Mergers and Acquisitions ECOM095 Lecture 2 of 5 Jesse McDougall Visiting Professor, Queen Mary, University of London jessewren@gmail.com https://amzn.to/2T0BEYx • Chapter 12 – M&A Modeling – Accretion / Dilution Modeling https://amzn.to/2T0BEYx News on Dual-Class Shares • Hong Kong and Singaporean exchanges are trying to attract Dual-Class shares listings • Hong Kong recently announced ability of “innovative” companies to list with dual-class • Singapore followed suit announcing they would allow dual-class listings later this year • Trying to attract bigger IPOs • (FTSE Russell excluded Snap from its indices) • Tech and family-owned businesses prefer dual-class News on PUBLIC/PRIVATE • SEC hoping to spur IPO activity, increase incentives for firms to go public, instead of remaining private • May allow public firms to ban shareholder lawsuits, require arbitration to settle investor disputes • Arbitration = lower cost, lower publicity • Combatting a 2 decade slump in stock listings • Right to sue considered critical protection against fraud and securities violations More on PUBLIC/PRIVATE • SEC commissioner considers making IPOs more attractive his top goal in the role • Announced SEC would allow firms to confidentially file their proposed IPO share structures (previously only allowed for very small firms) • Arbitration theoretically v unpopular with Investor Lobby Groups and Democrats • Conversely, class action lawsuits are considered a major weight on the US economy M&A Synergies Synergies • If Company A could be worth 40% more than it is currently worth, if newly held under the management team and structure of Company B • Company B can afford to pay Company A shareholders a ~30% premium on their current share price to buy Co A • Both parties better off than previously, assets more efficiently utilised Sources of Synergies • Cost savings • Unused tax benefits • Debt capacity (larger entity able to borrow more, cost of debt cheaper than equity) • Cross-selling / marketing synergies Synergies in Practice • Tend to be hugely overestimated! Rarely realised in practice.... • Result? Failure to Realise Synergies • Academic research demonstrates serially acquisitive companies often underperform less-acquisitive corporate peers • If you pay 30% premiums frequently enough for targets, and fail to realise synergies, you are undertaking a valuelosing strategy! • Often integration (HR, IT) problems overwhelm potentially realisably synergies Financial Services Failed Synergies • Main assets of financial services firms are the staff – upset staff often leave • Extensive client losses in relationship-driven areas like Wealth Management M&A Deal Structures Deal Structures • All Cash Offers • Cash & Share Offers • All Share Offers Deal Payment Structure Rationale • All Cash Offers – acquiring company has cash on hand, or can easily raise it in the debt-markets to fund the purchase • Cash & Share Offers • All Share Offers – acquiror may not have cash on hand, or the ability to raise it in debt-markets, or may have HIGHLY VALUED share price at time of acq’n! (Buffett) Share for Share Deals • Fixed or Floating Share for Share Consideration • Fixed eg. 1 acquiror share for every 3 tgt • Floating eg. Floating acquiror shares number for each target share, but ensures DOLLAR amount of offer to target s/hs • (Floating more common for BIG offerors) Collar Arrangements • Floating Share for Share Consideration within a range, guaranteeing a minimum and maximum dollar value to targets • Precise number of acquiror shares target shareholders will receive unknown until the final day, but dollar return is within a known range Investment Banking Innovation Tax Innovation in M&A • Recent theme of large US, cross-border mergers is a primary motivator being “tax inversions” • US-domiciled company reincorporates postmerger in the lower tax-regime domicile, saving / earning them huge discrepancies in tax outflows Government Axing Tax-based Deals • US politicians noting a series of large deals which would severely reduce US tax revenues introduced new tax regulations that took away most of the benefits associated with overseas relocations. • Three of the 5 inversions announced before the 2015 legislation collapsed Tax Inversions – Mylan Case Study • Moved from Pennsylvania to the Netherlands by acquiring a subsidiary of Abbott Labs in the Netherlands, then relocated to be tax-based there • BUT there are worse governance rules in the Netherlands • Teva Pharma tried to purchase Mylan, Mylan invoked defenses relating to Netherlands corporate governance rules, Mylan shareholders (largely US-based) furious at loss of shareholder rights – Mylan management ignoring shareholders wishing to sell to Teva • SEC created new rule requiring s/h approval of all governance changes in an inversion scenario Hostile M&A, Unsolicited Transactions “Hostile” vs. “Friendly” Deals • Agreed or “friendly” deals vs “hostile” deals • Hostile = target mgmt does not want to be bought out, do not agree to takeover terms • If deal put forward to shareholders “hostile”, if majority tender in, target management loses • Some i-banks and boutiques used to refuse to work on hostile deals • Merger arbitrageurs more wary of “hostile” deals, high failure withdrawal rate GKN Transaction • Largest UK hostile bid ever • Engineering firm GKN rejected a £8 billion offer from Melrose, calling the offer “fake”, and an attempt to take GKN over using its own shareholders’ money Takeover Defenses • List of strategies companies employ to defend against unwanted takeover offers – Poison pills – Scorched earth policies – Lobster traps (convertible bond creeping offers) – Staggered boards – Supermajority amendments (requiring huge majorities to enact changes of control) – Golden parachutes – Greenmail Poison Pill Defense • AKA Shareholder rights plan = defense plan taken by corporate boards against unwanted takeover offers (involves new share issuance) • Attempts to prevent buyers from negotiating directly with shareholders, try to force bidders to negotiate with Board • Makes acq’n much more costly, dilution new shs • Illegal in the UK, uncommon in EU • Unusual, but not eradiated in the US Golden Parachute • Agreed payment to executives in the case of terminated employment as result of a takeover • Often lowers premiums received by regular shareholders in an eventual takeover • Harvard paper 2010 found GPs to be valuedestructive for companies from adoption fwd • Research in this area could easily be worked into a good Corporate Governance PhD topic! Golden Parachutes • Top 10 U.S. Mergers are netting CEOs of those companies Golden Parachutes of $430 million!! • http://www.inc.com/associated-press/ceosreceive-430-million-from-mergers-study.html Hostile Deal Example from 2013 • Not all Hostile deals involve entrenched management practicing poor Corporate Governance! • Elan, a pharmaceutical company in Ireland, successfully avoided being taken over in a hostile bid by Royalty Pharm for $6.7 billion • Elan quickly put itself up for sale and achieved a valuation of $8.6 billion from an alternative buyer, Perrigo Legal, Regulatory effects on M&A Anti-Competitive Deals • US Anti-trust legislation was introduced in 1840 - 1914 to combat monopoly activities • Large Oil cos and Banks broken up (Standard Oil into Exxon, Amoco, & Mobil. House of Morgan JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Guaranty & Trust) • And... Restricts M&A where it can substantially lessen competition Anti-Competition Example • In addition to the famous cartel break-ups of the early 1900s, the US and EU laws remain powerful elements in M&A practice • In 2012, Hertz bought Dollar Thrifty for $2.3 billion, the US Justice Department forced it to sell its Advantage rent-a-car division as an “antitrust remedy”, which 1 year later went bankrupt as a solo entity! Regulatory Hurdle Example • Jan 2016 Banking acquisition: KeyCorp to buy First Niagara Financial Group for $4.1 billion, announced deal Oct 2015 • State of New York governor arguing the deal creates an anti-competitive banking marketplace in Upstate New York, would harm the state with expected job cuts • KeyCorp Merger Article 18 Jan 2016 Regional M&A Differences • Different legal frameworks crossborder • Some governments protect more (or less) of their local industries – prohibit or impede certain industrial deals (ArcelorMittal labour example. National security examples. Resource control examples) • Anti-competitive / Anti-trust rules US. vs. European Deals • UK deals require financing to be secured pre-deal-announcement (not in the US) • UK has predetermined timeframes under the “City Code of Takeovers and Mergers” http://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/ • Each European country has different takeover “majority threshold” Profound Geog. Implications... • As a result of pre-deal-announcement financing requirement in the UK... • Bankers must secure pre-announcement indications from institutional investors as to their interest in Secondary Equity (Rights) or Debt Offerings to finance M&A • M&A in Europe has much more “pre-deal” trading activity and deal rumours than US Deal Closure Risk How do Deals Fail to Close? • Buyer fails to secure adequate Financing • Counterbidders win out • Target due diligence, Nat. disasters (MACs) time is the enemy of deals closing • Fails to pass anti-competition rulings • Government blocking • Target s/hs do not take the offer up • Acquiror s/hs revolt (much more rare) How do Deals “Fail” Post-Closure? • Poor integration • Synergies unrealised (value-destroying M&A) • IT integration fails • HR / cultural breakdown • Losses of large numbers of disgruntled staff • Customers disgruntled, shift to competitors • Many targets quietly divested years later... Quiet Divestiture Example… *Google buys Motorola for $12.4 B (2012)* • Lenovo to buy Google’s Motorola handset unit for $2.9 B (2014) • Twitter ablaze $GOOG wasted $9 B s/h value • But... had sold the set-top business, and likely held most of the 17,000 PATENTS Roles, Research Ancillary Roles • Lawyers excl. to M&A documentation, advice • Crossborder law particularly well-paid, specialist http://dealbook.nytimes.com/category/columnists/deal-professor/ • Subscription websites for timely, detailed M&A information / risk of deal failures $$$ • Sales / research at i-banks & brokerages offering exclusively M&A info knowledge to Hedge Funds who trade Merger Arbitrage • Journalism focused entirely on M&A PhD Research Ideas • Track M&A (or IPO / secondary offering and debt-offerings) fees over time – Track also at i-banks vs. Boutiques (covert “balancesheet use” at large banks) • Long term share price performance of highly acquisitive vs. non-acquisitive companies • Realised synergy analysis (by industry or on all deals over 5 year timeframe in one geography) • Share price performance of companies who adopt Takeover Defense Strategies Merger Modelling Models to Employ • Accretion / Dilution Merger model • • • • DCF Comparative Valuations Precedent Transactions Analysis Sum-of-the-Parts Analysis This week Next week Valuation Goals • Seeking to undertake ACCRETIVE transactions.... Earnings under combined entity > Per-Share • This goal is non-negotiable – if all of your modeling work does not yield an accretive transaction, you should always advise your client against pursuing it • No “strategic” substitutes. Ultimately strategic benefits MUST lead to tangible ACCRETION that flows into the numbers, modelled financially Formatting • Formatting incredibly important in i-banking! • • • • Commonly use blue text for INPUTS Black text for CALCULATED NUMBERS Green text for links to other sheets Red text for cells needing more attention, to return back to... • Naming important cells like “tgt_shpx” Accretion/Dilution Model Merger Model First Step • Collect market data from Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Google Finance (or other sources) • Collect corporate info on both Acquiring and Target firms (from EDGAR company filings) EVs for Acquiror and Target. EV = Debt + Equity Include all debt, all convertible securities, all forms of equity, common share classes, warrants, preferred shares Calculate Enterprise Values MARKET VALUE OF EQUITY on listed share price DEBT VALUE from most recent balance sheet (unless it is trading away from par) OTHER SECURITIES? Preferred shares + ? FDSO – Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding FDSO = Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding A Note on Fully Diluted Shares... Important to calculate FULLY DILUTED figure, often materially higher than basic! Most employee/mgmt options will convert in event of a merger Basic Shares Outstanding + exercise of ITM options – repurchased shares ITM options conversion $ used to repurchase shares in the market Convertible bonds need to be analysed (if applicable) Errors in Equity Valuations • Key error source • Look for all sources of dilution – employee share option tables, convertible securities Need an options table for each company (assuming they each have some employee share options outstanding) • Include unvested, mergers cause shares to vest Goldman Sachs advised Tibco Software in its acquisition by Vista Equity Partners Fully Diluted Shares Mistake! Goldman miscalculated the number of Tibco shares outstanding on a spreadsheet given to Vista. Vista bid $4.2 billion but ended up paying $100 million less because of a share count error by Goldman staff Deal in Autumn 2014, in court through early 2016, result: GS paying Tibco investors $30 mil Deal terms: cash, shares, or combination Cost of debt, if used to finance transaction Deal Assumptions Advisory fees Synergy assumptions ASSUMPTIONS need to be input such that they flow through model as you modify / flex them If both companies have identical year-ends, GREAT! Align Date Timeframes If not, need to adjust to have the same year end in your model (luckily US companies report quarterly) US companies report quarterly (10Q filings), and then a bigger filing annually (10K filing) Dates • LTM = TTM • Trailing 12 month period of historical reported / available information, often not a full calendar fiscal year... • Use most current information available, but may have to do TTM calcs Acquiror’s Financial Information • Input historical income statement data for a couple of years • “Actual” Financial from historical years’ data typically noted as 220A, 2021A, 2022A Adjust to Cash Figures • Convert data from public filings, which are in GAAP accounting format, into cash figures • Subtract depreciation & amortisation (accounting measures, not cash figures) • Add capital expenditures (capex is more variable and lumpy than D&A, but is cash) • Capex and D&A must converge over time (and in your model) • Subtract employee stock comp (non-cash) Percentages of Interest • Analyse the % change Year over Year of each of the key figures in the Income Statement – Revenues – Cost of Goods Sold – Selling General & Administrative – EBITDA – Depreciation & Amortisation (D&A) – Capital Expenditures (Capex) – Employee Share Compensation – Earnings per Share (EPS) Helps analyse growth! Growing Revenues? Decreasing costs over time? What is the trajectory of the income statement implying about the company’s prospects? Model Forward in Time • Project acquiror’s income stmt for 5-10 years • “Projected” or “Estimated” years noted as 2023E, 2024E, 2025E or 2023P, 2024, 2025P • Sources: – Investment bank research analyst reports – Bloomberg consensus estimates Logic of long-term growth. Extremely difficult to grow – Company IR dep’t, conf calls at double-digits for – Your own projections consecutive decades… Growth Modelling Stable growth Growth, g One stage growth Time g Two stage growth High g Stable Time g Three stage growth High g Transition Stable Time Target’s Financial Information • Input target’s historical income statement data for a couple of years • Convert to CASH (from accounting measures) • Calculate and analyse growth through P&L • Project income statement for 5-10 years using ibank research, Bloomberg consensus data, your own projections Same work you have just performed for the Acquiror’s income statements Shortcuts / Keystroke Functions • • • • • • • • • • • • Ctrl + Home (brings you to the A1 cell of tab) Ctrl+PgUp or Ctrl+PgDn moves between tabs Ctrl+arrows brings you to edges of blocks of data Shift+Spacebar highlights a row (Ctl+- delete row) Ctrl+Spacebar highlights a column Alt+T+U+D (Trace dependents, if any) Ctrl+Z Undo Alt+E+R Redo Ctrl+C, V, and X. Copy, Paste, and Cut Ctrl+F and H. Find and Replace Ctrl+1 brings up cell formatting menu Ctrl+¬ shows all formulas as formulas, not results Synergies • • • • • COGS SG&A Revenue Tax Borrowing capacity? • Depending on the businesses being combined you can forecast how synergies might arise Synergies – Horizontal Mergers • Synergies arise from economies or scale (reduced costs) or from increased market power (increasing profit margins and sales) Synergies –Vertical Mergers • When a firm buys its supplier or distributor, synergies arise from greater control over chain of production (weighed against loss of efficiency from a captive supplier who is less incentivised to reduce costs / compete with other suppliers) Synergy Examples • • • • • • • • • • Drug companies combine reduce R&D costs Headcount reduction, competitors combine Eliminating surplus stores or factories IT, accounting, marketing across larger business Greater purchasing power with suppliers Marketing / selling complementary products Cross-selling to new customer base Share distribution channels, access new markets Tax benefits Enhanced debt capacity in larger entity Tax Rates • Apply acquiror’s tax rate to overall entity • First apply tgt’s tax rate to the target’s financial model, to ensure your numbers are sensible / matching with GAAP accounting, then apply acquiror’s rate since this is what will apply on a forward basis Balance Sheets • Create a tab with the main Balance Sheet information from both the Acquiring company and the Target company’s • The most recent information on assets and liabilities for each company Cost of New Debt? • If Acquiror finances with cash, but doesn’t have sufficient cash on its balance sheet… • Needs to issue bonds to fund the purchase • Look for Yield to Maturity of currently outstanding bond issuances as a proxy for cost of raising debt in the market now (Bloomberg) • This interest rate will figure in as a cost to the pro forma income statements Pro Forma Income Statements • Incorporate synergies into combined, projected income statement of post-closure hypothetical merged entity Model in Flexibility to your Excel Analyse Various Target Stock Prices • Ensure your model can illustrate the resulting accretion / dilution for a range of potential Offer Proposal Prices for your Target Stock Price Flex Means of Payment • Ensure your model can illustrate the resulting accretion / dilution with different means of payment • How does the deal look if the acquiror pays all $ ? • All Stock ? • A mix ? Deal Consideration vs. Final Capital Structure • Ensure the deal consideration proposed leaves the combined entity with a logical capital structure • One in keeping with its peer group, and / or • Logical for its leverage ratios or potential covenant breaches Synergies Flexibility • Leaving all else equal for a moment, ensure your model can illustrate what level of synergies would be required for your deal to breakeven in terms of being 0% accretive/dilutive All Shares • Incremental cost relating to the transaction is the advisory/transaction fees (Acquiring co issues brand new shares to exchange for target’s shares, dilutes the existing Acquiror shareholders’ stakes, but offset by taking over the assets & liabilities of the Target) All Cash Costs are: • Interest on debt raised to fund the cash purchase (or loss of interest income on cash held on balance sheet used to fund cash purchase) • PLUS • Advisory / transaction fees Sources & Uses of Cash • Where you determine how to pay for the deal • Considers buyer’s cash, target’s cash, financing fees, advisory fees, debt if retired upon transaction, debt if issuing to raise funds, secondary offering if undertaking to fund transaction Sources MUST EQUAL Uses • Uses: Target equity costs (common & preferred &…) + Target debt instruments (sometimes roll in) + Advisory fees = Total Usage • Sources: Acquiror’s shares (if paying with or partly with shares) + Acquiror’s cash (if paying with or partly with cash) + Target debt assumed (if rolled into Acquiror post-acq’n) = Total Sources Premiums Analysis Stock % Premiums Analysis • Evaluate what levels of stock price premium your potential acquisition requires to be viable and / or acceptable to target shareholders and to be accretive to the acquiror (if all of these constraints can be met simultaneously, with reasonable synergies assumptions) Example in the News • Tobacco acquisition annc’d Jan 2017 • British American Tobacco buying the residual 60% stake in Reynolds American for $49 billion • 26% premium over “clean” price of Reynolds • $400 million of annual savings by year 3 • $1bn breakup fee Big Premium in the News • Cancer drug deal • Takeda buying Ariad • Paying 75% premium! Premiums often cited… • A long time ago I analysed a long time series of deal premiums • Found 30% to be a rough average • But in reality it can be as low as 5% or as high as well over 100% • Really depends on the deal, how attractive the synergies are, if there are multiple potential bidders, how entrenched owners/mgrs are Scenario Analysis of Purchase • Compare a range purchase prices to analyse: – Premiums offered at different purchase prices – Multiples of Revenues, EBITDA, EBIT, P/E ratios at different potential purchase prices • Compare these premiums and multiples to recent industry transactions • Compare the premium to a recent range of the Target’s traded share price Deal with Excessive Multiples! • Cisco offered to buy AppDynamics for $3.7 bn • AppDynamics was about to do its IPO, with the high end of the pricing range just over $2bn • Buyer having slow growth, tgt very high growth (50% per annum!) • Multiple paid of 12x Revenue vs. peer Relic (similar g) valued at 5x Revenues • Partly a story about perceived scarcity in tech Purchase Share Price Range • Compared to a historical graph of the target’s share price… • Will shareholders consider this an attractive premium over the recent trading range? • Will it be deemed opportunistic if the sh px recently and for a long time traded well above the intended bid price? • Premium over a sensible (no bid premium, no rumour premium) CLEAN price? Purchase Share Price Range 50% drop! Sh Px Last 12 Months Deal Announcement 5%, 20%, 30% premiums seems opportunistic, insulting ? % premium is psychologically quite attractive Last 12 Months Deal Announcement Shareholder Analysis Shareholder Analysis • Take a look at who the largest shareholders are of a company • Bloomberg has some functions that help with this: HDS and PHDS (Holdings and Primary Holdings) • Large institutional (passive) holdings? Activists? Founders / owners / management? • May impact your feasibility discussion Shares Volume Traded Analysis • Analyse the weighted average share price from the past [year] • This can help to ascertain potential entry prices investors are “pinned” to Shareholder Analysis 6,000 46.3% Share Volume Traded (in '000s) 5,000 4,000 3,000 18.8% 2,000 15.9% 11.1% 7.7% 1,000 0.2% 0 $17.50 - $19.50 $19.51 - $21.50 $21.51 - $23.50 $23.51 - $25.50 Per Share Price Range $25.51 - $27.50 $27.51 - $29.50 Accounting Adjustments Good Accounting Background • Figures from Financial Statements and from the CFO / Treasury of companies must often be “adjusted” to exclude one-time only cash outflows / inflows and “non-recurring” items • Some facility and understanding of these is crucial / very commonly used here to achieve “normalised” figures to calculate historical growth, estimate future growth One-off adjustments • Financial statements are frequently adjusted to exclude “one-off” line items in historicals • If a company recently sold a business, or endured a write-down of historical asset values, these items are not expected to recur in upcoming financial years, so should be excluded from figures you are hoping to estimate in forward ongoing / growth data • One major source of CASH vs. ADJ differentials Sidebar on Adjustments! • Cash vs. accounting based metrics • Historical analysis of “cash taxes paid” vs. taxable income declared reveals many fraudulent companies have large discrepancies between these two figures • Gist is that fraudulent companies don’t want to pay real, cash taxes on income they haven’t really earned... • Where these deviate heavily, warrants analysis Accretion / Dilution Accretive / Dilutive? • Goal once created Pro Forma Financials is to show if the transaction is accretive or dilutive to the Acquiror in the years after the transaction closes • This will vary depending on payment method (all cash, or all shares) • All-stock only costs are advisory/txn fees • All-cash usually includes incremental interest costs to fund the transaction Accretive Transactions... • Accretion “arbitrage”... • High growth co buys low growth co, tries to have its high growth multiple applied to overall entity instant accretion! • Co A with 20x P/E and E of $100 m buys Co T with 15x P/E and E of $25 m • Combined earnings value $125 m, hoping market values at 20x P/E under A’s mgmt... • In practice, analysts will see the low g assets and value combined entity at 2375/125=19x Other Methods • Notice that a merger model gives in essence a “relative” valuation, by indicating the accretion to the buyer • If the buyer’s stock is well over-valued by the market, and the target’s stock is also overvalued (but less so), a merger model might indicate it is highly accretive to buy the target, but note that the target is still over-valued! • Therefore, one also always looks at other valuation metrics in a purchase process M&A Pitchbooks Pitchbook • Main output in a tangible sense is a pitchbook • Powerpoint deck printed & bound to bring to client meetings • Includes strategy ideas, modelling outputs, sensitivity analyses, merger proposal details Advisor to Acquiror • For the Project, take the position of a Hypothetical Advisor to Acquiring Firm • One valid option is that you run all the analysis and you advise them NOT to purchase if it isn’t attractive enough for the Acquiror! • Take the position of genuinely providing the best advice given your analysis Next Lectures • Week 3: Valuation beyond Accretion, LBOs • Week 4: The trading side of announced deals, merger arbitrage • Week 5: HF Strategies, SPACs vs. Direct Listings, Project Finance vs. Corporate Finance, Final Exam Review Best email to contact me on: jessewren@gmail.com