INDE8900-30 Production Analysis Summer 2023 Prof: Dr. Darwish Alami, PhD., P. Eng. GA: Ebrahim Pichka May 15, 2023 1 Syllabus and Topic Areas in Operations Analysis • • • • • • • • • • • • Forecasting Sales and Operations Planning Inventory Control: Deterministic Environments Inventory Control: Stochastic Environments Supply Chain Management Service Operations Management Production Control Systems: MRP and JIT Operations Scheduling Project Scheduling Facilities Planning Quality and Assurance Maintenance and Reliability Chapter 1. Strategy and Competition Marketing Operations Finance Functional Areas of the Firm Time Horizons for Strategic Decisions 1. Long Term Decisions – Locating and Sizing New Facilities – Finding New Markets for Products – Mission Statement: meeting quality objectives 2. Intermediate Term Decisions – – – – Forecasting Product Demand Determining Manpower Needs Setting Channels of Distribution Equipment Purchases and Maintenance 3. Short Term Decisions – Purchasing – Shift Scheduling – Inventory Control Strategic Dimensions • • • • Quality Delivery speed Delivery reliability Flexibility History of POM • Major Thrust of the Industrial Revolution 1850-1890. – Factories tended to be small. Boss had total control. Little regard for workers safety or workers rights. • Production Manager Position. 1890-1920. – Frederick Taylor champions the idea of “scientific management”. • As complexity grows specializations take hold. – – – – Inventory Control Manager Purchasing Manager Scheduling Supervisor Quality Control Manager etc. Global Competition Global competition is heating up to an unprecedented degree. It appears that several factors favor the success of some industries in some countries: For example: Germany: printing presses, luxury cars, chemicals Switzerland: pharmaceuticals, chocolate Sweden: heavy trucks, mining equipment United States: personal computers, software, entertainment Japan: automobiles, consumer electronics Porter’s Thesis Famed management guru, Michael Porter, has developed a theory to explain the determinants of national competitive advantage. These include: • Factor Conditions (Land, Labour, Capital, etc.) • Demand Conditions (local marketplace may be more sophisticated/demanding than world marketplace) • Related and Supporting Industries • Firm Strategy, structure, rivalry (e.g.: Germans are strong technically, Italian family structure, Japanese management methods) Business Process Re-engineering The process of taking a cold hard look at the way that things are done. Term coined by Hammer and Champy in their 1993 book. Classic Example: IBM Credit Corporation. The process had been broken down to a series of multiple steps, each having substantial delays. Approval required from 6 days to 2 weeks. The process was re-engineered so that a single specialist would handle a request from beginning to end. The result was that turnaround time was slashed to an average of 4 hours! BPR Principles • • • • • Several jobs are combined into one Workers make decisions The steps in the process are performed in a natural order Processes should have multiple versions Work is performed where it makes the most sense Just-In-Time JIT is a production control system that grew out of Toyota’s kanban system. It is a philosophy of production control (also know as lean production) that attempts to reduce inventories to an absolute minimum. It has become pretty much a standard way of thinking in many industries (especially the automobile.) We will discuss JIT and its relationship to MRP in Chapter 8. Time-Based Competition “Time-based competitors focus on the bigger picture, on the entire valuedelivery system. They attempt to transform an entire organization into one focused on the total time required to deliver a product or service. Their goal is not to devise the best way to perform a task, but to either eliminate the task altogether or perform it in parallel with other talks so that over-all system response time is reduced. Becoming a time-based competitor requires making revolutionary changes in the ways that processes are organized” (Blackburn(1991). Being not only the first to market but the first to volume production as well gives a firm a decided advantage. See Table on p. 20 of text. How Do Firms Differentiate Themselves from Competitors? • Low Cost Leaders: Some examples include – WalMart and Costco in Retailing – Korean automakers (Hyundai, Kia, etc.) – Machines personal computers • High Quality (and price) Leaders. Ex: – Mercedes Benz automobiles – Rolex Watches – (some firms do both: Chevrolet and Cadillac) Along What Other Dimensions Do Firms Compete? • Delivery Speed, Delivery Reliability – Federal Express, United Parcel Service • Flexibility – Solectron: provides manufacturing services to many different companies. • Service – Nordstrom bases its reputation on providing a high quality of service to customers Firm Priorities When Competing on Quality . • 1 Conformance quality • • • • • • • • • 2. On-time delivery performance 3. Quality 4. Product flexibility 5. After-sale service 6. Price 7. Broad line (features) 8. Distribution 9. Volume flexibility 10. Promotion Servicization • The bundling of additional services with products • For many firms, the focus has moved downstream to the services required to operate and maintain their products • Can be the key to maintaining competitiveness • IBM is a classic example • Apple is todays prime example The Product Life-Cycle Curve The Process Life-Cycle and the Experience Curve The Product/Process Matrix Learning Curves The basic concept is that as a worker or an industry gains experience with a task or product, the process becomes more efficient. Experience has shown that this relationship is accurately described by an exponential function. Let Y(u) be the number of hours to produce the uth unit. Then the theory says that Y(u) = a u -b which gives Y(u) ______ Y(2u) = a(2u)-b _______ = 2-b a u -b A typical value is an 80% learning curve which is 2-b = .80. (This gives a value of b = -ln(.80)/ln(2) =0.322.) An 80% Learning Curve Prices of Integrated Circuits During the Period 1964-1972 Capacity Strategy Fundamental issues: – Amount. When adding capacity, what is the optimal amount to add? • Too little means that more capacity will have to be added shortly afterwards. • Too much means that capital will be wasted. – Timing. What is the optimal time between adding new capacity? – Type. Level of flexibility, automation, layout, process, level of customization, outsourcing, etc. Break-even Curves for the Make or Buy Problem Cost to Buy = c1x Cost to make=K+c2x K Break-even quantity Three Approaches to Capacity Strategy • Policy A: Try not to run short. Here capacity must lead demand, so on average there will be excess capacity. • Policy B: Build to forecast. Capacity additions should be timed so that the firm has excess capacity half the time and is short half the time. • Policy C: Maximize capacity utilization. Capacity additions lag demand, so that average demand is never met. Capacity Leading and Lagging Demand Determinants of Capacity Strategy • Highly competitive industries (commodities, large number of suppliers, limited functional difference in products, time sensitive customers) – here shortages are very costly. Use Type A Policy. • Monopolistic environment where manufacturer has power over the industry: Use Type C Policy. (Intel, Lockheed/Martin). • Products that obsolete quickly, such as computer products. Want type C policy, but in competitive industry, such as computers, you will be gone if you cannot meet customer demand. Need best of both worlds: Dell Computer. Mathematical Model for Timing of Capacity Additions Let D = Annual Increase in Demand x = Time interval between adding capacity r = annual discount rate (compounded continuously) f(y) = Cost of operating a plant of capacity y Let C(x) be the total discounted cost of all capacity additions over an infinite horizon if new plants are built every x units of time. Then C ( x ) = f ( xD ) + e − rx f ( xD ) + e −2 rx f ( xD ) + = f ( xD )(1 + e − rx + (e − rx ) 2 + (e − rx ) 3 + f ( xD ) = 1 − e − rx Mathematical Model (continued) • A typical form for the cost function f(y) is: f ( y ) = ky a Where k is a constant of proportionality, and measures the ratio of incremental to average cost of a unit of plant capacity. A typical value is a=0.6. Note that a<1 implies economies of scale in plant construction, since f (2 y ) k (2 y ) a a = = 2 ( = 1.516 for a=.6) a f ( y) k ( y) Mathematical Model (continued) Hence, a k ( xD) C ( x) = 1 − e − rx It can be shown that this function is minimized at x that satisfies the equation: rx =a rx e −1 This is known as a transcendental equation, and has no algebraic solution. However, using the graph on the next slide, one can find the optimal value of x or any value of a (0 < a < 1) The Function f (u ) = u /(eu − 1) To Use: Locate the value of a on the y axis and the corresponding value of x on the x axis. Issues in Plant Location • • • • • • • • Size of the facility. Product lines. Process technology. Labor requirements. Utilities requirements Environmental issues. International considerations Tax Incentives. Key Points • • • • • • • Manufacturing matters Strategic dimensions Global competition Strategic initiatives Product and process life cycles Learning and experience curves Capacity growth planning Assignment 1 • Due Date: May 21@ 11:59 p.m. (1 week) via BrightSpace • List your expectations from this course. – What areas of interests do you have, why. – What area do you like to avoid, why. • One page format single spaced, font size 12.
