9(18) CHAPTER Openness in Goods and Financial Markets Macroeconomics ST 1 LEVEL CHAPTER 9 Openness has three distinct dimensions 1st closed economy 2nd open economy: Not dealing or trading with rest of world. Y=C+I+G Dealing or trading export and import with rest of world (Corporation of international trade) Y=C+I+G+NX(X-IM) Openness has three distinct dimensions 1. Openness in goods markets Free trade but there are restrictions include transportation cost تكاليف موصالتtariffs(tax on imports) جماركand quotasحصص 2. Openness in financial 3. Openness in factor markets: markets.: Capital controls place The ability of firms to choose restrictions on the where to locate production, ownership of foreign assets and workers to choose or remittances تحويالت where to work.)land ,labor التحكم فى انتقال رؤس االموال بوضع,capital and entrepreneur حدود لرؤس االموال الجنبية مثال اخرك دوالر فى0222 او0222 تحول السنة Note that More restriction lead to more closed economy and less open economy Resections is the opposite of openness 2 CHAPTER 9 How we can measure trade openness? index of openness in goods market: is the proportion نسبةtradable goods to aggregate output(GDP). Higher rate of opens to trade mean more open economy(+ve) and less closed economy (-ve) and vice versa Example:a nation that had $600 million in exports, $400 million in imports, and GDP of $2,000 million then find trade openness (trade-to-GDP ratio) ? Figure 1:U.S. Exports and Imports as Ratios of GDP since 1960 1)Exports and imports, which were equal to 5% of GDP in the 1960s, are now equal to about 12% of GDP which mean that trade openness increase 2)Both exports and imports as a percentage of GDP have increased or more than doubled At (begging1980)S: X<M but approximation difference فرق متفاربbetween them so deficit is so small Through time: X<M but The difference is expanding فرق زادso deficit increase 3 CHAPTER 9 The Choice between Domestic Goods and Foreign Goods 1) whether to buy domestic goods or to buy foreign goods. When goods markets are open, domestic consumers must decide 2) to buy foreign goods. we must unification the currency توحيد العملةbased on which we have deal between 2 countries EX : US dollar so we must calculate Exchange rate سعر الصرف 3)Central to the second decision is the real exchange rate سعر الصرف الحقيقى: price of domestic goods relative to foreign goods Nominal Exchange Rates (NER) Nominal exchange rates between two currencies can be quoted in one of two ways: ▪ As the price of the domestic currency in terms of the foreign currency. ▪ As the price of the foreign currency in terms of the domestic currency the price of the foreign currency ($US) in terms of (in relation to)the domestic currency (Egyptian pound LE) سعر العملة االجنبية مقومة بالعملة المحلية Nominal exchange rates EX: $1= 40 Egyptian pound A)An appreciation of currency: an increase in the price (exchange rate) of the currency in terms of another currency B)A depreciation of currency : an decrease in the price (exchange rate) of the currency in terms of another currency 4 CHAPTER 9 An appreciation of the domestic currency = A depreciation of the foreign currency A depreciation of the domestic currency = An appreciation of the foreign currency is an increase in the price(exchange is a decrease in the price(exchange rate) domestic currency in terms of the foreign currency. rate) of the domestic currency in terms of the foreign currency. Example Example $1 = 40 LE 1LE=$0.025 $1 = 40 LE 1LE=$0.025 $1=30LE 1LE=$0.033 Here Egyptian pound (LE) appreciation $1=60LE 1LE=$0.017 Here Egyptian pound(LE) depreciate and and $US depreciate $US appreciation Fixed exchange rates: When countries Maintain a constant exchange rate(relationship) between foreign currency ($US) and domestic currency (Kuwaiti dinar operate under KWD) fixed exchange A) Revaluations, (rather than appreciations), rates: which are increases in the exchange rate, B) Devaluations, (rather than depreciations), which are decreases in the exchange rate. 5 9 CHAPTER The Nominal Exchange Rate between the Dollar and the Pound since 1970 1)From 1960 through time nominal exchange rate of US dollar is fluctuating or swings or dancing of the dollar Although the dollar has strongly appreciated but has come with large swings in the especially in the 1980s. two main characteristics of the figure: 1) Upward trend(sloping) increase in the exchange rate(an appreciation of the dollar) 2)The large fluctuations in the exchange rate : a very large appreciation of the dollar in the first half of the 1980s, followed by a large depreciation later in the decade From Nominal (NER) to Real Exchange Rates (RER) Correct nominal exchange rate from prices(inflation) The real exchange Equals the nominal exchange rate times the foreign price level, divided by the domestic price level. rate: NER(E) nominal exchange rate P = price of U.S. goods in dollars P P* price of British goods in pounds 6 CHAPTER 9 Example iF $1= 2 British sterling pound and The price (CPI) of a in the United States is, say $40,000 he price(CPI) of the United Kingdom say, £30,000 =2.66 Like nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates move over time: 1) An increase real exchange rate (increase in the relative price of domestic goods in terms of foreign goods) is called a real appreciation. 2)A decrease real exchange rate(decrease in the relative price of domestic goods in terms of foreign goods) is called a real depreciation. Real and Nominal Exchange Rates Between the US and the UK since 1970 1)The difference between curves relate to difference in prices or CPI 2) trend reflecting higher average inflation in the United Kingdom than in the United States, 3)the nominal and the real exchange rates have moved largely together since 1970 7 CHAPTER 9 From Bilateral to Multilateral Exchange Rates Bilateral exchange rates: أسعار الصرف الثنائية are exchange rates between two countries. are exchange rates between several countries. Example to measure the average price of U.S. goods relative to the average price of trading partners goods: multilateral exchange rates : أسعار الصرف متعددة األطراف we use the U.S. share of import and export trade with each country as the weight for that country, relative price of foreign goods Via U.S. goods are called : 1)The real multilateral U.S. exchange rate 2)The U.S. trade-weighted real exchange rate. 3) The U.S. real effective exchange rate (REER). The U.S. Multilateral Real Exchange Rate since 1973 The large real appreciation of U.S. goods in the first half of the 1980s was followed by a large real depreciation in the second half of the 1980s. This large swing in the 1980s is sometimes called the “dance of the dollar.” 8 CHAPTER 9 Openness in Financial Markets The purchase and sale of foreign assets implies buying or selling foreign currency sometimes called foreign exchange. Openness in financial markets allows: 1) Financial investors to diversify: التنويع to hold both domestic and foreign assets and speculate يضاربon foreign interest rate movements. 2) Allows countries to run trade surpluses and deficits: A country that buys more than it sells (trade deficit) must cover (pay) for the difference by borrowing from the rest of the world. Questions 1) The trade openness ratio for a nation that had $1500 million in exports, $500 million in imports, and GDP of $4,000 million would be A) 0.1. B) 0.2. C) 0.5. D) -0.1. Answer C 2) The trade openness( trade-to-GDP) ratio is calculated by A) exports divided by GDP. B) imports divided by GDP. C) exports plus imports divided by GDP. D) exports minus imports divided by GDP. Answer C 3) A relative measure of the importance of trade is A) the dollar value of trade. B) trade as a percentage of GDP. C) the dollar value of trade adjusted for inflation. D) trade as a percentage of investment. Answer B 9 CHAPTER 9 4)Figure above show U.S. Exports and Imports as Ratios of GDP since 1960 it indicted that A)Both exports and imports as a percentage of GDP have decreased B)Both exports and imports as a percentage of GDP have increased C)Both exports and imports as a percentage of GDP have not change Answer B True or false : 5)More restriction lead to be close to open economy False 6)An appreciation of the domestic currency is a decrease in the price(exchange rate) domestic currency in terms of the foreign currency. False 7)An depreciation of the domestic currency is a decrease in the price(exchange rate) of the domestic currency in terms of the foreign currency. True 8)Nominal exchange rates A)Correct exchange rate from prices(inflation) B)Equals the exchange rate times the foreign price level, divided by the domestic price level C)the price of the foreign currency in terms of (in relation to)the domestic currency D)none of the above Answer C 9)Under Fixed exchange rates increases in the exchange rate, A) Revaluations, B) Devaluations C)Appreciations D) depreciations Answer A 10 9 CHAPTER 10)Figure above show Real and Nominal Exchange Rates Between the US and the UK since 1970 The difference between curves result from A. difference in prices or CPI B. difference in output C. difference in capacity D. none of the above Answer A True & false 11)Figure above show trend reflecting higher average inflation in the United Kingdom than in the United States True 12)Figure above show nominal and the real exchange rates have moved largely together since 1970 True 13)Figure above show The U.S. Multilateral Real Exchange Rate since 1973This large swing in the 1980s is sometimes called the……….. A. Fluctuation of the dollar B. Swing of dollar C. dance of the dollar D. all of the above Answer D 11 CHAPTER 9 14) In the U.S., over the past forty years, A) exports as a percentage of GDP have increased, while imports has a percentage of GDP have decreased. B) exports as a percentage of GDP have decreased, while imports has a percentage of GDP have increased. C) both exports and imports as a percentage of GDP have decreased. D) both exports and imports as a percentage of GDP have increased. E) both exports and imports as a percentage of GDP have remained constant. Answer: D 15) The ratio of a country's exports to its GDP must A) be greater than one. B) be less than one. C) equal the ratio of imports to GDP. D) be larger than the ratio of imports to GDP. E) none of the above Answer: E 16)When the dollar appreciates relative to the pound, the pound price of the dollar A) increases. B) decreases. C) does not change. D) increases or decreases, depending on the amount of the depreciation. E) changes in the next period. Answer: A 17)suppose there is a real depreciation of the dollar. Which of the following may have occurred? A) foreign currency has become more expensive in dollars. B) foreign goods have become more expensive to Americans. C) the foreign price level has increased relative to the U.S. price level. D) all of the above E) none of the above Answer: D 18)Suppose that over the past decade, U.S. inflation is less than that in Mexico. Further assume that during this same period, the dollar depreciates relative to the Mexican peso. Given this information, A) the real exchange rate remains unchanged. B) the real exchange rate must decrease. C) the real exchange rate must increase. Answer: B 12