Final Exam Review Hong Kong University of Science & Technology Abhiroop Mukherjee Final Exam Announcements Date, Time, and Venue Material: Includes everything, even pre-midterm Style: Homework problems Examples on lecture notes Practice Final posted on canvas Final Exam Announcements Exam is closed-book and closed-notes. Allowed: 2 cheat-sheets on standard A4 paper, 2-sided Pen/pencil, calculator (with exponents capability) Disallowed: phones, tablets, etc. Write answers on exam questionnaire. Scratch paper will be provided. Make sure to staple everything together in one pack. Exam Strategy Time management Allot time r/t points awarded/ability. Some MC/SA questions (20 min total): more conceptual, less calculations. One multi-part quantitative problem (30 – 40 min): some basic calculations. Exam Strategy Maximize your partial credits! Show all your work/thinking clearly. If you need the result from part (a) in order to answer part (b) and you don’t have it, assume a number and clearly state what you assumed, then proceed. Avoid Careless Mistakes Read questions carefully – It’s worth the time! MV Frontier vs. MV efficient frontier Returns (ri) vs. Excess returns (ri – rf) Returns (ri) vs. Expected returns E(ri) Pre-expense vs. post-expense returns Markowitz Portfolio Analysis Input list expected returns, variances, covariances Find the optimal risky (tangency) portfolio. Construct the minimum-variance efficient frontier. Find the CAL with the maximum Sharpe Ratio. Split money between the optimal risky portfolio and the riskfree asset. Two-fund separation theorem and possible violations The CAPM Statements about equilibrium “fair” level of returns. Start with Markowitz portfolio optimization. Impose market clearing condition. CAPM: Market Portfolio & CML Expected E(r) Return E(rM) Capital Market Line (CML) M Market Portfolio M = P* Market portfolio is MVE! F s sM Standard Deviation CAPM: Equilibrium Reward to Risk Security prices adjust until, in equilibrium, they all offer the same reward to risk, thus: [E(rx) – rf] = sMx [E(rx) – rf] = CAPM: E(rx) = [E(rM) – rf] sM 2 sMx [E(r ) – r ] M f sM2 rf + bx [E(rM) – rf] Security Market Line (SML) Expected E(r) Return E(rx), bx x SML M E(rM) E(ry), by y E(rM) – rf = slope of the SML rf b 1 bM = 1 Main Results Imply the expected return – beta linear relationship. The CAPM Variations in market portfolio is the only source of systematic risk. Modification into multi-factor models Additional factors may be priced. Allows accommodation of patterns in the data such as size effect, value premium, and momentum. Remember the Fama- French 3- or 4-factor model? Market Efficiency What is causing a return to deviate from its expected value? What is the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)? Three forms of market efficiency Does EMH contradict with active research and management? Behavioral Finance What are limits to arbitrage? Examples of situations which support limits to arbitrage theory, e.g., Twin Shares etc. Psychological biases How we apply the psych ideas to explain financial market puzzles Trading Strategies What is the underlying idea? How can you profit from it? (Talk about what the trading strategy is). Think about recent situations where you can apply some of it.