FMCG MONITOR
An integrated view of Indonesia FMCG market
Q1 2023 in-home edition | Featured Focus – Consumer Spending in Festive
Executive
Summary
1
MARKET
UPDATE
2
FMCG
PERFORMANCE
3
The FMCG shows a resilient growth of
5%, consistent with last year. A
slowing down spend per trip suggests
opting for smaller packs or more
affordable products may be a
strategy to maintain overall
spending.
In Q1 '23, the GDP displayed
resilience with steady growth at 5%
and stable household consumption
compared to the previous quarter,
suggesting relatively healthy
macroeconomic indicators.
SHOPPER
BEHAVIOUR
Steady growth in consumer spending
was also seen this quarter vs last
year with more spending for FMCG,
transport, and fashion as might be
attributed to the upcoming festive
season.
Despite inflation remaining at 5%,
steady consumer confidence
captures the resilience of the
economy, indicating that consumers
can cope well with the price increase.
Price increases continue to be the
growth driver across SES, presenting
greater challenges for lower-class
consumers who are experiencing a
declining shopping frequency.
.
4
SEGMENT
PERFORMANCE
In F & B segments, spending growth
is mainly driven by price, while home
care and personal care manage to
grow volume hence important to
formulate the price-pack strategy to
secure shopper recruitment.
5
RETAILERS
SNAPSHOT
Anchoring growth in the proximity
channels remains important.
Expanding online presence looks to
be a valuable opportunity as it is the
only channel experiencing consistent
growth in gaining more buyers and
increasing frequency.
6
.EMERGING
TRENDS
This year's Ramadan season is still
full of festivity and celebration, but
consumers are showing increased
caution when it comes to spending.
Our latest study via Kantar Panel
Home Survey reveals that consumers
are prioritizing their expenses to
maintain their cash outlay despite
receiving THR but they still spend
more on purchases related to
Ramadan, Eid, and mudik.
2
Indonesia Economy
Growth
INDONESIA GDP
YoY GROWTH RATE %
5,01
Q1 '22
5,44
5,72
Q2 '22
Q3 '22
INDONESIA GDP
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE %
5,2
5,02
5,01
5,03
Q4 '22
Q1 '23
5,31
3,69
FY 2018
FY 2019
FY 2020
FY 2021
FY 2022
-2,07
GDP Growth YoY%
In Q1 '23, the GDP displayed
resilience with steady growth at
5% and stable household
consumption compared to the
previous quarter, suggesting
relatively healthy
macroeconomic indicators.
Q4 22
Q1 23
4.93
4.54
Investment
5.64
6.17
Government Spending
-4.51
3.99
Export
16.28
11.68
Import
14.75
2.77
Household Consumption
Source: Trading Economics, Central Bureau on Statistics (BPS) | *Exclude Delivery Services
3
Indonesian
Consumers
INFLATION RATE | YoY Growth %
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI)
123
4,97
111
93
1,37
Mar '21
2,06
Mar '22
Mar '23
Mar '21
Mar '22
Mar '23
USD EXCHANGE RATE
Despite inflation remaining at
5%, steady consumer
confidence captures the
resilience of the economy,
indicating that consumers can
cope well with the price
increase.
14.269
14.368
14.751
Mar '21
Mar '22
Source: Trading Economics, Central Bureau on Statistics (BPS)
Mar '23
4
Shoppers allocate their spending more
toward primary needs
Steady growth in consumer spending was also seen
this quarter vs last year with more spending for
FMCG, transport, and fashion as might be attributed
to the upcoming festive season.
HOUSEHOLD SHARE OF WALLET BY SECTORS | Spend % Share, % Growth vs. LY
Q1 22
+0.1%
Q1 23
Abs. growth
24,624,9
Abs. growth
FMCG
1.04M
1.06M
2%
18,6 19,1
Fresh Food
1.38M
1.38 M
0%
Q1 2022
Q1 2023
▲
6,7
sh
Fre
d
Foo
Household Expenditure
Absolute Expenditure Increase
+1.5%
7,3
▲
6,3 6,6
s
CG
ti on
l iti e
FM
Uti
orta
p
s
n
Tra
-1.3%
vs LY
8,6 8,7
▼
5,4 5,0
▲
4,1 4,3
3,8 3,8
3,0 3,0
3,3 3,0
3,5
▼
2,8
▼
2,8 2,7
▼
2,5 2,2
1,9 2,0
1,9 1,9
t
s
e
y
g
e
n
es
i ng
Ou
tion
sin
car
l tur
ood rem on
atio
a
u
oth
g
h
u
l
G
c
c
Sav
o
t
i
n
c
l
i
C
i
u
e
n
H
n/
Ed
Ce
Eat
A gr
abl
Hea
mu
hio
ty/
Dur
Fas
Co m
Par
1,3 1,3
Tax
Source:Kantar, Worldpanel FMCG, Expenditure Survey, Indonesia Urban and Rural, Q1 2023
▼
1,0 0,7
▼
0,6 0,6
▼
0,3 0,2
y
al
nt
vel
obb
Tot
me
Tra
t
H
s
/
e
ers
e nt
Inv
Oth
i nm
a
t
er
En t
5
FMCG Performance
The FMCG shows a resilient growth of 5%, consistent
with last year. A slowing down spend per trip suggests
opting for smaller packs or more affordable products
may be a strategy to maintain overall spending.
FREQUENCY, UNITS BOUGHT &
SPEND PER TRIP
VALUE, VOLUME & PRICE
20
Price per Unit
Value
Volume (Unit)
15
20
Units Bought per Shopping Trip
No of Shopping Trips
Spend per Shopping Trip
Value
6%
5%
Volume (units)
2%
1%
Price per unit
4%
4%
Frequency
-2%
-1%
10
5
0
0
MAT Q1
2023
FMCG IN HOME
10
5
MAT Q1
2022
15
-5
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
2
2
02 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202
2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q1
Q1
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
21 021 021 021 022 022 022 022 023
20
2 12
2 32
2
2 32 42
1
Q
Q2
Q
Q
Q1
Q4
Q2
Q
Q
FMCG IN HOME | INDONESIA URBAN+RURAL | 12 weeks YOY trend
Source: Kantar, Worldpanel FMCG, In Home, Indonesia Urban + Rural
FMCG IN HOME | INDONESIA URBAN+RURAL | MAT YoY
6
Shopper Behavior
Value
Share %
Price increases continue to be the growth driver
across SES, presenting greater challenges for lowerclass consumers who are experiencing a declining
shopping frequency.
Buyer
Share %
Frequency
260
280
Spend per Trip (IDR)
300
320
20000
Volume per Trip (Units)
40000
10
20
Price per Unit (IDR)
2000
4000
NATIONAL HH
EXPENDITURE
-1%
+4%
0.0%
+4%
26
SES A&B
0%
+3%
-0.2%
+3%
40
40
SES C
0%
+3%
-0.2%
+3%
23
33
SES DE
-2%
+5%
0.1%
+5%
100
100
38
MAT Q1 2022
Source: Kantar, Worldpanel FMCG, In Home, Indonesia Urban + Rural
MAT Q1 2023
FMCG IN HOME | INDONESIA
URBAN+RURAL
7
FMCG Segments Behavior
Frequency
100
HOME CARE
PERSONAL CARE
DAIRY
FOOD
BEVERAGES
In F & B segments, spending growth is mainly driven
by price, while home care and personal care manage
to grow volume hence important to formulate the
price-pack strategy to secure shopper recruitment.
Volume per Trip (Unit)
200
300
5
10
Spend per Trip (IDR)
Price per Unit (IDR)
0
0
20.000
40.000
5.000
10.000
-1%
+5%
+4%
0%
-1%
+4%
+6%
+2%
-8%
-2%
+5%
+8%
-2%
0%
+6%
+5%
-3%
0%
+5%
+5%
MAT Q1 2022
Source: Kantar, Worldpanel FMCG, In Home, Indonesia Urban + Rural
MAT Q1 2023
FMCG IN HOME | INDONESIA
URBAN+RURAL
8
Snapshot Channels
Anchoring growth in the proximity channels remains
important. Expanding online presence looks to be a
valuable opportunity as it is the only channel
experiencing consistent growth in gaining more
buyers and increasing frequency.
Shopping
Occassion %
3
Purchase Behavior Across Channel
3
Penetration %
Frequency
200
100
Total Trade
Channel
Other Channels
83
Specialty Store*
TOTAL MT
5
8
2
MAT Q1 22
Minimarket
5
7
2
MAT Q1 23
20
0
50.000
100.000
-1%
0.0%
+4%
HSM
-6%
-3%
+0.7%
+4%
Minimarket
-2%
-3%
+0.3%
+3%
Total
Traditional
Trade
0%
-1%
0.0%
+5%
Specialty Store
0%
-2%
-0.5%
+7%
+17%
+17%
+2.0%
-4%
Online
HSM
10
400
Spend per Trip (IDR)
+0%
83
Traditional Trade
Volume per Trip (Unit)
MAT Q1 2022
MAT Q1 2023
FMCG IN HOME | INDONESIA
URBAN+RURAL
*Specialty Store: Depot Air Isi Ulang, Drug Store, Personal Care, Baby Sector, Cosmetics Store, Milk Store.
*Exclude Delivery Services
9
Emerging Trends:
Festive 2023
at a Glance
How do consumers spend during Ramadan?
This year's Ramadan season is still full of festivity
and celebration, but consumers are showing
increased caution when it comes to spending. Our
latest study via Kantar Panel Home Survey reveals
that consumers are prioritizing to maintain their
cash outlay despite receiving THR but they still
spend more on purchases related to Ramadan, Eid,
and mudik.
By offering the right products and values, brands
can meet the needs of consumers in next year’s
season by preparing the right strategies.
Stay tuned for Kantar’s upcoming publication upon
the full Festive report and you can contact us if
you’d like to learn more about how Kantar Panel
Home Survey can help your brand.
Questions answered via Panel Home Survey for Festive 2023 Survey:
•
•
•
How is the difference in consumers’ wallet between before festive, the festive period,
and post-festive period?
How does the prioritization look like in consumers’ budget for festive season? Is there
any difference between before and after receiving THR?
How THR will affect consumers’ budget allocation during the festive season?
Panel Home Survey is a quick-turnaround survey aimed at gaining insights from main FMCG
shoppers behavior with a short focused questionnaire (4-5 close-ended questions)
Source: Kantar Panel Home Festive Survey 2023, 1,644 respondents in 13 Key Urban Cities
10
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The podcast prevails the
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Episodes are either in Bahasa Indonesia (ID) or in English (EN)
Venu Madhav, our Managing
Director, reflects on the
challenges and highlights of 2022
as well as what lies ahead in
2023. What are the keys to
success for FMCG Brands in 2022?
Tune in to this special episode,
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(EN)
11
Our
Contributors
Venu Madhav
Shafira
Jumantara
Managing Director
Worldpanel Division
Kantar Indonesia
Elena Kusuma Dewi
Account Executive
Worldpanel Division
Kantar Indonesia
Marketing Manager
Worldpanel Division
Kantar Indonesia
Corina Fajriyani
Senior Marketing
Manager
Worldpanel Division
Kantar Indonesia
Hanif Revano
Senior Designer Executive
Worldpanel Division
Kantar Indonesia
12
Terms Glossary
TRADE CHANNEL DEFINITION
IN HOME CONSUMPTION
Specialty Store
Milk Store, Baby Store, Cosmetics Store, Drug Store,
Apothecary, Refill Water Kiosk
The consumption of FMCG products within home of panelist after the
purchase made and being reported in In Home dairy
Online
Internet based marketplace which displays products
virtually via dedicated websites that can be accessed
anytime. No direct face-to-face transaction occurs in
the purchasing process.
Category Tracked
Scope
Household representatives
MEASUREMENT DEFINITION
Penetration
The percentage of households do purchase at least
once in a given period of time
Frequency
The average number of shopping trips made to
purchase the product in a given period of time
Occasion / Trip
The actual number of purchase occasion / shopping
trip in a given period of time
Spend per Trip
The average amount that buyers payed in a single
shopping trip
Volume per Trip
The average volume that buyers purchased in a single
shopping trip
Price per Unit
The average price that buyers payed for a single unit
90+ (Exclude tobacco and fresh food)
Indonesia Urban + Rural
68 Million
OUT OF HOME CONSUMPTION
The consumption of FMCG products outside panelist home and it is
consumed right away after the purchase made at the shop. The panelist
will bring the used pack as proof of consumption and being reported in
out of home dairy.
Category Tracked
List of Categories
22
Ready to Drink (RTD) RTD coffee; isotonic drink;
D tea; energy drink; RTD juice; RTD milk;
carbonated soda drink; mineral water; cultured
milk; soya milk; yoghurt drink; health food drink;
Ready to Eat (RTE) potato snack; extruded snack;
chocolate; ice cream; candy; cold cereal; biscuits;
cup noodle; RTE sausages; chewing gum
Scope
Indonesia Urban
Individual representatives
130+ million from the same Household
13
Kantar is the world’s leading data, insights and consulting company
We understand more about how people think, feel, shop, share, vote and
view than anyone else. Combining our expertise in human understanding
with advanced technologies, Kantar’s 30,000 people help the world’s
leading organizations succeed and grow.
These findings are based on Worldpanel FMCG data. In Indonesia, Kantar
monitors in home and out of home consumption, in the FMCG front, every
single week. We track household purchases of over 90 different FMCG
categories across food and nonfood. Our in-home data represents 68
million of Indonesia Urban and Rural Household population. Our out of
home data represents 130 million of Indonesia Urban population.
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14