Ti Insight Research Nanostores: retail logistics challenges and opportunities in developing markets Rather than being marginalized by modern supermarket or hypermarket formats, in the developing world traditional retailing or ‘nanostores’ are flourishing. This provides huge supply chain and logistics challenges to the manufacturers who want to reach this fragmented and largely urban market. In a large part of the developing world, consumers’ shopping needs are not met by e-commerce giants or indeed by superstores, but by what have been termed ‘traditional’ retailers or ‘nanostores’. A nanostore has been defined by researchers at the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics as ‘a small, family-owned outlet operated by fewer than five people located in a densely populated neighborhood’. Many such stores are run by a family and in some cases may even consist of a handcart rather than retail premises. It might be thought that as in the West, ‘mom-and-pop’ stores would be on the decline. However, this is not the case. The estimated 50 million nanostores are on the increase, fuelled by the development of megacities occurring as a result of large numbers of people migrating from rural areas in search of better prospects. It has been estimated that in many developing countries nanostores account for half of the retail market. As one consulting company stated, ‘Globally, the trade channel mix is becoming more fragmented as consumers shift toward smaller store formats.’1 Whilst many consumer goods companies recognise the opportunity which distributing their goods through these channels offers, dealing with a hugely fragmented and technologically undeveloped customer base has many challenges. These nanostores are not just ‘small supermarkets’ – they have a completely different set of needs and characteristics as will be examined in this paper. Nanostores: a large and growing market Why are nanostores so important to the future supply chain and logistics strategies of the world’s largest manufacturers? The answer lies in the development in importance of megacities to the global economy. Presently, the world’s largest 600 cities account for 60% of global GDP, and whilst this is not expected to change much over the next 5 years or so, the make-up of these cities will. 136 new emerging market cities will enter the top 600, replacing those from the developed economies. Serving nanostores in these megacities will become critical to the success of consumer goods manufacturers. 1 https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/04/nielsen-global-e-commerce-new-retail-report- april-2015.pdf 1 © Transport Intelligence Ltd www.ti-insight.com Ti Insight Research For instance in Bogota, Colombia, 47,000 nanostores serve 10 million consumers and in Beijing, China 60,000 nanostores serve 20 million consumers. In China as a whole 6.8 million nanostores generate 1 trillion RMB a year whilst in India and SubSaharan Africa more than 90% of retail sales are generated through this format. Even in more mature parts of the developing world (such as East Asia) they account for more than 40% of sales. In terms of size, the aggregated revenues of these nanostores would make them amongst the largest customers for consumer packaged goods (CPG) manufacturers. However, it is not only their scale which makes them important. The fragmented nature of the market means that manufacturers can make more money from smaller customers than they can from supermarkets or hypermarkets whose scale enables them to squeeze suppliers’ margins. One estimate suggests that penetrating the nanostore market could enable CPG companies to increase sales by 5-15% and increase profit by 10-20%.2 Another positive trend has been an increase in the disposable income of people living in megacities which has brought many goods – particularly personal care products – within reach of many more people. This fact has long been identified by a few of the major CPG companies although others are still scrambling to catch up. • • • • • Coca Cola: 1.2 million points of sale in Mexico and serves 1.3 nanostores in China Unilever: Delivers ice cream to 10,000 freezers in nanostores in Mexico City Danone: Serves 40,000 nanostores in Beijing Unilever: Serves 1.5 million nanostores directly in India Grupo Bimbo (bakery): Serves 7 million points of sale across Latin America.3 Many of the challenges related to distributing goods to nanostores are caused by the characteristics of emerging market megacities, not least due to their high urban population density. Whilst cities in Europe and North America typically have a density of 2,000 to 5,000 people per square km, the average is much higher in the developing world. For instance, the average density is 30,000 people per square km, which obviously suggests that in some areas it is likely to be much higher. The low incomes of the people living in megacities means that the proportion of people owning a car is also low. This means that stores need to be in close proximity to high population centres. This has been 2 Diaz, Alejandro, Magni, Max, and Poh, Felix. From oxcart to wal-mart: four keys to reaching emerging-market consumers, October 2012 3 Blanco, Edgar E. and Fransoo, Jan C. Reaching 50 million nanostores: retail distribution in emerging megacities. 2 © Transport Intelligence Ltd www.ti-insight.com Ti Insight Research a major inhibitor to the growth of supermarket and hypermarket models which rely heavily on the consumer being able to transport goods from the store by car. Megacities often have the characteristic of areas of poverty juxtaposed to areas of relative wealth. In Bogota, Colombia, for example, areas with an average pay of $100 per month and with 1 store per 150 population, can be located next to areas with an average pay of $1000 per month and with 1 store per 250 people. This obviously make distribution strategies highly challenging. What are the supply chain challenges? If consumer good manufacturers are to serve this fragmented customer base, they will need to adopt a very different logistics strategy to that employed in the developed world. Manufacturers in Europe and North America are used to supplying full truck loads to centralized retail distribution facilities, which in turn dispatch full truck loads to large retail premises. This is the complete opposite of the supply chain structures required to serve thousands of nanostores and the added complexity of this has led many manufacturers to supply such markets through wholesalers. However, such an approach means that the manufacturer loses its direct relationship with retailers, and risks losing an understanding of the market and even the competition for very limited shelf space. This direct relationship is critical to serving nanostores. In many markets, representatives are employed by manufacturers to undertake ‘pre-sales’ and ‘on-board’ van sales activities. Pre-sales involves a sales representative travelling to each store to assess needs and collect orders which are then fulfilled at a later stage (possibly next day) by a delivery van. ‘On-board’ or ‘van-sales’ combines the pre-sales and fulfilment at the same time. Both approaches ensure shelf-space for manufacturers’ products but also involve promotion, order-processing, re-stocking, after-sales support and collection of payments. The appropriateness of each approach depends on many logistics considerations. One study, looking at the distribution of orange juice to nanostores in Casablanca, found that the pre-sales method was more effective but relied on factors such as the distance between stores, the number of stores visited, the traveling time, the collected orders and time spent in the store. Congestion was a key variable, as was the difficulty in finding a parking bay4. 4 https://janfransoo.com/2017/10/12/serving-nanostores-by-van-sales-or-pre-sales/ 3 © Transport Intelligence Ltd www.ti-insight.com Ti Insight Research • Size of store An obvious logistics challenge is the size of the nanostores. Many are no more than 15 sqm in size (perhaps a converted garage) or indeed could be a street cart. Due to the size of premises and the fact that they have very low levels of cash to buy products (buying in bulk is out of the question) they rely on very frequent deliveries. This has an impact on the drop frequencies of carriers which resemble more a parcels distribution model than modern retail logistics in the developed world: a carrier delivering to nanostores often has more than a 100 drops per day. • Cash economies The majority of these stores lack financial and communications technology (with the exception of cellphones) which means that most transactions are either cash or credit. The reliance on cash is also due to the fact that many of these entities don’t formally exist in order to avoid tax and regulations. This creates problems in terms of the return of Cash on Delivery payments up the supply chain. Informal credit facilities exist both supplied by the nanostore to regular customers who they know well (most stores have a maximum of 200 customers and so understand the risk of advancing credit) but also by suppliers to the nanostore. Although goods are often supplied on a Cash on Delivery basis, the proprietor may not be able to pay the supplier until the goods are actually sold and so there may be multiple trips made before the money can be collected – adding significantly to logistics costs. The movement of cash has obvious security issues, especially given the urban areas in which many of these stores are located. • Last mile delivery Although car ownership levels may be low in many cities, the weak transport infrastructure and a lack of planning has meant that congestion levels are high. Streets are often narrow and/or steep which means access for lorries is difficult. Whilst in developed markets deliveries of full truck loads to large stores are the most frequent type of distribution, in developing markets there may be 3, 4 or more hand offs of products to ever smaller and less formal warehousing and transport companies. Final delivery may be made, for example to the nanostore by a courier on a tricycle. Research has shown that one of the key problems faced by delivery drivers is parking. This is caused by the limited availability of parking space as well as the problem of cars parking in dedicated loading/unloading bays. This means that unnecessary time is wasted by van drivers for each drop, causing lower productivity. It has been shown that when city administrations enforce the proper use of 4 © Transport Intelligence Ltd www.ti-insight.com Ti Insight Research parking spaces, productivity increases and van emissions (caused by vehicles circling trying to find an unloading bay) decrease. In some cities new apps have been developed to show available parking bays. New retailer strategies in China Both of China’s e-retail giants, Alibaba and JD.com, have looked to leverage the attributes of nanostores in order to fulfil the next stage of their corporate strategy: online to offline (O2O). Alibaba has targeted the local market through its ‘Ling Shou Tong’ or ‘retail integrated’ programme. The scheme not only provides stores with basic products, fresh and packaged foods and cigarettes as well as a make over, but it also integrates them within Alibaba’s technology platform. This provides analytics and automation which previously had only been available to modern retailers. • • • When ordering via the Ling Shou Tong app, the proprietor receives suggestions based on sales of the most popular items. Orders are consolidated, so stores need only place one order rather than deal with multiple suppliers. Orders for fast moving goods are dispatched from local warehouses on a next day basis whilst slower moving goods are dispatched on a guaranteed two day service from regional warehouses. The programme also provides benefits to CPG companies. The data which is generated and shared by Alibaba, gives them more visibility of consumer demand and can allow them to tailor specific products for a market. For instance, Mondelez has used this within its Oreo range of snacks. The relationship allows nanostores to focus on one of their core competitive advantages which is hyper-localism by providing them with even more insight into their customers’ buying behaviours. For larger stores, there is the option to become a Tmall Corner Store which provides them with higher levels of integration, product selection, a point-of-sales system, LED signage and in-store digital advertising. Alibaba and the nanostores can also use this partnership to offer other services such as cellphone data top ups.5 Rival retailer JD.com has followed a slightly different strategy. Alongside its ‘retail-as-a-service’ solution (similar to Alibaba’s above) it has created a nanostore franchise network which according to management is expanding at the colossal rate of 1000 stores a week with a target figure of 1000 stores a day. The plan is to open 1 million stores by 2023, owned and operated by private individuals who have the opportunity to receive a loan from the company to help with the set up costs. As well as urban 5 https://www.alizila.com/alibaba-gives-dose-new-retail-china-convenience-stores/ 5 © Transport Intelligence Ltd www.ti-insight.com Ti Insight Research areas, the retailer is looking to push its reach into the undeveloped and under-serviced rural locations. Although stocking mostly JD.com products, franchises also have the opportunity to stock items from other retailers. However, there are signs that this aggressive expansion plan has hit problems and that the roll out is well behind schedule. Part of the reason for this is that the company has struggled to convince store owners to ditch existing supplier relationships in favour of JD.com’s range, especially in cities or regions where the retailer has low brand awareness6. Other innovative tools and solutions are being developed right across the developing world focused on this growing sector. These include: • • • New technology platforms which have the potential to harness the combined power of thousands of nanostores. BeeQuick in Beijing creates a virtual network of nanostores which enables buyers to order consumer goods and have them delivered to their homes. Go Jek – an ‘uber’ for motorcycles in Indonesia works with 400,000 drivers. As well as carrying passengers on pillions, it also allows nanostores to operate a home delivery service in Jakarta. Colmapp in Dominican Republic. Bakery product manufacturer Grupo Bimbo equips nanostores with devices so they can take card payments using government cards. Conclusion Nanostores have grown in popularity due to their proximity to large, growing and densely packed populations within megacities. They are able to reach consumers much more effectively than formal, modern retail distribution channels and they represent a route to market which cannot be ignored by the large consumer goods manufacturers. However, this does not mean that their future is ensured. The development of smartphone technology will allow increasingly well off consumers (at least in relative terms) access to new platforms which will allow them even great opportunities to access a wider range of products than can be offered by nanostores. Rather than develop large supermarket or hypermarket models in these areas, larger retailers may well be better advised to ‘leapfrog’ this stage of retail development and build on-demand delivery networks. After all, if consumers demand proximity, nothing is closer than access to products via the smartphone in their pocket. 6 https://technode.com/2019/03/11/why-jd-is-tripping-up-in-new-retail-race/ 6 © Transport Intelligence Ltd www.ti-insight.com Ti Insight Research About Ti Insight Ti Insight compiles thousands of inventory benchmarking data for the retail, automotive, pharmaceutical, chemical, fashion, consumer electronics and high tech sectors. The data are contained with the Global Supply Chain Intelligence portal. For more information contact Michael Clover at mclover@ti-insight.com. 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