Russia-Ukraine war : Economic crisis The world trade organisation which oversees trade ties and rules between nations has some real bad news when its comes to the world’s GDP . And all that has to do with Russia Ukraine war, this war has really spilled over geopolitical ties between nations and now we are forcing a new unofficial world order and that is the west vs Russia . This has affect the global economy , taking down the world;s GDP with it , because both Russia and Ukraine are impo suppliers of essential products. Current status • Today Russia Ukraine war has reached such a point point where it is really difficult to say what will be it's outcome. • According to experts, one thing is really clear that this war is not going according to the plan of Russia • Russia thought it would achieve a fast and decisive victory but the ukranian Resistance turned the tide. Why India should worry?? 1. Crude & Gas prices soaring 2. Agri products - Wheat, Corn, Sunflower Oil, Barley prices will rise 3. India's refusal to criticise Russia's actions, and the string of abstentions at UN might affect its relations with the West and Quad partners. 4. Economic sanctions on Russia might cripple Indo-Russia trade, energy and defence relations. 5. Tea exports from India to Russia hampered 6. Russia is looking for assistance from China which puts India in a precarious pos A Bigger worry for all!!!!! why UN choose to silent ? • Russia's actions in Ukraine has seen no intervention from UN. Russia is a part of UNSC blocking any action.• But if we look closely, Russian actions in Ukraine & lack of international mandate seem no different from the war by the US in Iraq in 2003, Israel's bombing of Lebanon in 2006 and the Saudicoalition's attacks of Yemen in 2015.• Perhaps Ukrainian conflict is a bigger blow to the post-World War order What is happening in market A potential invasion of Ukraine by neighbouring Russia would be felt across a number of markets,From wheat and energy prices and the region's sovereign dollar bonds to safe-haven assets and stock markets. • A major risk event usually sees investors rushing back to bonds, generally seen as the safest assets, and this time may not be different, • Even if a Russian invasion of Ukraine risks further fanning oil prices -- and therefore inflation. • Inflation at multi-decade highs and impending interest rate rises have made for a tetchy start to the year for bond markets, • With U.S. 10-year rates still hovering close to the key 2% level and German 10-year yields above 0% for the first time since 2019. Choices for Russia >Putin can declare a war on Ukraine instead of continuing with military operations >Another option for Putin is to make a decent agreement to ensure its control over Crimea, Donbass and Southern Ukraine. >Putin can also make it a 'frozen conflict’ These strategies can help out to demobilise west and diverse media attention.
