Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40996-022-00830-z
RESEARCH PAPER
The Assessment of Sustainability of Freight Transportation in Pakistan
Afzal Ahmed1
· Mohammed Raza Mehdi1 · Mirza Asad Ullah Baig1 · Mudassar Arsalan2
Received: 11 November 2020 / Accepted: 12 January 2022 / Published online: 30 January 2022
© Shiraz University 2022
Abstract
This paper examines the carbon footprint of freight transport in Pakistan and evaluates the potential of improving the
performance of freight transportation. This study is first of its nature from Pakistan on the quantitative evaluation of the
sustainability of freight transport using limited available data. The trends in the mode share of freight transport in Pakistan
are examined. The comparison of truck-based freight transport and rail-based freight transport in terms of carbon footprint
and line-haul cost is made. Policy measures are recommended to improve sustainability. The carbon footprint of freight
transportation in Pakistan is estimated using the tonnes-km of freight carried by each mode of transport. A detailed survey
was conducted to determine the fuel required per unit tonnes-km transport of freight using trucks. The official data from
Pakistan Railways were acquired to estimate the fuel required per tonnes-km of freight transportation through railways.
Results show that the carbon footprint can be significantly reduced by increasing the share of rail-based freight transportation, which can minimize the impact of freight transportation on climate change. The cost and C
­ O2 emissions projected for
the business-as-usual scenario are compared with proposed improvement scenarios, which recommend the gradual shifting
of freight transport to railways. The proposed improvement scenario reduces up to 43% of line-haul cost and C
­ O2 emissions
from freight transport.
Keywords Carbon footprint · Line-haul cost · Greenhouse gas emissions · CPEC · Railways
Abbreviations
BAUBusiness-as-usual
CIUComponent implementation unit
CPECChina–Pakistan Economic Corridor
GHGGreenhouse gases
OECDOrganization for Economic Cooperation
and Development
PAKSTRANPakistan Sustainable Transport Project
PRPakistan Railways
* Afzal Ahmed
afzalahmed@neduet.edu.pk
Mohammed Raza Mehdi
mraza@neduet.edu.pk
Mirza Asad Ullah Baig
masad@neduet.edu.pk
Mudassar Arsalan
mharsalan@gmail.com
1
Department of Urban & Infrastructure Engineering, NED
University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan
2
School of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences,
Western Sydney University, Sydney, Australia
1 Introduction
The world is aiming towards a clean and green environment
after the introduction of sustainable development goals in
the United Nations Rio + 20 Summit in 2012 (Griggs et al.
2013). Curbing greenhouse gaseous concentration is now
one of the major concerns of policymakers. Activities that
contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
include transportation and industrial activities. 93–95% of
GHG emissions from transport activity are contributed by
­CO2 emissions (McKinnon and Piecyk 2011). Different
countries exhibit different trends in carbon emissions based
on their attitude towards a sustainable policy framework
(Olivier et al. 2012; Schipper et al. 1997). Pakistan’s contribution to GHG emissions is relatively small but growing
significantly, which is expected to increase at a rapid pace
(Sanchez-Triana and Afzal 2012). The overall GHG emissions in Pakistan are mainly attributed to the transport sector, specifically road-based transportation (Sanchez-Triana
and Afzal 2012).
Rondinelli and Berry (2000) highlighted that proactive management and identification of factors affecting
the environment are essential in the transportation system.
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Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
Energy-efficient transport with low ­CO2 emissions is the
prerequisite of sustainable transportation. There are different ways to make transportation more energy efficient and
reduce ­CO2 emissions. These include improving vehicle
design and maintenance, certifications, driver training, fleet
management, and modal shifting towards more sustainable
modes. Barth and Boriboonsomsin (2008) concluded that
­CO2 emissions could be reduced significantly by traffic congestion mitigation, speed management, and shockwave suppression strategies. Zanni and Bristow (2010) identified that
low emission vehicles have a great potential of contributing
to a reduction in overall ­CO2 emissions. Piecyk and McKinnon (2010) concluded that the change in road tonnes-km,
average load, and percentage of empty running has a significant impact on overall ­CO2 emissions.
The share of transportation in the overall energy consumption has increased in nearly all industrialized countries (Schipper et al. 1997), which also impacts the economy
(Liu and Lin 2009; Zhang 1998). Countries with superior
transportation infrastructure, well-planned networks, and
efficient transportation modes, specifically for freight transportation, are leading in the economy. Energy and transport
demand for freight in developing countries, like Pakistan,
is expected to increase progressively in the upcoming years
due to population growth and economic industrialization.
It is, therefore, necessary to take measures and introduce
a policy framework that makes transportation sustainable
in terms of social, economic, environmental, and climatic
impacts.
Means of freight transport are usually in the form of
rail, road, and water- and air-based transportation modes.
Different countries have a different mix of mode share in
freight transportation. The statistics of different countries
like China, Korea, and Vietnam show that there is a significant difference in the modal mix of passenger and freight
transportation. This difference is mainly due to the use of
railways and shipping as the major modes of freight transport (Timilsina and Shrestha 2009). Developed countries
Table 1 Comparison of
domestic mode share of freight
transportation of different
countries
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like the USA and Canada have a significant share in railbased freight transportation, Japan in water-based, Russia
in oil pipelines, and European countries in rail and waterbased freight transportation (European-Commission 2009),
whereas in Pakistan, there is no significant difference in the
mode share for freight and passenger transport. Road-based
transport has been the dominant transport mode for both
passengers and freight transport in Pakistan (Timilsina and
Shrestha 2009). The domestic mode share of freight transportation of different countries is shown in Table 1. Among
the countries compared in Table 1, Pakistan has the highest
dependency on road-based freight transport with the least
share of rail-based freight transport. Table 1 shows that
Russia has the least share of road-based freight transport,
and only 6% of its total freight is transported through roads,
while 94% of freight transportation is carried out using more
sustainable transportation modes.
Road-based freight transportation is more emission intensive, especially in terms of ­CO2 emissions. Ramachandra
(2009) estimated that out of total C
­ O2 emissions from the
transport sector in India, road transport contributes to 94.5%
of emissions. The modal shift towards truck-based freight
transportation raises the energy use and carbon emissions,
as in the case of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries (Kamakate and
Schipper 2009). Numerous studies have been conducted all
around the world to recommend different methods to reduce
­CO2 emissions and make transportation economical. Green
Freight India (Kumar and Mejia 2015), GMS Green Freight
Initiative (GMS-EOC 2013), and Sustainable Transport Project for Egypt (Fathy, 2010) include policy framework to
make the freight transport sustainable. The important mitigation measures in these studies include fuel efficiency, network planning, and modal shifting to less emission-intensive
modes such as railway and waterway. In Pakistan, PAKistan
Sustainable TRANsport Project (PAKSTRAN) conducted
various research studies to identify steps and procedures for
estimating the current and future environmental, economic,
S. no. Country
Road
share
(%)
Rail share (%) Water-based
transport share
(%)
Pipeline (%)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
6
10
15
15
20
45
60
89
96
43
30
52
5
20
10
4
5.2
4
46
2
20
0
0
5
0
0
0
Russia (European-Commission 2009)
China (European-Commission 2009)
USA (European-Commission 2009)
Vietnam (Timilsina and Shrestha 2009)
Korea (Timilsina and Shrestha 2009)
EU-27 (European-Commission 2009)
Japan (European-Commission 2009)
Turkey (Ozen and Tuydes-Yaman 2013)
Pakistan (GOP 2018–19)
5
58
13
80
60
40
36
5.8
0
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
and social impacts by freight transportation as well as a
range of policy options to mitigate these impacts (Arsalan
2015; Elahi 2015; IES 2016; MS 2015). These studies discussed the data collection and analysis techniques regarding
fuel consumption and emissions as well as presented mitigation plans and policy measures. However, these studies did
not perform any numerical analysis of emission trends or
fuel consumption data. Furthermore, there is no comprehensive study on the evaluation of the freight transport system
in Pakistan.
The negative impact of freight transportation can be significantly reduced by encouraging modes of transportation
that consume less energy in freight transportation. It is found
from the studies that intermodal (rail + truck) is a relatively
green and efficient mode because it has greater capacity and
offers economies of scale (Ovais 2016). Rail offers the sustainable movement of goods because of its suitability for
long hauls, low tractive resistance, and low emission factor, being railway used to be the dominant mode of freight
transportation in Pakistan. It carried around 73% of freight
traffic between 1955 and 1960 (Sanchez-Triana and Afzal
2012). In the 1970s, the policy shift from rail transportation to road transportation, particularly the trucking sector,
resulted in infrastructure degradation, congestion, and safety
issues (Nazir et al. 2016). This was due to inadequate transport planning and policymaking at the government level.
Also, public transport was deregulated, and the private sector emerged as a major service provider and a competitor.
Moreover, track length and federal expenditure on railways
were also reduced (Sanchez-Triana and Afzal 2012). Now,
trucking by the private sector is dominant in Pakistan’s roadbased freight transportation.
Baidya and Borken-Kleefeld (2009) identified that for
fuel combustion and ­CO2 emissions, trucks are the single
most important vehicle category. According to an estimate,
more than 30% of the trucking fleet consists of trucks that
are more than 20 years old. US-EPA has suggested emission
certification procedures (US-DOE 1998), but these are not
properly implemented in the case of Pakistan. Overloading
of trucks is another issue that damages the road infrastructure and increases maintenance costs. From a safety point
of view, truck-based freight transportation is less safe as
compared to other modes. It increases the probability of road
accidents and fatalities as well as increases noise pollution
and the risk of spilling hazardous materials. This inefficiency along with the increase in road-based freight transportation share makes the transportation system of Pakistan
less sustainable.
The existing literature lacks studies on quantitative analysis of freight transport in developing countries, which may
be attributed to the lack of required data. This study shows
how a detailed sustainability analysis can be performed using
limited available data. The analysis framework developed in
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this study can be adapted for transport systems with limited
data availability. This study examines three aspects of sustainability of freight transportation in Pakistan, i.e. environmental, economic, and social aspects. Detailed comparative
analysis of road-based and rail-based freight transportation
is also performed in this paper. The first part of the analysis
covers the environmental impact analysis, in which current
and future ­CO2 emissions of two modes, i.e. road-based and
rail-based freight transportation, are discussed. The second
part covers the economic impact analysis, in which the linehaul cost of transportation through the available modes is
discussed. Further, a brief analysis of the social impacts of
freight transportation and its reforms is presented. This study
also proposes improvement scenarios in which a gradual
shift to a more sustainable freight transport mode is recommended, and its impact is compared with the businessas-usual (BAU) scenario for each of the three aspects of
sustainability.
This research uses the limited available data of freight
load transport in contrast to other studies, where microscopic
data such as transport activity and emissions rates need
extensive research before the estimations. The causes and
implications of a higher share of freight transport through
trucks have been highlighted along with the discussion
on the existing sustainability and a way forward has been
described to make the freight transport sustainable.
2 Freight Transportation Network
in Pakistan
Pakistan has two major seaports, which include Karachi Port
and Bin-Qasim Port. These two ports handle 95% of the
national imports and exports (PC-GOP 2013) and act as disbursing points of freight all over the country. The highway
network of Pakistan consists of 47 national highways, motorways, expressways, and strategic roads. The highways system extends over 12,000 km (PC-GOP 2013). In the highway
network of Pakistan, N-5 and N-55 are the busiest highways
in terms of freight transportation. National Highway N-5 is
1,760 km long and connects Karachi with Torkham (Pakistan–Afghanistan Border Crossing). N-55 is 1,265 km long,
which connects Hyderabad with Peshawar (TRTA 2016).
These routes are shown in Fig. 1.
The Pakistan Railways (PR) is the sole government
agency responsible for rail transport. It has a network of
7,791 route km. Only one-third of the network carries most
trains and handles 85% of rail-based passenger and freight
traffic, whereas two-thirds of the existing railway network
is of non-commercial value and consists of branches and
strategic lines (PC-GOP 2013). Pakistan Railways comprises totally 470 locomotives (GOP 2018–19). It is the
only major mode of transport operated by the public sector,
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Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
Fig. 1 Map of national highway network of Pakistan ( Source: NHA–Pakistan)
and it contributes to economic growth and provides national
integration. The major railway lines are ML-1, ML-2, and
ML-3, as shown in Fig. 2.
Another development in the existing transportation network of Pakistan is the operationalization of Gwadar deep
seaport, which is part of the ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)’. It consists of various trade routes from Gwadar, Pakistan, to Kashgar, China (Makhdoom et al. 2018). As
megaprojects are on their way under CPEC, it is necessary to
adopt the policies that encourage sustainable development,
especially in terms of energy-efficient and environmentalfriendly transportation.
The historic data of road-based freight transportation
in Pakistan since 2000 are shown in Fig. 3. It shows that
the freight demand in Pakistan is increasing rapidly. The
freight transported using trucks during the year 2018–2019
was recorded at 185 billion tonnes-km, which is an increase
of 73% from 2000 to 2001 at an average growth rate of 3.1%
per annum. It is also evident from the figure that the major
share in freight transportation is taken up by trucks. The
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highest share of truck-based freight transport was recorded
from 2011 to 2013 at 99%.
The trend of freight volume transported via trains is shown
in Fig. 4. It indicates that the freight volume carried by trains
is quite less as compared to the volume transported by trucks.
The freight transported using railways was recorded at 8.7 billion tonnes-km during 2018–2019, which is an increase of
92.5% in 19 years from 4.52 billion tonnes-km in 2000–2001.
Despite this increase, the share of railways in freight transport is still around 4%. The share of rail-based freight transport reduced from 2009 and almost become negligible in the
years 2011–2012 and 2012–2013. After the year 2012–2013,
a gradual increase in the share of rail-based freight transport
was recorded.
This imbalance in the volume share of freight transportation
causes various impacts on the sustainability of transportation.
These impacts are broadly classified into three categories, i.e.
environmental, economic, and social impacts. Each of these
impacts is evaluated in this paper.
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
2597
190.00
100.00
180.00
98.00
170.00
96.00
92.00
150.00
90.00
140.00
88.00
130.00
Freight Volume
120.00
% Share
110.00
100.00
3 Methodology
3.1 Estimation of Carbon Footprint
There are various methods for estimating carbon emissions at the micro-level. Techniques available for measuring carbon emissions include calculation by tunnel bores
% Share
94.00
160.00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
Fig. 3 Variation in freight transportation volume via trucks
Freight Volume (Billion Tonnes - Km)
Fig. 2 Map of railway network of Pakistan ( Source: Pakistan Railways)
86.00
84.00
82.00
80.00
(Ban-Weiss et al. 2009; Miguel et al. 1998); emission
measuring instruments/system (Chen et al. 2007; Frey
et al. 2003; Liu et al. 2009); remote sensing (Bishop et al.
2001); chassis dynamometer (Ristovski et al. 2005); fuelbased approach (Singer and Harley 1996); linked-based
emission rates (Frey et al. 2008); microscopic emission
models (Rakha et al. 2004); web-based support systems
13
10.00
9.00
Freight Volume
8.00
% Share
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
Fig. 4 Variation in freight transportation volume via trains
(Li et al. 2009); mathematical models-based vehicle-specific power (VSP) approach (Zhai et al. 2008); and hybrid
method for holistic inventory estimations (Lin et al. 2013).
The carbon footprint represents overall C
­ O2 emissions
from an activity. The carbon footprint from freight transport
can be estimated using two approaches, i.e. top-down and
bottom-up approaches. The top-down approach is based on
total energy consumption during transport, and the bottomup approach is based on the level of transport activity (Piecyk 2010). In this paper, the carbon footprint from freight
transport in Pakistan is estimated using a top-down energybased approach. In the bottom-up activity-based approach,
the carbon footprint is estimated using truck emissions factors (gm/tonne-km) and total freight volume transportation
data (tonnes-km). However, the data for emission factors
for the local fleet of trucks do not exist, and the estimation of emission factors is a cumbersome task, which is
not included in the scope of this study. Therefore, the topdown energy-based approach is more suitable, as the data
needed to estimate carbon footprint using this approach can
be easily acquired for local freight transport in Pakistan. It
has been suggested that the top-down down approach gives
more realistic results about emissions of different pollutants
(McKinnon and Piecyk 2011). Due to these two reasons,
this research applies the energy-based approach for carbon
footprint estimation using the formula described in Eq. (1)
(McKinnon and Piecyk 2011):
T =D×F×E
(1)
where T = total ­CO2 emissions, D = average distance travelled, F = average fuel consumption per Km, and E = ­CO2
emissions per litre of fuel.
The data about the volume of freight transportation are
acquired from the Economic Survey of Pakistan (GOP
13
15.00
14.00
13.00
12.00
11.00
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
% Share
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
Freight Volume (Billion Tonnes - Km)
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2018–19). The historic freight transport data are used to
project the future trend of freight transport.
3.2 Survey for Average Fuel Consumption
The data about average fuel consumption and the average
load were obtained by conducting a survey from truck drivers and operators. The survey was conducted from randomly
selected one hundred drivers and operators of different types
of trucks at the port terminal in Karachi. The selection of
respondents ensured that the sample population of trucks
is representative of various types of trucks used in freight
transport in Pakistan. The data of average load and fuel consumption of trains were acquired from the Ministry of Railways, Government of Pakistan (Khattak 2019). The average
­CO2 emissions per litre combustion of diesel are normally
a general value that is taken after reviewing relevant literate
(ICCT 2020; NRC 2020; Pollution-Probe 2009; US-DOT
2020). A summary of the survey data from truck drivers and
Pakistan Railways is shown in Table 2.
The value of average fuel consumption in litres per km
is calculated by taking the inverse of the mileage in km per
litre. The fuel consumption in litres per tonne-km is determined by dividing the average load of the truck by average
fuel consumption. Hence, annual fuel consumption is determined by taking the product of freight volume in tonnes-km
and average fuel consumption in litres per tonne-km. Finally,
emissions can be calculated by multiplying fuel consumption with standard emission factors.
3.3 Line‑Haul Cost Estimation
Minimizing the cost of freight transportation is another
important aspect that ensures the sustainability of freight
transportation. There are mainly two different costs of
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
Table 2 Estimation of
emissions from data
Trucks
Trains
Mileage (km/litre)
Average load of truck (tonnes/truck)
CO2 emission factor (kg/litre) =
Average fuel consumption (litres/km)
Litres per tonne-km
Transport volume (billion tonnes-km)
Annual fuel consumption (billion-litres)
CO2 emission (M-tonnes)
freight transportation, i.e. internal and external costs.
The external cost is associated with the impacts caused
by transportation, i.e. environmental, infrastructure, and
social impacts, whereas the internal cost is associated with
the cost of operations which includes fuel cost (line-haul
cost) and maintenance cost. This paper is limited to only
line-haul cost estimation of freight transport. It compares
the cost of freight transportation through road-based and
rail-based freight transportation. The yearly cost of operation is calculated using Eq. (2):
2
56
2.65
0.5
0.009
107.1
0.956
2.534
Mileage (km/litre)
Average load of trains (tonnes/train)
CO2 emission factor (kg/litre)
Average fuel consumption (litres/km)
Litres per tonne-km =
Transport volume (billion tonnes-km)
Annual fuel consumption (billion-litres)
CO2 emission (M-tonnes)
0.2
3200
2.65
5
0.002
4.52
0.007
0.019
4 Results and Discussion
4.1 Environmental Analysis
4.1.1 Emissions from Road‑Based Freight Transportation
The summary of the average values of parameters such as
average fuel consumption and loading capacity of trucks
and trains is shown in Table 2. The average ­CO2 emissions
per litre combustion of diesel are taken 2.65 kg/litre (ICCT
Yearly Cost = Cost per tonne-km × yearly volume of freight in tonnes-km
The freight transport cost per km per tonne is estimated
based on the data acquired from the survey of truck drivers
and operators. The value of cost per litre of fuel for a given
year is based on the average value of fuel during that year
(GIZ 2017; PSO 2020).
The internal cost of transportation in different scenarios
is estimated using the total energy required for the transportation activity. Two scenarios have been proposed, i.e.
BAU and improvement scenarios, with actions aimed at
reducing carbon footprint as well as the line-haul cost of
transportation. In the end, some sustainability indicators
of all three aspects are compared for two modes.
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(2)
2020; NRC 2020; Pollution-Probe 2009; US-DOT 2020).
Furthermore, the sample calculation for the year 2000–2001
is also shown in Table 2.
The rising trend in Fig. 5 shows that there is a constant
increase in C
­ O2 emissions. Emissions estimated for the year
2000–2001 are 2.53 million tonnes. For the year 2018–2019,
it reaches 4.38 million tonnes. This increase in ­CO2 emissions is mainly due to the constant increase in the share of
truck-based freight transport. This uptake in ­CO2 emissions
and other GHG gases contributes significantly to deteriorating the air quality.
Fig. 5 Variation in the carbon
footprint of truck-based freight
transport
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4.1.2 Emissions from Rail‑Based Freight Transportation
The variations in estimated carbon emissions from rail-based
freight transport are shown in Fig. 6. It shows that carbon
emissions from rail-based freight transport are significantly
lower when compared with the emissions from truck-based
freight transport, due to the lower freight transported via
rail-based transport, and significantly lowers emission rates.
Table 2 shows that trains require 4.5 times less fuel in comparison with truck-based freight transport for per tonne-km
transport of freight.
4.1.3 Projections for Future Emissions
The ­CO2 emissions from freight transport are estimated
based on freight volume data. The freight volume for future
years can be projected using statistical techniques. Various
techniques have been proposed in the literature to project
trends from the observed data. Autoregression, moving
average, autoregressive moving average, autoregressive
integrated moving average (ARIMA), and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average are among the widely
used techniques for the prediction of time-series data.
Fig. 6 Variation in emissions
from rail-based freight transport
Fig. 7 Projection of freight
demand using ARIMA
13
Jebb et al. (2015) suggested using the ARIMA model for
its better prediction capability. The observed freight data
were modelled using ARIMA for the projection of freight
demand for a period of 10 years (2019–2029). Based on
available time-series data, ARIMA model fit with (p = 0,
d = 1 and q = 0). The model passed the Ljung–Box test
with X-squared = 0.619 and AIC = 94.12. Figure 7 shows
the range of predicted future freight transportation demand
based on existing temporal growth trend.
The total emissions from freight transport are determined
by adding the emissions from truck-based freight transport
and rail-based freight transport. For the projected period,
it is assumed that the share of truck-based and rail-based
freight transport is unaffected. The projected freight demand
and existing mode share are used to project the emissions
from freight transport, as shown in Fig. 8. Based on this
projection, the ­CO2 emissions from freight transport are estimated to be 5.40 million of ­CO2 for the year 2029, which
is approximately 20% uptake in ­CO2 emissions in a BAU
scenario.
The projected emissions provide a reference scenario,
i.e. BAU, which can be compared with the intervention scenario with some actions for reducing carbon emissions for
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
CO2 Emissions (M Tonnes)
Fig. 8 Projection of CO2 emissions from freight transport in
Pakistan
2601
Year
the future years. A similar strategy is adopted in a study
conducted in India (Dhar and Shukla 2015). The results of
the intervention can be evaluated for improvement in carbon
emissions from freight transport.
4.1.4 Intervention Scenario
The carbon emissions generated due to freight transport can
be significantly reduced by changing the mode of transport
from truck-based freight transport to rail-based freight transport, as the current share of rail-based freight transport is
significantly lower. Table 2 indicates that the fuel consumption in transporting freight through trains is 4.5 times lesser
than transportation through trucks. Private operators should
also be encouraged to operate on railways for freight transportation. Railways always have a competitive advantage of
lower costs for longer distances. The adoption of the multimodal system in which trains are used for longer distances
and trucks for shorter distances as well as covering those
routes that connect railway terminals has far better advantages. Therefore, the modal shift could start by considering
the freight that is currently transported over longer distances
where trains can achieve the targets at significantly lower
costs, moreover focusing on those areas where most of the
railway infrastructure is already present. Fossil fuels could
become scarcer and more expensive in the future. So, to
enhance the sustainability of freight transport in the long
term, successful policy reforms are likely to be needed. The
institutional framework generally comprises the ministries
that are responsible for the formulation of policies, plans,
and strategies. To achieve national targets, policy and institutional obstacles must be addressed (Arsalan 2015). Thus,
a significant reduction in ­CO2 emissions can be achieved
by gradually shifting the freight transport from truck-based
transportation to rail-based transportation.
An improvement scenario is proposed, in which railbased freight transport is gradually increased from the existing share of freight transport. During the year 2018–2019,
freight transport using railways was 8.71 billion tonnes-km,
which accounts for only 4.5% of total freight transport. Five
improvement scenarios have been proposed, based on the
assumption that the share of freight transport using the railway is annually increased. Starting from the rail share of
freight transport from 5% during the year 2018–2019, the
improvement scenario assumes that it becomes 15% during the year 2028–2029 based on an annual increment of
1%. Similarly, based on annual increment of 2%, 3%, 4%,
and 5%, the rail share during the year 2028–2029 becomes
25%, 35%, 45%, and 55%, respectively. Figure 9 compares
the projected emissions for the future 10 years of improvement and the BAU scenario. Figure 9 shows that there is a
downfall in emissions as the share of rail increases. Also, it
shows that in scenarios 3, 4, and 5, despite the increase in
overall freight demand annually, the emissions are reducing
in the intervention scenarios. There is a significant reduction
in emissions in scenario 5, i.e. from 4.2 million tonnes in
2019–2020 to 3.07 million tonnes in 2028–2029. The comparison of emissions for the year 2028–2029 in scenario 5
shows a reduction of about 43% in comparison with the BAU
scenario. This is due to the highest shift of freight demand
from truck-based freight transportation to rail-based freight
transportation, which is a low carbon emission-intensive and
more environmentally friendly mode of freight transport.
13
2602
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
Fig. 9 Comparison of emissions in improvement scenario with a business-as-usual scenario
4.2 Economic Analysis
4.2.1 The Line‑Haul Cost of Road and Rail‑Based Freight
Transportation
The average fuel price and average transportation cost using
the two modes are listed in Table 3. The yearly cost of freight
transportation is obtained by multiplication of average fuel
cost per tonne-km with the annual volume of freight transported using the mode of transport. Figures 10 and 11 show
variations in the line-haul cost of freight transportation using
trucks and trains, respectively. The comparison of line-haul
Table 3 Cost of fuel per tonne-km
Year
2000–2001
2001–2002
2002–2003
2003–2004
2004–2005
2005–2006
2006–2007
2007–2008
2008–2009
2009–2010
2010–2011
2011–2012
2012–2013
2013–2014
2014–2015
2015–2016
2016–2017
2017–2018
2018–2019
Annual average cost of
fuel (Rs./litre)
Cost per tonne-km
Truck
Trains
15.25
15.25
21.24
21.24
24.48
33.50
36.81
42.78
60.31
67.91
84.98
101.13
108.24
111.48
93.70
79.77
78.90
90.17
115.97
0.136
0.136
0.190
0.190
0.219
0.299
0.329
0.382
0.538
0.606
0.759
0.903
0.966
0.995
0.837
0.712
0.704
0.805
1.035
0.024
0.024
0.033
0.033
0.038
0.052
0.058
0.067
0.094
0.106
0.133
0.158
0.169
0.174
0.146
0.125
0.123
0.141
0.181
13
cost shows that the line-haul cost via trucks is much greater
than the cost of freight transportation via trains, which is
due to the lesser fuel consumption per tonne-km of trains.
The trend in Fig. 10 shows that there is a constant increase
in the cost of operation of road-based freight transportation
because of an increase in both prices and fuel consumption.
The highest cost of freight transport was observed for the
year 2013–2014, which is due to the higher price of fuel.
Furthermore, during the years 2012–2013 and 2013–2014,
the share of freight transport using trucks was at the highest
point.
However, the varying trend in Fig. 11 shows that the cost
of freight transport via trains is significantly lesser than
trucks and is almost negligible in the years 2011–2012 and
2012–2013. This is because the share of freight volume at
that period is nearly zero. During the last 4 years, an increasing trend in transport through railways is observed.
The total internal cost of freight transport for 2018–19
is estimated to be PKR 193 Billion, which is around USD
1.2 Billion. Most of the fuel in Pakistan is imported, and a
higher fuel import bill contributes to the depletion of foreign
exchange reserves, which negatively affects the economic
conditions.
4.2.2 Intervention Scenario
The impact of the intervention scenario on the line-haul cost
of freight transportation shows a significant reduction. As
mentioned earlier, trains offer economies of scale because
of their greater loading capacity, and therefore, the per-unit
cost of rail-based freight transportation is much lower than
road-based freight transportation. In the BAU scenario,
it is assumed that the share of road-based and rail-based
freight volume is the same as in the year 2018–2019 for the
next 10 years. Also, it is assumed that the price of fuel in
the year 2018–2019 is the same for the next 10 years. Figure 12 shows the comparison of the line-haul cost of freight
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
2018-19
2017-18
2016-17
2015-16
2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
1.80
Transport Cost (Billion Rupees)
Fig. 11 The line-haul cost of
rail-based freight transportation
2002-03
0.00
2001-02
50.00
2000-01
Transport Cost (Billion Rupees)
Fig. 10 The line-haul cost of
road-based freight transportation
2603
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Fig. 12 Comparison of the line-haul cost of freight transportation in business-as-usual and proposed intervention scenario
13
2604
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
transportation in the BAU scenario and the proposed intervention scenarios.
It can be observed from Fig. 12 that the cost is constantly
increasing in the BAU scenario because the greater share is
being taken up by trucks that consume greater fuel and ultimately increase the cost of operations. It shows that there is
a cost reduction compared to the BAU scenario when there is
a shift from road to rail-based freight transport. Scenarios 3,
4, and 5 show that the cost is uniformly decreasing, despite
a constant increase in overall freight transportation demand.
The reason for this decrease is the increase in the share of
rail-based freight transportation. The comparison of scenarios indicates that there is a significant difference in the operational cost in BAU and proposed intervention scenarios,
specifically scenario 5. This difference increases annually as
the share of rail-based freight transportation increases and
becomes almost 100 Billion rupees in the year 2028–2029 in
scenario 5. The comparison of costs for the year 2028–2029
in scenario 5 shows a reduction of about 43% in comparison
with the BAU scenario Thus, a significant amount of foreign
exchange reserves can be saved by transferring freight transport to a more sustainable mode of transport.
4.3 Social Analysis
Transportation, particularly freight transportation, can have
significant social impacts that can be either positive or
negative and which may affect the sustainability of freight
transportation. These include community interaction and livability, aesthetics, human health effects, inequity of impacts,
and mobility disadvantages (Litman and Burwell 2006). In
Pakistan, the main route of freight transportation passes
through areas with inhabitants from significantly different
ethnic and socioeconomic backgrounds.
Freight transport reforms, as proposed in the improvement scenario, may impact the ethnic equilibrium mainly
because of an increase in migration, which may result in
ethnic conflicts. In the case of Pakistan, the increase in
truck-based freight transport increased violent accidents
in Sindh, Punjab, and Gilgit-Baltistan, while a substantial
decline was observed in KPK’s settled area (SATP 2010).
A particular ethnic group dominates the trucking and road
transport sectors, whose low-skilled workers are employed
at the two major seaports of Karachi. This group may be
affected if any reforms take place in the freight transportation sector. However, as proposed in the improvement scenario, a gradual increase in rail-based freight transport share
would ensure their transition to other available opportunities.
The proposed intervention scenario and reforms in freight
transportation may ensure that freight transportation creates
equal opportunities for labour and low-skilled workers from
all ethnic communities. The modal shift to railway-based
13
freight transport can also affect the migration patterns and
composition at the national level (TRTA 2016).
Road safety is another social issue that is associated with
freight transportation, particularly road-based freight transportation. The interaction of humans and other vehicles with
trucks is more probable than their interaction with trains.
That is why the chances of injuries and fatalities are more
likely in road-based freight transportation. Furthermore, the
presence of heavy vehicles increases the modal and speed
heterogeneity of the traffic streams, which has been proven
to contribute to road accidents. Moreover, the rashness and
inattentive behaviour of drivers is also one of the major
causes of accidents in Pakistan (Gulzar et al. 2012). The total
number of accidents reported in Pakistan during 2017–2018
is 11,121 (GOP 2018). Commercial vehicles (both trucks
and buses) accounted for more than half (56%) of the 1,605
vehicles recorded as involved in the fatal crashes on the
national highway network during 2013–2016 (MoC 2018).
Furthermore, the transportation of hazardous material like
oil and chemicals is also riskier in road-based freight transportation as compared to rail-based freight transportation
(Sanchez-Triana and Afzal 2012).
Urban sprawl is another social issue, which correlates
with road transportation. Road-based freight transportation results in the creation and expansion of slums along
the highways. These slums and villages are formed due to
the informal economic activity and service areas associated
with road transportation.
4.4 Sustainability Indicators
Indicators help in identifying the level of sustainability. It
indicates how much sustainability has been achieved and
how much work needs to be carried out to achieve sustainability in the proposed duration. It also specifies the parameters on which the targeted work has to be done. In this paper,
seven selected indicators, as shown in Table 4, are classified
into three aspects of sustainability. Moreover, the possible
outcomes are summarized, which indicate the level of freight
transport sustainability achieved in Pakistan.
4.5 Sustainability Analysis
In this part of the analysis, a comparison is made between
road-based and rail-based freight transportation. The advantages and disadvantages of both modes in all three aspects
of sustainability are discussed in Table 5.
There are various advantages and disadvantages of both
modes of freight transportation. However, from a sustainability point of view, rail-based freight transportation is more
sustainable because of its greater advantages. Truck-based
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
2605
Table 4 Sustainability indicators
Sustainability aspect
Indicators
Possible outcome after intervention (shifting to rail-based freight transport)
Environment
Climate change emission
Resource efficiency
Cost efficiency
CO2 emissions will significantly be reduced
Non-renewable resource consumption will significantly be reduced
Transportation costs as a portion of total economic activity, and per unit of GDP will be
reduced
Speed and capacity of freight transport will be increased
Freight traffic congestion delay will be reduced
Per capita, crash disabilities and fatalities will be reduced
The degree to which transport activities support community liveability objectives (local
environmental quality) will be improved
Economic
Social
Freight efficiency
Congestion delay
Safety
Community liveability
freight transportation is suitable for shorter distances
because of its lower loading capacity. Still, it produces
considerable social, environmental, and economic issues.
Among these, safety hazards, concentrated emissions, ethnic
conflicts, and more fuel consumption per tonne-km are notable. Currently, a significant share of freight transportation
is taken by trucks that affect sustainability. On the contrary,
shifting towards a more sustainable mode, i.e. rail-based
freight transportation, eliminates a significant number of
sustainability issues. It has more advantages, mainly because
of its greater loading capacity and higher speed.
5 Conclusions
This paper shows that freight transport in Pakistan is predominantly based on road-based transportation, and its
significant share has been taken up by the trucking sector,
whereas railways are transporting a very small share of the
total freight demand. Moreover, due to the constant increase
in the share of road-freight transport through the trucking
sector, there is an uptake of carbon emissions and GHG
resulting from freight transportation as emission per one
tonne-km for truck is relatively higher than rail.
The estimated C
­ O2 emissions in the year 2018–2019 from
truck-based freight transportation are 4.38 million tonnes. It
is also estimated that freight transportation volume will grow
because of the increase in population and economic activity.
This will ultimately increase ­CO2 emissions along with the
internal cost of transportation because of greater fuel consumption in business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Therefore,
this study suggests a mitigation scenario, which is to shift
freight transport from trucks to trains. A significant reduction in ­CO2 emissions will be observed if around 50% of the
freight volume will be transported using railways in the next
10 years. The reduction in the value in C
­ O2 emissions for
the year 2028–2029 is estimated at around 3 million tonnes
(43%).
The average annual line-haul transportation cost for road
and rail-based freight transportation has also been determined. The fuel cost of transportation in the BAU scenario
is compared with the proposed intervention scenarios. The
results showed a significant decrease in the internal cost
of transportation despite the increase in freight volume.
In intervention scenario 5, the operating cost for the year
2028–2029 is estimated as 135 Billion rupees as compared
to 235 Billion rupees, a reduction of 43% in the BAU scenario. In addition to the cost and emissions, social factors
associated with the two modes of freight transport are also
analysed. This research is limited to the estimation of only
line-haul cost, and other components of the cost, such as
maintenance, handling, and operation costs, are not considered due to the lack of available data. A future study may be
focused on determining all the cost components for freight
transport.
The higher share of the trucking sector in freight transport is Pakistan as a result of the lack of infrastructure and
operational capacity in the railways. The existing infrastructure of railways barely meets the requirements of passenger
demand, which leaves fewer resources for the transportation
of freight. The lack of cargo handling facilities at major railway stations also makes it unfeasible for the transportation
companies to use railways for the transportation of goods.
Furthermore, the policymakers have been prioritizing the
construction of motorways over improving the rail network,
while the rail network exists with insufficient capacity to
cater the passenger transport. Constructions of motorways
will improve the travel time of freight transport through
roads and may cause a further shift towards road-based
freight transport.
The operationalization of Gwadar deep seaport and CPEC will
enormously increase the demand for freight transport through
Pakistan. This provides an opportunity for the policymakers to
improve the operations of the Pakistan Railways and increase its
capacity. The planned infrastructure under CPEC which includes
rehabilitation and up-gradation of Karachi–Lahore–Peshawar
13
13
Train Transportation
Fewer emissions, fewer delays, and no congestion
(Birol 2019)
Lower accessibility, fewer business opportunities as
Not feasible for short distances due to lower accessibilcompared to trucks (Sanchez-Triana and Afzal 2012)
ity, more transfer points (Zgonc et al. 2019)
More fuel consumption per tonne-km and higher fuel
Pose danger to other road users, contribute to traffic
import bill, damage to roads, more cost of freight
congestion on highways, contributes to the spread of
transport
diseases (Sanchez-Triana and Afzal 2012)
Cons
Truck Transportation Higher emissions per ton per km (A. J. R. p. f. t. C. C.
W. G. o. t. C. f. I. T. McKinnon, 2007), emissions
due to
a) Lesser Capacity
b) Traffic congestion
Train transportation May create noise problems if passes through the
urbanized corridor (Paožalytė et al. 2011)
Suitable for a short distance, business development
along the route (Zgonc et al. 2019)
Cultural integration, employment opportunities and
small business for less-educated citizens (SanchezTriana and Afzal 2012)
Safer mode with fewer accidents (Forkenbrock and
Practice 2001)
Pros
Truck Transportation Eco-friendly trucks provide door-to-door services
(Ovais 2016)
Economic
Environment
Social
Less cost of fuel per tonne-km, less import bill for the
country, higher capacity, higher mobility
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering (2022) 46:2593–2608
Table 5 Comparison of road and rail-based freight transportation in terms of sustainability
2606
(ML-1) Railway Track, the launch of freight train service from
Gwadar to Khunjerab (Pakistan–China Border Pass), and the first
private rail freight operator is expected to improve the competitiveness of the railways through which the proposed improvement scenario can be achieved.
Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is an important social goal to mitigate climate change. To achieve substantial transportation GHG reduction, s single transportation strategy would not be enough. However, combinations
of strategies are possible so that each of the strategies can
have significant reinforcing effects with others. The concerned authorities must prepare the freight transportation
upgradation and modal shifting policies accordingly to make
the freight transport in Pakistan environmentally, economically, and socially more sustainable.
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