The impact of the Betuweroute freight railway on the prices of surrounding real estate properties Course: RESEARCH PROJECT: REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS & FINANCE By: Thijs Postema / 2703420 Sebastian Domenici / 2791028 Janick Schütz / 2791578 Noah Kordić / 2712026 February, 2023 Amsterdam, The Netherlands 1 1. Introduction Transportation services play a vital role in the process of delivering raw and intermediate materials to producers and delivering final products to retailers and final customers (Meitzen et al., 2012). A firm that can provide its customers with the most reliable, affordable, and timely service gains a competitive advantage over rivals. By constructing The Betuweroute freight railway, Netherlands aims, among other objectives, to ensure that the port Rotterdam maintains its lead over Hamburg, Le Havre and Antwerp over the long run (Koetse & Rouwendal, 2008). It will do so by providing the companies in the German mainland and the rest of Europe with an ecologically friendly, compared to transport by trucks or inland waterways, reliable and fast way of receiving the materials and products. The Betuweroute is a double-track Dutch freight railway line. It runs from the Maasvlakte near Rotterdam to the Zevenaar , where it connects to the German railway network via the existing Arnhem – Emmerich connection. The line is 160 kilometers long, of which 95 kilometers are bundled with the A15 motorway. There are 160 kilometers (single-sided) of noise barriers; 7.5 kilometers of the line is sunken, and 12 kilometers is a total of 130 viaducts and bridges. The line also contains 5 tunnels, 190 fauna passages, 155 points, and 4 movable flood defenses (Wikipedia-bijdragers, 2022). Its name is taken from a district in central Netherlands through which the line passes. This route was opened in 2007 at a cost of €4.7bn. Freight transportation projects result in unequal cost and benefit distribution across regions. Furthermore, they have both direct and indirect economic consequences. We will be focusing on the impact that the construction of The Betuweroute freight railway had on the value of residential real estate properties in nearby areas. The project's explicit cost is measured in billions of euros, and the implicit gain or cost realized from potential changes in property prices is critical in evaluating the project's financial viability. Determining the scale of the effect caused by externalities on housing prices will carry, as well, large implications for future considerations of similar projects (Levkovich, Rouwendal, & van Marwijk, 2015). New or upgraded infrastructure may have a negative impact on the rental appeal or capital growth potential of a prospective property along the route (Clark, 2005). The reasoning behind it is that the most important advantages of improved passenger transportation, such as improved mobility of the residents, are lost with cargo transportation, as the access points are not directly used by residential property owners (Simons & El Jaouhari, 2004). However, the negative effects of such transport routes are still present along the route. Railroad tracks increase noise pollution, hinder mobility in direction opposite of the track and may have negative aesthetic effects for the residents in close proximity, leading to a decrease in 2 prices of bordering properties (Strand & Vågnes, 2001). Overall, the impact on house prices that the construction of freight transport projects brings is unclear. The scarcity of literature covering the impact of construction of freight railway on nearby real estate prices only adds to the importance of our findings. Therefore, this paper aims to bring more clarity by answering the research question: How did the construction of The Betuweroute freight railway impact the real estate prices of surrounding properties? We use the hedonic price model, the most commonly used method to determine the price of a property as a function of its attributes in the housing market literature (Rosen, 1974). We test the hypothesis: The construction of The Betuweroute freight railway had a small but negative effect on the value of properties located along the route. By using this model, we control for different house characteristics because it treats a specific property as a composite of characteristics to which value can be attached. This paper is structured as follows. Section 2 summarizes the existing literature on this subject. Section 3 describes data sources and datasets utilized in the research and the constructed method. Section 4 presents the results of our analysis. Finally, section 5 brings the conclusion, including possible limitations and extensions to our work. 2. Literature review Impacts of rail transit on property values As stated in the introduction, there is little literature on the dominant group of externalities and their effects on house prices. We will discuss the literature that is relevant for our research question here. The main focus of this literature review will be on the impact of a (freight) railroad on real estate prices near the train track. The effect of freight railroad tracks and train activity on residential property values This paper examines the effect of freight railway infrastructure projects on the value of residential properties. Freight railroads can basically be viewed as regular railroads without access to transit infrastructure. Therefore, freight railways do not affect the transportation cost, nor the transportation time of property owners. Consequently, the main driver for the increase in property value disappears whereas 3 all the negative externalities such as noise and pollution nuisances, fear of accidents and a less idyllic scenery remain (Simons & El Jaouhari, 2004). The paper of Simons and El Jaouhari (2004) analyses the “before” and “after” effect of reconfiguring the freight carrying railroad lines in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, and its effect on the value of single-family homes. Their study concludes that rail traffic, not just proximity to tracks, impacts the value of residential properties. Besides the railroad tracks, there are other linear land uses such as roads, high-voltage overhead electrical transmission lines and pipelines. Hughes and Sirmans (1992) conducted a study in Baton Rouge, Louisiana on the effect of roads with an annual average daily traffic of 1000 cars (AADT) on home prices. They found that an AADT in the city center decreases the residential property value by 1% whereas an AADT in a suburban area decreases the residential property value by 0.5%. A similar study conducted by Colwell (1990) found out that high-voltage overhead electrical transmission lines (HVOTL) in proximity to a residential property will decrease the value of it by 5%-8%. Last but not least, Simons (1999) examined the impact of a pipeline rupture on the value of uncontaminated residential properties in a study conducted in Fairfax County, Virginia. The finding of the study is that a rupture in a pipeline decreases the uncontaminated residential property value by 4% to 5%. This is relevant to the research question in this paper as it shows that real estate prices are sensitive to other (linear) infrastructure investments, besides freight railroads, where the added value of the infrastructure does not benefit the residence immediately. Therefore, proximity to such sites has a negative effect on the value of the property. The spatial effect of infrastructure development on the real estate price To investigate the effect the freight railway Betuweroute had on the development of real estate prices in the municipalities through which the railway line runs, we will compare this project with the analysis of Chen et al. (2022) on the spatial effect of infrastructure development on the real estate price in the Yangtze river delta. They explored how urban infrastructure development affects real estate prices. The researchers used a spatial panel model to calculate this effect. The main variables that were used to examine this spatial effect were the real estate prices (RSP), infrastructure development level (IDL), industrial structure (IS), city size (CZ), land transfer price (LTP), per capita disposable income of urban residents (INC) and the credit scale (CS) (Chen et al., 2022). According to Liu, Chen, Huang, and Deng (2022) the spatial panel model suggests that the closer the geographic distance between cities, the stronger the spatial correlation of urban real estate prices when 4 considering the integration of the regional economic development and geographic proximity between cities (Liu et al., 2022). As found out by Chen et al. (2022), urban infrastructure construction can significantly affect real estate prices as the demand form real estate increases as infrastructure development increase. This this effect is influenced by geographical location. Therefore, we have decided to investigate the effect of transportation infrastructure, specifically The Betuweroute on the real estate prices in the Netherlands. When analysing the indirect effect of the infrastructure investment Chen et al. (2022) concluded that: “The rapid construction of urban infrastructure can promote the increase of real estate prices in other regions when considering the spatial correlation of urban geography, economy and other factors” (Chen et al., 2022, p.15). This is an important factor that should be taken into account when comparing the rise of real estate prices in regions close to The Betuweroute with the rise of real estate prices in regions that are further away from this route. It might be the case that the construction of The Betuweroute also influences the real estate prices of the regions that do not directly connect to The Betuweroute. The increase of real estate prices in other regions can be caused by the “feedback effect” and the “diffusion effect”. The feedback effect, also called direct effect, is the implications of infrastructure projects on house prices in other (close by) municipalities, which then effects the investments and real estate values in the own municipality. Whereas the diffusion effect describes the scenario where investments in a central municipality also benefits the surrounding municipalities due to increased economic conditions (Chen et al., 2022). Chen et al. conclude that urban infrastructure constructions can have a significant positive impact on the real estate prices when comparing the results of the panel and spatial panel model. However, among the control variables, city size and disposable income have an economical significant strong influence on the real estate prices (Chen et al., 2022). Both, an increase in city size and in disposable income, will increase the demand for real estate. As the supply of real estate typically only adjust over time an increased demand leads therefore to higher prices in (at least) the short-term. It is important to discuss that transit infrastructure has a fundamentally different effect on real estate prices than freight rail infrastructure. Economic theory suggests that accessibility to an efficient transportation system increases residential property value. The efficiency of a transportation system is defined by the transportation cost and the commuting time. This relationship was first noted by Thünen (1826) as the compensation principal. As the transportation cost falls it allows the economic agent to spend more money on housing, therefore, bidding up the rents/prices of properties which are located in 5 low transportation cost areas. This principal is the underlying assumption for the land value/density gradient. Several studies on the matter confirm that an improved (railway) infrastructure and its accessibility improve the value of residential properties (Damm, Lerman, & Lerner-Lam, 1980; Duncan, 2008). These studies do not examine the proximity to a railway itself but the proximity to transit infrastructure. However, not only residential properties benefit from an improved transportation system, office and industrial properties profit from it as well. Those benefits arise from the increased labour market to which the businesses have access to. The increase in value for office buildings is larger compared to industrial properties as office buildings cluster a larger amount of labour (Diaz & Mclean, 1999). Infrastructure projects often take several years until construction is finalized. Therefore, the paper by Yiu and Wong (2005) examined the effect of expected infrastructure improvements and discovered that on the basis of the Rational Expectation Theory a rational investor will take all the available information, including future improvements into consideration when valuing a property. Therefore, also expected infrastructure increments will lead to an appreciation in property value. The effect of the noise of trains on real estate prices. The Rapoza, Rickley, and Raslear (1999) study found that train horn noise causes the greatest annoyance to residents within about 300 meters of a freight train line. However, to simply forbid the train horns might not be a good idea after all as a study carried out by Aurelius and Korobow (1971) found out that the use of railroad horns in combination with wayside signal horns may reduce accidents by 69%. This might not be the case for a freight railroad in the Netherlands as level crossings are guarded and automated. Therefore, the use of the horn can be limited. Noise of train tracks influences real estate prices (Rapoza et al., 1999; Simons & El Jaouhari, 2004). Some other studies discuss the impact that the development of infrastructure, location of the dwellings and the urban rail noise has on the rail estate prices. Chen, Zhang, Zhou, and Ding (2022) argued that infrastructure development leads to an increase in economic activities and therefore to an increase in annual GDP. This increase in activity and GDP leads to a appreciation of real estate prices. However, Szczepańska, Senetra, and Wasilewicz-Pszczółkowska (2020) stated in their article that this development has a negative effect. The reason for this negative effect is the noise that is caused by the use of the infrastructure. In their study they analysed three residential districts in the city of Olsztyn in north-eastern Poland. By using a linear correlation analysis, they showed that there is a negative correlation between apartment price and traffic noise. However, other infrastructure developments, like the construction of a ring road and subways, could have a positive effect (Szczepańska et al., 2020). 6 This conclusion is supported by Le Boennec and Salladarre (2021). They found that noise can influence real estate prices significantly and is dependent on the location of the residence. In their paper they used a simultaneous equation model to tested if and how environmental variables, such as air pollution and noise, could affect housing prices in Nantes. They stated that noise is directly perceptible, but do not provide evidence that supports this statement. In order to get this information, they proposed a study that takes those environmental elements into account (Le Boennec & Salladarre, 2021). A study that estimates the influence of noise on real estate prices more accurately is done by Chang and Kim (2013). They studied the effects of urban rail noise in Seoul (South Korea). By using a hedonic pricing model, they estimated that the property value decreases with 0.53% per unit increase in dB(A). The main goal of this study was to improve the guidelines of transport valuation. These guidelines advise to calculate the maintenance cost and construction of special walls that reduce noise (Chang & Kim, 2013). 3. Methodology In order to investigate the effect of the Betuweroute on the real estate prices in its vicinity, a hedonic pricing model is used. Hedonic pricing model allows for the identification of price factors based on the premise that the price is both determined by internal and external characteristics. This approach is suitable for our investigation as real estate prices are determined by a large number of both internal and external factors. Data The statistical analysis for this paper uses the (WoON (Woononderzoek Nederland), 2022) housing research in the Netherlands. This dataset is ideal for a hedonic pricing model as it contains a large number of measured variables for each observation (specific housing characteristics, municipality data, multiple years of observation), which allows for the implementation of a large number of control variables, which is of a large benefit as determining causal relationships in the real estate sector can be rather inaccurate as real estate prices have a large number of internal and external price factors. (For a complete list of variables, see Appendix) The dataset contains observations from the years 2002-2015 excluding years 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013. For a yearly breakdown of observations, see Appendix. Sorting through data/Data manipulation 7 The dataset used has got 347 532 unique observations, however only about half of the datapoints are usable as only 176 166 unique observations contain price data. Therefore, a decision has been made to drop all the observations that do not contain price data, as those datapoints are irrelevant for the purpose of our investigation. Also, there were 2 observations with negative values for price, which were dropped as well, making the total unique observations total 176 164. Transformation of the dependent variable The dependent variable price is not approximately normally distributed, hence a new variable lnprice has been created. The logarithmic transformation of the dependent variable reduces skewness, reduces the relative weight of outliers, and makes the distribution of the dependent variable more symmetrical (approximately normally distributed). Having the dependent variable be in a logarithmic form also allows for the interpretation of the coefficients of the regression as elasticities. The distribution of the level and log prices can be found below in figures A and B respectively: Fig. A Fig. B Separation of treatment and control groups/Variable of interest creation A new dummy variable Betuweroute is generated which acts as an indicator for the municipalities that the Betuweroute railway goes through. The mapping of the municipalities has been done manually, with the use of Google Maps and information on the railway’s route from (Wikipedia-bijdragers, 2022). Also, the CBS municipality codes serve as a reference in the dataset to distinguish between municipalities, which enabled for the generation of the dummy variable, allowing for the separation of the dataset into treatment and control categories. 8 Summary Statistics Fig. C Variable Observations Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max. lnprice | Betuweroute = 0 168,163 12.44095 0.5037436 9.218807 14.75497 lnprice | Betuweroute = 1 8,001 12.33019 .5101833 9.386998 14.50915 Comparing the two sample groups of interest, we can notice a large disproportion in the number of observations between the two groups, which is logical as the ‘treatment’ group only consists of 15 municipalities. The mean ln (house price) is 0.89% bigger in the ‘control’ group municipalities. The control group consists of all the other municipalities in the Netherlands. A graphical distribution of the ln(house price) for the control and treatment groups is depicted below in Fig. D. Fig. D The control and treatment sample have a very similar distribution of ln (house prices) over all the available years of observation. Hedonic price regression To estimate the effect of the Betuweroute on real estate prices in the municipalities it goes through, a hedonic price regression (Regression 1) is constructed. Where lnprice is the dependent variable, Betuweroute is the independent variable of interest and the regression also contains 30 other control 9 variables controlling for year of observation, housing characteristics and municipality differences, which are depicted by the vector X in the equation 1 below. Equation 1: ln(𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑖 ) = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝐵𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑖 + 𝜃𝑿𝒊 + 𝜀𝑖 Regression 1 (1) VARIABLES lnprice Betuweroute -0.0618*** (0.00423) mun 1.35e-05*** (1.87e-06) unsafe 0.916*** (0.0281) size 0.00107*** (2.04e-05) floor -0.0124*** (0.00127) elevator 0.176*** (0.00571) garage 0.144*** (0.00242) centralheating 0.0647*** (0.00503) rooms 0.0755*** (0.00201) maintgood 0.108*** (0.00374) Constant 11.37*** 10 (0.0228) Observations R-squared 176,164 0.388 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 **** A complete list of estimators from Regression 1 can be found in the Appendix 4. Results From Regression 1, it can be concluded that house prices in the Betuweroute municipalities are on average 6.18% smaller than in the municipalities in the rest of the Netherlands. To elaborate, municipalities that the Betuweroute goes through on average experience a 6.18% loss in residential real estate prices ceterisparibus, this result is statistically significant at 1% α. One of the most important assumptions for this model, for the result to be interpreted as causality, is that the two samples (treatment and control) are both to be representative of the population and each other. This assumption in reality is however questionable. Fig. D supports this assumption, showing that the ln(price) distribution of real estate prices over years of observations seem to be very similar for both groups. However, given the heterogeneity of real estate and the limited data available, this assumption can cause internal validity problems. Omitted variable bias is also a very probable source of internal validity issues. As already mentioned, Regression 1 is based on an imperfect data source, which only accounts for some real estate price factors such as housing characteristics, however real estate prices have a large number of both internal and external price factors which are not accounted for in Regression 1, which could be correlated with some of the regressors, leading to biased estimates. The integrity of a hedonic pricing model can be questioned as well. Although it is suitable for the determination of price of products with multiple price factors, as it considers both internal and external factors, it also has a number of significant drawbacks. Hedonic pricing is only able to capture the consumers’ willingness to pay for what are regarded as environmental factors and their subsequent outcomes. This is further dependent on the consumers’ ability to perceive these environmental factors in order for the hedonic pricing model to pick up on them, which in the case of Betuweroute is questionable. 5. Conclusion 11 The statistical analysis comes to a conclusion that the construction and use of Betuweroute freight railway has got a negative effect on real estate prices in the proximity of the railway on a municipality-based scale. The negative effect is of 6.18%. This conclusion coincides with our hypothesis established in the introduction. The causality of this effect is rather questionable as mentioned before due to a number of potential sources for endogeneity in Regression 1. This finding coincides with our hypothesis that the railway track would negatively affect the real estate prices in its proximity due to the negative external effects its produces, such as noise pollution, aesthetics pollution and other forms of negative externalities. This proves as a helpful indicator for policy makers and the transportation practitioners in general. Based on the findings in this paper, there should be an incentive to construct freight railway networks away from residentially occupied land to minimize the negative externalities it produces. This however is easier said than done, as accommodating for this advice can lead to other unforeseen consequences which could, due to the construction of railway lines away from populated areas, lead to other negative external effects and other inefficiencies. Avoiding populated areas for the construction of freight transportation networks could result in a rise in the construction costs of infrastructure projects, as it is typically easier and less costly to build new infrastructure as an addition to already existing infrastructure from a logistical standpoint, hence building transportation (non-passenger) infrastructure along populated areas is quite common. Relation of conclusion to the literature review. Overall, the conclusions is supported by most literature. The negative effect of the fright railway, of 6.18%, can partially be explained by the paper of Chang and Kim (2013). However, that Chang and Kim measured a decrease of 0.53% of the property value per unit increase in dB (A) does not mean that the increase in noise is 6.18% / 0.53% = 11.66 dB(A). Other variables that could explain the negative effect are the city size and disposable income, since they have an economical significant strong influence on the real estate prices (Chen et al., 2022). The feedback effect and the diffusion effect are less likely to explain this decrease, since these effects should cause a rise of real estate prices. This means that our decrease in property value is not in line with all the literature. Several other studies suggest that the construction of train tracks will increase the prices of residences as stated in the literature review. Limitations The real estate market is one of the most complex economical markets to exist, which certainly puts into question the predictive power of predictive models. Real estate prices have a large number of price 12 determinants, which makes accurate predictions extremely hard to create. Even though the regression analysis in this paper contains a fairly large number of control variables, internal validity of the regression is not certain. This makes it hard to establish any concrete conclusions about causality of the Betuweroute on real estate prices. The use of municipality data as a proxy for geographical location data in relation to the Betuweroute is also rather imprecise. It would be more suitable to use a higher degree of precision via for example postal code data, which would allow for a more accurate distance measurements of the real estate in question in relation to the freight railway line. The Betuweroute has been open for operation in 2007, which is also a period in which the world real estate market experienced some trouble due to the real estate market and financial market crash in the United States. This adds another layer of complexity to real estate price movements, which is a possible source of further inaccuracy in our regression analysis. This fact also highlights the issue of omitted variable bias, as Regression 1 does not fully account for macroeconomic price factors. This further undermines the validity of our findings. Expanding on research One of the main weaknesses of this research is the imprecision of the geographical data used in the hedonic pricing model. Therefore, it is also one of the areas that could be improved upon the most. We suggest that using postal code data would be ideal, as it would allow for a more precise distance calculations of the real estate in question to the railway line. A much more precise variable measuring the geographical distance of an individual real estate property to the railway line could then be created with a much smaller measurement error, as postal codes in the Netherlands tend to be much more spatially tightly packed, when compared to the scale of municipalities. This would then allow for the regression of real estate prices on the distance of real estate properties from the Betuweroute, allowing us to estimate the effect of distance from the Betuweroute on real estate prices. This would provide much more of a concrete conclusion, along with higher degree of precision and accuracy of the results. Distinguishing between how industrial transportation affects different real estate sectors (residential, industrial, commercial) would be a nice expansion on our research as well. It would be a helpful expansion, as it would inform policy makers on the overall picture of how transportation infrastructure affects different real estate sectors, allowing for a more efficient planning of future projects. We could hypothesize that commercial and industrial real estate would internalize the negative externality from freight railway less than residential real estate, because we would expect noise pollution for example to be 13 of a lesser importance to industrial and commercial real estate owners than for residential real estate owners. 14 6. References Aurelius, J. P., & Korobow, N. (1971). The visibility and audibility of trains approaching railhighway grade crossings(No. Final Rpt). Chang, J. S., & Kim, D. J. (2013). Hedonic estimates of rail noise in Seoul. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 19, 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2012.11.002 Chen, H., Zhang, Y., Zhang, N., Zhou, M., & Ding, H. (2022). 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Appendix List of variables in used dataset (WoON (Woononderzoek Nederland), 2022): Variable id mun Employed Hoursworked satisfaction move unsafe income kids single singlewkids foreign age price pricesqm woz wozsqm size type_appartment type_terraced type_semidetached type_detached floor floorsbuilding elevator garage centralheating rooms maintgood constryear constrlt1945 constr19451959 constr19601970 constr19711980 constr19811990 constr19912000 constrgt2000 Description unique respondent id municipality code employed hours worked per week satisfaction with living environment (0=bad, 1=good) individual intends to move (=1) share of people in neighbourhood that feels unsafe gross yearly income of individual (in €) household has kids person is single individual is single with kids person is foreign-born age of individual price of the house (sales place) (in €) house price per m2 (in €) assessed 'woz' value (in €) assessed value per m2 (in €) size of the property house type - apartment house type - terraced house type - semi-detached house type - detached floor of the property number of floors of the building building has elevator property has garage property has central heating number of rooms in property maintenance quality is good construction year of the property construction year of the property, 1945 construction year of the property, 1945-1959 construction year of the property, 1960-1970 construction year of the property, 1970-1980 construction year of the property, 1981-1990 construction year of the property, 1991-2000 construction year of the property, />2000 18 year year_2002 year_2003 year_2005 year_2006 year_2008 year_2009 year_2011 year_2012 year_2014 year_2015 publhousing xcoord ycoord munname shhhwkids areaha shluresidential shlucommercial shluindustrial shluopenspace shluwater shluinfrastructure unsafe_count year of observation year of observation, 2002 year of observation, 2003 year of observation, 2005 year of observation, 2006 year of observation, 2008 year of observation, 2009 year of observation, 2011 year of observation, 2012 year of observation, 2014 year of observation, 2015 property is part of public housing x-coordinate of centroid y-coordinate of centroid name of municipality share household with kids areaha share residential land share commercial land share industrial land share open space share water share land used for infrastructure Number of observations in each year 2002-2015 (excluding 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013) Year 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 2014 2015 Number of observations 32215 3736 21,778 8474 12240 26984 16434 20428 16730 17145 19 List of predictor variables used in Regression 1 Dependent variable: lnprice Independent variable of interest: Betuweroute Control variables: year_2002, year_2003, year_2005, year_2006, year_2008, year_2009, year_2011, year_2012, year_2014, year_2015, mun, unsafe, size, type_appartment, type_terraced, type_semidetached, type_detached, floor, elevator, garage, centralheating, rooms, maintgood, constrlt1945, constr19451959, constr19601970, constr19711980, constr19811990, constr19912000, constrgt2000 Stata Regression 1 output 20