Operations Research (OR) infotesfish@gmail.com Chapter One Introduction to OR infotesfish@gmail.com 3 Chapter objectives After completing this unit, you will be able to: • Discuss Meaning and definition of OR • Understand the history of OR • Explain Features of OR • Discuss Significance of operations research. • Discuss OR techniques • Explain Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making • Models and Model Building 4 Introduction - Terminology European- Operational Research The Americans- Operations Research; shorten OR An other term MS, IE, DS, Problem Solving 5 History of OR • War Baby • Started in Great Britain during WWII (1939-1945) • Failure of missions were very high. • scientists and technocrats formed a team to study the problems arising out of different situations. • 1940s: the term of OR get more prominence when research was carried out on the design and analysis of mathematical models for military operations. Contd… 6 Till 1950s OR confined to military operations, 1950: OR began to develop in Industrial fields in USA. 1951: the first book of Morse and Kimball “Methods of Operations Research” published. 1952: the Operations Research Society of America came into being. 1957: IFORS established at Oxford Since then the OR/MS/DS has become more applicable in all management aspects of a system, product and service. 7 What is OR? Operations The activities carried out in an organization/elsewhere. Research The process of observation and testing characterized by the scientific method. Situation, problem statement, model construction, validation, experimentation, candidate solutions. Model An abstract representation of reality. Mathematical, physical, narrative, set of rules in computer program. 8 Meaning and Definition of OR OR is the application of a scientific approach to solving management problems Bernard W. Taylor III OR is the application of scientific methods by inter-disciplinary teams to solve problems involving the control of organized (man-machine systems) so as to provide solutions which best serve the purposes of the organization as a whole Ackoff and Sasieni 1968 Cont’d 9 OR is concerned with scientifically deciding how to best design and operate man- machine system usually requiring the allocation of scare resources.” Operations Research Society, America OR is a scientific approach to problem solving for executive management Harvey Wagner OR is the art of winning wars without fighting Clarke 10 Basic OR concepts OR is the representation of real-world system by mathematical models with a view to optimizing Mathematical model consists Decision variable –unknowns Constraints- physical limitation of the system An objective function An optimal solution OR is application of scientific methods/thinking in decision making Decision have to be made Using quantitative (explicit, articulated) approach –better decision than qualitative approach 11 FEATURES OF OR (i) Decision-making (ii) Scientific Approach (iii) Inter-disciplinary Team Approach (iv) System Approach (v) Use of models and computers (vi) Require willing executives 12 Application Areas of Operations Research There are so many application areas of operations research; to mention some of the most widely known areas: • Forecasting • Maintenance and Repair • Production Scheduling • Accounting procedures • Inventory Control • • Capital Budgeting • Natural Resource Management • Transportation • Research and Development • Plant location • Health Care • Human Resource Management • Quality Control • Advertising and sales research • Equipment Replacement, etc. Packaging 13 Significance of Operations Research The main purpose of O.R. is to provide a rational basis for decisions making in the absence of complete information Enables proper deployment of resources • Helps in minimizing waiting and servicing costs • Enables the management to decide when to buy and how much to buy • Assists in choosing an optimum strategy • Renders great help in optimum resource allocation • Facilitates the process of decision making • Helps a lot in the preparation of future managers Optimizing plant revenues Improving the efficiency of a production line 14 Techniques of OR 2. Inventory models 3. Replacement models The commonly used techniques include 4. Network models 1. Allocation models : 5. Waiting- line models(Queuing theory) Linear programming 6. Simulation Non-linear programming 7. Sequencing models Transportation models Assignment models 8. Decision theory 9. Game theory Integer programming Goal programming Dynamic programming 10. Markov models 11. Regression and correlation 15 Quantitative Analysis & the Decision Making Process In order to understand the role of quantitative analysis in managerial type of problems, it is better to have a look at the decision making process. Decision Making: is the process of selecting a feasible course of action from a set of alternative, so as to solve problems. The decision making process is initiated by a problem. The intention of the manager, when making a decision, is to solve that problem. In doing so, the manager first makes an analysis of the alternatives. There are two forms of analysis— qualitative and quantitative. 16 The Management science process Observation Problem definition Model construction Feedback Solution Implementation Management science techniques Steps in the management science process 17 Observation - Identification of a problem that exists (or may occur soon) in a system or organization. Definition of the Problem - problem must be clearly and consistently defined, showing its boundaries and interactions with the objectives of the organization. Model Construction - Development of the functional mathematical relationships that describe the decision variables, objective function and constraints of the problem. Model Solution - Models solved using management science techniques. Model Implementation - Actual use of the model or its solution. Decision Making Process 18 Qualitative analysis based upon managerial experience and judgment Summary & evaluation Managerial Problem Quantitative analysis based upon mathematical techniques Figure 1.1 The Decision Making Process Decision Cont… In qualitative analysis, intuition and the manager’s subjective judgment and experience are used. This type of problem solving is more an art than a science. The qualitative approach is usually used when: The problem is simple The problem is familiar The costs involved are not so great Immediate decisions are needed Cont… 17 The quantitative approach is used when: The problem is complex The problem is unacquainted The costs involved are substantial Enough time is available to analyze the problem Cont…. 21 Both the quantitative and qualitative analyses of a problem provide important information for the decision maker. quantitative analysis tend to be more objective than those based on a purely qualitative analysis. For this reason OR makes use of quantitative models. Steps of decision making 22 1. Identify and define the problem; 2. Determine the set of alternative solutions; 3. Determine the criteria to evaluate alternatives; 4. Analyze the alternatives; 5. Select the best alternative/make the decision; 6. Implementing the solution; 7. Establishing a control, follow up and evaluation system; Models and model building 23 Model is a theoretical abstraction(approximation) of a real-life problem. In OR, the problem is expressed in the form of a model. A management science model is an abstract representation of an existing problem situation. It can be in the form of a graph or chart, but most frequently a management science model consists of a set of mathematical relationships. Cont….. 24 There are certain significant advantages gained when using a model. Problem`s under consideration become controllable through a model It provides a logical and systematic approach to the problem It provides the limitations and scope of an activity It helps to eliminate duplications It helps in finding solutions for research and improvements in a system. Problem Solving Process Goal: • Solve a problem • Model must be valid • Model must be tractable • Solution must be useful Formulate the Problem Situation Problem Statement Implement a Solution Data Construct a Model Problem Definition Implement the Solution Model Model Construction Procedure Find a Solution Analysis (Model Solution) Establish a Procedure Implementation & Follow-up Test the Model and the Solution Solution Tools Figure 1.2 The management science approach Relationship between the Manager and O.R. Specialist 26 The key responsibility of manager is decision making. The role of the O.R. specialist is to help the manager make better decisions. Recognize from organizational symptoms that a problem exists. Manager Decide what variables are involved; state the problem Both Investigating methods to solve the problem OR specialist Test alternative solutions OR specialist Determine which solution is most effective Both Choose the solution to be used Manager Put the solution into action both 27 Classification of Models The classification of models is a subjective problem. They may be distinguished as follows: Models by function Models by degree of abstraction Models by structure Models by nature of an environment Models by the extent of generality 1. Models based on Function/purpose: 28 A. Descriptive Models: uses surveys , questionnaire, inference of observations to describe the situation. Ex. Plant Layout diagram, Block diagram of an algorithm. B. Predictive Models: These models are the results of query: “ What will follow if this occurs or does not occur?”. Ex. Preventive Maintenance Trouble Shooting chart or procedures. C. Normative or Optimization Models: designed to provide optimal solution to the problem subject to a certain limitations or constraints on use of resources. Ex. LP Problem 29 2. Models based on Structure and Abstraction : A. Iconic or Physical Models (It is also called Static Model): are pictorial representations of real systems These models are easy to observe and describe but are difficult to manipulate. E.g. the structure of an atom, layout drawing of factory, model of an airplane etc. B. Analog Models: They are more abstract than iconic models. These models are less specific, less concrete but easier to manipulate than iconic models. Abstract models mostly showing inter and intra relationships between two or more parameters. For example It may show the relationship between an input with that of an output. For instance; histogram, frequency table, cause-effect diagram, flow charts, Gantt charts etc. 30 Cont….. C. Mathematical or Symbolic Models: They are most abstract in nature. Here, a set of relations is represented in the form of mathematical equations Its function is more explanatory than descriptive. Example: 1. (x + y) 2 = x2+2xy+y2 2. Max. Z=3000x1 +2500x2 Subject to: 2x1+x2 < 40 x1+3x2 < 45 x1< 12 x1 , x2 > 0 x1 and x2 are decision variables. 31 3. Models based on certainty/ Nature of an Environment : (1) Deterministic Models: all the parameters of decision variables are constants and their functional relationship are known with certainty. Eg. LP, Integer programming etc. (2) Probabilistic or Stochastic Models: This is the model in which at least one of the decision variable or parameter is random in nature. Eg. Queuing theory, decision analysis etc. 32 4. Models by Extent of Generality These models can be categorized in to: A. Specific Models: when a model presents a system at some specific time B. General Models: are models applicable to all situations without time bound. Simulation and Heuristic models fall under this category. 33 Limitations of OR • The inherent limitations concerning mathematical expressions • High costs are involved in the use of OR techniques • OR does not take into consideration the intangible factors • OR is only a tool of analysis and not the complete decision-making process • Other limitations Bias Internal resistance Competence 34