Chapter 3: Money, Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate (Part 1) (Chapter 15 of the textbook) FACULTY OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS, VNU OBJECTIVE To acquire and remember the functions of money and the determinants of the money demand To understand the effects of money supply and demand on the exchange rate in the short-run CONTENT Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market The relation between money demand and supply and the exchange rate in the short-run Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Functions of Money- Money as a medium of exchange • Money is a medium of exchange, and is generally accepted as a means of payments •In a barter economy, goods were directly traded. It would take time and high cost to search for consumers or producers who need the goods •In modern economy, money is widely used as a medium of exchange, thus reducing the transaction cost and stimulating trade. Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Functions of Money- Money as a unit of account •Money is widely recognized as a measure of value •In modern economy, all prices are expressed in terms of money. •Quoting prices in terms of money makes it easy to compare prices between commodities and countries • Money prices denominated in different currencies can be translated into comparable terms using the exchange rate. Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Functions of Money- Money as a store of value • Since money is a widely recognized medium of exchange, it has a purchasing power and can be used as a store of value •Money is the most liquid asset since it can be transformed into other goods and assets without transaction costs and fees •Money sets a standard against which the liquidity of other assets is judged. Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Money supply • The money supply can be defined in broad terms of narrow terms • In a narrow term (M1), the money supply consists of high liquid assets widely used in daily transaction, that is cash and checking deposit. • In a broader term (M2), the money supply consists of M1 components and some less liquid assets such as term deposits •The supply of money is controlled by the central bank Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Money demand • The demand of money is the amount of money that individuals and organizations wish to hold for daily transactions •The demand for money depends of three factors: 1) The expected return to money (relative to other assets) 2) The degree of risk 3) The liquidity Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Money demand- Expected return to money • Currency and checking deposits pay no interest rates or only low interest rates. Other assets with less liquidity offer higher rates of return •The opportunity cost of holding money is the rate of return on other less liquid assets •When the interest rate increases, the opportunity cost of holding money rises and reduces the demand for money. Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Money demand- Degree of risk • An increase in the prices of goods and services reduces the purchasing power of money and poses a risk to the holding of money. •The inflation does not only reduce the value of money, but also the value of assets denominated in the same currency Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Money demand- Liquidity • Since money is high liquid assets that is held mainly for daily transaction •The demand for liquidity depends on the amounts of daily transaction •When the demand for daily transactions increases, people want to keep for money and the demand for money increases. Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Money demand- Aggregate money demand • The aggregate demand for money is the sum of individual demand for money by all households and firms in an economy. •The aggregate demand for money depends on three factors: 1) The interest rate 2) The price level 3) Income Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Money demand- Aggregate money demand The interest rate • A higher interest rate reduces the individual demand for money and the aggregate demand for money The price level • When inflation rates increases, people tend to spend money to purchase the same amount of goods and services, thus raising the demand for money Income • The increase in income enhance the demand for goods and services, thus raising the demand for money Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Money demand- Aggregate money demand • The aggregate demand for money can be expressed as follows: Md = P*L(Y,R) ➢P denoted for the price level ➢Y is the real income ➢R is the interest rate • The real aggregate demand for money can be written as Md / P = L (Y,R) ➢L (Y,R) is the real aggregate demand for money Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Money demand- Aggregate money demand Aggregate Real Money Demand and the Interest Rate The downward sloping real money demand schedule shows that for a given real income level Y, real money demand rise as interest rate decreases. Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Money demand- Aggregate money demand Effect on the Aggregate Real Money Demand Schedule Rise in Real Income An increase in real income from Y1 to Y2 raises the demand for real money balance at every level of the interest rates and cause the whole demand schedule to shift upward. Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Equilibrium in the money market • The condition for equilibrium in the money market 1) MS = Md 2) MS / P = L (Y,R) Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Equilibrium in the money market Determination of the Equilibrium Interest Rate • • The interest rate the brings the demand for money into the equality with the supply of money is called as the equilibrium interest rate The interest rate tends to settle at the equilibrium level • The interest rate rises if there is an excess demand for money • It falls is there is excess supply of money Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Equilibrium in the money market- Increase in the money supply Effect of an Increase in the Money Supply on the Interest Rate • • • An increase in the money supply cause the Ms schedule to shift right At the initial interest rate R1 there is an excess supply of money, putting a downward pressure on the interest rate The new equilibrium in the money market is at point 2 with lower interest rate. Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Equilibrium in the money market- Increase in the real income • • • An increase in income or output raises the demand for money ( L(R,Y) schedule shifts upward) At the initial interest rate R1, there is an excess demand for money, putting an upward pressure on the interest rate The new equilibrium in the money market is at point 2 with higher interest rate. Effect on the interest rate of a rise in real income Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium in the money market Equilibrium in the money market Supply of money: an increase in the supply of money creates an excess supply and put a downward pressure on the interest rate Income: an increase in income or output raises the demand for money and put an upward pressure on the interest rate The equilibrium interest rate is affected by the changes in the supply of money and income The relation between money demand and supply and the exchange rate in the short-run The short-run and the long-run In the short-run Prices and wage rate are sticky, and output may fall below the full-employment level In the long-run Long-run equilibrium is the position in which prices and wages have enough time to adjust to their market-clearing levels In the long-run, prices adjust in line with the money supply and output is assumed at the full-employment level The relation between money demand and supply and the exchange rate in the short-run Money, the interest rate and the exchange rate • The change in money supply can affect the short-run exchange rate through its effect on the interest rate •The change in the money supply affects the equilibrium interest rate in the money market (assume prices and output remain unchanged) •Given an expected exchange rate, the change in the interest rate affects the exchange rate through the interest parity condition. The relation between money demand and supply and the exchange rate in the short-run Money and the exchange rate linkage in money market The relation between money demand and supply and the exchange rate in the short-run Money and the exchange rate linkage in money market Simultaneous equilibrium in the money market and foreign exchange market The relation between money demand and supply and the exchange rate in the short-run Increase in the US Money Supply An increase in the US Money Supply • The expansion in the US money supply creates an excess supply of money and reduces the US interest rate • The expected return on dollardenominated assets falls due to the lower US interest rate and causes a portfolio to shift toward eurodenominated assets • The higher demand for Euro in turn causes a depreciation of the US dollar The relation between money demand and supply and the exchange rate in the short-run Increase in the the EU Money Supply Increase in the EU money supply • The expansion in the European money supply creates an excess supply of money in Europe and reduces the European interest rate • The lower European interest rate reduces the expected return on euro-denominated assets, thus lowering the demand for euro and causing a depreciation of euro against US dollar • In summary, monetary expansion in a foreign country will lead to an appreciation of domestic currency