Report Number: R/1
A
REPORT
ON
STATE OF
ELECTRIC VEHICLE ADOPTION
AND
FUTURE TRAJECTORIES
SUBMITTED BY: SUJAL LAMICHHANE
ENGINEER
MAESTRO TRANSPORTS
DHULIKHEL, KATHMANDU
JUNE 26 2022
Report Number: R/1
A
REPORT
ON
STATE OF
ELECTRIC VEHICLE ADOPTION
AND
FUTURE TRAJECTORIES
SUBMITTED TO: GENERAL MANAGER
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT
SUBMITTED BY: SUJAL LAMICHHANE
ENGINEER
APPROVED BY: RAMESH KARKI
CHAIRMAN
MAESTRO TRANSPORTS
DHULIKHEL, KATHMANDU
JUNE 26 2022
PREFACE
As the world slowly but steadily edges towards adoption of alternative sources of energy, more
and more of the currently utilized appliances dependent on non-renewable sources of fuel start
to become redundant. The complete shift to cleaner energy will certainly take time and as we
inch ever so closer to this inevitable future, it is a given that mankind will have to adapt and
compromise. In this process billions of people around the world are sure to experience
unprecedented changes in their lifestyle. One such market which will be heavily affected is the
automotive industry. With electric vehicles being the logical next step to the evolution of
transportation, this report aims to highlight the current state of electric vehicle manufacturing
and adoption while also providing some insight into the future trajectories this industry might
take.
The material in this report serves to provide insight into the various problems that lie in wait for
manufacturers when EVs go into mass production. Although the technology to make electric
motors more efficient has come a long way, most of the current production EVs have been
largely disappointing, coming short in many aspects compared to their fossil fuel powered
counterparts. As a result, EVs have almost never been the first choice for the regular driver.
This report lists out some of the things manufacturers ought to get right before EVs become
mainstream while also presenting some theoretical frameworks that might help to bridge the
gap between EVs and fuel powered vehicles.
With this report I’ve tried my utmost to explain each and every significant aspect to the best of
my abilities. This report covers a topic that is sure to have a significant impact on people’s lives
in the near future, as such I hope the readers of this report share my sense of enthusiasm for
this topic. This study wouldn’t have been possible without the cooperation and guidance of my
colleagues for which I am forever thankful. I also thank everybody who shared their insight into
the topic and helped me forge this report be it through honest feedback or through their
cooperation. Hopefully, this helps the readers understand the state of the industry and what
the future holds.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I am earnestly grateful to all who have helped me put these ideas, well above the level of
simplicity and into something concrete.
I would like to express special thanks to my English teacher as well as our principal who gave
me the opportunity to put together this insightful report on a topic I feel very strongly about. As
a result, it genuinely motivated me to carry out the research with everything I had, thanks to
which I came to know a whole lot more about the topic at hand. Words cannot express how
much I appreciate this.
My attempt couldn’t have been satisfactorily completed without the support and guidance of
my parents and friends. As such, I would like to thank my parents and colleagues who helped
me a lot in gathering different information, collecting data and guiding me from time to time
while gathering ideas in the making of this project, despite their busy schedules, they gave me
different ideas which ultimately helped me handle the scope of this project and make it unique
and interesting.
With warm regards,
Mr. Namaraj Ghimire (Manag Director of Department of Transport Management)
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE ........................................................................................................................................................ 1
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................. 2
ABSTRACT...................................................................................................................................................... 4
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 6
DISCUSSION................................................................................................................................................... 9
1. Current State of Electric Vehicles ................................................................................................9
1.1. EV adoption .................................................................................................................................... 9
1.2. Batteries and other EV technologies ............................................................................................. 9
1.3. Charging infrastructure ................................................................................................................ 10
1.4. Power system integration ............................................................................................................ 10
1.5. Life-cycle cost and emissions ....................................................................................................... 11
1.6. Synergies with other technologies and future expectations ....................................................... 11
2. Growth of Electric Vehicles and Future Predictions .................................................................... 12
2.1. Electric Vehicles and Growth ....................................................................................................... 12
2.2. The Three Pillars: Cost, Capacity and Charging time ................................................................... 14
2.3. Future of Electric Vehicles............................................................................................................ 15
3. Electric Vehicles and the environment....................................................................................... 16
3.1. Effects of Electric car production on the Environment ................................................................ 17
3.2 Environmental Impact: EVs vs ICE vehicles ................................................................................... 17
CONCLUSION............................................................................................................................................... 21
RECOMMENDATION ................................................................................................................................... 22
BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................................................ 24
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................ 25
GLOSSARY.................................................................................................................................................... 26
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ABSTRACT
This report covers topics that come forth as a result of research on the current state of the
Electric Vehicles (EVs) market and their future projected growth. Electric Vehicles are gaining
momentum due to several factors, including the price reduction as well as the climate and
environmental awareness. This paper reviews and goes over the advances of EVs regarding
battery technology trends, charging methods, as well as new research challenges and open
opportunities. More specifically, an analysis of the worldwide market situation of EVs and their
future prospects is carried out. Given that one of the fundamental aspects in EVs is the battery,
the paper presents a review of the battery technologies—from the Lead-acid batteries to the
Lithium-ion. Moreover, we explore the different factors that make manufacturing of EVs
difficult, as well as the power control and battery energy management proposals.
Electric vehicles have acquired a small portion of the automotive market over the past few
years as the technology has matured and costs have declined, and support for clean
transportation has promoted awareness, increased charging opportunities, and facilitated EV
adoption. Suitably, a vast body of literature has been produced exploring various facets of EVs
and their role in transportation and energy systems. This paper provides a timely and
comprehensive summaries of scientific studies looking at various aspects of EVs, including: an
overview of the status of the light-duty-EV market and current projections for future adoption,
insights on market opportunities beyond light-duty EVs, a review of cost and performance
evolution for batteries, power electronics, and electric machines that are key components of EV
success, charging-infrastructure status with a focus on modeling and studies that are used to
project charging-infrastructure requirements and the economics of public charging, an
overview of the impact of EV charging on power systems at multiple scales, ranging from bulk
power systems to distribution networks, insights into life-cycle cost and emissions studies
focusing on EVs and future expectations and synergies between EVs and other emerging trends
and technologies.
The goal of this paper is to provide readers with a snapshot of the current state of the art and
help navigate this vast literature by comparing studies critically and comprehensively and
synthesizing general insights. This detailed report paints a positive picture for the future of EVs
for on-road transportation, and the authors remain hopeful that remaining technology,
regulatory, societal, behavioral, and business-model barriers can be addressed over time to
support a transition toward cleaner, more efficient, and affordable transportation solutions for
all. Electric vehicles are clearly the way forward and have tons of environmental, cost,
mechanical benefits to boot. The rise of the electric age comes with the usual worries like
dependence on mines for materials used in components, large potential for e-waste etc. But
the pros far outweigh the cons and even so with proper management and sufficient
4
investments the cons can be completely negated globally the methodology for which is
presented later in the report.
Finally, we conclude our work by presenting our vision about what is expected in the near
future within this field, as well as the research aspects that are still open for both industry and
academic communities.
PROJECT TITLE: STATE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE ADOPTION AND FUTURE TRAJECTORIES
5
INTRODUCTION
First introduced at the end of the 1800s, electric vehicles (EVs) have been experiencing a rise in
popularity over the past few years as the technology has matured and costs (especially of
batteries) have declined substantially. Worldwide support for clean transportation options (i.e.
low emissions of greenhouse gasses [GHG] to mitigate climate change and criteria pollutants)
has promoted awareness, increased charging opportunities, and facilitated adoption of EVs. EVs
present numerous advantages compared to fossil-fueled internal-combustion-engine vehicles
(ICEVs), inter alia: zero tailpipe emissions, no reliance on petroleum, improved fuel economy,
lower maintenance, and improved driving experience (e.g. acceleration, noise reduction, and
convenient home and opportunity recharging). Further, when charged with clean electricity,
EVs provide a viable pathway to reduce overall GHG emissions and decarbonize on-road
transportation. This decarbonization potential is important, given limited alternative options to
liquid fossil fuels. The ability of EVs to reduce GHG emissions is dependent, however, upon
clean electricity. Therefore, EV success is intertwined closely with the prospect of abundant and
affordable renewable electricity (in particular solar and wind electricity) that is poised to
transform power systems. Coordinated actions can produce beneficial synergies between EVs
and power systems and support renewable-energy integration to optimize energy systems of
the future to benefit users and offer decarbonization across sectors. A cross-sectoral approach
across the entire energy system is required to realize clean future transformation pathways.
EVs are expected to play a critical role in the power system of the future.
EV success is increasing rapidly since the mid-2010s. EV sales are breaking previous records
every year, especially for light-duty vehicles (LDVs), buses, and smaller vehicles such as threewheelers, mopeds, kick-scooters, and e-bikes. To date, global automakers are committing more
than $140 billion to transportation electrification, and 50 light-duty EV models are available
commercially in the U.S. market. Approximately 130 EV models are anticipated by 2023. Future
projections of the role of EVs in LDV markets vary widely, with estimates ranging from limited
success (∼10% of sales in 2050) to full market dominance, with EVs accounting for 100% of LDV
sales well before 2050. Many studies project that EVs will become economically competitive
with ICEVs in the near future or that they are already cost-competitive for some applications.
However, widespread adoption requires more than economic competitiveness, especially for
personally owned vehicles. Behavioral and non-financial preferences of individuals on different
technologies and mobility options are also important. EV adoption beyond LDVs has been
focused on buses, with significant adoption in several regions (especially China). Electric trucks
also are receiving great attention, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects that by 2025,
alternative fuels will compete with, or outcompete, diesel in long-haul trucking applications.
These recent successes are being driven by technological progress, especially in batteries and
6
power electronics, greater availability of charging infrastructure, policy support driven by
environmental benefits, and consumer acceptance. EV adoption is engendering a virtuous circle
of technology improvements and cost reductions that is enabled and constrained by positive
feedbacks arising from scale and learning by doing, research and development, charginginfrastructure coverage and utilization, and consumer experience and familiarity with EVs.
Vehicle electrification is a game-changer for the transportation sector due to major energy and
environmental implications driven by high vehicle efficiency (EVs are approximately 3–4 times
more efficient than comparable ICEVs), zero tailpipe emissions, and reduced petroleum
dependency (great fuel diversity and flexibility exist in electricity production). Far-reaching
implications for vehicle-grid integration extend to the electricity sector and to the broader
energy system. A revealing example of the role of EVs in broader energy-transformation
scenarios is provided by Muratori and Mai, who summarize results from 159 scenarios
underpinning the special report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR1.5) by Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Muratori and Mai also show that transportation represents
only ∼2% of global electricity demand currently (with rail responsible for more than two-thirds
of this total). They show that electricity is projected to provide 18% of all transportation-energy
needs by 2050 for the median IPCC scenario, which would account for 10% of total electricity
demand. Most of this electricity use is targeted toward on-road vehicle electrification. These
projections are the result of modeling and simulations that are struggling to keep pace with the
EV revolution and its role in energy-transformation scenarios as EV technologies and mobility
are evolving rapidly. Recent studies explore higher transportation-electrification scenarios: for
example, Mai et al report a scenario in which 75% of on-road miles are powered by electricity,
and transportation represents almost a quarter of total electricity use during 2050.
Vehicle electrification is a disruptive element in energy-system evolution that radically changes
the roles of different sectors, technologies, and fuels in long-term transformation scenarios.
Traditionally, energy-system-transformation studies project minimal end-use changes in
transportation-energy use over time (limited mode shifting and adoption of alternative fuels),
and the sector is portrayed as a 'roadblock' to decarbonization. In many decarbonization
scenarios, transportation is seen traditionally as one of the biggest hurdles to achieve emissions
reductions. These scenarios rely on greater changes in the energy supply to reduce emissions
and petroleum dependency (e.g. large-scale use of bioenergy, often coupled to carbon capture
and sequestration) rather than demand-side transformations. In most of these studies,
electrification is limited to some transportation modes (e.g. light-duty), and EVs are not
expected to replace ICEVs fully. More recently, however, major mobility disruptions (e.g. use of
ride-hailing and vehicle ride-sharing) and massive EV adoption across multiple applications are
proposed. These mobility disruptions allow for more radical changes and increase the
decarbonization role of transportation and highlight the integration opportunities between
transportation and energy supply, especially within the electricity sector. For example, Zhang
and Fujimori (2020) highlight that for vehicle electrification to contribute to climate-change
mitigation, electricity generation needs to transition to clean sources. They note that EVs can
7
reduce mitigation costs, implying a positive impact of transport policies on the economic
system. In-line with these projections, many countries are establishing increasingly stringent
and ambitious targets to support transport electrification and, in some cases, ban conventional
fossil fuel vehicles.
EV charging undoubtedly will impact the electricity sector in terms of overall energy use,
demand profiles, and synergies with electricity supply. Mai et al show that in a highelectrification scenario, transportation might grow from the current 0.2% to 23% of total U.S.
electricity demand in 2050 and significantly impact system peak load and related capacity costs
if not controlled properly. Widespread vehicle electrification will impact the electricity system
across the board, including generation, transmission, and distribution. However, expected
changes in U.S. electricity demand as a result of vehicle electrification are not greater than
historical growth in load and peak demand. This finding suggests that bulk-generation capacity
is expected to be available to support a growing EV fleet as it evolves over time, even with high
EV-market growth. At the same time, many studies have shown that 'smart charging' and
vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services create opportunities to reduce system costs and facilitate the
integration of variable renewable energy (VRE). Charging infrastructure that enables smart
charging and alignment with VRE generation, as well as business models and programs to
compensate EV owners for providing charging flexibility, are the most pressing required
elements for successfully integrating EVs with bulk power systems. At the local level, EV
charging could increase and change electricity loads significantly, which could impact
distribution networks and power quality and reliability. Distribution-network impacts can be
particularly critical for high-power charging and in cases in which many EVs are concentrated in
a specific location, such as clusters of residential LDV charging and possibly fleet depots for
commercial vehicles
This paper provides a timely status of the literature on several aspects of EV markets,
technologies, and future projections. The paper focuses on multiple facets that characterize
technology status and the role of EVs in transportation decarbonization and broader energytransformation pathways focusing on the U.S. context. As appropriate, global context is
provided as well. Hybrid EVs (for which liquid fuel is the only source of energy) and fuel cell EVs
(that power an electric powertrain with a fuel cell and on-board hydrogen storage) have some
similarities with EVs and could complement them for many applications.
8
DISCUSSION
1. Current State of Electric Vehicles
1.1. EV adoption
The global rate of adoption of light-duty EVs (passenger cars) has increased rapidly since the
mid-2010s, supported by three key pillars: improvements in battery technologies; a wide range
of supportive policies to reduce emissions; and regulations and standards to promote energy
efficiency and reduce petroleum consumption. Adoption of advanced technologies has been
underestimated historically in modeling and analyses; EV adoption is projected to remain
limited until 2030, and high uncertainty is shown afterward with widely different projections
from different sources. However, EVs hold great promise to replace conventional LDVs
affordably.
Barriers to EV adoption to date include consumer skepticism toward new technology, high
purchase prices, limited range and lack of charging infrastructure, and lack of available models
and other supply constraints. A major challenge facing both manufacturers and end-users of
medium- and heavy-duty EVs is the diverse set of operational requirements and duty cycles
that the vehicles encounter in real-world operation. EVs appear to be well suited for short-haul
trucking applications such as regional and local deliveries. The potential for battery-electric
models to work well in long-haul on-road applications has yet to be established, with different
studies indicating different opportunities.
1.2. Batteries and other EV technologies
Over the last 10 years, the price of lithium-ion battery packs has dropped by more than 80%
(from over $1000 kWh−1 to $156 kWh−1 at the end of 2019). Further price reduction is needed
to achieve EV purchase-price parity with ICEVs. Over the last 10 years, the specific energy of a
lithium-ion battery cell has almost doubled, reaching 240 Wh kg−1 reducing battery weight
significantly. Reducing or eliminating cobalt in lithium-ion batteries is an opportunity to lower
costs and reduce reliance on a rare material with controversial supply chains. While batteries
are playing a key role in the rise of EVs, power electronics and electric motors are also key
components of an EV powertrain. Recent trends toward integration promise to deliver benefits
in terms of increased power density, lower losses, and lower costs.
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1.3. Charging infrastructure
With a few million light-duty EVs on the road, currently, there is about one public charge point
per ten battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in U.S. Given the importance of home charging, charging
solutions in residential areas comprising attached or multi-unit dwellings is likely to be essential
for EVs to be adopted at large scale. Although public charging infrastructure is clearly important
to EV purchasers, how best to deploy charging infrastructure in terms of numbers, types,
locations, and timing remains an active area for research.
The economics of public charging vary with location and station configuration and depend
critically on equipment and installation costs, incentives, non-fuel revenues, and retail
electricity prices, which are heavily dependent on station utilization. The electrification of
medium- and heavy-duty commercial trucks and buses might introduce unique charging and
infrastructure requirements compared to those of light-duty passenger vehicles. Wireless
charging, specifically high-power wireless charging (beyond level-2 power), could play a key role
in providing an automated charging solution for tomorrow's automated vehicles.
1.4. Power system integration
Accommodating EV charging at the bulk power-system level (generation and transmission) is
different in each region, but there are no major known technical challenges or risks to support a
growing EV fleet, especially in the near term (approximately one decade). At the local level,
however, EV charging can increase and change electricity loads significantly, causing possible
10
negative impacts on distribution networks, especially for high-power charging. The integration
of EVs into power systems presents opportunities for synergistic improvement of the efficiency
and economics of electromobility and electric power systems, and EVs can support grid
planning and operations in several ways. There are still many challenges for effective EV-grid
integration at large scale, linked not only to the technical aspects of vehicle-grid-integration
(VGI) technology but also to societal, economic, business model, security, and regulatory
aspects. VGI offers many opportunities that justify the efforts required to overcome these
challenges. In addition to its services to the power system, VGI offers interesting perspectives
for the full exploitation of synergies between EVs and VRE as both technologies promise largescale deployment in the future.
1.5. Life-cycle cost and emissions
Many factors contribute to variability in EV life-cycle emissions, mostly the carbon intensity of
electricity, charging patterns, vehicle characteristics, and even local climate. Grid
decarbonization is a prerequisite for EVs to provide major GHG-emissions reductions. Existing
literature suggests that future EVs can offer 70%–90% lower GHG emissions compared to
today's ICEVs, most obviously due to broad expectations for continued grid decarbonization.
Operational costs of EVs (fuel and maintenance) are typically lower than those of ICEVs, largely
because EVs are more efficient than ICEVs and have fewer moving parts.
1.6. Synergies with other technologies and future expectations
Vehicle electrification fits in broader electrification and mobility macro-trends, including micromobility in urban areas, new mobility business models regarding ride-hailing and car-sharing,
and automation that complement well with EVs. While EVs are a relatively new technology and
automated vehicles are not readily available to the general public, the implications and
potential synergies of these technologies operating in conjunction are significant. The
coronavirus pandemic is impacting transportation markets negatively, including those for EVs,
but long-term prospects remain undiminished.
Several studies project major roles for EVs in the future, which is reflected in massive
investment in vehicle development and commercialization, charging infrastructure, and further
technology improvement. Consumer adoption and acceptance and technology progress form a
virtuous self-reinforcing circle of technology-component improvements and cost reductions.
EVs hold great promise to replace ICEVs affordably for a number of on-road applications,
eliminating petroleum dependence, improving local air quality and enabling GHG-emissions
reductions, and improving driving experiences. Forecasting the future, including technology
adoption, remains a daunting task. However, this detailed review paints a positive picture for
the future of EVs across a number of on-road applications.
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2. Growth of Electric Vehicles and Future Predictions
2.1. Electric Vehicles and Growth
This section provides a current snapshot of the electric-LDV market in a global and U.S. context,
but focuses on the latter. The global rate of adoption of electric LDVs has increased rapidly
since the mid-2010s. By the end of 2019, the global EV fleet reached 7.3 million units—up by
more than 40% from 2018—with more than 1.25 million electric LDVs in the U.S. market alone
EV sales totaled more than 2.2 million in 2019, exceeding the record level that was attained in
2018, despite mixed performances in different markets. Electric-LDV sales increased in Europe
and stagnated or declined in other major markets, particularly in China (with a significant
slowdown due to changes in Chinese subsidy policy in July 2019), Japan, and U.S. U.S. EV
adoption varies greatly geographically—nine counties in California currently see EVs accounting
for more than 10% of sales (8% on average for California as a whole), but national-level sales
remain at less than 3%. BEV sales exceeded those of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in
all regions.
The rapid increase in EV adoption is underpinned by three key pillars:
(a) Improvements and cost reductions in battery technologies, which were enabled initially by
the large-scale application of lithium-ion batteries in consumer electronics and smaller vehicles
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(e.g. scooters, especially in China). These developments offer clear and growing opportunities
for EVs and HEVs to deliver a reduced total cost of ownership (TCO) in comparison with ICEVs.
(b) A wide range of supportive policy instruments for clean transportation solutions in major
global markets, which are mirrored by private-sector investment. These developments are
driven by environmental goals, including reduction of local air pollution. These policy
instruments support charging-infrastructure deployment and provide monetary (e.g. rebates
and vehicle-registration discounts) and non-monetary (e.g. access to high-occupancy-vehicle
lanes and preferred parking) incentives to support EV adoption.
(c) Regulations and standards that support high-efficiency transportation solutions and reduce
petroleum consumption (e.g. fuel-economy standards, zero-emission-vehicle mandates, and
low-carbon-fuel standards). These regulations are being supported by technology-push
measures, consisting primarily of economic instruments (e.g. grants and research funds) that
aim to stimulate technological progress (especially batteries), and market-pull measures (e.g.
public-procurement programs) that aim to support the deployment of clean-mobility
technologies and enable cost reductions due to technology learning, scale, and risk mitigation.
Transport electrification also has started a virtuous self-reinforcing circle. Battery-technology
developments and cost reductions triggered by EV adoption provide significant economicdevelopment opportunities for the companies and countries intercepting the battery and EV
value chains. Adoption of alternative vehicles both is enabled and constrained by powerful
positive feedback arising from scale and learning by doing, research and development,
consumer experience and familiarity with technologies (e.g. neighborhood effect), and
complementary resources, such as fueling infrastructure. In this context, more diversity in make
and model market offerings is supporting vehicle adoption. As of April 2020, there are 50 EV
models available commercially in U.S. markets, and ∼130 are anticipated by 2023.
Measures that support transport electrification have been, and increasingly shall be,
accompanied by policies that control for the unwanted consequences. Thus, the measures need
to be framed in the broader energy and industry contexts. When looking at the future, EVadoption forecasts remain highly uncertain. Technology-adoption projections are used by a
number of stakeholders to guide investments, inform policy design and requirements, assess
benefits of previous and ongoing efforts, and develop long-term multi-sectoral assessments.
However, projecting the future, including technology adoption, is a daunting task. Past
projections often have turned out to be inaccurate. Still, progress has been made to address
projection uncertainty and contextualize scenarios to explore alternative futures in a useful
way. Scenario analysis is used largely in the energy-environment community to explore the
possible implications of different judgments and assumptions by considering a series of 'what if'
experiments.
Adoption of advanced technologies historically has been underestimated in modeling and
analysis results, which fail to capture the rapid technological progress and its impact on sales.
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Historical experiences suggest that technology diffusion, while notoriously difficult to predict,
can occur rapidly and with an extensive reach. Projecting personally owned LDV sales is
particularly challenging because decisions are made by billions of independent (not necessarily
rational) decision-makers valuing different vehicle attributes based on incomplete information
(e.g. misinformation and skepticism toward new technologies) and limited financial flexibility.
Many studies make projections for future EV sales. Some organizations (e.g. Energy Information
Administration [EIA]) historically have been conservative in projecting EV success, mostly due to
scenario constraints and assumptions. Still, U.S. EV-sales projections from EIA in recent years
are much higher than in the past. Others consistently have been more optimistic in terms of EV
sales and continue to adjust sales projections upward. Policy ambition for EV adoption is also
optimistic. For example, in September 2020, California passed new legislation that requires that
by 2035 all new car and passenger-truck sales be zero-emission vehicles (and that all mediumand heavy-duty vehicles be zero-emission by 2045). Projected EV sales and outcomes from
major energy companies vary widely, ranging from somewhat limited EV adoption (e.g.
ExxonMobil) to full market success (e.g. Shell). A survey from Columbia University considers 17
studies and shows that 'EV share of the global passenger vehicle fleet is not projected to be
substantial before 2030 given the long lead time in turning over the global automobile fleet'
and that 'the range of EVs in the 2040 fleet is 10% to 70%'. The studies compared in figure 1
show an even greater variability for 2050 projections, ranging from 13% to 100% of U.S. EV
adoption for LDVs.
2.2. The Three Pillars: Cost, Capacity and Charging time
Currently, the batteries are the main obstacle to EV wider adoption. The development of
better, cheaper, and higher capacity batteries will extend vehicles autonomy, and the users
view them as a true alternative to the internal combustion engine vehicles. In fact, batteries are
a key component in EVs and therefore, there are increasing manufacturers (e.g., LG, Panasonic,
Samsung, Sony, and Bosch) that invest to develop improved and cheaper batteries. The most
expensive component, in any EV, is the battery pack. For instance, lithium-ion batteries of the
Nissan LEAF initially represented a third of the cost of the
whole vehicle. However, it is expected that this cost will be progressively reduced; at the end of
2013, the battery pack costs around $500 per kWh (up to half the price per kWh it cost in
2009); currently, the price per kWh is of $200, and it is expected to fall around $100 in 2025.
Another fact that reinforces the battery cost reduction trend is that Tesla Motors is building a
“Gigafactory” in order to cut down on the production costs and raise the manufacturing of
batteries. The Gigafactory is designed to produce more lithium-ion batteries annually than the
produced worldwide in 2013. The lower battery cost would have an obviously direct impact on
EV price drop, which makes them more competitive with regard to traditional vehicles.
Regarding the capacity, Figure 5 shows the capacity of the batteries of different EVs from 1983,
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the date on which the Audi Duo was marketed with an 8 kWh battery until 2022, the date on
which Tesla announced that will market a Tesla Roadster with a 200 kWh battery.
When traveling with an EV, the key factor is the autonomy, but another limiting factor is the
time that is required for charging the batteries. The standard power outlets provide around 3
kW power, which would imply a 10 h load on average for charging a maximum of 30 kWh
energy in a battery. Even in the case of using fast charging systems, charging a vehicle may
require between 1 and 3 h. In order to solve this problem, an alternative is the creation of
Battery Exchange Stations (BESs), which are also known as Battery Swap Stations (BSSs), where
batteries are exchanged by similar ones already Smart Cities 2021, 4 383 charged. Israel initially
located 33 BESs, although Better Place (the company that developed battery-switching services
for EVs) filed for bankruptcy in May 2013. However, this approach was extended to the city of
Nanjing in 2015, a city of eight million people, which has thousands of electric buses operating.
BESs were also tested by taxi vehicles in Tokyo in 2010. Thinking about this strategy, Tesla
created a system in their Model S, in which batteries can be exchanged in only 90s. Denmark is
studying the possibility of creating a sufficient number of BESs with the purpose of providing an
infrastructure with 900 charging points and charging batteries stations that are operated by
robots.
Concerning the approaches that are related to battery exchange proposed on a scientific level,
Adler and Mirchandani suggested an in-line routing method for electric vehicles that allows for
changing the batteries in BEs using Markov’s random decision processes. Such a method would
reduce the waiting time more than 35%. Mak et al proposed robust optimization models that
help the process of the battery exchange planning. The authors also analyzed the possibility of
battery standardization and technological development in the optimal strategy for deploying
the infrastructures. Yang et al presented a dynamic operation model of BSSs in the electric
market, acquiring extra incomes when actively responding to the price fluctuation in the
electricity market. Storandt and Funke approached the EVs routing problem with the aim of
finding out what destinations are accessible from a particular location according to the current
battery level of the vehicle and the availability of charging or exchange battery stations.
2.3. Future of Electric Vehicles
The future remains uncertain, but there is a clear trend in projections of light-duty EV sales
toward more widespread adoption as the technology improves, consumers become more
familiar with the technology, automakers expand their offerings, and policies continue to
support the market. A number of studies analyze the drivers of EV adoption and highlight
several barriers for EVs to achieve widespread success, including consumer skepticism for new
technologies; uncertainty around environmental benefits (consumers wonder whether EVs
actually are green; unclear battery aging/resale value; high costs; lack of charging
infrastructure; range anxiety (the fear of being unable to complete a trip) associated with
shorter-range EVs; longer refueling times compared to conventional vehicles; dismissive and
15
deceptive car dealerships; and other EV-supply considerations, such as limited model
availability and limited supply chains.
A recent review of 239 articles published in top-tier journals focusing on EV adoption draws
attention to 'relatively neglected topics such as dealership experience, charging infrastructure
resilience, and marketing strategies as well as identifies much-studied topics such as charging
infrastructure development, TCO, and purchase-based incentive policies'. Similar reviews
published recently focus on different considerations, such as market heterogeneity, incentives
and policies, and TCO. Other than some limited discussions on business models and TCO, the
literature is focused on one side of the story, namely demand. However, the availability (makes
and models) of EVs is extremely limited compared to ICEVs. This is justified, in part, by new
technologies requiring time to be introduced, and, in part, by the higher manufacturer
revenues associated with selling and providing maintenance for ICEVs. Moreover, slow turnover
in legacy industry and other supply constraints can be a major barrier to widespread EV uptake.
Kurani (2020) argues that in most cases, 'Results of large sample surveys and small sample
workshops mutually reinforce the argument that continued growth of PEV markets faces a
barrier in the form of the inattention to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) of the vast majority of
car-owning and new-car-buying households even in a place widely regarded as a leader. Most
car-owning households are not paying attention to PEVs or the idea of a transition to electricdrive.'
3. Electric Vehicles and the environment
Research has shown that electric cars are better for the environment. They emit fewer
greenhouse gases and air pollutants than petrol or diesel cars. And this takes into account their
production and electricity generation to keep them running. The major benefit of electric cars is
the contribution that they can make towards improving air quality in towns and cities. With no
tailpipe, pure electric cars produce no carbon dioxide emissions when driving. This reduces air
pollution considerably. Put simply, electric cars give us cleaner streets making our towns and
cities a better place to be for pedestrians and cyclists. In over a year, just one electric car on the
roads can save an average 1.5 million grams of CO2. That’s the equivalent of four return flights
from London to Barcelona.
According to the Mayor of London, road transport accounts for around half of the capital's air
pollution. It’s no wonder that the UK government and local councils want to accelerate the
number of electric cars on the roads. The UK government has set a target that the sale of petrol
and diesel cars will be banned by 2040. The government is also looking to reduce carbon
emissions to zero by 2050, and electric cars will play a big role in that. What's more, EVs can
also help with noise pollution, especially in cities where speeds are generally low. As electric
cars are far quieter than conventional vehicles, driving electric creates a more peaceful
environment for us all.
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3.1. Effects of Electric car production on the Environment
Making electric cars does use a lot of energy. Even after taking battery manufacture into
account, electric cars are still a greener option. This is because of the reduction in emissions
created over the car’s lifetime. The emissions created during the production of an electric car
tend to be higher than a conventional car. This is due to the manufacture of lithium-ion
batteries which are an essential part of an electric car. More than a third of the lifetime CO2
emissions from an electric car come from the energy used to make the car itself. As technology
advances, this is changing for the better.
Reusing and recycling batteries is also a growing market. Research into the use of second-hand
batteries is looking at ways to reuse batteries in new technologies such as electricity storage.
One day we could all have batteries in our homes being used to store our own energy.
Opportunities like this will reduce the lifetime environmental impact of battery manufacture.
3.2 Environmental Impact: EVs vs ICE vehicles
Making electric cars does use a lot of energy. Even after taking battery manufacture into
account, electric cars are still a greener option. This is because of the reduction in emissions
created over the car’s lifetime. The emissions created during the production of an electric car
tend to be higher than a conventional car. This is due to the manufacture of lithium-ion
batteries which are an essential part of an electric car. More than a third of the lifetime CO2
emissions from an electric car come from the energy used to make the car itself. As technology
advances, this is changing for the better. Reusing and recycling batteries is also a growing
market. Research into the use of second-hand batteries is looking at ways to reuse batteries in
new technologies such as electricity storage. One day we could all have batteries in our homes
being used to store our own energy. Opportunities like this will reduce the lifetime
environmental impact of battery manufacture.
As a cleaner alternative, EVs are an important step in sustainable transportation. Below are five
major ways that EVs can benefit the environment.
1. EVs can produce zero tailpipe emissions.
Full electric vehicles do not need a tailpipe, as they don’t produce exhaust. Traditional engines
combust gasoline or diesel, creating energy at the cost of producing harmful carbon emissions.
By contrast, the batteries found in EVs are completely emission-free. The most common type of
battery employed in EVs is the lithium-ion battery. These batteries can be depleted and charged
repeatedly without contributing to air pollution.
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2. Even when using fossil fuels, EVs contribute fewer emissions than ICE vehicles.
Many electric charging stations use renewable energy to charge EVs. However, some are still
powered by coal-burning power plants and similar energy sources considered harmful to the
environment. In countries that primarily use coal, oil, or natural gas for power, charging EVs can
leave a more significant carbon footprint.
Yet, even when EVs are coal-powered, they still lead to lower emissions overall. Coal-reliant
countries like China have seen a 20% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions from using electric
cars. For countries that rely even less on fossil fuels, clean energy sources allow EVs to be even
greener.
3. EV battery production can be clean.
Although EVs don’t contribute much to air pollution on the road, manufacturing EV batteries
can be harmful if done irresponsibly. Nearly all EV emissions are well-to-wheel emissions
created during the battery production process. As EVs are still a newer technology, industry
standards are inconsistent with the energy sources used for making batteries, resulting in larger
carbon footprints. But this is already beginning to change.
Today’s EV batteries have a carbon footprint that is 2 to 3 times lower than two years ago, and
growing cleaner still. Manufacturers of EVs are setting guidelines for their battery suppliers. For
example, they require suppliers to only use renewable energy sources during production, such
as solar and wind. These sources can provide the large amount of energy needed to produce EV
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batteries without harmful emissions. In fact, EV automaker Tesla plans to manufacture its
batteries using 100% renewable energy.
4. ICE vehicles pollute continuously.
Apart from the limited use of coal-fueled charging stations, EVs do not contribute to air
pollution after they are manufactured. Most emissions are produced during the battery
manufacturing process. That means total emissions of an EV can be measured before it even
starts up for the first time.
ICE vehicles, on the other hand, produce CO2 emissions whenever their engines are on. On
average, a gasoline-powered passenger vehicle produces between 5 to 6 metric tons of CO2 per
year. A study by the Union of Concerned Scientists found that the ICE emissions surpass the
EVs’ well-to-wheel emissions in just 6-18 months of operation. With millions of ICE vehicles
being driven worldwide, emissions continue to be produced in great volumes. Alternatively, an
electric vehicle powered by renewable energy will maintain a neutral carbon footprint,
indefinitely.
5. EV manufacturers use eco-friendly materials.
One of the major obstacles facing EV manufacturers is producing a functional, lightweight
vehicle. Lighter EVs have a greater range and smaller carbon footprint, but traditional materials
make it difficult to achieve this. However, recycled and organic materials are now comparable
to traditional materials. They’re lightweight, eco-friendly, strong, and durable.
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Many conventional manufacturers use recycled materials for small components, but currently
don’t use them for a vehicle’s structure. EV manufacturers are using and improving eco-friendly
materials to build lighter, more efficient vehicles. Weight reduction is not the only benefit of
using recycled and organic materials—they are also better for the environment. Using new
materials like metals and plastics is unsustainable and creates pollution. All-natural or recycled
materials minimize the environmental impact both during and after the EV production process.
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CONCLUSION
This report was put together to provide insight into the state of EV manufacturing and adoption
along with the problems they pose as well as the environmental impacts their mass production
entails. Both developed and developing countries have become more active in EV introduction
and diffusion. In developed countries, the government has led the promotion of nextgeneration environment-friendly vehicles. In the industrial world, not only conventional auto
manufacturers but also large and small enterprises have joined the EV business as new business
opportunities. In accordance with the implementation of many pilot projects and EV related
events, public expectation on EVs is high. However, there is no clear indication for full-fledged
diffusion. This is because of high prices of EVs, limited models, lack of charging infrastructure,
and lack of trust in the market in terms of life span of EVs and safety. On the other hand, big
auto manufacturers have become bolder in EV development, which is seen to address the
above-mentioned problems and accelerate EV diffusion.
The progress that the electric vehicle industry has seen in recent years is not only extremely
welcomed, but highly necessary in light of the increasing global greenhouse gas levels. As
demonstrated within the economic, social, and environmental analysis sections of this
webpage, the benefits of electric vehicles far surpass the costs. The biggest obstacle to the
widespread adoption of electric-powered transportation is cost related, as gasoline and the
vehicles that run on it are readily available, convenient, and less costly. As is demonstrated in
this report, I hope that over the course of the next decade technological advancements and
policy changes will help ease the transition from traditional fuel-powered vehicles. Additionally,
the realization and success of this industry relies heavily on the global population, and it is my
hope that through mass marketing and environmental education programs people will feel
incentivized and empowered to drive an electric-powered vehicle. I sincerely hope this report
can help to enlighten the reader regarding the topic at hand.
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RECOMMENDATION
Technology will play a significant role in enabling charging and grid infrastructure and
maintaining a steady supply of critical minerals to support the widespread adoption of EVs at an
affordable cost.
1. Smart and flexible charging
Cars are normally idle 95% of the time. Smart and flexible charging technology utilizes unused
power from car batteries to provide additional electricity supply to the grid during times of
peak demand or, in some cases, just intelligently pauses or reduces charging power. Conversely,
it enables consumers to recharge during off-peak hours, at one-third or less of the peak-hour
charging price, thus reducing grid congestion during peak hours and cost for consumers. By
allowing EV owners to schedule charging based on power constraints, price and priority, and to
sell unused power back to the grid, the charging system can better anticipate sudden peaks in
electricity demand. The technology also enables the grid to increase capacity, serve the
increased demand from electric vehicles at a lower cost to consumers, reduce grid system
stress and avoid energy price surges.
2. Smart energy management for effective EV load management
Energy management systems orchestrate the generation assets (such as solar or wind power
installations) and demand assets (such as EV chargers, heating and cooling systems, and
lighting) of an energy system on an integrated digital platform. This allows real-time monitoring
of asset health and performance via Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity and AI-driven
algorithms, which in turn maximize renewable energy consumption, thus reducing operational
costs and system investments. It also allows EV and stationary storage to be co-optimized with
other assets connected to the grid, providing additional grid stability services compatible with
local renewable energy resources, to balance the load and ensure steady energy supply and
stable market prices.
3. Battery monitoring, analytics and recycling
AIoT-enabled battery monitoring and analytics for EVs and stationary storage enables
predictive maintenance and usage optimization that can extend battery lifetime, helping reduce
the need for new batteries and supply chain pressure. Furthermore, data can support better
decisions on when to repurpose or recycle batteries and identify individual cells that are
damaged (vs scrapping the entire battery pack) thus simplifying and optimizing recycling of
lithium-ion batteries.
4. Design simplifications and value-neutral discontenting
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OEMs can take lessons from leading e-vehicle concepts, for which our proprietary teardown
study revealed that cockpit, electronics, and body simplifications netted up to $600 in reduced
costs, without removing core feature content tied to value generation for the OEM. Eliminating
extra displays, buttons, switches, wiring, modules, and additional structural components, as
well as reducing the overall design complexity, drove major savings. Our experts also noted that
OEMs can only capture all of these material cost savings when using a dedicated EV platform
that enables better packaging of interior cabin space, power electronics, motors, and battery
packs. However, we also gain insights by benchmarking low-cost designs from the non-EV
world. Our analysis shows that OEMs can apply these learnings and create fun-to-drive and
simple vehicles costing $1,300 to $1,800 less through smart feature choices, designspecification adjustments, and manufacturing improvements—all without compromising safety.
Some of these content choices include using more basic vehicle electronics with fewer powered
options, straightforward body styling and lighting, uncomplicated seat designs, and simplified
interior trim (Exhibit 3). Our work suggests that companies can extract component savings of 20
to 30 percent with these design approaches, including by adjusting material specifications and
negotiating with suppliers with the shared objective of EV profitability.
With the transition to EVs well underway, fueled by rising environmental concerns, government
legislation and financial incentives, the challenges presented by this shift are only increasing.
Fortunately, together with other hardware, manufacturing and supply chain solutions, AIoTassisted technology enables us to overcome many challenges. Smart charging technology
improves charging infrastructure and customer experience. Smart energy management
improves EV and stationary load management, reducing the risk of grid overload, and enables
greater consumption of renewable energy. Battery monitoring, analytics and recycling mitigate
supply shortages faced by rising demand for the needed battery minerals by extending lifetime
and reusability.
With the global drive to reduce emissions, coupled with technologies expediting the
electrification of transport, more countries will follow Germany and other nations in banning
sales of combustion engine vehicles. Knowing that the ban could be enforced as early as 2030,
the question that remains is: are companies, districts and cities ready to switch to EVs in this
decade?
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BIBLIOGRAPHY

Sanguesa, J.A.; Torres-Sanz, V.; Garrido, P.; Martinez, F.J.; Marquez-Barja, J.M. A Review
on Electric Vehicles: Technologies and Challenges. Smart Cities 2021, 4, 372–404.
https://doi.org/10.3390/ smartcities4010022
 Joseph Samsara. November 3,2021. “How Are Electric Vehicles Better for the
Environment?”. https://www.samsara.com/guides/how-are-electric-vehicles-better-forthe-environment/
 André Gonçalves - Editor & Head Of English Market. September 25, 2018. “Are Electric
Cars Really Greener?”. https://youmatter.world/en/are-electric-cars-eco-friendly-andzero-emission-vehicles-26440/
 Matteo Barisione. Mar 5, 2021. “Electric vehicles and air pollution: the claims and the
facts”. https://epha.org/electric-vehicles-and-air-pollution-the-claims-and-the-facts/
 Matteo Muratori, Marcus Alexander, Doug Arent, Morgan Bazilian, Pierpaolo Cazzola,
Ercan M Dede, John Farrell, Chris Gearhart, David Greene6, Alan Jenn. March 25, 2021.
“The rise of electric vehicles—2020 status and future expectations”.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/25161083/abe0ad?utm_source=Social+Media&utm_medium=TW&utm_campaign=PRGETW+PHL+122221
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REFERENCES
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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722001068 - b9
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2022/executive-summary
https://www.wri.org/insights/what-projected-growth-electric-vehicles-adoption
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/25161083/abe0ad?utm_source=Social+Media&utm_medium=TW&utm_campaign=PRGETW+PHL+122221
https://epha.org/electric-vehicles-and-air-pollution-the-claims-and-the-facts/
https://youmatter.world/en/are-electric-cars-eco-friendly-and-zero-emission-vehicles26440/
https://www.edfenergy.com/for-home/energywise/electric-cars-and-environment :~:text=Research%20has%20shown%20that%20electric,generation%20to%20keep%20t
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https://www.edfenergy.com/for-home/energywise/electric-cars-and-environment
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GLOSSARY
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Trajectory: a path, progression, or line of development resembling a physical trajectory
an upward career trajectory
Redundant: not or no longer needed or useful; superfluous
Automotive: relating to or concerned with motor vehicles
EV: Electric Vehicle
Mainstream: the ideas, attitudes, or activities that are shared by most people and
regarded as normal or conventional
Snapshot: an informal photograph taken quickly, typically with a small handheld camera
Synthesize: produce (sound) electronically
Methodology: a system of methods used in a particular area of study or activity
Tailpipe: the rear section of the exhaust pipe of a motor vehicle.
Roadblock: a hindrance or obstruction
Transmission: the mechanism by which power is transmitted from an engine to the axle
in a motor vehicle
Dwelling: to live or stay as a permanent resident
Rebate: a partial refund to someone who has paid too much for tax, rent, or a utility
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Autonomy: he right or condition of self-government
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