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MONEY
It refers to any asset, token or good which is generally
acceptable I the exchange of goods and services as a
medium of exchange in the settlement of debts and
obligations.
Nature of money
Essential characteristics of the functions of money
Medium of exchange
Unit of account
Store of value
An object has these characteristics and it has kept
primarily to store value for future use or trade. It is
important however that such an object be liquid, i.e. be
easily converted into form that gives instant value (cash)
and without any cost and without any loss of capital or
interest.
No good or token is money unless it can satisfy all these
criteria e.g. while property of houses are good store of
value especially inflationary economies, they are not
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liquid and they are definitely not units of account or
medium of exchange.
Desirable features of money
Acceptability
Portability
Durability
Recognizability
Divisibility
Uniformity or homogeneity
Scarcity
Stable purchasing power
Difficult to counterfeit
Types of money
Private currency
Commodity money
Fiduciary money
Credit money
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Coinage money
Representative money
Primitive money
Commodity money
Is a form of money whose value comes from the
particular commodity out of which it is made? The
first instances of money were commodities or objects
which were useful in their intrinsic value e.g. animal.
As such it’s almost impossible to define money in
terms of its physical form or properties since these
are so diverse. Therefore any definition must be
based on its function. Any important point to note
about the commodity money is that while it have a
physical form, It doesn’t have a physical value that
can be universally accepted. Its value is localized or
socially determined to a larger extend e.g. gold.
Standard coinage
The discovery of the touch stone made it possible to have
metal based coins. A touch stone is a small tablet of
dark stone used for testing the content (quality and
quantity) of precious metals in any alloy. With this
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instrument, coins and notes could now be made and
it would be easy to determine the amount of any
precious metal in every coin. This also insures that no
one could use fodged coins as they would fail in
touch stone test.
Representative money
The system of commodity money continues to evolve this
time representative money. Representative money
refers to a form money that consists of a ticket or
certificate that can be exchanged for fixed amount of
a commodity such as gold, silver or even water. In
this monetary system, the material that constituted
money itself had very little intrinsic value but
worthless achieved significant market value through
being scarce as an artfeet. The term British Pound
originated in this system. It was a unit of money
backed by a tower pound of sterling silver hence the
currency pound sterling. For most of the 19th century
and 20th century many currencies were based on
representative money through use of Gold standard.
Fiat money
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Refers to the money that is not backed by resource of
another commodity. The money itself is given value
by the government i.e. by a decree or by enforcing
legal tender laws (forced) whereby debtors are
legally relieved of debt if they pay it of in the
government money. Throughout history government
have often switched forms of fiat money it terms of
war and crisis. In 1971, the United States switched to
fiat money indefinitely. At this point in time many of
the economically developed countries were fixed to
the US dollar and this single step meant that most of
these currencies became fiat money based e.g. Euro
Credit money
Refers to the money that is backed by a promise to pay
made by someone other than state e.g. credit card
loans and bank deposits. Most of the western world
money is credit money. Credit money tends to arise
as the byproduct of banking and borrowing money.
Private currency
This is a system where virtually anyone and everyone
could issue their own paper money. The advantage
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with this system is that the issuer goes bankrupt,
close etc the note will be worthless. On top of this
unscrupulous organization emerged who issued
these currencies but failed to guarantee the money
realisibility as they as there was no real value to back
them. As such, the issue of any private money has
been severely restricted by law. Despite the measure
to curb practice, they are still several party issued
digital currencies in circulation in the western world
that function as money. Their use however restricted
compared to government or credit money
Primitive money
These used the barter system and various commodities
ranging from animals to minerals were used to
determine the rate of exchange of various goods.
While these systems worked during their time, they
are worthless and have some disadvantages.
1. There was need of double coincidence of wants
events and raised some complications
ο‚· Time constraint this meant that the exchange of
goods was impossible e.g. if one wishes to
exchange fruit for some maize, one would only
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do this when the fruit and maize were both
available at the same time and place. That
scenario will only be possible for a very brief
period or never.
ο‚· Liquidity constraint to go round, the problem of
timing constraint a immediate commodity would
be needed that one would sell their fruit and
keep it until the maize is ripe and then exchange
it for maize. However there were still problems
in finding a commodity or item that would have
properties comparable to today’s money.
ο‚· Emergence of several key goods comparable to
today’s money: in trying to solve the timing
constraint by looking for a liquid good or token
further problem arose as people could not agree
on particular item. As such different people even
in the same location had different definitions of
the most tradable or liquid item of exchange.
2. Lack of desirable feature of money. The commodities
that were used in the barter trade system did not
posses what could be described as desirable features
of money. They didn’t have a stable value. Some
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could be counterfeited. Most were not easily divisible
or transportable and they do not fungible (similar)
Measurement of money
Money is one of the central topics studied in economics
and it forms its most logical links to findings.
The amount of money in the economy directly affects
inflation and interest rates and because of this,
money supply has a profound effect on the economy
Because of this fluctuations in money supply, can lead to
a monetary crisis and this can have very significant
economic threats especially if it leads to monetary failure
and adoption of much less efficient barter system.
An example of this is what happened in Russia in 1990s
when prices would go up many times whilst in the queue
to buy a commodity until the monetary system crushed.
Modern economy also faces problem in deciding what
exactly money is such that the economist has grouped
the money into different categories or stock composition
and have come up with different defections of these
compositions.
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The stock or supply of money is decided by the monetary
authorities.
The growth or decline in the stock of money should be
published on a monthly basis by such authorities.
The money is measured in numbers with each composed
of various forms of money.
The measures may vary from country to country.
In Zimbabwe the RBZ defines money in these categories;
I. π‘΄πŸŽ : Consists of notes and coins in circulation.
II. π‘΄πŸ : Consists of 𝑀0 + demand deposits. These are
notes and coins in circulation with the general
public. It also constitutes demand deposits with
the banking sector i.e. mainly commercial banks.
π‘€πŸ is also referred to as narrow money because it
includes other forms of money.
III. π‘΄πŸ : Consists of π‘€πŸ + savings deposits which
are 30 day and below with the banking sector
and under 30 day deposits with other banking
institutions, discount houses and merchant
banks deposits. π‘€πŸ is also referred to as retail
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money. Other banking institutions include
Building societies and Finance houses.
IV. π‘΄πŸ‘ : Comprises of 𝑀2 + over 30 day deposits
with the banking system and over 30 day time
deposits with other banking institutions. π‘€πŸ‘ is
also referred to as broad money because it
includes all forms of money.
The above definitions all exclude the following;
a. Holdings of money by the central bank, local
authorities and all nationalized Institutes and Public
Corporations.
b. Holding of notes and coins and bank deposits with
themselves (Banks) and Building societies with
banks.
NB The above measures are not permanent in definition
and compositions. They are often changed and redefined
as the authorities see it fit.
Seignoirage is the difference between nominal value or
face value if note or coin and the value or cost of
producing the note or coin.
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Seignoirage is the greatest or highest as the face or the
note increases. The higher the face value of the note, the
high the seigneur age (is the difference between the
value of money and the cost to produce and distribute it).
Seigneur age is the greatest with e-money.
THE GOLD STANDARD
It refers to a system of maintaining gold reserves by the
countries.
The gold standard exists when most countries are using
on gold coins as primary means of exchange.
Fixed exchange rate between an of gold and its currency.
When countries have an unrestricted gold flow in and out
of the country. Domestic money has to rise and fall in line
with gold stock.
The gold standard has to have the following features;
I. No restrictions in trade of gold.
II. Fixed exchange rates: each currency was
paid in terms of gold and the rates would be
maintained for long period of time as
revenues to devalue and revalue were slim.
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III. The private sector could issue, sale or buy
stocks of gold due to capital mobility, free
capital flows in adjustments of interest
rates.
The rules of the game
This is an important term associated with gold standards
These were a set of rules of conducts which participating
members were supposed to follow.
In the case of classical gold standard, the participating
countries were required to observe the following rules;
οƒ˜ Gold parity: each country should declare a fixed
value ratio between gold and domestic currency and
form those gold parties. Countries could determine
exchange rate.
οƒ˜ Convertibility to gold: All proper money issued must
be exchanged freely to gold at debated old party if
the bearer brings it to the bank. During those days
the currency was converted to gold but nowadays it
means convertibility to international currency.
οƒ˜ Interest rate policy: If a country began to love gold.
It was expected to raise short term interest rates to
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attract back the gold by so doing the monetary policy
could assist the international adjustment. On the
other hand if it gaining gold short term interest rates
must be lowered to repel gold inflow.
οƒ˜ Free international gold trade: There should be no
restrictions on the exportation or importation of gold
as a commodity as well as a payment method. This
generated the mobility in demand supply conditions.
Advantages of maintaining a gold standard
1. Current monetary system increases inefficiency and
wasteful expenditure by government because they
know that they can print money whenever they want
to in order reduce their fiscal deficit which is not
possible under gold standard.
2. This system puts brakes on government abilities to
print unlimited amount of money we all have seen
how from the past few years central banks work.
Disadvantages of maintaining a gold standard
1. The system ties the hands of the central bank and
government to tackle any economic catastrophe and
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therefore whenever such things happen it can lead to
of the whole exchange system.
2. Sometimes money supply is needed to push
economic activities as money can be force multiplier
for economic growth which is not possible under this
system.
3. Since gold is not divided equally it can lead to
imbalances as countries having it as a neutral
resource can exploit countries that have less gold.
The demand for money
The demand for money is the amount of money the
public wishes to hold as notes and coins and as bank
deposits. It tells us how many the public wishes to hold
which is not necessarily the amount that succeed in
holding. In contrast the realized holding of money is the
amount the public actually ends up holding. Within the
demand for money balances is less than the supply on
attempt is made to spend excess on the purchase of the
current output. In other words the aggregate desired
expenditure curve shifts upwards.
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I
n
Y
c
o
AE1
m
e
AE0
Because Y is fixed at, the upward shift in the A2 curve
creates excess demand if output and the price level rise.
The price level keeps on rising until all excess money
balances are wiped away. Within the demand for money
balances is greater than the available demand, the public
will attempt to add its balances by reducing its purchase
of current output. The AE2 curve shifts downwards when
the price level goes down.
Opportunity costs of holding money balances
Liquidity Preference Theory
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The opportunity cost of holding money balances is the
interest foregone that is the return that could have been
earned if the money had been used to purchase an
income earning asset (invested). The reason for not
holding money in the form of assets but in its pure form
has been stated by Keynes as liquidity preference which is
made up of 3 elements i.e.
I. The transaction motive
II. The precautionary motive
III. The speculative motive
The transaction motive
Money held to meet day to day expenditures; the
demand for money arises because it is not possible to
obtain a perfect synchronization between the receipt of
income and spending that income frequently of income
payments and spending habits of the community. The
longer a person’s income, the more we will hold for
transaction purposes.
Precautionary motive
In addition to the money held day to day expenses,
household for firms extend to hold additional sums as
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means of insurance against unforeseen categories. The
balances are held to deal with sudden misfortune, to take
advantage of unexpected bargains or in case of expenses
prove to be higher than budgeted for. This demand upon
the state of people expectations i.e. if they are
pessimistic. The Precautionary balances are also known
as active balances as they are hold for the purpose of
spending on goods and services
Speculative motive
Holdings of money over and above what is required to
meet the transaction and precautionary demand.
Households and firms hold such balances when they fear
if the capital losses on other assets. It is that money
which is held in hope of making a speculative gain to
avoid possible loss as a result of the change in interest
rates and their price of financial assets e.g. if interests are
low people would speculate by holding cash anticipating
that interest rates would rise and hence the price of
financial assets will fall.
The price for bonds and the interest rates are inversely
proportional to each other. Consider a fixed income bond
which yields an income of $5 per year. If the net rate of
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interest is 10% the price of the bond will be $50. This is
because the rate of interest on the bond must be equal to
what savers could earn by investing their money
elsewhere. If the market rate of interests were to fall by
2.5% the price of the bond would rise to $200.
What determines the demand for money
I. The rate of change of price
If everyone believes prices are going to rise they have
an incentive to reduce money balances and
purchases commodities or assets whose money value
might be expected to rise in line with the price level.
II. The level of real income
The higher the level of income, the greater the
amount of money demanded for transactions and
precautionary purposes.
III. The absolute level of prices
This influences demand for money because it
determines how much money is needed to carry
transactions.
IV. The rate of interest
It is the price which has to be paid to persuade
people to forego the advantages of holding money.
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The higher the interest, the lower the demand for
money and the vice versa.
The value of money
Money has no intrinsic value, that derives a value and it is
acceptable in exchange for goods and services. The value
of money is therefore determined by the price of goods
and services purchased by money. Conversely i.e. all
prices in the economy falls, the value of money will rise
and if the value of money decreases, its purchase power
falls.
The quantity theory of money
This was an attempt to explain the causes of changes in
the value of money. It is based on the equation of
exchange:
MVy = PY where;
M = total money stock or quantity of money
Vy = Income velocity of circulation the number of times
each unit of currency is used to purchase
final output
in any given period of time
P = is the average price of final output
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Y = Total volume of real output produced in given period
of time.
Since P is the average price of the final product or output
and Y is the total volume of total output, PY is simply
another way of expressing the Gross National Product
(GNP).
The equation of exchange tell us that the quantity of
money multiplied by its velocity of circulation must be
identical to the money value of National Income e.g.
given that the money National Income is $2million
calculate the velocity of equation
The classic theory of money
Only recognizes the transaction demand to hold money
balances and assuming this demand function as well as
the level of national income to be given. It predicts that
any given change in the quantity of money will cause an
equal percentage change on the price level.
οƒ˜ That is any change in M will cause a change in P and
there cannot be a change in P independent of a
change in M.
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οƒ˜ The quantity theory of money states that “the
amount of money in the system X the velocity
circulation must be identical to the number of
transactions and their price”.
οƒ˜ The velocity of circulation is the measure of speed at
which money circulate in the economy and is
determined by the following;
1. Length of time for which money is held – The
greater the value of money stock held as assets
(wealth form) the lower the overall velocity of
circulation.
2. The rate at which money is passed from one
person to another. This is in turn primarily
determined by payment practices e.g. weekly
payments and monthly payments of wages.
Ways of controlling the demand for money
1. Interest rate
Setting of a higher fixed rate may reduce demand for
bank loan.
2. Control of inflation
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The higher the inflation rate, the higher the demand
for money and individuals need to offset the
reduction in the purchasing power caused by
inflation.
3. Technological innovations in the financial markets
E.g. E-banking has resulted in demand for money.
4. Investing depositor confidence in the market
More money is banked.
Theories of banking
The currency school of banking
This school of thought viewed the proper role of bank as
the store of the community gold and silver money.
Community banks were expected to be only depositors of
the public money, holding deposits for their customers
and making payments but creating additional money.
The currency school of banking required no monetary
policy at all and advocate that a nation’s money supply
would depend at all times on its supply of gold and silver.
The banking school
They regarded banks having a proper role of creating
additional money. Banks would create in the form of new
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loans equal to the community’ s giving ability to produce
real goods and services to ensure that the quantity of
spending power would be enough for stable noninflationary growth and full employment.
To accomplish the desired rate of growth of credit money
banks were expected to follow a principle called real bills
doctrine where loans would be made only for real
productive purposes.
Normally loans would be short term commercial industry
or agricultural loans. Short term commercial and
industrial loans were supposed to be self-liquidating and
self-regulating.
Self-liquidating means the borrowed money would be
used to earn funds to pay off or liquidate the loan. There
was no danger of the inability to pay (self-liquidating).
Self-regulating means the quantity of money would be
precisely equal to the value of new production.
Loans could not be made for speculative purposes as
these would cause excess spending and stimulate
inflation. There was no lending for real estate or for long
term capital investments.
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Weaknesses of the theory
ο‚· In a more complex economy with money stages of
processing in short term commercial loans might not
be self-liquidating.
ο‚· The optimism and pessimism of banks also affect
whether loans are self-regulating.
ο‚· The doctrine considered consumer loans as
unproductive. To liquidate one commercial or
industrial loan may require a series of a new
consumer loan.
ο‚· Whatever the process policy makes have devised for
restricting the amounts of credit, some lenders and
borrowers have found ways to get around it e.g. new
type of instruments making loans on top of loans etc.
The monetarist school of thought
Monetarist theory says that the government proper
economic role is to control the rate of inflation by
controlling the amount of money in circulation. It is the
view within monetary economics that variations in the
money supply has major influences on national output in
the short term run and the price level over the longer
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periods and that objections of monetary policy are best
by targeting the growth rate of money supply. The
founding father of monetarism is the economists Milton
Friedman.
Organization and structures of commercial banks
The organization and structure of commercial banks
differ from country to country. The two principle banking
systems are the unit banking and branch banking
Unit banking
οƒ˜ Are independent, one office banks.
οƒ˜ Their operations are confined in general to a one
single office.
οƒ˜ The usually operate in small towns and cities and
country banks and city banks respectively.
Advantages
οƒ˜ Efficient working i.e. they provide prompt services to
its customers.
οƒ˜ Personal relations- since it organizes and other staffs
are generally local people, they have personal
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relations which help in mobilizing large resources for
the bank.
οƒ˜ Local utilization of deposits i.e. local deposits are
utilized by a unit or local bank on the development of
the same locality and they are not transferred to
other towns as is done under branch banking.
Disadvantages
οƒ˜ Failure to spread risks i.e. failure of one big party to
repay the loan in time may bring disaster to the
bank.
οƒ˜ Limited resources.
οƒ˜ No economies of large operations.
οƒ˜ No diversified services.
Branch Banking
The most prevalent banking system in the majority of the
countries. Under this system a big bank has a number of
branches in different parts of the country even many
branches will be in a cosmopolitan city like Harare or
Bulawayo
Advantages
οƒ˜ Spreading of risks.
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οƒ˜ Diversified services.
οƒ˜ Large investment (due to large deposit base).
οƒ˜ Economies of scale.
οƒ˜ Customers can access in any one of the branches.
Disadvantages
οƒ˜ Supervision problem i.e. it is difficult to manage
supervise them efficiently and s a result clients suffer.
οƒ˜ Transfer of funds i.e. may be used for financing
business and industry in other areas.
οƒ˜ They may not meet local needs (because they have
to operate under the rules set by the head office).
οƒ˜ Bureaucracy- management of all branches and
decision making is under control of the head office.
οƒ˜ No or weak banker or client relationship as that in a
unit banking system.
Group banking
Is a type of multiple office banking consisting of 2 or
more banks under the control of a holding company
which itself may or may not be a bank.
The holding company is called the parent company and
the banks are called operating companies.
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οƒ˜ The parent company controls and manages.
οƒ˜ This system is most prevalent in the US banking
system.
Advantages
οƒ˜ Pooling of resources.
οƒ˜ Don’t need large cash reserves because they can
simply transfer funds to each other when need
arises.
οƒ˜ Economies of large operations.
οƒ˜ Increase in efficiency i.e. when the parent company
provides such specialized services as research, advice
on investments and legal matters to all bank in the
group.
Disadvantages
οƒ˜ Monopoly banking- is not healthy from an
economic point of view.
οƒ˜ Chain reaction – if business of one member
declines it may adversely affect the business of
other members of the group.
Chain Banking
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A banking system where the same or individual or group
individuals control two or more banks as against control
by a holding company under group banking. It’s done by
stock ownership in two or more banks. Shareholders
directly or through their nominees exercise control of
competing banks.
Money Supply
It is defined as currency with the public and demand
deposits in commercial banks i.e. M=C+D. Professor
Friedman defines money supply at any moment in time as
“the number of money people are carrying around in
their pockets, number of money they have to their credit
at banks or money they have to their credit at banks in
the form of document deposits”.
Structure of money supply in Zimbabwe
Currently the Zimbabwean economy is experiencing low
liquidity level in the money market. There are a limited
number of surplus unit to lend to the deficit unit.
Lending from Excess Reserves
Excess reserves are any legal (total) reserves over and
above those required by regulators. These are reserves
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(vault cash and bank deposits) that banks have over and
above what they are required by the government to keep
to the backup deposits. Excess reserves can also e termed
free reserves and their primary use is for making loans to
consumers and businesses. This makes them exceeding
important to the banking industry. Because these
reserves do not generate interest, revenue or profit,
banks are inclined to keep as few reserves as possible.
Excess reserves make it possible for banks to function as
financial intermediaries because banks act as conduit
deposits and loans. They bring deposits to the bank, keep
a few reserve lend out the rest. Therefore the excess
reserves are the key to this lending.
Determinants of changes in money supply
Money supply refers to the amount of money that is in
the circulation and the amount of is deposited with the
banking sector.
𝑴𝒔 =C+D
Simple model of money determination
In this model, money supply is either high power charged
(H) or Dx deposits with the financial sector. The
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parameters which affect the level of money supply
including the Cash Reserve Ratio required by the nonbanking private sector and total reserves with the
banking sector.
𝑀 𝑠 = F(c,r) where;
r is the ratio of reserve s to total deposits
c is the ratio of total cash held by the non-banking
private sector in relation to total deposits.
C=
π‘π‘Žπ‘ β„Ž
π‘‘π‘’π‘π‘œπ‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘ 
𝑐
= where;
𝑑
C is the total cash held by the non-banking private
sector.
D is total deposits.
NB CD=C
Therefore 𝑀 𝑠 = C+D
= CD+C
= D(C+1) (i)
𝑅
r = where R= total reserves
𝐷
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r +c =
𝑅
𝐷
+
𝐢
𝐷
1
= (R + C)
𝐷
D =
𝑅+𝐢
(ii)
π‘Ÿ+𝑐
From equation (i) 𝑀 𝑠 = DC(C+1)
=
𝑀𝑠 = |
(𝑅+𝐢 )(𝐢+1)
π‘Ÿ+𝑐
𝐢+1
π‘Ÿ+𝑐
|(H) (iii)
Where H is money held by the whole economy, money
supply is therefore a function of total amount of high
powered money in the economy.
The required reserve ratio (r) and the desired liquidity
ratio (c) by the non-banking private sector.
Money supply is dependent on H and the level of the
money multiplier.
When small r rises, money supply decreases (𝑀 𝑠 ).
When c rises 𝑀 𝑠 also falls.
(H) Is the base for expansion of bank deposits and
creation of money.
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The supply of money (𝑀 𝑠 ) varies directly with the change
in the monetary base.
Reserve Ratio
A higher (r) results in smaller bank multiplier and reduces
money supply. When r is determined by the bank, its size
will to a large extend depend on the marginal cost of
money to the banks.
The desired cash ratio
An increase in c results in an increase in leakage of cash
reserves from the banking sector to the non-banking
private sector. This reduces cash reserve upon which
banking sector can create and 𝑀 𝑠 is therefore restricted.
The level of high money (H)
An increase in H increases the level of 𝑀 𝑠 even if the
money multiplier remains unchanged.
H = f (money growth rate, B.O.P, inflation)
Criticism of money supply model
1. Its too mechanistic: assumes that small c and r are
constant in the real world situation these change
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with the changes in behaviour of banks and
individual perceptions.
2. It’s assumed to be exogenously determined by the
government or bank. This is unrealistic in the sense
that the level of (H) can be driven affected by the
public sector borrowing requirement on the position
of the balance of payment.
Public sector borrowing requirement refers to that
part of government expenditure not financed by either
tax revenue or sale of government debt to the nonbanking private sector.
A higher public sector borrowing requirement either
increases 𝑀 𝑠 and cause inflation or rises interest rates
and crowds out of investment
Determinants of the reserve ratio
Bank size
The larger the size of the bank, the larger the
amount of reserves it has to keep to the backup its
deposits.
Safety reasons
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To ascertain greater safety, a bank has to keep more
reserves to backup its deposits.
Interest foregone by holding reserves
The higher the interest rate, the lower the amount of
money kept in reserves and the vice versa.
Uncertainty of deposit flow
The higher the uncertainty, the higher the amount kept in
reserve
Credit creation of commercial banks
It is the actual money creation by the monetary authority.
It is created by commercial banks through loans. Coins
and notes in circulation are called (H) money or the
monetary base because it can create more money.
How banks create money
They create credit money through loaning after receiving
some deposits from surplus reserve. For example, deposit
creation in a single bank system with a 10% cash ration.
Initial
Deposits
liabilities
10000
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or Loans or Asset or cash
advances retained
9000
1000
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deposits
1𝑠𝑑 Re- 9000
deposits
2𝑛𝑑 Re- 8100
deposits
3π‘Ÿπ‘‘ Re- 7290
deposits
4π‘‘β„Ž Redeposits
5π‘‘β„Ž Redeposits
100000(liabilities)
8100
900
7290
810
6561
729
90000
10000(deposits
will be equal to
initial deposit)
The bank multiplier
The limit to credit creation is the cash ratio which
is 10%. The maximum amount of credit possible is
𝟏
given by the formula D = × c where,
𝒓
D = the amount bank deposits
r = the cash ratio
C = cash held by banks
D=
𝟏
𝟏𝟎
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× πŸπŸŽπŸŽ 𝟎𝟎𝟎 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎0
Page 36
1
The value of is known as the bank or cash creation
π‘Ÿ
multiplier.
It shows the relationship between cash, reserve, asset
and the total amount of liabilities.
The effect of any additional deposits of cash into the
system upon the level of the deposits can be given by the
𝟏
formula D = ×𝜟c Where 𝜟D is the effect upon total
𝒓
deposits as a result of a π›₯ 𝑖𝑛 π‘π‘Žπ‘ β„Ž π‘‘π‘’π‘π‘œπ‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘  𝑖. 𝑒. π›₯𝑐.
To what extend do banks create money?
I. As long as they are borrowers willingly to borrow
because they cannot be creation without loaning
out.
II. As long as there are cash deposits banks cannot
create money.
III. The extend to which the economy is monetarized.
This is the degree to which the economy uses
money as medium of exchange, the extend to
which it uses banks, financial institutes rather
than in hidden economy.
IV. The level of cash reserves required by law to be
kept in precautionary measures through
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withdrawals. The smaller the cash ratio, the
greater the ability to create money and the vice
versa.
V. The level of special reserves required by the
central bank.
Limitations to credit creation
While it is time that banks will always create credit as
long as they receive deposits from customers, there
are limitations to credit creation.
1. Prudence consideration: Banks may deliberately
reduce the amount of loans they will give to
customers as a result of risk consideration.
2. Cash leakages: They may occur in 2 ways, the bank
customers may receive a payment of $9000 as in
the previous example and may not necessarily
deposit the whole amount into the bank especially
where he receives the payment in cash. Secondly
the customer can change his money into other
convertible currency and take it outside the
country.
3. Demand for loans and interest rates: A low
demands for loans by both cooperate and
customers will lead to low deposits and this will
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mean that there will be less credit created. Factors
that lead to a low demand for loans include
recession and high interests rates because these
two lead to low economic activity.
4. Government intervention and regulation: May be
done through the reserve ratio or through
manipulating interests rates or by direct
instruction to the banks for them to stop making
advances for a given period. Normally the later
happens when the authorities fear that credit
creation is exceedingly the desired level.
Profitability Vs Safety in Credit Creation
In creating credit and therefore making profits banks
have something to worry about i.e. the safety of loans
they give and like all commercial enterprises, banks
need to make profits so that they can pay shareholders
and as such their aim is that of profit maximization
among others. Maximizing profits requires that and in
theory that banks should on-lend all the deposits they
receive because the highest possible interest rate and
they may mean lending to the riskiest borrowers for
the largest time period.
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However in practice banks cant blindly seek to
maximize profits without regard to the safety of the
customer deposit and the shareholder’s equity.
Therefore a fine balance should be reached which will
both maximize profits and safety for the deposits.
Banks normally resolve this dilemma by maintaining
prudent, liquidity cushions in the form of each in their
safe (within the limit and policies of the central bank,
operational or reserve requirements with the central
bank, investments in money markets on a call or short
notice basis, holding first class commercial bills,
government short dared bills and CDs issued by other
banks. After putting in place the fine balance in the
form of a liquidity cushion portfolio, the bank can then
lend as this is its major activity and source of revenue.
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Central Banking
Monetary Control
The central bank has the main responsibility to control
the supply of money in the economy through a
monetary policy. Monetary policy refers to a set of
resources enacted by the central bank to control the
cost if credit and therefore of money in circulation i.e.
𝑀 𝑠 . In coming up with its monetary policy, the central
bank aim is to influence rate of growth on 𝑀 𝑠 (𝑀3 )r
which is its intermediate target in order to achieve the
ultimate target of low and stable prices.
A stable level of the prices helps to achieve full
employment, economic growth and better living
standards.
The RBZ ultimate target is consistent with its mission
to maintain the internal and external value of the
country’s currency.
Instruments used in monetary control
To implement monetary policy the RBZ uses several
instruments which include the following;
οƒ˜ OMO
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οƒ˜ RRR
οƒ˜ Moral Suasion
οƒ˜ Rediscount rate
οƒ˜ Interest rate
οƒ˜ Funding
οƒ˜ Special deposits or Special reserves
οƒ˜ Direct controls on lending
Reserve Requirement Ratio
These are tools of monetary policy which are
computed as a percentage of deposits that banks must
hold as vault cash or on deposits at the central bank
rather than lend out to the public. They represent a
cost to the bank in that while the banks are required to
pay interest to the depositors, the banks are not
getting a market return on the same.
As a tool of monetary policy, they are one way of
influencing the country’s financial behavior,
borrowing interests rates by affecting the potential of
banking system to create transaction deposits
(current account and other account that can be used
directly as cash without withdrawal limits or
restrictions.
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They are the only bank deposits that require the bank
to keep reserves at the central bank. In the real world
the connection the reserve requirement and money or
credit creation is not too simplified as in the previous
example. This is because reserve requirement only
apply to transaction deposits which are composed of
𝑀1 or narrow money.
Deposits
which
are
components
of
𝑀2 π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ 𝑀3 (𝑏𝑒𝑑 π‘›π‘œπ‘‘ 𝑀1 ) such as savings accounts and
time deposits are not subject to reserve requirement
and therefore they can expand without regard to
reserve levels.
Furthermore Central banks may allow to acquire the
reserves they need to meet their requirements from
the money market or interbank market as long as the
banks are willing to pay the prevailing price
Open Market Operation
They are a means by which the central bank control
the liquidity of the national currency by buying and
selling government securities. They are the foundation
of a monetary policy. The process involves the use of
national currency to buy in the open market some
Increase 𝑀 𝑠
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The RBZ buys
financial assets from
the market
The RBZ gives out
money have increases
Page 43
money supply
financial assets typically gold, foreign currency or
government bonds. Alternatively, it may involve the
selling in the open Market a financial asset in order to
redeem back national currency. These operations
directly affect the liquidity and the value of the
national currency by increasing or decreasing the
supply of cash in circulation.
Reduce 𝑀 𝑠
Te RBZ will sell
financial assets to
the market
The market buys the
financial assets through
cheques e.t.c. thus
reduces money
circulation
Moral Suasion
Consists of recommendations and positive advisory
services to commercial banks to behave in a certain way.
However, the tool is not binding but depend on the bank
credibility in the eyes of the bankers.
Funding
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Involve the conversion of the maturity structure of
government debt for example, to reduce liquidity in the
economy, short term government debt may be converted
into long term government debt and vice versa. However,
this policy tool is not widely used in Zimbabwe.
The Rediscount Rate or Discount Rate
Is set by the central bank in line with its monetary policy
objectives and it’s on indicator of the banks view of
inflation as well as the base rate for most short term
interest rates. The Central bank extends short term loans
secure by government bond to financial institutions and
the discount rate changed on such loans is an important
factor in the control of money supply. In order to increase
the 𝑀 𝑠 the central bank reduces the discount rate to
enable bank to borrow more at cheaper costs and the
opposite is true. When the Central Bank lends to the
financial institutions, the funds so loaned represents on
expansion in the 𝑀 𝑠 or monetary base.
Special Deposits
A call for special deposits is the most direct means
available to the Central Bank for reducing the liquidity
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position of banks and licensed deposit takers and is
therefore the most direct means of controlling their
lending. As the stock of liquid assets falls, banks are
forced to cut their lending. Special deposits can be
released when the bank wishes to see the expansion
of𝑀 𝑠 .
NB The difference between the reserve requirement and
the special deposit is that the reserve requirement is
given as a percentage of the actual deposits made into
the bank by individuals e.g. 5% of whereas special
deposits is an absolute figure e.eg. $20000
Reserve requirement does not earn interest whereas
special deposits can earn interest when held by central
bank
Interest rate policy
A rise in interest rate charged by commercial banks will
lead to a reduced demand for bank credit and the vice
versa
STOCK EXCHANGE
It is a platform or an arena on which listed securities are
sold and bought.
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Functions of stock exchange
a. Established for the purpose of assisting,
regulating and controlling the business of
buying, selling and dealing in securities.
b. Provide a market for the trading of securities to
individuals and organizations seeking to invest
their savings of excess funds through the
purchase of securities.
c. Provision of liquidity to investors.
d. Offers possibility of diversifying portfolio
e. Mobilize and efficiently allocate resources for
country’s economic development.
f. Establishes rules for fair trading practices and
regulates the trading activities of its members
according to those rules.
g. It offers a fair, efficient, transparent and secure
price discovery mechanism in a well regulated
environment.
Benefits of listing on the stock exchange
1) Visibility- It offers the company free publicity
2) Enhances investor confidence.
3) Increased demand for products and services.
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4) Overall increase in profitability.
5) Market support is enhanced.
Desirable characteristics of stock exchange
1) Liquidity- someone should be able to sell an asset
quickly at a fair price and low transaction cost.
2) Information should be readily available to every
investor and it has to be cheap enough to acquire
and should be available at same time.
3) Narrow price spread and difference between the bid
and ask prices should be reasonable’
4) Small price fluctuations.
5) Prices should react to new information quickly.
6) Investors must perceive the market to be inefficient
and so believe they can outperform market
expectations.
Functions of the central bank RBZ
RESEARCH ON LIMITATIONS OF THE MONETARY POLICY
TOOLS
1. Issue of notes and coins
2. Formulates and implements monetary policy:
monetary policy contains a set of policies designed to
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influence the supply of demand for and the price of
money.
3. The banker to the government: The central bank
keeps the central government accounts and it also
acts as an advisor to the government.
4. Supervises the banking system: the bank has the
responsibility under the RBZ Act and Banking Act for
the supervision of the banking system. It must try to
ensure that individual banks retain sufficient liquidity
and do not undertake projects which are risky.
5. The lender of last resort: The bank will provide funds
for banks that are short of cash.
6. The bankers’ bank: Every commercial bank maintains
an account with the central bank.
7. Management of the exchange of equalization
account: This account represents the deposits of the
nation’s gold and foreign currency reserves. It is used
to stabilize the exchange value of the dollar
(exchange rate) against other currency.
8. Manager of the country’s national debt: The central
bank administers the repayment of government debt
when these debts reach their maturity.
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Bank regulation and supervision
This subjects financial system to certain requirements
restrictions and guidelines aimed at maintaining
integrity of the financial system handled by either
government or any independent agent. In other
countries regulation does not only focuses safety and
soundless of the sector but also looks into privacy,
disclosure requirements, fraud prevention, anti money
laundering as well as prompting lending to the lower
income segment or key economic sectors.
Aims of regulation
ο‚· To minimize financial loss of depositors
ο‚· To enforce applicable laws (the banking Act and
the RBZ Act)
ο‚· To prosecute cases of market misconduct such as
insider trading or money laundering.
ο‚· To protect clients and provide a vehicle for the
investigation of customer complaints.
ο‚· To license providers of financial services.
Bank Supervision
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It entails the upholding of bank rulers as set cut in the
regulatory framework and conformity of procedures.
This is done through on site of offsite inspection as well
as analysis of bank performance through submitted
reports. Bank supervision aims at the following
ο‚· To ensure that capital allocation is more and
sensitive.
ο‚· Separating operational risk from credit risk and
quantifying both.
ο‚· Attempting to align economic and regulatory capital
more closely to reduce the scope for regulatory
arbitrage.
NB Arbitrage is an art of profit making by taking
advantage of different prices of the same item affected in
different markets e.g. US$1 : 15ZAR in market A and
US$1 : 10ZAR in market B.
Therefore one can go and purchase US$1 in market B and
sell them in market A and gain profit of 1ZAR whereas
speculation is anticipating a change in prices of items and
try taking the grasp of such advantage.
ο‚· To eliminate fraud in the banking sector.
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ο‚· To build confidence in the commercial banking.
Capital reserve requirement
Sets the minimum capital reserve each bank must hold in
position of their customer deposits for notes holding. The
purpose of this is to put a limit on how much the supply
of deposits can grow and also work as a cushion in case
of a severe recession that leads to bankruptcy. It sets
framework on how banks and depository institutions
must handle their capital in relation to their assets. The
international bank of settlements (the Basel Committee)
Influences each country’s capital requirement
internationally. In 1988 the Committee decided to
introduce the capital measurement system referred to as
the Basel Capital Accord and the latest one being Basel II.
NB Recess : negative growth or sustained negative
growth I the economy.
Controls imposed by the Banking Act
ο‚· To ensure that the banks do not conduct their
business to the determinant of their clients.
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ο‚· Each commercial bank is required to maintain a
certain level of liquidity to meet customer demands
and other related issues.
ο‚· Each commercial bank shall publish its name
including its class of business on the entrance of its
business premises and in all communication memos.
ο‚· Each bank is required to maintain a main
administration office in Zimbabwe even if it is an
international bank.
ο‚· Banking Act: The bank shall not alter its
Memorandum or Articles of Association without the
consent of the registry of Banks.
ο‚· Every bank is required to publish its annual and semiannual accounts in a manner which is clear both to
customers and regulators. These accounts are
published in a government gazette.
ο‚· Obliged to maintain a minimum capital requirement
set out by the regulatory authorities.
Financial Markets
Is where individuals, firms and other organizations
raise money by issuing securities or certificates in
pieces of paper in return for the money. Its role is to
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facilitate the transfer of funds from surplus units to
deficit units. Securities are financial instruments
issued by investors (surplus units) by firms,
government and other institutions (deficit units). The
security will specify the nature of the investment, the
benefits that the investor will enjoy in return for
investing his money. These securities are represented
by documents that act as evidence that the holder of
the document has a financial stake in the
organization that issued the certificate. After being
issued some of the securities can be transferred or
negotiated from one person or organization to
another except where there are restrictions to such
transferability.
Primary and Secondary Markets
Financial markets can be divided into 2 parts i.e.
primary and secondary markets.
The primary market is where the initial issue of
securities occurs. The transaction is therefore
between the initial investors and the initial borrower
although intermediaries can be used. In other words
the money that is exchanged for securities goes
direct to the borrower. Primary market is not
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necessarily an organized market or a physical place
but whenever a deficit unit raise funds from the
public and issues on security as opposed to
transferring the one that was initially issued
sometime ago, the transaction is said to happen in
the primary market.
A Secondary market is a market where securities
already in existence are traded i.e. bought and sold
by investors as long as they are transferable. It
should be noted that the purchase and sale of
securities is between investors and as such the funds
generated by the transaction in this market do not
flow to the issuer of the security but flow between
the traders or investors in the secondary sense
(secondary market).
Money and Capital Markets in Zimbabwe
The markets are part of a broader market called the
financial market which is not only made up of money
and capital market but also the foreign exchange
market and the derivatives markets.
Money Markets
Refers to the markets which financial intermediaries
and other participants trade in various financial
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instruments, enter into contracts such as repurchase
agreements. The market normally trade in securities
which maturity is up to 1 year and as such the money
market provides short term financial securities.
Functions of money markets (3 basic functions)
ο‚· To provide short term capital to the
government,
corporate
world,
financial
institutions, organizations and individuals
requiring short term finance.
ο‚· To act as barometer of liquidity in the economy.
Many of the strategies to increase or curb
liquidity by the Central Bank are done through
the market.
ο‚· To provide a market for short term investors to
invest funds in securities that have short
maturities, highly liquid and low risk.
ο‚· The money market is the main determinant of
interest rates in the economy.
ο‚· The demand and surplus of funds in the money
market will determine the interest rates levels.
Instruments used in the Money Market
Certificate of Deposit
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ο‚· It is a time deposit is a specific maturity date shown
on a certificate.
ο‚· If the certificate can be maturity it’s called a NCD.
ο‚· Large denomination CDS are the ones usually
negotiable.
ο‚· A certificate of Deposit is an interest bearing
instrument i.e. interest is added to the principal
amount.
Commercial Paper
ο‚· It is an insecure promissory note or debt instrument
with fixed maturity.
ο‚· It is usually sold at discount from face value i.e. the
purchase or surplus unit pays an amount less than
the face value written on the “paper” but receives
the face value on maturity.
Treasury bills
ο‚· Are issued by the government through Central of
Bank and the government debt financing
instruments.
ο‚· They are very liquid but usually earn a low return
because of low risk.
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ο‚· They are sold at discount of the face or nominal per
value of maturities ranging from 30 day, 91 days to
182 days.
ο‚· They are sold periodically and because they are
issued by the government, many participants in the
money market consider them to be risk free.
ο‚· They can be traded in the secondary markets on an
annualized percentage yield to maturity.
Bankers Acceptance “Bas”
ο‚· Is a draft bill or Bill of Exchange drawn on and
accepted by the bank.
It’s an instrument of high quality and can be
negotiated in ease in a developed secondary market
that exists for such paper.
They were created to avoid the technical problems
arising from the physical disturbances between buyers
and seller. In other words it starts an order by a banks
customer for bank to pay a sum of money at a future
date to a given recipient.
ο‚· If the bank agrees and endorses the order for
payment by writing the word accepted on the face
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of the bill, the bank then assumes responsibility for
the ultimate payment to the holder of the
acceptance.
Repurchase Agreements
ο‚· Are short term loans normally for less than 2
weeks and frequently for one day arranged by
selling securities to an investor in an agreement to
repurchase the securities at a fixed price on a fixed
date.
ο‚· They are suitable for corporation of access fund
that they were to invest for very short periods.
Euro Dollar deposits
ο‚· Foreign currency deposits in a locally owned bank
branch or a foreign bank located outside the country.
They owe interest bearing.
Deposit held by the Central Bank
ο‚· Include interest bearing deposits held by banks and
other depository institutions at the Central Bank.
These are immediately available funds that
institutions borrow usually on an overnight basis.
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Participant in the Money Market
ο‚· Money market is not a physical place but network of
institution and individual who trade in short term
security.
ο‚· Major participants are of discount house, Merchant
Bank, Finance houses, Building societies, RBZ
individuals, Government and other companies.
ο‚· The financial institutions mentioned above make
money market, invest in money market securities.
ο‚· However the main investors in the money market in
Zimbabwe are companies that excess funds, for
example Insurance and Pensions funds companies.
The Capital Market
Question; Outline the role of the securities and exchange
commission of Zimbabwe in the Capital Market.
ο‚· The capital market includes the stock or equity
market whose secondary market is the Zimbabwe
Stock Exchange and also includes the Bond or Debt
Market for raising long term debt.
ο‚· These markets are also divided into primary and
secondary market, and most trading in this market is
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normally found in the secondary market between
investors willing to buy and those willing to sell them
after having brought them in either primary market
secondary market itself.
ο‚· In Zimbabwe the primary market are made up of
mainly the investment banks, Merchant banks and
Stock banking firms who underwrite and structure
deal for their clients for a fee.
ο‚· The other market where securities can be traded in
the secondary market is called the over counter
market “OTC” although not yet very developed in
Zimbabwe
Trading of Securities in the Capital Market
ο‚· Trading in Zimbabwe is restricted to the Zimbabwe
securities and is only done through stock broker who
are member of the stock exchange.
ο‚· An investor wishing to buy or selling the security has
to go through stock brokers.
ο‚· Investors place their order or instruction either to buy
or sell to the stocks.
ο‚· Broker specifying the name of the security, the
amount of securities and the indication price at the
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transaction has to be conducted among other thing.
The broking firm will collect all this information from
various investors willing to trade and then pass it on
to its brokers who are allowed to transact on the
stock exchange.
ο‚· For example investors A want to buy Econet share
and investor B want to sell Econet shares.
Investor B Bulawayo
Investor A Harare
.
Kingdom Bank
Kingdom Bank
DEALERS
.
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Stock Exchange
NB: kingdom is the brokerage firm for seller B and
buyer A
The work for a brokerage firm and are so called
because the investors pay commission to the
brokering firm for the securities that they render. The
investor who is selling will have to complete a
security transfer form also deliver the share
certificate to the broker before he receives payment.
The buyer also has to complete the security transfer
form soon after receiving the share certificate as an
acknowledgement of receiving the certificate.
However before receiving the certificate and signing
the form he should have paid for the shares endued +
commission.
The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange does not operate on a
continuous basis but it uses what is called a call over
system where brokers meet thrice a day and make
bid and ask prices and seek to reach an agreeable
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price for the trade. The price at which the deal takes
place will depend on the number of shares offered
for sale for the number of shares willing to be
purchased i.e. Demand and Supply. In planning
orders, investors have 3 general or broad types of
orders they can use i.e. The market order, The limit
order and The stop order.
In a Market Order, an investor instructs the broker to
buy or sell at the best price obtainable on the
market.
In a Limit Order, an investor specifies the price at
which the shares should be purchased or sold.
A Stop Order is only executed if certain conditions
occur e.g. selling or buying after a certain drop or
raise in the price.
The ZSE provides on a daily basis quotation and
indices basis on the previous day’s transaction.
Quotation given includes bid, ask and deal prices.
The bid is the price at which those who want to buy
are prepared to buy the shares whilst the ask price is
the price at which those who are selling would
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demand in order to part with their shares whereas
the deal price is the price at which transactions
actually took place.
The stock index provides a measure of the overall
performance of securities, equities traded on the
exchange on any particular day. The ZSE calculate 2
indices daily that the industrial and moving index
which are value weighted i.e. calculated by
multiplying the deal price (middle price) of each
share by the number of shares in issue for each
counter trade. Aggregate is calculated is then divided
by a reference figure called the base figure (usually
100).
Common Stock
These are known as ordinary shares or equity
securities because the investors who purchase such
shares in the company became part owners or
shareholders of the company. The level of ownership
will depend on number of shares purchased
compared will depend on the number of shares that
that has been issued by the company. Investors in
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ordinary shares can control the company through
their ability to vote.
Debentures or Bonds
A Bond is an interest bearing security that is used by
a company or government and any other
organization when it borrows long term capital. It’s a
long term promissory note and the debenture or
certificate provides evidence of borrowing and
outline the terms and conditions thereof. The
important features of the bond are as follows
1. Coupon Rate
2. Face Value
3. Maturity Value
4. Yield
Preferred Stock
Are hybrid securities i.e. they have features of both
common stock and debentures or bonds. They are similar
bonds in that the dividend rate is usually fixed and that
they have a priority claim over ordinary shares in both
the distribution of dividends and in case of liquidation.
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They are similar to common stock in that the dividend can
be skipped in times where profits are negative.
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
A financial intermediary is an institution which links
lenders and borrowers by obtaining deposits from lenders
and relending them to borrowers. Lenders are persons or
organizations in the economy with excess money and
they are sometimes referred to as surplus units.
Borrowers are persons or organizations in the economy
with the shortage of money and are also called the deficit
units. Financial intermediation exists to make easier the
process of money moving from surplus units to deficit
units. Financial intermediation can be subdivided into
banking and non banking.
Examples of non banking intermediaries
ο‚·
ο‚·
ο‚·
ο‚·
ο‚·
Insurance Company
Pension Funds
Unit Trust Company
Finance Houses
Investment Trust Company
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ο‚· Building Societies
Examples of banking intermediaries
ο‚· Commercial Banks
ο‚· Merchant Banks
ο‚· Discount Houses
Roles or Functions of Financial Intermediaries
Mobilizing and Allocation of resources
They receive deposits from surplus units and lend those in
deficit units
Risk Management
Through findings other projects and assessing their
relevance for funding.
Asset Transformation
Through taking many small deposits and aggregating
them into a big amount to fund larger projects.
Information Services
They give information to clients and the economy as a
whole.
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Liquidity Services
They provide finding and cash to the public to enable
transactions for day to day activities.
Monetary Policy Transmissions
The central bank implements its monetary policy through
commercial banks and discount houses.
Reduction of Transaction cost
Is brought about through employment for specialist for
certain respective areas or services
Payment Services
E.g. The use of ATMs, cheques and Point Of Sale facilities
(POSF).
Market Efficiency
It is a term used to describe the degree that stock prices
are a representative of all data that is collected with a
given market place. The efficiency of the market is usually
identified in degrees with a strong market efficiency
indicating that the prices are firmly and an accurate
reflection of what is happening in the market. If a stock
price does not appear to be related very strongly to
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prevailing market conditions that is expressed as a weak
market. An efficient market is one where the market price
is an unbiased estimate of the time value of the
investment. Market efficiency does not require that the
market price be equal to true value at every point in time.
All it requires is that errors in the market price be
unbiased i.e. prices can be greater than or less than the
true value as long as these deviations are random. The
fact that deviations from the true value are random
implies that there is an equal chance that stocks are
under or over valued at any point in time and these
deviations are not correlated with any observable
variable and this follows that no group of investors
should be able to consistently fund under or overvalued
stock using any investment strategy.
Classification Of The Equity Market Hypothesis
The equity market hypothesis was created by Eugene
Fama and this hypothesis suggests that any given time
price fully reflect all available information at a particular
share or the market in general. It can be classified into 3
forms that are weak form, semi strong and strong form.
Weak form
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Under weak form efficiency of the current price reflects
information contained in all past prices suggesting that
charts and technical analysis that use past prices alone
would not be useful in finding under or overvalued stocks.
Semi strong form
Under semi-strong efficiency, the current prices reflects
the information not only in past prices but all public
information and no approach that was benchmark on
using this information would e useful in finding over
valued stocks.
Strong form
Under strong form efficiency, the current price reflects all
information, public as well as private and no investors
will be able to consistently find undervalued stocks.
In Reality
1. There are investors who have beaten the market
consistently such as Warren Buffet (a very successful
investor) put it, “I would be a bam in the street with
a cup tin if the markets were efficient.”
2. There are consistent patterns present in the market
and the most obvious is the January effect and
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weekend effect. In January it’s a tradition that higher
returns tend to be earned and prices tend to be
higher over the weekend.
3. In behavioral finance, it is revealed that there are
predictable patterns to be found on the stock market
as it currently operates, investors buy undervalued
shares and sell over valued shares.
As it has been suggested that short term investors buy
and sell latest stocks the result of which is distortion in
market price. This demonstrates the prices that prices
are actually altered by investors’ actions. However the
theory of Equity Market Hypothesis counters this
because it does not actually dismiss the possibilities of
anomalies that can lead to the generation of abnormal
profits. Investing in a market in which people believe in
efficiency is like playing poker against those who
believe it does not pay to look at the cards.
E.g. An investor pays $9500 for a year treasury bill and
will obtain $10000 for that treasury bill at maturity.
Calculate the discount rate.
𝐷
365
𝑃
4
Discount Rate = ×
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Discount Rate =
500
10000
×
365
365
× 100
Discount Rate = 5%
Represents the difference between the sale price and
the original purchase price
21463.95 – 20000 =
1453.95
20000
×
365
88
× 100
= 30.6%
Treasury Bills
They are issued by the government for short periods as a
way of financing the government expenditure. They are
referred to as risk free money market instruments. They
are sol at discount of the face value.
If you buy a 91 day treasury bill with a yield of 25% and a
face of 100 million calculate the cost of the bill.
Value Treasury bill = face value – [π‘“π‘Žπ‘π‘’ π‘£π‘Žπ‘™π‘’π‘’ ×
π‘‘π‘Žπ‘¦π‘  π‘‘π‘œ π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘‘π‘¦
π‘π‘Žπ‘ π‘’ π‘¦π‘’π‘Žπ‘Ÿ
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× π‘¦π‘–π‘’π‘™π‘‘]
Page 73
Value Treasury bill = 100 000 000 − [100 000 000 ×
91
365
× 25⁄100]
Value Treasury bill = 100 000 000 – 6232786.71
Value Treasury bill = $93 767 123.29
Discount rates on Discount instruments
DR =
𝐷
𝑃
× 365⁄𝐻
Where D = amount of discount in dollars
P = is the value of the discount instrument e.g.
Treasury bill
H = the number of days remaining until maturity
Formula
1) Purchase price =Face value ×
(π‘π‘œπ‘’π‘π‘œπ‘› ×π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘”π‘–π‘›π‘Žπ‘™ 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒 )×𝐡 ×100
(π‘Œπ‘‡π‘€ ×π‘‘π‘Žπ‘¦ π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘›π‘”) +𝐡 ×100
WHERE YTM = Yield to maturity i.e. rate required In
secondary market trading or the current
rate.
B = our daily base
Coupon = interest rate payable or original deposit.
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2) Purchase price =
𝑓
𝐷
𝐡
[1+ ( ×π‘Œ)]
WHERE f = principal + interest
D = days to maturity
B = base year number of days
Y = yield for a CD holder
Calculate the value of CD which was issued in the
previous example but now with 10 days to maturity and a
yield of 25%
Purchase price =
=
=
𝑓
𝐷
𝐡
[1 + (
×π‘Œ)]
20000 +1610.96
10 25
× )]
365 100
[1 + (
21610.96
1.006849312
= $21 463.95
Calculate the amount to be invested so that an amount of
$10 000 can be realized after 2 years at 135 per annum.
PV = (
10000
1 +0.31)2
=
10000
1.716
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= $5827.17
Money Market Products
Certificate of deposit
A certificate of deposit is a record which shows that an
investor has placed some funds with some (usually a
financial institution). It records and shows the rate of
deposit.
E.g. A bank issues a certificate of deposit for $20 000 at
rate of 30% for period of 98 days. Calculate the interest
payable of the certificate of deposit.
I = 20 000 × 0.3 ×
98
365
= $ 1610.96
Secondary Market Pricing for a Certificate of Deposit
The value of a certificate of deposit in the secondary
market is determined by 2 periods.
1) The period for which the CD has run
2) The period left to run
Calculate Effective annual yield, this formula is used
where compounding is being done more than once a year
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π‘Ÿ 𝑛
Effective yield = [(1 + ) − 1] × 100
𝑛
An investment pay 15% semi annually. Calculate the
effective annual yield.
Effective yield = [(1 +
0.15 2
2
) − 2] × 100
= 1+0.0752 − 1
= 15.5625%
Annual yield is higher than semi-annual because one
investment pays 15% and the other pays interest on
investment.
Discounting
Is the reverse of compounding, in this case the investors
wants the amount which should be invested now in order
to realize some specified amount at a given rate for a
given period of time.
𝐹𝑉𝑛
1+π‘Ÿ )𝑛
Formula PV = (
r =
45
2000×0.041
r = 48.67
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Compound interest
Compounding refers to investments which are placed in
banks for fixed period within a year. The interest received
is not paid out but reinvested so that the investor ends up
realizing interest on the principal and interest on the
added interest as well.
𝐹𝑉𝑛 = 𝑃(1 + π‘Ÿ)𝑛 WHERE 𝐹𝑉𝑛 = future value
p = Principal
n = number of compounding periods
Calculate the future value for $200 investment made for
60 days attracting 25% interest and maintained for 365
days.
𝐹𝑉𝑛 = 200(1 + 25%)1
= 200(1 +
0.25)6
= 200(1.25)6
= 762.94
A customer places $100 for 3 years at an annual
yield and 40%. Calculate the future value assuming
annual compounding.
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𝐹𝑉𝑛=100(1+0.4)3
= 100(1.04)3
= 274.4
Issue and Dealing Mathematics
Basic Arithmetic and Interest rates
Financial institution deal in 2 types of securities
1) Interest bearing securities
2) Discount instruments
Those securities differ in the manner in which yield rates
are calculated
Calculation of simple interest
SI is calculated as a percentage of the principal
I = 𝑃 × π‘… × π‘‡ where; I = Simple interest amount
P = Principal amount
R = Rate per annum
T = Time expressed in years
QUESTION
A customer places $1000 in a bank for a period of 135
days. The customer receives 39% per annum. Calculate
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his interest based on the information given above,
assuming no withdrawal ax is charged.
I = 1000 ×
39
100
×
135
365
= 144.246
Calculate the rate given to a customer who places 2000 in
a bank account for 15 days and receives $45 as his
interest amount.
45 =2000 × π‘… ×
15
365
45 = 82R
R=
45
82
× 100
R = 54.9%
By taking weighted average we can see how much
interest the company has to pay for every demand it
finances
E.g. the expected return on the market is 13% with a risk
free market rate of 7% along its corporate tax of 35%.
Horizon financial services have a beta of 1.29 and a debt
to equity ratio of 1.What is Horizon cost of equity and the
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weighted average cost of capital when the firm has a
before tax cost of debt of 7%.
= 𝑅𝑓 + 𝐡(π‘…π‘š − 𝑅𝑓 )
= 7 + 1.29(13% − 7%)
= 14.74
The firm has a debt at market value of $60 000 000. The
firm pays a 50% rate of interest on its new debt and has a
beta of 1.41, assume that the risk premium of the market
is 8.5% and the TB rate is 11%
Required
I. Compute Weighted Average Cost of Capital for the
firm
II. Calculate the price of a TB if par value is $1000,
maturity is 3 months and discount is 7.5%
It is a calculation of firm’s cost of capital in which each
category of capital is proportionally weighed. Weighted
Average cost of capital of a firm increases as the beta
and rate of return on equity increases. Weighted Average
Cost of Capital equation is the cost of each capital
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component multiplied by its proportional weigh and then
summed up.
𝑬
𝑫
𝑽
𝑽
Formula: × π‘Ήπ’† + × π‘Ήπ’… × (𝟏 − 𝑻𝒄)
WHERE: Re = Cost of equity
Rd = Cost of debt
E = Market value if the firm’s equity
D = Market value of the firm’s debt
V=𝐸+𝐷
𝐷
𝑉
𝐸
𝑉
= Percent of financing that is debt
= Percent of financing that is equity
Tc = Corporate tax value
Free rate is 7%, what is the appropriate discount rate for
the new project assuming a market risk of 8.5%?
Ř = 𝑅𝑓 + 𝐡(Ε˜π‘š − 𝑅𝑓)
= 7 + (1.3)(8.5)
= 18.05
Cost of debt
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Refers to the effective rate that a company pays on its
current debt. This can be measured in either before or
after tax returns. A company will use various bonds, loans
and other forms of debt, so this measure is useful for
giving an idea as to all the overall rate being paid by the
company to use debt financing. This measure can also
give investors an idea as to riskiness of the company
compared to other companies. Riskier companies
generally have a high cost of debt. To get the after tax
rate, simply multiply the before tax rate by 1 minus the
marginal tax rate i.e. after tax rate
=𝒃𝒆𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒆 𝒕𝒂𝒙 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆 × (𝟏 − π’Žπ’‚π’“π’ˆπ’Šπ’π’‚π’ 𝒕𝒂𝒙 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆).
If a company’s only debt were a single bond in which if
paid 5%, the before tax cost of debt would be simply 5%.
If however the company’s marginal tax rate were 40%
the company’s after tax cost of debt would only be 3% =
5% × (1 − 40%)
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
When firm finances with both debt and equity, the
discount rate to use is the project’s overall cost of capital.
The overall cost of capital is the weighted average cost of
debt and the cost of equity.
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Cost of Equity Capital
Whenever a firm has extra cash, it can take one of two
actions
I. It can pay out the cash immediately as dividends. OR
II. It can invest the extra cash in a project, paying out
the future cash flows of the project as dividends.
From a firm’s perspective, the expected return is the cost
of equity capital
Using
The capital asset pricing model
Ř = Rf+𝑩 × (Ε˜π’Ž − 𝑹𝒇)
WHERE: Řm−Rf = Market risk premium
B = the company Beta
R = Expected return
Rf = Risk free market
E.g. suppose the stock of Mutare Poly has a beta of 1.5
the firm is 100% equity financed. Mutare Poly is
considering a number of capital budgeting projects are
similar to Mutare Poly’s existing ones, the average beat
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on the new projects is assumed to be equal to its existing
beta. The risk the highest returns in compensation.
Debt finance
Long term debt finance carries less risk for investors
than equity finance and this is reflected in its lower
required rate of return. Debt can be engineered to suit
the requirements of the companies and investors e.g. a
new issue of debt securities can be made attractive to
investors by attaching warrants to it. These give the
holder the subscribe for ordinary shares at an attractive
price (exercise price in future).
Leasing
Is a form of short to medium term financing which in
essence refers to hire an asset under an agreed contract.
The company hiring the asset is called the lessee and the
company owning the asset is called the lesser. It’s a
source of financing where the lessee obtains use of an
asset for a period of time while legal title of the asset
remains with the lesser.
Advantages of leasing
ο‚· It’s an off balance sheet source of finance.
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ο‚· Allows small company access to expensive assets.
ο‚· Allows a company to avoid obsolescence to some
assets.
ο‚· It can be a source of finance if a company is short of
liquidity.
Economy Pi
condition
Xi(%)
[π‘₯𝑖
2
Piπ‘₯𝑖 −
∑(π‘₯𝑖 )
− ∑(π‘₯𝑖 )]
Horrid
0.15
10
Bad
0.25
20
Average
0.50
25
Good
0.10
30
144(10
− 22)2
4(20
− 22)2
9(25
− 22)2
64(30
− 22)2
216(144
× 0.15)
1(4
× 0.25)
4.5(9
× 0.50)
6.4(64
× 0.10)
∑ 33.5
Sources of Business Finance
Internal finance
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It emanates from the cash generated by the company we
be not needed to operating costs, interest payment, tax
liabilities, cash dividend or fixed assets replacements. This
surplus cash is called retained earnings. Another source
of internal finance is saving that can be generated by
more efficient management of working capital.
External Finance
Can be split into debt or equity finance. It can also be
classified account to whether its short terms (less than
one year, medium term (1 to 5 years) or long term (+5)
account to whether it’s traded (for examples ordinary
share s or untraded (bank loans).
Equity finance
Is raised through the sale of ordinary shares to investors.
This sale may be through the stock market or through a
right issue. Ordinary shareholders are the ultimate
bearers of the risk associated in the business activities of
the company they own. Since ordinary shareholders earn
the greatest risk of any of the providers of long term
finance, they expect the return on an asset.
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Economic
Condition
Horrid
Bad
Average
Good
Pi
Xi (%)
0.15
0.25
0.50
0.10
10
20
25
30
Calculate the expected Return
=10(0.15) + 20 (0.25) +25 (0.50) + 30 (0.10)
=22%
Risk of a Single Asset
ο‚· Is measured using variance and standard deviation.
ο‚· Variance; is the average of the mean squared error
term.
ο‚· Mean to Error: Is the square of the difference
between a given return (Xi) and the average of all
return is the E(R).
ο‚· formula: [π‘₯𝑖 − 𝐸 (π‘₯𝑖 )]2 i =1
Variance is the expectation of the mean squared error
terms and therefore it’s given as Variance (0−2 )
=∑ 𝑝𝑖 [π‘₯𝑖 − (π‘₯𝑖 )]
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Standard Deviation =√π‘£π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘Žπ‘›π‘π‘’ .
Calculate from previous example, the variance (0−2 )
0−2 =∑ 𝑝𝑖 [π‘₯𝑖 − (π‘₯𝑖 )]2
i=1
Return and Risk Analysis for A Single Asset
Risk
Is the volatility of a security’s return?
Expected Return
Due to, it may be difficult to know the except return on a
particular financial investment.
However possible outcomes or returns may be
determined depending on different situations that may
prevail in future. Expected return is a return that an
individual expects a stock to earn in the next period.
Because it is an expectation it maybe either higher or
lower than the actual return. It may simply be the mean
or average return per period of a security has earned in
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the past. The expected return or mean return is the
probability of observing each rate of return multiplied by
rate of return and then sunned up across all possible
returns.
Formula = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖 × π‘–
Expected Return of a single asset
Mathematically the Expected Return of a single asset is
defined as
∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖 × π‘–
WHERE n = number of possible outcomes
Pi = probability of observing the 𝑖 π‘‘β„Ž rate of return
Xi = is the 𝑖 π‘‘β„Ž rate of return
Where probabilities are not given, assume equal chance
for all outcomes
Project/ Investment Appraisal/ Capital Budgeting
The basic objective of investment spending is to meet
firm’s objectives of which the central objective is taken to
be profitable in the long run. It is expressed as the
maximization of shareholders wealth.
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For this reason, the starting point for any discussion of
investment appraisal is the assumption that the ultimate
objective of investment is to maximize the value of the
firm. First an investment schedule is necessary to replace
the existing equipment . Secondly investment maybe
needed in support of expansion. Thirdly investment
maybe required for reasons of compliance with
government regulations. Whatever the immediate
objective of investment, the fundamental purpose is to
enhance the value of the firm.
Certain techniques are available to appraise each project
and may essentially be the same across projects.
Investment appraisal may have or may aim at 3 basic
objectives;
1) Deciding to accept or reject the project
2) To rank different projects
3) To choose between mutually exclusive
alternatives
Methods Of Investment Appraisal
The following are some of the methods used to analyze
long term investments.
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1) Payback Period Method
2) Account Rate Of Return (ARR)
3) Net Present Value (NPV)
4) Internal Rate Of Return (IRR)
5) Modified Internal Rate Of Return (MIRR)
6) Discounted Payback Period (DPP)
7) Profitability Index (PI)
Payback Period Method
Is the time an investment takes to recover the Initial
Outlay (Io).
For an annuity, payback =
πΌπ‘›π‘–π‘‘π‘–π‘Žπ‘™ π‘œπ‘’π‘‘π‘™π‘Žπ‘¦
π‘Žπ‘›π‘’π‘Žπ‘™ π‘π‘Žπ‘ β„Ž π‘“π‘™π‘œπ‘€π‘ 
For a unequal cash flows, payback =
πΌπ‘œ−𝐢𝑑
𝐢𝐹𝑑+1
Where t = last full year in which cumulative cash flows
are less than the initial outlay
𝐢𝐹𝑑+1 = is the cash flow in the year t + 1
Ct = cumulative cash flow in year t.
The aim is to accept or reject projects which exceed the
cutoff period. If the aim is to rank projects, those with the
shortest payback period rank higher. If the aim is to make
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initially exclusive projects, one with shortest payback
period will be chosen. For independent projects, all
projects with a payback period below a given hurdle must
be taken subject to availability of funds.
Advantages of Payback Period
ο‚· Easy to calculate and understand.
ο‚· It measures the risk of the project.
Disadvantages O f Payback Period
ο‚·
ο‚·
ο‚·
ο‚·
It is biased towards short term projects.
It does not consider cash flow variability.
Does not cash flow after payback period.
It ignores the time value of money
Discounted Payback Period
Instead of using the whole cash flows, it applies cash
flows but uses the same concept as payback period.
𝐢𝑑
(1+π‘Ÿ)𝑑
𝑑+πΌπ‘œ−
Formula = 𝐢𝐹𝑑
⁄(
1+π‘Ÿ )1+1
Net Present Value Method
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Is the essence of investment appraisal lays in comparing
values of outlays and returns which occur on different
times, the principle of discounting provides a solution to
the basing problem. Returns occurring over the life time
of the project may be reduced to a single figure
representing the present value of those steams of cash
flows which is called NPV. NPV is defined as the surplus or
deficit of the present values of incremental cash flows
over the initial outlay.
𝑁𝐢𝐹1
1+π‘Ÿ )1
NPV = Io +(
𝑁𝐢𝐹2
1+π‘Ÿ )2
+(
𝑁𝐢𝐹3
𝑁𝐢𝐹𝑛
β‹―
(1+π‘Ÿ )𝑛
1+π‘Ÿ )3
+(
Where NCF = Net cash flows arising in different years
R = The opportunity cost of capital
For initially exclusive projects, the one with highest
positive NPV should be chosen. For those independent
projects, all those with positive NPV should be chosen
subject to availability of funds.
Advantages Of NPV
ο‚· Takes into account the time value of money because
it discounts future cash flows into present value
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ο‚· It takes into account all possible cash flow of the
project
Disadvantages Of NPV
ο‚· Does not take into account the time taken to recoup
the initial outlay.
ο‚· The concept of value added may not be easily
appreciated as a measure of return because people
are more comfortable with percentage returns.
Internal Rate Of Return (IRR)
Is the discount rate which leads to an NPV of zero i.e. the
present value of future cash flows should result in zero.
IRR = π‘Ÿ1+[
𝑁1
]×(π‘Ÿ2 −π‘Ÿ1 )
𝑁1 +𝑁2
Where π‘Ÿ1=π‘‘π‘–π‘ π‘π‘œπ‘’π‘›π‘‘ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘ 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠 π‘Ž π‘π‘œπ‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘–π‘£π‘’ 𝑁𝑃𝑉
π‘Ÿ2=π‘‘π‘–π‘ π‘π‘œπ‘’π‘›π‘‘ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘ 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠 π‘Ž π‘›π‘’π‘”π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘£π‘’ 𝑁𝑃𝑉
𝑁1=𝑁𝑃𝑉 π‘€π‘–π‘‘β„Ž π‘Ÿ1 π‘Žπ‘  π‘‘π‘–π‘ π‘π‘œπ‘’π‘›π‘‘ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’
𝑁2=𝑁𝑃𝑉 π‘€π‘–π‘‘β„Ž π‘Ÿ2 π‘Žπ‘  π‘‘π‘–π‘ π‘π‘œπ‘’π‘›π‘‘ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’
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This method is based on trial and error. The decision rule
is that accept the project if the IRR exceeds the
opportunity cost of capital. If the IRR is less than the
opportunity cost of capital, the project should be
rejected. For mutually exclusive projects take the one
with highest IRR above the cost of capital. For
independent projects accepts all projects with IRR above
the cost of capital subject to the availability of funds.
Advantages Of IRR
ο‚· Considers the time value of money.
ο‚· It uses the opportunity cost of capital.
ο‚· It considers all possible cash flows.
Disadvantages Of IRR
ο‚· Time consuming as it is based on trial and error.
ο‚· It assumes that opportunity cost remains constant
and therefore can’t be used where opportunity cost
is expected to change along the investment horizon.
Accounting Rate Of Return
May take a use of different forms but consists essentially
of estimating net profits occurring over the project’s life
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cycle. It calculates the average profits as a percentage of
initial outlay to give an estimated rate of return.
Formula =
π‘Žπ‘£π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘”π‘’ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘“π‘–π‘‘
π‘Žπ‘£π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘”π‘’ π‘–π‘›π‘£π‘’π‘ π‘‘π‘šπ‘’π‘›π‘‘
× 100
ο‚· If the rate of return exceeds the firm’s minimum
requirement then the project is accepted. Projects
are ranked by minimum rate of return.
Advantages Of ARR
ο‚· Simple to calculate.
ο‚· It shows return on investment as a percentage
Disadvantages Of ARR
ο‚· Does not take into account the time value of money.
ο‚· It only shows the accounting profits and does not
show whether cash flow occur or not in the
accounting period. It does not take into account cash
flow risk.
Profitability Index (PI)
PI =
π‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘ π‘’π‘›π‘‘ π‘£π‘Žπ‘™π‘’π‘’ π‘œπ‘“ π‘π‘Žπ‘ β„Ž π‘“π‘™π‘œπ‘€
π‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘ π‘’π‘›π‘‘ π‘£π‘Žπ‘™π‘’π‘’ π‘œπ‘“ πΌπ‘œ
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PI =
𝐢𝐼𝐹𝑑
(1+π‘Ÿ)𝑑
𝐢𝑂𝐹𝑑
∑𝑛
𝑑=0(1+π‘Ÿ)𝑑
∑𝑛
𝑑=0
Where 𝐢𝐼𝐹𝑑 = π‘π‘Žπ‘ β„Ž π‘–π‘›π‘“π‘™π‘œπ‘€ π‘Žπ‘‘ π‘‘π‘–π‘šπ‘’ 𝑑
𝐢𝑂𝐹𝑑=
π‘π‘Žπ‘ β„Ž π‘œπ‘’π‘‘π‘“π‘™π‘œπ‘€ π‘Žπ‘‘ π‘‘π‘–π‘šπ‘’ 𝑑
The PI shows the relative profitability of any project. The
project is acceptable if PI is greater than initial outlay. In
other words cash inflows are greater than cash outflows.
The higher the PI, the higher the projects ranking.
PRACTICAL 2
You have been contracted by an indigenous business to
start up a company to advice on the decision to select
either of the two mutually exclusive projects i.e. Goat
rearing and Bee keeping. After a thorough research on
the projects you have come with the following
information;
The cost of capital is 10%
The cash flows are as below
Goat Rearing
Year
Cash flow
0
(25000)
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Bee keeping
Year
0
Cash flow
(14000)
Page 98
1
2
3
4
7000
10000
16000
15000
1
2
3
4
2500
5000
9000
12000
Advise the company on which of the two projects to
implement using;
a. Payback period [4]
b. The discounted payback method [6]
c. Net Present Value [6]
d. The Profitability Index [6]
e. Accounting Rate of Return [4]
f. The Internal Rate Of Return [8]
Define and explain capital budgeting [6]
Returns and Risk Analysis For A Single Asset
Risk is the volatizing of a security’s return.
Expected Return [E(R)] Due to risk, it may be difficult to
know the exact return on a particular financial
investment. However possible outcomes or returns may
be determined depending on different estimations that
may prevail in the future. Expected return is a return that
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an individual expects a stock to earn in the next period
because it is an expectation, it may be either higher or
lower than the actual outcome. It may simply be the
mean or average return per period a security has earned
in the past. The E(R) or mean return is the probability of
observing each rate in return and then summed up across
all possible returns.
Formula = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖𝑋𝑖
Expected return of a single asset
Mathematically the E(R) of a single asset is defined as
∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖𝑋𝑖
N = number of possible outcomes
Pi = probability of observing the 𝑖 π‘‘β„Ž rate of return
Xi = is the 𝑖 π‘‘β„Ž rate of return
Where probabilities are not given, assume equal chance
for all outcomes
Economic
condition
Horrid
Bad
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Pi
Xi%
0.15
0.25
10
20
Page 100
Average
0.50
good
0.10
Calculate the expected return
25
30
Answer =10(0.15) + 20(0.25) + 25(0.50) + 30(0.10)
= 22%
Risk of a single asset
Is measured using variance and Sd
Variance: is the average of the mean squared error terms
π‘΄π’†π’‚π’πŸ : is the square of the difference between a given
return Xi and the average of all the returns i.e. E(R)
π‘€π‘’π‘Žπ‘›2 π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘Ÿ = [𝑋𝑖 − 𝐸 (𝑋𝑖 )]2
Variance is the expectation of the mean squared error
terms and therefore it is given as;
Formula 𝜎=2 ∑𝑛
2
𝑖=𝑖 𝑝𝑖 [𝑋𝑖−𝐸 (𝑋𝑖 )]
Standard deviation (Sd)
Formula = √π‘£π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘Žπ‘›π‘π‘’
Calculate from the previous example, the variance and
standard deviation
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𝑛
2
𝜎 2= ∑𝑖=1 𝑃𝑖[𝑋𝑖−𝐸(𝑋𝑖)]
Economic
condition
Horrid
Bad
Average
good
total
Pi
Xi
0.15
0.25
0.50
0.10
10
20
25
30
[𝑋𝑖
− 𝐸 (𝑋𝑖 )]2
144
4
9
64
𝑃𝑖𝑋𝑖
− 𝐸 (𝑋𝑖 )2
21.6
1.5
4.5
6.4
33.5
Management Of Working Capital
Long term investment and financing decision give rise to
future C.F which can be discounted by an appropriate
cost of capital, determine market value of a company.
However, such a long term decision will only result in the
expected benefits for a company if attention is also paid
to short term decisions regarding to current assets and
current liabilities. Current assets and current liabilities
need to be managed carefully. Net working capital is the
term given to the difference between current assets and
current liabilities.
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The level of current assets is a key factor in a company’s
liquidity position. A company must have or be able to
generate enough cash to meet its short term needs if it’s
to continue in business. Without the ‘oil’ of working
capital, the ‘engine’ of fixed assets will not function.
Objectives of working capital management
Two main objectives of working capital are;
1. To increase profitability of a company.
2. To ensure that the company has sufficient liquidity to
meet short term obligation as thye fall due and so as
to continue in business.
These positive goals of profitability and liquidity will often
conflict since liquid assets give the lowest returns.
Working Capital Policies
A company should have working capital policies on the
management of stock, debtors, cash and short term
investments in order to minimize the probability of
managers to make decisions which are not in the best
interests of the company. E.g. suboptimal decisions like
giving credit to customers who are unlikely to pay and
ordering stocks of raw materials. Working capital policies
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need to consider the nature of a company’s business
since different business will have different working
capital requirements.
Cash Management
Cash consists of the firm’s holdings of currency and
demand deposits. There are three motives of holding
cash;
1. Transactional motive
2. Precautionary motive
3. Speculative motive
However, sound working capital management requires
maintenance of an ample amount of cash for several
other specific reasons;
Reason 1: it’s essential that the firm has sufficient cash to
take advantage of trade discounts.
Reason 2: since the current and the acid test ratio are key
items in credit analysis, it’s essential that the firm needs
to maintain credit standing, meet the standards of the
line of business in which it is engaged. A credit standing
enables the firm to purchase goods from trade suppliers
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on favorable terms and to maintain its line of credit with
banks and other sources of credit.
Reason 3: ample cash is useful for taking advantage of
favorable business opportunity that may come along
from time to time.
Reason 4: the firm should have sufficient liquidity to meet
emergencies like strikes, fires or marketing campaign of
competitors.
Financial managers may be able to improve the inflowoutflow pattern through better synchronization of flow,
expediting collections and cheque clearing, showing
disbursements and through using float (the leg between
the time the cheque is written until the time, the bank
receives it)
Optimum Cash Levels
The optimum amount of cash held will depend on the
following factors;
1. Foams of the future cash inflows and outflows.
2. The efficiency with which the cash flows of the
company are managed.
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3. The availability of liquid assets of the company –
anything you can dispose at a lesser cost.
4. The borrowing capability of the company.
5. The company’s tolerance capacity of risks
The Investment of surplus cash
Cash which is surplus to immediate needs should earn by
being on a short term basis without risk of capital loss.
Factors which should be considered when choosing an
appropriate investment method for short term cash
surplus are;
1. The size of surplus as some investments methods
have minimum amounts.
2. The cash with an investment can be realized.
3. When the investment is expected to mature.
4. The risk and yield of a investment
5. Any penalties which may be incurred for any
liquidity.
Management Of Debtors
Key variables affecting the level of debtors include the
terms of sales which are prevalent in the company’s area
of business and the ability of the company to match and
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service comparable terms of sales. There is a relationship
between the level of debtors and company’s pricing
policy. The effectiveness of debtor follow up procedures
will also influence the level of debtor and the likelihood of
bad debtors arising. The debtor management policy
decided upon by senior managers should also take into
account the administrative cost of debt collection. In
order to operate its debtors policy a company needs to
set up a credit analysis, a credit control system and a
debtor collection system.
1) Credit Analysis System
The risk of bad debts can be minimized if the credit
worthiness of new customers is carefully assessed
before credit is granted and if the credit worthiness
of customers is revealed on a regular basis.
Sources Of Information In Credit Analysis
Bank references: these indicate the financial
standing of the potential borrower.
Trade references: these give an incite into
satisfying conduct of business affairs.
Credit references agency: a credit agency report
includes a company profile, recent
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accounts, financial ratios and industry companies,
analysis of trade industry, type of borrowing, credit limits
and previous financial position.
2) Credit Control System
Customer account should be kept within the agreed
audit limit and credit granted should be revealed
periodically to ensure that it remains appropriate.
Invoices and receipts should be carefully checked to
ensure there is accuracy and dispatched quickly.
Under no circumstances should customers who
exceed agreed credit limits be able to obtain goods.
Insurance Against Bad Debts
Whole turnover requirements cover any debt below the
agreed amount against the risk of payments. Specific
accounts insurance allows the company to ensure key
accounts against defaults and maybe useful for major
customers.
Discounts For early payments
Cash discount s may encourage early payments, but the
cost of such discounts must be less than the total
financing savings resulting from lower debtors’ balances,
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any administrative of financing savings owing from
shorter debtor collection periods, and any benefits from
lower bad debts.
Factoring
Factoring companies offer a range of services in the area
of sales admin and the collection of amounts due from
debtors. A factor can offer cash in advance against the
security of debtors allowing a company ready access to
cash as soon as the credits are made.
The factor usually does not have resource to the company
for the compensation in the event of non-payment and
this is termed as non-resource factoring. There is however
a reduction in admin costs and the company will have
access to the factor experties in credit analysis and
control.
Advantages offered to the company through factoring
ο‚· Prompt payments of supplies.
ο‚· Reduction in the amount of working capital tied up in
debtors.
ο‚· Financing growth through sales.
ο‚· Savings on admin costs.
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ο‚· Benefits occurring to the company from the factor
experience in credit analysis and control.
Management Of Stock
Significant amounts of working capital can be invested in
stocks of raw materials work in progress and finished
goods. Stocks of raw materials and work in progress
come out as a buffer between different stages of the
production process and so ensure its smooth separation.
A stock of finished goods allows the sales department to
satisfy customer demand without unreasonable delay
and potential loss of sales. Benefits of holding stock must
be weighted against any cost incurred. Costs which may
be incurred include;
1) Holding costs such as insurance, rentals, power
e.tc
2) Replacement costs which include the cost of
obsolete stock.
3) The opportunity cost of cash tied up in the stock
The Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)
This model establishes an optimum level of stock by
balancing the cost of holding stock against the cost of
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ordering fresh supplies. It then uses optimal level of
stock as the basis of a minimum cost procurement
policy. The model assumes that for the period under
considerations, cost and activity are constant and
known with certainty. The EOQ occurs where total cost
which is the sum of the annual holding cost and the
annual ordering cost is at a minimum.
Total annual cost = annual holding cost + annual
ordering cost
πœ‡ 𝑇𝐢 =
𝑄×𝐻
2
+
𝑆×𝐹
2
Where Q = order quantity in units.
H = holding cost per unit per year.
S = annual demand in units per year.
F = ordering cost per order.
The minimum total cost is when holding cost and
ordering cost are equal.
Putting holding cost equal to ordering cost and
rearranging gives Q = √
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2×𝑆×𝐹
𝐻
Page 111
Q is now the EOQ. That is the order quantity that
minimizes the sum of holding cost and ordering cost.
E.g. a company sells soap which it buys in boxes of
1000 bars with ordering cost of $5 per year and holding
cost of 50cents per year per 1000 bars. What is EOQ
and the average stock level for this stock.
2×𝑆×𝐹
EOQ (Q) = √
𝐻
2×200000×5
0.50⁄
1000
=√
400000×5
= √ 0.50
⁄1000
=√
2000000
0.0005
= √4000000000
= 63245.55 bars
Average stock =
=
𝐸𝑂𝑄
2
63245.55
2
= 31622.775 bars
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Overtrading (undercapitalization)
How do increase in turnover cause overtrading
Occurs if a company is trying to support too large a
volume of trade from too to small working capital
base. It means the demand for funds is greater than
the supply for funds to the company. Even if a company
is spending at a profit overtrading can result in a
liquidity crisis with the company unable meet its debt
as they fall due because cash has been absorbed by
growth in fixed assets, stock and debtors. Overtrading
can be caused by a rapid increase in turnover, perhaps
as a result of a successful marketing campaign where
provisions for the necessary associated investments in
fixed assets and current assets was not met.
Overtrading can also result in the early years of new
business if it starts off with insufficient capital. This
may be due to a mistaken belief that sufficient capital
could be generated from trading profits and ploughed
back into business. Overtrading may be due to erosion
of company’s capital base due to non replacement of
long term loan financing their repayment.
Indications of overtrading
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ο‚· Rapid growth in sales over a relatively short
period.
ο‚· Rapid growth in the amount of current assets.
ο‚· Deteriorating stock days and debtor days ratios.
ο‚· Increasing use of trade credit to finance growth in
current assets (increasing creditors days).
ο‚· Declining liquidity indicated by falling quick ratio.
ο‚· Declining profitability, perhaps due to using
discounts to increase sales.
ο‚· A lack of cash and liquid investments.
Strategies to deal with overtrading
ο‚· Introduction of new capital most preferably equity
capital.
ο‚· Improved working capital management.
ο‚· Reducing business activity.
Questions
1. Discuss the possible reasons why a company might
experience cash flow problems and suggest ways
in which such problems might be alienated.
2. Suggest ways in which companies can exercise
control over their level of working capital.
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Principles of banking
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