Wilfredo Marchan
Wilfredo Marchan
MPRE 805 – Conflict Resolution
Spring 2023
Social conflicts in Venezuela
Framing the Discussion:
The goal of this paper is to portrait and analyze the biggest social conflicts in Venezuela in the
last 2 to 3 decades and how they affect the rest of the world. It is very important to note that
these social issues are still ongoing conflicts, and still impact millions of families every day.
This topic is highly emotional for me, as for most Venezuelans, as it has conditioned the way we
think and see the world. Therefore, the intention is to provide an objective view of the issues,
but without ignoring the personal experiences that have shaped my opinion and conditioning.
Background on the issue:
Venezuela is a country located in the northern part of south America, with tropical weather and
mostly known for its biggest resource, petroleum. We have produced oil since the 1910’s and
the Venezuelan economy has always been heavily supported by the oil industry.
During the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s Venezuela experienced its biggest economic growth, which
propelled infrastructure, education, and immigration, making it the country with the highest
standard of living in Latin America. In 1975 Venezuelan oil was nationalized, giving the
government all the power to make decisions over it. In the 80’s oil prices plummeted, and
society started to suffer the effects of a struggling economy, generating a lot of social
discontent, and an opportunity to explode social issues, which were leveraged by left wing
political parties in the 90’s.
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Hugo Chavez was elected president in 1998, promising to eradicate poverty, decrease social
disparities, and end corruption. He was the president for 15 years, in which he nationalized
land and businesses, incarcerated thousands of detractors, and misappropriated billions of
dollars’ worth of public funds. By the time Chavez died, Venezuela ranked number 1 in
corruption worldwide.
From the early 2010 to the present, Venezuela has experienced hyperinflation, and more than 7
million Venezuelans have fled the country.
Introduction to the issue:
The Venezuelan government adopted a very populist approach since its beginning in 1999,
overspending and mismanaging the country’s resources until the economy collapsed. During
this time, Chavez’s speech was focused on separating Venezuelans between “rich” and “poor”.
Once the government started targeting a certain group of the population, and people started to
see the lack of opportunities, the first group of Venezuelans started to migrate. On 2013 Chavez
died and Maduro took over the country with the Army’s help. At this point, the 15 years of
failed public policy were unsustainable, and hyperinflation crippled the economy.
The people’s dissatisfaction spread, and protests started appearing in every major city of the
country. Then, the government and army became even more authoritarian, incarcerating, killing
and torturing detractors, who were helpless. By November of 2019, over 4.6 million
Venezuelans had fled the country, mostly to other south American countries (Colombia, Chile,
Argentina, and Peru), and other countries such as USA, Canada and Spain.
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The main issue is that the countries where most of the Venezuelans went, were not prepared to
receive this amount of people in such little time, generating xenophobia, social discontent, and
creating economic, social, and ethical questions like how to tread the refugees and how to
tackle the source of the problem (the Venezuelan government).
Parties involved:
Venezuelan Citizens: The Venezuelan Citizens were always a big part of the problem, supporting
populist policies, and following the hate speech by Chavez and Maduro. By the time they
realized the government’s strategy, it was too late, and were in such a precarious situation that
they had to leave the country. Venezuelans should be accountable and responsible for
rebuilding the institutions. Their interests are to be able to return to the country and live decent
lives.
Other regional governments: The Venezuelan opposition warned other countries several times
about what was happening in the country. There were also several instances when human right
abuses were brought up for discussion at the UN and OAS, and were ignored or put aside,
mostly because the Venezuelan government paid its allies to vote against these topics. As a
result, the number of refugees became a large conflict in the region, and now affects the
stability of several countries. Their interest is to maintain a stable region.
Venezuelan Government: The Venezuelan Government and Army are the main responsible for
the social conflicts generated in the region. They should be held accountable in international
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courts and judged for several crimes against humanity. Their interest is to maintain absolute
power in the country.
Nine Steps
The nine steps are negotiation tools that allow us to identify stakeholders, issues, and interest.
By following this strategy, we can better evaluate conflicts and find potential solutions thar can
best serve all stakeholders.
In my point of view, is very clear that the first step to maintain stability in the region is to push
the Venezuelan regime out. This would improve the way the refugees see their future in
Venezuela and would trigger a wave of Venezuelans going back to the country, resulting in less
issues for other countries in the region.
However, the current government has no incentive to leave the power they hold. Therefore,
organizations like the UN and OAS, and all democratic governments should take action to stripe
the Venezuelan government out of power. Ultimately, the goal would be to achieve this without
catastrophic conflicts like wars.
Initial analysis, needs, and issues:
With such a globalized world, it is very important to understand how changes in other countries
can have big impacts on whole regions and continents. Venezuela is an example of how failed
policy and lack of democratic support can destabilize a region.
Another important point to analyze is geopolitical alliances and their impacts, because they
have the power to prevent or exacerbate different conflicts. Unfortunately, it is most commonly
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seen countries get together to support problematic countries, than countries getting together to
avoid human right abuses.
Finally, all countries need to ask themselves what to do with immigration crises like these. It is
not easy to draw a line and define who is coming because they are at risk, or who migrates for
the wrong reasons. Similarly, determining what rights refugees should have? Should they be
able to work? Should they have access to the economy, to start businesses and eventually gain
citizenship?
Potential Options:
Option 1 – Other regional governments to negotiate a transitioning Venezuelan government
which would incentivize refugees to go back to the country. For this option to be viable, certain
economic and social metrics must be set and measured regularly.
Option 2 – Offering refugees the capacity to work, open businesses, and a legal path to
residency. However, this usually increases the issue because other struggling nations tend to
seek the same treatment and expect resources that are non-sustainable.
Option 3 – An embargo to Venezuelan oil, which would cripple the government resources and
would weaken it. However, the timeline for this to happy is very broad, and side effect could be
an even larger migration wave out the country.
Problems remaining:
All the proposed alternatives present a lot of potential side effects, which tend to be especially
unforeseeable in social conflicts. Therefore, a one solution approach is unlikely to be successful.
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In my opinion, the biggest remaining issue is the lack of accountability for the people
responsible for several human rights violations. The lack of justice to the victims and their
families, which makes it very sensitive and difficult for some people to forget and move forward.
Difficult Conversations
Given the sensitive nature of the immigration conflict, it is very difficult for all stakeholders to
sit in the table and have an objective conversation. However, without having a round table
where all stakeholders can be honest about their interest and expectations it will be virtually
impossible to reach an agreement.
The conversations should be focused on the future rather than what happened in the past, and
it should focus on solving the issue rather than pointing out who is at fault. A good example of
this approach is Nelson Mandela in South Africa, where he focused on the future and was able
to positively impact the country.
Finally, the delivery method for this conversation is critical, and stakeholders should be divided
in groups, where discussions involve a lower emotional charge.
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NEGOTIATION WORKSHEET
Framing the Negotiation: What is this negotiation about?
The negotiation is about how to solve the Venezuelan refugee conflict, which is now generating
several more issues at other countries in the region.
As Refugees see it: They do not have a lot to lose, conditions are very precarious and the
necessity made them start a new journey.
As Other Regional Governments see it: Most of the migrants lack resource and require
economic support, this means an economic burden and less resource for citizens.
As the Venezuelan government sees it: Their goal is to maintain power and all resources to
enrich themselves.
Parties and Interests (list all significant parties who are at the table or are not but will
affect the outcome/implementation)
Party # 1: Refugees.
1. To be free to say your opinion.
2. To be able to provide for their families.
3. To come back to their home country.
4. To be able to have a decent life in their countries.
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Party # 2: Other regional governments.
1. To avoid the financial burden of receiving thousands of people.
2. To create a stable environment in the region.
3. To help refugees.
4. To ensure that resources are spent on their own citizens.
Party # 3: Venezuelan Government
1. To stay in power.
2. To be able to trade with other countries.
3. To be perceived as a democratic country.
Significant Issues that must be addressed in this negotiation (include issues of
communication and relationship if appropriate)
1. Deciding what rights and responsibilities refugees have.
2. Understanding where the resources to implement the plans will come from.
3. The international community needs to determine how to deal with the government members
accused of human right violations.
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Options: Actions that address the issues
Issue # 1
Options 1. To provide refugees with an opportunity to work for a limited amount of time.
2. To offer relocation to countries that could be better prepared to receive people.
3. To deport refugees back to Venezuela.
Issue # 2
Options 1. IMF, UN and AOS to fund/provide resources for refugees for a certain amount of
time.
2. To allow refugees to work so they can take care of their own expenses.
3. For other governments to appropriate Venezuela’s monetary reserves and use them to pay
for the refugees expenses.
Issue # 3
Options 1. To judge them in international courts.
2. To appropriate all assets and banning them from international traveling.
3. To forgive them and not judge them.
Standards of legitimacy (identify objective standards by issue; may include a fair process)
1. International law.
2. Human rights.
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3. International organizations like UN, AOS.
4. Setting a timeframe for the plan to be followed.
Alternatives (list alternatives and check best alternative to a negotiated agreement)
A potential alternative agreement would be to negotiate removing sanctions for Venezuelan
officials if they resign. Although this could potentially be a solution looking into the future, it is
very sensitive to families and citizens.
Relationship (describe)
How is it today?
The relationship between stakeholders is very fragile, there is a lot of distrust and lack of
cooperation.
How should it be?
Ideally, refugees, other regional governments and Venezuelan government should be working
side to side to solve the refugee crisis.
What steps can we take to get there, starting today?
Starting negotiations towards a better relationship, sit in the table in order to negotiate a way
out for the current government.
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Communication (Problems and Opportunities)
What information is lacking or not sufficiently understood?
Understanding the cost and resources required by the refugees to be able to live.
What information would I like the other party to know?
I would like for the other parties to know how the refugees are living and the challenges they
are facing.
Am I listening to and hearing what the other party is saying, and does he/she
understand that I am listening?
It is unclear if all parties are hearing each other or if they are interested in talking to each other
because of the sensitive nature of the issue.
Commitment (what agreement do I want in the long run and at this negotiation session?)
What are the elements of a long-term agreement?
Resources, accountability, and justice.
Can the parties perform the terms of the agreement?
Since this is still an ongoing issue it is hard to know if it is possible to perform.
Does the agreement cover the significant issues?
Yes. If the proposed alternatives are put into action, stakeholders should be able to cover the
issues.
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How will the parties handle problems as they arise during implementation of
the agreement?
It is very difficult to anticipate how social issues will arise. However, it would probably need to
done in negotiation rooms with a neutral party leading the conversations.
Define the agreement sought at the end of this negotiating session. (e.g. define
issues, establish the process for negotiating an agreement, a detailed list of action
items – what parties will or will not do, next meeting date and agenda)
The intended agreement is to provide refugees with a plan to go back to Venezuela and make
accountable to the people who committed crimes against the humanity.
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