Svetlana Danilkina Lectures, week 1 Topic 1. Consumer Theory Econ20002 Intermediate Microeconomics W1-1 Overview 1. Budget set a. b. c. d. e. f. g. 2. bundles budget set and budget line; how to draw math: formula for a budget line the slope of the budget line what happens if income falls what happens if price rises other changes Preferences a. b. c. d. e. completeness, transitivity and more is better indifference curves and maps goods and “bads” convexity and concavity the shape of the indifference curves and the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) W1-2 Consumer choice problem • Hungry Jack is always hungry. He likes Big Macs and Coca-Cola very much but thinks that eating them all the time may not be very healthy. • Recently, he was invited to repeat Morgan Spurlock’ experience in Supersize me and eat only Big Macs and drink Coke for a month. He was allocated income I to spend on the food. • Jack accepted the offer with the enthusiasm. • Can we say how many Big Macs and cups of Coke he will buy? W1-3 What do we need? To understand Jack’s purchases of Big Macs and Coke we need to know • his preferences over Big Macs and Coke (what he likes) • his budget constraint (what he can afford) • how he makes a decision: is he rational? (Is he choosing, for example, randomly,…?) W1-4 1. Budget constraints 1a. bundles Jack can buy, for example (per month): (60 burgers, 60 cups of Coke) or (180 burgers, 30 cups of Coke) or (30 burgers, 120 cups of Coke) or (0 burgers, 150 cups of Coke) or any other combination of these two goods. We call them bundles of goods, or market baskets. A consumer bundle, or market basket, is a list of specific quantities of goods to buy. W1-5 1b. Budget set What bundles Jack can buy depends on • how much money he has to spend (his income I) and • the prices of the goods he wants to buy (the price of BigMac and the price of Coke). Therefore, his choice of bundles is restricted by what he can afford. He might want to eat a thousand of burgers and drink a thousand of cups of Coke (and probably die from too much food), but he may or may not be able to afford them. Budget set the set (in other words, collection) of all bundles of goods that consumer can afford given prices of goods and his/her income. It is a set of feasible bundles. W1-6 Jack goes to the McDonalds • he can spend up to $600 (this is his income or wealth) • he can buy Coke at $2.50 per cup • he can buy BigMacs at $5 each • We can draw up his budget set (all bundles of BigMacs and Coke he can afford) • The outer boundary of the budget set is called the budget line. It consists of all bundles of goods for which he spends all his income. W1-7 To draw Jack's budget set • We have two goods and two dimensions q2 , Coke 30 20 10 10 20 30 q1, BigMacs W1-8 • Find the two intercepts (given by income divided by price for the relevant good) q2 , Coke I/p2= =600/2.50= =240 I/p1=600/5= =120 q1, BigMacs W1-9 • If Jack faces unchanging prices then the budget line is a straight line – Every time Jack buys one less BigMac he ‘frees up’ p1=$5. But Coke costs p2=$2.50 so with the extra $5 he can buy 2 cups of Coke (p1/p2 = $5/$2.50 = 2 Coke) q2 , Coke – Thus, the budget line is a straight line with slope =-2 (i.e. give up 1 BigMac to get 2 240 Coke) the budget set ? 1 the budget line; the slope = -p1/p2=-2 slope = -2 120 q1, BigMacs W1-10 q2 , Coke I/p2 =240 the budget set: p1q1 + p2q2 ≤ I 5*q1 + 2.50*q2 ≤ 600 the budget line: p1q1 + p2q2 = I 5*q1 + 2.50*q2 = 600 the slope = -p1/p2=-2 slope = -2 I/p1=120 q1, BigMacs W1-11 1c. math In general: q2 the budget set: p1q1 + p2q2 ≤ I I/p2 The better way to write down the budget line the budget line: p1q1 + p2q2 = I the slope=-p1/p2 q2 = a + bq1 intercept slope = -p1/p2 I/p1 the budget line: p1q1 + p2q2 = I q1 slope Only mathematician would do that! rearrange: p2q2 = I - p1q1=> q2 = I/p2 – (p1/p2) q1 intercept = I/p2 slope=-p1/p2 W1-12 1d. The slope of the budget line • The slope of the budget line tells us the marginal rate of transformation (MRT) of BigMacs for Coke in the market place (trade off between the two goods on the market). – By buying one less BigMac Jack can buy 2 more cups of Coke. • Alternatively, it tells us the opportunity cost of a BigMac to Jack in terms of Coke foregone – If Jack buys one more BigMac he gives up the chance of buying an extra 2 cups of Coke. W1-13 When things change … Change in prices and income can cause the budget line to shift inward or outward, rotate inward or outward, become steeper or flatter... • A rise in income results in a parallel shift of the budget line outward • A fall in income results in a parallel shift of the budget line inward • A change in one price causes the budget line to rotate about one intercept πάντα χωρεϊ καί ούδέν μένει, Heraclitus as interpreted by Plato W1-14 1e. What happens if Jack's income falls from $600 to $500? q , Coke 2 240 Both end points change. if Jack only buys BigMacs then the most he can buy now is 100 BigMacs, not 120. He can buy 20 less BigMacs (he has lost $100 and each BigMac is $5) 100 120 q1, BigMacs W1-15 What happens if Jack's income falls from $600 to $500? q , Coke 2 240 Both end points change. If Jack only buys Coke then the most he can buy now is 200 cups, not 240 cups. He can buy 40 less cups (he has lost $100 and each Coke is $2.50 per cup) 200 100 120 q1, BigMacs W1-16 What happens if Jack's income falls from $600 to $500? q , Coke 2 240 But note that the slope of Jack's budget line does not change. The slope is the negative of the price ratio – and the prices are unchanged. 200 Result: a parallel shift of the budget line inward 100 120 q1, BigMacs W1-17 1f. What happens if the price of BigMacs rises to $6 each? q2 , Coke 240 This intercept doesn’t change – if you buy only Coke, the price of BigMacs is irrelevant 120 q1, BigMacs W1-18 What happens if the price of BigMacs rises to $6 each? q2 , Coke But this intercept does change. With $600 Jack can only buy a maximum of 100 BigMacs at the new higher price, not 120 BigMacs 240 100 120 q1, BigMacs W1-19 What happens if the price of BigMacs rises to $6 each? q2 , Coke The slope of the budget line also changes. The slope is -(PBigMac/Pcoke). 240 Initially the slope is -(5/2.5) = -2. But after the price rise the slope is -(6/2.5) = -2.4 Results: the budget line rotates inward and becomes steeper. 100 120 q1, BigMacs W1-20 What happens if the price of BigMacs rises to $6 each? • Why does the slope increase? – If Jack buys one less BigMac after the price rise, then he frees up $6 and can use this to buy 2.4 cup of Coke. So the MRT of BigMac for Coke in the market place is now 2.4. – Alternatively, note that if Jack buys an extra BigMac he spends $6 and gives up 2.4 Coke. So the opportunity cost of a BigMac for Jack is now 2.4 Coke. W1-21 1g. Other changes • What happens if Jack's income rises? • What happens if the price of Coke falls to $1 per cup? • What happens if both the price of BigMacs and the price of Coke doubles? • What happens if both the price of Coke and the price of BigMacs increase by 50% but Jack's income also increases by 50%? W1-22 math, please! q2 I/p2 the budget line: p1q1 + p2q2 = I the slope=-p1/p2 slope = -p1/p2 I/p1 q1 W1-23 Other changes • What happens if Jack's income rises? – his budget line shifts out parallel to the original b.l. • What happens if the price of Coke falls to $1 per cup? – his budget line rotates outward around the ‘BigMac intercept’ • What happens if both the price of BigMacs and the price of Coke doubles? – This is just like a halving of Jack's income • What happens if both the price of Coke and the price of BigMacs increase by 50% but Jack's income also increases by 50%? – Nothing happens to his budget set! (no “money illusion”) W1-24 2. Preferences We can use a weak preference relation ≿ to represent the consumer’s preferences: if A ≿ B, we say that bundle A is at least as good as bundle B (you can also say “A is weakly preferred to B” or “A is weakly better than B”). Consumers’ preferences usually satisfy some assumptions. We will discuss some of them. Assumption 1. Completeness Any two consumption bundles can be compared: for any A and B, either A ≿ B or B ≿ A. • note that “or” here is inclusive (i.e. it could be both) • does this assumption always hold? W1-25 Strict preference and indifference Consider two bundles, A and B. When the consumer compares them, three things could happen: • the consumer prefers A to B: A ≻ B, i.e. A is better than B. This happens when A ≿ B but B is not ≿ A. This relation, ≻, is a strict preference relation (the consumer strictly prefers A to B). • the consumer prefers B to A: B ≻ A. This happens when B ≿ A but A is not ≿ B. • the consumer is indifferent between A and B: A ∼ B, i.e. the consumer is equally satisfied with either bundle. This happens when A ≿ B and B ≿ A. This relation, ∼, is an indifference relation. W1-26 • We can restate the Assumption 1 in terms of strict preference and indifference. Assumption 1’. Completeness Any two bundles can be compared: for any A and B, either A ≻ B, or B ≻ A, or A ∼ B. • Thus, for any two bundles A and B, a consumer will prefer A to B, will prefer B to A, or will be indifferent between the two. • Note that this comparison of bundles is about preferences (“likes”), not about choices. The prices and expenditures are completely ignored at this point. When the consumer is making an actual choice, he will need to take into account his budget constraint, for example, Jack can prefer steak to BigMac but buy BigMac because it is cheaper. W1-27 Assumption 2. Transitivity if bundle A is at least as good as B and B is at least as good as C, then A is at least as good as C: if A ≿ B and B ≿ C then A ≿ C. • money pump: pink ≻ blue ≻ green ≻ pink ≻ … (if your preferences do not satisfy transitivity) • You can prove (in more advanced Micro subjects) that A2. Transitivity implies the following: • if A ≻ B and B ≻ C then A ≻ C • if A ∼ B and B ∼ C then A ∼ C • if A ≻ B and B ∼ C then A ≻ C • if A ∼ B and B ≻ C then A ≻ C W1-28 Assumption 3. More is better than less Consumers always prefer more of any good to less. • Goods are assumed to be desirable—i.e., to be good. • In addition, consumers are never satisfied or satiated; more is always better, even if just a little better. • There are many examples where “more is better” assumption is not satisfied. There are “bads” you prefer to avoid; it could be “too much” of a good thing and so on. In more advanced subjects, a slightly different assumption is usually made – strict monotonicity. It is weaker than “more is better”. This means that preferences that satisfy “more is better” are strictly monotonic, but the opposite is not true: strictly monotonic preferences may or may not satisfy “more is better”. W1-29 2b. Indifference Curves FIGURE 3.1 DESCRIBING INDIVIDUAL PREFERENCES Ann’s preferences Because more of each good is preferred to less, we can compare market baskets in the shaded areas. Basket A is clearly preferred to basket G, while E is clearly preferred to A. However, A cannot be compared with B, D, or H without additional information. ● indifference curve A curve representing all combinations of market baskets that provide a consumer with the same level of satisfaction. L1-30 FIGURE 3.2 AN INDIFFERENCE CURVE Ann’s preferences The indifference curve U1 that passes through market basket A shows all baskets that give the consumer the same level of satisfaction as does market basket A; these include baskets B and D. Our consumer prefers basket E, which lies above U1, to A, but prefers A to H or G, which lie below U1. L1-31 Indifference Maps ● indifference map Graph containing a set of indifference curves showing the market baskets among which a consumer is indifferent. FIGURE 3.3 AN INDIFFERENCE MAP Tomasz’ preferences An indifference map is a set of indifference curves that describes a person's preferences. Any market basket on indifference curve U3, such as basket A, is preferred to any basket on curve U2 (e.g., basket B), which in turn is preferred to any basket on U1, such as D. L1-32 FIGURE 3.4 If preferences satisfy assumptions 1 to 3, then INDIFFERENCE CURVES CANNOT INTERSECT If indifference curves U1 and U2 intersect, one of the assumptions of consumer theory is violated. According to this diagram, the consumer should be indifferent among market baskets A, B, and D. Yet B should be preferred to D because B has more of both goods. What if preferences do not satisfy “more is better”? L1-33 2c. Goods and “bads” • If you prefer more of a product, then it is a ‘good’ • If you prefer less of a product then it is a bad (e.g. sewerage, rubbish, nuclear waste) • Some products can start as goods and then become bads as you get more W1-34 Here Curry and Sushi are both goods Hinata’s preferences Qcurry Direction of higher preference Qsushi W1-35 Curry is a good, sewerage is a bad Svetlana’s preferences Qcurry Direction of higher preference Qsewerage W1-36 Curry is a good if less than 10 curries but a bad if more than 10 Arjun’s preferences Qcurry Direction of increasing preference 10 Qsushi W1-37 If there is a ‘free disposal’, then you can just ‘throw away’ any excess of a product Mirna’s preferences Qcurry 10 When curry becomes a ‘bad’ after 10 (as in the previous slide), you can throw excess away Qsushi W1-38 2d. Convexity and concavity • If preferences are convex then indifference curves are ‘bowed inward’ – Prefer mixtures – Convex and strictly convex preferences are very common • If preferences are ‘concave’ then indifference curves are bowed out – Prefer extremes – Concave preferences are less common; the term is rarely used W1-39 Convex preferences Qcurry Direction of higher preference Qsushi W1-40 Convex preferences Direction of higher preference Qcurry 8 A Alex’ preferences Mixtures lie on a higher indifference curve and are preferred to extremes: C C ≻ A, C ≻ B. B 2 2 10 Qsushi 50%-50% mixture of bundles A and B is a bundle (6,5). 70%-30% mixture of bundles A and B is a bundle 0.7(2,8)+0.3(10,2)= (1.4+3, 5.6+0.6)=(4.4, 6.2) W1-41 Convex preferences: formal definition Qc A strictly convex preferences C B Qs Qc A C strictly convex preferences B Qs Qc convex, but not strictly convex preferences Qs Preferences are convex, if for any two bundles A and B such that bundle B is at least as good as A (i.e. B ≿ A), any bundle C that is a mixture of A and B (i.e. lies on the line segment between the two bundles) is at least as good as A: if B ≿ A and C is a mixture of the two, then C ≿ A. Preferences are strictly convex, if for any two distinct bundles A and B such that bundle B is at least as good as A (i.e. B ≿ A), any bundle C that is a mixture of A and B, is better than A: if B ≿ A and C is a mixture of the two, then C ≻ A. Strict convexity is a stronger property than convexity: strictly convex preferences are convex; convex preferences may or may not be convex. W1-42 Concave preferences Qcurry Betty’s preferences Qsushi Alex: convex preferences over curry and sushi (previous slide) Betty: concave preferences (this slide) Svetlana: vodka and chocolate The term “concave preferences” is not commonly used W1-43 2e. The Shape of Indifference Curves FIGURE 3.5 THE MARGINAL RATE OF SUBSTITUTION - MRS The magnitude of the slope of an indifference curve measures the consumer’s marginal rate of substitution (MRS) between two goods. Slope is negative; MRS is positive – it is an absolute value of the slope. In this figure, the MRS between clothing (C) and food (F) falls from 6 (between A and B) to 4 (between B and D) to 2 (between D and E) to 1 (between E and G). Pindyck/Rubinfeld: the MRSFC of food F for clothing C; we will use the following notation: MRSFC Danger! Note that economists managed to disagree on the terminology. Don’t even ask – I have no idea why. Perloff calls the same slope MRSFC of clothing for food. L1-44 diminishing marginal rate of substitution, a bit more precise Direction of higher preference Clothing MRSFC at bundle A MRSFC at bundle B MRSFC is the absolute value of the slope of the indifference curve = the absolute value of the slope of the tangent line. A MRSFC decreases when we move down the indifference curve. B C Food MRSFC at bundle C W1-45 The Marginal Rate of Substitution ● marginal rate of substitution (MRSxy) of good X for good Y: Maximum amount of good Y (which is on the vertical axis) that a consumer is willing to give up in order to obtain one additional unit of good X (which is on the horizontal axis). Assumption 4. Convexity If indifference curves exhibit diminishing MRS, then preferences are strictly convex; if MRS is weakly decreasing, i.e., it either decreases or stays the same, then preferences are convex. L1-46 • Often we will assume that preferences are convex and smooth so that there are no ‘kinks’ in indifference curves • To summarise, the common assumptions about preferences are: 1. completeness 2. transitivity 3. more is better 4. convexity • Preferences of any particular person may fail some of the above 4 assumptions, but, in most cases, we will be assuming that all four of them are satisfied. W1-47 Consumer choice? Utility maximisation? It isn't normal to know what we want. It is a rare and difficult psychological achievement. Abraham Maslow There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it. Oscar Wilde W1-48