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The GBP is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins | Forexlive
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GMT 20:24:23 LON 21:24:23 NY 16:24:23
Technical Analysis
TKYO 05:24:23 SYD 06:24:23
The GBP is the strongest and the USD is the
weakest as the NA session begins
.
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Greg Michalowski
Tuesday, 30/05/2023 | 12:15 GMT-0
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The GBP is the strongest and the USD is the weakest
After a long holiday weekend in a number of countries on Monday, and a
conclusion of the debt ceiling negotiations over the weekend, the GBP is
the strongest and the USD is the weakest at the start of the North American
session. US yields are lower despite the thought that the Fed is more
inclined to now tighten especially after the higher core PCE in�ation on
Friday (the Fed's favored measure of in�ation, but they may skip too and
revisit in July). Stocks are mixed with the Dow trading above and below
unchanged. The Nasdaq is higher. Oil is lower despite the lower yields and
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lower USD. Worries about China's lackluster recovery have the price falling
in trading today
USDJPY left to right chart bias
is still to the upside. 50%
retracement holds support.
What next in Washington?
US April PCE core in�ation
4.7% vs 4.6% expected
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Cliff Asness, AQR
Managing Principal and
5/30/2023, 8:25 PM
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CIO, says…
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The U.S. House Rules Committee
set to review the recently proposed debt
ceiling deal, which has sparked disagreement among some conservatives
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seeking deeper spending cuts. Meanwhile, the most left Democrats are
displeased with President Biden's concessions. However, both Biden and
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy expect Congressional approval
before the critical deadline of June 5 (or hope) This anticipation boosted US
stock futures in the premarket, following the closure yesterday for
Memorial Day.
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HP Inc is set to announce its Q2 earnings after a post-pandemic dip in PC
demand, with projections suggesting a decrease in revenue. Other earnings
this week includes CrowdStrike, Salesforce on Wednesday after the close,
and Broadom, Lululemon, and Dell on Thursday. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood,
founder of ARK Investment Management, voiced skepticism over Nvidia's
ambitious sales target for 2023. Wood had previously divested her Nvidia
holdings from the ARK Innovation ETF earlier in the year. Nvidia shares are
trading at $404.50 up $15.12 or 3.88% in premarket trading. The market
capitalization on Friday reached $961.96 billion and is above $1T in premarket trading. HMMMM?
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Gediminas Šimkus was
speaking this morning and expects two 25 basis points rate hikes in June
and July. Despite the �uidity of the current economic situation, he predicts
a pause in rate hikes following these two increases. The market is
anticipating a peak in rates at approximately 3.68%, which aligns with
Šimkus's outlook of at least two more rate hikes.
The USDJPY moved to the highest level since November 23 earlier today.
Japan's top currency diplomat, Kanda, emphasized the importance of
stable currency movements that re�ect economic fundamentals, following
an emergency meeting with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Ministry of Finance
(MOF), and Financial Services Agency (FSA). He said, that while not
focusing on speci�c forex levels, they closely observe forex movements
and will react as necessary. Kanda also indicated that matters such as the
U.S. debt ceiling were discussed in the meeting. Following Kanda's
remarks, the USD/JPY (after initially moving higher) has seen a move to
the downside and is falling back below the 100-hour MA at 139.926 for the
�rst time since May 12 (there was a brief peak below the MA on May 24 but
that was quickly reversed). Although these comments hint at potential
interventions, Kanda suggests that such measures are not immediately
necessary.
Financial Markets by TradingView
•
USDJPY falls below the 100 hour MA
Today:
• At 9:00am:
◦ The Housing Price Index (HPI) month over month (m/m) is expected
to show an increase of 0.2%, lower than the previous increase of
0.5%.
◦ The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index (HPI) year
over year (y/y) is expected to decrease by 1.7%, a sharp decline from
the previous increase of 0.4%.
• At 10:00am:
◦ The Conference Board (CB) Consumer Con�dence Index is expected to
come in at 99.1, lower than the last recorded �gure of 101.3.
Remember, on Friday the US jobs report will be released. The JOLTs data
will be released tomorrow. The Challenger layo�s and the ADP
5/30/2023, 8:25 PM
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employment report will be released on Thursday ahead of the BLS numbers
theexpected
website...
on Friday. Nonfarm paySearch
jobs are
show a gain of 190K on Friday
versus 253K last month.
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A snapshot of the markets is showing:
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• Crude oil is trading -$0.72 or -1% at $71.94
• Gold is trading up $17.40 or 0.90% at $1961.31
• Silver is trading up $0.18 or 0.79% at $23.22
• Bitcoin is trading higher from Friday ($26,718). The price currently
trades at $28,021
in the pre-market for US stocks, the major indices are mixed:
• Dow industrial average -6.34 points after Friday's 328.69 point rise
• S&P index up 26.7 points after Friday's 54.17-point rise. The S&P index
closed above its 100-week moving average on Friday at 4200.26
• NASDAQ index is up 221 points after Friday's 277.59-point rise.
In the European equity markets, the major indices are mixed:
• German DAX +0.49%
• France's CAC -0.37%
• UK's FTSE 100 -0.49%
• Spain's Ibex +0.54%
• Italy's FTSE MIB +0.65%
Japan's Nikkei index closed up 0.3% at a new high going back to 1990
in the US debt market:
• 2 year yield 4.503% -8.5 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.838% -11.2 basis points
• 10 year yield 3.711% -10.9 basis points
• 30 year yield 3.895% -8.1 basis points
in the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are also
trading lower.
Europe
European benchmark 10 year yields are lower
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5/30/2023, 8:25 PM
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GBPUSD Technical Analysis - Shift in Sentiment
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US dollar sinks further as Treasury yields drop
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US April PCE core in�ation 4.7% vs 4.6% expected
ICYMI: IMF has told the Federal Reserve to hike more, and quickly, and
then hold 'em high
NASDAQ index trades brie�y in negative territory. Bounces
Dollar gets to work in the new week
China declined a US request to meet with Secretary of Defense Lloyd
Austin
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5/30/2023, 8:25 PM
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