ELEN4019 WEEK 6: Introduction to Economics Dr Martin Bekker {Below follow my personal recording notes – these are not required readings, and is only uploaded as a curtesy, in case you want to follow along. Please do not distribute this in any way.} 1. Economics’ link with politics Political Science, as you saw, generally tries to describe systems of governance, and systematically describe their inner workings. It can be pretty dry stuff – looking at voting systems or constitutional safeguards for the separation of powers. Important, to be sure, but dry. Political science, then, has little to do with the practice politics – the project-management that is government – and that is why people who study political science do not become politicians. Lawyers tend to become politicians. Trade unionists. Sometimes military men. Anyway, because of political science’s focus on describing, it generally does not advocate for policies. Differently put, as an academic discipline, it is not very prescriptive (of course, adherents of ideologies are prescriptive, they are the subject of the study, not the students themselves). Another reason for political science’s hesitancy for prescriptive content is, I think, because there are not many explicit assumptions that operate in the field. In fact, I’d say there is generally only one assumption (about human nature, or how humans tend to act) that politics hold dear. It is the statement by Lord Acton, a British politician, I think, and he said this “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power tends to corrupt absolutely”. In other words, the likelihood of your being corrupted is related to how much power you are given. And this of course is why, when there are prescriptions, they are that terms in office ought to be limited, or that power ought to be separated – i.e. that no one should be given unlimited power. [Correction – there are of course other assumptions that are held by communities of scholars, such as the tendency for liberal democracies not to go to war with each other. But these are not universally held] Economics is different. It is, in one sense, life in motion. Yes, man (read: humans) is, as Plato said, “a political animal”, but we are very much also an economic animal too. Plus, I would say, economics has more to teach us about human life than does politics. For what it’s worth, I’ve spent much more time studying politics than economics. One example I can give you is the study of wars – if you want to understand why just about any war is fought, the question is (at the very least) one of economics – who wants want. But wait, I’m getting ahead of myself. Let’s take a deep breath, and dive in. Welcome to week 6. 2. Introduction to Economics Perhaps, the first thing you need to know about economics is that it is easy to understand. One of my favourite economists insist that 95% of economics is common sense – although it is sometimes made to look difficult with the use of jargon (and mathematical equations, which scares a lot of people – luckily, not you). Just like any other profession that involves technical competence – plumbing, medicine, yes engineering – economists use words that look intimidating from the outside, and they probably like the fact that others think they are doing difficult things. Also, while people readily express their opinions about other topics related to the social sciences – politics, governance, the war in the Ukraine, gay rights, racial inequality, I could go on, heck, people have opinions on how vaccines are made when they do not grasp the very basics of pharmacology – but most people are at least a little intimidated by economics. I’d say that few people would sit in the hair salon or barbershop, or stand around the barbeque, and talk about the merits of importsubstitution, or the future of the Euro, or inequality in Asia, in the way that politics and sociology are often casually discussed. But these issues – even these exact ones I mentions just now – have a huge effect on your life and will do so, whether you take interest in it or not. This itself is a problem – people just do not know just how they are affected by the economy. They think that other things – politics, for example – drive changes. To them, I remind you of the little plaque that sat on Bill Clinton’s desk while he served as president in the US, to remind him of getting his priorities right: “it’s the economy, stupid”. I’m not saying he had his priorities right, mind. The other reason people might sometimes be intimidated by economics is because economists pretend to be “more scientific” than they are. You might call it “physics envy”, the drive for social scientist to want to sound like those in the natural sciences. But understanding the economic doesn’t require weapons-grade math, instead, the challenge is that, in many cases – there isn’t just one right answer to an economic problem (or to a social problem that we want to solve by economic interventions). This means that economics comes with all sorts of caveats, exclusions, and ‘holdings things constant’ when they talk. Because of the unpredictability of the subjects of the field (not least because humans have their own free will, unlike chemical elements or physical objects), economists constantly fail to predict realworld developments, even in areas on which they focus. So, “An economist is a man who states the obvious in terms of the incomprehensible” Alfred Knopf – that deals with the love for jargon among economists. And “An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.” Laurence J. Peter – that deals with their poor prediction powers. Still, the point is that if economics is really important, which it is, and it cannot be left to the economists only, which it shouldn’t, then it behoves us, ordinary people, to learn some economics, or at least get to know the lay of the land. That fits us well, right? As you now know by now, we approach the social sciences as a way of developing your critical faculties, for you to better understand how the world is put together, and to demystify the arguments in the social sciences. Some of them, at least. So our aim is to lift the hood on the fields, not to build any engines from scratch. 3. What do people do all day So I’m risking infuriating economists (please don’t show them this), including my wife, who is a real economist: I’m going to say that pretty much all we need to look at to understand economics is the first two pages of Richard Scarry’s great “What do people do all day” children’s book from 1968. You can see that I’m the father of a toddler, yes? Let’s read it. <perhaps you want to go to https://books4children.pl/en/what-do-people-do-all-day-specialedition-2/ click on the sample picture, and scroll right until you reach “Everyone is a worker” > Roles, Production, Trade, Exchange (or transitions of money for goods, serves or financial assets), Specialisation, Savings, Investment, Technological improvements, Goods and Services, Money, Consumption, Specialisation – it’s all there, and more. Economics: A study of people in the ordinary business of life. It enquires how he gets his income and how he uses it. Thus, it is on the one side, a study of wealth, and on the other and more important side, a study of people – Alfred Marsh. 4. Defining economics What it is: Economics is the study of people and choices What it is not: Economics not the study of money, or of getting rich, or the stock market. Nor is it a simple machine (but if you want to see it explained as if it were a simple machine, watch Ray Dalio’s ‘The economic machine’ video of YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0) Economics is the study of people and choices, thus: • • • • • Economics is the government deciding about whether to spend during a recession, and whether this will boost the overall wealth of people Economics is a company deciding to market a new product in Gauteng or, instead, in KZN Economics is you, deciding to work for the state or the private sector Economics is the government, concerned about climate change, deciding whether they should increase engine fuel efficiency requirements, or increase the cost of petrol, and Economics is a mother deciding between food for her baby or a new hairstyle Again: Economics is the study of people and choices We can conduct this study at two levels: Microeconomics – the study of individual actors. Allocations of scarce resources. Don’t have infinite amount of. Prices, markets. Bottom-up questions. Formally: “the study of the interactions of buyers and sellers in the markets for particular goods and services”. Macroeconomics – the study of the economy in aggregate. Regulate, deregulate. Tax? Top down questions. Formally: “the study of aggregates and the overall commercial output and health of nations; includes the analysis of factors such as unemployment, inflation, economic growth and interest rates”. 5. Assumptions We’re finally at the discipline’s assumptions. As I said in the introduction – economics (and economists) make predictions (and even offer recommendations) because they are rooted in assumptions about how the world works, and how humans work. Let me give you the basic five assumptions. 1. Scarcity – People have limited resources and unlimited wants. Is there enough gold to satisfy everyone in the world’s desire for all the gold they could ever want? No. But this is also true for many other things (not just gold, also goldfish!) – our needs, and certainly our desires, are massive, maybe even infinite, but resources in our households, and on earth, are limited. The word economist use for this is scarcity. Economics is based on the idea of scarcity – and maybe we wouldn’t need for this field if there wasn’t a thing such as scarcity. Brief example about caviar – scarce, not free. Labour as a resource – scarce. Water resources – becoming scarce. 2. Cost – Everything has a cost. This is obvious for buying things. Factors go into making things, or rendering services. From feminism we’re learned that even something like “caring” has a cost. But we should also think about something called “opportunity cost”. So, if I go and take a walk, that means I cannot also, at the same time, program in the lab. So I choose the one, and “pay the price” of all the other things that I cannot to (actually, economists would say the value of the next best alternative is the opportunity cost). Similarly, there’s a cost to watching this video – and it’s the cost of the video you’re not watching (maybe you can say that, even if you are paying nothing, you are paying with your time, and what else you might have done in the time). You could be watching Indiana Jones, but instead you’re watching me (or listening to music). So, there’s an important concept basked into this assumption Opportunity cost – the thing you are giving up to do by doing something else. Ok, so everything has a cost (or just about everything – there are very very few free goods, like air), and when we say “cost” we should include “opportunity cost”. 3. Incentives – people make decisions based on their own evaluation of good and bad outcomes (we make calculations / we think about what would be best for us when we make decisions). This also means that (as part of this assumption), humans are, at least to some degree, rational (so that they can do calculations about what will bring about good things, and that they do want good things to happen to them). Incentives are “internal motivators” that explain people’s choices. Why are you listening to this recording – because of incentives – you want to do well in this class (and maybe, fingers crossed, you actually even find some of this interesting). But you will not listen to this if there were no incentives. We can find incentives for anything you ever do – what you do is responding to incentives (be they instincts and natural drives, desires or calculations about desired outcomes). Thereby, economists (in government) adjust government policies based on theories, supported by data, and led by an understanding of incentives. Having the right incentives are key, but they can be very hard to figure out. Example: studying for an exam. Example: the social grant in South Africa. Example: baboons in the Cape. The minor point: when you mess up the incentives, the policy is not going to work. The main point: economists assume that we respond to incentives. 4. Things (goods and services) we use (consume) have to be made (produced). I think this needs less explanation. 5. Efficiency is gained through specialisation (The Adam Smith Example: 1 worker 20 pins, 10 workers 48 000 pins in a day). Those are the assumptions. Now, if these assumptions are true, then we need a way to evaluate our costs, to get the most from your resources – and that’s economics. That’s it. Done. The end. (Insert smiley face here). 6. Factors of production Just as there are limited assumptions, from which you can build a picture of the world (as economists do), there are also limited ‘factors of production’. In fact, there are only four. “Factors of production” is again just a strange way to say “the things that go into making something”. And what are the “somethings”, well they might be a good (the clothes you are wearing right now) or a service (I’m teaching you right now, that is a service. If I fixed cars, or have haircuts, that would be service). So the point here: if you want outputs – you need inputs. The four types of inputs, or factors of production are: land (natural resources – include water, air, energy), labour, capital (tools, machines, so on), and entrepreneurship (skills to combine the first three factors, think of it as knowledge, or expertise, more than ‘risk taking’). We might also say that, in the case of good, the outputs can either be capital good (tools to make other goods), or consumption goods (things we will use). [Sidenote: some would say that apart from goods and services, there another class of things – financial assets, but I would leave that debate aside. Money, by the way, is (for our purposes) merely a symbol of what others in your society owe you, or your claim on particular amounts of society’s resources.] Now you’re got a working definition of the field, its key assumptions, and the factors of production. We’re making good progress. Let’s take a look how thing have come to be the way they are – let’s take a look at the developing of the ‘mode of production’ or the history of economic systems. 7. History of economic systems For a very accessible and well-written introduction to the history of economics, I’d say go for pages 47-106 in “Economics, a user’s guide” by Ha-Joon Chang. My own notes: Feudalism • • When it refers to Europe, it talks about the years 1000 and 1300, but it can also refer to the system of land tenure elsewhere (even here!). Consider how Setswana tribes operated, and note the parallels. Also, don’t be fooled, there are several remnants of Feudalism in Europe today (The “Abolition of the feudal tenure act” - Scotland 2000 - and I think the island of Sark, which is a British island, is still a fief.) So, in simple terms, under Feudalism, most land belonged to a royal of sorts – like a king (or a “kgosi”, say). • • • • Next, the king parcels out lands to prominent people – “lords”, “dikgosana” (this was in exchange for military and political support). The lords rule AND give justice (so no separation of powers yet). Strong parallels everywhere. Maybe these lords parcelled out land to lesser lords (so that there might be a few layers or levels or royalty, again, in the Setswana equivalent you might have a kgosi, then dikrosana, then lower levels, so a kgotla, a kgoro, a kutle, each being smaller unit). The point is, at the end, non-nobility (ordinary people, or “peasants”, in Europe) is assigned land (which was called a “fief” in England, just good old lefatshe in Setswana). People get a measure of land tenure, by virtue of a chain that links to royalty. Peasants had to return “labour service” (which is also called ‘rent’) or some form of tribute. Again, while the details vary wildly, some version of this operated pretty much everywhere, in some form of another (the Mafisa-system is one example of how this worked in Setswana communities – sadly, we do not have time to go into that here). The point is ordinary people were required to pay taxes or tribute or coinage or a percentage of agricultural produce (this last example being the most common). Three reasons why this faded in Europe (keeping things very general) 1. Kings grew less reliant on their lords to provide soldiers (turning to professional paid soldiers) 2. Labour became more valuable. Kings lost control of the middle and lower ranks. Pandemic (the black death, in the case of Europe) meant that there were fewer workers. 3. Land became less valuable. Urbanisation and the rise of a middle class – people began moving off the land, and into towns and cities. So moving from 99% rural to 80% rural. This was a big change. Permitting some vast simplification, our next stop is Mercantilism (loosely, from the 1400s to the late 1700s). With some people in Western Europe (especially France and Britain) now loosed from their serfdom (or not working the lands for their lords), relocating to towns and cities, some of these new urbanites (but we’re talking a think slither of the population), moved beyond mere trading and banking, and into different kinds of investing. • Now trade was going on everywhere (here as well, although ours is badly documented. Again, I’d love to tell you all the details, but now’s not the time). Still, the idea of borrowing money to make something, sell it, pay the money back and keep the profit, especially related to international trade, well that really took root in China, the Middle East, and the real heart of it was in Western Europe. • To gloss, in one sentence, over something that can easily be (and sometimes is) a lifetime of study, Mercantilism is an economic policy that is designed to maximize the exports and minimize the imports for an economy, promoting imperialism, colonialism, tariffs and subsidies on traded goods to achieve that goal. • One of the things to come out of it was the invention of the joint-stock company (in England). Here, the aim was to raise more money, spread the risk – allowing for greater international trade (and killing and enslaving of people not just locally, but everywhere). Some people got very rich, yo. • Let me explain this better – let’s say that it's really bad if you lose a boat that you put all your money in (as a rich investor, right?) – but if you lost one-tenth of ten boats, well, that's not so bad. Your risk is managed. This is but one example of the inventions at the • • • time that led to the development of a middle class (a very tiny small elite), more migration to cities and another exit from agriculture (due to jobs in towns). Since I’m oversimplifying so wildly here, I might add that in England there was a civil war – and among the outcomes were more freedom to ordinary people, and less powers to the king and nobility (including the removal of some complicated licences, royal monopolies, so on). But there were many other historical changes (that, given time, we can link to trade and technological developments), leading to more efficient agriculture, , more food, better nutrition, more products, greater wealth. {If moved this up, don’t be confused} There are also other specific historically processes that took place in Britain, such as the ‘process of enclosure’ whereby landlords 'reclaimed' and privatised fields that for centuries had been held in common by multiple tenants (this increased agricultural productivity (and impoverishing tenant farmers, who lost their livelihoods and now had to work a lot harder, as labour, to make ends meet), and was also great (awful) training for the colonial process. This has the effect of increasing productivity, because taking common lands and putting it into private ownership meant that people had in today’s language, to really hustle for their livelihoods. Some countries now moved from 80% rural to roughly 50% rural, in some cases less. Now, when factories started up, there were plenty of workers around, in concentrated areas. And that brings us up to the start of capitalism Industrial capitalism was something altogether different, in scale and in practice – that just Merchants finding new ways to make money. We should also acknowledge that the industrial revolution took place – that is the transition to new manufacturing processes – which saw the emergence of factories, from about 1760 onwards. This transition included going from hand production methods to machines, new chemical manufacturing and iron production processes, the increasing use of steam power and water power, the development of machine tools and the rise of the mechanized factory system. This meant that efficiency suddenly skyrocketed, and so did the amount of goods available (at much, much cheaper prices). The Industrial Revolution also led to an unprecedented rise in the rate of population growth. [Sidenote: Of course, capitalism hit our (SA) shores with via the process of colonisation. It’s interesting to think that colonisers were generally sent as employees – Consider the roles of the Dutch East Indian Company, and later the British Southern African company. Anyway, those are the roots of capitalism. Since then, we’ve seen capitalism merge into modern capitalism (the nature of which is still the topic of hot debate) but it’s good enough for us to have gotten a feel for the changes so far.] Can we have a definition of industrial capitalism? Ok fine – Here’s Joyce Appleby: “An economic system that relies on investment of capital in machines and technology that are used to increase production of marketable goods". And modern capitalism? Yes! Here’s Wikipedia (no kidding – do as I say, not as I do): “An economic system based on the private ownership of the means of production and their operation for profit”. We should also realise that capitalism is an economic system, but it's also a cultural system – let me explain. Capitalism is a cultural system, rooted in the need for private investors to turn a profit. So the real change (away from the feudal days) was not just in how production changed, but how thinking had to change! Those who became the winners of the game has to identify opportunities, take risks, invest in unseen things, and constantly innovate (to beat the competition). Another reframing that was part of this new way of thinking was that people were actually 'consumers' and producers', and that this was/is (to the capitalist way of seeing the world) a good thing. If people desire to consume, there is a market to produce things, and these are the gears of economic growth. {there’s an audio break around here} Now we said that capitalism brought unprecedented development and wealth to the world. But, of course, it was spurred by the owners of the factories and industry findings ways to maximise profits, to extract the maximum labour from workers – so we have to admit some massive downsides - long hours (work schedules typically sixteen hours per day, six days per week), low wages, miserable working conditions, child labour (only in 1933 did Britain adopt legislation restricting the use of children under 14 in employment). [Sidenote: The International Labour Organisation estimate roughly 100 million children aged 5-11 are still required to work in a way that is child labour in the word today.] Our point – capitalism took hold, but working conditions were awful. Hours were extremely long. Th work could be dangerous. Children had to work. There were no holidays and little pay. One way in which workers responded to these conditions was to organise into labour unions. Another response, and related to this, was in the realm of ideas – queue socialism. Socialism started in France – both revolutionary and utopian socialism. Guys like Comte de Saint Simon and Charles Fourier (not related to Fast Fourier transform, don’t ask). They realised also that we weren't always rational actors, but also that our economic systems are things that have been made – not natural – and so they can be (and ought to be ) changed. There was a chap named Blaqui who had the idea of communism (and, I think, coined the term), criticising capitalism for its inherent exploitation. And then we get a minor figure you probably haven't heard about - it's Kate Moss, I mean Karl Marx. Marx was a philosopher and historian (but also one of the great classical economists, along with Adam Smith, Ricardo, and Malthus. So his great work, Das Kapital, sets out to explain the world of the 19th century in historical and philosophical terms. Marx's thinking was deep and dense, so we'll look at a few of his ideas, but not all. First, he admired capitalism for what it was able to achieve – the development, the wealth (for some). But he also saw the inequality, and the exploitation – and had the idea that capitalism will pass away, just as feudalism and mercantilism before. And that the thing that it will give way to will be mad-made, like the other systems before. Moreover, we ought to make the new system better that previous systems, it must be fair to ordinary people – in his own words – “philosophers have hitherto only interpreted the world in various ways; the point is to change it". So, let’s recap another of his ideas – class struggle. Marx believed classes (that is, the very rich, on the one side, and ordinary people, on the other) don't only struggle to make history, but the struggle is what makes classes into themselves. Through conflict, classes develop a sense of who they are, who their enemies are, and without this conflict, there is no 'class consciousness". Classes – as a reminder – is the idea of economic communities, and is understood as essentially the capitalists (the very rich) who owns most of the factors of production (land and capital), and the workers (how just have their labour to sell). Thus, there is a tension, a “struggle” (this how Marx phrased it) between capitalists, who want labour at the lowest possible price (i.e. to exploit workers to the maximum, so they themselves can maximise the outputs of their factories and thus for their own profits), while labourers wanted to be paid as much as possible, under great working conditions, for their work. Under this frame of reference, production – by which we mean the work of making things and providing services – is what gives life meaning (to Marx). Marx also believed, that, by nature, we humans are social animals, that want to work together, collaborate, and that we are more efficient when we do (and when we share resources). Adding all these factors together, it makes sense that Marx's criticism of capitalism is that it replaces this egalitarian collaboration with competition, and conflict – and thus that capitalism is not natural at all, and of course that, in the long run, that it is bad for people (of course, today, we add that it is bad for the environment). Here lies the rub – just as we cannot but take capitalism very seriously, this is why we should take Marxism seriously today (despite how badly it has been implemented in every single case): The idea of protecting the collective interest remains powerful and important. Finally, as I already intimated, Marx believed that just as Capitalism replaced Feudalism (via Mercantilism), so Socialism will replace capitalism, globally. Now, as you well know, that hasn't happened. We see today that capitalism has won out, so to speak (think about Fukuyama and 'the end of history', right?). Many people will say that the benefits from continued innovation imply that capitalism's victory is a good thing. I mean, not Greta Thunberg, I mean Patrice Motsepe. Finally though on this development (for now). Where would we say we are today? Well, we (most countries) generally use socialist principles, to regulate free markets. We see progressive taxation, subsidised education and, if we are lucky, state healthcare. 8. Positive and Normative statements We said that economists are prone to slip into not only predictions, where famously, they provide respectability to astrologers – but that they also make policy recommendations. Our national treasury, for example, is staffed by several ([I’m legally obliged to say] very smart) economists. Did you say they make recommendations? Yes, they do, and this, of course means that they trade in evaluative statements, or, in language we have used before in our course, “oughts”. When Economists talk about this, they distinguish between what they call positive statements and normative statements. We are not phased, since we’ve seen this movie before: they are just the “is” and “ought” we’ve grown familiar with over the past month or so. When thinking whether a statement is normative or not, it is handy to remember how we broke down a moral claim into its sub-components (using the principles we learned from the introduction to logic). We said that there is at least one factual premise and one moral (or normative) premise lurking in the background. One consideration that you might want to add is whether a statement can be tested for veracity. If it can be tested, it is positive, if it cannot be tested, well, that’s opinion or ideology speaking, in other words, it’s normative. Let me show you. So, what would you say about each one – positive or normative? - paying people who aren’t working, even though they could work, is wrong and unfair N - programmes like welfare reduce the incentive for people to work P - Raising taxes on the wealthy to pay for government programs grows the economy P - Raising taxes on the wealthy slows economics growth P - The government should raise taxes on the wealthy to pay for helping the poor N - If the government spends money during a recession, this will boost the overall wealth of people P - A company should launch their new product in Gauteng , because it was more people N - It is better for the poor if the state invests in the private sector than in the public sector P - The government should increase requirements for fuel efficiency of engines if they want to fight climate change N {That’s it for now. Good for you for hanging in there.} 9. Bonus: Three basic definition recaps Economics is the study of is the study of people and choices, of how individuals and societies choose to allocate scarce resources, why they choose to allocate them that way, and the consequences of those decisions. Scarcity is sometimes considered the basic problem of economics. Resources are scarce because we live in a world in which humans’ wants are infinite but the land, labour, and capital required to satisfy those wants are limited. This conflict between society’s unlimited wants and our limited resources means choices must be made when deciding how to allocate scarce resources. Incentives are the rewards or punishments associated with a possible action; agents make decisions based on incentives. This implies a measure of rational decision making , whereby an economic agent is “rational” if they use all available information to choose an action that makes them as well off as possible; economic models tend to assume that agents are rational.