High-Probability Conditions
rules and guidelines
economic calendar
forexfactory.com/calendar
CPI
NFP
FOMC
PCE
GDP
PPI
engineering liquidity [consolidation profile – lack of follow through]
_amtrades
consolidation
release
manipulation
avoid trading [intraday session] before high impact news release
M
T
W
NFP
Y
N
T
on
si
s
se
[before] market is likely to be stagnant and lag to price objectives
[during] high impact news events are drivers of volatility
[after] provides opportunity to catch expansion within risk to defined targets
bias and profiles can be framed around planned high impact economic events
allowing [intraday session] trading before solitary 10:00 high impact news
(no entering during or holding through release)
F
p
FP
N
ts
o
daily consolidation profile
•
speed
•
range
•
displacement
•
lacking displacement
•
directional
•
equilibrium
avoiding internal consolidated range participation
external range high [buyside liquidity]
_amtrades
daily
hourly
external range low [sellside liquidity]
[counter narrative] external liquidity engaged – target range equilibrium
[directional narrative] external liquidity purge – target opposite end of range + expansion continuation
utilize weekly profile and economic calendar to time consolidation breakout after manipulation
engineering liquidity
engaging liquidity
low-probability
high-probability
internal
external
overnight range expansion
[new york session trading]
_amtrades
daily open
[overnight session]
asia + london
AM session
[8:30]
PM session
[13:00]
volatility injection
[8:30 / 10:00]
no reaction upon news (if any)
reversal - expansion
retracement - expansion
inside day
[trapped order flow]
daily
_amtrades
inside
bar
previous day high and low
[set alert]
close charts otherwise
internal range
[lacking ≥ H1 PD arrays]
avoid participation
PD array
trapped order flow
internal (high-resistance)
economic calendar
avoid trading [intraday session] before high-impact news
allowing [intraday session] trading before solitary 10:00 high-impact news
(no entering during or holding through release)
non-farm payroll week
monday • tuesday • wednesday london
wednesday new york • thursday • friday before 8:30
friday after 8:30 news release
avoid internal consolidated daily range participation
wait for external range engagement
_amtrades
overnight range expansion
avoid AM session participation, seek PM session opportunity
inside day - lacking ≥ H1 PD arrays
avoid trading within previous day range
(set alert at previous day high and low)
no trading outside london or new york session
no trading on bank holidays
no trading half days
personal rules