CHAPTER 3 Aggregate Demand in the closed Economy CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 0 Context This chapter develops the IS-LM model, the theory that yields the aggregate demand curve. We focus on the short run and assume the price level is fixed. This chapter focus on the closed-economy case. The next chapter presents the openeconomy case. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 2 Introduction In the worst year, 1933, one-fourth of the U.S. labor force was unemployed, and real GDP was 30 percent below its 1929 level. Classical theory (national income depends on factor supplies and the available technology)seemed incapable of explaining the Depression. – Neither of which changed substantially from 1929 to 1933. In 1936 the British economist John Maynard Keynes revolutionized economics with his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. Keynes: low aggregate demand is responsible for the economic downturns Economists reconcile: In the long run, prices are flexible, and aggregate supply determines income. – But in the short run, prices are sticky, so changes in aggregate demand influence income. – CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 3 The Goods Market and the IS Curve The model of aggregate demand developed in this chapter, called the IS– LM model, is the leading interpretation of Keynes’s theory.The goal of the model is to show what determines national income for any given price level. The IS curve plots the relationship between the interest rate and the level of income that arises in the market for goods and services. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 4 The Keynesian Cross A simple closed economy model in which income is determined by expenditure. (due to J.M. Keynes) Notation: I = planned investment E = C + I + G = planned expenditure Y = real GDP = actual expenditure Difference between actual & planned expenditure: unplanned inventory investment CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 5 Elements of the Keynesian Cross consumption function: C C (Y T ) govt policy variables: G G , T T for now, planned investment is exogenous: planned expenditure: I I E C (Y T ) I G Equilibrium condition: Actual expenditure Planned expenditure Y E CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 6 Graphing planned expenditure E planned expenditure E =C +I + G MPC 1 income, output, Y CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 7 Graphing the equilibrium condition E E =Y planned expenditure 45º income, output, Y CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 8 The equilibrium value of income E E =Y planned expenditure E =C +I + G income, output, Y Equilibrium income CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 9 An increase in government purchases E At Y1, there is now an unplanned drop in inventory… E = C + I + G2 E = C + I + G1 G …so firms increase output, and income rises toward a new equilibrium CHAPTER 10 Y E1 = Y 1 Y Aggregate Demand I E2 = Y2 slide 10 Solving for Y Y C I G equilibrium condition Y C I G in changes C G MPC Y G Collect terms with Y on the left side of the equals sign: (1 MPC) Y G CHAPTER 10 because I exogenous because C = MPC Y Finally, solve for Y : 1 Y G 1 MPC Aggregate Demand I slide 11 The government purchases multiplier Definition: the increase in income resulting from a $1 increase in G. In this model, the govt purchases multiplier equals Y 1 G 1 MPC Example: If MPC = 0.8, then An increase in G Y 1 5 causes income to G 1 0.8 increase by 5 times as much! CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 12 Why the multiplier is greater than 1 Initially, the increase in G causes an equal increase in Y: Y = G. But Y C further Y further C further Y So the final impact on income is much bigger than the initial G. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 13 An increase in taxes E Initially, the tax increase reduces consumption, and therefore E: E =C1 +I +G E =C2 +I +G At Y1, there is now an unplanned inventory buildup… C = MPC T …so firms reduce output, and income falls toward a new equilibrium CHAPTER 10 Y E2 = Y 2 Y Aggregate Demand I E1 = Y1 slide 14 Solving for Y eq’m condition in changes Y C I G C I and G exogenous MPC Y T Solving for Y : Final result: CHAPTER 10 (1 MPC) Y MPC T MPC Y T 1 MPC Aggregate Demand I slide 15 The Tax Multiplier def: the change in income resulting from a $1 increase in T : Y T MPC 1 MPC If MPC = 0.8, then the tax multiplier equals Y T CHAPTER 10 0.8 0.8 4 1 0.8 0.2 Aggregate Demand I slide 16 The Tax Multiplier …is negative: A tax hike reduces consumer spending, which reduces income. …is greater than one (in absolute value): A change in taxes has a multiplier effect on income. …is smaller than the govt spending multiplier: Consumers save the fraction (1-MPC) of a tax cut, so the initial boost in spending from a tax cut is smaller than from an equal increase in G. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 17 Exercise: Use a graph of the Keynesian Cross to show the impact of an increase in planned investment on the equilibrium level of income/output. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 18 The IS curve def: a graph of all combinations of r and Y that result in goods market equilibrium, i.e. actual expenditure (output) = planned expenditure The equation for the IS curve is: Y C (Y T ) I (r ) G CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 19 Deriving the IS curve CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 20 Why the IS curve is negatively sloped A fall in the interest rate motivates firms to increase investment spending, which drives up total planned spending (E ). To restore equilibrium in the goods market, output (a.k.a. actual expenditure, Y ) must increase. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 21 The IS curve and the Loanable Funds model (b) The IS curve (a) The L.F. model r S2 r S1 r2 r2 r1 r1 I (r ) S, I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I IS Y2 Y1 Y slide 22 Fiscal Policy and the IS curve We can use the IS-LM model to see how fiscal policy (G and T ) can affect aggregate demand and output. Let’s start by using the Keynesian Cross to see how fiscal policy shifts the IS curve… CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 23 Shifting the IS curve: G At any value of r, G E Y …so the IS curve shifts to the right. The horizontal distance of the IS shift equals E =Y E =C +I (r )+G 1 2 E E =C +I (r1 )+G1 r Y1 r1 1 Y G 1 MPC Y Y1 CHAPTER 10 Y Y2 IS1 Y2 Aggregate Demand I IS2 Y slide 24 Exercise: Shifting the IS curve Use the diagram of the Keynesian Cross or Loanable Funds model to show how an increase in taxes shifts the IS curve. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 25 The Theory of Liquidity Preference due to John Maynard Keynes. A simple theory in which the interest rate is determined by money supply and money demand. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 26 Money Supply The supply of real money balances is fixed: M r interest rate M P s P M P s M P CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I M/P real money balances slide 27 Money Demand r Demand for real money balances: M P d interest rate M P s L (r ) L (r ) M P CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I M/P real money balances slide 28 Equilibrium The interest rate adjusts to equate the supply and demand for money: M P L (r ) r interest rate M P r1 L (r ) M P CHAPTER 10 s Aggregate Demand I M/P real money balances slide 29 How the Fed raises the interest rate r interest rate To increase r, Fed reduces M r2 r1 L (r ) M2 P CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I M1 P M/P real money balances slide 30 CASE STUDY Volcker’s Monetary Tightening Late 1970s: > 10% Oct 1979: Fed Chairman Paul Volcker announced that monetary policy would aim to reduce inflation. Aug 1979-April 1980: Fed reduces M/P 8.0% Jan 1983: = 3.7% How do you think this policy change would affect interest rates? CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 31 Volcker’s Monetary Tightening, cont. The effects of a monetary tightening on nominal interest rates model short run long run Liquidity Preference Quantity Theory, Fisher Effect (Keynesian) (Classical) prices sticky flexible prediction i > 0 i < 0 actual outcome 8/1979: i = 10.4% 4/1980: i = 15.8% 1/1983: i = 8.2% CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 32 The LM curve Now let’s put Y back into the money demand function: d M P L (r ,Y ) The LM curve is a graph of all combinations of r and Y that equate the supply and demand for real money balances. The equation for the LM curve is: M P L (r ,Y ) CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 33 Deriving the LM curve (a) The market for r real money balances (b) The LM curve r LM r2 r2 L (r , Y2 ) r1 r1 L (r , Y1 ) M1 P CHAPTER 10 M/P Aggregate Demand I Y1 Y2 Y slide 34 Why the LM curve is upward-sloping An increase in income raises money demand. Since the supply of real balances is fixed, there is now excess demand in the money market at the initial interest rate. The interest rate must rise to restore equilibrium in the money market. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 35 How M shifts the LM curve (a) The market for r real money balances (b) The LM curve r LM2 LM1 r2 r2 r1 r1 L ( r , Y1 ) M2 P CHAPTER 10 M1 P M/P Aggregate Demand I Y1 Y slide 36 Exercise: Shifting the LM curve Suppose a wave of credit card fraud causes consumers to use cash more frequently in transactions. Use the Liquidity Preference model to show how these events shift the LM curve. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 37 The short-run equilibrium The short-run equilibrium is the combination of r and Y that simultaneously satisfies the equilibrium conditions in the goods & money markets: r Y C (Y T ) I (r ) G LM IS Y M P L (r ,Y ) Equilibrium interest rate CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Equilibrium level of income slide 38 The Big Picture Keynesian Cross Theory of Liquidity Preference IS curve LM curve IS-LM model Agg. demand curve Agg. supply curve CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Explanation of short-run fluctuations Model of Agg. Demand and Agg. Supply slide 39 Chapter summary 1. Keynesian Cross basic model of income determination takes fiscal policy & investment as exogenous fiscal policy has a multiplier effect on income. 2. IS curve comes from Keynesian Cross when planned investment depends negatively on interest rate shows all combinations of r and Y that equate planned expenditure with actual expenditure on goods & services CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 40 Chapter summary 3. Theory of Liquidity Preference basic model of interest rate determination takes money supply & price level as exogenous an increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate 4. LM curve comes from Liquidity Preference Theory when money demand depends positively on income shows all combinations of r andY that equate demand for real money balances with supply CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 41 Chapter summary 5. IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point (Y, r ) that satisfies equilibrium in both the goods and money markets. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 42 Preview of Chapter 3 In Chapter 3, we will use the IS-LM model to analyze the impact of policies and shocks learn how the aggregate demand curve comes from IS-LM use the IS-LM and AD-AS models together to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of shocks use our models to learn about the Great Depression CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 43 Context In the next section, we will use the IS-LM model to – see how policies and shocks affect income and the interest rate in the short run when prices are fixed – derive the aggregate demand curve – explore various explanations for the Great Depression CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 44 Equilibrium in the IS-LM Model The IS curve represents equilibrium in the goods market. Y C (Y T ) I (r ) G r LM The LM curve represents r1 money market equilibrium. IS M P L (r ,Y ) Y1 The intersection determines the unique combination of Y and r that satisfies equilibrium in both markets. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Y slide 45 Policy analysis with the IS-LM Model Y C (Y T ) I (r ) G r LM M P L (r ,Y ) Policymakers can affect macroeconomic variables r1 with • fiscal policy: G and/or T • monetary policy: M We can use the IS-LM model to analyze the effects of these policies. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I IS Y1 Y slide 46 An increase in government purchases r 1. IS curve shifts right 1 by G 1 MPC causing output & income to rise. 2. This raises money 2. LM r2 r1 3. …which reduces investment, so the final increase in Y 1 is smaller than G 1 MPC CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I IS2 1. demand, causing the interest rate to rise… IS1 Y1 Y2 Y 3. slide 47 A tax cut Because consumers save (1MPC) of the tax cut, the initial boost in spending is smaller for T than for an equal G… and the IS curve shifts by MPC 1. T 1 MPC r r2 2. r1 2. …so the effects on r and Y are smaller for a T than for an equal G. CHAPTER 10 LM Aggregate Demand I 1. IS2 IS1 Y1 Y2 Y 2. slide 48 Monetary Policy: an increase in M 1. M > 0 shifts the LM curve down (or to the right) 2. …causing the interest rate to fall r LM2 r1 r2 3. …which increases investment, causing output & income to rise. CHAPTER 10 LM1 Aggregate Demand I IS Y1 Y2 Y slide 49 Interaction between monetary & fiscal policy Model: monetary & fiscal policy variables (M, G and T ) are exogenous Real world: Monetary policymakers may adjust M in response to changes in fiscal policy, or vice versa. Such interaction may alter the impact of the original policy change. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 50 The Fed’s response to G > 0 Suppose Congress increases G. Possible Fed responses: 1. hold M constant 2. hold r constant 3. hold Y constant In each case, the effects of the G are different: CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 51 Response 1: hold M constant If Congress raises G, the IS curve shifts right If Fed holds M constant, then LM curve doesn’t shift. r LM1 r2 r1 IS2 IS1 Results: Y Y 2 Y1 Y1 Y2 Y r r2 r1 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 52 Response 2: hold r constant If Congress raises G, the IS curve shifts right r To keep r constant, Fed increases M to shift LM curve right. r2 r1 LM1 IS2 IS1 Results: Y Y 3 Y1 LM2 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y r 0 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 53 Response 3: hold Y constant If Congress raises G, the IS curve shifts right To keep Y constant, Fed reduces M to shift LM curve left. LM2 LM1 r r3 r2 r1 IS2 IS1 Results: Y 0 Y1 Y2 Y r r3 r1 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 54 Estimates of fiscal policy multipliers from the DRI macroeconometric model Estimated value of Y / G Estimated value of Y / T Fed holds money supply constant 0.60 0.26 Fed holds nominal interest rate constant 1.93 1.19 Assumption about monetary policy CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 55 Shocks in the IS-LM Model IS shocks: exogenous changes in the demand for goods & services. Examples: • stock market boom or crash change in households’ wealth C • change in business or consumer confidence or expectations I and/or C CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 56 Shocks in the IS-LM Model LM shocks: exogenous changes in the demand for money. Examples: • a wave of credit card fraud increases demand for money • more ATMs or the Internet reduce money demand CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 57 EXERCISE: Analyze shocks with the IS-LM model Use the IS-LM model to analyze the effects of 1. A boom in the stock market makes consumers wealthier. 2. After a wave of credit card fraud, consumers use cash more frequently in transactions. For each shock, a. use the IS-LM diagram to show the effects of the shock on Y and r . b. determine what happens to C, I, and the unemployment rate. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 58 IS-LM and Aggregate Demand So far, we’ve been using the IS-LM model to analyze the short run, when the price level is assumed fixed. However, a change in P would shift the LM curve and therefore affect Y. The aggregate demand curve (introduced in chap. 9 ) captures this relationship between P and Y CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 59 Deriving the AD curve Intuition for slope of AD curve: P (M/P ) LM shifts left r I Y r LM(P2) LM(P1) r2 r1 IS P Y2 Y P2 P1 AD Y2 CHAPTER 10 Y1 Aggregate Demand I Y1 Y slide 60 Monetary policy and the AD curve The Fed can increase aggregate demand: M LM shifts right r LM(M1/P1) LM(M2/P1) r1 r2 IS r I P Y at each value of P P1 Y1 Y1 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Y2 Y2 Y AD2 AD1 Y slide 61 Fiscal policy and the AD curve Expansionary fiscal policy (G and/or T ) increases agg. demand: r LM r2 r1 IS2 T C IS1 IS shifts right P Y1 Y2 Y Y at each value P1 of P Y1 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Y2 AD2 AD1 Y slide 62 IS-LM and AD-AS in the short run & long run Recall : The force that moves the economy from the short run to the long run is the gradual adjustment of prices. In the short-run equilibrium, if then over time, the price level will Y Y rise Y Y fall Y Y remain constant CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 63 The SR and LR effects of an IS shock r A negative IS shock shifts IS and AD left, causing Y to fall. LRAS LM(P ) 1 IS2 Y P SRAS1 Y Aggregate Demand I Y LRAS P1 CHAPTER 10 IS1 AD1 AD2 Y slide 64 The SR and LR effects of an IS shock r LRAS LM(P ) 1 In the new short-run equilibrium, Y Y IS2 Y P SRAS1 Y Aggregate Demand I Y LRAS P1 CHAPTER 10 IS1 AD1 AD2 Y slide 65 The SR and LR effects of an IS shock r LRAS LM(P ) 1 In the new short-run equilibrium, Y Y IS2 Over time, P gradually falls, which causes • SRAS to move down • M/P to increase, which causes LM to move down CHAPTER 10 Y P Y LRAS P1 Aggregate Demand I IS1 SRAS1 Y AD1 AD2 Y slide 66 The SR and LR effects of an IS shock r LRAS LM(P ) 1 LM(P2) IS2 Over time, P gradually falls, which causes • SRAS to move down • M/P to increase, which causes LM to move down CHAPTER 10 Y P IS1 Y LRAS P1 SRAS1 P2 SRAS2 Aggregate Demand I Y AD1 AD2 Y slide 67 The SR and LR effects of an IS shock r LRAS LM(P ) 1 LM(P2) This process continues until economy reaches a long-run equilibrium with Y Y IS2 Y P Y LRAS P1 SRAS1 P2 SRAS2 Y CHAPTER 10 IS1 Aggregate Demand I AD1 AD2 Y slide 68 EXERCISE: Analyze SR & LR effects of M a. Draw the IS-LM and AD-AS r diagrams as shown here. b. Suppose Fed increases M. Show the short-run effects on your graphs. c. Show what happens in the transition from the short P run to the long run. d. How do the new long-run P1 equilibrium values of the endogenous variables compare to their initial values? CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I LRAS LM(M /P ) 1 1 IS Y Y LRAS SRAS1 AD1 Y Y slide 69 240 30 220 Unemployment 25 (right scale) 200 20 180 15 160 10 140 5 120 1929 0 1931 1933 1935 1937 percent of labor force billions of 1958 dollars The Great Depression 1939 Real GNP (left scale) CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 70 The Spending Hypothesis: Shocks to the IS Curve asserts that the Depression was largely due to an exogenous fall in the demand for goods & services -- a leftward shift of the IS curve evidence: output and interest rates both fell, which is what a leftward IS shift would cause CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 71 The Spending Hypothesis: Reasons for the IS shift 1. Stock market crash exogenous C Oct-Dec 1929: S&P 500 fell 17% Oct 1929-Dec 1933: S&P 500 fell 71% 2. Drop in investment “correction” after overbuilding in the 1920s widespread bank failures made it harder to obtain financing for investment 3. Contractionary fiscal policy in the face of falling tax revenues and increasing deficits, politicians raised tax rates and cut spending CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 72 The Money Hypothesis: A Shock to the LM Curve asserts that the Depression was largely due to huge fall in the money supply evidence: M1 fell 25% during 1929-33. But, two problems with this hypothesis: 1. P fell even more, so M/P actually rose slightly during 1929-31. 2. nominal interest rates fell, which is the opposite of what would result from a leftward LM shift. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 73 The Money Hypothesis Again: The Effects of Falling Prices asserts that the severity of the Depression was due to a huge deflation: P fell 25% during 1929-33. This deflation was probably caused by the fall in M, so perhaps money played an important role after all. In what ways does a deflation affect the economy? CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 74 The Money Hypothesis Again: The Effects of Falling Prices The stabilizing effects of deflation: P (M/P ) LM shifts right Y Pigou effect: P (M/P ) consumers’ wealth C IS shifts right Y CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 75 The Money Hypothesis Again: The Effects of Falling Prices The destabilizing effects of unexpected deflation: debt-deflation theory P (if unexpected) transfers purchasing power from borrowers to lenders borrowers spend less, lenders spend more if borrowers’ propensity to spend is larger than lenders, then aggregate spending falls, the IS curve shifts left, and Y falls CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 76 The Money Hypothesis Again: The Effects of Falling Prices The destabilizing effects of expected deflation: e r for each value of i I because I = I (r ) planned expenditure & agg. demand income & output CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 77 Why another Depression is unlikely Policymakers (or their advisors) now know much more about macroeconomics: The Fed knows better than to let M fall so much, especially during a contraction. Fiscal policymakers know better than to raise taxes or cut spending during a contraction. Federal deposit insurance makes widespread bank failures very unlikely. Automatic stabilizers make fiscal policy expansionary during an economic downturn. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 78 Chapter summary 1. IS-LM model a theory of aggregate demand exogenous: M, G, T, P exogenous in short run, Y in long run endogenous: r, Y endogenous in short run, P in long run IS curve: goods market equilibrium LM curve: money market equilibrium CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 79 Chapter summary 2. AD curve shows relation between P and the IS-LM model’s equilibrium Y. negative slope because P (M/P ) r I Y expansionary fiscal policy shifts IS curve right, raises income, and shifts AD curve right expansionary monetary policy shifts LM curve right, raises income, and shifts AD curve right IS or LM shocks shift the AD curve CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 80