Table of Contents Chapter Quiz 1 Introduction to Engineering Economy Analysis for Compounding Periods Not Equal to Payments Arithmetic Gradient Series Bond Valuation Bond Valuation Problem Set Derivation of Linear Gradient Formulas Financing Decisions Interest and Money – Time Relationships Part I Interest and Money – Time Relationships Part II Selections in Present Economy Selections in Present Economy Problem Set Quiz 2 Depreciation Applications of Money-Time Relationships Applications of Money-Time Relationships for Multi-Business Project Analysis Interest and Money-Time Relationship Problem Set Evaluating Single Projects Problem Set Money-Time Relationships Problem Set Quiz 3 After Tax Cash Flow Analysis, Capital Gains (Loss) and Replacement Analysis Inflation Inflation Problem Set Risk in Capital Budgeting Risk in Capital Budgeting Problem Set Dealing with Uncertainty Page 1 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 20 22 25 29 33 38 42 43 46 49 52 53 55 60 61 INTRODUCTION TO ENGINEERING ECONOMY Engineering economy – The science that deals with the study of how economic theories and laws are used to solve engineering problems. – Discipline concerned with the economic aspects of engineering and involves the systematic evaluation of the costs and benefits of proposed technical and business projects and ventures. – To be economically acceptable (affordable), solutions to engineering problems must demonstrate a positive balance of long term benefits over long term costs and they must also: Promote the well being and survival of the organization Embody creative and innovative technology and ideas Permit identification and scrutiny of their estimated outcomes Translate profitability to the “bottom line” through a valid and acceptable measure of merit. Applications of Engineering Economy 1. Set additional objectives or uses for a particular product or multi-product 2. Discover key factors for the success/failure of the company 3. Comparison of alternatives 4. Analysis of investment of capital Principles of Engineering Economy 1. Develop the alternatives. The choice is among alternatives. The alternatives need to be identified and then defined for subsequent analysis. 2. Focus on the differences Only the differences in expected future outcomes among the alternatives are relevant to their comparison and should be considered in the decision. 3. Use a consistent point of view The prospective outcomes of the alternatives economic and other, should be consistently developed from a defined viewpoint (perspective). 4. Use a common unit of measure Using a common unit of measurement to enumerate as many of the prospective outcomes as possible will make easier the analysis and comparison of the alternatives. 5. Consider all relevant criteria 1 Selection of a preferred alternative (decision making) requires the use of a criterion (or several criteria). The decision process should consider both the outcomes enumerated in the monetary unit and those expressed in some other unit of measurement or made explicit in a descriptive manner. 6. Make uncertainty explicit Uncertainty is inherent in projecting (or estimating) the future outcomes of the alternatives and should be recognized in these analysis and comparison. 7. Revisit your decisions Improved decision making results from an adaptive process; to the extent practicable, the initial projected outcomes of the selected alternative should be subsequently compared with actual results achieved. Procedure of Engineering Economic Analysis 1. Problem recognition, definition and evaluation 2. Development of feasible alternatives 3. Development of the cash flows for each alternative 4. Selection of a criterion 5. Analysis and comparison of alternatives 6. Selection of preferred alternative 7. Performance monitoring and post evaluation Accounting and Engineering Economy Studies General Accounting / Financial Accounting / Cost Accounting – Procedures that provide financial events relating to the investment to determine financial performance. – These accounting data are primarily concerned with past and current financial events even though such data are often used to make projections about the future. – Controls are established and utilized to aid in guiding the operation toward desired financial goals General Accounting – source of much of the past financial data needed in making estimates of future financial conditions. Accounting is also a source of data for analysis that might be made regarding how well the results of a capital investment turned out compared to the results that were predicted in the engineering economic analysis. Cost Accounting / Management Accounting – is a phase of accounting that is of particular importance because it is concerned principally with decision making and control in a firm 2 It is also the source of some of the cost data that are needed in engineering economic studies. Modern cost accounting may satisfy any or all of the following objectives: 1. Determination of the cost of products or services 2. Provision of a rational basis for pricing goods or services 3. Provision of a means for controlling expenditures 4. Provision of information on which operating decisions may be based and the results evaluated. ANALYSIS FOR COMPOUNDING PERIODS NOT EQUAL TO PAYMENTS Most Common Solution: Convert interest rate to a period equal to that of payment by using effective interest rate concept A. Compounding More Frequent Than Payments Suppose you make equal quarterly deposits of $1,000 into a fund that pays interest at a rate of 12% compounded monthly. Find the balance at the end of 2 years. First solution: convert interest period to payment period Second solution: convert payment period into interest period B. Compounding Less Frequent Than Payments Suppose you make P500 monthly deposits to a tax deferred retirement plan that pays interest at a rate of 10% compounded quarterly. Compute the balance at the end of 10 years. First solution: convert interest period to payment period Second solution: convert payment period into interest period Predictions and projections Data for projections in the future Engineering Economy - gives information on which decisions pertaining to the FUTURE operation of an organization can be based Accounting 3 - is concerned with the past and current financial events so that the financial performance can be determined. ARITHMETIC GRADIENT SERIES (Applicable to price changes due to inflation) 2 3 n-1 C(1+g) 4 C(1+g) 2 C(1+g) C(1+g) C 1 n-2 Derivation of Formulas: n-1 n P F P C 1 i C 1 g 1 i ... C 1 g 1 2 C 1 g C C 1 g ... n 1 i 1 i 1 i 2 n 1 n 1 1 1 g 1 g C ... 2 n 1 i 1 i 1 i Multiply 1 by n 1 1 1 g 1 g 4 1 i n g = rate of increase 2 n 1 g C 1 g 1 g P ... 2 n 1 g 1 i 1 i 1 i 1 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 43 Sum of Geometric Sequence a 1 g 1 i n 1 g 1 i 1 g n 1 C 1 g 1 i 1 g 1 i 1 g 1 1 i n n C 1 g 1 i 1 1 i 1 g 1 i 1 i 1 g n 1 i n 1 C if g i g i But if g i ; Cn 1 g For Future Worth Value: P if i g 1 g n 1 i n 1 n F C 1 i g i 1 g n 1 i n C g i if i g F Cn 1 i n 1 g 1 P 2 5 3 4 P1762.84 P1573.52 P1404.93 P1254.40 P1120 P1000 Sample Problems: 1. For the cash flow shown below, find the values of P and F if i 15% per year: 5 6 g 12% , i 15% 2. Eleanor makes year-end deposits of P500 the first year, P550 the second year, P605 the third year, and so on increasing the net year’s deposit by 105 of the deposit in the preceding year until the end of the tenth year. Ronald makes equal year-end deposits of P700 each year for 10 years. If interest on both funds is 12% compounded annually, who will be able to save more at the end of 10 yrs. And by what amount? Bond Valuation Value of a Bond – simply the present value of the cash flows the asset (bond)is expected to produce. M INT INT INT INT Kd% Bond’s Value 1 N N Bond’s Value (VB) = 2 INT (1 k t 1 d ) t 3 INT 4 M (1 k d ) N if coupon interest payment is annual Annuity Where: kd = bond’s market interest rate N = no. of years (or periods) before the bond matures INT= interest paid each year (or period) = coupon rate x par value M = the par or maturity value of the bond 6 If coupon interest payment is: a. Semi-annual N INT M Bond’s Value (VB) = ; INT is interest received semi-annually kd t kd N t 1 (1 ) (1 ) 2 2 b. Quarterly N INT M Bond’s Value (VB) = ; INT is interest received quarterly kd t kd N t 1 (1 ) (1 ) 4 4 c. Monthly N INT M Bond’s Value (VB) = ; INT is interest received monthly kd t kd N t 1 (1 ) (1 ) 12 12 Example: Allied Foods issued $1,000 par value 15 years life bonds with 10% coupon rate to be paid at the end of each year. Compute for the value of this bond is market interest rate at the time of issue is: a. 10% b. 5% c. 15% Notes: 1. Whenever the going rate of interest, kd is equal to the coupon rate, a fixed-rate bond will sell at its par value. Normally, the coupon rate is equal to the going rate when a bond is issued, causing it to sell at par initially. 2. Interest rates do change over time, but the coupon rate remains fixed after the bond has been issued. Whenever the going rate of interest rises above the coupon rate, a fixed rate bond’s price will fall below its par value. Such a bond is called a discount bond. 3. Whenever the going rate of interest falls below the coupon rate, a fixed rate bond’s price will rise above its par value. Such a bond is called a premium bond. 4. Increase in kd will cause the prices of outstanding bonds to fall, whereas a decrease in rates will cause bond’s prices to rise. 5. The market value of a bond will always approach its par value as its maturity date approaches, provided the firm will not go bankcrupt. Bond Yields 1. YTM – Yield to Maturity (rate of interest one would earn if a bond will be held to maturity) N INT M Bond’s Value (VB) = ; if kd is unknown, it becomes the YTM. t (1 k d ) N t 1 (1 k d ) (Formula assumes annual coupon payment.) 2. YTC-Yield to Call (rate of interest one would earn if a bond will be called) N INT Call Pr ice Bond’s Value (VB) = ; if kd is unknown, it becomes the YTC. t (1 k d ) N t 1 (1 k d ) (Formula assumes annual coupon payment.) 7 3. Current Yield = annual interest/bond’s current price - does not represent the return that investors should expect to receive from holding the bond. Example: Suppose Allied’s bonds had a provision that permitted the company if it is desired, to call the bonds 10 years after the issue date at a price of $1,100. I f you bought the bonds one year after issuance at a price of $1,494.932, what is the YTC of the bond? Zero Coupon Bond Example: Vandenburg Corporation, a shopping center developer is in need of $50M. The company does not anticipate major cash flows from the project for about 5 years. Therefore, it decided to issue a 5-year zero coupon bond with maturity value of $1,000. Bond-yield at issue time is 6%. a. What should be the issue price of the bond? b. What should be the total face value of the bonds the company must offer to raise $50M? Problems on Bond Valuation 1. The Pennington Corporation issued a new series of bonds on January 1, 1974. The bonds were sold at par ($1,000), have a 12 percent coupon, and mature in 30 years, on December 31, 2003. Coupon payments are made semiannually (on June 30 and December31). a. What was the YTM of Pennington’s bonds on January 1,1974 b. What was the price of the bond on January 1, 1979, 5 years later, assuming that the level of interest rates had fallen to 10 percent? c. On July 1, 1997, Pennington’s bonds sold for $916.42. What was the YTM at that date? d. Now, assume that you purchased and outstanding Pennington bond on March 1, 1997, when the going rate of interest was 15.5 percent. How large a check must you have written to complete the transaction? 2. Callaghan Motors’ bonds have 10 years remaining to maturity. Interest is paid annually, the bonds have a $1,000 par value, and the coupon interest rate is 8 percent. The bonds have a yield to maturity of 9 percent. What is the current market price of these bonds? 3. The Heymann Company’s bonds have 4 years remaining to maturity. Interest is paid annually; the bonds have a $1,000 par value; and the coupon interest rate is 9 percent. a. What is the yield to maturity at a current market price of (1) $829 or (2) $1,104? b. Would you pay $829 for one of these bonds if you thought that the appropriate rate of interest was 12 percent- that is, if kd = 12% Explain your answer. 8 4. Six years ago, The Singleton Company sold a 20-year bond issue with a 14 percent annual coupon rate and a 9 percent call premium. Today, Singleton called the bonds. The bonds originally were sold at their face value of $1,000. Compute the realized rate or return for investors who purchased the bonds when they were issued and who surrender them today in exchange for the call price. 5. A 10-year, 12 percent semiannual coupon band, with a par value of $1,000, may be called in 4 years at a call price of $1,060. The sells for $1,100 (Assume that the bond has been issued.) a. What is the bond’s yield to maturity? b. What is the bond’s current yield? c. What is the bond’s yield to call? 6. You just purchased a bond which matures in 5 years. The bond has a face value of $1,000, and has an 8 percent annual coupon. The bond has a current yield of 8.21 percent. What is the bond’s yield to maturity? 7. A bond which matures in 7 years sells for $1,020 . The bond has a face value of $ 1,000 and a yield to maturity of 10.5883 percent. The bond pays coupons semiannually. What is the bond’s current yield? 8. Suppose Ford Motor Company sold an issue of bonds with a 10-year maturity, a $1,000 par value, a 10 percent coupon rate, and semiannual interest payments. a. Two years after the bonds were issued, the going rate of interest on bonds such as these fell to 6 percent. At what price would the bonds sell? b. Suppose that, 2 years after the initial offering, the going interest rate had risen to12 percent. At what price would the bonds sell? c. Suppose that the conditions in Part a existed- that is, interest rates fell to6 percent 2 years after the issue date. Suppose further that the interest rate remained at six percent for the next 8 years. What would happen to the price of the Ford Motor Company bond over time? 9 DERIVATION OF LINEAR GRADIENT FORMULAS 1 G 2G 3G (n-2)G (n-1)G 2 3 4 n-1 n P F P G1 i 2G1 i ... n 2G1 i 2 Multiply1 3 n 1 n 1G1 i 1 1 by 1 i : 1 n 2 n 1 2 P1 i G ... 1 2 1 i n 2 1 i n 1 1 i 1 i Subtract n from 2 n 1 1 1 1 Pi G ... n 1 n 1 1 i 1 1 i 2 1 i 1 i 1 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 3 Geometric Sequence to n-1 10 2 Sum of Geometric Sequence - a 1 1 ,r 1 i 1 i rn 1 sum a r 1 1 1 i n a ar ar 2 ar 3 ... ar n 1 n 1 1 n 1 1 1 i Pi G 1 i n 1 i n 1 1 i 1 1 i G 1 i 1 1 n 1 i 1 1 i 1 i n n P n G 1 i 1 n P i i 1 i n G 1 1 i P i i n F P1 i n G 1 1 i i i n n G 1 i F n i i n 1 i 1 i n n 1 i n n i1 i n A P n 1 i 1 n n G 1 1 i n i1 i i i 1 i n 1 i n 1 n G 1 i 1 in i 1 i n 1 1 i n 1 1 n A G n i 1 i 1 11 Financing Decision - determine the optimal capital structures of the firm Capital Structures - a mix of long-term sources of funds of the co. Liabilities Equity (creditors) (owners) Objective: determine the mix that will maximize the market value of the firm Types of Financing 1. Debt Financing 2. Equity Financing Preferred Stock Financing Common Stock Financing Debt financing - the firm borrows from an external source(s) to raise funds. - Principal amt. loaned and interests to be paid are stipulated in a debt contract (including when and how much will be paid) - Company is obligated to pay principal and interests regardless of its earnings 12 - - Lenders (creditors) do not/cannot exercise direct control over the company but can place certain restrictions on the company w/c when violated gives them the right to exert some influences on the company’s direction Claim of lenders (creditors) are prioritized over that of equity holders in case of liquidation Interest paid to creditors are tax-deductible (as seen in income statement of the borrowing company) Bonds – a contract or agreement that a borrower has to pay interest and principal at specific dates. (actually, a certificate of indebtedness) 4 Main types of Bonds: 1. Treasury Bonds – referred to as government bonds, these are issued by the government. 2. Corporate Bonds – bonds issued by corporations and are exposed to default risk (inability to make promised principal and interest payments) 3. Municipal Bonds – or “munis”, these are issued by state and local governments and are exposed to default risk. (main advantage: interest earned by holders are exempted from taxes) 4. Foreign Bonds – bonds issued by foreign governments or corporations. Main risk: currency exchange movement. (happen if bonds are denominated in a currency other than of that of the investor’s home currency) Key Characteristics of bonds: - all bonds have some common characteristics, they usually differ only on some contractual features. Bond Terminology: 1. Par Value – face value of a stock or bond 2. Coupon Payment – specified amt. of dollars/pesos that are to be paid each period on a per par value basis 3. Coupon Interest Rate – stated “annual” rate of interest on a bond. coupon payment par value 4. Floating Rate Bond – bond whose interest rate fluctuates with shifted in the general level at interest rates (maybe tied to T-bonds’ rate) - coupon rate is set for initial period after which it can be adjusted from time to time - can include upper and lower limits (“cups” and “flours”) or how high or low the yield (interest rate) can go. - Can cause market value of bonds to stabilize in times of varying market rates. 5. Zero Coupon Bond – bond paying no periodic interest but is sold at a discount below par, thus providing corporation Co investors on the form of capital appreciation 6. Maturity date – a specified date on which the par value of a bond must be repaid. 13 Continued in PowerPoint slides INTEREST AND MONEY-TIME RELATIONSHIPS ( I ) Capital: - refers to wealth in the form of money or property that can be used to produce more wealth. Two Types of Capital: a. Equity Capital – those owned by individuals who have invested their money or property in a business project or venture in the hope of receiving a profit. b. Debt Capital / Borrowed Capital – obtained from lenders for investment. Lenders in turn receive interest payment from the borrowers. The General Concepts of Interest: “ What may be unfamiliar to us is the idea that, in the financial world, money itself is a commodity, and like other goods that are bought and sold, money costs money. “ - C.S. Park - Interest - the cost of money often expressed as a percentage that is periodically applied and added to an amount ( or varying amounts ) of money over a specified length of time. - the return obtainable from the productive investment and efficient use of money resources during a specific time period. - the compensation ( return ) for the administrative expenses of making the loan, for the risk that the loan will not be repaid, and for the earnings forgone had the money been placed in other investments. - it is the profit from lending money, or the earning power of money. 14 - the amount paid for the use of borrowed money, the cost of borrowing money. The Time Value of Money: - the economic value of a sum of money depends on when it is received, because money has earning power over time ( a dollar received today has a greater value than a dollar received at some future time ). - the changing worth of money through time can be because of its earning potential over time, or to its decrease in value due to inflation over time , or to both. Ways of Calculating Interest: a. Simple Interest - when total interest earned or charged is linearly proportional to the initial amount of the loan ( principal, or the amount of money borrowed ). - General Formula : I=(P)(N)(i) Where : P = principal amount lent or borrowed N = number of interest period ( e.g. years ) i = interest rate per interest period - interest period is that time period for which the interest is calculated; usually, it is annually, semi-annually, quarterly or monthly but it can be any desired time interval. Illustrative Problems: 1. Php 400 is loaned for 5 quarters at a simple interest rate of 3% per quarter. a. What is the total amount of interest to be paid? b. What is the total amount owed after 5 quarters ( that is if principal and interest amount are to be paid only at the end of 5 quarters ) ? 2. Find the total interest earned by a principal loan of Php 1000 given a simple interest rate of 12% per month if the loan is for 3 weeks, if the interest is 3.5% per quarter for 4 months, and if the interest rate is 12.55% per annum for 27 months. b. Compound Interest - it is based on the total amount owed at the end of the previous period which consists of the original principal loaned plus the accumulated interests which had not been paid when due. - when the interest charge for any interest period is based on the remaining principal amount plus any accumulated interest charges up to the beginning of that period ( compounding ). Illustrative Problem: 1. If Php 400 is loaned for 5 quarters at a compound interest of 3% per quarter compounded quarterly, find the total amount owed at the end of the last quarter. Notations and Cash Flow Diagrams: The following notations are commonly utililized in formulas for compound interest calculations and other engineering economy problems : i = effective interest rate per period 15 N = number of compounding periods P = present sum of money; the equivalent value of one or more cash flows at a reference point in time called the present F = future sum of money; the equivalent value of one or more cash flows at a reference point in time called the future A = end-of- period cash flows ( or any other equivalent end-of- period values ) in A uniform series continuing for a specified number of periods, starting at the end of the first period and continuing through the last period With the use of cash flow diagrams, the timing occurrence of flows become more apparent and therefore reducing careless errors. Some concepts in constructing a cash flow diagram ( c.f.d ): 1. Define first the time frame over which the cash flows occur. This establishes the horizontal scale divided into time periods. Time period progresses as one move from left to right of the horizontal scale. 2. Cash receipts ( incoming ) and disbursements ( outgoing ) are then located on the time scale according to data projected by the investment. Cash receipts are represented by upward arrows, and cash disbursements are represented by downward arrows. 3. Direction of arrows depend on whose point of view is the cash flow diagram drawn for. Illustrative Example : Mrs. Green has just purchased a new car for $12,000. She makes a down payment of 30% of the negotiated price and then makes payments for $303.68 per month thereafter for 36 months. Furthermore, she believes the car can be sold for $3,500 at the end of three years. Draw a cash flow diagram of this situation from Mrs. Green’s viewpoint. Nominal Interest Versus Effective Interest Rate Nominal Rate of Interest ( r ) : - for compounded interest, the rate of interest usually quoted is the nominal rate of interest which is the specific rate of interest and the number of interest period per year. This is because it has become customary to quote interest rates on an annual basis, followed by the compounding period if different from one year in length. Ex: a nominal rate of 8% compounded quarterly i = 8% / 4 = 2% Effective Rate of Interest : - the actual or exact rate of interest earned on the principal during one year . - this is usually expressed on annual basis unless specifically stated otherwise. Converting Nominal Interest to Effective Interest Rate: ieff = ( 1+ r/N )N – 1 where : ieff is the effective interest rate r is the nominal rate of interest N is the number of compounding period per year 16 Note: effective interest rate is only equal to nominal rate of interest when compounding is on annual basis. When N>1, i>r. Sample Problem: 1. Find the nominal rate which if converted quarterly could be used instead of 12% compounded monthly. What is the corresponding effective rate? Interest Formulas Relating Present and Future Equivalent Values of Single Cash Flows Future Worth: If any amount P is invested at a point in time and i% is the interest rateper period, the amount will grow to a future amount of P+Pi = P(1+i) by the end of one period; by the end of two periods, the amount will grow to P(1+i)(1+i)=P(1+i)2; by the end of three periods, the amount will grow to P(1+i)2(1+i)=P(1+i)3; and by the end of N periods, the amount will grow to: F = P(1+i)N Where : F = future worth of money N = number of interest period The quantity (1+i)N is commonly called the single payment compound amount factor. It is also symbolize by ( F/P, i%, N ). Present Worth: To find the present worth of a certain amount of money given it’s future value. P = F(1+i)-N The quantity ( 1+i)-N is called the single payment present worth factor. It is symbolize by ( P/F, i%, N ). Illustrative Problem: 1. A chemical engineer wished to accumulate a total of Php 10,000 in a savings account at the end of 10 years. If the bank pays only 4% compounded quarterly, what should be the initial deposit? 2. What amount can be withdrawn two years from now from a bank offering a nominal rate of 40% compounded quarterly if Php 1,000 is deposited now? 3. Solve problem 2 by using the effective rate of interest. 4. By the conditions of a will, the sum of Php 25,000 is left to a girl to be held in trust by her guardian until it amounts to Php 45,000. When will the girl receive the money if the fund is invested at 8% compounded quarterly? 5. If Php 1,000 becomes Php 5,743 after 15 years, when invested at an unknown rate of interest compounded semi-annually, determine the unknown nominal rate and the corresponding effective rate. 17 INTEREST AND MONEY-TIME RELATIONSHIPS (II) The Five Types of Cash Flows: 1. Single Cash Flow - the simplest case, involves equivalence of a single present amount and its future worth. 2. Equal ( Uniform ) Series - probably the most familiar category which includes transactions arranged as a series of equal cash flows at regular intervals. 3. Linear Gradient Series - cash flow when common pattern of variation occurs in terms of cash flow in a series increases ( or decrease ) by a fixed amount. 4. Geometric Gradient Series - another kind of gradient series that is formed when the cash flow is determined not by some fixed amount but by some fixed rate, expressed as percentage. 5. Irregular Series - a series of cash flow in that it does not exhibit a regular overall pattern. Annuities - is a series of equal payments occurring at equal periods of time. P 1 2 3 n 0 18 N A Formulas Relating Annuity , Present Worth and Future Worth Amounts: Finding P given A: Finding F given A: n (1 i ) 1 (1 i) n 1 PA FA [i] i(1 i) n Illustrative Problems: 1. What are the present worth and the accumulated amount of a 10 year annuity paying Php 10,000 at the end of each year, with interest at 15% compounded annually? 2. A plastic manufacturing company is intending to expand its production facilities starting 1988. The program requires the following estimated expenditures: Php 1,000,000 at the end of 1988 Php 1,200,000 at the end of 1990 Php 1,500,000 at the end of 1993 To accumulate the required funds, it established a sinking fund consisting of 15 uniform annual deposits, the first deposit having been made at the end of 1979. The interest rate of the fund is 12% per annum. Calculate the annual deposit. What will be the balance in the fund on January 1, 1990? 3. The officers and board of directors of the institute of Integrated Electrical Engineers desire to award a Php 3,600 scholarship annually to deserving electrical engineering students for as long as its scholarship fund shall last. The fund was started July 1, 1987 by a donor in the amount of Php 18,000. The IIEE invested this amount at that time at 8% per annum and plans on adding Php 600 each year to the fund from its dues starting July 1, 1988 for as long as awards are made. a. For how many years starting July 1, 1988 can scholarship be awarded? b. What will be the balance in the fund after the last award is made? 4. A chemical engineer wishes to set up a special fund by making uniform semi-annual end-ofperiod deposits for 20 years. The fund is to provide Php 100,000 at the end of each of the last five years of the 20 year period. If interest is 8% compounded semi-annually, what is the required semi-annual deposit to be made? Deferred Annuity: Ordinary Annuity - involves the first cash flow being made at the end of the first period. Deferred Annuity - if cash flow does not begin until some later date; one where the first payment is made several periods after the beginning of the annuity. P m periods 1 2 3 0 n periods 0 m 1 2 A A A ( P/A,i%,n)(P/F,i%,m) 19 3 4 A A A ( P/A, i%, n ) n-1 n A A P = A (P/A,i%,n)(P/F,i%,m) P = A { [ 1-(1+i)-n ] / i } (1+i)-m Sample Problems: 1. On the day his grandson was born, a man deposited to a trust company a sufficient amount of money so that the boy could receive five annual payments of Php 10,000 each for his college fees, starting with his 18th birthday. Interest at the rate of 12% per annum was to be paid on all amounts on deposit. There was also a provision that the grandson could elect to withdraw no annual payments and receive a single lump amount on his 25th birthday. The grandson chose this option. a. How much did the boy receive as single payment? b. How much did the grandfather deposit? 2. If Php 10,000 is deposited each year for 9 years, how much annuity can a person get annually from the bank every 8 years starting 1 year after the 9th deposit is made. Cost of money is 14%. Perpetuity: - an annuity in which payments continue indefinitely. P 1 2 3 n to 4 0 P = A { [ 1- (1+i)-n]/i} = A { [1-(1+i)-]/i} P = A/i Sample Problem: 1. What amount of money invested today at 15% interest can provide the following scholarships: Php 30,000 at the end of each yearfor 6 years; Php 40,000 for the next 6 years and Php 50,000 thereafter? Linear Gradient Series: - involves receipts and expenses that are projected to increase or decrease by a uniform amount each period, thus constituting an arithmetic sequence of cash flows. - ex: maintenance and repair expenses on specific equipment may increase by a relatively constant amount each period; suppose that the maintenance expense on a certain machine is Php 2,00020 1,500 1,000 2,500 3,000 1000 at the end of the first year and increasing at a constant rate of four years : Php 500 each for the next This cash flow may be resolved into two components: 2G 3G (n-1)G G A A A A A 0 + 1 2 3 4 A = Php 1,000 n = 5 0 5 G PisA known as the uniform gradient amount: Finding P when given G: P = PA + P G PA = A {( [ 1+i]n - 1 ) / i(1+i)n } PG = G/i { [ (1+i)n - 1]/i - (n) } { 1/(1+i)n } 1 PG 2 3 4 5 G = Php 500 n = 5 Finding F when given G: F = G/i { [(1+i)n - 1]/i } - nG/i Finding A when given G: A = G { 1/i - n/[(1+i)n - 1] } Sample Problem: 1. A loan was to be amortized by a group of four end of year payments forming an ascending arithmetic progression. The initial payment was to Php 5,000 and the difference between successive payments was to be Php 400. But the loan was renegotiated to provide for the payment of equal rather than uniformly varying sums. If the interest rate of the loan was 15% what was the annual payment? 2. Find the equivalent annual payment of the following obligations at 20% interest rate. End of year Payment 1 Php 8,000 2 7,000 3 6,000 4 5,000 Additional Problem: 21 1. A man bought a lot worth Php 1,000,000 if paid in cash. On the installment basis, he paid a down payment of Php 200,000; Php 300,00 at the end of one year, Php 400,000 at the end of three years and a final payment at the end of five years. What was the final payment if interest was 20%. Selections in Present Economy : Problem Set Method: 1. In a mining site in Mindoro, the ore contains, on the average, one ounce of gold per ton. One method of processing “A” costs Php 1,500 per ton and recovers 90% of the gold. Another method “B” costs only Php 1,200 per ton and recovers 80% of the gold. If the gold can be sold at Php 4,000 per ounce, which method is better and by how much? 2. The making of rivet holes in structural steel members can be done by two methods. The first method consists of laying out the position of the holes in the members and using a drill press costing Php 30,000. The machinist is paid Php 20 per hour and he can drill 30 holes per hour. The second method makes use of a multiple-punch machine costing Php 27,500. The punch operator is paid Php 18 an hour and he can punch out 4 holes every minute. This method also requires an expense of Php 0.70 per hole to set the machine. a. If all other costs are assumed equal, what is the total cost for each machine for 6,000 holes, assuming that the total cost of each machine is charged to these holes? b. For how many holes will the costs be equal? 3. The monthly demand for ice cans being manufactured by Mr. Cool is 3,200 pieces. With a manually operated guillotine, the unit cutting cost is Php 25. An electrically operated hydraulic guillotine was offered to Mr. Cool at a price of Php 275,000 and which will cut by 30% the unit cutting cost. Disregarding the cost of money, how many months will Mr. Cool be able to recover the cost of the machine if he decides to buy now? 22 Material: 1. GMA will be visiting an automobile plant. It was decided by the plant management that they must paint the plant. Boysen paint costs Php 70 per gallon and covers 350 sq. ft. per gallon. The manufacturer claims that it will last 5 years and can be applied at a rate of 100 sq. ft. per hour. General paint costs Php 100 per gallon and covers 500 sq. ft. per gallon. It will last for 4 years and can be applied at a rate of 125 sq. ft. per hour. If the painter is Paid Php 15 per hour, which paint should be used? 2. The volume of raw material required for a certain product is 2.02 cu. cm. The finished product volume is 1.05 cu. cm. The time for machining each piece of the product is 45 seconds for steel and 30 seconds for brass. The cost of steel is Php 26.50 per kg. and the value of steel scrap is negligible. The cost of brass is Php 51.25 per kg. and the value of brass scrap is Php 16 per kg. The wage of the operator is Php 25 per hour and the overhead cost of the machine is Php 15 per hour. The weight of steel and brass are 0.0081 and 0.0088 kg. per cu cm., respectively. Which material will you recommend? 3. High carbon steel or alloy steel can be used for the set of tools on a lathe. The tools must be sharpened periodically. Data for each are as follows: High Carbon Steel Alloy Steel Output per hour 60 pcs. 70 pcs. Time between tool grinds 4 hours 6 hours Time required to change tools 1 hour 1 hour The wage of the lathe operator is Php 24 per hour, based on the actual working hours. The tool changer costs Php 30 per hour. Overhead costs for the lathe are Php 14 per hour, including toolchange time. A set of unsharpened high carbon steel costs Php 500 and can be ground ten times; a set of unsharpened alloy steel costs Php 650 and can be ground five times. Which type of steel should be used? Design: 1. A company manufactures 1,000,000 units of a product yearly. A new design of the product will reduce materials cost by 12%, but will increase processing cost by 2%. If materials cost is Php 1.20 per unit and processing will cost Php 0.40 per unit, how much can the company afford to pay for the preparation of making the new design and making changes in equipment? Site Selection: 1. A certain masonry dam requires 200,000 cu. M. Of gravel for its construction. The contractor found two possible sources for the gravel with the following data: Source A Source B Average distance, gravel pit 3.0 km. 1.2 km. to dam site Gravel cost / cu. m. At pit NA PHP 10.00 23 Purchase price of pit Road construction necessary Overburdened to be removed @ Php 4.20 / cu. m. Hauling cost per cu. m. per km. Php 800,000 Php 450,000 NA NA NA 90,000 cu. m. Php 4.00 Php 4.00 Which of the two sites will give lesser cost? Equipment Maintenance: 1. A machine used for cutting materials in a factory has the following outputs per hour at various speeds and requires periodic tool regrinding at the intervals cited. Speed Output per Hour Tool Regrinding A 200 pieces Every 8 hours B 280 pieces Every 5 hours A set of tools costs Php 1,260 and can be ground twenty times. Each regrinding costs Php 54 and the time needed to regrind and change tool is 1 hour. The machine operator is paid Php 19.20 per hour, including the time the tool is changed. The tool grinder who also sets the tools to the machine is paid Php 21 per hour. The hourly rate chargeable against the machine (based on machine operating time) is Php 38, regardless of machine speed. Which speed is the most economical? Economy and Proficiency of Labor / Workers: 1. An electrical contractor has a job which should be completed in 100 days. At present, he has 80 men on the job and it is estimated that they will finish the work in 130 days. If of the 80 men, 50 are paid Php 62 a day, 25 at Php 68 a day, and 5 at Php 75 a day and if for each day beyond the original 100 days, the contractor has to pay Php 250 liquidated damages: a. How many more men should the contractor add so he can complete the work on time? b. Of the additional men, 5 are paid Php 68 a day and the rest at Php 62 a day. Would the contractor save money by employing more men and not paying the fine? 2. A certain product is being made by hand in a small factory. The workers were paid Php 0.20 per acceptable piece produced. It was found that if a worker produced 80 pieces per day, 5% would be rejected. If 90 pieces were produced per day, 10% would be rejected, and at the rate of 100 pieces, 20% would be rejected. The cost of materials was Php 0.50 per piece, and the 24 materials in any rejected piece had to be thrown away. There was a fixed overhead expense of Php 10.00 per day per worker, regardless of considerable change in output. a. At which of the three outputs did the worker make the highest wage? b. At what output did the factory achieve the lowest unit cost? 3. An executive receives an annual salary of Php 240,000 and his secretary a salary of Php 60,000 a year. A certain task can be performed by the executive working alone in 4 hours. If he delegates the task to his secretary it will require him 30 minutes to explain the work and another 45 minutes to check the finished work. Due to the unfamiliarity of the secretary to do task, it takes her an additional time of 6 hours after being instructed. Considering salary cost only, determine the cost of performing the task by each method if secretary works 2,400 hours a year and the executive 3,000 hours a year. IEMECON Selections in the Present Economy Problem Set 1. A building contractor can source door frames from either a nearby shop or a far-off forest area. The cost details are summarized in the table below. The total requirement of wood for the construction work is 75 tons. Find the best alternative for buying the wooden frames. Also find the economic advantage of the best alternative. Items Nearby Shop Far-off Forest Area Distance to site Negligible 900 km Transportation cost per ton per km Negligible $ 100 Material cost per ton $ 2,000 $ 1,250 2. A company is considering the possibility of buying part No.010 from an outside supplier instead of manufacturing the part as it is now. The annual requirement for part No. 010 is 50,000 units. The cost to manufacture this part is: Direct Material Php 4 Direct Labor Php 2 Manufacturing Overhead Variable Php 2 25 Fixed Total Unit Cost Php 4 Php 15 An offer was received from a supplier to supply the part at Php 13 per unit. Should the company make or buy the part? 3. In the design of a jet engine part, the designer has a choice of specifying either an aluminum alloy casting or steel casting. Either material will provide equal service, but the aluminum casting will weigh 1.2 kg compared with 1.35 kg for the steel casting. The aluminum can be cast for $ 80.00 per kg and the steel one for $ 35.00 per kg. The cost of machining per unit is $ 150.00 for aluminum and $ 170.00 for steel. Every kilogram of excess weight is associated with a penalty of $ 1,300 due to increased fuel consumption. Which material should be specified and what is the economic advantage of the selection per unit? 4. The Pampanga Corporation manufactures a single product called “Mangyanan” Under normal operating conditions; the company manufactures and sells 90,000 units of this product in a 6 month period. The contribution to fixed costs and profits of each unit of product is P 8. The fixed overhead costs for six months amount to P 320,000. Other companies buying this product are currently encountering labor difficulties and this resulted to a reduction in sales to only 4,000 units per month. A sales volume of only 4,000 units monthly will definitely result to a loss. Therefore, the management of the firm plans to close the plant for six months, anticipating that market will be back to normal after six months. Studies indicated that the 6-month fixed overhead costs of P 320,000 can be cut down to P225,000 if the plant is closed. However, additional costs to protect the facilities and start up costs have been estimated at P 31,000. Should the company close the plant for six months or continue its operation? 5. A cement kiln with production capacity of 130 tons per day (24 hours) of clinker has at its burning zone about 45 tons of magnesite chrome bricks being replaced periodically, depending on some operational factors and the life of the bricks. If locally produced bricks cost P 25,000 per ton and have a life of 4 months, while certain imported bricks costing P 30,000 per ton and have a life of 6 months, determine the more economical bricks and by how much. (ME Board Problem- Oct.1987) 6. An equipment installation job in the completion stage can be completed in 40 days of 8 hour day work, with 40 men working. With the contract expiring in 30 days, the mechanical engineer contractor decided to add 10 men on the job, overtime not being permitted. 26 If the liquidated damage is P 2,000 per day of delay, and the men are paid P 80 per day, will the engineer be able to complete the jobe on time? Would he save money with the addition of workers?(ME Board Problem- April 1988) 7. The chief engineer of refinery operations is not satisfied with the preliminary design for storage tanks to be used as part of a plant expansion programme. The engineer who submitted the design was called in and asked to reconsidfer the overall dimensions in the light of an article in the Chemical Engineer, entitled “How to size future process vessels?” The original design submitted called for 4 tanks 5.2 m in diameter and 7m in height. From a graph of the article, the engineer found that the present ratio of height to diameter of 1.35 is 111% of the minimum cost and that the minimum cost for a tank was when the ratio of height to diameter was 4:1. The cost for the tank design as originally submitted was estimated to be $ 9,000,000. What are the optimum task dimensions if the volume remains the same as for the original design? What total savings may be expected through the redesign? 8. Suarez Corporation manufactures a certain product XYZ. This product can be sold at the end of a particular stage of production or can be further processed and sold as a completely processed product. A partially processed product sells for P 45 per unit and the manufacturing costs amount to P 30 per unit. If the product is further processed, variable cost of P 15 will be spent and the product can be sold at P 55 per unit. The estimate annual sales for this product is 30,000 units. 9. Two alternatives are under consideration for a tapered fastening pin. Either design will serve the purpose and will involve the same material and manufacturing cost except for the lathe and grinder operations. Design A will require 16 hours of lathe time and 4.5 hours of grinder time per 1,000 units. Design B will require 7 hours of lathe time and 12 hours of grinder time per 1,000 units. The operating cost of the lathe including labour is $200 per hour. The operating cost of the grinder including labour is 150 per hour. Which design should be adopted if 1,000 units are required per year and what is the economic advantage of the best alternative? 10. A company manufactures dining tables which mainly consist of a wooden frame and a table top. The different materials used to manufactire the tables and their costs are given in Table 2.1 Table 2.1 Description of Item Quantity Wood for frame and legs 0.1 m3 Table top with sunmica finish 1 Leg bushes 4 Nails 100 g Total labour 15 hr 27 Cost ($) 12,000/m3 3,000 10/bush 300/kg 50/hr In view of the growing awareness towards deforestation and environmental conservation, the company feels that the use of wood should be minimal. The wooden top therefore could be replaced with a granite top. This would require additional wood for the frame and legs to take the extra weight of the granite top. The materials and labour requirements along with cost details to manufacture a table with granite top are given in Table 2.2 Table 2.2 Description of Item Quantity Wood for frame and legs 0.15 m3 Granite Table top 1.62 m2 Leg bushes 4 Nails 50 g Total labour 8 hr Cost ($) 12,000/m3 800/m2 25/bush 300/kg 50/hr If the cost of the dining table with a granite top works out to be lesser than that of the table with wooden top, the company is willing to manufacture dining tales with granite tops. Compute the cost of manufacture of the table under each of the alternatives described above and suggest the best alernative. Also, find the economic advantage of the best alternative. 11. In the design of buidlings to be constructed in Alpha State, the designer is considering the type of window frame to satisfy. Either steel or aluminum windrow frames will satisfy the design criteria. Because of the remote location of the building site and lack of building materials in Alpha state, the window frames will be purchased in Beta State and transported for a distance of 2,500 km to the site. The price of window frames of the type required is $ 1,000 each for steel frames and $ 1,500 each for aluminum frames. The weight of steel window frames is 75 kg each and that of aluminim window frame is 28 kg each. The shipping rate is $ 1 per kg per 100 km. Which design should be specified and what is the economic advantage of the selection? 12. The process planning engineer of a firm listed the sequences of operations as shown in the table 2.3 to produce a component. Table 2.3 Sequence Process Sequence 1 Turning-Milling-Shaping-Drilling 2 Turning-Milling-Drilling 3 All operations are performed with CNC machines The details of processing times of the component for various operations and their machine hour rates are summarized in Table 2.4. Table 2.4 Machine Hour Rates and Processing Times (minutes) Machine Operation Process Sequence Hour Rate 1 2 Turning 200 5 5 Milling 400 8 14 28 3 - Shaping Drilling CNC 350 300 1,000 10 3 - 3 - 8 Find the most economical sequence of operations to manufacture the component. 13. A paint manufacturing company uses a sand mill for fine grinding of paint with an output of 100 liters per hour using glass beads as grinding media. Media load in the mill is 25 kg, costing P 200 per kg, and is fully replenished in 2 months time, at 8 hours per day operation, 25 days per month. A ceramics grinding media is offered to this paint company costing P400 per kg, and needs 30 kg in the sand mill, but guarantees an output of 120 liters per hour and full replenishment of media in 3 months. If profits on paint production is P 15 liter, would you recommend the change in media? Show by calculations comparative cost to justify your answer. (ME Board Problem- Oct.1987). DEPRECIATION Depreciation---is the decrease in value of physical properties with the passage of time and use. More specifically, depreciation is an accounting concept that establishes an annual deduction against a before-tax income such that the effect of time and use on an asset’s value can be reflected in a firm’s financial statements. Annual depreciation deductions are intended to “match” yearly fraction of value used by an asset in the production of income over the asset’s actual economic life. The actual amount of depreciation can never be established until the asset is retired from service. Types of Depreciation 1. Normal Depreciation (a) Physical depreciation---due to the lessening of a property’s physical ability to produce results. (b) Functional depreciation or obsolescence---due to the lessening in the demand for the function that the property was designed to render. 29 2. Depreciation due to change in price levels, when price levels rise during inflationary periods. Even if original purchase price was recovered through proper depreciation procedure. Identical replacement can not be attained, capital depreciated. 3. Depletion---used to indicate the value of the resource base when natural resources are being consumed in producing products or services. Symbols Used P-original installed cost of the depreciable property N-depreciable life of the asset F-salvage value of the asset after its useful life of N years dn-depreciation charge for year n and is dependent on the method used Dn-accumulated depreciation charges from the acquisition time to the end of year n BVn-book value of the asset at the end of year n Depreciation Methods 1. Straight Line Method (SL)---is the simplest and most widely used depreciation method. It assumes that a constant amount is depreciated each year over the depreciable life of the asset. To solve using the SLM, the following formula applies: PF N D n nd n dn BVn P D n 2. Declining Balance Method (DB)---sometimes called the Matheson Formula, assumes that the annual cost of depreciation is a fixed percentage of the BV at the beginning of the year. The ratio of the depreciation in any one year to the BV at the beginning of the year is constant throughout the life of the asset and is designated by R (0 to 1). In this method, R=2/N when 200% declining balance is used and R=1.5/N when 150% declining balance is used. F P BVn P(1 k ) n k 1 N d n kBVn 1 kP(1 k ) n 1 D n P BVn 30 3. Sum-of-the-Years Digit Method (SYD)---to compute the depreciation deduction by the SYD method, the digits corresponding to the number of each permissible year of life are first listed in reversed order. The sum of these digits is then determined. The depreciation factor for any year is the number from the reverse-ordered listing for that year divided by the sum of the digits. 2( N n 1) d n ( P f ) N( N 1) ( 2N n 1)n D n ( P F ) N( N 1) BVn P D n 4. Sinking Fund Formula---it is assumed that a sinking fund is established in which funds will accumulate for replacement purposes and will bear interest. i d n ( P F ) N (1 i ) 1 (1 i ) n 1 Dn d n i BVn I D n 5. Service Output or Units-of-Production Method---the decrease in value for (P F) d N BVn I D n this type of depreciation method is due to the number of hours that the asset can be used before its end life. In this case, the life of the asset is in terms of time that it can produce before replacement. 6. Double Declining Balance --- same as Declining Balance only: k 2 N Illustrative Problems: 31 (1) A company purchased a machine for $15,000. It paid sales tax and shipping costs of $1,000 and nonrecurring installation costs amounting to $1,200. At the end of five years, the company had no further use for the machine, it was sold for $1,000. Required: (a) What is the depreciation each year using SL, DB, DDB, and SYD? (b)What is the book value at the end of the second year using the different methods mentioned above. (2) An asset for drilling was purchased and placed in service by a petroleum production company. Its cost basis is $60,000 and it has an estimated salvage value of $12,000 at the end of 14 years. The interest for the sinking fund is 10%. Required: (a) What is the depreciation each year using the sinking fund formula? (b) What is the book value at the end of 10 years? (3) A piece of equipment used in a business has a cost basis of $50,000 and is expected to have a $10,000 salvage value when replaced after 20,000 hours of use. Find its depreciation rate per hour of use, and find its book value after 10,000 hours of operation. (4) In 1992, Silicon Chemical Company purchased a special purpose machine that had a fair price of $120,000. This new machine is expected to produce 100,000 units throughout its estimated useful life of 10 years. Up to the end of the third year it had produced 45,000 units and during the fourth year it produced 15,000 units. If the estimated market value is $12,000 at the end of 10 years, compute for the depreciation amount in the third year and the book value at the end of the fourth year by each of these methods: (a) straight-line method (b) sum-of-the-years digit method (c) 200% declining balance method (d) sinking fund method (i=10%) (e) service output or units-of-production method [5] Show in tabular form [depreciation schedule] the computation for the annual depreciation expenses for a machine worth P1,000,000 with a salvage value of 10% the original cost and a depreciable life of 5 years, using. [a] straight line method [b] sum of year’s digits [c] declining balance [d] double declining balance [6] A contractor imported a bulldozer for his job, paying P250,000 to the manufacturer. Freight and insurance charges amounted to P18,000; custom’s 32 broker’s fees, P8,500; taxes, permits, and other initial expenses, P25,000. If the contractor estimates life of the bulldozer to be 10 years, with a salvage value of P20,000, determine the book value at the end of six years, using the: [a] straight line formula [b] sinking fund formula at 8% [c] declining balance method [d] SYD method [7] A machine that cost P68,000 was depreciated on a straight line basis for five years under the assumption that it would have an eight year life and a P4,000 trade-in value. At the point, it was recognized that the machine had five years of remaining useful lie, after which it would have an estimated P3,000 scrap value. Using the straight line method. [a] Determine the machine’s book value at the end of its fifth year. [b] Determine the amount of depreciation to be charged against the machine during each of the remaining years of its life. APPLICATIONS OF MONEY-TIME RELATIONSHIPS All engineering economy studies of capital projects should consider the return that a given project will or should produce. By using several methods of making engineering economy studies to evaluate the economic profitability of a proposed problem solution. The Present Worth (PW), Annual Worth (AW) and the Future Worth (FW) methods convert cash flows resulting from a proposed solution into their equivalent worth at some point (or points) in time by using an interest rate known as the Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR). The Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Explicit Reinvestment Rate of Return (ERRR) and the External Rate of Return (ERR) methods produce annual rates of profit, or returns, resulting from an investment, and are then compared against the MARR. The last method, the payback period, is a measure of speed with which an investment is recovered by the inflows it produces. DETERMINING THE MINIMUM ATTRACTIVE RATE OF RETURN The MARR is usually a policy issue resolved by the top management of an organization in view of numerous considerations. Among these are: 33 1. 2. 3. 4. The amount of money available for investment, and the source and cost of this funds (i.e., equity funds or borrowed funds). The number of good projects available for investment and their purpose. The amount of perceived risk associated with investment opportunities available to the firm and the estimated cost of administering projects over short planning horizons versus long planning horizons. The type of organization involved (i.e., government, public utility, or competitive industry) Illustrative Problem. 1. A firm has the following capital structure: Source of Fund Common Stock Preferred Stock Debt Retained Earnings Determine the MARR. Capital 20M 6M 45M 19M Cost of Capital 15% 8% 9% 15% BASIC METHODS IN MAKING ENGINEERING ECONOMY STUDIES Present Worth (PW) – is based on the concept of equivalent worth of all cash flows relative to some base or beginning point in time called the present. The PW is a measure of how much money an individual or firm could afford to pay for the investment in excess of its cost. Or, stated differently, a positive PW for an investment project is a dollar amount of profit over the minimum amount required by investors. Therefore, a positive PW would accept the proposed solution. To find PW, it is necessary to discount future amounts to the present by using the formula: 1. N PW Fk 1 i k k 0 Where: i = effective interest rate, or MARR, per compounding period k = index for each compounding period (0 k N) Fk = future cash flow at the end of period k N = number of compounding periods in the planning horizon (i.e., study period) I = investment S = salvage value Illustrative Problem. 1. A special purpose machine is to be acquired by paying a P15,000 initial cash payment plus a debt assumption of P135,000. The machine will generate additional net annual cash inflow of P40,000 for the firm throughout the 10 years of useful life of the asset. At the end of its life, a salvage value of 10% of its initial cost will be realized. Assuming that the MARR is 13.2% per annum, is the project justified using the PW method? 2. Annual Worth (AW) – is an equal annual series of dollar amounts, for a stated study period, that is equivalent to the cash inflows and outflows at an interest rate that is generally the MARR. As long as the AW is greater than or equal to zero, the project is economically attractive; otherwise, it is not. An AW of zero means that an annual return exactly equal to the MARR has been earned. N N k i 1 i AW Fk 1 i N k 0 1 i 1 Where: i = effective interest rate, or MARR, per compounding period k = index for each compounding period (0 k N) 34 Fk = future cash flow at the end of period k N = number of compounding periods in the planning horizon (i.e., study period) I = investment S = salvage value Illustrative Problem. 1. A manufacturing process can be carried out by using a machine which can be acquired for P20,000. The annual receipts generated by the investment is P150,000 and the annual disbursement is P138,000. The asset will have a life of 10 years in which it will have a salvage value of P2,000 at the end of its life. MARR = 20% Is the project acceptable using the AW method? 3. Future Worth (FW) – is based on the equivalent worth of all cash inflows and outflows at the end of the planning horizon at an interest rate that is generally the MARR. A positive FW would result to acceptance of the problem solution N FW Fk 1 i N k k 0 Where: i = effective interest rate, or MARR, per compounding period k = index for each compounding period (0 k N) Fk = future cash flow at the end of period k N = number of compounding periods in the planning horizon (i.e., study period) I = investment S = salvage value Illustrative Problem. 1. Given: I = 150,000; N = 5 years; S = 15,000; MARR = 25% Year Cash flow 1 -25,000 2 -10,000 3 50,000 4 70,000 5 90,000 Is the project justified using the FW method? Internal Rate of Return (IRR) – is the most widely used rate of return method for performing engineering economic analyses. This method solves for the interest rate that equates the equivalent worth of an alternative’s cash inflows (receipts or savings) to the equivalent worth of cash outflows (expenditures, including investment costs). The IRR must consequently be compared with the MARR, an IRR that is greater than the MARR would result to acceptance of the problem solution. To compute for the IRR, equate the PW to zero, then solve for the i by either “trial and error” or “interpolation”. 4. N PW Fk 1 i* k 0 k 0 Where: i* = internal rate of return k = index for each compounding period (0 k N) Fk = future cash flow at the end of period k N = number of compounding periods in the planning horizon (i.e., study period) Illustrative Problem. 1. Given: MARR = 15% 35 EOY Cash flow 0 -100,000 1 30,000 2 40,000 3 70,000 4 50,000 5 20,000 Determine the IRR? 5. Explicit Reinvestment Rate of Return (ERRR) – solves for the ratio of earning power. It takes into account the interest rate that equates the annual receipts and disbursements to the amount of investment. An ERRR that is greater than the MARR would result to acceptance of the problem solution. R D I S i 1 i ERRR N I 1 Net Income Investment Where: i = effective interest rate, or MARR, per compounding period R = annual receipts D = annual disbursements I = investment S = salvage value Illustrative Problem. 1. On land worth P800,000, an investor constructs a building worth P3,000,000, containing a theater, a bank, stores and offices. The owner estimates that the annual receipts from rental will be P720,000 and the annual disbursements to cover taxes, insurance and maintenance of the building will be P80,000. He also estimates that the land can be sold for P1,200,000, the building for P2,000,000 at the end of 20 years. If his money is now earning 15% before taxes, will this property earn enough for the investment to be justified? External Rate of Return (ERR) – it directly takes into account the interest rate external to a project at which net cash flows generated (or required) by the project over its life can be reinvested (or borrowed). If this external reinvestment rate, which is usually the firm’s MARR, happens to equal the project’s IRR, then the ERR method produces results identical to those of the IRR method. To compute, convert cash inflows and outflows to their future equivalent using the reinvestment rate which is usually the MARR, equate this to the future equivalent of the investment, and then solve for the ERR. 6. N I 1 ERR Rk Dk 1 i N N k S k 0 Where: i = effective interest rate, or MARR, per compounding period R = annual receipts D = annual disbursements I = investment Illustrative Problem. 1. Given: I = 150,000; N = 5 years; S = 15,000; MARR = 25% Year Cash flow Is the project justified? 1 -25,000 2 -10,000 36 3 50,000 4 70,000 5 90,000 7. Payback (Payout) Period – used as a measure of a project’s riskiness, since liquidity deals with how fast an investment can be recovered. Quite simply, the payback method calculates the number of years required for cash inflows to just equal cash outflows. Simple Payback Period – the length of time required to recover the first cost of an investment from the net cash flow produced by that investment for an interest rate of zero. This method fails to consider the time value of money. It fails to consider the consequences of the investment following the payback period, including the magnitude and timing of the cash flows and expected life of the investment. It is more desirable to have a shorter payback period, this means that the investment provides revenues early in its life, enough to cover initial outlay. This quick return in capital also shortens the time span over which the investment is susceptible to losses. R k 1 k Dk I 0 Where: R = annual receipts D = annual disbursements I = investment = payback period Discounted Payback Period –considers the time value of money. This method determines the length of time required until the investments equivalent receipt exceeds the equivalent capital outlay. R k 1 Dk 1 i I 0 k k Where: i = effective interest rate, or MARR, per compounding period R = annual receipts D = annual disbursements I = investment Illustrative Problem. 1. A piece of new equipment has been proposed by engineers to increase the productivity of a certain manual welding operation. The initial investment is P25,000 and the equipment will have a salvage value of P5,000. Increased productivity attributable to the equipment will amount to P8,000 per year after extra operating costs have been subtracted from the value of the additional production. MARR = 20%. In view of the minimum acceptable payback period of 5 years, is this alternative attractive? Exercise. 1. A distillation column can be purchased and installed for P 2,000,000. It will incur P35,000 in operations and maintenance expenses and yet can start generating revenues of P125,000 each month as soon as it is installed. The distillation column could be sold at the end of its useful life of 4 years at an estimated price of P150,000. The cost of capital is 15% per annum. The reinvestment rate is 12 %. Evaluate the project using: a. Present worth method e. ERR method b. Annual worth method f. ERRR method c. Future worth method g. Simple payback d. IRR method h. Discounted payback For methods (a) to (f) recommend whether the column is acceptable or not. For methods (g) and (h), Should the column be accepted if the acceptable payback period is 2.5 years? 37 APPLICATIONS OF MONEY-TIME RELATIONSHIPS FOR MULTI-BUSINESS PROJECT ANALYSIS Definition of Terms : Mutually Exclusive Projects - engineering and business projects that can be accomplished by more than one feasible alternative wherein the selection of one of these alternatives excludes the choice and implementation of the others. “ Do-Nothing Alternative “ - means no alternative is selected because none is economically justifiable therefore leading to the point where no project is implemented or to continued reliance in a current system. Analysis Period / Study Period / Planning Horizon - the time span over which the economic effects of an investment or project will be evaluated. Types of Projects / Alternatives: a. Service Projects / Cost Alternative - those whose revenue do not depend on the choice of the project or those with all negative cashflows except for a possible positive cashflow element from disposal of asstes at the end of the project’s useful life. This situation occurs when the organization must take some action and the decision involves the most economical way of doing it. b. Revenue Projects / Investment Alternative - those whose revenue depend on the choice of the alternative or those with initial capital investment(s) that produce positive cashflows from increased revenue, savings through reduced costs, or both. Main Principle in Multi-Business Project Analysis : - Business or engineering projects must be compared over equal time span or over the same study period; therefore projects must have equal lives before analysis is initiated. Two Cases for Multi-Project Analysis : 1. Useful lives are the same for all alternatives and equal to study period. 2. Useful lives are different among the alternatives and at least one does not match the study period. CASE 1 : USEFUL LIVES ARE EQUAL TO STUDY PERIOD - USE OF EQUIVALENT WORTH METHODS: 1. For investment alternatives or revenue projects, choose the project that gives the highest equivalent worth value. 2. For cost alternative or service projects, choose the project that gives the least or lowest negative equivalent worth value ( meaning the project that requires the lowest cost ). - USE OF RATE OF RETURN METHODS: 38 In this category, the incremental investment analysis technique is utilized. 4 basic steps for incremental analysis: 1. Arrange the feasible alternatives based on increasing capital investment. 2. Determine the base alternative. For cost alternatives, the base alternative is the one that requires the least capital investment. For investment alternative, the base alternative is the project which requires the lowest possible investment and which justifies itself ( i.e. IRR MARR ). 3. Determine the incremental cashflows from the lower to the next higher-investment project and compare the incremental rate of return value with the MARR. A higher investment alternative will be chosen if and only if , the additional funds required will have a rate of return that satisfies the minimum amount. Incremental Cash Flow = Cash Flow of B - Cash Flow of A where : A is the base alternative B is the next higher investment alternative 4. Repeat step 3 until all alternatives have been exhausted in the analysis. - If no alternative among the given qualifies to become the base alternative then the “ do-nothing “ alternative is taken. Sample Problem: 1. Suppose your given the cash flow data of 3 project alternatives in the table below with 3 years of useful lives each and a study period of 3 years under consideration. Alpha Beta Gamma Investment Cost $ 70,000 $ 50,000 $ 120,000 1st Year- Revenue $ 40,000 $ 30,000 $ 60,000 2nd Year- Revenue $ 50,000 $ 40,000 $ 60,000 3rd Year- Revenue $ 60,000 $ 50,000 $ 60,000 Salvage Value $ 22,750 $ 5,000 $ 46,000 What project would you choose if MARR is 9.762% compounded semi-annually, using a. Present Worth Method ? b. Internal Rate of Return Method ? CASE 2 : USEFUL LIVES NOT EQUAL TO STUDY PERIOD AND DIFFERENT AMONG ALTERNATIVES In this case, the equivalent worth and rate of return methods are equally applicable except that adjustments to project or alternative cash flows have to be made before they can be used. “ Unequal lives among alternatives somewhat complicate their analysis and comparison. To make engineering economy studies in such cases, we adopt the rule of comparing mutually exclusive alternatives over the same time period. The repeatability assumption and the coterminated assumption are the two types of assumptions used for these comparisons. “ 39 Repeatability Assumption: 1. Study period over which the alternatives are being compared is either indefinitely long or equal to a common multiple of the lives of the alternatives. 2. The economic consequences that are estimated to happen in an alternative’s initial life span will also happen in all succeeding life spans. Coterminated Assumption: 1. Uses a finite and identical study period for all alternatives. 2. If an alternative has a useful life shorter than the study period, the estimated annual cost of contracting for the activities involved might be used during the remaining years. Similarly, if useful life of an alternative is longer than the study period, a re-estimated market value is normally used as terminal cash flow at the end of a project’s coterminated life. For Infinite Study Period: - either the repeatability or coterminated assumption can be used depending on which is easier to apply. For Finite Study Period : - if useful life is longer than study period , apply coterminated assumption. - if useful life is shorter than study period, apply repeatability assumption. ( Exception might apply to investment alternatives with different lives which require only a one-time investment because the task or need within the firm is a one time task or need.) Sample Problems: 1. Three machines are being considered by LOG Inc. to be used in their production of a special product which the company plans to offer to the consumer market for only five years. The capital investment requirement, annual benefits and disbursements required by each machine as well as their useful lives and salvage values are given in the table below: Machines A B C Investment Cost $ 6,000 $ 7,600 $ 12,400 Useful Life ( years ) 5 7 12 Revenues $ 19,000 $ 18,000 $ 18,800 Disbursements $ 7,800 $ 7,282 $ 6,298 Dep’n Method Straight Line SYD Declining Balance Salvage Value $ 500 $ 600 $ 1,500 If MARR = 20% per year, which machine would you select based on: a. Future Worth Method ? b. ERR Method ? 2. The Smith Novelty Company, a mail-order firm, wants to install an automatic mailing system to handle product announcement and invoices for the next 15 years. The firm has a choice between 3 different types of systems. The monetary information about the systems is given in the table below: 40 System A B C Initial Investment $ 50,000 $ 100,000 $ 80,000 Yearly $ 15,000 $ 3,000 $ 9,000 Maintainance Expense Required Useful Life ( years ) 10 15 12 Salvage Value $ 10,000 $ 16,000 $ 20,000 Dep’n Method SYD Straight Line Declining Balance If yearly minimum rate of return established by the company’s upper management is 20%, which system is economically the best to implement ? Use the IRR method. 3. WWW Corp. is a private water company. In line with it’s vision of expanding and widening it’s service area coverage; it plans to establish a water piping system connection to WalangTubig Subdivision so as to be able to provide the latter with clean water in a fast and efficient way for a long-term period. The company is now considering two piping system and additional information are given as follows: Year Pipe System A Pipe System B 0 - $ 12,500 - $ 15,000 1 - $ 5,000 - $ 4,000 2 - $ 5,000 - $ 4,000 3 - $ 5,000 - $ 4,000 4 None - $ 4,000 Salvage Value $ 2,000 ( on 3rd year ) $ 1,500 ( on 4th year ) Which piping system would you recommend to the company if MARR is 15% using the repeatability assumption with the Present Worth Method? 41 Interest and Money Time Relationship Problem Set 1. A loan of P 2,000 is made for a period of 13 months, from January 1 to January 31 the following year, at a simple interest rate of 20%. What future amount is due at the end of the loan period? 2. Find the present worth of a future payment of P100,000 to be made in 5 years with an interest of 10% compounded annually (ECE Board problem- Sept 21, 1985). 3. A man wishes his son to receive a P200,000 ten years from now. What amount should he invest now if it will earn interest of 10 % compounded annually during the first 5 years and 12 % compounded quarterly during the next 5 years? 4. J purchased a small lot in a subdivision, paying P20,000 down and promising to pay P1,500 every 3 months for the next 10 years. The seller figured interest is 12 % compounded quarterly. What was the cash price of the lot? 5. A new company developed a program in which the employees will be allowed to purchase shares of stocks of the company at the end of its fifth (5th) year of operation, when the company is thought to have gained stability already, at par value of P100.00 per share. Believing in the good potential of the company, an employee decided to save in a bank the amount of P8,000 at the end of every year which will earn for him 9% interest, compounded yearly. How much shared of stocks will he be able to purchase at the end of the fifth (5th) year of his yearly deposits? (ME Board Problem-April 26, 1990). 6. A young woman, 22 years old, has just graduated from college. She accepts a good job and desires to establish her own retirement fund. At the end of each year thereafter she plans to deposit P2,000 in a fund at 15% annual interest. How old will she be when the fund has an accumulated value of P1,000,000? 7. Mr. Reyes borrows P60,000 at 12% compounded annually, agreeing to repay the loan in 15 equal annual payments. How much of the original principal is still unpaid after he made the 8th payment? 8. On January 1 of a certain year, ABC Corporation borrowed P1,450,000 for 12 years at 16% interest. The terms of the loan obliged the firm to establish a sinking fund in which the following deposits was to be made: P300,000 at the end of the 2nd to the 6th year; P450,000 at the end of the 7th to the 11th year, and one for the balance of the loan at the end of the 12th year. The interest rate earned by the sinking fund was 12%. What was the amount of the final deposit? 9. An asphalt road requires no upkeep until the end of 2 years when P60,000 will be needed for repairs. After this P90,000 will be needed for repairs at the end of each year for the next 5 years, then P120,000 at the end of each year for the next 5 years. If money is worth 14% compounded annually, what was the equivalent uniform annual cost for the 12 year period? 42 Problem Set: Evaluating Single Projects 1. 2. 3. 4. It is estimated that insulation of steam pipes in a factory will reduce the fuel bill by as much as 20%. The cost of insulation is Php9,000 and the annual cost of insurance and taxes is 5% of the initial cost. With the insulation, the annual fuel is Php18,000. If the insulation is worthless after 6 years of use and a minimum return of 12% is desired, would it be worthwhile to invest in the insulation? Use ERR method. A small company XYZ Corp. is in the business of cleaning bottles for large soft-drink makers. It presently owns a bottle cleaning machine that operates for 5,000 hours per year at the rate of 50 bottles being cleaned per hour. XYZ charges Php0.14 per cleaned bottle. The machine may be overhauled to increase its output by an additional 20 cleaned bottles per hour, with no increase in its current annual operating cost of Php10,000. The overhaul will cost Php50,000 (Php10,000 financed through the issuance and sale of bond while the remaining Php40,000 from the company’s retained earnings). This will extend the machine’s life to 5 years and will result to zero salvage value at the end of that time. Explicit cost for bonds is 15% while for retained earnings is 20%. Is the renovation acceptable using IRR method? An existing warehouse is worth Php500,000 and the average value of the goods stored in it is Php800,000. Total insurance cost on the warehouse and inventory is Php10,000 annually. If a proposed sprinkling system is installed in the warehouse, the insurance cost will be reduced to three fourths of the original cost. The cost of the sprinkler system is Php20,000 and the additional annual cost for maintenance and inspection would be Php500. The sprinkler system has a useful life of 20 years, at the end of which a disposal cost of Php2,500 for dismantling the system will be incurred. The operation of the warehouse is now providing the firm a 12% return on the original investment. Is the sprinkler system justified using the ERR method? A company has an opportunity to increase its production level of Mr. Kleen detergent bar. The price of the detergent will remain at Php5 per unit for the next 10 years. The additional annual operating expenses include a fixed amount of Php10,000 for electricity plus Php2 per unit of detergent produced in selling expenses. The project will last for 10 years. To execute this project, the company must purchase a new machine for Php200,000 that will have no value at the end of its life. How many additional units of Mr. Kleen must be sold each year so that the project will have an IRR of 15%? 43 Problem Set Evaluating Single Projects 1. A single project is available for investment. It requires an initial investment of $25,000. The life is expected to be 7 years and the salvage value of the investment is $ 2,500. The net revenues are expected to be $ 5,500/year and MARR is 6%. a. Determine the PW for this investment. Should the investment be made? b. Find the annual worth for this investment. Based on AW, what is your recommendation regarding the investment in this project? 2. Determine the PW, FW, and AW of the following engineering project when the MARR is 15% per year. Is the project acceptable? Proposal A Investment Cost $ 10,000 Expected Life 5 years Market (salvage) value - $ 1000 Annual Receipts $ 8,000 Annual Expenses $ 4,000 3. The G&K Corporation is planning to expand one of its warehouse. Total first costs is: the land costs $250,000; the building costs $ 650,000, the equipment costs $ 200.000 and a $ 150,000 start-up cost. Expected net revenues are $6000,000/year for 10 years at which time the land and building can be sold for $475,000. and the equipment for $50,000. Annual cost are $350,000. What is the IRR for this investment? If the company requires a MARR of 15% determine if they should expand the warehouse or not? 4. Solve for the IRR and then decide whether the investment is justified or not. Cash Inflows: P 25,000 P 100,000 P 90,000 P 95,000 P 75,000 0 1 2 3 4 P 60,000 5 . Cash Outflows 44 0 1 2 P 50,000 P 60,000 3 4 P 75,000 5 P 47,500 P77,500 P 80,000 P 20,000 5. An existing warehouse is worth Php500,000 and the average value of the goods stored in it is Php800,000. Total insurance cost on the warehouse and inventory is Php10,000 annually. If a proposed sprinkling system is installed in the warehouse, the insurance cost will be reduced to three fourths of the original cost. The cost of the sprinkler system is Php20,000 and the additional annual cost for maintenance and inspection would be Php500. The sprinkler system has a useful life of 20 years, at the end of which a disposal cost of Php2,500 for dismantling the system will be incurred. The operation of the warehouse is now providing the firm a 12% return on the original investment. Is the sprinkler system justified using the ERR method? 6. A piece of new equipment has been proposed by engineers to increase the productivity of a certain manual welding operation. The investment cost is $ 25,000, and the equipment will have a market (salvage) value of $5,000 at the end of its expected life of five years. Increased productivity attributable to the equipment will amount to $8,000 per year after extra operating costs have been subtracted from the value of production. Suppose the MARR is 20% per year. What is the project’s ERR and is the project acceptable? 45 PROBLEM SET: Money-Time Relationships Evaluating Single Project 1. A machine can be overhauled today for P5,000, and will save P500 in operating expenses every year for 5 years. If the MARR is 10% per year, is the overhaul desirable? 2. A printing firm is to acquire P10,000 worth of printing equipment with an expected life of 15 years. Auxiliary equipment that can be coupled with the printing equipment can reduce operating costs by P10,000 annually. If the firm has a 25% cost of capital, what must the maximum cost be for the auxiliary equipment? 3. A project is estimated to require an initial investment of P80,000 in physical assets, which would have an economic life of 10 years and be worth P10,000 in salvage value at the end of that time. The estimated gross annual savings will be P17,000 and the out of pocket expenses will be P1,400 per year. The opportunity cost of capital before income taxes, is 10%. Determine the advisability of the investment using: a) AW, b) PW, c) FW, and d) IRR. 4. It is estimated that insulation of steam pipes in a factory will reduce the fuel bill by as much as 20%. The cost of insulation is P9,000 and the annual cost of taxes and insurance is 5% of the initial cost. With the insulation, the annual fuel bill is P18,000. If the insulation is worthless after 6 years of use, and a minimum return of 12% is desired, would it be worthwhile to invest in the insulation? Use ERRR method. 5. A small company XYZ Corporation is in the business of cleaning bottles for large soft drink makers. It presently owns a bottle-cleaning machine that operates for 5,000 hours per year at the rate of 50 bottles being cleaned per hour. XYZ charges P0.10 per cleaned bottle. The machine may be renovated to increase its output by an additional 20 cleaned bottles per hour, with no increase in its current operating cost which amounts to P10,000 annually. The renovation will cost P50,000 (as financed by bonds, P10,000; and retained earnings, P440,000) will extend the machine’s life to 5 years, and will result to zero salvage value at the end of that time. Is the renovation acceptable? Explicit cost for bonds is 15% while for retained earnings is 20%. 6. An existing warehouse is worth P500,000, and the average value of the goods stored is P800,000. Total insurance cost on the warehouse and inventory is P10,000 annually. If a proposed sprinkling system is installed in the warehouse, the insurance cost will be reduced to three fourths of the original cost. The cost of the sprinkler system is P20,000 and the additional annual cost for maintenance and inspection would be P500. The required write-off period for the entire investment in the sprinkler system is 20 years. The operation of the warehouse is now providing the firm a 12% return on the original investment. 7. A company has an opportunity to increase its production level of Mr. Kleen detergent bar. The price of the detergent will remain at P5 per unit for the next 10 years. The additional annual operating expenses include a fixed amount of P10,000 for electricity plus P2 per unit of detergent produced in selling expenses. The project will last for ten years. To execute this project, the company must purchase a new machine for P200,000 that will have no value at the end of its life. How many units of Mr. Kleen must be sold each year so that the project will have an IRR of 10%? 8. A computer facility is requested to serve the data processing needs of a manufacturing firm. In addition, after office hours, computer time may be sold to outside users at a rate of P50 per hour. The computer will cost the company P200,000 and the expected useful life is 5 years 46 at the end of which, the facility can be sold for P10,000. Annual revenues from this endeavor are estimated at a fixed P200,000. Maintenance for the asset will amount to P150,000 yearly for the tapes, diskettes and air-conditioning. Assume MARR = 25% per annum. How many after-office hours should be used to make the proposal to be barely acceptable? Evaluating Different Projects (Same Lives) 1. A company is planning to install a new automated plastic molding press. Four different presses are available. The essential differences in initial investment and operating costs for these mutually exclusive cost alternatives are as follows: Alternative Investment Useful Life (yr.) Annual Operation & Maintenance Power Labor Maintenance Property taxes & insurance Total annual Costs A P6,000 5 B P7,600 5 C P12,400 5 D P13,000 5 680 6,600 400 120 P7,800 680 6,000 450 152 P7,282 1,200 4,200 650 248 P6,298 1,260 3,700 500 260 P5,720 Each press will produce the same number of units. However, because of different degrees of mechanization, some require different amounts and grades of labor and have different operation and maintenance costs. None is expected to have a salvage value, and the selected study period is 5 years, the same as the common useful life. Any capital invested is expected to earn at least 10% before taxes. Which press should be chosen? Use PW, AW & FW methods. 2. In an automotive parts plant, a study team is analyzing an improvement project to increase the productivity of a flexible manufacturing center. The estimated cash flows for the three feasible alternatives being compared are shown in the table. The analysis period is 6 years, and the MARR for the capital investments at the plant is 20%. Using ERR method, which alternative should be selected? EOY A B C 0 -640,000 -680,000 -755,000 1 262,000 -40,000 205,000 2 290,000 392,000 406,000 3 302,000 380,000 400,000 4 310,000 380,000 390,000 5 310,000 380,000 390,000 6 260,000 380,000 324,000 3. The estimated initial investment cost, and the annual operating and maintenance costs (based on 1,500 hours of operation per year), for four alternative designs of a diesel-powered air compressor are shown, as well as the estimated salvage value for each design at the end of the common 5-year useful life. The perspective of these cost estimates is that of the typical user (construction company, plant facilities department, government highway department, 47 and so on). The study period is 5 years, and the MARR is 20%. Based on this information, determine the preferred alternative design using the IRR method. A B C D Investment P100,000 P140600 P148,200 P122,000 Annual cost 29,000 16,900 14,800 22,100 Useful Life (yr.) 5 5 5 5 Salvage Value 10,000 14,000 25,600 14,000 Evaluating Different Projects (Different Lives) 1. Bulaklak Oil Company must install anti-pollution equipment in a new refinery in Bataan to meet clean air legislation. It is considering five types of equipment, and the following data are available: Kampupot Kalasutsi Katuray Investment P1,500,000 P1,000,000 P1,400,000 Revenue/yr. 594,210 480,000 590,433 Disbursement/yr. Power 24,000 16,000 18,000 Labor 63,000 53,328 56,000 Maintenance 20,000 15,000 16,000 Estimated Life, yr. 8 5 6 Salvage Value (% I) 10 12 15 Method of Depreciation SL SYD DDB If MARR is 20%, use IRR method to determine which proposal to accept. 2. MARR = 20%. Use PW method. A Initial Cost P190,000 Life (yr.) 4 Salvage Value Net Cash Flows 1 75,000 2 75,000 3 80,000 4 80,000 5 6 7 Depreciation Method DDB B C P130,000 P100,000 6 7 10% of initial cost 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 70,000 70,000 SL 48 40,000 50,000 60,000 50,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 SYD D P50,000 4 40,000 40,000 40,000 50,000 40,000 DB After Tax Cash Flow Analysis, Capital Gains (Loss) and Replacement Analysis After Tax Cash Flow Analysis: Important Equations: MARR After Tax = MARR Before Tax ( 1- Income Tax Rate ) NIBT = BTCF – Depreciation Tax Paid = -( Income Tax Rate ) * NIBT ATCF = BTCF + Tax Paid Where : NIBT = Net Income Before Tax BTCF = Before Tax Cash Flow ATCF = After Tax Cash Flow Problems: 1. Project Orpheus has the following cash flows: Investment Cost - Php 100,000 st 1 Year - Revenue Php 30,000 2nd Year - Revenue Php 50,000 rd 3 Year - Revenue Php 70,000 4th Year - Revenue Php 90,000 Salvage Value Php 10,000 If the depreciation method used for this particular project is SYD and the company has an MARR before tax of 25% per annum. What should be the action taken if the company is in the 40% income tax bracket? Use the PW method. 2. A certain productivity project can be undertaken by two alternatives. Information about these alternatives are given as follows: Alt. Euriphides Alt. Antigone Php 150,000 Php 75,000 Initial Cost 3 5 Life in Years Php 15,000 Php 7,500 Salvage Value Net Cash Flow ( Php ) Php 60,000 Php 30,000 Year 1 Php 70,000 Php 30,000 Year 2 Php 80,000 Php 30,000 Year 3 Php 30,000 Year 4 Php 30,000 Year 5 Declining Balance Straight Line Depreciation Method If study period is 3 years, income tax rate is 50% and MARRBT is 25%, which of the two alternatives is best? Use the IRR method. 49 Capital Gains / Loss: Capital Gain ( Loss ) = Market Value – Book Value Capital Gain when Market Value > Book Value Capital Loss when Market Value < Book Value Problem: 1. Using Project Orpheus given in the previous problem with the same cash flows and a capital gains tax of 30% : a. If the machines used in the project was sold for Php 30,000 at the end of 4 years, construct the ATCF table. What is the new PW value ? b. If the machines were in turn sold for Php 5,000 at the end of 4 years, construct the ATCF table. What is the new PW value? Replacement Analysis: Problems: 1. Machine A has been used for 10 years and currently has a book value of Php 2,000. A decision must be made concerning the most economic action to take : Keep A, replace A w/ B , or replace A w/ C. Machine A, if continued in service, can be used for 6 more years and scrapped at zero salvage value. Annual operating costs are at Php 10,000 ( depreciation cost included, straight line depreciation ). If Machine A is replaced with Machine B, A can be sold for Php 2,500. B will cost Php 12,000, will have a 6 year life and a salvage value of Php 3,000 at the end of that time. Annual operating costs are estimated at Php 8,000 ( depreciation cost included, straight line depreciation ). On the other hand, if A is replaced with Machine C, C will cost Php 17,500, will have a 6 year life and a salvage value of Php 1,750. Annual operating costs are estimated at Php 6,000 ( depreciation cost included, straight line depreciation ). If the MARR before tax is 15%, income tax = 40% and capital gains tax = 25%, what course of action should be taken? 2. A firm is considering replacing a generator which was purchased 4 years ago for Php 50,000. Currently, the generator has a book value of Php 30,000 using Straight Line depreciation. If the generator is retained, it will be used for 4 more years, at which time it will have a salvage value of Php 10,000. Operating cost for the old generator is Php 7,000 per year. 50 A new generator can be purchased for Php 60,000. It is estimated to have a life of 4 years with a salvage value of Php 30,000 at the end of that time. Operating costs are Php 5,000 per year. If the old generator is replaced , it can be sold for Php 20,000. Using an after tax analysis and a MARR = 10% after tax, should the generator be replaced or not? Assume that the firm is in the 55% income tax bracket. 51 INFLATION Inflation - exists when the general price levels of goods and services in an economy are increasing. This is caused by several complex forces at work within and without a country’s economy. As prices, rise, (the value of money) its purchasing power, consequently decreases. Inflation Rate - is a percentage of increase of price levels based on the previous year’s price levels. Definition of Terms f = inflation rate Actual Pesos, AP : the actual number of pesos at the point in time that they occur; this is the actual paper and coin denominations of money. Real Pesos, RP : the number of pesos that equals the purchasing power of the money; usually it is the amount of goods and services that can be bought by Actual Pesos. Conversion Formula: RP = AP(1 + f )-k Where: f = inflation rate during the intervening period between the base year and the year in which AP occurs k = number of intervening periods between the base year and the year in which AP occurs The real interest rate, i, is the interest rate that will make the Real Pesos inflows equivalent to Real Pesos outflows in a cash flow diagram. If one undertakes an analysis involving cash flow diagrams of Real (uninflated) Pesos, then Real (uninflated) interest rate i should be used. If the cashflow diagrams of Actual (inflated) Pesos are given, then the interest rate should be the combined interest rate, ic: ic = ir + f + ir(f) One can either use AP or RP provided that the appropriate interest rate is used. Usually, the MARR given in the project analysis is a combined interest rate. Illustrative Problem 1. EOY Cash Flow, AP 0 -15000 1 3000 2 4000 3 5000 4 6000 Assume inflation rate is 5% per year and the real monetary interest rate is 12% per year. Is the project desirable? Use PW. 52 Additional Problems on Inflation: 1. Annual expenses for two alternatives have been estimated on different bases as follows: End of Year 1 2 3 4 Alternative A Annual Expenses Estimated in Actual Pesos -120,000 -132,000 -148,000 -160,000 Alternative B Annual Expenses Estimated in Real Pesos with base period = year 0 -100,000 -110,000 -120,000 -130,000 If the average general price inflation rate is expected to be 6% per year and the real rate of interest is 9% per year, answer the following questions: a. What is the combined interest rate? b. What is the PW of Alternative A? c. What is the PW of Alternative B? d. Convert the year 1 and 2 cash flows of Alternative A to their equivalent real peso values. Year 1: e. Convert the year 3 and 4 cash flows of Alternative B to their equivalent actual peso values. Year 3: Year 2: Year 4: 2. Suppose that your salary is $35,000 in year one, will increase at 6% per year through year 4, and is expressed in actual dollars as follows: End of Year Salary (A$) 1 $35,000 2 37,100 3 39,326 4 41,685 53 If the general price inflation is expected to average 8% per year for the first two years and 7% per year for the last two years, what is the Final Answer Question What is the real dollar equivalent of these actual dollar salary amounts? Assume that the base period is year one. End of Year 1 2 3 4 If your personal MARR is 10% per year, calculate the real interest rate. 54 Salary (R$) Risk In Capital Investment and Budgeting Objectives: 1. To consider uncertainty of cash flow in each period of a capital investment’s life. 2. To measure the overall riskiness of an investment proposal when the probability distributions of cash flow outcomes for different periods are not necessarily the same (both expected value of cash flow and the dispersion of probability distributions can change over time). 1st Case: Assumption of Independence -Outcome in period t does not depend on what happened in period t-1; no causative relationship between cash flows from period to period. - Mean of probability distribution of possible NPV values for the proposal: n NPV t 0 At (1 R ) t f where: At - expected cash flow in period t Rf – risk-free rate (the risk premium will come in when we consider the probability distributions of NPV to judge the risk of the proposal) n – no. of periods over which cash flows are expected - Standard deviation of probability distribution of NPV: (1 n t 0 2 t R) 2t f where : t = standard deviation of the probability distribution of possible net cash flows in period t. t ( A At ) p xt 2 xt where: Pxt is the probability of xth cash flow in period t. (Note: Main difficulty in capital budgeting is obtaining cash flow estimates from people for risky investments. Be careful of biases in obtaining cash-flow information.) 2nd Case: Dependence of Cash Flows Over Time - Cash flow in one future period depends in part or in whole on the cash flows in the previous periods. - Consequence: correlated cash flows gives higher standard deviation of the probability distributions of possible NPVs. Higher degree of correlation, higher dispersion of probability distribution. 55 - The mean NPV stays the same regardless of the degree of correlation of cash flows over time. A. Perfect Correlation - If cash flows deviate in exactly the same relative manner, that is, if actual cash flows for all periods show the same relative deviation from the means of their respective probability distributions of expected cash flows. - Standard deviation of probability distribution of NPV with perfectly correlated stream of cash flows over time: n t o t (1 R f ) t B. Moderate Correlation - Standard deviation of probability distribution of NPV will be somewhere between that of assumption of mutual independence and perfect correlation. - Can be beautifully captured with a series of conditional probability distributions which enables us to take account of the correlation of cash flows over time. - Standard deviation of probability distribution of NPV values: _____ l ( NPV NPV ) 2 Px x x 1 where: NPVx is the net present value for series x of net cash flows covering all periods _______ NPV is the mean NPV of the proposal (computed in the same manner as that of mutual independence) l = no. of possible series of cash flows Other Ways of Assessing Project Risk (aside from ): 1. Sensitivity Analysis - involves changing one of the key variables at a time and observing how sensitive cash flows (or NPVs) are to changes - can highlight factors that have the greatest effect on cash flows 2. Scenario Analysis - involves setting optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely values for the key variables affecting the proposed investment, the NPV is then computed under each of these three conditions to have a picture of the project’s riskiness 3. Monte Carlo Simulation - risk analysis technique in which probable future events are simulated on a computer, generating estimated rates of return and risk indexes 56 - values of variables affecting cash flows are generated randomly and for which NPV is computed, this process is done repeatedly thus generating the probability distribution for the NPV and allows for the location of its mean and a view to its dispersion. Total Risk of Multiple Investments (Portfolio) - Diversification can be done with capital investments just as it can be practiced with securities investments. However, diversification with respect to capital assets is more “lumpy” or “difficult” than with that of securities. - Mean NPV of Multiple Capital Investments: Simply the sum of mean NPVs of the investment projects making up the portfolio. - Standard deviation, risk, of Portfolio of Risky Capital Investments: Depends to a large extent on the degree of correlation between the investments and the standard deviation of possible NPVs for each project. m m r j 1 k 1 jk j k where: m – total no. of capital investments in the portfolio rjk – expected correlation between NPV for investment j and k j – standard deviation of investment j k – standard deviation of investment k (Projects in the same general line of business tend to be highly correlated with each other, while projects in essentially unrelated lines of business tend to have low degrees of correlation.) Feasible Combinations and Dominance Feasible Combinations: Portfolios having Mean NPVs greater than equal zero. (Corresponds to opportunity set of security portfolios.) Certain portfolios will dominate others because: 1. They have higher NPV and the same standard deviation. 2. They have a lower standard deviation and the same NPV. 3. They have both a higher NPV and a lower standard deviation. The portfolios that dominate others represent the efficient frontier of the opportunity set curve for capital investment portfolios. 57 Sample Problems: 1. The Dewitt Corporation has determined the following discrete probability distributions for net cash flows generated by a contemplated project: Period 1 Prob. Cash Flow 0.10 $1,000 0.20 2,000 0.30 3,000 0.40 4,000 Period 2 Prob. Cash Flow 0.20 $1,000 0.30 2,000 0.40 3,000 0.10 4,000 Period 3 Prob. Cash Flow 0.30 $1,000 0.40 2,000 0.20 3,000 0.10 4,000 a. Assume that probability distributions of cash flows for future periods are independent. Also, assume that the risk-free cost of capital is 7%. If the proposal will require an initial outlay of $5,000, determine the mean net present value. b. Determine the standard deviation about the mean. c. If the total distribution is approximately normal and assumed continuous, what is the probability of the net present value being zero or less? d. What is the probability that the net present value will be greater than zero? e. What is the probability that the profitability index will be 1.00 or less? f. What is the probability that the profitability index will be greater than 2.00? g. If perfect correlation exists between cash flows from one period to another, what are the mean NPV and standard deviation about this mean? 2. Ponape Lumber Company is evaluating a new saw with a life of 2 years. The saw costs $3,000, and future after-tax cash flows depend on demand for the company’s products. The probability tree of possible future cash flows associated with the hew saw is: Year 1 Year 2 Initial Probability Cash Flow Conditional Cash Flow Probability 0.30 $1,000 0.40 $1,500 0.40 $1,500 0.30 $2,000 0.40 $2,000 0.60 $2,500 0.40 $2,500 0.20 $3,000 a. What are the joint probabilities of occurrence of the various outcomes in cash flow? b. If the risk-free WACC is 10%, what are the mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution of possible net present values? c. Assuming a normal distribution, what is the probability the actual net present value will be less than zero? 3. Xonics Graphics is evaluating a new technology for its reproduction equipment. The technology will have a 3-year life and cost $1,000. Its impact on cash flows is subject to risk. Management estimates that there is a 50-50 chance that the technology will 58 either save the company $1,000 in the first year or save it nothing at all. If nothing at all, savings in the least 2 years would be zero. Even worse, in the second year an additional outlay of $300 may be required to convert back to the original process, for the new technology may result in less efficiency. Management attaches a 40% probability to this occurrence, given the fact that the new technology “bombs out” in the first year. If the technology proves itself, second year cash flows maybe either $1,800, $1,400 or $1,000, with probabilities 0.20, 0.60, and 0.20, respectively. In the third year, cash inflows are expected to be $200 greater or less than the cash flow in period 2, with an equal chance of occurrence. (Again, these cash flows depend on the cash flow in period 1 being $1,000.) All the cash flows are after taxes. a. Set up a probability tree to depict the foregoing cash-flow possibilities. b. Calculate a net present value for each three-year possibility, using a risk-free capital cost of 5%. c. What is the risk of the project. 4. The Windrop Company will invest in two of three possible proposals, the cash flows of which are normally distributed. The expected net present value (discounted at the WACC) and the standard deviation for each proposal are given as follows: Proposal Expected NPV Standard Deviation 1 $10,000 4,000 2 $8,000 3,000 3 $6,000 4,000 Assuming the following correlation coefficients for each possible combination, which two proposals dominate? Proposals Correlation Coefficient 1 1.00 2 1.00 3 1.00 59 1&2 0.60 1&3 0.40 2&3 0.70 I. ABC Corporation is considering a special purpose piece of machinery costing $9,000 with a life of 2 years, after which there is no expected value. The possible incremental cash flows are: Year 1 Year 2 Probability Cash flow (in $) Probability Cash flow (in $) 0.3 6,000 0.3 2,000 0.5 3,000 0.2 4,000 0.4 7,000 0.3 4,000 0.4 5,000 0.3 6,000 0.3 8,000 0.2 6,000 0.5 7,000 0.3 8,000 The company’s required rate of return for this investment is 8%: 1. What are the joint probabilities of occurrence of the various branches? 2. Calculate the mean net present value and standard deviation of the probability distribution of possible net present values? 3. Assuming a normal distribution, what is the probability the actual net present value will be less than zero? And greater than zero? II. Expected cash flow of the company’s project in 3 years, with an initial investment of $10,000 in illustrated below: Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Probability Cash flow (in $) Probability Cash flow (in $) Probability Cash flow (in $) 0.10 3,000 0.10 2,000 0.10 2,000 0.25 4,000 0.25 3,000 0.25 3,000 0.30 5,000 0.30 4,000 0.30 4,000 0.25 6,000 0.25 5,000 0.25 5,000 0.10 7,000 0.10 6,000 0.10 6,000 The company’s required rate of return for this investment is 8%: 1. What is the mean net present value of the project? 2. What is the standard deviation about the mean? 3. If the total distribution is approximately normal and assumed continuous, what is the probability of the net present value being above $1,000? 4. What is the probability that the net present value will be greater than zero? 5. Assuming that there is perfect correlation among the cash flows, what is the standard deviation of the project and net present value? III. Suppose a firm has a single investment project, 1 and it is considering an additional project, 2. The projects have the following net present values, standard deviations, and correlation coefficients: Project Expected NPV ($) Standard Deviation ($) Correlation Coefficient 1 12,000 14,000 1.00 2 8,000 6,000 1.00 1 and 2 0.40 What is the NPV of the portfolio? What is the standard deviation of the portfolio? 60 Dealing with Uncertainty Decisions under Risk – decisions in which the analyst models the decision problem in terms of assumed possible future outcomes, or scenarios, whose probabilities of occurrence can be estimated. Decisions under Uncertainty – a decision problem characterized by several unknown futures for which probabilities of occurrence cannot be estimated. Sources of Uncertainty 1. 2. 3. 4. Possible inaccuracy of the cash flow estimates used in the study Type of business involved in relation to the future health of the economy Type of physical plant and equipment involved Length of the study period used in the analysis Common Non-probabilistic Methods for Dealing with Uncertainty 1. Breakeven analysis – commonly used when the selection among alternatives is heavily dependent on a single uncertain factor such as capacity utilization. A breakeven point for the factor is determined such that two alternatives are equally desirable from an economic standpoint. It is then possible to choose between the alternatives by estimating the most likely value of the uncertain factor and comparing this estimate to the breakeven value. 2. Sensitivity Analysis – a basic technique often employed when one or more factors are subject to uncertainty. Sensitivity, in general, means the relative magnitude of change in the measure of merit (such as PW or IRR) caused by one or more changes in estimated study factor values. Sometimes it is more specifically defined to mean the relative magnitude of the change in one or more factors that will reverse the decision among project alternatives or a decision about the economic acceptability of a project. The questions that sensitivity analysis attempts to resolve are these: (a) What is the behavior of the measure of merit (e.g., PW) to x% changes in each individual factor? (b) What is the amount of change in a particular factor that will cause a reversal in preference for an alternative? (c) What is the change in the measure of merit to selected combinations of changes in two or more factors? A sensitivity graph or a spiderplot allows the decision maker to visualize the effects of changes in the measure of merit. 3. Risk-adjusted MARRs – sometimes used to deal with estimation uncertainties. This method involves the use of higher MARRs for alternatives that are classified as highly uncertain and lower MARRs for projects for which there appear to be fewer uncertainties. 4. Reduction of the useful life of an alternative – the estimated project life of each alternative is reduced by a fixed percentage and each alternative is evaluated regarding its acceptability over only this reduced life span. Sample Problems 1. Suppose that there are two alternative electric motors that provide 100-hp output. An Alpha motor can be purchased for $12,500 and has an efficiency of 74%, an estimated useful life of 10 61 years, and estimated maintenance expenses of $500 per year. A Beta motor will cost $16,000 and has an efficiency of 92%, a useful life of 10 years, and annual maintenance expenses of $250. Annual taxes and insurance expenses on either motor will be 1 1/2 % of the investment. If the MARR is 15% per year, how many hours per year would the motors have to be operated at full load for the annual costs to be equal? Specify the range of operating hours for which each alternative would be beneficial. Assume that market values at the end of 10 years for both are negligible and that electricity costs $0.05 per kilowatt-hour. Ans. X = 508 hours per year; X<508, select Alpha; X>508, select Beta (based on Equivalent Uniform Annual Cost or EUAC metric) where X = number of hours of operation per year 2.The Universal Postal Service is considering the possibility of putting wind deflectors on the tops of 500 of their long-haul tractors. Three types of deflectors, with the following characteristics, are being considered (MARR = 10% per year): Capital Investment Drag Reduction Maintenance/year Useful Life Type A $1,000 20% $10 10 years Type B $400 10% $5 10 years Type C $1,200 25% $5 5 years If 5% in drag reduction means 2% in fuel savings per mile, how many miles do the tractors have to be driven per year before Type A deflector is favored over the other deflectors? Over what range of miles driven per year is Type C deflector the best choice? (Note: Fuel cost is expected to be $1.00 per gallon and average fuel consumption is five miles per gallon without the deflectors.) Ans. X≦12,831, select Type B; 12,831<X≦37,203, select Type A; X>37,203, select Type C where X = number of miles driven per year 3. The best (most likely) cash flow estimates for a new piece of equipment being considered for immediate installation are as follows: Capital Investment, I Revenues per year Expenses per year Market Value, MV Useful Life, N $11,500 5,000 2,000 1,000 6 years Because of the new technology built into this new machine, it is desired to investigate its PW over a range of ±40% changes in the estimates for (a) capital investment, (b) annual net cash flow, (c) market value, and (d) useful life. Based on these best estimates, plot a diagram that summarizes the sensitivity of present worth to percent deviation changes in each separate factor estimate when the MARR = 10% per year. (Note: In the Spiderplot, the PW value serves as the y-axis whereas the % deviation changes in factor estimate serves as the x-axis. Further note that the relative degree of sensitivity of the present worth to each factor is indicated by the slope of 62 the curves. The steeper the slope of the curve, the more sensitive the present worth is to the factor.) 4. The Atlas Corporation is considering two alternatives, both affected by uncertainty to different degrees, for increasing the recovery of a precious metal from its smelting process. The following data concern capital investment requirements and estimated annual savings of both alternatives: End of Year 0 1 2 3 4 Alternative P - $160,000 120,000 60,000 0 60,000 Alternative Q -$160,000 20,827 60,000 120,000 60,000 The firm’s MARR for its risk-free investments is 10% per year. Because of the technical considerations involved, Alternative P is thought to be more uncertain than Alternative Q. Therefore according to the company’s engineering economy handbook, the risk-adjusted MARR applied to P will be 20% per year and 17% per year for Alternative Q. Which alternative should be recommended? Ans. PW of Alt. P = $10,602; PW of Alt. Q = $8,575; Select Alt. P 5. Suppose that Atlas Corporation decided not to use risk-adjusted interest rates as a means of recognizing uncertainty in their engineering economy studies. Instead, they have decided to truncate the study period at 75% of the most likely estimate of useful life. Hence, all cash flows past the third year would be ignored in the analysis of alternatives. By using this method, should Alternative P or Q be selected when MARR = 10% per year? Ans. PW of Alt. P = -$1,324; PW of Alt. Q = -$1,324; None of the two should be selected 63