position in the global semiconductor supply chain. Semiconductor companies, including TSMC, are expected to set up more factories in traditional manufacturing clusters located in Taiwan, South Korea, US, China, Israel, Europe, etc., alleviating short-term supply chain concerns. 2 3. Financial Ratios Analysis Current and Quick Ratio (Appendix 2.1 and Appendix 2.2 respectively) TSMC’s Current and Quick Ratio saw a steady increase from 1.4 in 2019 to 2.2 in 2021 and 1.3 in 2019 to 1.9 in 2021 respectively. This indicates increasing liquidity, which means that TSMC is able to quickly convert more of its current assets to cash. To a short-term creditor, a higher ratio is better, and both ratios being greater than 1 is desirable in the semiconductor industry. For both ratios, TSMC is on par, if not exceeds competitors. Total Debt Ratio (Appendix 2.3) TSMC’s total debt ratio is increasing year-on-year from 2019 to 2021, which means that they are financing more of their assets with debt. However, it is still considered to be in a relatively healthy range, with an optimal range for investors lying between 0.30 to 0.60. TSMC’s total debt ratio was between 10% to 20% lower than its competitors in 2019, while it surpassed UMC in 2021. Times Interest Earned (TIE) Ratio (Appendix 2.4) The TIE ratio measures the company’s ability to pay off debts using its current income. A higher TIE is preferred by investors as it indicates a lower risk of investment given relative greater financial stability. In 2021, TSMC’s TIE was 118.9, significantly higher than UMC’s and Globalfoundries', at 52.0 and 14.4 respectively. While an excessively high TIE is not necessarily desirable as this may suggest that excess income is not used for capacity expansion as they choose to repay their debts quickly, this is not the case for TSMC where Capex remains high and is expected to continue growing. Inventory Turnover Ratio (Appendix 2.5) This ratio shows how efficiently a company is managing its inventory by the number of times sold inventory is being replaced. However, it can be seen that TSMC’s inventory turnover ratio is decreasing over the years from 2019 to 2021, which means that TSMC is holding on to its inventory for a longer period. However, this is not indicative of sales performance which has consistently risen, but a possible greater need for available inventories in the event of unprecedented supply chain issues due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Total Asset Turnover Ratio (Appendix 2.7) The total assets turnover ratio measures how efficient a company’s assets are at creating revenue. For every dollar in assets, TSMC was experiencing an increase in generated sales from 2019 to 2020, with an increase in total asset turnover from 47.2% to 48.5%. However, in 2021, TSMC had generated lower sales for every dollar in assets with a decrease to 42.6%, possibly indicating less productive use of resources. This could also indicate that TSMC is purchasing larger assets as they are anticipating higher growth, which explains the lowered ratio. In comparison to its competitors, TSMC is performing relatively similarly in this aspect. 3 Gross Profit Margin (Appendix 2.8) The gross profit margin is experiencing a general increase between 46% in 2019 to 52% in 2021. This indicates that the company is retaining a greater amount from every dollar of revenue. When benchmarked against its competitors, TSMC has a far higher ratio, which highlights that solely based on gross profit margin, TSMC has better financial health. This could indicate that TSMC’s consumers are very willing to pay at a high margin or that TSMC is highly efficient. Return on Total Assets (ROA) (Appendix 2.9) TSMC’s ROA experienced a steady increase from 15.6% in 2019 to 18.4% in 2021. An increase in ROA suggests that TSMC has displayed asset efficiency, increasing profits per dollar investment. Compared to UMC, TSMC’s ROA has consistently outperformed UMC’s (0.8% in 2019 and 7.7% in 2021) year-on-year. TSMC’s ROA is expected to improve further in 2022, once economic recovery kicks in from the post COVID-19 pandemic. Price-Earnings (PE) Ratio (Appendix 2.11) PE ratio for TSMC has experienced minimal change from 24.85x in 2019 to 26.73x in 2021. Compared with UMC in the latest year of 2021, the PE ratio of UMC (52.78x in 2021) is significantly higher than TSMC’s (26.73x in 2021). DuPont Analysis of Return on Total Ordinary Equity (ROE) (Appendix 2.10 and 2.12 respectively) Using the DuPont Analysis, it can be inferred that TSMC’s ROE (20.9% in 2019 and 29.7% in 2021) outperformed UMC’s (4.0% in 2019 and 21.6% in 2021) year-on-year, suggesting that TSMC is more efficient in generating higher income. The notable distinction in ROE is attributed to the significant difference in Net Profit Margin. TSMC’s Net Profit Margin has been notably higher than that of UMC’s, while Total Asset Turnover and Equity Multiplier are somewhat similar for both companies. This suggests that TSMC is in a stronger position than UMC because of its ability to generate higher income from its sales. 4. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Analysis (Appendix 3) Referring to Appendix 3 Fig 3.1, to compute cost of equity, a risk-free rate of 2.4% was used, based on the 10 Year Treasury Rate as of 29/3/2022. While TSMC is headquartered in Taiwan, the US market was used as the benchmark given TSMC’s international operations and its key competitors being international players as well. A beta of 1.02 was employed (Yahoo Finance), suggesting that TSMC’s stock price tends to be slightly more volatile than the S&P 500. Along with an equity risk premium of 6.0%, this yields a cost of equity of 8.5% (2.4% + 6.0% * 1.02). To compute the cost of debt, the yield on debt was first calculated using publicly available information on the bond TSMC Global Ltd. 1.25% 21/26 (Appendix 3 Fig 3.2). Using a current price 4 of 91.84 as of 29 March 2022, par value of 100, duration of 3.973 years and semiannual coupon rate of 0.63% (1.26% / 2), the yield to maturity was found to be 4.34% (2 * RATE(3.973, 0.63%, -91.84, 100)). With a tax rate of 10.5% given in the 2021 Q4 earnings call, the cost of debt is thus found to be 3.9% (4.3% * (1 10.5%)). Based on the weights of 78.0% and 22.0% for equity and debt respectively, which was derived from the total values of TWD 2,170,733,205,000 for equity and TWD 613,379,783,000 for debt, the WACC is 7.5% (8.5% * 78.0% + 3.9% * 22.0%). 5. Valuation Analysis Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method (Appendix 4.1) The WACC of 7.5% was used as the discount rate in the DCF model. Based on predictions of cash flow for the next 5 years and a perpetual growth rate of 4%, the IRR of the investment was found to be 28%, with a target price of TWD 1294.49 upon exit at year-end 2026. Trading Comps Method (Appendix 4.2) To supplement the intrinsic valuation method, the trading comparables method compares companies with similar business activities, focusing on semiconductor foundries as opposed to fabless semiconductor companies, since TSMC is a contract chipmaker/pure-play foundry unlike integrated device manufacturers (eg. Intel and Samsung). Employing the EV/EBIT ratio which accounts for depreciation expense and focuses on core earnings, the median multiple of 23.2x yields a target price of USD 21.04/TWD 603.45, higher than the current price of 20.54 USD/TWD 589 (29 Mar). Dividend Growth Model (DGM) (Appendix 4.3) Given a required rate of return (cost of equity) of 8.53% from above, an assumed 4% constant growth rate in perpetuity and the value of next year’s dividend being 10.66 TWD, the stock price is TWD 235.32. However, DGM should not be used given that TSMC is a high-growth tech company and does not have a stable track record of dividend payments. Hence, the valuation should take into account capital gains of the company as opposed to merely dividend payments. This renders DGM highly limited and paints a very inaccurate picture in the context of TSMC. 6. Conclusion In conclusion, the company, industry and financial analysis are all indicative of continued strong growth of TSMC, driven by its desirable financial position as well as market factors including significant demand for high performance computing. TSMC’s most recent earnings call has also provided optimistic projections for the coming years, including long-term growth expectations of 15-20%. Taking into account these considerations, both the intrinsic and extrinsic valuation models support investment in TSMC. 5 Appendix 1 Appendix 1.1: Leading semiconductor foundries revenue share worldwide from 2019 to 2021, by quarter (Trendforce, 2021) TrendForce. (December 2, 2021). Leading semiconductor foundries revenue share worldwide from 2019 to 2021, by quarter [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved March 31, 2022, from https://www-statista-com.libproxy.smu.edu.sg/statistics/867223/worldwide-semiconductor-foundries-by-market-share/ Samsung Global Electronics Foundries TSMC In % UMC Tower Jazz SMIC VIS Powerchip Hua Hong Technology Semi Dongbu HiTek Other Q1 2019 48.10 19.10 8.40 7.20 4.50 2.10 1.50 1.70 1.50 0.90 5 Q2 2019 49.20 18 8.70 7.50 5.10 2 1.40 1.30 1.50 0.90 4.40 Q3 2019 50.50 18.50 8.30 6.70 4.40 1.70 1.30 1.30 1.30 0.80 5.20 Q4 2019 52.70 17.80 8 6.80 4.30 1.60 1.20 1.20 1.20 0.80 4.40 Q1 2020 54.10 15.90 7.70 7.40 4.50 1.60 1.40 1.30 1.10 0.80 4.20 Q2 2020 51.50 18.80 7.40 7.30 4.80 1.60 1.40 1.50 1.10 1 3.60 Q3 2020 53.90 17.40 7 7 4.50 1.50 1.30 1.40 1.10 0.90 3.90 Q4 2020 55.60 16.40 6.60 6.90 4.30 1.50 1.30 1.40 1.20 0.90 3.90 Q1 2021 54.50 17.40 5.50 7.10 4.70 1.50 1.40 1.60 2.50 0.90 3 Q2 2021 52.90 17.30 6.10 7.20 5.30 1.40 1.40 1.80 2.60 1 3 Q3 2021 53.10 17.10 6.10 7.30 5 1.40 1.50 1.90 2.80 1 3 Appendix 1.2: Leading semiconductor foundries revenue share worldwide from 2019 to 2021, by quarter (Trendforce, 2021) Appendix 1.3: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of Semiconductor Industry TSMC Samsung Electronics Global Foundries UMC SMIC Tower Jazz VIS Q1 2019 2,313.61 364.81 70.56 51.84 20.25 4.41 2.25 2.89 Q2 2019 2,420.64 324.00 75.69 56.25 26.01 4.00 1.96 Q3 2019 2,550.25 342.25 68.89 44.89 19.36 2.89 Q4 2019 2,777.29 316.84 64.00 46.24 18.49 2.56 Q1 2020 2,926.81 252.81 59.29 54.76 20.25 2.56 In % Dongbu HiTek Other Total 2.25 0.81 25.00 2,858.68 1.69 2.25 0.81 19.36 2,932.66 1.69 1.69 1.69 0.64 27.04 3,061.28 1.44 1.44 1.44 0.64 19.36 3,249.74 1.96 1.69 1.21 0.64 17.64 3,339.62 Powerchip Hua Hong Technology Semi 6 Q2 2020 2,652.25 353.44 54.76 53.29 23.04 2.56 1.96 2.25 1.21 1.00 12.96 3,158.72 Q3 2020 2,905.21 302.76 49.00 49.00 20.25 2.25 1.69 1.96 1.21 0.81 15.21 3,349.35 Q4 2020 3,091.36 268.96 43.56 47.61 18.49 2.25 1.69 1.96 1.44 0.81 15.21 3,493.34 Q1 2021 2,970.25 302.76 30.25 50.41 22.09 2.25 1.96 2.56 6.25 0.81 9.00 3,398.59 Q2 2021 2,798.41 299.29 37.21 51.84 28.09 1.96 1.96 3.24 6.76 1.00 9.00 3,238.76 Q3 2021 2,819.61 292.41 37.21 53.29 25.00 1.96 2.25 3.61 7.84 1.00 9.00 3,253.18 Appendix 2 Appendix 2.1: Current Ratio* of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 12 months Dec-31-2019 12 months Dec-31-2020 12 months Dec-31-2021 TSMC 1.4 1.8 2.2 UMC 2.1 2.1 2.2 Globalfoundries 1.5 1.6 1.7 * πΆπ’πππππ‘ π ππ‘ππ = πΆπ’πππππ‘ π΄π π ππ‘π ÷ πΆπ’πππππ‘ πΏπππππππ‘πππ Figure 2.1: Current Ratio of TSMC, UMC, and Globalfoundries Appendix 2.2: Quick Ratio* of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 12 months Dec-31-2019 12 months Dec-31-2020 12 months Dec-31-2021 TSMC 1.3 1.5 1.9 UMC 1.7 1.8 2.0 Globalfoundries 1.3 1.0 1.3 7 * ππ’πππ π ππ‘ππ = (πΆπ’πππππ‘ π΄π π ππ‘π − πΌππ£πππ‘πππ¦) ÷ πΆπ’πππππ‘ πΏπππππππ‘πππ Figure 2.2: Quick Ratio of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries Appendix 2.3: Total Debt Ratio* of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 12 months Dec-31-2019 12 months Dec-31-2020 12 months Dec-31-2021 TSMC 28.4% 33% 41.7% UMC 44.6% 37.5% 39.5% Globalfoundries 37.8% 41.2% 46.5% * πππ‘ππ π·πππ‘ π ππ‘ππ = πππ‘ππ πΏπππππππ‘πππ ÷ πππ‘ππ π΄π π ππ‘π Figure 2.3: Total Debt Ratio of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 8 Appendix 2.4: Times Interest Earned Ratio* of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 12 months Dec-31-2019 12 months Dec-31-2020 12 months Dec-31-2021 TSMC 118.9 279.9 118.9 UMC 18.3 34.1 52.0 Globalfoundries 5.4 6.5 14.4 * πππππ πΌππ‘ππππ π‘ πΈπππππ π ππ‘ππ = πΈπ΅πΌπ ÷ πΌππ‘ππππ π‘ πΈπ₯ππππ π Figure 2.4: Times Interest Earned Ratio of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries Appendix 2.5: Inventory Turnover Ratio* of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 12 months Dec-31-2019 12 months Dec-31-2020 12 months Dec-31-2021 TSMC 6.2 5.7 4.6 UMC 6.4 6.2 6.2 Globalfoundries - 8.8 5.5 * πΌππ£πππ‘πππ¦ ππ’ππππ£ππ π ππ‘ππ = πΆππΊπ ÷ π΄π£πππππ πΌππ£πππ‘πππ¦ Figure 2.5: Inventory Turnover Ratio of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 9 Appendix 2.6: Average Days Sales in Inventory* of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 12 months Dec-31-2019 12 months Dec-31-2020 12 months Dec-31-2021 TSMC 58.9 64.0 78.5 UMC 57.4 58.8 59.0 Globalfoundries - 41.8 66.8 * π΄π£πππππ π·ππ¦π πππππ ππ πΌππ£πππ‘πππ¦ = (πΈπππππ πΌππ£πππ‘πππ¦ ÷ πΆππΊπ) π₯ 365 Figure 2.6: Average Days Sales in Inventory of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries Appendix 2.7: Total Asset Turnover Ratio* of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 12 months Dec-31-2019 12 months Dec-31-2020 12 months Dec-31-2021 10 TSMC 0.472 0.485 0.426 UMC 0.400 0.500 0.500 Globalfoundries - 0.400 0.500 * πππ‘ππ π΄π π ππ‘ ππ’ππππ£ππ π ππ‘ππ = πππ‘ πππππ ÷ π΄π£πππππ πππ‘ππ π΄π π ππ‘π Figure 2.7: Total Asset Turnover Ratio of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries Appendix 2.8: Gross Profit Margin* of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 12 months Dec-31-2019 12 months Dec-31-2020 12 months Dec-31-2021 TSMC 46.0% 53.0% 52.0% UMC 14.4% 22.1% 33.8% Globalfoundries 9.2% 14.7% 15.4% * πΊπππ π ππππππ‘ ππππππ = (π ππ£πππ’π − πΆππΊπ) ÷ π ππ£πππ’π Figure 2.8: Gross Profit Margin of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 11 Appendix 2.9: Return on Total Assets* of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 12 months Dec-31-2019 12 months Dec-31-2020 12 months Dec-31-2021 TSMC 15.9% 20.6% 18.4% UMC 0.8% 3.5% 7.7% Globalfoundries - 7.6% 0.3% * π ππ‘π’ππ ππ πππ‘ππ π΄π π ππ‘π = πππ‘ πΌπππππ ÷ πππ‘ππ π΄π π ππ‘π Figure 2.9: Return on Total Assets of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries Appendix 2.10: Return on Total Equity* of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries 12 months Dec-31-2019 12 months Dec-31-2020 12 months Dec-31-2021 12 TSMC 21.3% 28.0% 27.5% UMC 4.0% 13.2% 21.6% Globalfoundries - 16.6% 3.3% * π ππ‘π’ππ ππ πππ‘ππ πΈππ’ππ‘π¦ = πππ‘ πΌπππππ ÷ πβπππβπππππ'π πΈππ’ππ‘π¦ Figure 2.10: Return on Total Equity of TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries Appendix 2.11: Price-Earnings Ratio* of TSMC and UMC 12 months Dec-31-2019 12 months Dec-31-2020 12 months Dec-31-2021 TSMC 24.85 26.54 26.73 UMC 19.05 19.94 52.78 * πππππ − πΈπππππππ π ππ‘ππ = πβπππ πππππ ÷ πΈπππππππ πππ π βπππ Figure 2.11: Price-Earnings Ratio of TSMC and UMCE 13 Appendix 2.12: DuPont Analysis 14 Appendix 3 (Refer to Excel File) Figure 3.1: Computing WACC Risk Free Rate Equity Risk Premium Beta Equity Cost 2.4% 6.0% 1.02 8.5% Value (TWD '000s) Weight 2,170,733,205 78.0% *Yield on Debt Tax Rate Debt 4.3% 10.5% 3.9% 613,379,783 22.0% Total (WACC) 7.5% 2,784,112,988 100.0% Figure 3.2: Deriving Yield on Debt *Deriving Yield on Debt TSMC Global Ltd. 1.25% 21/26 Current Price Par Value Duration (Years) Coupon Rate (Semiannual Payments) Yield to Maturity (YTM) 91.84 100 3.973 0.63% 4.34% 15 Appendix 4 (Refer to Excel File) Appendix 4.1: DCF Model 16 17 Appendix 4.2: Trading Comparables Appendix 4.3: Dividend Growth Model Assumptions Required Rate of Return (Cost of Equity) Constant Growth Rate in Perpetuity Value of Next Year Dividend 8.53% 4.00% 10.66 Stock Price 235.32 18