Natasha E. Bajema, Ph.D.
Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction
National Defense University
Emergence & Convergence
• Multi-year study on the impact of emerging technologies on the
WMD space
• Threat space – Risks and Opportunities
• Governance space – Impact on existing tools, need for new approaches
• Subject matter expert survey to assess risks and opportunities
• Five technology groups – additive manufacturing, advanced robotics,
nanotechnology, nuclear technology, and synthetic biology
• Launched on 30 June 2016 and remained open until 31 December 2016
• Survey invitation sent to about 3,500 SMEs across DoD, the interagency,
academia, industry, think-tanks, etc.
• 176 SMEs agreed to complete the survey
• We received 120 completed surveys with a response rate of 68%
2
Emergence & Convergence
• What is an emerging technology?
• Emerging technologies are best understood as science-based innovations with
the potential to create a new industry or transform an existing one
• Emerging technologies demonstrate a number features that help to
distinguish them from other technologies, most significantly their
disruptiveness and convergence
• Many emerging technologies are disruptive; they are cheaper, simpler,
smaller and often more convenient to use
• What is convergence?
• Convergence refers to the synergistic integration of new technologies, each of
which is progressing at a rapid rate and interacting with more established
fields.
3
Emerging Technologies
• Additive Manufacturing
• The process of joining materials to make objects from 3D model data, usually
layer upon layer, as opposed to subtractive manufacturing methods
• Additive manufacturing is used to build physical models, prototypes, patterns,
tooling components, and production parts
• Advanced Robotics
• A branch of mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, electronics
engineering and computer science that focuses on the development of
robotics and artificial intelligence
• A robot is a reprogrammable, multifunctional manipulator designed to move
material, parts, tools, or specialized devices through various programmed
functions for the performance of a variety of tasks
4
Emerging Technologies
• Nanotechnology
• Applied science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale, which is
about 1 to 100 nanometers. Nanotechnology refers to a group of technologies which
manipulate and control nanoscale materials to exploit special properties (quantum
effects) and produce new applications
• Nuclear Technology
• New ways to exploit the atom to generate electricity (such as nuclear fusion), new
types of nuclear reactors, or new ways for producing fissile material
• Synthetic Biology
• The convergence of advances in chemistry, biology, computer science, and
engineering that enables us to go from idea to product faster, cheaper, and with
greater precision than ever before
• It can be thought of as a biology-based “toolkit” that uses abstraction,
standardization, and automated construction to change how we build biological
systems and expand the range of possible products
5
Risk Assessment Framework
•
•
•
•
Accessibility
Ease of Misuse
Imminence of Misuse
Magnitude of Potential Harm
• Governability
•
•
•
•
•
Maturity
Rate of Advance
Convergence
Global Diffusion
Tangibility
Risk of Misuse
• Risk of Misuse
High/Low
High/High
Low/Low
Low/High
Governability
6
Decision Framework
2
Technology Assessment
Assess Risk of Misuse using the four parameters
1.
2.
3.
4.
Accessibility
Ease of Misuse
Imminence of Misuse
Magnitude of Potential Harm
1
Y
Is the Risk of
Misuse High
or Medium
Technology Monitoring
Are changes
detected?
N
N
Assess Governability using the five parameters
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Y
Maturity
Rate of Advance
Convergence
Global Diffusion
Tangibility
Is
Governability
High?
Risk of Misuse is Low
N
Is
Governability
Medium?
N
Continue monitoring
emerging technologies
with enabling effects for
WMD to detect changes
or advances which may
require new or
modified governance
measures
Governability is Low
Y
Y
3
Devise Tailored Package of Governance Measures
7
WMD Development Pathways
Additive Manufacturing
Acquisition
Research &
Development
Synthetic Biology
Advanced Robotics
Production
Weaponization
Delivery
Nanotechnology
8
The Respondents
Survey Population
Age Distribution
Gender Distribution
17% 2%
19%
Male
Female
22-29
28%
30-39
40-49
25%
50-59
81%
28%
60+
Education
120 Responses
4%
Bachelors
32%
63%
Masters
JD
1%
PhD/MD
10
Survey Population
Scientific / Technical Discipline
Sector
GOVERNMENT
BIOLOGIST / LIFE SCIENTIST
68
ACADEMIA
ENGINEER
25
INDUSTRY
11
NONPROFIT
8
OTHER
8
JOURNALISM
17
NOT APPLICABLE
16
PHYSICIST
9
COMPUTER / DATA SCIENTIST /…
OTHER
1
0
28
CHEMIST
14
LABORATORY
43
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8
8
0
80
10
20
30
40
50
Emerging Tech Experience
BIOTECHNOLOGY / GENETIC ENGINEERING /
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
42
NOT APPLICABLE
120 Responses
34
ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING
20
NANOTECHNOLOGY
19
NUCLEAR ENERGY
12
ADVANCED ROBOTICS
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
11
Survey Population
TECHNOLOGY EXPERTISE
Additive Manufacturing
EXPERT
VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE
KNOWLEDGEABLE
Advanced Robotics
8
4
10
14
12
8
Nanotechnology
25
UNINFORMED
23
Synthetic Biology
18
18
17
30
INFORMED LAYMAN
Nuclear Energy
120 Responses
28
25
29
30
29
19
26
18
25
36
21
17
12
12
Risk of Misuse & Governability
The Parameters
Risk of Misuse
Risk of Misuse
Accessibility
Ease of Misuse
Imminence
Magnitude
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
High
High
High
High
Governability
Governability
Maturity
Rate of Advance
Convergence
Global Diffusion
Tangibility
Low
Low
High
High
High
Low
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Low
Low
Low
High
14
Risk of Misuse & Governability
Average Score
Color*
1.0 – 1.49
1.5 – 2.49
2.5 – 3.49
3.5 – 4.49
4.5 – 5.49
5.5 – 6.49
6.5 – 7.0
*Colors are flipped for the
tangibility and governability
parameters
**Colors are adjusted slightly
for the maturity parameter
15
Risk of Misuse
Risk of Misuse
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
ADDITIVE
MANUFACTURING
ADVANCED ROBOTICS NANOTECHNOLOGY
Advanced States
Developing States
NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
Non-State Actors
16
Risk of Misuse
Accessibility
Ease of Misuse
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
ADDITIVE
MANUFACTURING
ADVANCED
ROBOTICS
Advanced States
NANOTECHNOLOGY
Developing States
NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
Non-State Actors
ADDITIVE
MANUFACTURING
ADVANCED
ROBOTICS
Advanced States
NANOTECHNOLOGY
Developing States
NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
Non-State Actors
17
Risk of Misuse
Imminence of Misuse
Magnitude of Potential Harm
6.52
4.31
4.26
4.24
4.29
5.93
3.35
4.55
4.41
3.59
ADDITIVE
MANUFACTURING
ADVANCED
ROBOTICS
NANOTECHNOLOGY
NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
ADDITIVE
MANUFACTURING
ADVANCED
ROBOTICS
NANOTECHNOLOGY
NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
18
Advanced vs. Developing States
ADVANCED STATES
Additive Manufacturing
Advanced Robotics
Nuclear Technology
Synthetic Biology
DEVELOPING STATES
Nanotechnology
RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE MAGNITUDE OF IMMINENCE OF
POTENTIAL
MISUSE
HARM
Additive Manufacturing
Advanced Robotics
Nuclear Technology
Synthetic Biology
Nanotechnology
RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE MAGNITUDE OF IMMINENCE OF
POTENTIAL
MISUSE
HARM
19
Developing States vs. Non-state Actors
DEVELOPING STATES
Additive Manufacturing
Advanced Robotics
Nuclear Technology
Synthetic Biology
Nanotechnology
RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE MAGNITUDE OF IMMINENCE OF
POTENTIAL
MISUSE
HARM
NON-STATE ACTORS
Additive Manufacturing
Advanced Robotics
Nuclear Technology
Synthetic Biology
RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY
EASE OF
MISUSE
Nanotechnology
MAGNITUDE OF IMMINENCE OF
POTENTIAL
MISUSE
HARM
20
Governability
Governability is based on five parameters:
• Maturity
• Rate of Advance
• Convergence
• Global Diffusion
• Tangibility
Governability
5.86
4.04
3.88
3.03
ADDITIVE
MANUFACTURING
3.03
ADVANCED
ROBOTICS
NANOTECHNOLOGY
NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
21
Governability
Maturity
6.27
5.27
6.02
5.44
Additive
Manufacturing
Tangibility
Advanced
Robotics
5.44
5.00
Nanotechnology
5.59
4.9
4.29
3.85
Nuclear
Technology
Synthetic Biology
ADDITIVE
MANUFACTURING
ADVANCED
ROBOTICS
NANOTECHNOLOGY
NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
22
Governability
Rate of Advance
Type of Growth
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
5.74
6.04
5.43
ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE
4.92
3.88
ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE
PLATEAUING
DECLINING
ADDITIVE
MANUFACTURING
ADVANCED
ROBOTICS
NANOTECHNOLOGY
NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
23
Governability
Global Diffusion
Convergence
5.3
5.8
5.38
5.13
4.82
5.15
4.55
ADDITIVE
MANUFACTURING
ADVANCED
ROBOTICS
4.17
NANOTECHNOLOGY
3.47
3.7
NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
ADDITIVE
MANUFACTURING
ADVANCED
ROBOTICS
NANOTECHNOLOGY
NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
24
Governability
Governability
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
GOVERNABILITY
MATURITY
Additive Manufacturing
RATE OF ADVANCE
Advanced Robotics
CONVERGENCE
Nanotechnology
GLOBAL DIFFUSION
Synthetic Biology
TANGIBILITY
Nuclear Technology
25
7.0
6.5
D
High Risk of Misuse
Low Governability
High Risk of Misuse
High Governability
C
Risk Assessment Matrix
Advanced States
Developing States
Nonstate Actors
6.0
Additive Manufacturing
Advanced Robotics
Nanotechnology
Nuclear Energy
5.5
Synthetic Biology
Risk of Misuse
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
A
1.0
1.5
Low Risk of Misuse
Low Governability
2.0
2.5
3.0
Low Risk of Misuse
High Governability
3.5
4.0
4.5
Governability
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
B
7.0
26
Additive Manufacturing (AM)
Opportunities - AM
Detection
• Rapid prototyping and fabrication of
sample collection and sensor
components and new detection
technology
• Manufacturing of portable, clip-on
sensors
Countermeasures
• Local and on-demand manufacturing
with a small footprint for needed
military parts
• Using printed cell and organ systems
for drug testing and medical
countermeasures (bioprinting)
• More efficient and cost-effective
production of low-volume defense
systems
28
Heat Map - AM
Additive Manufacturing
EXPERT
8
VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE
KNOWLEDGEABLE
INFORMED LAYMAN
UNINFORMED
14
30
25
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
29
Risk of Misuse - AM
Additive Manufacturing - Specific Technologies
Additive Manufacturing – By Actor Type
3.74
4.52
2.84
4.03
4.31
3.51
5.03
3.36
3.74
3.59
4.33
4.03
4.31
3.59
6.65
4.40
5.68
4.31
3.59
ACCESSIBILITY
Advanced States
EASE OF MISUSE IMMINENCE OF MAGNITUDE OF
MISUSE
POTENTIAL HARM
Developing States
Non-State Actors
3.62
3.46
3.70
4.28
3.86
4.00
3.88
3.76
4.00
4.13
3.05
3.36
BIOPRINTING
RISK OF MISUSE
3.80
3.91
4.41
3.69
3.90
4.27
CARBON FIBER
PRINTING
5.20
4.70
MATERIAL
EXTRUSION
MATERIAL
JETTING
MICROREACTOR POWDER BED
PRINTING
FUSION
Accessibility
Ease of Misuse
Magnitude of Potential Harm
Imminence of Misuse
30
Governability - AM
Additive Manufacturing
Type of Growth
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
6.27
5.74
5.30
33
5.80
5.27
ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE
53
ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE
10
3.03
GOVERNABILITY
MATURITY
RATE OF
ADVANCE
CONVERGENCE
GLOBAL
DIFFUSION
PLATEAUING
4
DECLINING
0
TANGIBILITY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
31
Ranked for Risk of Misuse - AM
1
43%
8%
4%
3
4
5
11% 7%
14%
22%
15%
29%
2
3
25%
9%
16%
2
3
13%
5
5
6
11%
2
3
4
21%
31%
5
6
Powder Bed Fusion
1
2
29%
27%
12%
15%
6
9% 11%
4
1
10% 11%
4
Carbon Fiber
1
11% 9%
19%
22%
6
Material Jetting
1
9%
2
27%
Material Extrusion
Microreactor
Bioprinting
3
1
9%
13%
34%
4
5
6
15%
19%
10%
2
3
4
5
6
32
WMD Pathways - AM
State Actors
Non-state Actors
Research and Development
Research and Development
4.04
Print novel chemical compounds
3.66
Develop new techniques for enriching uranium
1.92
Use 3D printers to create novel pathogens/microbes
3.04
Use 3D printers to create novel pathogens/microbes
2.26
Print novel chemical compounds
1.83
Develop new techniques for enriching uranium
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
Acquisition and Production
0.00
5.29
4.57
Print non-nuclear components of a nuclear weapon
Print components for enriching uranium
4.57
Use 3D printers to create known pathogens/microbes
0.00
3.00
2.50
4.00
2.69
2.26
2.17
1.82
Print fissile components of a nuclear weapon
3.34
2.00
2.00
2.91
Print components for enriching uranium
3.49
1.00
1.50
Print known chemical compounds
Print known chemical compounds
Print fissile components of a nuclear weapon
1.00
Acquisition and Production
Print non-nuclear components of a nuclear weapon
Use 3D printers to create known pathogens/microbes
0.50
5.00
6.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
33
WMD Pathways - AM
State Actors
Non-state Actors
Weaponization and Delivery
Weaponization and Delivery
Print and assemble drones capable of delivering a
biological or chemical weapons
5.34
5.14
Test and evaluate new weapons designs
4.94
Print high explosives
Develop delivery systems for biological and chemical
weapons
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Print high explosives
3.56
Develop delivery systems for biological and chemical
weapons
3.54
3.36
3.16
Test and evaluate new weapons designs
Test and evaluate weapon designs for biological and
chemical weapons
4.33
1.00
4.28
Print missile components
4.50
Test and evaluate weapon designs for biological and
chemical weapons
0.00
Print and assemble drones capable of delivering a
biological or chemical weapons
5.84
Print missile components
6.00
7.00
0.00
2.94
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
34
Other Enabling Effects - AM
Respondents suggested that we missed several enabling effects of
additive manufacturing for development or use of WMD
Weaponization and Delivery:
• Printing cell or organ systems to test toxicity, pathogenicity, and
“effectiveness” of biological and chemical weapons
• Multi-material printing (especially electronics and electromagnetic
devices) may facilitate the development of WMD delivery systems
• Aerosolization technologies for the delivery of stabilized
pathogens/microbes
35
Advanced Robotics (AR)
Opportunities - AR
Detection
• Equip drones or other robotics with
detectors to sense CBRN
• Enhanced surveillance of state and
non-state actor activities
• Swarms of CBRN detectors to enable
persistent surveillance
Response
• Use robotics to investigate a scene for
CBRN contamination
• Rapid delivery of countermeasures
(e.g., treatment after a biological
attack)
• Use robotics for decontamination
after a CBRN attack
37
Heat Map - AR
Advanced Robotics
EXPERT
4
VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE
KNOWLEDGEABLE
INFORMED LAYMAN
UNINFORMED
12
25
30
29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
38
Risk of Misuse - AR
Advanced Robotics – By Actor Type
3.27
3.27
2.93
4.26
Advanced Robotics – Specific Technologies
4.23
3.96
3.85
3.20
5.91
4.41
3.12
4.26
4.41
5.18
5.32
5.13
RISK OF MISUSE
5.36
ACCESSIBILITY
EASE OF MISUSE
Advanced States
Developing States
4.26
IMMINENCE OF
MISUSE
Non-State Actors
4.41
MAGNITUDE OF
POTENTIAL HARM
6.28
4.36
3.96
4.41
4.72
6.32
5.47
3.91
3.93
3.04
AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
STRONG AI
6.32
UNMANNED AERIAL
VEHICLES
Accessibility
Ease of Misuse
Magnitude of Potential Harm
Imminence of Misuse
4.92
WEAK AI
39
Governability - AR
Advanced Robotics
5.44
5.43
Type of Growth
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
5.38
4.55
29
4.90
ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE
4.04
52
ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE
GOVERNABILITY
MATURITY
RATE OF
ADVANCE
CONVERGENCE
GLOBAL
DIFFUSION
TANGIBILITY
15
PLATEAUING
2
DECLINING
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
40
Ranked for Risk of Misuse - AR
UAVs
7%
8%
7%
Autonomous Systems
1
2
22%
4% 11%
1
2
3
78%
3
4
63%
Weak AI
4% 9%
40%
Strong AI
8%
1
2
3
47%
4
4
19%
49%
1
2
3
24%
4
41
WMD Pathways - AR
State Actors
Non-state Actors
Weaponization and Delivery
Weaponization and Delivery
6.75
Develop drones capable of delivering explosives
6.59
Develop drones capable of conducting ISR
Develop drones capable of targeting individuals for
harm/injury
6.39
Develop drones capable of disseminating biological,
chemical or radioactive material
6.23
6.05
Develop autonomous robots capable of weapon delivery
Develop drones capable of swarming
5.71
5.00 5.20 5.40 5.60 5.80 6.00 6.20 6.40 6.60 6.80 7.00
5.79
Develop drones capable of delivering explosives
5.29
Develop drones capable of conducting ISR
Develop drones capable of disseminating biological,
chemical or radioactive material
5.17
Develop drones capable of targeting individuals for
harm/injury
5.14
4.47
Develop autonomous robots capable of weapon delivery
3.63
Develop drones capable of swarming
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
42
Other Enabling Effects - AR
Respondents suggested that we missed several enabling effects of
advanced robotics for development or use of WMD
Weaponization and Delivery:
• Use of unmanned ground vehicles for delivery of explosives and/or
WMD
• UAVs as a potential weapon against aircraft
• Use of simulation/modeling to determine WMD effects for purposes
of targeting
• Delivery of biological agents against agriculture (plants and animals)
43
Nanotechnology (Nano)
Opportunities - Nano
Detection
Countermeasures
• Sensors for environmental
detection
• Catalytic nanomaterials for
degrading chemical agents,
possibly for incorporation into
PPE
• Nanotechnology-based tags
applied to dual-use
components to enhance export
control efforts and IAEA
safeguards
• Increased stability of medical
countermeasures (longer
storage at ambient
temperatures)
Response
• New materials for
decontamination
• Improved delivery and targeting
of medical countermeasures
• Possible distribution of medical
counter measures through
water supply
45
Heat Map - Nano
Nanotechnology
EXPERT
10
VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE
KNOWLEDGEABLE
INFORMED LAYMAN
UNINFORMED
18
29
26
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
46
Risk of Misuse - Nano
Nanotechnology - By Actor Type
Nanotechnology – Specific Technologies
6.52
3.17
3.27
3.70
4.19
3.60
2.85
2.65
2.69
3.61
3.00
3.35
6.52
4.29
3.65
3.69
3.53
4.73
4.13
3.89
3.28
3.42
4.95
2.48
4.79
4.21
4.03
3.30
3.92
2.91
2.46
3.65
3.17
3.35
6.16
4.87
RISK OF MISUSE
ACCESSIBILITY
Advanced States
5.03
6.52
3.35
EASE OF MISUSE IMMINENCE OF MAGNITUDE OF
MISUSE
POTENTIAL HARM
Accessibility
Ease of Misuse
Developing States
Magnitude of Potential Harm
Imminence of Misuse
Non-State Actors
47
Governability - Nano
Nanotechnology
Type of Growth
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
5.00
4.92
4.82
4.17
3.88
4.29
12
ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE
46
ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE
GOVERNABILITY
MATURITY
RATE OF
ADVANCE
CONVERGENCE
GLOBAL
DIFFUSION
TANGIBILITY
33
PLATEAUING
3
DECLINING
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
48
Ranked for Risk of Misuse - Nano
Nanoelectronics
Nanomedicine
1
18%
28%
2
21%
1
3%6%
21%
3
8%
9%
26%
5
18%
4%
22%
2
23%
16%
5%
35%
6
27%
22%
17%
22%
1
2
4
5
6
Carbon Nanotubes
1
8%
14%
5
22%
3
6
11%
4
7%
5
30%
1
10%
3
Nanomachines
3
17%
19%
6
Nanoenergetics
2
4
4
11%
Nanoencapsulation
2
32%
3
6
2
16%
4
5
1
17%
15%
11%
9%
3
4
5
6
49
WMD Pathways - Nano
State Actors
Non-state Actors
Research and Development
Research and Development
Develop nanoscale chemical particles to induce genetic
damage or cause physiological effects
Develop nanoscale chemical particles to induce genetic
damage or cause physiological effects
4.26
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Acquisition and Production
5.99
Stabilize harmful pathogens/microbes or chemicals using
nanoencapsulation
4.92
1.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Acquisition and Production
Develop stronger and lighter weight nanomaterials
0.00
2.24
4.00
5.00
6.00
Stabilize harmful pathogens/microbes or chemicals using
nanoencapsulation
Develop stronger and lighter weight nanomaterials
7.00
2.25
2.38
2.30
2.30
2.35
2.40
50
WMD Pathways - Nano
State Actors
Non-state Actors
Weaponization and Delivery
Weaponization and Delivery
Develop stronger and lighter weight nanomaterials
5.99
Develop nanoenergetics for use in explosive devices
Develop nanoparticles as a method for delivering drugs
and medical treatment
5.98
Stabilize harmful pathogens/microbes or chemicals using
nanoencapsulation
5.30
Develop nanoenergetics for use in explosive devices
Stabilize harmful pathogens/microbes or chemicals using
nanoencapsulation
4.92
Develop nanoparticles as a delivery system for harmful
pathogens and microbes
0.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
2.38
Develop stronger and lighter weight nanomaterials
2.30
Develop nanoparticles as a delivery system for harmful
pathogens and microbes
2.27
Develop nanoparticles as a method for delivering drugs
and medical treatment
4.31
1.00
2.75
6.00
7.00
0.00
2.23
1.00
2.00
3.00
51
Nuclear Technology (NT)
Heat Map - NT
Nuclear Technology
EXPERT
8
VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE
KNOWLEDGEABLE
INFORMED LAYMAN
UNINFORMED
17
19
36
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
53
Risk of Misuse - NT
Nuclear Technology – By State Actor
Nuclear Technology – Specific Technologies
3.56
3.32
3.27
2.49
3.33
3.90
2.75
3.45
4.24
4.55
6.02
4.24
2.58
5.20
5.10
4.55
4.07
3.64
2.63
5.83
5.25
RISK OF MISUSE
ACCESSIBILITY
Advanced States
5.07
4.24
4.55
EASE OF MISUSE IMMINENCE OF MAGNITUDE OF
MISUSE
POTENTIAL HARM
Developing States
Non-State Actors
3.12
3.32
LASER ENRICHMENT
TECHNOLOGY
NEXT GENERATION NUCLEAR
REACTORS
2.06
Accessibility
Ease of Misuse
Magnitude of Potential Harm
Imminence of Misuse
FUSION
54
Governability - NT
Nuclear Technology
Type of Growth
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
5.86
6.02
5.59
3.88
3.47
3.70
0
ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE
6
ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE
64
PLATEAUING
18
DECLINING
GOVERNABILITY
MATURITY
RATE OF
ADVANCE
CONVERGENCE
GLOBAL
DIFFUSION
TANGIBILITY
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
55
Ranked for Risk of Misuse - NT
Laser Enrichment
20%
1
54%
26%
Nuclear Fusion
Next Generation
Reactors
14%
2
17%
29%
2
3
57%
1
1
3
18%
65%
2
3
56
Synthetic Biology (SynBio)
Opportunities - SynBio
Detection
• Enhanced environmental sensing
capabilities and surveillance
• New detection capabilities
• Rapid threat analysis and enhanced
diagnostics
Countermeasures
• Development of vaccines, antibacterials, and therapeutics
• Faster, cheaper production of existing
vaccines and anti-bacterials
• Targeted drugs and treatment through
precision medicine
58
Heat Map - SynBio
Synthetic Biology
EXPERT
18
VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE
KNOWLEDGEABLE
INFORMED LAYMAN
UNINFORMED
28
25
17
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
59
Risk of Misuse - SynBio
Synthetic Biology – By Actor Type
Synthetic Biology – Specific Technologies
5.93
3.77
4.21
3.77
3.95
4.67
3.91
4.29
2.84
4.43
4.02
3.51
5.55
5.49
5.93
4.14
3.91
4.29
4.28
4.25
4.74
3.98
3.05
6.35
5.33
5.56
4.29
5.93
3.36
BIOPRINTING
RISK OF MISUSE
ACCESSIBILITY
Advanced States
5.41
5.28
BIOINFORMATICS
CRISPR/GENE
EDITING
3.14
4.09
3.55
GENE DRIVES
PRECISION
MEDICINE
EASE OF MISUSE IMMINENCE OF MAGNITUDE OF
MISUSE
POTENTIAL HARM
Accessibility
Ease of Misuse
Developing States
Magnitude of Potential Harm
Imminence of Misuse
Non-State Actors
2.71
60
Governability - SynBio
Synthetic Biology
Synthetic Biology
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
62
6.04
5.44
5.13
ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE
5.15
3.85
16
ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE
10
3.03
GOVERNABILITY
MATURITY
RATE OF
ADVANCE
CONVERGENCE
GLOBAL
DIFFUSION
TANGIBILITY
PLATEAUING
1
DECLINING
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
61
Ranked for Risk of Misuse - SynBio
CRISPR/Gene Editing
13%
6%
Gene Drives
1
48%
33%
31%
28%
35%
3
4
Precision Medicine
12%
1
2
22%
1
2
3
4
23%
17%
2
Bioinformatics
24%
20%
3
4
50%
1
18%
2
3
20%
4
62
WMD Pathways - SynBio
State Actors
Non-state Actors
Research and Development
Research and Development
Make an existing pathogen/microbe more infectious
and/or lethal
5.13
Make an existing pathogen/microbe more infectious
and/or lethal
Modify existing pathogens/microbes to be capable of
rapid growth in the laboratory
5.11
Increase the transmissibility of an existing
pathogen/microbe
2.95
Increase the transmissibility of an existing
pathogen/microbe
5.11
Enhance existing pathogens/microbes to be resistant to
treatment, vaccines and countermeasures
2.93
Enhance existing pathogens/microbes to be resistant to
treatment, vaccines and countermeasures
5.04
Enhance the environmental stability of existing
pathogens/microbes
2.85
Modify existing pathogens/microbes to be capable of
rapid growth in the laboratory
2.81
Enhance the environmental stability of existing
pathogens/microbes
4.85
Enhance capacity of existing pathogens for evading
detection
4.29
Create novel pathogens/microbes to target population
groups
3.95
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
2.58
Enhance capacity of existing pathogens for evading
detection
4.37
Create novel pathogens/microbes to contaminate food
or water
2.65
Create novel pathogens/microbes to contaminate food or
water
4.51
Create novel pathogens/microbes to harm materiel or
commodities
0.00
Create novel pathogens/microbes to harm individuals,
agriculture or livestock
4.69
Create novel pathogens/microbes to harm individuals,
agriculture or livestock
3.16
6.00
2.52
Create novel pathogens/microbes to harm materiel or
commodities
2.41
Create novel pathogens/microbes to target population
groups
2.40
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
63
WMD Pathways - SynBio
State Actors
Non-state Actors
Acquisition and Production
Acquisition and Production
5.35
Synthesize existing pathogens/microbes
5.13
Make an existing pathogen/microbe more infectious…
3.16
Make an existing pathogen/microbe more infectious…
3.15
Synthesize existing pathogens/microbes
Modify existing pathogens/microbes to be capable of…
5.11
Increase the transmissibility of an existing…
2.95
Increase the transmissibility of an existing…
5.11
Enhance existing pathogens/microbes to be resistant…
2.93
5.04
Enhance existing pathogens/microbes to be resistant…
5.00
Recreate past/eradicated pathogens/microbes
4.85
Enhance the environmental stability of existing…
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
3.00
2.73
2.52
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Enable more effective weaponization of existing
pathogens/microbes
5.06
2.00
2.81
4.00
Weaponization and Delivery
Enable more effective weaponization of existing
pathogens/microbes
1.00
Modify existing pathogens/microbes to be capable of…
Enhance capacity of existing pathogens for evading…
Weaponization and Delivery
0.00
2.85
Recreate past/eradicated pathogens/microbes
4.69
Enhance capacity of existing pathogens for evading…
Enhance the environmental stability of existing…
4.00
5.00
6.00
3.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
64
Other Enabling Effects - SynBio
Respondents suggested that we missed several enabling effects of synthetic
biology for development or use of WMD
Research and Development:
• Development of molecular threat agents (nonliving, non-viral)
• Modify existing pathogens/microbes to change the host range (and/or to
target selected subpopulations)
Acquisition and Production:
• Use of synthetic biology to enable industrial-scale toxin production
65
Final Conclusions
Risk versus Opportunity
• Emerging technologies are primarily viewed through the “risk lens” within
the context of national security.
• Due to the absence of metrics for evaluating “opportunity”
• Sensitivity of efforts to enhance detection, countermeasures and response plans may
be a factor
• The emerging technologies in this survey are expected to enhance detection,
countermeasures, and response; prevention is neglected by the technologies
examined in this survey, but there is definitely promise elsewhere:
• AI & machine learning
• Blockchain
• We are trained to think in terms of prevention for countering WMD (left of boom,
left of loss, etc.)
• Should we put more emphasis on detection, countermeasures and
response in the future?
67
State versus Non-State Actors
• State actors were consistently assessed higher scores than non-state actors
• One negligible exception: Non-state actors (3.95) were assessed a slightly higher risk
of misuse for synthetic biology than developing nation states (3.91)
• The data results in the survey do not support current hype about non-state actors
leveraging CRISPR to develop biological weapons
• Non-state actors were consistently assessed low scores across all
technology groups
• An important exception was the development of drones for use in terrorist
operations and attacks
• Non-state actors are most likely to use advanced robotics and additive
manufacturing to support the weaponization and delivery stage of their
operations, but not necessarily for the delivery of WMD
• Non-state actors are least likely to use nanotechnology
68
Direct versus Indirect Effects
• Emerging technologies vary in their impact on WMD development
pathways
• In the near-term, additive manufacturing and nanotechnology appear to have
indirect effects at all stages of WMD development
• In contrast, synthetic biology and advanced robotics appear to have more direct and
focused effects
• Synthetic biology appears to have greatest impact on research and development and R&D
related efforts during the acquisition and production stage
• Advanced robotics has impact on weaponization and delivery due to the high accessibility
and ease of misuse of UAVs
• For technologies with direct effects, it will be easier to justify control
measures to mitigate risks
• Given their broad applicability and indirect impact on WMD, the risks of additive
manufacturing and nanotechnology will be harder to control given a high
opportunity cost
69
Old versus New Technologies
• Nuclear technology scores provided an interesting contrast to the
emerging technologies in this study, confirming many of their key
characteristics
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Accessibility to a broader set of actors
Utility in a broader set of end-use applications
Ease of use and affordability
Digital character
Rapid advancement
High convergence with other emerging technologies
Global diffusion
• Synthetic biology and nanotechnology were assessed similar scores
(somewhat higher) for magnitude of potential harm than nuclear
technology
70
Old versus New Technologies
Governability
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
GOVERNABILITY
MATURITY
Additive Manufacturing
RATE OF ADVANCE
Advanced Robotics
CONVERGENCE
Nanotechnology
GLOBAL DIFFUSION
Synthetic Biology
TANGIBILITY
Nuclear Technology
71
General versus Specific Technologies
• Assessed scores for the technology groups as a whole were higher
than the scores for specific technologies
• Potential factor: scores for technology groups were assessed separately for
advanced states, developing states and non-state actors
• Another factor: Much of the potential of emerging technologies remains
untapped. SMEs may have accounted for this when assessing the technology
group as a whole
72
General versus Specific Technologies
Risk of Misuse
Accessibility
Ease of Misuse
Magnitude of Potential Harm
Imminence of Misuse
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
73
Other Emerging Technologies
Respondents suggested the following technologies (not covered in the
survey) as having enabling effects for WMD:
• Advanced Computing/Quantum
computing
• Big Data
• Dark Web for sharing/exchange of
information
• Cyberwarfare
• Electromagnetic warfare/EMP
•
•
•
•
•
•
High Power Microwave
Lasers
Geoengineering
Cloaking
Fermentation
Aerosolization
74