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ScienceNOW Apophis
Disasters: Geology vs. Hollywood
Introduction
As we discussed in class, there is still unused planetary material out in space. While we haven't found all
material (and we don’t expect to), what we have found in space are objects that, based on their orbits, will
not impact Earth. But there are a few, like Apophis, that we are watching closely because they might be a
problem for us in the future.
Learning Objectives
● Describe how scientific knowledge helps in forecasting possible impacts. (1, a, b)
● Discuss how science shapes policy aimed at preventing future impact events. (2, a, b)
Part 1: Watch the short video.
As you are watching the video, look for the answers to the following questions.
1. What is Apophis? How big is it?
- Apophis is an asteroid that could be up to 1,000 feet broad and appears to be traveling towards
Earth.
2. What is a “shooting star”?
- Small asteroid pieces are frigid rocks. In the radiance that sweeps across the sky, which is what
we see, the asteroid would break into pieces if it exploded or experienced a quick impact.
3. At the end of the Cretaceous period (66 million years ago) a large asteroid hit Earth, causing a
mass extinction. How big was the asteroid, and where did it hit?
- The Yucatan was struck by a boulder the size of Mount Everest approximately 65,000,000 years
ago, which caused the dinosaur extinction.
4. Is it possible for Apophis to impact Earth? If so, when?
- Yes, there is a chance that Apophis will strike Earth. There is a one in 2036 possibility that
Apophis will strike Earth on Friday the 13th.
5. Was this date guaranteed, or was more information necessary to accurately predict the date of
impact? What is this revised year?
- Yes, because Apophis will approach Earth that day ten times closer than the Moon, but still miss
us. Apophis will be so close to Earth that its orbit will be altered by the planet's gravity, altering
its course. Apophis changes course and passes through a narrow area known as "the keyhole,"
which may put it on a collision course with another object later on. Apophis will arrive on Earth
in 2036 after seven years. At first, they assumed that Apophis would strike Earth on April 13,
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2029. They amended it to 2036 since they could not guarantee this date.
6. What would be the effect if it were to impact a continent?
- If an Apophis did impact, it could devastate several counties like Southern California. Apophis'
impact on a continent would result in an explosion zone that was 60 to 100 miles across and
produced enough energy to power 100 nuclear bombs.
7. Why would it be worse if it impacts the ocean?
- The Pacific Ocean landing would be worse because it might trigger a powerful tsunami with
waves as high as 55 feet, which would cover the entire coast from Panama to Alaska.
8. There were two possible dates for Apophis to hit the Earth. Do you think that NASA’s revision of
the possible impact date throws future predictions into question? Or does it reflect the nature of
science, in that with more information, better predictions can be made? Explain your answer. (1
paragraph)
- This, in my opinion, simply serves to highlight the irrational nature of science and the
unpredictability of the cosmos. I believe that the two potential dates for Apophis are a wonderful
success because there is not always a clear solution when it comes to something that is beyond
our control. The only option we can come up with is to examine the data and forecast when the
impact will occur. It would provide a time range within which to think and plan more effective
answers.
9. In your opinion, what should we as a nation do to protect ourselves from the possibility of a
future impact? (1 paragraph)
- I believe it is crucial that we as a country take the scientific warning seriously if it indicates that
there is a strong likelihood that an asteroid will strike the earth and do significant harm. Prior to
the event, we should start conducting tests and experiments to determine whether we can change
the asteroid's trajectory. It is crucial that we invest time in finding and discovering potential
asteroids that could hit the earth in the future. There are tens of thousands that we have not found,
and if they are not found quickly enough, they could catch us off guard and be quite lethal.