FINANCE 361 – Topic 2 – Investors, assets and markets Paul Geertsema 1 Content s 1 Reading (before class)3 2 What are we doing today7 3 Market participants9 4 Investable assets22 5 Markets24 6 How banks work26 7 The business of fund management36 8 A list of books...40 2 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 1 Reading (before class) • Review BKM Ch 1, 2, 3, 4 (e.g. all of Part 1) • For funwww.alexcartoon.com – Daily since 1999... so there are now thousands of cartoons – Once you have gone through all of them, you’ll have better appreciation of how the City really works – Note: will not be examined 3 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Reading (before class) (cont.) • First one (8 Jun 1999) 4 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Reading (before class) (cont.) • Another one (2 Feb 2021) 5 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Reading (before class) (cont.) • You might not get the previous joke if you don’t know about the GameStop episode – seeen.wikipedia.org/wiki/GameStop_short_squeeze for background) Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/lkz1wm/oc_timeline_of_the_rise_and_fall_of_gme_stock/ 6 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 2 What are we doing today • Have a chat about what investment management means • Talk about – Who invests (Market participants) – What they invest in (Investable assets) – Where they invest (Markets) • Discuss banks – How they are structured – The sort of business they do – How they make money 7 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 What are we doing today (cont.) • Discuss fund managers – Who gives them money to manage (and, why?) – How do they make money ◦ For their ◦ clients For themselves • So this topic is about making sure you have a fair idea of the entities that are involved in markets, how they are incentivisedand how they operate 8 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 3 Market participants • In common language, the people and organisations that buy and sell financial assets as part of their normal business • Why do we care? – If you want to work in finance, you will likely be employed by one of these participants – To understand investments, you need to understand the entities making investments – Each of these participants have different incentives and con- straints 9 ◦ We’ll see that markets are on the whole pretty efficient ◦ By that I mean it is not all that easy to “beat the market” ◦ Understanding the incentives and constraints of other parti- cipants is one of a few ways to get the “edge” youFINANCE will need you– University really ofwant to– beat 361 ClassifNotes Auckland Copyrightthe (C) Drmarket Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) • Hopefully it will also help you avoid getting ripped off – “But the sales guy said all the smart money were pushing for allocations in the deal ...” ◦ You should be a bit more sceptical about what you hear from sales... 10 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) • So, let’s get a list – Mutual funds – Insurance companies – Banks – Hedge funds – Sovereign wealth funds – Large corporates – Central banks – Governments – Individuals – Family offices – etc. 11 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) • We’ll talk about each of these in a bit more detail – I’ll give an example of each – I tell you what (I think) they really want (aka incentives) – I’ll tell you what some of their constraints are • Mutual funds – Tracker funds (eg ETF’s) ◦ Just want lots of AUM (assets under management) ◦ Take a small annual fee (5 to 90 bp) – Actively managed (eg Fidelity Emerging Markets ) – What they really want ◦ To beat the benchmark (aka bogey), so they can get lots of AUM, so they can get lots of fees – Constraints ◦ Regulations about diversification and not using derivatives ◦ Investors pull money out when the going gets tough 12 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) • Insurance companies (eg AIG, Swiss Re) – Reinvest premiums received so as to be able to pay out claims in the future – What they really want ◦ High and predictable returns so they can fund their highand predictable liabilities – Constraints ◦ Regulations regarding capital adequacy, solvency and liquidity ◦ Price risk using actuarial principles, not really comfortable with “market price of risk” concepts 13 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) • Banks – Commercial banks (eg CBA/ASB) ◦ What they really want · Loyal depositors that will fund them cheaply · Careful borrowers that will repay their money in full and on time ◦ Constraints · Regulations, public perception (do you love your bank?), keeping up with technology, hackers 14 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) • Investment banks (eg Morgan Stanley) – What they really want ◦ Lots of P&L and bonuses · Clients buying complex products that are hard to price · “Hot” markets with lots of deals and trading (bankers are not lazy) ◦ Constraints · Regulations, public outrage, more regulations, capital ad- equacy rules, liquidity rules, compliance, risk, etc – We’ll have more to say about banks later 15 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) • Hedge funds – Big (D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Renaissance Technologies, etc.) – Others – What they really want ◦ Lots of rich investors that believe it is possible to beat the market, if only you are smart enough (the second part is not a problem for your typical HF guy) ◦ Beating the benchmark by miles so they can take the 20 part of their “2 and 20” fee – Constraints ◦ So hard to borrow money ◦ Investors pulling out money just when it is a good time to buy ◦ Irrational markets that make no sense ◦ Not really as unregulated as they used to be (SEC, Madoff scandal) 16 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) • Sovereign wealth funds – Government owned investment pools ◦ eg Superannuation Fund (NZ), Qatar Investment Authority (Oil Money), Norway Oil Fund, ◦ SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China) – What they really want ◦ Long term returns ◦ Continued government sanction for their existence ◦ Few headlines, low profile – Constraints ◦ Public perception (ethical investing) ◦ Fairly strict investment criteria, due process (it is the civil service, after all) – Are unusual in that they can afford to take the long view 17 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) • Large corporates – Investing surplus cash (Apple) – Funding their customers (GE Capital) – Hedging risk (ie FX hedging) ◦ FX = Foreign Exchange – What they really want ◦ Not to be fleeced ◦ Expertise (investments are usually not their core business) – Constraints ◦ Shareholders ◦ Lenders ◦ Understanding markets, products ◦ Not their day job, they have a real business to run 18 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) • Central banks – Manage the currency for sovereign states – Issue debt on behalf of the state – Inflation targeting – Often have some regulatory role as well – Big beasts with a lot of power ◦ Can make rules ◦ Can print money (aka Quantitative Easing) ◦ Sets the interest rate ◦ “Don’t fight the fed” 19 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) – What they really want ◦ Economic stability ◦ Manageable inflation · Low unemployment · Steady economic growth ◦ Healthy banking sector, moderately profitable, nothing too exiting – Constraints ◦ Government directed (nominally independent) ◦ Civil service process ◦ Not naturally market orientated (they have to work at it) 20 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Market participants (cont.) • Governments – Nation states (Australia) – States (Texas, or Western Australia) – Local (Auckland City Council) • Individuals – “Retail” - current & savings account, credit cards – “Mass Affluent” - own a house or two, some cars; a bit of money saved up – “High Net Worth” if their liquid assets (ie excluding properties, paintings and pets) is a million or more • Family office – If your family has serious money (say $100mn or more) – Essentially set up your own fund management company to man- age your assets – Your employees are often “High Net Worth” themselves 21 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 4 Investable assets • In other words, what you can invest in • Can break it down by – Source of risk, or – Structure • Source of risk – Equities aka stocks – Bonds / Fixed Income – Money / Currencies – Commodities – Property aka real estate – Intellectual property (Film rights, patents) 22 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Investable assets (cont.) • Structure – Cash aka underlying – Derivatives – Structured products – Funds, ETFs 23 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 5 Markets • In other words, where you go to buy or sell something • Exchanges – Mostly electronic nowadays – Equities, some bonds, some derivatives, some commodities – Liquid, transparent (but not always for all securities) • Over the counter (OTC) – Proprietary dealer systems (growing) – or Phone/Bloomberg (less common these days) – FX, some bonds, credit derivatives • Brokers – For specialised assets, like shipping capacity or wine 24 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 Markets (cont.) • “By appointment” – You have to go and find buyers (or sellers) yourself – Property, bespoke structured products • Dark pools / Block trading / Algorithmic trading / High frequency trading • Important dimensions – Liquidity (the cost of moving in and out of a position) – Depth (amount you can trade before you move the price) – Transparency (availability of price data) – Access (who can trade) – Speed (of execution) 25 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 6 How banks work • Most people have only a hazy idea of what large banking institutions do and how they are organised • In this section I aim to give you an “X-ray” view of these organisa- tions (with an Investment Bank focus) • It is important to understand how banks work – If you are planning a career in finance, you will either work for them or work with them at some point – They are intimately involved in the creation and trading of most types of financial assets 26 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 How banks work (cont.) • I’ll show you the different ways in which a bank is commonly “cut and diced” – So you can go from: ◦ “I think she works for a bank” – to: ◦ “She is an IBD Associate in the Financial Institutions Group for Deutsche Bank in London” ◦ or ◦ “She is a Director in Product Control responsible for Interest Rate Exotics at Bank of America in New York” • Lets get to work 27 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 How banks work (cont.) • Different “dimensions” of position – Rank – Office – Role – Product – Client base – Geography 28 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 How banks work (cont.) • Rank – Like most large organisations (Military, Health Care, Civil Ser- vice), banks have a fairly well established seniority structure – From bottom to top... – Analyst – Associate – Manager – Vice-President (VP) / Associate Director (AD) – Director (Can sign on behalf of the firm) – Managing Director (MD) – Executive Committee – CEO 29 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 How banks work (cont.) • Office – Historically, banks have categorised their people into different “Offices” – Front Office ◦ Deal directly with clients of the bank ◦ Some direct involvement in making money ◦ Investment banking, capital markets, trading, sales, research ◦ Most risk, most upside, hard to get in – Middle Office ◦ Control functions ◦ Check that front office are within risk limits and not stealing money or breaking rules ◦ Product control, Risk, [Accounting, Tax, Compliance] 30 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 How banks work (cont.) – Back Office ◦ Narrow definition: Operations [Ops] · Confirmations · Clearing / payments · Regulatory reporting ◦ Wider definition: includes support functions · Legal · IT · Operations · Facilities · HR 31 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 How banks work (cont.) • Role – This is what you actually do – Will obviously have some overlap with Office – Really applies to front office roles – Often split into primary and secondary • Primary (creation of new securities) – IBD (Investment Banking Division) ◦ Coverage/Origination ◦ Execution ◦ Structuring ◦ Debt Capital Markets (DCM) / Equity Capital Markets (ECM) ◦ Syndicate 32 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 How banks work (cont.) • Secondary (trading of existing securities) – Sales/Distribution – Research – Trading – Structuring 33 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 How banks work (cont.) • Product – More commonly applied to the Secondary business ◦ Traders need to understand the product they trade – Equities – Fixed Income ◦ Credit ◦ Interest Rates – FX – Commodities – Can overlay adjectives like ◦ Derivatives ◦ Structured ◦ Exotic ◦ Flow 34 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 How banks work (cont.) • Client base – More commonly applied to the Primary business ◦ Investment bankers need to understand their clients – Consumer goods / Retail – Oil & gas / Energy – Technology – Mining & minerals – Manufacturing – Defence – Healthcare / Pharma 35 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 7 The business of fund management • Its all about AUM • Good past returns makes it easier to attract new investors • Trackers (aka passive fund managers) – Boring, safe business – Invest in the benchmark assets to produce the benchmark return (less fees and tracking error) 36 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 The business of fund management (cont.) • Traditional fund managers (aka real money) – Active fund management – Sector allocation – Security selection – Try to beat the market; on the whole does not succeed. ◦ Does this mean they are not working hard enough, or they are working very hard? – Regulated (insurance, pension funds, etc) – Fee is a percentage of assets managed per year, sometimes in- clude a loading or exit fee 37 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 The business of fund management (cont.) • Alternative fund managers (aka hedge funds aka leveraged money) – Supposed to be the smart money ◦ No doubt the typical HF employee is pretty sharp; however, not sure that it helps ◦ To be more precise, not sure it helps the investor make more money – Largely unregulated, often use leverage – Usually take 2% of assets managed per year, and 20% of out- performance relative to benchmark (“2 and 20”) ◦ Think carefully about HF manager incentives vs investor pref- erences 38 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 The business of fund management (cont.) – Little evidence of return persistence ◦ There are always 5 funds that outperformed all the others ◦ Its just that they are not the same funds year to year ◦ Luck vs skill? – That said... the Medallion Fund at Renaissance Technologies generated 39% annualized after fees from 1988-2018 (and 66% before fees!) ◦ Seeen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologie sfor the full story – Some evidence that smaller funds do better than larger funds – Games hedge funds play 39 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 8 A list of books... • So you want to be an investment banker/trader/fund manager/hedgie? Absorb the culture; your holiday reading list: – Where are the customer’s yachts? (A personal favourite...) – Barbarians at the gate – Monkey business – Liar’s Poker – The Big Short – When Genius Failed – The Quants – F.I.A.S.C.O – Too Big to Fail – Straight To Hell • Want a larger list? 40 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022 A list of books... (cont.) – https://www.quantnet.com/threads/master-reading-list-forquants- mfe-financial-engineering-students.535/ • Some more serious books – A random walk down wall street (Malkiel) – Thinking, slow and fast [behavioural] (Kahneman) – Thinking strategically [game theory] (Dixit, Nalebuff) • PhD level stuff – Asset Pricing (Cochrane) – Dynamic Asset Pricing (Duffie) – Econometrics of Financial Markets (Cambell, Lo, MacKinlay) 41 FINANCE 361 Class Notes – University of Auckland – Copyright (C) Dr Paul Geertsema, 2022